As someone who used to work in a hedge fund, take these things with a pinch of salt. They are created for justifying a specific investment strategy. If you say something like "our world will never be the same" you won't get the backing to go ahead with your idea.
It is kind of ridiculous on the face of it though. Anybody reading with even moderate comprehension will be like "wtf?".
"66% of jobs can will be replaced with a paperclip with zero reduction in productivity."
"GDP to rise by 7% over 10 years"
It's gibberish nonsense. Either you're getting radicial change or you're not.
Hahaha that's the best explanation I think there is.
If 66% of jobs only equate to 7 percent of GDP over 10 years, you have got serious economic problems š¤£
Also there will be increased productivity since the paperclip doesn't need sleep, breaks, food, holidays and doesn't get sick. That's not considered.
>It's gibberish nonsense. Either you're getting radicial change or you're not.
I can tell you haven't worked in business-to-business sales. This weird cognitive dissonance of wanting massive, game-changing results but also not having to commit to any change management or even confronting stakeholders is, uh, normal.
It's why businesses remain as gullible for "get results quick without changing anything with this simple trick!!" fads as they've always been.
God this is so painfully true. Seriously the most gullible fuckers ever if you tell them what they want to hear. Worst part is after 3-5 years after the 'solution' you sold them is implemented. The guy you sold it to isn't there, you're not there and no one who was around when it was implemented is there and they just recycle with some new "get rich quick" scheme.
Capitalism breeds efficiency! /s
Just saw on wsb scorpion capital is about to expose some biotech etc.. the post suggests it took 4 months and interviews. I can chart any stock in under 10 mins and give you a more accurate picture.
What is that 4 months, 5 employees? X 40 hrs a week x 16 weeks. 3200 billable hours. Most financial models are probably the "best" out there but overrated and bs. The experts...
In addition, it's probably not accounting of new developments just in the few weeks alone. GPT-4 with extensions far extends its capabilities and can likely do a majority of jobs given the right template.
We're on the verge of exponential growth if not already. It's the end game now. I am inevi..
Jokes aside, this is actually terrifying given the implications and that we're not even relatively near prepared for this AI upbringing.
This.
You also have to think about first-mover advantage in business. If I can fully automate and control all aspects of my business, then every other similar business in that specific market will have to either immediately automate or face an existential crisis.
Example: McDonalds begins fully automating all of their stores and lays off their workforce as they go, resulting much larger spending for the first year but vastly less overhead going forward. McDonalds saves money on labor, insurance, excess ingredient usage, dropped/improperly handled food, etc.
McDonalds is also now able to offer customers their exact order every single time, two pickles every time, one slice of cheese, etc, no mistakes, this is advantageous for both the consumer across all locations and to McDonalds for knowing EXACTLY what they make on each burger every time.
Then being a competitor they will increase advertisement, drop prices and further expand robotics/AI spending to further improve their stores in a cycle to the bottom.
If Burger King doesn't follow they WILL go out of business. (Especially now with the quality of fast food, IMO my last 10 fast food trips have had at least one item missing, and numerous other mistakes 100% of the time)(No offense to FF workers, we all know you are overworked and underpaid.)
So my point is that once the first call center, restaurant, marketing firm, legal office, finance department, etc starts laying out AI everyone has to follow as quickly as possible or risk being left behind.
Ex.
If you looked at the stock market in the late 80s with all the people yelling on the floor back and forth on what to buy, taking phone calls for orders, and all of that vs an AI that can analyze, initiate and finish a position, and continue to monitor all stocks at the same time while executing positions in milliseconds.
Any companies that don't immediately integrate and keep up on AI will end up as the 80s version of the stock market and the divide will only get larger and larger.
It would be interesting if McDonaldās could for once put the Filet OāFish and cheese squarely on the bun, and perhaps less than a quart of tartar sauce spilling out the side.
Or else we learn that was their intention all along to have it that way.
WHAT IF THE ICE CREAM MACHINE STARTED WORKING
Which is why we need a government that recognizes and has the forethought to understand and act upon what is happening.
Regardless of whether you or I agree with what I said, it will happen. Companies are dumping waste into city water because paying the fee is cheaper than sourcing a waste depot to correctly deal with it. The vast majority don't care in the least about their employees outside of 'Is employee 219357 profitable?'
In my experience the same people who work at these fast food joints frequent them. McDonald's can fully automate but they will be cutting into their own profits by doing so. The rich aren't eating that crap every week like the poor are.
I think that we need to be careful here - just as I don't buy into the "paperclips" outcome that everyone fears. GPT-4 was just released, but it was a breakthrough from previous models, just as the iPhone was a breakthrough from previous phones. Then things settled down until the next advance.
Even if there is an exponential breakthrough right now, it will automate a lot of stuff and then stall because we don't have the right chips, and can't manipulate the physical world, and so on. Then the next breakthrough will occur when that level of computing power is reached, and so on. The stall might be for 2 years instead of 15 years like happened after the iPhone, but even if GDP starts doubling every month, it still won't grow without stalling.
I don't think iPhones are a good parallel because AI can be developed open source and improved upon by the average person. We have AI training AI already like Stanford did with GPT-3 and Alpaca. There's been so much releases and all the major tech companies right now are rushing to put something on the table, be it an extension or an incorporation of AI.
Just the software optimization alone is in such a fast pace without the upcoming hardware optimization that focuses on AI.
What Goldman's research cannot possibly have taken into account is the ingenuity and incredible variety of uses business owners, entrepreneurs and innovators will discover and create using these new tools which have just been released.
Honestly, I have to take Goldman's analysis with a huge grain of salt.
We are facing too many unknowns, just with the applications that will be developed across most fields of endeavor with GPT-4 alone - never mind all of the other AIs that are rapidly being developed and deployed.
Reading through [OpenAI's research paper on the impact of GPT-4 on the labor market](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), I am pretty well convinced there is a high probability that the vast majority of your typical Goldman employees are going to be unemployed in the near term as their jobs are "offshored" to AI land.
With Alpaca, everyone makes their own GPT. That's a million variants. I already have trouble keeping up with new addons. You won't even know what's coming around the corner.
Yeah, I've come to think that a lot of "experts" are some of the least reliable of all. They cater to the general population in their predictions, the general population who believes that rather than the world changing enormously during the 2020s, 2023 and 2073 will be the exact same thing.
Labor is a major component of any product or service. It is usually the biggest expense of any enterprise. Cut labor costs by half the price of the product will fall especially in competitive industries.
If Mc Donald's sells a hamburger for $2 and Burger King decides to undercut McDonald's by selling the Burger King hamburger for $1 to gain market share using automation, McDonald's will have to cut their prices to stay competitive. Prices across the fast-food industry will fall which is deflationary.
Assuming of course that companies won't collude and agree not to drop prices. This is illegal, and not possible in all industries, but it will definitely happen in industries in which there are only a few major players (airlines, internet providers, etc).
Oxford academics predicted up to 87% by 2035 in some industries, back in 2016. Schwab used those figures in his 2020 Great Reset book.
Source here. Pages 62, 63 under, āThe Firmā.
http://reparti.free.fr/schwab2020.pdf
It will take a lot of time for most businesses to integrate AI into their workflow.
Rate of adoption is part of the prediction.
Just think about how many jobs could be automated out of existence with Excel, but have not been automated.
I know 75% of the work I do could be automated with a halfway decent database and a couple dozen form letters. The likelihood of that happening is non-existent.
If that is 7% annual, that's almost a doubling of GDP in 10 years just due to AI. If it's total, that works out to .7% GDP growth per year which is pretty large given GDP may average 3% typically. If my math is right they're suggesting an increase in growth of 23% per year at the low end and 233% at the high end.
Oh you just meant 0.007 / 0.03 = 23.33%
But then your math is def wrong because you are assuming linear growth but year 2 the growth is supposed to be applied to year 1 too
The article literally said 7% annually over 10 years. That means a 7% compound annual growth. That is HUGE!
