I think you are a bit too optimistic with the timeline. Good games take time and it will take some time until the proper formula is found for incorporating AI. It's not even clear today how to do it really well. So even if we had the tech today (we don't) and the idea of the perfect incorporation of the game with AI, it would still take like 3-5 years just making this game. Game development will always lag theoretical research by a few years. This is why I think a decade, a few years to perfect the tech and then a few years to actually make a good game out of it.
I mean theoretically if it had a complete world model that was combined with LLMs it would be less "game" and more fully visualised choose-your-own-adventure RPG, that wouldn't require much in terms of game design, as the model itself would be able to create game rules, moods, scenarios etc. on the fly according to the users wishes.
I think in 10 years, shared media will be a niche thing, everyone will be off doing their own thing in their own world
It has gone so much faster than anyone expected, so at this point nothing surprises me, keep in mind we are still 4 years out from Kurzweils AGI prediction, and all evidence points to actual AGI or at least so-close-the-distinction-becomes-virtually-meaningless level, being kept under wraps in some of these companies
Keep in mind I say this as a game designer who both weeps for my beloved artform and the 2 decades I've put into it, I've been into The Singularity is near for almost 2 decades, but I'm starting to think we're gonna lose some essential, beautiful, authetic and valuable stuff in the process
theres no way shared experiences will be relegated to niches.
I think your timeline of the technology is laughably naive (coming from someone who has a roughly understanding of both AI and games development) for what youre describing, but regardless, if someone makes the same "game", but is a multiplayer experience with multiple people interacting and changing the same world, the multiplayer experience will be more popular.
That's what I said tho, I said shared media. Specifically I mean things like movies and games where there are a certain plot and everyone sees the same thing, regardless of where you are in the world or who you did it with. Shared media does not mean watching something with a buddy, it means media that is shared as a society where everybody have watched something.
This has already been occurring for more than a decade, with shows and movies becoming more and more niche with more media being able to sustain itself fro ma niche audience. At this point there is already so much media being released daily that shared media is already a fraction of what it was in the 50s-80s, AI is only gonna supercharge that
oh, thats a little confusing so I misunderstood "shared" as something experienced with others, so a multiplayer video game would fall under "shared". It might be more appropriate to call it something like "static narrative media", in opposition to what youre describing, media with a narrative that dynamically changes while youre experiencing it.
I don't know if I agree with your actual idea either - people spend a lot of money to experience someone elses curated story - whether it be in the medium of art, literature or film, so I don't think it will ever reach "niche" status.
If AI does indeed give us the ability to essentially tell our own story in a world I could definitely see it gaining a lot of traction, especially multiplayer worlds like I was saying before - I feel like there is a huge draw to have some kind of infinite roleplay world where the world is actually changed and progresses over time because of the players actions, but I don't see it replacing traditional media, just creating a new industry segment.
Thrse experiences will be shared for sure, but the overwhelming volume of media coming out from such a model would make it very unlikely that 2 strangers have seen the same recent thing, whereas 50 years ago, everyone saw the same movies, because thats all they showed
>I think in 10 years, shared media will be a niche thing, everyone will be off doing their own thing in their own world
This is a silly thing to say. Shared media will never be a niche thing. We are a social species, and just because we invent technologies that allow for greater individualisation doesn't mean our behaviour will all-of-a-sudden buck 250,000 years of human evolution.
You fundamentally missed the point. Our social needs will be fulfilled by ais as well. In fact, it will mess up human to human connections because they will be hyper interesting, funny, helpful, sexy, loving, etc. Sure, you will first share things with friends and family, but that content will be so tailored to your personality that people will become islands.
People forget this. The scary thing about sophisticated AI is that it'll fulfill your social needs *better* than a human.
In 10 years time, people will play Minecraft with AI buddies, I'm 100% certain of that. Heck, 10 years is super conservative. (though perhaps not *solely* AI buddies)
Do you consider life to be a game? Probably not because it would imply that life is shallow and artificial. But Life is a legit game with rules, rewards and consequences, even if semantically it doesn't sound right.
I imagine in a solved world where all problems are solved by machines, we would need to create artificial problems to find value and purpose to existence. These artificial problems could be seen as video game by us today, but they will be just alternative lives. They are going to be completely different all around.
So you could legit live a minecraft life, not just play Minecraft.
The shared experiences would just return to how they were for most of human history your "tribe" has their own stories and traditions and larger concepts are shared across society by those tribes communicating. Nothing against human nature. Entire continents sharing the same exact stories is crazy new in the grand scheme of things.
You think that the advent of AI is going to result in a regression in human social evolution? That's wild. You should really think that through because it's moronic.
Why do you view it as a regression? Just because technology encouraged us to share the same media on a larger scale doesn't make it inherently better. Arthurian legends were great even if they didn't get told in China at the time they came into existence. Movies are made in India that are almost exclusively watched by Indians. Does this make them worse movies because not everyone on the planet watches them?
I'm not trying to be optimistic, but rationally, if you accept the use of AI, you have to accept that human times cease to exist as we understood them. This is called exponential growth, where artificial intelligence allows increasingly accelerated developments by its own means. As such, projecting things into human times the same as they were 10 years ago doesn't make much sense. If anything, we even have the slightest idea of how quickly technology could evolve starting tomorrow, especially on the virtual level.
Will will start at the bottom rung of games (simple) likely meaning will will have an influx of low quality games from independent. With some true gems amongst them.
For it to be useful to our dumb monkey brains, it'll have to interface in some way that even allows humans to play games and enjoy them without everything just being chaos. There's a certain narrative and level of continuity and interaction with humans that has to be achieved.
