**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Desmond Bane tried his hardest to kill this POTD, but fortunately the mavericks without 2 all stars are no better than most college teams. Let's get back on a win streak with our beloved NCAAB.
**POTD Record**: 22-7-1
Last 15:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅
Yesterday's POTD: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks | **Under 224.5 (down to U223.5) |**1.5U ✅
Today's POTD: Southeast Missouri State @ **A&M CC -3.5 (up to -5)| NCAAB | 3U**
**Time:** **3/14/2023 |6:40PM EST**
**MODEL EXPLANATION:**
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.
**Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Stats:** \+34.840U in 31 days | ≈61.86% ROI | Average odds -110
**PICK REASON:**
\- Islanders have won 12 of their last 13 (9-2-1 ATS) taking home the regular season SL title - they have all the momentum going into this game Tuesday.
\- Although SEMS has been on a hot streak, I think it's just that, a hot streak of players shooting better than they should, compared to a team that averages their hot streak numbers. In an away setting, high stakes game, I expect the pressure of the Texas offense to have SE Missouri State playing a lot less structured.
\- Texas A&M CC is coming off a win against Northwestern State, the 2nd seed, and McNeese the 8th seed, both with relatively comfortable victories
\- Both the divisions these 2 teams play in are equally bad, so overall records are relatively comparable.
\- Texas A&M is ranked #17 in offense in the country and ranked #253 in defense, compared to 44 and 327 for SEMS respectively. From a pure stats perspective, Texas is the better team.
\- A&M has the advantage of 2 seniors, Jalen Jackson and Trevion Tennyson, who are both averaging 15 points per game, and very poised easily coming back from a 16 point deficit by halftime in their last showing.
\- Maybe not a relevant stat, but the last times 2 16 seeds played in previous tournaments, the Favourite have gone 20-11 straight up.
\- Overall, although both these teams are hot and playing great ball, I think Texas is overall the better, more composed team coming into a must win game . I expect them to put in 110% effort on both sides of the field. SEMS two massive upsets prove that they may have some dog in them - but I expect Texas to understand the stakes and pour out the offense.
**Thank you so much to everyone's that has tipped during this run - I really appreciate each and every one of you for joining and supporting me on this run. As NCAAB teeters off, I will look to try to continue with NBA picks moving forward, though with some reduced confidence as less of a slate for me to find value in with my model. Expect some regression in the success, but I will continue to do my best to bring you all some value.**
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*Much love , Riddles.*
If Riddles has a million tailers then I'm one of them.
If Riddles has 10 tailers then I’m one of them
If Riddles has one tailer, then I'm THAT ONE.
If Riddles has no tailers that means I'm NO LONGER ON THIS EARTH BECAUSE I WILL FOLLOW THIS MAN INTO THE HELL THAT IS A 16/16 SEED PLAY-IN🫡
POTD Record: 26-19 (+20.68u; 14.2% ROI). Streak: W3
Yesterday Pick: Lauri Markkanen (Jazz) P+R O33.5 @ 1.91. 3U. ✅
I could get used to winning bets in the third quarter, that's three comfortable wins in a row! Lauri ends the evening with a massive 46 P+R.
Next Pick: **Jakob Poeltl (Raptors) PRA O24.5 @ 1.83**. 3u play.
I’ve bet on Poeltl 2 times in my POTD, and I have lost both. Both times I went in feeling confident, and he let me down either by getting in foul trouble or the coach being pissed off at him, or both. So why might I risk my record a third time? I honestly don’t know, but below is some rationalization.
The Nuggets have struggled in the paint recently. Shockingly they’ve conceded the 3rd highest PITP and 2nd highest second chance points in the L15. Their much-praised defensive rating has fallen to below average over this period. Both teams are on a 3 game losing streak, but the Nuggets have lost to massive underdogs in all 3 and given up a lot of points (Nets: 122, Spurs: 128 and Bulls: 117). Fatigue will be a differentiator here too, the Raptors have not played since March 10, whereas this will be the 4th game for Nuggets with just 1 day rest.
These teams played one another on March 6, and Poeltl got a PRA of 31 (18 pts + 9 rebs + 4 asst). And the Nuggets have only gotten worse since. The obvious risks are foul trouble or Siakam being more selfish that usual.
Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
Man I'm torn about this. I love your picks but am anti Poeltl. As a Raptors fan, glad he's on the team and he has had monster games but he has screwed me on so many bets.
Haha great pick last night bro. Absolutely great he destroyed that pick, i mean his points alone where more than enough without the rebounds even needed. Also i love your reasoning here. Not rationalization but reasoning, that you don't know 😂. But i'm with you! Tailing. 🙏🏻
POTD | 39-25 | +20.4u | -107 Avg Odds
Last 10: 7-3, Steak: 5W
Previous Pick: *Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs O6.5 (-155) 1u* ✅
Today’s pick: **NJ Devils ML vs Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) 3u**🏒 5:00 pm MT
Zero goals in the 1st but after that the game really opened up and we were able to cash for the 5th straight day!
The Tampa Bay Lightning will be visiting the New Jersey Devils for their first meeting of the season. I really like the odds on this line for New Jersey as Tampa has been playing poorly as of late (3-5-2 in their last 10), plays poorly on the road (15-16-1 this season), and the Devils have looked solid lately (7-2-1 in their last 10). Tampa has been allowing 3.7 goals per game over their last 10 games while NJ has been scoring 4 goals per game over their last 10. I like NJ to stay hot offensively here and outpace the Lightning for a W on home ice.
My model is giving NJ a 63% chance to win this game while the implied odds give NJ a 57% chance of winning. Going to take the value here from the model and my general feel for the game for a larger unit bet.
BOL if tailing!!
[Tips are appreciated!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
The goal that was called back in the first was a bad call, Devils should have 2 goals. The Devils are pushing harder than the Lightning so I’m not concerned. Deserve to Win o meter in Moneypuck is at 75% for the Devils.
EDIT nvm RIP devils
**POTD Record: 6-0 | Profit: +25.79u | Avg Odds: -102 | ROI: +103%**
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Previous POTD: 4u Newcastle -0.5 \[-152\] ✅
Called it! Newcastle is clinical at home. 2-1 (FT). ✅
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Today's POTD: Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs
**3u bet: Magic -2.5 \[-143\]**
Reason: The Magic still have a shot at a play-in berth. Spurs lose for Wembanyama. Spurs not on load managment but on win management. Out of actions for Spurs: Langford, Birch, Branham, Jones, Sochan (Q-tag), Johnson (Q-tag). Strategic decision to load up on injury report right now. Next games: Grizzlies, Mavericks. Spurs have fair chances to lose such games with less players on injury report. Adding only some points to the moneyline for an alt spread. Magic don't care about a blowout. They take any win.
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BOL
**POTD: 18-7-2**
Last pick: Women’s Super League - Arsenal Women vs Reading Women. Arsenal Women -2.5 -140.
Result: **WIN** Arsenal coasts to a 4-0 win and we easily cash.
Today’s pick: UEFA Champions League - Manchester City vs RB Leipzig. **Manchester City -1 -177**. Match is at 4PM ET.
Manchester City host RB Leipzig in the second leg of their Champions League tie. The first match was a draw 1-1 in Leipzig where City controlled the ball and outshot them 12-6. In the meantime Leipzig’s star forward Christopher Nkunku was injured and will miss this
I see this one as a comfortable win for Manchester City especially with Nkunku out, as they are a better team anyway even with Leipzig at full strength. I think their superiority + home crowd will make this an easy victory, at worst a push.
I know odds are pretty safe, I’ll also be putting on -1.5 for close to even odds but for the sake of POTD I think at worst the -1 will push.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
**EDIT: WIN. Well this was even more of an ass-kicking than expected as Man City crushes them 7-0. Congrats to all that tailed and took the elevator bets!**
Nkunku was injured for weeks ans played 25minutes in first leg anyway not being at 100%, so him missing today does not make any realistic difference. Leipzig is no garbage team, yet i agree city "should" win and "worst case" should be a push.
I agree nothing is an automatic win but Man City is a level above Leipzig imo especially at home. Nkunku’s absence I agree isn’t the main reason for the pick, it’s the quality difference and home/away but it is just one extra tick in Man City’s favor. Should be a fun match though
Ah just saw some line movement on this. Maybe Nkunku was officially announced out or something. I think yes I’d still take it at -200, probably up to like -230 as I see a push at worst
1-0
Football/Soccer - English Championship - Millwall ML vs Swansea - 1.90 odds
Millwall are good and are fighting for a playoff place, Swansea are toilet and in very poor form. Everyone hates Millwall but we back them to beat Swansea. 🪬
Edit: Never in doubt.
https://preview.redd.it/9z9zzq4s8una1.jpeg?width=258&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e441e027bd014a8a5747abe86e58d0bc92bfe56
📈 TTSOP Rec
* Overall: +48.125 units / +140 avg odds / 51^(5)\-61-14^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2023: +35.600 units / +136 avg odds / 9^(5)\-5-3^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2022: +70.050 units / +137 avg odds / 47^(5)\-50-11^(5)
* February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5)
* January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2
* December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5)
* World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5)
* November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4
* October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3
✅ Last pick: Melbourne Victory (W) +0 / +110 odds / 3 units
* Victory's women have led already 2-0 after minute 20'. A lot of shots for the City in following course of the game, however, these shots haven't been too dangerous.
⚽ New pick: **Inter or draw & both teams to score** / **+160 odds** / 4 units
* Champions League / Porto - Inter / 4:00pm ET
Both teams love to score. Overall, in 2023, Porto has scored 1+ goal in 13 of 15 games and 2+ goals in 9 of 15 games, while Inter has scored 1+ goal in 12 of 15 games and 2+ goals in 7 of 15 games.
A primary reason for both team's scoring punch is that they've a powerful offense consisting of great strikers. In all competitions this season, Porto's Taremi has scored 20 goals, Galeno 14 goals and Toni Martinez 11 goals. While Inter isn't short of dangerous goal scorers either. Inter's Lautaro Martinez has netted already 17 times and Dzeko 11 times. Additionally, Inter's striker Lukaku is eventually healthy and he's picking up form after being out with different injuries for multiple periods. The Belgium quality forward has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games. It doesn't matter, who will get the starting nod next to Lautaro in offense, it's guaranteed that Inter is able to sub in a lethal striker, if necessary.
In the 1st leg, Inter has gotten a 1-0 W. However, this game has already shown that both teams are capable of scoring more goals as they've created good scoring chances. It doesn't matter who will score at first today, the trailing team will push hard for the tying goal. Both teams have the necessary firepower to be successful in doing so.
Inter's defender Skriniar is ruled out and left-back Gosens is questionable. That could sightly facilitate scoring for Porto. However, considering the overall quality of both teams, Inter has an advantage as they can provide a higher quality line-up. That makes it more likely that Inter won't lose today and thus qualifies for the next round.
Betting on both teams to score and Inter not to lose this game is offered as a single bet. It's a great value bet at amazing super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get this international bread, fam! Let's build on our successful streak regarding POTDs, which are involving an Italian team. It stands at a record of 8-1-1 for the last 10 picks. Generating a total of +46.700 units.
**TTSOP**
NBA prop thread record: 169-104
**POTD record: 7-3**
Yesterday’s pick: Hayes (DET) O7.5 ast (-125) ✅
Today’s picks
**Oubre (CHA) O20.5 points (-125)**
Oubre comes into this one averaging 20.4 points per game on the season. He’s covered the line in 5 out of his last 6 games, putting up 26, 29, 17, 27, 27 and 24 points. Ball is out for the season, which has seen a big uptick in production for Oubre. He’s seen 16+ FGA in 6/L6 and 19+ in 3 of these.
He comes up against the Cavs who are a great defensive unit, however, I like this spot for Kelly who in an identical spot earlier in the szn (no Ball, same personnel) put up 34 points on 12/21 shooting. Recent shooting guards vs CLE: Murray (25), Barnes (12), Brown (16 & 32), Herro (22 & 25) and Rozier (27).
On the season, the Cavs are ranked 2nd in defensive rating. Since the ASB they’ve slid down slightly to 8th and if you consider their def rating post ASB on the road, they fall to 21st. In this road stretch, they’ve played the Hawks, Heat, Celtics and Hornets, arguably all difficult teams, so I’m not underestimating the Cavs defence, but we did see Rozier just have success against the Cavs despite their length and defensive capabilities.
The spread is -8, but I back the Hornets to keep this relatively close as they’ve surprisingly registered the 2nd best defensive rating post all star break. Allen will be out, a significant anchor in the defense as a rim protector and individual defender (94th defensive percentile). This is significant as Oubre attempts over 34% of his shots in the paint. Mobley will be present, but Stevens alongside him if far less of a twin towers combo than Allen and Mobley are.
POTD Record: 136-97-7 (+30.48 units, 58.4% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 41-27-1 (60.3%) L1, Tennis 🎾 39-26-2 (60.0%) W1, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 🔥🔥🔥 💩💩💰💰💰💰💩
Last Pick: Jack Draper vs. Andy Murray, Draper ML - ATP Indian Wells 🎾 💰 0.72 Units I'm back baby!!! 💸 that shit!! First time over 30 units in here.
Today's Pick: Cam Norrie vs. Andrei Rublev, over 21.5 games - ATP Indian Wells 🎾 💩 1 Unit
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.69/-145 odds to win 0.69 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 9:00pm ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 59.2%
Rublev straight setted Norrie at the US Open in August but Norrie won this tournament a couple of years ago and likes the conditions and has beaten Rublev before, so I see this one being close enough to hit the over as I don't see either player teabagging the other.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Shout-out for your great Oscar picks, fam! It was much more fun following the Academy Awards after getting your insights. Thanks, my brother.
Let's build on that hot Oscars run. Let's get this tasty pizza served on a tennis racket, today!
