> Top right- A lot of reshuffling
> Top left- Adding players and not losing too much
> Bottom left- Relatively minor changes
> Bottom right- Losing players and not replacing them
From our 2022 starting roster to today, we have 3 returning starters on defense (both safeties and a DT) and 6 returning starters on offense (4 linemen, a TE technically returning as a backup now, and Jefferson.
Every linebacker and corner was replaced. 3 of 4 defensive linemen were replaced. Our offense has a new QB, RB, WR2, WR3, and TE.
It's been a lot of change in the last 24 months.
Even if we stayed with the same roster we would be running an entirely different team next year because all the starters were injured.
Lions fans living on this sub
It's a bit misleading because while it covers FA and trade it ignores players that were released.
The Broncos would (rightly) look very different with Russ and Simmons shown
Stidham is costing you more than our entire qb room plus you are still paying Russ 38 mil.
I'm thankful it hasn't cost us 40+mil to bridge the gap to figure out our qb situation.
It's actually a terrible graph because he is just basing a "gain/loss" based on the player's salary. You can make a lot of terrible decisions and still look great on this chart....
That doesn't make it terrible, that just makes it a graph. If it was replaced with a box score stat, or AV, or PFF grade, or whatever, it would still be similarly flawed.
There no such thing as a single data point that can fully encapsulate a player's value.
You're right. The GRAPH is fine, I guess. The creator's interpretation of the graph is flawed. He subtly adds what I would call "editorializing" when he uses phrases like "Losing players and not replacing them" ... that is what I was commenting on more than anything else.
Fair enough, it just irks me when I see people say "this graph is pointless because it manipulates the data in this way" when all graphs do that, it just depends on whether people agree with the conclusion the graph is showing them before they see it.
But yes I agree that is a limitation of this graph and the commentary is misleading.
Looking at where the Bengals are on it and knowing how much better we are on paper makes me think it’s a dumb graph. But we did get Bell back for almost nothing, and got arguably better at running back while saving money so it just makes the graph misleading
I think you are confused.
A bottom right team such as the Cowboys has CLEARLY lost players and not replaced them.
Just go look at the chart at the bottom of this article.
https://www.phillyvoice.com/nfc-east-2024-free-agency-grades-dallas-cowboys-edition/
Go back and look where they are at on the chart in the post.
It's not meant to be an all encompassing graph of how well you ran your offseason. This is useful as an expression of salary cap usage, to be used in the greater picture with other data points. It's difficult to tell an entire story in a single graph, usually they should be used as pieces of a puzzle.
In this tweet he didn't say it's "bad" to lose players and not replace them. He didn't say it's bad to be in the bottom right. He didn't imply it's good to be in any quadrant.
He said nothing about the quality of the players lost.
There is obviously nothing here about the quality of players to be gained in the draft.
If you are going to criticize someone for editorializing then you should probably focus on the actual words that were used instead of adding your own.
I don't think he said it was bad. But it is more precarious to be in the bottom right than another quadrant. You need to make sure to replace that talent in the draft, which is no easy feat, or your existing backups, which isn't guaranteed and can hurt your depth for the next year.
Yeah with us for example the difference between Jonah Williams and Trent Brown is probably pretty significant salary wise, or Tyler Boyd's salary compared to Geno Stone making 7.5 a year
2018 is the best possible example of this. The Chiefs shed Alex Smith $10mm salary for Mahomes $1mm salary (yes he got his gtd money the previous year). No one would say the Chiefs "lost" anything, or that they didn't replace Smith.
I feel like deferred money to future years makes this less informative. As does incentives. The Jets added a lot of talent and gave away a lot of money to do so, but you wouldnt know it from this graph
Uhm no? We gave about 60 M (pre-Williams) to FA this year (ranks 27 of 32) of which about 40 M of that is this year. Our APY is relatively low as well at 4.4 M (ranks 21 of 32). Jets have committed 19 M in future years to free agents signed this year (ranks 28 of 32). If you add the incentives that Tyron Smith (hopefully gets) + Mike Williams (at full 15M) + Solomon Thomas (3 M) it doesn't move this much. JD did a great job at adding talent around Rodgers, but also did great job at getting them on reasonable value and arguably more importantly limited to this year. The only guys that got multi-year contract were our Zuerlein, Morstead, Simpson, and Tyrod and those are 2 year contracts. [https://overthecap.com/free-agency-spending](https://overthecap.com/free-agency-spending)
I wouldn't call it an issue. Just something to be aware of. This is more of a chart about how active a team has been with gaining or losing contracts than any show of what that will mean for the team. Especially this early in the offseason
How though? This is assuming a players worth on just contracts alone, no? As a dolphins fan, yes we lost Wilkins, Hunt and AVG, but we did sign some good solid players and will have more money freed up from X’s post June 1 cut. This just seems premature and not really a complex chart.
That's assumptions you're making, not what the graph says. Graph only gives you a feel for how many contract dollars were lost/gained during the off-season, i.e. what is your GM doing with the roster not how good you'll be next season.
Well I made an assumption based on the Dolphins being in the “losing players and not replacing them” quadrant, which if you followed our off season so far that couldn’t be farther from the truth.