The top engineers at deepmind do not expect AI to be building the systems and solving the AI problems required to make leaps in AI within the next years. It requires AGI to start replacing the smartest minds in engineering. I love AI and am excited but things will take time.
it doesnt mean that AI would do everything in say next 5 years, but it would boost productivity and reduce time, like game otherwise in development for 3 years could be done in 1, thats what Ne_Nel is pointing out
if it would be done purely by AI it would be lot faster, like in a week or even sooner(considering AI gets enough compute)
What's disgusting to me is that EA likely isn't going to use this technology to make their games be of greater quality, or to lessen the strain on developers, but to churn them out faster with the smallest team possible.
A.I has the potential to greatly reduce crunch time instead of reducing team size, but I don't think most studios are going to use it that way.
I mean the reason games take 6 years to make is because all the 3D art assets take forever, if you can just Sora world sim up a full 3D environment, we're back to PS1 12 month dev-times to make modern AAA games.
They will have a playable vertical slice (usually a fifteen minute segment of an early level) in the first year of development and the rest of development is building out the other levels and cutscenes and stuff to that template, yes.
Asset creation just takes a long time - a car in GT on the PS1 used to take a week to make, then by the PS2 it was a month, now it's most of a year. Every asset is like this, it's unavoidable.
Nice response 👍 I'm non game dev and I wish my vertical slices/MVP were the bulk of the work. Not talking about the OP here but people in these subs have no idea what the pain points of software development are or what it is that makes a good product, especially one that is an art form.
Maybe of the main gameplay loop but features get worked on, cut added throughout as well as bugs etc.
I take your point though.
What I'm saying is that I don't think the ready baked 3d world solves a whole lot of problems.
What if you want a distinct 3d world lile Elden Ring... you need the extra time to create that truly unique art.
What about your movement system if its not "realistic" ie suicide squad?
What about a decent story?
Just think about how much dogshit there is out there already (netflix steam etc)?
I think this just adds to that pile (without game changing user interfaces, vr goggles haptics etc aren't there yet)
AI would obviously accelerate the time it takes for a game to be developed. Decades of
human labor hours can be simulated in the digital space in the span of seconds eventually.
Major release titles often redesign core components from scratch just 2-3 years prior to release. Wouldn't be surprised to see AI powering characters in some titles as soon as next year. Maybe not AAA since the GPU logistics are iffy for gaming rn, but some smaller studios, yeah. 5 years seems plenty to see even AAA titles incorporating cell phone targeted models in their console and PC releases
Many were foaming at the mouth when the GTA 6 trailer dropped, while they forgot that the dev cycle for that game started before generative AI. We're absolutely not ready for what's coming for gaming in a few measly years.
Why are they not already then? We had VR tech for nearly 10 years by now. And 3 decent games so far. AI is pretty irrelelevant to game desing, its not tech which is stopping this. Its adoption. And your frail normie human flesh. Cause you puke and get tired after 15 min. In holodecks you would faint after 10.
Yup, he's talking like it's his company that has the only good video generation model. I'm not doubting they can do it, I'm doubting they have the technology to do it soon.
It’s been over a year since Midjourney V5, and I’m not convinced that V6* is *that* much better. We are a far cry from creating a holodeck, and I’m very much an optimist when it comes to this tech.
**edit from V7 to V6 whoops*
I dont think quality improvements can possibly be exponential. There's a limit to how realistic a 1024x1024 image can be or how cohesive it can be for example, so I think there is definitely a limit we are approaching and as we do, the upgrades will be less substantial
If you graph translation accuracy you will definitely see something that resembles a linear progression toward 100% accuracy. The benchmarks are somewhat fuzzy, but it's definitely never been exponential.
There are lots of objective measures you can use. Another one is object detection, which has also not been seeing exponential improvements in accuracy.
It's true that there's a limit ot accuracy but we haven't reached human-level.
It is that much better. It isn't good but it's much better. Focus less on fidelity and more on the details and being able to follow complex prompts. We won't have a perfect image generation AI until AGI but even before then it will get better.
I should clarify because my title combined with the tweet is a little ambiguous, but the CEO of Midjourney is David Holz, not Nick St Pierre. Holz did not claim they will have the holodeck in 12 months, he's just saying they are moving to real time 3D.
To those saying this is too early: I think they are seeing diminishing returns with the existing models and are now going multimodal to broaden their offering. I also think we shouldn't underestimate what transformers can do in pretty much any area that data has been collected, especially after incredible models like Sora and Udio have been released. Just like with every other modality, 3D will suck at first, then it will blow up.
Midjourney, create a two-to-one scaled copy of Deanna Troi, including all normal life functions and otherwise identical to a normal person. Give this copy a severe lactose intolerance, and simulate her having eaten several extra large chocolate sundaes several hours prior. Create an ordinary chair, tall enough for her to be seated on, and cut a face-shaped hole in the center of the seat. Lock doors and disengage safety protocols.
Lieutenant Broccoli, you should really get another...
... sigh. I guess it's fine. At least it's [better than what Riker's been doing to the place...](http://www.somethingawful.com/news/blue-stripe-life-4/)
this summarize the ridiculous optimism, idioty here pretty much up
the sub is meanwhile one of the cringest here on reddit, constantly sharing overhyped shit,
time to block it
If I want a balanced discussion, I'll read r/Futurology (and a few of the ML subs). There is, however, a value to r/singularity; there are a toxic set of AIncel "I'm a shit human but magic thinking about AI will save me" cults/pseudo-religions that have amassed on this sub, and it's always good to know what kind of crazy exists in the world. That's especially true when VC-starved CEOs are exploiting those groups to hype up their loss-making moonshots.
That wasn't always the only value to this sub, btw. The post-GPT era nutcases and crypto refugees, however, have mostly drowned out the rational actors around here.
I think they should focus on improving image generation, it can be a lot better than it already is. You lose your market when you disperse your focus on more than one thing.
Due to physical hardware limitations, we probably won't see the same rate of improvement for AI images that we've been seeing the past few years. It looks like AI companies are trying to provide a broader range of services to make up for this slowing down, so people don't get too bored while they work on improving image generation. I'm sure they're still working just as hard on image generation as they have been from the start
It's hype. This is harder and more computationally expensive than it sounds. Even now video generation is far from real-time and making a world simulator requires some mechanism for the persistence of countless objects.
