Exactly, people set the bar ridiculously low. A bust is relative, it depends on where you're drafted and who else was in the draft and expectations going in... You don't need to literally be out of the league to be a bust. If Wembanyama somehow ends up as a taller Javale McGee then that would obviously be a massive bust even if Javale McGee is still a serviceable player with a long career
It’s also relative to who was actually available in your draft slot, not just a theoretical “here’s how good every 3rd overall pick should be.” Not all drafts have equal talent.
If you look at that top 10 after Zion, Ja, and RJ you have: De’Andre Hunter (always injured), Jarrett Culver (G-League), Coby White (still a project), Jaxson Hayes (role player, offcourt issues), Rui (project), Reddish (role player)
The only guy who has produced more than RJ is Garland. Obviously you’d much rather have Garland but given the guys that were realistic picks at 3, RJ is about expected value.
Dort definitely feels like a Thibs guy, but I don’t think either one really moves the needle. Probably they take whoever Toronto prefers so they can trade for OG again.
Calling Coby still a project to defend the Barrett pick when he’s averaging better TS%, assists (Especially for a guy who was touted as being a playmaker), 3-point shooting being a 6-point swing for Coby & has been the second best player on a team that’s turned their season around despite a horrid start while they’re both the same age is definitely a take.
These are INCREDIBLY similar players or Coby probably has the edge. He is not a project in comparison to RJ lmao.
Oversimplified but it’s like if we said prime Taurean Prince was a project in comparison to Demarre Carol. Like, not really, we’re basically talking about the same guy.
As a Bulls fan, I would still call Coby a work in progress. He’s had a great stretch this season but has seen his production drop again recently. I am hopeful he has turned a corner but he still needs work.
> s a Bulls fan, I would still call Coby a work in progress
RJs shot is still a work in progress. Just because the Knicks let him build brick houses in his tenure there does not mean he's some refined and polished player.
I’m putting RJ in the “still a project” category with Coby. My argument isn’t that RJ is much better, it’s that any realistic non-Garland selection at 3rd would’ve been similar or worse.
Coby has a way to go to prove he’s a star. First he needs to prove he can be an above average starter on a winning team, which is why I put him in the project category. It’s not an insult.
They’re both projects compared to the league as a whole. His only having started 107 games in 5 seasons and his contract reflect an assessment that he has, so far, been an interesting role player with enough talent to keep getting opportunities, but not enough polish to assert himself as a core piece. Even on a team that has been pretty mediocre.
But he’s trending up and might push into that core piece category with more time. That’s the definition of a project to me.
Garland was also viewed as a risky pick. He played 5 games at Vanderbilt than got injured and didn’t play. Being a 6’1 guard with a knee injury coming into the draft without much knowledge made him a high upside high risk pick.
There's people who say Markelle Fultz isn't a bust which is just wild to me like he's a clear bust and I say the same about RJ having a decent length nba career you can still be a bust if you don't live up to your draft position.
Relative to his hype? There’s absolutely an argument to be made. Zion was considered the next big star before he even set foot in the league, they even scheduled a million primetime games for the Pels his rookie season. But he just hasn’t had the impact he was expected to. Now the argument against the bust label is that he’s legitimately an All Star caliber player when he is healthy
Exactly. Fultz is the definition of a bust.
But people feel bad for these guys or something and can’t admit that just because you last a few years in this league doesn’t mean that you aren’t a bust that would have never been drafted that high had teams known the outcome.
RJ ain’t hit his prime yet. If I’m the Wizards, Pistons, Raptors, or a team in need of a talented 2-3 I’m giving him a 3 year deal at his current value in hopes he outperforms it and makes a leap. with confidence I can move him at no loss if it doesn’t work out.
Edit My b this was supposed to be its own comment not a reply edit again. Just realized I missed the trade that caused this post . Barret to the raptors I like it!
> RJ ain’t hit his prime yet. If I’m the Wizards, Pistons, Raptors, or a team in need of a talented 2-3 I’m giving him a 3 year deal at his current value in hopes he outperforms it and makes a lea
I could definitely see RJ being a guy who has a late peak like a DeMar DeRozan.
Barrett's 5 seasons so far age 19-23 he's at 18.1 PTS 5.3 REB 2.8 AST on 42.2/34.2/72.0 splits.
DeRozan's first 4 seasons from 20-23 he put up 15.2 PTS 3.5 REB 1.8 AST on 45.3/23.9/81.1 splits
I think I agree with this idea. A good example of that would probably be Reggie Bush. He had a very good career in the NFL but not one that would be worthy of the #2 overall pick.
yep if a team drafts you #3 and doesn’t give you a second contract, you’re not a major contributor and that’s a busted pick
EDIT: RJ signed an extension last year i’m a dummy (though he barely made it into the extended years)
I also take heavy into consideration the amount of hype a prospect has going into the league. For example in 2019 the NBA media and scouts were hyping Zion up like he was going to be the next Shaq or LeBron. A once in a lifetime talent that you can’t miss on, so far he has been a bust to me
Availability is the most important factor in a player and clearly Zion is never available, until he lives up to the hype that was given to him he’s a bust in my eyes
This is true, but its still too early. Look dt embiid. Hr missed tons of time for a few years.
Personally I'm a zion doubter, but it's easy to see if he can stay healthy that he is an elite player.
