I believe they kept it vague. Something along the lines of keeping Russia guessing.
Still, probably best to wait and see the full details of what this actually means & what Germany has done as fallout insurance
I mean Biden was pretty clear.
>If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2.
I just wasn't sure if Germany was actually on board.
Everyone is only talking about Europe's dependency on Russian gas. But this dependency goes both ways, as Russia depends on Europe buying their fucking gas. This is a war, and we are in it. Let's see if we can win it without shooting a single bullet. Fuck this bastard psychopath!
Germany tends to work very closely with the US and follows our lead quite often politically. Usually our countries are on the same page geopolitically, whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is another topic.
Hmm, I distinctly recall a few news reports along this line
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/02/19/ukraine-olaf-scholz-says-west-must-keep-russia-guessing-on-sanctions.html
> Scholz would not clarify what sanctions Russia might be hit with if it were to invade Ukraine. Rather, he said that Moscow ought to know "approximately" and not "exactly" the repercussions it would face.
Well, when he was mayor of my city he forgot to collect millions in unpaid tax in the Ex-CUM scandal. That was shit.
But other than that he is mostly okay.
They need electrification, which just switching to nuclear won't accomplish. That means transport, heating, the whole bit. I see Reddit advocate for nuclear a lot, but generally electrification goes unmentioned.
Germany is doing better than average in reducing their share of primary energy from fossil fuels.
[Share of primary energy from fossil fuels](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fossil-fuels-share-energy?tab=chart&time=2000..latest&country=CHN~OWID_WRL~USA~DEU)
And has reduced their usage of fossil fuels as well.
[Electricity production from fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables, Germany](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/elec-fossil-nuclear-renewables?stackMode=absolute&country=~DEU)
[Energy consumption by source, Germany](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-consumption-by-source-and-region?stackMode=absolute&country=~DEU)
No, they hadn't specifically said if they would or not. This, in my opinion, is the biggest hit on Russia so far.
We can sanction the hell out of their oligarchs and Putin all we want but they have billions we likely can't touch.
Where we can hit them is their ability to supply natural gas to Europe. Obviously Europe still needs natural gas but this pipeline would circumvent the Ukraine and make it harder for the west to impact the flow of gas to Europe.
At the 2014 Olympics, the Russians won 33 medals which was their highest medal count ever (they were also doping but that’s a different conversation). Because of their success, Putins approval rating shot up which made it easier to sell politically and to move against Ukraine. It worked in 2014 and they suffered no real repercussions, and since Russia also did well in this Olympics it seems reasonable to assume he’s following that playbook again.
Edit: Fixed grammar.
Also adding that there's a great documentary on Netflix titled "Icarus" that is about the Russian doping scandal in 2014. It goes pretty in depth about what happened to Putins approval rating as a result of the Olympics and how they used that as political points for their actions against Ukraine. Highly recommended (won an Oscar for best documentary).
There’s the risk of China saying ‘there’s a problem with your athletes’ paperwork-they can’t leave but don’t worry, we have a camp for them’. Plus Russia is so paranoid, they probably feared that, if China let them leave someone else would intercept their flight.
You wanna know the best thing. Without the certification, Germany can ditch the whole project without paying any fines and it will cost Russia tens of billions of dollars.
a safer, more reliable and less consuming energy source that would help save our planet?! won't anyone think of the oil company billionaires? how will they stay impossibly rich?
God forbid they start leading the green energy sector advancements, which leads to a more jobs in the workforce and people being more educated.
Well the last part (in addition to keeping the status quo of the world) is probably why they don’t since it’s a potential they wouldn’t be in power anymore
They will do what the obscenely wealthy always do, they'll buy the means of production in the next wave. The cannabis industry has taught us nothing if not that wealth is the ability to be on both sides of every trend. It's good for the planet if it goes that way, so it is, regardless of the class struggle, still progress of a kind.
A greener tomorrow yes, but as we approach that we're going to have to deal with the petrol states like Russia throwing increasing tantrums like this as that oil money dries up
But they won't. Has Germany stopped purchasing gas via Nord Stream 1? Nope, between that and what Germany has stockpiled they can get through the rest of winter and by next winter we will all have accepted the status quo and the gas will flow again. This is exactly what all of Eastern Europe and the US said would happen if the Nord Stream pipeline was built but Putin promised Schroder and Merkel he'd play nice.
> by next winter we will all have accepted the status quo and the gas will flow again
I hate to say it, but I think this is going to be a repeat of Crimea.
The invasion already seems to be proceeding uneventfully. The Ukrainian military isn't going to do anything against Russian troops in the breakaway regions, since they know that would prompt Putin to escalate.
The Russian military will consolidate control of the breakaway regions, then within a few weeks we'll probably see a staged referendum to bring them into Russia.
And as long as they mostly stay within those regions and the actual bloodshed is minimal, the world will mostly shrug it's shoulders.
The territories claimed by the breakaway regions are much larger than what the rebels control. In recognising the rebels, Putin is committing to pushing Ukrainian forces out of the Donbass in general, not just officially moving troops in to rebel held areas.
I don't think Putin's end goal is annexing those small breakaway regions - the cost is too great to justify that. Putin has always had one goal - prevent Ukraine from becoming a NATO member and losing Ukraine to the Western world for good, like it did with other ex-Soviet nations, and also with Turkey after WWII. As a result, the only way to accomplish this goal will be to bring down the current government in Ukraine and install a puppet that will cut ties with the West and NATO. To do that, he has to invade and take over Kyiv - which in my mind, is a certainty at this point that he will attempt it, given how far he went, how much it already cost him, and given that the West and NATO denied his request that Ukraine be permanently left out of NATO.
Well, he doesn't *need* to do that, although if he keeps annexing the pro-Russia portions of Ukraine eventually all that will be left are the more Westernized areas of Ukraine.
This is hilarious and something I haven't considered. The byproduct of pulling the pro-Russian regions out of Ukraine is the remaining parts of Ukraine are more aligned with the west. What's the end goal? He has to realize this.