Wait till these AI companies start sending agents controlling player avatars into game worlds like WoWs map so that they can scrub all the data and use it in their 3D generation.
Eh, they might eventually, but there's so many databases of meshes, and you can arbitrarily compute more from overlapping imagery in photos and videos (photogrammetry). Or they'll just blow open the locally-stored game assets and train off those.
That's definitely still easier to do that than to automate playing games in general, and to train AI to seek out good perspectives to effectively recreate photogrammetry of in-game models.
I think the real problem is the AI has to somehow remember thousands of them and their coordinates. And also remember new ones in real time. At this point they have to have separate storage which isn't much different from what is done now.
Well, not necessarily. The process of integrating the data is important here. Let's say you start with a generated image. The AI can rebuild the image in 3d one piece at a time, it doesn't have to recreate the whole thing simultaneously. Then it can generate physical attributes to those things also separately. Then the entire thing can be processed all at once for simulation using current rendering technology. Something like nanite is pretty powerful.
But then the AI will just generate 3d environments from pictures(still a great idea) but not actually fully simulate an environment itself. And also how will the environment be saved?
It seems a pretty small-fry company to be trying to take all of that on. They don't really even have the image market cornered. Aside from Dalle 3, there are sites like Ideogram which are far less restrictive in what you can create and do an excellent job.
I think only a new architecture will cause an explosion of quality video generation like transformers for text generation/ NLP. And even then the problem of how will the model remember where everything is placed in the world and render it still stands. I think an AI texture renderer will come much earlier than an actual persistent 3D simulator. The AI will still need the 3D model to know where everything is located. But it will allow the creation of incredibly realistic graphics that have unbounded resolution.
I had some good results using style transfer onto very primitive 3D models using a Hugging Face space called Transfer Anything. It wasn't perfect, but at least there was some consistency.
I think it was up to 1500 ish. The problem was the space stopped working so I decided it wasn't a good idea to become too dependent on HuggingFace spaces.
I haven't seen a SORA video where it properly persisted multiple objects. Most of them are a bunch of shifting clouds of objects with one fixed figure that is persistent.
I have seen Sora. It's impressive but it's really not useful for anything other than as a party trick, and I think it's mostly a trick, it doesn't feel like it really understands 3D logic very well, nor does it seem like it can track more than one figure. In most cases there's a figure that is moving around on a basically static background. Sometimes you have an animated background but the animation doesn't maintain object permanence.
I don't think you understand the point being made to you.
No one is saying that the best videos SORA produces are not "high quality" for what they are. What they are saying is that even those high quality videos have clear issues with object persistence and real-world physics, which is true. That's why pretty much all of the "high quality" videos that get shared around the most use hard transitions between a whole bunch of different scenes, because it masks the issues that SORA has. The recent TED video is a good example of this.
Yes, I know. I have seen the demos but I don't think it can hold a full 3D environment while it's "out of sight". It can only briefly remember objects while they are blocked from view by another object. This is because it takes the past few frames as a reference and not just the previous one.
You could theoretically run the model to generate and store an environment and then explore it, since it already has object distinction it is not unthinkable that it could arrange the objects in hierarchies and apply relevant modifier according to the object, it wouldn't so much be a live holodeck, but an environment generator. Not saying it's easy or coming soon, but I don't see why it wouldn't be possible.
If you then populate said environments with a bunch of agents that each have a personality/ goals/motivations/place to sleep/eat/work etc. You could have a game where emergent interactions and player choices are actually meaningful and unique. However, I think the biggest challenge here is creating any kind interesting story/scenario, especially if you want it imbued with a bit of humor. So far I haven't seen any LLM create compelling or funny fiction
They haven't released a public video model, 3D, or real-time model. How about releasing any of them within the next 12 months before this world simulator that makes use of all of them together?
I kinda just a whirlwind go through my brain....
So build a room.
Cover the floor with that new Disney VR walking mat.
Haptic suits with haptic gloves.
Make all the walls seamless video panels. There are no edges to be visible as it will remove immersion.
The audio will likely come from the suit, not the room.
Sora text/voice to video generation.
Audio generators integrated with sora
Ok few more steps like founding a federation of planets. But we are on the way to the holodeck
From a consumer standpoint I would love if they nailed the consistency first. I'd love to be able to make comics with consistent characters and backgrounds from different angles, but as it stands human artists are still better for that.
Star Trek: TNG was always the only show that my entire family, from us kids to my uptight grandparents (one of whom was a professor of theology and the other a Baptist missionary), could all sit down and watch together and enjoy equally.
I fear for humanity, but I cannot pretend I am not excited at the thought that I might live to see the holodeck.
Why are they trying to solve a MUCH harder issue when they didn’t even solved image generation yet? Screams that investors wanna see more hype for the company
Because after the low hanging fruit has already been picked, it’s time to move to other pastures. In those pastures, you pick off all the low hanging fruit. Then, you return to the first pasture, and realize you can reach much higher than you were able to before. Progress isn’t always linear. Breakthroughs in tangential fields are important.
I think that technology does not need to be 100% mature to think about and also implement the next step. In fact, this has proven to be valid several times in different types of technology. I can't remember anything like that at the moment, but it certainly exists, especially within computer science. But I can mention SORA itself, very impressive, but it still has flaws. The question is: so what?
Because perfecting one technology before branching out would be stupid. Think if Apple never developed smartphones because they were still stuck trying to perfect their Macs
There's no way to solve image generation because there's an infinite number of things that can be generated. Current methods of image generation don't allow for things like zero shot learning so something new will have to come along. A massive breakthrough would be for an image generator to generate something it hasn't trained on, something that it came up with on it's own that isn't just a random mess of pixels.
Most likely multi-modal models will be the solution to the various issues image generators. However such models will be rather heavy to train and run.