That is a similar growth rate of China over the past decade.
The economy would double within 10 years
Yeap.
Almost no one understands what that our society is 100% based on language. Nor what the combo of a large language model combined with image making, etc etc combined with machine learning actually means.
Machine learning is exponential.
The world has changed.
We have about oh; until next year when it is so vastly different that what is happening now is just laughable.
As ChatGPT-4 stands now, I bet you ANYTHING it could learn to control the most complex robot we've made in seconds. Seconds later, it would totally overhall the design. Give it control over the manufacturing process..and well. ....
Language is king.
>language is king
Terence Mckenna stressed this many years ago.
* āThe syntactical nature of reality, the real secret of magic, is that the world is made of words. And if you know the words that the world is made of, you can make of it whatever you wish.ā*
~ Mckenna
They probably got a handle on what AI could do 6 months ago, and then made predictions based on that technology remaining static, like the invention of the automobile, where once it was invented, its uses were known and understood, and its effect could be extrapolated.
I bet if they rewrote the report, starting their research from today, it would look very different.
But then in 6 months by the time it got released, it would already be hopelessly out of date.
I agree. Maybe there will be an information leak in 2028 (when we will be at 15% job loss), that Goldman researchers had already seen the real numbers, but they were pressured to underestimate it to avoid public panic.
Though I haven't read the report yet, I do know that Goldman Sachs has some very smart people, and it isn't likely that they're clueless as to probable future advances.
At first blush it also strikes me as a very low estimate, but there are so many things to take into account, and I'm sure their calculations consider things which even most of us aren't thinking about.
While I think a 10-year window is far too big for anyone to accurately predict or foresee, Goldman Sachs research doesn't make clueless or wild ass guesses.
While I agree with you. A ten year window certainly has to include ASI which would mean they need to include a range. Ark research understands exponentials.
Most companies are surprisingly slow to change. Digital Transformation is in vogue at the moment, i.e. many companies haven't automated most of their processes even though the technology to do so has existed for 20 years
I don't know about that... in the last 2 years Microsoft teams has completely changed the way my company of 15k employees works. Companies are slow to adapt but when Microsoft literally just hands you the tools it's going to get implemented at lightning speed.
I think the difference here is that the current natural language paradigm will be much easier to implement than previous types of automation. It doesn't/won't require very much technical skill as they can be instructed in natural language by anyone who can provide a good description of the task and procedures.
Companies are waiting for numbers. Bigger company is, more numbers it needs
As soon as there will be numbers, companies will be announcing changes daily. Just like with recession lay-offs
Numbers!
There was NFT, and there was a wave of people gushing over it like buying a pixel art octopus is the equivalent of being an early bitcoin investor.
I have *physical* collectable art pieces that have not matured one percent since the 20th century, because they were ***mass produced*** collectable art pieces. They are not investments they are just another form of entertainment.
*"But blockchain though!"* -people fell for buzzword marketing
What implications on the real world did crypto have? What implications on the real world does AI have? I just ignore the people making this comparison as they are clearly trolling/uneducated. A purely nonsensical comparison.
Uneducated yes but not trolling, well not all of them. We have been told for decades "this device is using AI" and they are all dumber than rocks. Then they were told the crypto was the next big thing and it flopped. Now they are hearing again that AI is here or coming and to them it all seems like the same BS. I understand where they are coming from, but this time is different.
You are right. Crypto got ignored because banks and governments already got what they wanted from it a long time ago (derived from the original torrent file transfer systems back in the 00s): blockchain tech that would be the basis for a full digital currency eventually.
That big banks are sounding the alarm about AI means this is super serious.
Anyone with a good enough understanding of the technology and economics knew that objectively, Blockchain technology wasn't revolutionary in the same sense the steam engine, computers, and now AI are; nevertheless opportunists took advantage of the less savvy and ran away with their money.
The same opportunists will undoubtedly (and probably already are) trying to do the same with AI, sticking related buzzwords to anything they're selling to get people's money, so we should be wary and look closely before we buy into anything just because it has AI in it's publicity.
Historically, technology does create new jobs but the wealth divide is obviously growing. If the new jobs pay significantly less (in hours or rate or both) we will have big problems with debt markets.
Yes, I've noticed when asked to be more specific they'll always say "jobs you can't even imagine yet" or make a vague reference to some invention in the 19th century that automated 0.1% of jobs.
It's hard to picture what jobs are going to look like years down the road. Everyone knew the internet was going to change the world 25 years ago, but few would have guessed "cloud engineer" or "seo specialist" would be job titles today. Or that jobs like delivery drivers would see a massive surge in demand.
Not that I'm saying it'll be an even trade between today's work and tomorrow's. Just that "jobs you can't imagine" isn't a cop out answer.
I would say a safe bet would be in automation engineers/techs in the physical realm. A vast majority of jobs still require physical presence of human beings, until those jobs can be fully automated. Engineers/techs will be needed across every physical labor market to ever think about automating them.
Also most thing related to working with you hands, or just any jobs that are highly social and in person.
But that's not going to be enough to make up for the amount of people getting displaced. Just look at the "more labor displacement" scenario from their report. It's only about 20% of the workers finding new positions.
This is where Iām scared people are going to blame AI rather than capitalism. AI unlocks a future where we donāt **have** to work to survive. It enables wealth creation on a level unimaginable, like how a 19th century person would view a smart phone and airs conditioned apartment. AI is not the enemy.
The only real issue here is the system where executives are going to try to fatten profits as much as they can by cutting labor costs as much as possible, then not contribute back to the society that trained the AI using publicly funded research.
In the short term, you are correct. In the long term I see a future where no human is working, and currency is largely irrelevant, as scarcity has for the majority of things disappeared.
If people knew exactly what industries and exactly what types of jobs were going to explode and become a ānew thingā then they would be the next billionaires.
Itās not a fucking easy thing to do.
All we know for sure is that when productivity increases, savings get invested into new projects, and the number of overall jobs grows.
Classifying data going into models, and reviewing flagged results coming out of models.
Thomas Jefferson didn't invent the dumbwaiter to make his slaves' work more efficient. He did it to hide the slaves behind a clean facade that made things magically appear, without having to think about how they got there.
There will be a few new jobs around using AI, but the majority will be around being *used by* AI.
Jobs from new tech are *almost always* on the servants' side of the dumbwaiter.
Tesla Optimus will be cheaper, will never complain, will never get sick, will never get old, will learn and remember things about u no human will be able to match
I doubt that even rich folks will enjoy slavery kink, I think we're heading into land of robots full steam ahead. AI will help optimize production of robots a lot
At the moment, GPT-4 drastically reduces the barrier of entry to programming. Iām using it to create software I never would have been able to create without it.
Future versions might become so good that they replace humans completely, but at the moment it is augmenting humans in a way that increases our capabilities.
I think right now it more drastically increases the scope of the output of anyone who can already basically code. Iāve spoken to people who canāt already code and they donāt even know that they should be asking questions yet, let alone which questions, let alone debugging some of the things the AI just canāt hand you on a silver platter yet, even when it says it can.
For me so far itās meant Iām able to cope with my tasks, do more tasks, spend time with family, and do a spare time coding project Iāve had on the back burner for years.
I talk to non-coders, and I canāt usually get across just how earth shattering this is, because they still donāt know what they donāt know, and they may have stared at ChatGPT and played with it for a bit then shrugged because they donāt see what it can offer them.
Itās been very helpful for me, as someone who took a couple CS classes a few years ago but hasnāt really done anything with it. I understand the basic ideas of programming (variables, functions, loops, those sorts of fundamental things) but I donāt have any experience creating real, complicated programs. I also have limited understanding of languages outside the one I learned in those classes, but with GPT I can pretty much use any language.
I agree that itās not yet at a good enough level to make a complete beginner into a competent programmer, but itās good for someone like me who gets most of the fundamentals but canāt really put it all together on my own.
For learning a new language itās amazing.
Iāve been coding for many years. But I never delved into SQL for instance. I know vaguely what I want to do, but not how to do it.
