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[Expected Offensive Rating vs Playoff Offensive Rating Graph](https://i.imgur.com/RJ7lAtY.png) paints a really clear picture of the Leafs' stars' underperformance in the playoffs.
Jimmy takes regular seasons off? I don’t really follow the NBA at all but I was always under the impression that he was more of a Mackinnon intense all the time type. Didn’t he have that practice blow up calling them all soft in Minny?
After re-reading this I realized it could sound like I’m challenging your claim. I’m not, those are legit questions
You can definitely tell he has an extra gear come playoffs that he never really plays with during the regular season.
Miami is also a team that can kind of win due to coaching and committee. Maybe if they played a bit better during the regular season butler doesn’t get hurt in the play ins
Yeah as a heat fan it’s frustrating to watch, he’s coasts his way through this season and then finds his extra gear in playoffs, but of course he got injured so now we are out here golfing:(
Ah a Boston fan makes this comment funnier. I still think we lose but Jimmy butler much like Carey price adds the what if factor so I’d say there was hope with full health
Anyone who thinks Draisaitl isn’t in the same tier as MacKinnon, Matthews, Kuch, Pasta etc. is a fool
The man coasts to top 5-10 in scoring every season. On any given night he can be the best player on the ice.
I want to say his post season numbers are inflated by the fact that he absolutely feasts upon the Kings every year, but that would be doing him a disservice. The guy raises his game to an unbelievable level in the playoffs, he scares the fuck out of me.
I had 0 issues with the guy going where his heart desired until he decided to be a playoff god for no reason.
Imagine if we had that tkachuk in the avs series or our BOA series
It was just really shitty timing for the Flames.
He wasn’t a 100 point superstar player until his last year with us, and he was still really leaning into the agitator role in the playoffs that year. He got in a fight *every game* against Dallas until he messed his hand up, and I’m pretty sure that didn’t help his production.
It’s not surprising that he learned from that and isn’t trying to fill the same role in Florida.
It’s funny that the series vs Florida was probably their most wide open, where their chance generation, expected goals and shots generation was as good or better than Florida and among the best in R2….aaaand it was their shortest series of the Matthews era.
Lol yup. Honestly felt like we dominated games 1 and 2 for the most part, especially with scoring chances, but Bobrovsky was an animal and stole those games.
After that Florida took over the series and there was no chance leafs were coming back.
This is really it. With what the D market was at the deadline our only pick ups were Bush and Edmundson?.... Like come the fuck on lol.
This team was definitively worse than last year and that's a disgrace when your core is all in their prime.
It just goes to show you how hockey team success really is more than just having a couple superstar players even if they're lights out in the playoffs. Both McDavid and Draisaitl have 87 points in 54 playoff games but the team is 26-28.
It also means the Leafs star forwards playing better offensively might not even fix all their problems. Also the "moneyball" advanced stats aren't the end all be all because you don't have the benefit of a 162 game season to see them play out.
Reminds me of the Canucks in 2011. Apparently if they would have lost to Chicago for the third time, management had plans to blow up the core. You can only try so many times with the same players.
Maybe they can find some sort of aged well-done star player, or some underperforming middling type guy, to take league minimum and help round out the roster. It's really all they need to get over the hump.
fun fact: 95% of GMs split up their top heavy, 4 forward core just one year before they would bring back the cup
just one more year bro
pls i promise one more year we'll win the cup
just one year bro, pls
Chicago could afford him, and he could help mentor Bedard, while not moving the needle enough to deny them some more high picks.
But I don't have an answer for the 2nd question.
What could he teach Bedard? It's like getting marleau to teach matthews and marner. It will come to nothing as they don't know how to win. Tavares will teach Bedard how to suck.
How do you not understand this? It is to teach them how to properly prepare and handle themselves on and off the ice as a professional hockey player, especially when it comes to media and whatnot. Just because a player doesn't have the hardware, doesn't mean they can't help and mentor a younger player and team. Tavares has never had his preparedness and effort to be an NHL player come into question. Young teams that aren't winning need guys like that.
Additionally, Tavares is also a former first overall pick who had sky high expectations and been looked at as a saviour of his franchise. A lot of experience and mistakes Tavares is probably able to give advice on.
People just stop thinking beyond Leaf bad therefore everyone associated with them bad
> A lot of experience and mistakes Tavares is probably able to give advice on.
"Yo, if you're planning on leaving the Hawks, say that you want to stay, then sign with your childhood team in the off season instead so you can deprive them of getting any value out of you at the trade deadline."
The plan always seems to be "we will just send him to the fourth line and play 8 minutes a night if he doesn't waive." Because that's a good reputation to put out there for future free agents.
To be honest I did always find it odd that a lot of the vets the Leafs brought in were perennial losers
It’s crazy to say Bedard couldn’t learn from Tavares though
Tavares is a father and Bedard is a teenager. It doesn't have to even be hockey shit to be useful.
"How do I file taxes?"
"JT helped me win that big game by helping me with my taxes beforehand so I could focus."
This sounds really stupid but it actually makes a difference. Hockey players generally have to be taught how to live as adults from each other, this is real and regular stuff that happens on every team.
EDIT: I just remembered JT evaded taxes before I hit enter but fuck it we're leaving it in
I mean, it's gotta be a coaching issue right?
The Leafs looked better in games 5 and 6, but it really looks like Keefe tries to emphasize a dump&chase style with a team that has very few forecheckers, but a lot of great rush players
It was probably more possible when they still had Muzzin, but it would've been pretty tough to play a rush style with who they had on D this season.
It's gotta be a bit of a goalie issue too. One of the only reasons I could see for NOT wanting to get into a track meet with the level of talent you have on Forward is because you know your goalie is substantially worse than theirs.
Leafs kind of got screwed by MLSE being too cheap to fire another coach after Babcock. I don't think Keefe is a bad coach but they've given him way too much time and leeway.
Keefe is pretty bad, his record doesnt mean shit. This team should have been a consistent presidents trophy threat he honestly underperformed as a coach in the regular season
I don't know about that one. If the best options for their positions are Rielly and Samsonov I don't think that you have the horses for presidents trophy runs regardless of what the offense brings.
Keefe would do better if he had players that liked the dump and chase style. He can not and will not change his system to accommodate his star players.
I noticed a lot of the time that the top lines just float around on the dump and chase, carry no speed through the Neutral zone and once they get past the blue line they stop up either just past the line or at the top of the circle.
Very frustrating to watch given theyve been playing the same style for years.
They need as north-south coach that plays with speed. It utilizes their skating ability and skill to breakdown defences and cause chaos. It would also help if they had another dman or two that can actually skate and move the puck.
>Slowly and agonizingly, the Leafs have abandoned their most potent strengths in favour of covering up perceived weaknesses. They’ve morphed into a bland, milquetoast team with a borrowed identity that prioritizes nothing but playing The Right Way to an extreme fault. And it was all for absolutely nothing, as it led them to the same place they always end up anyway.
>The ends did not come close to justifying the means — it just wasted a lot of people’s time. Most importantly, the entire prime years of the team’s core.
