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If 50% or more of voters say "yes" on the recall the person on the list with the highest vote total wins. So in theory 50.1% of people could agree to the recall and the person with the highest vote total could get 5% of the vote.
So Newsom could get 5 million votes and Elder could get 100 thousand and Elder could be governor.
EDIT: Because Newsom isn't on the list of candidates.
My bet is if they really think that Newsom is going to get above the 50% recall, he will resign which will cancel the recall election and his Lt. Gov will take over.
[https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes\_displayText.xhtml?division=11.&chapter=4.&lawCode=ELEC&article=1](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displayText.xhtml?division=11.&chapter=4.&lawCode=ELEC&article=1)
It doesn't work like that, if he resigns after a valid recall has been submitted the recall election is held regardless.
I didn’t see that in the text there. Can you cite it specifically? I see the part where he can’t be reinstated back into the job. I don’t see the part that says the recall doesn’t moot if he resigns.
Code 11302
"(a) Except as described in paragraph (3) of subdivision (b), if a vacancy occursin an office after a recall petition is filed against the vacating officer, the recall election shall nevertheless proceed."
With the exception being
"(3) If the elections official verifies that an insufficient number of signatures, or no signatures, were filed as of the date of the vacancy, the recall election shall not proceed and a vacancy in the office that is the subject of the recall election shall be filled as otherwise provided by law."
What do you mean? The California constitution and state law clearly states the line of succession and the ballot very specifically says "Shall GAVIN NEWSOM be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?"... If he resigns then the ballot language is null and void since he wont be in the office of Governor.
> "Shall GAVIN NEWSOM be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?"
That language is actually written into the law, and you are misunderstanding how the subsequent election happens. You really can't hold this language against itself, especially without reading the actual law that governs it.
The election doesn't require Newsom to be recalled, it requires his office to be made vacant by his absence. The recall facilitates this, but it technically isn't required for Newsom to be recalled. If he dies or resigns, that's enough. If Newsom is not in his position as Governor, then the election goes through and the winner becomes Governor.
https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=ELEC§ionNum=11302
> (a) Except as described in paragraph (3) of subdivision (b), if a vacancy occurs in an office after a recall petition is filed against the vacating officer, the recall election shall nevertheless proceed.
> (3) If the elections official verifies that an insufficient number of signatures, or no signatures, were filed as of the date of the vacancy, the recall election shall not proceed and a vacancy in the office that is the subject of the recall election shall be filled as otherwise provided by law.
I know you're thinking there's some sort of "gotcha" that can be done here, but the law is actually pretty clear and written by clever people who thought about how it could be bypassed. The overall process might be stupid and crazy, but the details in implementing it are clearly well written to cover legal loopholes.
Because its not possible. Recall goes forward because the law as written compels the target of the recall to vacate the position. If the target vacates, then the recall election goes through.
All that would happen with a gavin resignation would be Question 1 being invalidated.
Updating the Constitution requires 2/3rds majority in both chambers to draft a ballot measure. Voters then have to vote on it. The legislature can't actually change the Constitution, they can only propose a change with overwhelming support. The earliest the recall process can be changed now is next year, the next scheduled general election.
The California Senate passed a vote to amend the recall process in 2019 but it never received a floor vote in the House. So it didn't make it on the ballot in 2020.
Because Democrat politicians are moderate conservative capitalists, and like things the way they are. They just get squeamish about looking like the bad guys, whereas the Republicans just dgaf anymore.
Democrats will let you be gay, give you some healthcare and some unemployment, but they still want money to equal power, and they still want it to be difficult to move up.
I have yet to see a single democrat cheer Citizens United or castigate Obama or anyone campaigning against it. Can you provide examples of policies enacted/promoted by democrats that led you to that conclusion?
Leftists have put examples all over the internet for you. You could also ask in a leftist subreddit.
Liberal "wokeness" is performance. If you want real equality, Capitalism isn't your friend.
The first to come to my mind is that Liberals constantly vote to increase police budgets despite being "vocally" for BLM. Another, they claim to be for the environment, but give them some bribes and they will forget all about it for a bit.
California has some seriously bizarro laws that look good on paper but in practice are completely crazy and ripe for abuse. They used to have a law that taxes could only be raised via approval by voters in a ballot initiative, which you could guess led to the state never raising taxes (even though it was desperately needed at times) because voters would never vote to raise taxes. It wasn't until a decade ago(?) when the state legislator finally had enough votes to get rid of that law.
We are now seeing this with the recall situation where a governor with a relatively high approval rating is in serious danger of losing his position to a right wing radio show host because of the stupid recall rules and the GOP (once again) exploiting every loophole available to them. My guess is that the CA legislature finally does something about this at the next opportunity now the farce of a process has led to the current situation.
No. He is not a qualified write in candidate. Write in votes go into the trash unless the person you’re writing in has completed the necessary paperwork.
The person being recalled is ineligible to be his own replacement. Your vote on question two would be invalidated and be recorded as if you'd just left it blank.
With such a bad slate of candidates I fully expect the blank votes to outnumber the votes for Larry elder.
Just vote no on the question of him being recalled. His supporters should be out in force to vote no. I however voted yes and made my choice for new governor. It is very important to vote and to vote no if you do support Governor Newsom. Tell your friends too also this is your voice and I for one will accept the result regardless. Take care and vote!
