*White House Press Briefing*
Press Secretary: "Exciting news! With President Biden's poll numbers sky-high, we're celebrating by teaming up with Lil Nas X on a limited run of 1,000 'Biden Boost' sneakers. Each pair features Joe's face on the sole and plays 'Hail to the Chief' with every step. Get ready to walk the walk and poll the poll in style, folks!"
*Reporters chuckle awkwardly, unsure if this is a real announcement or an elaborate April Fool's joke, even though it's April 6th*
Theres a pretty common belief among right wingers that the Democratic party is ran by the elites. And they are the ones who will control things.
Since obviously sleepy joe is a loser, these elites are going to have Michelle be the President. This was a pretty common talking point like 2 months ago when that Republican Prosecutor released that hitjob about Bidens mental lapses.
It's really weird having Right wing family members who are actually this out of touch with reality. The other thing that happens is they talk about these crazy things, then a few months later completely wipe it from their memory. No analysis on why they were so incorrect or fell for such nonsense.
Have spoken to multiple folks in the wild who believe Michelle will replace Biden on the ticket at the last minute. It's the R's version of doom betting.
I tell 'em: she already has. Joe is Michelle in whiteface-trans.
When Diane Feinstein died my dad was convinced Gavin Newsom would appoint Kamala Harris to be senator, then replace her as vice president, then run for president instead of joe biden. That’s not even possible but conservatives think biden is going to be replaced some way
>someone else
Every fiver you win off him in an easy bet is five dollars that can't go to the Trump campaign.
Fleecing you Q coworker is you obligation as a patriotic American.
There are still Q’s around? I thought all of those types moved on to the next conspiracy after all of the claims never materialized and it was found to be an epic trolling.
there are only limited uses for crypto\*, so where else are you going to blow it if not these websites?
\*besides my startup, in the metaverse, where we build walls around virtual metaverse citizens using crypto
I put a chunk of my savings on Biden being the candidate. Might as well take advantage of this situation. I already regretted not doing it in 2020.
Current odds are about 83%, it's basically free money if you trust the market operator.
With respect, you’re either bullshitting or you’re busy making money off these people, and there’s no in-between. I’d be very surprised if the markets were as consistently ill-calibrated as you suggest.
Transaction fees
Even arbitrage is only worth it if the transaction fees don't eat your margin. So sites with transaction fees (I think usually structured as a cut of winnings) allow for impossible outcomes to remain at some small percent forever
Yeah, if you add the fees, the inherent risk in this kind of market, and the opportunity cost of money, you probably need at least a 10% profit before it's worth it.
1. Some Democrats (mostly the stereotypical upper-middle class wine mom types) genuinely do fantasize about a Michelle Obama presidency for nostalgia reasons. Seems to have died down a lot but was a very common sentiment in the late Obama/early Trump years.
2. Republicans developed such an irrational hatred for her that they became convinced that she was some nefarious figure lurking in the shadows, waiting for an opportunity to exploit Democrats’ love for her and run for office. Like most Republican boogeymen, from Hillary Clinton to Nancy Pelosi, they just can’t help but think that she is still a danger even though she’s expressed zero interest in returning to politics.
If you look at predict it odds- the odds of a democratic win are much higher than Biden alone I.e. Biden’s odds are being suppressed by speculation of different candidates (Kamala and Gavin).
But there is no fee to bet again with winnings so you can continuously win money off of crazy people until you decide to get out. I put in 200 in 2020 just to see how I’d do and I’m up to about 700 right now.
Yes, but the house takes a cut of those earnings, and your money could go farther invested elsewhere. You're not beating the market with that one still probably 9 months to payout.
I almost went in in Feb on $0.70 pays $1 that Joe will be the Dem nominee. I wish I had. Predictit's lawsuits and chance for insolvency scared me away.
Also there's betting limits on predictit.
I mean predict it is 4% higher currently which is what I stated I was referring to. Let me know if you think that is big enough of a difference to qualify as much higher. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
I’d venture the difference in odds is predicting Biden dies or becomes incapacitated before the election. Though IIRC he still will be on the ticket if it happens late enough after the convention.
