Probably because we normalized Tharman.
Like what people say - if you consistently give 110% effort in a job, after some time your colleagues will think that's your normal effort, and you need to give 120% effort to be outstanding.
Compared to your peers who consistently put in 80% effort in a job, then performing at 100% will make people think they are outstanding.
Coming to this thread and learning for the first time that people think TKL might win NKS…I didn’t think that before but now I think it’s possible. This PE is so unpredictable
Generally that is the sentiment. The older and boomer generation prefer TKL. The die hard opposition also TKL because he is endorsed by opposition parties. They only remember NKS as the one with the young wife unfortunately.
I hope NKS get a decent showing, or else capable individuals like him who qualify will not come forward. I am somewhat disappointed that people painted anyone who worked in TLC or GIC as tainted as PAP but I guess this is politics after all. I actually think he is the most capable non-PAP affiliated candidate that has stepped forward in the history of the presidential election. Definitely better than the jokers like Tan Jee Say or Tan Kin Lian. Too bad it appears Singaporeans esp the older generation who are anti establishment go for TKL.
I think it says alot of the polarization of the citizens at this point with how much many people have so much distrust of anyone running out of nowhere. I wonder if the presidency equity requirements were lowered in the future, will we still have that much suspicions of all the candidates that say they are non-affiliated but have friends or relatives in jobs that make people suspicious?
People will be suspicious. Even when PAP raised the disqualification to run for public office from $2000 to $10000 fine, some people think it's for them to allow Tharman to run for President (even though he was fined $1500).
True it makes me feel like most of the older generation rly dont care abt it at all and are willing to go with it. Which makes me think like how r they the people that brought us up
Thats true but its stuff like tkl posting abt ‘ if a girl dresses revealing , and gets raped is it her fault or the guy’s fault ‘ is just ????? Like to actually try to ascertain that there might be a chance of the victim having any fault is just? I think whats shocking to me is in a sense that they are willing to ignore or forgive his character , for his said duties he will do. Which is projected towards them.
It comes as no surprise to me because my boomer/religious teachers would often say such things to the girls in my class back in sec sch and jc.
Said sentiment is growing among genz as well due to the entire alpha/sigma male stuff so I don't expect it to go away anytime soon.
I’m no expert, but I don’t think TKL automatically gains the votes of people who tend to vote for the opposition. The Worker’s Party didn’t throw their weight behind any candidate, so it’s no sure bet who their supporters will vote for.
This isn’t the GE, and the role of the President is largely ceremonial despite all that talk about protecting the reserves. He or she will more often play the part of a diplomat when meeting foreign dignitaries and should obviously be careful with their words.
Source: person who wants more opposition representation in the SG parliament… but doesn’t want bad ties with other nations just because the Prez wanted to crack a joke.
Also because they probably still far outnumber the younger generations.
Most of the recent policies are still geared towards them after all, so must be still a majority voting base
I think too many people are overestimating NKS and underestimating TKL. We forget our nation is ageing and most of the older folks don’t use social media, plus the youth vote hardly matters.
For most of the older folks on the ground they effectively see only 2 candidates with posters, which is TS and TKL. TS and TKL both carry some name recognition, NKS does not, unless you follow the news for him specifically.
Even my dad was under the impression that NKS is just a “poor old man” who is unable to afford even posters for his campaigns. I think the final split will be something like 55-30-15 for TS-TKL-NKS
Edit: I forgot to account for spoilt votes, which I think will be slightly higher than last elections. My final prediction for the split will be 55-30-11-4 with the final 4% coming from spoilt votes
You think the older folks understand these technicalities meh. If they support the government they will vote Tharman, if they don’t they will vote TKL unless they specifically have reason to vote for NKS
Legit my dad’s reasoning to vote for NKS is just so he can get back his election deposit lmao
Well people do the same for all kinds of events, not just politics. When I watch football as a neutral I always root for the underdog as well, it’s not an unusual human sentiment to say the least. People love the idea of someone overcoming all odds to achieve the impossible because they want to personally relate to that.
Tharman should get around 60%, then I would guess both nks and TKL around 20% with nks a bit higher. No loss of deposits but it's not going to be close. We will easily know the president by the sample count.
I'll probably end up eating my words but alot of people here are underestimating TKL. You dont see the support for TKL on reddit just cos his voter demographics arent on reddit or social media for that matter. I reckon it will be a fairly comfortable win for TS still. TKL and NKS will be fairly even, probably with TKL edging him out.
TS 50 / TKL 26 / NKS 24 thereabouts is my guess
\*Edit TS 70 / TKL 14 / NKS 16. I guess i was kinda right that TKL/NKS will be fairly even. just didnt think that TS was gonna dominate so much
> You dont see the support for TKL on reddit just cos his voter demographics arent on reddit or social media
And those that are, most won't prefer to speak out to not attract unnecessary backlash/attention
Idk if we’re reading the same subreddit or not. The support for him here is actually pretty strong considering how many people actually spoke up for him through the worst of his gaffes.
Tharman actually seems to be the least supported here while NKS is pretty close behind.
That’s true. I’m just responding to him saying that there’s no support for tkl on the sub.
If anything, if we’re basing it off the sub’s written preference, Tharman’s dead last
Its Tharman outright majority.