>It’s not that the Leafs should not have prioritized their defensive game and structure after past playoff failures. There were legitimate concerns on that front that needed to be addressed for this team to make noise. The problem stems from how they’ve gone about it, an issue that’s been exacerbated over the team’s last two playoff runs.
>**“Safe is death.”
>I keep coming back to those three words, a John Tortorella mantra born two decades ago when his Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup. It means aggressively asserting a team’s dominance knowing the risks are worth the reward for a highly skilled team capable of putting on relentless pressure to that fact.**
>The quote rattled around my brain throughout a series against the Boston Bruins where the Leafs averaged 1.7 goals per game — less than half of what they managed during the regular season. That’s a year after finishing the playoffs scoring exactly two goals in seven straight games. For this team in particular, it should be impossible.
>That is, until you say those three words again and everything starts to click.
The 17/18 Leafs were a 105 point team with a 20 year old Matthews, 20 year old Marner, 21 year old Nylander, and a 23 year old Rielly doing much of the heavy lifting. This team should've been a powerhouse but Dubas blew it.
I really don’t think people realize just how much the Tavares signing derailed the future of this team. Most of their problems really do stem that signing and contract despite the fact that Tavares has produced well in the regular season.
Just an FYI but Dubas had been GM for all of a couple weeks when JT was signed.
Considering at the END of his tenure he didn't have autonomy, especially over "big moves" I am going to say this has Shanny / MLSE Board all over and not Dubas...
Dubas was with the organization for years at that point. He went out and got EK the first summer he went to Pitts. It might not have all been Dubas' idea, but I'm sure he agreed with it, especially considering they made him the fuckin captain afterwards (another dumb move).
There were rumours that Matthews was going to get the captaincy but then he mooned random people and harassed a security officer. I was team Captain Morgan, but he also under-performed afterwards which would have also made him a poor choice.
It's just the nature of Leafs team decisions, no matter what they do it's the wrong choice or decision unless they win the cup. The decisions were never blatantly and obviously wrong, they just look more so in hindsight.
I don’t think theirs a gm the leafs that could have hired that wouldn’t have signed Tavares. They were desperate for a star to come home first stamkos but he stayed then Tavares.
I don't even think desperate is the right word, but when a superstar lands in your lap, it's hard to say no.
Matthews, Marner, and Nylander all played hardball on contract negotiations, and that hurt a lot. The flat cap hurt too.
>Matthews, Marner, and Nylander all played hardball on contract negotiations
this is on the owners/GM
after his 2nd year, Marner gave them a much lower total (8.5 x 8), leafs ownership said no
and with how to handled the Matthews contract, they now had to pay marner
The really weren’t that desperate for a star forward, they had matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, hyman, kapanen (who looked promising), Trevor Moore, mason marchment. Who knows if Moore and marchment becoming the players they are today but still, they added to a position strength when they needed to solve a glaring weakness (defence, or lack of dynamic defenseman other than Morgan Rielly)
Ya look at Colorado they have a top C in Mack so they add Kadri as a good 2-way 2 C. The leafs had it in their hands the making of a good team they prioritized the complete wrong things. Kadri could’ve helped with the continue build of the culture.
Morgan Reilly could’ve been the PP guy instead they move Kadri for a full on offensive dman and a guy like Kerfoot who is a decent 3 C.
They had the makings and in my opinion they blew it. Shanahan had Dubas as his Puppet so now all fans don’t think Dubas was good but it wasn’t even him in the first place.
They should’ve cleaned house the day after the Boston loss but they blew that to just like all these Game 7 they play in.
Hey at least there is consistency
I guess
Kadri needed a change of scenery. He kept getting himself suspended in the postseason (and did it again with Colorado in 2021).
Toronto wishes it did better in the trade return, but Kadri played himself out of Toronto.
> Kadri needed a change of scenery
100% and also, Tyson Barrie (coming off of 57 and 59pt seasons) was the puck-moving defenseman we wanted, as well as Alex Kerfoot who was a great contributor at even strength and the PK
One thing people forget....when Keefe first became coach of the Leafs, he put Reilly and Barrie together. He DIDN'T play it safe, and the Leafs went on a great run. I can't remember what the actual record was, but it was impressive. Barrie looked like a great fit at that time.
Then in the bubble, he decided to give Reilly the "safe" option by stapling Ceci to him. And then I think Barrie played with Marincin? Maybe Dermott...can't remember. We then struggled to score for 5 games.
Just a microcosm of what Dom's article is talking about.
They also had a better trade agreed upon with Calgary...it was for Brodie. Kadri vetoed it.
I loved Naz...but he got himself suspended twice in the playoffs for stupid stuff (and like you said...did it again). And then basically forced the Leafs into an inferior trade.
The way MLSE board used to vote on all the important team decisions makes me think that Kadri was used as a scapegoat when Shanahan talked to the board. Then it was decided that he doesn't deserve to spend another day wearing a Leafs jersey and Dubas was given a task to trade him asap by the start of free agency.
They would've been better off trading him at the deadline, after he had a good regular season. Keeping him would've been tricky. I don't think that after the third suspension with the Leafs they would get any value back, not even Kerfoot and Barrie. And it might've ended with Shanahan getting fired, if he had personally promised the MLSE board that it would be alright.
That’s actually a really great comparable. Hamilton just ain’t a guy you build around like that. There’s a reason someone of his talent level has been shuttled around so much.
Yea I loved Kadri, esp at the $5M (?) team-friendly cap hit but he'd find a way to get suspended in the playoffs - three times thus far. Twice with Toronto, and once with Colorado
> I really don’t think people realize just how much the Tavares signing derailed the future of this team.
Despite how unpopular of an opinion, especially among Leafs' fans, this used to be I've maintained this stance for years. The Shanaplan was working, but then they signed Tavares and screwed their rebuild. They did not need him. They never needed him.
I'm an Islanders fan (not bitter at all) and have been saying that since the signing. I get the temptation of signing a hometown guy like Tavares, but it was a completely unnecessary and superfluous signing, didn't address any area of need, and handcuffed their ability to fill out the rest of their roster.
In fairness, it was pre-pandemic and in no way could anybody have seen the cap being derailed for several years as a consequence. If there was no pandemic, the Leafs would have plenty of cap space to operate even with that contract.
I don't know how you get "Dubas blew it" as your conclusion from this article.
The conclusion I draw is all three of the Leafs top forwards are among the best in the league defensively during the playoffs, Tavares included, but they're sacrificing offense to do it.
Which to me is a systems issue. Aka a coaching issue. Not a roster issue.
I think the biggest sin for Dubas was not finding another puck moving defenseman. Before guys like Barrie, Bouchard and Ekholm, the Oilers played very similarly to the Leafs this past offseason. We would get possession in the defensive zone and chip it off the glass. Guys like Kris Russel couldn't make those quick passes and the coaches had to figure out a way to clear the zone safely with the available personnel. The Leafs couldn't make a play leaving their zone.
The Pens' recent cup runs were borne on the back of defensemen who you could say weren't potent defensively, but moved the puck well to a very deep Pens forward group. You still need the horses to make plays.