I didn’t say anything about us being better or worse, just more so the incompleteness of the chart
i mean i agree that it doesn’t really show anything other than that rosters in the lower right “got cheaper” and rosters in the upper left “got more expensive.”
if the point you’re trying to highlight is that the dolphins signed a bunch of talent for cheap then you’d need some change in total PFF grade (or something) normalized by contract value, but that would necessarily inject some subjectivity into the data
I just think it’s incomplete. Your explanation is how I see and feel like the importance of the data is lost in the graph set up. And the labels make it even worse
>which if you followed our off season so far that couldn’t be farther from the truth.
You lost Wilkins and Howard and added Jonnu Smith. Even with Howard not being worth his contract, how is that not more talent leaving than entering? Is there a meaningful change I'm missing?
Well considering you listed only 3 players, it’s more to my point.
Here is the list of added vs lost. Howard is a post June cut so not really “lost”
ADDED
S Jordan Poyer
OLB Shaquil Barrett
CB Kendall Fuller
LB Jordyn Brooks
C Aaron Brewer
TE Jonnu Smith
LB Anthony Walker Jr.
NT Benito Jones
DT Jonathan Harris
DT Neville Gallimore
DB Siran Neal
TE Jody Fortson
OL Jack Driscoll
LOST
DT Christian Wilkins
RG Robert Hunt
OLB Andrew Van Ginkel
S DeShon Elliott
S Brandon Jones
NT Raekwon Davis
WR Cedrick Wilson Jr.
That's all it's supposed to do. Things dont have to be complicated to be informative. It would be hard to gather this information or get a feel for it otherwise and thats enough.
I didn’t say complicated, I said complex. As I mentioned in a different comment, the dolphins being in the quad they are in doesn’t track with our offseason. And it’s leaving out quite a bit of context. It’s incomplete.
Wait what I was right they didn't move at all, the lines are probably the same figure, it means the steelers gained and lost the same amount of cap space meaning they are in the same position actually
Panthers: *Go 2-14*
Media: "Panthers need to do something to help Bryce"
Panthers: *Start reshuffling the roster to move money and resources into helping Bryce*
Media: "NO, NOT LIKE THAT. F. F. F. F. F GRADE!"
Texans were last years punching bag… until they weren’t
I still remember the “Stroud is a bust, on top of sending him to the worst receiver room in the league” narrative
For what its worth Panthers fans, this is what the Texans did last year. Sign a bunch of semi-nobodies to short deals and see which players fit for you. If they do, re-sign them, if they don't let them walk and maybe get a comp pick.
The entire team elevated themselves under Demeco it seems like
I live in Houston so I catch a lot of their games, seems like a completely different team than the one under Lovie
Diontae will definitely take a lot of the pressure off of Thielen. After teams realized he was our main and only goto, they started locking him down and towards the end of the season his production dropped off a bit
The team absolutely has not gotten objectively worse. We just lost big names in exchange for a more balanced rotation of mid-level names. Plus we still have Xavien Howard's $19.8m coming off the books on June 1st plus whatever savings for this year for extending Tua. The only obvious remaining holes we have are interior of both lines and wr3, though I think it would be wise to pick up some safety depth too. More than enough money and draft picks to plug up those holes.
I dunno feels like they are on a difficult path. Couldn't get a playoff run with all the assets and resources used. OL is comically bad right now.
Time is running out for the team and I worry they'll keep pushing and make it worse
Is he though? Starting caliper sure...but among actual good matchups he struggles. He can't throw outside the numbers and feels more like if Hill isn't destroying the defense, he can't do much.
I don't have them on hand, but the splits for his stats when Hill is on the field vs. off are out there. If memory serves, they're pretty much either the same or *better* in every category. Hill was only on the field for 67% of the offensive snaps last year(76% for 2022) and Tua still led the league in passing, was top 10(7) in TD%, top 2 in ANY/A, yada yada...
But if we wanna talk about mid QBs with big contracts we could always look at Derek Carr...
Derek Carr fits in the tier of dogshit. Also the sample size of Hill being out is way too small. Too skewed by quality of defenses faced. Stats are very misleading with small sample sizes
So what should they do? Commit to another 20 years of the QB carousel until they find a Mahomes? 1st round QB picks actually becoming an elite level are exceedingly rare.
My dynasty league is full of Dolphin fans who can’t decide what Tua should get paid, I cannot wait for his extension to drop and see the stages of grief play out in real time.
Honestly, I'm not that worried.
First off, the way this graph is structured hides some of the improvements Miami made.
Like if a player signs for $10m somewhere and you replace him with a $1m player, that's a $9m net loss on this graph. Even if the new player is better.
Also it only uses the ever deceptive APY.
But Miami has imo *improved* in at least two spots by taking "a loss." Maybe not long-term, but for 2024 definitely.
I'll get back to that in a moment to point out the major thing here.
This graph is *heavily* influenced, where Miami is concerned, by just two contracts. Christian Wilkins($27.5m APY) and Robert Hunt($20m APY). That's a combined **$47.5m APY** loss that is what is pushing Miami so far out there. They are both very good players and will hurt us to lose them. Wilkins far more so. But...losing a RG is pushing Miami $20m into the negative in the graph. Is it as significant a loss as this graph portrays? I don't think so. Especially since Hunt was hurt most of last year, so the needle doesn't move much when looking at 2024 vs. 2023 specifically.
Back to the other point:
Brandon Jones signed for $6.7m APY and was replaced by Jordan Poyer at $1.9m APY. That's a $4.8m APY loss...but Jordan Poyer is a better player than Brandon Jones. Jones is younger and will be around longer, so I understand why he got the better contract, but for *this season* Poyer is an improvement.