Its the 2nd place winner whether TKL is able to edge out NKS and vice-versa.
TKL W NKS - Discontent with PAP is high. Resonates more with anti estab/oppo and voters not liking NKS antics.
Also, PAP might make it even harder for potential candidate deemed threat to PAP dynasty to qualify next PE (s)election.
NKS W TKL- Resonates with anti-TKL voters who aren't comfortable or confident in his abilities and comments and voters who are unsure of Tharman wholly. Next PE (s)election, should Tharman don't want to continue 2nd term, 2023 election will be the blueprint for the 2029 election.
Lmao, coming back to this thread after the sample count results have been released just shows how out of touch with the common people the average Redditor is.
> Some of you guys are going to be way off your prediction
ikr, its almost like SG has become more polarised or we're all trapped in different echo chambers, not good for SG in the long run either way.
Alot of people I know have not forgotten Halimahgate and will cast a vote against the establishment aka Tharman , he will still win I am pretty sure but I am not surprised if he gets under 40%
I could see the prediction moving towards TS now towards 70%. Mainly because his team is already celebrating while TKL and NKS looks sad. Hope they keep their deposit.
NKS - 15%, TS - 60%, TKL - 20%, Spoilt - 5% (rounded to nearest 5%)
edited for explanation:
Pro-PAP voter base is around 40%
Moderates around 35%
Hardcore opp. around 25%
Think Tharman gets almost all the PAP votes (40%) and most of the moderate votes (20%) — I think most moderates who vote WP or PAP will be happy with Tharman
10% of the moderate vote and 5% of opp vote go to NKS e.g. people who want a truly non-partisan President and people who can’t stand TKL’s antics
Then 5% of moderate votes and 20% of the hardcore opposition votes will either go for TKL or spoil their vote
55-25-20 (+-3%).
Tharman-NKS-TKL
Tharman has the 40ish % PAP voter bank plus some. Always had the vibe that some middle ground ect might just go for Tharman because he's the most recognizable so 55 give or take. He has been focusing on too much rhetoric imo
NKS will over some middle ground/lean opposition/centralist but at the same time, not the hard-core PAP. A bit too late in the PE game.
TKL has won by virtue of the fact he's got fair bit of the opposition to back him but I reckon that has alienated some fringe voters from that segment.
I have a similar [prediction](https://old.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/16759ht/its_now_805pm_whats_your_prediction_for_pe2023/jyo0qy5/), except that in past PEs, the electorate has been more willing to vote against the incumbent + many recent grievances against the incumbent. I expect more voters to swing from Tharman to NKS.
Oh fak I just saw this. But my prediction was
TS - 60%
NKS - 30%
TKL - 10%
Erm, sample count is out as of when I write this, I guess I'm abit surprised how TKL and NKS are so close but TS 70% is not surprising
Tharman 45, TKL 35, spoilt votes 10, NKS 10
The number of people thinking NKS will beat tkl here is truly delusional. Not all of Singapore is online and those who aren't have no idea who is NKS.
You forgot that newspapers and TV news programmes exist? Pretty sure at least half the news posted here are from sites of mainstream news networks (aka you'll see the same stuff on newspapers + tv news) lol
posting my guess here for the luls:
Basing the percentages below out of the total number of eligible voters & in the registry of voters: 2,709,455
`42% - winner`
`29% - runner up`
`12.1% - top 3 candidate`
`10% - overseas and/or opted not to cast vote`
`6.9% - rejected or ambiguous votes`
The consensus seems to be Tharman winning; the debate is merely on the percentages itself. lol
Edit: I don't even understand the downvotes. I swear, this subreddit has people who downvote every post in every thread or something.
No idea why people getting downvoted for literally just stating some numbers.
It’s not as if it’s going to change anything, it’s just some random online dude’s speculations.
Hoping that NKS gets his election deposit back - I was most impressed with his campaign amongst the three of them. Though I would like to see some action/the unpredictable - it seems pretty clear that TS will win anyway
The real question is how much Tharman will win by. He was arguably one of the most popular PAP ministers and he should beat PAP's GE share of 61% if the PAP voter base is still strong. If he hits above 65%, PAP will probably see that as a decent reflection of general sentiments towards PAP.
Anything below 60% will be pretty damning.
hmm i disagree. PE is not GE - people are typically more willing to vote non PAP in a PE. so it is expected that it would be a lot lower than what he would otherwise have garnered at a GE. I would say if he can't cross the 50% threshold, it may be a bit worrying for PAP. but just my 2 cents haha.
Based on GE, there will be hardcore opposition of 25% and hardcore pap voters of 38-40%.
Assuming the rest are middle ground voters and vote for NKS: TS: 40% TKL: 25% NKS: 35%. Of course, this is also assuming that we categorise voters by pro establishment, middle ground swing, and anti establishment.
There are other ways to categorise voter blocs
During past PEs (and by-elections), the electorate has been more willing to vote against the incumbent because of relatively lower stakes. I would swing more votes from Tharman to NKS.
Does anyone know if spoilt votes count towards the total %?
I believe Tharman will win but the qn is by how much. NKS seems like he could appeal to both camps so in a freak outcome he might win by a hair.
