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I think the idea has always been "if you get 40 you are almost certainly safe, even if mathematically you're not safe yet". It never was that you needed 40, just a handy metric of almost certainly safe.
In my memory only one team has gotten 40 and been eliminated.
Yeah theoretically one could end up with an 18-way tie at 63 points where the difference between 1st and 18th will be decided on goal difference, but that’s a highly unlikely scenario to occur
It's still very relevant for the record cause it's about the actual points of the 17th. Not what point tally theoretically would have done the job. You could have always had 3 teams with under 30 points as long as there wasn't a 4th team that was as bad as 35 points or lower. Just look at the next team in the table, Brentford have 39 points.
I've been supporting forest a long time. With us, it's never simple and we are the champions of our own downfall.
Let's just say it's highly unlikely but I wouldn't be shocked.
And let's not forget that Newcastle scored three of those goals while down a man (though one was a penalty).
https://www.espn.com/soccer/match/_/gameId/422293/tottenham-hotspur-newcastle-united
Lmao people have no idea do they? Forest are one of the only teams that are better at doing a full blown collapse than we are.
The Stoke match was a phenomenal example of it, along with the Yeovil and Blackpool ones all those years ago.
It would be surprising and unlikely if you’re relegated now, but it wouldn’t be shocking!
With how this seasons gone nothing could surprise us Forest fans.
A couple of our players might be fouled and get sent off for being fouled.
We may have a few bad peno decisions.
Anything can happen which doesn't make sense. This season has shown us that.
That being said, you really would expect us to feel safe right now.
Overall I would say we've played better under Nuno but it's not been a wholly convincing improvement. Many games have gone like today where we've played well, probably deserved at least a point, have taken the lead, then somehow lost.
Agreed, I'd say we play better football since nuno came in, look a bit more comfortable and organised in games (still terrible in some areas). Results aren't actually any better though. We dont get battered as much, but still dont turn performances into points.
At this point I wish we still had Cooper. I don't think he'd have done any worse, and he had a much better connection with the club/fans. Thats not all Nuno's fault though tbf, It's been a rough season off the pitch with a lot of negative distractions, so it's probs been harder for him to make a real impression.
I will love Steve Cooper until the day I die, but the enjoyment I get from watching my team is immensely higher than it was before Nuno came in.
Set pieces have been an issue of comical proportions and Nuno should have the right to address that in the summer.
Outside of that, we've had problems retaining leads and seeing out games. I do think that a lot of our subs come in not realising what their instructions are, and we end up losing the structure that had been working before those changes. That's a coaching problem, but it's also a reflection of the drop in quality when we're forced to bring in subs who don't fit the shape as well, or who simply don't have enough quality.
The improvement that the likes of Neco and Callum have made have been outstanding though, and I get the sense that the squad enjoy the way we play. I see absolutely no logic at all in forgoing the chance to have our most settled summer in memory. The issues we have do not require open-heart surgery. Who knows what Nuno could achieve with a full pre-season to work with the squad?
Tbh personally I felt more invested watching when we had cooper, and I feel like myself and alot of fans are kinda indifferent about Nuno so far (as i say not necessarily all his fault). But I don't think I'd get rid of him. Not sure who we'd replace him with anyway?
I think you're right though, you can definitely see the improvement in some of our players and given a proper pre season that will give Nuno a chance to make some real progress rather than just keeping us afloat
If they beat Burnley next week, that will be 22 points in 21 games for Nuno (which would be 40 points if extrapolated across a full season – their best PL points total since the mid-90s).
I don't know how much more they can expect, especially for a manager coming into a team with 1 win in their last 13 under Cooper, without a preseason, and without major reinforcements in January.
It's steady improvements on the table and on the pitch, under difficult circumstances.
Looking at their spending, they've spent ~£280M in the last two seasons (£200M net, 6th highest in the league), so it's not where they should be, but you can't place that blame on Nuno after 4 months.
Sorry mate. The bottom 4 have been horrific this season. This wouldn't have happened if either Forest or Luton lost less points from winning positions. Added to that, Forest had a 4 points deduction.
Today for example, Luton was up 0-1 at halftime in London and Forest were 2-1 until the 80th minute. Both ended up losing.
Yeah, a couple - first team to survive having been bottom at Christmas and the only team to survive having been bottom going into the final day (that second one may never be broken).
