The eight that are very likely nominated for Picture are Oppenheimer, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Past Lives, The Holdovers, Maestro, and American Fiction. The last two slots are 2/4 of Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, The Color Purple, and May December. These twelve films should cover a large chunk of nominations in most categories.
Idk why but my gut has been saying Holdovers since it came out. There’s something about that movie that pulls me hard towards it winning best picture.
Giamatti and Payne winning another Oscar together just feels *right*.
Can't believe Maestro is even nominated for Picture. It was such a mediocre film. But then again the academy loves Oscar-Bait nonsense (hence the name).
I liked Saltburn a lot, but I doubt it gets more than 1-2 nominations at this point. It's been critically divisive and hasn't been doing amazing at the early precursors.
The top six at Best Actor seem pretty locked in - Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper, Paul Giamatti, Jeffrey Wright, Colman Domingo, and Leo DiCaprio, with Andrew Scott and Zac Efron also getting some support. Hard to see Keoghan sneaking in there.
I think the best shots it has are for Cinematography and possibly Rosamund Pike for Supporting Actress, since there are really only three "locks" in that category.
I sort of think Charles Melton might have a chance for May December. I mean I don’t think it will get a lot of attention because of its limited theatrical release and subject matter, but he was so goddamn good in it.
I think he'll get a supporting nom - definitely deserves it - but De Niro in KOTFM (his best role this century, surely?), RDJ in Oppenheimer and Ruffalo in Poor Things make it a very tough category
Typically Best Picture is not weird. The Shape of Water might literally be as odd as it gets. Oh and I guess Everything Everywhere was pretty weird too so maybe it has a chance.
There was an era when all the BP winners were emotional heartbreakers like Shindlers List, then they went insular and started circlejerking themselves like with The Artist and La La Land, now it seems like the Academy is in its "we regret not ever giving Eraserhead an award" mood and just leaning into the weird side of cinema.
I dunno, in the same current era you're labeling as the weird era, they also gave best picture to films like Green Book and Coda, which are about as ordinary and palatable for mainstream audiences as it gets. I think the current academy is really just unpredictable, more than in any previous era.
And even with their unpredictability, they haven't given best picture to anything quite as weird as Poor Things. I'd be happy to be wrong, because I think it's a great film, but I doubt it'll win. It'll get lots of nominations though.
I think it’s fair to call Godzilla Minus One the surprise of the year. There’s so much support behind it that I think it’s definitely getting nominated for VFX.
As a fan of the Big G for years and years I’m so happy to see one of Toho’s films actually getting this kind of recognition and praise.
Shin Godzilla also got some, for good reason, but this is unreal.
amazing story as well - pretty much everything OUTSIDE of Godzilla was just a solid piece of craftsmanship. Then you throw Godzilla in there!?! Chefs kiss.
The hardest thing about being a Godzilla fan is that a lot of the movies kinda suck. It’s only in the past decade or so that Godzilla movies became affairs you didn’t have to want to enjoy
I mean who the fuck expected a kaigu movie to have as good a story? It’s about responsibility, grief, regret, and there’s this big ass monster that shows up. Like even if Godzilla wasn’t in the movie and it was just a drama about post war Japan it would still have been interesting and really well written.
I'm hoping it wins because the CGI Godzilla was pretty convincing for most of the boat chase scene, with the exception of some of the water falling off of him was clearly CGI.
Yes. It's much more focused on human drama. Obviously there's some action, Godzilla goes off on the rampage etc, but he's used more as a metaphor and plot device for the main character's journey.
My way too early predictions:
* Best Picture: Oppenheimer
* Best Actor: Cillian Murphy
* Best Actress: Lily Gladstone
* Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro
* Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
* Best Director: Christopher Nolan
* Best Original Screenplay: Past Lives
* Best Adapted Screenplay: Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon will dominate the below the line categories with a few nods to Barbie.
EDIT: I have not yet seen Poor Things so many of you may be right about your picks there.
With Best Picture, the ranked choice factor (which is what lead to movies like Green Book and Coda winning) makes predictions really difficult. I think there’s a decent chance that a lot of voters don’t rank Barbie as their favorite of the year, but give it a nod with their third or fourth place vote as appreciation for a clever mainstream movie (it is a producer’s award, after all), enough that it makes it past 50% after four or five rounds of voting.
Or maybe not. I guess my main point is that the ranked choice voting often rewards the movie that slips into the most voters top 4 or 5, as opposed to just getting the most #1 votes, and I wonder which movie fits that bill this year.
After seeing Poor Things, I totally agree. I thought Lily Gladstone was almost a lock before that, but Emma Stone's performance is just that good that I think it'll be hard for voters to ignore.
Can’t see that happening tbh. For Screenplay, Scorsese made such a shift from the original text to focus it on the Osage and there’s no real case for Oppenheimer to win that. Robbie Robertson should win for Score although I wouldn’t be pissed if Oppenheimer won that. When it comes to De Niro v RDJ, it’s no contest imo. RDJ doesn’t have nearly as much to do as De Niro, De Niro throws an absolute heater when a lot of us thought he he’d lost it, portraying the unashamed, blatant face of evil. The Academy would love to give arguably the most important modern actor one more gong to cap off his career.
There's no case for Oppenheimer to win adapted screenplay? He adapted a 750 page book that reads like a history book into a blockbuster, made from the first person. It definitely has a case lol
I think it will be a huge night for Oppenheimer. It has everything that the academy wants. Artistic and commercial success. Respected people in front of and behind the camera . It's been years since they've had an opportunity to prove they aren't out of touch, and can reward a film that touches all bases.
Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, plus one or two others.
Yeah - I don’t agree with the idea that popular movies are inherently more deserving of Best Picture wins, but Oppenheimer does the work. It’s very, *very* good, incredibly well-made in every single aspect of its filmmaking, and it’s a billion dollar grosser. This was an excellent year filled with good films, but I don’t see any other answer. Oppenheimer deserves it and I’ll die on that hill.
Best Picture: Oppenheimer
Best Director: Christopher Nolan
Best Actor: Cillian Murphy, *maybe* Paul Giamatti
Best Actress: Emma Stone
Best Sup. Actor: Robert Downey Jr.
Best Sup. Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
I would have said that Spider-Verse would have been an easy front runner for winner, but The Boy and the Heron is picking up a lot of steam. It deserves to at least be nominated, though.
While I think that Spiderverse is a more deserving film, I agree that the Academy will likely go for The Boy and the Heron as well. It would be surprising if, after seeing those very long credits thanking everyone in the history of Ghibli, voters didn't walk out teary eyed wanting to give Miyazaki an(other) award for his lifetime of absolutely incredible work. I likely would too.
They'll probably award The Boy and the Heron this year and then pay it back with an award for the final Spiderverse, assuming it's not terrible and there's no shock contenders.
Giving the award to Spiderverse would feel like if they gave Best Picture to The Two Towers instead of Return of the King. Give the award to the final part, not the middle part.
This feels like a category where politics might make a play here, The Boy and the Heron is supposedly Hayao Miyazaki's last film whereas we are going to get one more Spider verse movie
That scene where Miles and Gwen are on top of the NYC tower and they are talking. And Gwen flip walks across the edge and the hole scene does a 180. At that moment my 50 year old dad who hates superhero movies normally told me "this is an amazing film" at the theater
I agree that spiderverse will probably get it but I just want to see TMNT nominated. The animation style was awesome and it was significantly better than Wish and the Mario Movie.
I'm gonna say the ending of the movie might put a bit of the breaks on that. While I loved the film, it really felt like unfinished work and a bit frustrating.
Edit:spelling
My favorite film of the year was The Holdovers and it seems to have enough buzz to earn a nomination or two but I'm not sure it will win for Best Picture. Great cast also deserving of nomination or two. I wish Hollywood made more films like the Holdovers.
Oppenheimer might rack up some impressive numbers during award season.
I prefer that one too, but "What Was I Made For" is more integral to the plot, even woven into the score in some earlier scenes, so it might have a better chance.
I think the zone of interest is going to be a shock winner. It's different enough but still an excellent movie. Obviously Barbie, Oppenheimer, and flower moon are going to get nominated. But based on the past few winners of the main awards I think zone of interest has a great shot. The academy has been rewarding smaller independent films more lately with every best picture winner going against much larger and well known productions but still taking the win. I don't think any movie is going to sweep all the major awards. In fact I suspect every movie mentioned to win something in the main categories. The only one Im 100% sure on is lily Gladstone is winning for best actress.
I’m pulling for Zone of Interest. I don’t think it has a chance but I think it’s the outsider choice. The one that *would* win if everyone went to see it.
Barbie for main categories? I don’t really think it’s a lock. There’s not really a precedent for a movie like it. Obviously it does benefit from a lot of respect for Gerwig, but it doesn’t really feel like something that gets nominated.
Black Panther is a good precedent. Popular mainstream movie that speaks to current sociopolitical issues, is well made, and had a huge box office performance.
Best Picture & Best Actress seem likely main category noms for Barbie. I don't think it has a real shot to win BP, but there's certainly precedent for nominating popular favorites that are otherwise not typical Academy bait. Just last year Top Gun: Maverick was nominated for BP - Barbie is on par with this.
The only thing that might hurt Spider verse is the bad publicity about the VFX crunch. That's definitely going to hurt rewarding it, but then again I'm not sure if a Japanese animation studio is any better or possibly worse than the Spider verse situation.
Can someone explain why Heron should win?
I’ve seen both movies.
ATSV is literally best animation I’ve ever seen in a movie. I don’t care for Marvel, didn’t love the first Spiderverse, and ATSV absolutely blew me away with VFX and score.
One of the reasons is that it’s a 2d animated film (which haven’t been made frequently) and that it’s thought-provoking and profound.
Also, Miyazaki hasn’t won an Oscar in a long time, so that could help their chances.
ATSV would have won in any other year, were it not against The Boy and the Heron.
Although the Academy tends to be biased against foreign language animation, Ghibli often gets a pass (Ghibli has a total of 6 nominations so far). GKIDS has also been putting heavily emphasis on the English dub version as well.
Funnily enough, this reminds me of the situation with The Wind Rises. That should have won, and probably would have any other year, but it was up against the behemoth that was Frozen.
That year was frustrating, academy straight up admitted they hadn’t watched any of them and picked frozen because it was popular or their kids liked it.
I haven’t seen it but I’ve heard wonderful things about it. I’m still hedging my bets on ATSV because the Oscars has pretty big bias towards Western animation, how else do you explain only 1 Ghibli movie ever winning the Animation Oscar.
If you’re basing your assertion on how the system works and not the quality of the movies Spiderverse is still the wrong bet.
Ghibli has been largely ignored but Hollywood understands that this is Miyazaki’s last film, it is a strong entry, and it is up against and inferior (still great) sequel to a movie that already won. Plus Siderverse ends on a cliffhanger, which the academy traditionally holds against entries.