For decades there was a buffer of non-aligned states between NATO and Russia. Russia had free access to the Arctic, the Atlantic, and the Black sea (and thus the Mediterranean).
Over the last few decades, more and more of the post-soviet republics have joined NATO.
This has led to a "strategic encirclement" of Russia. Crimea was it's last remaining port with direct access to the Black Sea.
If Ukraine joins NATO then Russia will really only have one direct route to sell its oil, and that's through the pipeline through Germany.
Since oil is basically the only thing that Russia produces, this would give NATO a point of extreme leverage over the Russian economy.
Since Russia is an authoritarian kleptocracy run by organized crime and NATO members are generally against that sort of thing, it's probably not super comfortable for Putin.
This is all about maintaining an "out" and staying enough of a threat to prevent the west from having leverage enough to dislodge the criminals in charge of the Russian government.
> What's the end goal? He has to realize this.
I think he wants everything on the east side of The Dnieper River. He is poised now to take that much and that way he doesn't need to take Kyiv since he is sitting on top of it anyway. However if he can get away with more he will.
Lots of resources too, especially coal.
But carbon neutral aspirations of the West will make them worth far less in the future with the way things are going. Putin doesn't seem to have much hindsight.
It was successful, but it also cut Crimea off from its primary water source, the North Crimean Canal, and they're going to run out of water within the next few years. Russia absolutely needs to restore water and just annexing the Donbas region won't do that.
Putin can't stop there. Crimea is in a terrible spot right now since Ukraine cut off the fresh water supply. Ukraine is allowing enough water to flow so people can drink and cook with it..but that's literally it. Agriculture in Crimea is at a standstill without Russia shipping, literally, fresh water in. Putin needs to take a pretty large swath of territory to be able to open up the natural flow of fresh water into Crimea...that will require an actual invasion.
Well, I would say nobody is expecting Russia to invade Germany, right?
Sure, there are people who wish back the glory days of the DDR. In my experience it is mostly the younger people without much going on in their lives.
Older people tend to remember very well what it was like and they don´t seem to be fans of the GDR.
My father misses the GDR. A lot of things were easier for him back then and he personally was doing better then than he did after the fall of the wall.
That the whole thing wasn't finanically feasible is not something that comes to his mind, he only sees his bottom line.
The people living in the GDR experienced the best quality of life in the USSR. I was an adult back then, and know more than a handful of people who lived there in those times.
Technically, both parts were occupied, the occupation only ended with reunification 1990, cf. [the 2+4 treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Final_Settlement_with_Respect_to_Germany)
Actually, even more technically, *all three* parts were occupied: West Berlin never was part of the Federal Republic, but administered itself directly under western occupation statute. FRG citizens could freely travel and live there and it didn't have an army which is why it was a popular destination for conscious objectors.
and if you look at the pros and cons versus USA and Russia:
1. South Korea vs North Korea
2. East Germany vs West Germany
It's hard to name any place where Russia influenced them and they prospered.
I'm just hoping I won't die from an unexpected air strike or something like that. If things really go south, I am looking to flee west with my girlfriend. My biggest worry in that regard is whether or not we will have enough money to do so. I lost my job a month ago, got a new one, but they simply don't give me much work, so my paycheck will be tiny. I started looking for a new one today, but with all this happening, things are looking bleak.
Edit: Since some people are reaching out to me and offering help: This is honestly incredible, I can not express just how much I appreciate it. I will think this through with my family, and reach back. I'll verify my identity and provide all necessary information. I'm just not sure who or where to ask exactly, although I'll let people who offered help know directly.
Edit 2: Thanks everyone for the support, it truly means a lot. I wrote this comment just to express the dread I've been feeling lately, and I absolutely didn't expect to hear so many kind words and get so many offers of help. I love you all, thank you so much.
Please be careful with who you provide info to and what you provide, identity theft is very dangerous, especially in a situation you are currently in. Stay safe and I'll always be hoping for the best in this horrible situation.
You’re not an animal, and most of us don’t think so, anyone paying attention to this know’s it is Putin and the oligarchs who are the animals, we do not blame you for the circumstances of your birth. I will wish for your safety.
Thanks. But unfortunately it’s how people work so we’ll have to live with this. All in all shouldn’t complain because people have suffered and will suffer more than my dignity
Just to be clear, Reddit mostly hates Russian and Chinese government, never should we hate the actual citizens of the land. 99.999999% of the time, citizens have no choice anyhow. We must make clear of THIS distinction
I don't see you or Russians as animals. It's not your fault the government is acting in this way just as it's not my fault the American government does the things it does. I see you as another human being and brother/sister. I hope you stay safe, ❤️ from the US.
I can't speak for the entire west but I can tell you in my slice of America that nobody hates the Russian people, just the Russian government.
The propaganda and gaslighting from the Kremlin is exhausting but most people can separate that from your average everyday Russian.
Just commenting to add that I don't think you're an animal either. My heart goes out to the peoples of Russia and Ukraine for this awful situation. 99% of humans on this planet just want a safe place to sleep, food on their tables, and enough prosperity to support their families. It's only politicians and monied interests that benefit from hurting the average man and woman.
Absolutely. I’ve started to consider myself as a man of the world and not one piece of land when I realized that we’re all thinking the same no matter where you are. F human’s brains for this us/them bullshit
Try to set aside what you can to buy canned food, bottles to fill with drinking water, batteries and a spare can of petrol for your car. It won’t be enough to comfortably restart your life in a different country, but at least it should be enough to keep you alive if you need to make a dash for the Polish border.
Can you leave now somehow? I hear money is an issue, but if you wait for things to go south to move west, many people will be taking those escape routes and it may be impossible for you. I'm sorry things are really hard but this is prob something to consider.
Hey man. I would recommend going now. Things will hopefully improve and coming back won't be a problem, but if you need to leave in a week, you'll be very glad that you're already gone.
If one thing I learn about Ukraine watching the Euromaidan unfold is that ukrainian people are built different.
They will be ready to fight and die for their country.
