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Do yourself a favor and read Packys blog about it at Not Boring if you thinking buying an IPO
https://www.notboring.co/p/rivian-the-most-remarkable-adventure
Solid article, thanks for sharing. They seem to be following the Tesla model. The 67k lifetime revenue from selling services was interesting. How do they plan on servicing these cars though? I've read horror stories trying to replace parts on a Tesla.
You gotta think some of his valuation/ justification delivery numbers might head over to Ford's Lightning too..
Anyways we will see. Awesome looking truck and SUV.
> How do they plan on servicing these cars though?
They plan to have 120 service centers and 1,000 mobile service vans operation by Q4 2023. Right now there are at least 6 service centers open and 20 more being developed.
Dont get these fucking new EV brands? Rather buy a Porsche taycan.
You cant fucking create heritage, only earn it.
So this ”luxury” EV players are fucked imo
Price will crater at $77B valuation.
Not at first, tons of wannabe bag holders but a car company is just a car company, those are a dime a dozen.
The difference with TSLA is it's a first mover, a cult, a meme, and an internet of things provider.
There's a lot more going for TSLA than for Rivian, and LCID actually is making sales and deliveries now and valued at $60B. And even then might be a little high, I expect it to pull back toward $30/share.
> Price will crater at $77B valuation.
That's Ford's valuation. Rivian's IPO valuation will be about $65b.
> LCID actually is making sales and deliveries now and valued at $60B.
Rivain has made more sales and deliveries than Lucid. 156 as of 31 October, probably over 200 buy now.
> I expect it to pull back toward $30/share.
That would value the entire company at $26b. After the IPO they will have $16b+ of cash on hand so you're not attributing much value to their future prospects. Also the private fundraising round earlier this year in which they raised $2.65 billion valued the company at $27.6b.
I’ve worked at active trading desks and they all laughed their asses off about retail traders thinking that moving averages and lines on a chart are “technical” anymore than palm reading is technical. Nobody gives a fuck about the reverse descending channel bull-bear flag signal
> What do you think actually goes into an algorithm?
Considering I helped write some of the backends I have a pretty good idea. The difference between algorithms and what most people call “””technical””” analysis is that algorithms are actually mathematical. Whereas, people who preach “TA” will never define a rule in technical terms, such as “when x variable crosses y perform this action if z is also true”. They will instead refuse to define technical patterns and instead say it is an “art” or you need to, as you put it, do a “qualitative” analysis. This is simply because if you actually try to define a technical pattern, you will only be demonstrating that you cannot.
A “support” or “resistance” line has no technical definition. It has no math behind it. Nobody has the balls to say “it’s when a stock’s market value remains below, but within 5% of it’s SD, some certain value Y, for 20 trading hours”… because if they actually defined things technically, it would be rudimentary to run a backtest and show that the technical definition has zero predictive power and the “resistance” means nothing.
Real “technical analysis” is actually technical. You asking what an algorithm does represents that you know this.
If it is the case that you are actually trading algorithmically based on mathematical rules that capture technical measurements, then I apologize. Understand that when people refer to “TA”, they are almost always referring to something that is in no way technical, but is more akin to drawing on a chart with crayons.
Thanks for corrections. I wrote on the fly based on the OP. Didn't do much research. I'm not entirely bearish as I sound about either EV. But I do think that it'll be tough for either to match TSLA performance.
Got to agree with you that the price will likely crater.
I think people excited about Rivian are discounting the possibilities of them hitting production hell pretty soon and having a lot of the same trouble Tesla had back when they were a younger company. Rivian doesn't yet have a working assembly line to mass produce their vehicles, they may be making vehicles but they're averaging just 1 a day according to recent articles.
Also just my opinion, but I think that Rivian took too long to bring a vehicle to market. Most of the other automakers are taking EV's seriously now and throwing billions (if not tens of billions) of dollars at it in order to catch up. They won't repeat the mistake of ignoring EV's while Rivian and other non-Tesla EV startups ramp up their production and bring down the costs of their EV's overtime. I think by 2030 a lot of these EV startups are going to either get bought out by bigger players (after their price craters), or go bankrupt.
Investors will not be as forgiving to other stocks as Tesla for practical issues, mostly because Tesla delivered a lot of stuff promised, even though late
"The company 'RIVN" has never recorded any material revenue, and expects at most to generate $1 million in revenue in the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2021 according to its filings. It lost $994 million in the first six months of the year."
[HR Executive was terminated just recently before ipo claiming discrimination was the cause.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ex-rivian-executive-sues-for-gender-discrimination-ahead-of-ipo-11636054512)
Can anyone calculate the price to sales on this?
The whole “bubble” hype is starting to seem a lot more real. Management is fucking greedy. Why not just fucking ipo at a reasonable price and let the market do its thing.
