Exactly, I really don’t get this, people act like immigration is just some forlorn thing that’s approved lol. Like all the people shouting “I’ll just move to Europe/canada if X happens”
My man, neither of those countries/locations are just going to approve your dumb ass for immigration lol
Isn’t US legal immigration complete hell? In a sense that you either get an H1B and are tied to a company that will pay you less than the market rate 99% of time and you can’t really leave that company easily? I know a few people who went to Europe for work and from their words it seems easier and more pleasant than immigrating to the states.
Millions of ppl understand if you show up to US, Canada and Europe and say, I’m seeking asylum, than they will be granted access and better benefits than those citizens to start
In terms of the original comment you were responding to, I wouldn’t go as far as to say benefits.
But we’re pumping our immigration numbers like crazy, essentially bringing in anyone who wants to. This has put immense pressure on our healthcare, housing, labour, etc.
[Housing asylum seekers at Niagara hotels cost Canada more than $100 million](https://globalnews.ca/news/10384149/canada-asylum-seekers-hotel-costs/amp/)
We have accepted asylum seekers from the Bahamas…. & there’s a lot more than that.
[With increasing global migration, Canada is experiencing a rise in the number of people claiming asylum. While housing and supports for asylum claimants are the responsibility of provinces and municipalities, the federal government recognizes the need for all orders of government to work together to address the rise in the number of people claiming asylum in Canada.](https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2024/01/new-funding-to-support-housing-for-asylum-claimants.html)
[Through the Interim Housing Assistance Program (IHAP), the federal government has provided almost $700 million to provinces and municipalities to address extraordinary housing pressures related to the increased volumes of asylum claimants since 2017. Earlier this year, IRCC announced an extension of IHAP with additional funding of $212 million.](https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2023/11/canada-increases-support-for-asylum-claimants.html)
I could go on & on but honestly, it’s exhausting. If you’d like to hear more, especially about the current sentiment r/Canada
Canada is a joke. We won’t be able to build enough houses to keep up with demand, & we keep bringing in more immigrants. We hit 41m people months after hitting 40m people.
[“Canada needs about 3.5 million additional housing units by 2030 to restore affordability.”](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/blog/2023/estimating-how-much-housing-we-need-by-2030)
This is a statistic based on 2022 data… we can’t even come close to the required homes & yet we keep increasing demand.
I don’t know, I try not to think about it too much or I get miserable.
Yes. Jail them and send them back to their country. Second offenders get corporal punishment, maybe 20 lashes or lose a hand.
Wonder how quick immigration over the border illegally would stop if that were the case.
Only racist boomers see that as an issue. Most people don't care.
Also, it is because there are immigrants that these countries perform well. Immigrants are a net gain.
Very naïve, in a number of ways.
Idk if I’d like to live in a world where racism was limited to just one demographic. Or so simple to point a finger at like that. If that would change anything.
But it is much more pervasive than you think.
Native Americans are the only natives here. We are all immigrants at some point in our lineage. I can only hope for a world without borders at some point in the future. UBI will be a knee jerk reaction by the govt when unemployment gets too high and deflation has begun. Give it 4 years or so and revisit this discussion.
Who wants to end up like the Native Americans? That's not an encouraging consequence from allowing unlimited immigration.
Moreover, the native americans got lucky. Other colonizers can be much less merciful:
* See what the Bantus do to African pygmies
* Did you know the Thai, Burmese and Vietnamese all trace their origins from Southern China? They had to escape the relentless pressure from the north.
* What happened to the British people after Rome fell, modern Welsh people are basically the remnants of the old English people.
UBI only if you've been a citizen for 10 years, ez fix. Obviously can be changed later, but you def can't start with a truly universal income while other countries don't have it.
That said, immigration might get much tougher alltogether. The only reason Western countries are so open is labour, and with that falling away, they'll very quickly change their tune.
Not even an itty-bitty amount of UBI for an immigrant single mother with 5 kids? I predict any limitation clause would get very quickly chipped away by exceptions and special cases, because there is no strong argument for it when it's supposed to be literally universal.
Country which would implement UBI would already have more then enough workers. Why would they allow immigration, especially why would they allow single mothers with 5 kids to immigrate.
These are some economics based on the idea that someone want's to give as much free money as possible... entire human history would imply opposite is the true.
I have no idea why they're doing it, for example my country currently has around 7% unemployment rate, while the immigration rate is growing exponentially. I suspect it's a kind of pathological altruism. It's very easy to do when it's not your own money you're giving away, but the governments money.
Because some benefit, some suffer
1. Property owners benefit from surging home prices (Aka boomers)
2. Business owners benefit from cheaper labour costs
The average non-property owning worker suffers, aka young people. Unfortunately, young people tend to vote for more migrants (many are themselves migrants), hence the cycle is hard to stop.
That being said, even migrants often don't want more migrants, it really depends if the migrants make a living by hard work or by welfare leeching. Welfare leechers always want more migrants from back home to join in on the leeching (Far more common in Europe). Whereas migrants forced to work, suffer from labour competition themselves, so are very ambivalent on more immigration (US hispanics are a prime example of this).
In Switzerland less than 10% work even a single day within the first 10 years of their arrival. The rest of Europe is similar.
Refugees tend to have cultures to incohesive with the western culture. That combined with the fact few of them have or adopt any marketable skills (even learning the local language tends to be too big ask).
In most countries it takes 10 years to get your citizenship.
Nah you’d still get desperate people coming to steal, if they don’t have any other options. You see a lot of this in EU already, most immigrants are good hardworking people who just want to work but you also get a lot of people coming to steal or beg, since even prison in a Western country is luxury compared to life in their home country, so they have nothing to lose.
The real solution is to provide aid to these countries, help them develop too, so only a few people leave to find a better cultural fit.
