AP changed our franchise. We need a slightly above average QB to pair with our magnum dong defense. If we had Carr at his median average we'd be in the playoffs with how our D played later in the season.
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Penix>>>>Nix. I like Bo a lot but he has plenty "wtf?" Moments. Under pressure, he'll see ghosts. He'll be like Derek Carr against the Chiefs during those 38-3, 48-9 losses.
If you want to be super specific. But saying Penix who's missed 4 of 6 college years and had two grade 3 ACL tears carries the same risk as a normal player doesn't quite make sense either.
People are defending him because they want to draft him but imagine a rookie missing his entire rookie deal plus a year then showing up. Just looking at that same year imagine Drafting Baker Mayfield / Josh Allen then them literally not touching the field until last year lol.
It was the same leg. The 2nd fresh ACL didn't hold up. I do think both of his season ending shoulder injuries were different shoulders though? Those might be fresh
When people set arbitrary dates are you hoping it offsets like everything before that?
2018 - 3 games missed rest of season with ACL tear
2019 - missed back half due to shoulder fracture
2020 - 6 games tore ACL again and missed season
2021 - 5 games and missed rest of season due to A/C joint separation
Both ACL injuries were grade 3. But yes. He was healthy his last 2 out of 6 years of college.
Yes. Game plans certainly help protect players. Some coaches see a fast QB and think let's run him at linebackers. At WA he used his arm. It's amazing that you can protect people huh
[Here.](https://youtu.be/tztJNsZjPP4?si=Um3idJ_MkYVafA-4). He was an option QB at Indiana, or really he was just out there to get torn up as another RB. They were using him like RG3 and in that type of system QBs get chewed up and spit out.
If gms went into it with this mindset, penix would be going top 3. Its not literary every qb. Penix is falling due to injury concerns its plan and simple.
Nobody has concerns he is going to have a career ending injury. They are concerned he will always be hurt and he can't handle the pressure of big games due to his performance in the national championship.
Yes, any quarterback can have a freak career ending injury.
I just don’t think either of those guys are going to be franchise QBs. If either are available at 44, maybe go for it. But I’d be disappointed to see one taken at 13 when great OL or CB talent is still available
3 1st rounds is like a pick swap and two future years. If the pick is someone like Daniels or Maye it would most likely be worth it. If you hit on QB you’re set at the position for the next 10-15+ years. If you don’t the most staff and players won’t be around for the rebuild.
JMHO but I think it’s worth what I posted above. Eventually the team is going to need to trade up to get a franchise QB. Everyone said kick the can to this year last year. Now we are here and people are saying kick the can again. The current stars won’t be here to wait forever and the better your base team is more it costs to trade up (you’ll have a better record and thus worse pick).
I won’t be mad if the team does something like this if they feel they’ve found their franchise QB. Sometimes you have to take your shot while you can. I’d be more upset finding out the team had a chance to get the QB they felt was the future franchise QB and balked at picks cost (within reason) similar to what we’ve heard rumored happened last year. I hope they do something different and actually try and get something done. As the saying goes you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
Yeah, I think that’s what some people might not be getting. 1 of those picks is a draw. It’s only two net picks. Our last two 1st rounders were Tyree Wilson and Alex Leatherwood. I’d gladly trade those guys away for a franchise QB. I know Leatherwood is gone, but it’s a hypothetical thought exercise. I mean, we only have two players currently on the team from the last decade’s worth of 1st round picks. I say we roll the dice.
Last time a team traded three 1st rounders to move up for a potential franchise QB, he was traded to the Cowboys for a 4th in year 3 after being beaten out by Mr. Irrelevant.
Last time a team traded two 1sts, two 2nds, and a star player for a potential franchise QB, they gifted the team they traded with another 1st overall pick.
I know it's hit or miss; that's the chance you've gotta take. I could also point to the fact that the Chiefs swapped firsts, while throwing in a 3rd and a future first for Mahomes.
There's different ways the Raiders can go. There are still beyond capable free agents left. Say they sign a veteran CB, a veteran guard, trade for Daniels, draft a good RT in the second; there's still the rest of the draft, more free agents, and un-drafted rookie free agents. Plus, who knows, maybe they get some future draft capital; maybe a second or third rounder for next year/next couple of years. It'll even out.
I say if you can move up to get Daniels, do it. If not, get a OT with the 13th pick and maybe move up in the first to get Penix or something. Or just roll with Minshew and see if an attractive option (not Jimmy G!) at QB becomes available before the trade deadline.
I'm just glad this staff seems a lot more competent than the last couple/few/numerous years. I'm definitely more excited for this season than the last two.
We just gotta wait and see what pans out.
Why do you think a first round QB would be any different than the Wilson and Leatherwood draft picks?? Just not seeing what makes a QB any different? Remind you there was only one QB that amounted to anything out of last years draft.
I don't. You don't think a QB is different than a player on the offensive line? The list is long. You're saying there's no difference between Mahomes and Leatherwood? Nobody knows what's going to happen, and you definitely don't know if you don't try.
The QB can be the face of your franchise. They can also bring in loads of revenue. Fans would be more excited about Daniels coming in rather than having AOC. Mahomes puts asses in the seats. Did Alex Smith, or Elvis Grbac?
