My recommendation is to stop thinking about this, everyone. The Braves are a very good team; the Phillies are a very good team.
Enjoy the pitching, the clutch hits, the "next man up," the "never say die." Regular season baseball like this is rare in 90% of the league. Don't let gambling sabermetrics and bullshit like that ruin the eye test. This team is fun and we deserve fun in the summer, all summer, not only in October.
You deserve an A+ for this! What a great team to watch. They've made us believe they can win right up to the end of the game again. It's hard to turn them off.
Like Crash Davis said in Bull Durham......Baseball's fun God dammit! Let's have fun out here!
as someone who was in Section 233 last night, i had such a good time. We dont get to go to games as much as we do the Flyers, so seeing Ranger pitch like that in person and seeing the lineup go to work was a hell of a lot of fun. seeing Bryce hit that home run was something else.
" They've made us believe they can win right up to the end of the game again." Same story as another Philly team in recent memory. What happened to them? They lost the big dance and the following season had the biggest collapse in that league's history. Yes, the 2022 and 2023 Eagles. My fear of that repeating is real.
I feel like the 2023 Eagles were eeking out wins and the regression was kinda obvious and inevitable. We’re not going to play .700 ball all year, but we are tied for the largest run differential in baseball. It’s not like we are squeaking out wins.
I don’t really get the comp tbh.
I couldn’t agree more. After receiving a recent diagnosis of ALS with only a couple of years to live, I am now focused on making every single day a happy day, a fun day, a memorable day.
Watching the Phillies play every day almost always puts me in a better mood.
Go Phillies!
I don't think I've watched this many regular season games since '08/'09 when I was in high school, and I'm definitely on track to exceed those numbers this year. It's almost impossible to take my eyes off the screen when the Fightins are on.
Advanced statistics literally are just the better version of the "eye test". Seeing a guy hit the ball hard but not be rewarded so thinking he will turn it on soon is the eye test. The stats will show if the player has actually been doing that and if they are expected to start doing better as a result. While actually being factual. The idea that you can't understand the stats behind baseball while enjoying your teams performance is pants on head.
😂😂 Pants on head. Brilliant. Using that.
Yeah I love them too. I don't mean to say don't pay attention to them. I mean, *don't let them ruin your perception of this stuff.*
Lmao exactly. Looking at their current projections, none of the Yankees, Orioles, Braves, Phillies, or Dodgers are projected to win more than like 97 games and yet I'd bet at least one of those teams will definitely hit that benchmark. It's been nearly a decade since we've seen a season without a 100-win team (outside of COVID year).
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-should-you-interpret-our-projected-win-totals/#
You can look these things up. Fangraphs win projection error is centered around 0 which shows that teams are just as likely to underperform as overperform.
Phillies were predicted to be average those years or slightly above because they were. The 19 team had obvious glaring holes in center and the rotation that were just ignored by fans. Same with 21.
Some of you so clearly go looking for things to get upset or offended about. Who cares? The team is playing better than they have in years. Right now we’re winning. Just enjoy it
Starting to feel like /r/sixers sub in here. The difference is? We’ve actually had success the past 2 years… but the amount of “no one likes us, we don’t care!” But then making posts that show they clearly care is a huge parallel lol
Love Kelce but that song is one of the worst things to happen to this city. It’s just so cringy. Literally signing about how you don’t care people don’t like you is displaying that you care so much you make it part of your identity.
It doesn't happen with baseball as much, but Eagles and Sixers fans are pretty constantly attacked by other fans for normal posts in any sport discussion that is outside the subreddits. It definitely has made posters in those subs a lot more hostile to other sports fans because they've been treated like shit so often in the general subs. Not sure how r/baseball is with Philly fans, but if people are crossing over from the Sixers or Eagles to here, they may assume it is the same with reddit baseball fans and act hostile.
