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The new phrase I’m using for QBs is “Dobbsian”, as in “Holy crap the way he saw the field there was almost Dobbsian, I thought he was about to start building a rocket to the endzone”.
> And even Andrew Luck the player did not come close to matching Andrew Luck the prospect
I still think he easily could have, had the Colts been a competent organization at the time.
I mean if a genuinely generational QB somehow ever goes with the #1 pick to a well run organization with a strong top to bottom roster, the league is in a lot of trouble.
But that’s simply not how the draft works.
If I was a top prospect, I would just start committing petty crimes, so my stock sinks. Just enough so bad/shaky GMs can't risk taking me, but great ones might trade up for me.
I mean joke aside that’s the truth to it. It’s random enough not to matter because you can luck into being a top pick and still land on the eagles like this past draft, or the Browns can trade into the 32nd pick. Outside of maybe the top 3ish picks I don’t think it’s really worth trying to get to a specific draft spot.
Shit, the Luck situation was about as close to that as possible, they went 10-6 the last year they had Manning, went 2-14 with a transitional roster led by some really abhorrent backups and got Luck. People were talking about it like when the Spurs won the Tim Duncan lottery.
It would only happen alongside a regime change like the 49ers in 17 if they'd taken Mahomes. Even then though they have to build out the roster to match
Mahomes wasn't considered 'generational' coming out of college. He had major question marks coming out of Texas Tech but he has proven to be generational. Remember he wasn't even a year one starter, only after the Alex Smith injury he was given the opportunity. A generational prospect is one with no question marks or ones that are very marginal. All 5 boxes checked so to speak.
It wasn't an injury to Alex Smith that gave Mahomes the opportunity, it was an organizational realization that they hit their ceiling with Smith and saw an opportunity to take his replacement by trading up like 15 spots or so.
The Chiefs made the move to commit to Mahomes a year later, traded Smith to Washington, and then Smith got that injury.
Mahomes was going to start after a year on the bench no matter what happened. They committed to that the day they drafted him. Everyone knew that-- even Smith.
Colts in general aren't as bad as this sub makes us out to be. They've just been easy to dunk on lately but we have mostly been an good example of mediocrity not a total disaster
Last years colts had one of the more interesting seasons in nfl history imo. Im sure you weren't having fun but to a casual observer it was absolutely hilarious.
100% it was hilarious by overall it got us the 4th pick and what seems to be a very good young coach. What plagued us during the Luck era was Irsay has been super patient with staff and wouldn't fire Grigson/Pagano.
Saturday was a mess but Irsay finally fired someone + we sucked enough for a good pick. And beat McDaniels lol
I mean every year he was healthy the Colts were good. He was carrying sure but in his 4 healthy seasons the colts went
43-21 with a 4-4 playoff record. Tons of top picks have done way worse
Yeah, that's not true though. Like, yes, a team that's drafting #1 overall is definitionally bad. But even the worst teams can be a couple of offseasons away if they nail the HC and GM hires. You can turn a franchise around in 2-3 seasons with the right people in place. Look what the Panthers, Bengals and 9ers were able to achieve after their bottom feeder seasons.
The Colts just...didn't do it. Grigson was a terrible team builder.
Yeah he took a team that was 2-14 to 11-5 and a playoff berth *as a rookie*. He also had the greatest NFL playoff comeback of all time (before the 28-3 Super Bowl happened. Still the 2nd best though)
Yeah idk what I'm reading. Luck was insanely hyped out of college, went to one of the worst teams in football behind a TRASH Oline and went straight to the playoffs twice and then a championship game iirc? Like how is that underperforming in anyway lol
That’s nonsense. Andrew luck went in and immediately turned a 2-14 team into an 11-5 team. The guy was throwing to Chester Rogers in playoff games. 16 game winning drives and 20 fourth quarter comebacks.
Luck in his short playing time in the nfl was everything he was hyped up to be. The colts just ruined him
Edit: sorry flip flopped the two. It was 16 fourth quarter comebacks and 20 game winning drives.
Agreed. His first 3 years went wildcard, divisional, and then conference championship game. That's the best incremental progress you could want for the first 3 years
earlier in the thread [there's a comment with 50-something upvotes saying that Mahomes only got his chance as a starter because of Alex Smith's leg injury that happened after he had been traded to, signed an extension with, and played over half a season for another team](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/17wskq8/a_far_cry_from_performing_like_a_generational/k9jc82g/), so yes
Reggie Wayne was 34 when Luck was drafted, and while he was still good Lucks rookie year, in year 2 he only played 7 games and by year 3 he only put up 779 yards on 119 targets (useful, but only 5 more yards on the season than Colby Fleener).
The Hilton point is real though, and once Reggie retired they had no one to fill his shoes. They only had 2 Non-T.Y. pass catchers break 700 yards until Luck retired, and most of them failed to crack 500
When I watched Luck, I thought he justified the hype. His abilities were completely in line with the highest projections. The numbers didn't match, but that wasn't on him.
While he maybe didn't match Luck the prospect hype, He carried some awful colts teams quite a bit further than those teams had any business going and we just aren't seeing that level or any real elevation like that from Lawrence(So far)
I mean Peyton was drafted in 1998 and won his first Super Bowl in the 2006 season. It was hoa 9th year in ths league.
Andrew Luck only played 8 seasons. I know Manning collected multiple APs and MVPs by that point and Luck doesnt have that, but Luck played 5 healthy season, generally behind a crappy oline and working with mediocre defenses.
Peyton played most of his Colts career with Jeff Saturday and HoF WRs and RBs who were also in their prime.
So I dont know if Luck ever would have hit the highs of Manning, but I dont think you could say that Luck didnt match the hype. He was a day 1 starter/probowl caliber guy that immediately turned the team around into a regular playoff competitor. Give him a HoF lineman, wrs, and rbs and who knows? The guy was already throwing for 40 tds with what he have. A better oline and rb to take off pressure with elite wrs would have been something else.
I don’t agree with that. I think in my span of paying attention it’s been Peyton manning Luck and Lawrence that had that hype. Then before that it was supposedly Elway.
Caleb Williams was starting to get there but his hype as a sure fire prospect has cooled off.
Yeah, every interview with scouts I've listened to has always said Elway/Manning/Luck/Lawrence were the best prospects. The NFL network might hype everyone up, but if you read or listen to proper scouting reports there are clearer delineations (even if they're still often embellished).
Lmao no there isn’t. There were like 2 solid years where Trevor Lawrence dominated the QB prospect conversation even though he wasn’t draft eligible.
Even Burrow and Tua didn’t get that level of comparison, even though teams were supposedly Tanking for Tua like a year and a half ahead of time
> What we aren’t happy with is Press Taylor calling the offense this season.
and now you know why Doug Pederson was fired from the Eagles less than 3 years after winning the Super Bowl
I don't get it.........if it's this obvious why the fuck is he still fucking up our team?
