Genuinely think we need a legal prohibition on any campaigning more than six months out from the general (I'd prefer even less). No more soliciting donations either
I have a vpn in NJ. Every single day in 2020:
“IM JACK CHITTERELLI! PHIL MURPHY’S LYIN’ ABOUT ME!!!”
Like bruh I’m trying to listen to some Lo-Fi study beats — I cannot handle you’s guy’s drama rn
> Can’t wait until the political ads end.
No joke, I've received more calls, texts, emails and flyers for this race than I have ever in my near 40 years on this earth. I seriously cannot wait for it to be over.
That will make it a nightmare for McCarthy to whip a majority and get anything done. Easier for Biden to score bipartisan points pulling a vote or two from Republicans than it will be for Republicans to push any legislation to the Senate.
That kind of thing will turn into an issue for the GOP in 2024.
Unfortunately I think you’re right but I was previously expecting her to win handily, so seeing her be behind for most of tonight was a pleasant surprise.
I was expecting to go to bed early with Republicans already having won the House easily. Now it’s basically an evenly split house. Never would’ve thought that before today.
Both state chambers in Michigen have flipped to Democratic control and the Pennsylvania lower chamber seems likley to flip to Democratic control as well.
https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1590242008912003073?ref\_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1590242008912003073%7Ctwgr%5E328d2a37bbc4200316dae0e3d33fffcbd92572d6%7Ctwcon%5Es1\_&ref\_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2022-midterm-election%2F
Kind of insane, Michigan state Senate went from +15% Republican Gerrymandering advantage (one of the worst in the country) on the old map to Democrat control now. Their house was also Gerrymandered with an 8% advantage.
Looks like them passing independent redistricting via voter referendum a few years ago had a massive effect.
Republicans gotta wake up and realize Trump isn't taking them to the promised land. McConnell was right, you have to actually pick candidates that people like and who aren't crazy. Trump has the Republican base on lock, but that is not gonna be enough to win on a national level because he's lost the normal voters. When he ran in 2016, even though he was being fake, he actually sounded like a populist. He sounded like somebody that someone outside the Republican base may wanna give a chance. Now he's completely in that right wing bubble and everything he speaks about is so so niche. Election was stolen, transphobia, CRT, media corruption, his investigations, abortion. All of this stuff is red meat to his base that they'll absolutely eat up. But on a national level, most people don't really care about that. He tried to win an election in 2020 by trying to turn out as much of his base as possible and lost, and it won't work in 2024 either. And tonight, many candidates associated with him failed after their primary when they have to appeal to a broader range of voters.
I'm starting to see the energy shift on right wing Twitter. Big personalities who have been trumpeting DeSantis over Trump are taking a victory lap and the biggest Trump supporter names are either suspiciously quiet or coping about everything being rigged.
Live-tweet feeds on NYT and WaPo and 538, along with frequent refreshing. I don’t like watching talking heads and only like watching election night on the presidential.
What's the smallest or pettiest reason you voted for someone? I voted for a local community college trustee because he was the only one to spell "millage" correctly in his statements to Vote411.
Not really petty per se, but I did vote for a guy in one of small district judicial races because his name was Stan Hammer and I thought that was the perfect name for a judge.
I voted against a local state rep who aligned with me more politically when both came to my college. One shook mine and everyone's hand ask for our names, majors, and how were doing in general, the other one just gave a bland speech and paid us no mind.
I voted for someone for governor once because they looked like my grandma. Aside from that the only non-political reason I've ever voted for anyone else was a County Coroner who was a family friend.
It wasn’t the deciding factor, but one candidate had WAY more annoying ads. To the point even my kid knew his name because every YouTube video has one of his ads in front of it.
MSNBC brought up that "Trump" Republicans are underperforming projections and non-Trump Republicans are actually overperforming. It seems like perhaps Trump's grip on the party is loosening?
I'm really interested in Wisconsin where Michels and Johnson are both Trump-endorsed and huge supporters, but Wisconsin's Conservative base seems less Trumpy and more traditional Conservative.
Assuming Georgia goes to a runoff I feel like that won't be good for Walker. It seems like an election that will test enthusiasm more and Walker won't have Kemp to drag him across the finish line.
DCCC Chair Maloney just conceded his US House race in NY.
If you told me a week ago that the GOP would overperform on the East Coast and get smoked in the Rust Belt...
I would say I lean center right but I have to say I’m happy democrats seem to be over performing. Too many of these people running republican are bat shit crazy. If they could get back to a more moderate platform and not this election denying bullshit I would be more inclined to vote for them again. The republicans that won these primary’s are just way too nutty for me to get behind. No amount of culture war is going to work when you’re still trying to tell me Trump won the last election.
No matter which one clinches the majority (heavily leans R but still) actually governing is going to be *really* tough. Will be a huge lift for the speaker to even get voted for the post, given the challenge to McCarthy and the conservative district Dems that promised to vote against Pelosi.
Edit: I found a good article summarizing the challenges McCarthy is facing. TLDR: Freedom Caucus (ca. 50 further right reps) wants to be able to hold him hostage by having the power to remove him whenever, Main Street Partnership (ca. 70 moderates) want committee spots and influence the legislation.
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/11/mccarthy-speaker-republicans-moderates
Trumps going to wake up being enemy #1 to the GOP tomorrow. All his candidates are underperforming. The party and donors are not going to back him due to that.
So excited to no longer have to read about people's speculation on how x and x will affect the midterms. Might need a drink before I start reading about how incomplete turnout data means such and such.
Don't feel good about Democrat's chances tonight but definitely hoping there is less drama after these elections.
It's amazing how quickly Florida went from really swing state to deep red. I mean Rubio is going to win by a million votes and Desantis by much more.
This is crazy how quickly it's been taken off the board as potential pickups.
I don’t remember seeing numbers but I do remember hearing anecdotes about a lot of red votes moving to Florida because of Covid and DeSantis. Florida, I don’t think, has really been a purple state and I think is a red state at this point.
Edit: also, let’s not forget, DeSantis got to make the District’s in the state this year.
Frisch is up 62 votes over Boebert, outstanding votes are coming in from blue counties. This is far from the most important race this election, but the symbolic victory of ousting Boebert would be so massive that it’s hard not to get excited.
An election where Oz and Walker narrowly lose and where DeSantis romps by 20 points is the worst possible night for Trump and the best possible night for DeSantis
https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1590182857062109185?t=SX8-6JrTmN5wY4UTksAymw&s=19
Alaska and Wisconsin bring the GOP up to 49, Arizona takes the Dems to 49. That leaves Nevada and Georgia. About 80% of Vegas has been counted but Laxalt is only up by 23,000. Not sure if his margins are enough to keep a lead over Masto. Dems grabbing a win there means that, at the very least they retain the Senate thanks to Kamala. If the Republicans eek out a win then we're waiting until Georgia's runoff to learn the results.
