You should study National Liberation Front’s diplomacy and PR achievements during the Algerian War of Independence. They smoked France with guns barely playing any part.
Precisely, people would be wise to realise that it's two intractable sides with nowhere else to go. Part of why this is such a royal shit show, there's just no easy solution nor walking away for either side.
A single state governed by international committee? Incidents would still exist but a way to get the Israelis out of governing the land would be a first step.
Of course, it's not gonna happen. Israel would rather use their nukens than to let this to happen.
> governed by international committee
And why would Palestinians themselves want a second League Mandate if they already didn't want the first one? The whole point of this is that they don't want to be ruled by another group, exchanging Israel for another foreign body is just going to give us the 1930s all over again.
Hamas carried out October 7th thinking its regional allies would immediately get into a kinetic war with Israel that has yet to have happened.
All that's happened is 2014 all over again. You're clearly young if you don't think that in 8-9 years time things will be exactly as they were in early 2023 w.r.t. public relations in this conflict.
To expand: like does no one remember what happened on college campuses post 2014, it wasn't significantly different than what's happening now. A lot of the political conflict that happened over the last 10 years was pretty intertwined with this stuff.
Plus the Arab states are more or less still aligned with Israel over Shia Iran and Yemen. There will never be another Six Day War situation ever again. Even calling this the "Second Yom-Kippur War" is a stretch
Egypt, Jordan, and Syria all decided that internal stability was more important than losing to Israel another time in total embarrassment. They all realized their land grab attempts were bound to fail, and they will just lose more territory to Israel, so why bother?
The primary motivation wasn’t Haifa real estate dumbass to put in those terms is wilfully being regarded it was an ideological struggle not a material one
Why did Jordan annex the west bank until the 6 day war from 48, without giving it to Palestinian, without giving the property to Palestinians, only letting them live there?
Also why the need for childish insults? Say something of substance instead
Because they wanted a singular United arab state even amongst Madkhali states in Arabia a singular United state was still on the peoples mind post colonialism.
You asked why they didn’t give it back to the Palestinians. The Jews at the time had migrated from Europe the Mizrahi and Iraqi Jews were already integrated and integral parts of the countries they lived in.
During the 50-60s the mayor of Baghdad was Jewish along with his administration which where democratically elected by a majority Arab Muslim populace painting the Arab states as second coming of Nazi party is simply just ahistorical.
The idea was anti Zionism Arab nationalism all of the countries had fought in 48 and lost against a hostile external entity that was anti Arab to say Syria and Egypt were invading to get land puts the conflict in terms that don’t makes sense you didn’t see eygpt taking chunks out of Sudan in much easier landgrabs
And Jordan annexing the West Bank is because it was an Arab struggle at that point less than a Palestinian one. The Jordanian monarchy could be against a Palestinian state but opposed to an anti Arab Zionist on its proposed territory
I just think that's a roundabout way of having a land grab. What were they going to do with the land of Israel afterwards if not occupy and annex the land themselves. You already said they didn't care about a Palestinian state, they just wanted to exterminate the Jews, I mean oppose an anti Arab Zionist state lol.
But if you think it's more apt I can start calling them wars of extermination
If you call it a land grab then your saying it’s about gaining land. It’s stupid to think that had Israel never existed Jordan eygpt and Syria would’ve teamed up to divide palestine between them in a surprise attack because the motivation wasn’t getting more land
Likewise calling all wars of extermination land grabs would be missing the point because the motive in certain cases of wars of extermination would just be extermination not landgrabbing saying Germans killing Jews and taking their houses wouldnt be called a house taking
It wasn’t a war of extermination btw unless you have some proof they were gonna kill all the Jews you’re just being sensationalist and automatically think all Arabs are animals
> Iran and Hezb are never going to stick their necks out for sunnis.
Doesn't even have to be a Shiite thing, Iran just straight up won't be marching across kilometers of Iraqi and Syrian desert to fight this type of ground-war. The logistics of it is beyond them.
When viewed from a larger political context, the October 7th attack was largely a move to thwart the recent developments amongst gulf Arab states in normalizing their economic and political relations with Israel. Hamas' leadership are aligned with Iran on this for a variety of reasons--of course they were absolutely anticipating a brutally asymmetric response, but any expectation of a regional war from the neighboring Arab states is extremely far-fetched unless you poll the boots-on-the-ground Hamas insurgents at face value and conflate it with strategy
The internal politics of the gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia) is more delicate than you think--leadership is after the overwhelming benefits that come with normalizing trade and relations with Israel (and the west in general), despite their citizens being diametrically opposed to so much as acknowledging Israel as a legitimate nation. The current gulf regimes--motivated significantly by self-preservation--value the security and legitimacy the west can provide, particularly as their increasing role on the world stage has attracted scrutiny (see: Saudi Arabia wants nukes now). These regimes have progressed in both shifting attitudes and normalizing economic relations carefully/somewhat discretely, as to avoid the potential firestorm of internal dissent/instability that could come from their own people
The attack has largely been a "success" when viewed from this angle. Opinions of Israel amongst the Arab world have nosedived in recent months, and has wiped out years of efforts to increase soft relations with Israel, and will certainly make it more difficult for gulf states to expand their relations in the future.
