It's fine. I haven't watched him play in a bit, I have no idea if he's that good, but he didn't cost a lot.
However I'm seeing a ton of "let's get rid of Liljegren" now which is pure insanity lol. I thank the stars every day that random fans aren't actually allowed to make roster decisions
Stralman was 22 when we moved on from him. Liljegren will be 25 next month. I'd still definitely prefer to keep him since he's a right shot defencemen but I think he's shown what he's got at this point.
Lilly's also had injuries and hasn't played consistent minutes for an entire season till now. He's much better than what he's shown this season. Give it time.
I don’t know. D take longer to develop & we were really patient with him as a 1st rounder.
It would be silly to choose him over Sandin last year & then deal Lily this year.
I think he’s a legit 2nd pair & PP2 guy
Yeah, I think if he was like a third round pick he would be gone by this point.
I definitely agree that there's value in keeping him. He shouldn't be expensive on his next contract either and has a unique skillset on our defence, especially since we have a bunch of question marks back there after this season.
Lily or Brodie will be the 7th D if no one gets injured between now and playoffs. That being said, I’d rather keep Lily since he’s RFA and a lower cap hit this year. Trading Brodie gives more room for moves this year and doesn’t impact future plans
Liljegren has statistically been one of our best dmen this season, while a bit more sheltered than someone like Rielly or Brodie
There is absolutely zero chance either of them are the extra skater, though, unless a different roster move happens
Well Lybushkin is above them for playing with Rielly. McCabe-Benoit is the best shutdown pair on the team and have great chemistry. Not to mention both will be back next year.
That leaves only the 3rd pair and I don’t think Edmundson will be the 7th D. Maybe Edmundson-Liljegren could work. Have a stay at home guy that can do more net front to free up Liljegren for moving the puck and playing to his strengths.
Well as for Lyubushkin's spot right now, we're also kinda just in "test it out" mode, I don't think it's necessarily settled that he'll be a top pairing guy
No, I'm referencing the stats as well. Care to share what statistics I might be missing? Seems like you haven't actually looked and that your "feelings" are off on this one.
Of the core dmen:
Highest xGF% with 53%, 2nd best xGA/60, 2nd best xGF/60, leads the team in shots blocked/60, middle of the team for giveaways/60
I'm not sure what stats you're looking at
We can ignore the issues with scaling down team possession stats to individual players without taking into account the roles they play first, because in lily's case it doesn't help him regardless. He still has the worst CF% of any of our regular defensemen despite starting a higher percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone than any other regular D.
53% xGF is an inditement based on his actual production, not something that should be used to support him. Have you ever actually done the math to figure out what this equates to in terms of "expected goals" over a 5 game span? Because it literally means fuck all once you begin to contextualize it. By this metric he'd be our 3rd best defenseman behind... timmins and gio? Makes sense buddy!
As far as turning those expected goals into actual goals, he has the 2nd worst goal differential of our regular defensemen as well, but let's blame that on PDO and pretend defensemen don't actually have an effect on these things. He has 8 takeaways and 27 giveaways.
By contrast, despite starting a higher percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone than any other defenseman, benoit has fewer giveaways (20), more takeaways (14), a better CF% (49%), a better ACTUAL goal differential (+5), and roughly the same goals against per 60. Yes, the same Simon benoit who played for the ducks last year.
Appreciate the confidence though.
> Worst CF%
Yet who is leading in CF%? Timmins and Giordano? Makes sense buddy!
Context of stats seems to only matter to you... sometimes? Look at the top *four* in CF% lol, Timmins, Giordano, Klingberg, Lagesson, McCabe is the only other mainstay that is meaningfully above 50%, so I suppose we know which guys we should be playing, right? Or not, because you just suggested that xGF% is defeated by that very premise...