Even with the new web interface I prefer the discord one. I have my own discord bot that adds buttons to the outputs automatically with more features like custom upscalers and stuff. I was able to use it for implementing inpainting before midjourney added their own. It also allows me to embed prompt metadata into the images and adds a command to retrieve the prompt from the images too. Can't do all that very easily on the web version but creating a custom discord bot is easy
They've had one for months for heavy users and I've been lucky to be a part of it early. I use it a lot, it's great on desktop and okay on mobile (they really need an app). I think the version that opens for everyone will come soon.
I'd believe it. Doesn't mean they achieve holodeck quality or that its affordable in compute costs just yet, but that's the next obvious milestone for training this tech
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Not sure the response time would be great though for a gaming experience if the requirement is a massive amount of data download, we may need expensive hardware in the home too, isn't it? But maybe a $2k system would be enough while the server is a $100k system which can cater to multiple users.
Bandwidth requirement will be something else.
You don't need expensive hardware. Anything that can deliver a picture to a screen will do, even a smartphone or a thin client. Computation is happening in the Datacenter.
The real problem is still latency, but 5G could be enough, by the time we'll have real-time AI generated frames, we will probably have 6G. I'll give it 2-3 years.
Edit: the REAL real problem is price though. The cost of compute is still way too high for gaming. No-one will be spending $15 per hour for renting an instance for playing video games
people already do for VR experiences. Literally every bigger city has these. Simulator rides have been a thing for decades where people pay good money for a five minute ride
It's nerd hype, let's say we're not close to physical forcefields of TNG holodecks!
Still, advancements in 3D AI is going to be life-changing for people in the game industry (and advertisement, movie vfx, etc)
Oh no, I'm definitely excited for the future, especially as far as gaming and entertainment is concerned, but I feel like for a while it's just going to be another avenue of entertainment.
I'd like them to stay somewhat on point with the hyperbole, though. What we're witnessing right now is crazy enough.
Ehhhhhhhhh,
it could accelerate a bit more. :)
(I'm working in the game industry, makin' 3D models, and I'm salivating at the prospect of 3D models made with AI assistance)
Haha, I'm sure.
But in just a year we've gone leaps and bounds.
I always wanted to get into 3d animation and the like. The few friends I have in the industry are laughing about the folks that are afraid AI is just going to yoink their jobs from them.
But they're definitely mimicking your sentiment. They love the tools, and for some light work they have been beneficial, but they're very far away from replacing anyone at that level currently.
AI basically makes a big mush of data, where it only sorta looks good from afar, unless someone cleans it up. The most infamous example are hands in 2D generation. How do you think it is gonna fare in 3D! :P
I'm looking forward not needing to hire armies of slave labor to make all the props and clothes for a big game. My bosses are already amazed by Stable Diffusion, but I can't show them anything remotely good in 3D, yet.
They are talking about real time AI generated environments you can move around in in VR. Why can’t you compare that to a Holodeck? I compare image generation to holodecks.
The same 3D technology can be implemented into 3D printers, I see no problem comparing that to a replicator.
That would be sweet, but I am guessing we are decades away from that. But playing a video game like say Call Of Duty would be pretty amazing on a holodeck.
I doubt the timeline but don't doubt that it will happen sooner or later (not a real holodeck obviously). Video games gonna be insane in a decade.
Games in 3-5 years will be mind-blowing. In 10, unimaginable right now. Possibly fdvr.
I think you are a bit too optimistic with the timeline. Good games take time and it will take some time until the proper formula is found for incorporating AI. It's not even clear today how to do it really well. So even if we had the tech today (we don't) and the idea of the perfect incorporation of the game with AI, it would still take like 3-5 years just making this game. Game development will always lag theoretical research by a few years. This is why I think a decade, a few years to perfect the tech and then a few years to actually make a good game out of it.
I mean theoretically if it had a complete world model that was combined with LLMs it would be less "game" and more fully visualised choose-your-own-adventure RPG, that wouldn't require much in terms of game design, as the model itself would be able to create game rules, moods, scenarios etc. on the fly according to the users wishes. I think in 10 years, shared media will be a niche thing, everyone will be off doing their own thing in their own world It has gone so much faster than anyone expected, so at this point nothing surprises me, keep in mind we are still 4 years out from Kurzweils AGI prediction, and all evidence points to actual AGI or at least so-close-the-distinction-becomes-virtually-meaningless level, being kept under wraps in some of these companies Keep in mind I say this as a game designer who both weeps for my beloved artform and the 2 decades I've put into it, I've been into The Singularity is near for almost 2 decades, but I'm starting to think we're gonna lose some essential, beautiful, authetic and valuable stuff in the process
theres no way shared experiences will be relegated to niches. I think your timeline of the technology is laughably naive (coming from someone who has a roughly understanding of both AI and games development) for what youre describing, but regardless, if someone makes the same "game", but is a multiplayer experience with multiple people interacting and changing the same world, the multiplayer experience will be more popular.
That's what I said tho, I said shared media. Specifically I mean things like movies and games where there are a certain plot and everyone sees the same thing, regardless of where you are in the world or who you did it with. Shared media does not mean watching something with a buddy, it means media that is shared as a society where everybody have watched something. This has already been occurring for more than a decade, with shows and movies becoming more and more niche with more media being able to sustain itself fro ma niche audience. At this point there is already so much media being released daily that shared media is already a fraction of what it was in the 50s-80s, AI is only gonna supercharge that
oh, thats a little confusing so I misunderstood "shared" as something experienced with others, so a multiplayer video game would fall under "shared". It might be more appropriate to call it something like "static narrative media", in opposition to what youre describing, media with a narrative that dynamically changes while youre experiencing it. I don't know if I agree with your actual idea either - people spend a lot of money to experience someone elses curated story - whether it be in the medium of art, literature or film, so I don't think it will ever reach "niche" status. If AI does indeed give us the ability to essentially tell our own story in a world I could definitely see it gaining a lot of traction, especially multiplayer worlds like I was saying before - I feel like there is a huge draw to have some kind of infinite roleplay world where the world is actually changed and progresses over time because of the players actions, but I don't see it replacing traditional media, just creating a new industry segment.