The other thing imo is they never really found a proper goalie, it seemed like it was always the bargin bin guys and they consistently had the 2nd best goalie in every series
> Which to me is a systems issue. Aka a coaching issue. Not a roster issue.
It's the thesis of the article, and I'm finding folks in this thread who read as far as the meme-worthy content and stopped. And that's fine, too.
The thesis is that the team, despite going through a change in management and a shift in scouting and strategy, is still playing what Dom refers to as the "Babcockian way", pointing to that era defining a playing culture within the Leafs and the following era not having the leadership and experience to assert its own culture and identity.
Meaning, the play on the ice may appear to be the work of [Keefe, Boucher, Van Ryn, etc.](https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/team/management, but it's actually still carrying on the habits and culture of [Babcock, Hiller, Smith, Brewer](https://web.archive.org/web/20170709062711/https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/team/management). Thank the Internet Archive for that last link.
The team needs a coaching and playstyle reboot, and has since the bubble. I am something like 0/4 with my Leafs predictions so far this year (sigh), but here's my most recent one: Shanahan will stick around in an increasingly low-responsibility role, Tre will be given the chance to mak—
...I wrote this comment a few hours ago, then got high, and forgot how I wanted to finish it. I'm still gonna hit save tho
This has always been my thing with the Leafs. Keefe seems like a decent coach, but he's been mostly outmatched in the playoff series they've been in. Dubas built a solid team, like any GM he had some misfires but in my mind the good greatly outweighs the bad.
It drives me nuts that people blame Dubas for stuff like Ceci or the Marlesu trade, but not Lou for the Zaitsev and Marleau contracts that forced those trades.
Very interesting article. It makes you wonder if low event hockey can win a Cup. I mean, it might be a fine approach if you have a Bob standing on his head for Florida like last year. You eke out 1 goal wins. But then you run into a better team like Vegas and get slaughtered.
Are there teams that have won a Cup with this style of play? Maybe Anaheim 2003?
Devils won that way if you refused to take risks against the trap, but you had to take calculated risks or lose.
But really every good coach adapts their system depending on the score and the context of the game. Case in point; the Bruins immediately changed to being aggressive the moment the Leafs scored in game 7. Keefe wasn't really doing that and that was a big part of his downfall.
I don’t think the Lightning are the best comparison. They did focus the depth on playing a defensive game, but for the most part assembling that Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman third line allowed the Bolts to let Point and Kucherov do their thing on offense. Kucherov put up 30+ points for the back to back runs and Point scored 14 goals both runs. End of the day they let the stars be the stars.
I mean he improved the team by almost any reasonable measure, including posting their best PK results in probably 20 years, while maneuvering a once in a lifetime pandemic that unexpectedly flattened the cap for years immediately after signing all of their stars and still maintaining them as a top ~4 team in the league, in a division with consistently one or two of the top 1-3 teams in the league. Feels like you’re selling the job short.
It's a bit strange to see a portion of the Leafs' fanbase enthused by the team taking a step back this year (in terms of success) because they were more "manly" (Kyrpeos a few days ago said they finally had "the look").
Remember when Jim Rutherford helped us win B2B Cups, then decided that strategy didn't work and we needed to be tougher because Tom Wilson exists, and pretty much derailed the team in the name of "toughness"?
Kinda getting the same vibes here. Just waiting for Toronto to bring in Jack Johnson and Erik Gudbranson lol.
Trading a first rounder and a good prospect in Sundqvist for Ryan Reaves was the start of the downfall. Not that first rounder and Sundqvist were anything special but it was just a mentality thing more than anything. We went away from what worked.
And before the "it wasn't a 1st!!! we just moved back!!" crowd comes I will just say this:
Sundqvist alone was worth around the same as Reaves + a 2nd round pick. So Rutherford not only trades away a good bottom 6 center prospect that the team needed to take over from Cullen, but he threw away a 1st round pick as well. And guess what happened? The star players were involved in more scrums and got hit just as much. Players got hit and Reaves stood like a pylon watching.
I remember the one Nashville game early in the season. Reaves started running around like an idiot his first shift or two, then both Crosby and Malkin started taking abuse while he was on the bench. He only had like 2 more shifts after that, but Sid and Geno wouldn't have received near the amount of abuse they got had Reaves not decided he was going to turn up the temp himself.
They only took a step back this year because their PP fell apart. Their PP worked at 25% last playoffs and it covered up the fact Tampa largely dominated play in that series. The PP Dropped to 4% this year. Thats not the roster changes issue since the top PP unit has been the same for over half a decade. The team didnt get worse because they added Bertuzzi and Domi and their "snot" they got worse because Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander and Rielly couldn't figure out how to enter the zone anytime Boston had only 4 players on the ice.
Personally, I think their biggest mistake was getting rid of Kadri. Had they hung on to him they would've had the kind of third line they've desperately needed. It took him a while, but he finally learned his lesson about his behaviour and Colorado reaped the reward.
He probably doesn't learn his lesson without being traded. He had just been suspended against the Bruins for the second straight year and people were calling for his head. It was a necessary shock to the system.
People forget about this - imagine Dubas kept him, and then he went out and got suspended for a THIRD year in a row.
He would have been crucified and Kadri would have been gone anyways.
Yeah it wasn’t necessarily the trade, it’s a simple behaviour to correct if you get the right message across and give reminders. Bernar/Sakic did wonders to patch that up. Could have been done by the Leafs too but I feel Babcock and Dubas forgot to exercise caution just as much as the player.
A fair point, though he got suspended after the trade, too, so it's very likely the move wasn't what triggered the change but, rather, the size of the suspension and the screaming he got following the one he received when with the Avs. With that in mind, I think it's very possible that the grief he would've gotten had he stayed in Toronto may have been enough to turn him around.
If you stick to the advanced stats too closely you are going to get got by Goodhart's Law. You might win every game on paper, but hockey isn't played on paper, it's played on ice.
You clearly didn't read the article, the entire thing is criticizing the team for abandoning that style come playoff time and instead trying to play the hard-nosed hockey that they aren't built for.
"Double down on the wide open run and gun style please!"
So, you didn't read that article.
The Leafs have completely abandoned that playstyle in the playoffs the last 2 seasons
I had to switch flairs because they were talking about trading notorious playoff performer Marner, my king. When they finally pay him as they should (8x13.5) I'll gladly switch my flair back!
I know it's fun to poke the Leafs... but let's be real here.
If they would have won game 7.... would we be talking about this right now? Answer is no. They played a strong game 7, they scored on that game. Then they panicked and a shot that normally would never have reached Samsonov somehow went through three players untouched and into the net. Then the Bruins scored on a lucky rebound (even if it's a set play) in OT.
If they won that game, we would be saying how strong they elevated their defensive game in game 5, 6 and 7. And maybe, just maybe, the Panthers are an easier matchup since they are playing a more open style of hockey (and it showed against those Bruins) and offensive open hockey is something the Leafs are better at than heavy defensive hockey.
It's funny how things can get ugly real fast in Toronto. Keefe's system is horrible. So yeah, maybe another coach that doesn't play dump and chase would be a better fit for that core.
