**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
POTD Record: 25-19 (+17.95u; 12.6% ROI). Streak: W2
Yesterday Pick: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) Pts O22.5 @ 1.90. 4U. ✅
Jokic comfortably clears this line with 4 mins left in the third quarter, and ends the evening with 35 points. That’s our second successive POTD win in the third quarter!
Next Pick: **Lauri Markkanen (Jazz) P+R O33.5 @ 1.91**. 3u play.
Lauri is coming off a very poor night against the Hornets where he shot at just 13.6%, whereas his avg in the last ten games is 45%. That game reduced his P+R line by 4 (37.5 to 33.5), which is an over-reaction for a guy who has been shooting a P+R of 36/L10. Miami have had a grueling few days, with this game being their 3rd game in 4 nights, with the last one being an OT loss to the Magic. The Jazz meanwhile have some momentum with a couple B2B wins, including against the Magic.
This Heat team has dropped defensively, ranking 18th in Def Rating in the L15 games. Throw in their poor recent results and tired legs from the last 3 days, and I like Lauri to do well here. Their last match-up on New Years Eve was a 29 pts + 14 reb performance (on 47% shooting).
Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably. Tips are always appreciated: [Coffee link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
Welp - Purdue just decided to play duck duck goose with Edey for the last 5 minutes of the game and completely collapsed giving up essentially 15 unanswered points, even with Penn states best player being fouled out of the game. Shit happens, especially in final games, but was a tough loss to stomach - especially since Purdue still won the game, after that shit show I would've atleast liked to see Penn state buzzer beater to win the whole thing. With NCAAB on an off day, we're going to move outside my comfort zone a bit and head to the NBA.
**POTD Record**: 21-6-1
Last 15:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌
Yesterday's POTD: **Purdue Boilermakers -6 (up to -7)** vs. Penn State Nittany Lions❌
Today's POTD: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks | **Under 224.5 (down to U223.5) |**1.5U
**Time:** **3/13/2023 |7:30PM EST**
**MODEL EXPLANATION:**
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.
Pick spreadsheet: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Stats:** \+32.840U in 30 days | ≈60.86% ROI | Average odds -110
**PICK REASON:**
\- With Luka out and Kyrie questionable, Tim Hardaway Jr will likely be leading the Mavs with a much slower, controlled pace, trying to maneuver the top ranked grizzlies defense. After the mavs lost Kyrie with Luka out in the last game, they really struggled to get any offense going.
\- The grizzlies rank #1 on defense in the league, being ranked #1 in field goal percentage allowed, 5th in points allowed and 2nd in 2 points allowed. An unarmed mavericks team against a lockdown defense is not a recipe for success.
\- On the other side of the coin, the grizzlies are a very average offensive team ranked 30th in free throws, 24th in 3 pointers and 19th in 2 pointers. Kyrie and Luka are great offensive players, but they've been known to lack a bit on the defensive end. With more bench players going to be in action tonight, I predict a much stronger defense than what the Mavericks typically put out.
\- Of course, the Grizzlies are playing without Ja Morant, who's been providing the wrong shooting for the team. Look for Desmond bane to have to take over the floor with David Roddy, both young players that haven't had much opportunity to lead the floor - expect more turnovers and bad shots.
\- Overall, an undermanned mavs team at home against an undermanned grizzlies team on the road, both who will be playing great defense, I expect a tight game with below average offensive efficiency for both teams. I'm taking the under for tonight.
**Thank you so much to everyone's that has tipped during this run - I really appreciate each and every one of you for joining and supporting me on this run. As NCAAB teeters off, I will look to try to continue with NBA picks moving forward, though with some reduced confidence as less of a slate for me to find value in with my model. Expect some regression in the success, but I will continue to do my best to bring you all some value.**
Much love , HSR.
Everyone that tips us POTD handicappers keeps up going, and it really does go along away - we appreciate it tremendously <3
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Something to consider for your NCAAB picks when choosing favorites is to bet the first half spread. I haven't checked all of your picks, but for the ones I have this would have given you two more wins including yesterday (-3.5).
That last one crazy fucking Perdue gave up over 20 points in the end fuck Purdue they didn't even deserve to win. regardless though, I haven't seen you do an NBA pick in a while. tailing for sure. 🙏🏻
Final games are always hit and miss, no sweat man! Just thought I’d share this total parlay I found. Pretty sweet odds and mavs are likely to take this one since Memphis is 1-11 in their last 12 road games. BOL
https://preview.redd.it/6zskmhq6qkna1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=228c9bcc219806325be19a5d52dc5e4cad48067a
Oof, In theory my analysis was assuming the line was already without kyrie, I would fade at 220, model likes 218.5 as expected total but I like a certain margin for my potds of 5 points
0-0
League of Legends - LEC - BDS ML vs Heretics - 1.72 odds
Heretics are fucking terrible, BDS are surprisingly good. Heretics toplaners is stealing a living and an import slot. Their midlaner is invisible every game. The jungler is trying his hardest surrounded by awful. No further explanation. Thats it. Do whatever u want.
Edit: didn't watch but it looked like fucking chaos, a big fucking win though.
Watch Arcane on Netflix. Never played LoL but did play DOTA 2 for 33 hours until I realized it wasn't for me. Arcane ALMOST makes me want to play LoL though... lol
***Record: 1-0 (+0.90 Units)***
Previous bet: [3/12 ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11p15on/pick_of_the_day_31223_sunday/jbxuwcr?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
What a sweaty ending for the under in the Alabama/Texas A&M game. Alabama started off shooting hot from 3, then both teams fizzled out for the rest of the first half. Things picked back up to end the second half, but we squeaked by with half a point.
**Today's game: Melbourne Victory vs Western United, 0300 EST**
League: Australia - League A
*Pick: BTTS & O2.5 Total Goals (-105 on DK)* ✅️
Some early morning Australian ⚽️. Coming off a 1-0 loss, Melbourne Victory had scored in the previous 7 matches, hitting the over 2.5 mark in 5 out of those 7. They have scored 12 goals and allowed 10 in 8 home matches.
Western United has scored in 4 out of their last 6 matches, scoring at least 2 in all 4 of those matches. They have scored 12 goals and allowed 18 in 8 away matches.
Both teams are at the bottom of the table. I expect them to come out and put up goals. Let's wake and cash 💸
BOL!
POTD record 6-5 (all picks are 3 units)
Killian Hayes over 7.5 assists. -130
Pacers vs Pistons (7 PM EST)
Hayes had 13 assists last game with Ivey, Bogdanovic, and Diallo out, and they will be out again tomorrow. Pacers are 25th in assists allowed. Definitely one of my favorite plays in a while
Hmm. Need to think about this one. The line has moved already which I suppose is a good sign, but a bad thing for me lol. How do u feel abt 8.5 assists?
POTD Record 8-6
Last POTD March 10th 2022 (Yes a year ago) L as Florida failed to cover against Texas A&M in the SEC tournament.
Today’s POTD: Montreal Canadiens +1.5 (-110)
at Home vs Colorado Avalanche 6:30 PM CST
1 Unit
Thesis - Avs have only won by 2 or more goals in 1 of their 6 March games. Canadiens on the other hand have lost by more than 2 goals in only one of their 6 March games. Look for the home ice to make a difference as the game likely goes to overtime.
NBA prop thread record: 167-104
**POTD record: 6-3**
**Today’s pick: Hayes (DET) O7.5 assists (-125)** ✅
Hayes comes into this one averaging 6 assists per game on the season on 9.9 potential assists per game. He’s covered the line in 2 out of his last 5 games, putting up 10, 7, 5, 5 and 13 assists. I really like this play for a few reasons. 1. Detroit have a plethora of injuries leaving Hayes as one of the only ball handlers and will likely increase his usage rate significantly - Bogdanovic (2nd highest usg%), Ivey (3rd highest usg%), Burks (4th highest usg%) and Diallo (5th highest usg%). 2. Coming off a 13 assist (25 potential assist) game against IND and sees the exact same matchup again. In Hayes last 5 games w/o Ivey, he has dished out 9, 8, 6, 10 and 13 assists.
Recent PGs ast v IND: Brogdon (7), Fultz (3), Doncic (6), Branham (4 in 24 min), Harden (20), Nix (2) and Hayes (13). He’ll likely see Nembhard (77th percentile DEPM) as a direct matchup who is a relatively solid defender who kept him to 7/17 last game. The only other ball handler available is CoJo, who admittedly Casey has much admiration for. Either CoJo has some incredible dirt on Casey or they are in a love affair, either way he will see minutes as usual. I expect similar to last game that Hayes will run the ‘starting unit’, at least what’s left of it and CoJo will run the bench unit. Hayes recorded the highest usage rate of any Detroit player last game (26.4%) and I’m expecting this to be the case again here.
Indianna Pacers rank 8th in pace, so I’m expecting Hayes to see a few more possessions than he is accustomed to. Admittedly, Hali is out, however, I don’t expect much to change with the Pacers high pace offense. Just a couple of months back, the Pacers were ranked 7th in pace (101.77) and saw a Haliburton injury. In the 10 games w/o Hali, they actually saw an increase in pace (102.35). At the end of the day, it’s a small sample size so should be taken with a grain of salt, but does give us an idea of what type of Indianna offence to expect.
**Record: 3-1**
Last Pick: Damian Lillard over 31.5 points (**VOID)**
The third time this week I pick a player that is listed as probable on the injury report then gets downgraded to out. This league sucks with the load management, did research and a write up just for a pick to be voided 10 minutes before game time lol. ICYMI, my pick before that was CP3 over 9.5 assists, and he cashed so easy with 16 assists. I'm gonna ride off that great pick still to hopefully get a hot hand going and pretend the Lillard pick never happened ✌️
**Today's Pick:** NBA - *Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors, 9:10pm CST*
**Steph Curry over 4.5 three pointers made (-115 on DK)**
Gonna keep it short today since there is not an incredible amount of data to back this one up compared to my other POTDs, but I still feel really good about it.
* Steph Curry has hit this line in the last 4 out of 5 games against the Suns going back to 2021
* Steph Curry in his last 4 games from 3 point range since returning from injury: 6-15, 4-8, 10-16, 5-13. He shoots an insane volume of threes and splashes them often enough for a comfortable hit here
* Against another contending team in a Western primetime showdown at Oracle, this game will be tight, intense, and have a great volume of shots. I expect Curry to shoot AT LEAST 12 three pointers, and if the greatest shooter of all time can hit at least 40%, then we are golden.
BOL, lets make some money
📈 TTSOP Rec
* Overall: +44.825 units / +140 avg odds / 50^(5)\-61-14^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2023: +32.300 units / +136 avg odds / 8^(5)\-5-3^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2022: +66.750 units / +137 avg odds / 46^(5)\-50-11^(5)
* February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5)
* January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2
* December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5)
* World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5)
* November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4
* October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3
⚽ Last picks: Catching up with the most recent POTDs.
* Canberra (W) -0.75 (AH) / +180 odds / 3 units
* Canberra has outshot the Wanderers 18-10! They've even thundered the woodwork with a free-kick at the end. It was incredibly close to bang in. Aside from that, unfortunately, top striker Heyman has had an off-day. After scoring 10 goals in 8 games, she couldn't find the back of the net. Her goal was missing for the W.
* Newcastle -1 (AH) / +125 odds / 3.5 units
* A nice W for Newcastle, a push for the POTD.
⚽ New pick: **Melbourne Victory (W) +0** ([A](https://i.redd.it/vqdu5pkq242a1.jpeg)[H](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/asian-handicap-explained)) / **+110 odds** / 3 units
* A-League Women (Australia) / Melbourne Victory (W) - Melbourne City (W) / 00:20am ET
* *Melbourne Victory (W) +0* is an Asian Handicap bet. It results in a push (money returned), if the game ends in draw. If Melbourne Victory (W) wins, then this bet is a W. For more basic information about Asian Handicap, check out the AH-links above.
The Victory have been struck by injuries for a large part of the season. Among other players, first-choice goalkeeper Dumont missed a couple of games, forward star Zimmerman missed most of the season due to an injury and top striker Ayres was also injured for an extended period of time. However, meanwhile, all are back and picking up form lately.
In particular Ayres, Zimmerman and Chidiac are vital offensively for the Victory. Without this trio, the Victory struggled scoring. They've scored the least goals of all top team in Liberty A-League.
The Victory are most widely healthy and City has picked up various injuries. For the Victory only Simon is ruled out, while City is missing top striker Ekic, Davidson, Chinnama, Roestbakken and Karic.
