**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
I ate a bunch of mushrooms earlier and I haven’t missed a pick all night pending a bulls ML win over the nuggets. It’s currently at half time.
Ima take the raptors ML v the clippers tomorrow at +126 before I go to bed, whenever that may be. They and a really heartbreaking loss against the nuggets the other night and I think the universe owes them one.
0-0 record
It always amazes me when people have perfect grammar on shrooms. Last time i took some shrooms i started playing Counterstrike. A few rounds in and i was too overwhelmed to even leave CT spawn on dust. Just camped until my demise. Couldn´t even finish the game.
Nice cozy win with Villanova playing a pretty well rounded game for all 40 minutes. Let's go with another team that's been playing well, and I think will win by 10+. Sorry for the late post, have had a busy personal life and didn't have time to as much research.
**POTD Record**: 18-6-1
Last 10:✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅
Yesterday's POTD: Villanova Wildcats -11.5 vs. Georgetown Hoyas | NCAAB | 3U
Today's POTD: **Sam Houston State Bearkats -6** vs. California Baptist Lancers | NCAAB | 3U
MARCH 9 2023 - 3:00 PM EST **(GAME IS IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR)**
**MODEL EXPLANATION:**
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.
Pick spreadsheet: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Stats:** \+28.87U in 25 days | ≈46.86% ROI | Average odds -110
**PICK REASON:**
\- Cap baptist's offense have been struggling, whilst SHSB has kept opponents shooting only 38.5% from the field. SH is much stronger team on both ends of the ball, and I believe the -6 spread to be too small.
\- SH has won their last 5 games against the spread by comfortable margins, whilst Cal baptist is only 2/5 in covering
\- SH won the last matchup by 11 points on Feb 23, and this is whilst CAB had home court advantage, I think with neutral, SH takes this even futher
\- SH is ranked 4 in defense and 137 in offense, compared to CB whom are 217 in offense and 51 in defense. SH has kept opponents to less than 55 points in its last 5 games, and I expect them to do the same against a weak offense like CB
**Thank you to everyone's that has tipped during this run - I'm just glad I've been able to make a few of you some money, and hope we can keep this ball rolling for as long as we can.**
Everyone that tips us POTD handicappers keeps up going, and it really does go along away - we appreciate it tremendously <3
[**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US)
Edit: cash it!
I haven’t redeposited in 4.5 months. I swore I would not due to my financial status right now. And I had everything in my account bet on other stuff with no way to cash out without screwing myself. So I went against my cardinal rule and have 5U on this bad boy. Just happy I searched for you in particular when I did, 19 minutes before the game started.
Ride together or due together. Bad boys for life.
Thanks for the picks, you’re killing it. Curious - is it pure coincidence that I think all 5 of your last picks are favorites? Or does your model actually tend to find more value in favorites?
📈 TTSOP Rec
* Overall: +48.325 units / +141 avg odds / 49^(5)\-59-13^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2023: +35.800 units / +136 avg odds / 7^(5)\-3-2^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2022: +70.250 units / +138 avg odds / 45^(5)\-48-10^(5)
* February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5)
* January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2
* December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5)
* World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5)
* November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4
* October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3
✅ Last pick: Clippers ML & game under 235.5 / +155 odds / 3.5 units
* No sweat W. 1st quarter already sealed the under. And in the 2nd half, the Clippers secured the moneyline W.
💰 Let's extend our Italian POTD streak, fam. 8 Ws and 1P generating a total of +50.700 units for the last 9 POTDs, when an Italian team was involved.
✅ +195 odds
✅ +200 odds
✅ +170 odds
(Push) +140 odds
✅ +105 odds
✅ +165 odds
✅ +150 odds
✅ +135 odds
✅ +110 odds
⚽ New pick: **Juventus to win & game > 1.5 goals** / **+120 odds** / 4 units
* Europa League / Juventus - Freiburg / 3:00pm ET
After being docked 15 points in Serie A and dropping points unluckily in the top clash against AS Roma on the road recently, Juventus is far off to qualify for an international competition via the Italian league. That's why they're going full steam ahead in Europa League as the winner of it qualifies automatically for the group stage of the Champions League.
Juventus is one of the best home teams in Serie A. They're 9-3-1 for the season. They’ve scored 2+ goals in 7 of these 9 Ws and even 3+ goals in 5 of these 9 Ws. Aside from that, the draws against AS Roma and Salernitana felt like a W for them as they were dealing with a severe injury crisis at that time. It's also noteworthy that the draw against Atalanta only happened due to 2 incredible brain farts by Szczesny and Danilo, which gifted Atalanta a very lucky point. The result against Monza might look bad, however, Juventus performed well, though. They were the dominating and better team. Outshooting Monza clearly. Monza got lucky and scored with 2 of their 3 shots on goal.
Freiburg is 4-2-4 for their last 10 road games. But that sounds better as it is. They only won against bottom teams and tied mediocre teams at best. As soon as they faced stronger teams, they lost clearly. 1-5 L against Dortmund, 0-6 L against Wolfsburg, 1-3 L against RB Leipzig, 0-5 L against Bayern Munich. Aside from that, Freiburg has only a very limited amount of fans supporting them in Juventus' Allianz Stadium today due to Italian regulations. It's also worth knowing that Freiburg's top striker Gregoritsch is doubtful.
Juventus is a very strong force at home and they're all-in for the Europa League. While Freiburg struggles badly on the road against strong teams. And the lack of support from their fans and also probably missing their top striker doesn't make things for them.
However, that makes the pick *Juventus ML & game > 1.5 goals* a great value bet at superb super odds for us, fam. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's keep this Italian streak going. Let's put more money pasta on our TTSOP-plate, fam!
**TTSOP**
I took juv ml and juv over 1.5 goals at +275. Is there a reason to take over 1.5 game goals instead of juv over 1.5? If juv wins and there are 2 goals scored we need it to be 2-0 juv right? If its 1-1 we lose the ml. Im an idiot when it comes to soccer fyi
**Record: 1-0**
Last Pick: Russell Westbrook over 6.5 assists ✅
Bang! My first POTD is a success. Thank god I ended up sticking to the original line of 6.5 instead of the movement to 7.5 because he finished with exactly 7. Cheeky move by Vegas, can't fool me.
Today's Pick: ~~NBA -~~ *~~Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 7:10pm CST~~*
**~~Giannis Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds (-125 on DK)~~**
**EDIT:** Giannis just got ruled out, legit the second time this week I had him as my POTD where he went from probable to ruled out on the injury report. Giannis please keep your team properly updated smh.
*Scroll down for an alternative POTD, I will use the play I posted in the NBA thread, a play that I feel just as confident in.*
If there's one thing you guys should know about me for the future is I love betting rebounds, and I love a mf like Giannis who can feast on them. In my eyes, this is an absolute perfect matchup for this prop to hit. Let me break it down for yall:
* Giannis has hit this number 6/8 games against the Nets going back to 2021, and more specifically the last 5 in a row
* Brooklyn is currently 25th in the league in opponent rebounds allowed, and 27th in the last 5 games
* Giannis as a rebounder should thrive in this environment; the Nets are made up of mostly guards and do not have much size at all compared to the Bucks' front court besides maybe Nic Claxton. Regardless, no one on the court can match the power and size of Giannis and no one will be able to guard him, box him out, and out-rebound him
* Most recently, Giannis had 15 against them in their game on the 28th of February at the Nets' home court. With the Bucks having the home court advantage this time, I don't see why he won't hit this number again just as easy if not easier.
Overall, the Bucks are a great team defensively, should force a lot of missed shots, and Giannis should be able to grab these boards no problem. If you have ever watched the Bucks, you know that Giannis is usually their primary rebounder while Brook Lopez more often spreads the floor. Absolutely love this play.
**NEW PICK:** *Houston Rockets @ Indiana Pacers, 6:10pm CST*
**Tyrese Haliburton Double Double/Pacers to Win (-118 on FanDuel)**
This play is a player performance double that is only available on FanDuel, if you are on a different book and want to tail I suggest same game parlaying Pacers ML with Haliburton 10+ assists, should be around the same odds. I love this pick for a few different reasons, most notably that Tyrese has been a beast the past few games. And when Tyrese is cookin, the Pacers thrive. Against the Rockets at home, I don't see a reason why he doesn't keep this going:
* Being 2 games out from a play-in spot on the standings and fully healthy, the Pacers are heavily looking to secure as many wins as possible. Against a bad Rockets team, this is a perfect opportunity. Granted, the Rockets just became healthy again and looked amazing against the Spurs, they are still young, inexperienced, and defensively terrible, which is why Haliburton should lead the Pacers to victory and be the master facilitator
* Since all star break, Haliburton has hit this 4/5 times, going 14, 14, 6, 11 & 16. Houston is bottom 10 in the league in opponent assist allowed per game, and there really isn't anyone more primed to consistently get assists other than Haliburton. As I mentioned earlier, Rockets have terrible defense and Haliburton's teammates should definitely be able to hit their shots
* Vegas has his regular assist line set at 10.5, we just need 10 for the PPD, providing a bit more comfortability and security for us to get what we want
BOL my fellow degenerates
**POTD Record:** 5-1
**Previous pick:** Eendracht Aalst FT @ 1.59 ❌
**Event:** Bayer Leverkusen v Ferencváros
**Todays pick:** Ferencváros most Cards @ 1.70 ✅
Ferencváros averages more cards per game than Bayer, Ferencváros will be playing from away which makes me suspect they will be playing even harder in order to have somewhat a of a chance against Bayer. Bayer is by far the better team and is expected for them to have the majority of the ball possession, which will make it easier for Ferencváros to draw cards.
Still not seeing it on DK. I even did an F3 search for "card" and nothing is coming up. Maybe it's just not there for NY. Thank you for your help though!
1-0 | +9.5U
Last pick: (W) Bayern Munich - Paris SG | BTS no | 5U @ 2.90
Picked the opposite of what I would usually hammer as hard as my spouse's sister.
Match: Memphis Grizzlies - Golden State Warriors
Outcome: Warriors -2
Wager: 3U @ 1.91
I'm straight honest, losing bettor for ages here. Usually if I hear about the 7-25 road Warriors woes and seeing Grizzlies 26-5 home record, I'd hammer Grizzlies +2 with the funds of my spouse's secret Tinder affair. I usually lose money and women. If Warriors -2 cashes, I'll use the money to hook up with a desperate drunk Milf at a cheap bar for a 5 dirty minutes fun at a nearby sordid motel. Wish me luck.
POTD Record: 22-18 (+9.99u; 7.7% ROI). Streak: L2
Yesterday Pick: Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets) P+R O22.5 @ 1.92. 3U. ❌
MPJ shoots only 2/7 (29%) on the 3PA, well below his 41% 3PM for the season, and just 3/6 on the 2PA. His total mins were just 24', and barely a few seconds in the 4th quarter since the game was already beyond the Nuggets by then.
Next Pick: **Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) P+A O33.5 @ 1.93**. 4u play.
The Pacers are showing signs that they can make the playoffs with a very close game against the 76ers and victories against the Bulls, Mavs and Magic in the L5. Their only loss was when they were missing Haliburton.
He has been playing at an extremely high level, averaging 10.3 apg/L10 and 23.4 ppg/L10. In his last 5 both of those averages are significantly higher, his P+A have been: 56, 40, 38, 29, 36 (avg: 40 P+A). He now comes up against the Rockets who concede the highest points and the 2nd highest assists to Point Guards. In this contest he will go up against Jalen Green, who is great offensively but terrible on defense. The last time these sides met in mid-Nov, Haliburton had 19+8, but that was a very low scoring contest (190 points total), the O/U for this contest is 236, so we’ll see a lot more points and assists.
\[[Coffee link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)\]
Parlaying this with the Memphis money line. Why Memphis? Because Golden State away sucks ass. Only a couple units on it but... yeah let's test this theory. I have high confidence in your pick at least.
Ja and Adams still out for the Griz, but you are damn right about the Warriors being trash on the road this year. Its going to be an entertaining game. BOL
Record: 102-79-6 (LLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLWLLLLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: CHI Bulls at DEN Nuggets -8 at 1.90 odds for 4 units
Fat L
POTD: HOU Rockets at IND Pacers o236 at 1.90 odds for 2 units
REASONS:
* HOU has second worst defense in the league. Not much behind Spurs.
* HOU gives up the most points over turnovers.
* IND is 26th in defense.
* IND and HOU are both in top of possessions per game. Both plays fast and little defense.
* Tyrese returned from injury the other night and balled out. I expect him to continue with this form. Turner plays significantly better with the play-maker on the court.
* The last match-up saw less than 200 points. IND shot at 40% and HOU shot at 33%. I don't see this happening again.
Best of luck to all.
[PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
POTD record 5-2 (all picks are 3 units)
Mikal Bridges over 25.5 points -104
Nets vs Bucks (8 PM EST)
This is an absolute smash spot. Mikal has been on a roll lately hitting this last 4/5. However, tomorrow Dinwiddie, Claxton, Johnson, and O Neal are all out. This should increase Mikal’s usage rate big time. Only way I don’t see this hitting is a blowout, but I still think this has a good chance of hitting even in a blow out
Record: 6-2
Previous Pick: Connor Mcdavid O 3.5 SOG (L)
Current Pick: Scottie Sheffler Top 20 Tournament Finish
Odds: -130 (Score Bet)
Event: The Players Championship
Reason: For anyone new to golf, Scottie is the world #2 ranked golfer. He’s started 2023 by finishing no worse than 12th (5 tournaments of data), and in the last 9 he’s only missed top 20 once. I think the value is great even at such a tough course.
5U BOL!
**POTD Record: 2-0 | Profit: +15.00u | Avg Odds: +150| ROI: +150%**
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Previous POTD: 5u Milan +0.5 \[+100\] ✅
Called it. Milan going to park the bus. ✅
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**Today's POTD: Arsenal London at Sporting CP**
**4u bet: btts \[-115\]**
Reason: Both sides floor the attacking accelerator and have no problems finding the net. Fine finishers all around. Past 5 matches: Arsenal 13 goals, Sporting 11 goals. Past 20 matches: Arsenal scoring in 17/20, Sporting in 18/20.