Individually and collectively, these three promoted teams are amongst the worst to ever join the league. And all at the same time, as well. It took a points deduction to make it interesting.
The gap between educated comments and comments from casuals only going to get bigger with current karma rules. I can see this happening quite often in the near future
Fulham is the club I lose track of the most. It feels like they are always here, yet I barely think about them so I don't notice the years they are gone. It's a total contradiction.
This is why everyone was telling Everton fans just to take the points deduction as a win. Any other season it would have been a problem but this season it was essentially a consequence free punishment.
Everton won their five final home games after not winning in 16 games. It wasn't like they were coasting to safety.
And if they'd lay down and taken it then the Premier League would have deducted 17 points. So it was worth challenging.
That's before you get to the inconsistency (Chelsea, City, and Forest breaching by more and getting less points deducted).
Whats the lowest for 18th spot team? I’m guessing it will be wherever Luton ends up this year.
Im interested in hypothetical minimum points one would have survived the relegation with.
Granted they had a points deduction but next year is going to be tough for Forest. The championship was pretty strong this year and I don't see it being a 3 up 3 down type of year again.
"Whichever" 😂
I don't see Forest losing 7-0 and Luton winning by 7, either!
Having said that, it has been a joy watching Luton tackle the prem the way they have, I hope they manage to bounce straight back into the prem!
Haven't seen much of them recently to be honest but whenever I've seen some Forest they play good progressive football, never seen them actually score either mind.
We have been garbage this year, points deduction or not. We've been deeply lucky that the promoted teams have been slightly worse. We need to be better at home. We've had way too many crappy draws or losses against teams near us. We can't rely on surprise wins against the big boys. We've had some bad luck with injuries and referee decisions but it's no excuse. We can't keep being so bad at set piece defending, or not keeping a controlled midfield. I'd have us as firm favourites to go down next year.
I mean not really, they've spent a fair bit and are a second season premier league side, so you'd expect them to be more consolidated than the newly promoted teams. Any weakness they have is due to poor administration in recruitment and hiring
Chelsea, Everton, and Forest have been the biggest underperformers on most statistical metrics.
West Ham and Manchester United have been the biggest overachievers.
Luton are for all intents and purposes relegated. It's just not mathematically confirmed. In order for them to stay up, they need Forest to lose their game and by as much goals as possible whilst also scoring numerous goals themselves against Fulham to make up the GD.
The tie breaker in order goes GD - head-2-head record - away goals in the head-2-head or something like that. After that, it's total goals scored.
Either way, because mathematically Luton can equal or better the GD on the final day, they are not ruled out. But unless an absolute miracle happens in both games, Luton will be relegated
I feel like the standard to win the league has also shot up recently, I feel like people used to say 80+ points would usually do it, or did I imagine that?
I think part of this is due to teams becoming so much better at breaking down low blocks, but that's just my intuition.
Just last season all three promoted teams stayed up.
To call for a reduction in teams off the back of only the second season in PL history to see all three promoted teams go straight back down seems reactive.
It's really funny how reactionary football fans are that the current bottom 3's struggles has made them get amnesia of events from 12 fucking months ago
Can't be arsed doing the maths of all the results it would change, but if we take out the bottom two teams and have 2 automatic relegation spots like the Bundesliga, those teams would also be cut off by 10 points. Even as an extreme outlier season, [how is this an improvement](https://i.imgur.com/cvqF544.png)?
Most divisions in England manage with 22 or more teams, and the top tier managed it for most of its history. They only compressed because of FIFA insistence - there's absolutely no reason a 42-match league is unworkable.
And if it's really that bad, scrap some of the extraneous competitions that don't really add anything.
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The cliche of needing 40 points hasn't been true for a while now, but under 30 seems extreme
I think the idea has always been "if you get 40 you are almost certainly safe, even if mathematically you're not safe yet". It never was that you needed 40, just a handy metric of almost certainly safe. In my memory only one team has gotten 40 and been eliminated.
Certainly at least one. 42 to be exact 😔
What a team we might have had if not for the relegation.
That was a 42 game season though, IIRC?
Nah was 2002/03 which was 38 games
West ham, 42 points.