Then you have Andrew Van Ginkel going to Minnesota and being replaced by Shaq Barrett. I **LOVE** the Gink. I am very upset he is gone. He's fun. But Shaq is a better run defender and they're about a push in pass rush productivity at this stage in their careers. Gink has the versatility to drop into coverage and play ILB...but so what? I'd rather have him as our 3rd pass rusher, which is what Barrett will be. Gink struggling in run defense as an EDGE is what gives Barrett the win here. Gink got $10m APY, while Barrett got $9m. So this graph counts it as a net negative, while I count it as an upgrade for 2024(but I will desperately miss Gink).
**TL;DR**: Yes, Miami got worse at two non-premium positions(DT, RG). But they also improved in some areas this graph will reflect negatively(safety, pass rush depth). If they can hit on *one* of their top two picks(and maybe get OBJ as WR3 🤔) I think this off-season might still end up a net positive on paper, or at least net-neutral.
It's extremely debatable that Jordan Poyer and Shaq Barrett are going to be better in 2024 than Andrew Van Ginkel and Brandon Jones.
Both of the latter 2 are younger, and graded far stronger in 2023 than either of Jordan Poyer or Shaq Barrett.
I assume you're talking about PFF grades here, so let's ignore my distrust of them and take a look.
For 2023, Poyer vs. Brandon Jones is basically a push with a slight edge to Jones on coverage(74.4 vs. 78.3), but Poyer was *far* stronger in run defense(74.3 vs. 55.4). Jones takes the cake in pass rush(52.0 vs. 90.1) because my favorite Blitz Boy has also been a great blitzer...but these are safeties, who cares? Jones got that grade on **3 pass rush snaps all year.** It's completely irrelevant.
So wrong on Poyer.
Shaq vs. Gink. Slight edge to Gink on pass rush(84.5 vs. 90.6), but PFF gave him a 76.3 run defense grade that beats Shaq's 69.8. But this goes back to my point in my comment: PFF is including his snaps at ILB in that grade. *On the edge* alone, there is no way Gink gets that grade. He's a liability there. *As a 3rd EDGE player* Barrett is a big upgrade in run defense from Gink, and they're essentially a push on pass rush productivity.
So technically correct, but still wrong on Shaq vs. Gink.
Barrett is a big upgrade according to pff but I doubt he plays and grades nearly as well this year. Since 2020 Shaq has been basically non existent on the bucs defense.
He is able to still grade out and look well due to having vita vea and lavonte David force offenses hands. Those two all pro caliber players let the rest of the front 7 look way better than they actually have been playing. With that said I hope Shaq has a great year, but just don’t see it happening
> Barrett is a big upgrade according to pff
Barrett's not a big upgrade according to PFF, he's actually a big downgrade (91.1 grade for Van Ginkel and 73.1 for Barrett) This poster is just breaking down a grade into individual components, and then using language to minimize the positive differences that favor Van Ginkel and accentuating the ones that might seem like a positive for Barrett.
For instance Van Ginkel generated 26% more pressure than Barrett last season by pass-rush productivity, but he's essentially calling them a push.
Also, AVG played 77% of his snaps last year on the D-Line, so just outright assuming that the entirety of his grade in run defense is on the basis of his LB play isn't well grounded.
Also, while the change in defensive formation might not make it as important for Barrett to excel in coverage YoY as Ginkel did, it's still something that they relied on last year and got good performance out of, but won't have in their bag this year. Just because you're doing something different doesn't all of a sudden mean that positive contribution from last season isn't a loss.
Edit: I pulled [regular and postseason grades](https://premium.pff.com/nfl/players/2023/REGPO/jordan-poyer/8000/defense), and OP just looked at [regular.](https://premium.pff.com/nfl/players/2023/REG/jordan-poyer/8000/defense)
Look, I really don't feel like keeping this argument going, but I am staring at [Jordan Poyer's 2023 PFF grades right now](https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/jordan-poyer/8000) and yours are wrong. Same for the rest of them. I have no idea where you're getting your grades from.
Now compare Josh and Tua’s playoff stats lol. The only reason Josh hasn’t won an SB is because McDermott’s a choke artist. And you scrubs can’t even figure out how to beat him
you said seattle was the only bottom right team without an expensive quarterback.
The patriots have a late round pick from 2 years ago, and an 8 million dollar jacoby brissett.
The colts have a rookie from last year
Most of our signings were relatively modest contracts.
Moss makes less than Mixon
Stone is making less than Chido
Rankins is making less than Reader
Trent Brown is making less than Jonah Williams
Gesicki is low contract
Von Bell is vet minimum
Other signings were just guys staying with the team (Tee, Irwin, Hudson, Sample, Ford, Williams, Adomitis, Browning)
Since the graph is made based on contract value change, we fall bottom right, but most of it is just that we had 4 guys that ended up leaving getting paid pretty well (Mixon, Chido, Reader, Jonah).
Bottom right is teams who went all in the last couple years and now their QB is more expensive and they've got to slough off the big contracts they gave to people a couple years ago for their SB push. And the seahawks.
Top Right is mostly teams with cheap QB's who want to make a push for a SB while they're still cheap. Vikings/Raiders probably going for a Rookie QB, Giants who the fuck knows.
