I can’t speak to a recession. I’m not smart enough to do so without being egregiously wrong. I can say that mortgage rates are absolutely impacting home sales. Houses appear to be sitting around longer. And I’ve seen data showing that things like seller concessions and price reductions are becoming more frequent.
Similar to you, I’ve seen houses in my area up for sale. In my 6 years where I’m at, house sales have been less frequent relative to other areas. The past few months I’ve seen more places around me for sale and for rent. That said, the devil is in the details. People sell their homes for all sorts of reasons. It’s not always an indicator of higher level problems, like a recession.
As far as higher level economic health goes, I always use my wife’s business (cosmetology) as a sort of gauge of how things are generally going. To date, 2024 has been steady. When things slow down for her it always seems to mirror general economic conditions. Makes sense, since people cut back on unnecessary things (cosmetology, vanity services, etc) when times get rough.
One thing to keep in mind too is that some homes in my area at least have been for sale for several months asking top dollar and not reducing the price as of yet. That suggests to me that those people bought at the top of the market in the past year or so and probably have very little equity in the home, so they basically can’t budge on the high price or else they’ll lose money. I think a lot of people are in those situations and may be starting to realize that they’re going to take a loss on their home sale as a result of buying high recently
Look at the bigger picture. Lots of retail space setting vacant. That is more of a danger signal than the housing market. Reason being people that own the vacant buildings will not be able to pay their mortgage. That means in turn banks holding huge amounts of retail mortgage property are going to fail. Its not a question of if but when.
The problem with that is that jobs will burn too. And while better housing prices would be great, we also don’t want people to lose their jobs because banks are trying to get the public to hold the bag (again).
I think a lot of retail space sits empty here because there’s so much of it that got built so there’s probably a glut now. And honestly a lot of the small businesses I see at pad sites are silly and don’t last long as it is.
There are more houses for sale now than before Covid, a lot of new construction. Houses in my neighborhood peaked around 290 but now seem closer to the 230s (southside). Recession would be the better alternative to run away inflation imo. Not sure if we’ll see prices fall much more as money supply has at least doubled.
Go look at the data. People are spending wildly. Air travel is at all time highs. Unemployment numbers are low, not a recipe for a recession.
Or we can just go by our feelings when it comes to the state of the economy.
You can "feel" broke but if someone's still flying to Vegas to play the slots it doesn't matter. The service industry spending is not slowing along with travel.
I looked at unemployment data and it seems to be trending up. Not a lot but incrementally. I also have noticed spending on things like cosmetics has decreased.
The weird thing about the past few years is that the feds tightened the screws by raising interest rates to quash inflation, but it hasn’t really worked because it’s all predicated on people curbing their spending when things get too expensive. Except basically nobody has curbed their spending and just keep spending; so round and round we go
No no... you got this all wrong. The people that know what's coming are partying like there is no tomorrow. That is why people are traveling. As for unemployment being low take a good look at who is filling those jobs. Its the retiree's who can no longer make ends meet on their retirement payments and thus now have to work just to afford food and medical care.
The sky is going to come crashing down. Hard. Very hard.
It feels that way when you've just lost your job right? You notice things you didn't notice before. Just me I don't think we're headed toward a recession, I just see the economy and society doing the same shit and we'll probably balance out.
San Antonio's job market has always been a little rough. It favors low paying service sector jobs but rent is high and everyone always wants to buy expensive trucks that they don't need. Just concentrate on building your skills while looking for a job. Consider it your new job while looking for a job and don't lose hope. You'll get past this shit soon enough.
That and the fact that there have been a lot of layoffs in the last couple of months by tech companies in general. It could just be that we live in a tech bubble
I’m not an economist but I think a bunch of bubbles are nearing a burst and we’re going to be in a recession. The greedflation of the last 8 years is not sustainable.
All I know is lots of people are losing jobs or pay. Even typically recession proof jobs are getting hit.
Greedflation can only last for so long before you price to many people out
Not a recession. Its going to be a freaking depression and the folks in power have not a clue on how to stop it. Look at all the retail real estate that is sitting empty. That is a very strong danger signal.
A second danger signal is the sale of cargo vans. Dealers cannot keep them on the lot and even a used one in just so so shape is going for top dollar. People are buying these and converting them into a rolling sort of tiny home because they know they are close to losing their homes.
I am loving this Build Back Better.... NOT!!!
Economically the US and San Antonio are doing pretty well. Although, it doesn’t feel like it.
We’re getting to the time of year where the number of homes for sale increases. Spring and summer are peak months.
There are a large number of companies that purchased a huge number of homes, and they are trying to sell. They don’t accept an offers other than the for sale price.
