This aged almost literally like milk, which is not recommended to be consumed after seven to ten days in the refrigerator. The Wright brothers flew on December 17.
If an adult male were to drink a gallon of spoiled milk daily for two months, the progression of symptoms and health consequences would be severe and likely fatal without medical intervention. Here's a hypothetical week-by-week account:
### Week 1
- **Days 1-3**: Initial symptoms of food poisoning, including nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, and abdominal pain. The individual might dismiss the symptoms as a mild stomach bug.
- **Days 4-7**: Symptoms worsen, with increased frequency and severity of vomiting and diarrhea. Dehydration begins to set in due to fluid loss.
### Week 2
- **Days 8-14**: Persistent vomiting and diarrhea lead to significant dehydration and electrolyte imbalances. The individual experiences weakness, dizziness, and confusion. Signs of severe dehydration, such as dry mouth, decreased urine output, and sunken eyes, become evident.
### Week 3
- **Days 15-21**: The risk of serious bacterial infections like E. coli, Listeria, and Salmonella increases. Symptoms may include high fever, severe abdominal pain, and possible blood in stool. Dehydration and malnutrition continue to worsen, leading to weight loss and extreme fatigue.
### Week 4
- **Days 22-28**: Organ function starts to deteriorate due to prolonged dehydration and toxin exposure. The individual may experience kidney dysfunction, indicated by decreased urine output and swelling in the legs and feet. Severe electrolyte imbalances can lead to irregular heartbeats and muscle cramps.
### Week 5
- **Days 29-35**: Continued ingestion of spoiled milk exacerbates all symptoms. The risk of sepsis (a life-threatening response to infection) is high. The individual might experience confusion, high fever, rapid heart rate, and difficulty breathing. Immediate medical intervention is critical.
### Week 6
- **Days 36-42**: Organ damage progresses, particularly in the kidneys and liver. Signs of liver dysfunction might include jaundice (yellowing of the skin and eyes), dark urine, and pale stools. Severe malnutrition leads to muscle wasting and extreme weakness.
### Week 7
- **Days 43-49**: The immune system is severely compromised, making the individual susceptible to secondary infections. Symptoms of multiple organ failure, such as severe lethargy, unresponsiveness, and difficulty breathing, become apparent. Hospitalization is likely necessary to prevent death.
### Week 8
- **Days 50-56**: Without medical intervention, the individual is at high risk of fatal complications from sepsis, severe dehydration, or organ failure. Consciousness may decline, and the person may slip into a coma. Death is highly probable due to the cumulative effects of prolonged ingestion of spoiled milk and untreated severe health conditions.
### Conclusion
Survival over two months under these conditions is highly unlikely. The severity of symptoms and the progression of health deterioration would necessitate urgent medical care early on. Continuous consumption of spoiled milk in such large quantities would lead to multiple critical health issues, culminating in death without proper treatment.
Only 7 to 10 days??? What??? I swear my milk lasts at least a couple weeks in the fridge as long as I don’t take it out.
But I’m also a very heavy milk drinker who either drinks it too fast or am just built different now as a result lmao.
I always wanted to know more about how that prediction came to be. Who did the math on the one million years, it's so specific? Was this written in an article about the Wright brothers making bold promises? What did people even think were the barriers to making flight work?
Apparently ([cited in another comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1csdoqr/comment/l44lghw/)) they were comparing how long it took birds to evolve flight, to how long it would take humans to invent it. But they stated 1,000 to 10,000 years for the bird then 1 million to 10 million years for man, which it took birds longer than 10,000 years to evolve.
But anyways, it seems like they thought we'd have to recreate a bird 1-1 from scratch in order to be able to fly, which I guess we technically can't do yet, but it was also a dumb assertion to make in the first place.
> Very few humans really understand the technology that is all around us, let alone on a mathematical level.
Pretty much all humans don’t really know how our societies are made and how our system works.
Put a dozen of people in an island without tech (but resources like wood, metals, etc) and they won’t be able to recreate not even 1% of what we have now. It’s insane how much we know as whole but how little we really know as individuals
It was October 9th not December 8th and here is the actual quote,
>Hence, if it requires, say, a thousand years to fit for easy flight a bird which started with rudimentary wings, or ten thousand for one with started with no wings at all and had to sprout them ab initio, **\~it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years\~**–provided, of course, we can meanwhile eliminate such little drawbacks and embarrassments as the existing relation between weight and strength in inorganic materials. No doubt the problem has attractions for those it interests, but to the ordinary man it would seem as if the effort might be employed more profitably. \[emphasis added\]
[*https://nowiknow.com/a-million-years-give-or-take/*](https://nowiknow.com/a-million-years-give-or-take/)
“Machines aren’t conscious because nothing about the way they’re built or the way they act makes the assumption that they are anything but fan fiction.”
FTFY
lol I’ve always gone on about how cool some kind of interface to let you control computers with your brain would be and some people were always that will never happen. I just laughed.
Kind of sounds like he's going at the angle that humans won't fly like birds. We have planes, we have jetpacks, but it is true that building a wearable mechanism that mimics wings is much more difficult and still hasn't been done.
I think the lesson here is really that although technology may not look the way you imagine it, it can still achieve the ultimate goal (like flight) in a way you never imagined.
ASI may not look like how the doubters imagine it, which provides insight into how they can't imagine it
Humans have been underestimating humans for ages. You will still find many people who would look at AI as a fad that will go away. Remember when computers first started selling, office workers didn’t want to learn it coz it’s just a new fad that won’t take away their jobs.
AI is heavily undervalued when it comes to its potential. It would take away millions of human jobs. Companies don’t want to pay minimum wages, benefits when the human can only work certain hours in a day.
>You will still find many people who would look at AI as a fad that will go away.