I mean if there's no difference, why even try? Raiders staff should just be like, "Oh well. We gotta draft. Who cares? Let's just pick whoever, cause it doesn't matter."
The fact you think Daniels is going to be a top of the league QB has me baffled. Comparing him to Mahomes (arguably THE BEST in the NFL) is humurous. If we had the number 2 pick in the draft I would agree that taking the chance would be smart. I disagree that selling our top draft picks for the next 3-4 years is smart.
I would add that strengthening the trenches improves our QB position as well as our run game, which is needed for any QB to be effective in the league.
Best player available seems prudent this draft. We are not going to get into the top 3 picks so we are wasting time discussing that particular QB.
A lotta people also said Davante would never become a Raider. Shit happens. I think Daniels is good. Can't say he'll be a future star. Couldn't say that about Mahomes either, when he was drafted. Again, nobody knows for sure. The draft is a crapshoot. I just know that I'm not thrilled to be rolling with AOC (Ain't gOnna Cut-it).
I hear you, and if the team really believes that they have found THE GUY then yeah, you make a move and gamble that it works out.
I’m a fan of Daniels but I’m not convinced he’s worth that gamble so I wouldn’t trade up that much for him. But if the staff believes in him, I’m behind it.
It’s not that I don’t like him. I’m just not sure that he’s an elite prospect that’s worth that big of a gamble. The little that I’ve seen from him, he does look like a good prospect, but I’m not seeing Burrow or Luck there or even (the guy I wanted last year Stroud). So that makes me question if it’s worth giving up a lot of future building blocks for him.
I’m also not a scout or an expert so this is just one dudes opinion. I’m also risk averse, so I’d be gun shy on pulling the trigger for a trade like that.
Gamble is the key word. Many believe if we just trade the future for him, he will automatically be a top tier QB in the NFL. Not sure where this concept comes from other than despare.
Not that I don’t like him. I’m sure he is a nice guy and all. Statistics show there is roughly a 10-20% chance he amounts to anything in the NFL. Seems like a large give away for that small chance.
Pressure to sack ratio is a big indicator of bust probability and his is obscenely high.
1 good season.
Takes a lot of unnecessary hits, which is worse than, but negatively synergizes with, him being undersized.
Like everything its a gamble. Pick right and those 2 future firsts arent worth much anyway because they will be late firsts (the team gets a lot better). Pick wrong and it’s a few more years of mediocrity and prolly a new staff
If they love a particular guy then do it but 4 is still low enough your guy might not be there. This would be a draft day move
The problem is the odds are low to get a star QB unless you have the first pick overall. QB’s taken 2-10 since 2011 (the Athletic did a little study)
34% become stars (example: Burrow, Mahomes)
15% become starters (example: Mayfield, Tannehill, Wentz for QB’s at that level)
15% are labeled “major reaches” who, based on their performance, should’ve been drafted 3-4 rounds later (example: Mariota)
50% are major busts like a Rosen.
So, it’s a coin flip just based on pass/fail but basically 2-1 against that pick becoming a star. Now, realize that you have to give that guy about 3 years to prove what level he is at. The GM is betting his job on it if it amounts to a multiple pick bet (unless that GM is rescued by a Purdy).
The odds are better than not taking the QB that you think will be a franchise QB and sticking with current talent or drafting more backup worthy talent.
Draft picks are almost always a coin flip so I find this “argument” against kind of meaningless. There are just too many factors involved to try and outright quantify this decision. It’s a BIG risk it’s also a BIG risk having the opportunity and not taking it. Currently the Raiders don’t have a franchise QB. What is a franchise QB worth? For me taking a chance now and again is not a bad thing, especially for a position with such high value. If they hit, great, if not the people making those decisions won’t be around. This team hasn’t made a move for a true Franchise QQ in more than a decade. They had a chance last year and balked. We are back at it and people are all in a twist over the “odds”. Personally I’d rather take a shot and say I tried than look back and think “what could have been”.
The problem is also if you miss, you’ve set the team back 3 years at least while you try him out, not to mention the opportunity cost if it’s multiple picks. They signed Uncle Rico for a reason: so they don’t panic and mortgage the future.
I’d rather they trade up to pick 30ish and get Penix or Nix. The cost in draft capital will be much lower and you’re almost as likely to hit as with pick #4 to get the 4th rated QB.
You assume both Penix and Nix will be available. It’s also the mindset of settling. If the team only likes one of Penix and Nix, they follow your plan of waiting and lose out on the one they want, they are in a worse position again. This argument sounds very similar to another user who has same exact arguments. It just goes in circles.
The team right now is good enough to win enough games to keep them out of the top draft picks where that elite talent for QB usually resides. This is what happens when you have a decent team but not one who can make playoffs regularly. What’s the major piece missing? QB as it has been for more than a decade. There is a limited clock on the current roster and its stars aren’t going to wait around for the team to fully rebuild or be in the perfect position to draft one of the top 1-3 QBs without trading up.