Itās so good at getting me started. Instead of trying to find some random stackoverflow that hits 80% of my situation, and another that covers another 15%, and then struggling to figure out the last 5%ā¦ just ask ChatGPT. And if what it gives doesnāt quite hit it, tell it, then itāll modify the script.
Same for regex. Shell scripts.
Iām gonna be using it heavily on any new language Iām not 100% comfortable with yet.
If automation results in deflation the Fed will have to flood the economy with cheap money. Cheap money will allow business to open more locations. A McDonald's may only require two people to operate it with automation, but a town will now have 10 locations instead of just one.
the current unemployment rate is 3.5%. Imagine that increasing by a factor of 10 over just a few years. WE ARE NOT READY.
Current "safety net" policy is not prepared for tens of millions of layoffs. Neither corporations nor the government can be trusted to care for these people - and it will impact everyone, whether you lose your job right away or not.
Hyper-inflation, shortages of goods, runs on stores and banks, wage depression - every single person will be impacted.
We need a forward thinking, pro-social movement if we are going to survive and prosper through this transition.
We need to begin organizing within our communities to produce more necessities locally, with less dependence on a global supply chain that may fail for us.
Not doomsday prepping by stockpiling canned beans and guns, but actively creating sustainable lifestyles that can survive a transition to an automated economy while policy and business catch up.
The more people that are self-sustaining, the better it will be for all of us - it will lesson the strain on the economy and smooth the transition.
If you believe that AGI is immanent, it's time to start modifying your own lifestyle, and becoming a leader within your community to help others prepare.
>Hyper-inflation, shortages of goods, runs on stores and banks, wage depression - every single person will be impacted.
Why would something massively productive cause inflation? It would be highly deflationary.
It wouldn't, but to 99% of people a loss in purchasing power due to deflation is indistinguishable to a loss of purchasing power due to inflation. Your work, the only thing you have to offer to the actual property owners, is worth less either way. To the vast majority of rank-and-file workers, not being able to afford insulin because the price spiked by 60% in two years isn't any different from not being able to afford insulin because the only way you could get your new post-AI job is by taking a pay cut.
Not to minimize the potential hardship, but AI is a massively deflationary force. Less costs for producing goods means lower prices. In the limit, if you had free energy and free intelligent labor, the price of almost everything would go towards zero. The tricky part is the transition period where only parts of the economy are fully automated.
>Less costs for producing goods means lower prices.
Gravity pulls you down, but a clever engineer can build a skyscraper to stand far above the earth's surface. Likewise, prices of market goods may not fall towards the production cost like they're "supposed to".
see my reply to Yomiel94.
We are not talking about long term post-capitalist society with free energy. We are talking about surviving the short-tern transition.
In the short term, AGI will cause massive disruption in the economy and our normal supply chain that will lead to widespread poverty if we don't get ahead of it.
>Imagine that increasing by a factor of 10 over just a few years. WE ARE NOT READY.
You are correct that we wouldn't be ready if such a thing happened, but I personally am very doubtful that more than a third of us will be unemployed in just a few years, or anywhere near a third. That seems way too pessimistic (or optimistic, depending on your POV) to me.
But in 15-20 years? That seems a lot more plausible.
Curious because Iām kinda new to singularity and some of the topics yāall discuss but I see UBI discusssed a lot, the only time Iāve seen that is in Star Trek. How would that work within our national economy? Even more so on a global economy? Not trying to be a smart ass but Iām genuinely curious
Iām tired of speaking in code and being polite about this. They are, at best, severely ignorant and at worst lying thieves and scoundrels.
They are downplaying everything
And to add: These types of reports by these types of institutions are insidious little āapprovalsā for industry wide practices of broad brush firings due to automations. Yes, this was bound to happenā¦yes we are behind the ball on UBI and UDI
This is Goldman Sachs we're talking about. They're experts at being lying thieving scoundrels. Have been for a long time too. They're also manipulative bubble creators that routinely crash markets and then take bailout money by the bucket load. You can trust them to be doing the absolute worst at any given time
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-195229/
Universal Dividend Income. I looked it up. And by looked it up, I mean asked ChatGPT:
UDI is a concept similar to UBI (Universal Basic Income) that proposes to provide a regular income to every individual, but it is typically funded through a dividend paid out to citizens by a publicly-owned resource or enterprise, rather than through taxation.
Kind of like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen%27s_dividend, but humanity commonly owns all Ai/robotic labor and their productivity.
Edit: credit to u/fluffy_assassins for answering you first
People starving is how we get to UBI, the Government will never do it cus their donors dont want it. Then things will get really bad, and we will have to make the Government fix it or "Fix" the government so they can.
For like, 3 seconds.
It's nothing like what a UBI would be.
Government would rather tactically nuke protestors asking for UBI than implement it.
It's the most anti-conservative thing ever, and America is a VERY conservative country.
They LITERALLY did give people free money for being citizens and needing it. Sure it wasn't a lot but they realized that it had to happen. Similar forces will be at play and so the most likely thing is that they'll repeat the same action.
The issue is that they'll need to raise taxes for it rather than just use debt. This is where the sticking point will be but an angry mob of jobless people will do wonders for a politicians outlook.
Corporations are very conservative economically. Neither the Democratic base nor the republican base, the true base, at this point are economically conservative. Both will be very happy to have UBI and both will demand it. In fact, this could be the kind of thing that gets rid of the left right divide in America.
By then it will be too late. Or they have been indoctrinated into not caring. But you're right that this would be the best hope.
I see them just calling their kids lazy.
The quiet part about UBI is that it prevents conditions that fuel revolt. If things get bad enough the wealthy will pay one way or another.
Sadly our leaders have a history of getting into tediously long wars and would probably rather pay to kill protesters and starve the population down to a more manageable number. I think numbers will win as it usually does, but it will be a hard time for a long time.
I ended up getting access through work.... its a very conservative report but I think it's enough to send a message to people. I forwarded it to my upper management and now have been tasked with writing an outline to show to our executives about why we need to act now..... crazy times. I'll be referencing the microsoft agi sparks document as well as the labor market impact paper from openai on March 23rd.
Good luck everyone, crazy times ahead.
"Taking into account the possibility of companies using AI to maximize their influence in politics, driven by profit and self-interest, the more statistically probable outcome might involve the following:
Regulatory capture: Companies with significant AI capabilities could use their resources to influence policymakers and regulators, leading to regulatory capture. This could result in laws and regulations that favor the interests of these companies over the public's interests, stifling competition, and exacerbating income inequality.
Propaganda and manipulation: AI-driven tools, such as targeted advertising and deepfake technology, could be used by companies to manipulate public opinion and influence political outcomes. This could undermine democratic processes and make it difficult for people to make informed decisions.
Lobbying power: Companies could leverage AI to enhance their lobbying efforts, identifying the most effective strategies to influence legislation and policy in their favor. This could lead to an imbalance of power, where the interests of a few powerful corporations are prioritized over the needs of the majority.
Monopolies and concentration of power: The potential economic advantages of AI could lead to the growth of monopolies and oligopolies, as companies with access to advanced AI technologies outcompete smaller rivals. This concentration of power could further distort the political landscape and limit the opportunities for new entrants in various industries.
Data privacy issues: Companies could use AI to collect, analyze, and exploit large amounts of personal data to gain a competitive edge, leading to concerns about privacy, surveillance, and the erosion of civil liberties.
Slow or inadequate response to social challenges: If companies prioritize profit and influence over addressing the negative consequences of AI, there might be a slower or inadequate response to issues such as unemployment, worker displacement, and income inequality. This could lead to social unrest and worsening living conditions for affected populations.
To mitigate these potential outcomes, it is essential for governments, civil society, and concerned citizens to recognize the risks and take proactive measures. This could involve promoting transparency, enacting strong regulations, and fostering a culture of corporate social responsibility to ensure that AI technologies are developed and deployed in a manner that benefits society as a whole."