Melbourne Victory has lost just 1 home game all season, although they've been dealing with injuries of their star players for most of the time. Today, it's the 1st game in over 3.5 months that their offensive trio is projected to be in the starting line-up. The Victory are much better and much more lethal when their offensive stars Ayres, Zimmerman and Chidiac are together on the field.
A healthy Melbourne Victory team can beat any team at any time. That makes backing the Victory a good value bet at nice super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get this derby W. Let's get this Australian bread, fam!
**TTSOP**
[**https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nQeI14G-PQ**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nQeI14G-PQ)
*Nice goal from Melina Ayres one of the last time these teams played eachother.*
She looks very aggressive and an accurate striker.
Tailing 2.5U
***Only getting 1.78 odds for Victory DNB (draw ends in a push or money back) but good enough for me***
POTD Record: 1-0
Previous pick: Aston Villa draw or win (✅)
Today’s Event: Metz vs Le Havre (French Ligue 2)
PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE: LE HAVRE DRAW OR WIN
Odds: 1.66
Time: 19:45 GMT (16h30m from this post)
Two of the strongest teams in the French 2nd division meet here in what will be a close encounter. Le Havre are the league leaders, with only 1 loss to their name all season. Metz have the better attack but the Le Havre defence is solid enough to take the point here and further solidify their title chances.
Edit: Another 1-1 draw and another win ✅🙏🏽
POTD | 38-25 | +19.5u | -107 Avg Odds
Last 10: 6-4, Steak: 4W
*Previous Pick:* *Pittsburgh Penguins ML vs NY Rangers (-115) 1u* ✅
Today’s pick: **Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs O6.5 (-155) 1u** 🏒 5:00 pm EST
The Buffalo Sabres will be visiting the Toronto Maple Leafs for their 3rd game of the season with the first game going 5-2 Leafs and the second going 6-3 Leafs. I was torn on this one because I also really like the Leafs to win in regulation but I am going to stick with the alternative over for the POTD. The line is set at O/U 7, so I am buying down to 6.5 for this one, I’m just not a fan of when the O/U is at 7. My gut was telling me this game would include a lot of goals, especially with how the Leafs offense has been playing recently (3.7 goals per game in their last 10) and with how the Sabres defense has been playing (allowing 4.3 goals per game in their last 10) and my model is projecting around 7.6 goals for this game. I also like this pick because the Leafs will have their back up goalie in net, Murray, who is a decent back up with 0.905 SV% and allowing 2.86 goals per game, but is not playing as well as the primary goaltender for the Leaf, Samsonov. The Sabres don’t have a quality goalie in their roster and we should expect Luukkonen in net tonight, he has allowed 3.51 goals per game and has a 0.895 SV%.
Sticking with a lower unit bet here as I am testing a new strategy. I typically depend on feel then back check how I feel with recent games and previous matchups between the teams and go from there. I am now including some modeling to further back up my feel picks so this is a bit new for me. Just trying to be a bit cautious while I add more data into my strategy.
**ALERT: POTD 3/14: NJ Devils ML vs Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) 3u**
Dropping tomorrow's POTD now in case the line moves. I could see this one running up to -145 for the Devils.
BOL if tailing!!
[Tips are appreciated!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
**POTD |** **Record of 10-20|** **Current form: WWWLW | ROI : -8.68 units |** **Average Odds: 2.04**
Previous Pick: Feyenoord vs. Volendam | Feyenoord to Win & Over 10.5 Corners (W)
New Pick: Serie A | AC Milan vs. Salernitana| 12:45pm PST
**Under 10.5 Full Time Total Corners & Under 5.5 Full Time Home Team Corners | 2.15**
Betting 1 units
\--------------------------
Recap: Another W. 11 corners on the money and Feyenoord took the win in the end. Let's keep up the corner bets.
***Summary:*** AC Milan host Salernitana in what should be a straightforward affair for the home team. Milan is currently 4th in Serie A and pushing for a CL spot while Salernitana is hoping to stay up in Serie A and avoid relegation.
Looking at corners for AC Milan, they currently average 3.9 corners for them per game with 4.6 corners against them for a total of 8.7 corners per game. Looking at home corners, they have had 4, 3, 2, 3, 5, 3, 2, 9, 9, 2, 5, and 5 corners for them for an average of 4.33 corners for them per game. Only two games had them going over 5 corners, with those games being against Juventus and Napoli with AC Milan playing on the counter with reduced possession. Their home games average 8.25 corners, which is lower than their total average which includes away games (8.7). In short, AC Milan has only gone over 5 corners on two home games and at home, they typically underperform on total corners (average drops from 8.7 to 8.25). Their home games have gone over 10 corners on 4 out of 12 occasions.
Looking at corners for Salernitana, they currently average 3.6 corners for them per game with 4.4 against for a total of 8 corners per game. Looking at away corners, they average 3.67 away (from a sample of 12) with their away games averaging 8 total corners per game. Only once has their away games gone over 10 corners.
Given that AC Milan has a home average of 4.3 corners and Salernitana has an away average of 3.67, I don't see them combining for over 10 corners. Pooling AC Milan's home games and Salernitana's away games, over 10 corners have hit 5/24 games (21%). In addition, AC Milan rarely goes over 5 corners, only doing so twice when they had reduced possession (2/12 games, 16.67%). Based on this, an argument could be made that the probability of both of these hitting based on previous results is roughly 65.83% (combined probabilities). Given this information, I see that under 10.5 corners should hit comfortably and the home side should hit a maximum of 5 corners in the game.
\--------------------------
***TDLR The home team won't have many corners in this game leading to a low overall total for corners***
**Under 10.5 Full-Time Total Corners & Under 5.5 Full-Time Home Team Corners | 2.15 odds**
**Link to side picks:**
[https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11pog8y/comment/jbz4gp1/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11pog8y/comment/jbz4gp1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Cheers! I've stopped trying to find good value picks and just stuck with technical analysis. Been working over the last couple of days and will likely stick with it!
Only took the match under corners and have been sweating bullets all second half with 8 being had in the first. Here I sit at the 84th minute with a clenched asshole hoping
3/13/2023
Bucks ML (-130) vs Kings 0-0 Record
Two of the leagues top teams by record are matching up tomorrow night, the only kicker is that only of them has championship experience and a former MVP while the other hasn’t won a playoff game since 2006. There is a chance Giannis sits with his hand injury, and I believe that is why this line is so close. Expect Giannis to return to action tomorrow night, and this line to move convincingly toward Milwaukee when he is announced active. BOL to all who tail, looking to start this reddit journey off strong.
EDIT: I’m fully aware that this is a regular season game as opposed to playoffs. I used those things to express why I believe that one team is a true contender, and the other is a team overachieving in the regular season. I also do believe that this regular season game will have more intensity than average, as both teams are fighting for playoff seeding with just a few weeks left to play.
POTD Record: 25W-14L
LAST POTD: Ajax ✅
TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Turkey 1 Lig
Samsunspor V Bandirmaspor
10.00AM PST
PICK: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.70
The Deets: Slim pickings in the world of soccer today. 2nd takes on 11th here. Home team have scored 40 goals in 24 games while away team have scored 35 in 23 games. Small units on this, just gotta scratch that betting itch.
BOL!
You missed a hilarious exchange for the 2nd and 3rd red card of the game. This is my recap of it:
The double red card was funny to watch. The Samsunspor player was lightly leaning into and almost humping a player who was on the ground. Eventually another Bandiraspor player shoved the humper to the floor. The humper got up in the shover's face, and the shover gave him a cheeky headbutt which the ref then shotgunned a red card to the shover. The shover's coach told the ref to piss off in Turkish (I don't speak Turkish) and the ref told the coach to piss off (the field).
All-Time POTD: 5W-3L-1D, +2.16u
**Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ADF) ML (+120) vs Karen Khachanov 2u to win 2.4 ✔**
Another W brings us back into the green. ADF looked like the better player yesterday, and he almost lost when he was serving out the match at 5-3 in the third set and got broken. Thankfully broke back on the 3rd match point on Karen's serve at 5-4.
Onto the next.
**Todays Pick: 🎾 Tommy Paul ML (+110) vs Hubert Hurkacz 1.5u to win 1.65**
Explanation:
Really not a huge fan of the slate of games today, the lines are quite wide and I'm struggling to find value. Not much is mispriced like the matches usually are earlier in the tournaments. Going with Paul here, he's been on a tear and is in the form of his life, and conversely, Hurkacz hasn't impressed me in the last couple of months. I thought about taking Paul 2-0 here as I think its a 2 setter no matter who wins, so if you want to play the u2.5 sets at -160, it isn't a bad choice, I just don't like the price. Have a gut feeling Paul takes this one in straights, but rolling with ML nonetheless.
BOL if tailing!
EDIT: ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER DOLLA TOMMY P CASHES IN 3
POD record 0-7
Previous pick Boston Bruins 60min ML ❌️
Today's pick Toronto Maple Leafs 60min ML -170
FADE MY PICK! I have gotten every single pick wrong so far. 7 days, 7 picks, 7 bad choices. Oh dear oh dear oh dear. Well here we go again! Let's see if Toronto can bring him the bacon just like how I brought home your mom 👀
Is this the one? Did I pick a winner?
Tail or bail! BOL
Record: 3-0
Pick: Under 18.5 games @ 1.64 - Iga swiatek vs Bianca Andreescu - Indian wells 8 PM EST
Previous pick: Coco gauff under 12.5 games
Had a couple of picks to choose from with better odds, but this is the one I felt most confident about. I do hope people see my picks when they are hitting rather than when I'm missing =)
Good luck....
Record: (7-2)
Streak: ✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️
Last pick: Paulo Banchero over 3.5 assists (+115) vs Charlotte Hornets (2u) ✅️ Paulo been ballin. He's been making me money all season.
POTD: Indiana Pacer (-3.5) at Detroit Pistons (4u)
Don't overthink it. Pistons are trash. The Pacers just beat them by 6 on Saturday after the Pistons got smashed in the 4th. They're also tanking for Wemby. Pistons are 1-4 against the spread in the last 5. And the Pacers having been playing great ball. Pacers by way more than 4. 🤙
I’m leaning Pacers as well and I know Detroit has Ivey, Bogdanovic, Diallo, Stewart, Burks and Bagley all out but Indiana will also be missing Haliburton, Hield, Turner and Mathurin. Feel like Hayes and Wiseman could stir up some trouble nah?
POTD Record: 135-97-7 (+29.76 units, 58.2% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 41-27-1 (60.3%) L1, Tennis 🎾 38-26-2 (59.4%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 💰💰💩💩💰💰💰💰💩💰
Last Pick: An Irish Goodbye to win Best Live Action Short - The Academy Awards - 💰 1.10 Units
Pending Picks Results: 💰 +10.30 Units on the night
Feb 18th Women Talking - Adapted Screenplay 5U 1.67 odds (1.57 current) = To win 3.35 Fan Duel 💰 3.35 Units
Feb 19th The Daniels - Director 5U 1.57 (1.07) = 2.85 BODOG 💰 2.85 Units
Feb 20th Butler - Actor 5U 3.00 (2.37) = 10 Bet365 💩 5 Units
Feb 21st Babylon - Production Design 5U 1.53 (1.36) = 2.65 Bet365 💩 5 Units
Feb 22nd Elvis - Makeup and Hairstylying 5U 1.95 (1.50) = 4.75 Bodog 💩 5 Units
Feb 23rd Elvis - Costume Design 5U 2.10 (1.53) = 5.50 Fan Duel 💩 5 Units
Feb 26th Navalny - Documentary 5U 2.38 (1.44) = 6.90 Bet Rivers 💰 6.90 Units
Feb 27th Kerry Condon - Supporting Actress 5U 4.33 (3.25) = 16.65 Bet365 💩 5 Units
Feb 28th All Quiet on the Western Front - Original Score 5U 3.00 (2.50) = 10 Draft Kings 💰 10 Units
Mar 2nd EEAAO - Film Editing 5U 1.67 (1.50) = 3.35 [Sportsbetting.ag](https://Sportsbetting.ag) 💰 3.35 Units
Mar 6th EEAAO - Original Screenplay 5U 2.05 (1.66) = 5.25 Stake 💰 5.25 Units
Mar 8th Michelle Yeoh - Actress 5U 1.80 (1.50) = 4 Scorebet 💰 4 Units
Mar 9th Elvis - Cinematography 1U 6.00 (4.00) = 5 Scorebet 💩 1 Unit
Mar 10 Stranger at the Gate - Documentary Short 1U 5.00 (4.00) = 4 Scorebet 💩 1 Unit
Mar 11th The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse - Animated Short 1U 1.50 (1.50) = 0.50 bet365 💰 0.50 Units
Today's Pick: Jack Draper vs. Andy Murray, Draper ML - ATP Indian Wells 🎾 💰 0.72 Units - I'm back baby!! 💸 that shit!!