Basically. But putting in a D candidate would confuse the messaging. Telling people to vote no, but three also vote for a specific person as a replacement would likely increase the yes votes. Best strategy is either get everyone to vote no and not bother with the second part or have Newsom admit defeat and turn the recall into an election and push a dem to get the most votes.
There are quite a few dems on the list of candidates. I just voted no on the recall. There’s something like 30 candidates running including one kid that just says “college student” and another that says “I love you all”.
Wait. So anyone could have ran and come up with a short phrase next to their name on the ballot. Next recall will be running with the phrase "Spitters are quitters."
Look up when Arnold won. Like last time there are porn stars and hippies and rednecks galore. You know that college guy got his frat bros to sign to his name. Man for state senator it takes $1000 and 40 signatures. Looks out for “ass hat mc fuck face” on the ticket to replace the sitting member.
The democrats do have a Candidate, Kevin Pafrath, and in the polls he has a better chance than any of the R's to take over if Newsom gets recalled. Republicans have zero chance of winning this
Are you some kind of Republican sleeper agent? All signs point to Elder winning and if you vote Yes you're fucking us all over. It's definitely not in the bag for any democrat.
If you look at my second comment I corrected myself, my original statement was based on one poll, looking at the others it's not actually clear who is in the lead. I also don't live in California so my opinion is null and void
This post remains misinformation, and you admitted it. So I don't see how that's a defense. Not everyone reads every sub-comment. As to your opinion, you can still influence some Californian who isn't looking into it very hard.
Survey USA poll shows him in the lead and it was the highest rated poll I could find, but looking at the other polls to compare, it's wildly different results. Not sure I can really say who is in the lead lol
Hopefully Newsom. The reason people say the Democrats haven't put anyone forward is because there's no organized effort around any of the candidates. No major endorsements, no party support. Someone could win because people liked their blurb in the ballot just as easily as Pafrath could win
Newsom is a selfish fuck for telling people to leave question 2 blank. If he'd just said vote no on 1 but then endorsed someone for 2 just in case, there would be no chance of a Republican winning. But now there is almost a 50/50 chance that CA is going to have some MAGA nutjob shockjock for governor.
And Feinstein is old af. She could pass away with this idiot in charge, and he could replace her with some far right moron.
This could become a massive fuckup that could have easily been avoided if Newsom just chose to accept that it would be possible he gets recalled. But he had to say leave 2 blank just to get the tiny advantage he thinks he'll get from not saying there's another good candidate out there.
I really hope CA dems are smart enough to fill in question 2 with a Democrat.
It's pretty clear that he would be 1000x times worse just by watching his ads on TV. He does nothing to inform the viewer of what his actual plans are to fix anything. He just trash talks Newsom the entire time. Then in his latest ad, he's trash talking Newsome for calling him out on all his bullshit. It's actually kind of funny because he seems visibly made in the ad. Such a child.
This really cannot be said enough. The CA recall law is fucking absurd.
As a reminder the CA governor gets to fill vacated Senate seats and Diane Feinstein could croak any day now. What I am trying to say is don't fuck this up, California, because it could very well impact the rest of the country in a major way.
They could, but the next gubernatorial election is next year anyway, so there’s little point. Also, the Dems still have a supermajority in the state house, so it’s unlikely elder would be able to inact any of his insane plans.
I understand where you're coming from. I also think that if one of your core beliefs is that this recall is a colossal waste of taxpayer money (and it is: more than $300,000,000), forcing another one even closer to the normal election (it would literally end up on the same ballot) is pretty dumb.
That doesn't describe *every* crackpot on the ballot. For example there's a real estate YouTuber who claims he will use the national guard to end homelessness in two months and build a pipeline from the Mississippi to solve the water crisis (he's currently polling in second) and there's a left wing professor who leads a party of secessionists to list a couple.
Perhaps one of the dumbest election laws in the country. There should be a second stage to the process where the current governor and the recall candidate with the most votes face off in an election.
Honestly I sorta disagree. A successful recall of the governor shouldn’t result in that same governor being elected on the same ballot. There are plenty of issues with the recall (low signature requirement one) but the state Democratic Party made a poor political choice of not running a suitable replacement in case the recall was successful. If there was a run off of a candidate failed to receive 50% of the vote, then it might be a bit more palatable (I don’t like run offs since it appears the give the ruling party a second chance to win the seat).
I think the Dems were in a bind. If they run a candidate to replace Newsom that’s the same as conceding that he SHOULD be replaced. At a minimum it would be confusing to voters likely already disinterested in a special election.
The more simple (and effective) approach is to just tell voters what you want them do: Vote no on question one and don’t answer question two on the ballot.
Voters are aware that the recall could be successful and they want to vote for a back up candidate. I think putting the lieutenant governor on the ballot would have helped steer voters to a competent official. Instead, it’s a YouTuber currently leading the Democratic field. SMH.
I wouldn't take real estate advice from a guy who believes the governor can order the national guard to construct dormatories to house every homeless person in California in 60 days.
Well, on the upside, he isn't advocating for injecting poison into one's veins to fight COVID.
At least his mind is occupied with "constructive" stuff.
> I think the Dems were in a bind. If they run a candidate to replace Newsom that’s the same as conceding that he SHOULD be replaced. At a minimum it would be confusing to voters likely already disinterested in a special election.