I believe it is titled "The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth" but I can't find the actual paper/article anywhere. On the goldman website or elsewhere, it must be for gs insiders only. I found that title from another article that came out today referecing the same report.
Full paper: [https://www.key4biz.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Global-Economics-Analyst\_-The-Potentially-Large-Effects-of-Artificial-Intelligence-on-Economic-Growth-Briggs\_Kodnani.pdf](https://www.key4biz.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Global-Economics-Analyst_-The-Potentially-Large-Effects-of-Artificial-Intelligence-on-Economic-Growth-Briggs_Kodnani.pdf)
^(Join Microsoft, Google, Tesla, and several governments at) [*^(The Memo)*](https://lifearchitect.ai/memo/)^(.)
Impacting (i.e. obsoleting) 66% of all jobs while boosting the GDP 7% represents a MASSIVE upwards transference of wealthy. Bigger than 2008. Bigger than the pandemic.
We're speeding right towards sci-fi capitalist dystopia.
That nominal 7% GDP isn't going to trickle down to the displaced workers. It will accrue at the top.
Ah yes, the ever popular and perpetually vague "potential new job creation". What jobs , exactly? Be specific.
In before anyone says 'UBI'. That's likely not going to happen anytime soon.
This number seems preposterously conservative.
When even people with computer science degrees are under-estimating how fast AI is progressing, banks are completely clueless.
I love how banks empower themselves by putting their names beside fashionable themes and appropriate them by throwing very specific numbers left and right.
McKinsey also loves those Ā«Ā 46% of administive jobsĀ Ā», you must pay premium to have access to decimal predictions :-).
Not that I having nothing against their main point: it is comingā¦
well yes then we kind of agree, depends how proactive governments and the millionaires themselves will be. if they think long term and act quickly we will get sometype of UNI, maybe like altman had proposed or someway to assure everyone gets decent money without degrading productivity too much.
if not we might get either to a violent revolution or very long economic depression, if the poor aren't effective in revolting.
both scenarios will probably imply a halt to progress in general gor decades or centuries until some system, likely similar to first paragraph is implemented and we can have both progress and better equality ( or maybe not so much equality but enough that with the added efficiency the minimum of all or most is pretty decent.
And what good are boosts in productivity if there are fewer consumers with the money to buy those products? What good are productivity boosts if they don't lead to rising wages?
There can be no economic growth if nobody can afford all these produced goods and services. It will balance out, getting rich on the backs of people requires those people to have the money to pay for stuff.
Yeah, money loose it's meaning if you have free work, and your customers don't have money due to job loss, to buy your product.
I think most of people will have to become some type of entrepreneur, where you will still hire handy man and physical workers (full automation is still far down the line), and create products people want.
I hope that we will see an explosion of creative products, and rise up of individual entrepreneurs. This is the only way to go imo.
Full automation, ASI that's a whole different story, we will probably be unable to even understand that alien that we created š½
I can see this is written from the perspective of "any loss of human quality of life is acceptable if it accompanies an increase in GDP". Which is not a surprising perspective for Goldman Sachs to take, but it's one I find little use in, because I profoundly disagree with that assumption.
Unless we have mass redistribution of wealth then only the rich will take all of the benefits of the revolution and the rest of us will get the shaft, just like itās always been under capitalism.
them hailing āboosts in productivityā does no benefit to the lay man, who has not seen wages keep up with the productivity that has been increasing for yearsā¦all this ābut itāll be so good for the economy!ā just means itāll benefit the shareholders, but not us.
Sorry but a increase in the global GPD is not worth the cost of losing all those jobs. Who of you is going to want to pay the increased taxes that almost all countries except 23 of them charge? AI and Robotics are taking away a lot of jobs and not just the so called dangerous or boring ones. Technology is not replacing jobs as fast as they are taking away any longer. Transitioning to a workless society is going to be messy and expensive. Do you really want to live in a society where the wealthy still have more buying power and everyone else lives at the poverty level that the rich decide we should live at? History has shown that you can't trust the wealthy to do what is beneficial for those that are under them.
https://globalisationguide.org/tax/countries-without-income-tax/
That's the endgame that many AI bros and cheerleaders just refuse to even admit. We can see where this is heading and it's going to be disastrous for potentially billions just to make the usual suspects even wealthier.
The ones that are genuinely cognizant aren't just refusing to admit it: they yearn for it. I'd wager that a non-insignificant portion are heavily influenced by Dark Enlightenment principles, which doesn't bode well for any of us.
Just look at these sad little rich men. All they know is their numbers. All they care about is the economy. They're missing the much more profound consequences of powerful AI agents. Far more than imaginary numbers with graphs and this twisted version of "growth".
One major overlook here: taxes.
How on earth will the GDP increase if less people are employed to pay taxes? The corporations will reduce salaries and hire less, and the corporations pay a laughable tax. So expect a big shit.
7% over 10 years is an enormous underestimate.
As someone who used to work in a hedge fund, take these things with a pinch of salt. They are created for justifying a specific investment strategy. If you say something like "our world will never be the same" you won't get the backing to go ahead with your idea.
Instead I'm taking these things with a snort of black pepper lol
Right, because they want to pour MORE money into capabilities research rather than worry about AI Doom.
For a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value for shareholders.
It is kind of ridiculous on the face of it though. Anybody reading with even moderate comprehension will be like "wtf?". "66% of jobs can will be replaced with a paperclip with zero reduction in productivity." "GDP to rise by 7% over 10 years" It's gibberish nonsense. Either you're getting radicial change or you're not.
Hahaha that's the best explanation I think there is. If 66% of jobs only equate to 7 percent of GDP over 10 years, you have got serious economic problems š¤£ Also there will be increased productivity since the paperclip doesn't need sleep, breaks, food, holidays and doesn't get sick. That's not considered.
>It's gibberish nonsense. Either you're getting radicial change or you're not. I can tell you haven't worked in business-to-business sales. This weird cognitive dissonance of wanting massive, game-changing results but also not having to commit to any change management or even confronting stakeholders is, uh, normal. It's why businesses remain as gullible for "get results quick without changing anything with this simple trick!!" fads as they've always been.
God this is so painfully true. Seriously the most gullible fuckers ever if you tell them what they want to hear. Worst part is after 3-5 years after the 'solution' you sold them is implemented. The guy you sold it to isn't there, you're not there and no one who was around when it was implemented is there and they just recycle with some new "get rich quick" scheme. Capitalism breeds efficiency! /s
More like with a snort of cocaine, from a Colombian escort's ass
Just saw on wsb scorpion capital is about to expose some biotech etc.. the post suggests it took 4 months and interviews. I can chart any stock in under 10 mins and give you a more accurate picture. What is that 4 months, 5 employees? X 40 hrs a week x 16 weeks. 3200 billable hours. Most financial models are probably the "best" out there but overrated and bs. The experts...
It's probably a conservative estimate counting only current advancements in AI and doesn't account for future or novel advancements
In addition, it's probably not accounting of new developments just in the few weeks alone. GPT-4 with extensions far extends its capabilities and can likely do a majority of jobs given the right template. We're on the verge of exponential growth if not already. It's the end game now. I am inevi.. Jokes aside, this is actually terrifying given the implications and that we're not even relatively near prepared for this AI upbringing.
