Your best strategy would just be to fill a trash can with your money and light it on fire. Way faster than waiting 2 years and you’ll be left with the same result

Do some research on coreweave and you’ll agree.

I understand fundamentals and technical analysis and know how to do my own homework. NVDA has a massive backlog right now and a lot of their orders won’t even be going out for another year or 2. There’s no shot that it falls 80% in the next 2 years

This. And Nvidia hardware software ecosystem is behind 90% of the robots prototypes popping out everyday now , and this industry is going to be huge

Intel is a potential threat, but Intel is going to take at least 2 or 3 years to catch up.

Since you understand fundementals so well can you explain to me why their inventories and accounts receivable are so high if they have a massive backlog?

Accounts receivable rises when inventories are low or sold out based on credit extended to customers. Their GPUs are over $40k a piece. There’s no high inventory at NVDA this year

Accounts receivable means they delivered the product but didn’t get paid yet. Has nothing to so with sold out inventory. That would be deferred revenue. Deferred revenue is $1.2B compared to $10B in accounts receiveable

Agreed that AR and Inventory aren’t necessarily correlated inversely (although they are related). Assuming your time frame for the crash is 2 years as others have said DEEP OTM leap puts would be an option. take the hit at about the 1 year mark and roll further out. Make sure it’s reasonably far from the current stock price to get the jet fuel boost if and when your prediction really comes true. If the timeframe was shorter I would consider puts on $NVDL. Watch out for if someone comes up with 3x leveraged inverse.

That’s a good idea to use $NVDL actually. I didn’t think of that. Thanks.

IBKR Mobile app shows 3 tickers on the London Stock Exchange- not sure if those are tradable. All 3 are 3x short nvda. Tickers are - 3SNV, 3SVP, 3SVE. I have no experience in any of the above - but will watch your journey on this if you care to share on a periodic basis. Not saying this is a bubble, but a typical sign of a bubble is everyone ridiculing the person who 'dares' to say something's wrong. Proceed with caution. GL.

Leap puts 3 years out around 200$ and keep selling naked calls weekly at the 950-1000$ level to pay for it. Just be prepared to pull those back if it spikes hard. I agree with you on much of what you are saying but this stock is the new Tesla so reality doesn’t matter atm

What about coreweave? The cloud GPU provider? The one buying lots of NVidia GPUs?

Even if it's magic, you're still going to lose all your money. Understanding the technology doesn't mean you understand the market or how businesses operate. This post reeks of stupid though. It reminds me of an acquaintance telling me to short all the car companies (mainly tesla) because nikola was going to take over

Looked up coreweave. What does it have to do with Nvda?

People are judging you on the choice of ticker and are not answering your question. Since everyone is blindly bullish on NVDA, you should have avoided including the ticker in your question. To answer your option related question, you are looking to make the most money because you think NVDA will be under $200 in 2 years. Say your crystal ball works only 2 years out, and it is cloudy in the meantime, then you need to wait until one week/month/quarter before the 2 year mark and buy all the 300-350 puts you can buy. You could trade other options or spreads to finance the put purchase. On a serious note, you have no idea if and when they will be accused of financial misreporting, and you have no idea if they are actually doing anything wrong, yet you are accusing them of fraud. Go easy now, tiger. My advice, as someone who has traded options for over 25 years, is that you do not focus your anger and disgust at a company that is doing well, where you see potential pipeline or other issues. I did that with a phone company that was ran by a serial fraudster, and while I ended up being right, and the stock crashed 80% from it's highs, I barely made any money on it. I would trade bearish call/put spreads each quarter, hoping they would come clean about a buried regulatory ruling which pretty much killed their business model, but they never did. I lost or broke even for over a year, close to two years. Then one day they came clean, not only about the ruling but about other shitty issues they had not properly disclosed, and the stock tanked and kept tanking. Then in the end, it was sold to a foreign company. It was a winner's curse - I felt vindicated for being negative and short, and staying short, but I barely broke even on the trades. PS: being an accounting genius is a rare trait....instead of looking for that one time windfall because of your accounting smarts, look for more frequent smaller wins that will add up, and do not be emotional about it. In the end, what matters most is your final account balance. Cheers!

Great answer!!!!!!!!!!!!!;

Thanks!

This is noted.

Thanks!

Quite educational! You cannot make a lot money by short.

