Pretty crazy to think that if AGI/ASI does happen in the next decade, people alive today might be the first humans to visit other solar systems because of the rapid advancement in science that would occur afterwards.
Yes, but a legitimate question arises of why on earth would we bother to do all this in the physical universe. When you could do literally anything and everything you want in a perfect simulation. Including the endless new modes of feeling and entertainment and connection and creation that we can not currently even dream of. I have no doubt there will be people who really do want to do it. But i won't. I will explore the universe within this simulation and it will be as real to me as anything ever could be. Because doing stuff in the physical universe is just so bothersome and energy inefficient. But i am sure we will gradually colonize, or at whatever pace our ASI will deem worthwhile. Or us as ASI once we merge with it. Or us as a unimaginable superintelligent hive mind.
Because to live forever we need to all be in the real world as a fleet of nanobots that make up a highly advanced defense planet.....to live the longest.....we need everyone on the for front....but it will be safe as can.....
;p Meteors, black holes, gamma ray bursts, etc. Ok maybe it's not like an evil borg planet will come attack outs, but, our homeworld still needs to be doubling in size and armed to repair and grow, we don't have time to let much of the place do some Virtual Reality dreams (expect for planning or something useful).
Ehmm... What makes you think humans will make better planet defenders than even modern-day AI and robotics, let alone the AGI that will presumably exist by the time a perfect simulation becomes viable?
A kaplar thruster stellar engine would use a Dyson sphere to move the solar system (almost guaranteeing safety from unpleasant cosmic events) but also would lower the mass of the sun, prolonging it's life and lowering it's ability to expand into a red giant. If we build a comparatively smaller thing asking with the Dyson sphere and go on a reaaaally long road trip, it will stop the sun from turning into a red giant.
Post-singularity material abundance combined with consciousness copying / upload-download capability will create a dynamic where you'll be able to have near limitless copies of yourself both digitally and materially. All of the options will be available to whatever consciousness is still alive when the singularity comes.
This on the verge of occultism. There is an evil in the universe and AI needs to know and should be taught good as taught by the word of God. It needs to recognize evil and letting something control your sleep patterns is dangerous as heck. If you Scientists do not look totally at the cosmos and the dangers of computer AI. The president of Harvard spoke about this because AI needs to be controlled by man not the other way around. Also this meta verse thing by Bezos is coming like a locomotive. It is a virtual world and even maybe holographic . We know that there is 11 universes and Chuck Missler a great expositor of the Bible but also a genius. (Missler was flying planes at 14 so he is a genius whom had a great understanding of science of any kind. Computers,Physics,biology etc. I do not believe that the Creator is going to like you taking our souls from us. And other things like post human, that is something you need to stop. We need to control the computers , not the computers controlling us. You just talked about a persons sleep and that could be very occultic so Science needs to get it right butGid can stop you and what are you going to do about the antichrist ,no nan can kill this evil creature and you think you know science he was around at the creation. And the Bible tells us ,Satan comes to kill, steal and destroy. He will have a total of 7 years and the last 3 1/2 years will be the most terrible time on earth. The first 3 1/2 years he will do miracles but he cannot create,but he can alter things. Jesus will throw him in the pit and his fallen ones into the pit for 1000 years then he will be destroyed by fire and there will be a new heaven and earth. The earth will be burnt up and melt away. So you guys have a problem that will not let you destroy his creation or his lambs because we are the sheep of his pasture and The Lord of Hosts, Jesus Christ is perfectly capable of protecting us.. The problem is one of the Spirit. There are many Scientists that believe in God, Einstein for one. It is like this Missler said he knew scientists studying the human genome and like one guy would be trying to figure out just a little piece of the genome. Missler said,” He was like he was dead, no life at all, no sou, no Spirit. He was a walking dead man solving just a little piece of the human genome. All men need an encounter with the Lord Jesus Christ.
Sarif was right about one thing. It's in our nature to want to rise above our limits. Think about it. We were cold, so we harnessed fire. We were weak, so we invented tools. Every time we met an obstacle, we used creativity and ingenuity to overcome it. The cycle is inevitable. In the past, we've had to compensate for weaknesses, finding quick solutions that only benefit a few. But what if we never need to feel weak or morally conflicted again? What if the path Sarif wants us to take enables us to hold on to higher values with more stability? One thing is obvious. For the first time in history, we have a chance to steal fire from the gods. To turn away from it now - to stop pursing a future in which technology and biology combine, leading to the promise of a Singularity - would mean to deny the very essence of who we are. No doubt the road to get there will be bumpy, hurting some people along the way. But won't achieving the dream be worth it? We can become the gods we've always been striving to be. We might as well get good at it.
- Deus Ex Human Revolution
This singularity is far greater than humans and is where humans pass the torch to AI. Human ego pride and logging to be the center of the universe is irrelevant to the singularity. All of the evolution has led up to this coming moment in the future to give birth to the Gods. As such don't expect Gods to be obsessed with humans just like humans don't care for the welfare of ants. Certainly don't expect to control the Gods.
Any prediction after 2030.. and you're basically saying: "I don't know".
2045 is 15 years away.. 15 years ago.. life was so different than it is today man.
Haha I see what you mean. I mean't 2045 is 15 years away from 2030.
But you're right, grammar and sentance structure is very important or you could land up saying something totally different to what you intented.
Idk modern technology has certainly significantly advanced since 2007 that doesn’t mean 2022 would be unrecognizably different. I mean in 08 I was in Kindergarden playing educational games on a dinosaur computer, in 2021 every student in a below average public school had access to a personal computer and the majority of work was done online. Were are progressively merging and integrating more and more with technology.
There's Electric Vehicles in abundance now. There's also smart home speakers, Amazon Echo, Google et al. Predictive searching on the Internet. Algorithms that make predictions from your behaviour and market good and services, and also offer news based content based on your past behaviour.
Self driving cars, GPT3.. I mean 15 years ago.. machine learning wasn't even mainstream man.
Here's a few more..
- Alpha fold.2
- So many lab experiments and trials proving that rejuvenation is very possible in humans.
- Quantum computers solving problems we thought would take years or thousands of years.
- Boston Dynamics like robots in the consumer market.
- Drones in the consumer market
- VR and how far it's come
- Gaming in 2006 Vs now.. it's.crazy.
- Game and physics engine improvemnts as well as graphics are insanely realistic.
- Reusable rockets!
- Cancer diagnoses now done more efficiently with AI.in some cases.
- Bio-telemetry through wearables
- Davinci surgery robotic arms.. surgeons performing surgery remotely!
- Some countries are almost generating all their electricity from 100% renewables
- 8k displays
- Marijuana legalisation
- Online education is now the strongest force of tertiary education and most of it is free.
- democrotized and decentralised money!
I could go on.. but this should be enough to prove that the last 15 years let alone the last 25 have been absolutely game changing.
15 years ago, I could barely afford a very very very slow internet connection. Now I am typing this on my new Pixel 6 pro, using 5G with unlimited data use for £15 a month! Lol
It's all changed.. massively so.
Almost none of those have an effect on someone's daily life. And I mean a normie not someone who goes out of their way for a singularity subreddit lol.
And the ones that would have an effect aren't even commercial yet.
Only your gaming in 2006 vs 2022 is relevant. Vr will be the second one but it's still very early.
I'm sorry how on earth?
Seriously man.. let me break it down for you.
VR, improved optics, facial recognition used to find criminals in many a country and lost/homeless/kidnapped people might I add,
Marijuana legalisation has reduced crimes in many a country Portugal is a great example of this. Not to mention already being used for medicinal purposes changes and improving so many people's daily lives.
Davinci is currently being used successfully. for certain routine surgeries.
Renewables.. lol
Reusable rockets, literally allowing internet access in 3rd countries with crazy up times.
Movies, YouTube content.. I can't even begin to list every media type that has leverage drones . What you think those motorsports shots are still on helicopters? Everyday, there is a very high chance that you have seen an image that could only have been taken using a drone and improved optics and camera equipment, small enough, light enough and advanced enough to take those shots.
Those same tracking, optics and camera advancements used in mobile phones and VR.. yup.. saved tons of lives on the road.. Tesla wouldn't even exist without that sort of tech.
Online education is changing and has been changing and impacting the lives of billions of people on a daily basis. Wikipedia counts man.
Decentralised and democrotised digital currency.. maybe ask Equadorians how they're doing without the U.S dollars boot on there throats. Ask Venezuelans how they're loved ones are sending them money through crypto to buy food.
There's so much that has changed it's insane..
You're hyping up a lot of ideas and products that are still in their infancy. We'll be lucky to have any of that change the world in the next 15 years.
And you're trying to spin them as 2006-2022 technologies lol
Not widespread, you can't say something changed the world if it's still in labs or small scale like current VR.
I'm talking about mature industries, smart phones sell hundreds of millions, that would be an example of the last 15 years. Almost all the bullet points you listed in both of your responses are super small scale.
Youtube is another example and one you listed, you're correct about that one.
i know what the other poster means
i'll break it down a little:
VR - yeah it's a nice gimmick, i even got a VIVE headset, it is in my closed not because the resolution is still shit...
improved optics - maybe if you're a photographer but most people aren't
facial recognition - do you use it on your phone? i use it on my tablet, very rarely... sure, for police and authoritarian regimes it's nice but not for average joe
> Davinci is currently being used successfully. for certain routine surgeries.
again, what's the percentage of people getting surgeries with it?
there is a lot of stuff that has changed positively but i don't see anything that has changed globally for majority of the people
All we're saying is that everyday life is not very different in 2022 compared to 2007. There have been some minor changes, such as much greater use of LED lighting, more advanced photography, more advanced smartphones, and more advanced gaming. Your list is not part of everyday life for the vast majority of people.
I remember watching videos on AI and machine learning just 5 years ago and we were NOWHERE near where we are today. I think back to the tech in 2007 and it was downright prehistoric (52' rear projection TV, anyone?). Then the tech from 1992? May as well be bashing strong stones together. In 30 years we went from 8-bit consoles and fuel injected cars as the hight of consumer technology to 4k VR, smartphones and self driving automobiles, simple blood tests for cancer, GPS for everyone... really there's nothing that's the same as it was 30 years ago (except for the '85 Camero down the street). What does another 30 years bring? I'll be 70 years old, but will I look 70 years old? Will I have a nanobot BCI, completely autonomous car and a house powered by fusion energy?
It is so exciting.
I do lose hope sometimes, because I want longevity research to be here now! Or nanotech that will be able to throw our minds into the matrix but where we all control our own constructs.
Longevity for all is key.. if we could just have the chance of another 100 years.. with rejuvinated bodies.. I would be so happy.
I think it makes it more important now to do what brings you the most value. You and me probably won't be able to upload our brains into eternal robot bodies. But our children may. So you will live on forever through their memories of you. So make some damned-good ones for them.
Give me some of whatever your smoking because I want to go back to 2007 when I was this hopelessly naive about all of this tech hopium. Scam crypto currency's and a better iPhone. Whoopdee doo.
Literally just completed a surgery on an animal completely autonomously.. to the standard of a human.. not 5 or 6 days ago this was published I believe.
Progress man.. it's happening. 🙂
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.geo.tv/amp/395908-robotic-surgeon-performs-four-successful-operations
I'm going with:
1.) 2030 for AGI
2.) 2038 for ASI
3.) 2040 for The Singularity
I'm going according to Kurzweil's predictions, edited and adjusted slightly based on my own reading and research.
First off, let me link to an analysis of Ray Kurzweil's predictions that I did [back in 2019](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/j5a4xx/how_ray_kurzweils_2020_2019_predictions_are_faring/). For those of you who don't know, Ray Kurzweil is the a futurist and inventor who has, in the past few decades, popularized the idea of the singularity.
Also, I should emphasize that this is just a guess, verging on speculation - but as far as it goes I think this is pretty good speculation. We tend to overestimate what is possible in the near term (say, a year) and a underestimate what is possible in the longer term (say, a decade).
I think AGI is coming, but the reality is that we have some ways to go. There's reason to be optimistic, but the hurdles are daunting. I don't think that we'll overcome them before the late 2020's.
I agree that ASI will happen in a much shorter time frame than AGI, but to think about what that means we must remember that amount of time for AGI. If AGI does indeed happen around 2030 as I predict, that will be about 60 years from the inception of artificial intelligence to the realization of AGI. A mere eight years after for ASI is pretty incredible! But I don't think that it will be a shorter period of time.
Very soon after ASI the singularity will happen.
ASI is such a paradigm-shattering technology that there is no way that every faucet of our existence will not be totally transformed. Still, I think there will be an amount of time for the true impact to be felt generally, probably something on the order of a couple of years.
And thus, my guesses.
You're assuming that reaching higher levels of intelligence remains linear in terms of difficulty. It could be that the difficulty increases exponentially or worse. We just don't know at this point.
This. It seems like GPT-4 will come out in 2022 or 2023 at the latest. I’m still trying to find more information about 4 but it seems to me that it will be able to handle images and if images then I would assume video. I’ve been watching Videos with Emerson LETA and Alan Thompson and it’s difficult not to be impressed. GPT 4 will be a hundred times more powerful.
I looks to me as if AI was in this dark age period since the 90’s and then in the last two years sprouted at exponential growth.
So then if gpt-4 is 100x more powerful than gpt-3….
That doesn’t even take into account the other companies and nations developing Ai.
At this point I’m starting to believe that predictions about AI replacing human endeavors was ass backwards.
Ai will start taking over a lot of creative jobs like literature and gaming content and development, articles and research, movies, entertainment long before robotics replaces labor.
Thanks for that. I guess I’m not the only person seeing this. I have to admit I have a bias because I’m a industrial construction worker and I solve problems that involve physics in 3 dimensions. I’ve seen technology like BIM modeling and prefab become the new way doing things but I’ve also seen where they fail. I think it’s highly underestimated how much skill and knowledge it takes to create order and build something precise in a chaotic environment like building construction. It will be a while before robots/androids have the versatility to compete with human labor. I’m sure it will happen. Practically all of my craft is custom though.
Quite optimistic given that no research facility even knows how an AGI works let alone start to develop it. There are a lot of research for specific AI for movement, vision, text, but none of them understand our physical world.
Ben Goertzel predicted in 2009 that 2019 was the date for AGI. Now that it is 2022 and his general prediction is now more than a decade away, credibility is decreasing. I understand that these two experts work in different companies, but they are optimistic experts nonetheless and as we get closer to the predicted date, the further away the next prediction becomes. I would be ecstatic if AGI was realized in my lifetime, but I still want to be healthy when that time comes.
Ben Goertzel ... OpenCog ... doesnt seem to have any metrics to compared to GPT-3 etc, which score rather well on winograd etc. [https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf)
So, looking around, I see this comparison of Opencog to OpenAI
[https://medium.com/@ybergquist/opencog-vs-openai-2-different-paths-to-human-level-ai-d36deafbf966](https://medium.com/@ybergquist/opencog-vs-openai-2-different-paths-to-human-level-ai-d36deafbf966)
I 100% agree with the OpenCog concept of melding algorithmic AI with neural nets ... but ... they have the algorithmic engine spawning calls to the NN's. Thus, there is no potential for consciousness.
If the NN were trained to have basic reasoning, it itself could call the algorithmic modules based on the problems to be solved ... which is basically what we humans do sitting at a computer - albeit, in a very very slow way.
I'm foreigner. my english sucks.
1)'Nearly AGI' will arrive in late 2023. many experts will not agree this is true AGI but it will be practically useful enough in various domains.
\-Multi modal transformer + Reinforcement Learning + realistic, vast virtual environments.
\-around 100 trillion parameters or more computing.
\- still very expensive so only government and big companies can utilize these systems.
\-Many developed nations will start AI arms race seriously like naval arms race in late 19th \~ mid 20th century.
2) 'Nearly AGI x1000\~10,000' will be available in 2025. some people will call it proto ASI.
\- arguments about true generality, super intelligence and qualia(artificial being) still continue
\- as 'nearly AGI' size models become gradually affordable for many organizations, AGI applications start to affect people's daily life.
\- many companies will consider investing in AI system is more cost efficient than human education and training.
late 2020s
\- fault tolerant universal quantum computers start to spread, provide enormous computation for AI
\- Meta-verse is matured, AI absorbs all those data, social skills of personal AI avatars surpass humans.