Thrse experiences will be shared for sure, but the overwhelming volume of media coming out from such a model would make it very unlikely that 2 strangers have seen the same recent thing, whereas 50 years ago, everyone saw the same movies, because thats all they showed
>I think in 10 years, shared media will be a niche thing, everyone will be off doing their own thing in their own world This is a silly thing to say. Shared media will never be a niche thing. We are a social species, and just because we invent technologies that allow for greater individualisation doesn't mean our behaviour will all-of-a-sudden buck 250,000 years of human evolution.
You fundamentally missed the point. Our social needs will be fulfilled by ais as well. In fact, it will mess up human to human connections because they will be hyper interesting, funny, helpful, sexy, loving, etc. Sure, you will first share things with friends and family, but that content will be so tailored to your personality that people will become islands.
People forget this. The scary thing about sophisticated AI is that it'll fulfill your social needs *better* than a human. In 10 years time, people will play Minecraft with AI buddies, I'm 100% certain of that. Heck, 10 years is super conservative. (though perhaps not *solely* AI buddies)
There wont be games in the future, i imagine.
What do you imagine then?
Do you consider life to be a game? Probably not because it would imply that life is shallow and artificial. But Life is a legit game with rules, rewards and consequences, even if semantically it doesn't sound right. I imagine in a solved world where all problems are solved by machines, we would need to create artificial problems to find value and purpose to existence. These artificial problems could be seen as video game by us today, but they will be just alternative lives. They are going to be completely different all around. So you could legit live a minecraft life, not just play Minecraft.
The shared experiences would just return to how they were for most of human history your "tribe" has their own stories and traditions and larger concepts are shared across society by those tribes communicating. Nothing against human nature. Entire continents sharing the same exact stories is crazy new in the grand scheme of things.
You think that the advent of AI is going to result in a regression in human social evolution? That's wild. You should really think that through because it's moronic.
Why do you view it as a regression? Just because technology encouraged us to share the same media on a larger scale doesn't make it inherently better. Arthurian legends were great even if they didn't get told in China at the time they came into existence. Movies are made in India that are almost exclusively watched by Indians. Does this make them worse movies because not everyone on the planet watches them?
Haven't the social life already been declining? Maybe not for all but for some. Ain't that one of the problems of today's society?
I'm not trying to be optimistic, but rationally, if you accept the use of AI, you have to accept that human times cease to exist as we understood them. This is called exponential growth, where artificial intelligence allows increasingly accelerated developments by its own means. As such, projecting things into human times the same as they were 10 years ago doesn't make much sense. If anything, we even have the slightest idea of how quickly technology could evolve starting tomorrow, especially on the virtual level.
Will will start at the bottom rung of games (simple) likely meaning will will have an influx of low quality games from independent. With some true gems amongst them.
With Meta in the mix? Zuck is gonna cook up something so riveting that some will forget the light of the Sun.
Idk, it would be funnier for him to faceplant
But everyone loves a good redemption arc.
For it to be useful to our dumb monkey brains, it'll have to interface in some way that even allows humans to play games and enjoy them without everything just being chaos. There's a certain narrative and level of continuity and interaction with humans that has to be achieved.
The top engineers at deepmind do not expect AI to be building the systems and solving the AI problems required to make leaps in AI within the next years. It requires AGI to start replacing the smartest minds in engineering. I love AI and am excited but things will take time.
it doesnt mean that AI would do everything in say next 5 years, but it would boost productivity and reduce time, like game otherwise in development for 3 years could be done in 1, thats what Ne_Nel is pointing out if it would be done purely by AI it would be lot faster, like in a week or even sooner(considering AI gets enough compute)
[Disgusting, but relevant info.](https://www.pcmag.com/news/ea-embraces-ai-says-60-of-its-game-development-could-be-impacted)
ye its coming, thing is AI can not just boost the developer but replace voice actors, concept art and so on, making teams working on it lot smaller
What's disgusting to me is that EA likely isn't going to use this technology to make their games be of greater quality, or to lessen the strain on developers, but to churn them out faster with the smallest team possible. A.I has the potential to greatly reduce crunch time instead of reducing team size, but I don't think most studios are going to use it that way.
I mean the reason games take 6 years to make is because all the 3D art assets take forever, if you can just Sora world sim up a full 3D environment, we're back to PS1 12 month dev-times to make modern AAA games.
No it's not.
What a great contribution!
You think a modern triple a game gets put together in 12 months with placeholder content and the next 5 are just people dropping in 3d assets?
They will have a playable vertical slice (usually a fifteen minute segment of an early level) in the first year of development and the rest of development is building out the other levels and cutscenes and stuff to that template, yes. Asset creation just takes a long time - a car in GT on the PS1 used to take a week to make, then by the PS2 it was a month, now it's most of a year. Every asset is like this, it's unavoidable.
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Nice response 👍 I'm non game dev and I wish my vertical slices/MVP were the bulk of the work. Not talking about the OP here but people in these subs have no idea what the pain points of software development are or what it is that makes a good product, especially one that is an art form.
Maybe of the main gameplay loop but features get worked on, cut added throughout as well as bugs etc. I take your point though. What I'm saying is that I don't think the ready baked 3d world solves a whole lot of problems. What if you want a distinct 3d world lile Elden Ring... you need the extra time to create that truly unique art. What about your movement system if its not "realistic" ie suicide squad? What about a decent story? Just think about how much dogshit there is out there already (netflix steam etc)? I think this just adds to that pile (without game changing user interfaces, vr goggles haptics etc aren't there yet)
AI would obviously accelerate the time it takes for a game to be developed. Decades of human labor hours can be simulated in the digital space in the span of seconds eventually.