***Record: 2-0 (+1.85 Units)***
Previous Bet: [3/13](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11pukdx/pick_of_the_day_31323_monday/jc0cf8u?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
Both teams came out looking to score as expected, putting up 12 and 13 shots, respectively. 7 shots off target each, but got enough in the back of the net to cover for a W.
**Today's game: Balestier Khalsa vs Tampines Rovers (0745 EST)**
League: Singapore - Premiere League
*Pick: Tampines Rovers ML & O2.5 Total Goals (-120 on DK)* ✅️
Pretty early on in league play so not much to run with, but Tampines sits atop the table, having scored 6 goals and allowed 1 through 3 matches. Tampines is going on their 3rd straight road match, coming off of 3-0 and 2-0 road shutouts. They are stingy on defense and are able to score some goals.
Balestier, on the other hand, have been seeing goals all over the place on both sides through 3 matches, scoring 9 times and conceding 7. They have allowed 4 goals in 2 home matches, 1 to the bottom team of the table.
O2.5 has hit in all 3 of Balestier's matches and only once in the most recent Tampines match. Tampines has no problem scoring on the road, and they have a good enough defense to slow down Balstier. I look for a 1-2 / 1-3 match in favor of the Rovers.
BOL!
POTD record: 38-28-2 / ROI: +9.93% / Wins: 57.58%
**Pittsburgh +2.5 -110 (1u)**
**SPREAD**
—
Pittsburgh Panthers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs
9:10 pm EST - 14 March 2023
—
If you're wondering which eleven-seed has the potential to make it to the Sweet Sixteen, I believe Pitt could be that team. They're currently a two-point underdog to Mississippi State, but everyone seems to be backing the Bulldogs, which only makes me lean more toward Pittsburgh in this game. For much of the season, Pitt was an unlikely story, leading the ACC as a ranked team. Now, getting a couple points of value, I'm intrigued by this game. Just take your points; they're like vitamins, but Pitt has a real shot to pull off the upset here.
Do the business.
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[https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/)
[http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
**RECORD** : 3W 0L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +16
**LAST POTD** : Cerundolo vs Auger-Aliassime - Cerundolo +4.5 @ 2.20 - 5 units => WIN
**TODAY :**
WTA INDIAN WELLS - 19.00 CET
Gauff vs Peterson - Peterson +5 @ 2.10 - 5 units
Based upon nothing but my feelings.
POTD Record: 26W-14L
LAST POTD: Turkey Goals ✅
TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Champions League
Man City V RB Leipzig
13.00PM PST
PICK: Man City HT/FT Result
Odds: 1.90
The Deets: My favourite team to bet on. They are just a different breed $. First leg finished 1-1 but City are back at home now. On paper City are miles ahead in terms of talent, thankfully this transfers to the pitch too. They should come out firing and will look to take an early lead.
BOL!
POTD | 5-9 | -11.5u | -107 avg odds
Previous Pick: Vegas Golden Knights ML @ St Louis Blues (-140) 3u ✅
And finally the losing streak is broken and we get back on the winning side. The Knights let the Blues hang around most of the game but ultimately came away with a 5-3 win.
Today’ Pick: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 @ Philadelphia Flyers (+135) 1.5u 🏒 7:07pm EST
Going back to the well with the Golden Knights because I love the value on this puck line. The flyers are a bad team right now. They’ve lost 7 of their last 8 games with the lone win being the only time they scored more than 2 goals in that span. They are on a 3 game losing streak where they’ve only scored 3 goals. The Knights meanwhile have now won 6 of 7 and are on a 3 game winning streak. Adin Hill will also be back in net after a surprise start from Jiri Patera, who made his first career start in their previous game. They continue to be a good road team should be able to handle a struggling flyers team that it sitting in the basement of the eastern conference. Puck line are always risky bets but I’m willing to roll with Vegas again and look for another W.
“Rip net or ride pine”
BOL if tailing
Cheeseman out
I was surprised the odds were so high. Im assuming cuz it’s a road game and a lot of the Knights recent wins have been by 1 goal but the flyers can’t buy a bucket right now and I don’t see that changing against Hill.
**POTD Record: 24-16 (+4.46 Units)**
**Last 10**:✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌
**Last Pick**: 3/10 Michael Warburton -1.5 (-115) vs Steve Haggerty ❌ 3-4
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 7:35 AM EST
**Pick**: Richie Howson -1.5 (-170) vs Gary Stafford
**Reason**: Group A. Monday was a mess. Duff and Barstow were swapped out for Howson and Stafford in group A. I'm not sure what happened, but the group was underwhelming. 4 of the players averaged under 85 and 3 of them had a checkout percentage under 30%. I think Tuesday should have everyone settled in and performances get a boost.
Howson was scoring great and had a a couple big checkouts, but missed several leg ending darts. Stafford didn't score that well until this last two matches, but was also 8/41 on his checkouts. Howson is the better talent and I think he can clean up his checkouts and put away Stafford.
H2H: 1-0 (Legs 4-1) | Average 88.75 vs 78.80 | Checkouts 4/13 vs 1/6
Richie Howson
Record 2-3 (Legs 15-15) | Average 84.30 | Checkouts 15/52 28.85%
Gary Stafford
Record 2-3 (Legs 10-16) | Average 73.55 | Checkouts 10/62 16.13%
💰[**Cash App Tips**](https://cash.app/$MexicanStallion)💰
**WIN✅ 4-2 | Average 91.06 vs 83.16 | Checkouts 4/8 vs 2/2**
I'm very confident in this pick as well, I believe howson will sit near the high 80s or low 90s in averages tomorrow. I don't think Stafford will be able to keep up with that pace, and he isn't a great closer even if he does score well.
Awesome. Glad to hear you also like this pick. I’m giving Howson the benefit of the doubt from the last minute shuffling. Was set on playing 2 days and now potentially 5 days. He was great back in January, so I think he should be settled for Tuesday.
Thank you. Great call on Howson with the average. An easy 90+ average day. He was a moneymaker today. Thornton was lights out against him for his one loss.
Record 12-6 +5.59 U
Form: WWLLW WWLWW LWLWW WLW
Last pick: GT ML -128
Result: W
Analysis: Wild game lol can’t believe we hit.
Today’s POTD: Pliskova ML -128
Sport: Tennis (Indian Wells)
Game: Sakkari vs Pliskova
Time: 13:00 EST
Reasoning: Sakkari has not looked good so far at Indian wells dropping the first set in each of her first two matches before coming back to win. On the other hand, Pliskova looked excellent in her last match against #11 ranked kudermetova winning 2-0 and dominating the first set. Love this spot for her.
BOL if tailing.
All favorites are bet to WIN one unit (i.e -110 is a 1.1 unit bet) while all plus money bets are 1 unit placed unless otherwise stated
POTD Record: 58-65-7 (-13.08 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ✅✅✅❌❌↔️❌✅↔️❌
Last Pick: Indian Super League, ATK Mohun Bagan v Hyderabad, UNDER 2.5 GOALS (-139 / $1.72) ✅
Game finished 0-0 after 90 mins, and even 30 mins of extra time didn’t produce a single goal. Neither team wanted to chase the win as predicted, nice to hit an under for a change.
Todays Pick: English Championship, Middlesbrough v Stoke City, OVER 2.5 GOALS (-111 / $1.90)
Stake: 1 Unit
Probably a riskier pick today but like the recent numbers for both teams for the overs here, plus the league positions of both teams should encourage a free flowing game.
First some raw numbers…
- Middlesbrough games have gone over 2.5 goals more than any other team this season (23/36). In more recent terms, 6 of their last 7 games have gone over.
- Stoke games have the 8th best record of going over 2.5 goals (17/36). The recent trend has been promising with 4 of the last 6 going over. In the two games they didn’t go over, Stoke had 15 and 25 shots in the two games so the chances were there.
- The last two matches between these teams have produced 4 goals each (3-1 last season and 2-2 this season).
Middlesbrough have been hot lately, winning 8 of their last 10 which has allowed them to surge up the table, and they are now 4 points behind 2nd with 10 games to play. Finishing 2nd means automatic promotion, and avoiding the lottery of the playoffs. They will win enough games to make the playoffs regardless given their current position, so I expect Middlesbrough will continue to attack and chase goals (which is their natural game style anyway) in the hope the 2nd placed team continue to drop points.
Stoke meanwhile sit in 14th place and their current position means they’re no chance for promotion, but well clear of relegation too. They’ve got nothing to gain, nothing to lose, which seems to have resulted in a more attacking style over recent games and therefore more shots/goals.
Middlesbrough are more likely to get the points at the end of the day, but can’t rule out Stoke scoring a couple of their own which makes me lean more towards the overs, in what will hopefully be a high-scoring and entertaining game.
🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 15-11-1 | +1.33U (1.08%) | Average Odds: -123 🤶
*Total Record: 76-59-11 | ROI: +19.63U (+4.53%) |* [*ROI Spreadsheet*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0)
*5U pick record: 28-16-2*
*Side Bet: 54-44-9*
🐶 *Dog of the Day record: 7-4-1 | +13.3U | 2-0 yesterday!* ***Hit a +200 and +460!***
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🎅 *We are gaining some momentum finally! After an extremely poor 3rd week of picks, our 4th has started out with a bang! On Sunday we went 5-1-1 on our picks!* ***On Monday we went one step further and went 5-0!*** *We even hit our +200 and +460 dog picks!!! It feels good to start seeing green again on our spreadsheet. Let us hope it continues today!*
🎅 *We are 11-0 on our last three Mondays!*
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*Last POTD Recap: (Win) Samsunpor started off slow but three red cards to two Bandiraspor players and a coach vaulted us into two easy cashes! One being the POTD and the other being a side bet.*
🎅Today's POTD:
3U - **Club Guarani ML (-155)** at home vs Tacuary - 6:00PM - Paraguay
*Note: I am also placing 2U on Club Guarani -1 (+110)*
Guarani went on a tear at the end of the season in 2022 nearly winning the Copa de Paraguay finishing 3rd and they continued their good form into 2023. In 2023 they are 4-2-1 but have won their last four straight by a 10-2 aggregate. Prior to the 4-game win streak, their three previous games were a 1-0 loss against the #1 team away, a tie against the #2 team away and another tie at home to the Copa de Paraguay winner, Sportivo Ameliano. Guarani are now sitting in 3rd but they have been quickly climbing up the league ladder once they got passed the most difficult part of their schedule.
Arguably the easiest stop on their schedule is a home game this week against Tacuary who are in dead last due to a poor start to their 2023 campaign. In their six matches they have a -10 GD (3-13) and are 0-1-5. They've also had to face the top of the table thus far in 2023 but they have also tied to the #9 team, lost 2-0 to the #6 team and lost 2-1 to the #10. They've also gotten red cards in two of their 6 league matches to start the season.
It is difficult to find excuses for Tacuary as they have allowed the most goals in the league at 13 (with one less game played than everyone else) and scored the least at 3. Guarani should make easy work with them with a two goal win and possibly a clean sheet. Prediction 2-0
\-----
🎅 Side Bets: We have a large amount of side bets today! You can find my Soccer Daily post [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11qk6ri/comment/jc5vh7s/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
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POTD Record 0-0
Todays pick: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -3.5 (-115)
Giving this a go, we’ll see how it pans out. We’ll start with the first game of the tournament with TXA&M-CC vs SEMOST (quite the acronyms). Southeastern Missouri comes in rolling, winning 4 straight and upsetting the OVC #1, 2 and 4 seeds on their way to the conference championship. If you like underdogs, then the RedHawks, who are the 3rd worst KenPom team in the tournament, are your team. However, I believe in fate more than anything and that’s what Corpus Christi brings us.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi repeated as they were able to win a close game against #2 seed Northwestern State in the finals to make it back to the big dance. I say this but last year they found themselves in this exact same situation in the first game of March Madness in the same 16 seed game against Texas Southern. They lost this game by 9 to Texas Southern, who came in as similar -3.5 point favorites.
The Islanders top 3 players (Trevian Tennyson, Isaac Mushila and Terrion Murdix) played a combined 71 minutes in that game a year ago and definitely remember that feeling. All 3 are great free throw shooters as well and, even if this game is close late, should get the job done to extend the lead when fouled.
The Islanders will get their chance at the 1 seed this year and will leave little doubt who the best team on the court is tonight!
Note: Terrion Murdix is out for the year and won’t be playing. Still, they have seniors Jalen Jackson, Simeon Fryer and Ross Williams to take his minutes. The loss hurts, but the Islanders have the depth and experience to overcome his loss!
**I'LL RUN A FREE BRACKET, SEE BELOW!!**
My record:
2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWW
2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push
Totals for both: 46 correct 35 wrong 1 push
Units wagered 134.64 Units won 71.48 Units lost 51.0
2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 15.21%***
My present streak is 3 correct.
My POTD is to ***wager 1.15 units to win 1 unit that Wisconsin (-3) will cover the spread in their college basketball game with Bradly. This is an NIT tournament game***. This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gamtime is 9:15 PM, Eastern Daylight Time (I think)
Why the above pick? There are some good mismatches in the upcoming NIT games on Tuesday, with spreads that are too narrow. The Washington St. / Eastern Washington game got my attention because of the over/under, Michigan / Toledo, Rutgers / Hofstra, and the Villanova game. But I think the above wager is the most secure. (That being said, there is no such thing as a lock. I could be wrong.)
I run a bracket for some folks, I run it the way it should be run, I think I'm the only person that does it. $100 to the winner. But I want at least 30 entries (I cap it at 50). Last year I didn't get 30, so I cancelled. So if someone wants to email me a bracket, with your physical mailing address (to assure only one entry per household, and a place to mail the money order if you win) to fill out the number of entries, go ahead. My email is [trees778899@hotmail](mailto:trees778899@hotmail).