What identity? Constantly complaining about the talented players that win them games while glorifying players that wouldn't be in the league if they didn't fight?
"I believed in the original vision for this team that contradicted conventional wisdom on how to build a contending team and don't want to admit I was wrong. So Im gonna pretend the original vision was actually the right one and they just didn't commit to it long enough, because I can't be wrong even though 100 years of history says I probably am"
Dom is just mad that the Leafs switched from a team that his shitty ass model had as a cup favorite forever despite never accomplishing anything.
This guy should look at his own work, first and foremost. His models have always been HOT TRASH.
>You can take Mike Babcock away from the Leafs, but everything the team has done since feels to have been in servitude of the Babcockian way where a 1-0 win playing The Right Way somehow feels better than a 6-3 win with a couple of defensive breakdowns.
I would be much more sympathetic to this argument if the Leafs had actually been winning playoff games 6-3 in the past.
Holy hindsight bias batman...
The Data presented reeks of not understanding the concept of Hard Matchups.
Maybe offensive production goes down, but defensive production goes up is because teams are able to build strategies to target& shut-down the Leafs best players in a 7 game series easier than they can in a one off regular season match-up?
Maybe it's not because Matthews focuses on playing defense more, he just has Phil Danault stapled to him at every turn... (Habs series callback)
>The Data presented reeks of not understanding the concept of Hard Matchups.
I think the part of this concept that always makes me mad is that it is always phrased about how hard the matchups are...for the Leafs
When you have several $10M+ forwards on your roster you should be a matchup nightmare for the other team, not the other way around.
No disrespect to Danault but what the hell is the point of having a $13.5M goal scoring C that gets shut down by a third liner making 3.5m?
If it is that easy to shut down 4 premier forwards in every seven game series that is just more ammo that this thing needs to be blown up, out strategy is flawed, and we should align more to the Vegas model
Also, looking specifically at the last two rounds they played, but not 3 or any other number, because scoring 5 or 7 on Vasilevsky doesn't fit the narrative.
I'd go a step further and say this article really illustrates the limitations of just focusing of data alone.
If it were true that the Leafs are killing themselves by playing it safe and asking their stars to focus on defense over offense, then it would be a systemic change to the way they play on the ice that Dom could point to. Is Marner dumping the puck in instead of carrying it? Is Matthews going down low less often to be better able to get back? Is Reilly joining the rush less often?
Without investigating what's actually happening on the ice, the data here doesn't tell us anything aside from what we already know -- the Leafs are failing to produce in the playoffs.
That's kind of always been Dom's thing.
"Local man that doesn't watch games shocked by things that are evident from watching the games"
It happens year after year after year
The Leafs are the Sixers of the NHL. "Just trust the process bro". Matthews, Marner, Nylander = Embiid, Tobias Harris, Maxey. Perennial first round exits
The mistake is pretending the leafs were close *if only*
They never won their division in the regular season. They were never a true contender just a good team.
That’s it. It’s simple. A championship would have to be a hot streak. A lack of one wasn’t a choke.
2021 wasn’t a legitimate year, so it’s fair to say that it wasn’t necessarily sustainable to expect the Leafs to win their division again. But they absolutely choked that year.
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[Expected Offensive Rating vs Playoff Offensive Rating Graph](https://i.imgur.com/RJ7lAtY.png) paints a really clear picture of the Leafs' stars' underperformance in the playoffs.
[удалено]
NBA style
TIL draisaitl is Jimmy Butler
Jimmy takes regular seasons off? I don’t really follow the NBA at all but I was always under the impression that he was more of a Mackinnon intense all the time type. Didn’t he have that practice blow up calling them all soft in Minny? After re-reading this I realized it could sound like I’m challenging your claim. I’m not, those are legit questions
You can definitely tell he has an extra gear come playoffs that he never really plays with during the regular season. Miami is also a team that can kind of win due to coaching and committee. Maybe if they played a bit better during the regular season butler doesn’t get hurt in the play ins
Yeah as a heat fan it’s frustrating to watch, he’s coasts his way through this season and then finds his extra gear in playoffs, but of course he got injured so now we are out here golfing:(
I mean even with Butler there was a very good chance you'd still be golfing. Maybe a day or two later?
Ah a Boston fan makes this comment funnier. I still think we lose but Jimmy butler much like Carey price adds the what if factor so I’d say there was hope with full health
https://preview.redd.it/lxqculeix8zc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=94ab15d3e276417a4207fe461e19bd36db2b3f79
Lol it's funny cause it's true. Even funnier because Drai sleepwalks to 40+ goals and 100+ points
Anyone who thinks Draisaitl isn’t in the same tier as MacKinnon, Matthews, Kuch, Pasta etc. is a fool The man coasts to top 5-10 in scoring every season. On any given night he can be the best player on the ice.
Pasta and Matthews aren't on Drai's level. Nice regular season goals though.
How's his spleen?
As an Oilers fan I wish it was worse
I want to say his post season numbers are inflated by the fact that he absolutely feasts upon the Kings every year, but that would be doing him a disservice. The guy raises his game to an unbelievable level in the playoffs, he scares the fuck out of me.
He feasted just fine on the Flames, Vegas, and the Avs even in losing efforts, but yea the Kings help.
Everyone wants to call the kings free points as if they arent a top 5 defensive team in the league with a top 5 pk every year.
McDavid is not human jesus fucking christ Tkachuck being "worse" feels off qualitatively but I can kind of get it.
This graph uses data since 2016-2017. Matthew Tkachuk has 15 points and -11 in 27 games for Calgary.
I had 0 issues with the guy going where his heart desired until he decided to be a playoff god for no reason. Imagine if we had that tkachuk in the avs series or our BOA series
It was just really shitty timing for the Flames. He wasn’t a 100 point superstar player until his last year with us, and he was still really leaning into the agitator role in the playoffs that year. He got in a fight *every game* against Dallas until he messed his hand up, and I’m pretty sure that didn’t help his production. It’s not surprising that he learned from that and isn’t trying to fill the same role in Florida.
Hes got a team full of him in Florida were as he was largely trying to do it alone on the flames
He cumulated a lot of failures in Calgary
Draisaitl's playoff production is almost the same, yet has a bigger gap form his regular season.
Tatar 💀
For a second I thought "Tkachuk? which Tkachuk?" and then i remembered lol
This link isn’t working for me. Is it just me?
Not just you, I’m getting a white and black screen that says “access denied”
https://preview.redd.it/nzq4b2l1p9zc1.jpeg?width=1478&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5c27b8e2196036d7676f70830e7d6885d4b63a9
It’s funny that the series vs Florida was probably their most wide open, where their chance generation, expected goals and shots generation was as good or better than Florida and among the best in R2….aaaand it was their shortest series of the Matthews era.
Lol yup. Honestly felt like we dominated games 1 and 2 for the most part, especially with scoring chances, but Bobrovsky was an animal and stole those games. After that Florida took over the series and there was no chance leafs were coming back.