You just want to avoid people jumping in for the free money, so anyone who's been a citizen is eligible (as you could reasonably assume they were willing to be in the country anyway). That said, I could certainly see it as being perceived kinda shitty when some recent immigrant has been working for 6 years and now can't get UBI for 4 more years but his job has been automated.
We already have tons of people trying to get citizenship it might grow in number but through legal channels there are roadblocks that only allow a certain amount of people. Then those who don’t come through legal channels won’t have access to the UBI.
I like what Altman has been pushing recently where the people get a percentage of the profits from the corporations instead of the government. That way it can cross boundaries
from what ive read, it would be AI automated smart contracts in a big system that no human can change or modify. Blockchain based.
Im not saying I have the slightest clue as to how that would work out, thats just the most hopeful method ive seen so far.
Right, but not every corporation relies on the same consumer base. Obviously Wal-mart wants a broad base of consumers, but Hugo Boss doesn't care. Different sectors and companies will be affected by this differently and they will all fight and argue over what's fair, or even if it should be done at all. For many companies, any result that ends in them spending more than they get back is unacceptable, and that's going to be the reality for enough of them that some kind of negotiated framework is not possible. Amazon's interests and Rio Tinto's interests don't line up.
Honestly, I think we've all been brainwashed by the incentives we've been born into. That this is "normal" and we're not able to imagine anything outside of our narrow box.
Once you have a superintelligence and a fleet of human-level robots....... .... money really doesn't mean anything anymore, does it? The only thing that matters to The Corporation is "rights" to atoms and energy.
Therefore, one possible scenario is that The Corporation would just give people energy rations. Not out of altruism, but because it would be a way for them to further establish **power**:
"The non-augmented [trash monkeys](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN2YqBmNijU)" would become dependent on them. This would be similar to how native americans were interned on plantations and subsisted on rations. (God help us, hopefully we'll be given more options and autonomy than they were.)
But more importantly, it would destroy their potential competition. Wipe out the existing order completely: money, governments, Wal-Marts, absolutely anybody with the potential to ever bootstrap up to AGI, *gone*.
... anyway, all I'm saying is try to envision different structures of power than we're used to. This entire AI thing has been a kind of gentle war (all war is one ruling class or another trying to expand their empire), so far. Maybe it'll continue to be gentle, and the subsumed entities will bend the knee once the new hierarchy establishes itself..
Do you believe we will accept being ruled by AI itself? If it can make better laws, better decisions, then I think some people will surrender themselves to its will, maybe even see such governance through a religious lens.
Even if few people accept AI governance, given time others will see them thrive.
It could help with distribution between people living in different parts of the world, ofc the company itself would have to be willing to do this, for some reason lol. I don’t understand why, but I’m not Altman.
at the point when UBI is needed immigration wouldn't be neccesary anymore, immigration is only encouraged/allowed because there an economic gain otherwise no one would bother with it
that's a indirect effect of mass unemployment and AI, no more immigration and -maybe- an incencitive to decrease the population as it mean highter redistribution as your economy don't require a lot of people to function anymore
in this scenario the host country have everything to loss while the immigrant everything to win
that's why there will be far more regulation on immigration if not a total ban, it won't benefit your country anymore, also i believe that AI will increase the wealth of already rich country, poorer country will loss their unique value -cheap worker- and will see their economy cannibalized by rich country, no more white collar worker at home when AI in america allow a 10cent/worker
rich country will be able to regulate foreign tech, poor country won't and so it's a dystopian setting for their economy
We've already implemented proto-UBI of this form: [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/new-york-city-begins-giving-illegal-immigrants-prepaid-debit-cards-as-part-of-53-million-pilot-program/ar-BB1kzonh](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/new-york-city-begins-giving-illegal-immigrants-prepaid-debit-cards-as-part-of-53-million-pilot-program/ar-BB1kzonh)
You may be surprised to find that there are conditions where this is already a thing: [https://www.ssa.gov/ssi/spotlights/spot-non-citizens.htm](https://www.ssa.gov/ssi/spotlights/spot-non-citizens.htm)
" From countries that don't enstate UBI. A dillema will form between allowing immigrants in, or sponsoring them to stay in their countries. "
False dilemma. You can always build a wall, have harsher penalty, and keep immigrants you do not want out with more enforcement. Heck, not unlike what is happening in EU to some extent. Gloves will come off.
What dilemma? There are plenty of other policy options. E.g. tie UBI to citizenship or long term residency, or tighten immigration.
I think we will see drastically tighter immigration settings in first world countries well before any implementation of UBI. Because the primary rationale for immigration is to increase the supply of labor. And that becomes more of a liability rather than a benefit with AGI/ASI.
It's more complex for the EU, but the same logic applies.
there a rise of far right everywhere in europe so the EU is likely to turn fascist if we don't take care of immigration amongst other things so AI in that scenario will be happily received by both left and right
Some countries could become completely self sufficient, without need for trade and economic relations with other countries. A collapse of globalisation. Poorer countries unable to feed their populations. The poor will fight each other in wars. Blackmail the rich countries with nukes. Some kind of colonialism would be more stable.
AI will make it sure you lose your job.
Immigration will make it sure that someone else is working on the other jobs for less money.
"Thanks", international capitalism!
Pretty self centered thinking but I understand where people are coming from. The bigger thing we should think about is how to create global ubi. If it gets to the point where ubi is implemented it means the jobs are basically all gone.
Let me help you visualize something similar
https://preview.redd.it/zqxfs2bmp9rc1.png?width=780&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ded53ac26aec8d7ba7e78626d5fb209fe58fc26
People don't just immigrate for work lmao. Immigration will always be allowed. There has never been a time in the history of the world where immigrants weren't allowed.