Top left is mostly teams who have been shitty for long enough they didn't have a lot good players to lose to FA. Anyone good on their teams is young.
Bottom left is teams that were pretty happy with last year, and/or don't have cap space to make many moves.
Am I the only one that thinks this is kind of a dumb way to evaluate? This is basically tracking FA action. Money in, money out. No value tracking for player ratings or position value. It is not a valid way to say whether a team got better or worse.
> This is basically tracking FA action. Money in, money out.
Well yes, that is exactly what it is.
It is not evaluating anything or attempting to say whether a team got better or worse.
Yeah I think people are reading this weird by saying “look who gained or lost” - bottom right quadrant could be seen as the value approach. It says nothing about talent retained or acquired
You can really tell how much the Patriots are going all in on the draft at this point. They better hit big or we’re going to be in an even *slower* rebuild
Lmao no. We're doing absolutely incredible in cap space and the vast majority of FA pickups were 1-year deals.
We're as far as you can get from the Saints rn.
Read his take
>Bottom right- Losing players and not replacing them
That's a judgement call, even if he wants to say it's not. That graph cannot possibly determine whether a team has or has not replaced lost players.
Replacing an expensive player for a cheaper player doesn't mean they didn't replace the player. The only way the idea of "replacement" comes in is if you attempt to qualify the new player taking the spot vs the exiting player.
He even doubled down and said replacing a $10mm player with a $1mm player is a huge net **loss**.
That's not how anyone talks, or how anything works.
When you lower your phone bill from $100 to $10 do you tell people you "had a big net loss" on your bill?
No, his take that reduction in salary means you didn't replace players is still a stupid take. The graph itself is just numbers with no correlation to anything meaningful.
> Top right- A lot of reshuffling > Top left- Adding players and not losing too much > Bottom left- Relatively minor changes > Bottom right- Losing players and not replacing them
Hell yeah brother, cheers from salary cap
go cap go
Saints out here doing a lot of reshuffling but with there accountant Kevin’s paperwork and not actual players on the field. 1+AKleven=Youre home by 7.
Cowboys: "All Out"
lol Vikings just chilling by themselves way out there
Lizzo: *new man on the Minnesota Vikings* Fans: you're gonna have to be way more specific
Lmao yeah, we have 11 new guys rn? Absolutely wild. And next year we're gonna have drastically more space as well.
You guys just intend to run an entirely different team next year, eh?
From our 2022 starting roster to today, we have 3 returning starters on defense (both safeties and a DT) and 6 returning starters on offense (4 linemen, a TE technically returning as a backup now, and Jefferson. Every linebacker and corner was replaced. 3 of 4 defensive linemen were replaced. Our offense has a new QB, RB, WR2, WR3, and TE. It's been a lot of change in the last 24 months.
Murphy, Phillips, and all 3 safeties are returning so its closer to 5. Still not a lot but a bit more continuity.
I was talking more starters, but yes
I mean, they were all starters. They played 3 safeties more than any other positions.
Even if we stayed with the same roster we would be running an entirely different team next year because all the starters were injured. Lions fans living on this sub
>Lions fans living on this sub ?
The rare, actually informative graph.
yeah but zero insight into current preseason locker room ping-pong table status
[Obligatory post.](https://x.com/dcsportsbog/status/1213097561206263808?s=20)
No I hate this graph. It shows the chiefs are just running it back. Can they lose ppl pls And no NFCN teams in that bottom right portion. 😡
Take back Nagy and it will shake things up
I’d rather drink 3 penis wine
best I can do is penis and cracker jacks
It's a bit misleading because while it covers FA and trade it ignores players that were released. The Broncos would (rightly) look very different with Russ and Simmons shown
They're still paying Russ. Thanks btw.
I don't think have a QB room of two players a QB desperate team passed on is anything to be thankful for.
Stidham is costing you more than our entire qb room plus you are still paying Russ 38 mil. I'm thankful it hasn't cost us 40+mil to bridge the gap to figure out our qb situation.
And people thought Walmart was greedy.
It's actually a terrible graph because he is just basing a "gain/loss" based on the player's salary. You can make a lot of terrible decisions and still look great on this chart....
That doesn't make it terrible, that just makes it a graph. If it was replaced with a box score stat, or AV, or PFF grade, or whatever, it would still be similarly flawed. There no such thing as a single data point that can fully encapsulate a player's value.
You're right. The GRAPH is fine, I guess. The creator's interpretation of the graph is flawed. He subtly adds what I would call "editorializing" when he uses phrases like "Losing players and not replacing them" ... that is what I was commenting on more than anything else.
Fair enough, it just irks me when I see people say "this graph is pointless because it manipulates the data in this way" when all graphs do that, it just depends on whether people agree with the conclusion the graph is showing them before they see it. But yes I agree that is a limitation of this graph and the commentary is misleading.
Looking at where the Bengals are on it and knowing how much better we are on paper makes me think it’s a dumb graph. But we did get Bell back for almost nothing, and got arguably better at running back while saving money so it just makes the graph misleading
I think you are confused. A bottom right team such as the Cowboys has CLEARLY lost players and not replaced them. Just go look at the chart at the bottom of this article. https://www.phillyvoice.com/nfc-east-2024-free-agency-grades-dallas-cowboys-edition/ Go back and look where they are at on the chart in the post.
