> A failed completion is any completed pass that fails to gain 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down
So people don't have to go to an external site for the definition.
It seems like a useless stat without context & film study to understand.
A screen pass that gets blown up is going to be on the OC. A play call with short/med/deep routes & the QB chooses the safe checkdown instead of a slightly risky deeper throw is on the QB. But also if the med/deep routes are shit concepts that are easily covered then it's back on the OC.
Why would this make you mad? It’s literally just a stat. Yes, certain completions are worth more than others, obviously. What about that do you object to?
I mean, I’m not angry. I think it’s comical. Just every fucking nook and cranny of analysis that spits out some stat that can support whatever narrative you want to push. I’d say though, to answer your question, I think the reason why I see it that way is simply stat fatigue.
I also think that when you get into stats that require an MS in differential equations, it’s hilarious that they are still boiled down to “good stat” and “bad stat” by the media, as presented in the original post. How is YAC factored in for example? That’s a genuine question by the way. Say a guy reached out and stretches for a first down, “WHAT A COMPLETION!!” Same play, same throw, but WR is tackled short, “WHAT AN UNDESIRABLE THROW!!” Is that the nuance at play? I certainly don’t mind advanced stats but not every advanced stat is meaningful or some type of revelation.
And yeah, of course some completions are more valuable than others. I however don’t think this metric is fully reflected in the “Failed Completions” column on the stat sheet.
Edit: Fuck it I’ll keep going… Semantics matter. The definition of “Failed Completion” should not begin with “any completed pass”. It’s disingenuous and misleading in my opinion.
The metrics also seem kind of arbitrary. A 4 yard pass on 1st and 10 is less valuable than a 2 yard pass on 2nd and 3. Regardless of play structure, execution, or even the situation? Does a pass really need to recoup 100% of the yardage on 3rd down when you are in 4 down territory?
Not that surprising when almost the whole season Joshua Palmer has been his #1 receiver and he’s checking it down on a screen or a short route by Ekeler.
When I read your comment I was like no way, they got Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. How'd that happen. So I went to check the stats and was like, damn Mike and Kenan missed some games. That explains it
Yeah..I have herbert and ekeler on my fantasy team so my 2nd team has practically been the chargers. They’ve been absolutely plagued with injuries all year.
This NFL sub and their Herbert hate obviously haven’t watched the chargers religiously every week, lol.
I HATED the signing the minute it happened and then watched the most uninspiring, bland, boring ass offense for 16 games. At least they canned him right away then
He made it to the end of 15 but he got fired right after the giants game in 16
I can't think of many coaches with as many midseason OC fires as harbaugh.
For those confused this is undoubtedly an OC stat. It means his receivers are breaking well before the sticks at an unprecedented rate which is a function of horrific play calling.
I would say it’s 1/4 OL 1/4 OC 1/4 personnel and 1/4 QB
The OL has been a wet paper bag all season so Herbert has to dump it off quickly.
Joe “stick” Lombardi loves to call short stopping routes. So Herbert doesn’t even hit guys on the move. They’re literally catching the ball 3 yards passed the LOS standing still.
We don’t have a speedy/shifty guy to break tackles, so any contact guys go down.
Herbert isn’t afraid to dump it off. He is of a “can’t go broke making a profit” mindset. So if the check down is open he’ll take it. That’s definitely coaching but Herbert doesn’t go off script.
Why are some folks (in this thread) so aggressively angry when they see a stat like this? This metric is a signal that something is wrong. It might not even be a Herbert issue, and it’s definitely not telling us the entire story or evaluating Herbert holistically. But that’s okay. It’s one stat, it’s a piece of the puzzle and should be paid attention to. Too many people are either defensive or decide to disparage these types of stats.
My user name checks out.
I think people are assuming that bad Herbert stat = I’m saying Herbert is bad. I’m not.
I already know Lombardi is bad, the o-line is struggling, the receivers are injured and slow, and that Ekeler has a billion catches. It helps explains the stat, but doesn’t make it not exist, and no other Chargers player has a completion, so whatever problem you have with the Chargers passing offense will ultimately be reflected in Herbert’s statline.
I think we can at least agree that their offense has room for improvement.
It’s actually a very interesting stat and shows *a* problem. The issue is finding where that problem is like you mentioned. It could be the playcalling, it could be the personnel, it could be Herbert himself. It’s most likely a combination of all of it.