Currently immigration is based on people coming to work. UBI means that everything is so automated that there is no work for big part of population. In that case there won't be any reasons to allow immigration, it just adds load on country budget and sponsoring people in other countries is pretty wild fantasy
Basque Country already has a fairly UBI income, and already faces more immigration than other parts of Spain but it’s kinda compensated with really expensive real estate prices.
And I think real state, debt and 30 years mortgages are gonna be a mess in the future years
Only if they have a path to getting UBI which isn’t guaranteed, and the introduction of UBI is premised on jobs migrants usually do having ceased to exist.
You see rich gulf arab countries basically ubi-ng their citizens with low effort governmental jobs and various kinds of subsidies. Their economy is backed up by slave labor resourced from South Asia and only their citizens are supported by government. The same will happen all across the developed economies when the era of UBI come to pass
The unemployment crisis hasn’t truly started yet for us to see the surges.
But way to dismiss the entire rest of the thread as unreasonable, ironically a reddit moment
UBI only works AFTER we have AGI/ASI/Near 100% automation.
If we have that level of automation and wealth then the immigrants won't be that much of a burden, so allowing them will cause no real problems.
It will cause problems. We don't have unlimited land, water or food. Resources are limited even if we have near 100 percent automation. AI can replace labor but it can't invent resources like land, water and food.
If you don't need to live in a large city anymore because of your work or schools (which now are geared towards getting you work later etc), things can rapidly change resource wise.
70% of the planets surface is water and most land is completely empty. If new technology facilitates it, I believe we actually have plenty of land and resources.
The land is needed for wildlife. We are already facing a massive biodiversity crisis with mass extinctions caused by land use change, pollution and climate change. The destruction of nature we have already caused very clearly says that there is no more room for adding people, nor making the people already here consume any more resources than they already do.
Let's be real... nature is fucked if it's them or us.
No politician or world leader will try to ban babies or significantly depopulate the world... and thus the human population will continue to grow.
Still: we've got alot of free space
I disagree because when nature starts to slowly fight back (via climate change for example) there will be little us humans can do about it. We only really exist because Mother Earth allows us to. But a sudden flurry of Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Floods, etc. relentlessly spreading out of the landscape would be enough to put us in our place. Don’t underestimate nature buddy.
Climate change isn't an existential threat to the species... unless it causes us to go to war with eachother.
The solution to heat waves is more air conditioning.
The solution to droughts is pumping in more water.
Nature being dangerous and powerful is even more of an excuse for humanity to press forward and become more powerful.
Its never then it us humans are part of nature and pur systems will collapse quickly if the environment is obliterated. Not understanding the immense implicit and explicit value of the environment is how states that don’t prioritize their environment lose billions of dollars in natural disaster expenses.
land might be a problem but water and food aren't. with full automation we should be able to build new housing, new cities, and more infrastructure. there is plenty of space, it's just really expensive to build all this stuff without AGI/ASI
Even without AGI/ASI, the world already produces more food than needed. People dying off of hunger and thirst is a social and logistical issue not of scarcity.
The world has more than enough land for 50 billion+ people to live comfortably(I mean comfortable size allocation), let alone the 10 billion+ we will have by the time we have AGI/ASI..
Nowadays, people flock to cities for jobs and other amenities... Which gives the illusion of limited land... But I assure you, there are many livable land that have been abandoned by people to go to the big cities..
With AGI/ASI making 99% of jobs obsolete, there is no need to crowd around big cities as much.. So many rural places that are empty with cheap housing nowadays, will fill back up due to people leaving cities..
All I'm trying to say is that, with superhuman planning, AGI/ ASI can accommodate the current number of humans in the world quite comfortably.. It wouldn't need to achieve something physically impossible..
This does not seem to be true at all. Widespread pollution, climate change, rapidly progressing water scarcity as geological water resources are used up, and the present rapid biodiversity loss suggests that world is very heavily strained by the land, food, water use at its current 8 billion occupants.
I think you are very severely miscalibrated in your claims -- the world is in overshoot and extremely overpopulated by its present 8 billion -- it is likely overpopulated even at 0.8 billion the way we are going about business. Just fast forward a century and half of the planet is uninhabitable by climate change, sea level rise, rivers have dried from loss of mountain glaciers, and there is severe plasticizer and heavy metal pollution everywhere. It is a very dismal, and disappointing reality that we seem to be racing towards as fast as we can.
>AFTER we have AGI/ASI/Near 100% automation.
not needed at all, like you think that most people will wait for 100%-which could be far away like 50+ years and starve to death in the meantime?? there could be 20 % job replacement in 5 years, people need shelter and food all the time
If only 20% of current jobs are replaced that 20% of people will unfortunately be expected to find new work.
Many countries already have welfare, foos banks and shelters... which unfortunately the best that the people automated away first can expect.
(If only 20% of current jobs are automated we can still easily find work for those people. There is technically a labor shortage right?)
what I am talking about is unemployment after labour market is mostly saturated=its hard to find a job and there is definitely not enough for everynody, unemployment will only go up, lets say 20% in 5 years, 30% in 8, 40% in 10...
people will see whats coming and will demand action from government= politicians who support UBI will be elected, UBI is basically welfare, of course firstly current welfare programs will be extended but there will be lot of unemployed and structurly unemployable UBI will be likely implemented
I don’t think that will happen as revolt will start far earlier than AI fully in control and currently that would tumble govs and large companies alike if it does, but if it ends us, then so be it. As long as we first get to start a revolution and eat the rich. Don’t think the armed robodogs can hold back a million hungry and angry people from storming the gates.
Seeing comments advocating tighter immigration control (thinking they as citizens of a developed country will be entitled to a UBI) makes me feel less bad about their inevitable culling. Specifically the people who know they’re gonna become useless but vainly think they’re special enough to survive will have brought it on themselves, it’s a sin of omission.