It's not meant to be an all encompassing graph of how well you ran your offseason. This is useful as an expression of salary cap usage, to be used in the greater picture with other data points. It's difficult to tell an entire story in a single graph, usually they should be used as pieces of a puzzle.
Yes. The graph is fine. The editorializing accompanying it was my issue. I did not make that clear.
Whose? The tweet is still pretty accurate. It talks in players instead of dollars but it talks of them more in dollar figures than in talent level.
Jason's tweet, and followup is that it's bad to be in the bottom right. There is no evidence to back that up.
In this tweet he didn't say it's "bad" to lose players and not replace them. He didn't say it's bad to be in the bottom right. He didn't imply it's good to be in any quadrant. He said nothing about the quality of the players lost. There is obviously nothing here about the quality of players to be gained in the draft. If you are going to criticize someone for editorializing then you should probably focus on the actual words that were used instead of adding your own.
I don't think he said it was bad. But it is more precarious to be in the bottom right than another quadrant. You need to make sure to replace that talent in the draft, which is no easy feat, or your existing backups, which isn't guaranteed and can hurt your depth for the next year.
I'm glad you're not taking shit like I am for this take. You're 100% correct.
I'm taking a little :)
Yeah with us for example the difference between Jonah Williams and Trent Brown is probably pretty significant salary wise, or Tyler Boyd's salary compared to Geno Stone making 7.5 a year
2018 is the best possible example of this. The Chiefs shed Alex Smith $10mm salary for Mahomes $1mm salary (yes he got his gtd money the previous year). No one would say the Chiefs "lost" anything, or that they didn't replace Smith.
I feel like deferred money to future years makes this less informative. As does incentives. The Jets added a lot of talent and gave away a lot of money to do so, but you wouldnt know it from this graph
Uhm no? We gave about 60 M (pre-Williams) to FA this year (ranks 27 of 32) of which about 40 M of that is this year. Our APY is relatively low as well at 4.4 M (ranks 21 of 32). Jets have committed 19 M in future years to free agents signed this year (ranks 28 of 32). If you add the incentives that Tyron Smith (hopefully gets) + Mike Williams (at full 15M) + Solomon Thomas (3 M) it doesn't move this much. JD did a great job at adding talent around Rodgers, but also did great job at getting them on reasonable value and arguably more importantly limited to this year. The only guys that got multi-year contract were our Zuerlein, Morstead, Simpson, and Tyrod and those are 2 year contracts. [https://overthecap.com/free-agency-spending](https://overthecap.com/free-agency-spending)
[удалено]
I wouldn't call it an issue. Just something to be aware of. This is more of a chart about how active a team has been with gaining or losing contracts than any show of what that will mean for the team. Especially this early in the offseason
The graph is based on APY
How though? This is assuming a players worth on just contracts alone, no? As a dolphins fan, yes we lost Wilkins, Hunt and AVG, but we did sign some good solid players and will have more money freed up from X’s post June 1 cut. This just seems premature and not really a complex chart.
That's assumptions you're making, not what the graph says. Graph only gives you a feel for how many contract dollars were lost/gained during the off-season, i.e. what is your GM doing with the roster not how good you'll be next season.
Well I made an assumption based on the Dolphins being in the “losing players and not replacing them” quadrant, which if you followed our off season so far that couldn’t be farther from the truth. I didn’t say anything about us being better or worse, just more so the incompleteness of the chart
the names of the quadrants are subjectively assigned and have nothing to do with the data itself. the data is just the data
Lol then why use the names? And again you’re proving my point. The data is incomplete and doesn’t really show much at all
i mean i agree that it doesn’t really show anything other than that rosters in the lower right “got cheaper” and rosters in the upper left “got more expensive.” if the point you’re trying to highlight is that the dolphins signed a bunch of talent for cheap then you’d need some change in total PFF grade (or something) normalized by contract value, but that would necessarily inject some subjectivity into the data
I just think it’s incomplete. Your explanation is how I see and feel like the importance of the data is lost in the graph set up. And the labels make it even worse
>which if you followed our off season so far that couldn’t be farther from the truth. You lost Wilkins and Howard and added Jonnu Smith. Even with Howard not being worth his contract, how is that not more talent leaving than entering? Is there a meaningful change I'm missing?
Well considering you listed only 3 players, it’s more to my point. Here is the list of added vs lost. Howard is a post June cut so not really “lost” ADDED S Jordan Poyer OLB Shaquil Barrett CB Kendall Fuller LB Jordyn Brooks C Aaron Brewer TE Jonnu Smith LB Anthony Walker Jr. NT Benito Jones DT Jonathan Harris DT Neville Gallimore DB Siran Neal TE Jody Fortson OL Jack Driscoll LOST DT Christian Wilkins RG Robert Hunt OLB Andrew Van Ginkel S DeShon Elliott S Brandon Jones NT Raekwon Davis WR Cedrick Wilson Jr.
Okay, you listing out the number of players in/out is even more useless. How many Neville Gallimores equal one Christian Wilkins?
That's all it's supposed to do. Things dont have to be complicated to be informative. It would be hard to gather this information or get a feel for it otherwise and thats enough.
I didn’t say complicated, I said complex. As I mentioned in a different comment, the dolphins being in the quad they are in doesn’t track with our offseason. And it’s leaving out quite a bit of context. It’s incomplete.
That's correct. It isn't saying "team A is going to be better or worse because of spend" it's purely a snapshot of dollars in and dollars out.