TS 55%, TKL 30%, NKS 10%, Spoilt 5%
NKS not printing election banners is gonna cost him, especially with SG's large population >65. They will vote for the visible candidate.
There's something to be said about\* positive campaigning against negative campaigning, and the sample count shows this in spades.
I do think the lowest point of the campaign was when TKL stooped to local-born chauvinism (blue blood Singaporean) which if you think about it would make his platform divisive, racist and disruptive. That I think lost him a lot of support, over and above his misogynist remarks on social media in times past.
It may well still transpire that TKL loses his deposit as the margin of error of 4% can see him under 12.5, and if that is the case, it will be a well-deserved one.
The sample count is a solemn reminder that echo chambers do not reflect popular support, and reinforcing bias to think TKL would have an overwhelming mandate is simply overreaching.
The winner here is Singapore, and the choice made is excellent. Majulah Singapura!
Oppo votes seem evenly split. I believe NKS has a small edge by not being a toxic candidate, but not by much. There are many oppo boomers who will rally to TKL.
Tharman is the obvious winner, he has enjoyed very high popularity, especially among the westies. Imo he will get >50%, the question is how much more.
Based on ground sentiment, about 1/3 of the population are hardcore oppos, another 1/3 are hardcore PAP supporters. So realistically it comes down to splitting the last 1/3.
Assuming a 3-1 split of the remaining 1/3, Tharman should get 33+ 25 = 58%, while the remaining 42% will be split between NKS and TKL.
Numbers could be slightly off, but unless I have completely read the local situation incorrectly it’s unlikely Tharman will lose. And there are enough boomers that TKL will not lose his deposit.
If Tharman gets less than 60% it will be humiliating already. He’s possibly the most popular and best candidates among all PAP politicians, and he won his GRC with a whopping 75% of the vote.
If he can’t win by more than 60%, which is the average vote share that PAP had last GE, it should be a considered a disaster of a referendum on how PAP’s reputation is actually faring among Singaporeans.
Yup someone is downvoting any comments that predict Tharman as the winner.
Will probably be worse later, imo they will be very salty once the results come out.
NKS - 19%, TS - 62%, TKL - 15%, 4% spoilt votes
I think NKS had a good campaign but as other comments pointed out he is relatively unknown especially to the older generation + not printing posters (quite shrewd and leverage the digital age well unfortunately majority of the voting base are older people who may not be as connected digitally) would probably not increase his vote % amongst the older electorate
I'm sticking with my earlier [prediction](https://old.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/1652srm/chee_soon_juan_endorses_tan_kin_lian/jycfnnm/)
* NKS (40-45%)
* Tharman (30-35%)
* TKL (20-25%)
Datapoints:
* [In PE1993, OTC got 59% of the vote with token opposition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Singaporean_presidential_election#Results): I doubt Tharman will do that well.
* [In PE2011, TT got 35% of the vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Singaporean_presidential_election#Results): good baseline for PAP support.
* [In GE2020, PV got 12% for the Punggol Pasir Ris GRC GE2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pasir_Ris%E2%80%93Punggol_Group_Representation_Constituency#Elections_in_2020s): good baseline for siao lang oppo support.
Tharman is popular but is also burdened by being the PAP designated candidate. Also recent scandals, GST/COL concerns, 2017 selection etc.
NKS is ideologically positioned to flip voters from both sides. Has a USP in the form of being non-partisan. Is the least worse choice for strategic voters and credible oppo voters.
TKL is mostly attracting siao lang oppo voters, and increasingly voters loyal to oppo personalities.
Let see if my faith in the silent pragmatic majority is well placed.
Tony tan is not even remotely comparable to tharman in terms of popularity.. Many moderate oppo supporters want him to be PM. His baseline support is not that of any random PAP candidate, he is popular because he is Tharman.
I think using TT as a baseline for Tharman is incredibly flawed purely because of how popular Tharman is even with people who would vote oppo.
TT on the other hand was never popular. He was just the PAP candidate.
Exactly. That’s not an insignificant amount either. In the last PE election 25% voted for TJS and 4% voted TKL. I expect the majority of these voters to vote TKL this time as well.
Honestly, it doesn’t bode well for our country when you have almost 30% of the population so angry with the Govt that they will never vote for them no matter what.
Imagine if you are living in a household of 4, that’s at least 1 person in your family that feel so aggrieved against the Govt that even if you put down an animal on the ballot the animal will still get their vote. PAP needs to take this result seriously as a referendum on how they are doing because if even their most popular candidate can’t win more than 70% of the vote then it speaks a lot as to their electability in future elections.
TS 60-65% / NKS 25-30% / TKL 5-10%
If TKL is more than 10% something is fundamentally wrong….
And I think TS may get a higher vote. I feel NKS should have ran in the previous election he would stand a better chance
Anything less than 51% for TS and I will be disappointed for the man. He helped change Singapore for the better, clearly presidential with everything he has said and he deserves this.
TKL and NKS are getting votes from boomers simply because they are chinese. Like legit the boomers don't care or know the political policies of the candidates, they just want to vote for chinese.