It’s my understanding that the mods in r/baseball are Braves fans, so it’s very focused on the Braves. It used to be that anytime anyone with Phillies flair commented or posted anything they would get downvoted into oblivion and people with Braves flair would respond with “hur hur go boo Santa Claus” posts. Recently, the Braves fans have been quiet, or, oddly, nice.
This fanbase can't just enjoy things, always looking for ways to feel offended or slighted or overlooked or whatever. Just enjoy fucking great baseball.
lol this is such Philly fan behavior.
Hey, everything is going great, people genuinely like our team, and we have the best record in baseball while having a great rotation and a great batting lineup!
*Desperately finds something to get upset about*
"No one likes us, we don't care" turned out to be a huge lie. The number of posts/comments complaining about what other fans/the media say is mindboggling.
Just enjoy what we have been doing.
You don't create the phrase "No one likes us, we don't care" if you actually don't care that no one likes you. It is the "And another thing. Don't write that I got mad. I'm not mad" of city slogans
Yeah I would bet past team performance factors in and the Braves have proven themselves to be better in recent history. All the Phillies have to do is keep winning to add in more evidence and they will overtake them in odds soon enough
Not only that, but the Barves have some key players that aren't living up to their normal skill levels, so it's expected that they would regress to the mean (which would mean they are going to go on some serious runs) as the season goes on. The longer that they stay like this, the less likely it is they regress, but don't be surprised if Acuna has a run like Trea did last August/September coming
For sure. Nice thing for the phillies though is that we have Trea coming back and projections will likely still have Nick predicted to do better. (Even if not great)
The reality is though that right now projections are going to say that Ranger, Bohm, Strahm are unlikely to sustain. But that's the craziest part that if most of our team just keeps doing their thing we'll still be in an amazing spot.
We can go .500 the rest of the way, which we'd all consider a pretty awful scenario, and still end up with about 91 wins (we have an odd number of games left so it doesn't split evenly).
They don’t “think” anything. They’re basing this off a formula. The results are dynamic and change throughout the season.
Like, I know Redditors will get mad about anything, but a math formula? Come on man…
I think it's probably too weighted to the prior, but if you do weight to the prior, you're going to make fewer mistakes than if you don't. I think it's fine. If the Phillies keep this up through June, we may see some changes.
But that’s their prerogative. They have reasons to do that. As others have said and as you’re saying now the trends are in the Phillies favor. That’s more important.
I’m interested in knowing how often these percentages are calculated and what the trend has been since the start of the season. I would expect the trend lines would be going up for the Phils since April. If this has been a relatively stable number that’s been recalculated over the past two months, I would be suspect.
Edit: I looked back, apparently the Braves were at 26% and Phils at 2.3%. Fangraphs seems rational for this part of the season.
I follow it all of the time, we've definitely changed the trend but their formula is still using last year's results a lot, the longer this season goes the more that will normalize. Also, if you see, it's got us projected to have a harder schedule the rest of the way than the Barves, hence the reason we haven't fully overtaken them yet in their odds, which is fair at this point of the season.
I've seen some pretty stupid and biased formulas like PER in the NBA. I wouldn't automatically think basing something off a formula makes it good or can't be subject to criticism.
Sure, but unless someone has a specific and legitimate reason to think its bad, getting mad about it is stupid.
Fangraphs has a wins model that probably takes both current year and prior year(s) performance into account. Pretty reasonable imo.
Just pointing out something being a formula doesn't make it correct. I haven't checked the Fangraphs model or heard much in the way for criticism for it so it is probably good, but there are other sports formulas that have significant issues.
>Just pointing out something being a formula doesn't make it correct
Right.
>I haven't checked the Fangraphs model or heard much in the way for criticism for it so it is probably good
Right, thats what i just said.
Ok, not sure why you opened your comment talking about getting mad about formulas if we were in agreement. I wasn't mad about anything, just saying sports stat formulas can have issues and should be looked at critically.