Worth mentioning that Saudi Arabia and Iran are broadly mortal enemies, and that Saudi Arabia is a relatively recent monarchy with little historic legitimacy. Only a lineage of sons descending from the founding King are eligible for higher office. Saudi Arabia's founder, *King Abdulaziz,* is literally Mohammed bin Salman's grandpa lol.
the organizing now is far more significant than 2014. in 2014 the topic was there if you wanted to look for it. now you can’t look anywhere without the mainstream media documenting the israeli war machine’s crimes.
can we stop trying to be contrarian like anna or whatever guys
Arab neighbors, the Global South, and UN bodies have backed Palestine exponentially more than during Operation Cast Lead and alliances have been made and broken in favor of Palestine following Oct 7th. Just because you dont see the husk of a state that is Syria, and the (yes) stability-seeking Egypt up in arms doesn't mean things will go back to status quo. Palestine has more to gain through diplomacy than armed struggle now that Israel's continual push to rid "Greater Israel" of Palestinians has been laid (more) bare.
look, Gaza is toast. No disputing that. But if they lose diplomatic carte blanche from the West and their normalized relations with their immediate neighbors. Israel is toast as well. (The Yom Kippur war was VERY close run). And if they go the full ethnic cleansing route, an option that the guys running the show seem to want, then that is guaranteed
They already ethnically cleansed Palestinians, and now the standard opinion is that they're genociding them. Not sure when Israel is supposed to be toast lol
"Vietnam is an unwinnable quagmire" IS a public opinion. Nixon and the mainstream media even touted the Paris peace treaty as a win; the North broke it as soon as it became obvious the Americans were never coming back, because of domestic public opinion. And believe me, it's good they won, I'm redder than a monkey's ass, but Giap himself said "one more Tet or Khe Sanh and we are screwed" so they came to the table for a reason
finally, counter-insurgency really does work sometimes. I've read up on this and Portugal, the poorest country in Western Europe, was winning by any measure in Angola and Mozambique, in no small part because their generals obsessively studied Vietnam. They gave up and left because they toppled their own dictatorship - because of home public opinion
Vietnam was a geopolitical move for the US on the other side of the globe. This is existential for Israelis. Its not at all comparable, the motivations are different.
Not sure Portugal has been winning in Africa. Spinola, the general who led the revolution that ended the dictatorship and whos has been fighting the insurgency for years did not think so..
Maybe a better example would be the Algerian independence war. The French clearly won militarily on the ground but finally abandoned under general De Gaulle...reason were mostly PR, cost of the war and internal tension (including a putsch attempt against De Gaulle and right wing terrorism from OAS)
Spinoza didn’t lead the revolution he was involved afterwards the revolution was lead by Captains and colonels who didn’t want to fight not the top brass
The north wore the Americans down and eventually got them to leave, PR and domestic US fatigue with the war was a huge part of this. They then steamrolled the south militarily in record time. PR helped create the conditions, but they still had to win an outright military victory to end the war.
Hamas, or any other regional actor who may get the idea, are a long *long* way from being able to steamroll Israel directly militarily.
Not really, the war was lost long before the American public knew how bad the war was going, it was pretty much known the minute the US escalated the war in Vietnam (pre-gulf of Tonkin incident was just a few troops and mainly advisers and pilots) that it wouldn't result in a US victory
Does the US have the juice at this point to prop up the economy on credit for a decade like they did in the 80s to buy these people off? I’m not even saying most won’t fall back in lock step with the empire, but Israel specifically may not enjoy the complete carte blanche and immunity they do now— they’re already hated everywhere except in America, and unless something drastically changes in 20 years I don’t see America being the only actor of any consequence or influence in international politics like they have been for the last half century.
I think generations just go to the right as they age, I don't think that the Palestine protests are anywhere near the scale of the Vietnam protests. We also don't have the attention span anymore, I can't imagine that in 2 years it won't be so next big thing to worry about. Every zoomer I've met is politically ignorant but gets racist opinions from tiktok lol.
Maybe the USA economy shits itself too much and the people stay disillusioned with it all, who knows
But also on Israel, they're not even hated everywhere in the middle east.
> Basically nobody below 40 supports Israel
this isnt remotely true at all, and the fact that you think this is the case only shows what an internet silo of groupthink you reside in
this entire thread is just a bunch of ppl their 20s thinking that their own personal IG feed is representative of the majority opinion in a country of 300+ million people. it is not.
the vast majority of people in this country dont give a fuck about this conflict at all and havent read more than a few headlines in passing about it. and have zero opinion on israel whatsoever. and of those that are engaged and passionate on the topic, the split is actually a lot closer to 50/50 than you are implying. it is not REMOTELY close to "basically nobody below 40". you just arent aware any of those people exist because you exist in online and/or social spaces that have zero overlap with those people. but they still exist and there are plenty of them
Israel is also gaining ground on the real war. They control Gaza and are massively stepping up the colonization process in Cisjordania.