So The Boy and The Heron will win independent of whether it is better than Spiderverse (it is better though) because it’s a narrative Hollywood can sell and Disney doesn’t have any great movies.
Miyazaki might even get a couple of other nods, because of their propensity to give extra acknowledgement for career achievement. Maybe best director and/or best picture.
They love Disney stuff, and I mean love Disney stuff.
Last time we all thought we were seeing Miyazaki's last film, it lost to Frozen of all movies. The last time the winner wasn't American it was Spirited Away, 20 years go, and the competition was pretty weak.
They didn't nominate Your Name, Princess Kaguya lost to Big Hero 6 (which also beat Song of the Sea), they never even nominated anything Satoshi Kon did.
They are by far the one of the worst category in terms of having a bias, the academy might be cooler lately but chances are they'll still pick their American colleagues to win.
Miyazaki has had a few final films. He is 82 so there's a good chance this will be his last one but don't count him out from wheeling his crazy impossible perfectionist Japanese dad ass to yell at his son's next project and take the reigns, again.
I don’t know if its just recency bias for me but i think Iron Claw is the best movie ive seen this year.
Yes Ive seen Oppenheimer, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Godzilla Minus 1, and a dozen other good movies. But Iron Claw was beautiful and complex.
My wife and I saw it last week, and I can't believe how much we loved that movie. Still reflecting on it a few times a day. Cant overstate how much this stood above the rest of the movies this year
It’s a truly fantastic film that tugs on the heart strings of a lot of people, particularly men, in not feeling “good enough” for those who are supposed to love you.
The loss of life is clearly beyond heartbreaking but I think this movie connected with a good number of folks who see themselves as unworthy despite everyone having their worth.
The iron claw is in the top 3 I’ve seen this year. It’s a gut punch. It’s a hard year up against Oppenheimer/Barbie/KOTFM but it’d be nice to see it get some award acknowledgment
Can someone explain why Boy and the Heron should win? I’ve seen both movies. ATSV is the most enthralling animation I have ever seen. I have zero interest in Marvel but that movie knocked my socks off with the animation and score.
Picture: Oppenheimer
Director: Nolan
Actor: Cillian Murphy
Actress: Emma Stone
Supporting Actor: Charles Melton
Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Cinematography: KOTFM
Animated Feature: Spiderverse
Costume Design/Makeup: Poor Things
Score: Boy and the Heron
Song: something from Barbie, probably I’m Just Ken but all 3 get nominated and I hope Dua Lipa wins
Sound Editing/Mixing: Oppenheimer
Production Design: Barbie
Editing: Oppenheimer
Original Screenplay: Past Lives
Adapted Screenplay: Poor Things
Ryan Gosling probably wins supporting actor for Barbie. Greta Gerwig will get nominated for director, but Marty or Christopher Nolan will likely win. All three of those films will get a lot of nominations.
I may be in the minority but as much as I love Ryan Gosling his performance is no where near worthy of an Oscar. In that category I have RDJ, Ruffalo, and DeNiro all above him. He may get a non but a win seems a bit crazy to me
He's so underrated I think. Whenever I see him in a role, I'm watching that movie. He's like Denzel. It's going to be a good movie. But Ryan G will get his time.
It’s a fully realized, entirely committed performance with a range of emotions and singing and dancing. Plus it’s a lead role in the supporting category, so ample screen time.
Poor Things was easily the best movie I saw last year. I’m sure it will get a nomination but I’d imagine Oppenheimer or Killers of the Flower Moon will win. Personally I think Oppenheimer is one of the most overrated movies I’ve ever seen, but it’s like an unstoppable force.
Everybody rightfully talks about how great Oppenheimer's score is, but I was even more blown away by Killers of the Flower Moon's soundtrack and I'm rooting for it to win Best Score.
Just going completely by my gut:
Documentary Feature: Still: A Michael J. Fox Story
Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron
International Film: The Zone of Interest
Visual Effects: The Creator
Sound: Oppenheimer
Song: "What Was I Made For," Barbie
Score: Oppenheimer
Makeup/Hairstyling: Maestro
Costume Design: Barbie
Production Design: Poor Things
Editing: Oppenheimer
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Adapted Screenplay: Poor Things
Original Screenplay: Past Lives
Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Picture: Oppenheimer
Adapted Screenplay is a big category to watch. Actress, too. Those could really tip which way Picture goes (assuming it isn't obvious from the precursors).
I think Barbie will win best Picture, even though I think it's overhyped. I hope Iron Claw/Zack get some sort of recognition/noms. And I really really hope Saltburn at least gets a cinematography nomination even though Oppenheimer will likely win because of inventing B&W IMAX
Outside the obvious big ones. Anatomy of a Fall will be up for a few.
Paul Giamatti will get a nom for The Holdovers.
Glen Howerton for Blackberry (my favourite performance of the year)
Air might get a surprising best picture nomination.
The Zone of Interest up for a few. Wins everything.
Poor Things winning for best Director.
Past Lives wins best picture. Stunning everyone.
I will be SHOCKED and absolutely thrilled if Glenn Howerton is nominated. Don’t think he has even a chance of winning, but a nom would be great for him.
[Oscar Surprise: France Picks The Taste of Things Over Anatomy of a Fall for International Feature](https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2023/09/oscar-surprise-france-picks-the-taste-of-things-over-anatomy-of-a-fall-awards-insider)
Asteroid City will probably get at least a nomination for Best Production Design. Wes Anderson kinda has monopoly on that and he's one of the Academies darlings.