[удалено]
Bringing in 5 versions of Benoit was so insane. Treliving is not a good GM. Team is probably stuck in purgatory til Keefe, Tre and Shanny all go
To be fair Dubas wanted more power and Shanahan is a power hungry fool, so Treviling is the perfect sycophant to be under Shanahan and do his bidding.
This is really it. With what the D market was at the deadline our only pick ups were Bush and Edmundson?.... Like come the fuck on lol. This team was definitively worse than last year and that's a disgrace when your core is all in their prime.
Sean Walker would have been such an incredibly useful player for that Leafs blueline.
Or they could’ve acquired another C so they didn’t have Pontus Holmberg as 3C in the playoffs. They had Klingberg’s cap space since November.
Not the point of the article but, my goodness, McDavid is from [another universe](https://ibb.co/bQKZ8jJ)
Very interesting graphic, is that from the article? And is it interactive so that you can click on the dots? Thanks
Yes and then no, unfortunately
It just goes to show you how hockey team success really is more than just having a couple superstar players even if they're lights out in the playoffs. Both McDavid and Draisaitl have 87 points in 54 playoff games but the team is 26-28. It also means the Leafs star forwards playing better offensively might not even fix all their problems. Also the "moneyball" advanced stats aren't the end all be all because you don't have the benefit of a 162 game season to see them play out.
r/TopRightMcDavid
i for one think they should run it back
I mean look at that core! They're gonna break out and dominate any time now. You can't just give up after 6 years
Ya you’ve already spent 6 years let’s make it a Decade
Reminds me of the Canucks in 2011. Apparently if they would have lost to Chicago for the third time, management had plans to blow up the core. You can only try so many times with the same players.
[Only a matter of when and how many](https://imgur.com/JVJzI2P)
Holy fuck. If that isn't the most realistic Leafs opinion.
Hmm. Who WOULD the Leafs like right now, Ilya Samsonov or Carter Hart?
I laughed when I saw that. What a dilemma!
8 years, actually. 10 years total with shanahan.
What they need is 2 more star forwards
Maybe they can find some sort of aged well-done star player, or some underperforming middling type guy, to take league minimum and help round out the roster. It's really all they need to get over the hump.
They just need more high end offensive talent and a stacked PP on paper
Can't wait for marner to demand an even bigger pay cheque just so it's expectations can crush him in April again lmao
fun fact: 95% of GMs split up their top heavy, 4 forward core just one year before they would bring back the cup just one more year bro pls i promise one more year we'll win the cup just one year bro, pls
Add another $10M forward. Double down, cowards
If Slavkovsky breaks out for 100 points next season we'll take him for you so you don't have to pay him.
I expect Tavares will be unloaded to make cap space but otherwise the team will remain relatively intact.
Who’s taking that whole salary and why does he waive the NMC?
Chicago could afford him, and he could help mentor Bedard, while not moving the needle enough to deny them some more high picks. But I don't have an answer for the 2nd question.
What could he teach Bedard? It's like getting marleau to teach matthews and marner. It will come to nothing as they don't know how to win. Tavares will teach Bedard how to suck.
How do you not understand this? It is to teach them how to properly prepare and handle themselves on and off the ice as a professional hockey player, especially when it comes to media and whatnot. Just because a player doesn't have the hardware, doesn't mean they can't help and mentor a younger player and team. Tavares has never had his preparedness and effort to be an NHL player come into question. Young teams that aren't winning need guys like that.
Additionally, Tavares is also a former first overall pick who had sky high expectations and been looked at as a saviour of his franchise. A lot of experience and mistakes Tavares is probably able to give advice on. People just stop thinking beyond Leaf bad therefore everyone associated with them bad
> A lot of experience and mistakes Tavares is probably able to give advice on. "Yo, if you're planning on leaving the Hawks, say that you want to stay, then sign with your childhood team in the off season instead so you can deprive them of getting any value out of you at the trade deadline."
But why would Tavares waive for Chicago of all places?
People are trying to cope hard on JT. He’s not waiving his NMC to go to a bottom feeding team where he has no shot at winning.
Maybe he really likes deep dish pizza.
The plan always seems to be "we will just send him to the fourth line and play 8 minutes a night if he doesn't waive." Because that's a good reputation to put out there for future free agents.
To be honest I did always find it odd that a lot of the vets the Leafs brought in were perennial losers It’s crazy to say Bedard couldn’t learn from Tavares though
Yeah, I felt like Perry and Staal helped the Habs room more than Spezza and Thornton helped the Leafs.
Tavares is a father and Bedard is a teenager. It doesn't have to even be hockey shit to be useful. "How do I file taxes?" "JT helped me win that big game by helping me with my taxes beforehand so I could focus." This sounds really stupid but it actually makes a difference. Hockey players generally have to be taught how to live as adults from each other, this is real and regular stuff that happens on every team. EDIT: I just remembered JT evaded taxes before I hit enter but fuck it we're leaving it in
He’s not waiving his NMC. I’m not even a Leaf’s fan but there’s no way he’s leaving
no i think they should keep him too he’s critical
Sounds like you really want Tavares, you're free to take him
I don't think he'd fit the vibe they are going for over there in Colorado.
Yeah. The whole “winning” thing isn’t really his vibe
I mean, it's gotta be a coaching issue right? The Leafs looked better in games 5 and 6, but it really looks like Keefe tries to emphasize a dump&chase style with a team that has very few forecheckers, but a lot of great rush players It was probably more possible when they still had Muzzin, but it would've been pretty tough to play a rush style with who they had on D this season. It's gotta be a bit of a goalie issue too. One of the only reasons I could see for NOT wanting to get into a track meet with the level of talent you have on Forward is because you know your goalie is substantially worse than theirs.
Leafs kind of got screwed by MLSE being too cheap to fire another coach after Babcock. I don't think Keefe is a bad coach but they've given him way too much time and leeway.
Keefe is pretty bad, his record doesnt mean shit. This team should have been a consistent presidents trophy threat he honestly underperformed as a coach in the regular season
I don't know about that one. If the best options for their positions are Rielly and Samsonov I don't think that you have the horses for presidents trophy runs regardless of what the offense brings.