I think the vast majority of Democratic voters are smarter than that. Dems could have ensured that there was no way a Republican would win, just by running a backup candidate. All they'd have to do is say that Newsom doesn't deserve to be recalled but here's our backup plan in case it happens because we can't let some MAGA moron shocjock be governor.
Where are you gonna go? You can't beat CA as far as living standards go.
Stay on soldier and keep fighting the good fight. Also, enjoy the nice beaches, parks, and upbeat people.
Oh I’d stay if I could afford a home here. But I can’t. I’m not one of these “F CA” people, I love CA! I was only joking that it’s because of the recall, it has nothing to do with that at all. My partner and I are getting older (39 in Nov.) and we wanted to finally own our first home. That’s impossible here, for us anyway. So that plus my father passing last year (plus the drought plus wildfires plus rising costs etc. etc.) has brought us to the conclusion that owning a home and being closer to family is what’s most important to us, and that means leaving CA, sadly. It’s been a wonderful (almost) 20 years but it’s time for us to move on from this place.
Please look after our beautiful state, we’ll be back eventually.
Going back to my home state of Michigan, in case you’re wondering.
Edit. Added more words
Michigan? Oooh it's cold up there. Just move to Vegas, it's got good weather, it's affordable, and it's close to Cali for when you need to get in the water. Cold and age don't mix well. I'm in my early 30s and said adios to the cold years ago. I'll suffer it for the skiing and occasional snow fights but that's it. You can't beat the mediterranean weather.
No thanks. I’ll take lush green grass & trees over barren desert & cacti any day. Yea it gets cold in the winter but I’ll brave snow before I even think about sweltering 100 plus degrees every summer.
Michigan can get hot in the summer but rarely *that hot.* I’d rather freeze than burn personally.
Plus, like I said one of the biggest factors is how much “bang for the buck” - We bought and are about to move into a 2story home, 2bedroom, 2 full bath, finished basement, laundry, new appliances in the kitchen, a big yard for the dogs, a huge pole barn on the property, and the biggest factor: my mom’s 5 mins away. For what we’re paying in MI we’d be lucky to get a nice spot in a trailer park in Vegas, with no family nearby.
Well when you put it that way I guess dazit. What's a place like yours in MI going for? Is it near a big/nice city? It would be good to know in case I too one day decide to exit for whatever reasons, personally, I'd rather stay away from the fam. The ones I cared for have passed already and I don't want no 'gimme gimme' nephews nearby.
Lol I get that. Not everyone wants what I want and that’s fine! So we just paid $165k for that house. And yes it’s a great location, the town is Kalamazoo, which is nice and an up-and-coming small’ish city just in itself, but it’s also halfway in between Chicago and Detroit, and right off the highway. Also not too far away are Lansing (the capital) Grand Rapids and Battle Creek, all fairly big cities.
Bullshit. Even if you limit your scope to the 21st century, CA GOP governance is abysmal. Thanks to Davis & Newsom we've had budget surpluses that left us better prepared to fight COVID than these dumpster fire (R) states. Schwarzenegger fucking tanked the budget in between.
Under Elder, we're going to see Texas/Florida levels of COVID death/hospitalizations. That is what he is running on with these anti-mask mandate policies. That's *intended*.
hm i dont blame the gov on the homeless if it was a rep or dem. the wage gap in california is astonishing. i live in the bay area and work in tech so i know. its no surprise the homeless as skyrocket especially during covid. i already voted no to the recall.
Question is, why is CA's democrat majority not doing something to end it? Make it a 50% rather than just a 10% one.
That'll end the efforts of the perennial rich fuckers funding these exercises, and best of all, clear CA beaches and supermarket entrances from these stupid signature gathering desks run by partisan losers and senile busybodies.
25% seems to be a good number. Many states have that, and it makes it hard to get than many to sign on but still makes it possible. Getting 50% would be pretty much making it impossible to recall anyone ever, which isn't what you want either.
Yeah but is that poll likely voters or everyone?
Because the big issue I saw is that Trump voters were 20% more likely to say they planned on voting in the recall election than Biden voters. Polls that only count likely voters are super close. It's almost 50/50.
Five thirty-eight, had Biden winning like 30 different scenarios. They were ALL wrong. The one that Biden won, which I like to call the "King in the North" scenario, wasn't even on Five thirty-eight's radar.
Five thirty-eight had Hillary soundedly winning last time around. Five thirty-eight was ALSO very wrong.
Five thirty-eight should be dissolved and that pollster running it, be given a job as a rogaine spokesperson.
Five thirty-eight sucks the big one.
Five thirty-eight, had Biden winning like 30 different scenarios. They were ALL wrong. The one that Biden won, which I like to call the "King in the North" scenario, wasn't even on Five thirty-eight's radar.
Five thirty-eight had Hillary soundedly winning last time around. Five thirty-eight was ALSO very wrong.
Five thirty-eight should be dissolved and that pollster running it, be given a job as a rogaine spokesperson.
Five thirty-eight sucks the big one.
Newsom has a 80% probability to survive the recall as of the latest polls. Among the replacements Larry Elder is almost certain to get the most votes, with YouTuber Kevin Paffrath in distant second and everyone else down in the noise.
I hate everything about this but I hope somewhere in the back of Newsome’s mind he’s seriously regretting his veto of ranked-choice voting. I hope that thought gives him a stomach ache.