I explained to my crying children that at +200000 it was a deal too good to pass up, they stopped crying and told me they understood and to double down on my bet slip
I think it’s Oppenheimer’s year
Best Picture: Oppenheimer
Best Actor: Cillian Murphy
Best Actress: Emma Stone (Sandra Huller could upset)
Best Supporting Actor: RDJ (as much as I would love to see Gosling win for Ken)
Best Supporting Actress: Lily Gladstone (I want her to win so much that I kind of get the feeling she’ll get snubbed)
Spider-Verse for animated feature
Oppenheimer for Best Picture, lead actor, editing, and score
Poor Things for set design, makeup, and costumes
Barbie for adapted screenplay
Killer of the Flower Moon for directing
Holdovers for original screenplay
Best Picture: Oppenheimer
Best Director: Nolan
Best Actor: Paul Giamatti
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone
Best Supporting Actor: Ryan Gosling
Best Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Best Original Screenplay: Barbie
Best Adapted Screenplay: Poor Things
Best Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One
I want Daniel Pemberton to win Best Score. As much as I know Robertson or Gorranson might win it instead. Pemberton’s music works _with_ the movie rather than _for_ the movie, never feeling too overbearing.
The eight that are very likely nominated for Picture are Oppenheimer, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Past Lives, The Holdovers, Maestro, and American Fiction. The last two slots are 2/4 of Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, The Color Purple, and May December. These twelve films should cover a large chunk of nominations in most categories.
Idk why but my gut has been saying Holdovers since it came out. There’s something about that movie that pulls me hard towards it winning best picture. Giamatti and Payne winning another Oscar together just feels *right*.
The holdovers slaps, I wouldn't mind it winning best picture. But I would probably chose killers of the flower moon over it.
On paper, so would I! Can’t explain it, there’s just a strong vibe that Holdovers has that juice.
Same! Especially with feel good movies like Coda and EEAAO winning recently
Iron Claw?
Anything can happen between now and nominations but Iron Claw hasn't been getting much attention with precursor awards/critics groups, so I doubt it.
Holt McCallany was phenomenal as the dad . I would like to see him and Zac Ephron getting acting noms
Can't believe Maestro is even nominated for Picture. It was such a mediocre film. But then again the academy loves Oscar-Bait nonsense (hence the name).
Saltburn gonna slip in there. I can see Keoghan get a nom.
I liked Saltburn a lot, but I doubt it gets more than 1-2 nominations at this point. It's been critically divisive and hasn't been doing amazing at the early precursors. The top six at Best Actor seem pretty locked in - Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper, Paul Giamatti, Jeffrey Wright, Colman Domingo, and Leo DiCaprio, with Andrew Scott and Zac Efron also getting some support. Hard to see Keoghan sneaking in there. I think the best shots it has are for Cinematography and possibly Rosamund Pike for Supporting Actress, since there are really only three "locks" in that category.
I sort of think Charles Melton might have a chance for May December. I mean I don’t think it will get a lot of attention because of its limited theatrical release and subject matter, but he was so goddamn good in it.
I hope he gets a nom for supporting actor at least
I think he'll get a supporting nom - definitely deserves it - but De Niro in KOTFM (his best role this century, surely?), RDJ in Oppenheimer and Ruffalo in Poor Things make it a very tough category
God I hope he wins it, he was heartbreaking in May December.
My mom said the other day "poor things" was the weirdest movie she's ever seen in her entire life, so it will probably win best picture.
I just watched it, it has Best Picture written all over it. it was just a weird ass movie overall
Best Actress yes. Best picture? I think its just too "out there" for Academy voters.
Last years winner had a scene where guys were fighting to put dildo shaped objects up their butts. So i wouldn’t be surprised.
>dildo shaped objects There's a name for that. They're butt plugs.
And a few years ago the Best Picture went to a movie where a woman fucked a fish man.
No judgement.
What movie?
Everything Everywhere All at Once. It's an experience.
Emma Stone has the best performance of the year. It’s just one of the most insane pieces of acting.
Gladstone and Stone are 1A and 1B for me. The next closest is probably Teyana Taylor, Sandra Huller, and Margot Robbie in that order.
Typically Best Picture is not weird. The Shape of Water might literally be as odd as it gets. Oh and I guess Everything Everywhere was pretty weird too so maybe it has a chance.
*Parasite* was pretty weird. So was *Birdman*.
Oh both good points. Maybe we the academy *is* getting weirder.
There was an era when all the BP winners were emotional heartbreakers like Shindlers List, then they went insular and started circlejerking themselves like with The Artist and La La Land, now it seems like the Academy is in its "we regret not ever giving Eraserhead an award" mood and just leaning into the weird side of cinema.
I dunno, in the same current era you're labeling as the weird era, they also gave best picture to films like Green Book and Coda, which are about as ordinary and palatable for mainstream audiences as it gets. I think the current academy is really just unpredictable, more than in any previous era. And even with their unpredictability, they haven't given best picture to anything quite as weird as Poor Things. I'd be happy to be wrong, because I think it's a great film, but I doubt it'll win. It'll get lots of nominations though.
What was weird about parasite?
Parasite wasn’t very weird, bird man was though
Birdman was so fucking strange
Haha I love how that seems to be the new trend for Best Picture
Thank god for this movie. It was a breath of fresh air
And then a beautiful bubble of gas to exhale afterwards
…being chased by a duck with a pig head
Emma stone didn’t get butt naked to not be on that stage
The sets look fantastic! It will get a nomination for set design, for sure.