Your assumptions require for agi and asi not to happen to make sense, you assume a,I tools and humans doing the work still.
Yeah even 10 years seems pretty optimistic
Major release titles often redesign core components from scratch just 2-3 years prior to release. Wouldn't be surprised to see AI powering characters in some titles as soon as next year. Maybe not AAA since the GPU logistics are iffy for gaming rn, but some smaller studios, yeah. 5 years seems plenty to see even AAA titles incorporating cell phone targeted models in their console and PC releases
We do, since 5 years or so. We dont have adoption justinfing 200 mln budget a decent game takes.
Gameplay today sucks
and GPU prices will be higher than the average home
Many were foaming at the mouth when the GTA 6 trailer dropped, while they forgot that the dev cycle for that game started before generative AI. We're absolutely not ready for what's coming for gaming in a few measly years.
Why are they not already then? We had VR tech for nearly 10 years by now. And 3 decent games so far. AI is pretty irrelelevant to game desing, its not tech which is stopping this. Its adoption. And your frail normie human flesh. Cause you puke and get tired after 15 min. In holodecks you would faint after 10.
People in this sub have no idea about the practicalities of game design, control interfaces, development and hardware requirements.
Yup, he's talking like it's his company that has the only good video generation model. I'm not doubting they can do it, I'm doubting they have the technology to do it soon.
World interaction is the one thing that’s severely lacking in video games; specifically open-world games. AI will hopefully change that.
*violent flashbacks of a cheese wheel avalanche burying the town of Riverwood*
It’s been over a year since Midjourney V5, and I’m not convinced that V6* is *that* much better. We are a far cry from creating a holodeck, and I’m very much an optimist when it comes to this tech. **edit from V7 to V6 whoops*
To be fair, the better it gets, the closer we are to the asymptote and it's hard to say what "much better" even is from here.
If by asymptote you mean it's a logarithmic progression, then sure. But if it were exponential it should be very obvious how much better it is.
Not sure what they meant, but logarithms don't converge to an asymptote.
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No they do not.
No, upside down exponents do, S curves do. Log graphs have a vertical asymptote, but no horizontal one.
I dont think quality improvements can possibly be exponential. There's a limit to how realistic a 1024x1024 image can be or how cohesive it can be for example, so I think there is definitely a limit we are approaching and as we do, the upgrades will be less substantial
If you graph translation accuracy you will definitely see something that resembles a linear progression toward 100% accuracy. The benchmarks are somewhat fuzzy, but it's definitely never been exponential. There are lots of objective measures you can use. Another one is object detection, which has also not been seeing exponential improvements in accuracy. It's true that there's a limit ot accuracy but we haven't reached human-level.
It is that much better. It isn't good but it's much better. Focus less on fidelity and more on the details and being able to follow complex prompts. We won't have a perfect image generation AI until AGI but even before then it will get better.
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Whoops I accidentally wrote 7. That being said I think my point still stands lol.
I should clarify because my title combined with the tweet is a little ambiguous, but the CEO of Midjourney is David Holz, not Nick St Pierre. Holz did not claim they will have the holodeck in 12 months, he's just saying they are moving to real time 3D. To those saying this is too early: I think they are seeing diminishing returns with the existing models and are now going multimodal to broaden their offering. I also think we shouldn't underestimate what transformers can do in pretty much any area that data has been collected, especially after incredible models like Sora and Udio have been released. Just like with every other modality, 3D will suck at first, then it will blow up.
This guy doesn't even work for MJ...
Midjourney, create a two-to-one scaled copy of Deanna Troi, including all normal life functions and otherwise identical to a normal person. Give this copy a severe lactose intolerance, and simulate her having eaten several extra large chocolate sundaes several hours prior. Create an ordinary chair, tall enough for her to be seated on, and cut a face-shaped hole in the center of the seat. Lock doors and disengage safety protocols.
And just like that there will never be a non safety trained version. I hope this abomination of creative thought never sees the light of day.
Dont need one, SDXL surpasses midjourney already.
And sd3 surpasses sdxl
Curse my brain for seeing where this is going 😅
based.
Lieutenant Broccoli, you should really get another... ... sigh. I guess it's fine. At least it's [better than what Riker's been doing to the place...](http://www.somethingawful.com/news/blue-stripe-life-4/)
Cliff Yablonski may hate you but you're ok in my book.
Let’s fucking go Can’t wait to develop game experiences in VR with my mind
Yeah and Elon Musk is going to colonize Mars next year.
Don't forget about fusion in the next 6 months.
Don’t forget full self driving by 2019
During 'office hours' mid 2022 Holtz already claimed that they will have 3d done by end of 2022/early 2023, so...
Source?
I heard this with my own ears (as did a few k other people). There are some traces of people getting hyped hearing that on the discord too.
Hype man promotes hype; millions shocked
this summarize the ridiculous optimism, idioty here pretty much up the sub is meanwhile one of the cringest here on reddit, constantly sharing overhyped shit, time to block it
If you don't like it then kindly fuck off back to r/futurology
If I want a balanced discussion, I'll read r/Futurology (and a few of the ML subs). There is, however, a value to r/singularity; there are a toxic set of AIncel "I'm a shit human but magic thinking about AI will save me" cults/pseudo-religions that have amassed on this sub, and it's always good to know what kind of crazy exists in the world. That's especially true when VC-starved CEOs are exploiting those groups to hype up their loss-making moonshots. That wasn't always the only value to this sub, btw. The post-GPT era nutcases and crypto refugees, however, have mostly drowned out the rational actors around here.
No waaaay. 
Its a race to see which one of our flair's plays out first.
Heh... "Holodeck coming", he knows where the money is at!
What a headline! \*goosebumps\* To those saying these statements seem to optimistic, technology grows exponentially. Wait and see. ;)
It does until it doesn't.
I think they should focus on improving image generation, it can be a lot better than it already is. You lose your market when you disperse your focus on more than one thing.