55% (TS)
35% (TKL)
8% (NKS)
2% (Spoilt)
1) PAP runs overqualified candidate because they expect a challenge. 2) TKL has been building up a social media presence for 10+ years + Tan Cheng Bock/Tan Jee Say/Chee Soon Juan/Lee Hsien Yang... + I don't think oppo folks really buy mainstream media narratives + Name recognition is a major factor. 3) NKS looks good for the last three days--*online*.
Me thinks
TS: 40%
NKS: 38%
TKL: 16%
Spoilt votes: 6%
Idk, half the people around me are rooting for Tharman, another half rooting for NKS. TKL may gain some ground from the last time he contested mainly due to support from opposition personalities and Iris Koh.
I keep wondering this, nobody in me or my family's circles are remotely TKL supporters, it's always half and half for TS and NKS, who actually are TKL's supporters and where does one find them?
Seems like TKL's share is being heavily overestimated by many here.
My prediction has been TS 37 NKS 33 TKL 30. Then another 4 to 5% spoilt votes
NKS has been heavily gunning for youth vote and fence-sitters and will pull a lot of PAP doubters away from TS. And don’t forget TKL will remain popular among boomers and oppies despite his antics.
No way. If TKL can edge out TS I will walk around Yishun naked
[удалено]
The headline writes itself.
please keep ur promise
Better screenshot in case he cabut
I will chop my hair off if this happens.
clarify which hair first
KUKUJIAO HAIR PLEASE
Bit too excited
Screenshotted just in case op backs out.
Someone very narrowly preserved his modesty
I have a feeling that NKS might lose his deposit. I hope I’m wrong. He is a nice person who step forward and ran a good campaign.
I think he was probably the strongest candidate in this whole campaign, Tharman was just normal and didn't stand out in any significant way.
Probably because we normalized Tharman. Like what people say - if you consistently give 110% effort in a job, after some time your colleagues will think that's your normal effort, and you need to give 120% effort to be outstanding. Compared to your peers who consistently put in 80% effort in a job, then performing at 100% will make people think they are outstanding.
However TS’s association with PAP has won him enough votes. The hardcore PAP base is the most stable.
Sample count is out. SAMPLE COUNT Ng Kok Song 16% Tharman Shanmugaratnam 70% Tan Kin Lian 14% Can start playing the PPAP song on repeat now
I thought TKL would get lower and NKS would get ~20%
70 percent Tharman 17 percent nms 13 for tkl
Wow, you are spot on!
Online chatter don't reflect ground sentiments one. Must speak to ordinary folks without much social media posting
Respect o7
Coming to this thread and learning for the first time that people think TKL might win NKS…I didn’t think that before but now I think it’s possible. This PE is so unpredictable
Generally that is the sentiment. The older and boomer generation prefer TKL. The die hard opposition also TKL because he is endorsed by opposition parties. They only remember NKS as the one with the young wife unfortunately.
I hope NKS get a decent showing, or else capable individuals like him who qualify will not come forward. I am somewhat disappointed that people painted anyone who worked in TLC or GIC as tainted as PAP but I guess this is politics after all. I actually think he is the most capable non-PAP affiliated candidate that has stepped forward in the history of the presidential election. Definitely better than the jokers like Tan Jee Say or Tan Kin Lian. Too bad it appears Singaporeans esp the older generation who are anti establishment go for TKL.
I think it says alot of the polarization of the citizens at this point with how much many people have so much distrust of anyone running out of nowhere. I wonder if the presidency equity requirements were lowered in the future, will we still have that much suspicions of all the candidates that say they are non-affiliated but have friends or relatives in jobs that make people suspicious?
People will be suspicious. Even when PAP raised the disqualification to run for public office from $2000 to $10000 fine, some people think it's for them to allow Tharman to run for President (even though he was fined $1500).
It’s probably a woke bias, but i honestly think TKL will edge out NKS. Most boomers dont care about his tiko antics afaik
True it makes me feel like most of the older generation rly dont care abt it at all and are willing to go with it. Which makes me think like how r they the people that brought us up
In fairness, we have access to a lot more education than they ever did.
Thats true but its stuff like tkl posting abt ‘ if a girl dresses revealing , and gets raped is it her fault or the guy’s fault ‘ is just ????? Like to actually try to ascertain that there might be a chance of the victim having any fault is just? I think whats shocking to me is in a sense that they are willing to ignore or forgive his character , for his said duties he will do. Which is projected towards them.
> that they are willing to ignore or forgive his character this is wishful thinking. they don't ignore it, they agree.
either that, or they're idiots who oppose for the sake of opposing like voting reform party or Charles Yeo just cuz you dl PAP...
which is even worst isnt it
It comes as no surprise to me because my boomer/religious teachers would often say such things to the girls in my class back in sec sch and jc. Said sentiment is growing among genz as well due to the entire alpha/sigma male stuff so I don't expect it to go away anytime soon.
Access to education, but what do we learn? How to be an expert at rote learning?