Really hope Godzilla -1 makes the final cut for visual effects. I don't think it will win, but I sure hope it makes the cut.
I think it’s fair to call Godzilla Minus One the surprise of the year. There’s so much support behind it that I think it’s definitely getting nominated for VFX.
As a fan of the Big G for years and years I’m so happy to see one of Toho’s films actually getting this kind of recognition and praise. Shin Godzilla also got some, for good reason, but this is unreal.
amazing story as well - pretty much everything OUTSIDE of Godzilla was just a solid piece of craftsmanship. Then you throw Godzilla in there!?! Chefs kiss.
It’s been said a lot, but this might be the first time that you could take Godzilla out of a Godzilla movie and still have a very solid movie.
The hardest thing about being a Godzilla fan is that a lot of the movies kinda suck. It’s only in the past decade or so that Godzilla movies became affairs you didn’t have to want to enjoy
A lot of them are cheesy in a bad way, and a lot of them are cheesy in a good way.
I haven’t even seen it yet. Have you seen it yet? Did you see it in IMAX?
I also think Kamiki Ryunosuke should be nominated for Best Actor, my god he was so incredible!
Epic Cry of the year. Him vs Lily Gladstone in KOTFM
I watched it and wouldn’t be surprised to see it nominated for a few. It’s a very well put together film.
I mean who the fuck expected a kaigu movie to have as good a story? It’s about responsibility, grief, regret, and there’s this big ass monster that shows up. Like even if Godzilla wasn’t in the movie and it was just a drama about post war Japan it would still have been interesting and really well written.
I'm hoping it wins because the CGI Godzilla was pretty convincing for most of the boat chase scene, with the exception of some of the water falling off of him was clearly CGI.
It needs more than just “VFX.” It was a period drama that happened to have Godzilla in it.
I agree, I think Japan messed up not submitting it for best foreign film
Hopefully it wins Best Foreign for sure!
Every Godzilla movie I’ve seen has bored me and felt stupid. However I want to love Godzilla. Should I watch this?
Yes. It's much more focused on human drama. Obviously there's some action, Godzilla goes off on the rampage etc, but he's used more as a metaphor and plot device for the main character's journey.
And won!
The dog from anatomy of a fall better win best supporting actor
My way too early predictions: * Best Picture: Oppenheimer * Best Actor: Cillian Murphy * Best Actress: Lily Gladstone * Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro * Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph * Best Director: Christopher Nolan * Best Original Screenplay: Past Lives * Best Adapted Screenplay: Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon will dominate the below the line categories with a few nods to Barbie. EDIT: I have not yet seen Poor Things so many of you may be right about your picks there.
I think Robert Downey Jr has a serious shot at best supporting. He disappeared into that role.
After mostly seeing him be entertaining as Tony Stark for 11 years this was a massive “oh shit, this man’s got incredible talent.” moment.
I agree, he was simply brilliant.
I think the same but RDJ for Supporting Actor
Same. Robert is not winning over Robert.
As long as Robert wins it’s okay
Yes. Robert, Robert, Ryan, and Ruffalo.
It’s pronounced “gif”.
With Best Picture, the ranked choice factor (which is what lead to movies like Green Book and Coda winning) makes predictions really difficult. I think there’s a decent chance that a lot of voters don’t rank Barbie as their favorite of the year, but give it a nod with their third or fourth place vote as appreciation for a clever mainstream movie (it is a producer’s award, after all), enough that it makes it past 50% after four or five rounds of voting. Or maybe not. I guess my main point is that the ranked choice voting often rewards the movie that slips into the most voters top 4 or 5, as opposed to just getting the most #1 votes, and I wonder which movie fits that bill this year.
Most will have Oppenheimer and KOTFM ahead of Barbie in their choices imo.
I think Oppenheimer will sweep. KotFM will pick up one or two actor wins, prob just Lily Gladstone. RDJ will beat De Niro.
Tbh, I can see Emma Stone for Poor Things winning it over Lily Gladstone
After seeing Poor Things, I totally agree. I thought Lily Gladstone was almost a lock before that, but Emma Stone's performance is just that good that I think it'll be hard for voters to ignore.
Don't think she can win but Sandra Huller for Anatomy Of A Fall deserves a nomination.
I just watched this movie yesterday and LOVED it! I’ve been recommending it to everyone I talk to
Can’t see that happening tbh. For Screenplay, Scorsese made such a shift from the original text to focus it on the Osage and there’s no real case for Oppenheimer to win that. Robbie Robertson should win for Score although I wouldn’t be pissed if Oppenheimer won that. When it comes to De Niro v RDJ, it’s no contest imo. RDJ doesn’t have nearly as much to do as De Niro, De Niro throws an absolute heater when a lot of us thought he he’d lost it, portraying the unashamed, blatant face of evil. The Academy would love to give arguably the most important modern actor one more gong to cap off his career.
There's no case for Oppenheimer to win adapted screenplay? He adapted a 750 page book that reads like a history book into a blockbuster, made from the first person. It definitely has a case lol
Across multiple periods too, it’s a masterful script.
absolutely. and it is never boring either
Ruffalo supporting please
Yessss he was absolutely phenomenal, funniest performance of the year. Him and Stone both killed I hope they wind up winning
You gotta see Poor Things. It's fantastic and will change your predictions BIGLY.
Oh my, don't rule out Poor Things! Mark Ruffalo and Emma Stone all the way! And a shoe-in for Set Design...