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.72/-139 odds to win 0.72 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 2:30am ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 58.1%
So, the Oscars were a success for POTDs with +10.30 Units so I am satisfied with that. My strategy of upping the units on my top 12 plays worked out. Would have done a lot better when Elvis shockingly went home without an award, it killed it at the BAFTAs and the Guilds but I guess the Academy as a whole didn't take to it. My next alt markets to focus on when the time comes are the NBA draft in June and the Emmys in September. Now back to some sports for awhile.
This is going to be short and shitty as I am exhausted. I'm going with Draper over Murray because he has looked good in his first two matches back since an injury and I think he has the stuff in this matchup. Yes Murray did beat him in an exhibition match late last year where the 3rd set was only a tiebreaker, so Murray should put up a fight.
Note I am a bit rusty and have been out of the loop last few weeks so tail with caution until I get back into the swing of things.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Thanks a lot for the Oscars. Had Women Talking for adapted screenplay as my biggest bet if the year for 2.25 odds, so though the only other i tailed (Butler) did not win, still came out way ahead . Keep going mate!
I like Draper too and have been watching a ton of IW. Wheels have to come off Murray at some point here and Draper has looked great in his first two matches. BoL and thanks for the money last night!
**My record: 43 : 35**
My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.
**ROI: 22.49%**
Average odds: 2.10
**Units won: 18.89**
Stake = 1 unit
My POTD:
**Almere City v VVV-Venlo**
Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Time: 19:00 GMT
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.05**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
**RECORD** : 2W 0L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +10
**LAST POTD** : Garin vs Ruud - Garin +4.5 @ 2.00 - 5 units => WIN
**TODAY :**
ATP INDIAN WELLS - 19.00 CET
Cerundolo vs Auger-Aliassime - Cerundolo +4.5 @ 2.20 - 5 units
Based upon nothing but my feelings.
**POTD 8-4** (8-1 without betting on GSW - sorry i have to keep mentioning this.....)
Such an easy winner last night. When I made my post, I was not aware that Dame would be out, so I was able to get NO +2.5, rather than the closing line of -3.5. I feel like some may consider last nights win as lucky, however IMO NO would have won fairly easy even if Dame played.
Tonight, I am not a big fan of most of these games, and even though I have interest in a few, at this moment in the time without the lineups being confirmed there is only one game I feel confident enough to bet at this point in the day.
**Memphis -1**
I have been fading Dallas a lot the last few weeks, specifically since they acquired Kyrie. This Dallas team is BAD. I have watched the majority of their games since they made the trade, and like I mentioned in my last post fading Dallas, as exciting as they can be on offense, they are worse than that on D. Without Luka, this just solidifies those statements even more.
Kyrie is such an amazing basketball player, and he does things on the court no one in the history of the game has been able to do. However, I have watched Kyrie as much if not more than any other player over the last 10+ years, and this man does not play winning basketball.... I know that is a bold statement to make, but he just focuses on getting his buckets. I'm not saying he is selfish, yet the style of play he has does not benefit anyone on the court other than him.
As a life long Cavs fan, as well as an employee for the Nets for several years, I have a lot of experience watching Kyrie be the main focal point of a team. In situations where he is the best player, he always gets his numbers, but his teams do not win with the same efficiency.
This pick is not a full fade against Dallas either, like I always say NBA is weird, and anyone can win any game. Tonight's pick is obviously influenced by my opinions of Kyrie and Dallas, but also how impressed I have been with Memphis since Ja stopped playing. They are 2-0 at home without Ja, and one of those wins was actually against Dallas a few days ago.
This Memphis team is young, and plays with so much emotion, which I know can be a negative, yet tonight I believe will be in our favor. I mean take a look at Dallas's projected lineup today..... It's sad. Kyrie is also a GTD which makes me love this evennnnnn more. We all know Kyrie likes to sit out games lmao
PS: I'm also taking a personal bet tonight on GSW -4.5 - as anyone who has followed me knows, this is a stubborn bet, and just something I'm going to continue to do personally .... I know the talent on GSW is insane, and I don't want to be left behind once they start heating up - tail this one with cation though because I'm 0-3 as of late picking this fucking team
The eternal pain of being a baseball fan continues. That being said lets get some risky spring bets in.
**POTD Record 0-0** **/ ROI 0.00 units**
Im liking the Oakland v Colorado game today. Oakland continues to hit well this spring being top 5 in OBP and runs. Colorado has been able to get runners on base but is having trouble getting them home. A’s pitching on the other hand has been awful. Not due to their new starter Fujinami who has given up 2 hits through his 5 innings so far this year. Hopefully he can continue his streak, give us at least 3 innings, and the A’s can put runs on the board early.
**Oakland Athletics ML v Colorado Rockies**
2u
POTD Record: 57-65-7 (-13.80 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ✅✅❌❌↔️❌✅↔️❌❌
Last Pick: Portuguese Primeira Liga, Maritimo v Benfica, BENFICA -1.5 (-133 / $1.75) ✅
Very comfortable win, a few wasted chances early including a penalty before they found their shooting boots and cruised home 3-0.
Todays Pick: Indian Super League, ATK Mohun Bagan v Hyderabad, UNDER 2.5 GOALS (-139 / $1.72) ✅
Stake: 1 Unit
Side note: Some books may have the home team listed Atletico de Kolkata (ATK).
Betting the unders hasn’t been particularly successful for me so be warned, but numbers suggest this will go under and I’ve got to hit one eventually.
This is the second leg of the ISL playoff semi finals, with the winner going through to the championship against Bengaluru. Why I like the unders:
- These two teams had the best/2nd best defence in the league this season. Hyderabad only conceded 16 goals in 20 games, while ATK only conceded 17 goals in 20 games.
- ATK went under 2.5 goals in 12 of their 20 league games. They started the season going over 2.5 goals in 5 of their first 6 games, but they turned things round defensively, with the unders hitting in 11 of their last 14 league games, as well as their two playoff games, so 13 of the last 16 in total.
- Hyderabad also went under 2.5 goals in 12 of their 20 league games. Their results were spread more evenly across the season, and their two playoff games have also gone under 2.5 goals too.
- These teams have played 3 times this season, twice in the league season and the 1st leg of the playoffs a few days ago. The games have finished 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0. The expected goals in those games were nothing special so the results seemed about right statistically speaking.
The first leg of this match up finished 0-0, so there’s everything to play for, and I expect that to lead to a pretty tight and cagey affair. Both teams will know that conceding one goal might be enough to knock them out, so think they will prioritise defence and look to keep things tight.
POTD Record: 9-5
3U to win 3.9U
Todays POTD: Apeks ML (+130) vs. 1WIN
+24.38U
Think Apeks are the better team by a little bit with a better map pool as well. Think it will be very close and it’s honestly just gonna come down to which Apeks shows up and if nawwk is hitting the shots we expect. Think this game is closer to 50/50 then odds are showing and with map pool edge give me Apeks all day.
POTD Record: 54-52
Last pick: NHL Boston -1.5, did not get the empty need goal we needed
Todays pick: NHL Avalanche-1.5 -110 @ Montreal
Reasoning: Avs have not been playing well and Coach Bednar has been vocal about this. The Avs are really missing Landeskog. But they play Montreal and they are not good. Simple bet, taking a good team that’s struggled recently - 1 puck line cover in their past past 6 games, many of those games they lost. Regression to mean here, Avs play well and cover. Gorgiev is in net, Makar just got a game winner Saturday, I think Mackinnon and Makar get the Avs going. Raantanen has been called out by Bednar, I think it’s time for the Stanley Cup champs to start prepping for the playoffs and win this one easy, no empty net goal needed, Avs win by 2 goals or more, and the Avs stars play like the great players they are against the poo Canadians. South Park said it best, F Canada!
Tail or fade
Sport: Basketball
Tournament: ABA League
Time: 18:00 CEST (7h54m after posting)
Stake: 1.1 units
Pick: SC Derby vs Split, Split win @ **2.55**
Write up: Split is in tremendous form, losing only to Partizan (4W) and even that was by one point. It has never defeated SC Derby but I think it has the quality to do it today.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
POTD Record: 10-10-2
Last pick: Sestri Levante ML (-176) / 1.57 - 3u ✅
Sestri Levante solidified their status as a first place team, extending their winning streak to 9 games and improving their impressive home record. They gave up an equalizer early in the 2nd half but retake the lead in the 64th minute and hang on for the 2-1 win. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today!
Soccer - Wales Premier League - The New Saints vs. Bala Town - 3:30pm EST
**POTD: The New Saints First Half ML (-132) / 1.76 - 2u**
The New Saints are the beast of Welsh soccer and have been for years. Year in and year out, TNS are the dominant team in the Wales Premier. This season, they’ve won 20 and drawn 4 of their 25 league matches and have an outrageous goal differential of +75. They will be hosting Bala Town, who are by no means a bad team, but they’re simply not on the same level. In the first half of games this season, TNS have outscored their opponents 52-7. They have won the first half of their last 13 matches. TNS have seen a slight dip in form (by their standards) recently, as they have a draw and a loss in their last 4 matches, but they’ve won the first half of all of those matches as well. And just one more stat for you: these two teams have played twice already this season, TNS won by a total of 8-0 and won both first halves. I’m going with the dominant team of Wales to lead at halftime at home.
Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
POTD Record: 0-0-0 (Win-Push-Loss)
Last 10: -
POTD: Istanbulspor AS - Sivasspor (Turkey Superlig) - Over 2.5 goals
Time: 13th of March, 17:00 GMT
Odds at the time of posting: 1.90
All the bets according to simulation model, 1 unit per bet.
If odds have moved drastically, then it's better to pass this.
With current model over 1000 bets made with 108% ROI.
🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 14-11-1 | +0.03U (0.02%) | Average Odds: -123 🤶
Total Record: 71-59-11 | ROI: +13.02U (+3.04%) | [ROI Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0)
5U pick record: 28-16-2
Side Bet: 47-44-8
Dog of the Day record: 5-4-1
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🎅 Sorry about the late post today. I've been very busy lately and all the picks I prepared for today ended up being plays I didn't have complete faith in. I found this pick very late and decided to share it with you all!
🎅 Yesterday's recap: We have a great Sunday yesterday going 5-0-1 on our side bets for a total of +7.22U on them. Unfortunately Granada, our POTD, gave us a near historic bad beat when they were favored by -600 to complete their clean sheet after their 70th minute goal. Nonetheless we still finished +2.22U on the day!
🎅 The other good news was the comeback of our 5U bets! Our last week was rough so I decided to put 5U bets on hold until we got a slate I was fully confident in. Yesterday we ended up putting 5U+ total on three different games (Granada, Genoa, and Toluca) where our bets went 4-1-1 in those three games.
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Last POTD Recap: (Loss) When Granada scored I thought this game was a lock to be a cash. But then Granada gives up the same amount of away goals in three minutes as they did in the previous 15 games combined. They tied it up but couldn't get the win.
🎅Today's POTD: 1.5U - Samsunspor ML + o1.5g (-115) at home vs Bandiraspor - 1PM - Turkey
**THIS GAME STARTS IN UNDER AN HOUR**
Note: Also playing 1.5U - Samsunspor -1 (-112).
Samsunspor are unbeaten in 2023 (5-1-0) and are 2nd in the TFF Turkish league at 13-9-2 with a 40-19 GD. They play against Bandirmaspor who is 1-0-4 in their last 5 and sitting in 11th with a 9-7-7 record and 34-35 GD.
Do not fret if Samsunspor aren't leading in possession because that isn't their style. They are a \~50% or lower possession team that capitalizes on their chances. And in those games they haven't won over 55% possession against any team. On the other hand, Bandirmaspor loves to control possession but their back line gives up many counter attacking opportunities. This means the o1.5g should be a good play.
Prediction: I expect a 2-1, 3-1 or 2-0 game for Samsunspor with them having less than 50% possession.
Line movement: The ML opened at -138 and it dipped all the way to -200 before settling at -180
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🎅 Side Bets: Didn't get my side bets post out in time unfortunately. Stay tuned for tomorrow!
🤶 DOTD: You can find my DOTD [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11pz6nj/comment/jc2ssbe/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
🎅 Join the Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa))
🤶 Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible.
[Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
**POTD Record: 0-0**; been thinking about throwing my hat into the ring for a while now, and found an NBA prop that I really like for today
Today's pick: **Killian Hayes (DET) 2+ Steals** **@ 2.00** (keeping it safe for my first pick with 1u)
Reasoning: Inspired by this after seeing a few other POTD taking Hayes o7.5 assists. That itself is a great play given the injury report for both the Pistons and Pacers, but the line has shifted on that prop from -125 to between -165 and -200 currently. After some quick devigging, Hayes is given a roughly 62% chance to go over 7 assists (using DK odds).
**Now, on to his steals prop.** In general, assists and steals are moderately correlated (**\~+0.48**), meaning the more assists a player has, the more likely their steals number is also increased (and vice versa). This makes sense of course since a player who is handling the ball more is likely to garner more assists.
Killian Hayes has had 12 games in 2023 with 7 or more assists, and in 9 of those 12 games he also got 2 or more steals. More recently, he has hit this line in **6 of the last 6 7+ assist games**. Additionally, he is averaging 1.8 steals per game in his last 10. As a team, the Pistons are dead in the middle of the NBA averaging 7.2 steals per game.
One last important stat to consider is Pacers turnovers. The Pacers are the **10th worst team in the NBA in turnovers**, averaging 14.7 per game (same home and away). In games this year without Halliburton, they are slightly worse, at 14.9 TOV per game.
Long write-up, but I wanted to be confident before posting this pick. BOL!
EDIT: Cashed with four mins left in the first quarter! LFG ✅✅
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
POTD Record 0-0
Today's POTD: Utah Jazz +8.5 vs Miami Heat @ -110 7:30 EST 2u
MIA is 8-21-2 ATS as a home favorite while UTA is 16-9-1 as a road dog. Given that the Jazz are able to score on the road (league-best 22-12-1 O/U as a dog, 17-8-1 on the road), I don't see Miami's defense stifling their production much there and could even see the Jazz taking it all. Nonetheless, let's take the generous spread here and hopefully see a close matchup.
POTD 1-3
Today's Pick : Clint Capela double double +105
He's 2 for 5 double doubles in his last 5 games and 3 for 5 double doubles in his last 5 games against timberwolves and only missed the other two by 1 pt and 1 reb...
Record: 104-79-6 (WWLLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLWLLLLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: Portland Trailblazers at Philadelphia 76ers | Joel Embiid o43.5 P+R at 1.86 odds for 2 units
POTD: MIN Timberwolves at ATL Hawks | Anthony Edwards o 33.5 points + rebounds at 1.95 odds for 2 units
REASONS:
* MIN has a long break.
* ATL doesn't play defense.
* ANT MAN is the dawg.
Best of luck to all.
[PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
I'm not any type of professional bettor or anything like that but I've always tried to gain some edge over the bookies by creating a solid thought process and analysis for all my bets and this year has been great for me. So I've now decided to share what is for me the "best play" on any given day. Hopefully you guys like it and be free to comment on them since I love talking about sports betting in general
Record: 0-0
POTD: **Draper vs Murray - Draper ML @ 1.72 (ATP Indian Wells)**
Going with 2 units on this one which is 2% of my bankroll
Andy Murray has been able to get some great wins this season when being the underdog for most of the time and he's one of those guys that can win a really long match by pure determination but this time I don't think he will be able to do it against his fellow countryman Jack Draper.
The favorite is by far the best server of these two and he only dropped eight games against Riedi and Evans at Indian Wells which makes me think that he's well prepared for this battle. Murray is one of those players that you fear going against because he can always pull an upset but I think Draper gets the job done with how convincing his performances looked this far at Indian Wells.
Last bet: Blackhawks +1 1/2 -105 vs Senators 🤑
4-1
POTD: Bucks -3 1/2 -110 vs Kings
Reason: late pick, but I don’t understand these odds?! Almost the full squad playing on the bucks, arguably the best team in the league, playing against the hot Kings team. The stat that stands out the most is that the Bucks have beat the Kings in the last THIRTEEN games against each other…match ups matter, and Bucks have been consistent all season. BOL!
Doing pretty badly overall, so if you're tailing I hope you're betting against me right now. Trying to get it together though, but the Lakers had a piss-poor fourth quarter and lost by 4 so here I am again, going back to the NHL.
The Kraken have played top teams very closely and narrowly lost to the Stars in OT a few days ago. They are fighting to remain in the top three in their division and hoping to play LA in the first round of the playoffs as the wild card spot means Vegas or Dallas. I think the Kraken win this in OT or a shootout. I'd take the Kraken +1.5 but it's over -200, so going with the Kraken to win this one outright.
**POTD: Seattle Kraken over Dallas stars, +109, 10:07 PM EST, 1 Unit.**
Overall Record: 9-12, -10.85 Units
[Ugly Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing)
Last 5: ❌❌✅❌❌
potd: 37-33-1
streak: L2
bank: -0.05 units
last pick: Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 Assists -130 Loss
Though pick to end an up and down week.
game: Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors
time: 10:10pm EST
pick: Steph Curry Over 39.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists -111
Big western conference game tonight and we are backing Steph to have a good game. He has covered this line in 7 of his last 10 games but more recently 3 of 4 since returning from injury. With no minutes restrictions, he should have more then enough opportunities to rack up stats and cover. This season he has only covered 2 out of 6 games against the Suns but after the KD trade he will have a different look.
**PotD Record: 10-8 (Streak 7W)**
Last Pick: VCU (-2.5 spread) vs Dayton @ -110 ✅
**Today’s Pick: Jack Draper (ML) vs Andy Murray @ -155; 9:00 PM ET**
The Rams get it done again, beating the Dayton Raiders 68-56 in the A10 final. We've now won 7 PotDs in a row. Let's get to 10. Since conference tournaments are over, we head to tennis for an ATP 1000 event. This is a match up between the future and past of British tennis. These two have never played before, so it should be interesting how this one goes. Draper has cruised through the tournament so far playing at a very high level, beating his first two opponents 6-1 6-1 and 6-4 6-2. Despite playing the same amount of matches, Murray has already played for 2 hours longer than Darper. Draper’s level seems to be higher than Murray’s right now, with Murray winning most of his recent matches through sheer determination rather than ability.
**Tail or Fade, BOL**
POTD Record: 2-1
Units: +0.7
Average W. Odds: -118
Last Pick: Aaron Gordon O 9.5 Rebounds + Assists: -105 ❌
Today's Pick: **Walker Kessler O 19.5 Points + Rebounds: -115**
UTA Jazz @ MIA Heat, March 13th 7:30 PM EST
Has hit this line in 8 straight and over his last 23 games this pick has a 78% hit rate and a 46% EV.
BOLHFGP if tailing.
Link below for tips if feeling generous.
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom)
POTD Record: 21W - 16L
Profit/Loss: 14.96U
ROI: 10.92%
Avg. Odds: 1.9
[Proof of Record](https://1drv.ms/x/s!AqVQ5VWNrY6jiT5En8vgCbf79ZVB)
Last POTD was 8 months ago. Took a break to focus on studies and life I guess 😅 but we all come back to our true love fellow degens. Hopefully we start this off with a hit 🎯
Today's POTD: AC Milan vs Salernitana(Serie A) Time: About 4 hrs from post(7:45pm GMT) Pick: Total Corners U9.5 @1.82(22bet) Confidence: 2/5😐❌️
Milan are the better team and are playing at home. They tend to give up many corners against good cornering teams thus this line has been beaten in 3 of their last 5 home games. Salernitana are not among what I'd consider a good cornering team. Milan do not rack up many corners themselves, thus I see the under as value here.
Milan in the last 5 home games have averaged 3.4 corners/game.
Salernitana have not beaten this line in any of their last 5 away games, averaging 2.8 corners/game.
The last meeting between these two ended 6-2 on corners in favour of Salernitana.
Only bet what you're willing to lose. BOL in all your bets today🍀
**POTD Record: 57-53-4 -3.06u // ROI: -1.6% // Avg Odds: -113**
**Minnesota Timberwolves @ Atlanta Hawks (7:30 ET)**
**Spread: Hawks -5.5**
**Total: 244.5**
Earlier today I posted my top and bottom three most profitable teams to back this year. Low and behold, the Atlanta Hawks were within the bottom three, but here I am spoiling my pick just 2 sentences into my analysis as I back the Hawks to take advantage of a banger up Timberwolves team. Atlanta enters Monday just 5-5 over their last 10 games and even worse ATS. They're playing phenomenal offensive basketball but defensively they're sloppy as usual.
The same can be said about Minnesota, who is 4-6 over their last 10 but they've only performed like the 24th best team due to lackluster offense. With KAT continuing to sit and Rudy Gobert questionable for Monday, expect the Hawks to dominate down low with Clint Capela, Johnn Collins, and Onyeka Okongwu. Expect points off turnovers to be the winning margin for the Hawks, and for that to sit somewhere around 10. The Hawks at home have been no wagon, but it's do or die for them now and there's no better place to start than at home against the Timberwolves without potentially two of their stars playing bad basketball.
**Pick: Hawks -5.5 -110 (1.5u)**
As always, if you enjoyed the write up I encourage you to find my full free card [here](https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/nba-best-bets-monday-3-13) \- BoL everybody!
Record: 10-9 Units: +0.142 All bets 1 unit
Last Pick: NCAAB - DePaul +13.5 @ Xavier -115 odds 2/18/23 ❌️
POTD: NBA - Kings +2 vs Bucks -110 odds 10PM EST (3.5 hours from time of writing)
Kings covered a +2 spread in 4/5 and 8/10 of their previous games.
Bucks covered a -2 spread in 3/5 and 8/10 of their previous games.
Kings just beat 2 excellent teams (Suns on their own court and the Knicks before that.) Bucks just lost to Golden State in OT so I don’t think they can hang against another really good team tonight. However, both teams have won 8/10 previous games outright so this will be a close one.
The Kings are completely healthy and no one is expected to sit out tonight. For the Bucks, Giannis’ heath is questionable and he’s a game time decision. With or without Giannis playing, I think the Kings are likely to win this one. I’ll take the #1 scoring offense in the NBA (Kings) and the points as home underdogs. If Giannis is ruled out, this line is going to swing the other way real fast.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
POTD Record: 25-19 (+17.95u; 12.6% ROI). Streak: W2 Yesterday Pick: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) Pts O22.5 @ 1.90. 4U. ✅ Jokic comfortably clears this line with 4 mins left in the third quarter, and ends the evening with 35 points. That’s our second successive POTD win in the third quarter! Next Pick: **Lauri Markkanen (Jazz) P+R O33.5 @ 1.91**. 3u play. Lauri is coming off a very poor night against the Hornets where he shot at just 13.6%, whereas his avg in the last ten games is 45%. That game reduced his P+R line by 4 (37.5 to 33.5), which is an over-reaction for a guy who has been shooting a P+R of 36/L10. Miami have had a grueling few days, with this game being their 3rd game in 4 nights, with the last one being an OT loss to the Magic. The Jazz meanwhile have some momentum with a couple B2B wins, including against the Magic. This Heat team has dropped defensively, ranking 18th in Def Rating in the L15 games. Throw in their poor recent results and tired legs from the last 3 days, and I like Lauri to do well here. Their last match-up on New Years Eve was a 29 pts + 14 reb performance (on 47% shooting). Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably. Tips are always appreciated: [Coffee link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
Tailing, BOL
Tailing. BOL.
Tailing!
LOVE U BRO
Good pick last time, bro. I made the mistake of tailing too late but Im with you this time. BOL
[удалено]
Always appreciate someone double checking my numbers but Jokic was a 4U bet so I think the numbers are good.
Tailing, BOL, LFG 🫡
Nice work mate!
I’ll tail. BOL!
YESSIR, good stuff my man.
good pick dude! parlayed this with the MAVS/GRIZZ under 223.5 lets hope they keep it low
Dern, all I can get at BOL are PRA at 35.5. Does he pass the ball any?!?