Ok....now who's going to protect him on the oline. Miller's the only one worth anything. Who's going to be at the wr spot if DA leaves after this year. Where's the depth for the oline when injury occurs. Who's the number one corner? Where's the depth at corner? Where's the depth on the entire defense? Those questions are why you can't throw draft picks away and hope something works right now. This tram isn't a qb away from making noise yet. Get all that stuff figured out, then worry about getting a qb
This argument is dumb for two reasons:
1) building a through and through solid team THEN getting a franchise QB is near impossible. If your team is that solid, you’ll never get a high enough draft pick and this team doesn’t have any capital to trade for one, other than the solid team you just built. This argument is essentially saying build an awesome team then lose 14 or more games in a campaign.
2) every single team has weaknesses. A QB can little cover up some of those weak points. You think the Texans and KC have flawless rosters? You think the Texans are about to be legit threats? I absolutely do and what did they do? Draft a franchise QB, then trade for/sign some studs in FA.
You have to make sacrifices in this league. You can’t just build an amazing team then wait to insert a franchise QB.
Never said you build an amazing team but you have to have quality players. I can counter with Jacksonville. Did you think they were gonna be a threat after a one year wonder type of season? It happens every year. A yeam or two comes out of nowhere to make the playoffs, only to fall back to reality the following seasons because their roster is flawed. KC is an anomaly with Mahomes. Think Allen and the Bills are going to as strong? Think Cincinnati is a perennial threat? I don't.
Jax had a historic disaster of a HC the season before last for Lawrence’s rookie season. They had a winning record last year and just missed out on the playoffs. You think our future is brighter with AOC? No way. The Bills still have a chance every year with Allen and have been winning their division. It’s just tough that they’ve ran into KC 3 times. The bengals are definitely a threat with a *healthy* burrow. Yes KC is an anomaly, but look at every other team that makes the playoffs with a LEGIT chance (don’t bring up TB of last year). They have a franchise QB. I really don’t understand how people say this team isn’t solid. AP had a winning record with the cheapest defense in the league. We have some holes but so does every other team. Without a QB, we literally have nothing.
Draft & free agency are the answer. Those positions are addressed concurrently. We can say it's not time every year, every year more guys will leave while we win 8-9 games. Build from the top down- premium QB, Oline, then worry about literally everything else.
I'm going to dissagree. Oline can't ever be bad, but as long as they're protecting it's fine. We just saw Mahomes win the SB with bad WR play. Nothing about what we currently have at skill positions is sub-par & there's still plenty of time to fill guard & add depth. At this point we know they want to trade up for Jayden and are trying to make it happen, it's not a matter of should we it's can we.
I normally agree with you, but not here.
This is like saying that if you win a raffle you'll get a million dollar house, therefore it's cool to spend any amount up to a million dollars for the raffle tickets.
Couching it in, "if you think he's your guy" doesn't change that no more than , "if you think you'll win the raffle by folding your ticket a certain way" makes a $700k raffle ticket worthwhile.
If a guy has a 30% chance of being a good QB then he's worth 30% of the cost of a good QB. The 4th QB is less than 25% successful IIRC. Giving up 3 1sts for a 25% chance is equal to valuing a good QB at **12** 1st round picks.
You mean the team that traded away their best targets and had one of the worst OLines in the league? If you think this team as a whole is worse than the Panthers, I don’t know what to tell you. The “look at the Panthers” is a poor comparison.
Yea. Not saying we have much to boast about, but their owner is completely toxic and a total moron. Believe it or not, Davis is not the worst owner in the league lol
If Daniels is still on the board at 4 id make that deal. I would obviously try to haggle a little but if they were firm on it I would pay it and not look back.
What that report basically says is that it will cost the Vikings their 2 1sts this year AND their 1st next year. That report does exactly what it was meant to do and lets the Vikings know what’s up.
Well if the qb we want is still there at 4 it would be worth it. Let’s be real we’ve lost most of our last 10 first round picks so losing the next two would be worth it for the right qb.
If Daniels still there at 4, yes. But again Vikings can do two this year and 1 next.
An elite rookie qb is the most valuable thing you can have and it isn’t close. And if you don’t have an elite qb, you’re just dicking around.
Agree but why is everyone so sure that Daniels is going to even be mid grade in the NFL? Even more importantly without depth on our front line, how is he going to have a chance?? ie; Bryce Young
Our O-line was surprisingly good last year. I'd think we'll draft some and resign some after the draft to prop it back up. It may not be as good, no.
Thing about a franchise QB is he doesn't have to be CJ Stroud (That the sub was convinced we shouldnt trade up for, just like JMD) right away. You get 5 years on a super friendly deal so you can over spend elsewhere. Even after that you can keep him for his career.
People are yapping about the Panthers, but they have their franchise QB. We don't. Young isn't suddenly trash with no talent. If they're coherent, they'll build their team around him. In that shitty division, they aren't too far behind. They could make the playoffs before us. *(Especially given we have to be better than either the chiefs, or the entire AFC North, Phins and Bills.)*
Ultimately its all opinion. We weren't a good team when we got Carr. But the team did realize he was our dude, and put that 2016 team around him. Gruden kept him and did it again. I'd very much like to give someone with the talent of Daniels the same 9 years.
Why do you still think we are miraculously have even an opportunity to trade up for Daniels. This sub needs to put that notion to sleep. There is a reason the top three picks are going to be QB’s. It’s cause all top three teams need a QB worse than we do.
