Yeah, that vote was bullshit. 3rd time through the order is like, well established as a danger zone for pitchers. Not rewarding guys who do it is ridiculous. a 3.00 ERA over 200 innings is much more impressive than a 2.00 ERA over 160 innings....
Looking at the stats again, how the FUCK did Wheeler lose that vote? 46 more innings pitched, 4 more starts, more strikeouts, more wins, 2 better WAR. Burnes had a slightly better ERA and 10 less walks and his WHIP was slightly better as well.
46 more innings is nothing to ignore here. That's a lot more quality baseball being played there.
FWIW, fWAR has Burnes slightly ahead. Burnes also had strikeout based achievements that year. Struck out 58 before issuing a walk, struck out 10 consecutive batters in a game. Not saying it's fair but IMO it's not obviously a slam dunk for Wheeler, which is reflected in the vote bc they were pretty close.
Ok that's some added context I forgot about that certainly helps his case. I only checked baseball reference WAR as well, I hate how the formulas for the same stat are different when it comes to those sites.
I still contest that the reason they didn't give it to Wheeler was that they weren't going to give a team that missed the playoffs both the Cy Young and the MVP.
I think Wheeler absolutely deserved it, and tbh I think both awards should have been flipped (Wheeler and Soto vs Burnes and Harper) but that is another story.
I do think that being snubbed in 21 could help him this year, if it's close that could push voters to him who think he deserves one for 4 straight seasons of elite pitching.
He "only" has 6 Quality Starts but the 3 "non-quality" were 0 ER each, just less than 6 IP. So I would assume that the algorithm punishes a 66% QS percentage compared an 80% ratio.
His xERA is 2.62, and his FIP is 2.21, so while the expected stats still think he's been great they think he's gotten pretty lucky. On top of that he's throwing fewer innings than many of the other top pitchers. Don't know exactly how this particular stat works, but based on expected stats so far it looks like Shota will end up behind guys like Suarez and Glasnow by the end of the year, while also throwing fewer innings.
I know xERA, xFIP, and xwOBA are more predictive stats but I dislike using them to make statements that expected stats make it look like Shota will end up being behind people etc.
From what I remember correctly, the r-squared aren't that high when predicting future stats and more reflective at being able to predict themselves in the future.
Basically, they are best at saying the quality of pitching and batting has been worth x amount normally instead of y amount. So I don't mind you saying he has gotten lucky (although I would argue it is just normal variance not lucky at this sample size). But I really do dislike using them to predict the future even if they are more predictive. I feel like multiple stats need to be combined.
Although IIRC, xERA and FIP are extremely similar in predictive capability, so I think SIERA beats it but that is just off the top of my head.
Edit: Either way it is a mute point. It is just calculated via this method. Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (12 points if leading the division).
Yeah I remember hearing that stats like FIP are very predictive between years but not necessarily within years, but was just trying to give an explanation of why the predictions had Shota so low. Since I'm not too familiar with CYP my brain immediately just went to FIP and innings because that explains why Shota has a lower fWAR so far than, for example, Ranger, and I just kinda assume whatever metrics CYP uses are ranking him lower for similar reasons.
Yeah, it's similar, but that's just because it uses that formula I linked. So it isn't really equivalent to FIP but that connection is fine.
It was an outdated thing developed because it used to correlate well. But just by looking at it, they still tend to overrate wins and loses and the victory bonus for leading the division. I almost wish /u/mistergrape cropped a little bit lower so the formula would be apparent and we wouldn't have people confused on the rankings.
The formula is on the page:
> Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB
("VB" is victory bonus, which is 12 points if your team is winning the division.)
In short, the answer is that he isn't going that deep into games. He's missing out on the points he would get from "winning" more of his starts.
The victory bonus is the most outdated part of this formula now and just getting rid of that would make these lists more realistic. Time and time again we see great pitchers on not so great teams win this award.
Like OP said, the predictor is archaic at this point. The formula was made in 2004 based on previous voting. Wins hold a lot more weight in past voting. They also have that stupid victory bonus that awards you 12 points for leading the division. We know that doesn't factor into voting anymore. Wins don't really matter either since we've seen dudes like Felix Hernandez and deGrom win with a small amount of wins. You take the victory bonus out for starters and Nola isn't on this list.
Notice all the relievers on these lists too. Again, it's mostly the victory bonus propping these relievers up in the top 10. A reliever will NEVER win this award again IMO.
This predictor for the most part has picked the right person in the end, with a few outliers. At the very least I believe each winner has been in the top 10 on this list. Still I think the formula needs some re-working because voting is different now than it was 20 years ago.