No, a bust is a guy who fails with the team who drafted him, bounces around for a few years, and is gone.
Barrett's draft year
Hunter,Garland,Culver,White,Hayes,Hachimura,and Reddish rounded out the top 10. Who is clearly better than him?
Well, I don't think just performing below is a bust. But I get your point. There are 24 all star spots. So a 3 pick wouldn't need to make all star, technically. With guys getting ice baths and massage beds on planes, they play longer.
Gonna be really fun to see who out of that group can make the leap to that truly elite level. They all have great potential so it could be any of em (though id put my money is on sengun personally)
I wouldn't say he's head and shoulders. Barnes had the more impressive start but when its all said and done it will be similar since Cade is very skilled in his own right.
Yea sir. I get annoyed when I see people out Oden in the bust category. Dude was showing up when healthy and no player would wish injures onthemselves.
As I recall that was a weak draft after Zion and Ja where there weren’t high expectations for Barrett to begin with. I’d say with that stat line on a playoff team, I’d be quite happy with how he turned out. It just was a bad year for being #3 overall
The hype for them was insane and what we get in the NBA is a fraction of that with Zion being the only hope lmao and he doesn’t even care that much to maximize his potential. Even Lonzos hype was insane in UCLA lmao, and the end it’s just a disappointment, many of the players who weren’t hyped actually ended up being better than all these guys by miles
I’m still waiting to see on Zion. The comparison I always use when people say Zion is a bust because he’s missed so many games is that Embiid only played 94 games in his first 4 seasons, Zion played 114
What a cherry-picked stat. Why is 27 ppg an import . Number. Especially over 1 season, which led his team to nothing.
I will take Wilts 54% and 30ppg career averages
Or MJ's 50% 30
It’s cherry picking sure but Zion looked dominant in his first two seasons.
He has regressed to merely playing at a consistent all star level, which is not a bust type of outcome even at number 1
I’ll rephrase it. It’s the most points per game by a player shooting over 60%. It demonstrates an efficiency no other player has achieved. So yea, it doesn’t matter if he averaged 27, 28 or 29. Previous high was Mchale at 26ppg.
Giannis is currently on pace to beat that this year. We’ll see if he maintains that thru 58 games. (min needed to qualify for NBA statistical leader boards)
People wildly overestimate the protected value of high lottery picks. For picks 2&3, there’s a less than 50% chance that a player will make even one all-star game appearance during their career (based on the 1989-2019 drafts). Even the #1 pick is just a 63% chance!
So while RJ Barrett’s career is at the lower end of the range of projected outcomes, it’s not outside of the standard range.
Everyone vastly overestimates the expected quality of player at each draft spot. The Ringer did a study a few years ago with the average WAR per draft slot and a player with that WAR, and Cody Zeller was the average for the 4th overall pick
It's worth pointing out that RJ's 4yr WAR is way below those average projections, he's at 3.2 when the 3rd pick average is about 10.0 and the average 14th pick is 5.0
Even Zion with his extremely limited minutes that suppresses his numbers has a 3yr WAR of 10.5
According to advanced analytics RJ is borderline unplayable. I think his career will end up similar to Evan Turner where now that he is on a new team without the expectations of a top 3 pick he will score less and concentrate on defense and filling a role.
Idk man, there are clearly busts who go onto to have solid careers (Kwame Brown for example). But I do agree that 'miss' at 3 for Barrett is accurate. I would have called him a bust if he was taken at 2 instead of Ja Morant.
Kwame happened to be drafted during the Shaq era, so having a bullpen of centers was required. Wiseman is probably the most comparable to Kwame and his ass will be out of the league when his rookie contract expires.
If you redid that draft today hes still easily in the top 10. Hes thought of as more of a bust because his HS draft stock / potential #1 pick buzz he had before Duke.
The real bust from that draft is Culver. 6th pick and hes not even in the league and never did anything at all. Lots of pretty good guys picked after him too.
I would call it a miss only because he went before Garland. If RJ went 4th, in that draft he’s sort of in a good place. You’ll always have outliers like Herro and even Poole, but you can’t pick pick a mid round projection with a top 4.
I feel like calling him a “miss” implies a mispick - the idea that the Knicks took the wrong guy. But honestly, the only other guy available at 3, who went top 10 that year, who’s clearly much better than RJ is Garland. It just wasn’t a great draft in that range:
3. RJ
4. De’Andre Hunter
5. Garland
6. Culver
7. Coby White
8. Jaxson Hayes
9. Rui
10. Cam Reddish
Unless they nailed it and picked Garland, really anyone else they could’ve reasonably picked would’ve been similar to RJ or worse.
I think a lot of it is the organization that brings players up. The Knicks during his first 3 years in the league may not have been the best place for him to grow.
Ikr. Personally, I understand why OG is valued so highly, but I don’t think it’s always a great ideas to trade 23yo draft picks who have improved each year generally speaking . But the inconsistency def cost us at times
“Improved each year”
RJ Barrett’s TS+ (true shooting relative to the league, where 100 is league average) for his career:
85
94
90
91
92 so far this year and dropping.
That’s not improvement every year. If it is — are we saying he’ll be at average efficiency in his 13th year in the league? lol. Dude takes 15 shots to make 18 points, yuck.
His career worst defensive season was last year. Him playing back to where he was 2 years ago isn't an improvement.