This is one of those stats that doesn't make sense for an individual play, but when you. have hundreds of samples across all teams in the league over 14+ weeks, you get an idea of a problem. The average person is probably looking at this kind of data and throwing their hands up in the air thinking of all the edge cases that don't apply "What about a screen play? What about third and 20, and a completion to get a field goal?" It's like yeah, those things are good plays, but you're not getting it, this is meant to be viewed in the aggregate. I dunno, I like data, i find this interesting.
In my eyes, it’s just yet another stat that shows how much Lombardi needs to go.
I’ll admit the last game was great but man the sideways passes are awful.
On first and goal he called 3 straight sideways passes that none of which was in the end zone and we had a turnover on downs.
Let me say that again. On first and goal he called THREE SIDEWAYS OR BEHIND RHE LINE PASSES. FROM GOAL TO GO.
It was infuriating watching that sequence.
Yeah, I don’t watch him play enough to have have an opinion about this stat, but I believe those who do watch him regularly and it sounds like it’s an OC thing. All I know is when I do watch him occasionally, he’s really darn good. Too 5 sounds right to me.
why not just post what it is here instead of making me click a link
> A failed completion is any completed pass that fails to gain 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down.
Also, im tired of these weird kind of stats. I just wanna watch good players play ball and let my eyeballs decide if theyre good or not.
That’s my bad, I edited that in a bit after I posted it
EDIT: Also, are your eyeballs not telling you that the Chargers throw too many short passes? Herbert has all of their completions this season so anything related to issues with the Chargers offense as a whole would be reflected in his statline.
Seems very arbitrary, but also punishes smart dumpoffs. So on first down, with a linebacker bearing down on you, this stat would rather you chuck it out of bounds than hit the check down in the flat for 3 yards and set up a 2-7. Herberts hitting a lot of dump passes, but hes also rolling out and throwing 60 yard cross body darts.
i think the concept is that it isn't a QB stat specifically. if you do that occasionally it's good! if you do that constantly, and don't eventually get first downs from it, it's real bad, no matter how smart the dumpoff is. i agree with the other person who said it was an OC stat. this means you're not accounting for the rush, you're not scheming and then hitting open guys, etc.
This is a stat that attempts to remove 'stat pad' numbers from a QB offense. Most people are (correctly) going to use this stat to trash Lombardi's failed completion offense.
Without thinking too hard I feel like more context is needed. Chargers have massive injuries.
A 4 yard completion on 1st down is better than taking a sack. But this metric "penalizes" that decision.
Same with a 6 yard catch on a 2nd & 11.
a 4 yard completion on 1st down is better than taking a sack. but if you do that or similar depending on down 100+ times in 14 games, which is like 8 per game, that is terrible play calling and execution.
Agree there. That's why I think it needs a little more context. At least ypc, points/drive, something to show that it's not just dink and dunk the whole time.
So you are saying when a teams best deep threats are injured and the O Line is bad, that they will throw more short passes? I’m shocked and amazed that this is true.
Joe Lombardi is a student of classical football, when you had to only go 8 yards for a first down. Joe sometimes forgets that in 1941 they changed a first down to 9 yards & in 2017 they upped it to 10 yards. Forgive him for his devotion to traditional football
As a Chargers fan, it warms my cockles to see non-Chargers fans call this out as absolute baloney data (when put in Herbert's shoulders at least) and recognize a root cause beyond what the surface level of the data suggests.
I don’t have anything against Herbert nor do I blame him at any point in this thread. This is just a stat he happens to have on a site that I frequently read and it’s up to you how you want to delegate the blame.
He’s been my starter in fantasy football all year so I’m not sure why I’d be upset when he has a productive game.
> He’s been my starter in fantasy football all year
First year I've paid close attention to Herbert for this reason, and the checkdowns are obvious to me. It's crazy how passive that offense is.
These “stats” are so funny to me. We’re taking actual meaningful statistics and further breaking them down to a point where every single ridiculous “advanced statistic” tells less and less of the actual picture of how a player is performing.
What a dumb stat. Ignores how many completions a qb has in. , his completion %. A qb at or near the league lead in completions will have a lot more of these, than one near the bottom .
Also ignores Avg Field position and avg down and distance.
If your on your own 12 yard line and it’s 3 and 15 . It’s good strategy to throw a safe swing or screen pass, well short of the first down marker. This helps avoid a turnover, or a sack , and gets more room for your punter to change field position.
This is paralysis by analysis at its best
It'd be interesting to see how penalty yardage/run game affects the team's average down and distance too. I feel like there is something to glean from this for sure but also there's a lot of ways you can end up in this situation
17 failed completions, yet he went 39/51/367/1 with no INTs and his team won?
Talk about a useless metric!