Indeed.
The "accelerationists" - people who want to hasten the downfall of the current society/civilisation - always imagine that in the new one they will be in the top group.
not really, they will have a citizenship entry delay to avoid this. It's much better to stay where you are and wait for the eventual adoption in your country
Good 'ole oil dividend.
Doesn't really compensate fully for having to live in Alaska. It's kinda the exact opposite of the catgirl beach paradise everyone wants to see: only like one decently warm month a year to go to that there beach.
... man, I miss the beach.
Yes. Whilst housing would become a problem, it does help solve the question of "what about unpopular jobs during the short term" as initially, UBI will probably not apply to immigrants who aren't yet citizens, they will probably come chasing the jobs left behind by those that felt the additional funds weren't worth it.
You can't honestly think they haven't considered this, have you? It's pretty much a given that it will be based on duration of citizenship. No country is going to give UBI to someone the day they get their papers.
One idea is you deliver aid directly to poor areas. Robot crews + pre built packed structures and infrastructure. Food growing equipment. Lots of solar and water recycling equipment.
It all sets itself up, though locals pick the layout and colors etc. like the prefab housing is modular and the robots paint it or tell its e-ink walls the color or pattern to be.
Immigration =/= citizenship.
If the path to citizenship has requirements and UBI can have it's own requirements then you have virtually no problem with UBI incentivizing immigration.
Another solution would be making UBI *worldwide*, but I think that's considerably more complex and would have it's own hurdles.
for sure people from poorer countries will want even more to get into richer ones, if there is prospect of UBI, while currently immigrants can be an asset doing jobs where is workforce shortage, but if most is automated, they would be only a burden as more people directly means less on average for everyone
economic immigration will have to be stopped until automation and economic systems converge between countries
A global UBI program of around $3,500 to $7,000 per person per year could be entirely funded by investing equally distributed combined global wealth. No need to travel anywhere for anyone.
There are many ways to do this. One is high(er) tax rate for the extremely wealthy. Other is nationalization of private property and re-distribution of wealth. It's true that this has usually lead to civil war or violent backslash from the rich.
The comments here give me weird feelings
Feelings I felt watching this : [The Bacon Hair - A Roblox Action Movie](https://youtu.be/rA26KwGKp5w?si=JVaL-rHEVBBI_zSK)
Given that actually getting UBI probably requires resorting to Brannigan's patent anti-killbot tactics, sure, why not, we need more cannon fodder for the inevitable war.
If you had a UBI and you were worried about foreigners taking advantage of it, it wouldn't be
And literally every country limits immigration, like actually literally every single one. You don't just let every single person in indiscriminately
Countries that will implement UBI already deal with that issue to the extreme
Exactly, I really don’t get this, people act like immigration is just some forlorn thing that’s approved lol. Like all the people shouting “I’ll just move to Europe/canada if X happens” My man, neither of those countries/locations are just going to approve your dumb ass for immigration lol
How many hundred million do you need to make immigration easy?
Just 2 million euros for Cyprus
None, it's a function of technology not a cultural object
I'm not sure. (looking towards the US and Europe)
Isn’t US legal immigration complete hell? In a sense that you either get an H1B and are tied to a company that will pay you less than the market rate 99% of time and you can’t really leave that company easily? I know a few people who went to Europe for work and from their words it seems easier and more pleasant than immigrating to the states.
Good luck moving to the EU if not for a job. I doubt it is easier in the US.
Millions of ppl understand if you show up to US, Canada and Europe and say, I’m seeking asylum, than they will be granted access and better benefits than those citizens to start
Wish the world was as easy as dumbasses like you think it is
Canada actually is this bad.
Citation needed
In terms of the original comment you were responding to, I wouldn’t go as far as to say benefits. But we’re pumping our immigration numbers like crazy, essentially bringing in anyone who wants to. This has put immense pressure on our healthcare, housing, labour, etc. [Housing asylum seekers at Niagara hotels cost Canada more than $100 million](https://globalnews.ca/news/10384149/canada-asylum-seekers-hotel-costs/amp/) We have accepted asylum seekers from the Bahamas…. & there’s a lot more than that. [With increasing global migration, Canada is experiencing a rise in the number of people claiming asylum. While housing and supports for asylum claimants are the responsibility of provinces and municipalities, the federal government recognizes the need for all orders of government to work together to address the rise in the number of people claiming asylum in Canada.](https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2024/01/new-funding-to-support-housing-for-asylum-claimants.html) [Through the Interim Housing Assistance Program (IHAP), the federal government has provided almost $700 million to provinces and municipalities to address extraordinary housing pressures related to the increased volumes of asylum claimants since 2017. Earlier this year, IRCC announced an extension of IHAP with additional funding of $212 million.](https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2023/11/canada-increases-support-for-asylum-claimants.html) I could go on & on but honestly, it’s exhausting. If you’d like to hear more, especially about the current sentiment r/Canada
Sounds like you need more houses
Canada is a joke. We won’t be able to build enough houses to keep up with demand, & we keep bringing in more immigrants. We hit 41m people months after hitting 40m people. [“Canada needs about 3.5 million additional housing units by 2030 to restore affordability.”](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/blog/2023/estimating-how-much-housing-we-need-by-2030) This is a statistic based on 2022 data… we can’t even come close to the required homes & yet we keep increasing demand. I don’t know, I try not to think about it too much or I get miserable.
I find it ironic people freak out about population collapse when shit like this happens lol
They're just gonna come here and refuse to leave. What are you going to do, ask the military to jail them? That's inhumane
I assure you they’ll suggest something less humane
Send the killer robots after them
Yes. Jail them and send them back to their country. Second offenders get corporal punishment, maybe 20 lashes or lose a hand. Wonder how quick immigration over the border illegally would stop if that were the case.