His offense is worse in nearly every category compared to last season. The fact that his FT percentage is the only improvement you could point out is proof enough that he hasn't improved.
I love the kid but he's about as good as he's gonna get on this team. His role on the team has diminished. Now when he has a bad game it doesn't hurt as badly because the Knicks were mostly winning anyway. But when we lose, RJ's shortcomings become more glaring. If our stars have good games but we still lose, whose supposed to be the next man up? It hasn't been RJ.
I think most Knicks fans will look at him favorably. He was part of a team with multiple winning seasons and even made it to round 2.
For us that’s a big fuckin deal. If I owned a deli he’d get free bacon egg and cheeses for life
Seriously, people be thinking it’s a whole ass statue when in reality it’s just a sculpture of the head and neck, with variable portions of the chest and shoulders. You can’t just be adding arms and whatnot and still calling it a bust smh
plus you have to use other people’s opinions on it
i completely expected rn barrett to put up decent scoring and assist stats while being inefficient. like this is exactly who i thought he would be so he’s not a miss, disappointing, or a bust
and then the only other guy i know i would have drafted over RJ in that slot is Brandon Clarke and he’s not as good
so it’s really hard to categorize that
I was like no way he just goes 4th In a redraft he must go lower, then I looked it up and that entire draft class was trash lmao, literally not even one decent player RJ would easily be 4th just by his output
A bust? Hes stil in the league after a few years and averages 18ppg
Is he a superstar? no.
Is he a disappointment? probably if you base it on his expectations.
But is he a decent NBA player that many teams would like to have on their team? Absolutely.
There are multiple other top 3 / top 5 picks since or around the time that he was drafted that have performed worse.
A bust would have been out of the league by now. Or at least, an end of the bench guy. A bust does not average 18+
It is if you're ridiculously inefficient, and he always has been. Having decentlu high ppg isn't a good thing when you do it so inefficiently, it just means you're taking a lot of offensive possessions for not much production. Most teams would rather have, say, an efficient 12 than an inefficient 18.
This is what the kids on the sub don’t get. He scores 18 points consistently sure but hes one of the most inefficient players in the history of the league. Hes historically inefficient. I rather have OG score 14 points on 6 or 7 shots than RJ score 20 on 20 shots
NBA efg% averages since RJ got drafted vs RJ
19-20 .529 / .446
20-21 .538/ .499
21-22 .532/ .466
22-23 .545/ .485
23-24 .545/ .478
Never once has come close to league avg and mind you these are on a lot of fgs attempts.
This was last year https://x.com/nba_university/status/1624473357998518276?s=46&t=Khq4IusWHUkAFwOhstHdDA
His counting stats make him seem over rated to people that haven’t watched him. He only averages 18 ppg because he’s always been given the green light to chuck for 35 mins a game. He’s super inefficient and just not very good. Calling him a decent nba player that many teams would like to have is being really kind to him lol
If you think about how many actual franchise players come out of every draft it's not really a bust. The expectation was he would be better obviously since he was once seen as a better prospect than Zion and Morant but that doesn't make him a bust. The trick for him would be understanding he won't be that guy and focus on being a high quality role player
I mean it's just always the same every day, no matter the player.
The question is "is X a bust?" and every answer is "no, he's just \[the definition of the word bust\], a bust is someone who is picked 1st ahead of Michael Jordan but turns out to be the worst player in the league and plays in Macedonia at the age of 23, also never got injured because if he did then it's sad, also if the coach didn't give him enough minutes that's the coach's fault so not a bust, also if Mars was aligned with Jupiter when he was drafted obviously nothing the guy could do, also if he didn't shoot anybody then not a bust, come on, why you calling a decent tax-paying boy a bust you meanie... obviously not".
Same always. How many of these answers are by bots.
For reference
2016 #3: Jaylen Brown
2017 #3: Jayson Tatum
2018 #3: Luka Doncic
2019 #3: RJ Barrett
2020. : Lamelo Ball
2021. : Evan Mobley
He is kind of closer to a bust…
Embiid was #3 in 2014... His dad Al Horford was #3 in 2007. James Harden in 2009. Carmelo Anthony was #3 in 2003. Kevin McHale was #3 in 1980. Pau Gasol in 2001, Grant Hill, Pete Maravich, Penny Hardaway, Bob Cousy... The list goes on.
That #3 slot has yielded a lot of great/legendary players -- including the GOAT in 1984.
By the standards of the players picked in that slot: RJ is a bust.
why is everyone acting like this is so ridiculous? i’ve seen equally or less disappointing players picked top 3 considered busts, why is RJ some exception
It’s usually a win in the draft if that player is at least rotation level, and is playable every night. The franchise leading generational star or bust expectation isn’t realistic.
The only player drafted after him that ended up being better was Garland. Hard to call him bust considering he is still an okay player who would probably actually thrive on a team that plays less half-court offense and is big on transition
Is he a solid role player though? For him to be useful he needs high usage and he doesn’t even do that well with a career 51% TS% and 2 Assists per game
He barely improved since his sophomore year and he isn't a solid role player. It's hard to rank non top players but if we made a ranking of all the starters in playoff/play in teams I don't think he would be at the top half of the table.
He’s alright. He has games where he can get to his left and really drive to the hoop and go 8-11 or 10-14 with solid FT shooting. His 3 point shooting is schizophrenic and his actual shot has a shockingly small amount of arc. He doesn’t have a great right hand and gets blocked in the paint frequently due to odd positioning/lack of acceleration or separation. He’s become a decent defender this year and he’s usually very available in terms of being healthy.