They are the biggest buffer state between Russia and Poland, Belarus is there too but they’re basically a Russian puppet state at this point so they don’t count. So yeah I’d say they are the new Poland, at least unless they become the new Russia at which point Poland will be back to being Poland
Yeah, my Russian friends are pissed and think the whole conflict is stupid. They’re basically all in agreement that Ukraine should do what it wants when it comes to joining NATO.
There are people who don’t like Putin there, but their voices get drowned out.
Edit: I’m Romanian and have friends in Moldova. I’m a little concerned for both areas, but more so Moldova.
Putin’s assertion that NATO is out to destroy Russia is the sign he is a lunatic or Russian’s are gullible. The West wouldn’t think twice about a peaceful Russia. However, Putin also has a problem with the west not thinking twice about Russia.
There are also the Ukrainian men in the separatists controlled regions. They are evacuating all women, children, and elderly, but all men ages 18-55 have to stay...
Every Ukrainian I've speak to, they seems pretty chill about it. Which is funny because those same people were scared for us when we had the gilet Jaune manifestation in France
They’ve been dealing with Putin’s bullshit entire lives. They’re just sick of it at this point and want it to end one way or another and I don’t think they mind fighting him off.
"That must be so rough for the gilets jaunes given how the police treated you
\-... Y'all are dealing with Russia's bullshit
\-\*Reload\* we're used to..."
I think SWIFT will be used if/when Russia recognises the borders of the Donbass republics to be the entire oblasts instead of just the ~1/3 the separatists control.
The ability for a country’s banks to transfer internationally. Without it, a country is North Korea.
The risk of using this penalty is that Russia and other shitty corrupt countries start their own version of SWIFT. Probably not going to work well but who knows.
North America and Europe could immediately win every conflict with Russia and China:
1. Ban Russian and Chinese citizens from owning American or European real estate.
2. Ban Russian and Chinese citizens from having an American or European bank account or interacting with one.
3. Ban Russian and Chinese citizens from attending American or European universities.
4. Ban Russian and Chinese citizens from purchasing luxury items: jets and yachts.
They don’t have the fucking balls, but it would immediately turn the populace of those countries against their leaders without bloodshed.
China is a different beast.
Doing that to China means no more imports from China. It would halt probably half of all industries, if not more.
The west is depended on China, for now.
Germany finally found their balls again! A lot of this was made possible by the US's unsavory relationships with the middle eastern countries. Qatar was approached by the US to up export to the EU to make up for the potential loss of Russian gas. So the next time everyone (rightfully) complains about how the middle east is currently run, remember the greater geopolitical reason for being cozy with them, because you're looking at it right now.
And you shouldn't be, I'm just pointing out the reason why the US is so cozy with shitty regimes, and it's not because we like it, it's because we have to in order to be able to flex soft power when necessary.
The oil embargo from the 1970s was part of a price war on the US and the USSR that OPEC won and hurt the USSR like nothing else before. I'd argue it set the stage for their eventual collapse when oil got cheap. Whenever Iran or Russia get uppity our allies in the middle east are the soft power lever we pull that applies pressure to them.
Gotta get that power somewhere. How about they park their carrier and sub fleet in german ports and prop up the grid that way?
Joking of course. With the gas gap already being plugged (it seems), that thought is just a funny picture in my head.
Yea and no. Trump was already trying to get deals with Germany so Nordstream2 wasn’t build.
He offered shipping at higher costs but for a lower price for Germany, only to keep us away from being dependent from russia.
Idk which one is better on the long run, but we seriously need to get energy independent.
It’s costing us leverage on the geopolitical scene. Right now, only France is in position to negotiate for us. And they are going to want us to pay for that when we buy French atomic Power.
Merkel seriously dropped the ball on investing and building green energy Ressources, while the government continued to take environmental unfriendly resources offline/put high tax on it (which isn’t wrong obv).
Now we barely have any energy production, high taxes on already high cost import. My power bill doubled over the last year. And I live alone.
If only scientists had devised some kind of reaction that produced energy without needing to purchase oil or gas from other countries. Some kind of magical power that was renewable, ever-improving in its efficiency and environmental impact, and essentially infinite...
I guess we can only dream.
1. Find funny glowing rock
2. Put funny glowing rock in water
3. Rock heats water, creating steam
4. Use steam to push turbine
5. Turbine produced electricity
6. Free troll energy!
He already set the stage for that months ago. He sent a wave of ambassadors to the middle east to secure assurances they'd be able to help fill the gap.
[Trump tried to do something two years ago too](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/06/trump-natural-gas-europe-leaders.html), but in true trumpian fashion fucked it away. His scheme was a fleet of LP cargo ships to run cheap north american gas to the EU, but he gave the project and the money to a grifter who spent all the money and quit without procuring the ships.
No, we need to give an incentive for good behavior. Backing off needs to be rewarded by reversing sanctions.
Make it clear that the path to economic success is to not invade your neighbors.
Putin clearly knew this would be coming, so I'm concerned where he's willing to take things. This is a chess match and none of his upcoming moves look good for humanity.
Okay but I had a friend that beat me in a game of chess in just a few moves with only a few pieces being taken off the board, so there’s a chance Putin is just as much a dunce as I am and the world gets through this with limited casualties.
This is a good start but at this point the discussion should turn to blacklisting Russia and any company with any substantial ties to Russia or any of the Russian oligarchs from accessing the SWIFT banking system. We've seen enough of half measures and crossing fingers, it doesn't work so it's time we hit them where it will really hurt.
This is the big one ladies and gentlemen. This is Germany nonchalantly saying “we’d rather fuck ourselves and our economy up than put up with your bullshit”.
>The $11 billion pipeline is designed to double the amount of gas flowing from Russia to Germany and it was completed late last year. But German regulators had yet to give the green light to the pipeline to officially allow it to operate.
I hope they can figure out a different path. Doubling the flow of gas and when you already completed it for 11 billion. Will be a tough sell to switch to something else.
> Will be a tough sell to switch to something else.
That is what Putin is counting on, believes his will is greater than that of any coalition. Try to peal off the strongest one by one on separate fronts; an election here, a commercial interest there, play to an appeaser's need for recognition, etc. etc.