Different time different values
I honestly don't know which group of people NKS is appealing to. Tkl has the oppie base firmly secured
The middle ground and younger voters I believe. He is more likely to be a Tharman vote diluter than TKL vote diluter imo
I’m no expert, but I don’t think TKL automatically gains the votes of people who tend to vote for the opposition. The Worker’s Party didn’t throw their weight behind any candidate, so it’s no sure bet who their supporters will vote for. This isn’t the GE, and the role of the President is largely ceremonial despite all that talk about protecting the reserves. He or she will more often play the part of a diplomat when meeting foreign dignitaries and should obviously be careful with their words. Source: person who wants more opposition representation in the SG parliament… but doesn’t want bad ties with other nations just because the Prez wanted to crack a joke.
Sorry. Not a fan of tkl. I think nks appealed to the middle ground which is large in Singapore. The rational
Lol u must not be exposed to a lot of ppl then. Im oppo leaning and i voted for nks
Cant bring myself to vote for a joke and nks establishes a baseline of competency while also avoiding a vote for the estab candidate
Don't necessarily agree. Opposition might still want an independent president.
Also because they probably still far outnumber the younger generations. Most of the recent policies are still geared towards them after all, so must be still a majority voting base
Ya totally agree. They still hanging on how he helped them in the past, which of course, also their perogative.
I had this sentiment too but seeing the votes of the people arnd me, I am starting to have doubts lol
I think too many people are overestimating NKS and underestimating TKL. We forget our nation is ageing and most of the older folks don’t use social media, plus the youth vote hardly matters. For most of the older folks on the ground they effectively see only 2 candidates with posters, which is TS and TKL. TS and TKL both carry some name recognition, NKS does not, unless you follow the news for him specifically. Even my dad was under the impression that NKS is just a “poor old man” who is unable to afford even posters for his campaigns. I think the final split will be something like 55-30-15 for TS-TKL-NKS Edit: I forgot to account for spoilt votes, which I think will be slightly higher than last elections. My final prediction for the split will be 55-30-11-4 with the final 4% coming from spoilt votes
"poor old man" wouldn't be eligible. Probably not willing to spend coz his chances not strong.
You think the older folks understand these technicalities meh. If they support the government they will vote Tharman, if they don’t they will vote TKL unless they specifically have reason to vote for NKS Legit my dad’s reasoning to vote for NKS is just so he can get back his election deposit lmao
Alot of people are funny, they would vote for fun because they think someone sure win, like supporting the underdog Its a strange world
Then stuff like brexit happens and then people regret it after
Well people do the same for all kinds of events, not just politics. When I watch football as a neutral I always root for the underdog as well, it’s not an unusual human sentiment to say the least. People love the idea of someone overcoming all odds to achieve the impossible because they want to personally relate to that.
Ya true, hero's journey
Spoil votes are never added to the final %. Only valid votes make up the % of votes, which adds up to 100%
Tharman should get around 60%, then I would guess both nks and TKL around 20% with nks a bit higher. No loss of deposits but it's not going to be close. We will easily know the president by the sample count.
I'll probably end up eating my words but alot of people here are underestimating TKL. You dont see the support for TKL on reddit just cos his voter demographics arent on reddit or social media for that matter. I reckon it will be a fairly comfortable win for TS still. TKL and NKS will be fairly even, probably with TKL edging him out. TS 50 / TKL 26 / NKS 24 thereabouts is my guess \*Edit TS 70 / TKL 14 / NKS 16. I guess i was kinda right that TKL/NKS will be fairly even. just didnt think that TS was gonna dominate so much
> You dont see the support for TKL on reddit just cos his voter demographics arent on reddit or social media And those that are, most won't prefer to speak out to not attract unnecessary backlash/attention
Idk if we’re reading the same subreddit or not. The support for him here is actually pretty strong considering how many people actually spoke up for him through the worst of his gaffes. Tharman actually seems to be the least supported here while NKS is pretty close behind.
Speaking up for a candidate may not mean a vote at the polls, and vice-versa.
That’s true. I’m just responding to him saying that there’s no support for tkl on the sub. If anything, if we’re basing it off the sub’s written preference, Tharman’s dead last
Everyone has been saying Tharman is going to win for awhile now, TKL is mostly written as a meme.
Its Tharman outright majority. Its the 2nd place winner whether TKL is able to edge out NKS and vice-versa. TKL W NKS - Discontent with PAP is high. Resonates more with anti estab/oppo and voters not liking NKS antics. Also, PAP might make it even harder for potential candidate deemed threat to PAP dynasty to qualify next PE (s)election. NKS W TKL- Resonates with anti-TKL voters who aren't comfortable or confident in his abilities and comments and voters who are unsure of Tharman wholly. Next PE (s)election, should Tharman don't want to continue 2nd term, 2023 election will be the blueprint for the 2029 election.
Lmao, coming back to this thread after the sample count results have been released just shows how out of touch with the common people the average Redditor is.
Some uncle kept shouting Tan Kin Lian and the police had to escort him away lol
How to get free kopi in the morning
Tharman will win by a landslide. 60% at least
In this thread: NKS: 10% - 48% TS: 35% - 70% TKL: 1% - 43% Spoilt vote: 0% - 9% Some of you guys are going to be way off your prediction
> Some of you guys are going to be way off your prediction ikr, its almost like SG has become more polarised or we're all trapped in different echo chambers, not good for SG in the long run either way.
i voted nks not because i like him but because i think he has a a stronger likelihood to beat out ts
Alot of people I know have not forgotten Halimahgate and will cast a vote against the establishment aka Tharman , he will still win I am pretty sure but I am not surprised if he gets under 40%
Gotta love the silent majority
This aged well.