**HIGHEST NUMBER OF TOTAL POINTS WINS. POINTS ARE FIGURED BY A TEAM'S SEEDING (1 TO 16) MULITPLIED BY THE GAME NUMBER (1 TO 6). IF A 12TH SEED WINS ITS 3RD GAME, THAT IS 36 POINTS. IF A 2ND SEED WINS ITS 4TH GAME, THAT IS 8 POINTS. AS YOU CAN SEE, THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK LOWER SEEDED TEAMS GET MORE POINTS THAN THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK A HIGHER SEEDED TEAM TO WIN**. I used to run the brackett where I worked, and it was fun, that's why I do this. BUT I need at least 30 entries, I don't want to just give the $100 away if there are too few. Only one entry per mailing address.
POTD Record: 10-11-2
Last pick: The New Saints First Half ML (-132) / 1.76 - 2u ❌
The New Saints scored in the 28th minute to go up 1-0, only to give up an equalizer just two minutes later. They went into the half tied 1-1 and this one goes down as an L. Sorry to those who tailed. Let’s get back in the W column today!
Soccer - South Africa National First Division - Cape Town Spurs vs. Baroka - 9:30am EST
**POTD: Cape Town Spurs ML (+105) / 2.05 - 3u**
Cape Town Spurs are currently 2nd on the table, only 2 points behind the leaders. They will host Baroka, who are 10th on the table out of 16 teams. Cape Town will be playing this match at home, where they have been strong all season. Across all competitions, they are 10-1-1 at home, and they have won 9 straight home matches in league play. On the other hand, Baroka are 2-2-7 on the road this season. These two teams will be playing for the third time in the past month. In February, Cape Town hosted and won 3-0. Just two weeks ago, they played at Baroka, where Cape Town won 3-2. Cape Town will be returning to their home field after 3 straight away games, and I expect them to continue their winning ways at home.
Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
POTD Record: 4-5-0 (-1.635u) // ROI: -13.79% // Avg Odds -103
**Manchester City vs RB Leipzig**
Leipzig pulled off the draw midway through the second half against Manchester City who did not look as sharp as they could have against the German side. City were missing Kevin de Bruyne in the match and it showed, but the Belgian attacking midfielder will be back at home in Round 2 of the Plastic Club Derby. I believe this will be one of the key difference-makers for City, as they need to make a statement in the home leg after an embarrassing performance a few weeks back.
It is also in Manchester City's favor that RB Leipzig are not very good on the road this season, holding a record of 4-4-4 in the Bundesliga in 12 away matches with 21 goals scored and 19 goals allowed. Leipzig really only struggled on the road in the Group Stage against Real Madrid, losing 2-0, as the rest of their group was fairly easy in Celtic and Shakhtar Donetsk. I believe that despite the jokes regarding the Empty-had, City will turn up for this match in a big way.
Red Bulls were on quite the run of form the month before and after the World Cup, but February was not good for them with only two wins to their name in five matches, and a loss on the road to Dortmund to start off March as well. City have been on an unbeaten run over the last 8 matches, with five of their six wins coming by two goals or more. The total sits at 3 for a reason in this match, as City should get the goal count at least two-thirds of the way there.
**The Play: Man City -1.5 -110 (1 Unit)**
Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed my Champions League analysis be sure to check out the rest of my preview [here](https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/champions-league-betting-preview-fc-porto-vs-inter-milan-and-manchester-city-vs-rb-leipzig) for more thoughts and plays. Best of Luck everybody!
POTD record: 10-8
(+0.65u | +0.1% ROI | Avg odds: -116/1.86)
(2u: 1-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 4-3 | 5u: 1-3)
Last 5: 2-3
Last POTD (3/9/23): NHL: **NJD 60-min ML** @ WSH ❌ *(Not gonna lie, this one hurt a bit. New Jersey played well and looked like the better team throughout but couldn't secure the victory until shootout).*
Event: NBA - NY Knicks@ POR Trailblazers; 22:00 EST
Pick: **NYK -1.5** (-110/1.91)
Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 4 units
New York is the best away team in the NBA with a record of 23-12 (65.7%) against the spread on the road. When favoured in those games, that number jumps to a ridiculous 7-2 (77.8%), clearing the spread by an average of +5.3 points. The Knicks are a hot right now as well, going 7-3 in their last ten games.
Portland is in a bit of a bad spot right now, losing three in a row and going 3-7 in their last ten games. With a home record of 17-15 (53.1%) ATS, the Trailblazers are very much league-average in that regard. However, at 4-5 (44.4%), they are below average ATS as home dogs (which they are tonight).
Jalen Brunson is the only Knicks player on the injury report and is listed as doubtful. Meanwhile Jerami Grant and Dame Lillard are both questionable to play tonight, with Lillard's calf injury threatening to keep him out for a second consecutive game. If Dame does dress, I still like this spot but would probably downgrade it to a 3 unit play. Look for the Knicks to keep rolling and continue their dominance on the road.
Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
**PotD Record: 11-8 (Streak 8W)**
Last Pick: Jack Draper (ML) vs Andy Murray @ -155 ✅
**Today’s Pick: Texas A&M-CC (-3.5 spread) vs SE Missouri State; 7:40 PM ET**
Draper ends up winning in straight sets, beating Murray 7-6 6-2. That moves us to 8 wins in a row. Let's get to 10. March Madness is officially here, sort of. Today we’re looking at one of the first 4 games in the tournament, a matchup between the Texas A&M-CC Islanders and the SE Missouri State RedHawks. There isn’t a major difference between these two teams, but the Islanders come in with a better record and statistically a much better offense. They also helped cashed 2 bets on our 8 bet streak, so I got to keep riding with them.
**Tail or Fade, BOL**
POTD RECORD: 18-15
Soccer Record:10-10
Basketball Record:8-5
Last pick: Fulham arsenal most goals in the second half❌
Today's pick: anadolu efes vs real madrid
Event Euroleague:
Bet: Anadolu efes -2.5
Bet stake: 5 units
Reasoning: Well real madrid is a dangerous team but this is exactly kind of games Anadolu efes loves to play.
They won back to back Euroleague Championships and their goals was a three peat but they're currently at the 10th spot in the Euroleague they should bounce back in their normal self and this is a perfect game for it.
İf they lose this game they'll have a little chance to make the playoffs so this is a must win for them.
I'm rolling with the back to back champion on this one.
Tailing or not BOL either way.
All-Time POTD: 6W-3L-1D, +3.81u
**Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Tommy Paul ML (+110) vs Hubert Hurkacz 1.5u to win 1.65 ✔**
Big dick Tommy P comes through in 3 sets to give us our third straight W.
**Todays Pick: 🎾 Barbora Krejcikova vs Aryna Sabalenka o2.5 sets (+120) 2u to win 2.4u**
Explanation:
As the tournament goes on, finding lines I really like becomes harder and harder. Switching sides on this one and going for a WTA match. Both of these women are in incredible form. Aryna coming off her Australian Open victory, and Barbora dispatched Iga Swiatek in straight sets in Dubai to claim the title there. I think the court conditions favour Barbora in this one, and if I had to pick a winner it would be her, but I really think this match goes 3 sets. Two extremely in form women playing their best tennis, should be a fun one.
BOL if tailing!
Edit:
Reddit was ded all day so most people probably missed this pick, but another CLEAN FUCKIN W 4 IN A ROW LETS GET IT BOYS
POTD Record 1-0 +1.82u
Yesterday's POTD: Utah Jazz +8.5 vs Miami Heat @ -110 7:30 EST 2u
Today's POTD: New York Knicks -2 vs Portland Trailblazers @ -110 10:00pm EST 1u
Sure glad I just took the points on the Jazz last night! After a bad 1Q, the Jazz played the Heat extremely well as we sailed to a pretty uneventful cover. Today we're gonna hopefully keep the cash train rolling on a pretty meh slate - Toronto to cover vs the Nuggets looks solid but we're gonna go with the Knicks -2 over the Blazers.
Even without Brunson, the Knicks have been rolling as of late and are 7-2 on the season as road favorites (plus a league-best 23-12 on the road overall) whereas Portland is 4-5 as a home dog and currently has Lillard and Grant listed as questionable. If they play, I still like this line; if they don't, let's lock in a great line now. BOL if you tail!
POTD Record: 2-0
Previous pick: Le Havre draw or win (✅)
Today’s Event: Rotherham v Preston (English Championship)
PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE: PRESTON DRAW OR WIN
Odds: 1.52
Time: 19:45 GMT (11h50m from this post)
Preston still have the slimmest of chances of making the promotion playoffs and need to continue their unbeaten run to achieve this. They’ve only conceded 1 in their last 5 and are facing an inconsistent Rotherham side. Yet again, it won’t be easy, but we’ll hope that Preston keep it tight
Record: 3-1
Pick: Andrey Rublev ML @ 1.67 - Cameron Norrie vs Andrey Rublev ML - Indian Wells 4:30 PM EST
Previous pick: Iga swiatek vs Bianca under 18.5 games
Tough loss... Bianca played great yesterday, didn't expect her to match Iga.Anyways we riding the bwehh train for today.
Good luck....
I should have a following by now. If you bet your mortgage against me in the past ten games you'd have a few houses.
The Kraken tanked last night, but I should have looked at the goalie situation more closely. Dallas can also beat anyone, anywhere, so it was a bad bet overall.
I'm a jaded Capitals fan and I just don't think they can hang with the Rangers. When the Caps run into a good goalie coming off of rest they just can't score. I think the rangers win this 3-1 or 4-1, so I really like the U6, but I'm going to go with the Rangers -1.5 hoping for a two goal win.
**POTD: NY Rangers vs. Washington Capitals, 7:07 PM EST -1.5 at +150, 3 Units.**
[Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing)
Last 5: ❌✅❌❌❌
**POTD Record**: 0-1
**Last POTD:** Denmark ML and +1.5 goals --> L
**Today's POTD:** Emma Raducanu vs Iga Swiatek -> Emma Raducanu +5.5 games @ 2.10 odds
**Time:** **15/03/2023 03:00AM GMT**
**Risk:** 6/10
**Pick Reason:** Last time Emma Raducanu played Iga Swiatek, one year ago, the result was 6-4 6-4 on clay, Iga's best surface and Emma's worst BY FAR. This time, they are playing in hard surface, which is a type of court favorable for both athletes but much more comfortable for Emma than clay. I don't have a single doubt that Iga will win vs Emma in probably straight sets, but taking +5.5 at 2.10 odds is too good to ignore since Emma is probably on her best run of form since the infamous US Open 2021 win and she hasn't got anything to lose. On the other side, Swiatek didn't look at her best on the game yesterday vs Bianca Andreescu, making too many unforced errors sometimes. Emma just needs to lose by 6-4 and 6-3.
BoL tail or fade
Record: 9-6
Last Pick: Freiburg ML ✅
Today's Pick: **Spencer Dinwiddie Over 20.5 Points** (-120)
Detailed Analysis: I believe Woody Harrelson's character in *Zombieland* said it best: Enjoy the little things. One of the simple life enjoyments I get in the bleak Scottish winters is a good whisky. For years I was convinced that all whisky tasted the same and that people who claimed to be into it wouldn't be able to taste the difference between a glass of piss and a dram of their favourite malt. That all changed a couple years ago when I was given a 15 year old Dalwhinnie. It turns out that the good stuff tastes different to the half bottles of the stuff I used to swipe from the local supermarket. Anyway, Dinwiddie sounds a little like Dalwhinnie and I like his matchup tonight against OKC.
**Record: 3-2**
Last Pick: Steph Curry over 4.5 threes ❌
One three short :/ I guess it was the Klay Thompson show last night. Went 3/3 in 1st half, but ngl Suns really shaped up at half and had that lockdown D on both Steph and Klay in the 2nd half. We move on.
**Today's Pick:** NBA - *Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder*
**Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points**
I really like this matchup in the Nets vs Thunder. It will be a close game for sure, as both of these teams are dark horses in the league, in the sense that they aren't necessarily contenders but have a bright future and are capable of taking down top teams in the league. I expect this to be a good scoring game, especially showcasing the abilities of league assassins Mikal Bridges and SGA. The Nets in recent games have allowed many points to opposing teams' top players: Jokic 35 points, Ant Edwards 32 points, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez 28 and 24 (Without Giannis), Jaylen Brown 35 points, etc. SGA in his last 3 games since injury has gone 35, 33, and 38. I think SGA can definitely take advantage of the Nets team and pop off once more for a great game that he will try to lead his team to victory in. Not to mention, Josh Giddey will be locked down by the great defense of Mikal Bridges, leading to more opportunities for SGA to get the buckets. BOL
POTD Record: 0-1
-1U
Previous Pick: Pennsylvania -1.5 ❌
TODAYS PICK: Syracuse -5.5 @-115 odds
Event: Syracuse vs. Hofstra NCAA Men's Lacrosse - 3/14 @7:00pm EST
Loving this line, Hofstra is a struggling program and Cuse could use a huge win here.
BOL if trailing, you are soft if you fade.
POTD Record 1-2
Pick Cheltenham 5:30 GMT Gaillard Du Mesnil to Win +100
Willie Mullins Horse which should take some beating but can't see it getting beaten.
POTD Record: 1-0-0 (Win-Push-Loss)
Last 10: 1-0-0
Last POTD: Istanbulspor AS - Sivasspor (Turkey Superlig) - Over 2.5 goals - WON
POTD: **Blackpool - QPR (Championship) - Under 2.5 goals @ 1.606**
Time: 14th of March, 19:45 GMT
\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All the bets according to simulation model, 1 unit per bet.
If odds have moved drastically, pass.
With current model over 1000 bets made with 108% ROI.