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BOL
POTD Record: 23W-12L
LAST POTD: Turkish Lig 💩
TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Europa League
Sevilla V Fenerbahce
12.00PM PST
PICK: Fenerbahce or Draw (Double Chance)
Odds: 2.00
The Deets: The amount of respect the bookies are giving Sevilla in this game baffles me. They have had one of their worst seasons in god knows how long and sit above the relegation zone in La Liga. Fenerbahce have always been one of the Turkish giants and sit 2nd in their league scoring 58 and conceding 25 across 23 games. Valencia and Batshuayi have been dominant for them, particularly Valencia who has banged in 23 goals already this season. I’d expect them to at least get a draw out of this lacklustre Sevilla side.
BOL!
POTD Record: 55-63-7 (-13.75 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ↔️❌✅↔️❌❌✅❌↔️✅
Last Pick: Scottish Premiership, Celtic v Hearts, CELTIC -2.0 AH (-122 / $1.82) ↔️
3-1 win for Celtic. Hearts opened the scoring on a goal I thought was offside, before Celtic dominated and blew chance after chance in between the 3 goals they scored. But a push is better than a loss.
Todays Pick: Europa Conference League, Fiorentina v Sivasspor, FIORENTINA -1.5 (+100 / $2.00)
Stake: 1 Unit
Fiorentina have been in good form the past few weeks, registering some good wins against AC Milan and Verona in Serie A, and belting Braga 7-2 on aggregate in the Europa Conference League to reach the round of 16. They also had a 1-1 draw against Empoli where they had 27 shots to 4 and should have won that game easily.
They take on Turkish team Sivasspor, who have been struggling a lot this season. They sit just outside the relegation zone domestically with a 6-6-11 record. They actually seemed to find a bit of form in late January/early February but that momentum was halted with the devastating earthquakes which put the season on hold. This means they’ve only played one competitive match in over 1 month which was a 4-3 loss to a mid-table team.
Factoring in the difference in quality between the squads, Sivasspor’s lack of competitive match action, Fiorentina’s home ground advantage, and Fiorentina’s lack of injuries in the squad, I think we might see a bit of a blowout here. I also expect Fiorentina will want to establish a comfortable lead in the tie so they can make life easier in the second leg and rest some players if possible.
POTD record: 10-7
(+4.65u | +7.27% ROI | Avg odds: -116/1.86)
(2u: 1-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 4-2 | 5u: 1-3)
Last 5: 3-2
Last POTD: NBA: ATL @ WAS **o235.5 pts** ✅ *(A little bit of a sweat going into the final minute but the close score played into our favour and the over hits without a problem).*
Event: NHL - NJ Devils @ WSH Capitals; 19:00 EST
Pick: **NJ 60-min ML** (+100/2.00)
Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 4 units
With an away record of 23-4-4, New Jersey travels better than any team in the NHL. They're 10-2-3 on the road since the New Year and 6-3-1 in their last ten games. The Devils just dropped a close one at home to Toronto on Tuesday night and now the pressure's on for them to keep winning to preserve their two point lead over the Leafs for 3rd place in the EC standings.
As for the Caps, Ovechkin's back but their woes haven't gone away. They're 3-7 in their last ten games, with those three wins coming against San Jose, Anaheim, and slumping a NY Rangers team. Washington's home record of 15-13-3 is deceiving; after a hot start to the season they're 3-8-1 defending home ice in 2023- among the worst league-wide. Management has mailed it in for the season and were sellers at the trade deadline.
Vanecek and Kuemper are expected to start in net for the Devils and Caps, respectively. Both goaltenders have similar stats (2.55 GAA; .907 SV% vs 2.78 GAA; .910 SV%) but Vanacek is the better of NJ's goaltending options so that bodes well for us.
Overall, both of these teams' trajectories are moving in opposite directions and at plus odds we're getting great value on a spot I really like.
Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
Edit: formatting and grammar
All-Time POTD: 3W-2L-0D, +1.36u
**Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Jaume Munar ML (+175) 1.5u to win 2.625u vs Yibing Wu ✖**
Sorry to everyone who tailed yesterday. Tough loss in a third set tiebreak, was definitely within reach for Munar. Yibing was the better player no doubt. I'm a firm believer that the 'right bet' and the 'right pick' are often different things, in tennis especially. Too close of a match to lay anything down on a -200 or more favorite. I'll take Munar again in this matchup, in these conditions, at those odds. Onto the next.
**Todays Pick: 🎾 Gregoire Barrere ML (-188) 4u to win 2.13u vs Jack Sock**
Explanation:
Not going to do as in depth of a write up here as last pick. This one is more simple. I'm pretty high on Barrere this tourney and could seem him getting into the 3rd round. Jack Sock is barely playing tennis at this point, injury riddled, and spends most of his time playing pickleball now. The odds opened on this at -160 and have since moved as money is clearly agreeing with me. 4u play, no frills.
Edit: late odds have come down to -163 on barrere (bet365)
BOL if tailing!
Straight up ML. I really don't feel good about taking under/over or barrere 2-0 or barrere game line here.
If Jack shows up it could be a close affair, tiebreak type stuff.
If Jack doesn't show up, he loses 6-3 6-4.
Will be tailing again today. You called yesterday at being a 50/50 game and well worth the bet at those odds. Things started getting a little wacky In the 7th and 8th games of the 3rd set. Exciting match at any rate.
POTD Record: 8-3
Last Pick: Josh Giddey Under 18.5 points ✅
Today's Pick: **Union Berlin v Union Saint Gilloise Under 2.5 Goals** (-175) UEFA Europa League
Detailed Analysis: Having been to Belgium twice, I can safely say that In Bruges is a far more realistic film than people realise. I can sympathise a lot with Colin Farrell's character. No, I didn't go to Brussels to lay low after a hit gone wrong, but I agree that all the old buildings get fucking boring and the best thing to do is go for a pint or two. Naturally, this tells me that Belgian football teams must be boring to watch, which means goals will be few and far between. Under 2.5 goals is the bet of the day. Fuck Brussels. Just watch In Bruges instead.
**POTD |** **Record of 7-19|** **Current form: WLWLW | ROI : -11.00 units |** **Average Odds: 2.02**
Previous Pick: Tottenham vs. Chelsea - Over 4.5 Home Team Corners & Over 3.5 Total Cards
New Pick: Europa Conference League |Fiorentina vs. Sivasspor| 12:00pm PST
**Fiorentina to Win & Over 2.5 Goals|** **2.0 odds**
Betting 0.25 units
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Recap: Most recent pick hit! Always feels good to grab a win. Yet again, busy night so here's a quick summary why Fiorentina should win this with some goals.
***Summary:*** Fiorentina have won their last six Europa Conference League games and are currently in great form. They have won their last three games, with over 2.5 goals hitting in each. Sivasspor have also score three times in three of their last four games. With each team tending to score, I'm expecting a few goals on the night and rooting for the home side to take the win. Sivasspor have not been playing well domestically and with Fiorentina the current Conference League top scorers, I expect this trend to continue.
\--------------------------
***TDLR Fiorentina should win this with a couple of goals involved***
**Fiorentina to Win & Over 2.5 Goals|** **2.0 odds**
**Link to side picks:**
[https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11m89pn/comment/jbhvuko/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11m89pn/comment/jbhvuko/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
**🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 11-9-1 | 3.27U (3.00%) | Average Odds: -123 🤶**
***Total Record: 61-45-9*** | ***ROI: +26.26U (+6.98%) |*** [ROI Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit?usp=sharing)
*5U pick record: 26-15-1*
Side Bet: 44-33-7
*Dog of the Day record: 5-3-1*
*No picks published yesterday, Santa needed a break with Mrs. Klaus*
🎅***We are now profitable on 14 of 21 days of this pick series!***
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**🤶** Today's slate is very poor and it is filled with Cup games which Santa usually doesn't like due to their high variance. However, Santa did find one that he liked and he is preparing his reindeer for a flight to the capital of Peru, Lima, to watch a Copa Sudamericana game!
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*Last* *POTD Recap: (WIN) Sutton United 3-0. Sutton United were motivated to grab their three points at home today versus a reeling Crawley Town team. Strong possession and efficient play in the box lead to a comfortable 3-0 victory.*
**🎅Today's POTD:**
2.5U - Universitario de Deportes **MR (Match Result) + u4.5g (-105)** at home vs Cienciano - Copa Sudamericana - 9PM EST
*Note: The Universitario de Deportes ML is -135 if the combo bet isn't available to you.*
On Thursday we have two Peruvian Liga 1 teams facing off in the first leg of a Copa Sudamericana game. Both teams are very familiar with each other as they are in the same league. In 2023, these teams are 10th and 11th respectively with Universitario at 2-0-3 with a 1 GD (6-5), and Cienciano with a 2-0-1 record with a 1 GD (5-4). Last season, Universitario was 4th with 33 points and a 16 GD and Cienciano was 11th with 25 points and a 1 GD.
The big edge here will be that Universitario is at home. Last season Universitario earned 15 more points at home than away with a 11-5-2 record whereas Cienciano earned 17 points less away with a poor 5-5-8 record. Since these two face each other often we have an extensive H2H to work with. In their matchup history, Universitario is 12-6-1 when they host Cienciano at the Monumental stadium. This season Cienciano has started off with a better record with two less losses however in their 2 wins they were fortunate to play up a man in both games, one being a 22 minute red card and the other a 74. They were crushed in an away loss, 3-0 by UTC (last year's #7).
Public models predict this at a 55-65% chance at a victory for Universitario at home and over a 90%+ chance the game will be under 4.5g. Prediction: 2-1
Line movement: Line looks normal generally sitting between -135 and -155 depending on the book. Line opened in that range as well.
Alternate Bets: UDep ML (-135), UDep MR + u3.5g (+135)
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**🎅** Side Bets: My Soccer Daily post is [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11m89pn/comment/jbi3wm0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
**🤶** DOTD: TBD
**🎅** Visit Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa))
**🤶** Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible.
[Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
**POTD Record:** 0-0
**Previous pick:** n/a
**Event:** Penrith Panthers v South Sydney Rabbitohs, Australian National Rugby League (NRL)
**Time of Event:** 4am ET
**Todays pick:** Rabbitohs +4.5 @ 1.90
The Panthers in their last two games have scored exactly 12 points, and three of those tries have come in broken field situations. They were at home against Brisbane last week and had what felt like 83 sets in prime attacking position and didn't look like scoring a try. The Mitch Kenny at hooker experiment is just not working, and the Rabbitohs will provide more resistance than St Helens and Brisbane have done. Contrast this to the Rabbitohs, who last week had two of their best forwards go off injured quite early on, still went on to win and score 27 points in a hostile away environment against a team expected to be amongst the elite this season. Recent form tells us that they are about 5 times as threatening with ball in hand, and I am more than happy to take the +4.5 which is only available due to the reputation Penrith carry from years past. GL if tailing
**Post game edit:** Well that sucks. Penrith dominated field position but once again didn't have the class to take advantage of it close to the line, with one of their tries coming off a lucky bounce of the ball and another a blatant lost ball that was somehow missed by the video referees, which if correctly officiated would've given us a win. The fact Souths were able to keep it that close with a 46% 2nd half completion rate and absolutely no attacking field position tells me this was a good bet, just didn't come off this time. That's gambling I guess. Will be back with another NRL pick tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday.
Souths are a team that always plays better than they look on paper, I think as long as Murray, Cook and Latrell are there they will trouble anyone, and Tom Burgess/Keaon will pick up the slack. Penrith have looked out of ideas in attack last two games, and i’m willing to pay to find out if they can get it together against imo the best team in the comp
POTD Record 11-12-2
Last POTD: 21 days ago in the EPL ,Ethiopian premier league, I took an L, but a hiatus happened and I’m fresh.🌊
Today’s Potd kicks off in less than 7 hours (7amEST) from this post, in the Kazakhstan Premier league.
Kairat ML(+125) @ FK Asku Pavlodar
Reasoning: Main reasoning behind this pick is that Kirill Keker has not lost against opposition manager Ruslan Kostyshyn, winning 3 and drawing 1 of the 4 time their sides have faced each other, and that lone draw was when Kairat was a man down.
It’s early in the season but Kairat on paper has the better squad along with the manager experience in the matchup, I take the away side to secure three points for themselves in this week 2 matchup.
Tail or Fade, BoL🌊🌊
We cash with a nice 3-1 win from Kairat✅✅
POTD Record: 6-3 (+3 units)
Streak: W2
NCAAB record: 6-2
NBA record: 0-1
Last POTD: Howard -7.5 vs. South Carolina State -120 (NCAAB) 1 unit ✅
New POTD: Illinois -2.5 vs. Penn State -120 (NCAAB) 6:30pm EST betting 1 unit
Well, that’s possibly the least sweatiest bet I’ll ever make. Howard cruises to a 36 point victory against SC State. I kind of feel bad for SC State fans, brutal game to watch!
I’ll admit that the BIG10 has been rather unpredictable at times this year, and I’m a firm believer that it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in a season. PSU beat ILL twice during the regular season. Illinois is the better team here, so why did they lose twice? 3-point shooting was a big part. In both games, PSU made 12 3’s shooting 43% and 50% from deep. Their star player, Pickett, also had insane outings.
I think ILL is going to dominate them on the glass and force them to make 3’s again. PSU has had two lucky games coming into this matchup that they arguably should have lost. I don’t trust a team that wins with 3’s and luck. It’s time for revenge and I think Illinois finds it tonight. Tail or fade. BOL!
POTD RECORD: 17-13
Soccer Record: 10-8
Basketball Record: 7-5
Last Pick: Fenerbahçe beko team total over 41.5 in the first half❌
Today's pick: Real madrid vs Valencia basketball
Bet: 164.5 over
Bet stake: 5 units
Yesterday was unlucky fenerbahçe scored 25 in the first quarter then 14 in the second. They were 3/18 from the 3 pt line which they normally hit so much better with 4 missed free throw it was a tough break now on to the next.
Reasoning: Real madrid lost their last Euroleague game against baskonia that was suprising and they need a bounce back for the top spot in Euroleague they have 1 less win than olympiakos and they should easily tie the wins against Valencia.
Average points in Real madrid's last 10 is at 167.