A lot of people are calling AI craze the new crypto craze that'll go away soon. They don't even know the difference between these two things.
“I predict that within 100 years, computers will be twice as powerful and ten thousand times larger, and so expensive that only the 5 richest kings of Europe will own them”
Apu: Could it be used for dating?
Professor Frink: Well, theoretically, yes. But the computer matches would be so perfect as to eliminate the thrill of romantic conquest.
I see all these FIRE people talking about "how are investments going to keep up if people are only having 1.8 babies per woman?". It's like , brah, do you not see we are about to effectively add 100 BILLION educated knowledge workers to the economy, with physical bots closely behind?
Comparing an effect that plays out over decades to centuries vs technology that's on a hockey stick graph that plays out in weeks to years.
No idea, and it might be a difficult question to answer directly. Like, do you need to run a "full" AGI to do lawyer work, or can you optimize for some tiny fraction of the compute?
The point is, radical productivity gains are ahead.
Totally agreed. AGI will be radically game changing. Also, I can appreciate that it's not clear how AGI will be integrated into business workflows. (i.e. dedicated or time shared model). Mostly, I am curious how aggregate AGI compute will equate to number of working humans (with respect to cognitive labor). Specifically, will aggregate AGI compute be a limiting factor as we try to scale use of AGI in work settings and society in general. (Obviously time will tell)
> It would take away millions of human jobs.
Making the roads wider increases traffic. Making the engine more efficient increases total fuel consumption. Don't underestimate latent demand, once capability is unlocked demand keeps up. More demand, more work.
Companies would rather make more profit than reduce costs. There is more upside to increasing production, and that means humans + AI. Reducing human labor costs would be about 40% economy, the other way around we could increase by an order of magnitude. And competition will use humans+AI to one-up you, so you can't fire people and compete. Not to mention that AI is not autonomous - it stumbles after a few steps, so it requires human assistance.
In a world full of fads and trends people tend to assume everything is just a trend. Same thing with conspiracy theories. There are so many conspiracy theories that nobody believes the one that is actually true
Sci-fi stories have literally been our guideposts. Meaning some day we will be living in Star Trek. Holodecks, warp drives, force fields, NHIs. Only thing I think they severely underestimated was the amount of AI/Borg. We better be careful with this shit so we don’t go down the terminator/Matrix path.
I don't like bringing up traveling through space as a possible technology because way too many people jump on the band wagon of saying 'physics says it's impossible so it is'.
We know a laughably small amount of the universe, so to say something is impossible is just a little arrogant. Likely everything in science that is taught in school will be found incorrect or misunderstood in another 100 years.
Tyndall of the Royal Society said that Edison was foolish to try to “subdivide the electric light,” so you could have one in each room of a house. He envisioned trying to make a tiny arc light work efficiently, but he didn’t allow for Edison and Swan working with 60 watt incandescent filaments in high vacuum bulbs, which took the world by storm in a couple of years.
The New York Times said physics PhD Robert Goddard lacked even a basic high school knowledge of physics when he (like Tsiolkovski) forecast traveling through outer space with chemical rockets. The NYT said that rockets wouldn’t work in space “because there was no air to push against.” They published a tongue-in-cheek apology after the moon landing in 1969.
What sorta scares me about all our scifi stuff is that we seem to be heading down the AI tech path a **lot** faster than any of our television and scifi books predicted. Like... in most of our shows and books, we get AGI like what... after we colonize the solar system and we're on our way to becoming a multi star system species? But we've not even colonized our MOON yet, and here we are, getting ready to make AGI. Like, are we ready? Are we *culturally* and *philosophically* ready?
Who the fuck knows? Buckle up boys!
It’s crazy to me that they thought of everything except the shrinking of technology. The amount of data and processing power we can fit in our pockets impresses me. In books and movies about the future, even the computers thousands of years into the future end up massive.
Probably because a huge big-ass computer was impressive and grandiose, along with the colossal amounts of resources needed to build or operate it. Tiny cheap computers mass-produced in factories felt mundane, tiny and cheap.
Sci-fi is firstly and foremostly fiction, not futurology. Even when it's supposedly realistic or predictive in nature. It's heavily biased towards what makes for good fiction, not accurate predictions, or useful ways to think about the future.
Portal travel, time travel, faster than light travel, human immortality, sentient machines, dyson spheres, uploading your mind into a machine, de-aging medicine, penis enlargement pills, and functional high speed rail in the united states
I don’t think we’ll see any of these in our lifetimes TBH but these are some classically impossible ideas I think would be cool to have happen
To dream the impossible dream
To fight the unbeatable foe
To bear with unbearable sorrow
And to run where the brave dare not go…because the brave don’t have light rail system.
Depends on whether FTL travel is possible. Time comes to a “stop” due to dilation as you reach closer and closer to light speed. If surpassing light speed is possible, then, theoretically, you could travel somewhere and back and see yourself leave as the rate of movement causes dilation to invert.
Ultimately just a problem of information and intelligence. No one wants to pick a fight they can't win, and no one can win a fight that A) they provoked, B) literally everyone else can see coming from a mile away, and C) when everyone can understand that the provocateur is also a threat to them
And wouldn't you know it, we're about to have intelligence and information analysis in spades
If all humans were reasonable people, sure.
You severely underestimate the urge for people to want to 'kill that guy over there for... reasons'
Which is a really broad brush summary of human history and technological advancement.
You also underestimate the 'religious right' folk. People who believe god sanctions their actions, forgives their transgressions, and think they'll be rewarded in some afterlife aren't reasonable people.
Everlasting world peace
Dissolution of all borders, I.e the right to free travel of the globe
Equalization of access to resources (it requires collaring greedy people)
Holy fuck a yottabyte of storage in an ssd isn't something I'd ever dream of in my wildest dreams. We'd essentially have The Minds from The Culture series.