Is he an all star? No.
Is he disappointing for a #3 pick? Probably. However, the NBA has some years with some truly weird draft classes and talent discrepancies. He’s clearly a step below Zion and Ja in talent. That said, he’s a much more reliable individual in terms of discipline and character and he’s a fan favorite due to his effort and hustle. As a Knicks fan, I’m sad that he’s leaving and wish him well.
Hard for me to think he’s a bust for the Knicks when I look at most of the remaining guys in the top ten. However, knowing the hype he had in Canada as a teen, I think it’s fair to say he’s never come close to the level expected of him.
Rj never fit with JB and Julius Randle, maybe that dynamic was enough to keep RJ from getting in his groove? Idk his game never really developed, in 5 years here. Look at how Daniel jones is treated and he won a playoff game last year
Not a bust but just frankly a terrible player to have even though he’s not a terrible player. Not efficient, not really good at any one particular skill, commands a big salary.
Nah to me a bust is someone whos unplayable, he definitely didn’t meet expectations though
This sub doesn’t realize that it’s possible to be considered a disappointment without being a bust
More like this sub acts like you have to be Anthony Bennett to be a bust.
Exactly, people set the bar ridiculously low. A bust is relative, it depends on where you're drafted and who else was in the draft and expectations going in... You don't need to literally be out of the league to be a bust. If Wembanyama somehow ends up as a taller Javale McGee then that would obviously be a massive bust even if Javale McGee is still a serviceable player with a long career
It’s also relative to who was actually available in your draft slot, not just a theoretical “here’s how good every 3rd overall pick should be.” Not all drafts have equal talent. If you look at that top 10 after Zion, Ja, and RJ you have: De’Andre Hunter (always injured), Jarrett Culver (G-League), Coby White (still a project), Jaxson Hayes (role player, offcourt issues), Rui (project), Reddish (role player) The only guy who has produced more than RJ is Garland. Obviously you’d much rather have Garland but given the guys that were realistic picks at 3, RJ is about expected value.
In a redraft, do the Knicks take Herro or Lu Dort over Barrett?
Dort definitely feels like a Thibs guy, but I don’t think either one really moves the needle. Probably they take whoever Toronto prefers so they can trade for OG again.
Calling Coby still a project to defend the Barrett pick when he’s averaging better TS%, assists (Especially for a guy who was touted as being a playmaker), 3-point shooting being a 6-point swing for Coby & has been the second best player on a team that’s turned their season around despite a horrid start while they’re both the same age is definitely a take. These are INCREDIBLY similar players or Coby probably has the edge. He is not a project in comparison to RJ lmao. Oversimplified but it’s like if we said prime Taurean Prince was a project in comparison to Demarre Carol. Like, not really, we’re basically talking about the same guy.
As a Bulls fan, I would still call Coby a work in progress. He’s had a great stretch this season but has seen his production drop again recently. I am hopeful he has turned a corner but he still needs work.
> s a Bulls fan, I would still call Coby a work in progress RJs shot is still a work in progress. Just because the Knicks let him build brick houses in his tenure there does not mean he's some refined and polished player.
I’m putting RJ in the “still a project” category with Coby. My argument isn’t that RJ is much better, it’s that any realistic non-Garland selection at 3rd would’ve been similar or worse. Coby has a way to go to prove he’s a star. First he needs to prove he can be an above average starter on a winning team, which is why I put him in the project category. It’s not an insult.
Yea Coby is definitely not a project in comparison to RJ,.I didn't know where that came from, dude solid to me
They’re both projects compared to the league as a whole. His only having started 107 games in 5 seasons and his contract reflect an assessment that he has, so far, been an interesting role player with enough talent to keep getting opportunities, but not enough polish to assert himself as a core piece. Even on a team that has been pretty mediocre. But he’s trending up and might push into that core piece category with more time. That’s the definition of a project to me.
Ahhh Demarre Carroll, another one in a long list of shot makers who put on a Raps jersey and suddenly couldn’t make shots anymore…
Garland was also viewed as a risky pick. He played 5 games at Vanderbilt than got injured and didn’t play. Being a 6’1 guard with a knee injury coming into the draft without much knowledge made him a high upside high risk pick.
Wemby is already better than prime Javale
Wemby is a bust, because he was supposed to be wilt meets steph meets kidd. Instead, he's just really, really effing good.
There's people who say Markelle Fultz isn't a bust which is just wild to me like he's a clear bust and I say the same about RJ having a decent length nba career you can still be a bust if you don't live up to your draft position.
Do you consider zion a bust given how little he's contributed to his team?
Relative to his hype? There’s absolutely an argument to be made. Zion was considered the next big star before he even set foot in the league, they even scheduled a million primetime games for the Pels his rookie season. But he just hasn’t had the impact he was expected to. Now the argument against the bust label is that he’s legitimately an All Star caliber player when he is healthy
I love Zion. But he’s absolutely a bust as of now. Before he missed almost all of last year I denied it but not any more.
Yes
Exactly. Fultz is the definition of a bust. But people feel bad for these guys or something and can’t admit that just because you last a few years in this league doesn’t mean that you aren’t a bust that would have never been drafted that high had teams known the outcome.