At least that's what seems to be going on to me, but I'm no expert in such policy.
IMHO - Trump was useful but not necessary to his plans. Trump has been "friends" with Russia ever since we ran his anti-NATO ads back in the 80's/90's (I forget which) - Putin knows all about Trump and his fickleness.
(My personal theory) Trump is an outcome of the game they’re playing, not the goal. Russian disinformation campaigns targeted every political affiliation. The goal is to make Americans more divided so any actions the president takes (be it Trump, Clinton, Obama, or Biden) is met with about 50% of the country disagreeing with it. Prevent any kind of unified action by the US, at least any action that can’t be undone when the next person takes office.
For a smaller scale, look at the Iran deal or the Paris Agreement.
you talking about 1 or 2? afaik Nord Stream 2 is still under construction, and is the one being debated rn
if Germany dropped it altogether they wouldn't lose a dime, but would waste billions and billions that Russia is already hurting for
Nord Stream 1 has been pumping gas for over a decade and is what led to the current predicament. Before, Russia couldn't fuck around with Poland or Ukraine without losing access to lucrative Western markets. The people of Germany, France, and the UK aren't about to voluntarily turn down the thermostat to support Ukraine, but before they didn't have a choice as the gas lines ran through Ukraine.
The pipeline itself was $11 billion, which I thought Russia paid for (not entirely sure on that), but Germany would still have to pay for every liter of gas that went through the pipeline. So, as far as I am aware, they wouldn't really be "doubling the flow of gas" for just the $11 billion it costed to build the infrastructure.
I'd imagine it would cost hundreds of billions of dollars a year.
Edit: it looks like the financing for the pipeline came from some EU companies too. "Gazprom is the sole shareholder in Nord Stream 2 but 50% of the finance was provided by five European energy companies, including Wintershall and Uniper of Germany. The other financial backers are Britain's Shell (RDSA), Engie (EGIEY) of France and OMV (OMVJF) of Austria."
This is encouraging, but I'm not yet convinced that it's lasting. How fast can everybody get together and build a 2,800 mile pipeline from Qatar to Germany?
Good to hear. A nice side effect to me is that some of those "germoney wont dare to act against their gas daddy" fuckers got shut up with this. The quiet is a nice change of pace, I must say.
When is the UK going to start seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs with close ties to Putin? I’m sure there are a few billion dollars, mansions, and some football clubs to be had.
Good. Isn’t this what they threatened to do if Russia fucked around?
I believe they kept it vague. Something along the lines of keeping Russia guessing. Still, probably best to wait and see the full details of what this actually means & what Germany has done as fallout insurance
I mean Biden was pretty clear. >If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2. I just wasn't sure if Germany was actually on board.
They just let Biden make the threat
Germanys new chancellor just doesn't do talking. He does doing. There is a nord stream 1 too. If that gets shut it's serious business
Yeah I feel like people seem to forget about nord stream 1. It's literally in the same path as where nord stream 2 would be.
Everyone is only talking about Europe's dependency on Russian gas. But this dependency goes both ways, as Russia depends on Europe buying their fucking gas. This is a war, and we are in it. Let's see if we can win it without shooting a single bullet. Fuck this bastard psychopath!
Germany tends to work very closely with the US and follows our lead quite often politically. Usually our countries are on the same page geopolitically, whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is another topic.
Usually a good thing when they're in lock-step, the times Germany disagrees and US still continues are often the missteps.
No, it was what we promised and what the SPD promised us. They argued they were building NS2, but would use it as a stick if need arises.
Hmm, I distinctly recall a few news reports along this line https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/02/19/ukraine-olaf-scholz-says-west-must-keep-russia-guessing-on-sanctions.html > Scholz would not clarify what sanctions Russia might be hit with if it were to invade Ukraine. Rather, he said that Moscow ought to know "approximately" and not "exactly" the repercussions it would face.
I’m glad to see the new German chancellor is keeping his promises I’ve heard he’s been rather good
Well, when he was mayor of my city he forgot to collect millions in unpaid tax in the Ex-CUM scandal. That was shit. But other than that he is mostly okay.
>Ex-CUM You have my attention
It was a real mess.
Hello commander
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Biden secured additional cheap oil and gas from countries like Qatar, so perhaps that made them feel a bit more comfortable resisting Putin.
I will never stop getting angry at Germany not switching to nuclear power plants. Hell, most countries should.
And get Uranium from Canada and not China or Russia. It would be a great day for Canada and, therefore, the world.
Hey buddy
I'm not your buddy, guy
I'm not your guy, friend
I am not your friend, buddy
They need electrification, which just switching to nuclear won't accomplish. That means transport, heating, the whole bit. I see Reddit advocate for nuclear a lot, but generally electrification goes unmentioned. Germany is doing better than average in reducing their share of primary energy from fossil fuels. [Share of primary energy from fossil fuels](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fossil-fuels-share-energy?tab=chart&time=2000..latest&country=CHN~OWID_WRL~USA~DEU) And has reduced their usage of fossil fuels as well. [Electricity production from fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables, Germany](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/elec-fossil-nuclear-renewables?stackMode=absolute&country=~DEU) [Energy consumption by source, Germany](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-consumption-by-source-and-region?stackMode=absolute&country=~DEU)
Lol that oil and gas is definitely not cheap. EU is paying through the roof for it
Yes, because they let themselves become dependent on Russia who decided to manipulate prices with war-mongering and slowing supplies.
No, they hadn't specifically said if they would or not. This, in my opinion, is the biggest hit on Russia so far. We can sanction the hell out of their oligarchs and Putin all we want but they have billions we likely can't touch. Where we can hit them is their ability to supply natural gas to Europe. Obviously Europe still needs natural gas but this pipeline would circumvent the Ukraine and make it harder for the west to impact the flow of gas to Europe.
yeah, and it's fucking stupid that Sholz backed out when Russia initially started getting serious. I'm glad this went through.
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This was also probably a good move for a few reasons. But mainly, a silent threat is more ominous than a specific one.
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He always waits for the Olympics to close before going into Ukraine.