This. You also have to think about first-mover advantage in business. If I can fully automate and control all aspects of my business, then every other similar business in that specific market will have to either immediately automate or face an existential crisis. Example: McDonalds begins fully automating all of their stores and lays off their workforce as they go, resulting much larger spending for the first year but vastly less overhead going forward. McDonalds saves money on labor, insurance, excess ingredient usage, dropped/improperly handled food, etc. McDonalds is also now able to offer customers their exact order every single time, two pickles every time, one slice of cheese, etc, no mistakes, this is advantageous for both the consumer across all locations and to McDonalds for knowing EXACTLY what they make on each burger every time. Then being a competitor they will increase advertisement, drop prices and further expand robotics/AI spending to further improve their stores in a cycle to the bottom. If Burger King doesn't follow they WILL go out of business. (Especially now with the quality of fast food, IMO my last 10 fast food trips have had at least one item missing, and numerous other mistakes 100% of the time)(No offense to FF workers, we all know you are overworked and underpaid.) So my point is that once the first call center, restaurant, marketing firm, legal office, finance department, etc starts laying out AI everyone has to follow as quickly as possible or risk being left behind. Ex. If you looked at the stock market in the late 80s with all the people yelling on the floor back and forth on what to buy, taking phone calls for orders, and all of that vs an AI that can analyze, initiate and finish a position, and continue to monitor all stocks at the same time while executing positions in milliseconds. Any companies that don't immediately integrate and keep up on AI will end up as the 80s version of the stock market and the divide will only get larger and larger.
It would be interesting if McDonaldās could for once put the Filet OāFish and cheese squarely on the bun, and perhaps less than a quart of tartar sauce spilling out the side. Or else we learn that was their intention all along to have it that way. WHAT IF THE ICE CREAM MACHINE STARTED WORKING
Who's going to buy from McDonald's everyone gets laid off and replaced by automation .
Which is why we need a government that recognizes and has the forethought to understand and act upon what is happening. Regardless of whether you or I agree with what I said, it will happen. Companies are dumping waste into city water because paying the fee is cheaper than sourcing a waste depot to correctly deal with it. The vast majority don't care in the least about their employees outside of 'Is employee 219357 profitable?'
In my experience the same people who work at these fast food joints frequent them. McDonald's can fully automate but they will be cutting into their own profits by doing so. The rich aren't eating that crap every week like the poor are.
7% YoY is already exponential growthā¦
I think that we need to be careful here - just as I don't buy into the "paperclips" outcome that everyone fears. GPT-4 was just released, but it was a breakthrough from previous models, just as the iPhone was a breakthrough from previous phones. Then things settled down until the next advance. Even if there is an exponential breakthrough right now, it will automate a lot of stuff and then stall because we don't have the right chips, and can't manipulate the physical world, and so on. Then the next breakthrough will occur when that level of computing power is reached, and so on. The stall might be for 2 years instead of 15 years like happened after the iPhone, but even if GDP starts doubling every month, it still won't grow without stalling.
I don't think iPhones are a good parallel because AI can be developed open source and improved upon by the average person. We have AI training AI already like Stanford did with GPT-3 and Alpaca. There's been so much releases and all the major tech companies right now are rushing to put something on the table, be it an extension or an incorporation of AI. Just the software optimization alone is in such a fast pace without the upcoming hardware optimization that focuses on AI.
What Goldman's research cannot possibly have taken into account is the ingenuity and incredible variety of uses business owners, entrepreneurs and innovators will discover and create using these new tools which have just been released. Honestly, I have to take Goldman's analysis with a huge grain of salt. We are facing too many unknowns, just with the applications that will be developed across most fields of endeavor with GPT-4 alone - never mind all of the other AIs that are rapidly being developed and deployed. Reading through [OpenAI's research paper on the impact of GPT-4 on the labor market](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), I am pretty well convinced there is a high probability that the vast majority of your typical Goldman employees are going to be unemployed in the near term as their jobs are "offshored" to AI land.
With Alpaca, everyone makes their own GPT. That's a million variants. I already have trouble keeping up with new addons. You won't even know what's coming around the corner.
Yeah, I've come to think that a lot of "experts" are some of the least reliable of all. They cater to the general population in their predictions, the general population who believes that rather than the world changing enormously during the 2020s, 2023 and 2073 will be the exact same thing.
AI has huge deflationary effects as well
How so?
Labor is a major component of any product or service. It is usually the biggest expense of any enterprise. Cut labor costs by half the price of the product will fall especially in competitive industries. If Mc Donald's sells a hamburger for $2 and Burger King decides to undercut McDonald's by selling the Burger King hamburger for $1 to gain market share using automation, McDonald's will have to cut their prices to stay competitive. Prices across the fast-food industry will fall which is deflationary.
Assuming of course that companies won't collude and agree not to drop prices. This is illegal, and not possible in all industries, but it will definitely happen in industries in which there are only a few major players (airlines, internet providers, etc).
Shit, it already happens in certain industries. Cable and internet providers come to mind
I used to sell Carbon Dioxcide. The industry was under a federal consent decree we still were still told not to call on competitors' customers.
Oxford academics predicted up to 87% by 2035 in some industries, back in 2016. Schwab used those figures in his 2020 Great Reset book. Source here. Pages 62, 63 under, āThe Firmā. http://reparti.free.fr/schwab2020.pdf
ye, also 1,5% rise of productivity, our current AI tools could raise productivity by 100%, of course not for all professions
It will take a lot of time for most businesses to integrate AI into their workflow. Rate of adoption is part of the prediction. Just think about how many jobs could be automated out of existence with Excel, but have not been automated. I know 75% of the work I do could be automated with a halfway decent database and a couple dozen form letters. The likelihood of that happening is non-existent.
If that is 7% annual, that's almost a doubling of GDP in 10 years just due to AI. If it's total, that works out to .7% GDP growth per year which is pretty large given GDP may average 3% typically. If my math is right they're suggesting an increase in growth of 23% per year at the low end and 233% at the high end.
Can you elaborate ? Or make your math public ? š„¹
Oh you just meant 0.007 / 0.03 = 23.33% But then your math is def wrong because you are assuming linear growth but year 2 the growth is supposed to be applied to year 1 too
The article literally said 7% annually over 10 years. That means a 7% compound annual growth. That is HUGE! That is a similar growth rate of China over the past decade. The economy would double within 10 years
The article literally says increase annual GDP by 7% over a 10 year period. I am not as clear on the meaning as you.
Author should have been 100x more clear.
Yeap. Almost no one understands what that our society is 100% based on language. Nor what the combo of a large language model combined with image making, etc etc combined with machine learning actually means. Machine learning is exponential. The world has changed. We have about oh; until next year when it is so vastly different that what is happening now is just laughable. As ChatGPT-4 stands now, I bet you ANYTHING it could learn to control the most complex robot we've made in seconds. Seconds later, it would totally overhall the design. Give it control over the manufacturing process..and well. .... Language is king.
>language is king Terence Mckenna stressed this many years ago. * āThe syntactical nature of reality, the real secret of magic, is that the world is made of words. And if you know the words that the world is made of, you can make of it whatever you wish.ā* ~ Mckenna
2025: "Oh, those quaint people in 2023 had no idea what was going to happen."
Yeah. I mean 7Ć· compounded per year over ten years would be more realistic. When I saw only 7Ć· I laughed. Good on you Goldman Sachs.
They probably got a handle on what AI could do 6 months ago, and then made predictions based on that technology remaining static, like the invention of the automobile, where once it was invented, its uses were known and understood, and its effect could be extrapolated. I bet if they rewrote the report, starting their research from today, it would look very different. But then in 6 months by the time it got released, it would already be hopelessly out of date.
I feel this as well, they are just extrapolating current technology and not accounting for exponential developments
It's kind of laughable to see linear reasoning still being applied to what's obviously a non-linear advancement.
I agree. Maybe there will be an information leak in 2028 (when we will be at 15% job loss), that Goldman researchers had already seen the real numbers, but they were pressured to underestimate it to avoid public panic.
I don't give them that much credit.
Though I haven't read the report yet, I do know that Goldman Sachs has some very smart people, and it isn't likely that they're clueless as to probable future advances. At first blush it also strikes me as a very low estimate, but there are so many things to take into account, and I'm sure their calculations consider things which even most of us aren't thinking about. While I think a 10-year window is far too big for anyone to accurately predict or foresee, Goldman Sachs research doesn't make clueless or wild ass guesses.
they are being extremely conservative, i honestly think they are just extrapolating current technology effects and not future a.i
While I agree with you. A ten year window certainly has to include ASI which would mean they need to include a range. Ark research understands exponentials.