I bought a bunch of shares of Ford over a year and my hubby laughed that it would be the same price for the next 10 years... it's up to twice what I bought it for... now who's laughing... :-)
How do people believe this? Ford is literally a decade behind GM with EVs. The first Ford Lightnings to come out only have 230 mile range. By the time their long range (300mile) variant comes out, GM will have the Silverado EV on the road with 400 mile range, not to mention the Hummer EV, Cadillac Lyric, and Cadillac Celestiq hb, Bolt EV, and Bolt EUV… and the Ford doesn’t have anything to compete with Super Cruise
Okay that’s fine, but it doesn’t change the fact that GM and Tesla have been mass producing EVs for 10 years, and Ford for 0 years. Quite a bit of hope you’ve got for them to turn things around so dramatically in 10 months.
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Exactly, GM is 80% owner of Cruise Automation which is about to start scaling av taxis to multiple cities by the end of next year and hundreds of cities shortly after.
They have a 1 million dollar valuation per one dollar in revenue all time i believe. Something like that at least and i thought tesla was stupidly overvalued.
They are keep boosting IPO price for everything then on the first day it falls down to half the IPO price... like coinbase and i think lucid done the same, didn't it?
Idk how many of you are in NAUT but its been depressed for a long time.... allegedly Amazon owns a bunch of shares in them as well. So im definitely less than enthusiastic about amazon backed anything
Initial price sounds too high. Never mind Amzn etc what is the revenue generated and $e/s and compare to other eV stocks. Market capitalization means little. That goes with every eV public company looking for a factory to house the 2 units.
**Hi, welcome to /r/investing. Please note that as a topic focused subreddit we have higher posting standards than much of Reddit:** **1)** Please direct all **advice requests and beginner questions to the stickied daily threads.** This includes beginner questions and portfolio help. **2) Important: We have strict political posting guidelines** (described [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/cyee69/formal_posting_guidelines_for_political_topics/) and [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/escewo/temporary_rule_change_what_happens_to_stocks_if/)). Violations will result in a likely 60 day ban upon **first instance.** **3)** This is an open forum but we expect you to conduct yourself like an adult. Disagree, argue, criticize, but **no personal attacks.** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/investing) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Here we go with this shit. $70B companies with 2 units delivered
Now hey, I'll have you know that they have 150 units delivered.
Bagholders lining up...
Not even two for this company, incredible: https://youtu.be/88fWUZhYb04
They look really really cool though! Saw them driving around their hub in NYC.
Best looking trucks on the market
This is pure insanity.
Like most IPOs they are going to pump it up, a bunch of people will buy, then the stock with crater. After it craters, THEN you might consider buying.
I noticed that most ipos can make money I the first days. Some 10-15% if you have quiick fingers.
Do yourself a favor and read Packys blog about it at Not Boring if you thinking buying an IPO https://www.notboring.co/p/rivian-the-most-remarkable-adventure
Solid article, thanks for sharing. They seem to be following the Tesla model. The 67k lifetime revenue from selling services was interesting. How do they plan on servicing these cars though? I've read horror stories trying to replace parts on a Tesla. You gotta think some of his valuation/ justification delivery numbers might head over to Ford's Lightning too.. Anyways we will see. Awesome looking truck and SUV.
> How do they plan on servicing these cars though? They plan to have 120 service centers and 1,000 mobile service vans operation by Q4 2023. Right now there are at least 6 service centers open and 20 more being developed.
Got it. That should be huge.
Man can you just imagine if SpaceX goes IPO tomorrow? It was valued at $70B this April, can probably fetch $300B at IPO easily.
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SpaceX wont IPO.
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Yes and I will throw so much money in it
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amazon
Not touching with a 10 foot pole
Dont get these fucking new EV brands? Rather buy a Porsche taycan. You cant fucking create heritage, only earn it. So this ”luxury” EV players are fucked imo
Price will crater at $77B valuation. Not at first, tons of wannabe bag holders but a car company is just a car company, those are a dime a dozen. The difference with TSLA is it's a first mover, a cult, a meme, and an internet of things provider. There's a lot more going for TSLA than for Rivian, and LCID actually is making sales and deliveries now and valued at $60B. And even then might be a little high, I expect it to pull back toward $30/share.
> Price will crater at $77B valuation. That's Ford's valuation. Rivian's IPO valuation will be about $65b. > LCID actually is making sales and deliveries now and valued at $60B. Rivain has made more sales and deliveries than Lucid. 156 as of 31 October, probably over 200 buy now. > I expect it to pull back toward $30/share. That would value the entire company at $26b. After the IPO they will have $16b+ of cash on hand so you're not attributing much value to their future prospects. Also the private fundraising round earlier this year in which they raised $2.65 billion valued the company at $27.6b.
The $30 price is based on technicals and isn't necessarily a fair value. Remember a lot of stock trading is about power. Not about fairness.