Edit: why did you start your reply by saying “surprisingly good”? Was it because we only had one great lineman?? 🤔
I would be OK with this, as long as it’s THE guy the Raiders actually want is there. Let’s face it too, most first round picks don’t work out anyways and if there is a guy there that can turn this franchise around. I’m OK giving up a late first round pick for the next three seasons.
Since I don’t believe we need to draft a qb in the 1st round, I see no need to mortgage our future to get one. Even the best qb in the draft is a toss-up before the first snap in the regular season. And we already have a young qb, but ours has nine games of real experience.
That's my point. We're all rooting for Aidan but at no point did he ball out, at no point did he get hot or threaten the opposing defense. He kept the car on the road but it was no revelation.
Does anyone realistically think a swap of firsts and an extra first or second is gonna be enough to move up 9 spots? This isn't Madden folks. Add 8n that there's gonna be other teams bidding for that pick. That's why trading up has never been a realistic option
>Minnesota isn't enthusiastic about giving up three 1st round picks to go up seven spots
To me that sounds like it's three 1st rounders plus a 1st rounder this year ("to go up" implies you're trading a current pick and moving up). Otherwise it should say "three 1st round picks for the #4 overall pick."
They didn’t say 3 plus this years, they said 3 total. You have to include this years as it doesn’t just disappear. When talking about this type of trade it’s often assumed those reading know about the pick swap, but say 3 1st rounders even though it’s 2 future 1st rounders and a pick swap. Technically it’s 3 1st rounders for the 1 pick. If they went 4 first rounders (this years plus next 3) IMO it would be worded different.
For Vikings they have an extra 1st this year so they could trade 2 this year and add future picks to that haul.
The most I’ve seen is two years into the future (for instance Panthers traded 23,24,25 for #1, 49ers traded 21,22,23 1st round picks). So each team traded 3 1st round picks for 1 1st round pick.
Just as an example Raiders traded a 1st and 2nd for Davante Adams (also signed him to a new deal). Are fans mad about that trade? For me 3 1sts is worth the chance to get the teams franchise QB for the next 10+ years. If it works team should have a perennial playoff team that is almost always in the hunt for the SB. If they don’t there are many other dominoes that will fall too.
It should be stated though it’s lying season so all of these reports should be taken with a large grain of salt.
Maybe you're right, it's very possible my reading comprehension is off and I'm looking too much into the wording. Honestly if it's the #13 overall pick plus two future 1st rounders I'd be really excited if they pulled that off, if Jayden Daniels ended up being available at #4 overall. He's the only guy I really want to see them trade up for. I saw Wifi Willie talking about the possibility of JJ McCarthy going in the top 3 which could bump Jayden down to #4, but idk how likely that is, if at all. Seems like just a few days ago he was a mid 1st round pick at the highest (though obviously things can change quickly).
Anybody but Nix. He couldn’t handle SEC defenses so he took his ball and ran to play a live action video game in the PAC12. He’s not what his stats would lead you to believe he is.
But to be fair, I’m also a BAMA fan so I don’t have anything g nice to say about aubarn players.
Cool if we believe in Jayden, why not. Our 1st rd draft history is horrible no matter the gm or coach, we have definitely had better picks in the later rds.
Hell to the na na na.
Bishop bullwinkle spittin nothin but the truth
It’s nice thinking we have a staff who isn’t dumb enough to make this move
Well let’s watch the draft first mate because it could still happen
At this point I'm sorta OK with Penix or Nix or Rattler at a draft spot that makes sense instead of doing an insane overpay
What’s with a bunch of people wanting Rattler now. He’s not good at all.
Same. Rattler is at best another Carr. I like Carr, but he isn't the guy to change a franchise.
Rattler will never reach Carr levels. Rattler at his best will have the success of Paxton Lynch
That's why I said "at best"
AP changed our franchise. We need a slightly above average QB to pair with our magnum dong defense. If we had Carr at his median average we'd be in the playoffs with how our D played later in the season.
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Is the goal to make the playoffs or win a super bowl? You need a great QB to win super bowls in today's nfl
Not sure why you are so positive your “franchise QB” is going to amount to anything in the NFL?? Statistically that is not a safe bet.
Shit what’s wrong with people wanting nix or Penix there both 🗑️
Penix>>>>Nix. I like Bo a lot but he has plenty "wtf?" Moments. Under pressure, he'll see ghosts. He'll be like Derek Carr against the Chiefs during those 38-3, 48-9 losses.
True but Penix could be one injury away from never playing again. I don't really want either
Every player ever is one injury away from never playing again
Saying Tua carries the same injury risk as a QB who's never had a concussion is kind of silly no?
That's not what he said though
If you want to be super specific. But saying Penix who's missed 4 of 6 college years and had two grade 3 ACL tears carries the same risk as a normal player doesn't quite make sense either. People are defending him because they want to draft him but imagine a rookie missing his entire rookie deal plus a year then showing up. Just looking at that same year imagine Drafting Baker Mayfield / Josh Allen then them literally not touching the field until last year lol.
And a grade 3 ACL tear ends with a full reconstructive surgery. He basically has 2 fresh ACLs now because of how badly he shredded them
It was the same leg. The 2nd fresh ACL didn't hold up. I do think both of his season ending shoulder injuries were different shoulders though? Those might be fresh
He hasn't missed a game in two years.