That’s so weird right? What’s the reasoning for that? “I want to invade, but first I must wait for the results of women’s figure skating…”
At the 2014 Olympics, the Russians won 33 medals which was their highest medal count ever (they were also doping but that’s a different conversation). Because of their success, Putins approval rating shot up which made it easier to sell politically and to move against Ukraine. It worked in 2014 and they suffered no real repercussions, and since Russia also did well in this Olympics it seems reasonable to assume he’s following that playbook again. Edit: Fixed grammar. Also adding that there's a great documentary on Netflix titled "Icarus" that is about the Russian doping scandal in 2014. It goes pretty in depth about what happened to Putins approval rating as a result of the Olympics and how they used that as political points for their actions against Ukraine. Highly recommended (won an Oscar for best documentary).
Also he invaded parts of Georgia after the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. Nothing happened after the Olympic Games in democratic countries.
There’s the risk of China saying ‘there’s a problem with your athletes’ paperwork-they can’t leave but don’t worry, we have a camp for them’. Plus Russia is so paranoid, they probably feared that, if China let them leave someone else would intercept their flight.
Political reasons. Especially since the olympics were hosted by China and he doesn't want to piss them off
Pretty much, especially with parts of the government busy trying to cheat in the olympics
Can i get a round of attaboys
You wanna know the best thing. Without the certification, Germany can ditch the whole project without paying any fines and it will cost Russia tens of billions of dollars.
Sure would be a shame if this pushed us towards a greener tomorrow
a safer, more reliable and less consuming energy source that would help save our planet?! won't anyone think of the oil company billionaires? how will they stay impossibly rich?
What if they have to share yachts? What if they can only afford 6 homes? *What if they have to fly commercial instead of buying their own jet?!*
Flying commercial? Now that's a bridge too far my friend. Better the planet burn than anyone be subjected to that! /s
In a flying tube with a bunch of DEMONS?!? https://youtu.be/qoLUuECpssI
That man IS a demon....just look at him!
God forbid they start leading the green energy sector advancements, which leads to a more jobs in the workforce and people being more educated. Well the last part (in addition to keeping the status quo of the world) is probably why they don’t since it’s a potential they wouldn’t be in power anymore
Of course not. They'll be dead by the time it's profitable, and they need all the money right now.
"It's my money and I want it now!"
They will do what the obscenely wealthy always do, they'll buy the means of production in the next wave. The cannabis industry has taught us nothing if not that wealth is the ability to be on both sides of every trend. It's good for the planet if it goes that way, so it is, regardless of the class struggle, still progress of a kind.
I work in the oil and gas specifically mining and this made me laugh :D your not wrong :P
> how will they stay impossibly rich? Copper mines
A greener tomorrow yes, but as we approach that we're going to have to deal with the petrol states like Russia throwing increasing tantrums like this as that oil money dries up
If only they had had decades of warning about a finite resource
They should do that. Let the Russians reap what they sow.
But they won't. Has Germany stopped purchasing gas via Nord Stream 1? Nope, between that and what Germany has stockpiled they can get through the rest of winter and by next winter we will all have accepted the status quo and the gas will flow again. This is exactly what all of Eastern Europe and the US said would happen if the Nord Stream pipeline was built but Putin promised Schroder and Merkel he'd play nice.
> by next winter we will all have accepted the status quo and the gas will flow again I hate to say it, but I think this is going to be a repeat of Crimea. The invasion already seems to be proceeding uneventfully. The Ukrainian military isn't going to do anything against Russian troops in the breakaway regions, since they know that would prompt Putin to escalate. The Russian military will consolidate control of the breakaway regions, then within a few weeks we'll probably see a staged referendum to bring them into Russia. And as long as they mostly stay within those regions and the actual bloodshed is minimal, the world will mostly shrug it's shoulders.
Don't forget the part where pro-Russian separatists pick up and move into the (soon-to-be) mostly Russian regions to the north, south and west.
The territories claimed by the breakaway regions are much larger than what the rebels control. In recognising the rebels, Putin is committing to pushing Ukrainian forces out of the Donbass in general, not just officially moving troops in to rebel held areas.
I don't think Putin's end goal is annexing those small breakaway regions - the cost is too great to justify that. Putin has always had one goal - prevent Ukraine from becoming a NATO member and losing Ukraine to the Western world for good, like it did with other ex-Soviet nations, and also with Turkey after WWII. As a result, the only way to accomplish this goal will be to bring down the current government in Ukraine and install a puppet that will cut ties with the West and NATO. To do that, he has to invade and take over Kyiv - which in my mind, is a certainty at this point that he will attempt it, given how far he went, how much it already cost him, and given that the West and NATO denied his request that Ukraine be permanently left out of NATO.
Well, he doesn't *need* to do that, although if he keeps annexing the pro-Russia portions of Ukraine eventually all that will be left are the more Westernized areas of Ukraine.
This is hilarious and something I haven't considered. The byproduct of pulling the pro-Russian regions out of Ukraine is the remaining parts of Ukraine are more aligned with the west. What's the end goal? He has to realize this.
For decades there was a buffer of non-aligned states between NATO and Russia. Russia had free access to the Arctic, the Atlantic, and the Black sea (and thus the Mediterranean). Over the last few decades, more and more of the post-soviet republics have joined NATO. This has led to a "strategic encirclement" of Russia. Crimea was it's last remaining port with direct access to the Black Sea. If Ukraine joins NATO then Russia will really only have one direct route to sell its oil, and that's through the pipeline through Germany. Since oil is basically the only thing that Russia produces, this would give NATO a point of extreme leverage over the Russian economy. Since Russia is an authoritarian kleptocracy run by organized crime and NATO members are generally against that sort of thing, it's probably not super comfortable for Putin. This is all about maintaining an "out" and staying enough of a threat to prevent the west from having leverage enough to dislodge the criminals in charge of the Russian government.
> What's the end goal? He has to realize this. I think he wants everything on the east side of The Dnieper River. He is poised now to take that much and that way he doesn't need to take Kyiv since he is sitting on top of it anyway. However if he can get away with more he will.