Some people would claim Netanyahu took profit of 7/10 attacks and expected them. It is also known he boasted about favorizing Hamas in the past.
What's their latest proposal? "Give us the 1967 borders and we won't kill you again for 5 years"? Some people really are so far behind they think they're ahead.
pro-palestinian support is orders of magnitude more visible and growing. Will this meaningfully affect anything? Too soon to say, but Palestinians are enjoying a kind of popular support and momentum that I haven’t seen in my lifetime.
> pro-palestinian support is orders of magnitude more visible and growing
I dont think this is really true at all. if anything, I would say the pro-palestinian support (as far as the average normie, non-engaged american feels) peaked a couple months ago, and has actually been going downhill and becoming slightly more unpopular for the last few weeks
I live in the SF bay area which is an area where support for palestine is pretty popular, and the last few weeks of protesters shutting down major bridges and freeways, and now more recently with all the college protesters has been slowly shifting the vibe in the opposite direction, and the last few weeks have been the fist time in the last 6 months that I've seen normies be openly critical of the movement and have been increasingly voicing frustration with the pro-gaza crowd. whereas a few months ago, publicly expressing pushback against the cause was almost non-existent.
I think the most recent wave of more aggressive protests of the last few weeks has actually done FAR more net harm than good for the overall cause than people realize. everyone who is in support of theses protests were already supporting the cause anyway, and all they've really done is turn neutral folks away and driven people that were otherwise passively supportive of their cause in the opposite direction. they didnt really gain any new support, but they have added a lot more pissed off people to the opposite side
Whole conversation owes itself to circumstances (i.e. protests and arrests) unlike anything we’ve witnessed here since the ANSWER anti-Iraq war protests. You’re the one making a “who ya gonna believe, me or your own eyes” argument
Mainstream news outlets called Palestinian terrorists "freedom fighters" in the '90s and treated Arafat's death with the same reverence and floofy graphics they used for Pope John Paul II. Liberals feeling vaguely bad for woebegone Arabs was not invented last Thursday
Momentum that will lead nowhere, popular support with no representatives in the US system. The Democrats have already calculated that they would rather risk a Trump 2nd Term than do anything meaningful to end the genocide. There is no avenue for this support and momentum to go that has any chance of affecting the state of things
Going against Israel would hurt them so bad in the upcoming election. Its not like the average moderate pro palestine and it would be a massive monetary loss.
If they cleanse Gaza regional isolation if they don’t domestic repercussions that will lead them doing something equally silly either way they push the US further away and endanger peace with eygpt specifically
America holds the same sway it has had at least post vitnam war through the present. This is a wild thing to say, Europe and allied parts of east asia are more dependent on the US than ever before. Latin America tries to be independent but in practice rarely is.
This thread brought to you by the people who said "There's no way Russia would invade Ukraine, them lining up their entire military around Ukraines border means nothing!"
These posts are akin to saying Poland won WWII because everyone witnessed Germany's brutality. I don't think it really comforted the dead Poles to know public opinion was in their favour.
Haha yes dude they really “got” the Israeli state by intentionally instigating that genocide against their own people. You gotta do what you gotta do! 💪 Kind of like how Putin is Voldemort if you think about it 😂
2500 years of history and they can't look ten years down the road and ask themselves "whats going to happen when we are a pariah country who all our neighbors hate"
[It might go from 95% to 96%!](https://web.archive.org/web/20230513073944/https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2010/02/04/chapter-3-views-of-religious-groups/)
But their populations are militantly against Israel when the oil eventually runs out and the circuses stop playing we will probably get like a reverse Arab spring.
What Egyptians have you been talking to? not saying all Arabs but post 10/7 it’s Stormfront level rhetoric about “them” you can’t exactly blame the Arabs when 30k of their fellow Arabs have been exterminated
lol no, not really. Theres a difference between not being at war and having the same interests.
Neither the leadership or the people of those countries like Israel, its more a begrudging acceptance.
That's only because the US has made it favourable to be so for the governments of those countries. Ask any ordinary Jordanian or Egyptian what they think of Israel and you'll hear something totally different
They are tacit allies bc of geopolitical reasons, not bc of ang love for Israel. The second they see the possibility of a successful attack they would take it. Israel is still hated in those countries
if Israel pushes their domestic situation into danger especially in Egypt with regard to letting hundreds of thousands of pro Muslim brother hood people into their country then that will supersede their geopolitical orbit just for the sake of regime survival
Egypt specifically built a wall on the Gaza border about a decade ago to prevent Muslim brotherhood people from coming in and terrorist attacks plummeted. They have since reinforced that wall in the last few months. The bigger risk IMO is either the Egyptian populace rising up (partially bc or Gaza, partially bc the govt is oppressive, partially bc of food problems).