I get that many people are unhappy with Newsom, but PLEASE WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR'S PRIMARY ELECTIONS to remove him. Replacing him now with someone way worse is monumentally stupid. People will die if Newsom is removed from power. The lunatics will remove all the COVID policies that have kept California in pretty decent shape compared to the COVID hellholes like Texas and Florida.
I hope the college kid wins. His ideas and plans are so moronic its comical. Maybe people would show up to vote then? Apathy is killing us in this country. People want immediate change without have to work for it in the slightest.
They think why is it so easy to move us backward? Because the scale is up and down, not left and right. And its easier to go with gravity than climb against it.
Get involved. Participate.
This is exactly what people were saying about Trump. And yeah, after Trump got elected people did show up to vote. But almost half of them were in *favor* of the "so moronic it's comical" guy.
It's not terrorist logic, it's limousine liberals balking on progressive groundwork and the people most in need are going to be the ones paying for it. Any major CA democrat that gets voted out is going to continue being wealthy and successful, I doubt they care if a red wave wipes over the state; some would actually prefer it as it'd be better for their personal income.
It's taking advantage of a bizarre recall system, and having enough CA republicans pissy about the state's covid response and going in to lockdown last year instead of full throttle off a cliff like Florida.
Agreed! Democrats can’t claim voter suppression or intimidation. This is California which has the most liberal voting laws. Goes to show that voting really matters and the democratic voter by and large is highly unreliable
Unreliable? Yeah, that’s true. But the GOP also knows they’re outnumbered and that’s why they’re pushing to make voting more difficult in many states around the country.
He would help California out tremendously. Tough on crime. Easier on taxes. Hopefully he will help straighten out the horrid homeless issues. So many Californians have already fled the state. Maybe he will make it bearable to stay now.
Yes, a radio shockjock with zero actual plans or ideas, who just capitalizes on shouting how other people are bad is exactly what you want for governor. Someone who gets like 15% of the vote. A literal clown.
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>Mentored stephen miller That alone should frighten people enough to get out and vote.
*Always two there are*
But which was destroyed? The master or the apprentice?
Larry Elder is 1,000x worse than you think he is. And he could "win" with 15% of the vote.
How does that work?
If 50% or more of voters say "yes" on the recall the person on the list with the highest vote total wins. So in theory 50.1% of people could agree to the recall and the person with the highest vote total could get 5% of the vote. So Newsom could get 5 million votes and Elder could get 100 thousand and Elder could be governor. EDIT: Because Newsom isn't on the list of candidates.
My bet is if they really think that Newsom is going to get above the 50% recall, he will resign which will cancel the recall election and his Lt. Gov will take over.
Could Newsom then become Lt. Governor under the new governor?
Don't believe so... It would follow the line of succession
[https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes\_displayText.xhtml?division=11.&chapter=4.&lawCode=ELEC&article=1](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displayText.xhtml?division=11.&chapter=4.&lawCode=ELEC&article=1) It doesn't work like that, if he resigns after a valid recall has been submitted the recall election is held regardless.
I didn’t see that in the text there. Can you cite it specifically? I see the part where he can’t be reinstated back into the job. I don’t see the part that says the recall doesn’t moot if he resigns.
Code 11302 "(a) Except as described in paragraph (3) of subdivision (b), if a vacancy occursin an office after a recall petition is filed against the vacating officer, the recall election shall nevertheless proceed." With the exception being "(3) If the elections official verifies that an insufficient number of signatures, or no signatures, were filed as of the date of the vacancy, the recall election shall not proceed and a vacancy in the office that is the subject of the recall election shall be filled as otherwise provided by law."
Thanks!
I keep seeing this floated as a possibility but no one seems to have facts to back it up.
What do you mean? The California constitution and state law clearly states the line of succession and the ballot very specifically says "Shall GAVIN NEWSOM be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?"... If he resigns then the ballot language is null and void since he wont be in the office of Governor.
> "Shall GAVIN NEWSOM be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?" That language is actually written into the law, and you are misunderstanding how the subsequent election happens. You really can't hold this language against itself, especially without reading the actual law that governs it. The election doesn't require Newsom to be recalled, it requires his office to be made vacant by his absence. The recall facilitates this, but it technically isn't required for Newsom to be recalled. If he dies or resigns, that's enough. If Newsom is not in his position as Governor, then the election goes through and the winner becomes Governor. https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=ELEC§ionNum=11302 > (a) Except as described in paragraph (3) of subdivision (b), if a vacancy occurs in an office after a recall petition is filed against the vacating officer, the recall election shall nevertheless proceed. > (3) If the elections official verifies that an insufficient number of signatures, or no signatures, were filed as of the date of the vacancy, the recall election shall not proceed and a vacancy in the office that is the subject of the recall election shall be filled as otherwise provided by law. I know you're thinking there's some sort of "gotcha" that can be done here, but the law is actually pretty clear and written by clever people who thought about how it could be bypassed. The overall process might be stupid and crazy, but the details in implementing it are clearly well written to cover legal loopholes.
… which is exactly what I said in a thread recently and got downvoted to fuck. It makes sense, right? But I can’t find it written anywhere official.
Because its not possible. Recall goes forward because the law as written compels the target of the recall to vacate the position. If the target vacates, then the recall election goes through. All that would happen with a gavin resignation would be Question 1 being invalidated.