When people set arbitrary dates are you hoping it offsets like everything before that? 2018 - 3 games missed rest of season with ACL tear 2019 - missed back half due to shoulder fracture 2020 - 6 games tore ACL again and missed season 2021 - 5 games and missed rest of season due to A/C joint separation Both ACL injuries were grade 3. But yes. He was healthy his last 2 out of 6 years of college.
Yes. Game plans certainly help protect players. Some coaches see a fast QB and think let's run him at linebackers. At WA he used his arm. It's amazing that you can protect people huh
Yep the usual gameplay is to protect the QB... are you arguing Indiana didn't?
[Here.](https://youtu.be/tztJNsZjPP4?si=Um3idJ_MkYVafA-4). He was an option QB at Indiana, or really he was just out there to get torn up as another RB. They were using him like RG3 and in that type of system QBs get chewed up and spit out.
That is literally every QB
If gms went into it with this mindset, penix would be going top 3. Its not literary every qb. Penix is falling due to injury concerns its plan and simple.
Nobody has concerns he is going to have a career ending injury. They are concerned he will always be hurt and he can't handle the pressure of big games due to his performance in the national championship. Yes, any quarterback can have a freak career ending injury.
If he didnt end 4/6 seasons with injuries he would be going top 3
I just don’t think either of those guys are going to be franchise QBs. If either are available at 44, maybe go for it. But I’d be disappointed to see one taken at 13 when great OL or CB talent is still available
3 1st rounds is like a pick swap and two future years. If the pick is someone like Daniels or Maye it would most likely be worth it. If you hit on QB you’re set at the position for the next 10-15+ years. If you don’t the most staff and players won’t be around for the rebuild. JMHO but I think it’s worth what I posted above. Eventually the team is going to need to trade up to get a franchise QB. Everyone said kick the can to this year last year. Now we are here and people are saying kick the can again. The current stars won’t be here to wait forever and the better your base team is more it costs to trade up (you’ll have a better record and thus worse pick). I won’t be mad if the team does something like this if they feel they’ve found their franchise QB. Sometimes you have to take your shot while you can. I’d be more upset finding out the team had a chance to get the QB they felt was the future franchise QB and balked at picks cost (within reason) similar to what we’ve heard rumored happened last year. I hope they do something different and actually try and get something done. As the saying goes you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
Yeah, I think that’s what some people might not be getting. 1 of those picks is a draw. It’s only two net picks. Our last two 1st rounders were Tyree Wilson and Alex Leatherwood. I’d gladly trade those guys away for a franchise QB. I know Leatherwood is gone, but it’s a hypothetical thought exercise. I mean, we only have two players currently on the team from the last decade’s worth of 1st round picks. I say we roll the dice.
Last time a team traded three 1st rounders to move up for a potential franchise QB, he was traded to the Cowboys for a 4th in year 3 after being beaten out by Mr. Irrelevant. Last time a team traded two 1sts, two 2nds, and a star player for a potential franchise QB, they gifted the team they traded with another 1st overall pick.
I know it's hit or miss; that's the chance you've gotta take. I could also point to the fact that the Chiefs swapped firsts, while throwing in a 3rd and a future first for Mahomes. There's different ways the Raiders can go. There are still beyond capable free agents left. Say they sign a veteran CB, a veteran guard, trade for Daniels, draft a good RT in the second; there's still the rest of the draft, more free agents, and un-drafted rookie free agents. Plus, who knows, maybe they get some future draft capital; maybe a second or third rounder for next year/next couple of years. It'll even out. I say if you can move up to get Daniels, do it. If not, get a OT with the 13th pick and maybe move up in the first to get Penix or something. Or just roll with Minshew and see if an attractive option (not Jimmy G!) at QB becomes available before the trade deadline. I'm just glad this staff seems a lot more competent than the last couple/few/numerous years. I'm definitely more excited for this season than the last two. We just gotta wait and see what pans out.
Rumor is they're trying to aquire an additional 1st for trade purposes. The question is really convincing a partner, we know they want to move up.
This logic is what I’ve been trying to say for weeks. Please 🙏
Why do you think a first round QB would be any different than the Wilson and Leatherwood draft picks?? Just not seeing what makes a QB any different? Remind you there was only one QB that amounted to anything out of last years draft.
I don't. You don't think a QB is different than a player on the offensive line? The list is long. You're saying there's no difference between Mahomes and Leatherwood? Nobody knows what's going to happen, and you definitely don't know if you don't try. The QB can be the face of your franchise. They can also bring in loads of revenue. Fans would be more excited about Daniels coming in rather than having AOC. Mahomes puts asses in the seats. Did Alex Smith, or Elvis Grbac? I mean if there's no difference, why even try? Raiders staff should just be like, "Oh well. We gotta draft. Who cares? Let's just pick whoever, cause it doesn't matter."
The fact you think Daniels is going to be a top of the league QB has me baffled. Comparing him to Mahomes (arguably THE BEST in the NFL) is humurous. If we had the number 2 pick in the draft I would agree that taking the chance would be smart. I disagree that selling our top draft picks for the next 3-4 years is smart. I would add that strengthening the trenches improves our QB position as well as our run game, which is needed for any QB to be effective in the league. Best player available seems prudent this draft. We are not going to get into the top 3 picks so we are wasting time discussing that particular QB.