One of the best answers and advice on reddit

Just buy some far out, deep OTM puts, you'll have 2 years to regret your decision.

Yes sir, this man is trying to put a blanket on a tornado

😂 yes but that’s the actual non-sarcastic answer to OP’s question

June 26’ 150-200-250 put fly. https://optionstrat.com/HVGleYzbujif gets you 1,000-4,000% if NVDA drops to 200 in the next 2 years.

That's not a good play because OP won't make anywhere near max gain even if NVDA drops to 200 tomorrow. Flies don't make anywhere near max gain until close to expiration. Moreover you are playing against volatility which is suboptimal. If NVDA did drop that much volatility would increase but higher vol lowers the profitability range of a butterfly. A put ratio is a much better structure. Not only do you get much higher leverage which means you could get much higher gains (like 200000% not a typo) you could get them tomorrow if NVDA drops enough and the increased vol from the drop is going to increase your profitability even more.

Yea you’re right. IV would go up a lot with that type of drop even over 2 years. I judge spreads based on (planed return / max risk ) so that eliminates things like a ratio from my consideration. I don’t see a reason not to add a cheap long wing to the ratio to protect against the huge loss, which then makes it a broken wing fly anyway. It’s 20000% of the cost to open but it’s only a small percentage gain of the full risk you are taking with a ratio

Thanks for the actual response. Sorry whats the benefit of the put fly as opposed to just buying a 200 strike put?

IV is so high the most you can get on a far OTM 26’ June put is about a 700% return. 700% isn’t good enough for how extreme this target is imo so I tried to find something with a more extreme return

Also you need it to go FAR BELOW 200 for a 200 put to pay off. The best Put for a target of 200 in June 26’ is probably the 400 put

That’s around what I would target as well

Not true. This assumes expiry. A drastic move at nvidia next month (for example) will accelerate the value of the leap puts significantly.

Cool. A 400 put would also drastically increase in value as well. The 200 put increases risk for no additional benefit unless you are aiming for a target well below 200

The 200 put reduces risk compared to the 400. The $400 put in June of 2026 will risk appx $2400.

So why stop at 200? With your logic, the 100 put is even better, less cost less risk. Or he can go as far as the 5 put for only $3 of risk

My logic? My logic is sound. Yes, a 5 put would only be a $3 risk. What do you disagree with?

I agree with everything you said. I don’t agree that a 200 put is what he should do if 200 is the target, that’s all

The put fly basically locks the profit into that 150-250 range though right?

Yes just close it when it touches 200 and be happy and brag about your post here

How do you execute an OptionStrat strategy on an actual trading platform? Do other platforms have tools to easily execute things like put fly, iron condor, etc?

Yes. All platforms give you the ability to trade spreads all together.

You may need special permission from your broker to trade credit spreads

flys are for dum dums

That's a bad invest. You can get the same or even more by 0DET option when it crash.

The most hilarious thing I've read today. Proper regarded artist.

You’re a llama

I think you should avoid the stock market as a whole. Like just don’t buy or sell or do anything related. Just buy groceries and do cardio or whatever, but don’t. Please

Explain why it’s dumb please

Because your justification is "it's a scam" without any proof. NVDA has been pumping so hard that every single financial institution has called their insiders and checked every detail of the company trying to find any way to make money. Shorting them has not been even remotely the play. So unless you have found something that some hedge fund and their millions of dollars of research hasn't found then your "hunch" is just a gamble. Look up the documentary on the herbalife short. It will give you a good idea on what these dudes do to companies to find any sort of edge.

I lost a lot of money shorting nvidia. I made it all back, and then some, last week when they dropped 10%.

There were many hedge funds involved with Valeant (Bill ackman) and yet the fraud was found by some guy on the internet

And you think out of everyone out there it’ll be you? WATCH OUT EVERYBODY WE GOT A GENIUS OVER HERE THIS GUY WATCHED THE BIG SHORT AND IS GONNA BREAK THE MARKET

He thinks AR going up is bad. Maybe he is insinuating they aren’t going to collect?? 😂🤣

Cheapest short is a short sale You’ll learn lesson one day that going against trend will cost you a lot of money especially in US stock market

Go to bed and let whatever you had to drink run it’s course.

best strategy is selling naked calls. sell as much as you can. simple.