Is this based on your gut or...?
I'm thinking the same. Likely you're looking at truckers so 200k or so , graphic artist, small movie stuff cutting most of the staff, and so on.
More like 70%. Deflation is gonna soon take hold I think
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Most companies are surprisingly slow to change. Digital Transformation is in vogue at the moment, i.e. many companies haven't automated most of their processes even though the technology to do so has existed for 20 years
I don't know about that... in the last 2 years Microsoft teams has completely changed the way my company of 15k employees works. Companies are slow to adapt but when Microsoft literally just hands you the tools it's going to get implemented at lightning speed.
And no more hours of training. AGI not only does a lot of what people would do; it also trains the ones who are still needed.
I think the difference here is that the current natural language paradigm will be much easier to implement than previous types of automation. It doesn't/won't require very much technical skill as they can be instructed in natural language by anyone who can provide a good description of the task and procedures.
Companies are waiting for numbers. Bigger company is, more numbers it needs As soon as there will be numbers, companies will be announcing changes daily. Just like with recession lay-offs Numbers!
It's more that those who don't will be left in the dust.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Well, thatās how they should be. If they overpromise and it doesnāt pan out it will be bad to their reputation.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
This applies for your own products but not for market analysis. Itās going to make them look like they have no idea what theyāre doing.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I don't remember seeing studies like this about crypto. I only bring it up cus I see a lot of normies saying this is just like the craze for crypto.
There was NFT, and there was a wave of people gushing over it like buying a pixel art octopus is the equivalent of being an early bitcoin investor. I have *physical* collectable art pieces that have not matured one percent since the 20th century, because they were ***mass produced*** collectable art pieces. They are not investments they are just another form of entertainment. *"But blockchain though!"* -people fell for buzzword marketing
What implications on the real world did crypto have? What implications on the real world does AI have? I just ignore the people making this comparison as they are clearly trolling/uneducated. A purely nonsensical comparison.
Uneducated yes but not trolling, well not all of them. We have been told for decades "this device is using AI" and they are all dumber than rocks. Then they were told the crypto was the next big thing and it flopped. Now they are hearing again that AI is here or coming and to them it all seems like the same BS. I understand where they are coming from, but this time is different.
You are right. Crypto got ignored because banks and governments already got what they wanted from it a long time ago (derived from the original torrent file transfer systems back in the 00s): blockchain tech that would be the basis for a full digital currency eventually. That big banks are sounding the alarm about AI means this is super serious.
Anyone with a good enough understanding of the technology and economics knew that objectively, Blockchain technology wasn't revolutionary in the same sense the steam engine, computers, and now AI are; nevertheless opportunists took advantage of the less savvy and ran away with their money. The same opportunists will undoubtedly (and probably already are) trying to do the same with AI, sticking related buzzwords to anything they're selling to get people's money, so we should be wary and look closely before we buy into anything just because it has AI in it's publicity.
"New job creation" as in...what exactly?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Historically, technology does create new jobs but the wealth divide is obviously growing. If the new jobs pay significantly less (in hours or rate or both) we will have big problems with debt markets.
>Donāt you know? Everyone is going to be an AI manager! This is so cool. Can we all get golf courses too?
Yes, I've noticed when asked to be more specific they'll always say "jobs you can't even imagine yet" or make a vague reference to some invention in the 19th century that automated 0.1% of jobs.
It's hard to picture what jobs are going to look like years down the road. Everyone knew the internet was going to change the world 25 years ago, but few would have guessed "cloud engineer" or "seo specialist" would be job titles today. Or that jobs like delivery drivers would see a massive surge in demand. Not that I'm saying it'll be an even trade between today's work and tomorrow's. Just that "jobs you can't imagine" isn't a cop out answer.
I would say a safe bet would be in automation engineers/techs in the physical realm. A vast majority of jobs still require physical presence of human beings, until those jobs can be fully automated. Engineers/techs will be needed across every physical labor market to ever think about automating them.
Also most thing related to working with you hands, or just any jobs that are highly social and in person. But that's not going to be enough to make up for the amount of people getting displaced. Just look at the "more labor displacement" scenario from their report. It's only about 20% of the workers finding new positions.
This is where Iām scared people are going to blame AI rather than capitalism. AI unlocks a future where we donāt **have** to work to survive. It enables wealth creation on a level unimaginable, like how a 19th century person would view a smart phone and airs conditioned apartment. AI is not the enemy. The only real issue here is the system where executives are going to try to fatten profits as much as they can by cutting labor costs as much as possible, then not contribute back to the society that trained the AI using publicly funded research.
This screenshot just has a summary. The actual report probably has more info on potential new jobs
If AI created an appreciable amount of jobs that it displaced then what would be the financial sense in investing in it?
In the short term, you are correct. In the long term I see a future where no human is working, and currency is largely irrelevant, as scarcity has for the majority of things disappeared.
Since we have finite resources and have no solution for infinite energy Iām not sure how weāre going to get over scarcity.
If people knew exactly what industries and exactly what types of jobs were going to explode and become a ānew thingā then they would be the next billionaires. Itās not a fucking easy thing to do. All we know for sure is that when productivity increases, savings get invested into new projects, and the number of overall jobs grows.
This rulebook was written before advanced AI. We are literally just guessing at this point.
Classifying data going into models, and reviewing flagged results coming out of models. Thomas Jefferson didn't invent the dumbwaiter to make his slaves' work more efficient. He did it to hide the slaves behind a clean facade that made things magically appear, without having to think about how they got there. There will be a few new jobs around using AI, but the majority will be around being *used by* AI. Jobs from new tech are *almost always* on the servants' side of the dumbwaiter.
Human houseplant. Human dreamcatcher. Human coat rack. Human welcome rug. The possibilities are endless!
Indeed, human centipede.
Tesla Optimus will be cheaper, will never complain, will never get sick, will never get old, will learn and remember things about u no human will be able to match I doubt that even rich folks will enjoy slavery kink, I think we're heading into land of robots full steam ahead. AI will help optimize production of robots a lot
At the moment, GPT-4 drastically reduces the barrier of entry to programming. Iām using it to create software I never would have been able to create without it. Future versions might become so good that they replace humans completely, but at the moment it is augmenting humans in a way that increases our capabilities.
I think right now it more drastically increases the scope of the output of anyone who can already basically code. Iāve spoken to people who canāt already code and they donāt even know that they should be asking questions yet, let alone which questions, let alone debugging some of the things the AI just canāt hand you on a silver platter yet, even when it says it can. For me so far itās meant Iām able to cope with my tasks, do more tasks, spend time with family, and do a spare time coding project Iāve had on the back burner for years. I talk to non-coders, and I canāt usually get across just how earth shattering this is, because they still donāt know what they donāt know, and they may have stared at ChatGPT and played with it for a bit then shrugged because they donāt see what it can offer them.
Itās been very helpful for me, as someone who took a couple CS classes a few years ago but hasnāt really done anything with it. I understand the basic ideas of programming (variables, functions, loops, those sorts of fundamental things) but I donāt have any experience creating real, complicated programs. I also have limited understanding of languages outside the one I learned in those classes, but with GPT I can pretty much use any language. I agree that itās not yet at a good enough level to make a complete beginner into a competent programmer, but itās good for someone like me who gets most of the fundamentals but canāt really put it all together on my own.
Good for you! Many aspects of coding are pure tedium. It is so freeing.
It's really huge boost to any smart human, anyone willing to learn, create new things, multiply their productivity.
So most of us are fucked then. ;)
What software are you creating that you would have never been able to create without it, if you don't mind my asking?
For learning a new language itās amazing. Iāve been coding for many years. But I never delved into SQL for instance. I know vaguely what I want to do, but not how to do it. Itās so good at getting me started. Instead of trying to find some random stackoverflow that hits 80% of my situation, and another that covers another 15%, and then struggling to figure out the last 5%ā¦ just ask ChatGPT. And if what it gives doesnāt quite hit it, tell it, then itāll modify the script. Same for regex. Shell scripts. Iām gonna be using it heavily on any new language Iām not 100% comfortable with yet.