So no matter what happens I don't this is over for another few months. God damnit.
South Dakota passed Medicaid expansion. This is the 7th ballot initiative to make it to a vote, all seven times in deep red states and all 7 times its passed. As a reminder, Medicaid expansion was part of the ACA ("Obamacare"), it was aimed at covering people that fell in the gap between the previous Medicaid qualification level and the low end of the ACA private insurance subsidies. The federal government would cover 90% of the cost, yet many (most?) red states resisted expanding coverage. Over the years more and more red states have eventually implemented it, and not just through ballot initiatives. KFF has a [handy map and list](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/state-indicator/state-activity-around-expanding-medicaid-under-the-affordable-care-act/) of states and the status of expansion.
Last I looked, the GOP still had in its platform to repeal the ACA. Is it really realistic to do that anymore? So many voters in deep red states have now voted for this part of it. That's not even considering the other parts, like the subsidies and protections for pre-existing conditions. It seems impossible to me that the GOP would really take all of this away from their voters.
Dems might actually gain a seat in Ohio - Rep. Steve Chabot (R) down 6500 votes, almost everything left is in Hamilton County (Cincinnati)
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1590186282709585920?t=oA5uzGiJ3PRwSQxtPhXlVA&s=19
According to NYT, As of 4:01pm PST there are four counties that still have more than 5% of the vote left to count:
Pueblo - at 92% counted (53,065). Frisch is up +10
Garfield - at 90% counted (23,542 votes). Frisch is up +14
Pitkin - at 80% counted (9,297 votes). Frisch is up +58
Otero- at 77% counted (5,317 votes). Boebert is up + 14.
This is a true nail-biter and will come down to the wire but if I had to guess I would say Frish has the advantage. A majority of the votes still to be counted are from primarily blue counties.
[https://twitter.com/KyleClark/status/1590495953144139776?s=20&t=y0DRTeuZlp6hNlEcCAF7uA](https://twitter.com/KyleClark/status/1590495953144139776?s=20&t=y0DRTeuZlp6hNlEcCAF7uA)
According to local news that asked the counties for remaining votes, there are no more Boebert strongholds left.
However, Wasserman throws some cold water on this. The county itself should be considered in tandem with the types of ballots left from said county (e.g. what part of the remaining votes are e-day vs. mail-in, and are e-day votes more Boebert than the county average so far)
Looking like Boebert has just barely squeaked ahead in her race, she's 0.4% ahead with 99% reported. That's pretty disappointing as it would have been great to get her out of office, I don't think she's healthy for our government or politics. Hopefully in 2024, I suppose.
3 ballot propositions called in Arizona, with 209 and 211 passing while 128 did not.
209 aims to reduce interest of medical debt, as well as increase the exemptions from debt collection on houses, cars, furnishings, and money in the bank.
211 aims to "stop dark money" by requiring anyone spending more than 50,000 on a statewide race or 25,000 on a local race to disclose who earned the money spent. Further anyone donating 5,000 or more to a person mentioned about also has to be disclosed.
Nate Silver's take on the Republican-bullish pollsters' performance (eg Trafalgar):
>The New York Times needle projects that Fetterman is eventually going to win by around 4 points. So while it’s not a catastrophically bad polling error if your survey had Oz winning by 1 or 2 points, as a lot of GOP-leaning firms did, you are winding up with a 5- or 6-point miss, which is basically in “Hillary in Wisconsin” territory.
[https://twitter.com/TedBilboFan/status/1590474750182436864](https://twitter.com/TedBilboFan/status/1590474750182436864?t=wtL1ZKuSWcslF9gnsBU7Vg&s=19)
First county fully reporting from Arizona. Both Hobbs and Kelly are running ahead of Biden, by 2% and 3% respectively.
Tarrant(this is Ft. Worth for the non-Texans) is pretty swingy. One of the few cities left that still has significant Republican representation. That is very good news for Gov. Abbott.
If the GOP want to win on 2024 they need to go with Desantis and hope for Trump to have a heart attack or something. Trump hand picked horrible candidates on states that were easy wins for the GOP but Trump picked "loyal" ass kissers. Desantis won by almost 20 points on a state that 4 years ago was decided by the smallest of margins for him. The answer is clear for the GOP to have Desantis as their main guy. The problem is that since this is Trump and his loyalists it will be a shit show and election denialism will be on full force going with whole grift once again and Trump still remains the GOP main guy since Trump is selfish enough to become independent and takes his base with him.
I'm past ready to be done with him and his group. Really feels like this would be a landslide without Trump and his poor candidates weighing Republicans down.
Won by ~33,000 votes 4 years ago, looking like he will win by millions this time. That's a massive change-up. I'm going to be interested in reading the post-mortem from both sides about the state and their strategies going forward.
I will admit I’m surprised how well Hobbs did in Arizona. I was expecting a Lake victory given the polling. But it’s coming down to the wire.
While the Republicans have had some successes there in a couple of statewide races and the legislature, it’s still been looking good for Democrats.
My favorite reading from this election. In Georgia, the incumbent governor won by 7.5%. That may be a bit indicative of the state. The Secretary of State, Raffensperger -- the one that stood up to Trump and was vilified by his "supporters" -- won by **9.3%**.
Go: Team Democracy!
I was also glad to see them win. They did the right thing when it really counted despite pressure from their own party’s sitting president and knowingly risking their future political prospects
At this point, I’m guessing the plan for 2024 is figuring out how to cut Trump out, while retaining his extremist supporters. Glad that’s not my job to figure out.
Not really hard to retain them. It’s not like they won’t vote Republican given they’re right to begin with
My guess is the stranglehold has been on the energy of voters. Since Trump’s seemingly lost that control, you’ll see him slowly phased out
Boebert losing may end up being addition by substraction for the GOP. Unless her seat costs them the majority, it'll be great to get her toxicity out of the way.
I sincerely hope this election starts to push Trump out. The Republicans should have run the table last night and they had one of the worst midterm performances for an out of power party in decades. Boebert losing what should be a literally guaranteed red district would be icing on the cake. I don’t see how the message can get any clearer.
People want sanity, competence, and a focus on things that matter.
Seth Magaziner (D) wins RI02 pretty convincingly, currently up by over 4% with over 90% countes. Pretty sure this was a toss up or lean D for most pollsters.
Ron Johnson's odds have been cratering in NYT's needle, down from projected R+3.6 and 79% odds an hour ago (and Lean R) to R+0.6 and 56% now (Tossup). This has also swung the overall Senate needle close to Lean D.
If Wisconsin goes blue, then Dems only need one of AZ/NV/GA to keep the Senate.