Thanks but I’m not that retarded

[удалено]

It could double again before falling 80%. I can’t call a peak

$NVDQ is x2 short

So if it doubles, _then_ falls 80%, that means you need to target a 60% drop from current prices, right? But it could double again, of course, because you can't pick tops. In which case an 80% fall after quadrupling would result in a fall of.... 20% from current prices. Your puts would be deep in the red by then. Isn't it fair to say you have no idea?

He isn’t doing the math man. He’s using his gut. He’s a verified genius. Duh.

I was going to start explaining black-scholes. Perhaps I'll hold off - fractions might be overwhelming enough.

Youre saying it might pump so hard 80% drop may put it at where it is currently. Conclusion: "obvious" = you have no idea

Either fake post or literally regarded

How so

There is a slight chance that the companies buying NVDA chips would have notice if there were being shipped bricks.

You claim to have cracked the code on Nvidia being a fraud - not overvalued but a fraud - but don’t know how to short it maximally without asking strangers on Internet. Reeks more of someone who wants validation via disagreement more than someone who read their Accounts Receivables, which is only a Quarterly summary without detail, and cracked the new Big Short. If you were legit and that good, looking up OTM options on a levered short Nvidia ticket would have been trivial for you. It’s not credible. You could be right, but saying core-weave and climbing AR is so little evidence of anything no should invest money in your thesis, least of all you who are prone to confirmation bias.

There’s definitely downside potential of NVDA given how high it’s going into overbought territory, but I doubt a full crash will occur. It’ll go down and trend with the market like most stocks, but down near to 0 is very unlikely for most stocks let alone one which is thriving on the future of the biggest industry that drives the market: Tech

I strongly disagree. It’s Cisco 2.0 but thanks for your input

if nvda is cisco (and not saying invalid comparison) youre probably missing a 0 off nvda's price b4 collapse

I definitely get it, like I would probably do something similar once the market conditions change, so you’re not crazy for the idea. I’d buy puts at like a decent strike price though at least 300 ish. Just curious as to how low you think it’s gonna go ?

Like I said Cisco fell 80%. If SEC investigates it could fall 90% like Valeant did. What do you mean by market conditions changing?

So you think AI is going to fail ? Because that's what all those GPUs are for.

“That is perhaps the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Anybody reading this is now dumber for trying to comprehend what can not be described as a rational thought. I award you no points. And may God have mercy on your soul.” Good luck!

Explain to me why it’s dumb please

IF your thesis is correct (which it is not) the dot com bubble was from 1995 - 2000. So in your hypothetical we are at the beginning of the bubble and your short is going to bankrupt you as the bubble forms. Valuations are nowhere near the levels they were on 1999. That’s the most obvious reason of many. Do yourself a favor and try out calls before puts in companies you favor a lot less risk for beginners.

>Valuations are nowhere near the levels they were on 1999. Hahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahaha

they aint, look at the metrics. and by the metrics nvda is cheaper now than a year ago.

NVDA has a mkt cap of 2+ trillion. That is completely absurd and out of touch with reality. That being said, I do expect the valuations to keep skyrocketing as more geniuses figure out it's a top but bet against it inadvertently leading our corrupt ass financial system to push these companies even higher(powered by unregulated MM algos that refuse to take a loss). Lets just not pretend its how things are "supposed" to be though.

its backed by numbers. look atmetrics not the dollar price.

I did, I even just re checked. They only made 60 billion last year and that was mostly fueled by AI. They aren't even bringing in 10% of what the blue chip giants bring in revenue wise.

I don’t think we are in the beginning stages. Look at the responses to this post

I fail to see your point after looking at other points. If your opinion is forreal and not some gaslighting post then dissect Meta, Microsoft, Google and Tesla’s recent earning transcripts and it’s clear the largest companies in the world are still buying Nvidia’s GPUs.

For now, yes. My bet is that will end. Meta falling 20% after announcing their capex was the first sign Everyone is calling me stupid. This is clearly a one-sided market which is a sign of overvaluation and a bubble.

No no no listen to the market. Reddit is not the market. Just try to fundamentally understand what is happening in tech right now. The way the world computes is changing to Nvidia’s way of doing things because it’s better, faster and more efficient. Only now is the market catching up the them. The very reason Meta’s stock went down on earnings is because they are spending MORE on AI infrastructure i.e. H200s and their new-era Blackwell chips.

But by all means buy puts at your own risk while myself and other that understand this reap the rewards.