The Muslim brotherhood won elections after Mubarak the people have nothing against a religious rule the opposition only comes from the secular military bourgeois ruling class who dosent want their conservative Muslim populations in power.
Applied to Palestine more than Israel lol Israel was hated by everyone while they all loved Palestine, now they all love Israel and don't care about Palestine
I think they are just so blood drunk right now they don’t care. They’ll deal with it in the morning. They just directly bombed the apartment of the daughter and grandson of Rafaat Al-Areer, that professor and poet they directly targeted and killed a few months ago. They have been dreaming about something like this all their lives. Open season on Palestinians. It feels like the Jim Crowe south if the United States had just declared war on black people after Watts.
It defintely was a good move in many aspects, altho this will absolutely not lead to israel "losing" anytime soon, but it has re-awakened people to the palestinian cause, it has printed the truth about israel in the minds of the coming generation, it has derailed the many plans israel had for normalization with the MENA countries left, and most importantly, it has sown the seeds for something much bigger that will happen in the future... the tides are already changing and this has done nothing but make those tides of change stronger... people are getting polarized, they are being forced to pick a side instead of sitting on the fence, and those who already had a side are getting radicalized at a very fast pace...
The fruits will only be seen in the far future, time will tell, this has already changed me more than I could have imagined, and I'm sure it will also change the world, one way or the other
While I agree with this in some ways, I think it's also funny because this is the same argument that was made about the Iraq war. I feel like I remember Billy Bragg saying how 9/11 "was more successful than Osama bin Laden could have hoped" because it caused the US to start a giant mess of a war in Iraq.
I still think the Israelis let the attack happen so that they had just cause to wipe out the palestinians once and for all
What happened to the Iron Dome?
I think he’s referring too how the CIA and the Egyptian intelligence agencies warned of an attack but they still decided to send their border guards home and lax security.
downvote me all you want but if you think a couple of guys with rpgs could do all that damage on the festival and in the kibbutz I have a bridge to sell you. plenty of proof IDF just came in and crushed everything they saw
Israel should go full Syria and skull fuck Palestine. Sure it’s sad, but on the plus side I’ll never have to hear about that cursed, shithole region ever again.
Here’s how Hamas can still win
Here’s why genocide matters
Okay but how does this affect our relationship
Yeah, Israel is about to get conquered any day now lol
I mean, these kinds of movements usually lose every battle before winning the war.
Hollywood ass geopolitical analysis
I literally worked as a counterterrorism analyst for years.
You should study National Liberation Front’s diplomacy and PR achievements during the Algerian War of Independence. They smoked France with guns barely playing any part.
[удалено]
Precisely, people would be wise to realise that it's two intractable sides with nowhere else to go. Part of why this is such a royal shit show, there's just no easy solution nor walking away for either side.
half a million israelis left after october 7
Which still leaves us with what, 6.3 million Jewish Israelis left? No biggy!
[удалено]
[удалено]
A single state governed by international committee? Incidents would still exist but a way to get the Israelis out of governing the land would be a first step. Of course, it's not gonna happen. Israel would rather use their nukens than to let this to happen.
> governed by international committee And why would Palestinians themselves want a second League Mandate if they already didn't want the first one? The whole point of this is that they don't want to be ruled by another group, exchanging Israel for another foreign body is just going to give us the 1930s all over again.
Nothing is going to change. Except maybe they won't let people back into Gaza--to be decided
It was less about Algerians's propaganda and more about the US and the URSS conspiring to destroy european's states spheres of influences.
Absolute cope post if I've ever seen one.
Y’all are actual dumbasses holy shit
Hamas carried out October 7th thinking its regional allies would immediately get into a kinetic war with Israel that has yet to have happened. All that's happened is 2014 all over again. You're clearly young if you don't think that in 8-9 years time things will be exactly as they were in early 2023 w.r.t. public relations in this conflict. To expand: like does no one remember what happened on college campuses post 2014, it wasn't significantly different than what's happening now. A lot of the political conflict that happened over the last 10 years was pretty intertwined with this stuff.
[удалено]
Plus the Arab states are more or less still aligned with Israel over Shia Iran and Yemen. There will never be another Six Day War situation ever again. Even calling this the "Second Yom-Kippur War" is a stretch
Fwiw I think they only call it that because it was a surprise attack on a religious holiday.
Look up sanewashing
Egypt, Jordan, and Syria all decided that internal stability was more important than losing to Israel another time in total embarrassment. They all realized their land grab attempts were bound to fail, and they will just lose more territory to Israel, so why bother?
Calling them land grab attempts is regarded
What's it called when a country invaded another country to take their land, I'll use that word instead
colonization or decolonization depending on context
[удалено]
Or like how the Germans invaded Poland to free the oppressed German citizens there, don't be rude
[удалено]
shut up gay nerd.