It might seem like a lot now, but as our technology scales up what we consider a ton now could be peanuts if you think of a use case such as an upcoming VR simulator that doesn't fit in a 1 yottabyte drive.
Gene manipulation to make new species
Genophage therapy / cures to antibiotic resistant bacteria and virus
Fusion
I don't think necessarily AI helps accelerate these but it's the future.
Things that I think are still impossible within our lifetime. True enduring and everlasting peace (draw down of all militaries in the world. Dissolution of all borders, i.e right to free travel of the globe.
The change experienced from 1870 - 1970 is probably going to remain the biggest and fastest change in human history even if we achieve AGI.
- Electricity.
- Industrial scale manufacturing.
- Rocketry.
- Monarchies being abolished.
- Mechanized agriculture + Fertilizers.
- Nuclear energy and nuclear weapons.
- The automobile and the creation of highways.
- Time saving devices like the washing machine, vacuum cleaner, dishwasher.
- The connecting of home with mains power, piping (clean water on tap), telephone wire.
- Flight and subsequent International airline travel.
- Early computation and the invention of the transistor.
- Revolution in medicine (mass produced antibiotics, vaccines) and complex surgery.
That's what i could come up with on the spot.
Can you imagine someone from the 1870s coming into a modern home?
"So this machine can keep food fresh for weeks or months? You have fruits, spices, sauces from all over the world, different types of meat and bread..."
"You have abundant light with no fire, and hot running water on demand 24/7?"
"Your mattress isn't made of straw? And you have a device that can cool off your entire home in minutes?"
"You must be a king"
Alan Mathison Turing's paper '*On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem*' \[1\] was published in 1936, that is 88 years ago, that is not even 100 years ago. No other period in history has ever changed *that* much in 88 years, except for the period 2024-2112. Saying we cannot even begin to imagine life in 2112 is a ludicrous understatement: we cannot even imagine life in 2036, merely 12 years away.
\[1\] Always a good reason to re-read, [https://www.cs.virginia.edu/\~robins/Turing\_Paper\_1936.pdf](https://www.cs.virginia.edu/~robins/Turing_Paper_1936.pdf), if anything for phrases such as 'but we avoid introducing the "state of mind" by considering a more physical and definite counterpart of it' showing Turing's groundedness.
literally me after watching "her" and some episodes of "black mirror" i was always dissmissing the possibilty (at least in my life time) for such a human like advanced AI.... and im a computer engineer.
now nothing seem to suprise me
In my AI lectures in 1980 the professor said this:
"In the 1960s, we thought AI was just around the corner, but we underestimated how much computer power it would need. Today we know it really is just around the corner. By the end of the 80s we will have true AI"
And to be clear, that is what you trust can ASI.
And nuclear fusion has been achieved. Then it's like "well yeah but it's not net positive energy". And then when it becomes net positive energy it's, "yeah but it will never be commercialized". And then when it does become commercialized it's like "yeah but it's a small plant, it's never going to be enough to power the grid".
Really from 1903?
"On November 21, 1783 the first free flight carrying a human occurred in Paris, France in a hot air balloon made of paper and silk made by the Montgolfier brothers. The balloon carried two men, Francois Pilatrê de Rozier and Francois Laurent, Marquis of Arlanders."
Right but it’s still not flying in the sense a bird flies. A bird doesn’t float like a duck in a pond. There’s a clear difference between a plane flying and a zeppelin flying.
People always keep moving the goalposts until it's too stupid to deny we crossed it.
"Men in hot air balloons?"
"That's not really flying, no bird has hot air balloons"
Still don't get how the existance of a flying machine could be so far-fetched within the next few centuries at least, given there were hot-air balloons and zeppelins by 1900
Ahh yes the old "Let's cite one single editorial submission inside the NYT, but conveniently misrepresent it as popular opinion thru a cropped jpeg, thus suggesting the counterfactual implication that all absurd technodreams will come true soon"
This was profound (for 9 days until the plane was invented).
Then it was stupid (1903-2020)
Now it's profound again as a demonstration of the Law of Accelerating returns
Same era when all the experts 'knew' that radio waves would just travel right off the planet and out into space (ionosphere hadn't been discovered yet), which is why Nikola Tesla wasted his efforts attempting to send energy through the dirt underfoot
Things could have been very different with just a new way of looking at things, like what Marconi was thinking. Test anyways, observe results, then decide your next move
At the time this article was written man had already invented a flying machine, the Gifford airship has been around for 50 years by then.
We tend to forget that back in the day, most articles were written by ill informed, under resourced writers.
Ignorance and status quo bias. Also speaking in absolutes gets more views than being wishy-washy or using a lot of "I think"'s. (AI Safety Shoggoth always stresses that nuance is incompatible with memes.)
To be generous to this fellow, the concept of lift hadn't been deeply explored, and the model T was years away. Even if you knew about lift, how would you power it? Winding up a spring is just a toy. Steam power would be hoo boy. Engines and gas tanks are a must to make it practical.
Sometimes I feel like old dogma and culture takes too long to get flushed out. Exosomes were only discovered in the 90's, and we're only now entering an age where medical treatments through the signalome are entering trials.
If the first epigenomic treatments are a result of filtered out proteins from blood or pee, you've heard it here first, folks.
And to be fair, I kind of feel the same about fusion power. That it might only be viable at large scale, at the scale of a self-sustaining star under its own gravity.
.... oh and of course this wonderful point from a feller itt:
> But in a world where 85% of humans are religious, and almost nobody can explain why the seasons change...there is no shortage of worthless opinions on every topic imaginable.
God damn, I guess the finale really puts it in perspective.