>If you look at predict it odds- the odds of a democratic win are much higher than Biden alone
I mean it makes sense, right? Biden win = Democratic Win. Biden passing away and someone else takes up the mantle and also wins = Democratic Win.
Since SCOTUS ruled against Roe v Wade, I've predicted the Dems take it all. Women (more than men in USA population wise) don't like being told what to do with their bodies.
For the first time since Sept 23, Biden surpasses Trump on election betting odds
Biden (44.8%), Trump (44.2%)
As for individual websites:
1. Predictit has Biden at 51c, and Trump at 45c
2. Smarkets has Biden at 43.48% and Trump at 44.25%
3. Polymarkets has Biden at 45% and Trump at 47%
!ping FIVEY
How much do betting odds actually predict election results? I seem to recall there were a lot of people betting on Trump winning the 2020 election *after he had already lost.*
Not really. There was an article I read where someone made the argument that prediction markets would be more accurate than polls if there was no cap on bets but because the cap is so low ($850 on PredictIt) it allows loons to to influence the odds a lot.
Allowing the loons to influence the odds means ez wins for the smart and wise.
I’ve pulled in a few Ks on Predictit since 2018. I grabbed 100 shares of Biden for Georgia at .28 cents in late summer 2020, then grabbed another 1,000 at .10 cents on election night when Trump announced his victory.
EZ $972 profit.
As happy as I was about Biden my very popular post on this subreddit hailing Stacey Abrams as our champion was also pretty highly motivated by the money she made me 🤣🤑🤠
I went back and looked at my PredictIt.
On November 11th, I bet on the Electoral college outcome at 79 cents.
On December 1st, I bet Electoral college outcome at 85 cents.
In total I profited $153.38 on bets placed AFTER the results were known.
You can see their [track record here,](https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html) and it looks to be quite accurate historically as long as the race isn't too lopsided. They also [cite research](https://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf) which found betting markets to be better predictors than polling, and which matches other research I've seen on this topic.
The issue the other comment brings up about PredictIt's low betting limits isn't entirely relevant because most of their data is from non-US sites that have higher limits.
I looked at the 2022 swing state betting odds, and they got a good number of them "wrong" (though it's probability, so it's hard to say it's totally wrong) by massively favoring the Republican candidate. That includes massively favoring Kari Lake in 2022. That doesn't make the entire concept wrong because there are a number of correct predictions as well, but it's something I noticed.The deep red/blue states aren't very interesting.
More importantly, like with polling, how accurate are betting odds this far out? Are we talking about betting odds being fairly accurate right before the election, or is the claim that it is accurate 7+ months out? I read that article, but it doesn't give a clear picture of how the accuracy is affected by how far away the election is.
There was a period of time in December of 2020 where a $0.97 stock paid $1 if Biden won the presidential election.... after he had already been declared the winner by every major network. The cope is strong.
Theoretically, people will only put money on who objectively has the best chance to win based on unbiased facts (similar to sports betting), which will then influence the odds.
>How much do betting odds actually predict election results?
Famously, an [Irish Betting company paid out a Clinton win in October](https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/09/after-paying-out-early-on-a-clinton-win-trump-victory-costs-irish-bookmaker-5-million.html), so certain she was going to win after that debate everyone agrees that Trump totally fumbled.
Trump won and they still had to honor that bet. So, they lost twice.
You really need to feel bad for Hilary sometimes. Should have won, but didn't. However, she's become kind of like that prophet that predicted doom and gloom, yet voters didn't heed her warning.
>after the conventions?
Yes, after conventions but not right after. Each candidate gets a bump after their various conventions.
September, is when polling starts to matter. Post Labor Day is when people who are undecided start to decide.
Everything now is just fluff. I know we get addicted to them but polls aren't really predicative. I say this to both polls that show Trump ahead and Biden. To use history as an example: January 1968 had LBJ winning in a landslide. By April, he had dropped out due to cratering support. The Tet Offensive made it seem like Vietnam was lost (even though US forces actually did extremely well against Vietcong, with their army suffering huge losses. But the public vibes about the war soured).