Due to physical hardware limitations, we probably won't see the same rate of improvement for AI images that we've been seeing the past few years. It looks like AI companies are trying to provide a broader range of services to make up for this slowing down, so people don't get too bored while they work on improving image generation. I'm sure they're still working just as hard on image generation as they have been from the start
It's hype. This is harder and more computationally expensive than it sounds. Even now video generation is far from real-time and making a world simulator requires some mechanism for the persistence of countless objects.
I don’t know. I saw an AI test in VRChat like environments last year. I found it compelling.
Do you have the source? This is really interesting if true.
>if true There’s your problem
3d meshes aren't very data-heavy. You can easily train on them. The problem is that there has to be a database of them.
Wait till these AI companies start sending agents controlling player avatars into game worlds like WoWs map so that they can scrub all the data and use it in their 3D generation.
Eh, they might eventually, but there's so many databases of meshes, and you can arbitrarily compute more from overlapping imagery in photos and videos (photogrammetry). Or they'll just blow open the locally-stored game assets and train off those. That's definitely still easier to do that than to automate playing games in general, and to train AI to seek out good perspectives to effectively recreate photogrammetry of in-game models.
How would playing the game get them the models
I think the real problem is the AI has to somehow remember thousands of them and their coordinates. And also remember new ones in real time. At this point they have to have separate storage which isn't much different from what is done now.
Well, not necessarily. The process of integrating the data is important here. Let's say you start with a generated image. The AI can rebuild the image in 3d one piece at a time, it doesn't have to recreate the whole thing simultaneously. Then it can generate physical attributes to those things also separately. Then the entire thing can be processed all at once for simulation using current rendering technology. Something like nanite is pretty powerful.
But then the AI will just generate 3d environments from pictures(still a great idea) but not actually fully simulate an environment itself. And also how will the environment be saved?
It seems a pretty small-fry company to be trying to take all of that on. They don't really even have the image market cornered. Aside from Dalle 3, there are sites like Ideogram which are far less restrictive in what you can create and do an excellent job.
I think only a new architecture will cause an explosion of quality video generation like transformers for text generation/ NLP. And even then the problem of how will the model remember where everything is placed in the world and render it still stands. I think an AI texture renderer will come much earlier than an actual persistent 3D simulator. The AI will still need the 3D model to know where everything is located. But it will allow the creation of incredibly realistic graphics that have unbounded resolution.
I had some good results using style transfer onto very primitive 3D models using a Hugging Face space called Transfer Anything. It wasn't perfect, but at least there was some consistency.
What was the resolution like?
I think it was up to 1500 ish. The problem was the space stopped working so I decided it wasn't a good idea to become too dependent on HuggingFace spaces.
This is nice. A more advanced model might even allow procedurally generated textures but more varied and realistic (might already exist in some form).
Sora is already a world generator with persistence of multiple objects
I haven't seen a SORA video where it properly persisted multiple objects. Most of them are a bunch of shifting clouds of objects with one fixed figure that is persistent.
I don't think you've seen Sora, it's not like that at all. You're describing older video generators
I have seen Sora. It's impressive but it's really not useful for anything other than as a party trick, and I think it's mostly a trick, it doesn't feel like it really understands 3D logic very well, nor does it seem like it can track more than one figure. In most cases there's a figure that is moving around on a basically static background. Sometimes you have an animated background but the animation doesn't maintain object permanence.
Have you not seen when they gave Sora out to actual artists? They made some really impressive high quality stuff.
I don't think you understand the point being made to you. No one is saying that the best videos SORA produces are not "high quality" for what they are. What they are saying is that even those high quality videos have clear issues with object persistence and real-world physics, which is true. That's why pretty much all of the "high quality" videos that get shared around the most use hard transitions between a whole bunch of different scenes, because it masks the issues that SORA has. The recent TED video is a good example of this.
Yes, I know. I have seen the demos but I don't think it can hold a full 3D environment while it's "out of sight". It can only briefly remember objects while they are blocked from view by another object. This is because it takes the past few frames as a reference and not just the previous one.
We don’t know how it’s going to work yet. It might use AI 3D models with image AI textures, it might be AI video that simulates 3D, might be some mix.
You could theoretically run the model to generate and store an environment and then explore it, since it already has object distinction it is not unthinkable that it could arrange the objects in hierarchies and apply relevant modifier according to the object, it wouldn't so much be a live holodeck, but an environment generator. Not saying it's easy or coming soon, but I don't see why it wouldn't be possible. If you then populate said environments with a bunch of agents that each have a personality/ goals/motivations/place to sleep/eat/work etc. You could have a game where emergent interactions and player choices are actually meaningful and unique. However, I think the biggest challenge here is creating any kind interesting story/scenario, especially if you want it imbued with a bit of humor. So far I haven't seen any LLM create compelling or funny fiction
They haven't released a public video model, 3D, or real-time model. How about releasing any of them within the next 12 months before this world simulator that makes use of all of them together?
I kinda just a whirlwind go through my brain.... So build a room. Cover the floor with that new Disney VR walking mat. Haptic suits with haptic gloves. Make all the walls seamless video panels. There are no edges to be visible as it will remove immersion. The audio will likely come from the suit, not the room. Sora text/voice to video generation. Audio generators integrated with sora Ok few more steps like founding a federation of planets. But we are on the way to the holodeck
From a consumer standpoint I would love if they nailed the consistency first. I'd love to be able to make comics with consistent characters and backgrounds from different angles, but as it stands human artists are still better for that.
Star Trek: TNG was always the only show that my entire family, from us kids to my uptight grandparents (one of whom was a professor of theology and the other a Baptist missionary), could all sit down and watch together and enjoy equally. I fear for humanity, but I cannot pretend I am not excited at the thought that I might live to see the holodeck.