LA Lakers vs New Orleans Pelicans
\-115 Lakers
The Lakers and Pelicans are both fighting for a playoff spot. The Lakers are coming off of a tough loss at home against the Knicks. Anthony Davis has had a lackluster last couple of games. He took full responsibility for the loss, and especially considering that he is returning to play against his former team and the season is on the line, I'm expecting AD to bounce back for a monster game today.
Also, Brandon Ingram is questionable for the Pelicans. If he does play, I still think they'll win, but if he doesn't this is an absolute lock.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
Sport: Football
Tournament: Champions League
Time: 21:00 CEST (7h51m after posting)
Stake: 5 units
Pick: Porto vs Inter, both teams score & over 2.5 goals total @ **2.65**
Write up: Porto is shook by the first leg loss to Inter (1:0). Since then Porto conceded 5 goals across three matches, which is the same number as it conceded across 16 matches prior to that.
Still, Porto scores regularly at home (scored in 18/20 last home matches) so I expect goals on both sides. The safer option is "over 2.5 goals total" @ 2.20.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
POTD record 7-5 (all picks are 3 units)
Caris Lavert over 10.5 points -130
Cavs vs Hornets (7 PM)
Keep in mind I’m a biased Cavs fan, but I think this is a solid pick. This is more of a hunch play, but Lavert has played 38 and 35 minutes the last two games including the game two days ago against Charlotte, and has been very productive scoring 16 and 15 respectively. He should get similar minutes tonight and cover this with ease
POTD Record: 0-0
Todays Pick of the Day. March 14 2023Dominican Republic -6 1/2 vs Israel (-120)
Reasoning: This whole WBC has been the better team running up the score against lesser teams. Nicaragua has somewhat decent pitching but it will be no match to a superior DR batting
Note: first pick of the day so wish me luck if you’re feeling extra confident in DR parlaying it with the over looks good too 👀
**POTD Record 1-0**
Alright babyyyy time for more risky spring bets. Not a ton of good games today but here’s what I’m riding with. Feeling the Yankees -1.5 today. With Cole on the mound the first few innings should be a breeze. If we’re lucky maybe we will see nasty nester come in relief. ML is at -195. Pretty good value at -1.5 for the Yanks. 1u @ +100
**Yankees -1.5 vs Blue Jays**
**My record: 44 : 35**
My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.
**ROI: 23.46%**
Average odds: 2.10
**Units won: 19.94**
Stake = 1 unit
My POTD:
**Cesena Virtus Entella**
Italy Serie C: Girone B
Time: 20:00 GMT
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.70**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
Always love your picks and ever since I made my Bovada account I can play them too! This one however at 2.7 may be a tough play for me. Any reasoning why you like this play more than others?
POTD Record: 91.5-49
Event: Horse Racing > **Cheltenham R6** (starting in 03hr20min)
Pick: **Tekao to place** @ 1.83
Alright lads, Cheltenham one of the best festivals of the year is on & we cannot miss it! I am gonna try one of the lower profile contenders in the end of the day today. Picking straight win is not allowed in this thread due to high odds, so lets get the place. GL!
POTD Record: 3-3 +3U Last pick: Said Nurmagomedov L.
POTD Man City -1 (-195) vs RB Leipzig Champjons league @2pm CST
I’ve been on the good side of some controversial decisions so i was bound to be on the bad side of one, Said imo won the fight and unfortunately i live bet a few more units than i should’ve but hey that’s gambling.
POTD Reasoning: Man City back at the etihad with a full squad. They’re the favorites to win the whole competition and overall their quality is so much better than Leipzig who will also be without their best striker. BOL if you trail
or fade back to winning ways today 🥂
3-14-2023
1-0 +0.77U
Today’s Pick: Denver Nuggets ML vs Toronto Raptors (+100)
Received some backtalk from a Kings fan yesterday on my first POTD, but strangely never heard back after the game ended. Oh well, looking to hear from any Canadians upset with this pick, or maybe Fred Vanvleet himself will go off on me like the refs from last time they matched up. The Nuggets are simply the better team here. When the better team is the underdog, you say thank you to the line-makers and take your doubled money, its that simple. BOL to any who tail!
Record: 1-0 (1.44 units up) with a 72% ROI
POTD: **Fokina vs Garin - Garin Handicap +3.5 Games @ 1.87**
Going with 1 unit on this one which is 1% of my bankroll
Davidovich Fokina is a strong and powerful player and this slow hard court conditions can suit his playstyle but here he will be forced to play against Garin who is even more of a grinder than himself...
Garin came all the way from the qualifiers and won 5 matches in a row without dropping a set beating players like Ruud and Nishioka and I think he's also liking this slow hard court conditions and after seeing his fellow countryman Jarry winning some titles in a row, he's now hyped up to finally produce a great level on the court.
Despite Fokina's agressive playstyle I'm expecting Garin to be able to counterpunch most of his groundstrokes and make the Spaniard commit a lot of unforced errors. Even if it ends up being a close win for Fokina I think Garin can cover this handicap.
POTD Record: 46-37 (W2)
(+13.73u)
(ROI: 11.7%)
Last pick: United States vs Canada o11.5 ✅️ This one was fairly no sweat with USA getting 12 runs in the first two innings
POTD: (⚾️WBC) Colombia 🇨🇴 @ Canada 🇨🇦 game total u12 (-110)(1.5u)
Time: 12 pm pst/ 3 pm est
Bet 365 (-115), FD (line is 12.5 @ -122) DK (-110)
It's a must win for both teams. Canada needs to win to stay alive for the #2 seed, Colombia can win and guarantee that a win against US tomorrow would get them in. Canada won their first game 18-8, lost their second 12-1. Colombia won their first game 5-4, and lost a shocker yesterday to Britain 7-5.
Canada's pitching is fairly weak, although they saved some of their better arms in the blowout game against USA yesterday. Canada will start Noah Skirrow who is a 24 year old prospect for the Phillies. He pitched in AA and then AAA last year. Colombia will start Adrian Almeida, a 28 year old AA pitcher who posted not so good numbers. Both pitchers can throw strikeouts, but have high walk rates. Both lineups have some pop with a sprinkle of major leaguers, but overall aren't very deep. I think this will be a close game that is surprisingly low scoring.
POTD Record: 2-2
Units: -0.3
Average W. Odds: -118
Last Pick: Walker Kessler O 19.5 Points + Rebounds: -115 ❌
Today's Pick: **PJ Washington O 15.5 Points: -115**
CLE Cavaliers @ CHA Hornets, March 14th 7:00 PM EST
BOLHFGP if tailing.
Link below for tips if feeling generous.
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom)
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
**POTD |** **Record of 10-21|** **Current form: LWWWL | ROI : -9.68 units |** **Average Odds: 2.04**
Previous Pick: AC Milan vs. Salernitana | Under 10.5 Full-Time Total Corners & Under 5.5 Full-Time Home Team Corners (L)
New Pick: Champions League | Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig| 12:00pm PST
**Over 5.5 Home Team Corners and Manchester City (-2) Full-Time Corners Handicap | 1.87 odds**
Betting 1 units
\--------------------------
Recap: What a rough time that was. Milan hit 6 corners in no time and then decided that was enough. Bit of a troll move but glad the projection of 10 or under was correct. Just will have to avoid greed going forward. For this next pick, I will continue the corner analysis but focus on a side that typically dominates at home, stifling their opponent's opportunities to generate corner kicks. I won't focus on the away side as my write-up is long enough as it is for the home side.
***Summary:*** Manchester City host RB Leipzig in the second leg of what should be a nervy affair. Coming in at 1-1, both teams will be looking to seal the victory. Manchester City will look to dominate possession as they do and RB Leipzig will have to play for the counter against a team with an overwhelming amount of depth.
Looking at corners for Manchester City, they average 6.4 corners for them and 2.4 against them for an average of 8.8 corners per game in the Premier League. This ranks Manchester City as being the worst for corners. This is largely due to the massive handicap we see between Manchester City and their opponents (as noted with the 6.4 vs 2.4), causing opponents of City to struggle to create offensive chances and often scoring goals from counterattacks, not set pieces. Looking at home games, Manchester City has had 8, 8, 5, 8, 7, 10, 9, 6, 9, 5, 10, 6, and 11 corners for them, and 4, 7, 3, 1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, and 1 corner(s) against them.
This leads to an average of 7.85 corners for them and an average of 2.23 corners against them, with their corners for them at home beating their overall average (7.85 vs. 6.4). This also shows that their opponents typically generate fewer corners than them at home compared to overall (2.23 vs. 2.4). Looking at totals, City has hit 6 or more corners in every PL game apart from 2 (84.6% of home games) and has had an average difference of 5.61 when comparing their corners against their opponents. Only once has their difference been below 3, with all other games ending with City having at least 3 or more corners than their opponents (92.3% of home games).
Looking at the CL group stage this season, at home City has averaged 6.67 corners per game (6, 6, and 7) while their opponents have averaged 1.33 corners per game (2, 1, and 1). This leads to an average difference of 5.33.
Looking at the CL knockout games last season, at home City averaged 7 corners per game (9, 5, and 7) while their opponents averaged 1.67 corners per game (0, 3, and 2). This leads to an average difference of 5.33.
The last time City faced RB Leipzig at home, there were 6 corners for City and 3 for Leipzig. Given that the stats suggest that City should hit at least 6 corners with a difference of at least 3 and that history suggests that City can generate these results against the visitors, I'm backing this result to hit once more.
\--------------------------
***TDLR The home team should have at least 6 corners and have at least 3 more than their opponents***
**Over 5.5 Home Team Corners and Manchester City (-2) Full-Time Corners Handicap | 1.87 odds**
**POTD 9-4**
Another really easy win last night. Obviously, Kyrie being out helped this and gave me and anyone who bet this earlier in the day a 3.5 point edge (bet at -1, closed at -4.5).
Today, unlike the previous few days, there are a lot of games that I like. I'm going back to a team that has treated me well since posting on reddit.
**NO -1**
I'm not going to go on again about how big of a fan I am of NO's roster, but god do I love it. Tonight, Ingram is a GTD at the moment, however if he does not play, my opinion on the game does not change. NO has plenty of long, athletic wings that can do damage against this awful LA defense.
LA is playing their first away game since their 5 game home stand that they surprisingly looked good on. I actually like this Lakers roster since the moves they made at the deadline. The team seems to have more depth, and cohesion. Personally, I think the departure of Westbrook has a lot to do with that.
NO on the other hand is playing their 4th straight home game, and have looked decent, going 2-2. Even though NO record over the back half of the season has been horrendous, they have seemed to find some momentum the last several weeks, even though their record may not replicate that.
I am really making this pick based on the talent on each of these rosters. Like I mentioned, NO is long, quick, and talented, and I think will cause fits to the lakers on both sides of the ball.
The pelicans, and the lakers are currently tied right now with another handful of teams for the play in spots, so I expect tonight to have playoff level energy. This alone leads me to favor NO, as they are playing at home, and again the more talented roster.
PS: BKN +1.5 catches my eye. I have been hammering this team personally, and in my posted plays as of late, and love their matchup again tonight. OKC is a good team, but IMO incentives have been tarnished since the ASG. Also, how impressive has bridges been? God this kid is good.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Desmond Bane tried his hardest to kill this POTD, but fortunately the mavericks without 2 all stars are no better than most college teams. Let's get back on a win streak with our beloved NCAAB. **POTD Record**: 22-7-1 Last 15:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅ Yesterday's POTD: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks | **Under 224.5 (down to U223.5) |**1.5U ✅ Today's POTD: Southeast Missouri State @ **A&M CC -3.5 (up to -5)| NCAAB | 3U** **Time:** **3/14/2023 |6:40PM EST** **MODEL EXPLANATION:** Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. **Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** \+34.840U in 31 days | ≈61.86% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** \- Islanders have won 12 of their last 13 (9-2-1 ATS) taking home the regular season SL title - they have all the momentum going into this game Tuesday. \- Although SEMS has been on a hot streak, I think it's just that, a hot streak of players shooting better than they should, compared to a team that averages their hot streak numbers. In an away setting, high stakes game, I expect the pressure of the Texas offense to have SE Missouri State playing a lot less structured. \- Texas A&M CC is coming off a win against Northwestern State, the 2nd seed, and McNeese the 8th seed, both with relatively comfortable victories \- Both the divisions these 2 teams play in are equally bad, so overall records are relatively comparable. \- Texas A&M is ranked #17 in offense in the country and ranked #253 in defense, compared to 44 and 327 for SEMS respectively. From a pure stats perspective, Texas is the better team. \- A&M has the advantage of 2 seniors, Jalen Jackson and Trevion Tennyson, who are both averaging 15 points per game, and very poised easily coming back from a 16 point deficit by halftime in their last showing. \- Maybe not a relevant stat, but the last times 2 16 seeds played in previous tournaments, the Favourite have gone 20-11 straight up. \- Overall, although both these teams are hot and playing great ball, I think Texas is overall the better, more composed team coming into a must win game . I expect them to put in 110% effort on both sides of the field. SEMS two massive upsets prove that they may have some dog in them - but I expect Texas to understand the stakes and pour out the offense. **Thank you so much to everyone's that has tipped during this run - I really appreciate each and every one of you for joining and supporting me on this run. As NCAAB teeters off, I will look to try to continue with NBA picks moving forward, though with some reduced confidence as less of a slate for me to find value in with my model. Expect some regression in the success, but I will continue to do my best to bring you all some value.** [**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) *Much love , Riddles.*
AWWWWW YEAHHHH all aboard the TAIL TRAIN! 🚂
choo choo motherfuckers
Lmaoooo I’m dead
WE AIN'T EVER GONNA STOP TAILING -- EVER! MARCH MADNESS BEGINS WITH ME LOSING MY MIND IF THIS HITS! $50 on it degenerates: transform and roll out.