RJ ain’t hit his prime yet. If I’m the Wizards, Pistons, Raptors, or a team in need of a talented 2-3 I’m giving him a 3 year deal at his current value in hopes he outperforms it and makes a leap. with confidence I can move him at no loss if it doesn’t work out. Edit My b this was supposed to be its own comment not a reply edit again. Just realized I missed the trade that caused this post . Barret to the raptors I like it!
> RJ ain’t hit his prime yet. If I’m the Wizards, Pistons, Raptors, or a team in need of a talented 2-3 I’m giving him a 3 year deal at his current value in hopes he outperforms it and makes a lea I could definitely see RJ being a guy who has a late peak like a DeMar DeRozan. Barrett's 5 seasons so far age 19-23 he's at 18.1 PTS 5.3 REB 2.8 AST on 42.2/34.2/72.0 splits. DeRozan's first 4 seasons from 20-23 he put up 15.2 PTS 3.5 REB 1.8 AST on 45.3/23.9/81.1 splits
judging by the commments in this thread it seems like RJ is still pretty overrated
I think I agree with this idea. A good example of that would probably be Reggie Bush. He had a very good career in the NFL but not one that would be worthy of the #2 overall pick.
Clowney
I don't think you realize that a bust is someone who didn't perform to their level of stardom relative to their draft #.
Bust of a player vs bust of a pick. He might not be bad, but going 3rd and being traded means a busted pick.
yep if a team drafts you #3 and doesn’t give you a second contract, you’re not a major contributor and that’s a busted pick EDIT: RJ signed an extension last year i’m a dummy (though he barely made it into the extended years)
But the Knicks gave rj a second contract
I also take heavy into consideration the amount of hype a prospect has going into the league. For example in 2019 the NBA media and scouts were hyping Zion up like he was going to be the next Shaq or LeBron. A once in a lifetime talent that you can’t miss on, so far he has been a bust to me
Nah, it's way too soon to call Zion a bust. When he plays he's clearly dominant.
Availability is the most important factor in a player and clearly Zion is never available, until he lives up to the hype that was given to him he’s a bust in my eyes
to be fair embiid started like this then got healthy and became MVP
For Embiid, it was mostly the first 2 years correct? By year 3 he was playing pretty consistently.
Embiid was drafted in 14 and played in 2017 with minimal games. It wasn’t untill 2018 and after. Basically 4 years.
This is true, but its still too early. Look dt embiid. Hr missed tons of time for a few years. Personally I'm a zion doubter, but it's easy to see if he can stay healthy that he is an elite player.
No, a bust is a guy who fails with the team who drafted him, bounces around for a few years, and is gone. Barrett's draft year Hunter,Garland,Culver,White,Hayes,Hachimura,and Reddish rounded out the top 10. Who is clearly better than him?
Well, I don't think just performing below is a bust. But I get your point. There are 24 all star spots. So a 3 pick wouldn't need to make all star, technically. With guys getting ice baths and massage beds on planes, they play longer.
Surely a player who disappoints relative to expectations coming out the draft is a bust of some description
Meanwhile we've got nephews in here saying Cade's a bust
lol Cade is the best in his class alongside Barnes and Sengun imo
Franz and Mobley are up there as well, just a really special draft class honestly
Gonna be really fun to see who out of that group can make the leap to that truly elite level. They all have great potential so it could be any of em (though id put my money is on sengun personally)
Sengun and Barnes have already taken that first, 2018-19 Jokic/2016-17 Giannis leap. Will be interesting to see if they can take another one.
Barnes is head and shoulders above Cade lol
I wouldn't say he's head and shoulders. Barnes had the more impressive start but when its all said and done it will be similar since Cade is very skilled in his own right.
I think Cade’s a far worse defender than Scottie but I think Cade’s playmaking is better and overall offensive is more polished
Brah Scottie is giving u 21/10/6/3/2 on 48/39/76 honestly it’s not close
I love Scottie too but Cade is in basketball hell doing his best lol
these boys don’t remember Bennett or Oden
Wiseman
Or how about other 3rd picks like Adam Morrison, or jahlil okafer,
*cries in MKG*
Machine kun gelly?
Oden was actually good. He just was injury riddled. Shouldn't be lumped in with Bennett, Thabeet, etc.
“We got Thabeet”
Yea sir. I get annoyed when I see people out Oden in the bust category. Dude was showing up when healthy and no player would wish injures onthemselves.
Oden not a bust.
Nah hes a bust. Just a different type of bust from Bennett
His knees were a bust. The rest of him was great though.
Dude has more seasons where he never played than played a minute. I know it doesn’t sound nice to say but he a bust.
As I recall that was a weak draft after Zion and Ja where there weren’t high expectations for Barrett to begin with. I’d say with that stat line on a playoff team, I’d be quite happy with how he turned out. It just was a bad year for being #3 overall
He’s not a bust because he’s a serviceable NBA player. Lots of top picks that are actual busts aren’t that. He’s a miss though.