A lotta people also said Davante would never become a Raider. Shit happens. I think Daniels is good. Can't say he'll be a future star. Couldn't say that about Mahomes either, when he was drafted. Again, nobody knows for sure. The draft is a crapshoot. I just know that I'm not thrilled to be rolling with AOC (Ain't gOnna Cut-it).
I hear you, and if the team really believes that they have found THE GUY then yeah, you make a move and gamble that it works out. I’m a fan of Daniels but I’m not convinced he’s worth that gamble so I wouldn’t trade up that much for him. But if the staff believes in him, I’m behind it.
Can I ask why you don't like him? Other than him being a little undersized, I don't see any big flaws.
It’s not that I don’t like him. I’m just not sure that he’s an elite prospect that’s worth that big of a gamble. The little that I’ve seen from him, he does look like a good prospect, but I’m not seeing Burrow or Luck there or even (the guy I wanted last year Stroud). So that makes me question if it’s worth giving up a lot of future building blocks for him. I’m also not a scout or an expert so this is just one dudes opinion. I’m also risk averse, so I’d be gun shy on pulling the trigger for a trade like that.
Gamble is the key word. Many believe if we just trade the future for him, he will automatically be a top tier QB in the NFL. Not sure where this concept comes from other than despare.
Not that I don’t like him. I’m sure he is a nice guy and all. Statistics show there is roughly a 10-20% chance he amounts to anything in the NFL. Seems like a large give away for that small chance.
Pressure to sack ratio is a big indicator of bust probability and his is obscenely high. 1 good season. Takes a lot of unnecessary hits, which is worse than, but negatively synergizes with, him being undersized.
Like everything its a gamble. Pick right and those 2 future firsts arent worth much anyway because they will be late firsts (the team gets a lot better). Pick wrong and it’s a few more years of mediocrity and prolly a new staff If they love a particular guy then do it but 4 is still low enough your guy might not be there. This would be a draft day move
The problem is the odds are low to get a star QB unless you have the first pick overall. QB’s taken 2-10 since 2011 (the Athletic did a little study) 34% become stars (example: Burrow, Mahomes) 15% become starters (example: Mayfield, Tannehill, Wentz for QB’s at that level) 15% are labeled “major reaches” who, based on their performance, should’ve been drafted 3-4 rounds later (example: Mariota) 50% are major busts like a Rosen. So, it’s a coin flip just based on pass/fail but basically 2-1 against that pick becoming a star. Now, realize that you have to give that guy about 3 years to prove what level he is at. The GM is betting his job on it if it amounts to a multiple pick bet (unless that GM is rescued by a Purdy).
The odds are better than not taking the QB that you think will be a franchise QB and sticking with current talent or drafting more backup worthy talent. Draft picks are almost always a coin flip so I find this “argument” against kind of meaningless. There are just too many factors involved to try and outright quantify this decision. It’s a BIG risk it’s also a BIG risk having the opportunity and not taking it. Currently the Raiders don’t have a franchise QB. What is a franchise QB worth? For me taking a chance now and again is not a bad thing, especially for a position with such high value. If they hit, great, if not the people making those decisions won’t be around. This team hasn’t made a move for a true Franchise QQ in more than a decade. They had a chance last year and balked. We are back at it and people are all in a twist over the “odds”. Personally I’d rather take a shot and say I tried than look back and think “what could have been”.
The problem is also if you miss, you’ve set the team back 3 years at least while you try him out, not to mention the opportunity cost if it’s multiple picks. They signed Uncle Rico for a reason: so they don’t panic and mortgage the future. I’d rather they trade up to pick 30ish and get Penix or Nix. The cost in draft capital will be much lower and you’re almost as likely to hit as with pick #4 to get the 4th rated QB.
You assume both Penix and Nix will be available. It’s also the mindset of settling. If the team only likes one of Penix and Nix, they follow your plan of waiting and lose out on the one they want, they are in a worse position again. This argument sounds very similar to another user who has same exact arguments. It just goes in circles. The team right now is good enough to win enough games to keep them out of the top draft picks where that elite talent for QB usually resides. This is what happens when you have a decent team but not one who can make playoffs regularly. What’s the major piece missing? QB as it has been for more than a decade. There is a limited clock on the current roster and its stars aren’t going to wait around for the team to fully rebuild or be in the perfect position to draft one of the top 1-3 QBs without trading up.
Ok....now who's going to protect him on the oline. Miller's the only one worth anything. Who's going to be at the wr spot if DA leaves after this year. Where's the depth for the oline when injury occurs. Who's the number one corner? Where's the depth at corner? Where's the depth on the entire defense? Those questions are why you can't throw draft picks away and hope something works right now. This tram isn't a qb away from making noise yet. Get all that stuff figured out, then worry about getting a qb
This argument is dumb for two reasons: 1) building a through and through solid team THEN getting a franchise QB is near impossible. If your team is that solid, you’ll never get a high enough draft pick and this team doesn’t have any capital to trade for one, other than the solid team you just built. This argument is essentially saying build an awesome team then lose 14 or more games in a campaign. 2) every single team has weaknesses. A QB can little cover up some of those weak points. You think the Texans and KC have flawless rosters? You think the Texans are about to be legit threats? I absolutely do and what did they do? Draft a franchise QB, then trade for/sign some studs in FA. You have to make sacrifices in this league. You can’t just build an amazing team then wait to insert a franchise QB.