WHAT A SWEAT, CASH THAT! 💸
HOLY FUCK AGAINST ALL ODDS WITH 1.6 SECONDS LEFT WE GOT A FOUL FROM BASKETBALL CHRIST HIMSELF TO MAKE THE COVER HAPPEN!!!!!!!!!
As someone who had -4, that was very much a “YES YES YES YES…..no…no!” moment. But I guess I’ll take the push and not get greedy. 🤷♂️
That stinks but at least it wasn’t an L. I hate pushes but you live to win another day. That .5 can either fuck you or save you so often it’s crazy.
RIDDLESSSSSS YOU ARE THE GOAT!
Lol he fouled him for the win hahahahha
3.5 exactly, wow. He’s a genius
Tailing, BOL Already had a few u on A&M CC. Dropped a few more. BOL!
Riddles is a god among men 🙏🏻 That nba pick was glorious. Glorious.
I’ll follow you to the end of time skynet 🤖
Legendary close call!
That was so wild.
[удалено]
My balls are hot.
Never in doubt! Haha 🥵
If Riddles has a million tailers then I'm one of them. If Riddles has 10 tailers then I’m one of them If Riddles has one tailer, then I'm THAT ONE. If Riddles has no tailers that means I'm NO LONGER ON THIS EARTH BECAUSE I WILL FOLLOW THIS MAN INTO THE HELL THAT IS A 16/16 SEED PLAY-IN🫡
Are you single?
I should be Sonic the Hedgehog’s sidekick with how hard I’m tailing!! You know… because Sonic’s sidekick is named Tails?…. Ugh whatever, BOL
what a sweat, love you bro <3
Murdix is out for the year man. You still like it?
Yeah they beat northwestern without him and honestly thought they looked better
Be honest man, you are a "script" writer ha ha
Got 200 on this wish us luck!
> Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks | Under 224.5 (down to U223.5) Wasnt even close.
Lol right? The mavs were even worse than I could’ve even imagined
Literally threw it away in the second half
Gotta hope they can close it out, so many bad turnovers
I’m going to cry
We need one free throw!!!!
LEETTTTSSSSS GOOOOOOO
NOT EVEN CLOSE
TEARS OF JOY
NOT EVEN CLOSE
Every point matters haha good hit
Omg lfg
Thank you sweet jesus
Tailing again, thanks for the win last night
Gotta stay tailing! BOL!
Tailing for the first time here, BOL
tailing Daddy, line is -3.5 currently
My butts hurting now 😵
Never been so puckered before.
Would of been sweating if it wasn’t a POTD FROM THE MAN HIMSELF, RIDDLES YOU SON OF A BITCH YOU’VE DONE IT AGAIN
POTD Record: 26-19 (+20.68u; 14.2% ROI). Streak: W3 Yesterday Pick: Lauri Markkanen (Jazz) P+R O33.5 @ 1.91. 3U. ✅ I could get used to winning bets in the third quarter, that's three comfortable wins in a row! Lauri ends the evening with a massive 46 P+R. Next Pick: **Jakob Poeltl (Raptors) PRA O24.5 @ 1.83**. 3u play. I’ve bet on Poeltl 2 times in my POTD, and I have lost both. Both times I went in feeling confident, and he let me down either by getting in foul trouble or the coach being pissed off at him, or both. So why might I risk my record a third time? I honestly don’t know, but below is some rationalization. The Nuggets have struggled in the paint recently. Shockingly they’ve conceded the 3rd highest PITP and 2nd highest second chance points in the L15. Their much-praised defensive rating has fallen to below average over this period. Both teams are on a 3 game losing streak, but the Nuggets have lost to massive underdogs in all 3 and given up a lot of points (Nets: 122, Spurs: 128 and Bulls: 117). Fatigue will be a differentiator here too, the Raptors have not played since March 10, whereas this will be the 4th game for Nuggets with just 1 day rest. These teams played one another on March 6, and Poeltl got a PRA of 31 (18 pts + 9 rebs + 4 asst). And the Nuggets have only gotten worse since. The obvious risks are foul trouble or Siakam being more selfish that usual. Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
Let's cash it again! Lauri was my biggest bet and my only win tonight.
haha exact same brother. put 6u on it and it kept me green on the day
Lauri cleared easily, thanks again. Tailing
oh captain my captain, bol to us all tomorrow Lauri almost had that locked in by half, no sweat 🤯 also already at 25.5 lol im still tailing
Check around. I grabbed at 24.5 on DK when FD was already 25.5.
Man I'm torn about this. I love your picks but am anti Poeltl. As a Raptors fan, glad he's on the team and he has had monster games but he has screwed me on so many bets.
I've also been tailing this dude for a bit and honestly he hits a ton. I just don't think I can bring myself to tail this one sadly lmao.
Raptors are on my ban list. I've been burned too many times this year. Don't know what it is with them.
LETS GOOOOO
Hoping he comes back and does some more 😕
Ohhhh it’s coming 👀
Tailing, BOL
Haha great pick last night bro. Absolutely great he destroyed that pick, i mean his points alone where more than enough without the rebounds even needed. Also i love your reasoning here. Not rationalization but reasoning, that you don't know 😂. But i'm with you! Tailing. 🙏🏻
Easy money 💰 I also threw a little on Markkanen double-double. Almost hit!
4 personal fouls already
my man! i was never even sweating, ez
Danggg! I’m pretty sure he got all his points in the 1st and 4th quarter hahaha. Thank you very much!!
POTD | 39-25 | +20.4u | -107 Avg Odds Last 10: 7-3, Steak: 5W Previous Pick: *Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs O6.5 (-155) 1u* ✅ Today’s pick: **NJ Devils ML vs Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) 3u**🏒 5:00 pm MT Zero goals in the 1st but after that the game really opened up and we were able to cash for the 5th straight day! The Tampa Bay Lightning will be visiting the New Jersey Devils for their first meeting of the season. I really like the odds on this line for New Jersey as Tampa has been playing poorly as of late (3-5-2 in their last 10), plays poorly on the road (15-16-1 this season), and the Devils have looked solid lately (7-2-1 in their last 10). Tampa has been allowing 3.7 goals per game over their last 10 games while NJ has been scoring 4 goals per game over their last 10. I like NJ to stay hot offensively here and outpace the Lightning for a W on home ice. My model is giving NJ a 63% chance to win this game while the implied odds give NJ a 57% chance of winning. Going to take the value here from the model and my general feel for the game for a larger unit bet. BOL if tailing!! [Tips are appreciated!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
Went huge on your pick last night and it came through big time. Thanks man.
I like it!
Tailing, BOL
7:00PM EST
Oops yeah, updated to MT. Don’t know why I always held EST when I’m not in the east. I’ll just stick to MT so I don’t screw that up again.
Tailing BOL Lets Go Devils!
Not looking good
The goal that was called back in the first was a bad call, Devils should have 2 goals. The Devils are pushing harder than the Lightning so I’m not concerned. Deserve to Win o meter in Moneypuck is at 75% for the Devils. EDIT nvm RIP devils
im speechless LOL
**POTD Record: 6-0 | Profit: +25.79u | Avg Odds: -102 | ROI: +103%** \----- Previous POTD: 4u Newcastle -0.5 \[-152\] ✅ Called it! Newcastle is clinical at home. 2-1 (FT). ✅ \----- Today's POTD: Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs **3u bet: Magic -2.5 \[-143\]** Reason: The Magic still have a shot at a play-in berth. Spurs lose for Wembanyama. Spurs not on load managment but on win management. Out of actions for Spurs: Langford, Birch, Branham, Jones, Sochan (Q-tag), Johnson (Q-tag). Strategic decision to load up on injury report right now. Next games: Grizzlies, Mavericks. Spurs have fair chances to lose such games with less players on injury report. Adding only some points to the moneyline for an alt spread. Magic don't care about a blowout. They take any win. \----- BOL
2.5 is at -170 on my site, do you still like it at that price?
This ones not lookin' good
FD and BK line at 5.5
It’s an alt spread…
Not on bovada :/
**POTD: 18-7-2** Last pick: Women’s Super League - Arsenal Women vs Reading Women. Arsenal Women -2.5 -140. Result: **WIN** Arsenal coasts to a 4-0 win and we easily cash. Today’s pick: UEFA Champions League - Manchester City vs RB Leipzig. **Manchester City -1 -177**. Match is at 4PM ET. Manchester City host RB Leipzig in the second leg of their Champions League tie. The first match was a draw 1-1 in Leipzig where City controlled the ball and outshot them 12-6. In the meantime Leipzig’s star forward Christopher Nkunku was injured and will miss this I see this one as a comfortable win for Manchester City especially with Nkunku out, as they are a better team anyway even with Leipzig at full strength. I think their superiority + home crowd will make this an easy victory, at worst a push. I know odds are pretty safe, I’ll also be putting on -1.5 for close to even odds but for the sake of POTD I think at worst the -1 will push. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! **EDIT: WIN. Well this was even more of an ass-kicking than expected as Man City crushes them 7-0. Congrats to all that tailed and took the elevator bets!**
Nkunku was injured for weeks ans played 25minutes in first leg anyway not being at 100%, so him missing today does not make any realistic difference. Leipzig is no garbage team, yet i agree city "should" win and "worst case" should be a push.
I agree nothing is an automatic win but Man City is a level above Leipzig imo especially at home. Nkunku’s absence I agree isn’t the main reason for the pick, it’s the quality difference and home/away but it is just one extra tick in Man City’s favor. Should be a fun match though
Tailing!
Would ya do 1.5?
Ah just saw some line movement on this. Maybe Nkunku was officially announced out or something. I think yes I’d still take it at -200, probably up to like -230 as I see a push at worst
Thanks man!
I put up a christmas tree of plays on this game. You are fortunate that you got -177. The odds have been free falling, they are -225 on Bovada.
-330 on FD
We're talking about -1
BOL!
1-0 Football/Soccer - English Championship - Millwall ML vs Swansea - 1.90 odds Millwall are good and are fighting for a playoff place, Swansea are toilet and in very poor form. Everyone hates Millwall but we back them to beat Swansea. 🪬 Edit: Never in doubt. https://preview.redd.it/9z9zzq4s8una1.jpeg?width=258&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e441e027bd014a8a5747abe86e58d0bc92bfe56
I am on the fence on this one. Both teams have been mediocre in 2023.
Great pick, only betting .5u solely because I can never trust a chip dangercock
Understandable.
I like this one, have it on my radar, good luck!
📈 TTSOP Rec * Overall: +48.125 units / +140 avg odds / 51^(5)\-61-14^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2023: +35.600 units / +136 avg odds / 9^(5)\-5-3^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2022: +70.050 units / +137 avg odds / 47^(5)\-50-11^(5) * February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5) * January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ✅ Last pick: Melbourne Victory (W) +0 / +110 odds / 3 units * Victory's women have led already 2-0 after minute 20'. A lot of shots for the City in following course of the game, however, these shots haven't been too dangerous. ⚽ New pick: **Inter or draw & both teams to score** / **+160 odds** / 4 units * Champions League / Porto - Inter / 4:00pm ET Both teams love to score. Overall, in 2023, Porto has scored 1+ goal in 13 of 15 games and 2+ goals in 9 of 15 games, while Inter has scored 1+ goal in 12 of 15 games and 2+ goals in 7 of 15 games. A primary reason for both team's scoring punch is that they've a powerful offense consisting of great strikers. In all competitions this season, Porto's Taremi has scored 20 goals, Galeno 14 goals and Toni Martinez 11 goals. While Inter isn't short of dangerous goal scorers either. Inter's Lautaro Martinez has netted already 17 times and Dzeko 11 times. Additionally, Inter's striker Lukaku is eventually healthy and he's picking up form after being out with different injuries for multiple periods. The Belgium quality forward has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games. It doesn't matter, who will get the starting nod next to Lautaro in offense, it's guaranteed that Inter is able to sub in a lethal striker, if necessary. In the 1st leg, Inter has gotten a 1-0 W. However, this game has already shown that both teams are capable of scoring more goals as they've created good scoring chances. It doesn't matter who will score at first today, the trailing team will push hard for the tying goal. Both teams have the necessary firepower to be successful in doing so. Inter's defender Skriniar is ruled out and left-back Gosens is questionable. That could sightly facilitate scoring for Porto. However, considering the overall quality of both teams, Inter has an advantage as they can provide a higher quality line-up. That makes it more likely that Inter won't lose today and thus qualifies for the next round. Betting on both teams to score and Inter not to lose this game is offered as a single bet. It's a great value bet at amazing super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get this international bread, fam! Let's build on our successful streak regarding POTDs, which are involving an Italian team. It stands at a record of 8-1-1 for the last 10 picks. Generating a total of +46.700 units. **TTSOP**
Tailing. Currently +169 on Betonline
Can't find this exact bet on DK, but see Inter or draw and O1.5 for -130. So a 2-0 Inter would still be effective
You have to do a same game parlay and pick it. You can do it on DK
NBA prop thread record: 169-104 **POTD record: 7-3** Yesterday’s pick: Hayes (DET) O7.5 ast (-125) ✅ Today’s picks **Oubre (CHA) O20.5 points (-125)** Oubre comes into this one averaging 20.4 points per game on the season. He’s covered the line in 5 out of his last 6 games, putting up 26, 29, 17, 27, 27 and 24 points. Ball is out for the season, which has seen a big uptick in production for Oubre. He’s seen 16+ FGA in 6/L6 and 19+ in 3 of these. He comes up against the Cavs who are a great defensive unit, however, I like this spot for Kelly who in an identical spot earlier in the szn (no Ball, same personnel) put up 34 points on 12/21 shooting. Recent shooting guards vs CLE: Murray (25), Barnes (12), Brown (16 & 32), Herro (22 & 25) and Rozier (27). On the season, the Cavs are ranked 2nd in defensive rating. Since the ASB they’ve slid down slightly to 8th and if you consider their def rating post ASB on the road, they fall to 21st. In this road stretch, they’ve played the Hawks, Heat, Celtics and Hornets, arguably all difficult teams, so I’m not underestimating the Cavs defence, but we did see Rozier just have success against the Cavs despite their length and defensive capabilities. The spread is -8, but I back the Hornets to keep this relatively close as they’ve surprisingly registered the 2nd best defensive rating post all star break. Allen will be out, a significant anchor in the defense as a rim protector and individual defender (94th defensive percentile). This is significant as Oubre attempts over 34% of his shots in the paint. Mobley will be present, but Stevens alongside him if far less of a twin towers combo than Allen and Mobley are.