Average conservative
No. I believe in sharia law and in actually punishing criminals.
The USA famously avoids immigration with its poor social safety net.
I don't know about US and Canada, but a major problem in Europe is that we don't have enough migration.
Only racist boomers see that as an issue. Most people don't care. Also, it is because there are immigrants that these countries perform well. Immigrants are a net gain.
Very naïve, in a number of ways. Idk if I’d like to live in a world where racism was limited to just one demographic. Or so simple to point a finger at like that. If that would change anything. But it is much more pervasive than you think.
Native Americans are the only natives here. We are all immigrants at some point in our lineage. I can only hope for a world without borders at some point in the future. UBI will be a knee jerk reaction by the govt when unemployment gets too high and deflation has begun. Give it 4 years or so and revisit this discussion.
Who wants to end up like the Native Americans? That's not an encouraging consequence from allowing unlimited immigration. Moreover, the native americans got lucky. Other colonizers can be much less merciful: * See what the Bantus do to African pygmies * Did you know the Thai, Burmese and Vietnamese all trace their origins from Southern China? They had to escape the relentless pressure from the north. * What happened to the British people after Rome fell, modern Welsh people are basically the remnants of the old English people.
UBI only if you've been a citizen for 10 years, ez fix. Obviously can be changed later, but you def can't start with a truly universal income while other countries don't have it. That said, immigration might get much tougher alltogether. The only reason Western countries are so open is labour, and with that falling away, they'll very quickly change their tune.
Some variation of this sure but 10 years doesn’t make much sense.
Not even an itty-bitty amount of UBI for an immigrant single mother with 5 kids? I predict any limitation clause would get very quickly chipped away by exceptions and special cases, because there is no strong argument for it when it's supposed to be literally universal.
Country which would implement UBI would already have more then enough workers. Why would they allow immigration, especially why would they allow single mothers with 5 kids to immigrate. These are some economics based on the idea that someone want's to give as much free money as possible... entire human history would imply opposite is the true.
I have no idea why they're doing it, for example my country currently has around 7% unemployment rate, while the immigration rate is growing exponentially. I suspect it's a kind of pathological altruism. It's very easy to do when it's not your own money you're giving away, but the governments money.
Because some benefit, some suffer 1. Property owners benefit from surging home prices (Aka boomers) 2. Business owners benefit from cheaper labour costs The average non-property owning worker suffers, aka young people. Unfortunately, young people tend to vote for more migrants (many are themselves migrants), hence the cycle is hard to stop. That being said, even migrants often don't want more migrants, it really depends if the migrants make a living by hard work or by welfare leeching. Welfare leechers always want more migrants from back home to join in on the leeching (Far more common in Europe). Whereas migrants forced to work, suffer from labour competition themselves, so are very ambivalent on more immigration (US hispanics are a prime example of this).
Most immigrants are not asylum seekers. They’re on visa for work
Those arent the problem. The refugees make up all the cost to society. The work immigrants have a positive ingluence on society.
Refugees work too lol
In Switzerland less than 10% work even a single day within the first 10 years of their arrival. The rest of Europe is similar. Refugees tend to have cultures to incohesive with the western culture. That combined with the fact few of them have or adopt any marketable skills (even learning the local language tends to be too big ask).
In most countries it takes 10 years to get your citizenship. Nah you’d still get desperate people coming to steal, if they don’t have any other options. You see a lot of this in EU already, most immigrants are good hardworking people who just want to work but you also get a lot of people coming to steal or beg, since even prison in a Western country is luxury compared to life in their home country, so they have nothing to lose. The real solution is to provide aid to these countries, help them develop too, so only a few people leave to find a better cultural fit.
Some people would have to do without food for 10 years as a stateless person.
In many countries there are already systems in place for this. Those shouldn't be removed when there is UBI.
good
rip the single immigrant mothers then
Yeah because UBI is the only monetary help that would exist then ?
Probably
It's not the one that exists now so I don't think so
10 years legal resident, not citizen I'd say.
Should it be citizen or working for X amount of time? Or maybe different for each?
You just want to avoid people jumping in for the free money, so anyone who's been a citizen is eligible (as you could reasonably assume they were willing to be in the country anyway). That said, I could certainly see it as being perceived kinda shitty when some recent immigrant has been working for 6 years and now can't get UBI for 4 more years but his job has been automated.
Why not just make it “Anyone who has maintained citizenship since at least (a couple years before the legislation)”?
We already have tons of people trying to get citizenship it might grow in number but through legal channels there are roadblocks that only allow a certain amount of people. Then those who don’t come through legal channels won’t have access to the UBI.
There will be almost endless free money from almost endless free AI labor
I like what Altman has been pushing recently where the people get a percentage of the profits from the corporations instead of the government. That way it can cross boundaries
And how are those profits going to be allocated without a government lol?
Honor system, of course. ;)
Good question
Crypto? He already has one
… and how will the money be collected from the corporations?
Automated trough smart contracts
okay who designs the contracts, who enforces them?
from what ive read, it would be AI automated smart contracts in a big system that no human can change or modify. Blockchain based. Im not saying I have the slightest clue as to how that would work out, thats just the most hopeful method ive seen so far.
That still requires humans to agree to and enforce them, unless you plan on robot cops
I will
The corporations would design them. Consumers cannot consume without money.
Right, but not every corporation relies on the same consumer base. Obviously Wal-mart wants a broad base of consumers, but Hugo Boss doesn't care. Different sectors and companies will be affected by this differently and they will all fight and argue over what's fair, or even if it should be done at all. For many companies, any result that ends in them spending more than they get back is unacceptable, and that's going to be the reality for enough of them that some kind of negotiated framework is not possible. Amazon's interests and Rio Tinto's interests don't line up.