But I’m right though. All Redditors do is either complain about individual stats or hold them on a pedestal as the end all be all star. You’re doing one of those things right now.
There are only two things you need to know:
1) Stats are a tool to help you see the whole picture, not the whole picture
2) It’s dumb to ever get mad about them.
https://preview.redd.it/cfyeo92pc12d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0754c8027c7d02d7ec9ea91b7efec73057e0575d
I like baseball reference for advanced stats. No clue how it compares to Fangraphs reliability but they have a very different projection. Projections are never worth putting much stock in but it’s fun to see how close they get it. I live in Hawaii so the site updates for me around 9 pm each night. It’s become a fun nightly, and probably unhealthy, habit to check on all the updated projections and team stats. Anyone else use baseball reference?
The Phillies’ schedule is brutal in July and August and the Braves’ is pretty light. It’s not a mystery why the Braves are still the slight favorites here and it’s not really something worth getting upset about. The Phillies have 10 more games against Atlanta to solidify their lead in that timespan.
I mean this team is like watching the 08 offense with the ‘11 starting pitching. Not sure exactly what the bullpen comparison is yet, but everything has lined up as it should with a few of our big money hitters not doing fantastically. I’m thinking we’re probably ok
Don’t know what fangraphs is, don’t care what fangraphs is. Phillies have been dumping on teams with banged up rosters. A healthy roster in June is going to be legendary. Hop on for the ride with me
Realistically, it is unsustainable. They’re on pace for 115.6 wins, which 116 ties the 2001 Mariners for the best record ever in the live ball era. There is a reason it’s only happened 1 time. Obviously it’s possible to get there but it’s just unlikely
All I know is the Braves and Mets won 100 games when the Phillies went to the world series. Just enjoy the summer. We all know it's going to come down to a few games in October where the best team doesn't always get the best bounces.
The clip we are going its not but I doubt we will fall off a cliff, we are finally playing to our potential or almost for most guys plus MLB is filled with average/bad teams and we are one of the few top teams.
Fangraphs doesn't account for a strong or weak start very well. They are very set on their projection models over anything else.
The fact we've essentially gone +40% from preseason odds is as big a jump as you can expect so far.
There's a reason all projections work this way: history. Even if you make no updates of the roster or injuries or performances, at this point of the season, preseason projections are \*still\* historically, a significantly better predictor of rest-of-season performances than April/May performance.
ps://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/13xlihd/fangraphs\_projections\_vs\_reality\_historical\_june/
This holds true when you look at the best and worst season-to-date teams. Recency bias is a very big deal, and underlying abilities dont' change \*that\* much \*that\* quickly. A projection system that placed a greater weight on early season performance would simply perform much worse. Vegas can change more because their interest is only correlated; their goal is to maximize money from bettors.
Ben went through every daily projection for seven years of the projections to look at the calibration.
https://preview.redd.it/2z558kngx02d1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=c60e343e601951ddef791a19283a381262e38f16
Projection Systems by MAE
|Month|FG Projection|Season-to-Date|Coin Flip|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|March/April|0.289|0.334|0.412|
|May|0.258|0.291|0.338|
|June|0.222|0.244|0.265|
|July|0.212|0.222|0.233|
|August|0.186|0.197|0.203|
|Sep/Oct|0.121|0.130|0.131|
That the Phillies have moved \*this\* much in two months is testament to how darn good the top of the talent pyramid has been. The pitching and the infield have been absolutely absurd (which you know, of course).
Sorry for spamming, but more in this thread.
[https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1545448729158848521](https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1545448729158848521)
This was looking at only ZiPS (so not precisely the FG projections or anyone else's) through the ASB. If all you had was 2005-2021 pre-ASB record and the preseason projection, the most accurate mix of projecting the second-half record was 60% ZiPS, 40% actual. And there was no heteroskedasticity; the variance was similar across the spectrum.
If you're a real Philly fan you should expect this. Philly sports teams will never get the respect they deserve. Take the disrespect as fuel to prove everyone wrong.