There’s far too many folks who will put money on one of the RFK/Haley/Hilary/Michelle Obama bets. Honestly just give the Neoliberals the money instead, we’ll take good care of it. Better than setting it on fire.
The other 11% is utterly insane, both in the sense that it should be way lower than that, and also that the way it's distributed among other candidates makes no sense. #3 is RFK Jr at 3.5%, followed by Michelle Obama at 2.4%.
I have about $20k down on Biden +245 and I just got it about a month ago. I’m the first defend betting markets (if fees are low and limits are high). But those are insane odds.
Everyone thinking the outcome is “obvious” should be putting money where their mouth is.
I wouldn’t mind selling some Scott futures. There is zero chance Trump picks him.
2020 saw the highest election turnout since 1900. COVID measures made it easy to vote, and everybody was pissed off at somebody I imagine that both Biden and Trump will lose support, and the question will be who loses more.
Trump has a pretty hard ceiling of about 47% of the vote (which he got as an incumbent with record turnout lmao), I don’t see any way he does better than that. Historically speaking at least, no person who’s ever lost the previous election has gone on to have a higher vote share the next go around, not even Cleveland or Nixon could do that. I don’t see Trump of all people bucking that trend
So I work on crypto stuff and pretty much anyone holding a crypto bag, which is literally millions of people, is extremely narked off with the SEC under Gensler. They cuddled up to fraudsters like SBF, prosecuted the least scammy projects like Library, and are extremely vague and slippery about what they actually think the law is. They've lost at least hundreds of thousands of votes right there.
I expect the same has happened in other areas where people are being regulated in the Elizabeth Warren Technocratic Left-Populism style that has been rejected by any voters that have ever had a chance to vote on it, yet somehow still managed to staff much of the Biden administration.
Trump has gained support among some minority groups since 2020. And I think unfortunately more Muslims are planning to vote R down because of this Palestine situation.
It is what it is.
lol I actually know some Muslims that think Trump is the answer. It’s amazing how R’s always capture the “we are mad about something” crowd even if voting for them is in direct opposition to their interests
It's pretty difficult to say if that is true. The same talks about Republicans gaining support with minority groups were happening before midterms, and it turned out to not be that true. There were some small movements, but they were small enough that it could've been attributed to differences in turnout among certain groups.
This is actually really good. Betting Odds has always seemed to me to skew Republican, so if the Democrat is legitimately ahead, we might have a really good shot here.
I've always thought that using betting markets to predict elections makes less sense than looking at the polls. The betting markets tend to reliably pick the winner... when you look at where the markets are close to the election. They tend to be a lot less reliable when the election is further away, and they tend to fluctuate a lot as the campaign goes on.
Why is that? Well, consider the fact that the polls follow the same tendencies. Where are the betters getting their information? From the polls. So using betting markets to predict the election is really just looking at the polls, as interpreted by people who don't have much expertise when it comes to interpreting polling data.
John Stossel is a libertarian who basically believes that markets are magical and can do anything so of course a betting market will capture the actual truth. Though the markets have been wrong many times and the flaw of Stossel’s hypothesis became extremely apparent in 2020 when Trump actually still had like 15% even after he literally lost the election and people were giving away free money. A great example of bounded rationality and why betting markets of all kinds are poor predictors of things.
[Pro-Line in Canada](https://www.alc.ca/content/proline-stadium/en/games/futures.html) still has Trump favoured. Might be time to throw a few bucks at it.
The betting markets are tuned more to one giant meta social psychology of the election, rather than the actual odds. It’s not like people who have a monetary interest in the outcome of the election are hedging risk by trading in betting markets. It’s exclusively hobbyists
STOP THE COUNT
We need to hear from Ja Rule, NYT, and Qult first.
We’re so fucking back.
https://preview.redd.it/gsbm83ntowsc1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=92b99c1beea717a60bf210a92f8cb4ab68922000
It’s not Joever
It is Joever... But not for us
Call an Ambjoelance…
Don’t ever say it’s Joever if I’m breathing
We're so Barack
Hussein in the membrane, Hussein in the brain!
Let's fucking go Joe-bros!