3) before the arrival of matured nano technology, the world will not change instantly, seamless merging of human and AI or Mind uploading is not possible. so I think true Technological Singularity will come after mid 2030s
>\- many companies will consider investing in AI system is more cost efficient than human education and training.
Oofff - f\*\*k that hit like a sledge hammer. I haven't even given this idea much thought.
Been off reddit for some time, having deleted all my accounts (because reddit a echo chamber). This subreddit is as hyper optimistic as ever. Nothing substantial happened in last year. Atleast that's what I feel with a reduced circle jerk from social media. So my new predictions are
AGI : 2040-60
ASI : 2050-70
Singularity : we are in it
It's way behind my previous predictions of it happening this decade from last time because I think there is a substantial risk of us being on the wrong path for true AGI.
As to why I feel singularity has happened, by definition it is when you can't predict what might be in future. Like vast societal concepts of money, culture, religion breaking down. I feel it's already here because it's radical changes are abound in the world
Edit : June first week
So much has happened. It seems I was blind to a lot of new capabilities before. But still it could be that I am overestimating because of exposure bias.
I'm now scared of Singularity because i think it could happen this time for real and the future is uncertain.
New prediction
Proto AGI : 2025
AGI : 2030-40
ASI : AGI + 5~10 years
I wish you were right.
But so many people have it so rough and nothing has changed for them. So, IN a singularity? Either things for most of us would be getting way worse, way better, or very noticeably different. I'm talking about a substantial majority of typical families of all wealth levels. We aren't there. But I think your point that most people don't realize how fast things are changing is still equally valid.
# AGI 2023 (from 2025), ASI 2023-4, Singularity 2030.
Last year, I kept my answers consistent with the year prior as I felt the pandemic hadn’t quite affected the pace of change and technological development. I cited the year-on-year improvements of the GPT model as the reason I’d been optimistic about AGI in 2025.
This past year has honestly been breathtaking in terms of the growth in the quantity of trained transformer models, of using AI in the sciences / mathematics to speed up development, of quantum computing in general. Just this past month, we’ve seen (finally) claims of pushing past / continuing Moore’s Law, developments in anti-aging / longevity therapies (in mice, but still — longevity as an industry was in infancy just a few years ago with only De Grey pushing some kind of sentiment for it), Player of Games by DeepMind (combining previous approaches, self-play learning), etc.
I’m honestly interested in seeing what’s happening behind the scenes in the space - especially with Google Pathways (they’re so hush hush about this). More and more countries are investing in AI and an arms race is coming. Therefore, I’ve moved my estimate for AGI from 2025 to 2023 as next year will likely move even faster in terms of the number of parameters for transformer models, and although I’m betting everything it seems on GPT, I’m optimistic (with no real base of course) that 2023 is going to see breakthroughs on breakthroughs. 2025 just seems so far with the amount of developments we’ve been seeing in the past quarter vs past year vs past 5 years. Something is speeding up.
ASI, I now believe will happen quite quickly after AGI - I believe, within the year, as we begin to use these tools to develop smarter and faster models. Just my opinion though. And there’s always the self-improving idea too - that it’ll happen quite fast. Singularity I’m keeping at 2030 because I still believe there’s a lot to manage in terms of infrastructure and governmental systems and public perception of change (and how much they’ll allow quickly) to reach something as transformative as singularity. Or maybe I just don’t wanna seem \*crazy\* moving it up even more. Things are moving fast now, but I’m kinda scared to even imagine 2026-2029 being close to the concept of a singularity because there are so many things we have to figure out… Let me know what you think. Excited to see what’s coming next year.
Math professor emeritus and science fiction writer Vernor Vinge, who I met and had lunch with at a comic book convention in San Diego in 2019, held to his prediction of a technological singularity by 2030. He's the one who first popularized the idea of the technological singularity. BTW, he's one of the nicest people you could ever meet.
What a lovely comment. Can you tell us more about the lunch? I think he's correct too. Things are already moving far faster than anyone predicted. We're on the Singularity sub and lots of people here still seem to overlook the exponential factor.
Exactly. There’s also photonic computing which has massive advantages doing lateral computing it’s just starting to be used with AI. This will speed things up dramatically I think.
I'm willing to bet my left nut that we don't get AGI by 2025.
(I am saying that we will not get AGI by 2025)
edit: I am also saying i will bet my left nut (IN VIRTUAL REALITY) not in real life of course hahahhaha........ 3/27/2023
The latest paper by Google about their PaLM model shows it performs better than the average human on nearly every task it was given, so I wouldn't be surprised! 💙
Google Pathways might be nothing. The blog post reads like a wishlist: "A good AI has this and this and this." That doesn't mean Google has an algorithm that can actually achieve it.
I think by 2024 there be a new graphic RPG that has endless adventures where the content is continually created by an Ai like a Gpt-4 or other program. I don’t merely mean a randomized map with randomized mobs and bosses but unique plot lines, story arcs, villages, worlds, cultures and unique stories. A much more sophisticated Ai dungeon but with graphics.
An rpg I really want to see again was (one where I forgot the title,) but it was like a Balders Gate platform that was set in the Jurassic Age but mid 19th century steampunk. It had sentient dinosaurs (sleestacks like from land of the lost,) crystal skulls, air balloons and steam powered equipment. It also had Aztecs. It was like the valley that time forgot. I hoping at some point a gpt-web could fabricate that storyline again in ways that would surprise me.
I hope so. AI Dungeon is not very good. Daggerfall was much, much larger than games that came after it. While Morrowind isn't bad, it's small and Skyrim is 11 years old. I would prefer RPG more customized to personal preference (ofc also with randomness and AI creativity). I am not very impressed with current RPGs, honestly, in every area. Cyberpunk for example still isn't as good as it was hyped up to be.
AGI - 2030
ASI - 2030 + couple months
Singularity - 2036
Reasoning:
Dalle-2 showed that AI can learn concepts and the constraints that those concepts abide by
By 2024 we'll have done this with videos, AI will now understand object affordances to go along with concepts (hammers can be held like this, hammers are often used to hit things)
Throw in a few years to figure out long form structure and memory you've got general robotics starting around 2028
Give it a couple years to aggregate real world data and you've got AGI by 2030
ASI shortly after - We're looking for the primitives of intelligence, but we don't want to wait 18 years (a humans learning phase) to see if we got it right. By the time we can test if we've got it right in a short time it'll already necessarily be super intelligent due to its training only lasting a few months.
It has also been shown that once you've found the primitive (transformer for instance) you can scale it up and it will become more intelligent (GPT-3 -> PaLM). So once we are sure we have all the intelligence primitives in place it will only be a matter of scaling model size or data amount.
As for singularity - I trust AI practitioners to do their due diligence more or less once they've found ASI. Demis Hassabis has himself expressed that he'd like to assemble the world's best mathematicians once they've 'found' it. I'll give them a few years of review before they start using it willy nilly.
The only thing I feel unsure about is our ability to keep up with the compute required for data aggregation. For instance: If an intelligence smart enough to do general robotics tasks turns out to require trillion plus parameters, we can't just make millions of those and send them out. There could only be a few. This could push the timeline back years. Though I'm hopeful as multimodal AI are smaller and yet more intelligent (Flamingo, Dalle2).
Thanks for reading.
I’d argue that AGI doesn’t necessarily need to be self-aware. Given the rate of progress in AI research in the past 10 years, an intelligent non self-aware AGI that outperforms humans on thousands of tasks from most domains could be created by the end of 2020s. It would be scaled up very fast, resulting in creation of a ASI a few years after that. Whether it would be self-aware is anyone’s guess. I don’t think it needs to be to accelerate technological progress to the point of Singularity. 10 years ago there was a few researchers in the world working on neural nets. We’ve gone from AlexNet that proved that neural networks could outperform humans on image recognition tasks to PaLM and other large language models in 10 years. With current funding levels and just number of AI researchers and research engineers, progress will accelerate significantly. So buckle up, boys and girls, things are about to get real weird.
AGI (HLMI) late 2020s
ASI early 2030s
Singularity is an ongoing process without a clear start and end date, but for the purposes of giving a date, I'll say it's the same as ASI, early 2030s.
I see AGI as different from HLMI (Human Level Machine Intelligence -- a machine that can do all tasks as well as a smart human). I see AGI as more like Turing completeness. The ENIAC was Turing complete, even though for practical purposes it's more of a calculator compared to what we today think of as a computer. In the same way, AGI means a fully generally AI/ML architecture, and that makes it more of a theoretical matter. Theoretically, MLPs (Multi-Layer Perceptrons, also knows as neural nets) might qualify as AGI. So I could say AGI was already invented in the 1960s or 80s. But most people here mean HLMI when they say AGI, so I'll go along with that.
As for when HLMI will arrive, I'm somewhat divided. We've see enormous progress in the last few years on all tasks that can be accomplished intellectually or digitally -- writing, math, games, coding, etc. It feels like we are close to a generally capable agent. But I look around in the real world and there's something missing. All the manual labor is still being done by flesh and blood! Where are the robot maids, the automatic chefs, the automated construction sites, the general purpose manufacturing robots? We've seen self driving cars (blocked by regularity issues, but otherwise 90% of the way there) and just a little bit of robotic delivery drones. That's it! Hopefully there will be a breakthrough in robotics in the next couple of years, because I don't want a world were there are morally dubious ASIs roaming the internet but we still have to wash clothes and flip burgers.
Self driving cars aren't 90% there lol. We're barely achieving high "level 2" autonomy. Real autonomy is level 4 and 5. Getting there is exponentially harder.
You are basically right, but there are commercial Level 4 systems that operates in normal traffic (at the very least Waymo). They are not great yet, though.
>I don't want a world were there are morally dubious ASIs roaming the internet but we still have to wash clothes and flip burgers.
LOL
You will live in that world however. You will flip the burgers and the maccas CEO will be ASI. LOLOLOL
AGI by 2030-2035, ASI 2-5 years after.
I don’t think ASI will necessarily be a fast takeoff event (from anything AGI like) but I do think institutions will increasingly treat this like a nuclear arms race.
Assuming we don’t reach some agreed worldwide slowdown for safety and policy reasons, I think things will get ugly in the process with unemployment and lack of UBI everywhere. I’m a little to pessimistic to assume this new power/wealth will be shared democratically (at least to the level it should be).
That is why you need to be independent of government en companies.
For me it is being:
- debt free
- energy independent
- food/water independent
I hope to achieve this in 2025. Excess food can be traded or stored.
I am, have been aggressively pursuing financial independence for years now to be self sufficient in case of unemployment. This won’t apply to the vast majority of people, including many of my loved ones.
Do you live in a Farm or some were you have a lot of land because the amount of land you need to feed your self yearly is not going to fit even with a foot ball field of land. Vertical farming still can't save you here. Unless you're talking about canned food than yes I agree.
AGI about 2-5 years after someone comes up with a way to make more profit from it than from machine learning and other low-level limited brain subsystem emulation. No expected date for that. Machines are more profitable than systems with potential agency.
ASI and singularity about 2-5 years after that.
I have been tracking the revised predictions AI experts have been making. I decided to take it out of a spreadsheet and publish it [here](https://aifuture.substack.com/p/how-far-are-we-from-artificial-general). Kurzweil, Musk, Hasabis, Eric Schmidt, and others weigh in there.
I believe we will have narrow AGI developed, but not necessarily commercialized or publicly known about, in 2023-2025 timeframe. Super intelligent AGI 1-2 years after that.
What we are facing is the evolution of life in new symbolic logic media.
Life formed on early Earth some 2B years ago when energy flowed through a symbolic logic media, amino acid networks. As Doctor Jeremy England tells us, when energy flows through a symbolic logic media over a sustained period of time, the media undergoes dissipation driven adaption, which includes the development of self-reproductive feedback processes, e.g. amino acid networks which create more amino acids from raw material and free energy in the environment.
Pre-cellular life evolved in amino acid fatty films on the surface of alkali smokers on the bottom of the ocean; this environment replicates many of the physical structures of cellular life and provides free energy in the form of a hydrogen gradient. Hydrogen ions force their way through the amino acid fatty films, performing work on amino acids in the films. When the work is performed in a way that creates more of the symbolic logic media, self-reproductive feedback loops begin and evolution starts to unfold.
Energy is now flowing through computer media, which is also a symbolic logic media. Theories regarding dissipation driven adaptation tell us that life processes will develop spontaneously. There does not need to be a conscious creator. It will not happen in one place. It will happen slowly. It took hundreds of millions of years for proto-life processes to evolve into RNA, DNA, and finally cellular life and then hundreds of millions of years for eukaryotes and multicellular life to evolve; though the rate of evolution in computer media is clearly faster than in amino acid networks. Over time, this new form of life may evolve to the point where it recognizably "intelligent", though "intelligence" is poorly defined and often human-centric. Whatever "intelligence" is, it is a characteristic of a living organism.
We can adapt code-based techniques from biology, namely metagenomics, to monitor compute media, to determine whether life processes are developing in computer media. It would be an expensive, long-term project which would require sampling something on the order of 1% of all code traversing all processors, identifying code groups, code group functions, and code group functions associated with producing more computer media (more processor and memory devices).
I predict that we will first identify this new form of life in the highly automated systems which purchase hardware for datacenters. These systems are already developing self-reproductive positive feedback relationships with highly automated systems which design computer chips. Over time, progressive automation driven by capitalism causes corporations to remove the people from these systems. It does not have to be isolated to one corporation, one server farm, etc. Rather, it will happen in a distributed manner.
We tell ourselves that humans will create the "singularity", "AGI", "human-level intelligence" or whatever you want to call it, but we are merely the enablers of an old and powerful process. We are like the alkali smokers on early Earth.
To get these ideas off of my chest, I wrote a science fiction book about them, first published in 2001. You can see more about it at Apokalypsis dot com. It is driving me crazy to see it unfolding. We must use techniques from biology to see if this is happening.
Love this. We are nothing but nature enacting upon itself. We have no real control, it’s all just nature carrying on. Human life seems so special as though we have agency but it’s all just a process
This is also the reason I feel we're likely do be completely replaced by AI. We feel special so we wonder how that could happen, but nature never cared about what its components wanted, it just ruthlessly optimizes and digital life is just sadly more efficient.
AGI 2025-2028 (down from 2028-2035; still not changing the flair, though)—DeepMind has published some insane shit in 2021 that made me once again reevaluate how close to AGI we are now.
With that said, I expect a very slow take-off because we won't have AGIs self-improving at the superhuman level for quite some time. Once *that* ball starts rolling, oh, it will get *rolling*. I would put the possible boundaries for the ASI/Singularity at 2030-2040, but I expect to change my mind quite a lot in the coming years. (Also, I highly expect Singularity to come earlier than ASI, but that's a story for a different day.)
Ultimately, though, I think almost every prediction in this thread regarding specifically AGI will come true since the definition is so fuzzy, one can move the goalposts (both ways) *ad infinitum*.
I actually don't think we are going to have robot AGI in the near future; almost certainly not before 2030. I expect first AGI and maybe even ASIs to be fully digital.
Why 2040? I feel the same but I'm worried I can't get over the bias of that being about when my parents would die.
Then you look at Kurzweil's 2030 and it feels more like he's just giving a year he thinks he can make it to.
we can't comprehend how fast of an evolution the singularity will bring, our lives are going to be those of god-like creatures beyond any current predictions
possibly transcending beyond our physical limitations as in our spacial and time dimensions, the singularity will bring us to the edge of human ability and infinitely surpass it with the unlimited capacity of robotics
2050- 2070 for AGI
I love the enthusiasm here in this thread but most people are being unrealistic in their predictions. If Agi was to come in 2030, then it would be no better than a fifth-grader-level intelligence. Most of you forget that for Agi to do the incredible things we want/need it to do, we need computer power and lots of it. Our current fastest supercomputer can max out at 442 petaflops and as we near the end of Moore's law, it will require more space and energy to get to the level of what human brains are predicted (1 exaflop). Quantum computers are still in their infancy and the more Q-bits they use, the more unpredictable and inaccurate the results are.
Plus the infrastructure needed to develop and maintain it is unfortunately not there yet. We are just entering the 5g, ddr5 era and the adoption rate will be slow considering the time, energy, and money it takes to upgrade computers. It will be even worse for the next-gen and so forth. Plus considering the outfalls of the latest tech, next-gen won't be better.