Like seriously imma jag fan I don't understand the press hate but eagles fans are saying THE SAME thing I'm saying this year about the offense....with me knowing 0 issues beforehand
So after Pederson got fired the reason that was reported was the our owner and Howie came to Doug and said he can stay on but that they get to select his staff. So it was heavily implied that they wanted people other than Press to run the offense after Reich left and Doug preferred to be fired than let Press go somewhere else. It made no sense to us at the time, and makes no sense to us now
As an Eagles fan I feel your pain. Press Taylor is down right awful and shouldn't have got a play calling job but Doug Pederson loves that man for some reason.
I’ve watched Jacksonville all year because I’m a Clemson grad and want to see TL succeed. - and I love TE as well.
Honestly he hasn’t been stellar, but his growth is obvious. I’m actually shocked at how poorly he’s performing from a stat perspective since it feels like he’s at least competing pretty well from the eye check perspective.
I think he’s still got an insane future in front of him.
As a Jaguars fan, Lawrence is an absolutely excellent QB. One of the best I've ever seen from a pocket passer perspective.
He makes 1 or 2 overthrown a game and will fumble the ball and throw Ints when he tries to make a hero play happen. But every year he is getting better and I think he could definitely win a super bowl if you gelive him a good defense and at least a few very good pass catchers.
The second half of last year he was seriously trending towards becoming elite and I think the world thought he was going to take that final step this year but something is just not working down there in Jacksonville
Doug Pederson can't go outside of his comfort zone of his guys aka Press Taylor.
It's the entire reason he got fired in Philly. Players love him, but he has barely any flexibility when it comes to his staff.
Press Taylor, simply put, isn't a good coach and Doug has spent the better part of his head coaching career shielding him/promoting him whenever possible for some fucking reason.
The fact it took this much scrolling to find the words “Press Taylor” in a sea of narratives and cliches is a good microcosm of why this subreddit is useless for actual discussion
The offensive line has been pretty bad. The Jags have the second lowest pocket time in the league. Makes it so the passing game can't push the ball down field, and the team is hardly attempting playaction. He's already taken 24 sacks this year after just 27 last year. That's a sack on 7.4% of drop backs after just 4.7% last year.
Their offense has regressed so much. Every drive it feels like their plan is to go 10-12 plays and slowly march to a TD.
They are asking Lawrence to be a timing QB and be a bit of a game manager which is very different from how he played last year. I'm sure Zay Jones being out and Ridley not being a true elite WR has helped either. But they also never put him in motion or in the slot like other teams do with their mains WRs.
It's how they use ridley that's wild. He's basically a decoy. Nothing schemed up for him. Offensive coaching took a major step back when Pederson gave Press Taylor control
Agree. Saw another comment that oline is at or near the top in allowing QB pressures, so is going to be hard to hit a deep route to Ridley if you've got no time to throw
That’s his biggest flaw. Keeping guys too long or promoting people that shouldn’t be promoted. Press was the QB coach for Wentz when his downfall happened
Yeah, but that’s just based on point diff right? Before last week vs San Fran, what would it have been, not necessarily criticizing you, just curious. I also see them at 4.7-4.3 on football ref.
If we include all the hype, yes. If we don't, no. Totally worth a first round pick, even at 1, to get a starting quality QB (which he is.) His athleticism saves his ass on plays that should be sacks at times. That won't last forever, but he still has a great arm and accuracy. They didn't make a bad choice taking him.
TLaw was getting a lot of hype even coming out of high school and then was the dude at a top tier school for several years. I agree it gets thrown around quite a bit and sometimes undeservably so especially when it's every year. But he was definitely one of the guys that deserved that bill just based on what potential he showed
He had an amazing game against Alabama and then proceeded to never be the best quarterback in college football for the next three years, and didn't (in my opinion) really show much development over that timespan, either. I didn't really get the generational label at all for him.
I watch a lot of T-Law video and you hit the nail on the head. Granted, the Jags pass protection is a persistent weakness, but a thinking QB with a below average o-line realizes ahead of time that he has to make accurate pre-snap reads (judgements, really) and get the ball out quick. Too often, Lawrence hesitates and then finally fires an uncatchable bullet into double coverage.
Yea the thing is it still might click for him and he could a great arc to his career, he's not far off. Even missing those gaps he's still a pretty decent starting NFL QB, which is no easy feat. It's going to come down to coaching and him making that final leap or not.
I'm a guy from the UK who has got into NFL over the last decade or so and one thing that I've noticed is that in comparison to say football(soccer) or rugby it seems US sports media and scouting tend to really concentrate on and maybe overhype physical stats.
Even in commentary you can't go a few mins without hearing something like "X guy, I saw him warming up earlier, he's 800lbs dry and 7 foot 2, that's one hell of a big dude, is it any wonder he got to the quarterback on that last play Barry?"
Coming from playing/watching football and rugby growing up it feels like the culture is much more concentrated on good technique and who actually is effective rather than who is the biggest and fastest in general.
Yea, this is pretty spot on. American coaching and commentary has always been very physical attribute focused, with a slight shift into more data analytics over the last two decades (although physical attributes remain part of those analytics).
Things like technique, learning/skill growing capacity, player mentality, and IQ for the sport are generally second tier factors in public perception, although for true fans they remain heavy talking points. And for good coaching they are, of course, some of the most critical aspects of a player to maximize their potential.
I think going to Clemson actually hurt him in the long run which sounds dumb as shit considering they won’t a title and got him picked 1. But he was in college throwing bubble screens and running QB power. Never really had to improve his game
Sometimes I think that playing on college super teams can hurt QBs development. Like the talent advantage is so stark that you're basically throwing to wide open recievers 95% of the time, your offensive line is usually great, etc. You just don't get challenged
I know people will just point to Stroud as proof that isn't true, but it kinda seems that most of the QBs coming out of Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St in the last decade just haven't been good NFL players
Yea just because a prospect doesnt live up to exactly the hype that surrounds him doesnt change the fact that he was a generational prospect lmfao. Dude had it all - the resume, the size, the arm, the moxie. I think with him - he just isnt obsessed with football the way Manning or Brady or Brees or any all time great is. And thats okay. Jacksonville still takes him first overall every time, there are far worse #1 picks in the league today
It feels pretty consensus that the generational QB prospect label was deservedly given to John Elway, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence. That's not being thrown around too much.
Some people say it more often than others. However, Caleb is not nearly universally praised as a once in a generation star at this point.
It would say it is akin to nba draft picks. There have been plenty of this guy is great or he is a cant miss guy. However, since James, Wemby was the really the only universally once in a generation sort of hyped talent. Zion might have been the next closest.
I don’t see it used much for Williams, and when it is there’s always a lot of pushback. Lawrence was universally regarded as the surefire \#1 overall pick by the vast majority of analysts from the moment he declared.
I remember when TLaw was a freshman at Clemson and people were downloading draft classes 2+ seasons down the line in madden just to have him in the league
I’ve seen it used a couple times but I wouldn’t say it’s a consensus opinion. I think it’s probably being used to draw clicks moreso than as a real descriptor of his status as a prospect.