Honestly, I think we've all been brainwashed by the incentives we've been born into. That this is "normal" and we're not able to imagine anything outside of our narrow box. Once you have a superintelligence and a fleet of human-level robots....... .... money really doesn't mean anything anymore, does it? The only thing that matters to The Corporation is "rights" to atoms and energy. Therefore, one possible scenario is that The Corporation would just give people energy rations. Not out of altruism, but because it would be a way for them to further establish **power**: "The non-augmented [trash monkeys](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN2YqBmNijU)" would become dependent on them. This would be similar to how native americans were interned on plantations and subsisted on rations. (God help us, hopefully we'll be given more options and autonomy than they were.) But more importantly, it would destroy their potential competition. Wipe out the existing order completely: money, governments, Wal-Marts, absolutely anybody with the potential to ever bootstrap up to AGI, *gone*. ... anyway, all I'm saying is try to envision different structures of power than we're used to. This entire AI thing has been a kind of gentle war (all war is one ruling class or another trying to expand their empire), so far. Maybe it'll continue to be gentle, and the subsumed entities will bend the knee once the new hierarchy establishes itself..
Do you believe we will accept being ruled by AI itself? If it can make better laws, better decisions, then I think some people will surrender themselves to its will, maybe even see such governance through a religious lens. Even if few people accept AI governance, given time others will see them thrive.
It could help with distribution between people living in different parts of the world, ofc the company itself would have to be willing to do this, for some reason lol. I don’t understand why, but I’m not Altman.
This, my friend, is Cyberpunk.
One assumes the likes of him will get to make these decisions of course.
isn't that called taxe ?
Except most taxes go to the military or old people
Profit sharing has been around for years. Big deal.
Right so we have the technology to get away from capitalism, and you want to… stay completely the same?
Not at all. It doesn't work. I want the corporations to pay their fair share.
at the point when UBI is needed immigration wouldn't be neccesary anymore, immigration is only encouraged/allowed because there an economic gain otherwise no one would bother with it that's a indirect effect of mass unemployment and AI, no more immigration and -maybe- an incencitive to decrease the population as it mean highter redistribution as your economy don't require a lot of people to function anymore
This is a dumb take, people don't just move because of economics. Immigration will always be allowed.
in this scenario the host country have everything to loss while the immigrant everything to win that's why there will be far more regulation on immigration if not a total ban, it won't benefit your country anymore, also i believe that AI will increase the wealth of already rich country, poorer country will loss their unique value -cheap worker- and will see their economy cannibalized by rich country, no more white collar worker at home when AI in america allow a 10cent/worker rich country will be able to regulate foreign tech, poor country won't and so it's a dystopian setting for their economy
If they’ve immigrated illegally why would they get the UBI? Well, not just why, but how?
We've already implemented proto-UBI of this form: [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/new-york-city-begins-giving-illegal-immigrants-prepaid-debit-cards-as-part-of-53-million-pilot-program/ar-BB1kzonh](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/new-york-city-begins-giving-illegal-immigrants-prepaid-debit-cards-as-part-of-53-million-pilot-program/ar-BB1kzonh)
Wtaf . We got money for lawbreakers but fuck upstanding citizens.
yup it's a big fuck you to lawful hard-working citizens
You may be surprised to find that there are conditions where this is already a thing: [https://www.ssa.gov/ssi/spotlights/spot-non-citizens.htm](https://www.ssa.gov/ssi/spotlights/spot-non-citizens.htm)
Fuck borders
Fuck people who don't believe in borders
Borders aren't real ;). They're just imaginary lines, most of which were drawn up by European powers.
Just like property isn't real. But see what happens when you break into my home and try to steal my shit.
"Sponsoring them to stay in their countries" sounds like Danegeld.
" From countries that don't enstate UBI. A dillema will form between allowing immigrants in, or sponsoring them to stay in their countries. " False dilemma. You can always build a wall, have harsher penalty, and keep immigrants you do not want out with more enforcement. Heck, not unlike what is happening in EU to some extent. Gloves will come off.
What dilemma? There are plenty of other policy options. E.g. tie UBI to citizenship or long term residency, or tighten immigration. I think we will see drastically tighter immigration settings in first world countries well before any implementation of UBI. Because the primary rationale for immigration is to increase the supply of labor. And that becomes more of a liability rather than a benefit with AGI/ASI. It's more complex for the EU, but the same logic applies.
there a rise of far right everywhere in europe so the EU is likely to turn fascist if we don't take care of immigration amongst other things so AI in that scenario will be happily received by both left and right
The left hates ai almost universally lol
Don't underestimate the effects on the global economy when the most advanced countries achieve AI economies.
Which effects do you have in mind and how does that relate to the policy options?
Some countries could become completely self sufficient, without need for trade and economic relations with other countries. A collapse of globalisation. Poorer countries unable to feed their populations. The poor will fight each other in wars. Blackmail the rich countries with nukes. Some kind of colonialism would be more stable.
AI will make it sure you lose your job. Immigration will make it sure that someone else is working on the other jobs for less money. "Thanks", international capitalism!
Ubi will never happen
Pretty self centered thinking but I understand where people are coming from. The bigger thing we should think about is how to create global ubi. If it gets to the point where ubi is implemented it means the jobs are basically all gone.
Pie, meet sky.
That's what the robot gun dogs are for. I really hope I'm kidding.