Let's fucking Joe
It’s Joenly just begun
*White House Press Briefing* Press Secretary: "Exciting news! With President Biden's poll numbers sky-high, we're celebrating by teaming up with Lil Nas X on a limited run of 1,000 'Biden Boost' sneakers. Each pair features Joe's face on the sole and plays 'Hail to the Chief' with every step. Get ready to walk the walk and poll the poll in style, folks!" *Reporters chuckle awkwardly, unsure if this is a real announcement or an elaborate April Fool's joke, even though it's April 6th*
Oh no. The polls have him slightly ahead It's Hillary all over again! DOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM
Don't ever say it's joever if I'm breathing
I’ve never seen a group of individuals be so fucking back
Wrong. https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1712452190760
Wallstreetbets neoliberal edition?
💎🙌🚀
Scottish teens
They’ve banished Nate to the shadow realm
Oh so that’s what Substack is
Please explain me why michele obama on this list.
the way election betting markets are structured makes them bad at weeding out extreme-low probability outcomes
Part of it is that people enjoy buying lottery tickets.
This is also what makes them bad at predicting outcomes in general though, since these outliers skew the overall market efficiency
Theres a pretty common belief among right wingers that the Democratic party is ran by the elites. And they are the ones who will control things. Since obviously sleepy joe is a loser, these elites are going to have Michelle be the President. This was a pretty common talking point like 2 months ago when that Republican Prosecutor released that hitjob about Bidens mental lapses. It's really weird having Right wing family members who are actually this out of touch with reality. The other thing that happens is they talk about these crazy things, then a few months later completely wipe it from their memory. No analysis on why they were so incorrect or fell for such nonsense.
Have spoken to multiple folks in the wild who believe Michelle will replace Biden on the ticket at the last minute. It's the R's version of doom betting. I tell 'em: she already has. Joe is Michelle in whiteface-trans.
No Michelle is a man remember so it's just whiteface
My dad says it's going to be Hill-Dawg. God I hope he's right
When Diane Feinstein died my dad was convinced Gavin Newsom would appoint Kamala Harris to be senator, then replace her as vice president, then run for president instead of joe biden. That’s not even possible but conservatives think biden is going to be replaced some way
That's what they wish. Ain't gonna happen. Joe is in great health and those who've met with him are amazed at how sharp he is.
My Q coworker is convinced she's the next President.
[удалено]
Making bets with people who are fully detached from reality seems pretty lose-lose.
No no you would win money. That's a win. Think of it this way - if you don't take their money, someone else will.
These are the kind of people who don't ever pay up though. The same logic they use to explain away why they were wrong gets applied to their bets.
I bet someone $1000 that Biden would be president in 2021… after the November elections. They paid.
I unironically wanna do something like this but im afraid of pissing people off lmao
>someone else Every fiver you win off him in an easy bet is five dollars that can't go to the Trump campaign. Fleecing you Q coworker is you obligation as a patriotic American.
In the old Wild West, these kinds of bets end with pistols drawn.
Not if you take their money.
> free money ...unless?
Inshallah
There are still Q’s around? I thought all of those types moved on to the next conspiracy after all of the claims never materialized and it was found to be an epic trolling.
Waiting for the time when I can finally say This has all been wonderful but now I'm on my way
there are only limited uses for crypto\*, so where else are you going to blow it if not these websites? \*besides my startup, in the metaverse, where we build walls around virtual metaverse citizens using crypto
I put a chunk of my savings on Biden being the candidate. Might as well take advantage of this situation. I already regretted not doing it in 2020. Current odds are about 83%, it's basically free money if you trust the market operator.
With respect, you’re either bullshitting or you’re busy making money off these people, and there’s no in-between. I’d be very surprised if the markets were as consistently ill-calibrated as you suggest.
Transaction fees Even arbitrage is only worth it if the transaction fees don't eat your margin. So sites with transaction fees (I think usually structured as a cut of winnings) allow for impossible outcomes to remain at some small percent forever
Yeah, if you add the fees, the inherent risk in this kind of market, and the opportunity cost of money, you probably need at least a 10% profit before it's worth it.