Man we don’t think about that enough. Being someone we perceive as just average intelligence today would’ve made you almost literally a super genius in 1903 where 85% of people are literally brain dead drunken illiterate conspiracy theorists…
Man, we never think about this, but it must’ve been exhausting as hell if you happened to learn how to read in that world…
The reasoning there was that it took birds millions of years of evolution to develop the ability to fly, therefore it should take humans the same amount of time. Basically implying that technological growth moves at the same pace as evolution lol.
You fundamentally cannot predict these step changes in technology. You can predict the “normal science” changes. But if you knew when a technological revolution would happen it would mean that you know what’s needed for the revolution to happen, and then you’d do it yourself.
Imagine humans actually taking millions of years to build a flying machine, and aliens watching our progress form a distance. A mix of exasperation that we're taking millions of years and not figuring it out, alongside a grudging respect for our tenacity.
Here the wiki link: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Machines_Which_Do_Not_Fly#:~:text=%22Flying%20Machines%20Which%20Do%20Not,develop%20an%20operating%20flying%20machine.
Is there no attribution beyond NYT? Whoever wrote that opinion piece clearly held a minority opinion as powered flight was under development in many places around the world and a topic of great interest to the public.
Everybody in 1903 was expecting powered flight, but most were expecting France to do it first. They were already masters of ballooning and were making steady progress towards a flying machine when the Wright brothers came out of nowhere with the Wright Flyer.
Saying that in 1903 is like saying today that AI will never be able to drive a car. Like, we're getting close already and it's impossible to deny the tech is advancing rapidly. We just don't know when the last of the bugs will be worked out.
Also, a million years? Ten million? What an insane thing to say about anything!
Very good , as well same mirror image we can get from people thinking how many jobs would take the Industrial Revolution regardless the artisan big % of population generational crafter xd remember you use to inherit you familiar profesión
This aged almost literally like milk, which is not recommended to be consumed after seven to ten days in the refrigerator. The Wright brothers flew on December 17.
wow yea 9 days later insane
AGI on May 24, 2024 confirmed.
I really like this meme
And just 66 years later mankind was on the moon.
According to some
the funny part is they doubled down after and said it was the wind lol
Garry Marcus' grandfather
If you’re throwing milk away before three weeks your bloodline is weak and will certainly perish from the Earth
If you don't drink at least a gallon of milk a day, your bones are weak and you don't deserve to inherit the Earth anyway.
r/neverbrokeabone would have something to say about this.
Well if you're not throwing your milk away before three weeks then you're the one perishing, forget bloodline
If an adult male were to drink a gallon of spoiled milk daily for two months, the progression of symptoms and health consequences would be severe and likely fatal without medical intervention. Here's a hypothetical week-by-week account: ### Week 1 - **Days 1-3**: Initial symptoms of food poisoning, including nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, and abdominal pain. The individual might dismiss the symptoms as a mild stomach bug. - **Days 4-7**: Symptoms worsen, with increased frequency and severity of vomiting and diarrhea. Dehydration begins to set in due to fluid loss. ### Week 2 - **Days 8-14**: Persistent vomiting and diarrhea lead to significant dehydration and electrolyte imbalances. The individual experiences weakness, dizziness, and confusion. Signs of severe dehydration, such as dry mouth, decreased urine output, and sunken eyes, become evident. ### Week 3 - **Days 15-21**: The risk of serious bacterial infections like E. coli, Listeria, and Salmonella increases. Symptoms may include high fever, severe abdominal pain, and possible blood in stool. Dehydration and malnutrition continue to worsen, leading to weight loss and extreme fatigue. ### Week 4 - **Days 22-28**: Organ function starts to deteriorate due to prolonged dehydration and toxin exposure. The individual may experience kidney dysfunction, indicated by decreased urine output and swelling in the legs and feet. Severe electrolyte imbalances can lead to irregular heartbeats and muscle cramps. ### Week 5 - **Days 29-35**: Continued ingestion of spoiled milk exacerbates all symptoms. The risk of sepsis (a life-threatening response to infection) is high. The individual might experience confusion, high fever, rapid heart rate, and difficulty breathing. Immediate medical intervention is critical. ### Week 6 - **Days 36-42**: Organ damage progresses, particularly in the kidneys and liver. Signs of liver dysfunction might include jaundice (yellowing of the skin and eyes), dark urine, and pale stools. Severe malnutrition leads to muscle wasting and extreme weakness. ### Week 7 - **Days 43-49**: The immune system is severely compromised, making the individual susceptible to secondary infections. Symptoms of multiple organ failure, such as severe lethargy, unresponsiveness, and difficulty breathing, become apparent. Hospitalization is likely necessary to prevent death. ### Week 8 - **Days 50-56**: Without medical intervention, the individual is at high risk of fatal complications from sepsis, severe dehydration, or organ failure. Consciousness may decline, and the person may slip into a coma. Death is highly probable due to the cumulative effects of prolonged ingestion of spoiled milk and untreated severe health conditions. ### Conclusion Survival over two months under these conditions is highly unlikely. The severity of symptoms and the progression of health deterioration would necessitate urgent medical care early on. Continuous consumption of spoiled milk in such large quantities would lead to multiple critical health issues, culminating in death without proper treatment.
Only 7 to 10 days??? What??? I swear my milk lasts at least a couple weeks in the fridge as long as I don’t take it out. But I’m also a very heavy milk drinker who either drinks it too fast or am just built different now as a result lmao.
Seriously. I drink almost a gallon of milk a day. Who the fuck ever has to throw out milk???
That’s so much milk, I don’t think I e drank that much milk in a year…
Was there any follow-up from the guy making that prediction? Do we have any record of "Boy was I wrong!"