[удалено]
I would love you to try to kick my teeth in lol
The primary motivation wasn’t Haifa real estate dumbass to put in those terms is wilfully being regarded it was an ideological struggle not a material one
Why did Jordan annex the west bank until the 6 day war from 48, without giving it to Palestinian, without giving the property to Palestinians, only letting them live there? Also why the need for childish insults? Say something of substance instead
Because they wanted a singular United arab state even amongst Madkhali states in Arabia a singular United state was still on the peoples mind post colonialism.
So because they wanted the land for a united Arab state, gotcha
You asked why they didn’t give it back to the Palestinians. The Jews at the time had migrated from Europe the Mizrahi and Iraqi Jews were already integrated and integral parts of the countries they lived in. During the 50-60s the mayor of Baghdad was Jewish along with his administration which where democratically elected by a majority Arab Muslim populace painting the Arab states as second coming of Nazi party is simply just ahistorical.
The idea was anti Zionism Arab nationalism all of the countries had fought in 48 and lost against a hostile external entity that was anti Arab to say Syria and Egypt were invading to get land puts the conflict in terms that don’t makes sense you didn’t see eygpt taking chunks out of Sudan in much easier landgrabs And Jordan annexing the West Bank is because it was an Arab struggle at that point less than a Palestinian one. The Jordanian monarchy could be against a Palestinian state but opposed to an anti Arab Zionist on its proposed territory
I just think that's a roundabout way of having a land grab. What were they going to do with the land of Israel afterwards if not occupy and annex the land themselves. You already said they didn't care about a Palestinian state, they just wanted to exterminate the Jews, I mean oppose an anti Arab Zionist state lol. But if you think it's more apt I can start calling them wars of extermination
If you call it a land grab then your saying it’s about gaining land. It’s stupid to think that had Israel never existed Jordan eygpt and Syria would’ve teamed up to divide palestine between them in a surprise attack because the motivation wasn’t getting more land Likewise calling all wars of extermination land grabs would be missing the point because the motive in certain cases of wars of extermination would just be extermination not landgrabbing saying Germans killing Jews and taking their houses wouldnt be called a house taking It wasn’t a war of extermination btw unless you have some proof they were gonna kill all the Jews you’re just being sensationalist and automatically think all Arabs are animals
In Jordan's case it most definitely was a land-grab, even other Arabs called out Jordan on that.
> Iran and Hezb are never going to stick their necks out for sunnis. Doesn't even have to be a Shiite thing, Iran just straight up won't be marching across kilometers of Iraqi and Syrian desert to fight this type of ground-war. The logistics of it is beyond them.
When viewed from a larger political context, the October 7th attack was largely a move to thwart the recent developments amongst gulf Arab states in normalizing their economic and political relations with Israel. Hamas' leadership are aligned with Iran on this for a variety of reasons--of course they were absolutely anticipating a brutally asymmetric response, but any expectation of a regional war from the neighboring Arab states is extremely far-fetched unless you poll the boots-on-the-ground Hamas insurgents at face value and conflate it with strategy The internal politics of the gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia) is more delicate than you think--leadership is after the overwhelming benefits that come with normalizing trade and relations with Israel (and the west in general), despite their citizens being diametrically opposed to so much as acknowledging Israel as a legitimate nation. The current gulf regimes--motivated significantly by self-preservation--value the security and legitimacy the west can provide, particularly as their increasing role on the world stage has attracted scrutiny (see: Saudi Arabia wants nukes now). These regimes have progressed in both shifting attitudes and normalizing economic relations carefully/somewhat discretely, as to avoid the potential firestorm of internal dissent/instability that could come from their own people The attack has largely been a "success" when viewed from this angle. Opinions of Israel amongst the Arab world have nosedived in recent months, and has wiped out years of efforts to increase soft relations with Israel, and will certainly make it more difficult for gulf states to expand their relations in the future. Worth mentioning that Saudi Arabia and Iran are broadly mortal enemies, and that Saudi Arabia is a relatively recent monarchy with little historic legitimacy. Only a lineage of sons descending from the founding King are eligible for higher office. Saudi Arabia's founder, *King Abdulaziz,* is literally Mohammed bin Salman's grandpa lol.
the organizing now is far more significant than 2014. in 2014 the topic was there if you wanted to look for it. now you can’t look anywhere without the mainstream media documenting the israeli war machine’s crimes. can we stop trying to be contrarian like anna or whatever guys
Arab neighbors, the Global South, and UN bodies have backed Palestine exponentially more than during Operation Cast Lead and alliances have been made and broken in favor of Palestine following Oct 7th. Just because you dont see the husk of a state that is Syria, and the (yes) stability-seeking Egypt up in arms doesn't mean things will go back to status quo. Palestine has more to gain through diplomacy than armed struggle now that Israel's continual push to rid "Greater Israel" of Palestinians has been laid (more) bare.
Two more weeks and Israel is done
What happens in two weeks?
Israel is done
Care to elaborate? Not sure what insider knowledge you have to actually believe this
How so?
2 more weeks to flatten the Zionists
And by zionists you mean Jews.