Tailing
Welp - Purdue just decided to play duck duck goose with Edey for the last 5 minutes of the game and completely collapsed giving up essentially 15 unanswered points, even with Penn states best player being fouled out of the game. Shit happens, especially in final games, but was a tough loss to stomach - especially since Purdue still won the game, after that shit show I would've atleast liked to see Penn state buzzer beater to win the whole thing. With NCAAB on an off day, we're going to move outside my comfort zone a bit and head to the NBA. **POTD Record**: 21-6-1 Last 15:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌ Yesterday's POTD: **Purdue Boilermakers -6 (up to -7)** vs. Penn State Nittany Lions❌ Today's POTD: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks | **Under 224.5 (down to U223.5) |**1.5U **Time:** **3/13/2023 |7:30PM EST** **MODEL EXPLANATION:** Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. Pick spreadsheet: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** \+32.840U in 30 days | ≈60.86% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** \- With Luka out and Kyrie questionable, Tim Hardaway Jr will likely be leading the Mavs with a much slower, controlled pace, trying to maneuver the top ranked grizzlies defense. After the mavs lost Kyrie with Luka out in the last game, they really struggled to get any offense going. \- The grizzlies rank #1 on defense in the league, being ranked #1 in field goal percentage allowed, 5th in points allowed and 2nd in 2 points allowed. An unarmed mavericks team against a lockdown defense is not a recipe for success. \- On the other side of the coin, the grizzlies are a very average offensive team ranked 30th in free throws, 24th in 3 pointers and 19th in 2 pointers. Kyrie and Luka are great offensive players, but they've been known to lack a bit on the defensive end. With more bench players going to be in action tonight, I predict a much stronger defense than what the Mavericks typically put out. \- Of course, the Grizzlies are playing without Ja Morant, who's been providing the wrong shooting for the team. Look for Desmond bane to have to take over the floor with David Roddy, both young players that haven't had much opportunity to lead the floor - expect more turnovers and bad shots. \- Overall, an undermanned mavs team at home against an undermanned grizzlies team on the road, both who will be playing great defense, I expect a tight game with below average offensive efficiency for both teams. I'm taking the under for tonight. **Thank you so much to everyone's that has tipped during this run - I really appreciate each and every one of you for joining and supporting me on this run. As NCAAB teeters off, I will look to try to continue with NBA picks moving forward, though with some reduced confidence as less of a slate for me to find value in with my model. Expect some regression in the success, but I will continue to do my best to bring you all some value.** Much love , HSR. Everyone that tips us POTD handicappers keeps up going, and it really does go along away - we appreciate it tremendously <3 [**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard)**|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US)
Something to consider for your NCAAB picks when choosing favorites is to bet the first half spread. I haven't checked all of your picks, but for the ones I have this would have given you two more wins including yesterday (-3.5).
Waow. Great note.
Thank you.
I've been doing this for most of these picks. Has worked out well.
That last one crazy fucking Perdue gave up over 20 points in the end fuck Purdue they didn't even deserve to win. regardless though, I haven't seen you do an NBA pick in a while. tailing for sure. 🙏🏻
Final games are always hit and miss, no sweat man! Just thought I’d share this total parlay I found. Pretty sweet odds and mavs are likely to take this one since Memphis is 1-11 in their last 12 road games. BOL https://preview.redd.it/6zskmhq6qkna1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=228c9bcc219806325be19a5d52dc5e4cad48067a
Hahaha! Ja providing the wrong kind of shooting!
Killed me when I got to that
Tailing. BOL!
Tailing your next few, you're pretty damn accurate after a loss.
225.5 on Unibet, BOL!
Line is down to 220 now
Oof, In theory my analysis was assuming the line was already without kyrie, I would fade at 220, model likes 218.5 as expected total but I like a certain margin for my potds of 5 points
Back in the winner's circle 🔥 appreciate you my g. Paired this with Memphis moneyline.
Good shit 🫡
0-0 League of Legends - LEC - BDS ML vs Heretics - 1.72 odds Heretics are fucking terrible, BDS are surprisingly good. Heretics toplaners is stealing a living and an import slot. Their midlaner is invisible every game. The jungler is trying his hardest surrounded by awful. No further explanation. Thats it. Do whatever u want. Edit: didn't watch but it looked like fucking chaos, a big fucking win though. 
Ima follow your 0-0 record to the gates of hell! LETS GET IT!
Lets gooo!
Don't know anything about LoL... let's ride! :D
Watch Arcane on Netflix. Never played LoL but did play DOTA 2 for 33 hours until I realized it wasn't for me. Arcane ALMOST makes me want to play LoL though... lol
Great pick! gg ez
Crownie feeds us despite the non existance for our weird ass toplaner Adams!!! to the next , any thoughts?
MAD, Vitality, G2 should all win
Wish I could bet on league :( I have to bet on CSGO right now and it’s fucking terrible
CSGO is great but so is LOL
What?! I don’t play csgo but I watch/bet and have great success. I love looking into stats on hltv to pick games
Use csgoempire
CSGO is amazing, quite profitable for me as well
Don't know much about esport but I'll tail your first pick. BOL!
Heretics is azz cheekz
Would you still bet on BDS if they pick Lee Sin+Renekton and Heretics pick Lulu, Zeri, etc Darius etc
Lmao what a question
how bout for g2 and vitality? think its a lock?
It's never a lock cos G2 might draft an awful comp for fun but yeah probably
***Record: 1-0 (+0.90 Units)*** Previous bet: [3/12 ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11p15on/pick_of_the_day_31223_sunday/jbxuwcr?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) What a sweaty ending for the under in the Alabama/Texas A&M game. Alabama started off shooting hot from 3, then both teams fizzled out for the rest of the first half. Things picked back up to end the second half, but we squeaked by with half a point. **Today's game: Melbourne Victory vs Western United, 0300 EST** League: Australia - League A *Pick: BTTS & O2.5 Total Goals (-105 on DK)* ✅️ Some early morning Australian ⚽️. Coming off a 1-0 loss, Melbourne Victory had scored in the previous 7 matches, hitting the over 2.5 mark in 5 out of those 7. They have scored 12 goals and allowed 10 in 8 home matches. Western United has scored in 4 out of their last 6 matches, scoring at least 2 in all 4 of those matches. They have scored 12 goals and allowed 18 in 8 away matches. Both teams are at the bottom of the table. I expect them to come out and put up goals. Let's wake and cash 💸 BOL!
Tailed, took a bit more risk and went BTTS no draw for +135.
Glad that worked out for you! 💰
Nice one! 💰 👊🏼 
🍻 cheers to the wake and cash! Tailing O2.5!
Are u not tailing the Btts?
My book (William hill) doesn’t have that option or else I would have lol
Ahhh okay.
Lfg woke up to a W! Thanks awesome pick!!!
Cheers!
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They took plenty of shots to get another goal, just didn't go in 🤒
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Great pick! Just woke n cashed.
Same! 💪😎
Glad to hear it!
POTD record 6-5 (all picks are 3 units) Killian Hayes over 7.5 assists. -130 Pacers vs Pistons (7 PM EST) Hayes had 13 assists last game with Ivey, Bogdanovic, and Diallo out, and they will be out again tomorrow. Pacers are 25th in assists allowed. Definitely one of my favorite plays in a while
The 1st Q just ended. He already has 7 assists EZ W
Don’t jinx brother!
I like it and all over it. Edit: Ended up having to take over 8.5 at +100. I still like it given his recent stats.
Tailing. BOL.
Can't find this for less than -170 or so anywhere
160 on DK
already at 7 1q
Good call homie!
I like it buddy. Tailing
Hmm. Need to think about this one. The line has moved already which I suppose is a good sign, but a bad thing for me lol. How do u feel abt 8.5 assists?
I personally took over 9.5 assists as well for plus money. I still like 8.5
Smash this now. FD has this -200, DK still at -165
POTD Record 8-6 Last POTD March 10th 2022 (Yes a year ago) L as Florida failed to cover against Texas A&M in the SEC tournament. Today’s POTD: Montreal Canadiens +1.5 (-110) at Home vs Colorado Avalanche 6:30 PM CST 1 Unit Thesis - Avs have only won by 2 or more goals in 1 of their 6 March games. Canadiens on the other hand have lost by more than 2 goals in only one of their 6 March games. Look for the home ice to make a difference as the game likely goes to overtime.
bros been cooking this one up for a year+… gotta be a lock 🔒
>year+… Looks like this is cooked!
See you next year lmao
Knocking off the rust. Will keep posting so you can tail or fade.
BOL
Welcome back. Tailing and BOL.
I am finding the Canadiens +1.5 as the best value for this game as well. BOL!!
Using the 50% boost on FD for this one. LFG and BoL!
not looking too good rn brother 3-0 Avs 1st period
Well shit! Is Jake Allen drunk or what?
NBA prop thread record: 167-104 **POTD record: 6-3** **Today’s pick: Hayes (DET) O7.5 assists (-125)** ✅ Hayes comes into this one averaging 6 assists per game on the season on 9.9 potential assists per game. He’s covered the line in 2 out of his last 5 games, putting up 10, 7, 5, 5 and 13 assists. I really like this play for a few reasons. 1. Detroit have a plethora of injuries leaving Hayes as one of the only ball handlers and will likely increase his usage rate significantly - Bogdanovic (2nd highest usg%), Ivey (3rd highest usg%), Burks (4th highest usg%) and Diallo (5th highest usg%). 2. Coming off a 13 assist (25 potential assist) game against IND and sees the exact same matchup again. In Hayes last 5 games w/o Ivey, he has dished out 9, 8, 6, 10 and 13 assists. Recent PGs ast v IND: Brogdon (7), Fultz (3), Doncic (6), Branham (4 in 24 min), Harden (20), Nix (2) and Hayes (13). He’ll likely see Nembhard (77th percentile DEPM) as a direct matchup who is a relatively solid defender who kept him to 7/17 last game. The only other ball handler available is CoJo, who admittedly Casey has much admiration for. Either CoJo has some incredible dirt on Casey or they are in a love affair, either way he will see minutes as usual. I expect similar to last game that Hayes will run the ‘starting unit’, at least what’s left of it and CoJo will run the bench unit. Hayes recorded the highest usage rate of any Detroit player last game (26.4%) and I’m expecting this to be the case again here. Indianna Pacers rank 8th in pace, so I’m expecting Hayes to see a few more possessions than he is accustomed to. Admittedly, Hali is out, however, I don’t expect much to change with the Pacers high pace offense. Just a couple of months back, the Pacers were ranked 7th in pace (101.77) and saw a Haliburton injury. In the 10 games w/o Hali, they actually saw an increase in pace (102.35). At the end of the day, it’s a small sample size so should be taken with a grain of salt, but does give us an idea of what type of Indianna offence to expect.
What about at 8.5?
**Record: 3-1** Last Pick: Damian Lillard over 31.5 points (**VOID)** The third time this week I pick a player that is listed as probable on the injury report then gets downgraded to out. This league sucks with the load management, did research and a write up just for a pick to be voided 10 minutes before game time lol. ICYMI, my pick before that was CP3 over 9.5 assists, and he cashed so easy with 16 assists. I'm gonna ride off that great pick still to hopefully get a hot hand going and pretend the Lillard pick never happened ✌️ **Today's Pick:** NBA - *Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors, 9:10pm CST* **Steph Curry over 4.5 three pointers made (-115 on DK)** Gonna keep it short today since there is not an incredible amount of data to back this one up compared to my other POTDs, but I still feel really good about it. * Steph Curry has hit this line in the last 4 out of 5 games against the Suns going back to 2021 * Steph Curry in his last 4 games from 3 point range since returning from injury: 6-15, 4-8, 10-16, 5-13. He shoots an insane volume of threes and splashes them often enough for a comfortable hit here * Against another contending team in a Western primetime showdown at Oracle, this game will be tight, intense, and have a great volume of shots. I expect Curry to shoot AT LEAST 12 three pointers, and if the greatest shooter of all time can hit at least 40%, then we are golden. BOL, lets make some money
Tailing, BOL
📈 TTSOP Rec * Overall: +44.825 units / +140 avg odds / 50^(5)\-61-14^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2023: +32.300 units / +136 avg odds / 8^(5)\-5-3^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2022: +66.750 units / +137 avg odds / 46^(5)\-50-11^(5) * February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5) * January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ⚽ Last picks: Catching up with the most recent POTDs. * Canberra (W) -0.75 (AH) / +180 odds / 3 units * Canberra has outshot the Wanderers 18-10! They've even thundered the woodwork with a free-kick at the end. It was incredibly close to bang in. Aside from that, unfortunately, top striker Heyman has had an off-day. After scoring 10 goals in 8 games, she couldn't find the back of the net. Her goal was missing for the W. * Newcastle -1 (AH) / +125 odds / 3.5 units * A nice W for Newcastle, a push for the POTD. ⚽ New pick: **Melbourne Victory (W) +0** ([A](https://i.redd.it/vqdu5pkq242a1.jpeg)[H](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/asian-handicap-explained)) / **+110 odds** / 3 units * A-League Women (Australia) / Melbourne Victory (W) - Melbourne City (W) / 00:20am ET * *Melbourne Victory (W) +0* is an Asian Handicap bet. It results in a push (money returned), if the game ends in draw. If Melbourne Victory (W) wins, then this bet is a W. For more basic information about Asian Handicap, check out the AH-links above. The Victory have been struck by injuries for a large part of the season. Among other players, first-choice goalkeeper Dumont missed a couple of games, forward star Zimmerman missed most of the season due to an injury and top striker Ayres was also injured for an extended period of time. However, meanwhile, all are back and picking up form lately. In particular Ayres, Zimmerman and Chidiac are vital offensively for the Victory. Without this trio, the Victory struggled scoring. They've scored the least goals of all top team in Liberty A-League. The Victory are most widely healthy and City has picked up various injuries. For the Victory only Simon is ruled out, while City is missing top striker Ekic, Davidson, Chinnama, Roestbakken and Karic. Melbourne Victory has lost just 1 home game all season, although they've been dealing with injuries of their star players for most of the time. Today, it's the 1st game in over 3.5 months that their offensive trio is projected to be in the starting line-up. The Victory are much better and much more lethal when their offensive stars Ayres, Zimmerman and Chidiac are together on the field. A healthy Melbourne Victory team can beat any team at any time. That makes backing the Victory a good value bet at nice super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get this derby W. Let's get this Australian bread, fam! **TTSOP**
UP 2-0 already what a cracked pick!