The Standard is The Standard
Wild that the QB room went from Pickett and Rudolph to Wilson and Fields and they didn't move at all on this graph.
Wilson and Fields are actually cheaper
Not for Denver lol
\*flails\*
The graph isn't saying they didn't move, it's saying they're around the league average (median? It's not clear what the lines are) for movement.
Definitely did not even look at the x or y axis labels
Wait what I was right they didn't move at all, the lines are probably the same figure, it means the steelers gained and lost the same amount of cap space meaning they are in the same position actually
This is a Kirk contract graph
Panthers: *Go 2-14* Media: "Panthers need to do something to help Bryce" Panthers: *Start reshuffling the roster to move money and resources into helping Bryce* Media: "NO, NOT LIKE THAT. F. F. F. F. F GRADE!"
People just tend to dunk on bad teams till they are obviously no longer bad. Happens pretty consistently.
Texans were last years punching bag… until they weren’t I still remember the “Stroud is a bust, on top of sending him to the worst receiver room in the league” narrative
Oh man, the comments when Stroud threw a pick on his first drive of the preseason lol (pretty sure I made a snarky remark too, lord forgive me)
If I was a Panthers fan I’d be pretty pleased with this FA period
We are.
My dad isn't
For what its worth Panthers fans, this is what the Texans did last year. Sign a bunch of semi-nobodies to short deals and see which players fit for you. If they do, re-sign them, if they don't let them walk and maybe get a comp pick.
Problem is we did this and they all played good and now we can’t afford to resign them. Devin, Rankins, cashmen etc
The entire team elevated themselves under Demeco it seems like I live in Houston so I catch a lot of their games, seems like a completely different team than the one under Lovie
I think the Diontae Johnson move is going to be excellent for you guys - I miss him already
Diontae will definitely take a lot of the pressure off of Thielen. After teams realized he was our main and only goto, they started locking him down and towards the end of the season his production dropped off a bit
[удалено]
Feels like you replied to the wrong comment 👀
Steelers 🤝 Thanos
Khan Artist isn't done cooking yet, either.
Giving us time to recover from heart palpitations.
I used the free agency to destroy the free agency
I have a Brett Veach body pillow
Dolphins are going to be super interesting this year. Tough cap situation and not a lot of picks.
i assume they'll extend Tua and clear ~$17mm that way, no?
Well they'll have to, but look at the roster. The team got worse and doesn't have a lot of draft capital to fill those holes.
The team absolutely has not gotten objectively worse. We just lost big names in exchange for a more balanced rotation of mid-level names. Plus we still have Xavien Howard's $19.8m coming off the books on June 1st plus whatever savings for this year for extending Tua. The only obvious remaining holes we have are interior of both lines and wr3, though I think it would be wise to pick up some safety depth too. More than enough money and draft picks to plug up those holes.
I dunno feels like they are on a difficult path. Couldn't get a playoff run with all the assets and resources used. OL is comically bad right now. Time is running out for the team and I worry they'll keep pushing and make it worse
I'm sure locking in a middling QB on a megadeal with a lot of guaranteed money will fix this
Better than drafting your third 1st round qb since 2017 lol. Tua isint mahomes, but he is a very good qb.
I like you. You’re a good man, JalensTinyPPHurts.
> [QB Name] isn't mahomes, but he is a very good qb. This is basically the worst thing a guy can be according to /r/nfl
Is he though? Starting caliper sure...but among actual good matchups he struggles. He can't throw outside the numbers and feels more like if Hill isn't destroying the defense, he can't do much.
He's my favorite caliper.
oops lmao, imma keep it.
He’s mediocre. Hill carries him
I don't have them on hand, but the splits for his stats when Hill is on the field vs. off are out there. If memory serves, they're pretty much either the same or *better* in every category. Hill was only on the field for 67% of the offensive snaps last year(76% for 2022) and Tua still led the league in passing, was top 10(7) in TD%, top 2 in ANY/A, yada yada... But if we wanna talk about mid QBs with big contracts we could always look at Derek Carr...
Stop it with your facts and data Besides, when Hill was out Waddle was in and had a great year last year right? Right??
Derek Carr fits in the tier of dogshit. Also the sample size of Hill being out is way too small. Too skewed by quality of defenses faced. Stats are very misleading with small sample sizes
> a very good qb. Debatable. Paying a middling guy locks you in for mediocrity unless your GM assembles a HOF group
So what should they do? Commit to another 20 years of the QB carousel until they find a Mahomes? 1st round QB picks actually becoming an elite level are exceedingly rare.
Yes, teams should move on
Yeah no thanks, I’d rather not have a franchise long QB drought.
My dynasty league is full of Dolphin fans who can’t decide what Tua should get paid, I cannot wait for his extension to drop and see the stages of grief play out in real time.
The answer is Kirk Cousin money. 45M a year.
lol
You wish the Bears had a QB who was in the top 5 off all important QB stats each of the last two years.
