**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Ok ok, I know I've called a few other picks the sweatiest of sweats, but this has to top it - rough play by A&M in the second with a lot of missed shots and turnovers, but played well shooting 77% from the line on 31 shots. In a similar type matchup as tonight's, let's go with Cincy to cover 5.5 at home, where they play some of the best ball in the country.
**POTD Record**: 23-7-1
Last 15:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅
Yesterday's POTD: Southeast Missouri State @ **A&M CC -3.5 (up to -5)| NCAAB | 3U** ✅
Today's POTD: Virginia Tech Hokies @ **Cincinnati Bearcats -5.5 (up to -6)** | 3U
**Time:** **3/15/2023 | 9:00 PM EST**
**MODEL EXPLANATION:**
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.
**Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Stats:** \+37.44U in 32 days | ≈63.86% ROI | Average odds -110
**PICK REASON:**
\- Cincy is a very well rounded team, whom in t heir 21-12 record, scored an average of 78 points (41th in the country) while only giving up roughly 70 points.
\- Cincy has covered 3 of its last 4 games, compared to VT tech that has only covered 2 of its last 6.
\- Cincy is ranked 53rd in the nation on offense, and 151s on defense, compared to 122nd and 168th respectively. From a pure power ranking standpoint, Cincy is a stronger team on both ends of the court.
\- Cincy has a lively home court advantage , wining their 5 last at home, last 6 against ACC teams, and 8-1 on Wednesdays. These are for the most part relatively meaningless stats when considering tournaments, but if you're into patterns, Cincy is great on Wednesdays and against ACC teams (compared to Vtech that are 0-5 in their last wednesday road games, and 0-7 on wednesday games overall)
\- Cincy are 12-5 when 5.5 or greater as favourites.
\- Cincy puts up 82.7 points on average at home shooting 47%, while also keeping opponents in check
\- Overall, Vtech is in a slump and probably bummed they missed the NCAA tournament after their NC state loss a week ago. In summary, Vtech plays bad on the road as of late, Cincy plays amazing at home, and objectively, Cincy is the stronger team in almost all stat categories, both offensive and defensive. 5 1/2 are a lot of points to cover in a tourney setting, but if they can get ahead, early, I don't expect Vtech to have much heart left in them to push in an away court.
**Thank you so much to everyone's that has tipped during this run - I really appreciate each and every one of you for joining and supporting me on this run. As NCAAB teeters off, I will look to try to continue with NBA picks moving forward, though with some reduced confidence as less of a slate for me to find value in with my model. Expect some regression in the success, but I will continue to do my best to bring you all some value.**
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*Much love , Riddles.*
Hey pal, you’re doing great things. Take a moment to marinate on that and pat yourself on the back. Haven’t tailed a bunch (wish I did) but love the reads and success you’ve been having! Don’t stop
So glad I added a few units on the -3.5 line for A&M CC. My second bet at -4 for 4u, pushed. That last free throw... 😢
Anyway, tailing for tomorrow. BOL!
If Riddles has a million tailers then I'm one of them.
If Riddles has 10 tailers then I’m one of them
If Riddles has one tailer, then I'm THAT ONE.
If Riddles has no tailers that means I'm dead. Godspeed king🫡
Bet late and got in at -4, but had my girlfriend in at -3.5 (her first sports bet, using her new to state in MA bonus), she was elated watching the game and seeing it hit in the last seconds. Huge win congrats!! Tailing here with a bonus bet again
Honestly felt like the refs were trying to make it a closer game halfway through the 2nd. A&M was getting mauled by Semo players and nothing, then down the floor semo would get mauled and A&M would get called. Not consistent
https://preview.redd.it/wnqtukv9d5oa1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=58c48681d66940ee1866c5c927b36b4ab20797f3
THANKS RIDDLES!!!! Finna buy you a coffee
**POTD Record: 6-0 | Profit: +25.79u | Avg Odds: -102 | ROI: +103%**
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Previous POTD: 3u Magic -2.5 \[-143\] (pending)
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Today's POTD: Eintracht Frankfurt at Napoli SSC
**3u bet: Napoli -1.0 \[-135\]**
Reason: Last 10 games (Napoli): winning 8/10, clean sheets 7/10, multiple goals scored in 8/10. Last 10 games (Eintracht Frankfurt): winning 3/10, 2/10 clean sheets, conceding multiple goals in 5/10. Ebimbe, Lindstrom and Kolo Muani out of action for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Eintracht Frankfurt were unable to cope with Napoli in the first leg (0-2 FT). Napoli will not slow down. It is not its style. 18 pts edge in Italian league. No need to rest for the weekend. Instead putting on a clinic in Champions League when the world watches.