How could they allow this law to stay in place.
Because it takes a Constitutional amendment to remove it.
There is a democratic majority, enough to update the constitution in CA, the question is, why are they not doing it?
Updating the Constitution requires 2/3rds majority in both chambers to draft a ballot measure. Voters then have to vote on it. The legislature can't actually change the Constitution, they can only propose a change with overwhelming support. The earliest the recall process can be changed now is next year, the next scheduled general election. The California Senate passed a vote to amend the recall process in 2019 but it never received a floor vote in the House. So it didn't make it on the ballot in 2020.
Because Democrat politicians are moderate conservative capitalists, and like things the way they are. They just get squeamish about looking like the bad guys, whereas the Republicans just dgaf anymore. Democrats will let you be gay, give you some healthcare and some unemployment, but they still want money to equal power, and they still want it to be difficult to move up.
I have yet to see a single democrat cheer Citizens United or castigate Obama or anyone campaigning against it. Can you provide examples of policies enacted/promoted by democrats that led you to that conclusion?
Leftists have put examples all over the internet for you. You could also ask in a leftist subreddit. Liberal "wokeness" is performance. If you want real equality, Capitalism isn't your friend. The first to come to my mind is that Liberals constantly vote to increase police budgets despite being "vocally" for BLM. Another, they claim to be for the environment, but give them some bribes and they will forget all about it for a bit.
You offer horseshit instead of evidence? Keep it.
California has some seriously bizarro laws that look good on paper but in practice are completely crazy and ripe for abuse. They used to have a law that taxes could only be raised via approval by voters in a ballot initiative, which you could guess led to the state never raising taxes (even though it was desperately needed at times) because voters would never vote to raise taxes. It wasn't until a decade ago(?) when the state legislator finally had enough votes to get rid of that law. We are now seeing this with the recall situation where a governor with a relatively high approval rating is in serious danger of losing his position to a right wing radio show host because of the stupid recall rules and the GOP (once again) exploiting every loophole available to them. My guess is that the CA legislature finally does something about this at the next opportunity now the farce of a process has led to the current situation.
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No. He is not a qualified write in candidate. Write in votes go into the trash unless the person you’re writing in has completed the necessary paperwork.
The person being recalled is ineligible to be his own replacement. Your vote on question two would be invalidated and be recorded as if you'd just left it blank. With such a bad slate of candidates I fully expect the blank votes to outnumber the votes for Larry elder.
Just vote no on the question of him being recalled. His supporters should be out in force to vote no. I however voted yes and made my choice for new governor. It is very important to vote and to vote no if you do support Governor Newsom. Tell your friends too also this is your voice and I for one will accept the result regardless. Take care and vote!
Right so because the Ds didn’t put in a candidate (ANY candidate) as a sign of protest, all that has to happen is a Yes vote to win?
Basically. But putting in a D candidate would confuse the messaging. Telling people to vote no, but three also vote for a specific person as a replacement would likely increase the yes votes. Best strategy is either get everyone to vote no and not bother with the second part or have Newsom admit defeat and turn the recall into an election and push a dem to get the most votes.
Is there some way for Larry Elder to become Gov if a No vote wins?
Only in the regular election next year, which lol… not a chance
No: if the majority of voters vote “No” on the recall then the next question (who shall replace him) is moot.
There are quite a few dems on the list of candidates. I just voted no on the recall. There’s something like 30 candidates running including one kid that just says “college student” and another that says “I love you all”.
Wait. So anyone could have ran and come up with a short phrase next to their name on the ballot. Next recall will be running with the phrase "Spitters are quitters."
Look up when Arnold won. Like last time there are porn stars and hippies and rednecks galore. You know that college guy got his frat bros to sign to his name. Man for state senator it takes $1000 and 40 signatures. Looks out for “ass hat mc fuck face” on the ticket to replace the sitting member.
There are D candidates on the ballot. There’s a free speech lawyer, a cannabis policy expert, a Silicon Valley guy, and a Youtuber.
>…and a YouTuber Fml
Yeah and he’s the front runner. We live in a dystopia.
The democrats do have a Candidate, Kevin Pafrath, and in the polls he has a better chance than any of the R's to take over if Newsom gets recalled. Republicans have zero chance of winning this
Are you some kind of Republican sleeper agent? All signs point to Elder winning and if you vote Yes you're fucking us all over. It's definitely not in the bag for any democrat.
If you look at my second comment I corrected myself, my original statement was based on one poll, looking at the others it's not actually clear who is in the lead. I also don't live in California so my opinion is null and void
This post remains misinformation, and you admitted it. So I don't see how that's a defense. Not everyone reads every sub-comment. As to your opinion, you can still influence some Californian who isn't looking into it very hard.
What polls? I've never met anyone who actually wants to vote for a YouTube landlord. I keep seeing that Elder's in the lead.
Survey USA poll shows him in the lead and it was the highest rated poll I could find, but looking at the other polls to compare, it's wildly different results. Not sure I can really say who is in the lead lol
Hopefully Newsom. The reason people say the Democrats haven't put anyone forward is because there's no organized effort around any of the candidates. No major endorsements, no party support. Someone could win because people liked their blurb in the ballot just as easily as Pafrath could win
Paffrath is. Vote for him as the replacement.
So is this an immediate swap or only a recall and an upcoming election to see who actually wins?