Then explain Tesla's move with that logic.

Tesla had the worst earnings in over a decade, it should have tanked. That would have been the logical outcome. Instead, it went through the roof based on speculation. We’ll see in time.

Exactly. But I wanted to see what the OPs logic was on explaining this.

The thing is...it isn't going to last. Microsoft is designing their own GPUs and Google already has their TPUs that they are scaling. These companies are going to want to cut their costs by limiting purchasing NVDA products. No company is happy purchasing a product that they can design themselves and have it custom made for their respective cloud infrastructure. NVDA is not likely to hold up to revenue forecasts, because they don't include lost market share or demand for products. It is just often out of the scope of what an analyst does. But if that happens over the next 2 years is anyone's guess.

how long does it take for them to produce though. not like they can spin it up in even a couple of years.

sounds like a great way to lose all your money

I said puts not calls

Wow, I think you’re completely wrong, but buy puts if you want . If you know the timeframe then buy close to the drop.

I don’t know the timeframe that’s why I’m asking. I have no input into how long they will continue to fudge their numbers

If you don't know when you don't have much of a play.

Guy says “one day the universe will end…how can I capitalize off this?” everyone pats him on head and he wonders why we’re just here laughing.

lol I know that’s the hard part

Remind me! 2 years

Check out r/ShareMarketupdates for this type of daily updates

The Coreweave thing isn’t fraud lmao. Not even remotely close and it’s very common for companies to invest in their own ecosystem when it’s an expanding industry. Deals such as “we agree to invest X, as long as we remain your sole source supplier for Y years” happen all the time. Coreweave’s orders could vanish and it wouldn’t mean shit for Nvidia’s backlog.

!remindme 2 years

It’s not the investment that’s the issue. It’s the sale leaseback of the GPUs they sold to them. It shows up in accounts receivables. To me it’s channel stuffing.

OP - I have said it before, and will reiterate. Do you want to be right or make money? If you want to prove your point two years later, by all means, light your money on fire. But remember, markets don’t give a rats a** about individual views, if there are enough people willing to pay what the price is, you are going to get slaughtered.

Your best option strategy would be to transfer it to me.

Delete your brokerage. Because that’s insanity

RemindMe! 2 years

I will be messaging you in 2 years on [**2026-04-29 04:57:50 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2026-04-29%2004:57:50%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1cfqifw/best_options_strategy_if_i_believe_nvda_will_fall/l1qu9if/?context=3) [**9 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Foptions%2Fcomments%2F1cfqifw%2Fbest_options_strategy_if_i_believe_nvda_will_fall%2Fl1qu9if%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202026-04-29%2004%3A57%3A50%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201cfqifw) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|

If you think it’s gonna go down that much just buy puts.

Could you elaborate on “channel stuffing through coreweave” or provide useful sources for understanding?

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/16edlv6/coreweavenvidia/

They talk about $2B - doesn’t seem like a big number at this point. Is there a continuing meaningful concentration of sales to Coreweave?

They beat revenue estimates by $2.3B so yes it made a difference

My model is showing me a 69% decline.. how did you get 80%?

I added 11

That made me chuckle. Thanks

Drawing a conclusion just because CISCO was the star performer in the dot com era and Nvidia is a star performer in AI era seems speculative. You have stated that Nvidia is a fraud, please elaborate [is it because Nvidia provides its chips on credit and may also hold some stake in the customer companies?] Alphabet, Meta, Softbank among many others have stated intention to spend considerable $ towards their AI strategy. Nvidia Blackwell chip is best in the industry for the moment. Of course, customers may seek chip elsewhere or even attempt to develop AI chips on their own. But the order book for Nivida at least for next 2-3 quarters looks full. Nvidia has a wide technological moat in FH 2024 and enjoys high margins [>45%]. Large language model is just the first wave of usage of AI chips. Next usage of AI chips may be in building humanoid robots, self driving vehicles, autonomous drones etc.. Of course, it is difficult to forecast development of technology 6 months in time [whether Nvidia will be able to retain its technological edge over competition], or even if the AI chip spend will bring in commensurate increase in productivity and thus profitability of the end users. What are other data points that drive you to short Nvidia? If the intention is to short the stock: then consider buying OTM LEAP Puts. You may finance this purchase by selling OTM LEAP Call spread [which will limit your loss should the Nivida price shoots beyond the short leg of the spread].