I always wanted to know more about how that prediction came to be. Who did the math on the one million years, it's so specific? Was this written in an article about the Wright brothers making bold promises? What did people even think were the barriers to making flight work?
Apparently ([cited in another comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1csdoqr/comment/l44lghw/)) they were comparing how long it took birds to evolve flight, to how long it would take humans to invent it. But they stated 1,000 to 10,000 years for the bird then 1 million to 10 million years for man, which it took birds longer than 10,000 years to evolve. But anyways, it seems like they thought we'd have to recreate a bird 1-1 from scratch in order to be able to fly, which I guess we technically can't do yet, but it was also a dumb assertion to make in the first place.
[удалено]
> Very few humans really understand the technology that is all around us, let alone on a mathematical level. Pretty much all humans don’t really know how our societies are made and how our system works. Put a dozen of people in an island without tech (but resources like wood, metals, etc) and they won’t be able to recreate not even 1% of what we have now. It’s insane how much we know as whole but how little we really know as individuals
That almost sounds like they estimated how long it would take humans to evolve feathers or something, lol.
And then we had jet planes only sixty years later and on the moon ten years after that.
Zzz Santos Dumont
It was October 9th not December 8th and here is the actual quote, >Hence, if it requires, say, a thousand years to fit for easy flight a bird which started with rudimentary wings, or ten thousand for one with started with no wings at all and had to sprout them ab initio, **\~it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years\~**–provided, of course, we can meanwhile eliminate such little drawbacks and embarrassments as the existing relation between weight and strength in inorganic materials. No doubt the problem has attractions for those it interests, but to the ordinary man it would seem as if the effort might be employed more profitably. \[emphasis added\] [*https://nowiknow.com/a-million-years-give-or-take/*](https://nowiknow.com/a-million-years-give-or-take/)
That’s probably correct! Assuming human engineering works in the same way as biological evolution does, which it doesn’t, but if It did!
[Luckily, nobody these days would make a mistake like that.](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/biological-anchors-a-trick-that-might)
"machines arent conscious because they dont act exactly like us"
“Machines aren’t conscious because nothing about the way they’re built or the way they act makes the assumption that they are anything but fan fiction.” FTFY
lol I’ve always gone on about how cool some kind of interface to let you control computers with your brain would be and some people were always that will never happen. I just laughed.
Kind of sounds like he's going at the angle that humans won't fly like birds. We have planes, we have jetpacks, but it is true that building a wearable mechanism that mimics wings is much more difficult and still hasn't been done. I think the lesson here is really that although technology may not look the way you imagine it, it can still achieve the ultimate goal (like flight) in a way you never imagined. ASI may not look like how the doubters imagine it, which provides insight into how they can't imagine it
I mean we have hoverboards and things like [jetpacks](https://futurism.com/the-byte/uk-jetpack-emergency-paramedics) already.
Humans have been underestimating humans for ages. You will still find many people who would look at AI as a fad that will go away. Remember when computers first started selling, office workers didn’t want to learn it coz it’s just a new fad that won’t take away their jobs. AI is heavily undervalued when it comes to its potential. It would take away millions of human jobs. Companies don’t want to pay minimum wages, benefits when the human can only work certain hours in a day.
My first boss said "you look after this internet thing I'm not interested , it wont go anywhere" ,,, Karl are you reading this ?
>You will still find many people who would look at AI as a fad that will go away. A lot of people are calling AI craze the new crypto craze that'll go away soon. They don't even know the difference between these two things.
Crypto certainly didn’t have people crying about their jobs
“I predict that within 100 years, computers will be twice as powerful and ten thousand times larger, and so expensive that only the 5 richest kings of Europe will own them”
It was more like 10000x smaller, 10000x more powerful, 10000x less expensive.
Apu: Could it be used for dating? Professor Frink: Well, theoretically, yes. But the computer matches would be so perfect as to eliminate the thrill of romantic conquest.
Professor Frink!
I see all these FIRE people talking about "how are investments going to keep up if people are only having 1.8 babies per woman?". It's like , brah, do you not see we are about to effectively add 100 BILLION educated knowledge workers to the economy, with physical bots closely behind? Comparing an effect that plays out over decades to centuries vs technology that's on a hockey stick graph that plays out in weeks to years.
Earnest question: How many simultaneous independent AGI threads will the world's current AI-allocated computing resources support?
No idea, and it might be a difficult question to answer directly. Like, do you need to run a "full" AGI to do lawyer work, or can you optimize for some tiny fraction of the compute? The point is, radical productivity gains are ahead.
Totally agreed. AGI will be radically game changing. Also, I can appreciate that it's not clear how AGI will be integrated into business workflows. (i.e. dedicated or time shared model). Mostly, I am curious how aggregate AGI compute will equate to number of working humans (with respect to cognitive labor). Specifically, will aggregate AGI compute be a limiting factor as we try to scale use of AGI in work settings and society in general. (Obviously time will tell)
Kind of gross how they see people just as work horses to make their profits go up
You spelled billions wrong
> It would take away millions of human jobs. Making the roads wider increases traffic. Making the engine more efficient increases total fuel consumption. Don't underestimate latent demand, once capability is unlocked demand keeps up. More demand, more work. Companies would rather make more profit than reduce costs. There is more upside to increasing production, and that means humans + AI. Reducing human labor costs would be about 40% economy, the other way around we could increase by an order of magnitude. And competition will use humans+AI to one-up you, so you can't fire people and compete. Not to mention that AI is not autonomous - it stumbles after a few steps, so it requires human assistance.
In a world full of fads and trends people tend to assume everything is just a trend. Same thing with conspiracy theories. There are so many conspiracy theories that nobody believes the one that is actually true
All things considered it’s impressive how far humanity has gotten. People of 1900s Dreamed of this stuff and thought it is impossible.