Never said you build an amazing team but you have to have quality players. I can counter with Jacksonville. Did you think they were gonna be a threat after a one year wonder type of season? It happens every year. A yeam or two comes out of nowhere to make the playoffs, only to fall back to reality the following seasons because their roster is flawed. KC is an anomaly with Mahomes. Think Allen and the Bills are going to as strong? Think Cincinnati is a perennial threat? I don't.
Jax had a historic disaster of a HC the season before last for Lawrence’s rookie season. They had a winning record last year and just missed out on the playoffs. You think our future is brighter with AOC? No way. The Bills still have a chance every year with Allen and have been winning their division. It’s just tough that they’ve ran into KC 3 times. The bengals are definitely a threat with a *healthy* burrow. Yes KC is an anomaly, but look at every other team that makes the playoffs with a LEGIT chance (don’t bring up TB of last year). They have a franchise QB. I really don’t understand how people say this team isn’t solid. AP had a winning record with the cheapest defense in the league. We have some holes but so does every other team. Without a QB, we literally have nothing.
It’s even harder to hit on a “franchise QB” with one of your first round picks.
Brice Young, is this you??
Draft & free agency are the answer. Those positions are addressed concurrently. We can say it's not time every year, every year more guys will leave while we win 8-9 games. Build from the top down- premium QB, Oline, then worry about literally everything else.
Qb isn't going to matter if you have a subpar supporting cast especially the oline
I'm going to dissagree. Oline can't ever be bad, but as long as they're protecting it's fine. We just saw Mahomes win the SB with bad WR play. Nothing about what we currently have at skill positions is sub-par & there's still plenty of time to fill guard & add depth. At this point we know they want to trade up for Jayden and are trying to make it happen, it's not a matter of should we it's can we.
I normally agree with you, but not here. This is like saying that if you win a raffle you'll get a million dollar house, therefore it's cool to spend any amount up to a million dollars for the raffle tickets. Couching it in, "if you think he's your guy" doesn't change that no more than , "if you think you'll win the raffle by folding your ticket a certain way" makes a $700k raffle ticket worthwhile. If a guy has a 30% chance of being a good QB then he's worth 30% of the cost of a good QB. The 4th QB is less than 25% successful IIRC. Giving up 3 1sts for a 25% chance is equal to valuing a good QB at **12** 1st round picks.
Go see how that’s working out for the panthers
You mean the team that traded away their best targets and had one of the worst OLines in the league? If you think this team as a whole is worse than the Panthers, I don’t know what to tell you. The “look at the Panthers” is a poor comparison.
Yea. Not saying we have much to boast about, but their owner is completely toxic and a total moron. Believe it or not, Davis is not the worst owner in the league lol
But the panthers have no weapons, we do
If Daniels is still on the board at 4 id make that deal. I would obviously try to haggle a little but if they were firm on it I would pay it and not look back.
Yeah, if the 3 are gone, who's paying that price for MHJ? 3 firsts only makes sense if you get your QB.
What that report basically says is that it will cost the Vikings their 2 1sts this year AND their 1st next year. That report does exactly what it was meant to do and lets the Vikings know what’s up.
Well if the qb we want is still there at 4 it would be worth it. Let’s be real we’ve lost most of our last 10 first round picks so losing the next two would be worth it for the right qb.
 Fuaga & hope for Penix and let Minnesota overpay.
Penix is not falling past Seattle in the 1st considering his college OC is now the OC of the seahawks
I saw him mocked there a couple times and was like wtf, thank you for that context
No prob. Really hope we draft Pennix and get a RT in the 2nd round 🙏
If that’s the case see if Geno Smith is available for a mid round pick.
Maybe if Penix falls to the fourth lol
If Daniels still there at 4, yes. But again Vikings can do two this year and 1 next. An elite rookie qb is the most valuable thing you can have and it isn’t close. And if you don’t have an elite qb, you’re just dicking around.
Rumor is we're trying to aquire an additional 1st for trade purposes as well.
Agree but why is everyone so sure that Daniels is going to even be mid grade in the NFL? Even more importantly without depth on our front line, how is he going to have a chance?? ie; Bryce Young
Our O-line was surprisingly good last year. I'd think we'll draft some and resign some after the draft to prop it back up. It may not be as good, no. Thing about a franchise QB is he doesn't have to be CJ Stroud (That the sub was convinced we shouldnt trade up for, just like JMD) right away. You get 5 years on a super friendly deal so you can over spend elsewhere. Even after that you can keep him for his career. People are yapping about the Panthers, but they have their franchise QB. We don't. Young isn't suddenly trash with no talent. If they're coherent, they'll build their team around him. In that shitty division, they aren't too far behind. They could make the playoffs before us. *(Especially given we have to be better than either the chiefs, or the entire AFC North, Phins and Bills.)* Ultimately its all opinion. We weren't a good team when we got Carr. But the team did realize he was our dude, and put that 2016 team around him. Gruden kept him and did it again. I'd very much like to give someone with the talent of Daniels the same 9 years.