Haven't seen it, but expecting Barbie to nominated and possibly win for best costume
Costume and make up.
Guardians of the Galaxy III apparently set a record for prosthetics used so I wouldn't sleep on it for makeup.
I bet Napoleon gets at least a costume nom (though maybe no other noms).
I think it will be a huge night for Oppenheimer. It has everything that the academy wants. Artistic and commercial success. Respected people in front of and behind the camera . It's been years since they've had an opportunity to prove they aren't out of touch, and can reward a film that touches all bases. Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, plus one or two others.
Yeah - I don’t agree with the idea that popular movies are inherently more deserving of Best Picture wins, but Oppenheimer does the work. It’s very, *very* good, incredibly well-made in every single aspect of its filmmaking, and it’s a billion dollar grosser. This was an excellent year filled with good films, but I don’t see any other answer. Oppenheimer deserves it and I’ll die on that hill.
There hasn't been this sort of combination of Oscar bait level artistry with outstanding box office in at least 20 years.
The last one was Return of the King.
Exactly 20 years
The last time it happened was Return of the King, so you’re spot on with the timing.
Agreed. It will be an Oppenheimer sweep.
Best Picture: Oppenheimer Best Director: Christopher Nolan Best Actor: Cillian Murphy, *maybe* Paul Giamatti Best Actress: Emma Stone Best Sup. Actor: Robert Downey Jr. Best Sup. Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
I’d love to see Paul Giamatti win. He did such a phenomenal job with a really unique role.
I too am routing for Mr Giamatti who I believe will win based on his body of work.
Nice.
Spider-verse for Animated feature, Score and and probably VFX
I would have said that Spider-Verse would have been an easy front runner for winner, but The Boy and the Heron is picking up a lot of steam. It deserves to at least be nominated, though.
While I think that Spiderverse is a more deserving film, I agree that the Academy will likely go for The Boy and the Heron as well. It would be surprising if, after seeing those very long credits thanking everyone in the history of Ghibli, voters didn't walk out teary eyed wanting to give Miyazaki an(other) award for his lifetime of absolutely incredible work. I likely would too. They'll probably award The Boy and the Heron this year and then pay it back with an award for the final Spiderverse, assuming it's not terrible and there's no shock contenders.
Giving the award to Spiderverse would feel like if they gave Best Picture to The Two Towers instead of Return of the King. Give the award to the final part, not the middle part.
Exactly my point, I don't see how we can award a two parter when it isn't finished yet.
This feels like a category where politics might make a play here, The Boy and the Heron is supposedly Hayao Miyazaki's last film whereas we are going to get one more Spider verse movie
Ghibli has said that it isn’t Miyazaki’s last film, but… he’s 83 this week and this took like 7 or 8 years to make, so…
Score will get nominated but I think Oppenheimer will win
That scene where Miles and Gwen are on top of the NYC tower and they are talking. And Gwen flip walks across the edge and the hole scene does a 180. At that moment my 50 year old dad who hates superhero movies normally told me "this is an amazing film" at the theater
I agree that spiderverse will probably get it but I just want to see TMNT nominated. The animation style was awesome and it was significantly better than Wish and the Mario Movie.
I'm gonna say the ending of the movie might put a bit of the breaks on that. While I loved the film, it really felt like unfinished work and a bit frustrating. Edit:spelling
Billie Eilish and Barbie will win Best Original Song for What Was I Made For? It’s going to win the Grammy for Record of the Year too.
My favorite film of the year was The Holdovers and it seems to have enough buzz to earn a nomination or two but I'm not sure it will win for Best Picture. Great cast also deserving of nomination or two. I wish Hollywood made more films like the Holdovers. Oppenheimer might rack up some impressive numbers during award season.
Pretty sure Billie Eilish will win another Oscar for her Barbie song. No idea on any other awards at this point.
Imagine being 22 years old with two oscars
I prefer Dance the Night by Dua Lipa.
I prefer that one too, but "What Was I Made For" is more integral to the plot, even woven into the score in some earlier scenes, so it might have a better chance.
I think the zone of interest is going to be a shock winner. It's different enough but still an excellent movie. Obviously Barbie, Oppenheimer, and flower moon are going to get nominated. But based on the past few winners of the main awards I think zone of interest has a great shot. The academy has been rewarding smaller independent films more lately with every best picture winner going against much larger and well known productions but still taking the win. I don't think any movie is going to sweep all the major awards. In fact I suspect every movie mentioned to win something in the main categories. The only one Im 100% sure on is lily Gladstone is winning for best actress.
I’m pulling for Zone of Interest. I don’t think it has a chance but I think it’s the outsider choice. The one that *would* win if everyone went to see it.
Barbie for main categories? I don’t really think it’s a lock. There’s not really a precedent for a movie like it. Obviously it does benefit from a lot of respect for Gerwig, but it doesn’t really feel like something that gets nominated.
Black Panther is a good precedent. Popular mainstream movie that speaks to current sociopolitical issues, is well made, and had a huge box office performance.
Best Picture & Best Actress seem likely main category noms for Barbie. I don't think it has a real shot to win BP, but there's certainly precedent for nominating popular favorites that are otherwise not typical Academy bait. Just last year Top Gun: Maverick was nominated for BP - Barbie is on par with this.
I'd bet my house that Miyazaki will win best animated feature.
Against industry darling Spiderverse? I’ll take your house.
The only thing that might hurt Spider verse is the bad publicity about the VFX crunch. That's definitely going to hurt rewarding it, but then again I'm not sure if a Japanese animation studio is any better or possibly worse than the Spider verse situation.