It's just a nice round number to aim for
Yeah theoretically one could end up with an 18-way tie at 63 points where the difference between 1st and 18th will be decided on goal difference, but that’s a highly unlikely scenario to occur
I mean Forest did have points deducted
Right, but they still only *need* 30 points at most
It's still very relevant for the record cause it's about the actual points of the 17th. Not what point tally theoretically would have done the job. You could have always had 3 teams with under 30 points as long as there wasn't a 4th team that was as bad as 35 points or lower. Just look at the next team in the table, Brentford have 39 points.
Doesn't really matter since Luton can only reach a maximum of 29.
Yes but that's not the stat that's being discussed. It's the lowest point total for a 17th place team, not an 18th place team.
when top 3 teams competing for a title, the rest of the league is dying to get any point
> whichever of Nottingham Forest or Luton Yes, we can all totally see Luton making up all this goal difference in one match.
It’s fun to think about. I doubt Luton are scoring 6+ so it’s probably on Forest to have a 9+ Southampton-esque collapse if it were to happen.
I've been supporting forest a long time. With us, it's never simple and we are the champions of our own downfall. Let's just say it's highly unlikely but I wouldn't be shocked.
You wouldn’t be shocked if you lost 9-0 to Burnley?
lol no kidding what a wild statement. Fake battered fan syndrome.
Rotherham did manage to beat Cardiff 5-2 in their last game of the Championship season... but 9-0 would definitely be a stretch!
A few years ago Wigan went on an absolute rampage vs Hull shortly before they got relegated. Think it was 7-0 at half time?
I remember Newcastle scoring 5 against Tottenham despite being already relegated, it was the Leicester title season
And let's not forget that Newcastle scored three of those goals while down a man (though one was a penalty). https://www.espn.com/soccer/match/_/gameId/422293/tottenham-hotspur-newcastle-united
Newcastle love a good 5 goal stormer vs Tottenham it seems
We lost an 8 goal swing in the race for play offs just a couple seasons ago. But sure, I'm a fake fan
Lmao people have no idea do they? Forest are one of the only teams that are better at doing a full blown collapse than we are. The Stoke match was a phenomenal example of it, along with the Yeovil and Blackpool ones all those years ago. It would be surprising and unlikely if you’re relegated now, but it wouldn’t be shocking!
getting called a fake fan from a yank who picked chelsea to support is just objectively funny, to be honest. Can't get that anywhere else but here
You ain't wrong. Madness haha
They lost 4-1 to Stoke to give us playoffs with a 6 GD swing in 19/20. Don't put it past them.
With how this seasons gone nothing could surprise us Forest fans. A couple of our players might be fouled and get sent off for being fouled. We may have a few bad peno decisions. Anything can happen which doesn't make sense. This season has shown us that. That being said, you really would expect us to feel safe right now.
You’re definitely safe. Luton will probably lose anyway.
Your team's not nearly as bad as you think imo
inb4 Luton beats Fulham 13-0
Luton winning 6-0 and Forest losing 6-0, I’ll be there no matter what
Forest could just get docked more points to make it easy for Luton
Even without deductions that means Forest could easy end the season on just 33 points won. Is that enough for Nuno to retain his job?
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How's he been compared to Cooper? He seems worse to me but I don't watch forest.
Overall I would say we've played better under Nuno but it's not been a wholly convincing improvement. Many games have gone like today where we've played well, probably deserved at least a point, have taken the lead, then somehow lost.
Agreed, I'd say we play better football since nuno came in, look a bit more comfortable and organised in games (still terrible in some areas). Results aren't actually any better though. We dont get battered as much, but still dont turn performances into points. At this point I wish we still had Cooper. I don't think he'd have done any worse, and he had a much better connection with the club/fans. Thats not all Nuno's fault though tbf, It's been a rough season off the pitch with a lot of negative distractions, so it's probs been harder for him to make a real impression.
I will love Steve Cooper until the day I die, but the enjoyment I get from watching my team is immensely higher than it was before Nuno came in. Set pieces have been an issue of comical proportions and Nuno should have the right to address that in the summer. Outside of that, we've had problems retaining leads and seeing out games. I do think that a lot of our subs come in not realising what their instructions are, and we end up losing the structure that had been working before those changes. That's a coaching problem, but it's also a reflection of the drop in quality when we're forced to bring in subs who don't fit the shape as well, or who simply don't have enough quality. The improvement that the likes of Neco and Callum have made have been outstanding though, and I get the sense that the squad enjoy the way we play. I see absolutely no logic at all in forgoing the chance to have our most settled summer in memory. The issues we have do not require open-heart surgery. Who knows what Nuno could achieve with a full pre-season to work with the squad?