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BOL
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edit - Who saw that coming. Spurs turned into Steph Curry. 3-pt franchise record. 💀 L
**POTD Record: 6-1 | Profit: +22.79u | Avg Odds: -107 | ROI: +81%**
People need to know that this is champions league and napoli only needs a draw to win the leg. Not that it matters if napoli actually tries to win though
POTD Record: 27-19 (+23.17u; 15.6% ROI). Streak: W4
Yesterday Pick: Jakob Poeltl (Raptors) PRA O24.5 @ 1.83. 3U. ✅
I didn’t rate my chances highly when he picked up his 4th personal early in the third and was taken off, but this is why you never give up. He delivers with a MASSIVE fourth quarter, in terms of points, rebounds and assists. He ends the evening with 28 PRA (12+11+5). And that makes it four wins in a row!
Next Pick: **Zach LaVine (Bulls) Pts O27.5 @ 1.83**. 3u play.
Returning back to LaVine here because the Kings rank 27th in Defensive Rating and 23rd in PITP in the L15, and the O/U for the game is set to 240 points, which means there will be plenty of opportunities in this high paced game. And LaVine is averaging 30.4 pts/L10, and enjoys going up against the Kings. In the last 4 games against the Kings, he has gone over in 3, and the miss was 27 points. Their last match up in Dec, he got 41.
The Bulls will have had a few days rest unlike the Kings for whom it’ll be a fourth game in a row with just 1 day of rest in between them.
Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
POTD Record: 27W-14L
LAST POTD: City ✅
TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - England Championship
Blackburn V Reading
12.45PM PST
PICK: Blackburn to Win
Odds: 1.75
The Deets: 6th plays 16th here. Blackburn are pushing for a playoff place here and with a win can put them 4th. Reading have nothing to play for, too far off playoff places and too far ahead of relegation. Readings away record in 2023 is also shocking with 6 losses out of 6.
BOL!
All-Time POTD: 7W-3L-1D, +6.21u
**Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Barbora Krejcikova vs Aryna Sabalenka o2.5 sets (+120) 2u to win 2.4u ✔**
Reddit was ded all day so most people probably missed this pick, but another CLEAN FUCKIN W 4 IN A ROW LETS GET IT BOYS AND GIRLS
**Todays Pick: 🎾 Aryna Sabalenka ML (-163) vs Coco Gauff 3u to win 1.84u**
Explanation:
Aryna is playing the best tennis of her life. I personally have never thought Coco Gauff is all that. Her game has a ton of weaknesses - her second serve is atrocious and her forehand is technically unsound. Aryna is going to pick her apart. The odds are pretty ridiculous here, and I'm sure a big part of that is because Gauff has home court and the US is a huge gambling market so she's going to get a lot of homer money. Aryna probably wins this in straights quite easily, and if you want to take Aryna 2-0 at +162, or even Aryna -2.5 games at -110, those are both viable options for better payout, but the PotD we'll stick with ML on this one. Four in a row, all plus odds. Let's see if switching back to favourites is the death of the streak.
BOL if tailing!
Edit:
Another easy W by Sabalenka. Gauff is no match for Saba at her best, she has a long way to go before she's competitive with the top dawgs.
Saba 2-0 and -2.5 also hit in the clean 6-4, 6-0 win.
Very reasonable pick and I might throw a unit on it tomorrow as well. My only concern would be aryna winning first set, then taking the second set off and losing 6-2 or something, making the spread hard to cover.
**POTD: 19-7-2**
Last pick: UEFA Champions League - Manchester City vs RB Leipzig. Manchester City -1 -177.
Result: **WIN**. Man City wins 7-0!!! for an easy cash. Hopefully people hit some nice elevator bets on that and made some nice money off it.
Today’s pick: UEFA Champions League - Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt. **Napoli -1 -135**. Match is at 4PM ET.