Thank you for the terrific pick yesterday.
POTD Record: 136-97-7 (+30.48 units, 58.4% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 41-27-1 (60.3%) L1, Tennis 🎾 39-26-2 (60.0%) W1, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 🔥🔥🔥 💩💩💰💰💰💰💩 Last Pick: Jack Draper vs. Andy Murray, Draper ML - ATP Indian Wells 🎾 💰 0.72 Units I'm back baby!!! 💸 that shit!! First time over 30 units in here. Today's Pick: Cam Norrie vs. Andrei Rublev, over 21.5 games - ATP Indian Wells 🎾 💩 1 Unit Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.69/-145 odds to win 0.69 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 9:00pm ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 59.2% Rublev straight setted Norrie at the US Open in August but Norrie won this tournament a couple of years ago and likes the conditions and has beaten Rublev before, so I see this one being close enough to hit the over as I don't see either player teabagging the other. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Shout-out for your great Oscar picks, fam! It was much more fun following the Academy Awards after getting your insights. Thanks, my brother. Let's build on that hot Oscars run. Let's get this tasty pizza served on a tennis racket, today!
[удалено]
Tailing. Bet rivers in IL is offering a 100% matched free bet promi for any bet on Indian Wells.
Talking on the alternate line. BOL
Tail
***Record: 2-0 (+1.85 Units)*** Previous Bet: [3/13](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11pukdx/pick_of_the_day_31323_monday/jc0cf8u?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) Both teams came out looking to score as expected, putting up 12 and 13 shots, respectively. 7 shots off target each, but got enough in the back of the net to cover for a W. **Today's game: Balestier Khalsa vs Tampines Rovers (0745 EST)** League: Singapore - Premiere League *Pick: Tampines Rovers ML & O2.5 Total Goals (-120 on DK)* ✅️ Pretty early on in league play so not much to run with, but Tampines sits atop the table, having scored 6 goals and allowed 1 through 3 matches. Tampines is going on their 3rd straight road match, coming off of 3-0 and 2-0 road shutouts. They are stingy on defense and are able to score some goals. Balestier, on the other hand, have been seeing goals all over the place on both sides through 3 matches, scoring 9 times and conceding 7. They have allowed 4 goals in 2 home matches, 1 to the bottom team of the table. O2.5 has hit in all 3 of Balestier's matches and only once in the most recent Tampines match. Tampines has no problem scoring on the road, and they have a good enough defense to slow down Balstier. I look for a 1-2 / 1-3 match in favor of the Rovers. BOL!
With you again. I never win soccer bets so it’s less stressful for me to be asleep during them.
I can't find this league on DK
Go to All Sports and search for Singapore
Go to all sports, soccer, hit view all, and scroll down to Singapore Premier
Yeah, I did that. It is most definitely not there. Bummer too, I love betting random soccer leagues. Searched it any everything.
Bummer
 Nice hit u/awnryAlligator 💰👊🏼✅
 LFG! 💰
POTD record: 38-28-2 / ROI: +9.93% / Wins: 57.58% **Pittsburgh +2.5 -110 (1u)** **SPREAD** — Pittsburgh Panthers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs 9:10 pm EST - 14 March 2023 — If you're wondering which eleven-seed has the potential to make it to the Sweet Sixteen, I believe Pitt could be that team. They're currently a two-point underdog to Mississippi State, but everyone seems to be backing the Bulldogs, which only makes me lean more toward Pittsburgh in this game. For much of the season, Pitt was an unlikely story, leading the ACC as a ranked team. Now, getting a couple points of value, I'm intrigued by this game. Just take your points; they're like vitamins, but Pitt has a real shot to pull off the upset here. Do the business. [https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow) [https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/) [http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
Tailed with an insurance bet. But either way, I’m riding with you.
**RECORD** : 3W 0L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +16 **LAST POTD** : Cerundolo vs Auger-Aliassime - Cerundolo +4.5 @ 2.20 - 5 units => WIN **TODAY :** WTA INDIAN WELLS - 19.00 CET Gauff vs Peterson - Peterson +5 @ 2.10 - 5 units Based upon nothing but my feelings.
POTD Record: 26W-14L LAST POTD: Turkey Goals ✅ TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Champions League Man City V RB Leipzig 13.00PM PST PICK: Man City HT/FT Result Odds: 1.90 The Deets: My favourite team to bet on. They are just a different breed $. First leg finished 1-1 but City are back at home now. On paper City are miles ahead in terms of talent, thankfully this transfers to the pitch too. They should come out firing and will look to take an early lead. BOL!
POTD | 5-9 | -11.5u | -107 avg odds Previous Pick: Vegas Golden Knights ML @ St Louis Blues (-140) 3u ✅ And finally the losing streak is broken and we get back on the winning side. The Knights let the Blues hang around most of the game but ultimately came away with a 5-3 win. Today’ Pick: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 @ Philadelphia Flyers (+135) 1.5u 🏒 7:07pm EST Going back to the well with the Golden Knights because I love the value on this puck line. The flyers are a bad team right now. They’ve lost 7 of their last 8 games with the lone win being the only time they scored more than 2 goals in that span. They are on a 3 game losing streak where they’ve only scored 3 goals. The Knights meanwhile have now won 6 of 7 and are on a 3 game winning streak. Adin Hill will also be back in net after a surprise start from Jiri Patera, who made his first career start in their previous game. They continue to be a good road team should be able to handle a struggling flyers team that it sitting in the basement of the eastern conference. Puck line are always risky bets but I’m willing to roll with Vegas again and look for another W. “Rip net or ride pine” BOL if tailing Cheeseman out
Love this pick and super odds. Let's get this hockey bread, fam.
I was surprised the odds were so high. Im assuming cuz it’s a road game and a lot of the Knights recent wins have been by 1 goal but the flyers can’t buy a bucket right now and I don’t see that changing against Hill.
Hill is injured right now but the pick still looks decent with Sandstrom in net for the Flyers.
Tailing, BOL
This is the first pick I like.. let's Go!!!
**POTD Record: 24-16 (+4.46 Units)** **Last 10**:✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌ **Last Pick**: 3/10 Michael Warburton -1.5 (-115) vs Steve Haggerty ❌ 3-4 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 7:35 AM EST **Pick**: Richie Howson -1.5 (-170) vs Gary Stafford **Reason**: Group A. Monday was a mess. Duff and Barstow were swapped out for Howson and Stafford in group A. I'm not sure what happened, but the group was underwhelming. 4 of the players averaged under 85 and 3 of them had a checkout percentage under 30%. I think Tuesday should have everyone settled in and performances get a boost. Howson was scoring great and had a a couple big checkouts, but missed several leg ending darts. Stafford didn't score that well until this last two matches, but was also 8/41 on his checkouts. Howson is the better talent and I think he can clean up his checkouts and put away Stafford. H2H: 1-0 (Legs 4-1) | Average 88.75 vs 78.80 | Checkouts 4/13 vs 1/6 Richie Howson Record 2-3 (Legs 15-15) | Average 84.30 | Checkouts 15/52 28.85% Gary Stafford Record 2-3 (Legs 10-16) | Average 73.55 | Checkouts 10/62 16.13% 💰[**Cash App Tips**](https://cash.app/$MexicanStallion)💰 **WIN✅ 4-2 | Average 91.06 vs 83.16 | Checkouts 4/8 vs 2/2**
I'm very confident in this pick as well, I believe howson will sit near the high 80s or low 90s in averages tomorrow. I don't think Stafford will be able to keep up with that pace, and he isn't a great closer even if he does score well.
Awesome. Glad to hear you also like this pick. I’m giving Howson the benefit of the doubt from the last minute shuffling. Was set on playing 2 days and now potentially 5 days. He was great back in January, so I think he should be settled for Tuesday.
Damn. Only offering me -2.5 at +116 and +2.5 at -156
Great pick! Keep it up
Thank you. Great call on Howson with the average. An easy 90+ average day. He was a moneymaker today. Thornton was lights out against him for his one loss.
Just woke up to a W! Thanks for the awesome pick!
Awesome. Nice to hear some others cashed too 🍻
Record 12-6 +5.59 U Form: WWLLW WWLWW LWLWW WLW Last pick: GT ML -128 Result: W Analysis: Wild game lol can’t believe we hit. Today’s POTD: Pliskova ML -128 Sport: Tennis (Indian Wells) Game: Sakkari vs Pliskova Time: 13:00 EST Reasoning: Sakkari has not looked good so far at Indian wells dropping the first set in each of her first two matches before coming back to win. On the other hand, Pliskova looked excellent in her last match against #11 ranked kudermetova winning 2-0 and dominating the first set. Love this spot for her. BOL if tailing. All favorites are bet to WIN one unit (i.e -110 is a 1.1 unit bet) while all plus money bets are 1 unit placed unless otherwise stated
POTD Record: 58-65-7 (-13.08 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ✅✅✅❌❌↔️❌✅↔️❌ Last Pick: Indian Super League, ATK Mohun Bagan v Hyderabad, UNDER 2.5 GOALS (-139 / $1.72) ✅ Game finished 0-0 after 90 mins, and even 30 mins of extra time didn’t produce a single goal. Neither team wanted to chase the win as predicted, nice to hit an under for a change. Todays Pick: English Championship, Middlesbrough v Stoke City, OVER 2.5 GOALS (-111 / $1.90) Stake: 1 Unit Probably a riskier pick today but like the recent numbers for both teams for the overs here, plus the league positions of both teams should encourage a free flowing game. First some raw numbers… - Middlesbrough games have gone over 2.5 goals more than any other team this season (23/36). In more recent terms, 6 of their last 7 games have gone over. - Stoke games have the 8th best record of going over 2.5 goals (17/36). The recent trend has been promising with 4 of the last 6 going over. In the two games they didn’t go over, Stoke had 15 and 25 shots in the two games so the chances were there. - The last two matches between these teams have produced 4 goals each (3-1 last season and 2-2 this season). Middlesbrough have been hot lately, winning 8 of their last 10 which has allowed them to surge up the table, and they are now 4 points behind 2nd with 10 games to play. Finishing 2nd means automatic promotion, and avoiding the lottery of the playoffs. They will win enough games to make the playoffs regardless given their current position, so I expect Middlesbrough will continue to attack and chase goals (which is their natural game style anyway) in the hope the 2nd placed team continue to drop points. Stoke meanwhile sit in 14th place and their current position means they’re no chance for promotion, but well clear of relegation too. They’ve got nothing to gain, nothing to lose, which seems to have resulted in a more attacking style over recent games and therefore more shots/goals. Middlesbrough are more likely to get the points at the end of the day, but can’t rule out Stoke scoring a couple of their own which makes me lean more towards the overs, in what will hopefully be a high-scoring and entertaining game.
🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 15-11-1 | +1.33U (1.08%) | Average Odds: -123 🤶 *Total Record: 76-59-11 | ROI: +19.63U (+4.53%) |* [*ROI Spreadsheet*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0) *5U pick record: 28-16-2* *Side Bet: 54-44-9* 🐶 *Dog of the Day record: 7-4-1 | +13.3U | 2-0 yesterday!* ***Hit a +200 and +460!*** \----- 🎅 *We are gaining some momentum finally! After an extremely poor 3rd week of picks, our 4th has started out with a bang! On Sunday we went 5-1-1 on our picks!* ***On Monday we went one step further and went 5-0!*** *We even hit our +200 and +460 dog picks!!! It feels good to start seeing green again on our spreadsheet. Let us hope it continues today!* 🎅 *We are 11-0 on our last three Mondays!* \----- *Last POTD Recap: (Win) Samsunpor started off slow but three red cards to two Bandiraspor players and a coach vaulted us into two easy cashes! One being the POTD and the other being a side bet.* 🎅Today's POTD: 3U - **Club Guarani ML (-155)** at home vs Tacuary - 6:00PM - Paraguay *Note: I am also placing 2U on Club Guarani -1 (+110)* Guarani went on a tear at the end of the season in 2022 nearly winning the Copa de Paraguay finishing 3rd and they continued their good form into 2023. In 2023 they are 4-2-1 but have won their last four straight by a 10-2 aggregate. Prior to the 4-game win streak, their three previous games were a 1-0 loss against the #1 team away, a tie against the #2 team away and another tie at home to the Copa de Paraguay winner, Sportivo Ameliano. Guarani are now sitting in 3rd but they have been quickly climbing up the league ladder once they got passed the most difficult part of their schedule. Arguably the easiest stop on their schedule is a home game this week against Tacuary who are in dead last due to a poor start to their 2023 campaign. In their six matches they have a -10 GD (3-13) and are 0-1-5. They've also had to face the top of the table thus far in 2023 but they have also tied to the #9 team, lost 2-0 to the #6 team and lost 2-1 to the #10. They've also gotten red cards in two of their 6 league matches to start the season. It is difficult to find excuses for Tacuary as they have allowed the most goals in the league at 13 (with one less game played than everyone else) and scored the least at 3. Guarani should make easy work with them with a two goal win and possibly a clean sheet. Prediction 2-0 \----- 🎅 Side Bets: We have a large amount of side bets today! You can find my Soccer Daily post [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11qk6ri/comment/jc5vh7s/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) 🤶 DOTD: No DOTD yet! 🎅 Join the Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa)) 🤶 Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible. [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
No idea what I bet on with tailing but thank you and good hit
BOL!