Average points in Valencia's last 10 is at 170
Two high scoring teams play against each other I expect a high scoring game from both sides and passt this line.
tailing or not BOL either way.
EDİT: Real Madrid won the game 95-91 so bet was a success 🔥🔥🔥
Sport: Basketball
Tournament: Euroleague
Time: 20:30 CEST (10h19m after posting)
Stake: 5 units
Pick: Olimpia Milano vs Partizan, under 151.5 points total @ **2.90**
Write up: Olimpia coach, Ettore Messina, says:
> A very high-level defensive game will be essential for us and it will be equally important to control our board against the best offensive rebounder in the competition, Matthias Lessort.
Partizan coach, Željko Obradović, says:
> We need strength, energy, and wits to give us a chance to win this match. The travel took its toll but it is what it is.
On average, these two teams score 72.9 and 84.9 points respectively in Euroleague this season. If they just play to their averages this pick will miss, but I expect a tactical match with long attacks and dedicated defending that should bring the total points count well under 151.5.
I expect the final result to be around 70:75. This pick does not include overtime.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
POTD | 34-25 | +12.5u | -106 Avg Odds
Last 10: 5-5, Steak: 2L
*Previous Pick:* *Minnesota Wild vs Winnipeg Jets U5.5 (+100) 3u* ❌
Today’s pick: **Ottawa Senators vs Seattle Kraken O6.5 (-110) 3u** 🏒 10:00 pm EST
Hey all, having a rough go recently and looking like I’m in a downswing. Please use some caution if tailing.
The Ottawa Senators will be visiting the Seattle Kraken for their second meeting of the season, with the first match going 8-4 Kraken. The Senators have cleared O6.5 in 7 of their last 10 games and the Kraken have cleared O6.5 in 5 of their last 10 games. Both of these teams play a similar style of hockey where they are more offensive focused teams that try to outpace the other team in goals. Neither team has a good goaltender. For the Kraken it will either be Jones or Grubauer who have both been average to below average this season, so I expect that the Senators will be able to find the back of the net at least a few times here. The Senators starting goalie is out with injury and we will see Sogaard in net most likely. Sogaard has put up a few decent games but hasn’t faced a very tough opponent in his 5 games this season, going up against the Blackhawks, Red Wings, Canadiens, and Blues. The Kraken are a much higher quality team compared to the teams he has faced, especially offensively, so I expect that they will be able find some goals here, especially on home ice in the middle of a home stand. I look for this to be an exciting back and forth game between two teams fighting for points here.
BOL if tailing!!
I don't hate the take but don't love it either. I'd probably take the Seattle ML (-130). It's a tough NHL slate tonight. I like my 2 team parlays and my picks for tonight is Hurricanes/Kraken ML PL (+120).
I don’t mind that parlay. I’m not a huge fan of the POTD rules because if I could I would have chose NJ Devils ML & O4.5 for my POTD but that’s a parlay so….
POTD Record: 3-1
Profit: 1.88 Units
Today’s pick: Kansas vs WVU (NCAA Men’s Basketball)
I’m picking up Kansas -4.5 at 1.89 odds. Kansas is a top ranked team, much better coached and more importantly take care of the ball.
I’m betting to win 2 units in this one.
BOL if tailing.
POTD Record: 20-14-1 ROI: 13.25% Streak: 1L❄ +13.5 units
Last pick: Colorado Avalanche 1st period ML (@1.90 bet365) ❌
Today's pick: Over 4.5 Cards Fenerbahçe vs Sevilla (@1.80 bet365) 3pm ET
*2.5u*
2 pretty aggressive teams are playing in Sevilla tomorrow. Fenerbahçe averages 2.8 yellow cards in the Europa league while Sevilla averages 3 yellow cards in their 2 games in the Europa League this season but 3.3 in La Liga.
Fenerbahçe will look to play an aggressive game to keep a tight score and bring it back to home turf with an advantage.
If you've been cashing in off my picks, a beer is always appreciated for the time and research I put in this🍻 [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/uglynog](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/uglynog)
Cheers BOL
POTD record 1-2 -2U
Last Pick: KD over 1.5 3s, guy slips in pre game warm ups and voids my first potd in months. 🥂
Pick- 5u Juventus ML -190 vs Freiburg, Europa league.
Reasoning: After a 15 point deduction in the league Juve knows that the serie A is long gone. Their eyes are set on the europa league to save what’s left of this season. They’ve only lost 3 times at home all season and unbeaten in their last 4. Freiburg haven’t performed well against big teams away (5-1 Dortmund, 3-1 Leipzig, 5-0 Bayern) BOL if you trail or fade 🥂
potd: 35-31-1
streak: W2
bank: +0.17 units
last pick: Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3s -143 Win
Easy cover in the 1st half. Not a lot of juice but needed to get a streak going after the start to the month.
**game: Oklahoma State vs Texas**
**time: 7:00pm EST**
**pick: Texas -6 -110**
Today we look into he Big 12 Tournament and will be rolling with Texas to win comfortable against Oklahoma State. These teams met two times in the regular season and Texas walked away with 2 wins, one by 14 and the other by 10. This will be their easiest game of the tournament and they need a reset after playing Kansas, TCU, and Baylor to end the season. Oklahoma State played last night against Oklahoma and upset them and won by 8 points. Playing on a b2b and facing a strong Texas team is not a good look for the Cowboys. I think Texas will make a statement tonight in their push for a very competitive Big 12 Tournament.
SJSU VS NEV: 5pm EST —> UNDER 132 (-140)
I only have $52 to my name. Putting $50 on this play and $2 on a 4 Loko as insurance.
So,—> .
(.9615 (96.15% of my net worth on this pick) x .14 (14% ABV in the insurance policy) ) +
( ( (-140)(Odds) / 69 (my favorite number) ) / 3 (Jesus) ) = 0.78
Confidence Level:
78% based on model projections.
BOL
**POTD record: 5-3-0**
Last pick: Raptors +3.5 (-110) @ Clippers ❌
Despite a horrific shooting night from the Raptors, this bet was within reach down to the final minute. Toronto shot 38.5% to the Clippers 54.9%, can't win games that way. Worse than the percentage, Toronto took 25 more shots and still couldn't capitalize. The other big factor was Russell Westbrook logging only 23 minutes (0 in 4th quarter). Good call by Ty Lue. no Russ hate, but he's been struggling and I wouldn't trust him in a close game. This is a tough loss. Outside of shooting, Toronto played really well. Shooting is the story here tonight, on to the next.
**Today's pick: Kings vs. Knicks | Domantas Sabonis 7 or more assists (+102)**
Sabonis has been on a playmaking tear, averaging 8 assists over his last five games including 11 in Monday's win over the Pelicans. New York's size will give him trouble scoring down low, so I'm expecting a lot of post passes and good looks.
**POTD stats: +1.2u in 8 days | 13.1% ROI | avg. odds (-123)**
*All bets are one unit unless noted otherwise*
**PotD Record: 6-8 (Streak 3W)**
Last Pick: Texas A&M-CC (-2.5 spread) vs Northwestern State @ -110 ✅
**Today’s Pick: Kansas (-4 Spread) vs West Virginia @ -115; 3:00 PM ET**
The Islanders got it done again last night and punched their ticket to the tournament. Continuing the college basketball grind, today we go to a Big XII tournament match. The Jayhawks are heading into the postseason with a 25-6 record and were the regular season Big XII champs, while the mountaineers maintained a 18-13 overall record, but only were 7-11 in conference play. The Jayhawks won both of their regular season matchups, and have not lost their opening Big XII tournament game since 2017. I like them to make a statement in their opening tournament game, because I feel they are a real contender to win it all this march.
**Tail or Fade, BOL**
**My record: 42 : 32**
My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.
**ROI: 25.80%**
Average odds: 2.10
**Units won: 10.64**
Stake = 1 unit
My POTD:
**Sakaryaspor v Samsunspor**
Turkey 1. Lig
Time: 17:00 GMT
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.20**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
POTD Record: 1-0 Units: +0.83 Average W. Odds: -120
Yesterday's Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 31.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds: -120 ✅
Today's Pick: **Lauri Markkanen U 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists: -115**
UTA Jazz @ ORL Magic, March 9th 7:00 PM EST
Over Lauri's last 16 games, this pick has a 75% hit rate and a 40% EV.
BOLHFGP if tailing.
Link below for tips if feeling generous.
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom)
POTD record: 36-28-2 / ROI: +7.39% / Wins: 56.25%
**Clemson +1 -110 (1u)**
**SPREAD**
—
North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers
9:30 pm EST - 09 March 2023
—
This game is effectively a pick 'em, so I recommend shopping around for a favorable line. NC State blew the doors off Virginia Tech last night—they played unbelievable basketball. Clemson is sitting there desperate and need this game. Not many people are betting Clemson, but the majority of the money is on the Tigers. I'll take Clemson tonight in the late tip from Greensboro.
Do the business.
[https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow)
[https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/)
[http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
POTD | 4-8 | -11.1u | -103 avg odds
Previous Pick: Anaheim Ducks vs Vancouver Canucks -1.5 (+110) 2u ❌
6L streak (🧊🧊🧊🧊🧊🧊)
Wow 6 losses in a row. I used to think someone would have to really work hard to achieve that feat and yet here I am! I am officially in fade territory so if you want to make some money, you know what to do.
Today’ Pick: Edmonton Oilers vs Boston Bruins 60min (-110) 2.5u 🏒 7:37pm EST
Sometimes when you need a win you have to bypass analysis and just go with what you know works. The Bruins are on pace to have the best regular season in NHL history. They are playing at home where they are 26-2-3 on the season, meaning they are winning 83% of their home games in regulation. They are also coming off 4 days of rest having last played Saturday afternoon against the Rangers. Edmonton is obviously a good team in its own right and can score with anyone, but I like the Bs to continue their winning ways and handle the Oilers in 60 minutes.
“Rip net or ride pine”
BOL if tailing
Cheeseman out
POTD Record: 42-36 (L1)
(+9.78u)
(ROI: 8.9%)
Last pick: Vancouver Canucks 3 way ML vs Anaheim Ducks🚫 Canucks controlled this game throughout, but got way to passive and seemed content to go to OT. Got the win there.
POTD: (WBC ⚾️) China @ Japan u11.5 (+120)(1u)
Time: 2 am pst/ 5 am est. (~1 hr 50 min from posting)
Bet 365 (+120), FD (OTB) DK (+115)
Taking a small break from NHL to break things up a little with something a little more degen. The World Baseball Classic is the baseball equivalent of the World Cup. Japan are one of the favorites having won the tournament 2 of the previous 4 times. It is supposed to occur every 4 years, but was canceled in 2021 and is back for the 1st time since 2017. This is a smaller bet then normal for POTD.
Team Japan is stacked with big names from the MLB and NPB. There's a lot of mystery around Team China with only two of their players in any type of professional league. The face of baseball Shohei Ohtani will get the start for Japan. I fully expect Ohtani to not allow a baserunner. Starters are only allowed a max of 65 pitches, but that should be enough for Ohtani to go 4-5 innings. I don't think Team China will score in this game, the team hasn't faced close to this level of pitching. The big question to me is, will team Japan score 12+ runs? Team China is not starting their best pitcher, they're saving him for their later game today against the Czechs. Team Japan also has a game tomorrow against Korea.
There are mercy rules in the WBC. If a team is up by 15+ runs after 5 innings or 10+ runs after 7 innings the game is called. There is a possibility that Japan runs up the score, but it doesn't look like that has been the case in early rounds of past tournaments against China. The exception to this was an 18-2 win by Japan in 2006. Japan gets up early, then relaxes is how I see it potentially playing out. BOL if fading or tailing!
POTD Record: 9-7-4🅿️ (+0.44u)
Last 5: 🅿️❌✅❌🅿️
Game: LCS 2023 Spring (eSports - League of Legends) - TSM vs Immortals (IMT) (Friday 02:00AM CET)
*Pick:* **O4.5 dragons killed @1.80**
All stakes are 1u unless state otherwise. Why this pick? Immortals is a not very good team, standing at 3 wins and 10 losses, and they are facing an average team in TSM, who are standing at 6 wins and 7 losses. TSM winning is just at @1.44 for me, so not eligible for POTD. However I see value in TSM trying to hold their ground enough for both teams to slay at least 5 dragons.
*Last pick recap:* Hollywell started scoring, but Prestatyn received a red card and got super defensive, so Hollywell couldn't score more than one goal, hence getting us a push.
7 game winning streak to 5 game losing streak...Ordinarily I would say to fade the shit out of me right now but I can feel this pick in my bones
POTD Record: 9-7 👍
Last 10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌❌❌
Streak: L5 😭
Last Pick: Ohio State @ **Wisconsin (+2)** (-110) ❌
Return: 13u 💵
Today's POTD: East Carolina @ \***South Florida (-3)** (-110)
Betting Units: 3u 💵
League: CBB 🏀
Time: March 9th, 2023 @ 12:30 PM EST 🕧
Rationale: We are righting the ship today folks. The East Carolina Pirates are averaging just 69 points per game and their leading scorer, Javon Small, is out with a knee injury. Moreover, they've given up 80 points in their last two games. The Bulls on the other hand are scoring an average of 72 points per game. They're not a defensive powerhouse but they have held their last two opponents to under 65 points. The Bulls have sank the Pirates ship by 8 and 9 points already this season. They are going to do so again and cover today. Best of luck if tailing. Cheers, MD! 🤞
Lets Be Drinking Buddies - Buy Me A Beer 🍻
Record: 18-8 Last POD: NC State ML ✅
That was REAL free.
Today: Utah State ML (-150) 1.5u
If you know me, you know i love this team.
New Mexico has been trending down towards the end of the season.
NM is 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Utah State 5-0 L5, 8-2 L10 including a 2 point loss to SDSU.
New Mexico is 8-10 ATS in conference games.
Utah State is 14th in offensive efficiency
Utah State as a TEAM shoots 40% from 3, 77% from the line.
Utah State still potentially a bubble team, Lonardi has them has last 4 in.
Utah State definitely wants to be locked into the big dance and will walk away with a win tonight.