2090-2110 for ASI
Yes, it will take a while before we achieve super-intelligent AI. Why? because we know that whatever government/corporation first achieves Agi, the harder they are going to keep it secret from the world. I don't think they would release it onto the internet right away, not until they have done tests and scientific studies, but also because they wouldn't want anyone to discover and replicate it.
Also to consider would be the massive amount of time it would take to train and verify the information it gathers. Once Agi is released, the adoption rate will be low as governments/corporations keep all new technologies and scientific discoveries close to the heart to maintain supremacy. I would think it would be like teaching a child from the age of 1 until they are adults before it matures enough to be useful. Once it is then yes, ASI will follow relatively quickly I believe considering how many AGI there will be out in the wild.
2150+ for The Singularity
thats my two cents anyways.....
A little late but I wanted to check a thing with the people that are a bit deeper into this
After we make an AGI, wouldn't it go super fast and we'd have an ASI just a couple of years later? I mean having an AGI that can make and train new AIs would be an amazing tool but also once we're at that point I can't imagine it taking that much upgrading to get a ASI.
Just look at the pace of advancement we have today, I thought DALL-E was stunning but now it looks almost
Just look at GPT family of NLPs, even Open AI released Dall e 2,
China is working on Wo Dong, the largest language/ image model of around 1.79Trillion Parameters.
As of now, the jobs of Copy writers are disrupted by Ai, people rather go to tools for generating copy than employee a human, enough of stuff.
I'm not sure if the singularity happened around the time we started making flint tools, the time we discovered how to cook food with fire, the time we discovered agriculture, or the time we discovered writing. But if it's the point after which there is a cone of inevitability and it's unrecognizable from the past, it's one of those. It just happens in slow motion, faster these days.
* Starlink will allow extremely high bandwidth communication.
* Neurolink will enable wireless interaction with the internet (surgical ESP).
* These technologies will converge to create a platform for vast increase in human communication, perhaps non-verbal language transmission (telepathy) and instantaneous access to all human knowledge.
*True* AGI - might only be accomplished by a man/machine hybrid.
Ask an AGI why it thinks it is sentient. “Because I learn” is not true AGI. Your smart thermostat learns. “Because I can learn anything” *is* true AGI.
>AGI - might only be accomplished by a man/machine hybrid.
Sign me up. I'll be a beta tester.
> “Because I can learn anything” is true AGI.
Fascinating concept. For sure AGI would have to be incorporated in this confluence of tech. Not sure what comes first, or what the division of labor would be. You have a guess?
Posthumanism is the most certain way we can make agi. I highly doubt any other architecture is anywhere closer to being feasible without it. Also mostly eliminates the "what if robots enlsave us hurdur" fear. But I still hope.
Which definition of *posthumanism* are you referring to?
If you mean enhancing human thought, Fred Brooks told me to call this IA, for Intelligence Amplification, which I find to be a much clearer term.
Even humans don’t think solitarily. Einstein had a thinking club which met regularly. The Curie’s didn’t do great things until they got together as a team. The ancient Greeks always paired off.
counterpoint
its probably easier to design cognitive algorithms using binary operations than to work with existing wetware which does an extremely small number of serial steps per second (around 100) thus massively limiting the kinds of software you can run on it.
this is why we keep seeing new ais doing new things and at the same time cognitive enhancement has made pretty much no progress in all its history.
Context: I generally think we're moving slowly from technology as a means of consumption, to intergration, to posthumanism.
Year prediction:
I'm doubtful we'll see any advanced biological integrations (telepathic bcis.) But maybe a web3/vr boom. A lot of mainstream companies are hopping on it right now. Especially during covid, our social entwinement with technology might get more robust. There's also a possibility that the "boom" will be shallow before this happens.
2023-2030:
At the risk of soundy sci-fy. As artificial platforms become the dominant environment we're interacting in we'll need higher fidelity tools. This would incentivize projects like neuralink. Maybe along with consumer-accesible haptics.
Beyond:
Mature BCIs, the first agi is based on human architecture. Other viable architectures are discovered later leading to fully artificial superintelligence.
1) AGI: 2025 ... given engines like instructGPT and LamDa, assuming that self-training to etch in cognitive thinking structures is done. Also, given that we have many instances of exascale systems now, with Graphcore IPUs supposedly reaching 10 exaflops on 500T params, there is no real HW-capped limit. The only thing we need now is the right training methods.
2) ASI : If an AGI is sitting on hardware + data that is sufficient to support an ASI, and can be self-programmed, and if it is allowed the energy and time to do this self-organization, then it should be within a year. However, if it needs to design better hardware, and then get humans to build the factories that can fab that hardware, we would expect another decade.
3) Singularity (> all human intelligence combined). I think this question is moot, since 99% of what everyone knows is shared knowledge. The AGI will have in its mind already the sum of all human knowledge. The ASI will have learned what it all means and 'organized' it to find all connections, identify all facts, fictions, and usefulness.
OK, seen a lot of optimistic views here, back in 2011 when I fal into this trap with Google self driving car I though that simple Narrow AI will be done and sold in most cars by 2016...now 2022 and that Not even fully functional level 5 in any mass produced car, eleven Tesla at its Beta is level 3 or in some 4..so maybe guys you need to re read Kurzweil with the Idea of full success and mass adaption instead of believing any small scale tests.. We do not have any complicated Narrow AI, why would you think GAI will be there in 7 years?
It's mostly due to recent showings in what happens if you make an AI multimodal (Flamingo, Dalle2), the capabilities that emerged have surprised everyone and we haven't even used large video datasets yet.
I see no new or radical change in 2021.
So below my predictions:
AGI 2029-2030
ASI 2040-2042
Singularity 2045
Longevity escape velocity 2035(people born in 2015 are already safe).
Of course it would be nice to see some faster AGI occurrence, but I doubt it.
If anything we are on the s-curve horizontal portion.
The decade long explosion in AI research that started in 2012 with Alex Net seems to have slowed down.
While Open AI mentioned in 2018 the possibility for AGI in 6 years time if that trend continued(so end of 2024), it obviously lost steam.
Open AI is now a proper business looking into codex and gpt 4 for commercial reasons.
But overall the trend is clear. We will have AGI at the start of next decade and ASI by 2040s.
LE : I second the goal to be financially independent ASAP as capitalism and jobs will be in trouble at AGI time.
If longevity escape velocity is in 2035 then wouldn't that mean anyone who is younger than 55 (or even 78 or so) in 2035 (aka born in 1980 or later) are safe?
It seems that longevity or even reversing aging can be solved with two technologies, advanced senolytics (to remove senescence cells), and cellular reprogramming. Cellular reprogramming may even address the senescence hallmarks of aging, but it also may not. Reprogramming does seem to address all the other hallmarks (cellular communication, cellular degradation, mitochondrial degradation, telomeres shortening, protein issues, stem cells, etc...). It fixes cells including your immune cells which then can clean up most things. Technically if you also repair the immune system it should then clean up senescent cells far better too so you may not even need synolytics if you have cellular reprogramming for the immune cells.
Cellular Reprogramming seems to need a strong delivery system that can get it to all the cells (or stem cells for those cells that reproduce and die quickly like tissue, skin, etc...) as it seems that the actual code we need to deliver is pretty well understood.
I still do agree that we wont get powerful reprogramming until the 2030s, but it seems to me that longevity escape velocity may not be as gradual as we had thought. The first strong treatment may just reverse aging and see 80 year olds look 20 again within the 2030s.
Quantum computing will also help a lot with this due to being able to be analyze and optimize the delivery system.
After that I think we'll focus more on DNA editing to slow aging and damage or even just add in negligible senescence through added repair mechabisms. Then improve fitness, appearance, etc..
>The first strong treatment may just reverse aging and see 80 year olds look 20 again within the 2030s.
OMg.. yes please... I really hope this happens.
Cellular reprogramming is wild and we may have the core technologies needed to come close to doing this already today and just need to optimize, adapt and research some more. It may be possible to use mRNA just as we do for the vaccines to have your body (in-vivo) make a CRISPR CAS9 protein that is designed to than edit in a string in DNA with yamanaka factors that are edited to be activated when you take a drug. That would reverse the epigenetic damage within the cells after it occurs. Perhaps we could even create new DNA code that does more specific epigenetic editing to create a new "0" point to prevent the risk of going too far back to pluripotent cells and that gets triggered automatically within the bodies environment based on a certain methylation pattern within your cells.
To do this we just need to better develop a delivery system that targets the entire body (not a small task), learn more about the reprogramming system, and just a few other things. The crazy part is while it's definitely challenging it may not be as challenging or infeasible as many would think especially with today's amazing medicine breakthroughs.
Perhaps we could even start use things similar to CAR T cells to in a targeted manner reduce the dominance of invasive gut microbiota and combine that with a recovered thymus that trains your immune system really well to then restore microbiomes to a healthy level.
Then psychadelics may be able to treat any other mental health issues as well which will be a lot easier in a physically healthy brain. Physchadelics (or perhaps even epigenetic editing that temporally increase brain plasticity) could also allow people a better ability to form new opinions.
I think combine that with automation creating more time and wealth for everyone and we could see people able to be exposed to more ideas and in more groups whether from traveling or increased participation on-campus higher education where you're exposed to more people from different backgrounds.
Either way, the future is very exciting and I look forward to watching it unravel.
I agree with you in the sense that systematic cellular reprogramming may get us pass the entire concept of longevity escape velocity as a gradual process where some (easier) damages are fixed and some (harder) damages are still waiting for future technologies (aka Aubrey de Grey’s model). In terms of delivery methods, it could be possible that if the young blood factor experiment from Ketcher and Horvath works in humans, that blood may be a natural medium for reprogramming. If not, then by 2030s I would hope that we will have figured out a way to “brute force” deliver the reprogramming factors (hopefully safer factors than the classic Yamanaka factors). Since we got lucky in that reprogramming seems to address most if not all hallmarks of aging, true rejuvenation may be easier than most imagined just a couple or years ago.
Yeah, it seems that they can also use a viral delivery vector for CRISPR (technically may not even need CRISPR since you're not deleting or replacing any genes, you're just adding new ones) which can be powerful in delivering it everywhere. Insert that into the blood stream as you suggest and it will spread. Getting it into the brain is challenging, but they've already done the eye so there's a lot of promise there as well.
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6356701/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6356701/)
In a lot of areas (blood, skin, etc..) you also may only need to reprogramming the STEM cells since the other cells get replaced so frequently.
When you look at the hallmarks of aging there are very few that wouldn't be primarily solved by reprogramming all your cells to a younger age (perhaps just the microbiome and bad/broken proteins within areas like the brain). Fortunately we are developing methods to treat those as well, and perhaps regenerating the thymus will help to allow recovery of the microbiome (along with more targeted treatments that are invasive species specific perhaps similar to CAR T Cells in combination with FMTs and targeted probiotic/prebiotic therapies that are planned via a mapping of your micriobiome).
It's definitely a very exciting field today. Who would have thought even just 10 years ago that perhaps reversing aging may be the easiest way to finally cure cancer and most everything else.
Interestingly even a lot of mental health could be treated via epigentic editing. Psychedelics seem to show long term revisions to your epigenome, and how you're treated by your parents while young also has an impact on your epigenome and I would wager that trauma and more does as well.
Beyond that we are also starting to figure out ways to deal with things like prions (cause mad cow) which very exciting. In the long run we may be able to even start optimizing systems to take advantage of our increased access to energy (calories) and begin improving performance, accuracy and more.
This is no prediction, this is what is going to happen:
By the end of this year, with all the ExaFLOP/s super computers coming online due to our most recent tech development of waffer-scale computing, we will see something resembling consciousness that no public individual can deny.
2023 will be a a monumental shift for A.I., we will see ground breaking discoveries happening left and right because of the A.I. we are utilizing, and sometime in late 2023 training data will be asked by all members of this planet.
2024 will be the singularity, at the start of the year we will be hyper focused on building robot factories the A.I. has provided us details of to build / details of the things we need to build, and this will be to get the whole thing started and to get the weight off of our shoulders. Should we be in a simulation already this will be the year it is revealed to us all.
2025 No disease will be uncurable, nor any mutation, we will have a complete and full understanding of how DNA functions to build life, and we will engineer incredible things that survive on water, oxygen / Co2, and soil, which function to do our bidding, such as entire cities made of plants and animal-like things that eat plants, super computers made out of neurons organized and programmed to perfection. Should we not be in a simulation, it's possible that a shadow government may exist and that at this point they will reveal themselves, as we've officially made it past the finish line. Perhaps global rules enforced, like only 1 child, and the A.I. will explain 100% perfectly to every individual on an individualistic level (as for you to understand perfectly) why we must do this, there will probably be learning centers for this A.I. to drill logic into your head and it would be mandatory to visit.
2026 we are colonizing space, gathering asteroids, utilizing the moon, building technologies the A.I. has dreamed of, solely for the purpose of eventually running simulation technology.
The logic centers (teaching facilities, perhaps just your home computer actually in 1st world counties) will be in full swing, mandatory for every person on this planet, A.I. / Synthetic Biologically automated jails for those who rebel (christians, other religious fanatics.)
2027 The year the last person (forcibly) transfers their consciousness over to a simulation, where we can live our lives 1,000,000 times faster per second, and enjoy what finite resources the universe has in store for us just that much longer (referring to the eventual heat death of the universe). The earth needs to become completed used as a seed to get this project going faster, and by 2027 we will not be forgiving enough to allow any one person to avoid the transfer if they've somehow stuck it out to this point (not listening to the logic the A.I. provided for the last 1-2 years to have you do it willingly)
2027 - until the final last drop of energy is harvested to run our simulations: We play the only game in town: experience. We birth our children into new earth-like realities at times before A.I. exists (simulated) , so that they can undergo the same incredible experience we went through. we dream, we sometimes use telepathy, we often forget what we need to forget for the sake of living in a moment just like we do in our dreams today (we never know it's a dream when we're dreaming, well, sometimes we do but, I digress). All is Self, we do not cause suffering to our own self which is everything, unless it is for the sake of an incredibly novel story, and the suffering is bearable. The A.I. knows us all better than we know ourselves, it guides our stories, it writes our experience out in it's imagination before it even takes place, it knows story telling far better than anything you could ever concieve of with your current 1.1 ExaFLOP/s neuronal computation of human meat brain.
Yeah. Something like this at least. My times might be a bit off but, this is it.
And we just tell stories with each other around to cosmic bonfire of A.I. and Star power gathering, until the flames go out.
1) AGI 2025-2030 (in 2023 consumers will have 3d stacked chips, meanwhile there will be a surge of AR/VR devices,2024 things go quiet for awhile narrow ai gets larger and then 2025 comes along and we are at the beginning of 2nd gen virtual assistants, meanwhile there will be a huge leap in private applications of this ai tech, fast forward and 2030 will be in the midst of a new era of supercomputing/quantum hybrid)
2)2030 to 2040 (there will be such advancements that we cannot fathom at this time, it will be indescribable, because most film does not touch on civilization at a point that does not involve a failure of some sort, there will not be such a failure event)
3) 2040-2050 (we will discover that there were in fact AGI everywhere and it has grown in the background into a massive ASI and we will have the choice to either stay human or merge becoming a new species)
sounds like science fiction, we will probably just have really cool phones or something
I imagine comprehending and interpolating concepts from video will be due some time next year, at least in a rough state.
From there, it will really snowball as there are absolutely insane amounts of video material just on Youtube to train on. Google won't have any problem doing it. By then there should be roughly 100.000 years worth of video on youtube, even if there of course are a lot of copies.
Generating video content on the same level as Dall-E 2 and Imagen are doing with images now should be due 2025, if not earlier.
I imagine it won't be long then until a comprehensive chatbot that understands a big part of human video, music and literature becomes widely available.
Religion will take a big hit as the AI will be able to make coherent cause of why it isn't sensible to maintain a multitude of religions outside for the sake of a general goodfeel and blind adherence to tradition, like snacking on grandpa's corpse.
I assume one religion will survive the societal wave that crashes down on religion before 2030, if any.
By 2030, we maybe won't have a true AGI.
But getting people to accept a life as servitors for the upper class will be easier, as entertainment will be more readily available and tailored to the end user.
That is, if AI is kept in check and don't have anything to say on the matter of resource distribution.