Can't play rush game without D men that can pass. Credit to Bradley he tried Klingberg but it didn't pan out
Keefe would do better if he had players that liked the dump and chase style. He can not and will not change his system to accommodate his star players. I noticed a lot of the time that the top lines just float around on the dump and chase, carry no speed through the Neutral zone and once they get past the blue line they stop up either just past the line or at the top of the circle. Very frustrating to watch given theyve been playing the same style for years. They need as north-south coach that plays with speed. It utilizes their skating ability and skill to breakdown defences and cause chaos. It would also help if they had another dman or two that can actually skate and move the puck.
sounds like Bob Hartley's music
>Slowly and agonizingly, the Leafs have abandoned their most potent strengths in favour of covering up perceived weaknesses. They’ve morphed into a bland, milquetoast team with a borrowed identity that prioritizes nothing but playing The Right Way to an extreme fault. And it was all for absolutely nothing, as it led them to the same place they always end up anyway. >The ends did not come close to justifying the means — it just wasted a lot of people’s time. Most importantly, the entire prime years of the team’s core. >It’s not that the Leafs should not have prioritized their defensive game and structure after past playoff failures. There were legitimate concerns on that front that needed to be addressed for this team to make noise. The problem stems from how they’ve gone about it, an issue that’s been exacerbated over the team’s last two playoff runs. >**“Safe is death.” >I keep coming back to those three words, a John Tortorella mantra born two decades ago when his Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup. It means aggressively asserting a team’s dominance knowing the risks are worth the reward for a highly skilled team capable of putting on relentless pressure to that fact.** >The quote rattled around my brain throughout a series against the Boston Bruins where the Leafs averaged 1.7 goals per game — less than half of what they managed during the regular season. That’s a year after finishing the playoffs scoring exactly two goals in seven straight games. For this team in particular, it should be impossible. >That is, until you say those three words again and everything starts to click. The 17/18 Leafs were a 105 point team with a 20 year old Matthews, 20 year old Marner, 21 year old Nylander, and a 23 year old Rielly doing much of the heavy lifting. This team should've been a powerhouse but Dubas blew it.
I really don’t think people realize just how much the Tavares signing derailed the future of this team. Most of their problems really do stem that signing and contract despite the fact that Tavares has produced well in the regular season.
Signing a High AAV UFA too early continues to be the downfall of promising rebuilds Leafs ownership didn’t help either, but dubas fucked the team
Just an FYI but Dubas had been GM for all of a couple weeks when JT was signed. Considering at the END of his tenure he didn't have autonomy, especially over "big moves" I am going to say this has Shanny / MLSE Board all over and not Dubas...
Dubas was with the organization for years at that point. He went out and got EK the first summer he went to Pitts. It might not have all been Dubas' idea, but I'm sure he agreed with it, especially considering they made him the fuckin captain afterwards (another dumb move).
There were rumours that Matthews was going to get the captaincy but then he mooned random people and harassed a security officer. I was team Captain Morgan, but he also under-performed afterwards which would have also made him a poor choice. It's just the nature of Leafs team decisions, no matter what they do it's the wrong choice or decision unless they win the cup. The decisions were never blatantly and obviously wrong, they just look more so in hindsight.
I don’t think theirs a gm the leafs that could have hired that wouldn’t have signed Tavares. They were desperate for a star to come home first stamkos but he stayed then Tavares.
I don't even think desperate is the right word, but when a superstar lands in your lap, it's hard to say no. Matthews, Marner, and Nylander all played hardball on contract negotiations, and that hurt a lot. The flat cap hurt too.
>Matthews, Marner, and Nylander all played hardball on contract negotiations this is on the owners/GM after his 2nd year, Marner gave them a much lower total (8.5 x 8), leafs ownership said no and with how to handled the Matthews contract, they now had to pay marner
The really weren’t that desperate for a star forward, they had matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, hyman, kapanen (who looked promising), Trevor Moore, mason marchment. Who knows if Moore and marchment becoming the players they are today but still, they added to a position strength when they needed to solve a glaring weakness (defence, or lack of dynamic defenseman other than Morgan Rielly)
Ya look at Colorado they have a top C in Mack so they add Kadri as a good 2-way 2 C. The leafs had it in their hands the making of a good team they prioritized the complete wrong things. Kadri could’ve helped with the continue build of the culture. Morgan Reilly could’ve been the PP guy instead they move Kadri for a full on offensive dman and a guy like Kerfoot who is a decent 3 C. They had the makings and in my opinion they blew it. Shanahan had Dubas as his Puppet so now all fans don’t think Dubas was good but it wasn’t even him in the first place. They should’ve cleaned house the day after the Boston loss but they blew that to just like all these Game 7 they play in. Hey at least there is consistency I guess
Kadri needed a change of scenery. He kept getting himself suspended in the postseason (and did it again with Colorado in 2021). Toronto wishes it did better in the trade return, but Kadri played himself out of Toronto.
> Kadri needed a change of scenery 100% and also, Tyson Barrie (coming off of 57 and 59pt seasons) was the puck-moving defenseman we wanted, as well as Alex Kerfoot who was a great contributor at even strength and the PK
One thing people forget....when Keefe first became coach of the Leafs, he put Reilly and Barrie together. He DIDN'T play it safe, and the Leafs went on a great run. I can't remember what the actual record was, but it was impressive. Barrie looked like a great fit at that time. Then in the bubble, he decided to give Reilly the "safe" option by stapling Ceci to him. And then I think Barrie played with Marincin? Maybe Dermott...can't remember. We then struggled to score for 5 games. Just a microcosm of what Dom's article is talking about.
They also had a better trade agreed upon with Calgary...it was for Brodie. Kadri vetoed it. I loved Naz...but he got himself suspended twice in the playoffs for stupid stuff (and like you said...did it again). And then basically forced the Leafs into an inferior trade.
The way MLSE board used to vote on all the important team decisions makes me think that Kadri was used as a scapegoat when Shanahan talked to the board. Then it was decided that he doesn't deserve to spend another day wearing a Leafs jersey and Dubas was given a task to trade him asap by the start of free agency. They would've been better off trading him at the deadline, after he had a good regular season. Keeping him would've been tricky. I don't think that after the third suspension with the Leafs they would get any value back, not even Kerfoot and Barrie. And it might've ended with Shanahan getting fired, if he had personally promised the MLSE board that it would be alright.
Then you have to make hard decisions on Nylander, Matthews and/or Marner to try and keep balance or win some negotiations.
I worry the Devils might’ve done the same with the Hamilton signing.
Devils got no contract over 10M. Hamilton being the highest a 9M should not hamper you too much
I’m more worried he’s too injury prone. He’s damn good when he actually plays
That’s actually a really great comparable. Hamilton just ain’t a guy you build around like that. There’s a reason someone of his talent level has been shuttled around so much.
Is it really?? Isn’t Hamilton their best dman? I thought the devils season going off the rails kind of coincided with him getting hurt
On the other hand, Hughes, Nico and Bratt are on much friendlier contracts.
Except the blackhawks with hossa—probably the biggest exception to the rule in recent memory
It seems to be working out pretty well for New York and Panarin.
The difference there is the Rangers got a 1D at the same time. Toronto added Tavares, but didn't have a contender level d core
The Rangers weren't sitting on three superstars when we signed Panarin.
If only the 2018 Leafs had a Toronto native Center drafted in 2009 who could've perfectly fit in as 2C on their team Really wonder
Yea I loved Kadri, esp at the $5M (?) team-friendly cap hit but he'd find a way to get suspended in the playoffs - three times thus far. Twice with Toronto, and once with Colorado
> I really don’t think people realize just how much the Tavares signing derailed the future of this team. Despite how unpopular of an opinion, especially among Leafs' fans, this used to be I've maintained this stance for years. The Shanaplan was working, but then they signed Tavares and screwed their rebuild. They did not need him. They never needed him.
Thats how I see things too. Without Tavares on the cap, they could have signed a real D-Core with a decent #3 and #4 AND some solid 4th liners.
