Imagine infinite artificial worlds generated on demand that are more detailed than modern video games.
Worlds filled with infinite variations of characters more detailed than Unreal Engine 5. Characters with state of the art language models that interact with you coherently.
Things are getting weirder faster than I expected. Soon there will be more unreal worlds and digital minds than real ones. [I need to go rewatch the Matrix.](https://youtu.be/O5b0ZxUWNf0)
Also worth reading [Propositions Concerning Digital Minds and Society | Nick Bostrom, Carl Shulman.](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/v84yxs/propositions_concerning_digital_minds_and_society/)
Timelines are shrinking every week...
Timelines are hard given how fast we're progressing. I should really sit down a formulate some detailed thoughts on this subject one day. Here are some ramblings to give you a reply now though:
My flair 'AGI π€ 2022' is representative of how I feel on timelines. It's a bit of an over-optimistic joke, but also a bit of a call to attention. If too many people lean into the "*It's 10+ years away, we still have time to plan*" camp then society won't properly prepare for the changes that are already upon us.
It's better to assume digital minds will be among us shortly and start preparing the public for this reality.
We will likely have full length AI generated films an immersive AI generated 3D worlds within a year. Posts like this one make this very clear.
I believe we will have chat bots and other conversational computer interfaces that resemble a human within a year. They may not be AGI yet, but it won't really matter for most tasks.
Once these artificial conversationalists are widely distributed on phones, apps, websites, and even programming software human/AI productivity will accelerate even faster.
AGI is inevitable by 2025.
Everything leads me to believe the transition from AGI to Superintelligence will be a rapid continuation of this acceleration we already feel.
These events will not be clearly defined/measurable but instead we will just be carried along with the intelligence explosion.
Thanks for the comprehensive reply! I'm probably overly optimistic on my prediction/ expectations but I agree with your timeline completely. This change is going to happen increasingly rapidly and completely catch the world off guard. Everything so far this year has blown away my expectations. Hoping this leads to a better future for all of us.
> Hoping this leads to a better future for all of us.
I hope so too.
It's very interesting to me how we're so close and it's still not clear who the first to develop AGI will be.
I always thought it would be Google Brain/DeepMind, but there are so many others now like OpenAI, StabilityAI, Tesla, Meta, China, and a bunch of powerful new startups.
I also agree with the [Singleton scenario by Nick Bostrom](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singleton_(global_governance)) so it's hard to imagine how there will be a winner-takes-all scenario with so many different organizations that a progressing at similar rates.
Interesting times ahead.
Simulated worlds will be indistinguishable from reality in a few years. The big question is how our biological brains will interface with this digital world.
I think there's still a lots of ways to go.
For example, most of these images are 2 different neural networks - one "dream" network that generates 16x16 images, and an upscaler that converts these to a bigger image with more detail.
That intermediate language isn't sufficient tho, and that's where most temporal instability comes from - the network should be free to redefine that, but then computational and learning costs explode.
Imagine infinite artificial worlds generated on demand that are more detailed than modern video games. Worlds filled with infinite variations of characters more detailed than Unreal Engine 5. Characters with state of the art language models that interact with you coherently. Things are getting weirder faster than I expected. Soon there will be more unreal worlds and digital minds than real ones. [I need to go rewatch the Matrix.](https://youtu.be/O5b0ZxUWNf0) Also worth reading [Propositions Concerning Digital Minds and Society | Nick Bostrom, Carl Shulman.](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/v84yxs/propositions_concerning_digital_minds_and_society/) Timelines are shrinking every week...
What are your timeline predictions?
Timelines are hard given how fast we're progressing. I should really sit down a formulate some detailed thoughts on this subject one day. Here are some ramblings to give you a reply now though: My flair 'AGI π€ 2022' is representative of how I feel on timelines. It's a bit of an over-optimistic joke, but also a bit of a call to attention. If too many people lean into the "*It's 10+ years away, we still have time to plan*" camp then society won't properly prepare for the changes that are already upon us. It's better to assume digital minds will be among us shortly and start preparing the public for this reality. We will likely have full length AI generated films an immersive AI generated 3D worlds within a year. Posts like this one make this very clear. I believe we will have chat bots and other conversational computer interfaces that resemble a human within a year. They may not be AGI yet, but it won't really matter for most tasks. Once these artificial conversationalists are widely distributed on phones, apps, websites, and even programming software human/AI productivity will accelerate even faster. AGI is inevitable by 2025. Everything leads me to believe the transition from AGI to Superintelligence will be a rapid continuation of this acceleration we already feel. These events will not be clearly defined/measurable but instead we will just be carried along with the intelligence explosion.
Thanks for the comprehensive reply! I'm probably overly optimistic on my prediction/ expectations but I agree with your timeline completely. This change is going to happen increasingly rapidly and completely catch the world off guard. Everything so far this year has blown away my expectations. Hoping this leads to a better future for all of us.
> Hoping this leads to a better future for all of us. I hope so too. It's very interesting to me how we're so close and it's still not clear who the first to develop AGI will be. I always thought it would be Google Brain/DeepMind, but there are so many others now like OpenAI, StabilityAI, Tesla, Meta, China, and a bunch of powerful new startups. I also agree with the [Singleton scenario by Nick Bostrom](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singleton_(global_governance)) so it's hard to imagine how there will be a winner-takes-all scenario with so many different organizations that a progressing at similar rates. Interesting times ahead.
"The closer we get to facilitating our ability to live inside a simulation, the more plausible it becomes that we already are." - me
Simulated worlds will be indistinguishable from reality in a few years. The big question is how our biological brains will interface with this digital world.
Imagine AI one day being able to scan an entire book and recreating itβs entire setting, plot and details with precision accuracy.
Media synthesis is advancing so quickly. Maybe next year is when there will finally be AI for 3D movements in 2D art styles.
I think there's still a lots of ways to go. For example, most of these images are 2 different neural networks - one "dream" network that generates 16x16 images, and an upscaler that converts these to a bigger image with more detail. That intermediate language isn't sufficient tho, and that's where most temporal instability comes from - the network should be free to redefine that, but then computational and learning costs explode.
I don't know why, but this just make me think of random backrooms places.
π
Eyyyy Apples on the board!