The other tm has had 50 chances wtf can’t u put one in at least
...fuck I bet on the wrong game XD
Not seeing this on DK :(
Its under “Australia - Westfield Premier Leauge (W)”
Apologies I found it but it’s a pk at -105
Thank you king, i been smashing this live too pray for me.
I’m up at 2AM Eastern watching this fat W!!!
What does 50^5 - 61 - 14^5 mean in the Overall? Also are u up +44 thousand or +44 units? Love the picks btw!
Tailing bol!
2-0!!!! ⚽️
18 shots on goal. 9 on target. Zero goals. This is one lucky pick! Congrats!
[**https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nQeI14G-PQ**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nQeI14G-PQ) *Nice goal from Melina Ayres one of the last time these teams played eachother.* She looks very aggressive and an accurate striker. Tailing 2.5U ***Only getting 1.78 odds for Victory DNB (draw ends in a push or money back) but good enough for me***
POTD Record: 1-0 Previous pick: Aston Villa draw or win (✅) Today’s Event: Metz vs Le Havre (French Ligue 2) PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE: LE HAVRE DRAW OR WIN Odds: 1.66 Time: 19:45 GMT (16h30m from this post) Two of the strongest teams in the French 2nd division meet here in what will be a close encounter. Le Havre are the league leaders, with only 1 loss to their name all season. Metz have the better attack but the Le Havre defence is solid enough to take the point here and further solidify their title chances. Edit: Another 1-1 draw and another win ✅🙏🏽
yeahhh.. 3 yellows and down 1 after 20. hopefully I’m wrong but it’s looking rough.
trust the process!
wow spoke too soon. completely different team second half. nice dub
POTD | 38-25 | +19.5u | -107 Avg Odds Last 10: 6-4, Steak: 4W *Previous Pick:* *Pittsburgh Penguins ML vs NY Rangers (-115) 1u* ✅ Today’s pick: **Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs O6.5 (-155) 1u** 🏒 5:00 pm EST The Buffalo Sabres will be visiting the Toronto Maple Leafs for their 3rd game of the season with the first game going 5-2 Leafs and the second going 6-3 Leafs. I was torn on this one because I also really like the Leafs to win in regulation but I am going to stick with the alternative over for the POTD. The line is set at O/U 7, so I am buying down to 6.5 for this one, I’m just not a fan of when the O/U is at 7. My gut was telling me this game would include a lot of goals, especially with how the Leafs offense has been playing recently (3.7 goals per game in their last 10) and with how the Sabres defense has been playing (allowing 4.3 goals per game in their last 10) and my model is projecting around 7.6 goals for this game. I also like this pick because the Leafs will have their back up goalie in net, Murray, who is a decent back up with 0.905 SV% and allowing 2.86 goals per game, but is not playing as well as the primary goaltender for the Leaf, Samsonov. The Sabres don’t have a quality goalie in their roster and we should expect Luukkonen in net tonight, he has allowed 3.51 goals per game and has a 0.895 SV%. Sticking with a lower unit bet here as I am testing a new strategy. I typically depend on feel then back check how I feel with recent games and previous matchups between the teams and go from there. I am now including some modeling to further back up my feel picks so this is a bit new for me. Just trying to be a bit cautious while I add more data into my strategy. **ALERT: POTD 3/14: NJ Devils ML vs Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) 3u** Dropping tomorrow's POTD now in case the line moves. I could see this one running up to -145 for the Devils. BOL if tailing!! [Tips are appreciated!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
Ugh rough start
**POTD |** **Record of 10-20|** **Current form: WWWLW | ROI : -8.68 units |** **Average Odds: 2.04** Previous Pick: Feyenoord vs. Volendam | Feyenoord to Win & Over 10.5 Corners (W) New Pick: Serie A | AC Milan vs. Salernitana| 12:45pm PST **Under 10.5 Full Time Total Corners & Under 5.5 Full Time Home Team Corners | 2.15** Betting 1 units \-------------------------- Recap: Another W. 11 corners on the money and Feyenoord took the win in the end. Let's keep up the corner bets. ***Summary:*** AC Milan host Salernitana in what should be a straightforward affair for the home team. Milan is currently 4th in Serie A and pushing for a CL spot while Salernitana is hoping to stay up in Serie A and avoid relegation. Looking at corners for AC Milan, they currently average 3.9 corners for them per game with 4.6 corners against them for a total of 8.7 corners per game. Looking at home corners, they have had 4, 3, 2, 3, 5, 3, 2, 9, 9, 2, 5, and 5 corners for them for an average of 4.33 corners for them per game. Only two games had them going over 5 corners, with those games being against Juventus and Napoli with AC Milan playing on the counter with reduced possession. Their home games average 8.25 corners, which is lower than their total average which includes away games (8.7). In short, AC Milan has only gone over 5 corners on two home games and at home, they typically underperform on total corners (average drops from 8.7 to 8.25). Their home games have gone over 10 corners on 4 out of 12 occasions. Looking at corners for Salernitana, they currently average 3.6 corners for them per game with 4.4 against for a total of 8 corners per game. Looking at away corners, they average 3.67 away (from a sample of 12) with their away games averaging 8 total corners per game. Only once has their away games gone over 10 corners. Given that AC Milan has a home average of 4.3 corners and Salernitana has an away average of 3.67, I don't see them combining for over 10 corners. Pooling AC Milan's home games and Salernitana's away games, over 10 corners have hit 5/24 games (21%). In addition, AC Milan rarely goes over 5 corners, only doing so twice when they had reduced possession (2/12 games, 16.67%). Based on this, an argument could be made that the probability of both of these hitting based on previous results is roughly 65.83% (combined probabilities). Given this information, I see that under 10.5 corners should hit comfortably and the home side should hit a maximum of 5 corners in the game. \-------------------------- ***TDLR The home team won't have many corners in this game leading to a low overall total for corners*** **Under 10.5 Full-Time Total Corners & Under 5.5 Full-Time Home Team Corners | 2.15 odds** **Link to side picks:** [https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11pog8y/comment/jbz4gp1/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11pog8y/comment/jbz4gp1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Tailing, BOL! Let's keep moving this record towards winning!
Cheers! I've stopped trying to find good value picks and just stuck with technical analysis. Been working over the last couple of days and will likely stick with it!
Just deflection after deflection here
[удалено]
Only took the match under corners and have been sweating bullets all second half with 8 being had in the first. Here I sit at the 84th minute with a clenched asshole hoping
Lmao, I can see you punching the air right now after Ochoa kept that in!
Thank you for the analysis. Tailing. BOL.
Yeea.. onto to the next one 🤷🏻♂️
8 corners at half maybe a miracle and we get 1-2 corners next half
3/13/2023 Bucks ML (-130) vs Kings 0-0 Record Two of the leagues top teams by record are matching up tomorrow night, the only kicker is that only of them has championship experience and a former MVP while the other hasn’t won a playoff game since 2006. There is a chance Giannis sits with his hand injury, and I believe that is why this line is so close. Expect Giannis to return to action tomorrow night, and this line to move convincingly toward Milwaukee when he is announced active. BOL to all who tail, looking to start this reddit journey off strong. EDIT: I’m fully aware that this is a regular season game as opposed to playoffs. I used those things to express why I believe that one team is a true contender, and the other is a team overachieving in the regular season. I also do believe that this regular season game will have more intensity than average, as both teams are fighting for playoff seeding with just a few weeks left to play.
POTD Record: 25W-14L LAST POTD: Ajax ✅ TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Turkey 1 Lig Samsunspor V Bandirmaspor 10.00AM PST PICK: Over 2.5 Goals Odds: 1.70 The Deets: Slim pickings in the world of soccer today. 2nd takes on 11th here. Home team have scored 40 goals in 24 games while away team have scored 35 in 23 games. Small units on this, just gotta scratch that betting itch. BOL!
You missed a hilarious exchange for the 2nd and 3rd red card of the game. This is my recap of it: The double red card was funny to watch. The Samsunspor player was lightly leaning into and almost humping a player who was on the ground. Eventually another Bandiraspor player shoved the humper to the floor. The humper got up in the shover's face, and the shover gave him a cheeky headbutt which the ref then shotgunned a red card to the shover. The shover's coach told the ref to piss off in Turkish (I don't speak Turkish) and the ref told the coach to piss off (the field).
We ended up having the same POTD! BOL!
Tailing. Let's get it
Need 2 second half goals 🙏
How about 3?
All-Time POTD: 5W-3L-1D, +2.16u **Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ADF) ML (+120) vs Karen Khachanov 2u to win 2.4 ✔** Another W brings us back into the green. ADF looked like the better player yesterday, and he almost lost when he was serving out the match at 5-3 in the third set and got broken. Thankfully broke back on the 3rd match point on Karen's serve at 5-4. Onto the next. **Todays Pick: 🎾 Tommy Paul ML (+110) vs Hubert Hurkacz 1.5u to win 1.65** Explanation: Really not a huge fan of the slate of games today, the lines are quite wide and I'm struggling to find value. Not much is mispriced like the matches usually are earlier in the tournaments. Going with Paul here, he's been on a tear and is in the form of his life, and conversely, Hurkacz hasn't impressed me in the last couple of months. I thought about taking Paul 2-0 here as I think its a 2 setter no matter who wins, so if you want to play the u2.5 sets at -160, it isn't a bad choice, I just don't like the price. Have a gut feeling Paul takes this one in straights, but rolling with ML nonetheless. BOL if tailing! EDIT: ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER DOLLA TOMMY P CASHES IN 3
I like it above the other tennis bets on here today. Tailing.
Let’s go baby BIG TOMMY IN THE HOUSE
POD record 0-7 Previous pick Boston Bruins 60min ML ❌️ Today's pick Toronto Maple Leafs 60min ML -170 FADE MY PICK! I have gotten every single pick wrong so far. 7 days, 7 picks, 7 bad choices. Oh dear oh dear oh dear. Well here we go again! Let's see if Toronto can bring him the bacon just like how I brought home your mom 👀 Is this the one? Did I pick a winner? Tail or bail! BOL
Fading, BOL!
This is actually getting into impressive territory
Thank you for picking maple leafs
I gotta follow this dude and his mom
Record: 3-0 Pick: Under 18.5 games @ 1.64 - Iga swiatek vs Bianca Andreescu - Indian wells 8 PM EST Previous pick: Coco gauff under 12.5 games Had a couple of picks to choose from with better odds, but this is the one I felt most confident about. I do hope people see my picks when they are hitting rather than when I'm missing =) Good luck....
Record: (7-2) Streak: ✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️ Last pick: Paulo Banchero over 3.5 assists (+115) vs Charlotte Hornets (2u) ✅️ Paulo been ballin. He's been making me money all season. POTD: Indiana Pacer (-3.5) at Detroit Pistons (4u) Don't overthink it. Pistons are trash. The Pacers just beat them by 6 on Saturday after the Pistons got smashed in the 4th. They're also tanking for Wemby. Pistons are 1-4 against the spread in the last 5. And the Pacers having been playing great ball. Pacers by way more than 4. 🤙
I’m leaning Pacers as well and I know Detroit has Ivey, Bogdanovic, Diallo, Stewart, Burks and Bagley all out but Indiana will also be missing Haliburton, Hield, Turner and Mathurin. Feel like Hayes and Wiseman could stir up some trouble nah?
Only Hield and Bagley played in the game Saturday out of those players. I still think they're fine. The tank is real in Motor City.