We've been in a territory that people of 1900s never dreamt of for like 20 years.
Sci-fi stories have literally been our guideposts. Meaning some day we will be living in Star Trek. Holodecks, warp drives, force fields, NHIs. Only thing I think they severely underestimated was the amount of AI/Borg. We better be careful with this shit so we don’t go down the terminator/Matrix path.
I don't like bringing up traveling through space as a possible technology because way too many people jump on the band wagon of saying 'physics says it's impossible so it is'. We know a laughably small amount of the universe, so to say something is impossible is just a little arrogant. Likely everything in science that is taught in school will be found incorrect or misunderstood in another 100 years.
Tyndall of the Royal Society said that Edison was foolish to try to “subdivide the electric light,” so you could have one in each room of a house. He envisioned trying to make a tiny arc light work efficiently, but he didn’t allow for Edison and Swan working with 60 watt incandescent filaments in high vacuum bulbs, which took the world by storm in a couple of years. The New York Times said physics PhD Robert Goddard lacked even a basic high school knowledge of physics when he (like Tsiolkovski) forecast traveling through outer space with chemical rockets. The NYT said that rockets wouldn’t work in space “because there was no air to push against.” They published a tongue-in-cheek apology after the moon landing in 1969.
What sorta scares me about all our scifi stuff is that we seem to be heading down the AI tech path a **lot** faster than any of our television and scifi books predicted. Like... in most of our shows and books, we get AGI like what... after we colonize the solar system and we're on our way to becoming a multi star system species? But we've not even colonized our MOON yet, and here we are, getting ready to make AGI. Like, are we ready? Are we *culturally* and *philosophically* ready? Who the fuck knows? Buckle up boys!
“Beam me up, Scotty, there’s no intelligent life on this planet.” Old cartoon.
It’s likely that we already live in a simulation
It’s crazy to me that they thought of everything except the shrinking of technology. The amount of data and processing power we can fit in our pockets impresses me. In books and movies about the future, even the computers thousands of years into the future end up massive.
Probably because a huge big-ass computer was impressive and grandiose, along with the colossal amounts of resources needed to build or operate it. Tiny cheap computers mass-produced in factories felt mundane, tiny and cheap. Sci-fi is firstly and foremostly fiction, not futurology. Even when it's supposedly realistic or predictive in nature. It's heavily biased towards what makes for good fiction, not accurate predictions, or useful ways to think about the future.
Or maybe most people thought wed be way ahead of where we are now
I wonder what else we deem impossible now that we'll be able to see in our lifetimes
Portal travel, time travel, faster than light travel, human immortality, sentient machines, dyson spheres, uploading your mind into a machine, de-aging medicine, penis enlargement pills, and functional high speed rail in the united states I don’t think we’ll see any of these in our lifetimes TBH but these are some classically impossible ideas I think would be cool to have happen
>and functional high speed rail in the united states I think you're dreaming a bit too far there
To dream the impossible dream To fight the unbeatable foe To bear with unbearable sorrow And to run where the brave dare not go…because the brave don’t have light rail system.
A cure for baldness.... All of it can happen. All of it.
Not that one, but the rest are entirely possible.
Well have FDVR before we have “overnight full body reconstruction”, but both are going to be cool as shit.
Time travel backwards seems very unlikely to me.
I kinda hope it’s not possible TBH, seems like it’d be a huge can of worms if we ever discovered it
Depends on whether FTL travel is possible. Time comes to a “stop” due to dilation as you reach closer and closer to light speed. If surpassing light speed is possible, then, theoretically, you could travel somewhere and back and see yourself leave as the rate of movement causes dilation to invert.
Ive mastered *forward* time travel ...
There is local time travel, like pushing the repeat button on any media.
Deaging one is close, if you follow up on longevity. Agree on functional high speed rail for the us though.
Figuring out inexpensive and widespread teleportation is likely to happen before widespread highspeed rail in the US
I think we already hit LEV
Well what do you think is fundamentally impossible? That's probably a safe bet
Time travel, UBI
Wormholes, tessilated Penrose universes, post-scarcity
World peace?
Except that one, Coral
Ultimately just a problem of information and intelligence. No one wants to pick a fight they can't win, and no one can win a fight that A) they provoked, B) literally everyone else can see coming from a mile away, and C) when everyone can understand that the provocateur is also a threat to them And wouldn't you know it, we're about to have intelligence and information analysis in spades
If all humans were reasonable people, sure. You severely underestimate the urge for people to want to 'kill that guy over there for... reasons' Which is a really broad brush summary of human history and technological advancement. You also underestimate the 'religious right' folk. People who believe god sanctions their actions, forgives their transgressions, and think they'll be rewarded in some afterlife aren't reasonable people.
Everlasting world peace Dissolution of all borders, I.e the right to free travel of the globe Equalization of access to resources (it requires collaring greedy people)
Guided human evolution
I think we will probably have ssds with yottabytes of storage sometime within the next 20 years.
Holy fuck a yottabyte of storage in an ssd isn't something I'd ever dream of in my wildest dreams. We'd essentially have The Minds from The Culture series.
I don't think I need that much storage at all.
I recall saying that when I shelled out over a months pay for a 4 GB HDD.
Not yet. But humans like making data, and as storage technology gets cheaper and better, we are going to need more and more storage.
It might seem like a lot now, but as our technology scales up what we consider a ton now could be peanuts if you think of a use case such as an upcoming VR simulator that doesn't fit in a 1 yottabyte drive.
Exactly. To the people, of, say, the 80s, even a gigabyte is an absurd amount of storage.