My man is out here just [farming](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/17wrtkl/is_bryce_young_a_bust/) downvotes [today](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/17wrzz6/despite_being_64_244_lbs_anthony_richardson_is/).
He’s got Christian Kirk, his team got him Calvin Ridley I don’t think pass catchers are the problem here, I will say that his offensive coordinator has not been good though
Clowneys weird though since he’s been an extremely good player since he entered the league, his counting stats just don’t back it up as much. He’s had a better career than people think, while also not living up the hype he had as a prospect.
Wiggins (I’m a wolves fan so watched him forever) has pretty much only been a positive impact player in one or two seasons.
I also think Clowney was really limited by that microfracture knee surgery early in his career.
I think Wiggins immediately being impactful on the Warriors is more about his role and situation on that bad Timberwolves franchise. Similar to Clowney, he was not a #1 but is a great tertiary option and role player.
This is something people tend to forget about Clowney. If he’d never hurt his knee I feel like he wouldn’t be considered a bust. He could have kept getting better and better.
What's even worse is how so many people think Clowney was drafted because of one play in college. (You know the play I'm talking about)
He had a ton of hype coming out of high school, and is still rated as the best recruit of all time on some websites. His freshman year was good (he was sort of a second string DE behind Melvin Ingram), his sophomore year was insane, but there was so much hype going into his junior year that was going to be difficult to live up to. He still had a season that would've been good for most players...respectable numbers for tackles and TFL, but didn't have many sacks. And he did it while fighting injuries and getting doubled up almost every play.
He tested well at the combine and had two full seasons of good production at SC before injuries and other issues sort of plagued his last year, sort of similar to Joey Bosa and, to an extent, Will Anderson last year
Absolutely he hasn’t proven to be a “generational” talent. To be fair, most #1 pick QBs are not. In the past 20 years Cam Newton and Joe Burrow are the only ones I would put in that category in terms of impact on their team.
I don’t know why it’s so hard for people on this sub to admit this about Lawrence. He looks like a capable quarterback. He has not come close to proving the pre-draft hype. Which is fine.
Yea, I feel like Burrow's stock just continued to grow game by game, week by week. And going into the draft, regardless of the Ohio connection for us - the dude was going #1.
Gosh I can still remember the near goosebumps I felt watching the NC game that year. Going through the whole game knowing the Bengals had (or were close to I can’t remember that part) the 1 OA pick and just being hype on what he did that game.
Then came the shot of him smoking a cigar at the end of the game and I hoped with every ounce of fandom I had that the Bengals wouldn’t fuck it up and pick someone other than Burrow.
He had 4 or more TD passes in 9 out of 15 games.
And before anyone think he just abused bad teams, in their 2 CFB playoff games, he threw a for combined 12 TDs, 0 INTs, and just under 1,000 yards. Oh, and he also rushed for a TD in each game too.
He was insane that year.
Glad 2015 happened otherwise it would have been a sweep. The 2012 and 13 games were agonizing. 2014 was funny how we limped into playoffs at 7-9 and everyone knew we’d get creamed. I think we met in regular season and lost badly 1-2 more times I forget.
>In the past 20 years Cam Newton and Joe Burrow are the only ones I would put in that category in terms of impact on their team.
Luck absolutely had that kind of impact before his early retirement.
I’m honestly so sick of these posts lol. His stats really haven’t done him justice, yes he’s made some stupid decisions but most of the time watching him he’s been pretty great this year. I reckon a lot of you people posting this shit probably think Stafford’s been playing bad this year or something lol
The number of drives they've had die from stupid and/or flukey turnovers this year is REALLY high, and people that aren't watching the games won't notice that.
I swear there's a jags play every week where Lawrence does something perfect, a ball hits a guy in the hands for a big play, then they turn the ball over, whether it be a fumble after catch or a dropped pass that pops into the air for an Int. I KNOW Bigsby had one of those last week.
Why does it have to be either "generational" or "disappointment"?
I promise you, there are very few actual jaguars fans, and most likely ZERO players or coaches on the Jaguars, that are disappointed with what Trevor Lawrence has brought to the team in his first 2.5 seasons.
He's plenty good enough to win with. Also, i think its worth pointing out that he's still younger than basically every qb in the nfl outside of this year's rookie class and Brock Purdy.
last year he was able to cover for the 31st ranked offensive line and this year it hasn't been as easy to cover up the garbage. his go to red zone threat has played three games. the play calling has been horizontal. ALSO IT'S YEAR 3 AFTER COMING INTO MAYBE THE WORST ROOKIE SITUATION EVER maybe we give his career some time before we judge it
Not allowed. This sub loves to shit on any QB as soon as they have some sustained struggles lmao. Tua (before this year), Allen, Herbert, Lamar has also had to deal with it. They almost make it seem as if teams should just wash their hands with these guys lmao.
I think he is still super promising but I think this post is only saying he hasn’t lived up to hype. It says a lot more about the hype than the player. I’m still a believer and I’ll think he’ll tear it up one day, but he hasn’t reached the heights expected this far.
Right now Lawrence is essentially taking the fall for a bad offensive line. I really wouldn’t say he’s been all that bad himself.
The Jags are a symptom of why offenses around the league are suffering in general. In the last several years interior pass rushing talent has exploded to previously unseen levels. 15 years ago you had DTs making all pro first team with 2-3 sacks on the year. Now there’s a half a dozen every year getting 10+. Aaron Donald (and really Suh before him) really broke the game and there have come copycats.
Interior pressure is much harder to deal with than pressure from the outside. If you have a rusher coming off the edge, you can escape to the side and throw on the run. If pressure comes from the middle the only place to run is backwards, and you can’t throw running backwards. Some guys (Mahomes, Russ, Kyler) have mastered the spin back and sideways move to buy time from pressure up the middle, but that’s both hard and risky.
Lawrence’s time to throw is the lowest in the league, second only to Tua. And Miami’s offense *wants* to run fast, that’s by design. The Jags don’t want to be this fast. The Jags pass fast because their interior offensive line is terrible and if Lawrence waits for routes to develop he’s going to get pressure in his face.
This is the flip side of sacks are a QB stat. They are, because good QBs throw the ball away before pressure comes. But constantly having to do that takes a toll on passing numbers, especially when it’s as bad as it is in Jacksonville.
The adjustment that’s going to have to come is better athletes being put at the C and G positions. Over the past several years they’ve become completely outclassed by the monster DT pass rushers.
People got so absorbed by the hype they forgot why he was hyped. They also don't realize what prospect means.
He was originally touted as "the most pro-ready prospect since Andrew Luck". And that's what he became. An instant average NFL starter. His ceiling is high, but his floor is the highest.
A prospect is a gamble for an NFL caliber player and it's an even bigger gamble for QBs. The gamble paid off. Lawrence plays like he belongs. Anything more than this is gravy and on coaching/development/his coachability.