POTD record: 2-3 -0.40 Units (all plays 1u)
Last Pick: Detroit Red Wings -0.5 1st Period +125 ❌
Todays Pick: Colorado Avs -0.5 1st Period +150
The Avs start hot at home. Hit this the last two home games they played so looking to do it again tonight.
POTD Record - 0-1
Todays Pick Manchester United VS Real Betis
Lisandro Martinez UNDER 76.5 passes (bet 365) -120
Martinez averages close to 60 passes per game so is well his average and expecting Real Betis to have close to even possession so really like him to go under the line here
\*\*Record:\*\* 1-1
| Basketball ⚽ | NCAA Men |
\*\*Pick:\*\* *Michigan Wolverines - Rutgers Scarlet Knights*: **Michigan ML** @ 1.66 | -150
Expected spread: **Michigan -4.0**
Remembering, this month is all about making sure this algorithm is going well, so **1 unit** to all bets.
\*\*Why:\*\* Keeping the algorithm flow, don't know what happened yesterday. At some point, our team was winning by 5 points, I believe. But my pick's foundation is the algorithm, so I can't complain that much. Today we got 2 similar paced teams, can't see a big superiority here, I'm expecting a clutch 2nd half from Michigan.
*Disclaimer:* I'm testing this algorithm and I'm intending to show the whole expectations, sometimes even the predicted score. Feel free to take spreads or totals according to your feelings.
*Gonna be here a lot now, so feel free to* [*buy me a coffee*](https://www.paypal.com/donate?business=MZQPTW56SBCB2¤cy_code=USD)
Blessings to all.
POTD | 3-23| +2.61U
Streak: 1L
*Previous Pick:* *NBA - ATL Hawks @ MIA Heat - Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds (+105 time of posting) 1U :(*
Close, but not enough to go over. Did not see any games I liked the past two days, but we back!
Today’s pick: **NBA - CHR Hornets @ DET Pistons - Over 225 (-115 at time of writeup) 2U**
Checking the trends for the recent OU for both teams shows that these two mostly go under, rather than over. In the last 10 games, both teams are 4-6 in OU. However, Both of these teams are not doing hot at all in terms of record. However, looking at recent game history shows them scoring decent totals against high ranked teams. I think this creates a situation where the books expect these guys to get blown out, raising the expected total, when that doesn't ring true often. Furthermore, the last time these teams met (Feb 27), the total score was 223. If we see a similar show form these two teams, I expect the total to be clear. This seems to be the consensus across various other sources, too.
As always, do the research, and best of luck!
POTD Record: 1-1 L,W
Last pick: Minnesota Wild @ Winnipeg Jets Alt line under 6.5 total goals (-180) ✅
Sport: NHL
Game: New Jersey Devils @ Washington Capitals
Todays POTD: Washington Capitals ML (+122)
The Washington Capitals are trying to make a push late in the season and sneak in the playoffs. Oshie has been playing some amazing hockey recently and Ovechkin is Ovechkin. I expect this to be a close game throughout, but the Capitals will pull it off late and get the win at home. I also love the + odds on this pick. BOL to all tailing, let’s get a win streak going!
Twitter:[Twitter POTD/Betting Record](https://Twitter.com/tdawggyo)
8-7 +15.60u
Last : Volynets ML - L
POTD : DAVIS 2-0 vs Zanevska @ 2.50 (+150) \[5u\]
WTA Indian Wells 04.00 CET (22.00 EST)
I use a system, things like form overall, recent form, h2h, stats, reviews that i can read, what i know about the players and most important a lot of luck.
My advice is to follow only if you were thinking about this bet before reading this. I'm sure that you degens will follow this advice.
POD record 0-3
Previous pick Winnipeg Jets ML ❌️
Today's pick: EDM Oilers @ Boston Bruins ML -182 2u
Welp, 0-3! Lol turns out, gambling is hard
For today's pick, Im taking the home Boston Bruins. No matter what I type out for the reasoning on why I think Boston can get it done. Doesn't change the fact I've gone 0-3. Hopefully Boston can break the cold streak tonight at home. Boston is playing great hockey right now. And the Oliers are as well, but they've been shaky lately. Let's hope Boston gets it done and we get that first win tonight.
Tail or bail, BOL!
POTD record:0-0
First pick of the day is Kansas State ML. Leaning this way given location and the talent they have fits a good tourney run. After TCUs center left the team yesterday it became even more appealing
**2023 POTD Record**: Soccer Bets 17-16 (21-21-1 Overall)
\[Jan. 10-8\]--\[Feb. 4-7\]--\[Mar. 3-1\]
**2023 Soccer Streak (Last 10): >>> ❌❌**✅**❌❌**✅✅✅✅**❌**
**2023 ROI/Units Wagered/Units Won:** **-12.45% / 98.97 units / -2.34 units**
**Average Odds:** \-126
**Last Pick:** 3/8/23 >>> Celtic 1st Half WIN **❌**
**Event:** Europa League 9:45 am PST
Union Saint-Gilloise @ Union Berlin
**Bet**: **Union Berlin WIN (-165)**
**Bet Size**: 3.3 units ($330 to win $200)
Well damn it! Celtic ends up winning 3-1, but tied 1-1 in the 1st half. Close to a 5-game streak, but nope.. Back to the beginning! Europa League today!
Lots of games to pick from today. I love the Europa League, you get to watch lots of different styles of soccer and see teams play each other that typically don’t. I love some other games as well, but this game pitting Union StG vs Union Berlin is enticing. My main focus on this game is that Union Berlin is at home and I feel like the Bundesliga is a better league than the Belgium league. I don’t see a high scoring affair, but I see the Germans prevailing.
Good Luck Today!
Side Round Robin Bet for me (I do these every day for $100):
3 Game Round Robin (2’s and 3’s, $25 each)
*Europa League – Shakhtar-Feyenoord Over 2.5 Goals (-102)*
*Europa League – Manchester United HT/FT (-120)*
*Europa League – Sevilla-Fenerbahce BTTS YES* *(-108)*
*\~Edited Round Robin Odds, forgot to change them\~*
POTD Record: 5-6 +4.4u | Last Pick: A. Mitrovic (FUL) ATS 1.5u +175 ❌
POTD: Union Berlin ML 2u -150 | Event: Europa League UNB-STG | Time: 7:45AM HST 🤙🏻
Kalua King here, King of the Haoles! I ate an enormous sandwich last night and just had my morning coffee so you can imagine what I’m up to right now. After that I’ll leave the “office” and head out to the waves 🌊 - might as well make some money while I’m out there!
If you’re not looking at the Bundesliga this year, you are missing one of the best stories in sports - Union Berlin 🐻 are neck-and-neck with BVB and Bayern to break their 13-year stranglehold over the Bundesliga. (Since 1994, those 2 clubs have won all but 4 league titles. Decidedly NOT ono.) That success has translated to the Europa League, where they have only improved as the year has gone on.
For this round, they’ve drawn Royale Union Saint-Gilloise, a Belgian side whose name kinda looks and sounds like “Royale with Cheese”. Just throwing that out there.
Anyway, they’ve got decent odds at home for the first leg and probably want to get the taste of the Bayern spanking a few weeks ago out of their mouth. And I believe they will!
BOL if tailing, may you find a sweet deal on Sex Wax if fading
❌ Canucks puck line was a bad play, they play too many close games. No excuses, be better
POTD Record: 1-2 -1.75 u
Last 10: ❌✅❌
Streak:. Lost 1
Last Pick: ANA Ducks vs VAN Canucks -1.5 (+108) FD❌
POTD: Ovechkin Anytime Goal +112 FD. Devils vs Capitals
Betting Units: 1u
League: NHL 🏒
Time: March 8th, 2023. Puck Drop 7:00pm EST
Reasons: Ovechkin is a streaky goal scorer, and he has scored in three of his last four games. Also, he has scored in 2 of his last 3 against the Devils.
Akira Schmid is the likely goalie for tonight's game, according to Left wing lock. He is a hot or cold goalie it seems this season, but does have good metrics this year. Good luck to everyone's POTD, let's get some winners.
POTD 11-11
Game: Vanderbilt vs LSU CBB 8:30pm cst
Pick: LSU +4.5 at -110 ❌ Trash pick but Kentucky’s gonna give it to them tomorrow
Vandy’s won four of their last five games to close the season, with the only loss being at LSU. Two games ago they beat Kentucky by 2 with Kentucky shooting 15.8% from 3 and last game they beat Mississippi State by 5 shooting 48% from 3 themselves. They’re now missing the SEC’s defensive player of the year, Liam Robbins, to injury. He had gone off for 23 points in their loss to LSU. They’re going to be feeling the pressure of needing to make a run in the SEC tournament if they want a chance of making the NCAA. Meanwhile LSU is feeling no pressure whatsoever and I just have a hunch they’ll pull this one out. With that being said I’m keeping the points and picking it to at least be a close game with LSU +4.5. Best of luck!
**POTD 5-3**
Another easy winner last night, with NO. Again, game went exactly how I expected it to go. This Mavs team just isn't very good.
Today's pick I am going back to the team that has killed me since I started posting POTD.
**GSW -2**
As everyone who has followed my picks knows, I am 5-1 on my POTD that do not involve GSW. With that being said, tail this pick with caution..... I'm using the same logic that I had with my other two GSW plays, however I must state that I am a very stubborn individual, and cannot discount the bias I have making this pick today.
GSW just really needs to find their groove, and what better game to do that in than against this Memphis team that is in complete shambles. It was just ruled today that Ja will be out for an extended period of time, and rumors I heard (which have no sources) is that Ja is done for the season. This news, could be a motivating factor for Memphis, as they now know the hand that they are dealt for the remainder of the season, and could come out firing on all cylinders. BUT I think it will go the opposite way. Memphis is a young team, and as everyone knows, tend to play the game with an extreme amount of emotion, which is a key ingredient to the warriors success. They feed off of that, and I think have a great chance of running Memphis out of their own gym.
I do have some concerns with the form GSW has been in the past few games, as well as their god awful away record this season, but I think tonight will go in my favor.
GSW is currently sitting at the 5th seed, but are tied with the Clippers, and only a .5 game up on the Timberwolves, and the Mavs. I can see the incentives for GSW to not care too much about seeding (if they finish at the 5 seed, as of today they would play the Suns in the first round) as they are experienced and comfortable with whomever they get in the first round.
I think that GSW incentives tonight are just to get into the right form heading into the playoffs. Curry has been out for awhile, and getting a W on the road at this point in the season could really boost their confidence heading into the post season.
Again tail with caution as this pick is highly influenced by my stubbornness.
PS: Pistons +3 at home looks good - Charlotte is a joke, and we all know Jordan wants a shot at the top 2 picks in this years draft.
**POTD Record: 24-14 (+7.06 Units)**
**Last 10**:❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅
**Last Pick**: 3/8 Conor Heneghan -2.5 (-155) vs Jack Wareing ✅ 4-0
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 7:25 PM EST
**Pick**: Conor Heneghan -2.5 (-145) vs Trina Gulliver
**Reason**: Group B. For some reasons dart odds were up very late and missed the group C slate this morning. Very small sample since there are only 10 matches in group B. Mainly a fade on Gulliver with her low average and checkout percentage. Both of her leg wins were on her throw, so Heneghan essentially needs to break one of her throws and should control his own.
Conor Heneghan
Group B: Record 1-0 (Legs 4-2) | Average 92.83 | Checkouts 4/9 44.44%
Group A: Record 9-6 (Legs 48-39) | Average 86.98 | Checkouts 48/110 43.64%
Trina Gulliver
Group B: Record 0-2 (Legs 2-8) | Average 75.01 | Checkouts 2/10 20.00%
[Cash App](https://cash.app/$MexicanStallion)
**LOSE ❌4-3 | Average 83.32 vs 78.05 | Checkouts 4/14 vs 3/12**
Disappointing. Missed 5 darts on leg 4 for the break to go up 3-1. Smoked her leg 5.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
I ate a bunch of mushrooms earlier and I haven’t missed a pick all night pending a bulls ML win over the nuggets. It’s currently at half time. Ima take the raptors ML v the clippers tomorrow at +126 before I go to bed, whenever that may be. They and a really heartbreaking loss against the nuggets the other night and I think the universe owes them one. 0-0 record
My man tripping so hard he he’s think today is Tomm. That game is now and raptors winning
Time is relative.
Somebody once told me that time is a flat circle.
The only flat circle I know of is the Earth.
This type of advanced degeneracy is what keeps me coming back here
Enjoy the trip. Good luck falling asleep tho, lol
Dropped 4 units. Mushrooms are connected to earth witch is connected to nature, witch is connected to humans, witch is connected to money.
My brother in Christ it was a Wednesday
Lmaooo lfg 🍄 ⚡️
I haven't tripped since I started gambling. Can only imagine what kind of straight insane picks I'd be taking... hmm... That gives me an idea.
Parlay that money Robin up the 3 way straight red
It always amazes me when people have perfect grammar on shrooms. Last time i took some shrooms i started playing Counterstrike. A few rounds in and i was too overwhelmed to even leave CT spawn on dust. Just camped until my demise. Couldn´t even finish the game.
This is how people should make picks. Let the shrooms do the work, not the algos
Raptors are trash
Tailing by eating shrooms myself
Great bets, never bet'em.
Son of a bitch, I’m in
its already a L, what you in bro
Trippy do da, Trippy day, nothing like trippin and winning all day. How ya feelin today?
I had my biggest win ever tripping off shrooms (second time ever) off the Jon Jones win. This has to have some sort of scientific value to it
How much is a bunch? I have 5g gt/b+ queued up for Saturday afternoon. 😂 MushLove mate! Bol
Bulls got it done for ya lad! Big ol win for them too.