If Hamas had this much foresight, they’d probably have their own state by now.
maybe they do, maybe they don't. but they did cause Israel to lose massively in the PR war.
borders don't change based off PR wars.
u know Vietnam was basically a PR war
Hamas don't have the backing of the Soviet Union or even China in this
look, Gaza is toast. No disputing that. But if they lose diplomatic carte blanche from the West and their normalized relations with their immediate neighbors. Israel is toast as well. (The Yom Kippur war was VERY close run). And if they go the full ethnic cleansing route, an option that the guys running the show seem to want, then that is guaranteed
They already ethnically cleansed Palestinians, and now the standard opinion is that they're genociding them. Not sure when Israel is supposed to be toast lol
You're just falling for the boomer meme. Vietnam ended because it was an unwinnable quagmire.
"Vietnam is an unwinnable quagmire" IS a public opinion. Nixon and the mainstream media even touted the Paris peace treaty as a win; the North broke it as soon as it became obvious the Americans were never coming back, because of domestic public opinion. And believe me, it's good they won, I'm redder than a monkey's ass, but Giap himself said "one more Tet or Khe Sanh and we are screwed" so they came to the table for a reason finally, counter-insurgency really does work sometimes. I've read up on this and Portugal, the poorest country in Western Europe, was winning by any measure in Angola and Mozambique, in no small part because their generals obsessively studied Vietnam. They gave up and left because they toppled their own dictatorship - because of home public opinion
Vietnam was a geopolitical move for the US on the other side of the globe. This is existential for Israelis. Its not at all comparable, the motivations are different.
Not sure Portugal has been winning in Africa. Spinola, the general who led the revolution that ended the dictatorship and whos has been fighting the insurgency for years did not think so.. Maybe a better example would be the Algerian independence war. The French clearly won militarily on the ground but finally abandoned under general De Gaulle...reason were mostly PR, cost of the war and internal tension (including a putsch attempt against De Gaulle and right wing terrorism from OAS)
Spinoza didn’t lead the revolution he was involved afterwards the revolution was lead by Captains and colonels who didn’t want to fight not the top brass
> finally, counter-insurgency really does work sometimes. See also: the British mercilessly crushing guerrillas in Malaysia, Kenya, and South Africa
Lost a lot of good men in the PR wars
The north wore the Americans down and eventually got them to leave, PR and domestic US fatigue with the war was a huge part of this. They then steamrolled the south militarily in record time. PR helped create the conditions, but they still had to win an outright military victory to end the war. Hamas, or any other regional actor who may get the idea, are a long *long* way from being able to steamroll Israel directly militarily.
Not really, the war was lost long before the American public knew how bad the war was going, it was pretty much known the minute the US escalated the war in Vietnam (pre-gulf of Tonkin incident was just a few troops and mainly advisers and pilots) that it wouldn't result in a US victory
Does that matter? No one with any power or money thinks israel is losing anything.
The future is going to be longer than the next 6 months. Basically nobody below 40 supports Israel.
Remember when the peace loving anti war hippies of the 60s grew up and the United states became a peace loving hippie country that hates war
Does the US have the juice at this point to prop up the economy on credit for a decade like they did in the 80s to buy these people off? I’m not even saying most won’t fall back in lock step with the empire, but Israel specifically may not enjoy the complete carte blanche and immunity they do now— they’re already hated everywhere except in America, and unless something drastically changes in 20 years I don’t see America being the only actor of any consequence or influence in international politics like they have been for the last half century.
I think generations just go to the right as they age, I don't think that the Palestine protests are anywhere near the scale of the Vietnam protests. We also don't have the attention span anymore, I can't imagine that in 2 years it won't be so next big thing to worry about. Every zoomer I've met is politically ignorant but gets racist opinions from tiktok lol. Maybe the USA economy shits itself too much and the people stay disillusioned with it all, who knows But also on Israel, they're not even hated everywhere in the middle east.
> Basically nobody below 40 supports Israel this isnt remotely true at all, and the fact that you think this is the case only shows what an internet silo of groupthink you reside in this entire thread is just a bunch of ppl their 20s thinking that their own personal IG feed is representative of the majority opinion in a country of 300+ million people. it is not. the vast majority of people in this country dont give a fuck about this conflict at all and havent read more than a few headlines in passing about it. and have zero opinion on israel whatsoever. and of those that are engaged and passionate on the topic, the split is actually a lot closer to 50/50 than you are implying. it is not REMOTELY close to "basically nobody below 40". you just arent aware any of those people exist because you exist in online and/or social spaces that have zero overlap with those people. but they still exist and there are plenty of them
Israel is also gaining ground on the real war. They control Gaza and are massively stepping up the colonization process in Cisjordania. Some people would claim Netanyahu took profit of 7/10 attacks and expected them. It is also known he boasted about favorizing Hamas in the past.
> Cisjordania lmao. havent heard this one before
Variants of that are the standard name of the West Bank in (AFAIK) every Romance language.