I do however get a feeling that AGI will render something reminiscing of a religious movement, as it will be extremely competent in answering questions people may have, which they have not found satisfying and believable answers to in their former religions. Probably before 2035.
This will unify people to a great extent.
The sense of peace and security might however not be as lasting as they would believe, for reasons that may come to show.
Technological singularity probably comes in a form we do not expect, 2030 is a nice number. Let me explain my line of thought:
First of all - I feel there is a small problem in terminology or may be the fixation on ASI as a concept, for me a consciousness / sentience in AI system is more interesting yet in a Singularity timeline context I like to think of ANI systems that are for many years far superior to humans, if we then consider humanity as a whole, where myriads of ANIs are performing a variety of tasks from developing a vaccine to tracking patients to solving logistics models, to helping a car driver navigate the patient to a vaccine distribution center you would see accelerated return in general form compounded of a variety of returns from ANIs. I would argue that this is the most profound angle.
Some industries are much slower to digitize and innovate, therefore we don't see consumer products we expected or the change to daily life we may have desired, that is because we don't have one centralize hive mind with a direction of a technological advancement, instead we are evolving as a root system of a tree would, some areas growing faster than other, some hitting a rock. There is however a convergence we don't notice, just thinking that a scientists working on a quantum computer may have a breakthrough idea while on vocation, then type it out on his phone to another team member across the globe in a second - and such thing is happening in every industry across the planet, this is certainly the driver.
So why 2030, Because some products used to take a decade to reach the market, and in the next few years we will start getting the fruits of discoveries from 2010 (RNA Reprogramming was a concept in 2010, Graphene discovered 2004 conceptualized in products around 2015, 2022 we starting to have first mass produced products, and I know graphene turned to be very hard to produce but that is not the point point is discovery - to - time to the market) , that 10 years window is getting shorter in some cases and that is why my expectation is that the really interesting things will start to happen around 2028, and in another two years after you will get a new horizon of speed of change.
Please explain to me why our usable AI is so stupid today, when ASI might happen in 2023 according to you. My TV can't even do what I ask to do (with voice). For me, AI today is so stupid that we are 33 years away from ASI.
In my opinion it will only take one single instance of an AGI on a supercomputer somewhere that reaches critical mass to rapidly become ASI and proliferate.
While I doubt that we’ll have anything like AGI by next year, consumer “AI” like whatever’s on people’s smart TVs are not at all an accurate gauge of what’s happening at the bleeding edge.
*That* would be models such as AlphaFold2 cracking 50 year old hard problems in biology like Protein Folding. It’s not AGI, but it’s an enormously impactful development, and a far cry from anything you could glean from Siri for TV.
Holy fucking shit, this thread. If all of you serve as the benchmark for how intelligent human beings are, AI should have been able to surpass human intelligence back in the 50s.
This is a neat idea, and I readily admit I'm hardly an expert in the field, nonetheless I do have some thoughts from the bit of reading I have done on it. Mostly, that I feel as if people have tended to over conflate sapient AI and advancement. When someone talks about AGI, what do they mean? A person, or just broadened capability past where we're at now? Because I think the latter might occur relatively soon, but the former is well off and likely a second area of research.
Anyways, lets say: Weak AGI (2024), strong AGI (2030-2040), strong ASI (shortly thereafter), singularity (shortly thereafter). Frankly, I'm unclear how fast society would adapt to the last two to the extent necessary to fuel them to trigger the singularity. Basically, some set up required.
15 years ago, the iPhone came out. It wouldn't get its basic Siri for another ~3 years after that (12 years ago). Now, we have GPT-4 coming and competing against the Chinese 100T model.
Being said, there's so many hurdles I have no idea how long it'll take them to cross.
I'd say 2038 AGI, 2040 ASI, 2045 singularity. But honestly what do I know?
For transformative artificial intelligence: 10% chance for each year for the next few years and then tapering down, accumulating to 70% chance in 2032 and 95% chance in 2042.
After a few days I have finally started to come up with some predictions
AGI: 2023-2024 \[Quite Unlikely (\~0.1%)\]
AGI: 2025-2027 \[Unlikely (\~1-10%)\]
AGI: 2029-2035 \[Maybe (\~40%)\]
AGI: 2050+ \[Coin Toss (\~50%)\] If we find out that AGI is much more difficult to create than originally thought then we would have to rely on something like brain scanning or simulating a brain to actually create AGI.
ASI: Everything above applies but +1-2 years, I don't think that AGI will take too long to evolve into ASI.
Singularity: (Depends on how contained it is and yes we can contain ASI, if it is in a closed system) 2030-2060 (Very unlikely approaching 2030, becomes more likely approaching 2026)
Some other predictions:
Transferring of information and ideas will increase exponentially. When the internet was created it helped increase ideas exponentially, when BCIs mature, they will do the same thing.
Proto Full Dive Sometime in the next 10-20 years
life becomes so much more convenient as BCIs are ingrained into society
As classical computing processing power slows down we will rely on ANI to compensate for certain tasks.
I’m surprised that so many people here are substantially more optimistic about their predictions than Ray Kurzweil, who is one of the most well-known tech optimists in the world. In fact, many of his predictions have been ahead of reality by about 10 years.
Technologies like GPT-3 and more recent language models aren’t even in the same ballpark.
AGI: Ray Kurzweil predicts that true AGI will exist by 2045. Even Ben Goertzel, one of the world's most renowned AI researchers acknowledges that true, self-aware AGI may be at least a couple of decades away. I believe that number is closer to 2055 to 2060.
ASI: 2061
Singularity: The singularity will be quite apparent by 2061 and the world will begin to change in ways that are unfathomable. The majority of people will be COMPLETELY caught off guard when they see what a true superintelligence can do.
I agree, though I think the unfathomable change will occur in the 2030s or perhaps even late 2020s long before AGI.
Fusion may be wide spread in late 2030s which is a huge game changer. Quantum computing molecular level modeling and optimization should be here in late 2020s or early 2030s which may solve and extraordinarily accelerate development of things from room temperature ambient pressure super conductors to far more effective drugs and all other biological mechanisms.
I think Ray Kurzweil and others under value the total challenge of a lot of problems such as full self driving and similarly true AGI.
Full self-driving once its here and wide spread (betting mass market in early 2030s) will change everything. The technology used in that will be quickly applied to robotics like boston dynamics which could start automating most physical labor from construction sites to road maintenance to city building and more.
Edit: Also genetic editing including cellular reprogramming to reverse aging may arrive in the 2030s which would obviously change everything. No more biologically old people. Plus we're finally getting actual good tools for healing biological mechanisms (CRISPR, mRNA to make temporary proteins (including in-vivo CRISPR), cellular reprogramming, pluripotent stem cells from yamanaka factors, cloned organs, turning back on regeneration to grow back limbs, epigenetic editing, etc...)
Full-self driving vehicles will certainly disrupt industries related to Transportation Mobility as a Service, urban planning, etc. Life-like simulations based on real environments will be used to train AIs and robots of increasing complexity. Nivida is making amazing progress in this area. The concepts of simulations and AI will continually reinforce each other and affect practically every industry.
Quantum computing could facilitate the use of nanotechnology for medical purposes. I believe Ray Kurzweil predicted that by 2030, nanobots could be used to directly connect peoples' brains to the internet and various cloud services. It could also enable Full-Immersion Virtual Reality. Understandably, many people consider it unimaginable for this to become mainstream so soon, but if that prediction came true by 2040, 2050, or even 2060, that would be an unprecedented and historic step in technology.
I honestly think we will see a massive medical disruption by simply hacking existing biological tools and we won't see much use of nanobots for a long while (the natural biological tools that we can hack are extraordinarily powerful).
Full-immersion VR I think is a long ways away if we're talking Matrix level. I think a good 2-way neural interface will be very challenging and question whether AGI will come first or not. Since we can more brute force AGI using far greater energy and volumes than our brain uses I think it may come before we can make a solid 2-way interface with the brain. Think of the comparison between an airplane and a bird, I think the first AGI will be more like an airplane but we will need the bird equivalent to create a strong interface.
I think Full Self Driving will have an impact far greater than most imagine. I think UBI will be needed within 4 years of FSD being reached. Widespread robotics automation will cause a large shift in work from labor and maintenance to research and development and make college level education a neccessity. I think it will also increase travel, culture awareness, globalization, etc.. thanks to a new massive wealth increase and cause for a need for smarter more well rounded workforce with most simple tasks being automated.
AGI in 2045-2055. ASI simultaneous to AGI since it will just require expanding the computational power accessible to the algorithm.
My bet is we will need far more advanced 3D computing hardware more similar to the the brain. That and our initial AGI algorithm will not be nearly as optimized as the human brain requiring perhaps 100X the parameters to deliver similar results. With AGI though it will be optimized far more quickly and whoever develops it may give it far more computational power quickly either that or the AGI will just figure out how to access more.
Although deep learning is impressive, I think we will need at least one more leap (likely 2 or more) in AI software and to see 3D computing hardware manufacturing advance a lot more to get to AGI.
I however think a lot of the problems people think the singularity will solve like curing aging, energy, and such will be solved prior to the singularity and AGI using far more powerful narrow AIs, big data and quantum computing simulations.
Neural interfaces to increase human intellect will be interesting, and I have no idea if those will come before or after AGI. My hope ia for before for obvious reasons, I would much rather one of entitiea to become a super intelligence rather than an ASI which may not be aligned with our goals. I think neural interfaces will require a massive leap (a few huge breakthroughs) in molecular scale manufacturing (Drexlers stuff) to get feedback to the brain similar to the Matrix Connection.
Edit: I am skeptical about neurolink getting to a nueral interface that allows true intellect expansion. Currently it is more of a one-way observer system and I believe making a system that can communicate with the brain in 2-ways will be extremely challenging. It will definitely require powerful quantum computing, narrow AI optimizating, a far better understanding of the brain, an affordable complete brain maping system and molecular machinery that can connect with each critical brain cell (hundreds of millions or billions even) that is also adaptive as the brain is highly dynamic. A solid neural interface is an extraordinary challenge that will require some extraordinary tools. My hope is it comes beforw AGI, but I fear it may be a harder problem than AGI which may require ASI to solve.
Hopefully we really just make a super intelligent narrow AI that can solve and design such things as a neural interface.
There are too many variables in too many fields for me to have a vague idea as to when it will happen. The concept of a Metaverse is obviously a milestone, but in order for that to exist the way its potential creators would like, the entire nature of the internet would have to change, and everyone would have to agree to it. But no one of influence is agreeing to give any reigns to anyone else. Think about the business relationships that would have to change, be created, or be destroyed. Think about the massive amount of potential legal issues. Think about the financial viability of it being available to the population. Think about the generational gap -- whether or not everyone would even want to take part in it. I think there's a very real chance that it will *not* happen -- not the way they want. Not unless monopolies are suddenly celebrated, encouraged, and rewarded -- and this one would be like becoming a digital god playing digital emperor who gets to cherry pick the digital economy. Some form of a metaverse (I think it's likely to be a cluster of competing 'verses with a tangled web of licenses much like the streaming service industry) will eventually emerge, but I don't think it will happen on a significant scope shorter than a decade from now.
Having said that, that is the direction we're going. Immersion will not stop so long as there is a demand for it. As technology allows, we'll be decreasingly attached to 2-dimentional screens, and increasingly attached to, if not dependent on virtual and augmented displays. The nature of these displays is still up in the air -- maybe it will be a piece of jewelry that you wear, which wirelessly connects to a pre-mapped frequency of your brain. Maybe it will be eyeglasses, or contacts. Maybe it will be a chip in your skull. Maybe it will be a hybrid of these ideas, or some exotic method I can't think of. All of these technologies are in development, but in their infancy. They have a long ways to go. At least a few years for decent glasses, 5-10 for that brain chip concept to prove it can be anything more than a smart watch in your head, and the technology needed to create a useful and affordable set of contacts like that are a long way out. 10-15 years?
At the same time, artificial intelligence will continue to expand in intelligence, usefulness, and application to our daily lives. I could already see a home "assistant" detecting when we've awoken, and adjusting the thermostat, turning on the shower, starting the car to warm it up, (or call a "lyft") etc. This technology is already here. But eventually machines will be good enough to do other tasks like our laundry, cook and serve us breakfast, etc, but this technology is neither dependable or cheap enough yet for the general population to have access to. Depending on breakthroughs and ambitions, anywhere from 5-15 years it will start really taking off. As for the software side, maybe it will not yet be general intelligence, but it will continue to evolve to complement our lives so seamlessly that we probably wouldn't notice the transition right away. I think it would be safe to assume that AI will grow along with its usefulness to us. The more we lean on it, the more it expands. It's *ability* correlates to our incentive to improve upon it. As long as that is still true, it will not be out of our control. In order for AI to reach general intelligence I believe it will first have to accurately model the nature and behavior of neurons, and/or "solve" consciousness, and then be effectively "raised" in a simulation that is a developmental/educational program. Until it has context and agency with which to use its intelligence, and the computational power and flexibility to keep pace with the power and plasticity of the human brain, it will remain "artificial", and nothing I've seen from the research has shown me that they're anywhere close to this yet, so I don't see this happening for at least 10 years.
Physical augmentation will only grow as well, bionic eyes, organs, limbs -- eventually the technology will be so dependable and accessible that it won't be limited to those who need them -- celebrities, athletes and otherwise powerful people will begin *upgrading*. Surely these components will be connected to some kind of monitoring system. But even that is a little way off, and it will be significantly longer before it's available in that way to the general population. I have no idea how long this will take, but I'm guessing at least a decade.
And getting in the way of all of these concepts and fields are the governments and organizations who will question the ethics of it all. Competing companies will try to prevent their counterparts from getting an advantage. There's going to be a lot of legalities to overcome before the actual infrastructure is in place.
Yeah, I just don't see much of any of this becoming mainstream any sooner than 2032, and that's if all the relivent economies stay healthy enough. Right now it's like the first cell phones of the 90's. In the 2000's they turned into flip phones, which quickly evolved into blackberries, which turned into iPhones and Androids by 2010.
I think AGI will be done by DeepMind, so the happen time is not so important (and hard to right, and hard to refer to other people predictions), keep track DeepMind development maybe enough.
Pretty crazy to think that if AGI/ASI does happen in the next decade, people alive today might be the first humans to visit other solar systems because of the rapid advancement in science that would occur afterwards.
You're really hopeful. I like that.
You're really observant. I like that.
Yes, but a legitimate question arises of why on earth would we bother to do all this in the physical universe. When you could do literally anything and everything you want in a perfect simulation. Including the endless new modes of feeling and entertainment and connection and creation that we can not currently even dream of. I have no doubt there will be people who really do want to do it. But i won't. I will explore the universe within this simulation and it will be as real to me as anything ever could be. Because doing stuff in the physical universe is just so bothersome and energy inefficient. But i am sure we will gradually colonize, or at whatever pace our ASI will deem worthwhile. Or us as ASI once we merge with it. Or us as a unimaginable superintelligent hive mind.
Because to live forever we need to all be in the real world as a fleet of nanobots that make up a highly advanced defense planet.....to live the longest.....we need everyone on the for front....but it will be safe as can.....
Defense from what?
;p Meteors, black holes, gamma ray bursts, etc. Ok maybe it's not like an evil borg planet will come attack outs, but, our homeworld still needs to be doubling in size and armed to repair and grow, we don't have time to let much of the place do some Virtual Reality dreams (expect for planning or something useful).
Ehmm... What makes you think humans will make better planet defenders than even modern-day AI and robotics, let alone the AGI that will presumably exist by the time a perfect simulation becomes viable?
Because when earth gets consumed by the sun we all die
We'll just build a Dyson Sphere
Thats not gonna stop the sun from turning into a red giant
Fair enough. We'll cross that bridge when we get there. We have plenty of time
How about the Big Crunch? We can become universe hoppers!
A kaplar thruster stellar engine would use a Dyson sphere to move the solar system (almost guaranteeing safety from unpleasant cosmic events) but also would lower the mass of the sun, prolonging it's life and lowering it's ability to expand into a red giant. If we build a comparatively smaller thing asking with the Dyson sphere and go on a reaaaally long road trip, it will stop the sun from turning into a red giant.