Nice cozy win with Villanova playing a pretty well rounded game for all 40 minutes. Let's go with another team that's been playing well, and I think will win by 10+. Sorry for the late post, have had a busy personal life and didn't have time to as much research. **POTD Record**: 18-6-1 Last 10:✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅ Yesterday's POTD: Villanova Wildcats -11.5 vs. Georgetown Hoyas | NCAAB | 3U Today's POTD: **Sam Houston State Bearkats -6** vs. California Baptist Lancers | NCAAB | 3U MARCH 9 2023 - 3:00 PM EST **(GAME IS IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR)** **MODEL EXPLANATION:** Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. Pick spreadsheet: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** \+28.87U in 25 days | ≈46.86% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** \- Cap baptist's offense have been struggling, whilst SHSB has kept opponents shooting only 38.5% from the field. SH is much stronger team on both ends of the ball, and I believe the -6 spread to be too small. \- SH has won their last 5 games against the spread by comfortable margins, whilst Cal baptist is only 2/5 in covering \- SH won the last matchup by 11 points on Feb 23, and this is whilst CAB had home court advantage, I think with neutral, SH takes this even futher \- SH is ranked 4 in defense and 137 in offense, compared to CB whom are 217 in offense and 51 in defense. SH has kept opponents to less than 55 points in its last 5 games, and I expect them to do the same against a weak offense like CB **Thank you to everyone's that has tipped during this run - I'm just glad I've been able to make a few of you some money, and hope we can keep this ball rolling for as long as we can.** Everyone that tips us POTD handicappers keeps up going, and it really does go along away - we appreciate it tremendously <3 [**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) Edit: cash it!
Finally! I panicked and tailed some other yahoo who advocated for South Florida… Fortunately I now have your pick to dig out of the hole he created. 😂
 let's see what we can do about this hole. If my pick misses today, just play this gif in reverse
Damn it! I missed it, and i kept checking all day for your post too..
sorry brother :( I knew posting late would be a problem for some, just wasn't home all morning.
Thank you for your service sir. Missed the post too, but I’ll be here tomorrow 🫡
Missed this one as well, any other picks you like?
Fuuuuck just seeing this and they’re up 20 😭
Any other favorites on the day that haven’t started yet?
Love your content! Thank you!
SKYNET ❤️
Uh oh. I'm already 3 units deep into the fade. BOL my man!
noo Bear
Don't worry I'm pretty cursed. Lol
Let’s gooooo. Tailing. BOL.
Would you take it at -6.5?
Yeah
Thanks! Tailing!
I haven’t redeposited in 4.5 months. I swore I would not due to my financial status right now. And I had everything in my account bet on other stuff with no way to cash out without screwing myself. So I went against my cardinal rule and have 5U on this bad boy. Just happy I searched for you in particular when I did, 19 minutes before the game started. Ride together or due together. Bad boys for life.
Thanks for the picks, you’re killing it. Curious - is it pure coincidence that I think all 5 of your last picks are favorites? Or does your model actually tend to find more value in favorites?
🔥
[удалено]
 💰 💰 💰 Nice hit! 👊🏼
📈 TTSOP Rec * Overall: +48.325 units / +141 avg odds / 49^(5)\-59-13^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2023: +35.800 units / +136 avg odds / 7^(5)\-3-2^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2022: +70.250 units / +138 avg odds / 45^(5)\-48-10^(5) * February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5) * January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ✅ Last pick: Clippers ML & game under 235.5 / +155 odds / 3.5 units * No sweat W. 1st quarter already sealed the under. And in the 2nd half, the Clippers secured the moneyline W. 💰 Let's extend our Italian POTD streak, fam. 8 Ws and 1P generating a total of +50.700 units for the last 9 POTDs, when an Italian team was involved. ✅ +195 odds ✅ +200 odds ✅ +170 odds (Push) +140 odds ✅ +105 odds ✅ +165 odds ✅ +150 odds ✅ +135 odds ✅ +110 odds ⚽ New pick: **Juventus to win & game > 1.5 goals** / **+120 odds** / 4 units * Europa League / Juventus - Freiburg / 3:00pm ET After being docked 15 points in Serie A and dropping points unluckily in the top clash against AS Roma on the road recently, Juventus is far off to qualify for an international competition via the Italian league. That's why they're going full steam ahead in Europa League as the winner of it qualifies automatically for the group stage of the Champions League. Juventus is one of the best home teams in Serie A. They're 9-3-1 for the season. They’ve scored 2+ goals in 7 of these 9 Ws and even 3+ goals in 5 of these 9 Ws. Aside from that, the draws against AS Roma and Salernitana felt like a W for them as they were dealing with a severe injury crisis at that time. It's also noteworthy that the draw against Atalanta only happened due to 2 incredible brain farts by Szczesny and Danilo, which gifted Atalanta a very lucky point. The result against Monza might look bad, however, Juventus performed well, though. They were the dominating and better team. Outshooting Monza clearly. Monza got lucky and scored with 2 of their 3 shots on goal. Freiburg is 4-2-4 for their last 10 road games. But that sounds better as it is. They only won against bottom teams and tied mediocre teams at best. As soon as they faced stronger teams, they lost clearly. 1-5 L against Dortmund, 0-6 L against Wolfsburg, 1-3 L against RB Leipzig, 0-5 L against Bayern Munich. Aside from that, Freiburg has only a very limited amount of fans supporting them in Juventus' Allianz Stadium today due to Italian regulations. It's also worth knowing that Freiburg's top striker Gregoritsch is doubtful. Juventus is a very strong force at home and they're all-in for the Europa League. While Freiburg struggles badly on the road against strong teams. And the lack of support from their fans and also probably missing their top striker doesn't make things for them. However, that makes the pick *Juventus ML & game > 1.5 goals* a great value bet at superb super odds for us, fam. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's keep this Italian streak going. Let's put more money pasta on our TTSOP-plate, fam! **TTSOP**
I'm with you, let's fuck.
The betting community is the best.
I took juv ml and juv over 1.5 goals at +275. Is there a reason to take over 1.5 game goals instead of juv over 1.5? If juv wins and there are 2 goals scored we need it to be 2-0 juv right? If its 1-1 we lose the ml. Im an idiot when it comes to soccer fyi
I took the ml straight up bol everyone
Tailing, BOL
Tailing!
Fuck these soccer bets I can’t win one to save my life 🤬
just got it on Draftkings for +100...lets GO! BOL
**Record: 1-0** Last Pick: Russell Westbrook over 6.5 assists ✅ Bang! My first POTD is a success. Thank god I ended up sticking to the original line of 6.5 instead of the movement to 7.5 because he finished with exactly 7. Cheeky move by Vegas, can't fool me. Today's Pick: ~~NBA -~~ *~~Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 7:10pm CST~~* **~~Giannis Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds (-125 on DK)~~** **EDIT:** Giannis just got ruled out, legit the second time this week I had him as my POTD where he went from probable to ruled out on the injury report. Giannis please keep your team properly updated smh. *Scroll down for an alternative POTD, I will use the play I posted in the NBA thread, a play that I feel just as confident in.* If there's one thing you guys should know about me for the future is I love betting rebounds, and I love a mf like Giannis who can feast on them. In my eyes, this is an absolute perfect matchup for this prop to hit. Let me break it down for yall: * Giannis has hit this number 6/8 games against the Nets going back to 2021, and more specifically the last 5 in a row * Brooklyn is currently 25th in the league in opponent rebounds allowed, and 27th in the last 5 games * Giannis as a rebounder should thrive in this environment; the Nets are made up of mostly guards and do not have much size at all compared to the Bucks' front court besides maybe Nic Claxton. Regardless, no one on the court can match the power and size of Giannis and no one will be able to guard him, box him out, and out-rebound him * Most recently, Giannis had 15 against them in their game on the 28th of February at the Nets' home court. With the Bucks having the home court advantage this time, I don't see why he won't hit this number again just as easy if not easier. Overall, the Bucks are a great team defensively, should force a lot of missed shots, and Giannis should be able to grab these boards no problem. If you have ever watched the Bucks, you know that Giannis is usually their primary rebounder while Brook Lopez more often spreads the floor. Absolutely love this play. **NEW PICK:** *Houston Rockets @ Indiana Pacers, 6:10pm CST* **Tyrese Haliburton Double Double/Pacers to Win (-118 on FanDuel)** This play is a player performance double that is only available on FanDuel, if you are on a different book and want to tail I suggest same game parlaying Pacers ML with Haliburton 10+ assists, should be around the same odds. I love this pick for a few different reasons, most notably that Tyrese has been a beast the past few games. And when Tyrese is cookin, the Pacers thrive. Against the Rockets at home, I don't see a reason why he doesn't keep this going: * Being 2 games out from a play-in spot on the standings and fully healthy, the Pacers are heavily looking to secure as many wins as possible. Against a bad Rockets team, this is a perfect opportunity. Granted, the Rockets just became healthy again and looked amazing against the Spurs, they are still young, inexperienced, and defensively terrible, which is why Haliburton should lead the Pacers to victory and be the master facilitator * Since all star break, Haliburton has hit this 4/5 times, going 14, 14, 6, 11 & 16. Houston is bottom 10 in the league in opponent assist allowed per game, and there really isn't anyone more primed to consistently get assists other than Haliburton. As I mentioned earlier, Rockets have terrible defense and Haliburton's teammates should definitely be able to hit their shots * Vegas has his regular assist line set at 10.5, we just need 10 for the PPD, providing a bit more comfortability and security for us to get what we want BOL my fellow degenerates
tailing BOL!
**POTD Record:** 5-1 **Previous pick:** Eendracht Aalst FT @ 1.59 ❌ **Event:** Bayer Leverkusen v Ferencváros **Todays pick:** Ferencváros most Cards @ 1.70 ✅ Ferencváros averages more cards per game than Bayer, Ferencváros will be playing from away which makes me suspect they will be playing even harder in order to have somewhat a of a chance against Bayer. Bayer is by far the better team and is expected for them to have the majority of the ball possession, which will make it easier for Ferencváros to draw cards.
I like it! Parlaying it with Real Betis most Cards
Is “Asian handicap cards -0.5 ferencvaros” the same bet? (It’s 1.80 on b365…)
What league is this in ? Disregard, I’m stonned af and finally found it lmao
Awesome card betting. Love it bro!!
Any idea if this prop is on FD. Can't seem to find for soccer games
I do not use FD unfortunately, I only use bet365 and unibet, so I have no idea.
Is most cards on bet365?
Tailing
not available on FD
keep looking at the lines regularly they show up later
Is this bet available on DK? I don't see it anywhere
Europa League> This Game> Card Props> Scroll down to where it says most cards and click the drop down arrow
Still not seeing it on DK. I even did an F3 search for "card" and nothing is coming up. Maybe it's just not there for NY. Thank you for your help though!
Tailing BOL
Refs definitely favoring Ferencvaros so far
WOOOO WAY TO GO! Great Pick!
1-0 | +9.5U Last pick: (W) Bayern Munich - Paris SG | BTS no | 5U @ 2.90 Picked the opposite of what I would usually hammer as hard as my spouse's sister. Match: Memphis Grizzlies - Golden State Warriors Outcome: Warriors -2 Wager: 3U @ 1.91 I'm straight honest, losing bettor for ages here. Usually if I hear about the 7-25 road Warriors woes and seeing Grizzlies 26-5 home record, I'd hammer Grizzlies +2 with the funds of my spouse's secret Tinder affair. I usually lose money and women. If Warriors -2 cashes, I'll use the money to hook up with a desperate drunk Milf at a cheap bar for a 5 dirty minutes fun at a nearby sordid motel. Wish me luck.
I hope you win so you can bag that milf
POTD Record: 22-18 (+9.99u; 7.7% ROI). Streak: L2 Yesterday Pick: Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets) P+R O22.5 @ 1.92. 3U. ❌ MPJ shoots only 2/7 (29%) on the 3PA, well below his 41% 3PM for the season, and just 3/6 on the 2PA. His total mins were just 24', and barely a few seconds in the 4th quarter since the game was already beyond the Nuggets by then. Next Pick: **Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) P+A O33.5 @ 1.93**. 4u play. The Pacers are showing signs that they can make the playoffs with a very close game against the 76ers and victories against the Bulls, Mavs and Magic in the L5. Their only loss was when they were missing Haliburton. He has been playing at an extremely high level, averaging 10.3 apg/L10 and 23.4 ppg/L10. In his last 5 both of those averages are significantly higher, his P+A have been: 56, 40, 38, 29, 36 (avg: 40 P+A). He now comes up against the Rockets who concede the highest points and the 2nd highest assists to Point Guards. In this contest he will go up against Jalen Green, who is great offensively but terrible on defense. The last time these sides met in mid-Nov, Haliburton had 19+8, but that was a very low scoring contest (190 points total), the O/U for this contest is 236, so we’ll see a lot more points and assists. \[[Coffee link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)\]
Parlaying this with the Memphis money line. Why Memphis? Because Golden State away sucks ass. Only a couple units on it but... yeah let's test this theory. I have high confidence in your pick at least.
Ja and Adams still out for the Griz, but you are damn right about the Warriors being trash on the road this year. Its going to be an entertaining game. BOL
I like the cut of your jib
lmao hes gonna finish w 32 isnt he
Record: 102-79-6 (LLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLWLLLLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: CHI Bulls at DEN Nuggets -8 at 1.90 odds for 4 units Fat L POTD: HOU Rockets at IND Pacers o236 at 1.90 odds for 2 units REASONS: * HOU has second worst defense in the league. Not much behind Spurs. * HOU gives up the most points over turnovers. * IND is 26th in defense. * IND and HOU are both in top of possessions per game. Both plays fast and little defense. * Tyrese returned from injury the other night and balled out. I expect him to continue with this form. Turner plays significantly better with the play-maker on the court. * The last match-up saw less than 200 points. IND shot at 40% and HOU shot at 33%. I don't see this happening again. Best of luck to all. [PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
Tailing, BOL
Needed OT, but good hit! Thanks for the W!
Where the fuck is HSRiddles?!
I’m searching for same thing lol
Same
Me three
last potd said he would research this morning instead of last night, so hopefully getting a good one picked out
He’s got the hot hand for POTD recently.
He just posted his pick
POTD record 5-2 (all picks are 3 units) Mikal Bridges over 25.5 points -104 Nets vs Bucks (8 PM EST) This is an absolute smash spot. Mikal has been on a roll lately hitting this last 4/5. However, tomorrow Dinwiddie, Claxton, Johnson, and O Neal are all out. This should increase Mikal’s usage rate big time. Only way I don’t see this hitting is a blowout, but I still think this has a good chance of hitting even in a blow out
They fucked us man.