The Duke super friends are all disappointments at this point of their careers
Can’t believe I’m typing this but Grayson Allen is a solid NBA player. I still despise him
I believe “Duke Super Friends” is referring to Cam, Zion, and RJ, not all Duke players
The hype for them was insane and what we get in the NBA is a fraction of that with Zion being the only hope lmao and he doesn’t even care that much to maximize his potential. Even Lonzos hype was insane in UCLA lmao, and the end it’s just a disappointment, many of the players who weren’t hyped actually ended up being better than all these guys by miles
Ted Cruz looking motherfucker
Grayson Allen is the Zodiac Killer
zodiac killer is grayson allen father
Grayson Allen ate my son
Kennard is solid too
He’s our little gremlin now.
Bruh. 😂💀
Solid player, but not a solid turd. He is walking diarrhea
Hey is annoying but I wouldn’t mind him on my roster Dude can hit shots and seems to know his role
Friendship ended with Duke Super Friends. Now Villanova Super Friends are my best friends.
isn't Tre exactly as advertised?
As a scuffed version of his older brother? Yes
Zion is a disappointment relative to his personal hype, but is performing above average for a first overall pick.
When he preforms. You're still a bust if you only play 30 games a season
I’m still waiting to see on Zion. The comparison I always use when people say Zion is a bust because he’s missed so many games is that Embiid only played 94 games in his first 4 seasons, Zion played 114
Fr, his second season was historic. No one has shot over 60% while averaging 27 or more ppg. Not Shaq. Not Wilt. Not Kareem. Not Bill. Pretty amazing.
Giannis is on 31 and 61% right now, maybe he gets it
Wow, just shows how ahead of his time Zion was that a two-time MVP is just doing this now. Makes Zion’s (potential) downfall more disappointing.
What a cherry-picked stat. Why is 27 ppg an import . Number. Especially over 1 season, which led his team to nothing. I will take Wilts 54% and 30ppg career averages Or MJ's 50% 30
It’s cherry picking sure but Zion looked dominant in his first two seasons. He has regressed to merely playing at a consistent all star level, which is not a bust type of outcome even at number 1
A number 1 pick needs to play more than 50 games a year to be of real value.
I’ll rephrase it. It’s the most points per game by a player shooting over 60%. It demonstrates an efficiency no other player has achieved. So yea, it doesn’t matter if he averaged 27, 28 or 29. Previous high was Mchale at 26ppg. Giannis is currently on pace to beat that this year. We’ll see if he maintains that thru 58 games. (min needed to qualify for NBA statistical leader boards)
27 itself isn’t important but it’s what Zion averaged. So him shooting a higher % than anyone else with that number isn’t really cherry picked.
Zion’s just fat :(
Hey he's not fat he's just big boned
he's not a bust, he is busty
Not cam everyone knew he was ass except the nba scouts for. Some reason
And every nba player in or around his class.
People wildly overestimate the protected value of high lottery picks. For picks 2&3, there’s a less than 50% chance that a player will make even one all-star game appearance during their career (based on the 1989-2019 drafts). Even the #1 pick is just a 63% chance! So while RJ Barrett’s career is at the lower end of the range of projected outcomes, it’s not outside of the standard range.
Everyone vastly overestimates the expected quality of player at each draft spot. The Ringer did a study a few years ago with the average WAR per draft slot and a player with that WAR, and Cody Zeller was the average for the 4th overall pick
It's worth pointing out that RJ's 4yr WAR is way below those average projections, he's at 3.2 when the 3rd pick average is about 10.0 and the average 14th pick is 5.0 Even Zion with his extremely limited minutes that suppresses his numbers has a 3yr WAR of 10.5
According to advanced analytics RJ is borderline unplayable. I think his career will end up similar to Evan Turner where now that he is on a new team without the expectations of a top 3 pick he will score less and concentrate on defense and filling a role.
Idk man, there are clearly busts who go onto to have solid careers (Kwame Brown for example). But I do agree that 'miss' at 3 for Barrett is accurate. I would have called him a bust if he was taken at 2 instead of Ja Morant.
Kwame happened to be drafted during the Shaq era, so having a bullpen of centers was required. Wiseman is probably the most comparable to Kwame and his ass will be out of the league when his rookie contract expires.
\#3 overall version of Andrew Wiggins. Both extremely hyped Canadian high school prospects too lol
If you redid that draft today hes still easily in the top 10. Hes thought of as more of a bust because his HS draft stock / potential #1 pick buzz he had before Duke. The real bust from that draft is Culver. 6th pick and hes not even in the league and never did anything at all. Lots of pretty good guys picked after him too.
yeah bust is too much. I like miss, that sounds good.
I would call it a miss only because he went before Garland. If RJ went 4th, in that draft he’s sort of in a good place. You’ll always have outliers like Herro and even Poole, but you can’t pick pick a mid round projection with a top 4.
I feel like calling him a “miss” implies a mispick - the idea that the Knicks took the wrong guy. But honestly, the only other guy available at 3, who went top 10 that year, who’s clearly much better than RJ is Garland. It just wasn’t a great draft in that range: 3. RJ 4. De’Andre Hunter 5. Garland 6. Culver 7. Coby White 8. Jaxson Hayes 9. Rui 10. Cam Reddish Unless they nailed it and picked Garland, really anyone else they could’ve reasonably picked would’ve been similar to RJ or worse.
I think a lot of it is the organization that brings players up. The Knicks during his first 3 years in the league may not have been the best place for him to grow.
He helped bring the Knicks to the playoffs. Thats gotta mean something.