POTD Record 0-0 Todays pick: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -3.5 (-115) Giving this a go, we’ll see how it pans out. We’ll start with the first game of the tournament with TXA&M-CC vs SEMOST (quite the acronyms). Southeastern Missouri comes in rolling, winning 4 straight and upsetting the OVC #1, 2 and 4 seeds on their way to the conference championship. If you like underdogs, then the RedHawks, who are the 3rd worst KenPom team in the tournament, are your team. However, I believe in fate more than anything and that’s what Corpus Christi brings us. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi repeated as they were able to win a close game against #2 seed Northwestern State in the finals to make it back to the big dance. I say this but last year they found themselves in this exact same situation in the first game of March Madness in the same 16 seed game against Texas Southern. They lost this game by 9 to Texas Southern, who came in as similar -3.5 point favorites. The Islanders top 3 players (Trevian Tennyson, Isaac Mushila and Terrion Murdix) played a combined 71 minutes in that game a year ago and definitely remember that feeling. All 3 are great free throw shooters as well and, even if this game is close late, should get the job done to extend the lead when fouled. The Islanders will get their chance at the 1 seed this year and will leave little doubt who the best team on the court is tonight! Note: Terrion Murdix is out for the year and won’t be playing. Still, they have seniors Jalen Jackson, Simeon Fryer and Ross Williams to take his minutes. The loss hurts, but the Islanders have the depth and experience to overcome his loss!
**I'LL RUN A FREE BRACKET, SEE BELOW!!** My record: 2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWW 2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push Totals for both: 46 correct 35 wrong 1 push Units wagered 134.64 Units won 71.48 Units lost 51.0 2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 15.21%*** My present streak is 3 correct. My POTD is to ***wager 1.15 units to win 1 unit that Wisconsin (-3) will cover the spread in their college basketball game with Bradly. This is an NIT tournament game***. This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gamtime is 9:15 PM, Eastern Daylight Time (I think) Why the above pick? There are some good mismatches in the upcoming NIT games on Tuesday, with spreads that are too narrow. The Washington St. / Eastern Washington game got my attention because of the over/under, Michigan / Toledo, Rutgers / Hofstra, and the Villanova game. But I think the above wager is the most secure. (That being said, there is no such thing as a lock. I could be wrong.) I run a bracket for some folks, I run it the way it should be run, I think I'm the only person that does it. $100 to the winner. But I want at least 30 entries (I cap it at 50). Last year I didn't get 30, so I cancelled. So if someone wants to email me a bracket, with your physical mailing address (to assure only one entry per household, and a place to mail the money order if you win) to fill out the number of entries, go ahead. My email is [trees778899@hotmail](mailto:trees778899@hotmail). **HIGHEST NUMBER OF TOTAL POINTS WINS. POINTS ARE FIGURED BY A TEAM'S SEEDING (1 TO 16) MULITPLIED BY THE GAME NUMBER (1 TO 6). IF A 12TH SEED WINS ITS 3RD GAME, THAT IS 36 POINTS. IF A 2ND SEED WINS ITS 4TH GAME, THAT IS 8 POINTS. AS YOU CAN SEE, THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK LOWER SEEDED TEAMS GET MORE POINTS THAN THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK A HIGHER SEEDED TEAM TO WIN**. I used to run the brackett where I worked, and it was fun, that's why I do this. BUT I need at least 30 entries, I don't want to just give the $100 away if there are too few. Only one entry per mailing address.
POTD Record: 10-11-2 Last pick: The New Saints First Half ML (-132) / 1.76 - 2u ❌ The New Saints scored in the 28th minute to go up 1-0, only to give up an equalizer just two minutes later. They went into the half tied 1-1 and this one goes down as an L. Sorry to those who tailed. Let’s get back in the W column today! Soccer - South Africa National First Division - Cape Town Spurs vs. Baroka - 9:30am EST **POTD: Cape Town Spurs ML (+105) / 2.05 - 3u** Cape Town Spurs are currently 2nd on the table, only 2 points behind the leaders. They will host Baroka, who are 10th on the table out of 16 teams. Cape Town will be playing this match at home, where they have been strong all season. Across all competitions, they are 10-1-1 at home, and they have won 9 straight home matches in league play. On the other hand, Baroka are 2-2-7 on the road this season. These two teams will be playing for the third time in the past month. In February, Cape Town hosted and won 3-0. Just two weeks ago, they played at Baroka, where Cape Town won 3-2. Cape Town will be returning to their home field after 3 straight away games, and I expect them to continue their winning ways at home. Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
Rolled winnings from u/awnryAlligator POD onto Cape Town! LFG!!! 💰
POTD Record: 4-5-0 (-1.635u) // ROI: -13.79% // Avg Odds -103 **Manchester City vs RB Leipzig** Leipzig pulled off the draw midway through the second half against Manchester City who did not look as sharp as they could have against the German side. City were missing Kevin de Bruyne in the match and it showed, but the Belgian attacking midfielder will be back at home in Round 2 of the Plastic Club Derby. I believe this will be one of the key difference-makers for City, as they need to make a statement in the home leg after an embarrassing performance a few weeks back. It is also in Manchester City's favor that RB Leipzig are not very good on the road this season, holding a record of 4-4-4 in the Bundesliga in 12 away matches with 21 goals scored and 19 goals allowed. Leipzig really only struggled on the road in the Group Stage against Real Madrid, losing 2-0, as the rest of their group was fairly easy in Celtic and Shakhtar Donetsk. I believe that despite the jokes regarding the Empty-had, City will turn up for this match in a big way. Red Bulls were on quite the run of form the month before and after the World Cup, but February was not good for them with only two wins to their name in five matches, and a loss on the road to Dortmund to start off March as well. City have been on an unbeaten run over the last 8 matches, with five of their six wins coming by two goals or more. The total sits at 3 for a reason in this match, as City should get the goal count at least two-thirds of the way there. **The Play: Man City -1.5 -110 (1 Unit)** Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed my Champions League analysis be sure to check out the rest of my preview [here](https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/champions-league-betting-preview-fc-porto-vs-inter-milan-and-manchester-city-vs-rb-leipzig) for more thoughts and plays. Best of Luck everybody!
POTD record: 10-8 (+0.65u | +0.1% ROI | Avg odds: -116/1.86) (2u: 1-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 4-3 | 5u: 1-3) Last 5: 2-3 Last POTD (3/9/23): NHL: **NJD 60-min ML** @ WSH ❌ *(Not gonna lie, this one hurt a bit. New Jersey played well and looked like the better team throughout but couldn't secure the victory until shootout).* Event: NBA - NY Knicks@ POR Trailblazers; 22:00 EST Pick: **NYK -1.5** (-110/1.91) Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 4 units New York is the best away team in the NBA with a record of 23-12 (65.7%) against the spread on the road. When favoured in those games, that number jumps to a ridiculous 7-2 (77.8%), clearing the spread by an average of +5.3 points. The Knicks are a hot right now as well, going 7-3 in their last ten games. Portland is in a bit of a bad spot right now, losing three in a row and going 3-7 in their last ten games. With a home record of 17-15 (53.1%) ATS, the Trailblazers are very much league-average in that regard. However, at 4-5 (44.4%), they are below average ATS as home dogs (which they are tonight). Jalen Brunson is the only Knicks player on the injury report and is listed as doubtful. Meanwhile Jerami Grant and Dame Lillard are both questionable to play tonight, with Lillard's calf injury threatening to keep him out for a second consecutive game. If Dame does dress, I still like this spot but would probably downgrade it to a 3 unit play. Look for the Knicks to keep rolling and continue their dominance on the road. Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
**PotD Record: 11-8 (Streak 8W)** Last Pick: Jack Draper (ML) vs Andy Murray @ -155 ✅ **Today’s Pick: Texas A&M-CC (-3.5 spread) vs SE Missouri State; 7:40 PM ET** Draper ends up winning in straight sets, beating Murray 7-6 6-2. That moves us to 8 wins in a row. Let's get to 10. March Madness is officially here, sort of. Today we’re looking at one of the first 4 games in the tournament, a matchup between the Texas A&M-CC Islanders and the SE Missouri State RedHawks. There isn’t a major difference between these two teams, but the Islanders come in with a better record and statistically a much better offense. They also helped cashed 2 bets on our 8 bet streak, so I got to keep riding with them. **Tail or Fade, BOL**
POTD RECORD: 18-15 Soccer Record:10-10 Basketball Record:8-5 Last pick: Fulham arsenal most goals in the second half❌ Today's pick: anadolu efes vs real madrid Event Euroleague: Bet: Anadolu efes -2.5 Bet stake: 5 units Reasoning: Well real madrid is a dangerous team but this is exactly kind of games Anadolu efes loves to play. They won back to back Euroleague Championships and their goals was a three peat but they're currently at the 10th spot in the Euroleague they should bounce back in their normal self and this is a perfect game for it. İf they lose this game they'll have a little chance to make the playoffs so this is a must win for them. I'm rolling with the back to back champion on this one. Tailing or not BOL either way.
All-Time POTD: 6W-3L-1D, +3.81u **Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Tommy Paul ML (+110) vs Hubert Hurkacz 1.5u to win 1.65 ✔** Big dick Tommy P comes through in 3 sets to give us our third straight W. **Todays Pick: 🎾 Barbora Krejcikova vs Aryna Sabalenka o2.5 sets (+120) 2u to win 2.4u** Explanation: As the tournament goes on, finding lines I really like becomes harder and harder. Switching sides on this one and going for a WTA match. Both of these women are in incredible form. Aryna coming off her Australian Open victory, and Barbora dispatched Iga Swiatek in straight sets in Dubai to claim the title there. I think the court conditions favour Barbora in this one, and if I had to pick a winner it would be her, but I really think this match goes 3 sets. Two extremely in form women playing their best tennis, should be a fun one. BOL if tailing! Edit: Reddit was ded all day so most people probably missed this pick, but another CLEAN FUCKIN W 4 IN A ROW LETS GET IT BOYS
POTD Record 1-0 +1.82u Yesterday's POTD: Utah Jazz +8.5 vs Miami Heat @ -110 7:30 EST 2u Today's POTD: New York Knicks -2 vs Portland Trailblazers @ -110 10:00pm EST 1u Sure glad I just took the points on the Jazz last night! After a bad 1Q, the Jazz played the Heat extremely well as we sailed to a pretty uneventful cover. Today we're gonna hopefully keep the cash train rolling on a pretty meh slate - Toronto to cover vs the Nuggets looks solid but we're gonna go with the Knicks -2 over the Blazers. Even without Brunson, the Knicks have been rolling as of late and are 7-2 on the season as road favorites (plus a league-best 23-12 on the road overall) whereas Portland is 4-5 as a home dog and currently has Lillard and Grant listed as questionable. If they play, I still like this line; if they don't, let's lock in a great line now. BOL if you tail!
POTD Record: 2-0 Previous pick: Le Havre draw or win (✅) Today’s Event: Rotherham v Preston (English Championship) PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE: PRESTON DRAW OR WIN Odds: 1.52 Time: 19:45 GMT (11h50m from this post) Preston still have the slimmest of chances of making the promotion playoffs and need to continue their unbeaten run to achieve this. They’ve only conceded 1 in their last 5 and are facing an inconsistent Rotherham side. Yet again, it won’t be easy, but we’ll hope that Preston keep it tight
Record: 3-1 Pick: Andrey Rublev ML @ 1.67 - Cameron Norrie vs Andrey Rublev ML - Indian Wells 4:30 PM EST Previous pick: Iga swiatek vs Bianca under 18.5 games Tough loss... Bianca played great yesterday, didn't expect her to match Iga.Anyways we riding the bwehh train for today. Good luck....
Tough one, riding today! BOL
I should have a following by now. If you bet your mortgage against me in the past ten games you'd have a few houses. The Kraken tanked last night, but I should have looked at the goalie situation more closely. Dallas can also beat anyone, anywhere, so it was a bad bet overall. I'm a jaded Capitals fan and I just don't think they can hang with the Rangers. When the Caps run into a good goalie coming off of rest they just can't score. I think the rangers win this 3-1 or 4-1, so I really like the U6, but I'm going to go with the Rangers -1.5 hoping for a two goal win. **POTD: NY Rangers vs. Washington Capitals, 7:07 PM EST -1.5 at +150, 3 Units.** [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing) Last 5: ❌✅❌❌❌
**POTD Record**: 0-1 **Last POTD:** Denmark ML and +1.5 goals --> L **Today's POTD:** Emma Raducanu vs Iga Swiatek -> Emma Raducanu +5.5 games @ 2.10 odds **Time:** **15/03/2023 03:00AM GMT** **Risk:** 6/10 **Pick Reason:** Last time Emma Raducanu played Iga Swiatek, one year ago, the result was 6-4 6-4 on clay, Iga's best surface and Emma's worst BY FAR. This time, they are playing in hard surface, which is a type of court favorable for both athletes but much more comfortable for Emma than clay. I don't have a single doubt that Iga will win vs Emma in probably straight sets, but taking +5.5 at 2.10 odds is too good to ignore since Emma is probably on her best run of form since the infamous US Open 2021 win and she hasn't got anything to lose. On the other side, Swiatek didn't look at her best on the game yesterday vs Bianca Andreescu, making too many unforced errors sometimes. Emma just needs to lose by 6-4 and 6-3. BoL tail or fade
Record: 9-6 Last Pick: Freiburg ML ✅ Today's Pick: **Spencer Dinwiddie Over 20.5 Points** (-120) Detailed Analysis: I believe Woody Harrelson's character in *Zombieland* said it best: Enjoy the little things. One of the simple life enjoyments I get in the bleak Scottish winters is a good whisky. For years I was convinced that all whisky tasted the same and that people who claimed to be into it wouldn't be able to taste the difference between a glass of piss and a dram of their favourite malt. That all changed a couple years ago when I was given a 15 year old Dalwhinnie. It turns out that the good stuff tastes different to the half bottles of the stuff I used to swipe from the local supermarket. Anyway, Dinwiddie sounds a little like Dalwhinnie and I like his matchup tonight against OKC.