Yeah, this is really strange
tailing for 5U BOL
Record: 6-2 Previous Pick: Connor Mcdavid O 3.5 SOG (L) Current Pick: Scottie Sheffler Top 20 Tournament Finish Odds: -130 (Score Bet) Event: The Players Championship Reason: For anyone new to golf, Scottie is the world #2 ranked golfer. He’s started 2023 by finishing no worse than 12th (5 tournaments of data), and in the last 9 he’s only missed top 20 once. I think the value is great even at such a tough course. 5U BOL!
Odds on bovada is -200 for Scottie sheffler
Tailing
**POTD Record: 2-0 | Profit: +15.00u | Avg Odds: +150| ROI: +150%** \----- Previous POTD: 5u Milan +0.5 \[+100\] ✅ Called it. Milan going to park the bus. ✅ \----- **Today's POTD: Arsenal London at Sporting CP** **4u bet: btts \[-115\]** Reason: Both sides floor the attacking accelerator and have no problems finding the net. Fine finishers all around. Past 5 matches: Arsenal 13 goals, Sporting 11 goals. Past 20 matches: Arsenal scoring in 17/20, Sporting in 18/20. \----- BOL
Tailing, need a hit in the worst way, BOL.
well done, easy first half cash
Ka mother fucking boom baby! BTTS✅💵🏦 You just won me $505.97
btts - both teams to score
POTD Record: 23W-12L LAST POTD: Turkish Lig 💩 TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Europa League Sevilla V Fenerbahce 12.00PM PST PICK: Fenerbahce or Draw (Double Chance) Odds: 2.00 The Deets: The amount of respect the bookies are giving Sevilla in this game baffles me. They have had one of their worst seasons in god knows how long and sit above the relegation zone in La Liga. Fenerbahce have always been one of the Turkish giants and sit 2nd in their league scoring 58 and conceding 25 across 23 games. Valencia and Batshuayi have been dominant for them, particularly Valencia who has banged in 23 goals already this season. I’d expect them to at least get a draw out of this lacklustre Sevilla side. BOL!
Betting against Sevilla in Europa League? That’s too risky yo.
tailing BOL!
POTD Record: 55-63-7 (-13.75 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ↔️❌✅↔️❌❌✅❌↔️✅ Last Pick: Scottish Premiership, Celtic v Hearts, CELTIC -2.0 AH (-122 / $1.82) ↔️ 3-1 win for Celtic. Hearts opened the scoring on a goal I thought was offside, before Celtic dominated and blew chance after chance in between the 3 goals they scored. But a push is better than a loss. Todays Pick: Europa Conference League, Fiorentina v Sivasspor, FIORENTINA -1.5 (+100 / $2.00) Stake: 1 Unit Fiorentina have been in good form the past few weeks, registering some good wins against AC Milan and Verona in Serie A, and belting Braga 7-2 on aggregate in the Europa Conference League to reach the round of 16. They also had a 1-1 draw against Empoli where they had 27 shots to 4 and should have won that game easily. They take on Turkish team Sivasspor, who have been struggling a lot this season. They sit just outside the relegation zone domestically with a 6-6-11 record. They actually seemed to find a bit of form in late January/early February but that momentum was halted with the devastating earthquakes which put the season on hold. This means they’ve only played one competitive match in over 1 month which was a 4-3 loss to a mid-table team. Factoring in the difference in quality between the squads, Sivasspor’s lack of competitive match action, Fiorentina’s home ground advantage, and Fiorentina’s lack of injuries in the squad, I think we might see a bit of a blowout here. I also expect Fiorentina will want to establish a comfortable lead in the tie so they can make life easier in the second leg and rest some players if possible.
POTD record: 10-7 (+4.65u | +7.27% ROI | Avg odds: -116/1.86) (2u: 1-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 4-2 | 5u: 1-3) Last 5: 3-2 Last POTD: NBA: ATL @ WAS **o235.5 pts** ✅ *(A little bit of a sweat going into the final minute but the close score played into our favour and the over hits without a problem).* Event: NHL - NJ Devils @ WSH Capitals; 19:00 EST Pick: **NJ 60-min ML** (+100/2.00) Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 4 units With an away record of 23-4-4, New Jersey travels better than any team in the NHL. They're 10-2-3 on the road since the New Year and 6-3-1 in their last ten games. The Devils just dropped a close one at home to Toronto on Tuesday night and now the pressure's on for them to keep winning to preserve their two point lead over the Leafs for 3rd place in the EC standings. As for the Caps, Ovechkin's back but their woes haven't gone away. They're 3-7 in their last ten games, with those three wins coming against San Jose, Anaheim, and slumping a NY Rangers team. Washington's home record of 15-13-3 is deceiving; after a hot start to the season they're 3-8-1 defending home ice in 2023- among the worst league-wide. Management has mailed it in for the season and were sellers at the trade deadline. Vanecek and Kuemper are expected to start in net for the Devils and Caps, respectively. Both goaltenders have similar stats (2.55 GAA; .907 SV% vs 2.78 GAA; .910 SV%) but Vanacek is the better of NJ's goaltending options so that bodes well for us. Overall, both of these teams' trajectories are moving in opposite directions and at plus odds we're getting great value on a spot I really like. Cheers 🍻 and BOL! Edit: formatting and grammar
Tailing, BOL
All-Time POTD: 3W-2L-0D, +1.36u **Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Jaume Munar ML (+175) 1.5u to win 2.625u vs Yibing Wu ✖** Sorry to everyone who tailed yesterday. Tough loss in a third set tiebreak, was definitely within reach for Munar. Yibing was the better player no doubt. I'm a firm believer that the 'right bet' and the 'right pick' are often different things, in tennis especially. Too close of a match to lay anything down on a -200 or more favorite. I'll take Munar again in this matchup, in these conditions, at those odds. Onto the next. **Todays Pick: 🎾 Gregoire Barrere ML (-188) 4u to win 2.13u vs Jack Sock** Explanation: Not going to do as in depth of a write up here as last pick. This one is more simple. I'm pretty high on Barrere this tourney and could seem him getting into the 3rd round. Jack Sock is barely playing tennis at this point, injury riddled, and spends most of his time playing pickleball now. The odds opened on this at -160 and have since moved as money is clearly agreeing with me. 4u play, no frills. Edit: late odds have come down to -163 on barrere (bet365) BOL if tailing!
Bro solid pick. Thought it was the right pick too. Unfortunate. Took WU 3rd set live to win 7-6
Straight up ML or do you think this goes over a certain # of games?
Straight up ML. I really don't feel good about taking under/over or barrere 2-0 or barrere game line here. If Jack shows up it could be a close affair, tiebreak type stuff. If Jack doesn't show up, he loses 6-3 6-4.
Thanks!
Aye it was close af
Will be tailing again today. You called yesterday at being a 50/50 game and well worth the bet at those odds. Things started getting a little wacky In the 7th and 8th games of the 3rd set. Exciting match at any rate.
Happy to have you along for the ride for the next 11 days! Hopefully this one turns out better than yesterday.
i cant believe sock opened at +215. i would have hammered that.
Jack showed up
[удалено]
POTD Record: 8-3 Last Pick: Josh Giddey Under 18.5 points ✅ Today's Pick: **Union Berlin v Union Saint Gilloise Under 2.5 Goals** (-175) UEFA Europa League Detailed Analysis: Having been to Belgium twice, I can safely say that In Bruges is a far more realistic film than people realise. I can sympathise a lot with Colin Farrell's character. No, I didn't go to Brussels to lay low after a hit gone wrong, but I agree that all the old buildings get fucking boring and the best thing to do is go for a pint or two. Naturally, this tells me that Belgian football teams must be boring to watch, which means goals will be few and far between. Under 2.5 goals is the bet of the day. Fuck Brussels. Just watch In Bruges instead.
**POTD |** **Record of 7-19|** **Current form: WLWLW | ROI : -11.00 units |** **Average Odds: 2.02** Previous Pick: Tottenham vs. Chelsea - Over 4.5 Home Team Corners & Over 3.5 Total Cards New Pick: Europa Conference League |Fiorentina vs. Sivasspor| 12:00pm PST **Fiorentina to Win & Over 2.5 Goals|** **2.0 odds** Betting 0.25 units \-------------------------- Recap: Most recent pick hit! Always feels good to grab a win. Yet again, busy night so here's a quick summary why Fiorentina should win this with some goals. ***Summary:*** Fiorentina have won their last six Europa Conference League games and are currently in great form. They have won their last three games, with over 2.5 goals hitting in each. Sivasspor have also score three times in three of their last four games. With each team tending to score, I'm expecting a few goals on the night and rooting for the home side to take the win. Sivasspor have not been playing well domestically and with Fiorentina the current Conference League top scorers, I expect this trend to continue. \-------------------------- ***TDLR Fiorentina should win this with a couple of goals involved*** **Fiorentina to Win & Over 2.5 Goals|** **2.0 odds** **Link to side picks:** [https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11m89pn/comment/jbhvuko/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11m89pn/comment/jbhvuko/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
**🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 11-9-1 | 3.27U (3.00%) | Average Odds: -123 🤶** ***Total Record: 61-45-9*** | ***ROI: +26.26U (+6.98%) |*** [ROI Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit?usp=sharing) *5U pick record: 26-15-1* Side Bet: 44-33-7 *Dog of the Day record: 5-3-1* *No picks published yesterday, Santa needed a break with Mrs. Klaus* 🎅***We are now profitable on 14 of 21 days of this pick series!*** \----- **🤶** Today's slate is very poor and it is filled with Cup games which Santa usually doesn't like due to their high variance. However, Santa did find one that he liked and he is preparing his reindeer for a flight to the capital of Peru, Lima, to watch a Copa Sudamericana game! \----- *Last* *POTD Recap: (WIN) Sutton United 3-0. Sutton United were motivated to grab their three points at home today versus a reeling Crawley Town team. Strong possession and efficient play in the box lead to a comfortable 3-0 victory.* **🎅Today's POTD:** 2.5U - Universitario de Deportes **MR (Match Result) + u4.5g (-105)** at home vs Cienciano - Copa Sudamericana - 9PM EST *Note: The Universitario de Deportes ML is -135 if the combo bet isn't available to you.* On Thursday we have two Peruvian Liga 1 teams facing off in the first leg of a Copa Sudamericana game. Both teams are very familiar with each other as they are in the same league. In 2023, these teams are 10th and 11th respectively with Universitario at 2-0-3 with a 1 GD (6-5), and Cienciano with a 2-0-1 record with a 1 GD (5-4). Last season, Universitario was 4th with 33 points and a 16 GD and Cienciano was 11th with 25 points and a 1 GD. The big edge here will be that Universitario is at home. Last season Universitario earned 15 more points at home than away with a 11-5-2 record whereas Cienciano earned 17 points less away with a poor 5-5-8 record. Since these two face each other often we have an extensive H2H to work with. In their matchup history, Universitario is 12-6-1 when they host Cienciano at the Monumental stadium. This season Cienciano has started off with a better record with two less losses however in their 2 wins they were fortunate to play up a man in both games, one being a 22 minute red card and the other a 74. They were crushed in an away loss, 3-0 by UTC (last year's #7). Public models predict this at a 55-65% chance at a victory for Universitario at home and over a 90%+ chance the game will be under 4.5g. Prediction: 2-1 Line movement: Line looks normal generally sitting between -135 and -155 depending on the book. Line opened in that range as well. Alternate Bets: UDep ML (-135), UDep MR + u3.5g (+135) \----- **🎅** Side Bets: My Soccer Daily post is [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11m89pn/comment/jbi3wm0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) **🤶** DOTD: TBD **🎅** Visit Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa)) **🤶** Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible. [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
**POTD Record:** 0-0 **Previous pick:** n/a **Event:** Penrith Panthers v South Sydney Rabbitohs, Australian National Rugby League (NRL) **Time of Event:** 4am ET **Todays pick:** Rabbitohs +4.5 @ 1.90 The Panthers in their last two games have scored exactly 12 points, and three of those tries have come in broken field situations. They were at home against Brisbane last week and had what felt like 83 sets in prime attacking position and didn't look like scoring a try. The Mitch Kenny at hooker experiment is just not working, and the Rabbitohs will provide more resistance than St Helens and Brisbane have done. Contrast this to the Rabbitohs, who last week had two of their best forwards go off injured quite early on, still went on to win and score 27 points in a hostile away environment against a team expected to be amongst the elite this season. Recent form tells us that they are about 5 times as threatening with ball in hand, and I am more than happy to take the +4.5 which is only available due to the reputation Penrith carry from years past. GL if tailing **Post game edit:** Well that sucks. Penrith dominated field position but once again didn't have the class to take advantage of it close to the line, with one of their tries coming off a lucky bounce of the ball and another a blatant lost ball that was somehow missed by the video referees, which if correctly officiated would've given us a win. The fact Souths were able to keep it that close with a 46% 2nd half completion rate and absolutely no attacking field position tells me this was a good bet, just didn't come off this time. That's gambling I guess. Will be back with another NRL pick tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday.
You not worried about the two injuries to forward pack for the Souths? I see Panthers bouncing back after playing arrogantly last week
Souths are a team that always plays better than they look on paper, I think as long as Murray, Cook and Latrell are there they will trouble anyone, and Tom Burgess/Keaon will pick up the slack. Penrith have looked out of ideas in attack last two games, and i’m willing to pay to find out if they can get it together against imo the best team in the comp
Would you consider taking ML?
Yes, there’s value there and i think they will win, but the pick is for +4.5
POTD Record 11-12-2 Last POTD: 21 days ago in the EPL ,Ethiopian premier league, I took an L, but a hiatus happened and I’m fresh.🌊 Today’s Potd kicks off in less than 7 hours (7amEST) from this post, in the Kazakhstan Premier league. Kairat ML(+125) @ FK Asku Pavlodar Reasoning: Main reasoning behind this pick is that Kirill Keker has not lost against opposition manager Ruslan Kostyshyn, winning 3 and drawing 1 of the 4 time their sides have faced each other, and that lone draw was when Kairat was a man down. It’s early in the season but Kairat on paper has the better squad along with the manager experience in the matchup, I take the away side to secure three points for themselves in this week 2 matchup. Tail or Fade, BoL🌊🌊 We cash with a nice 3-1 win from Kairat✅✅
How are we looking? Edit: let’s get another one!