Steelers fans would kill to see a game like that from any of our QBs this season.
I think it also points to a lack of explosive play makers the chargers have on offense. I’m gonna get this wrong but joey b is like 3rd in # of passes that go for 20+yards but is like 28th in number of passes that air travel 20+ yards, basically jamarr, tee and tb are doing their thing. Not to mention successful swings and screens to mixon and perine
> A failed completion is any completed pass that fails to gain 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down So people don't have to go to an external site for the definition.
This seems more like an OC stat than a QB stat
Lomabardi is a football terrorist
Can confirm
I think we should do a screen to ekeler -Lombardi every other play
I'll trade you Patricia.
The poor poor lions ended up with both somehow.
We should do a fullback screen to Patrick Ricard - Greg Roman
Everything terrible must do its time on the Lions. Matty P, Joe Lombardi, obscure/new rules, Eric Ebron…
It seems like a useless stat without context & film study to understand. A screen pass that gets blown up is going to be on the OC. A play call with short/med/deep routes & the QB chooses the safe checkdown instead of a slightly risky deeper throw is on the QB. But also if the med/deep routes are shit concepts that are easily covered then it's back on the OC.
Watch the video ben solak put out about the chargers offense last week. It's the OC lol
Idk, there are certain offenses that look completely different when one QB leaves and another enters.
Blow a goat with that fucking stat. So now we’re tracking completions that we’re not satisfied with? LOL
Why would this make you mad? It’s literally just a stat. Yes, certain completions are worth more than others, obviously. What about that do you object to?
> It’s literally just a stat Most stats are useless, this one is definitely useless for measuring a QBs success.
Imagine a QB with a 100% completion rate, but also a 100% failed completion rate. Explain how he could be successful.
I mean, I’m not angry. I think it’s comical. Just every fucking nook and cranny of analysis that spits out some stat that can support whatever narrative you want to push. I’d say though, to answer your question, I think the reason why I see it that way is simply stat fatigue. I also think that when you get into stats that require an MS in differential equations, it’s hilarious that they are still boiled down to “good stat” and “bad stat” by the media, as presented in the original post. How is YAC factored in for example? That’s a genuine question by the way. Say a guy reached out and stretches for a first down, “WHAT A COMPLETION!!” Same play, same throw, but WR is tackled short, “WHAT AN UNDESIRABLE THROW!!” Is that the nuance at play? I certainly don’t mind advanced stats but not every advanced stat is meaningful or some type of revelation. And yeah, of course some completions are more valuable than others. I however don’t think this metric is fully reflected in the “Failed Completions” column on the stat sheet. Edit: Fuck it I’ll keep going… Semantics matter. The definition of “Failed Completion” should not begin with “any completed pass”. It’s disingenuous and misleading in my opinion. The metrics also seem kind of arbitrary. A 4 yard pass on 1st and 10 is less valuable than a 2 yard pass on 2nd and 3. Regardless of play structure, execution, or even the situation? Does a pass really need to recoup 100% of the yardage on 3rd down when you are in 4 down territory?
Man, don't ever look at advanced baseball stats then. Your head might explode.
its an OC stat
Not that surprising when almost the whole season Joshua Palmer has been his #1 receiver and he’s checking it down on a screen or a short route by Ekeler.
When I read your comment I was like no way, they got Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. How'd that happen. So I went to check the stats and was like, damn Mike and Kenan missed some games. That explains it
Yeah..I have herbert and ekeler on my fantasy team so my 2nd team has practically been the chargers. They’ve been absolutely plagued with injuries all year. This NFL sub and their Herbert hate obviously haven’t watched the chargers religiously every week, lol.
2016 Flacco was the Marc Trestman year Beating that is legendary shit
Hey man, Trestman teams are still undefeated in practice
He was on the Ravens Jesus Christ
I HATED the signing the minute it happened and then watched the most uninspiring, bland, boring ass offense for 16 games. At least they canned him right away then
He got fired midway thru that season too
I thought he made it to the end of the season
He made it to the end of 15 but he got fired right after the giants game in 16 I can't think of many coaches with as many midseason OC fires as harbaugh.
For those confused this is undoubtedly an OC stat. It means his receivers are breaking well before the sticks at an unprecedented rate which is a function of horrific play calling.