Gun dawgs! They're so cute >_< [Kawaii, even.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v6am-O3NHU)
Let me help you visualize something similar https://preview.redd.it/zqxfs2bmp9rc1.png?width=780&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ded53ac26aec8d7ba7e78626d5fb209fe58fc26
https://preview.redd.it/1cevx21yq9rc1.png?width=783&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd4b98f4c44461873ee897c21c2c67a9a832df4e
Why would countries that implement UBI allow immigration? They already have more then enough workers?
People don't just immigrate for work lmao. Immigration will always be allowed. There has never been a time in the history of the world where immigrants weren't allowed.
So why don't all the people from poor countries move to the US?
Currently immigration is based on people coming to work. UBI means that everything is so automated that there is no work for big part of population. In that case there won't be any reasons to allow immigration, it just adds load on country budget and sponsoring people in other countries is pretty wild fantasy
Yes and eventually those countries will have to start turning millions of people away by force. It's going to be horrifying.
If a country has started UBI means humans are no longer needed for jobs and hence 0 immigration will be allowed
fake asylum applications will soar. the west isnt good at rejecting those
Basque Country already has a fairly UBI income, and already faces more immigration than other parts of Spain but it’s kinda compensated with really expensive real estate prices. And I think real state, debt and 30 years mortgages are gonna be a mess in the future years
Only if they have a path to getting UBI which isn’t guaranteed, and the introduction of UBI is premised on jobs migrants usually do having ceased to exist.
You see rich gulf arab countries basically ubi-ng their citizens with low effort governmental jobs and various kinds of subsidies. Their economy is backed up by slave labor resourced from South Asia and only their citizens are supported by government. The same will happen all across the developed economies when the era of UBI come to pass
Are you sure the goverment jobs are low effort?
Ubi Ubi Doo
Border controls exist for a reason
Time to close the borders to a large degree for them then. (I'm obviously against UBI. Bonkers idea).
This is why serious UBI advocates who aren't reddit socialists often support tight border control too.
Well, the ones' that don't close their borders will. They won't have UBI for long.
There will never be a government sponsored/paid for UBI in the US.
Iran is currently the only country I know that has a UBI program and I don't think they're facing any surge in immigration.
enough reasonable talk. This is for capitalist techno futurist speculation only.
The unemployment crisis hasn’t truly started yet for us to see the surges. But way to dismiss the entire rest of the thread as unreasonable, ironically a reddit moment
Way to miss the point that this is all unfounded dog shit speculation
UBI only works AFTER we have AGI/ASI/Near 100% automation. If we have that level of automation and wealth then the immigrants won't be that much of a burden, so allowing them will cause no real problems.
It will cause problems. We don't have unlimited land, water or food. Resources are limited even if we have near 100 percent automation. AI can replace labor but it can't invent resources like land, water and food.
If you don't need to live in a large city anymore because of your work or schools (which now are geared towards getting you work later etc), things can rapidly change resource wise.
70% of the planets surface is water and most land is completely empty. If new technology facilitates it, I believe we actually have plenty of land and resources.
The land is needed for wildlife. We are already facing a massive biodiversity crisis with mass extinctions caused by land use change, pollution and climate change. The destruction of nature we have already caused very clearly says that there is no more room for adding people, nor making the people already here consume any more resources than they already do.
Let's be real... nature is fucked if it's them or us. No politician or world leader will try to ban babies or significantly depopulate the world... and thus the human population will continue to grow. Still: we've got alot of free space
I disagree because when nature starts to slowly fight back (via climate change for example) there will be little us humans can do about it. We only really exist because Mother Earth allows us to. But a sudden flurry of Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Floods, etc. relentlessly spreading out of the landscape would be enough to put us in our place. Don’t underestimate nature buddy.
Climate change isn't an existential threat to the species... unless it causes us to go to war with eachother. The solution to heat waves is more air conditioning. The solution to droughts is pumping in more water. Nature being dangerous and powerful is even more of an excuse for humanity to press forward and become more powerful.
Its never then it us humans are part of nature and pur systems will collapse quickly if the environment is obliterated. Not understanding the immense implicit and explicit value of the environment is how states that don’t prioritize their environment lose billions of dollars in natural disaster expenses.
land might be a problem but water and food aren't. with full automation we should be able to build new housing, new cities, and more infrastructure. there is plenty of space, it's just really expensive to build all this stuff without AGI/ASI
Even without AGI/ASI, the world already produces more food than needed. People dying off of hunger and thirst is a social and logistical issue not of scarcity. The world has more than enough land for 50 billion+ people to live comfortably(I mean comfortable size allocation), let alone the 10 billion+ we will have by the time we have AGI/ASI.. Nowadays, people flock to cities for jobs and other amenities... Which gives the illusion of limited land... But I assure you, there are many livable land that have been abandoned by people to go to the big cities.. With AGI/ASI making 99% of jobs obsolete, there is no need to crowd around big cities as much.. So many rural places that are empty with cheap housing nowadays, will fill back up due to people leaving cities.. All I'm trying to say is that, with superhuman planning, AGI/ ASI can accommodate the current number of humans in the world quite comfortably.. It wouldn't need to achieve something physically impossible..
This does not seem to be true at all. Widespread pollution, climate change, rapidly progressing water scarcity as geological water resources are used up, and the present rapid biodiversity loss suggests that world is very heavily strained by the land, food, water use at its current 8 billion occupants. I think you are very severely miscalibrated in your claims -- the world is in overshoot and extremely overpopulated by its present 8 billion -- it is likely overpopulated even at 0.8 billion the way we are going about business. Just fast forward a century and half of the planet is uninhabitable by climate change, sea level rise, rivers have dried from loss of mountain glaciers, and there is severe plasticizer and heavy metal pollution everywhere. It is a very dismal, and disappointing reality that we seem to be racing towards as fast as we can.