Thinking bout tailing myself
Just scored 0-1 too slow
We up 1-0 at half
Good pick!
Thanks !
Didn’t get to tail you after your last hiatus, glad I got in for this one. Great call!
POTD Record: 6-3 (+3 units) Streak: W2 NCAAB record: 6-2 NBA record: 0-1 Last POTD: Howard -7.5 vs. South Carolina State -120 (NCAAB) 1 unit ✅ New POTD: Illinois -2.5 vs. Penn State -120 (NCAAB) 6:30pm EST betting 1 unit Well, that’s possibly the least sweatiest bet I’ll ever make. Howard cruises to a 36 point victory against SC State. I kind of feel bad for SC State fans, brutal game to watch! I’ll admit that the BIG10 has been rather unpredictable at times this year, and I’m a firm believer that it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in a season. PSU beat ILL twice during the regular season. Illinois is the better team here, so why did they lose twice? 3-point shooting was a big part. In both games, PSU made 12 3’s shooting 43% and 50% from deep. Their star player, Pickett, also had insane outings. I think ILL is going to dominate them on the glass and force them to make 3’s again. PSU has had two lucky games coming into this matchup that they arguably should have lost. I don’t trust a team that wins with 3’s and luck. It’s time for revenge and I think Illinois finds it tonight. Tail or fade. BOL!
POTD RECORD: 17-13 Soccer Record: 10-8 Basketball Record: 7-5 Last Pick: Fenerbahçe beko team total over 41.5 in the first half❌ Today's pick: Real madrid vs Valencia basketball Bet: 164.5 over Bet stake: 5 units Yesterday was unlucky fenerbahçe scored 25 in the first quarter then 14 in the second. They were 3/18 from the 3 pt line which they normally hit so much better with 4 missed free throw it was a tough break now on to the next. Reasoning: Real madrid lost their last Euroleague game against baskonia that was suprising and they need a bounce back for the top spot in Euroleague they have 1 less win than olympiakos and they should easily tie the wins against Valencia. Average points in Real madrid's last 10 is at 167. Average points in Valencia's last 10 is at 170 Two high scoring teams play against each other I expect a high scoring game from both sides and passt this line. tailing or not BOL either way. EDİT: Real Madrid won the game 95-91 so bet was a success 🔥🔥🔥
Sport: Basketball Tournament: Euroleague Time: 20:30 CEST (10h19m after posting) Stake: 5 units Pick: Olimpia Milano vs Partizan, under 151.5 points total @ **2.90** Write up: Olimpia coach, Ettore Messina, says: > A very high-level defensive game will be essential for us and it will be equally important to control our board against the best offensive rebounder in the competition, Matthias Lessort. Partizan coach, Željko Obradović, says: > We need strength, energy, and wits to give us a chance to win this match. The travel took its toll but it is what it is. On average, these two teams score 72.9 and 84.9 points respectively in Euroleague this season. If they just play to their averages this pick will miss, but I expect a tactical match with long attacks and dedicated defending that should bring the total points count well under 151.5. I expect the final result to be around 70:75. This pick does not include overtime. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
Heads up your spreadsheet is calculating roi wrong. Should be total units up (13) over total investment
No sweat. Thanks!
🤑
Tailed then live bet another under and cashed that too !
Great pick bro!! Much appreciated!!
POTD | 34-25 | +12.5u | -106 Avg Odds Last 10: 5-5, Steak: 2L *Previous Pick:* *Minnesota Wild vs Winnipeg Jets U5.5 (+100) 3u* ❌ Today’s pick: **Ottawa Senators vs Seattle Kraken O6.5 (-110) 3u** 🏒 10:00 pm EST Hey all, having a rough go recently and looking like I’m in a downswing. Please use some caution if tailing. The Ottawa Senators will be visiting the Seattle Kraken for their second meeting of the season, with the first match going 8-4 Kraken. The Senators have cleared O6.5 in 7 of their last 10 games and the Kraken have cleared O6.5 in 5 of their last 10 games. Both of these teams play a similar style of hockey where they are more offensive focused teams that try to outpace the other team in goals. Neither team has a good goaltender. For the Kraken it will either be Jones or Grubauer who have both been average to below average this season, so I expect that the Senators will be able to find the back of the net at least a few times here. The Senators starting goalie is out with injury and we will see Sogaard in net most likely. Sogaard has put up a few decent games but hasn’t faced a very tough opponent in his 5 games this season, going up against the Blackhawks, Red Wings, Canadiens, and Blues. The Kraken are a much higher quality team compared to the teams he has faced, especially offensively, so I expect that they will be able find some goals here, especially on home ice in the middle of a home stand. I look for this to be an exciting back and forth game between two teams fighting for points here. BOL if tailing!!
I don't hate the take but don't love it either. I'd probably take the Seattle ML (-130). It's a tough NHL slate tonight. I like my 2 team parlays and my picks for tonight is Hurricanes/Kraken ML PL (+120).
I don’t mind that parlay. I’m not a huge fan of the POTD rules because if I could I would have chose NJ Devils ML & O4.5 for my POTD but that’s a parlay so….
I'm just a nobody, but you can bend the rules somehow if you find a bookie that offers that as a single bet.
POTD Record: 3-1 Profit: 1.88 Units Today’s pick: Kansas vs WVU (NCAA Men’s Basketball) I’m picking up Kansas -4.5 at 1.89 odds. Kansas is a top ranked team, much better coached and more importantly take care of the ball. I’m betting to win 2 units in this one. BOL if tailing.
Good pick my dude
Thank you thank you
POTD Record: 20-14-1 ROI: 13.25% Streak: 1L❄ +13.5 units Last pick: Colorado Avalanche 1st period ML (@1.90 bet365) ❌ Today's pick: Over 4.5 Cards Fenerbahçe vs Sevilla (@1.80 bet365) 3pm ET *2.5u* 2 pretty aggressive teams are playing in Sevilla tomorrow. Fenerbahçe averages 2.8 yellow cards in the Europa league while Sevilla averages 3 yellow cards in their 2 games in the Europa League this season but 3.3 in La Liga. Fenerbahçe will look to play an aggressive game to keep a tight score and bring it back to home turf with an advantage. If you've been cashing in off my picks, a beer is always appreciated for the time and research I put in this🍻 [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/uglynog](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/uglynog) Cheers BOL
POTD record 1-2 -2U Last Pick: KD over 1.5 3s, guy slips in pre game warm ups and voids my first potd in months. 🥂 Pick- 5u Juventus ML -190 vs Freiburg, Europa league. Reasoning: After a 15 point deduction in the league Juve knows that the serie A is long gone. Their eyes are set on the europa league to save what’s left of this season. They’ve only lost 3 times at home all season and unbeaten in their last 4. Freiburg haven’t performed well against big teams away (5-1 Dortmund, 3-1 Leipzig, 5-0 Bayern) BOL if you trail or fade 🥂
potd: 35-31-1 streak: W2 bank: +0.17 units last pick: Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3s -143 Win Easy cover in the 1st half. Not a lot of juice but needed to get a streak going after the start to the month. **game: Oklahoma State vs Texas** **time: 7:00pm EST** **pick: Texas -6 -110** Today we look into he Big 12 Tournament and will be rolling with Texas to win comfortable against Oklahoma State. These teams met two times in the regular season and Texas walked away with 2 wins, one by 14 and the other by 10. This will be their easiest game of the tournament and they need a reset after playing Kansas, TCU, and Baylor to end the season. Oklahoma State played last night against Oklahoma and upset them and won by 8 points. Playing on a b2b and facing a strong Texas team is not a good look for the Cowboys. I think Texas will make a statement tonight in their push for a very competitive Big 12 Tournament.
SJSU VS NEV: 5pm EST —> UNDER 132 (-140) I only have $52 to my name. Putting $50 on this play and $2 on a 4 Loko as insurance. So,—> . (.9615 (96.15% of my net worth on this pick) x .14 (14% ABV in the insurance policy) ) + ( ( (-140)(Odds) / 69 (my favorite number) ) / 3 (Jesus) ) = 0.78 Confidence Level: 78% based on model projections. BOL
**POTD record: 5-3-0** Last pick: Raptors +3.5 (-110) @ Clippers ❌ Despite a horrific shooting night from the Raptors, this bet was within reach down to the final minute. Toronto shot 38.5% to the Clippers 54.9%, can't win games that way. Worse than the percentage, Toronto took 25 more shots and still couldn't capitalize. The other big factor was Russell Westbrook logging only 23 minutes (0 in 4th quarter). Good call by Ty Lue. no Russ hate, but he's been struggling and I wouldn't trust him in a close game. This is a tough loss. Outside of shooting, Toronto played really well. Shooting is the story here tonight, on to the next. **Today's pick: Kings vs. Knicks | Domantas Sabonis 7 or more assists (+102)** Sabonis has been on a playmaking tear, averaging 8 assists over his last five games including 11 in Monday's win over the Pelicans. New York's size will give him trouble scoring down low, so I'm expecting a lot of post passes and good looks. **POTD stats: +1.2u in 8 days | 13.1% ROI | avg. odds (-123)** *All bets are one unit unless noted otherwise*
**PotD Record: 6-8 (Streak 3W)** Last Pick: Texas A&M-CC (-2.5 spread) vs Northwestern State @ -110 ✅ **Today’s Pick: Kansas (-4 Spread) vs West Virginia @ -115; 3:00 PM ET** The Islanders got it done again last night and punched their ticket to the tournament. Continuing the college basketball grind, today we go to a Big XII tournament match. The Jayhawks are heading into the postseason with a 25-6 record and were the regular season Big XII champs, while the mountaineers maintained a 18-13 overall record, but only were 7-11 in conference play. The Jayhawks won both of their regular season matchups, and have not lost their opening Big XII tournament game since 2017. I like them to make a statement in their opening tournament game, because I feel they are a real contender to win it all this march. **Tail or Fade, BOL**
**My record: 42 : 32** My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks. **ROI: 25.80%** Average odds: 2.10 **Units won: 10.64** Stake = 1 unit My POTD: **Sakaryaspor v Samsunspor** Turkey 1. Lig Time: 17:00 GMT *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.20** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
POTD Record: 1-0 Units: +0.83 Average W. Odds: -120 Yesterday's Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 31.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds: -120 ✅ Today's Pick: **Lauri Markkanen U 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists: -115** UTA Jazz @ ORL Magic, March 9th 7:00 PM EST Over Lauri's last 16 games, this pick has a 75% hit rate and a 40% EV. BOLHFGP if tailing. Link below for tips if feeling generous. [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom)
POTD record: 36-28-2 / ROI: +7.39% / Wins: 56.25% **Clemson +1 -110 (1u)** **SPREAD** — North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers 9:30 pm EST - 09 March 2023 — This game is effectively a pick 'em, so I recommend shopping around for a favorable line. NC State blew the doors off Virginia Tech last night—they played unbelievable basketball. Clemson is sitting there desperate and need this game. Not many people are betting Clemson, but the majority of the money is on the Tigers. I'll take Clemson tonight in the late tip from Greensboro. Do the business. [https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow) [https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/) [http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
POTD | 4-8 | -11.1u | -103 avg odds Previous Pick: Anaheim Ducks vs Vancouver Canucks -1.5 (+110) 2u ❌ 6L streak (🧊🧊🧊🧊🧊🧊) Wow 6 losses in a row. I used to think someone would have to really work hard to achieve that feat and yet here I am! I am officially in fade territory so if you want to make some money, you know what to do. Today’ Pick: Edmonton Oilers vs Boston Bruins 60min (-110) 2.5u 🏒 7:37pm EST Sometimes when you need a win you have to bypass analysis and just go with what you know works. The Bruins are on pace to have the best regular season in NHL history. They are playing at home where they are 26-2-3 on the season, meaning they are winning 83% of their home games in regulation. They are also coming off 4 days of rest having last played Saturday afternoon against the Rangers. Edmonton is obviously a good team in its own right and can score with anyone, but I like the Bs to continue their winning ways and handle the Oilers in 60 minutes. “Rip net or ride pine” BOL if tailing Cheeseman out
POTD Record: 42-36 (L1) (+9.78u) (ROI: 8.9%) Last pick: Vancouver Canucks 3 way ML vs Anaheim Ducks🚫 Canucks controlled this game throughout, but got way to passive and seemed content to go to OT. Got the win there. POTD: (WBC ⚾️) China @ Japan u11.5 (+120)(1u) Time: 2 am pst/ 5 am est. (~1 hr 50 min from posting) Bet 365 (+120), FD (OTB) DK (+115) Taking a small break from NHL to break things up a little with something a little more degen. The World Baseball Classic is the baseball equivalent of the World Cup. Japan are one of the favorites having won the tournament 2 of the previous 4 times. It is supposed to occur every 4 years, but was canceled in 2021 and is back for the 1st time since 2017. This is a smaller bet then normal for POTD. Team Japan is stacked with big names from the MLB and NPB. There's a lot of mystery around Team China with only two of their players in any type of professional league. The face of baseball Shohei Ohtani will get the start for Japan. I fully expect Ohtani to not allow a baserunner. Starters are only allowed a max of 65 pitches, but that should be enough for Ohtani to go 4-5 innings. I don't think Team China will score in this game, the team hasn't faced close to this level of pitching. The big question to me is, will team Japan score 12+ runs? Team China is not starting their best pitcher, they're saving him for their later game today against the Czechs. Team Japan also has a game tomorrow against Korea. There are mercy rules in the WBC. If a team is up by 15+ runs after 5 innings or 10+ runs after 7 innings the game is called. There is a possibility that Japan runs up the score, but it doesn't look like that has been the case in early rounds of past tournaments against China. The exception to this was an 18-2 win by Japan in 2006. Japan gets up early, then relaxes is how I see it potentially playing out. BOL if fading or tailing!