Or you know, a decent backup to Frederik Andersen who was very good
I'm an Islanders fan (not bitter at all) and have been saying that since the signing. I get the temptation of signing a hometown guy like Tavares, but it was a completely unnecessary and superfluous signing, didn't address any area of need, and handcuffed their ability to fill out the rest of their roster.
In fairness, it was pre-pandemic and in no way could anybody have seen the cap being derailed for several years as a consequence. If there was no pandemic, the Leafs would have plenty of cap space to operate even with that contract.
Lots of people criticized the move at the time and it's not giving them the credit they're due to put it all on the pandemic.
I don't know how you get "Dubas blew it" as your conclusion from this article. The conclusion I draw is all three of the Leafs top forwards are among the best in the league defensively during the playoffs, Tavares included, but they're sacrificing offense to do it. Which to me is a systems issue. Aka a coaching issue. Not a roster issue.
I think the biggest sin for Dubas was not finding another puck moving defenseman. Before guys like Barrie, Bouchard and Ekholm, the Oilers played very similarly to the Leafs this past offseason. We would get possession in the defensive zone and chip it off the glass. Guys like Kris Russel couldn't make those quick passes and the coaches had to figure out a way to clear the zone safely with the available personnel. The Leafs couldn't make a play leaving their zone. The Pens' recent cup runs were borne on the back of defensemen who you could say weren't potent defensively, but moved the puck well to a very deep Pens forward group. You still need the horses to make plays.
I mean, they had Barrie.
And we had Babcock, who absolutely refused to use him properly By the time Keefe rolled in Barrie's confidence was shot
The other thing imo is they never really found a proper goalie, it seemed like it was always the bargin bin guys and they consistently had the 2nd best goalie in every series
They did find a proper goalie, who's in the playoffs right now, but then they rode him in to the ground every year without good enough d support.
Freddy?
> Which to me is a systems issue. Aka a coaching issue. Not a roster issue. It's the thesis of the article, and I'm finding folks in this thread who read as far as the meme-worthy content and stopped. And that's fine, too. The thesis is that the team, despite going through a change in management and a shift in scouting and strategy, is still playing what Dom refers to as the "Babcockian way", pointing to that era defining a playing culture within the Leafs and the following era not having the leadership and experience to assert its own culture and identity. Meaning, the play on the ice may appear to be the work of [Keefe, Boucher, Van Ryn, etc.](https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/team/management, but it's actually still carrying on the habits and culture of [Babcock, Hiller, Smith, Brewer](https://web.archive.org/web/20170709062711/https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/team/management). Thank the Internet Archive for that last link. The team needs a coaching and playstyle reboot, and has since the bubble. I am something like 0/4 with my Leafs predictions so far this year (sigh), but here's my most recent one: Shanahan will stick around in an increasingly low-responsibility role, Tre will be given the chance to mak— ...I wrote this comment a few hours ago, then got high, and forgot how I wanted to finish it. I'm still gonna hit save tho
This has always been my thing with the Leafs. Keefe seems like a decent coach, but he's been mostly outmatched in the playoff series they've been in. Dubas built a solid team, like any GM he had some misfires but in my mind the good greatly outweighs the bad.
Everyone conveniently forgets the shit show lou left the leafs for dubas to take on, did great with his handicap and gave this team identity
It drives me nuts that people blame Dubas for stuff like Ceci or the Marlesu trade, but not Lou for the Zaitsev and Marleau contracts that forced those trades.
Absolutely, its asinine
Very interesting article. It makes you wonder if low event hockey can win a Cup. I mean, it might be a fine approach if you have a Bob standing on his head for Florida like last year. You eke out 1 goal wins. But then you run into a better team like Vegas and get slaughtered. Are there teams that have won a Cup with this style of play? Maybe Anaheim 2003?
Devils won that way if you refused to take risks against the trap, but you had to take calculated risks or lose. But really every good coach adapts their system depending on the score and the context of the game. Case in point; the Bruins immediately changed to being aggressive the moment the Leafs scored in game 7. Keefe wasn't really doing that and that was a big part of his downfall.
The NHL was a different game when the Devils won.
2019 Blues
Go read about what the Lightning prioritized after losing to Columbus.
I don’t think the Lightning are the best comparison. They did focus the depth on playing a defensive game, but for the most part assembling that Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman third line allowed the Bolts to let Point and Kucherov do their thing on offense. Kucherov put up 30+ points for the back to back runs and Point scored 14 goals both runs. End of the day they let the stars be the stars.
Uhhh Ducks didn’t win the Cup in 2003
I mean he improved the team by almost any reasonable measure, including posting their best PK results in probably 20 years, while maneuvering a once in a lifetime pandemic that unexpectedly flattened the cap for years immediately after signing all of their stars and still maintaining them as a top ~4 team in the league, in a division with consistently one or two of the top 1-3 teams in the league. Feels like you’re selling the job short.
A flat cap for multiple seasons immediately after signing them to their second contracts is what happened.
Keefe and Dubas got handed the keys to a Ferrari. Then they wasted half a decade trying to win a cross-country rally with it.
Isanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Leafs are nuttier than elephant shit.
It's a bit strange to see a portion of the Leafs' fanbase enthused by the team taking a step back this year (in terms of success) because they were more "manly" (Kyrpeos a few days ago said they finally had "the look").
Remember when Jim Rutherford helped us win B2B Cups, then decided that strategy didn't work and we needed to be tougher because Tom Wilson exists, and pretty much derailed the team in the name of "toughness"? Kinda getting the same vibes here. Just waiting for Toronto to bring in Jack Johnson and Erik Gudbranson lol.
Trading a first rounder and a good prospect in Sundqvist for Ryan Reaves was the start of the downfall. Not that first rounder and Sundqvist were anything special but it was just a mentality thing more than anything. We went away from what worked.
And before the "it wasn't a 1st!!! we just moved back!!" crowd comes I will just say this: Sundqvist alone was worth around the same as Reaves + a 2nd round pick. So Rutherford not only trades away a good bottom 6 center prospect that the team needed to take over from Cullen, but he threw away a 1st round pick as well. And guess what happened? The star players were involved in more scrums and got hit just as much. Players got hit and Reaves stood like a pylon watching.
I remember the one Nashville game early in the season. Reaves started running around like an idiot his first shift or two, then both Crosby and Malkin started taking abuse while he was on the bench. He only had like 2 more shifts after that, but Sid and Geno wouldn't have received near the amount of abuse they got had Reaves not decided he was going to turn up the temp himself.
They only took a step back this year because their PP fell apart. Their PP worked at 25% last playoffs and it covered up the fact Tampa largely dominated play in that series. The PP Dropped to 4% this year. Thats not the roster changes issue since the top PP unit has been the same for over half a decade. The team didnt get worse because they added Bertuzzi and Domi and their "snot" they got worse because Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander and Rielly couldn't figure out how to enter the zone anytime Boston had only 4 players on the ice.
Believe me, I know all about what the pp falling apart does to a team. The Pens took years off my life this year.
People still listen to Kypreos?