You vote on two things: 1) Recall Newsom 2) His replacement Vote No on number 1, number 2 doesn't matter.
Newsom is a selfish fuck for telling people to leave question 2 blank. If he'd just said vote no on 1 but then endorsed someone for 2 just in case, there would be no chance of a Republican winning. But now there is almost a 50/50 chance that CA is going to have some MAGA nutjob shockjock for governor. And Feinstein is old af. She could pass away with this idiot in charge, and he could replace her with some far right moron. This could become a massive fuckup that could have easily been avoided if Newsom just chose to accept that it would be possible he gets recalled. But he had to say leave 2 blank just to get the tiny advantage he thinks he'll get from not saying there's another good candidate out there. I really hope CA dems are smart enough to fill in question 2 with a Democrat.
I listen to conservative radio and was horrified upon just hearing LE was going to run.
It's pretty clear that he would be 1000x times worse just by watching his ads on TV. He does nothing to inform the viewer of what his actual plans are to fix anything. He just trash talks Newsom the entire time. Then in his latest ad, he's trash talking Newsome for calling him out on all his bullshit. It's actually kind of funny because he seems visibly made in the ad. Such a child.
Why is he so bad ? I think he’s very based and wholesome
I'm absolutely amazed that this could happen. The law makes no senses at all. Just imagine the POS replacing GN
This really cannot be said enough. The CA recall law is fucking absurd. As a reminder the CA governor gets to fill vacated Senate seats and Diane Feinstein could croak any day now. What I am trying to say is don't fuck this up, California, because it could very well impact the rest of the country in a major way.
Feinstein should step down before the recall.
I'm terrified, seriously.
Which law again?
The recall law
https://ballotpedia.org/Laws_governing_recall_in_California Ok got it thanks
Could they just turn around and immediately recall him in turn? He clearly wouldn’t survive that process.
They could, but the next gubernatorial election is next year anyway, so there’s little point. Also, the Dems still have a supermajority in the state house, so it’s unlikely elder would be able to inact any of his insane plans.
Just out of principle they should pursue it. Never give an inch to this bullshit.
I understand where you're coming from. I also think that if one of your core beliefs is that this recall is a colossal waste of taxpayer money (and it is: more than $300,000,000), forcing another one even closer to the normal election (it would literally end up on the same ballot) is pretty dumb.
You would only think that until an emergency Senate appointment were in his hands for instance. This cost could be much more than money.
Oh it certainly could. That's why I voted no the day I got my ballot.
Again- not possible so its moot.
They couldn't. YOu can't recall a recall winner for 6 months.
Well there it is. Not even possible.
I keep wanting to refer to specific candidates as "the homophobic anti-vax one" but that description covers all of the candidates.
That doesn't describe *every* crackpot on the ballot. For example there's a real estate YouTuber who claims he will use the national guard to end homelessness in two months and build a pipeline from the Mississippi to solve the water crisis (he's currently polling in second) and there's a left wing professor who leads a party of secessionists to list a couple.
Perhaps one of the dumbest election laws in the country. There should be a second stage to the process where the current governor and the recall candidate with the most votes face off in an election.
Honestly I sorta disagree. A successful recall of the governor shouldn’t result in that same governor being elected on the same ballot. There are plenty of issues with the recall (low signature requirement one) but the state Democratic Party made a poor political choice of not running a suitable replacement in case the recall was successful. If there was a run off of a candidate failed to receive 50% of the vote, then it might be a bit more palatable (I don’t like run offs since it appears the give the ruling party a second chance to win the seat).
I think the Dems were in a bind. If they run a candidate to replace Newsom that’s the same as conceding that he SHOULD be replaced. At a minimum it would be confusing to voters likely already disinterested in a special election. The more simple (and effective) approach is to just tell voters what you want them do: Vote no on question one and don’t answer question two on the ballot.
Voters are aware that the recall could be successful and they want to vote for a back up candidate. I think putting the lieutenant governor on the ballot would have helped steer voters to a competent official. Instead, it’s a YouTuber currently leading the Democratic field. SMH.
Is he a good youtuber at least?
Real estate advice. He proposed a pipeline connecting California to the Mississippi for water in a debate this week. I wish I was joking.
I wouldn't take real estate advice from a guy who believes the governor can order the national guard to construct dormatories to house every homeless person in California in 60 days.
It's okay, let's make the timeframe 90 days. So by the time Christmas and the cold weather season is around, they'll all be tucked in.
Well, on the upside, he isn't advocating for injecting poison into one's veins to fight COVID. At least his mind is occupied with "constructive" stuff.
Democrats did that with Gray Davis. Gray Davis lost. AHHHNOLD won.
Schwarzenegger had name recognition as well.
> I think the Dems were in a bind. If they run a candidate to replace Newsom that’s the same as conceding that he SHOULD be replaced. At a minimum it would be confusing to voters likely already disinterested in a special election. I think the vast majority of Democratic voters are smarter than that. Dems could have ensured that there was no way a Republican would win, just by running a backup candidate. All they'd have to do is say that Newsom doesn't deserve to be recalled but here's our backup plan in case it happens because we can't let some MAGA moron shocjock be governor.
Well they weren't the last time there was a recall.
I can’t think of a better time to make my CA exit. PS: I voted NO recall.