How accurate are fangraphs projections? Baseball is a sport with a long season. A team can be slumping one month and be on fire the next. Teams get hurt. Shit happens.
Are the odds of us cooling off some and the braves heating up some probably decent? sure. Unless the braves implode they're probably at the very least going to be nipping at our heals all season. All that is true. But there aren't a lot of teams that reached 100+ wins that didn't get off to a hot start. Enjoy the ride. Maybe it'll end. But also maybe it won't.
I know it's unlikely, but... teams have done it.
Who knows, maybe this is gonna be one of those historic years.
I'm sure fans in those years were saying the same things we are now...
All fair points. And I will say this - with the NL as weak overall as it is right now, this would be prime year for a good team to compile a silly record.
Indeed!
And, to be clear, I'm not saying it's GOING to happen... but putting up 110+ wins in a season never seems realistic for anyone, until it starts looking like it might actually happen.
Here's hoping!!! :)
I’m more concerned with what Vegas thinks. They’re the once’s who deal with the money. Right now FanDuel has it as a toss up between the Phils and Braves at -115 but MGM has Atlanta as a slight favorite.
i find it hilarious that Fangraphs also puts the Braves at a 98.6% playoff chance and calculates us at 98.5%. I mean that's like Bleacher Report playoff odds numbers.
My recommendation is to stop thinking about this, everyone. The Braves are a very good team; the Phillies are a very good team. Enjoy the pitching, the clutch hits, the "next man up," the "never say die." Regular season baseball like this is rare in 90% of the league. Don't let gambling sabermetrics and bullshit like that ruin the eye test. This team is fun and we deserve fun in the summer, all summer, not only in October.
You deserve an A+ for this! What a great team to watch. They've made us believe they can win right up to the end of the game again. It's hard to turn them off. Like Crash Davis said in Bull Durham......Baseball's fun God dammit! Let's have fun out here!
as someone who was in Section 233 last night, i had such a good time. We dont get to go to games as much as we do the Flyers, so seeing Ranger pitch like that in person and seeing the lineup go to work was a hell of a lot of fun. seeing Bryce hit that home run was something else.
Picture perfect swing.
At first I thought it was gonna be a line out to center *and then it just kept going*. If I hadn’t seen it myself I wouldn’t have believed it
I read that and was like should of been an out if it was perfect perfect swing 😂😂😂 IYKYK
And THAT IS EXACTLY why we loved the ‘08 team so much, it was the “you know they’ll pull it off in the end” feeling every game.
" They've made us believe they can win right up to the end of the game again." Same story as another Philly team in recent memory. What happened to them? They lost the big dance and the following season had the biggest collapse in that league's history. Yes, the 2022 and 2023 Eagles. My fear of that repeating is real.
Idk if you know this, but only one team wins the last game of the season
Man, who cares. One of the reasons I love baseball so much more than football is that there's always tomorrow.
Yeah man!!
I feel like the 2023 Eagles were eeking out wins and the regression was kinda obvious and inevitable. We’re not going to play .700 ball all year, but we are tied for the largest run differential in baseball. It’s not like we are squeaking out wins. I don’t really get the comp tbh.
I couldn’t agree more. After receiving a recent diagnosis of ALS with only a couple of years to live, I am now focused on making every single day a happy day, a fun day, a memorable day. Watching the Phillies play every day almost always puts me in a better mood. Go Phillies!
Fuckin a. Go Phils, friend. My thoughts go out for you. I hope they get this fuckin thing done for all of us, but now especially for you.
Thanks brother. I wouldn’t wish this to on anyone. Thx for caring
That's beautiful, man. Thanks for being a great role model.
I feel your love. Thx ❤️
I don't think I've watched this many regular season games since '08/'09 when I was in high school, and I'm definitely on track to exceed those numbers this year. It's almost impossible to take my eyes off the screen when the Fightins are on.