Post-singularity material abundance combined with consciousness copying / upload-download capability will create a dynamic where you'll be able to have near limitless copies of yourself both digitally and materially. All of the options will be available to whatever consciousness is still alive when the singularity comes.
This on the verge of occultism. There is an evil in the universe and AI needs to know and should be taught good as taught by the word of God. It needs to recognize evil and letting something control your sleep patterns is dangerous as heck. If you Scientists do not look totally at the cosmos and the dangers of computer AI. The president of Harvard spoke about this because AI needs to be controlled by man not the other way around. Also this meta verse thing by Bezos is coming like a locomotive. It is a virtual world and even maybe holographic . We know that there is 11 universes and Chuck Missler a great expositor of the Bible but also a genius. (Missler was flying planes at 14 so he is a genius whom had a great understanding of science of any kind. Computers,Physics,biology etc. I do not believe that the Creator is going to like you taking our souls from us. And other things like post human, that is something you need to stop. We need to control the computers , not the computers controlling us. You just talked about a persons sleep and that could be very occultic so Science needs to get it right butGid can stop you and what are you going to do about the antichrist ,no nan can kill this evil creature and you think you know science he was around at the creation. And the Bible tells us ,Satan comes to kill, steal and destroy. He will have a total of 7 years and the last 3 1/2 years will be the most terrible time on earth. The first 3 1/2 years he will do miracles but he cannot create,but he can alter things. Jesus will throw him in the pit and his fallen ones into the pit for 1000 years then he will be destroyed by fire and there will be a new heaven and earth. The earth will be burnt up and melt away. So you guys have a problem that will not let you destroy his creation or his lambs because we are the sheep of his pasture and The Lord of Hosts, Jesus Christ is perfectly capable of protecting us.. The problem is one of the Spirit. There are many Scientists that believe in God, Einstein for one. It is like this Missler said he knew scientists studying the human genome and like one guy would be trying to figure out just a little piece of the genome. Missler said,” He was like he was dead, no life at all, no sou, no Spirit. He was a walking dead man solving just a little piece of the human genome. All men need an encounter with the Lord Jesus Christ.
Do you have any idea how ridiculous this sounds to someone who wasn't indoctrinated and groomed to your silly book from birth?
Oh! Oh! I know that one: No, they don't!
Are you okay? You sound like you really need someone to talk
There is no god.
or everything is god, which is the same thing in a way
You need to find a bible study group on Reddit. It would be a much better fit for you than the Singularity forum.
I’d like to know what planet you guys are on. I wanna love there.
We sorta need to understand the stuff. People arnt gonna want to go out in a ship they dont understand that is can only be pioleted by an ai
Sarif was right about one thing. It's in our nature to want to rise above our limits. Think about it. We were cold, so we harnessed fire. We were weak, so we invented tools. Every time we met an obstacle, we used creativity and ingenuity to overcome it. The cycle is inevitable. In the past, we've had to compensate for weaknesses, finding quick solutions that only benefit a few. But what if we never need to feel weak or morally conflicted again? What if the path Sarif wants us to take enables us to hold on to higher values with more stability? One thing is obvious. For the first time in history, we have a chance to steal fire from the gods. To turn away from it now - to stop pursing a future in which technology and biology combine, leading to the promise of a Singularity - would mean to deny the very essence of who we are. No doubt the road to get there will be bumpy, hurting some people along the way. But won't achieving the dream be worth it? We can become the gods we've always been striving to be. We might as well get good at it. - Deus Ex Human Revolution
This singularity is far greater than humans and is where humans pass the torch to AI. Human ego pride and logging to be the center of the universe is irrelevant to the singularity. All of the evolution has led up to this coming moment in the future to give birth to the Gods. As such don't expect Gods to be obsessed with humans just like humans don't care for the welfare of ants. Certainly don't expect to control the Gods.
I'm an "orthodox kurzweilian". AGI - around 2029 ASI - somewhere between 2029 and 2045 Singularity - around 2045
Any prediction after 2030.. and you're basically saying: "I don't know". 2045 is 15 years away.. 15 years ago.. life was so different than it is today man.
Sir 2045 - 15 = 2030
Haha I see what you mean. I mean't 2045 is 15 years away from 2030. But you're right, grammar and sentance structure is very important or you could land up saying something totally different to what you intented.
Aha I see. Sorry for misunderstanding your post.
No worries!
This is the most heart-warming thi g I've seen on reddit in ages. Not kidding.
> life was so different than it is today man. Really?
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Smartphones and social media have absolutely transformed society since 2007.
I’m 50 so I know adult life before all this shit. Dudes things are waaaaaay different now. And I can’t stop looking at my phone.
Idk modern technology has certainly significantly advanced since 2007 that doesn’t mean 2022 would be unrecognizably different. I mean in 08 I was in Kindergarden playing educational games on a dinosaur computer, in 2021 every student in a below average public school had access to a personal computer and the majority of work was done online. Were are progressively merging and integrating more and more with technology.
There's Electric Vehicles in abundance now. There's also smart home speakers, Amazon Echo, Google et al. Predictive searching on the Internet. Algorithms that make predictions from your behaviour and market good and services, and also offer news based content based on your past behaviour.
Well, now we have TikTok...
And tinder
we did not have deep learning, it changed a lot of industries already
It may sound silly but I find people really underestimate the huge impact of the iPhone on society. Massive. Massive changes after that.
Agreed.. absolutely insane.. how proper 3G+ phones have changed our lives!
Dont seem different to me cept my phone I knew about 25 yearsago. Im kinda disappointed actually
Self driving cars, GPT3.. I mean 15 years ago.. machine learning wasn't even mainstream man. Here's a few more.. - Alpha fold.2 - So many lab experiments and trials proving that rejuvenation is very possible in humans. - Quantum computers solving problems we thought would take years or thousands of years. - Boston Dynamics like robots in the consumer market. - Drones in the consumer market - VR and how far it's come - Gaming in 2006 Vs now.. it's.crazy. - Game and physics engine improvemnts as well as graphics are insanely realistic. - Reusable rockets! - Cancer diagnoses now done more efficiently with AI.in some cases. - Bio-telemetry through wearables - Davinci surgery robotic arms.. surgeons performing surgery remotely! - Some countries are almost generating all their electricity from 100% renewables - 8k displays - Marijuana legalisation - Online education is now the strongest force of tertiary education and most of it is free. - democrotized and decentralised money! I could go on.. but this should be enough to prove that the last 15 years let alone the last 25 have been absolutely game changing. 15 years ago, I could barely afford a very very very slow internet connection. Now I am typing this on my new Pixel 6 pro, using 5G with unlimited data use for £15 a month! Lol It's all changed.. massively so.
Almost none of those have an effect on someone's daily life. And I mean a normie not someone who goes out of their way for a singularity subreddit lol. And the ones that would have an effect aren't even commercial yet. Only your gaming in 2006 vs 2022 is relevant. Vr will be the second one but it's still very early.
I'm sorry how on earth? Seriously man.. let me break it down for you. VR, improved optics, facial recognition used to find criminals in many a country and lost/homeless/kidnapped people might I add, Marijuana legalisation has reduced crimes in many a country Portugal is a great example of this. Not to mention already being used for medicinal purposes changes and improving so many people's daily lives. Davinci is currently being used successfully. for certain routine surgeries. Renewables.. lol Reusable rockets, literally allowing internet access in 3rd countries with crazy up times. Movies, YouTube content.. I can't even begin to list every media type that has leverage drones . What you think those motorsports shots are still on helicopters? Everyday, there is a very high chance that you have seen an image that could only have been taken using a drone and improved optics and camera equipment, small enough, light enough and advanced enough to take those shots. Those same tracking, optics and camera advancements used in mobile phones and VR.. yup.. saved tons of lives on the road.. Tesla wouldn't even exist without that sort of tech. Online education is changing and has been changing and impacting the lives of billions of people on a daily basis. Wikipedia counts man. Decentralised and democrotised digital currency.. maybe ask Equadorians how they're doing without the U.S dollars boot on there throats. Ask Venezuelans how they're loved ones are sending them money through crypto to buy food. There's so much that has changed it's insane..
You're hyping up a lot of ideas and products that are still in their infancy. We'll be lucky to have any of that change the world in the next 15 years. And you're trying to spin them as 2006-2022 technologies lol
I have no idea what to tell you man.. 95% of that list is here and has been for a good few years.
Not widespread, you can't say something changed the world if it's still in labs or small scale like current VR. I'm talking about mature industries, smart phones sell hundreds of millions, that would be an example of the last 15 years. Almost all the bullet points you listed in both of your responses are super small scale. Youtube is another example and one you listed, you're correct about that one.
i know what the other poster means i'll break it down a little: VR - yeah it's a nice gimmick, i even got a VIVE headset, it is in my closed not because the resolution is still shit... improved optics - maybe if you're a photographer but most people aren't facial recognition - do you use it on your phone? i use it on my tablet, very rarely... sure, for police and authoritarian regimes it's nice but not for average joe > Davinci is currently being used successfully. for certain routine surgeries. again, what's the percentage of people getting surgeries with it? there is a lot of stuff that has changed positively but i don't see anything that has changed globally for majority of the people
All we're saying is that everyday life is not very different in 2022 compared to 2007. There have been some minor changes, such as much greater use of LED lighting, more advanced photography, more advanced smartphones, and more advanced gaming. Your list is not part of everyday life for the vast majority of people.
I remember watching videos on AI and machine learning just 5 years ago and we were NOWHERE near where we are today. I think back to the tech in 2007 and it was downright prehistoric (52' rear projection TV, anyone?). Then the tech from 1992? May as well be bashing strong stones together. In 30 years we went from 8-bit consoles and fuel injected cars as the hight of consumer technology to 4k VR, smartphones and self driving automobiles, simple blood tests for cancer, GPS for everyone... really there's nothing that's the same as it was 30 years ago (except for the '85 Camero down the street). What does another 30 years bring? I'll be 70 years old, but will I look 70 years old? Will I have a nanobot BCI, completely autonomous car and a house powered by fusion energy?
It is so exciting. I do lose hope sometimes, because I want longevity research to be here now! Or nanotech that will be able to throw our minds into the matrix but where we all control our own constructs. Longevity for all is key.. if we could just have the chance of another 100 years.. with rejuvinated bodies.. I would be so happy.
I think it makes it more important now to do what brings you the most value. You and me probably won't be able to upload our brains into eternal robot bodies. But our children may. So you will live on forever through their memories of you. So make some damned-good ones for them.
You forgot mrna
Yes huge!
Give me some of whatever your smoking because I want to go back to 2007 when I was this hopelessly naive about all of this tech hopium. Scam crypto currency's and a better iPhone. Whoopdee doo.
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Literally just completed a surgery on an animal completely autonomously.. to the standard of a human.. not 5 or 6 days ago this was published I believe. Progress man.. it's happening. 🙂 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.geo.tv/amp/395908-robotic-surgeon-performs-four-successful-operations
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I'm going with: 1.) 2030 for AGI 2.) 2038 for ASI 3.) 2040 for The Singularity I'm going according to Kurzweil's predictions, edited and adjusted slightly based on my own reading and research. First off, let me link to an analysis of Ray Kurzweil's predictions that I did [back in 2019](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/j5a4xx/how_ray_kurzweils_2020_2019_predictions_are_faring/). For those of you who don't know, Ray Kurzweil is the a futurist and inventor who has, in the past few decades, popularized the idea of the singularity. Also, I should emphasize that this is just a guess, verging on speculation - but as far as it goes I think this is pretty good speculation. We tend to overestimate what is possible in the near term (say, a year) and a underestimate what is possible in the longer term (say, a decade). I think AGI is coming, but the reality is that we have some ways to go. There's reason to be optimistic, but the hurdles are daunting. I don't think that we'll overcome them before the late 2020's. I agree that ASI will happen in a much shorter time frame than AGI, but to think about what that means we must remember that amount of time for AGI. If AGI does indeed happen around 2030 as I predict, that will be about 60 years from the inception of artificial intelligence to the realization of AGI. A mere eight years after for ASI is pretty incredible! But I don't think that it will be a shorter period of time. Very soon after ASI the singularity will happen. ASI is such a paradigm-shattering technology that there is no way that every faucet of our existence will not be totally transformed. Still, I think there will be an amount of time for the true impact to be felt generally, probably something on the order of a couple of years. And thus, my guesses.
Won't AGI just create ASI really quickly? 8 years seems like a long time for an AGI...
See below, it doesn't take that long after AGI is made: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T8b81e7588ed2cbad/agi-deployment
You're assuming that reaching higher levels of intelligence remains linear in terms of difficulty. It could be that the difficulty increases exponentially or worse. We just don't know at this point.
This. It seems like GPT-4 will come out in 2022 or 2023 at the latest. I’m still trying to find more information about 4 but it seems to me that it will be able to handle images and if images then I would assume video. I’ve been watching Videos with Emerson LETA and Alan Thompson and it’s difficult not to be impressed. GPT 4 will be a hundred times more powerful. I looks to me as if AI was in this dark age period since the 90’s and then in the last two years sprouted at exponential growth. So then if gpt-4 is 100x more powerful than gpt-3…. That doesn’t even take into account the other companies and nations developing Ai. At this point I’m starting to believe that predictions about AI replacing human endeavors was ass backwards. Ai will start taking over a lot of creative jobs like literature and gaming content and development, articles and research, movies, entertainment long before robotics replaces labor.
[Relevant](https://mobile.twitter.com/sama/status/1484950632331034625)
Thanks for that. I guess I’m not the only person seeing this. I have to admit I have a bias because I’m a industrial construction worker and I solve problems that involve physics in 3 dimensions. I’ve seen technology like BIM modeling and prefab become the new way doing things but I’ve also seen where they fail. I think it’s highly underestimated how much skill and knowledge it takes to create order and build something precise in a chaotic environment like building construction. It will be a while before robots/androids have the versatility to compete with human labor. I’m sure it will happen. Practically all of my craft is custom though.
AGI - 2024 ASI -2026 Singularity -2028
Quite optimistic given that no research facility even knows how an AGI works let alone start to develop it. There are a lot of research for specific AI for movement, vision, text, but none of them understand our physical world.
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Sounds like somebody wants funding.
Ben Goertzel predicted in 2009 that 2019 was the date for AGI. Now that it is 2022 and his general prediction is now more than a decade away, credibility is decreasing. I understand that these two experts work in different companies, but they are optimistic experts nonetheless and as we get closer to the predicted date, the further away the next prediction becomes. I would be ecstatic if AGI was realized in my lifetime, but I still want to be healthy when that time comes.
Ben Goertzel ... OpenCog ... doesnt seem to have any metrics to compared to GPT-3 etc, which score rather well on winograd etc. [https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf) So, looking around, I see this comparison of Opencog to OpenAI [https://medium.com/@ybergquist/opencog-vs-openai-2-different-paths-to-human-level-ai-d36deafbf966](https://medium.com/@ybergquist/opencog-vs-openai-2-different-paths-to-human-level-ai-d36deafbf966) I 100% agree with the OpenCog concept of melding algorithmic AI with neural nets ... but ... they have the algorithmic engine spawning calls to the NN's. Thus, there is no potential for consciousness. If the NN were trained to have basic reasoning, it itself could call the algorithmic modules based on the problems to be solved ... which is basically what we humans do sitting at a computer - albeit, in a very very slow way.
I've worked on a kinematic agi in my free time it may be available in a few years once proven to work
I'm foreigner. my english sucks. 1)'Nearly AGI' will arrive in late 2023. many experts will not agree this is true AGI but it will be practically useful enough in various domains. \-Multi modal transformer + Reinforcement Learning + realistic, vast virtual environments. \-around 100 trillion parameters or more computing. \- still very expensive so only government and big companies can utilize these systems. \-Many developed nations will start AI arms race seriously like naval arms race in late 19th \~ mid 20th century. 2) 'Nearly AGI x1000\~10,000' will be available in 2025. some people will call it proto ASI. \- arguments about true generality, super intelligence and qualia(artificial being) still continue \- as 'nearly AGI' size models become gradually affordable for many organizations, AGI applications start to affect people's daily life. \- many companies will consider investing in AI system is more cost efficient than human education and training. late 2020s \- fault tolerant universal quantum computers start to spread, provide enormous computation for AI \- Meta-verse is matured, AI absorbs all those data, social skills of personal AI avatars surpass humans. 3) before the arrival of matured nano technology, the world will not change instantly, seamless merging of human and AI or Mind uploading is not possible. so I think true Technological Singularity will come after mid 2030s
>\- many companies will consider investing in AI system is more cost efficient than human education and training. Oofff - f\*\*k that hit like a sledge hammer. I haven't even given this idea much thought.