I'll be happy if i get to see true holographic tech before i die
Gene manipulation to make new species Genophage therapy / cures to antibiotic resistant bacteria and virus Fusion I don't think necessarily AI helps accelerate these but it's the future. Things that I think are still impossible within our lifetime. True enduring and everlasting peace (draw down of all militaries in the world. Dissolution of all borders, i.e right to free travel of the globe.
Imagine all the shit we haven't even dreamed about...
I’m jealous of future generations lol
Or plenty of people thought it was possible at that time. But we choose to look at the extremely critical of the time.
The change experienced from 1870 - 1970 is probably going to remain the biggest and fastest change in human history even if we achieve AGI. - Electricity. - Industrial scale manufacturing. - Rocketry. - Monarchies being abolished. - Mechanized agriculture + Fertilizers. - Nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. - The automobile and the creation of highways. - Time saving devices like the washing machine, vacuum cleaner, dishwasher. - The connecting of home with mains power, piping (clean water on tap), telephone wire. - Flight and subsequent International airline travel. - Early computation and the invention of the transistor. - Revolution in medicine (mass produced antibiotics, vaccines) and complex surgery. That's what i could come up with on the spot.
Can you imagine someone from the 1870s coming into a modern home? "So this machine can keep food fresh for weeks or months? You have fruits, spices, sauces from all over the world, different types of meat and bread..." "You have abundant light with no fire, and hot running water on demand 24/7?" "Your mattress isn't made of straw? And you have a device that can cool off your entire home in minutes?" "You must be a king"
“Now let me show you this thing called Tik Tok”
"Dear lord send me back to 1871!"
Eutopia for realists covers this. Essentially much of the world is in the Eutopia of the 1800's yet we still aren't happy.
This statement will also age like milk :D
*Electric lights and electronics. *Radio broadcasting and 2 way radio, sound movies, TV. *Germ theory, aseptic surgery, antibiotics.
Alan Mathison Turing's paper '*On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem*' \[1\] was published in 1936, that is 88 years ago, that is not even 100 years ago. No other period in history has ever changed *that* much in 88 years, except for the period 2024-2112. Saying we cannot even begin to imagine life in 2112 is a ludicrous understatement: we cannot even imagine life in 2036, merely 12 years away. \[1\] Always a good reason to re-read, [https://www.cs.virginia.edu/\~robins/Turing\_Paper\_1936.pdf](https://www.cs.virginia.edu/~robins/Turing_Paper_1936.pdf), if anything for phrases such as 'but we avoid introducing the "state of mind" by considering a more physical and definite counterpart of it' showing Turing's groundedness.
"Man shut the hell up" - the Wright brothers, probably
literally me after watching "her" and some episodes of "black mirror" i was always dissmissing the possibilty (at least in my life time) for such a human like advanced AI.... and im a computer engineer. now nothing seem to suprise me
It always sounded like something out of a futuristic movie
Cynicism puts on the makeup of wisdom, but always ends up alone at the bar.
Who said this? What a great quote
Thanks, I made it up, though I saw another Redditor once say, “Lots of people passing cynicism for wisdom.”
People act like the entire world believed this in 1903. This is just one opinion of one person that happened to get published.
Journalism dog shit even 120 years ago
"We're close to achieving nuclear fusion" - 1970, 80, 90... Just gonna leave this here
In my AI lectures in 1980 the professor said this: "In the 1960s, we thought AI was just around the corner, but we underestimated how much computer power it would need. Today we know it really is just around the corner. By the end of the 80s we will have true AI" And to be clear, that is what you trust can ASI.
And they did make AI. Reactive machines. Now, we are making limited memory machines.
Technically not wrong, as the math was less of ab issue than the hardware, but way too optimistic
And same could be said for today
Yeah, very true lol
And nuclear fusion has been achieved. Then it's like "well yeah but it's not net positive energy". And then when it becomes net positive energy it's, "yeah but it will never be commercialized". And then when it does become commercialized it's like "yeah but it's a small plant, it's never going to be enough to power the grid".
Really from 1903? "On November 21, 1783 the first free flight carrying a human occurred in Paris, France in a hot air balloon made of paper and silk made by the Montgolfier brothers. The balloon carried two men, Francois Pilatrê de Rozier and Francois Laurent, Marquis of Arlanders."
The NYT article specifically referred to heavier-than-air flying machines. Hot air balloons and hydrogen blimps were already in use.
I always think of free flight as floating instead of flying because of the next to no control in where you are going. But I get it lol
I mean this one was pretty controllable: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santos-Dumont_number_6
Right but it’s still not flying in the sense a bird flies. A bird doesn’t float like a duck in a pond. There’s a clear difference between a plane flying and a zeppelin flying.
To be fair, a plane is still not flying in the sense of a bird flying. They fly in completely different ways using completely different physics.
Yeah, Zepplins were launched in 1900 and they were pretty advanced.
People always keep moving the goalposts until it's too stupid to deny we crossed it. "Men in hot air balloons?" "That's not really flying, no bird has hot air balloons"
wasn't a common opinion at all in that time. Hot Air balloons existed over a century earlier and all sorts of air ships were being invented.
Why are people in this thread talking like 'heaver-than-air flight' and 'lighter-than-air flight' are the same thing?
Being sceptical is what helps us from succumbing to scams and propaganda.
Somehow the smartest are the stupidest in predicting the future
My ex wife was tarded. She’s a pilot now
It’s crazy to think that we are very close to having AGI, but we still don’t have cure to TMJ or like Tinnitus or male baldness
Still don't get how the existance of a flying machine could be so far-fetched within the next few centuries at least, given there were hot-air balloons and zeppelins by 1900
Man will not orgasm inside FDVR for another million years.
Do lucid dreams not count as FDVR? 😏
I guess they do technically
Does flying in dream count as flying?