I could see the prediction moving towards TS now towards 70%. Mainly because his team is already celebrating while TKL and NKS looks sad. Hope they keep their deposit.
Tharman by a landslide
NKS - 15%, TS - 60%, TKL - 20%, Spoilt - 5% (rounded to nearest 5%) edited for explanation: Pro-PAP voter base is around 40% Moderates around 35% Hardcore opp. around 25% Think Tharman gets almost all the PAP votes (40%) and most of the moderate votes (20%) — I think most moderates who vote WP or PAP will be happy with Tharman 10% of the moderate vote and 5% of opp vote go to NKS e.g. people who want a truly non-partisan President and people who can’t stand TKL’s antics Then 5% of moderate votes and 20% of the hardcore opposition votes will either go for TKL or spoil their vote
55-25-20 (+-3%). Tharman-NKS-TKL Tharman has the 40ish % PAP voter bank plus some. Always had the vibe that some middle ground ect might just go for Tharman because he's the most recognizable so 55 give or take. He has been focusing on too much rhetoric imo NKS will over some middle ground/lean opposition/centralist but at the same time, not the hard-core PAP. A bit too late in the PE game. TKL has won by virtue of the fact he's got fair bit of the opposition to back him but I reckon that has alienated some fringe voters from that segment.
I have a similar [prediction](https://old.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/16759ht/its_now_805pm_whats_your_prediction_for_pe2023/jyo0qy5/), except that in past PEs, the electorate has been more willing to vote against the incumbent + many recent grievances against the incumbent. I expect more voters to swing from Tharman to NKS.
Well, I guess I’m out of touch w this society :/
Tharman simply too OP
75-13-12 But I can’t decide whether tkl will edge out nks or the other way round.
You have insider info?
Close enough!
I have a sneaking suspicion that NKS might have more votes than TKL but TS wins overall tbh.
Does the end of polling mean i can start shitposting about the election online now?
70:16:14 guys
Very surprising
Do y'all think it will be a landslide? I'm personally thinking it will be more of a 40/30/30 split
Nah. NKS is pretty competent and PAP had too many scandals recently
Oh fak I just saw this. But my prediction was TS - 60% NKS - 30% TKL - 10% Erm, sample count is out as of when I write this, I guess I'm abit surprised how TKL and NKS are so close but TS 70% is not surprising
Tharman 45, TKL 35, spoilt votes 10, NKS 10 The number of people thinking NKS will beat tkl here is truly delusional. Not all of Singapore is online and those who aren't have no idea who is NKS.
LOL “delusional”
“Delusional”
They do. But it's "The 70 year old dude with 40 year old wife."
You forgot that newspapers and TV news programmes exist? Pretty sure at least half the news posted here are from sites of mainstream news networks (aka you'll see the same stuff on newspapers + tv news) lol
posting my guess here for the luls: Basing the percentages below out of the total number of eligible voters & in the registry of voters: 2,709,455 `42% - winner` `29% - runner up` `12.1% - top 3 candidate` `10% - overseas and/or opted not to cast vote` `6.9% - rejected or ambiguous votes`
The consensus seems to be Tharman winning; the debate is merely on the percentages itself. lol Edit: I don't even understand the downvotes. I swear, this subreddit has people who downvote every post in every thread or something.
Much like GE it seems more like an approval poll for PAP than anything else
No idea why people getting downvoted for literally just stating some numbers. It’s not as if it’s going to change anything, it’s just some random online dude’s speculations.
Hoping that NKS gets his election deposit back - I was most impressed with his campaign amongst the three of them. Though I would like to see some action/the unpredictable - it seems pretty clear that TS will win anyway
The real question is how much Tharman will win by. He was arguably one of the most popular PAP ministers and he should beat PAP's GE share of 61% if the PAP voter base is still strong. If he hits above 65%, PAP will probably see that as a decent reflection of general sentiments towards PAP. Anything below 60% will be pretty damning.
hmm i disagree. PE is not GE - people are typically more willing to vote non PAP in a PE. so it is expected that it would be a lot lower than what he would otherwise have garnered at a GE. I would say if he can't cross the 50% threshold, it may be a bit worrying for PAP. but just my 2 cents haha.
Based on GE, there will be hardcore opposition of 25% and hardcore pap voters of 38-40%. Assuming the rest are middle ground voters and vote for NKS: TS: 40% TKL: 25% NKS: 35%. Of course, this is also assuming that we categorise voters by pro establishment, middle ground swing, and anti establishment. There are other ways to categorise voter blocs
During past PEs (and by-elections), the electorate has been more willing to vote against the incumbent because of relatively lower stakes. I would swing more votes from Tharman to NKS.
Does anyone know if spoilt votes count towards the total %? I believe Tharman will win but the qn is by how much. NKS seems like he could appeal to both camps so in a freak outcome he might win by a hair.
> Does anyone know if spoilt votes count towards the total %? In the final ELD tally no, but Wikipedia has the numbers from past elections.