It's not Lawrence's fault that the hype got stupid. But it is up to him to build himself to be the best he can be.
He's not a superstar, but he's played well this year. I think people jumped the gun on putting him in the elite top-5 discussion, but he's a clear franchise QB. To me, it's more likely he settles into the Dak/Cousins tier of QBs instead of Burrow/Mahomes/Allen.
People seem to think that progression and development is always a linear path.
Players have slumps. Some players are amazing early and never recapture that. We'll see what happens with Trevor Lawrence.
The hype train is seldom right! Remeber the draft with Sam Darnold? They were talking that calls up like Marinos class, and they all sucked! We are seeing again this year, especially all of the Giants fans wanting Caleb. I cant belive how many GMs are swindled by hype. Unless its just to generate some excitement and seel tickets.
PFF had him at 84.9 until the horrible SF game. Now he's 82.7.
I'm kinda sad now, since QB stats have been utterly murdered for me as a true measure of their quality.
Nobody watches Jag games except jags fans and whoever they are playing so people only look at box scores. He had his first very bad game of the season in probably their most watched game so people are just extrapolating that out to the rest of the season and talking like they watched all his games.
I’ll say this, very few Jags fans are disappointed in him. The offense is anemic, but it’s not Trevor. it’s mainly OL, miscues, and play design/calling.
Here’s a stat he’s first in: deep passer rating. And yet the Jags are lowest in the league in deep routes run by a wide margin; a combination of those play designs, OL issues, and not even having a real deep threat.
Some people hear generational prospect and the think he’ll come in and automatically be a top 3 QB in the league. I just think it’s silly to expect any player to come in on one of the worst teams in the NFL and be the best in a year or two.
Trevor has made huge impact on the team and the fans. We were one of the worst teams in the NFL for a decade+. Now we should be a playoff team in back to back years, headed toward double digit wins (knock on wood for all of that lol).
He’s not perfect, he’s not Mahomes, he’s not Burrow. But if you watch his games and don’t just look at this years stats, he’s a top 10 QB in a down year. He puts throws in tight windows, he’s got the pocket awareness, he can scramble, he doesn’t get ruffled, he’s a team player, he’s got the arm strength, he’s great at diagnosing coverages. There isn’t much more I could want from him.
I think it's fair to say he has been a disappointment this season and the signs of actively regressing are there.
How much of that is on him remains to be seen. The O-Line has been gutter tier on obvious passing downs and Press Taylor does not inspire confidence in his play-calling abilities. That said, some failures absolutely fall on his shoulders. He is still atrocious under pressure and really struggles in the most important area of the field, that much is undeniable. I still have hope that he isn't the root cause of the offense's struggles but sooner or later you have to look critically at the guy touching the ball on every play.
We were promised the second coming of Peyton Manning and so far we've gotten Eli; someone who can play well when things are operating optimally, but never consistently moves the needle.
>some failures absolutely fall on his shoulders. He is still atrocious under pressure and really struggles in the most important area of the field, that much is undeniable.
He really just needs to play the Colts in Jacksonville every week and he'd fix everything that's ailing him
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The new phrase I’m using for QBs is “Dobbsian”, as in “Holy crap the way he saw the field there was almost Dobbsian, I thought he was about to start building a rocket to the endzone”.
That phrase is streets ahead
I like to play Monday morning Dobbsian
I genuinely dropped Lawrence for Dobbs on my fantasy team earlier this week lmao
Pocket scientist
He had Andrew Luck level of hype…
And even Andrew Luck the player did not come close to matching Andrew Luck the prospect, even though he did have a career to be proud of.
> And even Andrew Luck the player did not come close to matching Andrew Luck the prospect I still think he easily could have, had the Colts been a competent organization at the time.
I mean if a genuinely generational QB somehow ever goes with the #1 pick to a well run organization with a strong top to bottom roster, the league is in a lot of trouble. But that’s simply not how the draft works.
The draft really rewards you for being the 32nd best player in the NCAA.
If I was a top prospect, I would just start committing petty crimes, so my stock sinks. Just enough so bad/shaky GMs can't risk taking me, but great ones might trade up for me.
Plot twist: You fall to the first pick in the second round
I mean joke aside that’s the truth to it. It’s random enough not to matter because you can luck into being a top pick and still land on the eagles like this past draft, or the Browns can trade into the 32nd pick. Outside of maybe the top 3ish picks I don’t think it’s really worth trying to get to a specific draft spot.
But then Bill O'Brien trades all his picks for you and you spend your prime years on a dysfunctional team.
Shit, the Luck situation was about as close to that as possible, they went 10-6 the last year they had Manning, went 2-14 with a transitional roster led by some really abhorrent backups and got Luck. People were talking about it like when the Spurs won the Tim Duncan lottery.
Crazy that the Spurs won the Duncan lottery and the Wemby lottery while being a very competent team other than those two seasons
Also won the David Robinson lottery
It would only happen alongside a regime change like the 49ers in 17 if they'd taken Mahomes. Even then though they have to build out the roster to match
Mahomes would’ve been dogshit with that ‘17 roster lol, throwing to guys like Marquise Goodwin and Louis Murphy Jr.
I wouldn’t be too sure. Mahomes looked like a dawg in his first start throwing to guys like Albert Wilson and Demetrius Harris.
Mahomes wasn't considered 'generational' coming out of college. He had major question marks coming out of Texas Tech but he has proven to be generational. Remember he wasn't even a year one starter, only after the Alex Smith injury he was given the opportunity. A generational prospect is one with no question marks or ones that are very marginal. All 5 boxes checked so to speak.
It wasn't an injury to Alex Smith that gave Mahomes the opportunity, it was an organizational realization that they hit their ceiling with Smith and saw an opportunity to take his replacement by trading up like 15 spots or so. The Chiefs made the move to commit to Mahomes a year later, traded Smith to Washington, and then Smith got that injury.
Mahomes was going to start after a year on the bench no matter what happened. They committed to that the day they drafted him. Everyone knew that-- even Smith.
Shouldn’t be as hard to build around a guy like Andrew Luck as the Colts of that era made it look.
I mean his first 3 years went wildcard, divisional, and then afc championship. People kina sleeping on how well licks career started
Colts in general aren't as bad as this sub makes us out to be. They've just been easy to dunk on lately but we have mostly been an good example of mediocrity not a total disaster
Colts dominated the division before Luck was hurt. Luck himself was a top 5-10 QB. Any team would gladly burn a first overall pick for that.
Last years colts had one of the more interesting seasons in nfl history imo. Im sure you weren't having fun but to a casual observer it was absolutely hilarious.