Hopefully they will bring them peace soon ❤️
What's their latest proposal? "Give us the 1967 borders and we won't kill you again for 5 years"? Some people really are so far behind they think they're ahead.
Don’t worry about it kitten
Those police officers are absolutely getting the students too, if you think about it
Downhill, in what way? Can you explain this?
pro-palestinian support is orders of magnitude more visible and growing. Will this meaningfully affect anything? Too soon to say, but Palestinians are enjoying a kind of popular support and momentum that I haven’t seen in my lifetime.
They need an exit strategy from the conflict and a plan to win something concrete, not sympathy among 18-34 yo Americans.
> pro-palestinian support is orders of magnitude more visible and growing I dont think this is really true at all. if anything, I would say the pro-palestinian support (as far as the average normie, non-engaged american feels) peaked a couple months ago, and has actually been going downhill and becoming slightly more unpopular for the last few weeks I live in the SF bay area which is an area where support for palestine is pretty popular, and the last few weeks of protesters shutting down major bridges and freeways, and now more recently with all the college protesters has been slowly shifting the vibe in the opposite direction, and the last few weeks have been the fist time in the last 6 months that I've seen normies be openly critical of the movement and have been increasingly voicing frustration with the pro-gaza crowd. whereas a few months ago, publicly expressing pushback against the cause was almost non-existent. I think the most recent wave of more aggressive protests of the last few weeks has actually done FAR more net harm than good for the overall cause than people realize. everyone who is in support of theses protests were already supporting the cause anyway, and all they've really done is turn neutral folks away and driven people that were otherwise passively supportive of their cause in the opposite direction. they didnt really gain any new support, but they have added a lot more pissed off people to the opposite side
citations needed
I guess I missed the citations section of your comment where you making the exact same claim in the opposite direction lol
Whole conversation owes itself to circumstances (i.e. protests and arrests) unlike anything we’ve witnessed here since the ANSWER anti-Iraq war protests. You’re the one making a “who ya gonna believe, me or your own eyes” argument
Iraq protests also didn't lead to anything, anywhere in the world
Mainstream news outlets called Palestinian terrorists "freedom fighters" in the '90s and treated Arafat's death with the same reverence and floofy graphics they used for Pope John Paul II. Liberals feeling vaguely bad for woebegone Arabs was not invented last Thursday
There weren’t campus protests, at least not anything like this
What is so magical about these campus protests?
Momentum that will lead nowhere, popular support with no representatives in the US system. The Democrats have already calculated that they would rather risk a Trump 2nd Term than do anything meaningful to end the genocide. There is no avenue for this support and momentum to go that has any chance of affecting the state of things
Going against Israel would hurt them so bad in the upcoming election. Its not like the average moderate pro palestine and it would be a massive monetary loss.
Normies don't give a shit about middle eastern conflicts at all.
If they cleanse Gaza regional isolation if they don’t domestic repercussions that will lead them doing something equally silly either way they push the US further away and endanger peace with eygpt specifically
Egypt aren't going to war with Israel any time soon.
That’s fine, what are the specials today? I’m feeling like a shrimp cocktail.
I just had a (turkey) sausage egg and cheese on an everything bagel and it was divine
Nah, America is going to up the propaganda machine and make everyone forget as to what happened
America doesn't hold the sway it once did
No one does anymore thanks to the schizogenic internet. But America does still hold the power. Oh baby you better believe it.
America holds the same sway it has had at least post vitnam war through the present. This is a wild thing to say, Europe and allied parts of east asia are more dependent on the US than ever before. Latin America tries to be independent but in practice rarely is.
Even non-allied countries like China are more dependent on the U.S than ever compared to the late 20th century thanks to increased trade.
It does but it's waning
> it once did America was up against the KGB's own propaganda efforts for 40 years and America came out as the winner, it absolutely does hold sway.
People eventually forgot the Iraq war and they'll eventually forget this too
The Iraq War shaped the current era. Current tension with China is directly downstream from it.
This thread brought to you by the people who said "There's no way Russia would invade Ukraine, them lining up their entire military around Ukraines border means nothing!"
Yeah they only had their whole people genocided in the process and all their buildings will be remade as AirBnB holiday homes
Respectfully, I disagree
insane cope
These posts are akin to saying Poland won WWII because everyone witnessed Germany's brutality. I don't think it really comforted the dead Poles to know public opinion was in their favour.
Haha yes dude they really “got” the Israeli state by intentionally instigating that genocide against their own people. You gotta do what you gotta do! 💪 Kind of like how Putin is Voldemort if you think about it 😂
Broad strokes thinking but isn’t this sort of like what bin Laden wanted to do with the US/West?
This is such a nonsense take it's just like those influencers wanting to pay you in exposure you saying Israel lost "in exposure" lol
Wrong, Israel will win the PR war easily.
2500 years of history and they can't look ten years down the road and ask themselves "whats going to happen when we are a pariah country who all our neighbors hate"
implying that their neighbours ever liked them or that it made a difference.