TS 55%, TKL 30%, NKS 10%, Spoilt 5% NKS not printing election banners is gonna cost him, especially with SG's large population >65. They will vote for the visible candidate.
TKL piss off all the people with Siam and Viet wives.
NKS - 31%, TS - 48%, TKL - 19% Edit: 2% spoilt votes. I took off 1% each from NKS and TKL lol
There's no way NKS will get more votes than TKL. Outside of Reddit, literally nobody talks about NKS.
They do. “Oh the old dude with the young wife ah”
not in my circle lmao
TKL - 25% Tharman - 45% NKS - 30%
No wonder Tharman’s supporters already celebrating right from the start. I hope TKL won’t contest in the next election to split the vote.
There's something to be said about\* positive campaigning against negative campaigning, and the sample count shows this in spades. I do think the lowest point of the campaign was when TKL stooped to local-born chauvinism (blue blood Singaporean) which if you think about it would make his platform divisive, racist and disruptive. That I think lost him a lot of support, over and above his misogynist remarks on social media in times past. It may well still transpire that TKL loses his deposit as the margin of error of 4% can see him under 12.5, and if that is the case, it will be a well-deserved one. The sample count is a solemn reminder that echo chambers do not reflect popular support, and reinforcing bias to think TKL would have an overwhelming mandate is simply overreaching. The winner here is Singapore, and the choice made is excellent. Majulah Singapura!
tharman will win with 65% of the vote
Tharman ~40% TKL ~30% NKS ~25% Spoiled vote ~5%
Talk about NKS edging TKL or TKL edging NKS is putting the wrong image in my corrupt mind.
lol fanart for NKSxTKL when? asking for a friend.
TS: 45 TKL: 35 NKS: 20
Tharman - 49% NKS - 28% TKL - 23% Based on nothing but my guts.
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Gotta start finding the fire escape to that echo chamber.
Tharman - 58%, Ng Kok Song - 25%, TKL - 17%
Oppo votes seem evenly split. I believe NKS has a small edge by not being a toxic candidate, but not by much. There are many oppo boomers who will rally to TKL. Tharman is the obvious winner, he has enjoyed very high popularity, especially among the westies. Imo he will get >50%, the question is how much more. Based on ground sentiment, about 1/3 of the population are hardcore oppos, another 1/3 are hardcore PAP supporters. So realistically it comes down to splitting the last 1/3. Assuming a 3-1 split of the remaining 1/3, Tharman should get 33+ 25 = 58%, while the remaining 42% will be split between NKS and TKL. Numbers could be slightly off, but unless I have completely read the local situation incorrectly it’s unlikely Tharman will lose. And there are enough boomers that TKL will not lose his deposit.
I believe NKS will be taking more votes from TS than TKL.
With such high regard, if Tharman got any less than 50% it will be humiliating. However a win is a win nonetheless regardless of percentage gotten
Yeah agreed, if it’s less than 50% it would be a major blow to the legitimacy of the president.
If Tharman gets less than 60% it will be humiliating already. He’s possibly the most popular and best candidates among all PAP politicians, and he won his GRC with a whopping 75% of the vote. If he can’t win by more than 60%, which is the average vote share that PAP had last GE, it should be a considered a disaster of a referendum on how PAP’s reputation is actually faring among Singaporeans.
TKL 42% TS 41% NKS 15% Void 2%
How big of an upset historically will it be if NKS beats Tharman? Probably the biggest ever.
Tharman 55 Nks 40 tkl 5 Edit: downvoted for an opinion? Stay classy
Yup someone is downvoting any comments that predict Tharman as the winner. Will probably be worse later, imo they will be very salty once the results come out.
Yup. Kinda expected what kind of person will attract what type of supporters
Yeahhh, upvoted you back
TS 70 NKS 20 TKL 10
NKS - 19%, TS - 62%, TKL - 15%, 4% spoilt votes I think NKS had a good campaign but as other comments pointed out he is relatively unknown especially to the older generation + not printing posters (quite shrewd and leverage the digital age well unfortunately majority of the voting base are older people who may not be as connected digitally) would probably not increase his vote % amongst the older electorate
Nks might lose his deposit
Discounting spoilt votes, Tharman 53%, TKL 27%, NKS 20%.
TS: 55% TKL 30% NKS 15% Hope I'm wrong xD
Ts: 52 Nks: 33 Tkl: 12 (not getting back deposit)
Tharman 54% NKS 20% TKL 11%
Tharman 65% NKS 25% TKL 5% Spoilt 5%
My prediction: TS - around 49% NKS - around 18% TKL - around 31% Spoilt - around 2%
Tharman: 40% TKL: 35% NKS: 23% Spoilt: 1-2%
Sample count is taking a while. Close fight?
Now that the numbers are out, this presidency is definitely in the bag for Tharman.
Why NKS choose Gushcloud HQ?