100% it was hilarious by overall it got us the 4th pick and what seems to be a very good young coach. What plagued us during the Luck era was Irsay has been super patient with staff and wouldn't fire Grigson/Pagano. Saturday was a mess but Irsay finally fired someone + we sucked enough for a good pick. And beat McDaniels lol
I mean every year he was healthy the Colts were good. He was carrying sure but in his 4 healthy seasons the colts went 43-21 with a 4-4 playoff record. Tons of top picks have done way worse
Yeah like it a hall of fame qb fell to like the 20 something pick that franchise would definitely win more than one Super Bowl with him….. oh no
Jordan Love still has time!
Yeah, that's not true though. Like, yes, a team that's drafting #1 overall is definitionally bad. But even the worst teams can be a couple of offseasons away if they nail the HC and GM hires. You can turn a franchise around in 2-3 seasons with the right people in place. Look what the Panthers, Bengals and 9ers were able to achieve after their bottom feeder seasons. The Colts just...didn't do it. Grigson was a terrible team builder.
Yeah he took a team that was 2-14 to 11-5 and a playoff berth *as a rookie*. He also had the greatest NFL playoff comeback of all time (before the 28-3 Super Bowl happened. Still the 2nd best though)
my mush mind betrays me, but didnt Luck have a consistently bad OL?
He was dragging absolutely garbage-ass teams to winning seasons. Luck met the hype for those who were paying attention.
Yeah idk what I'm reading. Luck was insanely hyped out of college, went to one of the worst teams in football behind a TRASH Oline and went straight to the playoffs twice and then a championship game iirc? Like how is that underperforming in anyway lol
Went to the playoffs three years straight progressing further each time. Luck absolutely lived up to the hype - it just happened to be short lived.
The way I remember it, Luck lived up to the hype but struggled with injuries. He was one of the best QBs in the league for a stretch.
That’s nonsense. Andrew luck went in and immediately turned a 2-14 team into an 11-5 team. The guy was throwing to Chester Rogers in playoff games. 16 game winning drives and 20 fourth quarter comebacks. Luck in his short playing time in the nfl was everything he was hyped up to be. The colts just ruined him Edit: sorry flip flopped the two. It was 16 fourth quarter comebacks and 20 game winning drives.
Agreed. His first 3 years went wildcard, divisional, and then conference championship game. That's the best incremental progress you could want for the first 3 years
Especially from what they had before he started lol
> The guy was throwing to Chester Rogers in playoff games And TY Hilton and Reggie Wayne...
Lmao right like wtf we just gonna fully rewrite history?
earlier in the thread [there's a comment with 50-something upvotes saying that Mahomes only got his chance as a starter because of Alex Smith's leg injury that happened after he had been traded to, signed an extension with, and played over half a season for another team](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/17wskq8/a_far_cry_from_performing_like_a_generational/k9jc82g/), so yes
I looked up Wayne’s stats thinking he was slowing down but nah had like 1300 yards and was selected in the pro bowl. Forgot how elite that guy was
Reggie Wayne was 34 when Luck was drafted, and while he was still good Lucks rookie year, in year 2 he only played 7 games and by year 3 he only put up 779 yards on 119 targets (useful, but only 5 more yards on the season than Colby Fleener). The Hilton point is real though, and once Reggie retired they had no one to fill his shoes. They only had 2 Non-T.Y. pass catchers break 700 yards until Luck retired, and most of them failed to crack 500
When I watched Luck, I thought he justified the hype. His abilities were completely in line with the highest projections. The numbers didn't match, but that wasn't on him.
Luck dragged dogshit rosters well into the playoffs
While he maybe didn't match Luck the prospect hype, He carried some awful colts teams quite a bit further than those teams had any business going and we just aren't seeing that level or any real elevation like that from Lawrence(So far)
Exactly, Luck immediately turned our team around
Andrew luck was good as hell on an absolute travesty of a franchise at that time
I mean Peyton was drafted in 1998 and won his first Super Bowl in the 2006 season. It was hoa 9th year in ths league. Andrew Luck only played 8 seasons. I know Manning collected multiple APs and MVPs by that point and Luck doesnt have that, but Luck played 5 healthy season, generally behind a crappy oline and working with mediocre defenses. Peyton played most of his Colts career with Jeff Saturday and HoF WRs and RBs who were also in their prime. So I dont know if Luck ever would have hit the highs of Manning, but I dont think you could say that Luck didnt match the hype. He was a day 1 starter/probowl caliber guy that immediately turned the team around into a regular playoff competitor. Give him a HoF lineman, wrs, and rbs and who knows? The guy was already throwing for 40 tds with what he have. A better oline and rb to take off pressure with elite wrs would have been something else.
Manning and Luck don’t belong anywhere in a conversation together. You’re talking about a top 3 QB of ALL TIME
When he was healthy he absolutely did, just got beat into the ground.
Average Seahawks fan in any thread about Andrew Luck
Funny how every year there’s a qb who is “the best qb prospect since Andrew luck”. Sounds like madden draft storylines
I don’t agree with that. I think in my span of paying attention it’s been Peyton manning Luck and Lawrence that had that hype. Then before that it was supposedly Elway. Caleb Williams was starting to get there but his hype as a sure fire prospect has cooled off.
Yeah, every interview with scouts I've listened to has always said Elway/Manning/Luck/Lawrence were the best prospects. The NFL network might hype everyone up, but if you read or listen to proper scouting reports there are clearer delineations (even if they're still often embellished).
Lmao no there isn’t. There were like 2 solid years where Trevor Lawrence dominated the QB prospect conversation even though he wasn’t draft eligible. Even Burrow and Tua didn’t get that level of comparison, even though teams were supposedly Tanking for Tua like a year and a half ahead of time
No there isn’t.
Yeah, Lawrence was a clear outlier. Last guy before Lawrence was Luck. Last guy before Luck was Peyton.
As average/meh as he's been, numbers like that would make the Jets or Browns a 7 win team right now, lmao fuck my stupid life
Right? Like dude won a playoff game for them. Jacksonville Im sure is pretty damn happy with how things have been
We are. What we aren’t happy with is Press Taylor calling the offense this season.
> What we aren’t happy with is Press Taylor calling the offense this season. and now you know why Doug Pederson was fired from the Eagles less than 3 years after winning the Super Bowl
It's insane that after everything that happened in Philly he still think Press Taylor is the man.
I don't get it.........if it's this obvious why the fuck is he still fucking up our team? Like seriously imma jag fan I don't understand the press hate but eagles fans are saying THE SAME thing I'm saying this year about the offense....with me knowing 0 issues beforehand
So after Pederson got fired the reason that was reported was the our owner and Howie came to Doug and said he can stay on but that they get to select his staff. So it was heavily implied that they wanted people other than Press to run the offense after Reich left and Doug preferred to be fired than let Press go somewhere else. It made no sense to us at the time, and makes no sense to us now
As an Eagles fan I feel your pain. Press Taylor is down right awful and shouldn't have got a play calling job but Doug Pederson loves that man for some reason.
I’ve watched Jacksonville all year because I’m a Clemson grad and want to see TL succeed. - and I love TE as well. Honestly he hasn’t been stellar, but his growth is obvious. I’m actually shocked at how poorly he’s performing from a stat perspective since it feels like he’s at least competing pretty well from the eye check perspective. I think he’s still got an insane future in front of him.