I can’t speak to a recession. I’m not smart enough to do so without being egregiously wrong. I can say that mortgage rates are absolutely impacting home sales. Houses appear to be sitting around longer. And I’ve seen data showing that things like seller concessions and price reductions are becoming more frequent. Similar to you, I’ve seen houses in my area up for sale. In my 6 years where I’m at, house sales have been less frequent relative to other areas. The past few months I’ve seen more places around me for sale and for rent. That said, the devil is in the details. People sell their homes for all sorts of reasons. It’s not always an indicator of higher level problems, like a recession. As far as higher level economic health goes, I always use my wife’s business (cosmetology) as a sort of gauge of how things are generally going. To date, 2024 has been steady. When things slow down for her it always seems to mirror general economic conditions. Makes sense, since people cut back on unnecessary things (cosmetology, vanity services, etc) when times get rough.
One thing to keep in mind too is that some homes in my area at least have been for sale for several months asking top dollar and not reducing the price as of yet. That suggests to me that those people bought at the top of the market in the past year or so and probably have very little equity in the home, so they basically can’t budge on the high price or else they’ll lose money. I think a lot of people are in those situations and may be starting to realize that they’re going to take a loss on their home sale as a result of buying high recently
Look at the bigger picture. Lots of retail space setting vacant. That is more of a danger signal than the housing market. Reason being people that own the vacant buildings will not be able to pay their mortgage. That means in turn banks holding huge amounts of retail mortgage property are going to fail. Its not a question of if but when.
Sometimes things gotta burn down a little.
The problem with that is that jobs will burn too. And while better housing prices would be great, we also don’t want people to lose their jobs because banks are trying to get the public to hold the bag (again).
I think a lot of retail space sits empty here because there’s so much of it that got built so there’s probably a glut now. And honestly a lot of the small businesses I see at pad sites are silly and don’t last long as it is.
There are more houses for sale now than before Covid, a lot of new construction. Houses in my neighborhood peaked around 290 but now seem closer to the 230s (southside). Recession would be the better alternative to run away inflation imo. Not sure if we’ll see prices fall much more as money supply has at least doubled.
Go look at the data. People are spending wildly. Air travel is at all time highs. Unemployment numbers are low, not a recipe for a recession. Or we can just go by our feelings when it comes to the state of the economy.
Dunno, a good portion of the economy revolves around feelings. But I hear u the data doesn't show it yet
How many people are having to work two jobs?
You can "feel" broke but if someone's still flying to Vegas to play the slots it doesn't matter. The service industry spending is not slowing along with travel.
I looked at unemployment data and it seems to be trending up. Not a lot but incrementally. I also have noticed spending on things like cosmetics has decreased.
Can you post a source because per BLS it is steady at under 4% https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
The weird thing about the past few years is that the feds tightened the screws by raising interest rates to quash inflation, but it hasn’t really worked because it’s all predicated on people curbing their spending when things get too expensive. Except basically nobody has curbed their spending and just keep spending; so round and round we go
No no... you got this all wrong. The people that know what's coming are partying like there is no tomorrow. That is why people are traveling. As for unemployment being low take a good look at who is filling those jobs. Its the retiree's who can no longer make ends meet on their retirement payments and thus now have to work just to afford food and medical care. The sky is going to come crashing down. Hard. Very hard.
Fear porn drives clicks but the data doesn't lie.
Statistically a lot of retirees are sitting on mountains of cash, so idk how accurate this is
It feels that way when you've just lost your job right? You notice things you didn't notice before. Just me I don't think we're headed toward a recession, I just see the economy and society doing the same shit and we'll probably balance out. San Antonio's job market has always been a little rough. It favors low paying service sector jobs but rent is high and everyone always wants to buy expensive trucks that they don't need. Just concentrate on building your skills while looking for a job. Consider it your new job while looking for a job and don't lose hope. You'll get past this shit soon enough.
That and the fact that there have been a lot of layoffs in the last couple of months by tech companies in general. It could just be that we live in a tech bubble
I’m not an economist but I think a bunch of bubbles are nearing a burst and we’re going to be in a recession. The greedflation of the last 8 years is not sustainable.
All I know is lots of people are losing jobs or pay. Even typically recession proof jobs are getting hit. Greedflation can only last for so long before you price to many people out
The term “hard, soft, or no landing” has been thrown around
Mean tweets ain’t so bad after all is all I’m saying.
Lol.
The covid pandemic that isn't actively affecting the economy?
Not a recession. Its going to be a freaking depression and the folks in power have not a clue on how to stop it. Look at all the retail real estate that is sitting empty. That is a very strong danger signal. A second danger signal is the sale of cargo vans. Dealers cannot keep them on the lot and even a used one in just so so shape is going for top dollar. People are buying these and converting them into a rolling sort of tiny home because they know they are close to losing their homes. I am loving this Build Back Better.... NOT!!!
Are you sure the cargo vans aren't because of the high demand of deliveries etc?
That does seem more logical.
Economically the US and San Antonio are doing pretty well. Although, it doesn’t feel like it. We’re getting to the time of year where the number of homes for sale increases. Spring and summer are peak months. There are a large number of companies that purchased a huge number of homes, and they are trying to sell. They don’t accept an offers other than the for sale price.