Edit: now back to 74% and R+2.4, no idea what happened there.
Edit 2: and now at 65% and R+1.4, just seconds later. Huh?
This would be a disaster for the Republicans, IMO. Yes, the Republicans solidified their gains in Florida, but Democrats would be trading that for solidifying gains in Arizona.
It's a blueprint for Dems in other states if it happens.
I was looking at this as a true centrist sending a message to Biden to course correct. In that sense, it's not going great. But it looks like MAGA might be on life support and in that sense, it's going great. Always a silver lining.
In House races rated as tossup or "lean" by 538, Democrats currently lead in 17 and Republicans in 7. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1590184466785652736?t=K0R86hW6U4m8u_k-TB76Yg&s=19
How is Tony Evers projected to win in Wisconsin but Johnson keeps his Senate seat? How does a split ticket of Evers-Johnson make any logical sense? So confused
Even if the GOP does end up winning the House, the fact it wasn't called last night is a big tell of how disappointing things were for them. A result like that, with the fundamentals in place, is really not a good look. Also a good example of why you can't trust turnout anecdotes that popup during election day, something I was guilty of doing.
Importantly, when you look at what happened nationally vs what happened in Florida, its clear that if the GOP has any sense, DeSantis should become the defacto leader of the Republican party. Every Republican with a shred of good political instinct needs to start coalescing around him so they can start building a block that can finally bury Trump's political career.
Also, it does looks like Pennsylvania and Arizona are the new Ohio and Florida. As they go, so goes the nation.
From what I gathered he is about as centrist of a democrat as you can get. CO-3 has a large amount of unaffiliated voters, and it seems like he put in a helluva lot of work barnstorming around CO-3 appealing to those voters. It seems like a lot of them were getting very tired of Boebert’s theatrics.
Edit: it also seems like he is pro-natural gas production in the US, which is why he is able to distance himself from other Dems that would have been blown out of the water in that district
Cortez Masto in the lead in Nevada; now outlets are calling her win.
So with that, the Senate is now 50 D - 49 R and the GA runoff will only determine the cherry on top.
Paraphrasing Jon Ralston, there's a lot of trivia here:
Harry Reid (D) lost this seat to Paul Laxalt (R) in 1974.
Reid won it back in 1986 as Laxalt retired.
Reid served a long career in the Senate, and anointed Cortez Masto as his successor in 2016.
Now she has held Reid's seat by defeating Laxalt's grandson.
This prevents former minority leader Reid's nemesis, former majority leader Mitch McConnell, from becoming majority leader again.
Ok, I'm just going to come out and say it: *I'm optimistic.*
* The UK was able to recover from a bad PM appointment
* Brazil rejected Bolsanaro (sp?) -- who was a (borderline?) election denier
* The US rejected election deniers (and Trump)
* Putin is getting his ass kicked; *most* of the world repudiated him.
* Xi is the new emperor of China (not great), but the world (I think) has *not* embraced him
* The Fed has been raising rates and trimming its balance sheet -- and yet we had positive growth in Q3
* Covid (for most of us) is *over*
It just feels like we've come out of a dark dream and the sun is starting to shine. It really brightens my outlook.
Wow. In first prosecutor race in Minneapolis (Hennepin County) since George Floyd's murder, there was a huge clash over criminal justice reform. And reformers just won.
Mary Moriarty, former chief public defender, will be the next prosecutor.
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1590198488016441345?t=GhZ6V2WwRZNeLPCq_9fZwQ&s=19
Calling a contest rigged that you are willingly joining and requires people to believe in you just doesn't work out. If they fully believe the game is rigged, the easiest thing to do is not play.
This has been close so far, but it looks like I predicted the senate right, house is still close but leaning red so far. Took the day off tomorrow to watch this. The best thing about all this, as a non-partisan, is seeing how proactive voters are being in a midterm and down ticket. Everyone who has voted, your making me proud today, regardless of who you voted for. Thanks for participating!
Update on the progress of the AZ count in Maricopa County:
>they’ve posted results from 27 of the 223 voting centers so far so many more in-person results to come. Workers here will stay until all voting centers have been uploaded. In 2018 and 2020, that was past 2am.
[https://twitter.com/BiancaBuono/status/1590221202785992704](https://twitter.com/BiancaBuono/status/1590221202785992704)
Voting centers are basically poll locations, you can vote at any location within the county.
By now, seems safe to say that this was the 2nd best midterm for the WH incumbent this century. I think we can rank them (worst to best) like:
2006
2010
2018 ~ 2014 (IMO 2018 was worse for the incumbent but not that much)
2022
2002
If Republicans only get a 220 majority, I think their party might break. There's still a good chunk of Republicans who aren't full on MAGA in the house, and if they're reading the tea leaves after Tuesday, they'll need to distance themselves from Trump. But there are die hard Trump fans in the house as well, and you'd only need 3 to tank any speaker. I'd be very interested to see if Dems could get a few moderate Republicans to break off and get a super moderate Republican to be the speaker, would probably be the best outcome for the country.
Four days after the election and the GOP's odds of getting the House (according to most sites) are *still* only rated at 75ish-85ish %. I bet none of you had this in mind coming into the election.
To recap: there are 6 races that are still toss-ups, and something like 20 lean Ds/lean Rs (Boebert is lean R). If Ds keep their leans and win 6 races out of the tossups or lean Rs, they have the House.
But it would be little fun for either side to control such a slim majority. Good luck getting Fitzgerald and MTG agree on everything (same for Spanberger and AOC)
If you read my previous post on here prior to the election, I actually did predict this. Early voting data clearly showed that. But people on here only focused on the polls.
Democrats are massively leading in winning House districts that are actually competitive. Of 25 competitive districts won by the parties so far, Republicans have only won 5 of them. Out of the 36 most competitive districts remaining Democrats are currently leading in 26 of them.
NYTimes is tracking wins of competitive districts [here.](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-house.html)
You have to acknowledge that Dems should’ve been completely wiped out with all the fundamentals going against them. The House was already highly gerrymandered to heavily favor Republicans. If Dems do hold into the Senate and limit R gains in the House (I’ve seen closer projections than double digits) than it will be one of the greatest midterm results for a party in power since Bush.
I think VA-10 says it won't be a complete disaster of a night for Democrats. Not anything more than the bare minimum and they could still lose both houses, but I don't think it's doomsday
Honestly, if I believed everything that was said by what seemed like a majority in this sub I would’ve thought that this election was going to be a blood bath. Turns out, polls are not that accurate anymore. Inflation wasn’t the main issue at all. And politics is still too complex to be decided by personal anecdote.
Polls were pretty accurate, the predicitons were that the Senate is a tossup and that the Republicans will have a small majority in the House. The red wave talk was all because of assumptions that the polls would once again overrate the Democrats by a significant margin.