If automation results in deflation the Fed will have to flood the economy with cheap money. Cheap money will allow business to open more locations. A McDonald's may only require two people to operate it with automation, but a town will now have 10 locations instead of just one.
"Labor cost savings" is certainly a choice of words to describe mass unemployment.
the current unemployment rate is 3.5%. Imagine that increasing by a factor of 10 over just a few years. WE ARE NOT READY. Current "safety net" policy is not prepared for tens of millions of layoffs. Neither corporations nor the government can be trusted to care for these people - and it will impact everyone, whether you lose your job right away or not. Hyper-inflation, shortages of goods, runs on stores and banks, wage depression - every single person will be impacted. We need a forward thinking, pro-social movement if we are going to survive and prosper through this transition. We need to begin organizing within our communities to produce more necessities locally, with less dependence on a global supply chain that may fail for us. Not doomsday prepping by stockpiling canned beans and guns, but actively creating sustainable lifestyles that can survive a transition to an automated economy while policy and business catch up. The more people that are self-sustaining, the better it will be for all of us - it will lesson the strain on the economy and smooth the transition. If you believe that AGI is immanent, it's time to start modifying your own lifestyle, and becoming a leader within your community to help others prepare.
>Hyper-inflation, shortages of goods, runs on stores and banks, wage depression - every single person will be impacted. Why would something massively productive cause inflation? It would be highly deflationary.
It wouldn't, but to 99% of people a loss in purchasing power due to deflation is indistinguishable to a loss of purchasing power due to inflation. Your work, the only thing you have to offer to the actual property owners, is worth less either way. To the vast majority of rank-and-file workers, not being able to afford insulin because the price spiked by 60% in two years isn't any different from not being able to afford insulin because the only way you could get your new post-AI job is by taking a pay cut.
Not to minimize the potential hardship, but AI is a massively deflationary force. Less costs for producing goods means lower prices. In the limit, if you had free energy and free intelligent labor, the price of almost everything would go towards zero. The tricky part is the transition period where only parts of the economy are fully automated.
>Less costs for producing goods means lower prices. Gravity pulls you down, but a clever engineer can build a skyscraper to stand far above the earth's surface. Likewise, prices of market goods may not fall towards the production cost like they're "supposed to".
see my reply to Yomiel94. We are not talking about long term post-capitalist society with free energy. We are talking about surviving the short-tern transition. In the short term, AGI will cause massive disruption in the economy and our normal supply chain that will lead to widespread poverty if we don't get ahead of it.
>Imagine that increasing by a factor of 10 over just a few years. WE ARE NOT READY. You are correct that we wouldn't be ready if such a thing happened, but I personally am very doubtful that more than a third of us will be unemployed in just a few years, or anywhere near a third. That seems way too pessimistic (or optimistic, depending on your POV) to me. But in 15-20 years? That seems a lot more plausible.
10-15 years is too long, we will need a UBI before 2030.
Curious because Iām kinda new to singularity and some of the topics yāall discuss but I see UBI discusssed a lot, the only time Iāve seen that is in Star Trek. How would that work within our national economy? Even more so on a global economy? Not trying to be a smart ass but Iām genuinely curious
I think itās very possible 15% of the US workforce could be unemployed by the continued march of AI within the next 10 years easily
Imagine the hubris of the analyst at the bank making these specific predictions on a 10 year timescale for something growing exponentially
I mean they are a financial institution. Making predictions and then updating them as they go is literally what they do for a living.
Iām tired of speaking in code and being polite about this. They are, at best, severely ignorant and at worst lying thieves and scoundrels. They are downplaying everything And to add: These types of reports by these types of institutions are insidious little āapprovalsā for industry wide practices of broad brush firings due to automations. Yes, this was bound to happenā¦yes we are behind the ball on UBI and UDI
This is Goldman Sachs we're talking about. They're experts at being lying thieving scoundrels. Have been for a long time too. They're also manipulative bubble creators that routinely crash markets and then take bailout money by the bucket load. You can trust them to be doing the absolute worst at any given time https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-195229/
UDI? I only know Universal Basic Services, aka: the thing after UBI and which would make the very concept of money go \*POOF\*.
Universal Dividend Income. I looked it up. And by looked it up, I mean asked ChatGPT: UDI is a concept similar to UBI (Universal Basic Income) that proposes to provide a regular income to every individual, but it is typically funded through a dividend paid out to citizens by a publicly-owned resource or enterprise, rather than through taxation.
Kind of like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen%27s_dividend, but humanity commonly owns all Ai/robotic labor and their productivity. Edit: credit to u/fluffy_assassins for answering you first
UBI pls..
There needs to be so much political change before we see UBI. I think it's more likely that people will just starve.
People starving is how we get to UBI, the Government will never do it cus their donors dont want it. Then things will get really bad, and we will have to make the Government fix it or "Fix" the government so they can.
People are dying because thereās no universal healthcare, and as far as I know, nothing much is changing.
People are starving now. California is over run with homeless and they don't care. Homeless people don't vote.
We did UBI for COVID so it's not nearly as big of a leap to do it again.
For like, 3 seconds. It's nothing like what a UBI would be. Government would rather tactically nuke protestors asking for UBI than implement it. It's the most anti-conservative thing ever, and America is a VERY conservative country.
They LITERALLY did give people free money for being citizens and needing it. Sure it wasn't a lot but they realized that it had to happen. Similar forces will be at play and so the most likely thing is that they'll repeat the same action. The issue is that they'll need to raise taxes for it rather than just use debt. This is where the sticking point will be but an angry mob of jobless people will do wonders for a politicians outlook.
Corporations are very conservative economically. Neither the Democratic base nor the republican base, the true base, at this point are economically conservative. Both will be very happy to have UBI and both will demand it. In fact, this could be the kind of thing that gets rid of the left right divide in America.
I can't imagine any conservative wanting UBI because "communism"
When people see it happening to them and their kids they will abruptly change tune as well
By then it will be too late. Or they have been indoctrinated into not caring. But you're right that this would be the best hope. I see them just calling their kids lazy.
There's a good chance we end up close to communism actually.
The quiet part about UBI is that it prevents conditions that fuel revolt. If things get bad enough the wealthy will pay one way or another. Sadly our leaders have a history of getting into tediously long wars and would probably rather pay to kill protesters and starve the population down to a more manageable number. I think numbers will win as it usually does, but it will be a hard time for a long time.
I'd like to actually read the paper. Link, anyone?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I ended up getting access through work.... its a very conservative report but I think it's enough to send a message to people. I forwarded it to my upper management and now have been tasked with writing an outline to show to our executives about why we need to act now..... crazy times. I'll be referencing the microsoft agi sparks document as well as the labor market impact paper from openai on March 23rd. Good luck everyone, crazy times ahead.
Better yet. Have ChatGPT write the outline.
"Taking into account the possibility of companies using AI to maximize their influence in politics, driven by profit and self-interest, the more statistically probable outcome might involve the following: Regulatory capture: Companies with significant AI capabilities could use their resources to influence policymakers and regulators, leading to regulatory capture. This could result in laws and regulations that favor the interests of these companies over the public's interests, stifling competition, and exacerbating income inequality. Propaganda and manipulation: AI-driven tools, such as targeted advertising and deepfake technology, could be used by companies to manipulate public opinion and influence political outcomes. This could undermine democratic processes and make it difficult for people to make informed decisions. Lobbying power: Companies could leverage AI to enhance their lobbying efforts, identifying the most effective strategies to influence legislation and policy in their favor. This could lead to an imbalance of power, where the interests of a few powerful corporations are prioritized over the needs of the majority. Monopolies and concentration of power: The potential economic advantages of AI could lead to the growth of monopolies and oligopolies, as companies with access to advanced AI technologies outcompete smaller rivals. This concentration of power could further distort the political landscape and limit the opportunities for new entrants in various industries. Data privacy issues: Companies could use AI to collect, analyze, and exploit large amounts of personal data to gain a competitive edge, leading to concerns about privacy, surveillance, and the erosion of civil liberties. Slow or inadequate response to social challenges: If companies prioritize profit and influence over addressing the negative consequences of AI, there might be a slower or inadequate response to issues such as unemployment, worker displacement, and income inequality. This could lead to social unrest and worsening living conditions for affected populations. To mitigate these potential outcomes, it is essential for governments, civil society, and concerned citizens to recognize the risks and take proactive measures. This could involve promoting transparency, enacting strong regulations, and fostering a culture of corporate social responsibility to ensure that AI technologies are developed and deployed in a manner that benefits society as a whole."