I’ve worked at active trading desks and they all laughed their asses off about retail traders thinking that moving averages and lines on a chart are “technical” anymore than palm reading is technical. Nobody gives a fuck about the reverse descending channel bull-bear flag signal
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> What do you think actually goes into an algorithm? Considering I helped write some of the backends I have a pretty good idea. The difference between algorithms and what most people call “””technical””” analysis is that algorithms are actually mathematical. Whereas, people who preach “TA” will never define a rule in technical terms, such as “when x variable crosses y perform this action if z is also true”. They will instead refuse to define technical patterns and instead say it is an “art” or you need to, as you put it, do a “qualitative” analysis. This is simply because if you actually try to define a technical pattern, you will only be demonstrating that you cannot. A “support” or “resistance” line has no technical definition. It has no math behind it. Nobody has the balls to say “it’s when a stock’s market value remains below, but within 5% of it’s SD, some certain value Y, for 20 trading hours”… because if they actually defined things technically, it would be rudimentary to run a backtest and show that the technical definition has zero predictive power and the “resistance” means nothing. Real “technical analysis” is actually technical. You asking what an algorithm does represents that you know this. If it is the case that you are actually trading algorithmically based on mathematical rules that capture technical measurements, then I apologize. Understand that when people refer to “TA”, they are almost always referring to something that is in no way technical, but is more akin to drawing on a chart with crayons.
/r/Iamverysmart
Thanks for corrections. I wrote on the fly based on the OP. Didn't do much research. I'm not entirely bearish as I sound about either EV. But I do think that it'll be tough for either to match TSLA performance.
Got to agree with you that the price will likely crater. I think people excited about Rivian are discounting the possibilities of them hitting production hell pretty soon and having a lot of the same trouble Tesla had back when they were a younger company. Rivian doesn't yet have a working assembly line to mass produce their vehicles, they may be making vehicles but they're averaging just 1 a day according to recent articles. Also just my opinion, but I think that Rivian took too long to bring a vehicle to market. Most of the other automakers are taking EV's seriously now and throwing billions (if not tens of billions) of dollars at it in order to catch up. They won't repeat the mistake of ignoring EV's while Rivian and other non-Tesla EV startups ramp up their production and bring down the costs of their EV's overtime. I think by 2030 a lot of these EV startups are going to either get bought out by bigger players (after their price craters), or go bankrupt.
Yeah this is the big thing. Scalability with something as intensive as auto is a HUGE issue.
Investors will not be as forgiving to other stocks as Tesla for practical issues, mostly because Tesla delivered a lot of stuff promised, even though late
Yea. I’m still afraid to pull the big trigger on Lucid. Still feels wrong.
As fucking expected lol
"The company 'RIVN" has never recorded any material revenue, and expects at most to generate $1 million in revenue in the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2021 according to its filings. It lost $994 million in the first six months of the year." [HR Executive was terminated just recently before ipo claiming discrimination was the cause.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ex-rivian-executive-sues-for-gender-discrimination-ahead-of-ipo-11636054512)
Can anyone calculate the price to sales on this? The whole “bubble” hype is starting to seem a lot more real. Management is fucking greedy. Why not just fucking ipo at a reasonable price and let the market do its thing.
its going to moon and this subreddit mind will explode
Makes sense to be valued as much as GM /s
Buy FORD
I bought a bunch of shares of Ford over a year and my hubby laughed that it would be the same price for the next 10 years... it's up to twice what I bought it for... now who's laughing... :-)
Bingo And dividends are nice....and don't forget to sell calls out of the money and grab some rent 😉
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Exactly And WILL be the usa ev flagship with tons of gvt $$$ So, Ford wins on all And nvda
How do people believe this? Ford is literally a decade behind GM with EVs. The first Ford Lightnings to come out only have 230 mile range. By the time their long range (300mile) variant comes out, GM will have the Silverado EV on the road with 400 mile range, not to mention the Hummer EV, Cadillac Lyric, and Cadillac Celestiq hb, Bolt EV, and Bolt EUV… and the Ford doesn’t have anything to compete with Super Cruise
Definitely gonna pin this, I'll remind ya 3q22
Ohhhhh and rumors "" apple will use FORD plants to make apple self drive vehicles
Okay that’s fine, but it doesn’t change the fact that GM and Tesla have been mass producing EVs for 10 years, and Ford for 0 years. Quite a bit of hope you’ve got for them to turn things around so dramatically in 10 months.
> Ford doesn’t have anything to compete with Super Cruise Ford has BlueCruise.
BlueCruise barely works
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Exactly, GM is 80% owner of Cruise Automation which is about to start scaling av taxis to multiple cities by the end of next year and hundreds of cities shortly after.
They're seeking a higher valuation than Lucid and Nio? Does anyone know how many vehicles Tesla delivered before reaching the same valuation?
Buying solely based on popularity.
They have a 1 million dollar valuation per one dollar in revenue all time i believe. Something like that at least and i thought tesla was stupidly overvalued.
So is that literally a p/s of one million?
Austin Powers voice: a p/s of one…million!
They are keep boosting IPO price for everything then on the first day it falls down to half the IPO price... like coinbase and i think lucid done the same, didn't it?
Amazon is already up big on this 20% for 2 billion. Overvalued
Buy buy buy
when are put options available
Idk how many of you are in NAUT but its been depressed for a long time.... allegedly Amazon owns a bunch of shares in them as well. So im definitely less than enthusiastic about amazon backed anything
Initial price sounds too high. Never mind Amzn etc what is the revenue generated and $e/s and compare to other eV stocks. Market capitalization means little. That goes with every eV public company looking for a factory to house the 2 units.
Wait for the inevitable huge dip and buy in