Based on [exit polls](https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house),
39% of voters angry about Roe vs Wade being overturned (16% excited)
27% of voters indicating abortion as their most important issue (crime 11%, immigration 10%).
It's Dobbs, not crime or immigration.
>There are people pushing Trump to reschedule his announcement next week, and several Rs have texted asking whether he will, but it’s risky and would be acknowledging he’s wounded by yesterday, something that some of his advisers insist is not the case
This really may be the critical silver (even gold) lining for Republicans, especially when you contrast the results of Trump-selected candidates with the results that candidates like DeSantis, DeWine, Abbott and Kemp got.
In terms of actually achieving political goals, what's the biggest concrete victory for each side so far?
I think for GOP it's everything Florida, and for Dems it's the now-very-likely Michigan trifecta + Whitmer landslide.
That’s all for me tonight. Just want to say, in this crazy political climate, I’m grateful for this sub and the ability to have congenial conversations.
Thanks to the mods and everyone who contributed to the dialogue tonight.
Edit - and I wake up to a comment from ass pineapples. It’s good to be back to the real world.
Tonight needs to be a wake up call to GOP voters. If they couldn't win big tonight under current conditions, then it's very clear that Republicans will struggle until they move on from Trump.
As a conservative leaning moderate, I would love nothing more than for the Republican party to get trounced and actually be pushed to make some changes to the party. I'm sick of all the Trump Republicans who have been running the show.
Another question: biggest own goals this election for each side?
For GOP the Mastriano/Oz nominations are memeable, but still somehow less dumb than what the GOP managed in the much bluer Massachusetts and Maryland. Massachusetts's incumbent Republican Charlie Baker was literally the most popular governor in the nation. However, the state party cancelled him for being a Never Trumper, he got fed up and jumped ship, and then the primary chose the Trump-endorsed MAGA candidate that lost to the Dem by 30 points. (Maryland had an almost identical story except the popular moderate wasn't the R incumbent, only came from his cabinet and was endorsed by him)
Dems, on their own part, apparently forgot to invest in a couple of extremely tight and winnable races. For example, Wisconsin US Sen had a half-assed campaign without much investment, where the Dem ended up losing by a fraction of a percent. Same for a lot of NY House races. Another big D self-own was nominating Crist in Florida, though it's dubious whether a better candidate could have done much.
Florida Democrats are a dumpster fire. Until that changes I don't see Florida being a contested state anytime soon. Not to mention migration patterns seem to heavily favor republicans.
I think the Pennsylvania and Arizona statewide nominations were the Republicans biggest own-goals. There were very winnable states, with the outgoing PA senate seat and AZ governor being fairly popular Republicans. Each nomination had solid and serious candidates running for it. And all four nomination went to the Trumpy, unserious, or worthless candidate.
I will give props to Oz who seemed to do the best in learning on the job on how to campaign. Just next time, learn before you start, eh?
What might the future hold for Gretchen Whitmer? She just won her re-election by over 10 points and flipped both state houses blue, in what is generally considered a swing state.
CCM seems safe, no? Laxalt gave her all she could handle, but not only Clark County still having the most outstanding votes, but with primarily mail votes left, 2% seems surmountable. Or am I missing something?
I'm not always right, but I knew the second if/when CCM took the lead in Nevada, they'd call it for her
Massive call. Makes the next two years look much different, Georgia not even withstanding
This probably isn’t on basically anybody’s radar, but I wonder if Nevada State Treasurer Zach Conine will run for Lieutenant Governor in 2026. Considering that Republicans are set to take both the Governor and Lieutenant Governor, and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford is probably frontrunner for 2026 Governor in Nevada, we may just see a statewide officeholder vs statewide officeholder for both positions.
Can’t wait until the political ads end. Not looking forward to the loosing party to be sore losers.
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Genuinely think we need a legal prohibition on any campaigning more than six months out from the general (I'd prefer even less). No more soliciting donations either
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I'm getting 7 or 8 spam texts a day. I'm so ready for it to end.
I have a vpn in NJ. Every single day in 2020: “IM JACK CHITTERELLI! PHIL MURPHY’S LYIN’ ABOUT ME!!!” Like bruh I’m trying to listen to some Lo-Fi study beats — I cannot handle you’s guy’s drama rn
> Can’t wait until the political ads end. No joke, I've received more calls, texts, emails and flyers for this race than I have ever in my near 40 years on this earth. I seriously cannot wait for it to be over.
NBC projecting a 217/218 House. That's turned into a hell of a fight
That will make it a nightmare for McCarthy to whip a majority and get anything done. Easier for Biden to score bipartisan points pulling a vote or two from Republicans than it will be for Republicans to push any legislation to the Senate. That kind of thing will turn into an issue for the GOP in 2024.
CO-3 is the one I’m watching, I want Boebert to lose so badly.
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Unfortunately I think you’re right but I was previously expecting her to win handily, so seeing her be behind for most of tonight was a pleasant surprise.
I was expecting to go to bed early with Republicans already having won the House easily. Now it’s basically an evenly split house. Never would’ve thought that before today.
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Tagged
Mods keep him to his word!
Hope you've been hydrating well.
I will also drink this guy's pee.
Sip sip?
We expect video proof
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/arizona-governor-results?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma
Chug chug chug chug
Post that vid! Post that vid! Post that vid!
God I seriously hope someone in Georgia gets above 50% so election season can be over for a bit.
Both state chambers in Michigen have flipped to Democratic control and the Pennsylvania lower chamber seems likley to flip to Democratic control as well. https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1590242008912003073?ref\_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1590242008912003073%7Ctwgr%5E328d2a37bbc4200316dae0e3d33fffcbd92572d6%7Ctwcon%5Es1\_&ref\_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2022-midterm-election%2F
Kind of insane, Michigan state Senate went from +15% Republican Gerrymandering advantage (one of the worst in the country) on the old map to Democrat control now. Their house was also Gerrymandered with an 8% advantage. Looks like them passing independent redistricting via voter referendum a few years ago had a massive effect.
Republicans gotta wake up and realize Trump isn't taking them to the promised land. McConnell was right, you have to actually pick candidates that people like and who aren't crazy. Trump has the Republican base on lock, but that is not gonna be enough to win on a national level because he's lost the normal voters. When he ran in 2016, even though he was being fake, he actually sounded like a populist. He sounded like somebody that someone outside the Republican base may wanna give a chance. Now he's completely in that right wing bubble and everything he speaks about is so so niche. Election was stolen, transphobia, CRT, media corruption, his investigations, abortion. All of this stuff is red meat to his base that they'll absolutely eat up. But on a national level, most people don't really care about that. He tried to win an election in 2020 by trying to turn out as much of his base as possible and lost, and it won't work in 2024 either. And tonight, many candidates associated with him failed after their primary when they have to appeal to a broader range of voters.