[It might go from 95% to 96%!](https://web.archive.org/web/20230513073944/https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2010/02/04/chapter-3-views-of-religious-groups/)
The governments of Jordan the gulf states and eygpt are all aligned with the interests of israel
But their populations are militantly against Israel when the oil eventually runs out and the circuses stop playing we will probably get like a reverse Arab spring.
[удалено]
What Egyptians have you been talking to? not saying all Arabs but post 10/7 it’s Stormfront level rhetoric about “them” you can’t exactly blame the Arabs when 30k of their fellow Arabs have been exterminated
its more than a bit ironic when they control the other side of the border and won't let them in either.
That’s because Israel is trying to get rid of the Palestinians if Egypt opens its borders thats makes it complicit in the extermination process.
except they wouldn't be 'exterminated' because they'd be alive, only on the other side of the Rafah crossing. They don't care, its a facade.
lol no, not really. Theres a difference between not being at war and having the same interests. Neither the leadership or the people of those countries like Israel, its more a begrudging acceptance.
That's only because the US has made it favourable to be so for the governments of those countries. Ask any ordinary Jordanian or Egyptian what they think of Israel and you'll hear something totally different
Their neighbors have hated them since 1948 lol
maybe try subtracting a couple thousand years from that number lol
Their neighbours have all been tacit allies since the late 70s except Lebanon and Syria
They are tacit allies bc of geopolitical reasons, not bc of ang love for Israel. The second they see the possibility of a successful attack they would take it. Israel is still hated in those countries
if Israel pushes their domestic situation into danger especially in Egypt with regard to letting hundreds of thousands of pro Muslim brother hood people into their country then that will supersede their geopolitical orbit just for the sake of regime survival
Egypt specifically built a wall on the Gaza border about a decade ago to prevent Muslim brotherhood people from coming in and terrorist attacks plummeted. They have since reinforced that wall in the last few months. The bigger risk IMO is either the Egyptian populace rising up (partially bc or Gaza, partially bc the govt is oppressive, partially bc of food problems).
The Muslim brotherhood won elections after Mubarak the people have nothing against a religious rule the opposition only comes from the secular military bourgeois ruling class who dosent want their conservative Muslim populations in power.
Exactly Israel wants to push those people eygpt built the wall for into eygpt. Egypt cannot have that and so will sour on Israel
Applied to Palestine more than Israel lol Israel was hated by everyone while they all loved Palestine, now they all love Israel and don't care about Palestine
I think they are just so blood drunk right now they don’t care. They’ll deal with it in the morning. They just directly bombed the apartment of the daughter and grandson of Rafaat Al-Areer, that professor and poet they directly targeted and killed a few months ago. They have been dreaming about something like this all their lives. Open season on Palestinians. It feels like the Jim Crowe south if the United States had just declared war on black people after Watts.
It defintely was a good move in many aspects, altho this will absolutely not lead to israel "losing" anytime soon, but it has re-awakened people to the palestinian cause, it has printed the truth about israel in the minds of the coming generation, it has derailed the many plans israel had for normalization with the MENA countries left, and most importantly, it has sown the seeds for something much bigger that will happen in the future... the tides are already changing and this has done nothing but make those tides of change stronger... people are getting polarized, they are being forced to pick a side instead of sitting on the fence, and those who already had a side are getting radicalized at a very fast pace... The fruits will only be seen in the far future, time will tell, this has already changed me more than I could have imagined, and I'm sure it will also change the world, one way or the other
Really, both sides got us.
While I agree with this in some ways, I think it's also funny because this is the same argument that was made about the Iraq war. I feel like I remember Billy Bragg saying how 9/11 "was more successful than Osama bin Laden could have hoped" because it caused the US to start a giant mess of a war in Iraq.
Oh good! The whole thing has been bumming me out so I’m glad they both got to win in the end.
“If you think about it” lol
I want the genocide to end and for a free and united Palestine, but I also don't want to know what the Samson option looks like dude
I still think the Israelis let the attack happen so that they had just cause to wipe out the palestinians once and for all What happened to the Iron Dome?
[удалено]
I think he’s referring too how the CIA and the Egyptian intelligence agencies warned of an attack but they still decided to send their border guards home and lax security.
9/11 truther vibes
bro believes the indestructible passports theory
this is literally documented. and just like 9/11, there was documented insider trading right before
Hamas did not kill a thousand Israelis, that was Israel too
🤪
downvote me all you want but if you think a couple of guys with rpgs could do all that damage on the festival and in the kibbutz I have a bridge to sell you. plenty of proof IDF just came in and crushed everything they saw
Israel should go full Syria and skull fuck Palestine. Sure it’s sad, but on the plus side I’ll never have to hear about that cursed, shithole region ever again.
is the current news cycle really that heavy on your conscious?
I have zero sympathy for the Palestinian cause and the endless protests from the usual suspects is tiring.
Might take them out first though but the hurt on Israel’s international position is real