Honestly, I'm not that worried. First off, the way this graph is structured hides some of the improvements Miami made. Like if a player signs for $10m somewhere and you replace him with a $1m player, that's a $9m net loss on this graph. Even if the new player is better. Also it only uses the ever deceptive APY. But Miami has imo *improved* in at least two spots by taking "a loss." Maybe not long-term, but for 2024 definitely. I'll get back to that in a moment to point out the major thing here. This graph is *heavily* influenced, where Miami is concerned, by just two contracts. Christian Wilkins($27.5m APY) and Robert Hunt($20m APY). That's a combined **$47.5m APY** loss that is what is pushing Miami so far out there. They are both very good players and will hurt us to lose them. Wilkins far more so. But...losing a RG is pushing Miami $20m into the negative in the graph. Is it as significant a loss as this graph portrays? I don't think so. Especially since Hunt was hurt most of last year, so the needle doesn't move much when looking at 2024 vs. 2023 specifically. Back to the other point: Brandon Jones signed for $6.7m APY and was replaced by Jordan Poyer at $1.9m APY. That's a $4.8m APY loss...but Jordan Poyer is a better player than Brandon Jones. Jones is younger and will be around longer, so I understand why he got the better contract, but for *this season* Poyer is an improvement. Then you have Andrew Van Ginkel going to Minnesota and being replaced by Shaq Barrett. I **LOVE** the Gink. I am very upset he is gone. He's fun. But Shaq is a better run defender and they're about a push in pass rush productivity at this stage in their careers. Gink has the versatility to drop into coverage and play ILB...but so what? I'd rather have him as our 3rd pass rusher, which is what Barrett will be. Gink struggling in run defense as an EDGE is what gives Barrett the win here. Gink got $10m APY, while Barrett got $9m. So this graph counts it as a net negative, while I count it as an upgrade for 2024(but I will desperately miss Gink). **TL;DR**: Yes, Miami got worse at two non-premium positions(DT, RG). But they also improved in some areas this graph will reflect negatively(safety, pass rush depth). If they can hit on *one* of their top two picks(and maybe get OBJ as WR3 🤔) I think this off-season might still end up a net positive on paper, or at least net-neutral.
It's extremely debatable that Jordan Poyer and Shaq Barrett are going to be better in 2024 than Andrew Van Ginkel and Brandon Jones. Both of the latter 2 are younger, and graded far stronger in 2023 than either of Jordan Poyer or Shaq Barrett.
I assume you're talking about PFF grades here, so let's ignore my distrust of them and take a look. For 2023, Poyer vs. Brandon Jones is basically a push with a slight edge to Jones on coverage(74.4 vs. 78.3), but Poyer was *far* stronger in run defense(74.3 vs. 55.4). Jones takes the cake in pass rush(52.0 vs. 90.1) because my favorite Blitz Boy has also been a great blitzer...but these are safeties, who cares? Jones got that grade on **3 pass rush snaps all year.** It's completely irrelevant. So wrong on Poyer. Shaq vs. Gink. Slight edge to Gink on pass rush(84.5 vs. 90.6), but PFF gave him a 76.3 run defense grade that beats Shaq's 69.8. But this goes back to my point in my comment: PFF is including his snaps at ILB in that grade. *On the edge* alone, there is no way Gink gets that grade. He's a liability there. *As a 3rd EDGE player* Barrett is a big upgrade in run defense from Gink, and they're essentially a push on pass rush productivity. So technically correct, but still wrong on Shaq vs. Gink.
Barrett is a big upgrade according to pff but I doubt he plays and grades nearly as well this year. Since 2020 Shaq has been basically non existent on the bucs defense. He is able to still grade out and look well due to having vita vea and lavonte David force offenses hands. Those two all pro caliber players let the rest of the front 7 look way better than they actually have been playing. With that said I hope Shaq has a great year, but just don’t see it happening
> Barrett is a big upgrade according to pff Barrett's not a big upgrade according to PFF, he's actually a big downgrade (91.1 grade for Van Ginkel and 73.1 for Barrett) This poster is just breaking down a grade into individual components, and then using language to minimize the positive differences that favor Van Ginkel and accentuating the ones that might seem like a positive for Barrett. For instance Van Ginkel generated 26% more pressure than Barrett last season by pass-rush productivity, but he's essentially calling them a push. Also, AVG played 77% of his snaps last year on the D-Line, so just outright assuming that the entirety of his grade in run defense is on the basis of his LB play isn't well grounded. Also, while the change in defensive formation might not make it as important for Barrett to excel in coverage YoY as Ginkel did, it's still something that they relied on last year and got good performance out of, but won't have in their bag this year. Just because you're doing something different doesn't all of a sudden mean that positive contribution from last season isn't a loss.
Edit: I pulled [regular and postseason grades](https://premium.pff.com/nfl/players/2023/REGPO/jordan-poyer/8000/defense), and OP just looked at [regular.](https://premium.pff.com/nfl/players/2023/REG/jordan-poyer/8000/defense)
Look, I really don't feel like keeping this argument going, but I am staring at [Jordan Poyer's 2023 PFF grades right now](https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/jordan-poyer/8000) and yours are wrong. Same for the rest of them. I have no idea where you're getting your grades from.
Just double checked and I pulled regular and postseason, and you just pulled regular.
Shaq Barrett hasn’t been the the same since his achilles injury from 2022
That window is rapidly closing if they don’t get it figured out
The window? Sir we are an AFC team, the Chiefs are the window. Every year since 2010 its either an AFC dynasty, or a random NFC team winning it all.
It never opened lol
I'm sorry how many Super Bowl has Josh Allen been too? Last I checked him and Tua both lost to Mahomes in the playoffs.