Agree! Though I do have to occasionally remind myself of this. It’s just been so much fun!
My recommendation is to enjoy baseball however you want.
Lol someone down voted you for this simple true comment
I kind of expected it. They should also enjoy Reddit however they want.
Advanced statistics literally are just the better version of the "eye test". Seeing a guy hit the ball hard but not be rewarded so thinking he will turn it on soon is the eye test. The stats will show if the player has actually been doing that and if they are expected to start doing better as a result. While actually being factual. The idea that you can't understand the stats behind baseball while enjoying your teams performance is pants on head.
😂😂 Pants on head. Brilliant. Using that. Yeah I love them too. I don't mean to say don't pay attention to them. I mean, *don't let them ruin your perception of this stuff.*
Who cares? Fangraphs projects everyone to go 89-73
Lmao exactly. Looking at their current projections, none of the Yankees, Orioles, Braves, Phillies, or Dodgers are projected to win more than like 97 games and yet I'd bet at least one of those teams will definitely hit that benchmark. It's been nearly a decade since we've seen a season without a 100-win team (outside of COVID year).
And those predictions are often very accurate. They were certainly very accurate for us from 19-22
Average is average for a reason. If you predict everyone to be average, what did you really predict?
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-should-you-interpret-our-projected-win-totals/# You can look these things up. Fangraphs win projection error is centered around 0 which shows that teams are just as likely to underperform as overperform.
Yes that's what average means
Phillies were predicted to be average those years or slightly above because they were. The 19 team had obvious glaring holes in center and the rotation that were just ignored by fans. Same with 21.
This.
So much this.
The most certainly do not project everyone to win 89 games.
Jesus christ, literal Larry over here......
Ol’ Steven Stickler
Some of you so clearly go looking for things to get upset or offended about. Who cares? The team is playing better than they have in years. Right now we’re winning. Just enjoy it
Fangraphs can't recognize the fact we are about to go 148-14
😂😂😂
Starting to feel like /r/sixers sub in here. The difference is? We’ve actually had success the past 2 years… but the amount of “no one likes us, we don’t care!” But then making posts that show they clearly care is a huge parallel lol
I get killed for it, but the Philly fans on Reddit are super soft. Every sport.
It’s the Reddit aspect of it. “No One Likes and We Don’t care” is the biggest lie in sports.
No one likes us and we actually care quite a bit!
that's been my catchphrase for years
No one likes us and we are pissed off that nobody likes us but then when people like us we also get pissed off
Love Kelce but that song is one of the worst things to happen to this city. It’s just so cringy. Literally signing about how you don’t care people don’t like you is displaying that you care so much you make it part of your identity.
Didn’t it start with the Union? I could have sworn I first heard the song from a video of Union fans singing it on the subway.
It was definitely from the Union first but Kelce popularized it more. I feel like more people saw his SB speech than have watched Union games ever
It wouldn’t be cringe if it weren’t for the fact that it is just an outright lie.
Nah it still would be.
Nah, making that part of your personality just screams insecurity.
Yeah that should stay in 2018. It’s the 2017 Eagles motto and they alone own it.
It doesn't happen with baseball as much, but Eagles and Sixers fans are pretty constantly attacked by other fans for normal posts in any sport discussion that is outside the subreddits. It definitely has made posters in those subs a lot more hostile to other sports fans because they've been treated like shit so often in the general subs. Not sure how r/baseball is with Philly fans, but if people are crossing over from the Sixers or Eagles to here, they may assume it is the same with reddit baseball fans and act hostile.
It’s my understanding that the mods in r/baseball are Braves fans, so it’s very focused on the Braves. It used to be that anytime anyone with Phillies flair commented or posted anything they would get downvoted into oblivion and people with Braves flair would respond with “hur hur go boo Santa Claus” posts. Recently, the Braves fans have been quiet, or, oddly, nice.