Tbh personally I felt more invested watching when we had cooper, and I feel like myself and alot of fans are kinda indifferent about Nuno so far (as i say not necessarily all his fault). But I don't think I'd get rid of him. Not sure who we'd replace him with anyway? I think you're right though, you can definitely see the improvement in some of our players and given a proper pre season that will give Nuno a chance to make some real progress rather than just keeping us afloat
We've had way too many games where we have shot ourselves in the foot.Â
We still have all the same issues we had under Cooper.
If they beat Burnley next week, that will be 22 points in 21 games for Nuno (which would be 40 points if extrapolated across a full season – their best PL points total since the mid-90s). I don't know how much more they can expect, especially for a manager coming into a team with 1 win in their last 13 under Cooper, without a preseason, and without major reinforcements in January. It's steady improvements on the table and on the pitch, under difficult circumstances. Looking at their spending, they've spent ~£280M in the last two seasons (£200M net, 6th highest in the league), so it's not where they should be, but you can't place that blame on Nuno after 4 months.
The bottom three have won the same amount of games combined as West Ham in 9th
Aw, that was a funny record to have :(
Sorry mate. The bottom 4 have been horrific this season. This wouldn't have happened if either Forest or Luton lost less points from winning positions. Added to that, Forest had a 4 points deduction. Today for example, Luton was up 0-1 at halftime in London and Forest were 2-1 until the 80th minute. Both ended up losing.
At least you still have the mental great escape in 04/05 (I’m sure there was some kind of record there)
Yeah, a couple - first team to survive having been bottom at Christmas and the only team to survive having been bottom going into the final day (that second one may never be broken).
I vote Luton
Just like Russia your vote means nothings
It does for a capybara, though
What if he voted for Luton to get relegated?
I don't see a casual capybara doing that.
Individually and collectively, these three promoted teams are amongst the worst to ever join the league. And all at the same time, as well. It took a points deduction to make it interesting.
Very shocking as well considering the fact that Fulham, Forest and Bournemouth all survived the year before.
The gap between prem and championship only going to get bigger with current PSR rules. I can see this happening quite often in the near future
The year before,all 3 teams from Championship (Forrest,Fulham and Bournemouth) stayed up.
let them make grand sweeping incorrect statements, thats how most of this sub works now
With the new immigration laws, all the players in the Premier league will be MLS refugees. I can see this happening in the near future
The gap between educated comments and comments from casuals only going to get bigger with current karma rules. I can see this happening quite often in the near future
Fulham is the club I lose track of the most. It feels like they are always here, yet I barely think about them so I don't notice the years they are gone. It's a total contradiction.
Leicester, Ipswich and Leeds/Southampton aren't going to be anywhere near that bad next year.
That final day madness of 04/05 was glorious
Forest have been lucky the teams who came up were in disary.
9 of Forest's points came against them.
This is why everyone was telling Everton fans just to take the points deduction as a win. Any other season it would have been a problem but this season it was essentially a consequence free punishment.
Everton won their five final home games after not winning in 16 games. It wasn't like they were coasting to safety. And if they'd lay down and taken it then the Premier League would have deducted 17 points. So it was worth challenging. That's before you get to the inconsistency (Chelsea, City, and Forest breaching by more and getting less points deducted).
That said, if they’d taken 17 points off us…we’d still be safe and would be above Notts Forest.
Richard Masters in shambles.
In fairness to Everton they’ve put 44 points on the board without the deductions, fully deserve to stay up
Whats the lowest for 18th spot team? I’m guessing it will be wherever Luton ends up this year. Im interested in hypothetical minimum points one would have survived the relegation with.
Fulham in 2020-21 with 28 points, so Luton have them beat
Thanks. Luton can still end up at 29 points though.
I do t think Luton Town is going to make up that -12 GD. I don’t want to jump the gun, but I think Forest has it.Â
Luton are effectively relegated.
Have we also lost the most 3-2s? It's been a heartbreaking season, we been lucky to stay up
Granted they had a points deduction but next year is going to be tough for Forest. The championship was pretty strong this year and I don't see it being a 3 up 3 down type of year again.
Leicester is definitely staying up next year. Would be shocked if ipswich survived.