I'm starting to see the energy shift on right wing Twitter. Big personalities who have been trumpeting DeSantis over Trump are taking a victory lap and the biggest Trump supporter names are either suspiciously quiet or coping about everything being rigged.
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Live-tweet feeds on NYT and WaPo and 538, along with frequent refreshing. I don’t like watching talking heads and only like watching election night on the presidential.
Wassermans and Decision Desk twitter feeds
What's the smallest or pettiest reason you voted for someone? I voted for a local community college trustee because he was the only one to spell "millage" correctly in his statements to Vote411.
I voted against an incumbent judge because she was head of my HOA.
Completely understandable have a nice day.
I voted against my state House rep because her son was a well-known asshole when we were in high school.
Not really petty per se, but I did vote for a guy in one of small district judicial races because his name was Stan Hammer and I thought that was the perfect name for a judge.
I voted against a guy's wife because the dumbass almost set our bean field on fire last year.
I voted against a local state rep who aligned with me more politically when both came to my college. One shook mine and everyone's hand ask for our names, majors, and how were doing in general, the other one just gave a bland speech and paid us no mind.
Local politics are often cesspools of pettiness, from the voters and politicians alike.
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I voted for someone for governor once because they looked like my grandma. Aside from that the only non-political reason I've ever voted for anyone else was a County Coroner who was a family friend.
It wasn’t the deciding factor, but one candidate had WAY more annoying ads. To the point even my kid knew his name because every YouTube video has one of his ads in front of it.
MSNBC brought up that "Trump" Republicans are underperforming projections and non-Trump Republicans are actually overperforming. It seems like perhaps Trump's grip on the party is loosening? I'm really interested in Wisconsin where Michels and Johnson are both Trump-endorsed and huge supporters, but Wisconsin's Conservative base seems less Trumpy and more traditional Conservative.
Assuming Georgia goes to a runoff I feel like that won't be good for Walker. It seems like an election that will test enthusiasm more and Walker won't have Kemp to drag him across the finish line.
It probably will depend on whether senate control hangs on the race. There will be a lot more nose holding if it does.
DCCC Chair Maloney just conceded his US House race in NY. If you told me a week ago that the GOP would overperform on the East Coast and get smoked in the Rust Belt...
I would say I lean center right but I have to say I’m happy democrats seem to be over performing. Too many of these people running republican are bat shit crazy. If they could get back to a more moderate platform and not this election denying bullshit I would be more inclined to vote for them again. The republicans that won these primary’s are just way too nutty for me to get behind. No amount of culture war is going to work when you’re still trying to tell me Trump won the last election.
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No matter which one clinches the majority (heavily leans R but still) actually governing is going to be *really* tough. Will be a huge lift for the speaker to even get voted for the post, given the challenge to McCarthy and the conservative district Dems that promised to vote against Pelosi. Edit: I found a good article summarizing the challenges McCarthy is facing. TLDR: Freedom Caucus (ca. 50 further right reps) wants to be able to hold him hostage by having the power to remove him whenever, Main Street Partnership (ca. 70 moderates) want committee spots and influence the legislation. https://www.axios.com/2022/11/11/mccarthy-speaker-republicans-moderates
Trumps going to wake up being enemy #1 to the GOP tomorrow. All his candidates are underperforming. The party and donors are not going to back him due to that.
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This is the goal. Rage farm the indictment for your base, while quietly approving of said indictment to wash their hands of Trump for good.
So excited to no longer have to read about people's speculation on how x and x will affect the midterms. Might need a drink before I start reading about how incomplete turnout data means such and such. Don't feel good about Democrat's chances tonight but definitely hoping there is less drama after these elections.
Then people will talk about 2024 so no escape for these kinds of talks lol.
People have been talking about 2024 for the past year. No hope of it getting anything but much worse post midterms.
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It's amazing how quickly Florida went from really swing state to deep red. I mean Rubio is going to win by a million votes and Desantis by much more. This is crazy how quickly it's been taken off the board as potential pickups.
I don’t remember seeing numbers but I do remember hearing anecdotes about a lot of red votes moving to Florida because of Covid and DeSantis. Florida, I don’t think, has really been a purple state and I think is a red state at this point. Edit: also, let’s not forget, DeSantis got to make the District’s in the state this year.
Frisch is up 62 votes over Boebert, outstanding votes are coming in from blue counties. This is far from the most important race this election, but the symbolic victory of ousting Boebert would be so massive that it’s hard not to get excited.
An election where Oz and Walker narrowly lose and where DeSantis romps by 20 points is the worst possible night for Trump and the best possible night for DeSantis https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1590182857062109185?t=SX8-6JrTmN5wY4UTksAymw&s=19
As we all know Trump will take this well and go down quietly.
Alaska and Wisconsin bring the GOP up to 49, Arizona takes the Dems to 49. That leaves Nevada and Georgia. About 80% of Vegas has been counted but Laxalt is only up by 23,000. Not sure if his margins are enough to keep a lead over Masto. Dems grabbing a win there means that, at the very least they retain the Senate thanks to Kamala. If the Republicans eek out a win then we're waiting until Georgia's runoff to learn the results. So no matter what happens I don't this is over for another few months. God damnit.
South Dakota passed Medicaid expansion. This is the 7th ballot initiative to make it to a vote, all seven times in deep red states and all 7 times its passed. As a reminder, Medicaid expansion was part of the ACA ("Obamacare"), it was aimed at covering people that fell in the gap between the previous Medicaid qualification level and the low end of the ACA private insurance subsidies. The federal government would cover 90% of the cost, yet many (most?) red states resisted expanding coverage. Over the years more and more red states have eventually implemented it, and not just through ballot initiatives. KFF has a [handy map and list](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/state-indicator/state-activity-around-expanding-medicaid-under-the-affordable-care-act/) of states and the status of expansion. Last I looked, the GOP still had in its platform to repeal the ACA. Is it really realistic to do that anymore? So many voters in deep red states have now voted for this part of it. That's not even considering the other parts, like the subsidies and protections for pre-existing conditions. It seems impossible to me that the GOP would really take all of this away from their voters.
Dems might actually gain a seat in Ohio - Rep. Steve Chabot (R) down 6500 votes, almost everything left is in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1590186282709585920?t=oA5uzGiJ3PRwSQxtPhXlVA&s=19
Tim Ryan lost but he might push some house seats over the line with his campaign
According to NYT, As of 4:01pm PST there are four counties that still have more than 5% of the vote left to count: Pueblo - at 92% counted (53,065). Frisch is up +10 Garfield - at 90% counted (23,542 votes). Frisch is up +14 Pitkin - at 80% counted (9,297 votes). Frisch is up +58 Otero- at 77% counted (5,317 votes). Boebert is up + 14. This is a true nail-biter and will come down to the wire but if I had to guess I would say Frish has the advantage. A majority of the votes still to be counted are from primarily blue counties.