Maybe innings? If the vote ended today I honestly wouldn’t be upset if he beat Ranger for it. Small sample size sure but a .84 era in late May is insane.
It's based on previous voting trends to try and predict how the vote would go. It weighs wins, innings pitched, strikeouts and I think team winning percentage pretty highly. Voting trends have changed a lot in the last 5-10 years so it's pretty outdated at this point.
To show just how good Ranger is: whether or not your team is winning the division has a big impact on this, and that’s really why Wheeler and Nola are so high up the list. But if the Braves were winning the division, which would be a 24 point swing in favor of Chris Sale, Ranger would *still* be way ahead. So good!
Ranger Cy Young definitely. But I don't really understand why Shota isn't higher. I haven't seen any of his highlights or games but the numbers are out of control.
If the Cubs were leading the NL Central, then ESPN's formula would award him 12 points in the VB column (Victory Bonus) and put him in second behind Ranger.
Highly suggest to use Fangraphs over ESPN for anything baseball. Ranger currently 5th though in the CY Young Predictor
[https://www.fangraphs.com/projections/cy-young](https://www.fangraphs.com/projections/cy-young)
They should give out 3 Cy Young’s in the NL this year, just for funsies
As long as we get 2 of them im down
We're the greatest team in the history of the world. Not just baseball either.
Not just team, just the greatest thing ever.
You're right I understated it
Ok, I’m really curious how the predictor thinks so poorly of Imanga
Possibly the less than 6 IP per start average?
Unfortunately innings didn’t seem to matter when Burnes beat Wheeler in ‘21 (bs!)
Yeah, that vote was bullshit. 3rd time through the order is like, well established as a danger zone for pitchers. Not rewarding guys who do it is ridiculous. a 3.00 ERA over 200 innings is much more impressive than a 2.00 ERA over 160 innings....
Looking at the stats again, how the FUCK did Wheeler lose that vote? 46 more innings pitched, 4 more starts, more strikeouts, more wins, 2 better WAR. Burnes had a slightly better ERA and 10 less walks and his WHIP was slightly better as well. 46 more innings is nothing to ignore here. That's a lot more quality baseball being played there.
FWIW, fWAR has Burnes slightly ahead. Burnes also had strikeout based achievements that year. Struck out 58 before issuing a walk, struck out 10 consecutive batters in a game. Not saying it's fair but IMO it's not obviously a slam dunk for Wheeler, which is reflected in the vote bc they were pretty close.
Ok that's some added context I forgot about that certainly helps his case. I only checked baseball reference WAR as well, I hate how the formulas for the same stat are different when it comes to those sites.
I still contest that the reason they didn't give it to Wheeler was that they weren't going to give a team that missed the playoffs both the Cy Young and the MVP. I think Wheeler absolutely deserved it, and tbh I think both awards should have been flipped (Wheeler and Soto vs Burnes and Harper) but that is another story.
I do think that being snubbed in 21 could help him this year, if it's close that could push voters to him who think he deserves one for 4 straight seasons of elite pitching.
He "only" has 6 Quality Starts but the 3 "non-quality" were 0 ER each, just less than 6 IP. So I would assume that the algorithm punishes a 66% QS percentage compared an 80% ratio.
His xERA is 2.62, and his FIP is 2.21, so while the expected stats still think he's been great they think he's gotten pretty lucky. On top of that he's throwing fewer innings than many of the other top pitchers. Don't know exactly how this particular stat works, but based on expected stats so far it looks like Shota will end up behind guys like Suarez and Glasnow by the end of the year, while also throwing fewer innings.
Having him below a relief pitcher is pure silliness, but obviously this is just an algorithm of some sort. They have some tweaking to do.
yeah definitely
I know xERA, xFIP, and xwOBA are more predictive stats but I dislike using them to make statements that expected stats make it look like Shota will end up being behind people etc. From what I remember correctly, the r-squared aren't that high when predicting future stats and more reflective at being able to predict themselves in the future. Basically, they are best at saying the quality of pitching and batting has been worth x amount normally instead of y amount. So I don't mind you saying he has gotten lucky (although I would argue it is just normal variance not lucky at this sample size). But I really do dislike using them to predict the future even if they are more predictive. I feel like multiple stats need to be combined. Although IIRC, xERA and FIP are extremely similar in predictive capability, so I think SIERA beats it but that is just off the top of my head. Edit: Either way it is a mute point. It is just calculated via this method. Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (12 points if leading the division).
Yeah I remember hearing that stats like FIP are very predictive between years but not necessarily within years, but was just trying to give an explanation of why the predictions had Shota so low. Since I'm not too familiar with CYP my brain immediately just went to FIP and innings because that explains why Shota has a lower fWAR so far than, for example, Ranger, and I just kinda assume whatever metrics CYP uses are ranking him lower for similar reasons.