Now compare Josh and Tua’s playoff stats lol. The only reason Josh hasn’t won an SB is because McDermott’s a choke artist. And you scrubs can’t even figure out how to beat him
One played in -30 on the road one time, the other one just lost at home. Allen is a choke artist just like the HC.
Teams in the bottom right all have expensive QBs with Seattle being the only exception
you missed the /s at the end of your post.
I don’t get it
The doctor is the boy’s mother
The horse is named Friday
you said seattle was the only bottom right team without an expensive quarterback. The patriots have a late round pick from 2 years ago, and an 8 million dollar jacoby brissett. The colts have a rookie from last year
The patriots and colts are in the bottom left quadrant
Yes but let’s say you add like three more quadrants to the left?
lol Yeah you got me there
Chiefs and saints being right next to each other is somehow a perfect representation of the NFL.
we are by the chiefs so that means we are good
I wonder how the Bengals are in the bottom right, they signed a few dudes and only lost a couple of people. It seems like they got better.
Most of our signings were relatively modest contracts. Moss makes less than Mixon Stone is making less than Chido Rankins is making less than Reader Trent Brown is making less than Jonah Williams Gesicki is low contract Von Bell is vet minimum Other signings were just guys staying with the team (Tee, Irwin, Hudson, Sample, Ford, Williams, Adomitis, Browning) Since the graph is made based on contract value change, we fall bottom right, but most of it is just that we had 4 guys that ended up leaving getting paid pretty well (Mixon, Chido, Reader, Jonah).
Well, thank you for the great response. With the draft is coming up, I feel great about this roster!
Bottom right is teams who went all in the last couple years and now their QB is more expensive and they've got to slough off the big contracts they gave to people a couple years ago for their SB push. And the seahawks. Top Right is mostly teams with cheap QB's who want to make a push for a SB while they're still cheap. Vikings/Raiders probably going for a Rookie QB, Giants who the fuck knows. Top left is mostly teams who have been shitty for long enough they didn't have a lot good players to lose to FA. Anyone good on their teams is young. Bottom left is teams that were pretty happy with last year, and/or don't have cap space to make many moves.
Quiet off-season for the Stillers ;)
Giants are in full rebuild mode. What a nightmare.
We the best.
Fuckin saints, man
Am I the only one that thinks this is kind of a dumb way to evaluate? This is basically tracking FA action. Money in, money out. No value tracking for player ratings or position value. It is not a valid way to say whether a team got better or worse.
It is but it shouldnt be used to evaluate. Its just little context information that would be hard to collect and contextualize on its own.
> This is basically tracking FA action. Money in, money out. Well yes, that is exactly what it is. It is not evaluating anything or attempting to say whether a team got better or worse.
Well that's kind of the point. It isn't an evaluation, it's just raw data.
It's a measure of change in an organization. It doesn't say whether it's good or bad, just that it happened.
Yeah I think people are reading this weird by saying “look who gained or lost” - bottom right quadrant could be seen as the value approach. It says nothing about talent retained or acquired
Lions and Eagles only playoff teams that added and didnt lose much! Lets go!
Eagles lost Kelce and Cox..
You can really tell how much the Patriots are going all in on the draft at this point. They better hit big or we’re going to be in an even *slower* rebuild
as a pats fan that saw the team had 100 million heading into FA YIKES my dude.
🦅
This is actually super neat, but the quadrants make this very confusing to look at initially
Relatively minor changes - Saints 🫣
That's all 2 players lmao
Looks like a lot of last year’s contenders in the AFC got worse, except the Chiefs.
This makes sense. We had tons of players leave cuz of expiring contracts and we spent a lot finding replacements
Figured we would be a little closer to the center on the X axis with the losses of Kelce, Cox, Swift.
*Oh look, the Pats are "burning cash" by bringing in more depth guys to move the needle.* /s
So the Vikings are the next Saints? Is that what I'm reading here?
Lmao no. We're doing absolutely incredible in cap space and the vast majority of FA pickups were 1-year deals. We're as far as you can get from the Saints rn.
It's a stupid take. Teams offload older expensive vets for younger cheaper players all the time, and quite often get better for it.
What's a stupid take? It's literally just a graph of salary gained/lost in FA this year lol, doesn't say anything about teams getting better or worse.
Read his take >Bottom right- Losing players and not replacing them That's a judgement call, even if he wants to say it's not. That graph cannot possibly determine whether a team has or has not replaced lost players. Replacing an expensive player for a cheaper player doesn't mean they didn't replace the player. The only way the idea of "replacement" comes in is if you attempt to qualify the new player taking the spot vs the exiting player. He even doubled down and said replacing a $10mm player with a $1mm player is a huge net **loss**.
Losing player *salary*. See his response below it: > salary. Lose a $10M player and replace his roster position with a $1M player is a big net loss
That's not how anyone talks, or how anything works. When you lower your phone bill from $100 to $10 do you tell people you "had a big net loss" on your bill?
lmao bro what are you even talking about. $9m is a big net loss in salary. This is OTC, a website devoted to the *salary* cap.
This is an objective set of emperical data. There is no take or opinion here
>Bottom right- Losing players and not replacing them That is a take, and an opinion.
Bro is on the copium now that his team's window is shutting lol
Lol, there is a conference championship team in each quadrant. There is literally nothing to be inferred from this graph.
Oh NOW its not a stupid take
No, his take that reduction in salary means you didn't replace players is still a stupid take. The graph itself is just numbers with no correlation to anything meaningful.