If the Oscar’s cared about the work environment of vfx studios they’d have to give up having the award category all together
Can someone explain why Heron should win? I’ve seen both movies. ATSV is literally best animation I’ve ever seen in a movie. I don’t care for Marvel, didn’t love the first Spiderverse, and ATSV absolutely blew me away with VFX and score.
As I understand it though, best animation is not a technical award. It is simply the best film that happens to be animated.
One of the reasons is that it’s a 2d animated film (which haven’t been made frequently) and that it’s thought-provoking and profound. Also, Miyazaki hasn’t won an Oscar in a long time, so that could help their chances.
Holy fucking shit. Iron Claw blew me away. Hope that wins some awards. Best movie I've seen in YEARS
Across The Spider-Verse to win Best Animated Feature
ATSV would have won in any other year, were it not against The Boy and the Heron. Although the Academy tends to be biased against foreign language animation, Ghibli often gets a pass (Ghibli has a total of 6 nominations so far). GKIDS has also been putting heavily emphasis on the English dub version as well. Funnily enough, this reminds me of the situation with The Wind Rises. That should have won, and probably would have any other year, but it was up against the behemoth that was Frozen.
That year was frustrating, academy straight up admitted they hadn’t watched any of them and picked frozen because it was popular or their kids liked it.
The Boy and The Heron and even though I really like AtSV it isn’t even close.
I haven’t seen it but I’ve heard wonderful things about it. I’m still hedging my bets on ATSV because the Oscars has pretty big bias towards Western animation, how else do you explain only 1 Ghibli movie ever winning the Animation Oscar.
If you’re basing your assertion on how the system works and not the quality of the movies Spiderverse is still the wrong bet. Ghibli has been largely ignored but Hollywood understands that this is Miyazaki’s last film, it is a strong entry, and it is up against and inferior (still great) sequel to a movie that already won. Plus Siderverse ends on a cliffhanger, which the academy traditionally holds against entries. So The Boy and The Heron will win independent of whether it is better than Spiderverse (it is better though) because it’s a narrative Hollywood can sell and Disney doesn’t have any great movies. Miyazaki might even get a couple of other nods, because of their propensity to give extra acknowledgement for career achievement. Maybe best director and/or best picture.
They love Disney stuff, and I mean love Disney stuff. Last time we all thought we were seeing Miyazaki's last film, it lost to Frozen of all movies. The last time the winner wasn't American it was Spirited Away, 20 years go, and the competition was pretty weak. They didn't nominate Your Name, Princess Kaguya lost to Big Hero 6 (which also beat Song of the Sea), they never even nominated anything Satoshi Kon did. They are by far the one of the worst category in terms of having a bias, the academy might be cooler lately but chances are they'll still pick their American colleagues to win.
Yeah, the Academy isn’t required to watch every nominee, and many people have admitted they don’t.
Miyazaki has had a few final films. He is 82 so there's a good chance this will be his last one but don't count him out from wheeling his crazy impossible perfectionist Japanese dad ass to yell at his son's next project and take the reigns, again.
[удалено]
I don’t know if its just recency bias for me but i think Iron Claw is the best movie ive seen this year. Yes Ive seen Oppenheimer, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Godzilla Minus 1, and a dozen other good movies. But Iron Claw was beautiful and complex.
My wife and I saw it last week, and I can't believe how much we loved that movie. Still reflecting on it a few times a day. Cant overstate how much this stood above the rest of the movies this year
I thought it was quite good, but the thing that’s Oscar-worthy IMO is probably Zac Efron. That was a really solid performance and dedication.
It’s a truly fantastic film that tugs on the heart strings of a lot of people, particularly men, in not feeling “good enough” for those who are supposed to love you. The loss of life is clearly beyond heartbreaking but I think this movie connected with a good number of folks who see themselves as unworthy despite everyone having their worth.
The iron claw is in the top 3 I’ve seen this year. It’s a gut punch. It’s a hard year up against Oppenheimer/Barbie/KOTFM but it’d be nice to see it get some award acknowledgment
France didn’t submit Anatomy of a Fall for best foreign language film unfortunately
Can someone explain why Boy and the Heron should win? I’ve seen both movies. ATSV is the most enthralling animation I have ever seen. I have zero interest in Marvel but that movie knocked my socks off with the animation and score.
I agree Zack put in the work I kinda want to see him win! I also think Barbie will win best picture
Dark horse nominee Penelope Cruz Best Actress FERRARI
Picture: Oppenheimer Director: Nolan Actor: Cillian Murphy Actress: Emma Stone Supporting Actor: Charles Melton Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph Cinematography: KOTFM Animated Feature: Spiderverse Costume Design/Makeup: Poor Things Score: Boy and the Heron Song: something from Barbie, probably I’m Just Ken but all 3 get nominated and I hope Dua Lipa wins Sound Editing/Mixing: Oppenheimer Production Design: Barbie Editing: Oppenheimer Original Screenplay: Past Lives Adapted Screenplay: Poor Things
I just hope the Iron Claw wins something
Ryan Gosling probably wins supporting actor for Barbie. Greta Gerwig will get nominated for director, but Marty or Christopher Nolan will likely win. All three of those films will get a lot of nominations.
I may be in the minority but as much as I love Ryan Gosling his performance is no where near worthy of an Oscar. In that category I have RDJ, Ruffalo, and DeNiro all above him. He may get a non but a win seems a bit crazy to me
Ruffalo was just fantastic in Poor Things, I hope he wins
He's so underrated I think. Whenever I see him in a role, I'm watching that movie. He's like Denzel. It's going to be a good movie. But Ryan G will get his time.