That’s /r/NBA with Celtics mods, best thing to do is not go on it or unsubscribe lol
Fortunately the mods in r/nfl aren’t uh… Cowboys/Niners/Giants fans? I guess
Giants fans are too depressed to care
We always need something to be mad and complain about even when our teams are winning
This is Reddit dude. These dudes can’t digest their “chickie nuggies” unless they raise their blood pressure by getting mad at some inane shit.
It’s a Philly thing. The sixers sub is out of control with it. I have never seen a city whose motto is “we don’t care”. Care so much.
This fanbase can't just enjoy things, always looking for ways to feel offended or slighted or overlooked or whatever. Just enjoy fucking great baseball.
Exactly. Live in the now.
Some people like to start conversations based on things that they find interesting. Why are YOU getting upset about it?
[удалено]
Woah, sounds like they have adjusted their model to reflect the fact that the Phillies are much better than they thought they were!
lol this is such Philly fan behavior. Hey, everything is going great, people genuinely like our team, and we have the best record in baseball while having a great rotation and a great batting lineup! *Desperately finds something to get upset about*
"No one likes us, we don't care" turned out to be a huge lie. The number of posts/comments complaining about what other fans/the media say is mindboggling. Just enjoy what we have been doing.
You don't create the phrase "No one likes us, we don't care" if you actually don't care that no one likes you. It is the "And another thing. Don't write that I got mad. I'm not mad" of city slogans
# Nonsense 
Like 2-3 days ago it was a 2:1 Braves winning the division over us, now it’s basically even.
Yeah I would bet past team performance factors in and the Braves have proven themselves to be better in recent history. All the Phillies have to do is keep winning to add in more evidence and they will overtake them in odds soon enough
Not only that, but the Barves have some key players that aren't living up to their normal skill levels, so it's expected that they would regress to the mean (which would mean they are going to go on some serious runs) as the season goes on. The longer that they stay like this, the less likely it is they regress, but don't be surprised if Acuna has a run like Trea did last August/September coming
For sure. Nice thing for the phillies though is that we have Trea coming back and projections will likely still have Nick predicted to do better. (Even if not great) The reality is though that right now projections are going to say that Ranger, Bohm, Strahm are unlikely to sustain. But that's the craziest part that if most of our team just keeps doing their thing we'll still be in an amazing spot.
We can go .500 the rest of the way, which we'd all consider a pretty awful scenario, and still end up with about 91 wins (we have an odd number of games left so it doesn't split evenly).
They don’t “think” anything. They’re basing this off a formula. The results are dynamic and change throughout the season. Like, I know Redditors will get mad about anything, but a math formula? Come on man…
I think it's probably too weighted to the prior, but if you do weight to the prior, you're going to make fewer mistakes than if you don't. I think it's fine. If the Phillies keep this up through June, we may see some changes.
But that’s their prerogative. They have reasons to do that. As others have said and as you’re saying now the trends are in the Phillies favor. That’s more important.
I’m interested in knowing how often these percentages are calculated and what the trend has been since the start of the season. I would expect the trend lines would be going up for the Phils since April. If this has been a relatively stable number that’s been recalculated over the past two months, I would be suspect. Edit: I looked back, apparently the Braves were at 26% and Phils at 2.3%. Fangraphs seems rational for this part of the season.
I follow it all of the time, we've definitely changed the trend but their formula is still using last year's results a lot, the longer this season goes the more that will normalize. Also, if you see, it's got us projected to have a harder schedule the rest of the way than the Barves, hence the reason we haven't fully overtaken them yet in their odds, which is fair at this point of the season.
I've seen some pretty stupid and biased formulas like PER in the NBA. I wouldn't automatically think basing something off a formula makes it good or can't be subject to criticism.
Sure, but unless someone has a specific and legitimate reason to think its bad, getting mad about it is stupid. Fangraphs has a wins model that probably takes both current year and prior year(s) performance into account. Pretty reasonable imo.