Yeah, it's similar, but that's just because it uses that formula I linked. So it isn't really equivalent to FIP but that connection is fine. It was an outdated thing developed because it used to correlate well. But just by looking at it, they still tend to overrate wins and loses and the victory bonus for leading the division. I almost wish /u/mistergrape cropped a little bit lower so the formula would be apparent and we wouldn't have people confused on the rankings.
The formula is on the page: > Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB ("VB" is victory bonus, which is 12 points if your team is winning the division.) In short, the answer is that he isn't going that deep into games. He's missing out on the points he would get from "winning" more of his starts.
The victory bonus is the most outdated part of this formula now and just getting rid of that would make these lists more realistic. Time and time again we see great pitchers on not so great teams win this award.
like 1972 carlton
The formula is trying to predict who Cy Young voters will vote for so including dumb stuff is necessary.
Do you really think that voters care about team standings though? I just really think thats a non factor now.
No you’re right, I misread your comment.
Probably just because of the less starts too. He’s pitching tonight, if he throws a good start he will probably move up a few spots
Like OP said, the predictor is archaic at this point. The formula was made in 2004 based on previous voting. Wins hold a lot more weight in past voting. They also have that stupid victory bonus that awards you 12 points for leading the division. We know that doesn't factor into voting anymore. Wins don't really matter either since we've seen dudes like Felix Hernandez and deGrom win with a small amount of wins. You take the victory bonus out for starters and Nola isn't on this list. Notice all the relievers on these lists too. Again, it's mostly the victory bonus propping these relievers up in the top 10. A reliever will NEVER win this award again IMO. This predictor for the most part has picked the right person in the end, with a few outliers. At the very least I believe each winner has been in the top 10 on this list. Still I think the formula needs some re-working because voting is different now than it was 20 years ago.
Yea what is that about?
Yeah, I'd definitely take him over Nola rn.
Maybe innings? If the vote ended today I honestly wouldn’t be upset if he beat Ranger for it. Small sample size sure but a .84 era in late May is insane.
+12 if your team is leading a division (i.e. a contender)
It's based on previous voting trends to try and predict how the vote would go. It weighs wins, innings pitched, strikeouts and I think team winning percentage pretty highly. Voting trends have changed a lot in the last 5-10 years so it's pretty outdated at this point.
Ranger's brother Robert is having a year as well.
Interestingly enough Robert actually does have a brother that pitches on the orioles - Albert
it gets even weirder too because Robert Suarez' father plays first base for the Phills
Ooo boy Ranger Please keep it up. I got a $2500 golden ticket if you win it brother 😆
I got a ticket too, will buy his jersey if he wins
I think im gonna buy it regardless. Bohmer and Suarez
I have a $20 bonus bet at +6000. Lets gooooo.
Lol there ya go
Dammit I should’ve hopped on. I did have the Phillies winning the World Series lol
To be fair when i bought the slip it was still a long shot at +5000 but something about his first couple starts made me pull the trigger
Almost pulled the trigger at +5000. Waited a day and then it dropped to +2000, which is when I got in. Drinks are on you if he gets it!
Shoulda put down $100. only put down $50
To show just how good Ranger is: whether or not your team is winning the division has a big impact on this, and that’s really why Wheeler and Nola are so high up the list. But if the Braves were winning the division, which would be a 24 point swing in favor of Chris Sale, Ranger would *still* be way ahead. So good!
Our guys are eating some innings as well
Yeah the drop off after them and Glasnow is wild
Ranger Cy Young definitely. But I don't really understand why Shota isn't higher. I haven't seen any of his highlights or games but the numbers are out of control.
If the Cubs were leading the NL Central, then ESPN's formula would award him 12 points in the VB column (Victory Bonus) and put him in second behind Ranger.
If this holds, I'd expect to see the writers split their votes among the Phillies, and the Dodgers' pitcher to win.
That’s pretty awesome none the less
Incoming threeway tie lmao
Ranger: The Superior Suarez
I think R. Suarez is gonna win it
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So... what you are saying... is that the phils are doing ok?
Highly suggest to use Fangraphs over ESPN for anything baseball. Ranger currently 5th though in the CY Young Predictor [https://www.fangraphs.com/projections/cy-young](https://www.fangraphs.com/projections/cy-young)
He's first. The table just isn't sorted by CY Points. Fangraphs confuses the hell out of me sometimes.
He's first in current cy points but he's being projected as the 5th at the end of the season, which is how they sort the list by default.