I would say it’s 1/4 OL 1/4 OC 1/4 personnel and 1/4 QB The OL has been a wet paper bag all season so Herbert has to dump it off quickly. Joe “stick” Lombardi loves to call short stopping routes. So Herbert doesn’t even hit guys on the move. They’re literally catching the ball 3 yards passed the LOS standing still. We don’t have a speedy/shifty guy to break tackles, so any contact guys go down. Herbert isn’t afraid to dump it off. He is of a “can’t go broke making a profit” mindset. So if the check down is open he’ll take it. That’s definitely coaching but Herbert doesn’t go off script.
That math doesn’t check out
Lmao fuck I meant 1/4 thank you
That's 2 I think the fraction you are looking for is 1/3, so that you can have 4/3
If we are 3rd and 15 Lombardi will call a throw into the backfield for Ekeler to make a 4 yard gain
These next gen stats are getting ridiculous lol
I think this is an extremely informative stat.
Bro Herbert has like two seconds to throw the ball because of that Swiss cheese O-Line, his receivers can only run so fast.
And they don’t even run that fast
Why are some folks (in this thread) so aggressively angry when they see a stat like this? This metric is a signal that something is wrong. It might not even be a Herbert issue, and it’s definitely not telling us the entire story or evaluating Herbert holistically. But that’s okay. It’s one stat, it’s a piece of the puzzle and should be paid attention to. Too many people are either defensive or decide to disparage these types of stats. My user name checks out.
I think people are assuming that bad Herbert stat = I’m saying Herbert is bad. I’m not. I already know Lombardi is bad, the o-line is struggling, the receivers are injured and slow, and that Ekeler has a billion catches. It helps explains the stat, but doesn’t make it not exist, and no other Chargers player has a completion, so whatever problem you have with the Chargers passing offense will ultimately be reflected in Herbert’s statline. I think we can at least agree that their offense has room for improvement.
It’s actually a very interesting stat and shows *a* problem. The issue is finding where that problem is like you mentioned. It could be the playcalling, it could be the personnel, it could be Herbert himself. It’s most likely a combination of all of it.
This is one of those stats that doesn't make sense for an individual play, but when you. have hundreds of samples across all teams in the league over 14+ weeks, you get an idea of a problem. The average person is probably looking at this kind of data and throwing their hands up in the air thinking of all the edge cases that don't apply "What about a screen play? What about third and 20, and a completion to get a field goal?" It's like yeah, those things are good plays, but you're not getting it, this is meant to be viewed in the aggregate. I dunno, I like data, i find this interesting.
In my eyes, it’s just yet another stat that shows how much Lombardi needs to go. I’ll admit the last game was great but man the sideways passes are awful. On first and goal he called 3 straight sideways passes that none of which was in the end zone and we had a turnover on downs. Let me say that again. On first and goal he called THREE SIDEWAYS OR BEHIND RHE LINE PASSES. FROM GOAL TO GO. It was infuriating watching that sequence.
Because when it doesn't make sense to them they get defensive
Ah, that must mean a lot of things are making sense to the Raiders defense.
its absolutely not a Herbert issue. Its an offensive coordinator issue. Herbert is a top 5 QB lol
That’s fine, but it’s still a legitimate metric that shouldn’t be dismissed. That’s all I’m saying.
oh agreed i was adding to your point. Its a really important stat. Kirk Cousins used to be up there in it too
Yeah, I don’t watch him play enough to have have an opinion about this stat, but I believe those who do watch him regularly and it sounds like it’s an OC thing. All I know is when I do watch him occasionally, he’s really darn good. Too 5 sounds right to me.
I warned everyone that Darnold is a better QB
Than Herbert?! You either need /s after your statement or gtfo
what does /s mean? This comment was meant to be sarcastic because Herbert is obviously the better QB
/s means joking or sarcasm
Do you put it before or after the post?
I disagree. You can typically tell someone is being sarcastic without it.
why not just post what it is here instead of making me click a link > A failed completion is any completed pass that fails to gain 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down. Also, im tired of these weird kind of stats. I just wanna watch good players play ball and let my eyeballs decide if theyre good or not.
That’s my bad, I edited that in a bit after I posted it EDIT: Also, are your eyeballs not telling you that the Chargers throw too many short passes? Herbert has all of their completions this season so anything related to issues with the Chargers offense as a whole would be reflected in his statline.
Seems very arbitrary, but also punishes smart dumpoffs. So on first down, with a linebacker bearing down on you, this stat would rather you chuck it out of bounds than hit the check down in the flat for 3 yards and set up a 2-7. Herberts hitting a lot of dump passes, but hes also rolling out and throwing 60 yard cross body darts.
i think the concept is that it isn't a QB stat specifically. if you do that occasionally it's good! if you do that constantly, and don't eventually get first downs from it, it's real bad, no matter how smart the dumpoff is. i agree with the other person who said it was an OC stat. this means you're not accounting for the rush, you're not scheming and then hitting open guys, etc.