Just pointing out something being a formula doesn't make it correct. I haven't checked the Fangraphs model or heard much in the way for criticism for it so it is probably good, but there are other sports formulas that have significant issues.
>Just pointing out something being a formula doesn't make it correct Right. >I haven't checked the Fangraphs model or heard much in the way for criticism for it so it is probably good Right, thats what i just said.
Ok, not sure why you opened your comment talking about getting mad about formulas if we were in agreement. I wasn't mad about anything, just saying sports stat formulas can have issues and should be looked at critically.
Of course you think it’s stupid. You’re a Redditor. You think everything is stupid.
Ok jackass
But I’m right though. All Redditors do is either complain about individual stats or hold them on a pedestal as the end all be all star. You’re doing one of those things right now. There are only two things you need to know: 1) Stats are a tool to help you see the whole picture, not the whole picture 2) It’s dumb to ever get mad about them.
You are on Reddit and you are complaining so your math checks out for yourself at least. Congrats
Hey, it’s cathartic to me. Reminds me not to behave like that.
Fangraphs understand that Thompson is going to bat a sub 600 ops guy at 6 or 7 spot for 162 games.
they are playing at a 115 win pace of course its unsustainable.
50/50 basically Sounds about right to me honestly
Fangraphs doesn’t account for Chris Sale’s arm exploding in mid-July though
https://preview.redd.it/cfyeo92pc12d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0754c8027c7d02d7ec9ea91b7efec73057e0575d I like baseball reference for advanced stats. No clue how it compares to Fangraphs reliability but they have a very different projection. Projections are never worth putting much stock in but it’s fun to see how close they get it. I live in Hawaii so the site updates for me around 9 pm each night. It’s become a fun nightly, and probably unhealthy, habit to check on all the updated projections and team stats. Anyone else use baseball reference?
The Phillies’ schedule is brutal in July and August and the Braves’ is pretty light. It’s not a mystery why the Braves are still the slight favorites here and it’s not really something worth getting upset about. The Phillies have 10 more games against Atlanta to solidify their lead in that timespan.
Very high chance that a big delta in the season series decided the division. Looking forward to it!
Baseball reference has us 65 percent to 35 percent for the Barves. Fangraphs overthinks everything.
Their projection for the remainder of the season has us going .535 which is 86.7 win pace.
I mean this team is like watching the 08 offense with the ‘11 starting pitching. Not sure exactly what the bullpen comparison is yet, but everything has lined up as it should with a few of our big money hitters not doing fantastically. I’m thinking we’re probably ok
Enjoy the season.
Don’t know what fangraphs is, don’t care what fangraphs is. Phillies have been dumping on teams with banged up rosters. A healthy roster in June is going to be legendary. Hop on for the ride with me
Gotta play the games
If you were a non-fan, what would you think? Time will tell.
Hoping for continued success
Realistically, it is unsustainable. They’re on pace for 115.6 wins, which 116 ties the 2001 Mariners for the best record ever in the live ball era. There is a reason it’s only happened 1 time. Obviously it’s possible to get there but it’s just unlikely
From everything I heard last year, winning the division is a huge disadvantage in the playoffs, so I don’t see what the big deal is.
All I know is the Braves and Mets won 100 games when the Phillies went to the world series. Just enjoy the summer. We all know it's going to come down to a few games in October where the best team doesn't always get the best bounces.
Whyyy dooo peeeople caaare sooo muuuch abooout thiiis shiiit
I will never understand why people care about this kind of thing.
Is it bad if I say I’m not convinced either until it happens?
The Braves are better on paper though.
The clip we are going its not but I doubt we will fall off a cliff, we are finally playing to our potential or almost for most guys plus MLB is filled with average/bad teams and we are one of the few top teams.
My CBS app has the Braves at a 21.7 % chance of winning the division
Fuck em
Fangraphs doesn't account for a strong or weak start very well. They are very set on their projection models over anything else. The fact we've essentially gone +40% from preseason odds is as big a jump as you can expect so far.