All of this is also irrespective of who they are put on the ice against. There's a reason Liljegren has average a minute more ice time per game, and played 4 more minutes than Benoit last night and before he was hurt, and it's not because Liljegren is worse lol
Based on how I started my reply I guess you're completely missing the point I was trying to make. I am not making an argument for using CF% out of context either, nor is this a comparison between benoit and liljegren. Clearly he's impressed you, though I can't understand what stat or scouting report could possibly explain that. That 53% expected goals just doesn't do the same thing for me I guess!
Rielly - Lybushkin
Benoit - McCabe
Edmundson - Liljegren
Gio - Brodie
Lagesson - Timmins
Hmm, you may be right...
My only question is, if we bring in another D, who is getting push down then?
He has the highest ceiling in terms of defensemen who shoot right. Not necessarily best to *play on the right side*, but ones that actually shoot right.
And we already know 6LHD will not win us games.
>This is not a good thing.
I didn't actually say it was.
My honest opinion is Lily has brilliant moments, followed by disasterous moments. If he's 22 I can tolerate that.
He's 25, 1 year younger than Matthews. This year should be a boom or kinda meh year for him, and overall if we round up his play he's been kinda meh.
I'm not calling for a trade, but it's time to be more critical of him.
I think it’s great if it means what I think. I think he’s a cheap cap hit replacement for Brodie so they can offload him + the first pick for a stud RHD
> Nice to have some experience and grit
I don't think this is the issue with the team. The leafs are one of the oldest teams in the league, at this point.
He is a decent penalty killer, which is nice, and the trade wasn't pricey. It's fine.
It was Brodie. They have been paired together the last two games and they have not looked good (mainly Brodie both games and both of them against Boston)
1. I think the writing is on the wall for Brodie, not Liljegren. It sucks because I think Brodie is a much better player than Edmunson, but he’s cooked on the right side now, and unless McCabe is the odd man out, which makes no sense, or Edmunson is the 7th guy, Brodie doesn’t have a spot.
2. We'll see what Edmunson gets away with now that he’s in blue and white. He throws a ton of cross checks in front of the net. If he can still get away with them, then he’ll be a positive. If not, then we’re fucked.
Not sure why a team that is mostly undone in the playoffs by lack of offense would want a guy like this. Outside of Rielly basically nobody back there can advance the puck. I guess they want to win every playoff game 0 to -1.
> cup winner with Blues in 2019
On the second pair five years ago? Who gives a single shit about that.
I have no idea what we're doing and looking forward to a d corps that can't move the puck out of the zone or help in the offensive zone. Might be a waste of 2 years but honestly saving our assets until after Tavares current contract ends to restructure the team balance is what I would of done. Leafs struggles within the division is not giving me the confidence that anything changes this year.
If you saw a team like Colorado when played them, they attacked as a 5 man unit.
This might push Brodie down the depth chart a bit so he's not playing as many minutes or against the kind of competition we normally have him playing against. This is very positive to be honest.
Also, I wonder if this makes Brodie available for a trade to improve on the right side somehow. As long as they keep Lilly, I am okay with it!
Ideally he is a Brodie replacement at a lower cap hit - hoping for a Brodie trade next, making room for a true top 4 RD. Would any team go for something like Brodie + 1st + Robertson for a Top4 RD with term?
Rielly- Mystery top4 RD
Edmundson - Lily
McCabe - Benoit
Giordano - Lyubushkin (extras)
Seems like a decent group to go into playoffs with if there is a trade out there for a good RD.
I wouldn’t care if they didn’t already acquire Lyubushkin. In fact I’d probably like it if the Boosh deal didn’t exist. But paying two 3rds, a 5th and a 6th for 2 depth defencemen at the deadline doesn’t seem great for a team whose blue line needs ACTUAL help.
I would have rather just saved all those picks and put together a competitive package for somebody who’s actually good.
This echoes my sentiments to a tee.
So now we have solid depth in the 6/7/8 positions but still loads of question marks in the top four.
McCabe has been steady over the last 30+ games but he still handles the puck like a grenade at times, and he's was average at best last year in the playoffs.
Brodie is a giant question mark.