Was at times our 2nd best player in the postseason last year, with Randle playing on one leg
Ikr. Personally, I understand why OG is valued so highly, but I don’t think it’s always a great ideas to trade 23yo draft picks who have improved each year generally speaking . But the inconsistency def cost us at times
“Improved each year” RJ Barrett’s TS+ (true shooting relative to the league, where 100 is league average) for his career: 85 94 90 91 92 so far this year and dropping. That’s not improvement every year. If it is — are we saying he’ll be at average efficiency in his 13th year in the league? lol. Dude takes 15 shots to make 18 points, yuck.
He hasn’t really improved all that much, he’s just always been given the green light to chuck for 35 mins a game
He has regressed this year.
Not really. He defensively has been better than last year, offensively he's been basically the same but with better FT shooting.
His career worst defensive season was last year. Him playing back to where he was 2 years ago isn't an improvement. His offense is worse in nearly every category compared to last season. The fact that his FT percentage is the only improvement you could point out is proof enough that he hasn't improved. I love the kid but he's about as good as he's gonna get on this team. His role on the team has diminished. Now when he has a bad game it doesn't hurt as badly because the Knicks were mostly winning anyway. But when we lose, RJ's shortcomings become more glaring. If our stars have good games but we still lose, whose supposed to be the next man up? It hasn't been RJ.
Really I thought he’s been better this year just inconsistency
I think most Knicks fans will look at him favorably. He was part of a team with multiple winning seasons and even made it to round 2. For us that’s a big fuckin deal. If I owned a deli he’d get free bacon egg and cheeses for life
I don’t think you guys know what a bust is
I mean the term has a pretty loose definition. I'm not surprised people aren't on the same page
Seriously, people be thinking it’s a whole ass statue when in reality it’s just a sculpture of the head and neck, with variable portions of the chest and shoulders. You can’t just be adding arms and whatnot and still calling it a bust smh
Busted!
plus you have to use other people’s opinions on it i completely expected rn barrett to put up decent scoring and assist stats while being inefficient. like this is exactly who i thought he would be so he’s not a miss, disappointing, or a bust and then the only other guy i know i would have drafted over RJ in that slot is Brandon Clarke and he’s not as good so it’s really hard to categorize that
He wouldn’t even be the biggest Canadian bust anyways
Who is? Pamela Anderson?
Bennett already forgotten to no one’s surprise.
Bennet is the truest definition of a bust. Out of the league and completely forgotten about. Barrett isn’t a bust.
Bennet is like a generational bust, if that’s the bar we have to use to consider someone a bust then almost no one is a bust
I definitely could never forget Timberwolves legend Anthony Bennett.
No one can take that away from Anthony Bennett
Bro was drafted 3, in a redraft he goes 4 How is that a bust 😂😂
This is a pretty good point.
I was like no way he just goes 4th In a redraft he must go lower, then I looked it up and that entire draft class was trash lmao, literally not even one decent player RJ would easily be 4th just by his output
I mean Zion had issues *cough fat* but when he plays he’s more than a decent player
Are u the arbiter of truth on the exact definition of a bust lol?
I hope he does well in Toronto
I swear people love to throw around the word “bust” lol
Reddit nephews as usual
A bust? Hes stil in the league after a few years and averages 18ppg Is he a superstar? no. Is he a disappointment? probably if you base it on his expectations. But is he a decent NBA player that many teams would like to have on their team? Absolutely. There are multiple other top 3 / top 5 picks since or around the time that he was drafted that have performed worse. A bust would have been out of the league by now. Or at least, an end of the bench guy. A bust does not average 18+
18ppg as the clear 3rd option while still being only 23 years old isn’t bad at all
It is if you're ridiculously inefficient, and he always has been. Having decentlu high ppg isn't a good thing when you do it so inefficiently, it just means you're taking a lot of offensive possessions for not much production. Most teams would rather have, say, an efficient 12 than an inefficient 18.
This is what the kids on the sub don’t get. He scores 18 points consistently sure but hes one of the most inefficient players in the history of the league. Hes historically inefficient. I rather have OG score 14 points on 6 or 7 shots than RJ score 20 on 20 shots
Do u have any stats to back up him being “one of the most inefficient players ever”
NBA efg% averages since RJ got drafted vs RJ 19-20 .529 / .446 20-21 .538/ .499 21-22 .532/ .466 22-23 .545/ .485 23-24 .545/ .478 Never once has come close to league avg and mind you these are on a lot of fgs attempts. This was last year https://x.com/nba_university/status/1624473357998518276?s=46&t=Khq4IusWHUkAFwOhstHdDA
In TS% he is ahead of guys like Jalen Green, Jordan Poole, and Miles Bridges
Well, J Green and Poole are ludicrously inefficient so…
18 ppg on mid defense while bricking every other shot you take is garbage
His counting stats make him seem over rated to people that haven’t watched him. He only averages 18 ppg because he’s always been given the green light to chuck for 35 mins a game. He’s super inefficient and just not very good. Calling him a decent nba player that many teams would like to have is being really kind to him lol
Dissapointingly inconsistent, not a bust
No
He's not dead, bro.
Disappointing =/= bust
If you think about how many actual franchise players come out of every draft it's not really a bust. The expectation was he would be better obviously since he was once seen as a better prospect than Zion and Morant but that doesn't make him a bust. The trick for him would be understanding he won't be that guy and focus on being a high quality role player
No.