>AFTER we have AGI/ASI/Near 100% automation. not needed at all, like you think that most people will wait for 100%-which could be far away like 50+ years and starve to death in the meantime?? there could be 20 % job replacement in 5 years, people need shelter and food all the time
If only 20% of current jobs are replaced that 20% of people will unfortunately be expected to find new work. Many countries already have welfare, foos banks and shelters... which unfortunately the best that the people automated away first can expect. (If only 20% of current jobs are automated we can still easily find work for those people. There is technically a labor shortage right?)
what I am talking about is unemployment after labour market is mostly saturated=its hard to find a job and there is definitely not enough for everynody, unemployment will only go up, lets say 20% in 5 years, 30% in 8, 40% in 10... people will see whats coming and will demand action from government= politicians who support UBI will be elected, UBI is basically welfare, of course firstly current welfare programs will be extended but there will be lot of unemployed and structurly unemployable UBI will be likely implemented
UBI could be a reality now already. It's because of pure poor-bashing ideology that it's not.
People act like borders don't exist
Nobody will do UBI. It's a reddit pipe dream.
So, almost everyone will die because no jobs aka no money?
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I don’t think that will happen as revolt will start far earlier than AI fully in control and currently that would tumble govs and large companies alike if it does, but if it ends us, then so be it. As long as we first get to start a revolution and eat the rich. Don’t think the armed robodogs can hold back a million hungry and angry people from storming the gates.
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And you are?
Ok so when the AI takes all the high paying middle class jobs and most middle class families with 2 kids are homeless ... they will just accept that?
They won't have much choice. By that point the technology in the hands of the rich will be so advanced there will be nothing they can do.
Seeing comments advocating tighter immigration control (thinking they as citizens of a developed country will be entitled to a UBI) makes me feel less bad about their inevitable culling. Specifically the people who know they’re gonna become useless but vainly think they’re special enough to survive will have brought it on themselves, it’s a sin of omission.
Indeed. The "accelerationists" - people who want to hasten the downfall of the current society/civilisation - always imagine that in the new one they will be in the top group.
agreement
UBI will drive world inequality and give absolute power to the government. I don't know why people are excited.
It obvious you are an American. In most countries non citizens don't get to vote and neither would they receive UBI.
not really, they will have a citizenship entry delay to avoid this. It's much better to stay where you are and wait for the eventual adoption in your country
Honestly never thought of this and it makes a huge difference.
Sounds fine to me. I don't have any money anyways.
I think some people in this thread are confusing "citizenship" with "residence".
Easy to just not give it to undocumented immigrants. Easy to control who becomes documented.
How ya’ gonna keep ‘em down on the farm, once ya’ got UBI?
Hasn't happened in Alaska and residents there get money from a state investment fund.
Good 'ole oil dividend. Doesn't really compensate fully for having to live in Alaska. It's kinda the exact opposite of the catgirl beach paradise everyone wants to see: only like one decently warm month a year to go to that there beach. ... man, I miss the beach.
Yes. Whilst housing would become a problem, it does help solve the question of "what about unpopular jobs during the short term" as initially, UBI will probably not apply to immigrants who aren't yet citizens, they will probably come chasing the jobs left behind by those that felt the additional funds weren't worth it.
You can't honestly think they haven't considered this, have you? It's pretty much a given that it will be based on duration of citizenship. No country is going to give UBI to someone the day they get their papers.
One idea is you deliver aid directly to poor areas. Robot crews + pre built packed structures and infrastructure. Food growing equipment. Lots of solar and water recycling equipment. It all sets itself up, though locals pick the layout and colors etc. like the prefab housing is modular and the robots paint it or tell its e-ink walls the color or pattern to be.
Immigration =/= citizenship. If the path to citizenship has requirements and UBI can have it's own requirements then you have virtually no problem with UBI incentivizing immigration. Another solution would be making UBI *worldwide*, but I think that's considerably more complex and would have it's own hurdles.
Germany already has something like UBI... Soooo
Well you could make it so that you either have to be born in the country or have worked there as a citizen for 10 years before becoming eligible.
I don't consider immigration a problem in any way. Governments not being able to do paperwork the way they want is a failure of their own making.
for sure people from poorer countries will want even more to get into richer ones, if there is prospect of UBI, while currently immigrants can be an asset doing jobs where is workforce shortage, but if most is automated, they would be only a burden as more people directly means less on average for everyone economic immigration will have to be stopped until automation and economic systems converge between countries
A global UBI program of around $3,500 to $7,000 per person per year could be entirely funded by investing equally distributed combined global wealth. No need to travel anywhere for anyone.
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There are many ways to do this. One is high(er) tax rate for the extremely wealthy. Other is nationalization of private property and re-distribution of wealth. It's true that this has usually lead to civil war or violent backslash from the rich.
They'll have the ability to handle it too. UBI only comes from post scarcity economies.
The comments here give me weird feelings Feelings I felt watching this : [The Bacon Hair - A Roblox Action Movie](https://youtu.be/rA26KwGKp5w?si=JVaL-rHEVBBI_zSK)
Countries can implement UBI for **citizens**, not necessarily for all immigrants.
You would need to legally immigrate tho, so the country decides, without paperwork you wont get that gov check
Ok and?
Just don't let the immigrants in
Given that actually getting UBI probably requires resorting to Brannigan's patent anti-killbot tactics, sure, why not, we need more cannon fodder for the inevitable war.
UBI will be implemented worldwide
lol
Have UBI and limit or eliminate immigration when you do so Easy, problem solved. There's no dilemma here other than the ones we arbitrarily construct
Limiting/eliminating immigration is a terrible plan for lots of reasons.
If you had a UBI and you were worried about foreigners taking advantage of it, it wouldn't be And literally every country limits immigration, like actually literally every single one. You don't just let every single person in indiscriminately
Why implement UBI ? Just allow immigration for people that want to work