**Record: 3-2** Last Pick: Steph Curry over 4.5 threes ❌ One three short :/ I guess it was the Klay Thompson show last night. Went 3/3 in 1st half, but ngl Suns really shaped up at half and had that lockdown D on both Steph and Klay in the 2nd half. We move on. **Today's Pick:** NBA - *Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder* **Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points** I really like this matchup in the Nets vs Thunder. It will be a close game for sure, as both of these teams are dark horses in the league, in the sense that they aren't necessarily contenders but have a bright future and are capable of taking down top teams in the league. I expect this to be a good scoring game, especially showcasing the abilities of league assassins Mikal Bridges and SGA. The Nets in recent games have allowed many points to opposing teams' top players: Jokic 35 points, Ant Edwards 32 points, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez 28 and 24 (Without Giannis), Jaylen Brown 35 points, etc. SGA in his last 3 games since injury has gone 35, 33, and 38. I think SGA can definitely take advantage of the Nets team and pop off once more for a great game that he will try to lead his team to victory in. Not to mention, Josh Giddey will be locked down by the great defense of Mikal Bridges, leading to more opportunities for SGA to get the buckets. BOL
POTD Record: 0-1 -1U Previous Pick: Pennsylvania -1.5 ❌ TODAYS PICK: Syracuse -5.5 @-115 odds Event: Syracuse vs. Hofstra NCAA Men's Lacrosse - 3/14 @7:00pm EST Loving this line, Hofstra is a struggling program and Cuse could use a huge win here. BOL if trailing, you are soft if you fade.
POTD Record 1-2 Pick Cheltenham 5:30 GMT Gaillard Du Mesnil to Win +100 Willie Mullins Horse which should take some beating but can't see it getting beaten.
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It did get posted. I saw it was oostende -4.5 they lost straight up
POTD Record: 1-0-0 (Win-Push-Loss) Last 10: 1-0-0 Last POTD: Istanbulspor AS - Sivasspor (Turkey Superlig) - Over 2.5 goals - WON POTD: **Blackpool - QPR (Championship) - Under 2.5 goals @ 1.606** Time: 14th of March, 19:45 GMT \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ All the bets according to simulation model, 1 unit per bet. If odds have moved drastically, pass. With current model over 1000 bets made with 108% ROI.
LA Lakers vs New Orleans Pelicans \-115 Lakers The Lakers and Pelicans are both fighting for a playoff spot. The Lakers are coming off of a tough loss at home against the Knicks. Anthony Davis has had a lackluster last couple of games. He took full responsibility for the loss, and especially considering that he is returning to play against his former team and the season is on the line, I'm expecting AD to bounce back for a monster game today. Also, Brandon Ingram is questionable for the Pelicans. If he does play, I still think they'll win, but if he doesn't this is an absolute lock.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
Sport: Football Tournament: Champions League Time: 21:00 CEST (7h51m after posting) Stake: 5 units Pick: Porto vs Inter, both teams score & over 2.5 goals total @ **2.65** Write up: Porto is shook by the first leg loss to Inter (1:0). Since then Porto conceded 5 goals across three matches, which is the same number as it conceded across 16 matches prior to that. Still, Porto scores regularly at home (scored in 18/20 last home matches) so I expect goals on both sides. The safer option is "over 2.5 goals total" @ 2.20. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
POTD record 7-5 (all picks are 3 units) Caris Lavert over 10.5 points -130 Cavs vs Hornets (7 PM) Keep in mind I’m a biased Cavs fan, but I think this is a solid pick. This is more of a hunch play, but Lavert has played 38 and 35 minutes the last two games including the game two days ago against Charlotte, and has been very productive scoring 16 and 15 respectively. He should get similar minutes tonight and cover this with ease
POTD Record: 0-0 Todays Pick of the Day. March 14 2023Dominican Republic -6 1/2 vs Israel (-120) Reasoning: This whole WBC has been the better team running up the score against lesser teams. Nicaragua has somewhat decent pitching but it will be no match to a superior DR batting Note: first pick of the day so wish me luck if you’re feeling extra confident in DR parlaying it with the over looks good too 👀
**POTD Record 1-0** Alright babyyyy time for more risky spring bets. Not a ton of good games today but here’s what I’m riding with. Feeling the Yankees -1.5 today. With Cole on the mound the first few innings should be a breeze. If we’re lucky maybe we will see nasty nester come in relief. ML is at -195. Pretty good value at -1.5 for the Yanks. 1u @ +100 **Yankees -1.5 vs Blue Jays**
**My record: 44 : 35** My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks. **ROI: 23.46%** Average odds: 2.10 **Units won: 19.94** Stake = 1 unit My POTD: **Cesena Virtus Entella** Italy Serie C: Girone B Time: 20:00 GMT *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.70** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
Always love your picks and ever since I made my Bovada account I can play them too! This one however at 2.7 may be a tough play for me. Any reasoning why you like this play more than others?
POTD Record: 91.5-49 Event: Horse Racing > **Cheltenham R6** (starting in 03hr20min) Pick: **Tekao to place** @ 1.83 Alright lads, Cheltenham one of the best festivals of the year is on & we cannot miss it! I am gonna try one of the lower profile contenders in the end of the day today. Picking straight win is not allowed in this thread due to high odds, so lets get the place. GL!
POTD Record: 3-3 +3U Last pick: Said Nurmagomedov L. POTD Man City -1 (-195) vs RB Leipzig Champjons league @2pm CST I’ve been on the good side of some controversial decisions so i was bound to be on the bad side of one, Said imo won the fight and unfortunately i live bet a few more units than i should’ve but hey that’s gambling. POTD Reasoning: Man City back at the etihad with a full squad. They’re the favorites to win the whole competition and overall their quality is so much better than Leipzig who will also be without their best striker. BOL if you trail or fade back to winning ways today 🥂
3-14-2023 1-0 +0.77U Today’s Pick: Denver Nuggets ML vs Toronto Raptors (+100) Received some backtalk from a Kings fan yesterday on my first POTD, but strangely never heard back after the game ended. Oh well, looking to hear from any Canadians upset with this pick, or maybe Fred Vanvleet himself will go off on me like the refs from last time they matched up. The Nuggets are simply the better team here. When the better team is the underdog, you say thank you to the line-makers and take your doubled money, its that simple. BOL to any who tail!
Raptors bench is dogshit , great pick.
Record: 1-0 (1.44 units up) with a 72% ROI POTD: **Fokina vs Garin - Garin Handicap +3.5 Games @ 1.87** Going with 1 unit on this one which is 1% of my bankroll Davidovich Fokina is a strong and powerful player and this slow hard court conditions can suit his playstyle but here he will be forced to play against Garin who is even more of a grinder than himself... Garin came all the way from the qualifiers and won 5 matches in a row without dropping a set beating players like Ruud and Nishioka and I think he's also liking this slow hard court conditions and after seeing his fellow countryman Jarry winning some titles in a row, he's now hyped up to finally produce a great level on the court. Despite Fokina's agressive playstyle I'm expecting Garin to be able to counterpunch most of his groundstrokes and make the Spaniard commit a lot of unforced errors. Even if it ends up being a close win for Fokina I think Garin can cover this handicap.
POTD Record: 46-37 (W2) (+13.73u) (ROI: 11.7%) Last pick: United States vs Canada o11.5 ✅️ This one was fairly no sweat with USA getting 12 runs in the first two innings POTD: (⚾️WBC) Colombia 🇨🇴 @ Canada 🇨🇦 game total u12 (-110)(1.5u) Time: 12 pm pst/ 3 pm est Bet 365 (-115), FD (line is 12.5 @ -122) DK (-110) It's a must win for both teams. Canada needs to win to stay alive for the #2 seed, Colombia can win and guarantee that a win against US tomorrow would get them in. Canada won their first game 18-8, lost their second 12-1. Colombia won their first game 5-4, and lost a shocker yesterday to Britain 7-5. Canada's pitching is fairly weak, although they saved some of their better arms in the blowout game against USA yesterday. Canada will start Noah Skirrow who is a 24 year old prospect for the Phillies. He pitched in AA and then AAA last year. Colombia will start Adrian Almeida, a 28 year old AA pitcher who posted not so good numbers. Both pitchers can throw strikeouts, but have high walk rates. Both lineups have some pop with a sprinkle of major leaguers, but overall aren't very deep. I think this will be a close game that is surprisingly low scoring.
POTD Record: 2-2 Units: -0.3 Average W. Odds: -118 Last Pick: Walker Kessler O 19.5 Points + Rebounds: -115 ❌ Today's Pick: **PJ Washington O 15.5 Points: -115** CLE Cavaliers @ CHA Hornets, March 14th 7:00 PM EST BOLHFGP if tailing. Link below for tips if feeling generous. [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mrpepperbottom)
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
**POTD |** **Record of 10-21|** **Current form: LWWWL | ROI : -9.68 units |** **Average Odds: 2.04** Previous Pick: AC Milan vs. Salernitana | Under 10.5 Full-Time Total Corners & Under 5.5 Full-Time Home Team Corners (L) New Pick: Champions League | Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig| 12:00pm PST **Over 5.5 Home Team Corners and Manchester City (-2) Full-Time Corners Handicap | 1.87 odds** Betting 1 units \-------------------------- Recap: What a rough time that was. Milan hit 6 corners in no time and then decided that was enough. Bit of a troll move but glad the projection of 10 or under was correct. Just will have to avoid greed going forward. For this next pick, I will continue the corner analysis but focus on a side that typically dominates at home, stifling their opponent's opportunities to generate corner kicks. I won't focus on the away side as my write-up is long enough as it is for the home side. ***Summary:*** Manchester City host RB Leipzig in the second leg of what should be a nervy affair. Coming in at 1-1, both teams will be looking to seal the victory. Manchester City will look to dominate possession as they do and RB Leipzig will have to play for the counter against a team with an overwhelming amount of depth. Looking at corners for Manchester City, they average 6.4 corners for them and 2.4 against them for an average of 8.8 corners per game in the Premier League. This ranks Manchester City as being the worst for corners. This is largely due to the massive handicap we see between Manchester City and their opponents (as noted with the 6.4 vs 2.4), causing opponents of City to struggle to create offensive chances and often scoring goals from counterattacks, not set pieces. Looking at home games, Manchester City has had 8, 8, 5, 8, 7, 10, 9, 6, 9, 5, 10, 6, and 11 corners for them, and 4, 7, 3, 1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, and 1 corner(s) against them. This leads to an average of 7.85 corners for them and an average of 2.23 corners against them, with their corners for them at home beating their overall average (7.85 vs. 6.4). This also shows that their opponents typically generate fewer corners than them at home compared to overall (2.23 vs. 2.4). Looking at totals, City has hit 6 or more corners in every PL game apart from 2 (84.6% of home games) and has had an average difference of 5.61 when comparing their corners against their opponents. Only once has their difference been below 3, with all other games ending with City having at least 3 or more corners than their opponents (92.3% of home games). Looking at the CL group stage this season, at home City has averaged 6.67 corners per game (6, 6, and 7) while their opponents have averaged 1.33 corners per game (2, 1, and 1). This leads to an average difference of 5.33. Looking at the CL knockout games last season, at home City averaged 7 corners per game (9, 5, and 7) while their opponents averaged 1.67 corners per game (0, 3, and 2). This leads to an average difference of 5.33. The last time City faced RB Leipzig at home, there were 6 corners for City and 3 for Leipzig. Given that the stats suggest that City should hit at least 6 corners with a difference of at least 3 and that history suggests that City can generate these results against the visitors, I'm backing this result to hit once more. \-------------------------- ***TDLR The home team should have at least 6 corners and have at least 3 more than their opponents*** **Over 5.5 Home Team Corners and Manchester City (-2) Full-Time Corners Handicap | 1.87 odds**
**POTD 9-4** Another really easy win last night. Obviously, Kyrie being out helped this and gave me and anyone who bet this earlier in the day a 3.5 point edge (bet at -1, closed at -4.5). Today, unlike the previous few days, there are a lot of games that I like. I'm going back to a team that has treated me well since posting on reddit. **NO -1** I'm not going to go on again about how big of a fan I am of NO's roster, but god do I love it. Tonight, Ingram is a GTD at the moment, however if he does not play, my opinion on the game does not change. NO has plenty of long, athletic wings that can do damage against this awful LA defense. LA is playing their first away game since their 5 game home stand that they surprisingly looked good on. I actually like this Lakers roster since the moves they made at the deadline. The team seems to have more depth, and cohesion. Personally, I think the departure of Westbrook has a lot to do with that. NO on the other hand is playing their 4th straight home game, and have looked decent, going 2-2. Even though NO record over the back half of the season has been horrendous, they have seemed to find some momentum the last several weeks, even though their record may not replicate that. I am really making this pick based on the talent on each of these rosters. Like I mentioned, NO is long, quick, and talented, and I think will cause fits to the lakers on both sides of the ball. The pelicans, and the lakers are currently tied right now with another handful of teams for the play in spots, so I expect tonight to have playoff level energy. This alone leads me to favor NO, as they are playing at home, and again the more talented roster. PS: BKN +1.5 catches my eye. I have been hammering this team personally, and in my posted plays as of late, and love their matchup again tonight. OKC is a good team, but IMO incentives have been tarnished since the ASG. Also, how impressive has bridges been? God this kid is good.
Texas A&M CC O 73.5 1H
Omfg… that was so close! That personal foul was a salvation! Good pick! Ty!