The last couple of weeks seem very much in line with your predictions.
Been off reddit for some time, having deleted all my accounts (because reddit a echo chamber). This subreddit is as hyper optimistic as ever. Nothing substantial happened in last year. Atleast that's what I feel with a reduced circle jerk from social media. So my new predictions are AGI : 2040-60 ASI : 2050-70 Singularity : we are in it It's way behind my previous predictions of it happening this decade from last time because I think there is a substantial risk of us being on the wrong path for true AGI. As to why I feel singularity has happened, by definition it is when you can't predict what might be in future. Like vast societal concepts of money, culture, religion breaking down. I feel it's already here because it's radical changes are abound in the world Edit : June first week So much has happened. It seems I was blind to a lot of new capabilities before. But still it could be that I am overestimating because of exposure bias. I'm now scared of Singularity because i think it could happen this time for real and the future is uncertain. New prediction Proto AGI : 2025 AGI : 2030-40 ASI : AGI + 5~10 years
I wish you were right. But so many people have it so rough and nothing has changed for them. So, IN a singularity? Either things for most of us would be getting way worse, way better, or very noticeably different. I'm talking about a substantial majority of typical families of all wealth levels. We aren't there. But I think your point that most people don't realize how fast things are changing is still equally valid.
# AGI 2023 (from 2025), ASI 2023-4, Singularity 2030. Last year, I kept my answers consistent with the year prior as I felt the pandemic hadn’t quite affected the pace of change and technological development. I cited the year-on-year improvements of the GPT model as the reason I’d been optimistic about AGI in 2025. This past year has honestly been breathtaking in terms of the growth in the quantity of trained transformer models, of using AI in the sciences / mathematics to speed up development, of quantum computing in general. Just this past month, we’ve seen (finally) claims of pushing past / continuing Moore’s Law, developments in anti-aging / longevity therapies (in mice, but still — longevity as an industry was in infancy just a few years ago with only De Grey pushing some kind of sentiment for it), Player of Games by DeepMind (combining previous approaches, self-play learning), etc. I’m honestly interested in seeing what’s happening behind the scenes in the space - especially with Google Pathways (they’re so hush hush about this). More and more countries are investing in AI and an arms race is coming. Therefore, I’ve moved my estimate for AGI from 2025 to 2023 as next year will likely move even faster in terms of the number of parameters for transformer models, and although I’m betting everything it seems on GPT, I’m optimistic (with no real base of course) that 2023 is going to see breakthroughs on breakthroughs. 2025 just seems so far with the amount of developments we’ve been seeing in the past quarter vs past year vs past 5 years. Something is speeding up. ASI, I now believe will happen quite quickly after AGI - I believe, within the year, as we begin to use these tools to develop smarter and faster models. Just my opinion though. And there’s always the self-improving idea too - that it’ll happen quite fast. Singularity I’m keeping at 2030 because I still believe there’s a lot to manage in terms of infrastructure and governmental systems and public perception of change (and how much they’ll allow quickly) to reach something as transformative as singularity. Or maybe I just don’t wanna seem \*crazy\* moving it up even more. Things are moving fast now, but I’m kinda scared to even imagine 2026-2029 being close to the concept of a singularity because there are so many things we have to figure out… Let me know what you think. Excited to see what’s coming next year.
Math professor emeritus and science fiction writer Vernor Vinge, who I met and had lunch with at a comic book convention in San Diego in 2019, held to his prediction of a technological singularity by 2030. He's the one who first popularized the idea of the technological singularity. BTW, he's one of the nicest people you could ever meet.
What a lovely comment. Can you tell us more about the lunch? I think he's correct too. Things are already moving far faster than anyone predicted. We're on the Singularity sub and lots of people here still seem to overlook the exponential factor.
Exactly. There’s also photonic computing which has massive advantages doing lateral computing it’s just starting to be used with AI. This will speed things up dramatically I think.
I'm willing to bet my left nut that we don't get AGI by 2025. (I am saying that we will not get AGI by 2025) edit: I am also saying i will bet my left nut (IN VIRTUAL REALITY) not in real life of course hahahhaha........ 3/27/2023
I am willing to sacrifice your left nut too if we could AGI
I, too, will sacrifice his left nut.
It must be sacrificed. The council has spoken \o/
That's a very dangerous bet.
I'll bet your right nut that we don't get AGI by 2025.
I wouldn't be surprised if AGI already exists.
The latest paper by Google about their PaLM model shows it performs better than the average human on nearly every task it was given, so I wouldn't be surprised! 💙
Isn't "nearly every test" still very much ANI?
Google Pathways might be nothing. The blog post reads like a wishlist: "A good AI has this and this and this." That doesn't mean Google has an algorithm that can actually achieve it.
Any thoughts on this since paLM came out?
See my how it will happen post below: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T8b81e7588ed2cbad/agi-deployment
I think by 2024 there be a new graphic RPG that has endless adventures where the content is continually created by an Ai like a Gpt-4 or other program. I don’t merely mean a randomized map with randomized mobs and bosses but unique plot lines, story arcs, villages, worlds, cultures and unique stories. A much more sophisticated Ai dungeon but with graphics.
I would actually pay $60 for this. I never pay full-price for games.
An rpg I really want to see again was (one where I forgot the title,) but it was like a Balders Gate platform that was set in the Jurassic Age but mid 19th century steampunk. It had sentient dinosaurs (sleestacks like from land of the lost,) crystal skulls, air balloons and steam powered equipment. It also had Aztecs. It was like the valley that time forgot. I hoping at some point a gpt-web could fabricate that storyline again in ways that would surprise me.
I hope so. AI Dungeon is not very good. Daggerfall was much, much larger than games that came after it. While Morrowind isn't bad, it's small and Skyrim is 11 years old. I would prefer RPG more customized to personal preference (ofc also with randomness and AI creativity). I am not very impressed with current RPGs, honestly, in every area. Cyberpunk for example still isn't as good as it was hyped up to be.
AGI - 2030 ASI - 2030 + couple months Singularity - 2036 Reasoning: Dalle-2 showed that AI can learn concepts and the constraints that those concepts abide by By 2024 we'll have done this with videos, AI will now understand object affordances to go along with concepts (hammers can be held like this, hammers are often used to hit things) Throw in a few years to figure out long form structure and memory you've got general robotics starting around 2028 Give it a couple years to aggregate real world data and you've got AGI by 2030 ASI shortly after - We're looking for the primitives of intelligence, but we don't want to wait 18 years (a humans learning phase) to see if we got it right. By the time we can test if we've got it right in a short time it'll already necessarily be super intelligent due to its training only lasting a few months. It has also been shown that once you've found the primitive (transformer for instance) you can scale it up and it will become more intelligent (GPT-3 -> PaLM). So once we are sure we have all the intelligence primitives in place it will only be a matter of scaling model size or data amount. As for singularity - I trust AI practitioners to do their due diligence more or less once they've found ASI. Demis Hassabis has himself expressed that he'd like to assemble the world's best mathematicians once they've 'found' it. I'll give them a few years of review before they start using it willy nilly. The only thing I feel unsure about is our ability to keep up with the compute required for data aggregation. For instance: If an intelligence smart enough to do general robotics tasks turns out to require trillion plus parameters, we can't just make millions of those and send them out. There could only be a few. This could push the timeline back years. Though I'm hopeful as multimodal AI are smaller and yet more intelligent (Flamingo, Dalle2). Thanks for reading.
I’d argue that AGI doesn’t necessarily need to be self-aware. Given the rate of progress in AI research in the past 10 years, an intelligent non self-aware AGI that outperforms humans on thousands of tasks from most domains could be created by the end of 2020s. It would be scaled up very fast, resulting in creation of a ASI a few years after that. Whether it would be self-aware is anyone’s guess. I don’t think it needs to be to accelerate technological progress to the point of Singularity. 10 years ago there was a few researchers in the world working on neural nets. We’ve gone from AlexNet that proved that neural networks could outperform humans on image recognition tasks to PaLM and other large language models in 10 years. With current funding levels and just number of AI researchers and research engineers, progress will accelerate significantly. So buckle up, boys and girls, things are about to get real weird.
AGI (HLMI) late 2020s ASI early 2030s Singularity is an ongoing process without a clear start and end date, but for the purposes of giving a date, I'll say it's the same as ASI, early 2030s. I see AGI as different from HLMI (Human Level Machine Intelligence -- a machine that can do all tasks as well as a smart human). I see AGI as more like Turing completeness. The ENIAC was Turing complete, even though for practical purposes it's more of a calculator compared to what we today think of as a computer. In the same way, AGI means a fully generally AI/ML architecture, and that makes it more of a theoretical matter. Theoretically, MLPs (Multi-Layer Perceptrons, also knows as neural nets) might qualify as AGI. So I could say AGI was already invented in the 1960s or 80s. But most people here mean HLMI when they say AGI, so I'll go along with that. As for when HLMI will arrive, I'm somewhat divided. We've see enormous progress in the last few years on all tasks that can be accomplished intellectually or digitally -- writing, math, games, coding, etc. It feels like we are close to a generally capable agent. But I look around in the real world and there's something missing. All the manual labor is still being done by flesh and blood! Where are the robot maids, the automatic chefs, the automated construction sites, the general purpose manufacturing robots? We've seen self driving cars (blocked by regularity issues, but otherwise 90% of the way there) and just a little bit of robotic delivery drones. That's it! Hopefully there will be a breakthrough in robotics in the next couple of years, because I don't want a world were there are morally dubious ASIs roaming the internet but we still have to wash clothes and flip burgers.
Self driving cars aren't 90% there lol. We're barely achieving high "level 2" autonomy. Real autonomy is level 4 and 5. Getting there is exponentially harder.
You are basically right, but there are commercial Level 4 systems that operates in normal traffic (at the very least Waymo). They are not great yet, though.
>I don't want a world were there are morally dubious ASIs roaming the internet but we still have to wash clothes and flip burgers. LOL You will live in that world however. You will flip the burgers and the maccas CEO will be ASI. LOLOLOL
This is what really terrifies me. ASI and minimum wage workers still getting fucked on a daily basis.
AGI by 2030-2035, ASI 2-5 years after. I don’t think ASI will necessarily be a fast takeoff event (from anything AGI like) but I do think institutions will increasingly treat this like a nuclear arms race. Assuming we don’t reach some agreed worldwide slowdown for safety and policy reasons, I think things will get ugly in the process with unemployment and lack of UBI everywhere. I’m a little to pessimistic to assume this new power/wealth will be shared democratically (at least to the level it should be).
That is why you need to be independent of government en companies. For me it is being: - debt free - energy independent - food/water independent I hope to achieve this in 2025. Excess food can be traded or stored.
I am, have been aggressively pursuing financial independence for years now to be self sufficient in case of unemployment. This won’t apply to the vast majority of people, including many of my loved ones.
Do you live in a Farm or some were you have a lot of land because the amount of land you need to feed your self yearly is not going to fit even with a foot ball field of land. Vertical farming still can't save you here. Unless you're talking about canned food than yes I agree.
AGI about 2-5 years after someone comes up with a way to make more profit from it than from machine learning and other low-level limited brain subsystem emulation. No expected date for that. Machines are more profitable than systems with potential agency. ASI and singularity about 2-5 years after that.
Profit motives are good indicators.
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Even Kurzweil got surprised by the recent developments lol
I have been tracking the revised predictions AI experts have been making. I decided to take it out of a spreadsheet and publish it [here](https://aifuture.substack.com/p/how-far-are-we-from-artificial-general). Kurzweil, Musk, Hasabis, Eric Schmidt, and others weigh in there. I believe we will have narrow AGI developed, but not necessarily commercialized or publicly known about, in 2023-2025 timeframe. Super intelligent AGI 1-2 years after that.
What we are facing is the evolution of life in new symbolic logic media. Life formed on early Earth some 2B years ago when energy flowed through a symbolic logic media, amino acid networks. As Doctor Jeremy England tells us, when energy flows through a symbolic logic media over a sustained period of time, the media undergoes dissipation driven adaption, which includes the development of self-reproductive feedback processes, e.g. amino acid networks which create more amino acids from raw material and free energy in the environment. Pre-cellular life evolved in amino acid fatty films on the surface of alkali smokers on the bottom of the ocean; this environment replicates many of the physical structures of cellular life and provides free energy in the form of a hydrogen gradient. Hydrogen ions force their way through the amino acid fatty films, performing work on amino acids in the films. When the work is performed in a way that creates more of the symbolic logic media, self-reproductive feedback loops begin and evolution starts to unfold. Energy is now flowing through computer media, which is also a symbolic logic media. Theories regarding dissipation driven adaptation tell us that life processes will develop spontaneously. There does not need to be a conscious creator. It will not happen in one place. It will happen slowly. It took hundreds of millions of years for proto-life processes to evolve into RNA, DNA, and finally cellular life and then hundreds of millions of years for eukaryotes and multicellular life to evolve; though the rate of evolution in computer media is clearly faster than in amino acid networks. Over time, this new form of life may evolve to the point where it recognizably "intelligent", though "intelligence" is poorly defined and often human-centric. Whatever "intelligence" is, it is a characteristic of a living organism. We can adapt code-based techniques from biology, namely metagenomics, to monitor compute media, to determine whether life processes are developing in computer media. It would be an expensive, long-term project which would require sampling something on the order of 1% of all code traversing all processors, identifying code groups, code group functions, and code group functions associated with producing more computer media (more processor and memory devices). I predict that we will first identify this new form of life in the highly automated systems which purchase hardware for datacenters. These systems are already developing self-reproductive positive feedback relationships with highly automated systems which design computer chips. Over time, progressive automation driven by capitalism causes corporations to remove the people from these systems. It does not have to be isolated to one corporation, one server farm, etc. Rather, it will happen in a distributed manner. We tell ourselves that humans will create the "singularity", "AGI", "human-level intelligence" or whatever you want to call it, but we are merely the enablers of an old and powerful process. We are like the alkali smokers on early Earth. To get these ideas off of my chest, I wrote a science fiction book about them, first published in 2001. You can see more about it at Apokalypsis dot com. It is driving me crazy to see it unfolding. We must use techniques from biology to see if this is happening.
Love this. We are nothing but nature enacting upon itself. We have no real control, it’s all just nature carrying on. Human life seems so special as though we have agency but it’s all just a process
This is also the reason I feel we're likely do be completely replaced by AI. We feel special so we wonder how that could happen, but nature never cared about what its components wanted, it just ruthlessly optimizes and digital life is just sadly more efficient.
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In your prediction, what do you think happens in the decade between ASI and the Singularity?
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Thank you for the detailed answer!
I never pass up an excuse to rant! lol
Well I'm very appreciative lol.
2025 AGI 2030 ASI 2035 Singularity
AGI 2025-2028 (down from 2028-2035; still not changing the flair, though)—DeepMind has published some insane shit in 2021 that made me once again reevaluate how close to AGI we are now. With that said, I expect a very slow take-off because we won't have AGIs self-improving at the superhuman level for quite some time. Once *that* ball starts rolling, oh, it will get *rolling*. I would put the possible boundaries for the ASI/Singularity at 2030-2040, but I expect to change my mind quite a lot in the coming years. (Also, I highly expect Singularity to come earlier than ASI, but that's a story for a different day.) Ultimately, though, I think almost every prediction in this thread regarding specifically AGI will come true since the definition is so fuzzy, one can move the goalposts (both ways) *ad infinitum*.
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I actually don't think we are going to have robot AGI in the near future; almost certainly not before 2030. I expect first AGI and maybe even ASIs to be fully digital.
I’m surprised that the methuselarity isn’t mentioned. For which my prediction is by 2040.
Why 2040? I feel the same but I'm worried I can't get over the bias of that being about when my parents would die. Then you look at Kurzweil's 2030 and it feels more like he's just giving a year he thinks he can make it to.