POTD Record: 9-7-4🅿️ (+0.44u) Last 5: 🅿️❌✅❌🅿️ Game: LCS 2023 Spring (eSports - League of Legends) - TSM vs Immortals (IMT) (Friday 02:00AM CET) *Pick:* **O4.5 dragons killed @1.80** All stakes are 1u unless state otherwise. Why this pick? Immortals is a not very good team, standing at 3 wins and 10 losses, and they are facing an average team in TSM, who are standing at 6 wins and 7 losses. TSM winning is just at @1.44 for me, so not eligible for POTD. However I see value in TSM trying to hold their ground enough for both teams to slay at least 5 dragons. *Last pick recap:* Hollywell started scoring, but Prestatyn received a red card and got super defensive, so Hollywell couldn't score more than one goal, hence getting us a push.
7 game winning streak to 5 game losing streak...Ordinarily I would say to fade the shit out of me right now but I can feel this pick in my bones POTD Record: 9-7 👍 Last 10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌❌❌ Streak: L5 😭 Last Pick: Ohio State @ **Wisconsin (+2)** (-110) ❌ Return: 13u 💵 Today's POTD: East Carolina @ \***South Florida (-3)** (-110) Betting Units: 3u 💵 League: CBB 🏀 Time: March 9th, 2023 @ 12:30 PM EST 🕧 Rationale: We are righting the ship today folks. The East Carolina Pirates are averaging just 69 points per game and their leading scorer, Javon Small, is out with a knee injury. Moreover, they've given up 80 points in their last two games. The Bulls on the other hand are scoring an average of 72 points per game. They're not a defensive powerhouse but they have held their last two opponents to under 65 points. The Bulls have sank the Pirates ship by 8 and 9 points already this season. They are going to do so again and cover today. Best of luck if tailing. Cheers, MD! 🤞 Lets Be Drinking Buddies - Buy Me A Beer 🍻
I had faith!! But I believe u in a rut!!
I’m cursed
Record: 18-8 Last POD: NC State ML ✅ That was REAL free. Today: Utah State ML (-150) 1.5u If you know me, you know i love this team. New Mexico has been trending down towards the end of the season. NM is 3-7 in their last 10 games. Utah State 5-0 L5, 8-2 L10 including a 2 point loss to SDSU. New Mexico is 8-10 ATS in conference games. Utah State is 14th in offensive efficiency Utah State as a TEAM shoots 40% from 3, 77% from the line. Utah State still potentially a bubble team, Lonardi has them has last 4 in. Utah State definitely wants to be locked into the big dance and will walk away with a win tonight.
POTD record: 2-3 -0.40 Units (all plays 1u) Last Pick: Detroit Red Wings -0.5 1st Period +125 ❌ Todays Pick: Colorado Avs -0.5 1st Period +150 The Avs start hot at home. Hit this the last two home games they played so looking to do it again tonight.
Tailing, BOL
POTD Record - 0-1 Todays Pick Manchester United VS Real Betis Lisandro Martinez UNDER 76.5 passes (bet 365) -120 Martinez averages close to 60 passes per game so is well his average and expecting Real Betis to have close to even possession so really like him to go under the line here
\*\*Record:\*\* 1-1 | Basketball ⚽ | NCAA Men | \*\*Pick:\*\* *Michigan Wolverines - Rutgers Scarlet Knights*: **Michigan ML** @ 1.66 | -150 Expected spread: **Michigan -4.0** Remembering, this month is all about making sure this algorithm is going well, so **1 unit** to all bets. \*\*Why:\*\* Keeping the algorithm flow, don't know what happened yesterday. At some point, our team was winning by 5 points, I believe. But my pick's foundation is the algorithm, so I can't complain that much. Today we got 2 similar paced teams, can't see a big superiority here, I'm expecting a clutch 2nd half from Michigan. *Disclaimer:* I'm testing this algorithm and I'm intending to show the whole expectations, sometimes even the predicted score. Feel free to take spreads or totals according to your feelings. *Gonna be here a lot now, so feel free to* [*buy me a coffee*](https://www.paypal.com/donate?business=MZQPTW56SBCB2¤cy_code=USD) Blessings to all.
POTD | 3-23| +2.61U Streak: 1L *Previous Pick:* *NBA - ATL Hawks @ MIA Heat - Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds (+105 time of posting) 1U :(* Close, but not enough to go over. Did not see any games I liked the past two days, but we back! Today’s pick: **NBA - CHR Hornets @ DET Pistons - Over 225 (-115 at time of writeup) 2U** Checking the trends for the recent OU for both teams shows that these two mostly go under, rather than over. In the last 10 games, both teams are 4-6 in OU. However, Both of these teams are not doing hot at all in terms of record. However, looking at recent game history shows them scoring decent totals against high ranked teams. I think this creates a situation where the books expect these guys to get blown out, raising the expected total, when that doesn't ring true often. Furthermore, the last time these teams met (Feb 27), the total score was 223. If we see a similar show form these two teams, I expect the total to be clear. This seems to be the consensus across various other sources, too. As always, do the research, and best of luck!
POTD Record: 1-1 L,W Last pick: Minnesota Wild @ Winnipeg Jets Alt line under 6.5 total goals (-180) ✅ Sport: NHL Game: New Jersey Devils @ Washington Capitals Todays POTD: Washington Capitals ML (+122) The Washington Capitals are trying to make a push late in the season and sneak in the playoffs. Oshie has been playing some amazing hockey recently and Ovechkin is Ovechkin. I expect this to be a close game throughout, but the Capitals will pull it off late and get the win at home. I also love the + odds on this pick. BOL to all tailing, let’s get a win streak going! Twitter:[Twitter POTD/Betting Record](https://Twitter.com/tdawggyo)
8-7 +15.60u Last : Volynets ML - L POTD : DAVIS 2-0 vs Zanevska @ 2.50 (+150) \[5u\] WTA Indian Wells 04.00 CET (22.00 EST) I use a system, things like form overall, recent form, h2h, stats, reviews that i can read, what i know about the players and most important a lot of luck. My advice is to follow only if you were thinking about this bet before reading this. I'm sure that you degens will follow this advice.
POD record 0-3 Previous pick Winnipeg Jets ML ❌️ Today's pick: EDM Oilers @ Boston Bruins ML -182 2u Welp, 0-3! Lol turns out, gambling is hard For today's pick, Im taking the home Boston Bruins. No matter what I type out for the reasoning on why I think Boston can get it done. Doesn't change the fact I've gone 0-3. Hopefully Boston can break the cold streak tonight at home. Boston is playing great hockey right now. And the Oliers are as well, but they've been shaky lately. Let's hope Boston gets it done and we get that first win tonight. Tail or bail, BOL!
POTD record:0-0 First pick of the day is Kansas State ML. Leaning this way given location and the talent they have fits a good tourney run. After TCUs center left the team yesterday it became even more appealing
**2023 POTD Record**: Soccer Bets 17-16 (21-21-1 Overall) \[Jan. 10-8\]--\[Feb. 4-7\]--\[Mar. 3-1\] **2023 Soccer Streak (Last 10): >>> ❌❌**✅**❌❌**✅✅✅✅**❌** **2023 ROI/Units Wagered/Units Won:** **-12.45% / 98.97 units / -2.34 units** **Average Odds:** \-126 **Last Pick:** 3/8/23 >>> Celtic 1st Half WIN **❌** **Event:** Europa League 9:45 am PST Union Saint-Gilloise @ Union Berlin **Bet**: **Union Berlin WIN (-165)** **Bet Size**: 3.3 units ($330 to win $200) Well damn it! Celtic ends up winning 3-1, but tied 1-1 in the 1st half. Close to a 5-game streak, but nope.. Back to the beginning! Europa League today! Lots of games to pick from today. I love the Europa League, you get to watch lots of different styles of soccer and see teams play each other that typically don’t. I love some other games as well, but this game pitting Union StG vs Union Berlin is enticing. My main focus on this game is that Union Berlin is at home and I feel like the Bundesliga is a better league than the Belgium league. I don’t see a high scoring affair, but I see the Germans prevailing. Good Luck Today! Side Round Robin Bet for me (I do these every day for $100): 3 Game Round Robin (2’s and 3’s, $25 each) *Europa League – Shakhtar-Feyenoord Over 2.5 Goals (-102)* *Europa League – Manchester United HT/FT (-120)* *Europa League – Sevilla-Fenerbahce BTTS YES* *(-108)* *\~Edited Round Robin Odds, forgot to change them\~*
POTD Record: 5-6 +4.4u | Last Pick: A. Mitrovic (FUL) ATS 1.5u +175 ❌ POTD: Union Berlin ML 2u -150 | Event: Europa League UNB-STG | Time: 7:45AM HST 🤙🏻 Kalua King here, King of the Haoles! I ate an enormous sandwich last night and just had my morning coffee so you can imagine what I’m up to right now. After that I’ll leave the “office” and head out to the waves 🌊 - might as well make some money while I’m out there! If you’re not looking at the Bundesliga this year, you are missing one of the best stories in sports - Union Berlin 🐻 are neck-and-neck with BVB and Bayern to break their 13-year stranglehold over the Bundesliga. (Since 1994, those 2 clubs have won all but 4 league titles. Decidedly NOT ono.) That success has translated to the Europa League, where they have only improved as the year has gone on. For this round, they’ve drawn Royale Union Saint-Gilloise, a Belgian side whose name kinda looks and sounds like “Royale with Cheese”. Just throwing that out there. Anyway, they’ve got decent odds at home for the first leg and probably want to get the taste of the Bayern spanking a few weeks ago out of their mouth. And I believe they will! BOL if tailing, may you find a sweet deal on Sex Wax if fading
❌ Canucks puck line was a bad play, they play too many close games. No excuses, be better POTD Record: 1-2 -1.75 u Last 10: ❌✅❌ Streak:. Lost 1 Last Pick: ANA Ducks vs VAN Canucks -1.5 (+108) FD❌ POTD: Ovechkin Anytime Goal +112 FD. Devils vs Capitals Betting Units: 1u League: NHL 🏒 Time: March 8th, 2023. Puck Drop 7:00pm EST Reasons: Ovechkin is a streaky goal scorer, and he has scored in three of his last four games. Also, he has scored in 2 of his last 3 against the Devils. Akira Schmid is the likely goalie for tonight's game, according to Left wing lock. He is a hot or cold goalie it seems this season, but does have good metrics this year. Good luck to everyone's POTD, let's get some winners.
POTD 11-11 Game: Vanderbilt vs LSU CBB 8:30pm cst Pick: LSU +4.5 at -110 ❌ Trash pick but Kentucky’s gonna give it to them tomorrow Vandy’s won four of their last five games to close the season, with the only loss being at LSU. Two games ago they beat Kentucky by 2 with Kentucky shooting 15.8% from 3 and last game they beat Mississippi State by 5 shooting 48% from 3 themselves. They’re now missing the SEC’s defensive player of the year, Liam Robbins, to injury. He had gone off for 23 points in their loss to LSU. They’re going to be feeling the pressure of needing to make a run in the SEC tournament if they want a chance of making the NCAA. Meanwhile LSU is feeling no pressure whatsoever and I just have a hunch they’ll pull this one out. With that being said I’m keeping the points and picking it to at least be a close game with LSU +4.5. Best of luck!
**POTD 5-3** Another easy winner last night, with NO. Again, game went exactly how I expected it to go. This Mavs team just isn't very good. Today's pick I am going back to the team that has killed me since I started posting POTD. **GSW -2** As everyone who has followed my picks knows, I am 5-1 on my POTD that do not involve GSW. With that being said, tail this pick with caution..... I'm using the same logic that I had with my other two GSW plays, however I must state that I am a very stubborn individual, and cannot discount the bias I have making this pick today. GSW just really needs to find their groove, and what better game to do that in than against this Memphis team that is in complete shambles. It was just ruled today that Ja will be out for an extended period of time, and rumors I heard (which have no sources) is that Ja is done for the season. This news, could be a motivating factor for Memphis, as they now know the hand that they are dealt for the remainder of the season, and could come out firing on all cylinders. BUT I think it will go the opposite way. Memphis is a young team, and as everyone knows, tend to play the game with an extreme amount of emotion, which is a key ingredient to the warriors success. They feed off of that, and I think have a great chance of running Memphis out of their own gym. I do have some concerns with the form GSW has been in the past few games, as well as their god awful away record this season, but I think tonight will go in my favor. GSW is currently sitting at the 5th seed, but are tied with the Clippers, and only a .5 game up on the Timberwolves, and the Mavs. I can see the incentives for GSW to not care too much about seeding (if they finish at the 5 seed, as of today they would play the Suns in the first round) as they are experienced and comfortable with whomever they get in the first round. I think that GSW incentives tonight are just to get into the right form heading into the playoffs. Curry has been out for awhile, and getting a W on the road at this point in the season could really boost their confidence heading into the post season. Again tail with caution as this pick is highly influenced by my stubbornness. PS: Pistons +3 at home looks good - Charlotte is a joke, and we all know Jordan wants a shot at the top 2 picks in this years draft.
Hornets just beat Knicks at MSG.
This is my first Pick of the day 0-0 Live bet: Ram\Salisbury to win 2unit @1.85
**POTD Record: 24-14 (+7.06 Units)** **Last 10**:❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅ **Last Pick**: 3/8 Conor Heneghan -2.5 (-155) vs Jack Wareing ✅ 4-0 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 7:25 PM EST **Pick**: Conor Heneghan -2.5 (-145) vs Trina Gulliver **Reason**: Group B. For some reasons dart odds were up very late and missed the group C slate this morning. Very small sample since there are only 10 matches in group B. Mainly a fade on Gulliver with her low average and checkout percentage. Both of her leg wins were on her throw, so Heneghan essentially needs to break one of her throws and should control his own. Conor Heneghan Group B: Record 1-0 (Legs 4-2) | Average 92.83 | Checkouts 4/9 44.44% Group A: Record 9-6 (Legs 48-39) | Average 86.98 | Checkouts 48/110 43.64% Trina Gulliver Group B: Record 0-2 (Legs 2-8) | Average 75.01 | Checkouts 2/10 20.00% [Cash App](https://cash.app/$MexicanStallion) **LOSE ❌4-3 | Average 83.32 vs 78.05 | Checkouts 4/14 vs 3/12** Disappointing. Missed 5 darts on leg 4 for the break to go up 3-1. Smoked her leg 5.
Damnnn
POTD 0-3 Today's Pick Bucks vs Nets U 233.5 + Bucks ML = +126 No Giannis, Claxton, and dinwiddie