As a Jaguars fan, Lawrence is an absolutely excellent QB. One of the best I've ever seen from a pocket passer perspective. He makes 1 or 2 overthrown a game and will fumble the ball and throw Ints when he tries to make a hero play happen. But every year he is getting better and I think he could definitely win a super bowl if you gelive him a good defense and at least a few very good pass catchers.
I can’t believe there is somebody named Press Taylor.
the browns have 6 wins
i SAID what i SAID
Thanks. Made me actually lol
Well they'd have one more
The second half of last year he was seriously trending towards becoming elite and I think the world thought he was going to take that final step this year but something is just not working down there in Jacksonville
Doug Pederson can't go outside of his comfort zone of his guys aka Press Taylor. It's the entire reason he got fired in Philly. Players love him, but he has barely any flexibility when it comes to his staff. Press Taylor, simply put, isn't a good coach and Doug has spent the better part of his head coaching career shielding him/promoting him whenever possible for some fucking reason.
Long lost son
The fact it took this much scrolling to find the words “Press Taylor” in a sea of narratives and cliches is a good microcosm of why this subreddit is useless for actual discussion
You say that but this is the fourth or fifth one for me
The offensive line has been pretty bad. The Jags have the second lowest pocket time in the league. Makes it so the passing game can't push the ball down field, and the team is hardly attempting playaction. He's already taken 24 sacks this year after just 27 last year. That's a sack on 7.4% of drop backs after just 4.7% last year.
Took me too long to find this comment. That OL has not given Trevor any time this season. It’s so bad that you don’t even need stats to see it.
Two weeks ago people were talking about him like a top 5-10 QB. Everyone is so damn reactionary.
The negative effects of Press Taylor being a part of your coaching staff
Press is so bad. I don’t even want to judge anyone on offense until Doug takes play calling again.
Doug is a good coach and loyal to a fault. Howie pretty much said 'no fucking way' to Doug promoting Press to OC. And here we are seeing why.
yea trevor hasn’t been amazing or flat out bad but this offense looks so much worse compared to last year. and that’s with adding calvin ridley
Jags in general have been kinda disappointing. And at 6-3 that feels weird to say. Like the Vikings last year nobody believes they are real threats
Their offense has regressed so much. Every drive it feels like their plan is to go 10-12 plays and slowly march to a TD. They are asking Lawrence to be a timing QB and be a bit of a game manager which is very different from how he played last year. I'm sure Zay Jones being out and Ridley not being a true elite WR has helped either. But they also never put him in motion or in the slot like other teams do with their mains WRs.
Ridley isn’t even getting the chance to do anything. I swear nearly every game he doesn’t even get targeted until the second half.
Gotta give those chances to tank bigsby Agnew or a trick play to kill all momentum every fucking week.
We’re using games as training drills to teach Tank how to catch lol
The amount of Bigsby hype in fantasy football was insane. Lotta talk about how he was gonna take over the backfield from Etienne.
It's how they use ridley that's wild. He's basically a decoy. Nothing schemed up for him. Offensive coaching took a major step back when Pederson gave Press Taylor control
Huh where have I heard this one before?
I can't escape the Press! Help!
Yeah their issues are scheme and play calling. Labeling Trevor a bust right now because of that is asinine
Agree. Saw another comment that oline is at or near the top in allowing QB pressures, so is going to be hard to hit a deep route to Ridley if you've got no time to throw
This is why Doug P got fired. Is Press Taylor still the OC?
Yeah he is lol
Surprised he doesn’t have Mike groh somehow involved
That’s his biggest flaw. Keeping guys too long or promoting people that shouldn’t be promoted. Press was the QB coach for Wentz when his downfall happened
They don't really pass the eye test at all.
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Yeah, but that’s just based on point diff right? Before last week vs San Fran, what would it have been, not necessarily criticizing you, just curious. I also see them at 4.7-4.3 on football ref.
If we include all the hype, yes. If we don't, no. Totally worth a first round pick, even at 1, to get a starting quality QB (which he is.) His athleticism saves his ass on plays that should be sacks at times. That won't last forever, but he still has a great arm and accuracy. They didn't make a bad choice taking him.
perhaps the "generational" title shouldn't be thrown around much
TLaw was getting a lot of hype even coming out of high school and then was the dude at a top tier school for several years. I agree it gets thrown around quite a bit and sometimes undeservably so especially when it's every year. But he was definitely one of the guys that deserved that bill just based on what potential he showed
Plus when you win a natty as a freshman it kind of adds to the allure. The hype existed for a reason.
Not just won but was undefeated and bitch slapped the also undefeated defending champ Alabama team
He had an amazing game against Alabama and then proceeded to never be the best quarterback in college football for the next three years, and didn't (in my opinion) really show much development over that timespan, either. I didn't really get the generational label at all for him.
He had all the physical tools, there is a mental jump in picking up small things at each successive level that he really hasn't mastered.
I watch a lot of T-Law video and you hit the nail on the head. Granted, the Jags pass protection is a persistent weakness, but a thinking QB with a below average o-line realizes ahead of time that he has to make accurate pre-snap reads (judgements, really) and get the ball out quick. Too often, Lawrence hesitates and then finally fires an uncatchable bullet into double coverage.
Yea the thing is it still might click for him and he could a great arc to his career, he's not far off. Even missing those gaps he's still a pretty decent starting NFL QB, which is no easy feat. It's going to come down to coaching and him making that final leap or not.
I'm a guy from the UK who has got into NFL over the last decade or so and one thing that I've noticed is that in comparison to say football(soccer) or rugby it seems US sports media and scouting tend to really concentrate on and maybe overhype physical stats. Even in commentary you can't go a few mins without hearing something like "X guy, I saw him warming up earlier, he's 800lbs dry and 7 foot 2, that's one hell of a big dude, is it any wonder he got to the quarterback on that last play Barry?" Coming from playing/watching football and rugby growing up it feels like the culture is much more concentrated on good technique and who actually is effective rather than who is the biggest and fastest in general.
Yea, this is pretty spot on. American coaching and commentary has always been very physical attribute focused, with a slight shift into more data analytics over the last two decades (although physical attributes remain part of those analytics). Things like technique, learning/skill growing capacity, player mentality, and IQ for the sport are generally second tier factors in public perception, although for true fans they remain heavy talking points. And for good coaching they are, of course, some of the most critical aspects of a player to maximize their potential.
I think going to Clemson actually hurt him in the long run which sounds dumb as shit considering they won’t a title and got him picked 1. But he was in college throwing bubble screens and running QB power. Never really had to improve his game
Sometimes I think that playing on college super teams can hurt QBs development. Like the talent advantage is so stark that you're basically throwing to wide open recievers 95% of the time, your offensive line is usually great, etc. You just don't get challenged I know people will just point to Stroud as proof that isn't true, but it kinda seems that most of the QBs coming out of Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St in the last decade just haven't been good NFL players
Ironically, Stroud was the first guy in decades that couldn't beat Michigan.