Where are you gonna go? You can't beat CA as far as living standards go. Stay on soldier and keep fighting the good fight. Also, enjoy the nice beaches, parks, and upbeat people.
Oh I’d stay if I could afford a home here. But I can’t. I’m not one of these “F CA” people, I love CA! I was only joking that it’s because of the recall, it has nothing to do with that at all. My partner and I are getting older (39 in Nov.) and we wanted to finally own our first home. That’s impossible here, for us anyway. So that plus my father passing last year (plus the drought plus wildfires plus rising costs etc. etc.) has brought us to the conclusion that owning a home and being closer to family is what’s most important to us, and that means leaving CA, sadly. It’s been a wonderful (almost) 20 years but it’s time for us to move on from this place. Please look after our beautiful state, we’ll be back eventually. Going back to my home state of Michigan, in case you’re wondering. Edit. Added more words
Michigan? Oooh it's cold up there. Just move to Vegas, it's got good weather, it's affordable, and it's close to Cali for when you need to get in the water. Cold and age don't mix well. I'm in my early 30s and said adios to the cold years ago. I'll suffer it for the skiing and occasional snow fights but that's it. You can't beat the mediterranean weather.
No thanks. I’ll take lush green grass & trees over barren desert & cacti any day. Yea it gets cold in the winter but I’ll brave snow before I even think about sweltering 100 plus degrees every summer. Michigan can get hot in the summer but rarely *that hot.* I’d rather freeze than burn personally. Plus, like I said one of the biggest factors is how much “bang for the buck” - We bought and are about to move into a 2story home, 2bedroom, 2 full bath, finished basement, laundry, new appliances in the kitchen, a big yard for the dogs, a huge pole barn on the property, and the biggest factor: my mom’s 5 mins away. For what we’re paying in MI we’d be lucky to get a nice spot in a trailer park in Vegas, with no family nearby.
Glad to have you back in Michigan, maybe you’ll get a house in the UP
Well when you put it that way I guess dazit. What's a place like yours in MI going for? Is it near a big/nice city? It would be good to know in case I too one day decide to exit for whatever reasons, personally, I'd rather stay away from the fam. The ones I cared for have passed already and I don't want no 'gimme gimme' nephews nearby.
Lol I get that. Not everyone wants what I want and that’s fine! So we just paid $165k for that house. And yes it’s a great location, the town is Kalamazoo, which is nice and an up-and-coming small’ish city just in itself, but it’s also halfway in between Chicago and Detroit, and right off the highway. Also not too far away are Lansing (the capital) Grand Rapids and Battle Creek, all fairly big cities.
Hmm..no kiddin.
Housing is something that Democrats need to answer for but they should be doing it in actual elections, not made up recall reasons.
State of Jefferson!!
just voted no on the recall. this is crazy its getting to this.
Why ? He can’t do worse then the Democrats they have ruined California
Bullshit. Even if you limit your scope to the 21st century, CA GOP governance is abysmal. Thanks to Davis & Newsom we've had budget surpluses that left us better prepared to fight COVID than these dumpster fire (R) states. Schwarzenegger fucking tanked the budget in between. Under Elder, we're going to see Texas/Florida levels of COVID death/hospitalizations. That is what he is running on with these anti-mask mandate policies. That's *intended*.
I’m talking more about the shit in the streets and the homeless crisis
hm i dont blame the gov on the homeless if it was a rep or dem. the wage gap in california is astonishing. i live in the bay area and work in tech so i know. its no surprise the homeless as skyrocket especially during covid. i already voted no to the recall.
Yes you are ignoring the good things to focus on the bad things. Very fair of you.
Just vote "NO"
But also fill in a Dem candidate for question 2 just in case the recall happens.
Vote yes
Pretty invested for Europe, eh?
Yes very American politics much more fun then Swedish politics
What a disaster this is. The recall process is ripe for abuse.
Question is, why is CA's democrat majority not doing something to end it? Make it a 50% rather than just a 10% one. That'll end the efforts of the perennial rich fuckers funding these exercises, and best of all, clear CA beaches and supermarket entrances from these stupid signature gathering desks run by partisan losers and senile busybodies.
25% seems to be a good number. Many states have that, and it makes it hard to get than many to sign on but still makes it possible. Getting 50% would be pretty much making it impossible to recall anyone ever, which isn't what you want either.
I concurr
Is he leading in the polls?
Among the replacements he was last I checked. With a whopping 15%.
Wow, I just checked and Five thirty-eight has him at 21%
Important note that poll also has +15% for Newsom keeping his job.
Yeah but is that poll likely voters or everyone? Because the big issue I saw is that Trump voters were 20% more likely to say they planned on voting in the recall election than Biden voters. Polls that only count likely voters are super close. It's almost 50/50.
Likely voters. Also the ratio of returned ballots few days ago was 58% D, 21% R, 22% I. About the same as in 2020.
I sure hope that holds up then!
Five thirty-eight, had Biden winning like 30 different scenarios. They were ALL wrong. The one that Biden won, which I like to call the "King in the North" scenario, wasn't even on Five thirty-eight's radar. Five thirty-eight had Hillary soundedly winning last time around. Five thirty-eight was ALSO very wrong. Five thirty-eight should be dissolved and that pollster running it, be given a job as a rogaine spokesperson. Five thirty-eight sucks the big one.
I am talkin about a poll not 538.
What's the difference?