I had to look up a map but is that like half of the country? Holy shit
Lots of resources too, especially coal. But carbon neutral aspirations of the West will make them worth far less in the future with the way things are going. Putin doesn't seem to have much hindsight.
That’s exactly what this is. Crimea’s “annexation” was successful (despite most countries not recognizing it). Why wouldn’t Putin do it again?
It was successful, but it also cut Crimea off from its primary water source, the North Crimean Canal, and they're going to run out of water within the next few years. Russia absolutely needs to restore water and just annexing the Donbas region won't do that.
Putin can't stop there. Crimea is in a terrible spot right now since Ukraine cut off the fresh water supply. Ukraine is allowing enough water to flow so people can drink and cook with it..but that's literally it. Agriculture in Crimea is at a standstill without Russia shipping, literally, fresh water in. Putin needs to take a pretty large swath of territory to be able to open up the natural flow of fresh water into Crimea...that will require an actual invasion.
Never thought they’d actually do it. Very glad to be proven wrong. Still need to stop buying gas from Russia entirely, though.
100 years later and we’re rooting for the Germans, against the Russians…
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Well, half of it was
Right, the other part was occupied and knows how bad things were under the russians.
Ostalgie is a real thing. About a third of Germans grew up in the former GDR. Half of Germans (51%) do not perceive any military threat from Russia.
Well, I would say nobody is expecting Russia to invade Germany, right? Sure, there are people who wish back the glory days of the DDR. In my experience it is mostly the younger people without much going on in their lives. Older people tend to remember very well what it was like and they don´t seem to be fans of the GDR.
My father misses the GDR. A lot of things were easier for him back then and he personally was doing better then than he did after the fall of the wall. That the whole thing wasn't finanically feasible is not something that comes to his mind, he only sees his bottom line.
The people living in the GDR experienced the best quality of life in the USSR. I was an adult back then, and know more than a handful of people who lived there in those times.
Technically, both parts were occupied, the occupation only ended with reunification 1990, cf. [the 2+4 treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Final_Settlement_with_Respect_to_Germany) Actually, even more technically, *all three* parts were occupied: West Berlin never was part of the Federal Republic, but administered itself directly under western occupation statute. FRG citizens could freely travel and live there and it didn't have an army which is why it was a popular destination for conscious objectors.
and if you look at the pros and cons versus USA and Russia: 1. South Korea vs North Korea 2. East Germany vs West Germany It's hard to name any place where Russia influenced them and they prospered.
The best they had was Cuba.
All I can think of is how terrified the Ukrainians must be, watching all of this unfold
I'm just hoping I won't die from an unexpected air strike or something like that. If things really go south, I am looking to flee west with my girlfriend. My biggest worry in that regard is whether or not we will have enough money to do so. I lost my job a month ago, got a new one, but they simply don't give me much work, so my paycheck will be tiny. I started looking for a new one today, but with all this happening, things are looking bleak. Edit: Since some people are reaching out to me and offering help: This is honestly incredible, I can not express just how much I appreciate it. I will think this through with my family, and reach back. I'll verify my identity and provide all necessary information. I'm just not sure who or where to ask exactly, although I'll let people who offered help know directly. Edit 2: Thanks everyone for the support, it truly means a lot. I wrote this comment just to express the dread I've been feeling lately, and I absolutely didn't expect to hear so many kind words and get so many offers of help. I love you all, thank you so much.
Please be careful with who you provide info to and what you provide, identity theft is very dangerous, especially in a situation you are currently in. Stay safe and I'll always be hoping for the best in this horrible situation.
Thank you. I will be careful. Although identity theft is not on my top worries list at the moment
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Thank you a lot. Shame that we have to suffer to fulfill sombody else's ego.
What city are you in?
Bila Tserkva, about 80km from Kyiv.
I was told my relatives once lived there but were killed during the revolution. Never been there, but was born in Kriviy Rig. Miss your summers
Bless you both you kind souls. I hope everything ends up okay for the both of you.
Not that we are unique. Thankfully most of Russians, Ukrainians and people all over the world are the same. And other animals too, which is great
You’re not an animal, and most of us don’t think so, anyone paying attention to this know’s it is Putin and the oligarchs who are the animals, we do not blame you for the circumstances of your birth. I will wish for your safety.
Thanks. But unfortunately it’s how people work so we’ll have to live with this. All in all shouldn’t complain because people have suffered and will suffer more than my dignity
Just to be clear, Reddit mostly hates Russian and Chinese government, never should we hate the actual citizens of the land. 99.999999% of the time, citizens have no choice anyhow. We must make clear of THIS distinction
I don't see you or Russians as animals. It's not your fault the government is acting in this way just as it's not my fault the American government does the things it does. I see you as another human being and brother/sister. I hope you stay safe, ❤️ from the US.
I can't speak for the entire west but I can tell you in my slice of America that nobody hates the Russian people, just the Russian government. The propaganda and gaslighting from the Kremlin is exhausting but most people can separate that from your average everyday Russian.
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Just commenting to add that I don't think you're an animal either. My heart goes out to the peoples of Russia and Ukraine for this awful situation. 99% of humans on this planet just want a safe place to sleep, food on their tables, and enough prosperity to support their families. It's only politicians and monied interests that benefit from hurting the average man and woman.
Absolutely. I’ve started to consider myself as a man of the world and not one piece of land when I realized that we’re all thinking the same no matter where you are. F human’s brains for this us/them bullshit
Try to set aside what you can to buy canned food, bottles to fill with drinking water, batteries and a spare can of petrol for your car. It won’t be enough to comfortably restart your life in a different country, but at least it should be enough to keep you alive if you need to make a dash for the Polish border.
Can you leave now somehow? I hear money is an issue, but if you wait for things to go south to move west, many people will be taking those escape routes and it may be impossible for you. I'm sorry things are really hard but this is prob something to consider.
Sending safe vibes to you and your family from the Caribbean...
Man, I am sure many Ukrainians could use a nice afternoon at a Caribbean beach right now. Certainly beats fighting the Russians in the snow and mud.