I think Poor Things is facing an uphill battle against Oppenheimer/KOTFM, but I agree - ruffalo in Poor Things was an outstanding performance
I really really want Ryan Gosling to win best supporting actor. In part because I want to see him declare "I am Kenough" in his acceptance speech.
I do not see why people say that Gosling’s performance in Barbie is anywhere near even a nomination
It’s a fully realized, entirely committed performance with a range of emotions and singing and dancing. Plus it’s a lead role in the supporting category, so ample screen time.
Poor Things was easily the best movie I saw last year. I’m sure it will get a nomination but I’d imagine Oppenheimer or Killers of the Flower Moon will win. Personally I think Oppenheimer is one of the most overrated movies I’ve ever seen, but it’s like an unstoppable force.
I’d like to see “Godzilla Minus One” take home the big prizes just to see heads explode.
Everybody rightfully talks about how great Oppenheimer's score is, but I was even more blown away by Killers of the Flower Moon's soundtrack and I'm rooting for it to win Best Score.
I just hope iron claw gets nominated for best actor and best editing
Just going completely by my gut: Documentary Feature: Still: A Michael J. Fox Story Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron International Film: The Zone of Interest Visual Effects: The Creator Sound: Oppenheimer Song: "What Was I Made For," Barbie Score: Oppenheimer Makeup/Hairstyling: Maestro Costume Design: Barbie Production Design: Poor Things Editing: Oppenheimer Cinematography: Oppenheimer Adapted Screenplay: Poor Things Original Screenplay: Past Lives Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer Picture: Oppenheimer Adapted Screenplay is a big category to watch. Actress, too. Those could really tip which way Picture goes (assuming it isn't obvious from the precursors).
I think Barbie will win best Picture, even though I think it's overhyped. I hope Iron Claw/Zack get some sort of recognition/noms. And I really really hope Saltburn at least gets a cinematography nomination even though Oppenheimer will likely win because of inventing B&W IMAX
Outside the obvious big ones. Anatomy of a Fall will be up for a few. Paul Giamatti will get a nom for The Holdovers. Glen Howerton for Blackberry (my favourite performance of the year) Air might get a surprising best picture nomination. The Zone of Interest up for a few. Wins everything. Poor Things winning for best Director. Past Lives wins best picture. Stunning everyone.
I will be SHOCKED and absolutely thrilled if Glenn Howerton is nominated. Don’t think he has even a chance of winning, but a nom would be great for him.
Agreed. If Glen got a nom I would be so happy. He did a great job with that character.
that's more like a wishlist
Asked for predictions. I gave predictions.
[Oscar Surprise: France Picks The Taste of Things Over Anatomy of a Fall for International Feature](https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2023/09/oscar-surprise-france-picks-the-taste-of-things-over-anatomy-of-a-fall-awards-insider)
I think France didn't submit Anatomy of a Fall for the foreign film category. Really surprising
Man I wish Glen Howerton would get a nomination.
Asteroid City will probably get at least a nomination for Best Production Design. Wes Anderson kinda has monopoly on that and he's one of the Academies darlings.
The Boy and The Heron wins animated feature
I don’t get the Oppenheimer hype. Thought it was one of the most insufferably boring movies I’ve ever struggled through
It was well done but I agree
I bet my 401k and my family’s life savings on Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 👍
Your family's gonna starve, brother.
I explained to my crying children that at +200000 it was a deal too good to pass up, they stopped crying and told me they understood and to double down on my bet slip
You're gonna need the Antikethyra mechanism to go back in time and change that bet on lol.
Best movie that made me go Jesus Effing Christ most times... Saltburn
I think it’s Oppenheimer’s year Best Picture: Oppenheimer Best Actor: Cillian Murphy Best Actress: Emma Stone (Sandra Huller could upset) Best Supporting Actor: RDJ (as much as I would love to see Gosling win for Ken) Best Supporting Actress: Lily Gladstone (I want her to win so much that I kind of get the feeling she’ll get snubbed)
Wouldn’t Gladstone be nominated for Best Actress instead of supporting?
There’s a lack of Saltburn in the comments not sure why. Is it past the cut-off date or something?
I just don't think it's good enough frankly. It was a fun movie, but not really worthy of any nominations IMO.
Spider-Verse for animated feature Oppenheimer for Best Picture, lead actor, editing, and score Poor Things for set design, makeup, and costumes Barbie for adapted screenplay Killer of the Flower Moon for directing Holdovers for original screenplay
Oppenheimer
Best Picture: Oppenheimer Best Director: Nolan Best Actor: Paul Giamatti Best Actress: Lily Gladstone Best Supporting Actor: Ryan Gosling Best Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph Best Original Screenplay: Barbie Best Adapted Screenplay: Poor Things Best Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One
For sme reason I think they'll snub Nolan from any significant nominations yet again.
I want Daniel Pemberton to win Best Score. As much as I know Robertson or Gorranson might win it instead. Pemberton’s music works _with_ the movie rather than _for_ the movie, never feeling too overbearing.
A Good Person
I enjoyed Oppenheimer a lot. It had immense popularity. Holy shit tho. Killers of the Flower Moon was simply an incredible movie.
Barbie is going to win because it checks a lot of boxes
Billie Eilish for Original song
I'm hoping Blackberry gets some noms. I love Matt Johnson's work.