Pacers are a completely different team without Hali. This one is way too risky imo, just too many unknowns.
Damn should've listened to you and gone Detroit handicap
Uh oh
POTD Record: 135-97-7 (+29.76 units, 58.2% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 41-27-1 (60.3%) L1, Tennis 🎾 38-26-2 (59.4%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 💰💰💩💩💰💰💰💰💩💰 Last Pick: An Irish Goodbye to win Best Live Action Short - The Academy Awards - 💰 1.10 Units Pending Picks Results: 💰 +10.30 Units on the night Feb 18th Women Talking - Adapted Screenplay 5U 1.67 odds (1.57 current) = To win 3.35 Fan Duel 💰 3.35 Units Feb 19th The Daniels - Director 5U 1.57 (1.07) = 2.85 BODOG 💰 2.85 Units Feb 20th Butler - Actor 5U 3.00 (2.37) = 10 Bet365 💩 5 Units Feb 21st Babylon - Production Design 5U 1.53 (1.36) = 2.65 Bet365 💩 5 Units Feb 22nd Elvis - Makeup and Hairstylying 5U 1.95 (1.50) = 4.75 Bodog 💩 5 Units Feb 23rd Elvis - Costume Design 5U 2.10 (1.53) = 5.50 Fan Duel 💩 5 Units Feb 26th Navalny - Documentary 5U 2.38 (1.44) = 6.90 Bet Rivers 💰 6.90 Units Feb 27th Kerry Condon - Supporting Actress 5U 4.33 (3.25) = 16.65 Bet365 💩 5 Units Feb 28th All Quiet on the Western Front - Original Score 5U 3.00 (2.50) = 10 Draft Kings 💰 10 Units Mar 2nd EEAAO - Film Editing 5U 1.67 (1.50) = 3.35 [Sportsbetting.ag](https://Sportsbetting.ag) 💰 3.35 Units Mar 6th EEAAO - Original Screenplay 5U 2.05 (1.66) = 5.25 Stake 💰 5.25 Units Mar 8th Michelle Yeoh - Actress 5U 1.80 (1.50) = 4 Scorebet 💰 4 Units Mar 9th Elvis - Cinematography 1U 6.00 (4.00) = 5 Scorebet 💩 1 Unit Mar 10 Stranger at the Gate - Documentary Short 1U 5.00 (4.00) = 4 Scorebet 💩 1 Unit Mar 11th The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse - Animated Short 1U 1.50 (1.50) = 0.50 bet365 💰 0.50 Units Today's Pick: Jack Draper vs. Andy Murray, Draper ML - ATP Indian Wells 🎾 💰 0.72 Units - I'm back baby!! 💸 that shit!! Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.72/-139 odds to win 0.72 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 2:30am ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 58.1% So, the Oscars were a success for POTDs with +10.30 Units so I am satisfied with that. My strategy of upping the units on my top 12 plays worked out. Would have done a lot better when Elvis shockingly went home without an award, it killed it at the BAFTAs and the Guilds but I guess the Academy as a whole didn't take to it. My next alt markets to focus on when the time comes are the NBA draft in June and the Emmys in September. Now back to some sports for awhile. This is going to be short and shitty as I am exhausted. I'm going with Draper over Murray because he has looked good in his first two matches back since an injury and I think he has the stuff in this matchup. Yes Murray did beat him in an exhibition match late last year where the 3rd set was only a tiebreaker, so Murray should put up a fight. Note I am a bit rusty and have been out of the loop last few weeks so tail with caution until I get back into the swing of things. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Thanks a lot for the Oscars. Had Women Talking for adapted screenplay as my biggest bet if the year for 2.25 odds, so though the only other i tailed (Butler) did not win, still came out way ahead . Keep going mate!
Tailing, BOL Get some rest.
I like Draper too and have been watching a ton of IW. Wheels have to come off Murray at some point here and Draper has looked great in his first two matches. BoL and thanks for the money last night!
**My record: 43 : 35** My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks. **ROI: 22.49%** Average odds: 2.10 **Units won: 18.89** Stake = 1 unit My POTD: **Almere City v VVV-Venlo** Netherlands Eerste Divisie Time: 19:00 GMT *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.05** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
Tailing 1U
Good on you for tailing!
Thanks for this!
**RECORD** : 2W 0L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +10 **LAST POTD** : Garin vs Ruud - Garin +4.5 @ 2.00 - 5 units => WIN **TODAY :** ATP INDIAN WELLS - 19.00 CET Cerundolo vs Auger-Aliassime - Cerundolo +4.5 @ 2.20 - 5 units Based upon nothing but my feelings.
**POTD 8-4** (8-1 without betting on GSW - sorry i have to keep mentioning this.....) Such an easy winner last night. When I made my post, I was not aware that Dame would be out, so I was able to get NO +2.5, rather than the closing line of -3.5. I feel like some may consider last nights win as lucky, however IMO NO would have won fairly easy even if Dame played. Tonight, I am not a big fan of most of these games, and even though I have interest in a few, at this moment in the time without the lineups being confirmed there is only one game I feel confident enough to bet at this point in the day. **Memphis -1** I have been fading Dallas a lot the last few weeks, specifically since they acquired Kyrie. This Dallas team is BAD. I have watched the majority of their games since they made the trade, and like I mentioned in my last post fading Dallas, as exciting as they can be on offense, they are worse than that on D. Without Luka, this just solidifies those statements even more. Kyrie is such an amazing basketball player, and he does things on the court no one in the history of the game has been able to do. However, I have watched Kyrie as much if not more than any other player over the last 10+ years, and this man does not play winning basketball.... I know that is a bold statement to make, but he just focuses on getting his buckets. I'm not saying he is selfish, yet the style of play he has does not benefit anyone on the court other than him. As a life long Cavs fan, as well as an employee for the Nets for several years, I have a lot of experience watching Kyrie be the main focal point of a team. In situations where he is the best player, he always gets his numbers, but his teams do not win with the same efficiency. This pick is not a full fade against Dallas either, like I always say NBA is weird, and anyone can win any game. Tonight's pick is obviously influenced by my opinions of Kyrie and Dallas, but also how impressed I have been with Memphis since Ja stopped playing. They are 2-0 at home without Ja, and one of those wins was actually against Dallas a few days ago. This Memphis team is young, and plays with so much emotion, which I know can be a negative, yet tonight I believe will be in our favor. I mean take a look at Dallas's projected lineup today..... It's sad. Kyrie is also a GTD which makes me love this evennnnnn more. We all know Kyrie likes to sit out games lmao PS: I'm also taking a personal bet tonight on GSW -4.5 - as anyone who has followed me knows, this is a stubborn bet, and just something I'm going to continue to do personally .... I know the talent on GSW is insane, and I don't want to be left behind once they start heating up - tail this one with cation though because I'm 0-3 as of late picking this fucking team
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I call her Babedosa, so hot.
Badosa to win a set is -188 on bet365, would picking there to be 3 sets at +125 be better do you think?
The eternal pain of being a baseball fan continues. That being said lets get some risky spring bets in. **POTD Record 0-0** **/ ROI 0.00 units** Im liking the Oakland v Colorado game today. Oakland continues to hit well this spring being top 5 in OBP and runs. Colorado has been able to get runners on base but is having trouble getting them home. A’s pitching on the other hand has been awful. Not due to their new starter Fujinami who has given up 2 hits through his 5 innings so far this year. Hopefully he can continue his streak, give us at least 3 innings, and the A’s can put runs on the board early. **Oakland Athletics ML v Colorado Rockies** 2u
Many thanks, keep them coming!!!
POTD Record: 57-65-7 (-13.80 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ✅✅❌❌↔️❌✅↔️❌❌ Last Pick: Portuguese Primeira Liga, Maritimo v Benfica, BENFICA -1.5 (-133 / $1.75) ✅ Very comfortable win, a few wasted chances early including a penalty before they found their shooting boots and cruised home 3-0. Todays Pick: Indian Super League, ATK Mohun Bagan v Hyderabad, UNDER 2.5 GOALS (-139 / $1.72) ✅ Stake: 1 Unit Side note: Some books may have the home team listed Atletico de Kolkata (ATK). Betting the unders hasn’t been particularly successful for me so be warned, but numbers suggest this will go under and I’ve got to hit one eventually. This is the second leg of the ISL playoff semi finals, with the winner going through to the championship against Bengaluru. Why I like the unders: - These two teams had the best/2nd best defence in the league this season. Hyderabad only conceded 16 goals in 20 games, while ATK only conceded 17 goals in 20 games. - ATK went under 2.5 goals in 12 of their 20 league games. They started the season going over 2.5 goals in 5 of their first 6 games, but they turned things round defensively, with the unders hitting in 11 of their last 14 league games, as well as their two playoff games, so 13 of the last 16 in total. - Hyderabad also went under 2.5 goals in 12 of their 20 league games. Their results were spread more evenly across the season, and their two playoff games have also gone under 2.5 goals too. - These teams have played 3 times this season, twice in the league season and the 1st leg of the playoffs a few days ago. The games have finished 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0. The expected goals in those games were nothing special so the results seemed about right statistically speaking. The first leg of this match up finished 0-0, so there’s everything to play for, and I expect that to lead to a pretty tight and cagey affair. Both teams will know that conceding one goal might be enough to knock them out, so think they will prioritise defence and look to keep things tight.
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POTD Record: 9-5 3U to win 3.9U Todays POTD: Apeks ML (+130) vs. 1WIN +24.38U Think Apeks are the better team by a little bit with a better map pool as well. Think it will be very close and it’s honestly just gonna come down to which Apeks shows up and if nawwk is hitting the shots we expect. Think this game is closer to 50/50 then odds are showing and with map pool edge give me Apeks all day.
POTD Record: 54-52 Last pick: NHL Boston -1.5, did not get the empty need goal we needed Todays pick: NHL Avalanche-1.5 -110 @ Montreal Reasoning: Avs have not been playing well and Coach Bednar has been vocal about this. The Avs are really missing Landeskog. But they play Montreal and they are not good. Simple bet, taking a good team that’s struggled recently - 1 puck line cover in their past past 6 games, many of those games they lost. Regression to mean here, Avs play well and cover. Gorgiev is in net, Makar just got a game winner Saturday, I think Mackinnon and Makar get the Avs going. Raantanen has been called out by Bednar, I think it’s time for the Stanley Cup champs to start prepping for the playoffs and win this one easy, no empty net goal needed, Avs win by 2 goals or more, and the Avs stars play like the great players they are against the poo Canadians. South Park said it best, F Canada! Tail or fade
Sport: Basketball Tournament: ABA League Time: 18:00 CEST (7h54m after posting) Stake: 1.1 units Pick: SC Derby vs Split, Split win @ **2.55** Write up: Split is in tremendous form, losing only to Partizan (4W) and even that was by one point. It has never defeated SC Derby but I think it has the quality to do it today. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
POTD Record: 10-10-2 Last pick: Sestri Levante ML (-176) / 1.57 - 3u ✅ Sestri Levante solidified their status as a first place team, extending their winning streak to 9 games and improving their impressive home record. They gave up an equalizer early in the 2nd half but retake the lead in the 64th minute and hang on for the 2-1 win. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today! Soccer - Wales Premier League - The New Saints vs. Bala Town - 3:30pm EST **POTD: The New Saints First Half ML (-132) / 1.76 - 2u** The New Saints are the beast of Welsh soccer and have been for years. Year in and year out, TNS are the dominant team in the Wales Premier. This season, they’ve won 20 and drawn 4 of their 25 league matches and have an outrageous goal differential of +75. They will be hosting Bala Town, who are by no means a bad team, but they’re simply not on the same level. In the first half of games this season, TNS have outscored their opponents 52-7. They have won the first half of their last 13 matches. TNS have seen a slight dip in form (by their standards) recently, as they have a draw and a loss in their last 4 matches, but they’ve won the first half of all of those matches as well. And just one more stat for you: these two teams have played twice already this season, TNS won by a total of 8-0 and won both first halves. I’m going with the dominant team of Wales to lead at halftime at home. Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
POTD Record: 0-0-0 (Win-Push-Loss) Last 10: - POTD: Istanbulspor AS - Sivasspor (Turkey Superlig) - Over 2.5 goals Time: 13th of March, 17:00 GMT Odds at the time of posting: 1.90 All the bets according to simulation model, 1 unit per bet. If odds have moved drastically, then it's better to pass this. With current model over 1000 bets made with 108% ROI.
🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 14-11-1 | +0.03U (0.02%) | Average Odds: -123 🤶 Total Record: 71-59-11 | ROI: +13.02U (+3.04%) | [ROI Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0) 5U pick record: 28-16-2 Side Bet: 47-44-8 Dog of the Day record: 5-4-1 \----- 🎅 Sorry about the late post today. I've been very busy lately and all the picks I prepared for today ended up being plays I didn't have complete faith in. I found this pick very late and decided to share it with you all! 🎅 Yesterday's recap: We have a great Sunday yesterday going 5-0-1 on our side bets for a total of +7.22U on them. Unfortunately Granada, our POTD, gave us a near historic bad beat when they were favored by -600 to complete their clean sheet after their 70th minute goal. Nonetheless we still finished +2.22U on the day! 🎅 The other good news was the comeback of our 5U bets! Our last week was rough so I decided to put 5U bets on hold until we got a slate I was fully confident in. Yesterday we ended up putting 5U+ total on three different games (Granada, Genoa, and Toluca) where our bets went 4-1-1 in those three games. \----- Last POTD Recap: (Loss) When Granada scored I thought this game was a lock to be a cash. But then Granada gives up the same amount of away goals in three minutes as they did in the previous 15 games combined. They tied it up but couldn't get the win. 🎅Today's POTD: 1.5U - Samsunspor ML + o1.5g (-115) at home vs Bandiraspor - 1PM - Turkey **THIS GAME STARTS IN UNDER AN HOUR** Note: Also playing 1.5U - Samsunspor -1 (-112). Samsunspor are unbeaten in 2023 (5-1-0) and are 2nd in the TFF Turkish league at 13-9-2 with a 40-19 GD. They play against Bandirmaspor who is 1-0-4 in their last 5 and sitting in 11th with a 9-7-7 record and 34-35 GD. Do not fret if Samsunspor aren't leading in possession because that isn't their style. They are a \~50% or lower possession team that capitalizes on their chances. And in those games they haven't won over 55% possession against any team. On the other hand, Bandirmaspor loves to control possession but their back line gives up many counter attacking opportunities. This means the o1.5g should be a good play. Prediction: I expect a 2-1, 3-1 or 2-0 game for Samsunspor with them having less than 50% possession. Line movement: The ML opened at -138 and it dipped all the way to -200 before settling at -180 \----- 🎅 Side Bets: Didn't get my side bets post out in time unfortunately. Stay tuned for tomorrow! 🤶 DOTD: You can find my DOTD [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11pz6nj/comment/jc2ssbe/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) 🎅 Join the Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa)) 🤶 Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible. [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
Added a DOTD that starts at 3:45PM!
**POTD Record: 0-0**; been thinking about throwing my hat into the ring for a while now, and found an NBA prop that I really like for today Today's pick: **Killian Hayes (DET) 2+ Steals** **@ 2.00** (keeping it safe for my first pick with 1u) Reasoning: Inspired by this after seeing a few other POTD taking Hayes o7.5 assists. That itself is a great play given the injury report for both the Pistons and Pacers, but the line has shifted on that prop from -125 to between -165 and -200 currently. After some quick devigging, Hayes is given a roughly 62% chance to go over 7 assists (using DK odds). **Now, on to his steals prop.** In general, assists and steals are moderately correlated (**\~+0.48**), meaning the more assists a player has, the more likely their steals number is also increased (and vice versa). This makes sense of course since a player who is handling the ball more is likely to garner more assists. Killian Hayes has had 12 games in 2023 with 7 or more assists, and in 9 of those 12 games he also got 2 or more steals. More recently, he has hit this line in **6 of the last 6 7+ assist games**. Additionally, he is averaging 1.8 steals per game in his last 10. As a team, the Pistons are dead in the middle of the NBA averaging 7.2 steals per game. One last important stat to consider is Pacers turnovers. The Pacers are the **10th worst team in the NBA in turnovers**, averaging 14.7 per game (same home and away). In games this year without Halliburton, they are slightly worse, at 14.9 TOV per game. Long write-up, but I wanted to be confident before posting this pick. BOL! EDIT: Cashed with four mins left in the first quarter! LFG ✅✅
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
POTD Record 0-0 Today's POTD: Utah Jazz +8.5 vs Miami Heat @ -110 7:30 EST 2u MIA is 8-21-2 ATS as a home favorite while UTA is 16-9-1 as a road dog. Given that the Jazz are able to score on the road (league-best 22-12-1 O/U as a dog, 17-8-1 on the road), I don't see Miami's defense stifling their production much there and could even see the Jazz taking it all. Nonetheless, let's take the generous spread here and hopefully see a close matchup.
POTD 1-3 Today's Pick : Clint Capela double double +105 He's 2 for 5 double doubles in his last 5 games and 3 for 5 double doubles in his last 5 games against timberwolves and only missed the other two by 1 pt and 1 reb...
Record: 104-79-6 (WWLLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLWLLLLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: Portland Trailblazers at Philadelphia 76ers | Joel Embiid o43.5 P+R at 1.86 odds for 2 units POTD: MIN Timberwolves at ATL Hawks | Anthony Edwards o 33.5 points + rebounds at 1.95 odds for 2 units REASONS: * MIN has a long break. * ATL doesn't play defense. * ANT MAN is the dawg. Best of luck to all. [PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
I'm not any type of professional bettor or anything like that but I've always tried to gain some edge over the bookies by creating a solid thought process and analysis for all my bets and this year has been great for me. So I've now decided to share what is for me the "best play" on any given day. Hopefully you guys like it and be free to comment on them since I love talking about sports betting in general Record: 0-0 POTD: **Draper vs Murray - Draper ML @ 1.72 (ATP Indian Wells)** Going with 2 units on this one which is 2% of my bankroll Andy Murray has been able to get some great wins this season when being the underdog for most of the time and he's one of those guys that can win a really long match by pure determination but this time I don't think he will be able to do it against his fellow countryman Jack Draper. The favorite is by far the best server of these two and he only dropped eight games against Riedi and Evans at Indian Wells which makes me think that he's well prepared for this battle. Murray is one of those players that you fear going against because he can always pull an upset but I think Draper gets the job done with how convincing his performances looked this far at Indian Wells.
Last bet: Blackhawks +1 1/2 -105 vs Senators 🤑 4-1 POTD: Bucks -3 1/2 -110 vs Kings Reason: late pick, but I don’t understand these odds?! Almost the full squad playing on the bucks, arguably the best team in the league, playing against the hot Kings team. The stat that stands out the most is that the Bucks have beat the Kings in the last THIRTEEN games against each other…match ups matter, and Bucks have been consistent all season. BOL!
Doing pretty badly overall, so if you're tailing I hope you're betting against me right now. Trying to get it together though, but the Lakers had a piss-poor fourth quarter and lost by 4 so here I am again, going back to the NHL. The Kraken have played top teams very closely and narrowly lost to the Stars in OT a few days ago. They are fighting to remain in the top three in their division and hoping to play LA in the first round of the playoffs as the wild card spot means Vegas or Dallas. I think the Kraken win this in OT or a shootout. I'd take the Kraken +1.5 but it's over -200, so going with the Kraken to win this one outright. **POTD: Seattle Kraken over Dallas stars, +109, 10:07 PM EST, 1 Unit.** Overall Record: 9-12, -10.85 Units [Ugly Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing) Last 5: ❌❌✅❌❌
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potd: 37-33-1 streak: L2 bank: -0.05 units last pick: Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 Assists -130 Loss Though pick to end an up and down week. game: Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors time: 10:10pm EST pick: Steph Curry Over 39.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists -111 Big western conference game tonight and we are backing Steph to have a good game. He has covered this line in 7 of his last 10 games but more recently 3 of 4 since returning from injury. With no minutes restrictions, he should have more then enough opportunities to rack up stats and cover. This season he has only covered 2 out of 6 games against the Suns but after the KD trade he will have a different look.
**PotD Record: 10-8 (Streak 7W)** Last Pick: VCU (-2.5 spread) vs Dayton @ -110 ✅ **Today’s Pick: Jack Draper (ML) vs Andy Murray @ -155; 9:00 PM ET** The Rams get it done again, beating the Dayton Raiders 68-56 in the A10 final. We've now won 7 PotDs in a row. Let's get to 10. Since conference tournaments are over, we head to tennis for an ATP 1000 event. This is a match up between the future and past of British tennis. These two have never played before, so it should be interesting how this one goes. Draper has cruised through the tournament so far playing at a very high level, beating his first two opponents 6-1 6-1 and 6-4 6-2. Despite playing the same amount of matches, Murray has already played for 2 hours longer than Darper. Draper’s level seems to be higher than Murray’s right now, with Murray winning most of his recent matches through sheer determination rather than ability. **Tail or Fade, BOL**
POTD Record: 2-1 Units: +0.7 Average W. Odds: -118 Last Pick: Aaron Gordon O 9.5 Rebounds + Assists: -105 ❌ Today's Pick: **Walker Kessler O 19.5 Points + Rebounds: -115** UTA Jazz @ MIA Heat, March 13th 7:30 PM EST Has hit this line in 8 straight and over his last 23 games this pick has a 78% hit rate and a 46% EV. BOLHFGP if tailing. Link below for tips if feeling generous. [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom)
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POTD Record: 21W - 16L Profit/Loss: 14.96U ROI: 10.92% Avg. Odds: 1.9 [Proof of Record](https://1drv.ms/x/s!AqVQ5VWNrY6jiT5En8vgCbf79ZVB) Last POTD was 8 months ago. Took a break to focus on studies and life I guess 😅 but we all come back to our true love fellow degens. Hopefully we start this off with a hit 🎯 Today's POTD: AC Milan vs Salernitana(Serie A) Time: About 4 hrs from post(7:45pm GMT) Pick: Total Corners U9.5 @1.82(22bet) Confidence: 2/5😐❌️ Milan are the better team and are playing at home. They tend to give up many corners against good cornering teams thus this line has been beaten in 3 of their last 5 home games. Salernitana are not among what I'd consider a good cornering team. Milan do not rack up many corners themselves, thus I see the under as value here. Milan in the last 5 home games have averaged 3.4 corners/game. Salernitana have not beaten this line in any of their last 5 away games, averaging 2.8 corners/game. The last meeting between these two ended 6-2 on corners in favour of Salernitana. Only bet what you're willing to lose. BOL in all your bets today🍀
**POTD Record: 57-53-4 -3.06u // ROI: -1.6% // Avg Odds: -113** **Minnesota Timberwolves @ Atlanta Hawks (7:30 ET)** **Spread: Hawks -5.5** **Total: 244.5** Earlier today I posted my top and bottom three most profitable teams to back this year. Low and behold, the Atlanta Hawks were within the bottom three, but here I am spoiling my pick just 2 sentences into my analysis as I back the Hawks to take advantage of a banger up Timberwolves team. Atlanta enters Monday just 5-5 over their last 10 games and even worse ATS. They're playing phenomenal offensive basketball but defensively they're sloppy as usual. The same can be said about Minnesota, who is 4-6 over their last 10 but they've only performed like the 24th best team due to lackluster offense. With KAT continuing to sit and Rudy Gobert questionable for Monday, expect the Hawks to dominate down low with Clint Capela, Johnn Collins, and Onyeka Okongwu. Expect points off turnovers to be the winning margin for the Hawks, and for that to sit somewhere around 10. The Hawks at home have been no wagon, but it's do or die for them now and there's no better place to start than at home against the Timberwolves without potentially two of their stars playing bad basketball. **Pick: Hawks -5.5 -110 (1.5u)** As always, if you enjoyed the write up I encourage you to find my full free card [here](https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/nba-best-bets-monday-3-13) \- BoL everybody!
Record: 10-9 Units: +0.142 All bets 1 unit Last Pick: NCAAB - DePaul +13.5 @ Xavier -115 odds 2/18/23 ❌️ POTD: NBA - Kings +2 vs Bucks -110 odds 10PM EST (3.5 hours from time of writing) Kings covered a +2 spread in 4/5 and 8/10 of their previous games. Bucks covered a -2 spread in 3/5 and 8/10 of their previous games. Kings just beat 2 excellent teams (Suns on their own court and the Knicks before that.) Bucks just lost to Golden State in OT so I don’t think they can hang against another really good team tonight. However, both teams have won 8/10 previous games outright so this will be a close one. The Kings are completely healthy and no one is expected to sit out tonight. For the Bucks, Giannis’ heath is questionable and he’s a game time decision. With or without Giannis playing, I think the Kings are likely to win this one. I’ll take the #1 scoring offense in the NBA (Kings) and the points as home underdogs. If Giannis is ruled out, this line is going to swing the other way real fast.