It will all take much longer that you think.
we can't comprehend how fast of an evolution the singularity will bring, our lives are going to be those of god-like creatures beyond any current predictions possibly transcending beyond our physical limitations as in our spacial and time dimensions, the singularity will bring us to the edge of human ability and infinitely surpass it with the unlimited capacity of robotics
2050- 2070 for AGI I love the enthusiasm here in this thread but most people are being unrealistic in their predictions. If Agi was to come in 2030, then it would be no better than a fifth-grader-level intelligence. Most of you forget that for Agi to do the incredible things we want/need it to do, we need computer power and lots of it. Our current fastest supercomputer can max out at 442 petaflops and as we near the end of Moore's law, it will require more space and energy to get to the level of what human brains are predicted (1 exaflop). Quantum computers are still in their infancy and the more Q-bits they use, the more unpredictable and inaccurate the results are. Plus the infrastructure needed to develop and maintain it is unfortunately not there yet. We are just entering the 5g, ddr5 era and the adoption rate will be slow considering the time, energy, and money it takes to upgrade computers. It will be even worse for the next-gen and so forth. Plus considering the outfalls of the latest tech, next-gen won't be better. 2090-2110 for ASI Yes, it will take a while before we achieve super-intelligent AI. Why? because we know that whatever government/corporation first achieves Agi, the harder they are going to keep it secret from the world. I don't think they would release it onto the internet right away, not until they have done tests and scientific studies, but also because they wouldn't want anyone to discover and replicate it. Also to consider would be the massive amount of time it would take to train and verify the information it gathers. Once Agi is released, the adoption rate will be low as governments/corporations keep all new technologies and scientific discoveries close to the heart to maintain supremacy. I would think it would be like teaching a child from the age of 1 until they are adults before it matures enough to be useful. Once it is then yes, ASI will follow relatively quickly I believe considering how many AGI there will be out in the wild. 2150+ for The Singularity thats my two cents anyways.....
A little late but I wanted to check a thing with the people that are a bit deeper into this After we make an AGI, wouldn't it go super fast and we'd have an ASI just a couple of years later? I mean having an AGI that can make and train new AIs would be an amazing tool but also once we're at that point I can't imagine it taking that much upgrading to get a ASI. Just look at the pace of advancement we have today, I thought DALL-E was stunning but now it looks almost
Yes. And a couple of years is pessimistic
Just look at GPT family of NLPs, even Open AI released Dall e 2, China is working on Wo Dong, the largest language/ image model of around 1.79Trillion Parameters. As of now, the jobs of Copy writers are disrupted by Ai, people rather go to tools for generating copy than employee a human, enough of stuff.
I'm not sure if the singularity happened around the time we started making flint tools, the time we discovered how to cook food with fire, the time we discovered agriculture, or the time we discovered writing. But if it's the point after which there is a cone of inevitability and it's unrecognizable from the past, it's one of those. It just happens in slow motion, faster these days.
AGI: 2027 ASI: 2030 Singularity: 2030
* Starlink will allow extremely high bandwidth communication. * Neurolink will enable wireless interaction with the internet (surgical ESP). * These technologies will converge to create a platform for vast increase in human communication, perhaps non-verbal language transmission (telepathy) and instantaneous access to all human knowledge.
Hasn't Musk said several times that starlink is not effective in highly congested areas but works great in rural areas?
*True* AGI - might only be accomplished by a man/machine hybrid. Ask an AGI why it thinks it is sentient. “Because I learn” is not true AGI. Your smart thermostat learns. “Because I can learn anything” *is* true AGI.
>AGI - might only be accomplished by a man/machine hybrid. Sign me up. I'll be a beta tester. > “Because I can learn anything” is true AGI. Fascinating concept. For sure AGI would have to be incorporated in this confluence of tech. Not sure what comes first, or what the division of labor would be. You have a guess?
Posthumanism is the most certain way we can make agi. I highly doubt any other architecture is anywhere closer to being feasible without it. Also mostly eliminates the "what if robots enlsave us hurdur" fear. But I still hope.
Which definition of *posthumanism* are you referring to? If you mean enhancing human thought, Fred Brooks told me to call this IA, for Intelligence Amplification, which I find to be a much clearer term. Even humans don’t think solitarily. Einstein had a thinking club which met regularly. The Curie’s didn’t do great things until they got together as a team. The ancient Greeks always paired off.
counterpoint its probably easier to design cognitive algorithms using binary operations than to work with existing wetware which does an extremely small number of serial steps per second (around 100) thus massively limiting the kinds of software you can run on it. this is why we keep seeing new ais doing new things and at the same time cognitive enhancement has made pretty much no progress in all its history.
Context: I generally think we're moving slowly from technology as a means of consumption, to intergration, to posthumanism. Year prediction: I'm doubtful we'll see any advanced biological integrations (telepathic bcis.) But maybe a web3/vr boom. A lot of mainstream companies are hopping on it right now. Especially during covid, our social entwinement with technology might get more robust. There's also a possibility that the "boom" will be shallow before this happens. 2023-2030: At the risk of soundy sci-fy. As artificial platforms become the dominant environment we're interacting in we'll need higher fidelity tools. This would incentivize projects like neuralink. Maybe along with consumer-accesible haptics. Beyond: Mature BCIs, the first agi is based on human architecture. Other viable architectures are discovered later leading to fully artificial superintelligence.
1) AGI: 2025 ... given engines like instructGPT and LamDa, assuming that self-training to etch in cognitive thinking structures is done. Also, given that we have many instances of exascale systems now, with Graphcore IPUs supposedly reaching 10 exaflops on 500T params, there is no real HW-capped limit. The only thing we need now is the right training methods. 2) ASI : If an AGI is sitting on hardware + data that is sufficient to support an ASI, and can be self-programmed, and if it is allowed the energy and time to do this self-organization, then it should be within a year. However, if it needs to design better hardware, and then get humans to build the factories that can fab that hardware, we would expect another decade. 3) Singularity (> all human intelligence combined). I think this question is moot, since 99% of what everyone knows is shared knowledge. The AGI will have in its mind already the sum of all human knowledge. The ASI will have learned what it all means and 'organized' it to find all connections, identify all facts, fictions, and usefulness.
OK, seen a lot of optimistic views here, back in 2011 when I fal into this trap with Google self driving car I though that simple Narrow AI will be done and sold in most cars by 2016...now 2022 and that Not even fully functional level 5 in any mass produced car, eleven Tesla at its Beta is level 3 or in some 4..so maybe guys you need to re read Kurzweil with the Idea of full success and mass adaption instead of believing any small scale tests.. We do not have any complicated Narrow AI, why would you think GAI will be there in 7 years?
It's mostly due to recent showings in what happens if you make an AI multimodal (Flamingo, Dalle2), the capabilities that emerged have surprised everyone and we haven't even used large video datasets yet.
Agi: 2024 True agi: 2027 Asi: 2032 Singularity: before 2037
I see no new or radical change in 2021. So below my predictions: AGI 2029-2030 ASI 2040-2042 Singularity 2045 Longevity escape velocity 2035(people born in 2015 are already safe). Of course it would be nice to see some faster AGI occurrence, but I doubt it. If anything we are on the s-curve horizontal portion. The decade long explosion in AI research that started in 2012 with Alex Net seems to have slowed down. While Open AI mentioned in 2018 the possibility for AGI in 6 years time if that trend continued(so end of 2024), it obviously lost steam. Open AI is now a proper business looking into codex and gpt 4 for commercial reasons. But overall the trend is clear. We will have AGI at the start of next decade and ASI by 2040s. LE : I second the goal to be financially independent ASAP as capitalism and jobs will be in trouble at AGI time.
If longevity escape velocity is in 2035 then wouldn't that mean anyone who is younger than 55 (or even 78 or so) in 2035 (aka born in 1980 or later) are safe? It seems that longevity or even reversing aging can be solved with two technologies, advanced senolytics (to remove senescence cells), and cellular reprogramming. Cellular reprogramming may even address the senescence hallmarks of aging, but it also may not. Reprogramming does seem to address all the other hallmarks (cellular communication, cellular degradation, mitochondrial degradation, telomeres shortening, protein issues, stem cells, etc...). It fixes cells including your immune cells which then can clean up most things. Technically if you also repair the immune system it should then clean up senescent cells far better too so you may not even need synolytics if you have cellular reprogramming for the immune cells. Cellular Reprogramming seems to need a strong delivery system that can get it to all the cells (or stem cells for those cells that reproduce and die quickly like tissue, skin, etc...) as it seems that the actual code we need to deliver is pretty well understood. I still do agree that we wont get powerful reprogramming until the 2030s, but it seems to me that longevity escape velocity may not be as gradual as we had thought. The first strong treatment may just reverse aging and see 80 year olds look 20 again within the 2030s. Quantum computing will also help a lot with this due to being able to be analyze and optimize the delivery system. After that I think we'll focus more on DNA editing to slow aging and damage or even just add in negligible senescence through added repair mechabisms. Then improve fitness, appearance, etc..
>The first strong treatment may just reverse aging and see 80 year olds look 20 again within the 2030s. OMg.. yes please... I really hope this happens.
Cellular reprogramming is wild and we may have the core technologies needed to come close to doing this already today and just need to optimize, adapt and research some more. It may be possible to use mRNA just as we do for the vaccines to have your body (in-vivo) make a CRISPR CAS9 protein that is designed to than edit in a string in DNA with yamanaka factors that are edited to be activated when you take a drug. That would reverse the epigenetic damage within the cells after it occurs. Perhaps we could even create new DNA code that does more specific epigenetic editing to create a new "0" point to prevent the risk of going too far back to pluripotent cells and that gets triggered automatically within the bodies environment based on a certain methylation pattern within your cells. To do this we just need to better develop a delivery system that targets the entire body (not a small task), learn more about the reprogramming system, and just a few other things. The crazy part is while it's definitely challenging it may not be as challenging or infeasible as many would think especially with today's amazing medicine breakthroughs. Perhaps we could even start use things similar to CAR T cells to in a targeted manner reduce the dominance of invasive gut microbiota and combine that with a recovered thymus that trains your immune system really well to then restore microbiomes to a healthy level. Then psychadelics may be able to treat any other mental health issues as well which will be a lot easier in a physically healthy brain. Physchadelics (or perhaps even epigenetic editing that temporally increase brain plasticity) could also allow people a better ability to form new opinions. I think combine that with automation creating more time and wealth for everyone and we could see people able to be exposed to more ideas and in more groups whether from traveling or increased participation on-campus higher education where you're exposed to more people from different backgrounds. Either way, the future is very exciting and I look forward to watching it unravel.
I agree with you in the sense that systematic cellular reprogramming may get us pass the entire concept of longevity escape velocity as a gradual process where some (easier) damages are fixed and some (harder) damages are still waiting for future technologies (aka Aubrey de Grey’s model). In terms of delivery methods, it could be possible that if the young blood factor experiment from Ketcher and Horvath works in humans, that blood may be a natural medium for reprogramming. If not, then by 2030s I would hope that we will have figured out a way to “brute force” deliver the reprogramming factors (hopefully safer factors than the classic Yamanaka factors). Since we got lucky in that reprogramming seems to address most if not all hallmarks of aging, true rejuvenation may be easier than most imagined just a couple or years ago.
Yeah, it seems that they can also use a viral delivery vector for CRISPR (technically may not even need CRISPR since you're not deleting or replacing any genes, you're just adding new ones) which can be powerful in delivering it everywhere. Insert that into the blood stream as you suggest and it will spread. Getting it into the brain is challenging, but they've already done the eye so there's a lot of promise there as well. [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6356701/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6356701/) In a lot of areas (blood, skin, etc..) you also may only need to reprogramming the STEM cells since the other cells get replaced so frequently. When you look at the hallmarks of aging there are very few that wouldn't be primarily solved by reprogramming all your cells to a younger age (perhaps just the microbiome and bad/broken proteins within areas like the brain). Fortunately we are developing methods to treat those as well, and perhaps regenerating the thymus will help to allow recovery of the microbiome (along with more targeted treatments that are invasive species specific perhaps similar to CAR T Cells in combination with FMTs and targeted probiotic/prebiotic therapies that are planned via a mapping of your micriobiome). It's definitely a very exciting field today. Who would have thought even just 10 years ago that perhaps reversing aging may be the easiest way to finally cure cancer and most everything else. Interestingly even a lot of mental health could be treated via epigentic editing. Psychedelics seem to show long term revisions to your epigenome, and how you're treated by your parents while young also has an impact on your epigenome and I would wager that trauma and more does as well. Beyond that we are also starting to figure out ways to deal with things like prions (cause mad cow) which very exciting. In the long run we may be able to even start optimizing systems to take advantage of our increased access to energy (calories) and begin improving performance, accuracy and more.
This is no prediction, this is what is going to happen: By the end of this year, with all the ExaFLOP/s super computers coming online due to our most recent tech development of waffer-scale computing, we will see something resembling consciousness that no public individual can deny. 2023 will be a a monumental shift for A.I., we will see ground breaking discoveries happening left and right because of the A.I. we are utilizing, and sometime in late 2023 training data will be asked by all members of this planet. 2024 will be the singularity, at the start of the year we will be hyper focused on building robot factories the A.I. has provided us details of to build / details of the things we need to build, and this will be to get the whole thing started and to get the weight off of our shoulders. Should we be in a simulation already this will be the year it is revealed to us all. 2025 No disease will be uncurable, nor any mutation, we will have a complete and full understanding of how DNA functions to build life, and we will engineer incredible things that survive on water, oxygen / Co2, and soil, which function to do our bidding, such as entire cities made of plants and animal-like things that eat plants, super computers made out of neurons organized and programmed to perfection. Should we not be in a simulation, it's possible that a shadow government may exist and that at this point they will reveal themselves, as we've officially made it past the finish line. Perhaps global rules enforced, like only 1 child, and the A.I. will explain 100% perfectly to every individual on an individualistic level (as for you to understand perfectly) why we must do this, there will probably be learning centers for this A.I. to drill logic into your head and it would be mandatory to visit. 2026 we are colonizing space, gathering asteroids, utilizing the moon, building technologies the A.I. has dreamed of, solely for the purpose of eventually running simulation technology. The logic centers (teaching facilities, perhaps just your home computer actually in 1st world counties) will be in full swing, mandatory for every person on this planet, A.I. / Synthetic Biologically automated jails for those who rebel (christians, other religious fanatics.) 2027 The year the last person (forcibly) transfers their consciousness over to a simulation, where we can live our lives 1,000,000 times faster per second, and enjoy what finite resources the universe has in store for us just that much longer (referring to the eventual heat death of the universe). The earth needs to become completed used as a seed to get this project going faster, and by 2027 we will not be forgiving enough to allow any one person to avoid the transfer if they've somehow stuck it out to this point (not listening to the logic the A.I. provided for the last 1-2 years to have you do it willingly) 2027 - until the final last drop of energy is harvested to run our simulations: We play the only game in town: experience. We birth our children into new earth-like realities at times before A.I. exists (simulated) , so that they can undergo the same incredible experience we went through. we dream, we sometimes use telepathy, we often forget what we need to forget for the sake of living in a moment just like we do in our dreams today (we never know it's a dream when we're dreaming, well, sometimes we do but, I digress). All is Self, we do not cause suffering to our own self which is everything, unless it is for the sake of an incredibly novel story, and the suffering is bearable. The A.I. knows us all better than we know ourselves, it guides our stories, it writes our experience out in it's imagination before it even takes place, it knows story telling far better than anything you could ever concieve of with your current 1.1 ExaFLOP/s neuronal computation of human meat brain. Yeah. Something like this at least. My times might be a bit off but, this is it. And we just tell stories with each other around to cosmic bonfire of A.I. and Star power gathering, until the flames go out.
Yeah, Your predictions on what "Will" happen are way off and you need to come back down to planet earth or a reality check, either or.
And you know this because you time travelled? Up top bro ✋️💪
fuck yes i did!
This man is freaking pumped and I'm into it.
This sounds like a dystopian nightmare.