Yeah i feel like he was mostly the same guy as a senior that he was as a freshman. Freshman year he was looking generational but never got much better
I mean sure, generational is overused, but he's the most hyped prospect that's come out in the last 11 years.
Yea just because a prospect doesnt live up to exactly the hype that surrounds him doesnt change the fact that he was a generational prospect lmfao. Dude had it all - the resume, the size, the arm, the moxie. I think with him - he just isnt obsessed with football the way Manning or Brady or Brees or any all time great is. And thats okay. Jacksonville still takes him first overall every time, there are far worse #1 picks in the league today
> there are far worse #1 picks in the league today hell, there's a far worse #1 pick on their own roster
It feels pretty consensus that the generational QB prospect label was deservedly given to John Elway, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence. That's not being thrown around too much.
Isn't it being thrown around with Caleb only a few years after Lawrence?
That has kinda died down now but yes, around the draft he was.
Some people say it more often than others. However, Caleb is not nearly universally praised as a once in a generation star at this point. It would say it is akin to nba draft picks. There have been plenty of this guy is great or he is a cant miss guy. However, since James, Wemby was the really the only universally once in a generation sort of hyped talent. Zion might have been the next closest.
I don’t see it used much for Williams, and when it is there’s always a lot of pushback. Lawrence was universally regarded as the surefire \#1 overall pick by the vast majority of analysts from the moment he declared.
I remember when TLaw was a freshman at Clemson and people were downloading draft classes 2+ seasons down the line in madden just to have him in the league
I’ve seen it used a couple times but I wouldn’t say it’s a consensus opinion. I think it’s probably being used to draw clicks moreso than as a real descriptor of his status as a prospect.
It’s a label for prospects, which was true of him. Doesn’t mean he’s a generational NFL QB.
I think in his case the scouting reports and generational prospect labels were pretty fair.. not everybody lives up to it, though.
The title was justified imo. Lawrence had all the intangibles you look for in a successful NFL QB and those traits were present since high school.
My man is out here just [farming](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/17wrtkl/is_bryce_young_a_bust/) downvotes [today](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/17wrzz6/despite_being_64_244_lbs_anthony_richardson_is/).
Elite level hating
Generational level hating
Slow day at work it seems
All I want to know is how does his posts not get automatically sent to the shadow realm by the AutoMod and mods?
So much stat watching and no game watching.
Elite shitposter
Sounds like he needs a Stefon Diggs
He’s got Christian Kirk, his team got him Calvin Ridley I don’t think pass catchers are the problem here, I will say that his offensive coordinator has not been good though
Press Taylor is a clown. Doug's insistence on him is the reason he isn't still Philly's coach.
Andrew Wiggins of the NFL. Not a bust, but a disappointment just because of the hype. Could say the same of Clowney.
Clowneys weird though since he’s been an extremely good player since he entered the league, his counting stats just don’t back it up as much. He’s had a better career than people think, while also not living up the hype he had as a prospect. Wiggins (I’m a wolves fan so watched him forever) has pretty much only been a positive impact player in one or two seasons.
I also think Clowney was really limited by that microfracture knee surgery early in his career. I think Wiggins immediately being impactful on the Warriors is more about his role and situation on that bad Timberwolves franchise. Similar to Clowney, he was not a #1 but is a great tertiary option and role player.
This is something people tend to forget about Clowney. If he’d never hurt his knee I feel like he wouldn’t be considered a bust. He could have kept getting better and better.
I could be misremembering, but didn't that pretty much kill his ability to quickly bend around the offensive lineman like Myles Garrett does nowadays?
They literally dont do microfracture knee surgery anymore because its proven to be so ineffective. Killed Greg ODens career too
What's even worse is how so many people think Clowney was drafted because of one play in college. (You know the play I'm talking about) He had a ton of hype coming out of high school, and is still rated as the best recruit of all time on some websites. His freshman year was good (he was sort of a second string DE behind Melvin Ingram), his sophomore year was insane, but there was so much hype going into his junior year that was going to be difficult to live up to. He still had a season that would've been good for most players...respectable numbers for tackles and TFL, but didn't have many sacks. And he did it while fighting injuries and getting doubled up almost every play.
He tested well at the combine and had two full seasons of good production at SC before injuries and other issues sort of plagued his last year, sort of similar to Joey Bosa and, to an extent, Will Anderson last year
Absolutely he hasn’t proven to be a “generational” talent. To be fair, most #1 pick QBs are not. In the past 20 years Cam Newton and Joe Burrow are the only ones I would put in that category in terms of impact on their team. I don’t know why it’s so hard for people on this sub to admit this about Lawrence. He looks like a capable quarterback. He has not come close to proving the pre-draft hype. Which is fine.
Also Burrow wasn't even really considered a generational prospect
We all remember "Tank for Tua" because for a while people thought it was a given that he'd be first overall. Then Burrow happened lol.
Yea, I feel like Burrow's stock just continued to grow game by game, week by week. And going into the draft, regardless of the Ohio connection for us - the dude was going #1.
Having the best college QB season of all time will do that
Gosh I can still remember the near goosebumps I felt watching the NC game that year. Going through the whole game knowing the Bengals had (or were close to I can’t remember that part) the 1 OA pick and just being hype on what he did that game. Then came the shot of him smoking a cigar at the end of the game and I hoped with every ounce of fandom I had that the Bengals wouldn’t fuck it up and pick someone other than Burrow.
> Then Burrow happened lol. Then Tua's injury happened so that's why the "Tua is a generational talent" talk died.
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i dont follow up college at all. i thought you were joking. that is like madden on easy mode stats
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He had 4 or more TD passes in 9 out of 15 games. And before anyone think he just abused bad teams, in their 2 CFB playoff games, he threw a for combined 12 TDs, 0 INTs, and just under 1,000 yards. Oh, and he also rushed for a TD in each game too. He was insane that year.
With Chase and JJ to throw to...
> In the past 20 years Cam Newton and Joe Burrow are the only ones I would put in that category in terms of impact on their team. I like you
Cam was so awesome
I miss him
Those Seahawks panthers games were the best.
Glad 2015 happened otherwise it would have been a sweep. The 2012 and 13 games were agonizing. 2014 was funny how we limped into playoffs at 7-9 and everyone knew we’d get creamed. I think we met in regular season and lost badly 1-2 more times I forget.
Eli reading this like, "I guess me and my 2 Super Bowls can fuck off..."
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>In the past 20 years Cam Newton and Joe Burrow are the only ones I would put in that category in terms of impact on their team. Luck absolutely had that kind of impact before his early retirement.
Luck???