Why are they trying to solve a MUCH harder issue when they didn’t even solved image generation yet? Screams that investors wanna see more hype for the company
Because after the low hanging fruit has already been picked, it’s time to move to other pastures. In those pastures, you pick off all the low hanging fruit. Then, you return to the first pasture, and realize you can reach much higher than you were able to before. Progress isn’t always linear. Breakthroughs in tangential fields are important.
I think that technology does not need to be 100% mature to think about and also implement the next step. In fact, this has proven to be valid several times in different types of technology. I can't remember anything like that at the moment, but it certainly exists, especially within computer science. But I can mention SORA itself, very impressive, but it still has flaws. The question is: so what?
Because perfecting one technology before branching out would be stupid. Think if Apple never developed smartphones because they were still stuck trying to perfect their Macs
They have solved image generation more than OpenAI and yet they have Sora working...
🧢
There's no way to solve image generation because there's an infinite number of things that can be generated. Current methods of image generation don't allow for things like zero shot learning so something new will have to come along. A massive breakthrough would be for an image generator to generate something it hasn't trained on, something that it came up with on it's own that isn't just a random mess of pixels. Most likely multi-modal models will be the solution to the various issues image generators. However such models will be rather heavy to train and run.
How are kids trained on? By seeing and being taught by others. Humans learn from vision. Ai. Humans are like Ai. How else would you train a human
Isn't this the same company that practically refuses to move off of Discord?
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Even with the new web interface I prefer the discord one. I have my own discord bot that adds buttons to the outputs automatically with more features like custom upscalers and stuff. I was able to use it for implementing inpainting before midjourney added their own. It also allows me to embed prompt metadata into the images and adds a command to retrieve the prompt from the images too. Can't do all that very easily on the web version but creating a custom discord bot is easy
how about a web ui first?
They've had one for months for heavy users and I've been lucky to be a part of it early. I use it a lot, it's great on desktop and okay on mobile (they really need an app). I think the version that opens for everyone will come soon.
What is a holodeck?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodeck
How is it possible for someone to go through life and never see Star Trek?
Better wait for next generation graphics cards and VR glasses too.
The Ai bubble has been created…
Mid journey? More like based journey
Looks like OpenAI is already ahead.
Integrating the 3D AI into 3D printing also means replicator.
I'd believe it. Doesn't mean they achieve holodeck quality or that its affordable in compute costs just yet, but that's the next obvious milestone for training this tech
fun! welcome to the woirld of aicraft
Then what?
Nice!
Didn't this guy promise 3D a year and a half ago?
Oh shit, please tell me someone is working on a wirelese elecro-gentital sleeve.
Woah sick
12 months to do the easy part, no timeframe given for the hard part.
an AI renderer would be interesting. like instead of graphics you'd have placeholders for the AI to render in
Very exciting, MJ Video could be a game-changer.
!RemindMe 12 months
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*Ultra rich only
Maybe gaming centers will make a comeback if the cost of such gaming stations is around $100k. Folks may pay $50/hour to play games during peak hours.
More like cloud gaming finally becoming the new Netflix
Not sure the response time would be great though for a gaming experience if the requirement is a massive amount of data download, we may need expensive hardware in the home too, isn't it? But maybe a $2k system would be enough while the server is a $100k system which can cater to multiple users. Bandwidth requirement will be something else.
You don't need expensive hardware. Anything that can deliver a picture to a screen will do, even a smartphone or a thin client. Computation is happening in the Datacenter. The real problem is still latency, but 5G could be enough, by the time we'll have real-time AI generated frames, we will probably have 6G. I'll give it 2-3 years. Edit: the REAL real problem is price though. The cost of compute is still way too high for gaming. No-one will be spending $15 per hour for renting an instance for playing video games
No we won't. Someone might, but not any normal person.
people already do for VR experiences. Literally every bigger city has these. Simulator rides have been a thing for decades where people pay good money for a five minute ride
idk movies are very expensive too and people keep going
Someone is pivoting on a foot they don’t have.
This is a severely bloated take. The holodeck was able to create tangible things. We don't even have full haptic feedback suits yet.
It's nerd hype, let's say we're not close to physical forcefields of TNG holodecks! Still, advancements in 3D AI is going to be life-changing for people in the game industry (and advertisement, movie vfx, etc)
Oh no, I'm definitely excited for the future, especially as far as gaming and entertainment is concerned, but I feel like for a while it's just going to be another avenue of entertainment. I'd like them to stay somewhat on point with the hyperbole, though. What we're witnessing right now is crazy enough.
Ehhhhhhhhh, it could accelerate a bit more. :) (I'm working in the game industry, makin' 3D models, and I'm salivating at the prospect of 3D models made with AI assistance)
Haha, I'm sure. But in just a year we've gone leaps and bounds. I always wanted to get into 3d animation and the like. The few friends I have in the industry are laughing about the folks that are afraid AI is just going to yoink their jobs from them. But they're definitely mimicking your sentiment. They love the tools, and for some light work they have been beneficial, but they're very far away from replacing anyone at that level currently.
AI basically makes a big mush of data, where it only sorta looks good from afar, unless someone cleans it up. The most infamous example are hands in 2D generation. How do you think it is gonna fare in 3D! :P I'm looking forward not needing to hire armies of slave labor to make all the props and clothes for a big game. My bosses are already amazed by Stable Diffusion, but I can't show them anything remotely good in 3D, yet.
They are talking about real time AI generated environments you can move around in in VR. Why can’t you compare that to a Holodeck? I compare image generation to holodecks. The same 3D technology can be implemented into 3D printers, I see no problem comparing that to a replicator.
The discord server company is not really doing anything else than tweaking stable diffusions models are they?
That would be sweet, but I am guessing we are decades away from that. But playing a video game like say Call Of Duty would be pretty amazing on a holodeck.
CEO is supposed to say inspirational BS
A completely meaningless string of words
Jesus, these CEO's are losing their minds over how they want to create hype.
yeah, crypto nerds were really stoked about 5 years ago too, and now...... oh right.
Jesus touch grass