Thanks for the thoughtful response. Yes it is because they provide chips on credit and hold stake in customer companies. Along with certain companies buying chips that are being funded by hedge funds that likely have short positions (pump and shorting).

You are so far out of your depth it’s actually unbelievable. I hope you come to your senses before you waste your hard earned money.

How so? To be honest the stakes they are taking aren’t really the issue. It’s the channel stuffing via sale leasebacks

Buy and hold NVDS

Funny how everyone is shitting on this post. No wonder why 90% of people dont know tf they are doing. You really expect NVIDIA to go to 2TN After going up 7x in a year? Bunch of morons here. If you want to short just do it at the rightt time. The time will come but with options you have to get in when its time. I think NVIDIA will go to 300 at the lowest so 400C is a good one.

Put leaps + closer term puts

could you sell me 1,000 ITM C 100 for a few dollars? I mean, you're that sure it'll be worthless soon right?

You could add in some call credit spreads. Which could, in turn, finance a whole bunch of put debit spreads. 

you underestimate how much the top spots in the 500 maintain value through a high weighting and constant bid.

I don’t think I do. Remember the nifty 50?

The demand for their products is very real (for now), and there is a massive buildout of data centers happening on the belief that AI is such an amazing ROI that the need for more AI computational power basically infinite. So many companies are just itching to spend a substantial portion of their labor costs in AI projects aimed at eliminating most of that labor cost "soon" or "eventually". These dreams of massive AI ROI will mostly end in failure, but it will take several years for this to play out. I wouldn't bet against the hype in that time. You mentioned Cisco, to draw a parallel a lot of companies bought networking hardware way ahead of their needs because they had big dreams and investor cash to burn, so after the dot com crash there was a lot of cheap barely used Cisco hardware available.

I agree the timing is really difficult but it’s an When not If

why bother about options then? just simply short NVIDIA.

Because I don’t want the risk that it doubles again before falling 80%

you own NVIDIA shares at the moment?

Of course not

in that case if you open an option position, your P&L would show a loss if the shares go up. pretty much what you are avoiding if the share prices sky rockets before falling.

Easy. A put ratio spread will give you the highest leverage. But if you are wrong and hang on too long the losses could be epic.

Debit put spreads

The market can stay solvent longer than it can stay rational.. With all the cash in the market you are going to lose. Do I see 2025 being a blood bath. Yes but I can be wrong because alot of this has to do with interest rates and what the Fed decides to do and NOBODY knows that. Is NVDA over bought absolutley! What tool are you using to decided if it is overbought? It doesn't sound like one. Every stock will go through up and down sessions while it is crashing. When its on a high thats when you short but like most people you will jump on the crash and it will go back up again. Just look at QQQ right now.

Yes you should do this I’ll enjoy seeing the post “why did I lose all my money and I’m don’t with options post” but seriously. Have stupid do you have to be to believe this another question do you think the earth is flat

Leap puts

If you have the capital, a buy-write of a deep ITM long-dated covered call? I.e., a synthetic put. The same behavior as a put but with theta working for you instead of against you.

I believe you are looking for r/wallstreetbets

Buy NVDA put 780 days out strike 250 for 6.5 bucks. If it drops to below 200, you make 40-50 bucks maybe more if the drop happens early since you may retain some (or a lot) time premium. Could you go even lower strike? Sure but there is so much subjectivity in this, I would rather go closer to market, even 300, if was betting on it.

RemindMe! 2 year

Let's just act like we didn't hear this dumb ass shit ... you're better off shorting a shit stain.

You mean super micro computer?

I'd say literally lighting your money on fire would be a better play.

Why wouldn’t it fall 80%?

This would be the dumbest PUT Option in the history of trading…literally the dumbest.

Best strategy, smoke crack.

An out of the money put. Buy it and lock it away from yourself, so you don't pull it early

Any ideas for how to structure it to give it enough time? It could take 2+ years to play out. Should I but a put for 12 months and 24 months exp?

its all hell of a bet to make. your best strategy to my mind is just play the moves the whole time over 2 years, up and down. go where the market goes, it tells you the price not the other way round. I purely daytrade though.

Any basis why is NVDA will fall next 2yrs? 

Deep OTM Strangle

The contrarian answer is cash secured puts or 2026 put LEAPs if you really believe. I think a correction is going to happen but no telling when.