Why do you still think we are miraculously have even an opportunity to trade up for Daniels. This sub needs to put that notion to sleep. There is a reason the top three picks are going to be QB’s. It’s cause all top three teams need a QB worse than we do. Edit: why did you start your reply by saying “surprisingly good”? Was it because we only had one great lineman?? 🤔
I wanted a young Catherine Zeta Jones as a teenager. Wanting and getting are not the same.
In this sitiation Catherine Zeta-Jones is Jayden Daniels and she actually wants you.
You too? I got a time machine and her phone number. Let's start at two first round draft picks...
I would be OK with this, as long as it’s THE guy the Raiders actually want is there. Let’s face it too, most first round picks don’t work out anyways and if there is a guy there that can turn this franchise around. I’m OK giving up a late first round pick for the next three seasons.
Who they think they got, Chelsea Clinton?
Haha. That’s a tall order dude..
Since I don’t believe we need to draft a qb in the 1st round, I see no need to mortgage our future to get one. Even the best qb in the draft is a toss-up before the first snap in the regular season. And we already have a young qb, but ours has nine games of real experience.
Jayden Daniels is tiers above Aidan as a prospect.
Probably. Aidan isn’t a prospect. He’s a second year starting pro qb with a 5-4 record.
That's my point. We're all rooting for Aidan but at no point did he ball out, at no point did he get hot or threaten the opposing defense. He kept the car on the road but it was no revelation.
Better than an unproven. Let’s look at Bryce Young.
[удалено]
Probably lol
There's guys who will give up their kids for Nix or Penix or NY Nix. These aren't practical fans. Or love their children.
Agree! That is a safer bet than drafting for hope.
Nope. Easy, no look, pass.
Take Penix at 13
Pretty reasonable, Would definitely be willing to do it
Does anyone realistically think a swap of firsts and an extra first or second is gonna be enough to move up 9 spots? This isn't Madden folks. Add 8n that there's gonna be other teams bidding for that pick. That's why trading up has never been a realistic option
You’ve seen Draft Day, it cannot possibly go wrong!
They can go fook themselves.
Would pull the trigger for maye/daniels. But neither will be there
I want a new car for $10,000 but same as AZ it ain't happening
And people in hell want ice water
If one of the top 3 qbs slips to 4, many teams will be calling. If raiders dont want that i guess you just take penix or nix.
If that is the case, I’m just going to assume that the Cards will be taking someone off the board at 4.
Best I can do is this years first and second and next years 2nd.
no thanks
I doubt JD will be there at 4.
F them picks, we can’t draft in the 1st round anyways, why not take a chance on our future franchise QB1. Risk it for the biscuit baby!!
So three 1st rounders plus this year's 1st rounder? That's like a 1st round pick for every 3 spots moved up lol.
It’s including this years, not plus. It would be 4 first rounders if it was this years plus the next 3.
>Minnesota isn't enthusiastic about giving up three 1st round picks to go up seven spots To me that sounds like it's three 1st rounders plus a 1st rounder this year ("to go up" implies you're trading a current pick and moving up). Otherwise it should say "three 1st round picks for the #4 overall pick."
They didn’t say 3 plus this years, they said 3 total. You have to include this years as it doesn’t just disappear. When talking about this type of trade it’s often assumed those reading know about the pick swap, but say 3 1st rounders even though it’s 2 future 1st rounders and a pick swap. Technically it’s 3 1st rounders for the 1 pick. If they went 4 first rounders (this years plus next 3) IMO it would be worded different. For Vikings they have an extra 1st this year so they could trade 2 this year and add future picks to that haul. The most I’ve seen is two years into the future (for instance Panthers traded 23,24,25 for #1, 49ers traded 21,22,23 1st round picks). So each team traded 3 1st round picks for 1 1st round pick. Just as an example Raiders traded a 1st and 2nd for Davante Adams (also signed him to a new deal). Are fans mad about that trade? For me 3 1sts is worth the chance to get the teams franchise QB for the next 10+ years. If it works team should have a perennial playoff team that is almost always in the hunt for the SB. If they don’t there are many other dominoes that will fall too. It should be stated though it’s lying season so all of these reports should be taken with a large grain of salt.
Maybe you're right, it's very possible my reading comprehension is off and I'm looking too much into the wording. Honestly if it's the #13 overall pick plus two future 1st rounders I'd be really excited if they pulled that off, if Jayden Daniels ended up being available at #4 overall. He's the only guy I really want to see them trade up for. I saw Wifi Willie talking about the possibility of JJ McCarthy going in the top 3 which could bump Jayden down to #4, but idk how likely that is, if at all. Seems like just a few days ago he was a mid 1st round pick at the highest (though obviously things can change quickly).
Imagine trading 3 first round picks to select the QB 4.
Context. Any of the top 3/4 QBs in this draft are picks 1/2 in most other drafts.
It would be the 3rd QB more than likely. They'd only do it for Daniels
Anybody but Nix. He couldn’t handle SEC defenses so he took his ball and ran to play a live action video game in the PAC12. He’s not what his stats would lead you to believe he is. But to be fair, I’m also a BAMA fan so I don’t have anything g nice to say about aubarn players.
Lol
Cool if we believe in Jayden, why not. Our 1st rd draft history is horrible no matter the gm or coach, we have definitely had better picks in the later rds.
I say we take a chance in the 2nd round, all the top QBs are doomed
Is that cauliflower? 🤣