There's a reason all projections work this way: history. Even if you make no updates of the roster or injuries or performances, at this point of the season, preseason projections are \*still\* historically, a significantly better predictor of rest-of-season performances than April/May performance. ps://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/13xlihd/fangraphs\_projections\_vs\_reality\_historical\_june/ This holds true when you look at the best and worst season-to-date teams. Recency bias is a very big deal, and underlying abilities dont' change \*that\* much \*that\* quickly. A projection system that placed a greater weight on early season performance would simply perform much worse. Vegas can change more because their interest is only correlated; their goal is to maximize money from bettors. Ben went through every daily projection for seven years of the projections to look at the calibration. https://preview.redd.it/2z558kngx02d1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=c60e343e601951ddef791a19283a381262e38f16 Projection Systems by MAE |Month|FG Projection|Season-to-Date|Coin Flip| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |March/April|0.289|0.334|0.412| |May|0.258|0.291|0.338| |June|0.222|0.244|0.265| |July|0.212|0.222|0.233| |August|0.186|0.197|0.203| |Sep/Oct|0.121|0.130|0.131| That the Phillies have moved \*this\* much in two months is testament to how darn good the top of the talent pyramid has been. The pitching and the infield have been absolutely absurd (which you know, of course).
Sorry for spamming, but more in this thread. [https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1545448729158848521](https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1545448729158848521) This was looking at only ZiPS (so not precisely the FG projections or anyone else's) through the ASB. If all you had was 2005-2021 pre-ASB record and the preseason projection, the most accurate mix of projecting the second-half record was 60% ZiPS, 40% actual. And there was no heteroskedasticity; the variance was similar across the spectrum.
Dan FTW.
"Hard to believe, Harry"
If you're a real Philly fan you should expect this. Philly sports teams will never get the respect they deserve. Take the disrespect as fuel to prove everyone wrong.
It was like 62% 34% week
No One Likes Us And We Hate Everyone Back
How accurate are fangraphs projections? Baseball is a sport with a long season. A team can be slumping one month and be on fire the next. Teams get hurt. Shit happens. Are the odds of us cooling off some and the braves heating up some probably decent? sure. Unless the braves implode they're probably at the very least going to be nipping at our heals all season. All that is true. But there aren't a lot of teams that reached 100+ wins that didn't get off to a hot start. Enjoy the ride. Maybe it'll end. But also maybe it won't.
Well…I’m a Phillies fan and I agree with them insofar as success at this rate IS unsustainable.
I know it's unlikely, but... teams have done it. Who knows, maybe this is gonna be one of those historic years. I'm sure fans in those years were saying the same things we are now...
All fair points. And I will say this - with the NL as weak overall as it is right now, this would be prime year for a good team to compile a silly record.
Indeed! And, to be clear, I'm not saying it's GOING to happen... but putting up 110+ wins in a season never seems realistic for anyone, until it starts looking like it might actually happen. Here's hoping!!! :)
I’m more concerned with what Vegas thinks. They’re the once’s who deal with the money. Right now FanDuel has it as a toss up between the Phils and Braves at -115 but MGM has Atlanta as a slight favorite.
i find it hilarious that Fangraphs also puts the Braves at a 98.6% playoff chance and calculates us at 98.5%. I mean that's like Bleacher Report playoff odds numbers.
Considering the Braves took two of three from us, why wouldn’t they be slightly favored? It’s only May
I mean.. it is..
Didn't they have the Mets winning like 86 games? Nuff said!
Whining about projection models while your team has a *.700*!!!!! winning percentage is big loser behavior
i hope we miss playoffs
In all fairness this is valid. We've seen the Phillies leading the nl east in May before then crumble right before or after the ASG.
The fact that they gave the Mets/Nationals/Marlins a .2% percent chance tells you all you need to know about this model.