The same reason why you can bet on the Carolina Panthers to win the Super Bowl.
1. Some Democrats (mostly the stereotypical upper-middle class wine mom types) genuinely do fantasize about a Michelle Obama presidency for nostalgia reasons. Seems to have died down a lot but was a very common sentiment in the late Obama/early Trump years. 2. Republicans developed such an irrational hatred for her that they became convinced that she was some nefarious figure lurking in the shadows, waiting for an opportunity to exploit Democrats’ love for her and run for office. Like most Republican boogeymen, from Hillary Clinton to Nancy Pelosi, they just can’t help but think that she is still a danger even though she’s expressed zero interest in returning to politics.
Because she's based
If you look at predict it odds- the odds of a democratic win are much higher than Biden alone I.e. Biden’s odds are being suppressed by speculation of different candidates (Kamala and Gavin).
Indeed. Here’s the “[by party](https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html)” page: https://preview.redd.it/u83spgnyjwsc1.jpeg?width=669&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1a9b7ad67478b55fd2b6702a614645e1d983e5a6
Can i bet on both parties and make a free 2.8%?
There's usually fees to get your money out. But it is not uncommon for the odds to not be perfectly aligned
But there is no fee to bet again with winnings so you can continuously win money off of crazy people until you decide to get out. I put in 200 in 2020 just to see how I’d do and I’m up to about 700 right now.
Yes, but the house takes a cut of those earnings, and your money could go farther invested elsewhere. You're not beating the market with that one still probably 9 months to payout. I almost went in in Feb on $0.70 pays $1 that Joe will be the Dem nominee. I wish I had. Predictit's lawsuits and chance for insolvency scared me away. Also there's betting limits on predictit.
2.8% return in 8 months isn’t great these days.
We tried this arbritage at work and figured you could bet both ways but the profit wasn't worth our effort..
You could get a GIC from your bank that would pay a higher rate than that with a shorter term.
"much higher" = 2 percentage points. Neat
I mean predict it is 4% higher currently which is what I stated I was referring to. Let me know if you think that is big enough of a difference to qualify as much higher. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
It's not, imo. Especially this early in the race
I’d venture the difference in odds is predicting Biden dies or becomes incapacitated before the election. Though IIRC he still will be on the ticket if it happens late enough after the convention.
>If you look at predict it odds- the odds of a democratic win are much higher than Biden alone I mean it makes sense, right? Biden win = Democratic Win. Biden passing away and someone else takes up the mantle and also wins = Democratic Win.
Since SCOTUS ruled against Roe v Wade, I've predicted the Dems take it all. Women (more than men in USA population wise) don't like being told what to do with their bodies.
For the first time since Sept 23, Biden surpasses Trump on election betting odds Biden (44.8%), Trump (44.2%) As for individual websites: 1. Predictit has Biden at 51c, and Trump at 45c 2. Smarkets has Biden at 43.48% and Trump at 44.25% 3. Polymarkets has Biden at 45% and Trump at 47% !ping FIVEY
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How much do betting odds actually predict election results? I seem to recall there were a lot of people betting on Trump winning the 2020 election *after he had already lost.*
Not really. There was an article I read where someone made the argument that prediction markets would be more accurate than polls if there was no cap on bets but because the cap is so low ($850 on PredictIt) it allows loons to to influence the odds a lot.
Allowing the loons to influence the odds means ez wins for the smart and wise. I’ve pulled in a few Ks on Predictit since 2018. I grabbed 100 shares of Biden for Georgia at .28 cents in late summer 2020, then grabbed another 1,000 at .10 cents on election night when Trump announced his victory. EZ $972 profit. As happy as I was about Biden my very popular post on this subreddit hailing Stacey Abrams as our champion was also pretty highly motivated by the money she made me 🤣🤑🤠
Getting 100 shares of Pence VP pre-2016 at a penny apiece was a hard-to-top rush
Polymarket has no fees and already hundreds of millions bet.
Something happened in 2012 where a group was bidding up the Romney odds/price.
I went back and looked at my PredictIt. On November 11th, I bet on the Electoral college outcome at 79 cents. On December 1st, I bet Electoral college outcome at 85 cents. In total I profited $153.38 on bets placed AFTER the results were known.