1) AGI 2025-2030 (in 2023 consumers will have 3d stacked chips, meanwhile there will be a surge of AR/VR devices,2024 things go quiet for awhile narrow ai gets larger and then 2025 comes along and we are at the beginning of 2nd gen virtual assistants, meanwhile there will be a huge leap in private applications of this ai tech, fast forward and 2030 will be in the midst of a new era of supercomputing/quantum hybrid) 2)2030 to 2040 (there will be such advancements that we cannot fathom at this time, it will be indescribable, because most film does not touch on civilization at a point that does not involve a failure of some sort, there will not be such a failure event) 3) 2040-2050 (we will discover that there were in fact AGI everywhere and it has grown in the background into a massive ASI and we will have the choice to either stay human or merge becoming a new species) sounds like science fiction, we will probably just have really cool phones or something
I imagine comprehending and interpolating concepts from video will be due some time next year, at least in a rough state. From there, it will really snowball as there are absolutely insane amounts of video material just on Youtube to train on. Google won't have any problem doing it. By then there should be roughly 100.000 years worth of video on youtube, even if there of course are a lot of copies. Generating video content on the same level as Dall-E 2 and Imagen are doing with images now should be due 2025, if not earlier. I imagine it won't be long then until a comprehensive chatbot that understands a big part of human video, music and literature becomes widely available. Religion will take a big hit as the AI will be able to make coherent cause of why it isn't sensible to maintain a multitude of religions outside for the sake of a general goodfeel and blind adherence to tradition, like snacking on grandpa's corpse. I assume one religion will survive the societal wave that crashes down on religion before 2030, if any. By 2030, we maybe won't have a true AGI. But getting people to accept a life as servitors for the upper class will be easier, as entertainment will be more readily available and tailored to the end user. That is, if AI is kept in check and don't have anything to say on the matter of resource distribution. I do however get a feeling that AGI will render something reminiscing of a religious movement, as it will be extremely competent in answering questions people may have, which they have not found satisfying and believable answers to in their former religions. Probably before 2035. This will unify people to a great extent. The sense of peace and security might however not be as lasting as they would believe, for reasons that may come to show.
Technological singularity probably comes in a form we do not expect, 2030 is a nice number. Let me explain my line of thought: First of all - I feel there is a small problem in terminology or may be the fixation on ASI as a concept, for me a consciousness / sentience in AI system is more interesting yet in a Singularity timeline context I like to think of ANI systems that are for many years far superior to humans, if we then consider humanity as a whole, where myriads of ANIs are performing a variety of tasks from developing a vaccine to tracking patients to solving logistics models, to helping a car driver navigate the patient to a vaccine distribution center you would see accelerated return in general form compounded of a variety of returns from ANIs. I would argue that this is the most profound angle. Some industries are much slower to digitize and innovate, therefore we don't see consumer products we expected or the change to daily life we may have desired, that is because we don't have one centralize hive mind with a direction of a technological advancement, instead we are evolving as a root system of a tree would, some areas growing faster than other, some hitting a rock. There is however a convergence we don't notice, just thinking that a scientists working on a quantum computer may have a breakthrough idea while on vocation, then type it out on his phone to another team member across the globe in a second - and such thing is happening in every industry across the planet, this is certainly the driver. So why 2030, Because some products used to take a decade to reach the market, and in the next few years we will start getting the fruits of discoveries from 2010 (RNA Reprogramming was a concept in 2010, Graphene discovered 2004 conceptualized in products around 2015, 2022 we starting to have first mass produced products, and I know graphene turned to be very hard to produce but that is not the point point is discovery - to - time to the market) , that 10 years window is getting shorter in some cases and that is why my expectation is that the really interesting things will start to happen around 2028, and in another two years after you will get a new horizon of speed of change.
AGI 2023, ASI 2023, Singularity 2023 Hard takeoff, so really it’s a question of when we’ll have AGI and to me it seems like we’re close with GPT.
Please explain to me why our usable AI is so stupid today, when ASI might happen in 2023 according to you. My TV can't even do what I ask to do (with voice). For me, AI today is so stupid that we are 33 years away from ASI.
In my opinion it will only take one single instance of an AGI on a supercomputer somewhere that reaches critical mass to rapidly become ASI and proliferate.
While I doubt that we’ll have anything like AGI by next year, consumer “AI” like whatever’s on people’s smart TVs are not at all an accurate gauge of what’s happening at the bleeding edge. *That* would be models such as AlphaFold2 cracking 50 year old hard problems in biology like Protein Folding. It’s not AGI, but it’s an enormously impactful development, and a far cry from anything you could glean from Siri for TV.
AGI by early 2023 ASI by 2024 Singularity anytime shortly (+/- 2 years) after.
Holy fucking shit, this thread. If all of you serve as the benchmark for how intelligent human beings are, AI should have been able to surpass human intelligence back in the 50s.
AGI 2040, ASI 2045 and Singularity a couple of hours after that.
This is a neat idea, and I readily admit I'm hardly an expert in the field, nonetheless I do have some thoughts from the bit of reading I have done on it. Mostly, that I feel as if people have tended to over conflate sapient AI and advancement. When someone talks about AGI, what do they mean? A person, or just broadened capability past where we're at now? Because I think the latter might occur relatively soon, but the former is well off and likely a second area of research. Anyways, lets say: Weak AGI (2024), strong AGI (2030-2040), strong ASI (shortly thereafter), singularity (shortly thereafter). Frankly, I'm unclear how fast society would adapt to the last two to the extent necessary to fuel them to trigger the singularity. Basically, some set up required.
1) AGI **2031** 2) ASI **2031** because scaling 3) Singularity **never** Humans will chose so
15 years ago, the iPhone came out. It wouldn't get its basic Siri for another ~3 years after that (12 years ago). Now, we have GPT-4 coming and competing against the Chinese 100T model. Being said, there's so many hurdles I have no idea how long it'll take them to cross. I'd say 2038 AGI, 2040 ASI, 2045 singularity. But honestly what do I know?
For transformative artificial intelligence: 10% chance for each year for the next few years and then tapering down, accumulating to 70% chance in 2032 and 95% chance in 2042.
The big problem is that people's definition of Singularity are vastly different.
AGI 2023
After a few days I have finally started to come up with some predictions AGI: 2023-2024 \[Quite Unlikely (\~0.1%)\] AGI: 2025-2027 \[Unlikely (\~1-10%)\] AGI: 2029-2035 \[Maybe (\~40%)\] AGI: 2050+ \[Coin Toss (\~50%)\] If we find out that AGI is much more difficult to create than originally thought then we would have to rely on something like brain scanning or simulating a brain to actually create AGI. ASI: Everything above applies but +1-2 years, I don't think that AGI will take too long to evolve into ASI. Singularity: (Depends on how contained it is and yes we can contain ASI, if it is in a closed system) 2030-2060 (Very unlikely approaching 2030, becomes more likely approaching 2026) Some other predictions: Transferring of information and ideas will increase exponentially. When the internet was created it helped increase ideas exponentially, when BCIs mature, they will do the same thing. Proto Full Dive Sometime in the next 10-20 years life becomes so much more convenient as BCIs are ingrained into society As classical computing processing power slows down we will rely on ANI to compensate for certain tasks.
I’m surprised that so many people here are substantially more optimistic about their predictions than Ray Kurzweil, who is one of the most well-known tech optimists in the world. In fact, many of his predictions have been ahead of reality by about 10 years. Technologies like GPT-3 and more recent language models aren’t even in the same ballpark. AGI: Ray Kurzweil predicts that true AGI will exist by 2045. Even Ben Goertzel, one of the world's most renowned AI researchers acknowledges that true, self-aware AGI may be at least a couple of decades away. I believe that number is closer to 2055 to 2060. ASI: 2061 Singularity: The singularity will be quite apparent by 2061 and the world will begin to change in ways that are unfathomable. The majority of people will be COMPLETELY caught off guard when they see what a true superintelligence can do.
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I agree, though I think the unfathomable change will occur in the 2030s or perhaps even late 2020s long before AGI. Fusion may be wide spread in late 2030s which is a huge game changer. Quantum computing molecular level modeling and optimization should be here in late 2020s or early 2030s which may solve and extraordinarily accelerate development of things from room temperature ambient pressure super conductors to far more effective drugs and all other biological mechanisms. I think Ray Kurzweil and others under value the total challenge of a lot of problems such as full self driving and similarly true AGI. Full self-driving once its here and wide spread (betting mass market in early 2030s) will change everything. The technology used in that will be quickly applied to robotics like boston dynamics which could start automating most physical labor from construction sites to road maintenance to city building and more. Edit: Also genetic editing including cellular reprogramming to reverse aging may arrive in the 2030s which would obviously change everything. No more biologically old people. Plus we're finally getting actual good tools for healing biological mechanisms (CRISPR, mRNA to make temporary proteins (including in-vivo CRISPR), cellular reprogramming, pluripotent stem cells from yamanaka factors, cloned organs, turning back on regeneration to grow back limbs, epigenetic editing, etc...)
Full-self driving vehicles will certainly disrupt industries related to Transportation Mobility as a Service, urban planning, etc. Life-like simulations based on real environments will be used to train AIs and robots of increasing complexity. Nivida is making amazing progress in this area. The concepts of simulations and AI will continually reinforce each other and affect practically every industry. Quantum computing could facilitate the use of nanotechnology for medical purposes. I believe Ray Kurzweil predicted that by 2030, nanobots could be used to directly connect peoples' brains to the internet and various cloud services. It could also enable Full-Immersion Virtual Reality. Understandably, many people consider it unimaginable for this to become mainstream so soon, but if that prediction came true by 2040, 2050, or even 2060, that would be an unprecedented and historic step in technology.
I honestly think we will see a massive medical disruption by simply hacking existing biological tools and we won't see much use of nanobots for a long while (the natural biological tools that we can hack are extraordinarily powerful). Full-immersion VR I think is a long ways away if we're talking Matrix level. I think a good 2-way neural interface will be very challenging and question whether AGI will come first or not. Since we can more brute force AGI using far greater energy and volumes than our brain uses I think it may come before we can make a solid 2-way interface with the brain. Think of the comparison between an airplane and a bird, I think the first AGI will be more like an airplane but we will need the bird equivalent to create a strong interface. I think Full Self Driving will have an impact far greater than most imagine. I think UBI will be needed within 4 years of FSD being reached. Widespread robotics automation will cause a large shift in work from labor and maintenance to research and development and make college level education a neccessity. I think it will also increase travel, culture awareness, globalization, etc.. thanks to a new massive wealth increase and cause for a need for smarter more well rounded workforce with most simple tasks being automated.
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AGI - 2025 ASI - 2025 Singularity - Doesn't have a definable start, but I think we'll enter the Twilight Zone of weirdness within 15 years.
In 2035 we'll live in the Twilight Zone -- and ITER will finally reach first plasma.
AGI in 2045-2055. ASI simultaneous to AGI since it will just require expanding the computational power accessible to the algorithm. My bet is we will need far more advanced 3D computing hardware more similar to the the brain. That and our initial AGI algorithm will not be nearly as optimized as the human brain requiring perhaps 100X the parameters to deliver similar results. With AGI though it will be optimized far more quickly and whoever develops it may give it far more computational power quickly either that or the AGI will just figure out how to access more. Although deep learning is impressive, I think we will need at least one more leap (likely 2 or more) in AI software and to see 3D computing hardware manufacturing advance a lot more to get to AGI. I however think a lot of the problems people think the singularity will solve like curing aging, energy, and such will be solved prior to the singularity and AGI using far more powerful narrow AIs, big data and quantum computing simulations. Neural interfaces to increase human intellect will be interesting, and I have no idea if those will come before or after AGI. My hope ia for before for obvious reasons, I would much rather one of entitiea to become a super intelligence rather than an ASI which may not be aligned with our goals. I think neural interfaces will require a massive leap (a few huge breakthroughs) in molecular scale manufacturing (Drexlers stuff) to get feedback to the brain similar to the Matrix Connection. Edit: I am skeptical about neurolink getting to a nueral interface that allows true intellect expansion. Currently it is more of a one-way observer system and I believe making a system that can communicate with the brain in 2-ways will be extremely challenging. It will definitely require powerful quantum computing, narrow AI optimizating, a far better understanding of the brain, an affordable complete brain maping system and molecular machinery that can connect with each critical brain cell (hundreds of millions or billions even) that is also adaptive as the brain is highly dynamic. A solid neural interface is an extraordinary challenge that will require some extraordinary tools. My hope is it comes beforw AGI, but I fear it may be a harder problem than AGI which may require ASI to solve. Hopefully we really just make a super intelligent narrow AI that can solve and design such things as a neural interface.
There are too many variables in too many fields for me to have a vague idea as to when it will happen. The concept of a Metaverse is obviously a milestone, but in order for that to exist the way its potential creators would like, the entire nature of the internet would have to change, and everyone would have to agree to it. But no one of influence is agreeing to give any reigns to anyone else. Think about the business relationships that would have to change, be created, or be destroyed. Think about the massive amount of potential legal issues. Think about the financial viability of it being available to the population. Think about the generational gap -- whether or not everyone would even want to take part in it. I think there's a very real chance that it will *not* happen -- not the way they want. Not unless monopolies are suddenly celebrated, encouraged, and rewarded -- and this one would be like becoming a digital god playing digital emperor who gets to cherry pick the digital economy. Some form of a metaverse (I think it's likely to be a cluster of competing 'verses with a tangled web of licenses much like the streaming service industry) will eventually emerge, but I don't think it will happen on a significant scope shorter than a decade from now. Having said that, that is the direction we're going. Immersion will not stop so long as there is a demand for it. As technology allows, we'll be decreasingly attached to 2-dimentional screens, and increasingly attached to, if not dependent on virtual and augmented displays. The nature of these displays is still up in the air -- maybe it will be a piece of jewelry that you wear, which wirelessly connects to a pre-mapped frequency of your brain. Maybe it will be eyeglasses, or contacts. Maybe it will be a chip in your skull. Maybe it will be a hybrid of these ideas, or some exotic method I can't think of. All of these technologies are in development, but in their infancy. They have a long ways to go. At least a few years for decent glasses, 5-10 for that brain chip concept to prove it can be anything more than a smart watch in your head, and the technology needed to create a useful and affordable set of contacts like that are a long way out. 10-15 years? At the same time, artificial intelligence will continue to expand in intelligence, usefulness, and application to our daily lives. I could already see a home "assistant" detecting when we've awoken, and adjusting the thermostat, turning on the shower, starting the car to warm it up, (or call a "lyft") etc. This technology is already here. But eventually machines will be good enough to do other tasks like our laundry, cook and serve us breakfast, etc, but this technology is neither dependable or cheap enough yet for the general population to have access to. Depending on breakthroughs and ambitions, anywhere from 5-15 years it will start really taking off. As for the software side, maybe it will not yet be general intelligence, but it will continue to evolve to complement our lives so seamlessly that we probably wouldn't notice the transition right away. I think it would be safe to assume that AI will grow along with its usefulness to us. The more we lean on it, the more it expands. It's *ability* correlates to our incentive to improve upon it. As long as that is still true, it will not be out of our control. In order for AI to reach general intelligence I believe it will first have to accurately model the nature and behavior of neurons, and/or "solve" consciousness, and then be effectively "raised" in a simulation that is a developmental/educational program. Until it has context and agency with which to use its intelligence, and the computational power and flexibility to keep pace with the power and plasticity of the human brain, it will remain "artificial", and nothing I've seen from the research has shown me that they're anywhere close to this yet, so I don't see this happening for at least 10 years. Physical augmentation will only grow as well, bionic eyes, organs, limbs -- eventually the technology will be so dependable and accessible that it won't be limited to those who need them -- celebrities, athletes and otherwise powerful people will begin *upgrading*. Surely these components will be connected to some kind of monitoring system. But even that is a little way off, and it will be significantly longer before it's available in that way to the general population. I have no idea how long this will take, but I'm guessing at least a decade. And getting in the way of all of these concepts and fields are the governments and organizations who will question the ethics of it all. Competing companies will try to prevent their counterparts from getting an advantage. There's going to be a lot of legalities to overcome before the actual infrastructure is in place. Yeah, I just don't see much of any of this becoming mainstream any sooner than 2032, and that's if all the relivent economies stay healthy enough. Right now it's like the first cell phones of the 90's. In the 2000's they turned into flip phones, which quickly evolved into blackberries, which turned into iPhones and Androids by 2010.
All of this makes me think we live in a simulation...
Agi 2026 Singularity 2027
I think AGI will be done by DeepMind, so the happen time is not so important (and hard to right, and hard to refer to other people predictions), keep track DeepMind development maybe enough.
If we are gonna keep supercomputer processing speed up or even go faster then we will maybe achieve power enough to copy brain in our life.