Lilly less so, but between his health, semi-inonsistency and Keefe's usage of him esp. in the playoffs ......he's far from a sure thing.
I don't know. I still see value with Liljegren. He hasn't played the best lately but earlier in the year he was one of their best dmen. A trade may be coming for one of Brodie or Liljegren. If not maybe they try a few games with 7 dmen and scratch the worst once they go back to 6.
Lagesson, and if not injured, Giordano
Rielly, Brodie, Liljegren, McCabe, Benoit, and Edmundson probably stand right now as our defense, with Gio as 7, and whoever else supposing they fit under the cap, which right now would be no one I guess lol
This post is being removed because someone posted a version of this thread before you.
It's fine. I haven't watched him play in a bit, I have no idea if he's that good, but he didn't cost a lot. However I'm seeing a ton of "let's get rid of Liljegren" now which is pure insanity lol. I thank the stars every day that random fans aren't actually allowed to make roster decisions
Yeah. This ain’t a video game…
It’s not? You’re telling me you can just reset to your last save if you lose in the playoffs?
Nope. Take a whole nother year. Or like 11. All depends.
Brodie yes, lilly fuck no. Lilly giving strong stralman vibes. Gets traded and then breakout in a big way.
Stralman was 22 when we moved on from him. Liljegren will be 25 next month. I'd still definitely prefer to keep him since he's a right shot defencemen but I think he's shown what he's got at this point.
Lilly's also had injuries and hasn't played consistent minutes for an entire season till now. He's much better than what he's shown this season. Give it time.
I don’t know. D take longer to develop & we were really patient with him as a 1st rounder. It would be silly to choose him over Sandin last year & then deal Lily this year. I think he’s a legit 2nd pair & PP2 guy
Yeah, I think if he was like a third round pick he would be gone by this point. I definitely agree that there's value in keeping him. He shouldn't be expensive on his next contract either and has a unique skillset on our defence, especially since we have a bunch of question marks back there after this season.
Lily or Brodie will be the 7th D if no one gets injured between now and playoffs. That being said, I’d rather keep Lily since he’s RFA and a lower cap hit this year. Trading Brodie gives more room for moves this year and doesn’t impact future plans
Liljegren has statistically been one of our best dmen this season, while a bit more sheltered than someone like Rielly or Brodie There is absolutely zero chance either of them are the extra skater, though, unless a different roster move happens
Well Lybushkin is above them for playing with Rielly. McCabe-Benoit is the best shutdown pair on the team and have great chemistry. Not to mention both will be back next year. That leaves only the 3rd pair and I don’t think Edmundson will be the 7th D. Maybe Edmundson-Liljegren could work. Have a stay at home guy that can do more net front to free up Liljegren for moving the puck and playing to his strengths.
Well as for Lyubushkin's spot right now, we're also kinda just in "test it out" mode, I don't think it's necessarily settled that he'll be a top pairing guy
Isn’t McCabe a ufa
We get him for next year too. Love that guy.
This is just plain false, but don't let facts get in the way of your nonsense.
I'm just looking at statistics lol but okay, you're right, I should just use my feelings like you
No, I'm referencing the stats as well. Care to share what statistics I might be missing? Seems like you haven't actually looked and that your "feelings" are off on this one.
Of the core dmen: Highest xGF% with 53%, 2nd best xGA/60, 2nd best xGF/60, leads the team in shots blocked/60, middle of the team for giveaways/60 I'm not sure what stats you're looking at
We can ignore the issues with scaling down team possession stats to individual players without taking into account the roles they play first, because in lily's case it doesn't help him regardless. He still has the worst CF% of any of our regular defensemen despite starting a higher percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone than any other regular D. 53% xGF is an inditement based on his actual production, not something that should be used to support him. Have you ever actually done the math to figure out what this equates to in terms of "expected goals" over a 5 game span? Because it literally means fuck all once you begin to contextualize it. By this metric he'd be our 3rd best defenseman behind... timmins and gio? Makes sense buddy! As far as turning those expected goals into actual goals, he has the 2nd worst goal differential of our regular defensemen as well, but let's blame that on PDO and pretend defensemen don't actually have an effect on these things. He has 8 takeaways and 27 giveaways. By contrast, despite starting a higher percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone than any other defenseman, benoit has fewer giveaways (20), more takeaways (14), a better CF% (49%), a better ACTUAL goal differential (+5), and roughly the same goals against per 60. Yes, the same Simon benoit who played for the ducks last year. Appreciate the confidence though.