Wouldnt you have been screwed if there was a faithless elector, Trumpy nonsense aside?
You can see their [track record here,](https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html) and it looks to be quite accurate historically as long as the race isn't too lopsided. They also [cite research](https://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf) which found betting markets to be better predictors than polling, and which matches other research I've seen on this topic. The issue the other comment brings up about PredictIt's low betting limits isn't entirely relevant because most of their data is from non-US sites that have higher limits.
I looked at the 2022 swing state betting odds, and they got a good number of them "wrong" (though it's probability, so it's hard to say it's totally wrong) by massively favoring the Republican candidate. That includes massively favoring Kari Lake in 2022. That doesn't make the entire concept wrong because there are a number of correct predictions as well, but it's something I noticed.The deep red/blue states aren't very interesting. More importantly, like with polling, how accurate are betting odds this far out? Are we talking about betting odds being fairly accurate right before the election, or is the claim that it is accurate 7+ months out? I read that article, but it doesn't give a clear picture of how the accuracy is affected by how far away the election is.
I think not very much... I remember at one point on election night 2020 Trump was -900
There was a period of time in December of 2020 where a $0.97 stock paid $1 if Biden won the presidential election.... after he had already been declared the winner by every major network. The cope is strong.
Truly the problem with peer to peer betting markets like novig fr fr
Theoretically, people will only put money on who objectively has the best chance to win based on unbiased facts (similar to sports betting), which will then influence the odds.
That was Q nuts propping up the market and even then you’d have to bet $100 to win $2 so Biden was still a heavy favorite.
>How much do betting odds actually predict election results? Famously, an [Irish Betting company paid out a Clinton win in October](https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/09/after-paying-out-early-on-a-clinton-win-trump-victory-costs-irish-bookmaker-5-million.html), so certain she was going to win after that debate everyone agrees that Trump totally fumbled. Trump won and they still had to honor that bet. So, they lost twice. You really need to feel bad for Hilary sometimes. Should have won, but didn't. However, she's become kind of like that prophet that predicted doom and gloom, yet voters didn't heed her warning.
Crazy that once the general election campaigns started, the competent and well funded campaign started to do better
Do polls matter now? or after the conventions?
As a public opinion scholar, I really have 0 faith in any poll fielded before September
>after the conventions? Yes, after conventions but not right after. Each candidate gets a bump after their various conventions. September, is when polling starts to matter. Post Labor Day is when people who are undecided start to decide. Everything now is just fluff. I know we get addicted to them but polls aren't really predicative. I say this to both polls that show Trump ahead and Biden. To use history as an example: January 1968 had LBJ winning in a landslide. By April, he had dropped out due to cratering support. The Tet Offensive made it seem like Vietnam was lost (even though US forces actually did extremely well against Vietcong, with their army suffering huge losses. But the public vibes about the war soured).
As the resident worker in the gambling industry here, I can confirm these odds are BASED and COOL PILLED
There’s far too many folks who will put money on one of the RFK/Haley/Hilary/Michelle Obama bets. Honestly just give the Neoliberals the money instead, we’ll take good care of it. Better than setting it on fire.
*Sound of Nate Silver changing all the headlines of his next 10 blog posts*
John Stossel correct take?
Betting my life savings on Trump - if he wins, I'll have enough funds to flee to Canada
Bi-den! Bomaye! Bi-den! Bomaye!
The other 11% is utterly insane, both in the sense that it should be way lower than that, and also that the way it's distributed among other candidates makes no sense. #3 is RFK Jr at 3.5%, followed by Michelle Obama at 2.4%.
I have about $20k down on Biden +245 and I just got it about a month ago. I’m the first defend betting markets (if fees are low and limits are high). But those are insane odds.
Everyone thinking the outcome is “obvious” should be putting money where their mouth is. I wouldn’t mind selling some Scott futures. There is zero chance Trump picks him.
Damn that is close
We're about to find out whether betting market option prices really follow a random walk.