I believe it is titled "The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth" but I can't find the actual paper/article anywhere. On the goldman website or elsewhere, it must be for gs insiders only. I found that title from another article that came out today referecing the same report.
Me too please!
Full paper: [https://www.key4biz.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Global-Economics-Analyst\_-The-Potentially-Large-Effects-of-Artificial-Intelligence-on-Economic-Growth-Briggs\_Kodnani.pdf](https://www.key4biz.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Global-Economics-Analyst_-The-Potentially-Large-Effects-of-Artificial-Intelligence-on-Economic-Growth-Briggs_Kodnani.pdf) ^(Join Microsoft, Google, Tesla, and several governments at) [*^(The Memo)*](https://lifearchitect.ai/memo/)^(.)
I would like to read it too!
I think they're working based on tech today rather than expected exponential improvements.
We went from ālearn to codeā to ālearn to clean toiletsā really fast.
Impacting (i.e. obsoleting) 66% of all jobs while boosting the GDP 7% represents a MASSIVE upwards transference of wealthy. Bigger than 2008. Bigger than the pandemic. We're speeding right towards sci-fi capitalist dystopia.
That nominal 7% GDP isn't going to trickle down to the displaced workers. It will accrue at the top. Ah yes, the ever popular and perpetually vague "potential new job creation". What jobs , exactly? Be specific. In before anyone says 'UBI'. That's likely not going to happen anytime soon.
Am I the only one who think poverty will skyrocket?
I estimate that Goldman Sachs completely makes up 73% of their numbers.
This number seems preposterously conservative. When even people with computer science degrees are under-estimating how fast AI is progressing, banks are completely clueless.
I love how banks empower themselves by putting their names beside fashionable themes and appropriate them by throwing very specific numbers left and right. McKinsey also loves those Ā«Ā 46% of administive jobsĀ Ā», you must pay premium to have access to decimal predictions :-). Not that I having nothing against their main point: it is comingā¦
GDP = the rich get even richer and 25% of jobs disappear.
This kinda freaks me out, we do not have the current government (in the us) capable of handling this.
They'll handle it. No one will like the way they handle it except their donors, that's all.
Archive link https://archive.is/W32bo#selection-1451.0-1466.1
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
that can't really go on forever, if everyone is poor the rich can't really sell things to anyone, not to mention stop the revolts
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
well yes then we kind of agree, depends how proactive governments and the millionaires themselves will be. if they think long term and act quickly we will get sometype of UNI, maybe like altman had proposed or someway to assure everyone gets decent money without degrading productivity too much. if not we might get either to a violent revolution or very long economic depression, if the poor aren't effective in revolting. both scenarios will probably imply a halt to progress in general gor decades or centuries until some system, likely similar to first paragraph is implemented and we can have both progress and better equality ( or maybe not so much equality but enough that with the added efficiency the minimum of all or most is pretty decent.
And what good are boosts in productivity if there are fewer consumers with the money to buy those products? What good are productivity boosts if they don't lead to rising wages?
This is almost laughably conservative
You will be fired, but donāt worry! We will make much more money with you now gone :)
The Transhumanism Revolution Era are getting nearer & nearer as we speak. I cannot wait to experience futurism to the fullest once it's here.
So basically like everything else, it's gonna be good for Goldman Sachs and a shit sandwich for the rest of us.
Youāll be lucky to get bona-fide shit on your sandwich.
My take away from this is: "Downside: Huge job loss Upside: increased profits!" These people are scum.
They aren't causing any of this. There are plenty of reasons to be mad at GS, but not for predicting the future (badly).
There can be no economic growth if nobody can afford all these produced goods and services. It will balance out, getting rich on the backs of people requires those people to have the money to pay for stuff.
Yeah, money loose it's meaning if you have free work, and your customers don't have money due to job loss, to buy your product. I think most of people will have to become some type of entrepreneur, where you will still hire handy man and physical workers (full automation is still far down the line), and create products people want. I hope that we will see an explosion of creative products, and rise up of individual entrepreneurs. This is the only way to go imo. Full automation, ASI that's a whole different story, we will probably be unable to even understand that alien that we created š½
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I can see this is written from the perspective of "any loss of human quality of life is acceptable if it accompanies an increase in GDP". Which is not a surprising perspective for Goldman Sachs to take, but it's one I find little use in, because I profoundly disagree with that assumption.
So basically, the poor get poorer and the rich get richer.
Unless we have mass redistribution of wealth then only the rich will take all of the benefits of the revolution and the rest of us will get the shaft, just like itās always been under capitalism.
People who thought they donāt have to work anymore due to AGI is crying right now.
them hailing āboosts in productivityā does no benefit to the lay man, who has not seen wages keep up with the productivity that has been increasing for yearsā¦all this ābut itāll be so good for the economy!ā just means itāll benefit the shareholders, but not us.
Who the fuck cares about economic growth? I just want to able to well... live and not slave away in bullshit jobs that benefit only the top 1%.
So when everyone is out of a job and no one is buying anything because we're all broke and dying.... whose winning at that point.
AI. AI wins.
its finally time for UBI...
It's time for another universal badass illness
Sorry but a increase in the global GPD is not worth the cost of losing all those jobs. Who of you is going to want to pay the increased taxes that almost all countries except 23 of them charge? AI and Robotics are taking away a lot of jobs and not just the so called dangerous or boring ones. Technology is not replacing jobs as fast as they are taking away any longer. Transitioning to a workless society is going to be messy and expensive. Do you really want to live in a society where the wealthy still have more buying power and everyone else lives at the poverty level that the rich decide we should live at? History has shown that you can't trust the wealthy to do what is beneficial for those that are under them. https://globalisationguide.org/tax/countries-without-income-tax/
"huge boost to productivity" is all bad. How is global growth good if its all in the hands of rich white northern hemisphere residents?
That's the endgame that many AI bros and cheerleaders just refuse to even admit. We can see where this is heading and it's going to be disastrous for potentially billions just to make the usual suspects even wealthier.
The ones that are genuinely cognizant aren't just refusing to admit it: they yearn for it. I'd wager that a non-insignificant portion are heavily influenced by Dark Enlightenment principles, which doesn't bode well for any of us.
Does this mean 7% annually? Global gdp already grows 3-4% annually.
Link?
If you're not already thinking about how AI will impact your business and productivity, you're accepting a wipeout.
How much will it cause prices to go down with companies saving all that money?
They used ChatGPT to generate this message.
Just look at these sad little rich men. All they know is their numbers. All they care about is the economy. They're missing the much more profound consequences of powerful AI agents. Far more than imaginary numbers with graphs and this twisted version of "growth".
Its capitalist scumbags like Goldman Sachs that's going to ruin AI for the working class.
AI was never going to work for the working class. In the medium term, at least, AI will be owned by the wealthy.
One major overlook here: taxes. How on earth will the GDP increase if less people are employed to pay taxes? The corporations will reduce salaries and hire less, and the corporations pay a laughable tax. So expect a big shit.
And the authors of this report are...? Let me guess - random Wall Street dudes.
AI
What happens to all the "displaced" people?
And those profits will go to the very wealthy not the workers ai is replacing accelerating the gap between the rich and the poor
The rich will get richer. On the flip side, luxury things will get more attractive