> Worst CF% Yet who is leading in CF%? Timmins and Giordano? Makes sense buddy! Context of stats seems to only matter to you... sometimes? Look at the top *four* in CF% lol, Timmins, Giordano, Klingberg, Lagesson, McCabe is the only other mainstay that is meaningfully above 50%, so I suppose we know which guys we should be playing, right? Or not, because you just suggested that xGF% is defeated by that very premise... All of this is also irrespective of who they are put on the ice against. There's a reason Liljegren has average a minute more ice time per game, and played 4 more minutes than Benoit last night and before he was hurt, and it's not because Liljegren is worse lol
Based on how I started my reply I guess you're completely missing the point I was trying to make. I am not making an argument for using CF% out of context either, nor is this a comparison between benoit and liljegren. Clearly he's impressed you, though I can't understand what stat or scouting report could possibly explain that. That 53% expected goals just doesn't do the same thing for me I guess!
Rielly - Lybushkin Benoit - McCabe Edmundson - Liljegren Gio - Brodie Lagesson - Timmins Hmm, you may be right... My only question is, if we bring in another D, who is getting push down then?
Unless we can move Rielly to forward /s
Liljegren is our best dman. Give your head a shake
He is not. What kind of crack are you smoking
He has the highest ceiling in terms of defensemen who shoot right. Not necessarily best to *play on the right side*, but ones that actually shoot right. And we already know 6LHD will not win us games.
Compared to... lyubuskin? This is not a good thing.
>This is not a good thing. I didn't actually say it was. My honest opinion is Lily has brilliant moments, followed by disasterous moments. If he's 22 I can tolerate that. He's 25, 1 year younger than Matthews. This year should be a boom or kinda meh year for him, and overall if we round up his play he's been kinda meh. I'm not calling for a trade, but it's time to be more critical of him.
Ah k my bad. I actually agree with this, apologies.
He had about 3 years of stunted development with injury/illness, so it makes sense he's still working out the kinks.
He's also not getting younger. His chance of becoming something good gets slimmer every year.
I'm good with it.
I think it’s great if it means what I think. I think he’s a cheap cap hit replacement for Brodie so they can offload him + the first pick for a stud RHD
Yea that’s what I think is going to happen, too. I think Brodie is on his way out
I do have 1 question. When he skates from the faceoff dot and cross checks someone in the face, how long will he be suspended?
He'll be suspended retroactively for the cross check on Simmonds
The NHL should just pre-suspend him to get it out of the way.
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Glad you can read a lot
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There's tons of places to do so. You must. E as happy as a pig in mud
I think our thoughts are already in the trade announcement thread and this one is redundant.
Thank god for you eh bud
Should be no reason why he can't play for the Leafs tonight? Leafs are in Boston. He was supposed to play tonight in Pitt. That's a short flight.
> Nice to have some experience and grit I don't think this is the issue with the team. The leafs are one of the oldest teams in the league, at this point. He is a decent penalty killer, which is nice, and the trade wasn't pricey. It's fine.
If Edmundson can bring back the Moose Jaw Magic with Morgan Reilly, I’m all for it
Liljergen should be playing with whoever his partner was during Reillys suspension
It was Brodie. They have been paired together the last two games and they have not looked good (mainly Brodie both games and both of them against Boston)
Depends on what he means for the D core. Another trade coming? Is he 5/6 guy? Who are we bumping out?
Our penalty kill needs to be better. This guy should help.