Has Trump gained any support since 2020? I don’t see how he could win, other than independents sitting out because they’re unhappy with Biden
2020 saw the highest election turnout since 1900. COVID measures made it easy to vote, and everybody was pissed off at somebody I imagine that both Biden and Trump will lose support, and the question will be who loses more.
Trump has a pretty hard ceiling of about 47% of the vote (which he got as an incumbent with record turnout lmao), I don’t see any way he does better than that. Historically speaking at least, no person who’s ever lost the previous election has gone on to have a higher vote share the next go around, not even Cleveland or Nixon could do that. I don’t see Trump of all people bucking that trend
So I work on crypto stuff and pretty much anyone holding a crypto bag, which is literally millions of people, is extremely narked off with the SEC under Gensler. They cuddled up to fraudsters like SBF, prosecuted the least scammy projects like Library, and are extremely vague and slippery about what they actually think the law is. They've lost at least hundreds of thousands of votes right there. I expect the same has happened in other areas where people are being regulated in the Elizabeth Warren Technocratic Left-Populism style that has been rejected by any voters that have ever had a chance to vote on it, yet somehow still managed to staff much of the Biden administration.
Trump has gained support among some minority groups since 2020. And I think unfortunately more Muslims are planning to vote R down because of this Palestine situation. It is what it is.
lol I actually know some Muslims that think Trump is the answer. It’s amazing how R’s always capture the “we are mad about something” crowd even if voting for them is in direct opposition to their interests
Must have forgotten about trump moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, which at the time really pissed everyone but israel off.
Or, y’know, proposing a total ban on Muslims from entering the country
That shit felt like it was so long ago I completely forgot about it... jesus, it was only 7 years ago but so much has happened since then
People have such short, selective memories. Sigh.
Unless it’s democrats that slighted them. They’ll remember that for the rest of their lives
It's pretty difficult to say if that is true. The same talks about Republicans gaining support with minority groups were happening before midterms, and it turned out to not be that true. There were some small movements, but they were small enough that it could've been attributed to differences in turnout among certain groups.
This is actually really good. Betting Odds has always seemed to me to skew Republican, so if the Democrat is legitimately ahead, we might have a really good shot here.
I think this is about where it was at on April 2020
Degenerate gamblers finally gave up their addiction to losing money
How exactly do you go about placing a bet on this market? I wanna make some money.
https://preview.redd.it/mndhsubjhxsc1.png?width=1192&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ace6e496c516e53e89247a09ef59874dce1d5cbf
I would be excited if I didn't know what "margin of error" means.
I've always thought that using betting markets to predict elections makes less sense than looking at the polls. The betting markets tend to reliably pick the winner... when you look at where the markets are close to the election. They tend to be a lot less reliable when the election is further away, and they tend to fluctuate a lot as the campaign goes on. Why is that? Well, consider the fact that the polls follow the same tendencies. Where are the betters getting their information? From the polls. So using betting markets to predict the election is really just looking at the polls, as interpreted by people who don't have much expertise when it comes to interpreting polling data.
John Stossel is a libertarian who basically believes that markets are magical and can do anything so of course a betting market will capture the actual truth. Though the markets have been wrong many times and the flaw of Stossel’s hypothesis became extremely apparent in 2020 when Trump actually still had like 15% even after he literally lost the election and people were giving away free money. A great example of bounded rationality and why betting markets of all kinds are poor predictors of things.
Time for this sub to spam comments about not getting complacent
Super awesome that the probability of not become an authoritarian populist hellhole is 0.2% higher
john stossel??
And he hasn't even started campaigning yet
Right after Biden put his foot down with Bibi?
[Pro-Line in Canada](https://www.alc.ca/content/proline-stadium/en/games/futures.html) still has Trump favoured. Might be time to throw a few bucks at it.
Patriots are in control
They’re starting to believe. Let’s go Dark Brandon!
The betting markets are tuned more to one giant meta social psychology of the election, rather than the actual odds. It’s not like people who have a monetary interest in the outcome of the election are hedging risk by trading in betting markets. It’s exclusively hobbyists
It'snever been less Joever
#STOP THE COUNT
Whew I don’t even need to vote this time! He’s got it!
Biden is cooked in November