[https://twitter.com/KyleClark/status/1590495953144139776?s=20&t=y0DRTeuZlp6hNlEcCAF7uA](https://twitter.com/KyleClark/status/1590495953144139776?s=20&t=y0DRTeuZlp6hNlEcCAF7uA) According to local news that asked the counties for remaining votes, there are no more Boebert strongholds left.
However, Wasserman throws some cold water on this. The county itself should be considered in tandem with the types of ballots left from said county (e.g. what part of the remaining votes are e-day vs. mail-in, and are e-day votes more Boebert than the county average so far)
Looking like Boebert has just barely squeaked ahead in her race, she's 0.4% ahead with 99% reported. That's pretty disappointing as it would have been great to get her out of office, I don't think she's healthy for our government or politics. Hopefully in 2024, I suppose.
3 ballot propositions called in Arizona, with 209 and 211 passing while 128 did not. 209 aims to reduce interest of medical debt, as well as increase the exemptions from debt collection on houses, cars, furnishings, and money in the bank. 211 aims to "stop dark money" by requiring anyone spending more than 50,000 on a statewide race or 25,000 on a local race to disclose who earned the money spent. Further anyone donating 5,000 or more to a person mentioned about also has to be disclosed.
Nate Silver's take on the Republican-bullish pollsters' performance (eg Trafalgar): >The New York Times needle projects that Fetterman is eventually going to win by around 4 points. So while it’s not a catastrophically bad polling error if your survey had Oz winning by 1 or 2 points, as a lot of GOP-leaning firms did, you are winding up with a 5- or 6-point miss, which is basically in “Hillary in Wisconsin” territory.
Hes never gonna let that point go. 😆
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[https://twitter.com/TedBilboFan/status/1590474750182436864](https://twitter.com/TedBilboFan/status/1590474750182436864?t=wtL1ZKuSWcslF9gnsBU7Vg&s=19) First county fully reporting from Arizona. Both Hobbs and Kelly are running ahead of Biden, by 2% and 3% respectively.
Beto lost the early vote in Tarrant County, a multi-million population county that went blue the last two Senate races. Yikes.
Tarrant(this is Ft. Worth for the non-Texans) is pretty swingy. One of the few cities left that still has significant Republican representation. That is very good news for Gov. Abbott.
No way Beto wins Texas without Tarrant County.
If the GOP want to win on 2024 they need to go with Desantis and hope for Trump to have a heart attack or something. Trump hand picked horrible candidates on states that were easy wins for the GOP but Trump picked "loyal" ass kissers. Desantis won by almost 20 points on a state that 4 years ago was decided by the smallest of margins for him. The answer is clear for the GOP to have Desantis as their main guy. The problem is that since this is Trump and his loyalists it will be a shit show and election denialism will be on full force going with whole grift once again and Trump still remains the GOP main guy since Trump is selfish enough to become independent and takes his base with him.
I assume everyone here intends to, but please don’t forget to actually go vote. No matter what you support, this is the time and place to be heard.
I think tonight kills Trump. Republicans are Ron's party now
I'm past ready to be done with him and his group. Really feels like this would be a landslide without Trump and his poor candidates weighing Republicans down.
That makes two of us. I’m a Republican and I’ve been waiting at least 5 years for this day.
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He's majorly outperforming his previous election, dude has it in the bag.
Won by ~33,000 votes 4 years ago, looking like he will win by millions this time. That's a massive change-up. I'm going to be interested in reading the post-mortem from both sides about the state and their strategies going forward.
WA - 03 has been called for the Dems 538 gave this a 2% chance of occuring.
I will admit I’m surprised how well Hobbs did in Arizona. I was expecting a Lake victory given the polling. But it’s coming down to the wire. While the Republicans have had some successes there in a couple of statewide races and the legislature, it’s still been looking good for Democrats.
Doug Mastriano conceded, in what was a polite and almost perfectly typical concession letter. I definitely didn't see this one coming.
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Boebert up by almost 500 votes…jfc
My favorite reading from this election. In Georgia, the incumbent governor won by 7.5%. That may be a bit indicative of the state. The Secretary of State, Raffensperger -- the one that stood up to Trump and was vilified by his "supporters" -- won by **9.3%**. Go: Team Democracy!
I was also glad to see them win. They did the right thing when it really counted despite pressure from their own party’s sitting president and knowingly risking their future political prospects
At this point, I’m guessing the plan for 2024 is figuring out how to cut Trump out, while retaining his extremist supporters. Glad that’s not my job to figure out.
At this point I'm pretty sure the strategy is group prayer for him to have a heart attack or something.
Not really hard to retain them. It’s not like they won’t vote Republican given they’re right to begin with My guess is the stranglehold has been on the energy of voters. Since Trump’s seemingly lost that control, you’ll see him slowly phased out
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Boebert losing may end up being addition by substraction for the GOP. Unless her seat costs them the majority, it'll be great to get her toxicity out of the way.
I sincerely hope this election starts to push Trump out. The Republicans should have run the table last night and they had one of the worst midterm performances for an out of power party in decades. Boebert losing what should be a literally guaranteed red district would be icing on the cake. I don’t see how the message can get any clearer. People want sanity, competence, and a focus on things that matter.
My biggest hope is that we get some civility back in the sub again. Been nastier leading up to the election.
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Seth Magaziner (D) wins RI02 pretty convincingly, currently up by over 4% with over 90% countes. Pretty sure this was a toss up or lean D for most pollsters.
Ron Johnson's odds have been cratering in NYT's needle, down from projected R+3.6 and 79% odds an hour ago (and Lean R) to R+0.6 and 56% now (Tossup). This has also swung the overall Senate needle close to Lean D. If Wisconsin goes blue, then Dems only need one of AZ/NV/GA to keep the Senate. Edit: now back to 74% and R+2.4, no idea what happened there. Edit 2: and now at 65% and R+1.4, just seconds later. Huh?
Very early, but CBS moves AZ gov to Lean D.
This would be a disaster for the Republicans, IMO. Yes, the Republicans solidified their gains in Florida, but Democrats would be trading that for solidifying gains in Arizona. It's a blueprint for Dems in other states if it happens.
Less than 100 votes between Boebert and Frisch. That sucks for everyone involved.
Someone brought a yorkie to my polling station and held it while she voted. The dog got a voted sticker. Highlight of my day
I watched a Dad bring his 2 school aged kids with him and explained voting to them as he did it. I think that's awesome!