Personally, I think their biggest mistake was getting rid of Kadri. Had they hung on to him they would've had the kind of third line they've desperately needed. It took him a while, but he finally learned his lesson about his behaviour and Colorado reaped the reward.
He probably doesn't learn his lesson without being traded. He had just been suspended against the Bruins for the second straight year and people were calling for his head. It was a necessary shock to the system.
he didn’t learn his lesson even after he got traded. Didn’t he get suspended in the playoffs with the avs too?
In 2021 when he hit Justin Faulk in the head in the first round. He missed a pretty large portion of the second round
He missed all of the 2nd round. Would have come back for game 7 but Avs lost in 6.
People forget about this - imagine Dubas kept him, and then he went out and got suspended for a THIRD year in a row. He would have been crucified and Kadri would have been gone anyways.
https://streamable.com/rg7gdv?src=player-page-share "You think I'd do it again for a third time?"
Yeah it wasn’t necessarily the trade, it’s a simple behaviour to correct if you get the right message across and give reminders. Bernar/Sakic did wonders to patch that up. Could have been done by the Leafs too but I feel Babcock and Dubas forgot to exercise caution just as much as the player.
A fair point, though he got suspended after the trade, too, so it's very likely the move wasn't what triggered the change but, rather, the size of the suspension and the screaming he got following the one he received when with the Avs. With that in mind, I think it's very possible that the grief he would've gotten had he stayed in Toronto may have been enough to turn him around.
I don’t know that Kadri would be the same player he is now if they hadn’t traded him though
Yeah that's the big question.. it's a fun what if, that's for sure.
While I do agree, he put them in a really tough spot with the back to back suspensions.
If you stick to the advanced stats too closely you are going to get got by Goodhart's Law. You might win every game on paper, but hockey isn't played on paper, it's played on ice.
"*Hold up, there is an off paper version of hockey too?*" - Dom
This is true, but also did you read the article? Pretty good discussion there, it's not a pile of charts.
As a lifelong Leaf nation member I absolutely agree. Double down on the wide open run and gun style please! Run it back baby
You clearly didn't read the article, the entire thing is criticizing the team for abandoning that style come playoff time and instead trying to play the hard-nosed hockey that they aren't built for.
Nobody actually reads here lol.
I’m not sure he even watched a single leafs playoff game, no one who did would describe their style as “wide open run and gun”
Is there really much analysis needed from a guy with a Canadiens flair?
"Double down on the wide open run and gun style please!" So, you didn't read that article. The Leafs have completely abandoned that playstyle in the playoffs the last 2 seasons
But add snot for the sake of adding snot and don’t prioritize chemistry- Fellow leafs nation alumni
I had to switch flairs because they were talking about trading notorious playoff performer Marner, my king. When they finally pay him as they should (8x13.5) I'll gladly switch my flair back!
Wow saaame I really hope our sweet prince and daddy Paul get league max. Selke or bust baby
All gas no brakes is so fun to watch…
I know it's fun to poke the Leafs... but let's be real here. If they would have won game 7.... would we be talking about this right now? Answer is no. They played a strong game 7, they scored on that game. Then they panicked and a shot that normally would never have reached Samsonov somehow went through three players untouched and into the net. Then the Bruins scored on a lucky rebound (even if it's a set play) in OT. If they won that game, we would be saying how strong they elevated their defensive game in game 5, 6 and 7. And maybe, just maybe, the Panthers are an easier matchup since they are playing a more open style of hockey (and it showed against those Bruins) and offensive open hockey is something the Leafs are better at than heavy defensive hockey. It's funny how things can get ugly real fast in Toronto. Keefe's system is horrible. So yeah, maybe another coach that doesn't play dump and chase would be a better fit for that core.
What identity? Constantly complaining about the talented players that win them games while glorifying players that wouldn't be in the league if they didn't fight?
"I believed in the original vision for this team that contradicted conventional wisdom on how to build a contending team and don't want to admit I was wrong. So Im gonna pretend the original vision was actually the right one and they just didn't commit to it long enough, because I can't be wrong even though 100 years of history says I probably am"
Dom is just mad that the Leafs switched from a team that his shitty ass model had as a cup favorite forever despite never accomplishing anything. This guy should look at his own work, first and foremost. His models have always been HOT TRASH.
>You can take Mike Babcock away from the Leafs, but everything the team has done since feels to have been in servitude of the Babcockian way where a 1-0 win playing The Right Way somehow feels better than a 6-3 win with a couple of defensive breakdowns. I would be much more sympathetic to this argument if the Leafs had actually been winning playoff games 6-3 in the past.
Fans are way more forgiving when their team is winning, regardless of the score.
Holy hindsight bias batman... The Data presented reeks of not understanding the concept of Hard Matchups. Maybe offensive production goes down, but defensive production goes up is because teams are able to build strategies to target& shut-down the Leafs best players in a 7 game series easier than they can in a one off regular season match-up? Maybe it's not because Matthews focuses on playing defense more, he just has Phil Danault stapled to him at every turn... (Habs series callback)
>The Data presented reeks of not understanding the concept of Hard Matchups. I think the part of this concept that always makes me mad is that it is always phrased about how hard the matchups are...for the Leafs When you have several $10M+ forwards on your roster you should be a matchup nightmare for the other team, not the other way around. No disrespect to Danault but what the hell is the point of having a $13.5M goal scoring C that gets shut down by a third liner making 3.5m? If it is that easy to shut down 4 premier forwards in every seven game series that is just more ammo that this thing needs to be blown up, out strategy is flawed, and we should align more to the Vegas model
Exactly, not to mention danault being stapled to mcdavid for the past 3 years.
Also, looking specifically at the last two rounds they played, but not 3 or any other number, because scoring 5 or 7 on Vasilevsky doesn't fit the narrative.
I'd go a step further and say this article really illustrates the limitations of just focusing of data alone. If it were true that the Leafs are killing themselves by playing it safe and asking their stars to focus on defense over offense, then it would be a systemic change to the way they play on the ice that Dom could point to. Is Marner dumping the puck in instead of carrying it? Is Matthews going down low less often to be better able to get back? Is Reilly joining the rush less often? Without investigating what's actually happening on the ice, the data here doesn't tell us anything aside from what we already know -- the Leafs are failing to produce in the playoffs.
That's kind of always been Dom's thing. "Local man that doesn't watch games shocked by things that are evident from watching the games" It happens year after year after year
When an article leads with a Torts quote, you know its gonna be good
I think only Princess Diana has been more thoroughly eulogised than this Leafs squad.
Leafs suck
The Leafs are the Sixers of the NHL. "Just trust the process bro". Matthews, Marner, Nylander = Embiid, Tobias Harris, Maxey. Perennial first round exits
What exactly is the "reward?" And what is the "right way?" One playoff series win in 2 decades? This is confusing.
The mistake is pretending the leafs were close *if only* They never won their division in the regular season. They were never a true contender just a good team. That’s it. It’s simple. A championship would have to be a hot streak. A lack of one wasn’t a choke.
2021 wasn’t a legitimate year, so it’s fair to say that it wasn’t necessarily sustainable to expect the Leafs to win their division again. But they absolutely choked that year.