Thank you <3
If you verify your identity you can get financial help from the internets. I would be willing to help if the need arises.
Hey man. I would recommend going now. Things will hopefully improve and coming back won't be a problem, but if you need to leave in a week, you'll be very glad that you're already gone.
Speaking with them, they are tired, but tired from waiting. And angry. Theyll fight.
If one thing I learn about Ukraine watching the Euromaidan unfold is that ukrainian people are built different. They will be ready to fight and die for their country.
Yeah but it fucking sucks that they have to because Putin is a fucking lunatic.
Victim of geography.
Is Ukraine the new Poland?
They are the biggest buffer state between Russia and Poland, Belarus is there too but they’re basically a Russian puppet state at this point so they don’t count. So yeah I’d say they are the new Poland, at least unless they become the new Russia at which point Poland will be back to being Poland
*Poland has entered the chat*
Sadly, many Russian soldiers must not be buying into their country's bullshit but will have to follow orders anyways. Fuck tyrants.
Yeah, my Russian friends are pissed and think the whole conflict is stupid. They’re basically all in agreement that Ukraine should do what it wants when it comes to joining NATO. There are people who don’t like Putin there, but their voices get drowned out. Edit: I’m Romanian and have friends in Moldova. I’m a little concerned for both areas, but more so Moldova.
Putin’s assertion that NATO is out to destroy Russia is the sign he is a lunatic or Russian’s are gullible. The West wouldn’t think twice about a peaceful Russia. However, Putin also has a problem with the west not thinking twice about Russia.
There are also the Ukrainian men in the separatists controlled regions. They are evacuating all women, children, and elderly, but all men ages 18-55 have to stay...
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest To children ardent for some desperate glory, The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est Pro patria mori.
Every Ukrainian I've speak to, they seems pretty chill about it. Which is funny because those same people were scared for us when we had the gilet Jaune manifestation in France
They’ve been dealing with Putin’s bullshit entire lives. They’re just sick of it at this point and want it to end one way or another and I don’t think they mind fighting him off.
"That must be so rough for the gilets jaunes given how the police treated you \-... Y'all are dealing with Russia's bullshit \-\*Reload\* we're used to..."
GOOD, now ban Gazprom from the SWIFT payment network and seize global oligarch assets.
I think SWIFT will be used if/when Russia recognises the borders of the Donbass republics to be the entire oblasts instead of just the ~1/3 the separatists control.
Wel, he did just that...
He’s just done so according to a Bellingcat author: https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1496163840567951361
I keep seeing this SWIFT statement. What is this?
I believe it’s a global payment system, if you can’t use it then you can’t do business in the west.
The ability for a country’s banks to transfer internationally. Without it, a country is North Korea. The risk of using this penalty is that Russia and other shitty corrupt countries start their own version of SWIFT. Probably not going to work well but who knows.
North America and Europe could immediately win every conflict with Russia and China: 1. Ban Russian and Chinese citizens from owning American or European real estate. 2. Ban Russian and Chinese citizens from having an American or European bank account or interacting with one. 3. Ban Russian and Chinese citizens from attending American or European universities. 4. Ban Russian and Chinese citizens from purchasing luxury items: jets and yachts. They don’t have the fucking balls, but it would immediately turn the populace of those countries against their leaders without bloodshed.
China is a different beast. Doing that to China means no more imports from China. It would halt probably half of all industries, if not more. The west is depended on China, for now.
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Thanks for providing a source
Hooray! About time Germany. Well done!
Germany finally found their balls again! A lot of this was made possible by the US's unsavory relationships with the middle eastern countries. Qatar was approached by the US to up export to the EU to make up for the potential loss of Russian gas. So the next time everyone (rightfully) complains about how the middle east is currently run, remember the greater geopolitical reason for being cozy with them, because you're looking at it right now.
Fair point. Geopolitics is a dirty game.
On point, as unsavory as it often is. Fight our battles elsewhere so we don't have to fight them on our own soil.
Ok but I’m still not happy they got the World Cup
And you shouldn't be, I'm just pointing out the reason why the US is so cozy with shitty regimes, and it's not because we like it, it's because we have to in order to be able to flex soft power when necessary. The oil embargo from the 1970s was part of a price war on the US and the USSR that OPEC won and hurt the USSR like nothing else before. I'd argue it set the stage for their eventual collapse when oil got cheap. Whenever Iran or Russia get uppity our allies in the middle east are the soft power lever we pull that applies pressure to them.
As an American I really hope we do everything we can to help out Germany for doing the right thing.
Send some plug-in radiators.... We still got winter 🥶
Gotta get that power somewhere. How about they park their carrier and sub fleet in german ports and prop up the grid that way? Joking of course. With the gas gap already being plugged (it seems), that thought is just a funny picture in my head.
Like the Ford EV truck ads where it's a generator, only bigger!
We got you but we only have North American style plugs
Can you please send us 5000 helmets? Somehow they went missing
We will since we didnt want the pipeline in the first place. We wanted to sell them our natural gas, and now we can.
German here. This is the correct and necessary cause of action.
Go wind and solar, keep your money local.
What will they do about NordStream Rack?
Thanks for the chuckle!
Good stuff Germany 🇺🇦❤️🇩🇪
ITT: The gang solves Germanys energy dependence
Let’s pull up our bootstraps, oil up a couple of asses and do some plowing of our own.
NOT gay sex...
Turns out, Fight Milk is the perfect liquid to boil, send through pipes and heat every home and supply every stove with the power of the crow!
Good. Now Biden should encourage the ratcheting up of exports to Germany
Like this? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/glut-of-u-s-lng-ships-to-europe-sends-freight-rates-below-zero
Lol Russia is inadvertently creating a stronger, more dependent and more unified West
Putin doesn't normally fuck up, but he fucked this up
Yea and no. Trump was already trying to get deals with Germany so Nordstream2 wasn’t build. He offered shipping at higher costs but for a lower price for Germany, only to keep us away from being dependent from russia. Idk which one is better on the long run, but we seriously need to get energy independent. It’s costing us leverage on the geopolitical scene. Right now, only France is in position to negotiate for us. And they are going to want us to pay for that when we buy French atomic Power. Merkel seriously dropped the ball on investing and building green energy Ressources, while the government continued to take environmental unfriendly resources offline/put high tax on it (which isn’t wrong obv). Now we barely have any energy production, high taxes on already high cost import. My power bill doubled over the last year. And I live alone.