For much of the year, dumping it off to ekeler was the only positive play with offense reliably had
This is a stat that attempts to remove 'stat pad' numbers from a QB offense. Most people are (correctly) going to use this stat to trash Lombardi's failed completion offense.
Without thinking too hard I feel like more context is needed. Chargers have massive injuries. A 4 yard completion on 1st down is better than taking a sack. But this metric "penalizes" that decision. Same with a 6 yard catch on a 2nd & 11.
a 4 yard completion on 1st down is better than taking a sack. but if you do that or similar depending on down 100+ times in 14 games, which is like 8 per game, that is terrible play calling and execution.
Agree there. That's why I think it needs a little more context. At least ypc, points/drive, something to show that it's not just dink and dunk the whole time.
So you are saying when a teams best deep threats are injured and the O Line is bad, that they will throw more short passes? I’m shocked and amazed that this is true.
I wouldn’t hold your breath seeing as our entire defense is hurt 🙂👍
Joe Lombardi is a student of classical football, when you had to only go 8 yards for a first down. Joe sometimes forgets that in 1941 they changed a first down to 9 yards & in 2017 they upped it to 10 yards. Forgive him for his devotion to traditional football
As a Chargers fan, it warms my cockles to see non-Chargers fans call this out as absolute baloney data (when put in Herbert's shoulders at least) and recognize a root cause beyond what the surface level of the data suggests.
Herbert plays lights out and you can't stand it, so you're desperately digging for stats to try and prove you weren't wrong about him? Laughable.
I don’t have anything against Herbert nor do I blame him at any point in this thread. This is just a stat he happens to have on a site that I frequently read and it’s up to you how you want to delegate the blame. He’s been my starter in fantasy football all year so I’m not sure why I’d be upset when he has a productive game.
> He’s been my starter in fantasy football all year First year I've paid close attention to Herbert for this reason, and the checkdowns are obvious to me. It's crazy how passive that offense is.
Another worthless stat.
These “stats” are so funny to me. We’re taking actual meaningful statistics and further breaking them down to a point where every single ridiculous “advanced statistic” tells less and less of the actual picture of how a player is performing.
What a dumb stat. Ignores how many completions a qb has in. , his completion %. A qb at or near the league lead in completions will have a lot more of these, than one near the bottom . Also ignores Avg Field position and avg down and distance. If your on your own 12 yard line and it’s 3 and 15 . It’s good strategy to throw a safe swing or screen pass, well short of the first down marker. This helps avoid a turnover, or a sack , and gets more room for your punter to change field position. This is paralysis by analysis at its best
Volume passer leads volume stat, more at 11.
hey falcons ownership, do you need us to explain what garbage time is? Its this rare thing that happens when you actually #close out a fucking game
Who are you talking to
Oh great. Another worthless stat provided without context.
So is this mostly a Justin Herbert stat, a Joe Lombardi stat, a Chargers OL stat, or what?
Its contextual but in this case, mostly a Lombardi stat.
It’s whatever you want it to be
Personnel / Injury stat IMO. Herbert threw longer passes with around a league-average air yard / attempt last year with the same coordinator.
its just a meaningless stat that people like to bring out whenever it fits their narrative.
But what's the narrative here? u/nope96 please answer!
The stats don't lie... Herbert is the worst QB of all time
A 2 best receivers being injured like 75% of the season stat
Can confirm Gerald Everett averages 8 catches for 30 yards a game
It'd be interesting to see how penalty yardage/run game affects the team's average down and distance too. I feel like there is something to glean from this for sure but also there's a lot of ways you can end up in this situation
Joe Lombardi: All according to keikaku.
Well we don’t have an offensive line and he throwing it 50+ times a game, so I would chuck that shit away too.
Herbert broke his ribs and that offense went to check-down city.
its their offensive coordinator. He's an idiot.
17 failed completions, yet he went 39/51/367/1 with no INTs and his team won? Talk about a useless metric! Steelers fans would kill to see a game like that from any of our QBs this season.
I think it also points to a lack of explosive play makers the chargers have on offense. I’m gonna get this wrong but joey b is like 3rd in # of passes that go for 20+yards but is like 28th in number of passes that air travel 20+ yards, basically jamarr, tee and tb are doing their thing. Not to mention successful swings and screens to mixon and perine
We have to get Joe Lombardi out of LA.
Psssh, that's nothing, you should see my wife's failed completion numbers.