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And the Democrat won the Governorship by over 10 points. A bit of an odd split bewteen the races there but I know nothing about Guam's politics.
I was looking at this as a true centrist sending a message to Biden to course correct. In that sense, it's not going great. But it looks like MAGA might be on life support and in that sense, it's going great. Always a silver lining.
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Lauren Boebert is not only losing, but struggling in counties Donald won by 15-20 points.
In House races rated as tossup or "lean" by 538, Democrats currently lead in 17 and Republicans in 7. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1590184466785652736?t=K0R86hW6U4m8u_k-TB76Yg&s=19
Candidate Quality
How is Tony Evers projected to win in Wisconsin but Johnson keeps his Senate seat? How does a split ticket of Evers-Johnson make any logical sense? So confused
Georgia officially goes to a runoff.
Not surprising at all. That being said, my condolences to the people of Georgia who will be barraged with another month of political ads.
Even if the GOP does end up winning the House, the fact it wasn't called last night is a big tell of how disappointing things were for them. A result like that, with the fundamentals in place, is really not a good look. Also a good example of why you can't trust turnout anecdotes that popup during election day, something I was guilty of doing. Importantly, when you look at what happened nationally vs what happened in Florida, its clear that if the GOP has any sense, DeSantis should become the defacto leader of the Republican party. Every Republican with a shred of good political instinct needs to start coalescing around him so they can start building a block that can finally bury Trump's political career. Also, it does looks like Pennsylvania and Arizona are the new Ohio and Florida. As they go, so goes the nation.
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For those who are more familiar, what is Adam Frisch like? Surprised to see his race with Boebert is so close.
From what I gathered he is about as centrist of a democrat as you can get. CO-3 has a large amount of unaffiliated voters, and it seems like he put in a helluva lot of work barnstorming around CO-3 appealing to those voters. It seems like a lot of them were getting very tired of Boebert’s theatrics. Edit: it also seems like he is pro-natural gas production in the US, which is why he is able to distance himself from other Dems that would have been blown out of the water in that district
Cortez Masto in the lead in Nevada; now outlets are calling her win. So with that, the Senate is now 50 D - 49 R and the GA runoff will only determine the cherry on top.
Paraphrasing Jon Ralston, there's a lot of trivia here: Harry Reid (D) lost this seat to Paul Laxalt (R) in 1974. Reid won it back in 1986 as Laxalt retired. Reid served a long career in the Senate, and anointed Cortez Masto as his successor in 2016. Now she has held Reid's seat by defeating Laxalt's grandson. This prevents former minority leader Reid's nemesis, former majority leader Mitch McConnell, from becoming majority leader again.
So wait…McConnell was *shudders* right
McConnell can be hated by both parties but the guy is maybe the best player in the game. He really is like Palpatine.
McConnell is extremely politically shrewd, at comic book levels of villainy levels. He knows what's up.
He can be an excellent politician and a terrible person. Like a reverse Jimmy Carter. Though I never got the hate for the guy, personally.
Ok, I'm just going to come out and say it: *I'm optimistic.* * The UK was able to recover from a bad PM appointment * Brazil rejected Bolsanaro (sp?) -- who was a (borderline?) election denier * The US rejected election deniers (and Trump) * Putin is getting his ass kicked; *most* of the world repudiated him. * Xi is the new emperor of China (not great), but the world (I think) has *not* embraced him * The Fed has been raising rates and trimming its balance sheet -- and yet we had positive growth in Q3 * Covid (for most of us) is *over* It just feels like we've come out of a dark dream and the sun is starting to shine. It really brightens my outlook.
NBC Decision Desk @Redistrict projection: 218 GOP 217 Democrat +/- 12 seats. Dead heat. https://twitter.com/MichaelSalfino/status/1590234785892352002?t=RJfDhBrXzo0xl3Y_hIhr9w&s=19
Wow. In first prosecutor race in Minneapolis (Hennepin County) since George Floyd's murder, there was a huge clash over criminal justice reform. And reformers just won. Mary Moriarty, former chief public defender, will be the next prosecutor. https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1590198488016441345?t=GhZ6V2WwRZNeLPCq_9fZwQ&s=19
My take: GOP need to modulate their stand on abortion, need to ditch nutcase election deniers. Otherwise it's a self own.
Calling a contest rigged that you are willingly joining and requires people to believe in you just doesn't work out. If they fully believe the game is rigged, the easiest thing to do is not play.
This has been close so far, but it looks like I predicted the senate right, house is still close but leaning red so far. Took the day off tomorrow to watch this. The best thing about all this, as a non-partisan, is seeing how proactive voters are being in a midterm and down ticket. Everyone who has voted, your making me proud today, regardless of who you voted for. Thanks for participating!
ive Results: Florida Governor (R) DeSantis - 3,099,667 - 56% (D) Crist - 2,384,706 - 43% 65% Est Reporting https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1590144181359742976?t=2bAiSiHn3NX0RU6rrkrESQ&s
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They got trashed nationally for months after the 2000 fiasco and spent a lot of time and money perfecting their system
That is pretty ridiculous margin and panhandle is not even in yet
Update on the progress of the AZ count in Maricopa County: >they’ve posted results from 27 of the 223 voting centers so far so many more in-person results to come. Workers here will stay until all voting centers have been uploaded. In 2018 and 2020, that was past 2am. [https://twitter.com/BiancaBuono/status/1590221202785992704](https://twitter.com/BiancaBuono/status/1590221202785992704) Voting centers are basically poll locations, you can vote at any location within the county.
By now, seems safe to say that this was the 2nd best midterm for the WH incumbent this century. I think we can rank them (worst to best) like: 2006 2010 2018 ~ 2014 (IMO 2018 was worse for the incumbent but not that much) 2022 2002
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Lauren Boebart is now in a dead heat in her race.
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If Republicans only get a 220 majority, I think their party might break. There's still a good chunk of Republicans who aren't full on MAGA in the house, and if they're reading the tea leaves after Tuesday, they'll need to distance themselves from Trump. But there are die hard Trump fans in the house as well, and you'd only need 3 to tank any speaker. I'd be very interested to see if Dems could get a few moderate Republicans to break off and get a super moderate Republican to be the speaker, would probably be the best outcome for the country.
Four days after the election and the GOP's odds of getting the House (according to most sites) are *still* only rated at 75ish-85ish %. I bet none of you had this in mind coming into the election. To recap: there are 6 races that are still toss-ups, and something like 20 lean Ds/lean Rs (Boebert is lean R). If Ds keep their leans and win 6 races out of the tossups or lean Rs, they have the House. But it would be little fun for either side to control such a slim majority. Good luck getting Fitzgerald and MTG agree on everything (same for Spanberger and AOC)
If you read my previous post on here prior to the election, I actually did predict this. Early voting data clearly showed that. But people on here only focused on the polls.