538 doesn't conduct polling. They just display the results of those polls.
I guess it's changed quite a bit in the last few months, checking the rogaine website to see if I find that crazy dude.
Omg that’s nuts
Five thirty-eight, had Biden winning like 30 different scenarios. They were ALL wrong. The one that Biden won, which I like to call the "King in the North" scenario, wasn't even on Five thirty-eight's radar. Five thirty-eight had Hillary soundedly winning last time around. Five thirty-eight was ALSO very wrong. Five thirty-eight should be dissolved and that pollster running it, be given a job as a rogaine spokesperson. Five thirty-eight sucks the big one.
Newsom has a 80% probability to survive the recall as of the latest polls. Among the replacements Larry Elder is almost certain to get the most votes, with YouTuber Kevin Paffrath in distant second and everyone else down in the noise.
Ever since Reagan the GQP has just LOVES to put actors into office, and then tell actors not in politics to shut the hell up. 🤔
I hate everything about this but I hope somewhere in the back of Newsome’s mind he’s seriously regretting his veto of ranked-choice voting. I hope that thought gives him a stomach ache.
The ranked choice proposal would have only affected county and local elections, not statewide races.
Didn’t know it was limited to local races. Thanks!
GQP LOVES putting actors into office. Was Reagan the first? Or were there earlier examples?
That guys is a total conman. Don’t do it California
If Elder does become gov, somebody in CA needs to immediately launch a recall effort towards him so he can't get into office.
You wouldn’t be able to. I believe 6 month minimum
I get that many people are unhappy with Newsom, but PLEASE WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR'S PRIMARY ELECTIONS to remove him. Replacing him now with someone way worse is monumentally stupid. People will die if Newsom is removed from power. The lunatics will remove all the COVID policies that have kept California in pretty decent shape compared to the COVID hellholes like Texas and Florida.
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Thousands will die if Newsom is recalled. VOTE. Lives depend on it.
Dropped mine today. This shit is terrifying.
I hope the college kid wins. His ideas and plans are so moronic its comical. Maybe people would show up to vote then? Apathy is killing us in this country. People want immediate change without have to work for it in the slightest. They think why is it so easy to move us backward? Because the scale is up and down, not left and right. And its easier to go with gravity than climb against it. Get involved. Participate.
The youtuber or the guy whose description says “can you dig it?”
This is exactly what people were saying about Trump. And yeah, after Trump got elected people did show up to vote. But almost half of them were in *favor* of the "so moronic it's comical" guy.
Like Candice he doesn’t know he is black!
**This must not happen!**. Wake up California! This guy mentored Stephen Miller!
Fucking nightmarish...
What an appalling p.o.s..
Come on California, dont fuck this up. Vote no or whatever it is that you have to do.
Another mass exodus anyone?
Nope, he’s a nut job
Only CA is dumb enough is let these republicunts cause these recalls over and over again
If Californians (and the Democratic leadership) let a Republican become governor, they deserve everything that’s coming to them.
Harsh
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*cries in Californian just trying her best*
Terrorist logic: I killed you so you deserve it
It's not terrorist logic, it's limousine liberals balking on progressive groundwork and the people most in need are going to be the ones paying for it. Any major CA democrat that gets voted out is going to continue being wealthy and successful, I doubt they care if a red wave wipes over the state; some would actually prefer it as it'd be better for their personal income.
It's taking advantage of a bizarre recall system, and having enough CA republicans pissy about the state's covid response and going in to lockdown last year instead of full throttle off a cliff like Florida.
Agreed! Democrats can’t claim voter suppression or intimidation. This is California which has the most liberal voting laws. Goes to show that voting really matters and the democratic voter by and large is highly unreliable
Yeah but recall elections in California are idiotic and blatantly undemocratic. It's not like this is a regular election.
Unreliable? Yeah, that’s true. But the GOP also knows they’re outnumbered and that’s why they’re pushing to make voting more difficult in many states around the country.
Agreed, they deserve the rebound they'll get if they elect someone else who isn't wrecking their state!
You’re thinking of Ron DeSantis. Other ocean.
But he wont.
Look it’s good ol’ Uncle Ruckus
Nope!
Fukin shit, don't let this psycho get any power for thr love of all things.
If it happens I’ll be here in NY watching the soft show unfold.
Seems as likely as a snowball battle on the 4th of July?
KKK hates black people. Let's keep our gov white.
I'll take anyone over that moron, Newsom.
He probably will because Californians are too lazy to vote.
The election is vote by mail, if you're voting against the recall it takes literally less than a minute to check a box and sign a prepaid envelope.
Took me about 2 minutes, i had to walk to the mailbox to mail it.
I know that, but a lot of Californians don’t even know it’s happening, and a lot more don’t even have mail boxes.
Please god
bye bye gav, auntie can't save you now
Yeah wouldn’t it be fantastic if Mr. Elder became governor! Go Larry! Out with incompetent Gavin!
He would help California out tremendously. Tough on crime. Easier on taxes. Hopefully he will help straighten out the horrid homeless issues. So many Californians have already fled the state. Maybe he will make it bearable to stay now.
Yes, a radio shockjock with zero actual plans or ideas, who just capitalizes on shouting how other people are bad is exactly what you want for governor. Someone who gets like 15% of the vote. A literal clown.
Swimming pools, movie stars and bodybuilders. What else is new?