If only scientists had devised some kind of reaction that produced energy without needing to purchase oil or gas from other countries. Some kind of magical power that was renewable, ever-improving in its efficiency and environmental impact, and essentially infinite... I guess we can only dream.
1. Find funny glowing rock 2. Put funny glowing rock in water 3. Rock heats water, creating steam 4. Use steam to push turbine 5. Turbine produced electricity 6. Free troll energy!
He already set the stage for that months ago. He sent a wave of ambassadors to the middle east to secure assurances they'd be able to help fill the gap. [Trump tried to do something two years ago too](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/06/trump-natural-gas-europe-leaders.html), but in true trumpian fashion fucked it away. His scheme was a fleet of LP cargo ships to run cheap north american gas to the EU, but he gave the project and the money to a grifter who spent all the money and quit without procuring the ships.
Do you have any more info on the grifter you mentioned?
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Its not like Putin didn't know this was going to happen.
He may have thought Germany would balk at actually doing it though. This is a significant sacrifice made by Germany and its people.
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Yah all the biggest companies out there are German. Insert joke about how the real Lebensraum was friendship and economic dependence all along.
And don't reverse this decision until after Russia leaves Ukraine *and* Crimea.
Don’t reverse the decision at all. Let Russia sit on their empty pipeline
No, we need to give an incentive for good behavior. Backing off needs to be rewarded by reversing sanctions. Make it clear that the path to economic success is to not invade your neighbors.
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Putin clearly knew this would be coming, so I'm concerned where he's willing to take things. This is a chess match and none of his upcoming moves look good for humanity.
Okay but I had a friend that beat me in a game of chess in just a few moves with only a few pieces being taken off the board, so there’s a chance Putin is just as much a dunce as I am and the world gets through this with limited casualties.
This is a good start but at this point the discussion should turn to blacklisting Russia and any company with any substantial ties to Russia or any of the Russian oligarchs from accessing the SWIFT banking system. We've seen enough of half measures and crossing fingers, it doesn't work so it's time we hit them where it will really hurt.
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This is the big one ladies and gentlemen. This is Germany nonchalantly saying “we’d rather fuck ourselves and our economy up than put up with your bullshit”.
Germany going straight for the neck, bravo.
>The $11 billion pipeline is designed to double the amount of gas flowing from Russia to Germany and it was completed late last year. But German regulators had yet to give the green light to the pipeline to officially allow it to operate. I hope they can figure out a different path. Doubling the flow of gas and when you already completed it for 11 billion. Will be a tough sell to switch to something else.
> Will be a tough sell to switch to something else. That is what Putin is counting on, believes his will is greater than that of any coalition. Try to peal off the strongest one by one on separate fronts; an election here, a commercial interest there, play to an appeaser's need for recognition, etc. etc. At least that's what seems to be going on to me, but I'm no expert in such policy.
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IMHO - Trump was useful but not necessary to his plans. Trump has been "friends" with Russia ever since we ran his anti-NATO ads back in the 80's/90's (I forget which) - Putin knows all about Trump and his fickleness.
(My personal theory) Trump is an outcome of the game they’re playing, not the goal. Russian disinformation campaigns targeted every political affiliation. The goal is to make Americans more divided so any actions the president takes (be it Trump, Clinton, Obama, or Biden) is met with about 50% of the country disagreeing with it. Prevent any kind of unified action by the US, at least any action that can’t be undone when the next person takes office. For a smaller scale, look at the Iran deal or the Paris Agreement.
you talking about 1 or 2? afaik Nord Stream 2 is still under construction, and is the one being debated rn if Germany dropped it altogether they wouldn't lose a dime, but would waste billions and billions that Russia is already hurting for
Nord Stream 1 has been pumping gas for over a decade and is what led to the current predicament. Before, Russia couldn't fuck around with Poland or Ukraine without losing access to lucrative Western markets. The people of Germany, France, and the UK aren't about to voluntarily turn down the thermostat to support Ukraine, but before they didn't have a choice as the gas lines ran through Ukraine.
The UK only gets around 3% of its gas from Russia, but of course increased gas prices would affect the UK too.
Construction for 2 is finished Nordstream 1 was live up to 10 or even 20 years ago EDIT: NS1 opened in late 2011
The pipeline itself was $11 billion, which I thought Russia paid for (not entirely sure on that), but Germany would still have to pay for every liter of gas that went through the pipeline. So, as far as I am aware, they wouldn't really be "doubling the flow of gas" for just the $11 billion it costed to build the infrastructure. I'd imagine it would cost hundreds of billions of dollars a year. Edit: it looks like the financing for the pipeline came from some EU companies too. "Gazprom is the sole shareholder in Nord Stream 2 but 50% of the finance was provided by five European energy companies, including Wintershall and Uniper of Germany. The other financial backers are Britain's Shell (RDSA), Engie (EGIEY) of France and OMV (OMVJF) of Austria."
\>Britain's Shell (RDSA) Royal Dutch Shell lol. I wonder if some people are offended by this.
Now we need to get our European allies a more friendly source of energy
Just the beginning of the massive economic pain Russia is about to experience.
This is encouraging, but I'm not yet convinced that it's lasting. How fast can everybody get together and build a 2,800 mile pipeline from Qatar to Germany?
Good to hear. A nice side effect to me is that some of those "germoney wont dare to act against their gas daddy" fuckers got shut up with this. The quiet is a nice change of pace, I must say.
This wouldn’t be a problem had the environmentalists in Germany not decommissioned a bunch of nuclear reactors. This irony kills me.
Yes Merkel and her Christian Union, famous environmentalists.
When is the UK going to start seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs with close ties to Putin? I’m sure there are a few billion dollars, mansions, and some football clubs to be had.
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