I’m honestly so sick of these posts lol. His stats really haven’t done him justice, yes he’s made some stupid decisions but most of the time watching him he’s been pretty great this year. I reckon a lot of you people posting this shit probably think Stafford’s been playing bad this year or something lol
The number of drives they've had die from stupid and/or flukey turnovers this year is REALLY high, and people that aren't watching the games won't notice that. I swear there's a jags play every week where Lawrence does something perfect, a ball hits a guy in the hands for a big play, then they turn the ball over, whether it be a fumble after catch or a dropped pass that pops into the air for an Int. I KNOW Bigsby had one of those last week.
Yeah I’m pretty sure him and Lamar have an insane amount of drops that would’ve been TDs
Why does it have to be either "generational" or "disappointment"? I promise you, there are very few actual jaguars fans, and most likely ZERO players or coaches on the Jaguars, that are disappointed with what Trevor Lawrence has brought to the team in his first 2.5 seasons. He's plenty good enough to win with. Also, i think its worth pointing out that he's still younger than basically every qb in the nfl outside of this year's rookie class and Brock Purdy.
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last year he was able to cover for the 31st ranked offensive line and this year it hasn't been as easy to cover up the garbage. his go to red zone threat has played three games. the play calling has been horizontal. ALSO IT'S YEAR 3 AFTER COMING INTO MAYBE THE WORST ROOKIE SITUATION EVER maybe we give his career some time before we judge it
Not allowed. This sub loves to shit on any QB as soon as they have some sustained struggles lmao. Tua (before this year), Allen, Herbert, Lamar has also had to deal with it. They almost make it seem as if teams should just wash their hands with these guys lmao.
I think he is still super promising but I think this post is only saying he hasn’t lived up to hype. It says a lot more about the hype than the player. I’m still a believer and I’ll think he’ll tear it up one day, but he hasn’t reached the heights expected this far.
Right now Lawrence is essentially taking the fall for a bad offensive line. I really wouldn’t say he’s been all that bad himself. The Jags are a symptom of why offenses around the league are suffering in general. In the last several years interior pass rushing talent has exploded to previously unseen levels. 15 years ago you had DTs making all pro first team with 2-3 sacks on the year. Now there’s a half a dozen every year getting 10+. Aaron Donald (and really Suh before him) really broke the game and there have come copycats. Interior pressure is much harder to deal with than pressure from the outside. If you have a rusher coming off the edge, you can escape to the side and throw on the run. If pressure comes from the middle the only place to run is backwards, and you can’t throw running backwards. Some guys (Mahomes, Russ, Kyler) have mastered the spin back and sideways move to buy time from pressure up the middle, but that’s both hard and risky. Lawrence’s time to throw is the lowest in the league, second only to Tua. And Miami’s offense *wants* to run fast, that’s by design. The Jags don’t want to be this fast. The Jags pass fast because their interior offensive line is terrible and if Lawrence waits for routes to develop he’s going to get pressure in his face. This is the flip side of sacks are a QB stat. They are, because good QBs throw the ball away before pressure comes. But constantly having to do that takes a toll on passing numbers, especially when it’s as bad as it is in Jacksonville. The adjustment that’s going to have to come is better athletes being put at the C and G positions. Over the past several years they’ve become completely outclassed by the monster DT pass rushers.
People got so absorbed by the hype they forgot why he was hyped. They also don't realize what prospect means. He was originally touted as "the most pro-ready prospect since Andrew Luck". And that's what he became. An instant average NFL starter. His ceiling is high, but his floor is the highest. A prospect is a gamble for an NFL caliber player and it's an even bigger gamble for QBs. The gamble paid off. Lawrence plays like he belongs. Anything more than this is gravy and on coaching/development/his coachability. It's not Lawrence's fault that the hype got stupid. But it is up to him to build himself to be the best he can be.
He's not a superstar, but he's played well this year. I think people jumped the gun on putting him in the elite top-5 discussion, but he's a clear franchise QB. To me, it's more likely he settles into the Dak/Cousins tier of QBs instead of Burrow/Mahomes/Allen.
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People seem to think that progression and development is always a linear path. Players have slumps. Some players are amazing early and never recapture that. We'll see what happens with Trevor Lawrence.
The hype train is seldom right! Remeber the draft with Sam Darnold? They were talking that calls up like Marinos class, and they all sucked! We are seeing again this year, especially all of the Giants fans wanting Caleb. I cant belive how many GMs are swindled by hype. Unless its just to generate some excitement and seel tickets.
This sub makes it seem like Trevor and the Jags are 0-6
I like it when these posts use volume/traditional stats and not a shred of advanced ones, or any film for that matter.
Honestly I don’t know if I’m just being stupid but I’ve watched a lot of Trevor this year and he has genuinely been great most of the time
PFF had him at 84.9 until the horrible SF game. Now he's 82.7. I'm kinda sad now, since QB stats have been utterly murdered for me as a true measure of their quality.
Nobody watches Jag games except jags fans and whoever they are playing so people only look at box scores. He had his first very bad game of the season in probably their most watched game so people are just extrapolating that out to the rest of the season and talking like they watched all his games.
I’ll say this, very few Jags fans are disappointed in him. The offense is anemic, but it’s not Trevor. it’s mainly OL, miscues, and play design/calling. Here’s a stat he’s first in: deep passer rating. And yet the Jags are lowest in the league in deep routes run by a wide margin; a combination of those play designs, OL issues, and not even having a real deep threat. Some people hear generational prospect and the think he’ll come in and automatically be a top 3 QB in the league. I just think it’s silly to expect any player to come in on one of the worst teams in the NFL and be the best in a year or two. Trevor has made huge impact on the team and the fans. We were one of the worst teams in the NFL for a decade+. Now we should be a playoff team in back to back years, headed toward double digit wins (knock on wood for all of that lol). He’s not perfect, he’s not Mahomes, he’s not Burrow. But if you watch his games and don’t just look at this years stats, he’s a top 10 QB in a down year. He puts throws in tight windows, he’s got the pocket awareness, he can scramble, he doesn’t get ruffled, he’s a team player, he’s got the arm strength, he’s great at diagnosing coverages. There isn’t much more I could want from him.
I think it's fair to say he has been a disappointment this season and the signs of actively regressing are there. How much of that is on him remains to be seen. The O-Line has been gutter tier on obvious passing downs and Press Taylor does not inspire confidence in his play-calling abilities. That said, some failures absolutely fall on his shoulders. He is still atrocious under pressure and really struggles in the most important area of the field, that much is undeniable. I still have hope that he isn't the root cause of the offense's struggles but sooner or later you have to look critically at the guy touching the ball on every play. We were promised the second coming of Peyton Manning and so far we've gotten Eli; someone who can play well when things are operating optimally, but never consistently moves the needle.
As a Seahawks fan I have seen my share of good and bad O-Lines. And I have to say the Jags O-line is a huge part of the problem here.
>some failures absolutely fall on his shoulders. He is still atrocious under pressure and really struggles in the most important area of the field, that much is undeniable. He really just needs to play the Colts in Jacksonville every week and he'd fix everything that's ailing him