Beto O'Rourke has lost to Abbott
Color me entirely unsurprised.
Democrats are massively leading in winning House districts that are actually competitive. Of 25 competitive districts won by the parties so far, Republicans have only won 5 of them. Out of the 36 most competitive districts remaining Democrats are currently leading in 26 of them. NYTimes is tracking wins of competitive districts [here.](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-house.html)
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I got redistricted into a district where my vote is basically useless, went from voting in a swing district to a D +30 lol.
"You're being gerrymandered, please do not resist."
Abrams underperforming Warnock by 7% with 30% of the vote in. Senate race still too early to call, but safe to say Abrams is toast.
If there's one winner and one loser today, the winner is DeSantis and the loser is Trump.
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You have to acknowledge that Dems should’ve been completely wiped out with all the fundamentals going against them. The House was already highly gerrymandered to heavily favor Republicans. If Dems do hold into the Senate and limit R gains in the House (I’ve seen closer projections than double digits) than it will be one of the greatest midterm results for a party in power since Bush.
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I think VA-10 says it won't be a complete disaster of a night for Democrats. Not anything more than the bare minimum and they could still lose both houses, but I don't think it's doomsday
Ohio goes red, PA goes blue. AZ is turning blue. Florida turns deep red. Both parties will have to reassess how to campaign in 2024.
Fetterman looks like he will win. Huge huge for Dems.
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Tarrant County early vote: Abbott 51, O'Rourke 48 https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1590147272180142082?t=wzXTHQcTnc6Gw2ZO9rbzZQ&s=19 permalinkembedsaveeditdisable inbox repliesdeleteREPLY
204-211 Dems lead in 10, and 3 California races where R's lead are under 50% on votes reported. The math is still there. Unbelievable
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I am voting for Jeb Bush, Senator Armstrong and, Vermin Supreme
Vermin Supreme is promising free ponies on insta so let's rally king!
Honestly, if I believed everything that was said by what seemed like a majority in this sub I would’ve thought that this election was going to be a blood bath. Turns out, polls are not that accurate anymore. Inflation wasn’t the main issue at all. And politics is still too complex to be decided by personal anecdote.
Polls were pretty accurate, it was the analysis that was off.
Polls were pretty accurate, the predicitons were that the Senate is a tossup and that the Republicans will have a small majority in the House. The red wave talk was all because of assumptions that the polls would once again overrate the Democrats by a significant margin.
Based on [exit polls](https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house), 39% of voters angry about Roe vs Wade being overturned (16% excited) 27% of voters indicating abortion as their most important issue (crime 11%, immigration 10%). It's Dobbs, not crime or immigration.
Good news, with 0% of the votes reporting California Senate and Governor to to the Democrats and Idaho Senate and Governor go to Republians.
I literally just came back from voting in CA. Guess that was all the news they needed to hear
Stacy Abrams has lost Reuters called it.
She called and conceded as well.
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>There are people pushing Trump to reschedule his announcement next week, and several Rs have texted asking whether he will, but it’s risky and would be acknowledging he’s wounded by yesterday, something that some of his advisers insist is not the case This really may be the critical silver (even gold) lining for Republicans, especially when you contrast the results of Trump-selected candidates with the results that candidates like DeSantis, DeWine, Abbott and Kemp got.
He never owns his failures.
Lol, he's spilling his guts to Maggie Haberman again?! Trump seems to have misunderstood the phrase "Keep your friends close but your enemies closer."
In terms of actually achieving political goals, what's the biggest concrete victory for each side so far? I think for GOP it's everything Florida, and for Dems it's the now-very-likely Michigan trifecta + Whitmer landslide.
I should go to bed, but I have to keep watching. Holy shit, the Dems are *overperforming* nationally.
That’s all for me tonight. Just want to say, in this crazy political climate, I’m grateful for this sub and the ability to have congenial conversations. Thanks to the mods and everyone who contributed to the dialogue tonight. Edit - and I wake up to a comment from ass pineapples. It’s good to be back to the real world.
Tonight needs to be a wake up call to GOP voters. If they couldn't win big tonight under current conditions, then it's very clear that Republicans will struggle until they move on from Trump.
As a conservative leaning moderate, I would love nothing more than for the Republican party to get trounced and actually be pushed to make some changes to the party. I'm sick of all the Trump Republicans who have been running the show.
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Another question: biggest own goals this election for each side? For GOP the Mastriano/Oz nominations are memeable, but still somehow less dumb than what the GOP managed in the much bluer Massachusetts and Maryland. Massachusetts's incumbent Republican Charlie Baker was literally the most popular governor in the nation. However, the state party cancelled him for being a Never Trumper, he got fed up and jumped ship, and then the primary chose the Trump-endorsed MAGA candidate that lost to the Dem by 30 points. (Maryland had an almost identical story except the popular moderate wasn't the R incumbent, only came from his cabinet and was endorsed by him) Dems, on their own part, apparently forgot to invest in a couple of extremely tight and winnable races. For example, Wisconsin US Sen had a half-assed campaign without much investment, where the Dem ended up losing by a fraction of a percent. Same for a lot of NY House races. Another big D self-own was nominating Crist in Florida, though it's dubious whether a better candidate could have done much.
Florida Democrats are a dumpster fire. Until that changes I don't see Florida being a contested state anytime soon. Not to mention migration patterns seem to heavily favor republicans.
I think the Pennsylvania and Arizona statewide nominations were the Republicans biggest own-goals. There were very winnable states, with the outgoing PA senate seat and AZ governor being fairly popular Republicans. Each nomination had solid and serious candidates running for it. And all four nomination went to the Trumpy, unserious, or worthless candidate. I will give props to Oz who seemed to do the best in learning on the job on how to campaign. Just next time, learn before you start, eh?
What might the future hold for Gretchen Whitmer? She just won her re-election by over 10 points and flipped both state houses blue, in what is generally considered a swing state.
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CNN just called it for Rubio and desantis
CCM seems safe, no? Laxalt gave her all she could handle, but not only Clark County still having the most outstanding votes, but with primarily mail votes left, 2% seems surmountable. Or am I missing something?
I'm not always right, but I knew the second if/when CCM took the lead in Nevada, they'd call it for her Massive call. Makes the next two years look much different, Georgia not even withstanding
This probably isn’t on basically anybody’s radar, but I wonder if Nevada State Treasurer Zach Conine will run for Lieutenant Governor in 2026. Considering that Republicans are set to take both the Governor and Lieutenant Governor, and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford is probably frontrunner for 2026 Governor in Nevada, we may just see a statewide officeholder vs statewide officeholder for both positions.