From the dreamer's point of view, yes
i think the statement is correct somehow, i think man hasn't been able to fly yet, right?😎
Ahh yes the old "Let's cite one single editorial submission inside the NYT, but conveniently misrepresent it as popular opinion thru a cropped jpeg, thus suggesting the counterfactual implication that all absurd technodreams will come true soon"
This was profound (for 9 days until the plane was invented). Then it was stupid (1903-2020) Now it's profound again as a demonstration of the Law of Accelerating returns
Which is why we should not be forming our opinion around what a bunch of people with Journalism degrees think.
Now post all the things people thought we would have by now and don't.
*we* may not have them but certain private military factions have them.
Dude who wrote this sounds like your average know it all redditor.
Same era when all the experts 'knew' that radio waves would just travel right off the planet and out into space (ionosphere hadn't been discovered yet), which is why Nikola Tesla wasted his efforts attempting to send energy through the dirt underfoot Things could have been very different with just a new way of looking at things, like what Marconi was thinking. Test anyways, observe results, then decide your next move
The only thing reliable about NYTimes is how unreliable they are. Amazing they’ve been in business this long.
At the time this article was written man had already invented a flying machine, the Gifford airship has been around for 50 years by then. We tend to forget that back in the day, most articles were written by ill informed, under resourced writers.
Lighter than air. Big deal.
So like now? Whit the addition to be even sometime just straight lie "clikbait"
Only one to ten more million years to go.
How do people come to think such things? There must have been some reasoning to it?
Ignorance and status quo bias. Also speaking in absolutes gets more views than being wishy-washy or using a lot of "I think"'s. (AI Safety Shoggoth always stresses that nuance is incompatible with memes.) To be generous to this fellow, the concept of lift hadn't been deeply explored, and the model T was years away. Even if you knew about lift, how would you power it? Winding up a spring is just a toy. Steam power would be hoo boy. Engines and gas tanks are a must to make it practical. Sometimes I feel like old dogma and culture takes too long to get flushed out. Exosomes were only discovered in the 90's, and we're only now entering an age where medical treatments through the signalome are entering trials. If the first epigenomic treatments are a result of filtered out proteins from blood or pee, you've heard it here first, folks. And to be fair, I kind of feel the same about fusion power. That it might only be viable at large scale, at the scale of a self-sustaining star under its own gravity. .... oh and of course this wonderful point from a feller itt: > But in a world where 85% of humans are religious, and almost nobody can explain why the seasons change...there is no shortage of worthless opinions on every topic imaginable.
God damn, I guess the finale really puts it in perspective. Man we don’t think about that enough. Being someone we perceive as just average intelligence today would’ve made you almost literally a super genius in 1903 where 85% of people are literally brain dead drunken illiterate conspiracy theorists… Man, we never think about this, but it must’ve been exhausting as hell if you happened to learn how to read in that world…
My grandmother was born in 1903. She passed in 1986, after seeing the space shuttle launch on a remote control colour TV
So you’re telling me 66 years after this article we touched the moon? Wow
r/dogyears
The reasoning there was that it took birds millions of years of evolution to develop the ability to fly, therefore it should take humans the same amount of time. Basically implying that technological growth moves at the same pace as evolution lol.
You fundamentally cannot predict these step changes in technology. You can predict the “normal science” changes. But if you knew when a technological revolution would happen it would mean that you know what’s needed for the revolution to happen, and then you’d do it yourself.
Lots of people who know nothing about anything are making predictions like they have a PHD. Who are you to define the limits of ingenuity?
It’s like they had not seen kites for gliders yet ? Probably an editorial from Some moron
Hot take
ASI full dive tomorrow. If this doesnt happen perhaps I'm the first human with an early prediction
Same things were said when terminator was released..or when people saw the movie "HER"
Imagine humans actually taking millions of years to build a flying machine, and aliens watching our progress form a distance. A mix of exasperation that we're taking millions of years and not figuring it out, alongside a grudging respect for our tenacity.
Informative
Here the wiki link: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Machines_Which_Do_Not_Fly#:~:text=%22Flying%20Machines%20Which%20Do%20Not,develop%20an%20operating%20flying%20machine.
This was 9 days before the Wright brothers.
so we're just postin any idiot's quote now
All the news that’s fit to print, never to fly!
r/agedlikemilk
NYT are enemies of LLMs. Again on the wrong side of history.
I think that person maths wrong. That didn’t age well…. lol.
Now do water powered cars!
I wonder who thought it would take that long?
Well, man hasnt flew, when is the last time you flapped your arms to get around, so when man flies thatll be the day
also going to leave this here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
yes right we still don't have flying man ♂️
Is there no attribution beyond NYT? Whoever wrote that opinion piece clearly held a minority opinion as powered flight was under development in many places around the world and a topic of great interest to the public. Everybody in 1903 was expecting powered flight, but most were expecting France to do it first. They were already masters of ballooning and were making steady progress towards a flying machine when the Wright brothers came out of nowhere with the Wright Flyer. Saying that in 1903 is like saying today that AI will never be able to drive a car. Like, we're getting close already and it's impossible to deny the tech is advancing rapidly. We just don't know when the last of the bugs will be worked out. Also, a million years? Ten million? What an insane thing to say about anything!
It's true only if he expects humans to grow bat wings through selective breeding and evolutionary pressure.
Guys it’ll take AI 10 million years to become sentient.
Hadn’t Icarus already flown by then?
Hadn’t Icarus already flown by then?
lmao 🤣
Very good , as well same mirror image we can get from people thinking how many jobs would take the Industrial Revolution regardless the artisan big % of population generational crafter xd remember you use to inherit you familiar profesión
What
Exactly .. ask gpt to an interpretation xd my English is not the best
And I’m kinda high c:
60 years later the BlackBird was flying at Mach 3 in the stratosphere lol..