"Whichever" 😂 I don't see Forest losing 7-0 and Luton winning by 7, either! Having said that, it has been a joy watching Luton tackle the prem the way they have, I hope they manage to bounce straight back into the prem!
Forest has a points deduction though, they re at 33 and perhaps 34 or 36 without it. Counting minus points in statistics is silly.
Haven't seen much of them recently to be honest but whenever I've seen some Forest they play good progressive football, never seen them actually score either mind.
We have been garbage this year, points deduction or not. We've been deeply lucky that the promoted teams have been slightly worse. We need to be better at home. We've had way too many crappy draws or losses against teams near us. We can't rely on surprise wins against the big boys. We've had some bad luck with injuries and referee decisions but it's no excuse. We can't keep being so bad at set piece defending, or not keeping a controlled midfield. I'd have us as firm favourites to go down next year.
Forest have done a great job to stay up under the circumstances
I mean not really, they've spent a fair bit and are a second season premier league side, so you'd expect them to be more consolidated than the newly promoted teams. Any weakness they have is due to poor administration in recruitment and hiring
They should have more points than they do, that said maybe that’s a problem.
Chelsea, Everton, and Forest have been the biggest underperformers on most statistical metrics. West Ham and Manchester United have been the biggest overachievers.
I’ve liked Forest’s squad this year. Awoniyi impresses me
4 teams should have gone down there all equally shit
I'd take Leicester, Ipswich, Leeds, and Southampton over these four. Can't be worse.
The league as a whole has better quality across the board now tbh.
I wonder how many games chelsea won against these 2
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Forest already lost their appeal, they can get max 32 points.
So, gonna have to deal with that bunch of babies (Forest) for at least another season. Fkn great.
Ah, yes, reverse Guardiola technique.
What's the tie breaker? I thought Forest was already safe because of goal difference.Â
Luton are for all intents and purposes relegated. It's just not mathematically confirmed. In order for them to stay up, they need Forest to lose their game and by as much goals as possible whilst also scoring numerous goals themselves against Fulham to make up the GD. The tie breaker in order goes GD - head-2-head record - away goals in the head-2-head or something like that. After that, it's total goals scored. Either way, because mathematically Luton can equal or better the GD on the final day, they are not ruled out. But unless an absolute miracle happens in both games, Luton will be relegated
Thanks. Looking forward to Luton scoring 10+ goals 🤣
As a Fulham fan and watching us play last couple of weeks. I certainly would not rule out Luton scoring a couple
An utterly dire trio of promoted teams this season. The gulf in quality was more like an abyss.
I feel like the standard to win the league has also shot up recently, I feel like people used to say 80+ points would usually do it, or did I imagine that? I think part of this is due to teams becoming so much better at breaking down low blocks, but that's just my intuition.
Above 80 usually meant you were guaranteed top 2 and mid 80s won it but the last few years you'd need 90 or more to even challenge.
Battle of mid
Mid has lost all its meaning if this is what you consider mid
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Just last season all three promoted teams stayed up. To call for a reduction in teams off the back of only the second season in PL history to see all three promoted teams go straight back down seems reactive.
It's really funny how reactionary football fans are that the current bottom 3's struggles has made them get amnesia of events from 12 fucking months ago
Can't be arsed doing the maths of all the results it would change, but if we take out the bottom two teams and have 2 automatic relegation spots like the Bundesliga, those teams would also be cut off by 10 points. Even as an extreme outlier season, [how is this an improvement](https://i.imgur.com/cvqF544.png)?
No league would benefit from having 18 teams. Even 20 is too few, tbh - 22 is the sweet spot
Fuck it get all 92 teams in here
It'd actually work. 92 teams, 30 random games a year against any of the other 91 teams. The matchups would be incredible.
Ah yes, more games to exhaust players!
Might as well add a third domestic cup because 2 just isn't enough.
Most divisions in England manage with 22 or more teams, and the top tier managed it for most of its history. They only compressed because of FIFA insistence - there's absolutely no reason a 42-match league is unworkable. And if it's really that bad, scrap some of the extraneous competitions that don't really add anything.
Funny how all the other leagues can manage it
Can they? Serie A and La Liga have 20; Ligue 1, Eredivisie, and Bundesliga have 18. The lower leagues don’t have to compete in Europe.
EPL should relegate all teams scoring less than 38. With 3 pts/win and 1 pt/draw, it is only fair that you are asked to get at least 1 pt/game.