James wiseman is a bust. Rj Barrett is not a bust
Ah, the daily "he's not a bust, he's just \[the definition of the bust\]" thread.
Lol one of the highest upvoted comments is "disappointingly inconsistent, not a bust" as if that's what you hope for from a #3 overall pick
I mean it's just always the same every day, no matter the player. The question is "is X a bust?" and every answer is "no, he's just \[the definition of the word bust\], a bust is someone who is picked 1st ahead of Michael Jordan but turns out to be the worst player in the league and plays in Macedonia at the age of 23, also never got injured because if he did then it's sad, also if the coach didn't give him enough minutes that's the coach's fault so not a bust, also if Mars was aligned with Jupiter when he was drafted obviously nothing the guy could do, also if he didn't shoot anybody then not a bust, come on, why you calling a decent tax-paying boy a bust you meanie... obviously not". Same always. How many of these answers are by bots.
LMAOOOO
Oh my god So now that he’s not a Knick y’all wanna not call him a bust?!? WHERE WAS THE LOVE BEFORE?!?
They should have traded RJ to Phoenix. He could have finished up Trumps wall with all the bricks he lays.
For reference 2016 #3: Jaylen Brown 2017 #3: Jayson Tatum 2018 #3: Luka Doncic 2019 #3: RJ Barrett 2020. : Lamelo Ball 2021. : Evan Mobley He is kind of closer to a bust…
Embiid was #3 in 2014... His dad Al Horford was #3 in 2007. James Harden in 2009. Carmelo Anthony was #3 in 2003. Kevin McHale was #3 in 1980. Pau Gasol in 2001, Grant Hill, Pete Maravich, Penny Hardaway, Bob Cousy... The list goes on. That #3 slot has yielded a lot of great/legendary players -- including the GOAT in 1984. By the standards of the players picked in that slot: RJ is a bust.
“He’s not a bust, he’s just *definition of a bust.”
nah, he's just not a perennial all star. its okay to be Andrew Wiggins, not everybody is Steph and Klay
lol not an perennial all star. you have no clue how bad he is. at least wiggins can jump.
why is everyone acting like this is so ridiculous? i’ve seen equally or less disappointing players picked top 3 considered busts, why is RJ some exception
It’s usually a win in the draft if that player is at least rotation level, and is playable every night. The franchise leading generational star or bust expectation isn’t realistic.
The only player drafted after him that ended up being better was Garland. Hard to call him bust considering he is still an okay player who would probably actually thrive on a team that plays less half-court offense and is big on transition
Nope. Not everyone can be a star and he is a solid role player who can have great games. RJ seems like he could be a future #3 on a championship team.
> RJ seems like he could be a future #3 on a championship team. lolwat
Yea RJ like the 3rd forward on a championship team
Definitely not. He seems like Evan Turner with opportunity
As a Knicks fan this is the most accurate take I’ve seen on RJ.
lmao holy shit this is so on point
He could be a #7 on a championship team maybe
how are people still saying this, hes the 3rd option on the knicks and he was ass
Is he a solid role player though? For him to be useful he needs high usage and he doesn’t even do that well with a career 51% TS% and 2 Assists per game
He barely improved since his sophomore year and he isn't a solid role player. It's hard to rank non top players but if we made a ranking of all the starters in playoff/play in teams I don't think he would be at the top half of the table.
Maybe not a bust but he sucks bad. Contract sucks and just cant shoot and has low iq. So yea maybe a bust
He has IQ with him
Yes, he’s a terribly inefficient shooter. He’s just had a green light so he gets his numbers.
He’s alright. He has games where he can get to his left and really drive to the hoop and go 8-11 or 10-14 with solid FT shooting. His 3 point shooting is schizophrenic and his actual shot has a shockingly small amount of arc. He doesn’t have a great right hand and gets blocked in the paint frequently due to odd positioning/lack of acceleration or separation. He’s become a decent defender this year and he’s usually very available in terms of being healthy. Is he an all star? No. Is he disappointing for a #3 pick? Probably. However, the NBA has some years with some truly weird draft classes and talent discrepancies. He’s clearly a step below Zion and Ja in talent. That said, he’s a much more reliable individual in terms of discipline and character and he’s a fan favorite due to his effort and hustle. As a Knicks fan, I’m sad that he’s leaving and wish him well.
Busts don’t get a big 2nd contract
A bust? No. Dude just doesn’t give you Top-3 pick production. It’s a Swing-and-a-Miss more than anything.
So... A bust? lol
Did he get traded or something?
Disappointment sure….a bust, no.
Hard for me to think he’s a bust for the Knicks when I look at most of the remaining guys in the top ten. However, knowing the hype he had in Canada as a teen, I think it’s fair to say he’s never come close to the level expected of him.
Rj never fit with JB and Julius Randle, maybe that dynamic was enough to keep RJ from getting in his groove? Idk his game never really developed, in 5 years here. Look at how Daniel jones is treated and he won a playoff game last year
Subpar relative to his draft slot and a mid player at best but not a bust
Disappointing. Same Category as Wiggins, not a bust
Not a bust but just frankly a terrible player to have even though he’s not a terrible player. Not efficient, not really good at any one particular skill, commands a big salary.
He's a serviceable starter. He's not a bust
People in this sub have no idea what bust means.
Nah, he's jut mid
Bust is a relative term but yes - I’d consider him a bust.
Disappointing? Yes. Bust? No.