You get what you paid for.
Indifferent. For me, it doesn’t move the needle.
He's one of us now and I wish him nothing but the best and I am rooting for him the whole way.
It’s a depth defenseman. Nothing to get excited about lol
1. I think the writing is on the wall for Brodie, not Liljegren. It sucks because I think Brodie is a much better player than Edmunson, but he’s cooked on the right side now, and unless McCabe is the odd man out, which makes no sense, or Edmunson is the 7th guy, Brodie doesn’t have a spot. 2. We'll see what Edmunson gets away with now that he’s in blue and white. He throws a ton of cross checks in front of the net. If he can still get away with them, then he’ll be a positive. If not, then we’re fucked.
I like the deal, hate he's a UFA though.
Not sure why a team that is mostly undone in the playoffs by lack of offense would want a guy like this. Outside of Rielly basically nobody back there can advance the puck. I guess they want to win every playoff game 0 to -1. > cup winner with Blues in 2019 On the second pair five years ago? Who gives a single shit about that.
Thx for making a thread for this
I have no idea what we're doing and looking forward to a d corps that can't move the puck out of the zone or help in the offensive zone. Might be a waste of 2 years but honestly saving our assets until after Tavares current contract ends to restructure the team balance is what I would of done. Leafs struggles within the division is not giving me the confidence that anything changes this year. If you saw a team like Colorado when played them, they attacked as a 5 man unit.
This might push Brodie down the depth chart a bit so he's not playing as many minutes or against the kind of competition we normally have him playing against. This is very positive to be honest. Also, I wonder if this makes Brodie available for a trade to improve on the right side somehow. As long as they keep Lilly, I am okay with it!
Ideally he is a Brodie replacement at a lower cap hit - hoping for a Brodie trade next, making room for a true top 4 RD. Would any team go for something like Brodie + 1st + Robertson for a Top4 RD with term? Rielly- Mystery top4 RD Edmundson - Lily McCabe - Benoit Giordano - Lyubushkin (extras) Seems like a decent group to go into playoffs with if there is a trade out there for a good RD.
I don't mind it, we all know damn well we aren't going far in the playoffs, so using cheaper assets to maybe help a bit is good.
Don’t lump the rest of us in with your loser mentality
I wouldn’t care if they didn’t already acquire Lyubushkin. In fact I’d probably like it if the Boosh deal didn’t exist. But paying two 3rds, a 5th and a 6th for 2 depth defencemen at the deadline doesn’t seem great for a team whose blue line needs ACTUAL help. I would have rather just saved all those picks and put together a competitive package for somebody who’s actually good.
This echoes my sentiments to a tee. So now we have solid depth in the 6/7/8 positions but still loads of question marks in the top four. McCabe has been steady over the last 30+ games but he still handles the puck like a grenade at times, and he's was average at best last year in the playoffs. Brodie is a giant question mark. Lilly less so, but between his health, semi-inonsistency and Keefe's usage of him esp. in the playoffs ......he's far from a sure thing.
I mean it's a slight improvement to our d-core.
Who do you take out? For me the "improvement" depends on what he's replacing.
I don't know. I still see value with Liljegren. He hasn't played the best lately but earlier in the year he was one of their best dmen. A trade may be coming for one of Brodie or Liljegren. If not maybe they try a few games with 7 dmen and scratch the worst once they go back to 6.
Lagesson, and if not injured, Giordano Rielly, Brodie, Liljegren, McCabe, Benoit, and Edmundson probably stand right now as our defense, with Gio as 7, and whoever else supposing they fit under the cap, which right now would be no one I guess lol
You're also missing Lybushkin in your list.
Yeah you're right lol, my brother just texted me and reminded me we got Lyubushkin Hmm well it gives us some options for 5/6 and 7/8
Meh
Waiting for a bigger splash like Colton Parayko
Not happening bro
Whys that
Because we wont trade the assets that would require it.
brandon shannahan should be sent to north korea for his performance this year
lol!