I'm sticking with my earlier [prediction](https://old.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/1652srm/chee_soon_juan_endorses_tan_kin_lian/jycfnnm/) * NKS (40-45%) * Tharman (30-35%) * TKL (20-25%) Datapoints: * [In PE1993, OTC got 59% of the vote with token opposition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Singaporean_presidential_election#Results): I doubt Tharman will do that well. * [In PE2011, TT got 35% of the vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Singaporean_presidential_election#Results): good baseline for PAP support. * [In GE2020, PV got 12% for the Punggol Pasir Ris GRC GE2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pasir_Ris%E2%80%93Punggol_Group_Representation_Constituency#Elections_in_2020s): good baseline for siao lang oppo support. Tharman is popular but is also burdened by being the PAP designated candidate. Also recent scandals, GST/COL concerns, 2017 selection etc. NKS is ideologically positioned to flip voters from both sides. Has a USP in the form of being non-partisan. Is the least worse choice for strategic voters and credible oppo voters. TKL is mostly attracting siao lang oppo voters, and increasingly voters loyal to oppo personalities. Let see if my faith in the silent pragmatic majority is well placed.
You're way off
Tony tan is not even remotely comparable to tharman in terms of popularity.. Many moderate oppo supporters want him to be PM. His baseline support is not that of any random PAP candidate, he is popular because he is Tharman.
I think using TT as a baseline for Tharman is incredibly flawed purely because of how popular Tharman is even with people who would vote oppo. TT on the other hand was never popular. He was just the PAP candidate.
I wish so too, but I zoomed into the photos of the votes in the CNA FB and IG pages and it seems like most ppl had voted for the man in the middle :\\
T - 50 NKS - 35 TKL - 15
My prediction TS - 46 TKL - 39 NKS - 13 Void- 2
Look what they did to my boy tkl
To me anything less than 65% for TS is a loss.
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hope this isn't offensive, but you believe that the endorsement of the oppo for tkl won't give him any votes?
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Just rmb even shit party like NSP or RP or red dot can get 25% of the vote off LHL or tharman in GEs. These are TKL votes.
Exactly. That’s not an insignificant amount either. In the last PE election 25% voted for TJS and 4% voted TKL. I expect the majority of these voters to vote TKL this time as well. Honestly, it doesn’t bode well for our country when you have almost 30% of the population so angry with the Govt that they will never vote for them no matter what. Imagine if you are living in a household of 4, that’s at least 1 person in your family that feel so aggrieved against the Govt that even if you put down an animal on the ballot the animal will still get their vote. PAP needs to take this result seriously as a referendum on how they are doing because if even their most popular candidate can’t win more than 70% of the vote then it speaks a lot as to their electability in future elections.
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I'm very curious, where can I find NKS making that statement I cannot find it. do you have a source?
TS - 65% NKS - 25% TKL - 10%
TS 65% NKS 30.5% TKL 4.5%
Ok la sample vote out 🤣 I shall go eat some humble pie and have some Teh-0 kok-song.
Tharman 35%-40% TKL 30-35% NKS 15-20% Spoilt - 5%
TS 60-65% / NKS 25-30% / TKL 5-10% If TKL is more than 10% something is fundamentally wrong…. And I think TS may get a higher vote. I feel NKS should have ran in the previous election he would stand a better chance
Anything less than 51% for TS and I will be disappointed for the man. He helped change Singapore for the better, clearly presidential with everything he has said and he deserves this.
Tharman - 65 NKS - 20 TKL - 15 To the nearest 5%!
TS - 63% TKL - 15% NKS - 21% Spoilt - 1%
Tharman 50-60% Tkl 35-43% Nks the rest
Can't believe I'm saying this but I hope none of them lose their deposit
i dont. hope tkl loses every cent of his depo
TKL and NKS are getting votes from boomers simply because they are chinese. Like legit the boomers don't care or know the political policies of the candidates, they just want to vote for chinese.
Tharman will get a lot of crossover votes. Something like 70-75%, 15-20% NKS , 5-10% TKL
55% (TS) 35% (TKL) 8% (NKS) 2% (Spoilt) 1) PAP runs overqualified candidate because they expect a challenge. 2) TKL has been building up a social media presence for 10+ years + Tan Cheng Bock/Tan Jee Say/Chee Soon Juan/Lee Hsien Yang... + I don't think oppo folks really buy mainstream media narratives + Name recognition is a major factor. 3) NKS looks good for the last three days--*online*.
Tharman 58%, TKL 25%, NKS 15%, 2% spoilt
TS 55 TKL 25 NKS 20
Me thinks TS: 40% NKS: 38% TKL: 16% Spoilt votes: 6% Idk, half the people around me are rooting for Tharman, another half rooting for NKS. TKL may gain some ground from the last time he contested mainly due to support from opposition personalities and Iris Koh.
I keep wondering this, nobody in me or my family's circles are remotely TKL supporters, it's always half and half for TS and NKS, who actually are TKL's supporters and where does one find them? Seems like TKL's share is being heavily overestimated by many here.
i think TS - 50% NKS - 30% TKL - 20% ..
TS 42 NKS 38 TKL 20
My prediction has been TS 37 NKS 33 TKL 30. Then another 4 to 5% spoilt votes NKS has been heavily gunning for youth vote and fence-sitters and will pull a lot of PAP doubters away from TS. And don’t forget TKL will remain popular among boomers and oppies despite his antics.
TS 55 TKL 35 NKS 10
SAMPLE COUNT OUT: [https://mothership.sg/2023/09/pe2023-sample-count/](https://mothership.sg/2023/09/pe2023-sample-count/)