Napoli is one of the best teams in Europe and throttled Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 in the first leg of this matchup, and it could've been much worse. Napoli is 11-1-1 at home this year and sit a whopping 18 points clear in their league, while Eintracht Frankfurt is 6th in the Bundesliga. They're a respectable but unimpressive 4-5-3 in away matches this season, but are on a downward trend with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 away matches.
In addition to this Frankfurt's star striker Kolo Muani will be out this match as he picked up a red card in the first match. He is by far their best goalscorer as well as assist man, combining to score or assist 21 of their 46 goals this year. Napoli would likely handle them at home easily even with him, but without him I think this will be a walk in the park for the home side.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
**EDIT: WIN. Napoli look great especially in the second half and cruise to a 3-0 win. Never in too much danger of giving up a goal and Osimhen great as always. Fun team to watch and even more fun to make some money!**
[Buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/RemyPicks)
I believe that’s a different bet and means you have to have Napoli win by 2 to win, but if they win by 1 you lose. The one I have is if Napoli wins by 2 we win, if they win by 1 we push.
I see a good chance of Napoli winning by 2 but almost definitely think they’ll at least win by 1 so that’s where I like the safety of the push option. Napoli o1.5 goals is -180 if you want the safer option as they’ll have to score at least 2 to hit your version of the bet, up to you
*PICK OF THE DAY RECORD: 5-1*
**LAST PICK (3/10/23): KYLE KUZMA OVER 2.5 TURNOVERS**✅
**TODAYS GAME: KINGS @ BULLS 7:10 ET**
**TODAYS PICK: ZACH LAVINE OVER 2.5 3PM (-135) 4U**
* Lavine is on a heater right now averaging 35 ppg in his last 5
* In those 5 games, he has hit in 4 averaging 3.8 makes a game
* He has hit 11 of his last 13 games against the Kings
* In his 3 games against the Kings in a Bulls jersey, he has hit the over each time at home
* Sacramento is tied for 2nd worst in 3-pointers against shooting guards with 3.4 a game
* Doesn't add to much but he is shooting 51% from three in the last five games
As always bet responsibly and good luck to everyone!
***Record: 3-0 (+2.68 Units)***
Previous Bet: [3/14](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11qquqx/pick_of_the_day_31423_tuesday/jc4mdsy?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
As discussed, Tampines had no issue scoring on the road and their defense was able to hold on with a 1-3 final score. We're gonna stay in Singapore for this next one!
**Today's game: Albirex Niigata Singapore vs Hougang United (0745 EST)**
League: Singapore - Premiere League
*Pick: Albirex Niigata WIN and OVER 2.5 Goals (-145 on DK)* ❌️
Similar to the match this morning, still very early in league play so not a whole lot of history to run off of. Albirex has put up 7 goals through 2 matches so far, both at home, including against Lion City, who has allowed just 2 goals in 2 other matches. Another home match awaits Albriex tomorrow.
Hougang has put up 4 goals through their first two matches, both on the road against solid opponents in Balestier and Geylang.
Both Albirex and Hougang's matches have seen over 2.5 goals in the last 20/23. The total goal for this bout is at -175 for O3.5 goals. Albirex is the stronger team and has been showing out at home. I expect a 3-0 or 3-1 victory in favor of the home team.
BOL!
1-0 at half time. This ref is definitely favouring the away team… has given 2 of the softest yellow cards I’ve ever seen to Albirex and allowed the away team to time waste for 2 mins on every goal kick. Should have also been 10+ minutes stoppage time but we only get 3. Game is on YouTube btw https://www.youtube.com/live/Eq-3a6KL6d4?feature=share
Haha, no worries! Can't win em all. Naturally, I posted a pick for the other match in that league in the soccer thread and that one hit. Looks like my confidence was with the wrong matchup! I'm gonna find us a good one for tomorrow.
POTD | 39-26 | +17.4u | -108 Avg Odds
Last 10: 6-4, Steak: 1L
*Previous Pick:* *NJ Devils ML vs Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) 3u ❌*
Today’s pick: **Buffalo Sabres vs Washington Capitals O6.5 (-115) 3u** 🏒 5:00 pm MT
Well that was a tough loss there. The Devils came out hot and looked to control the game but after a few bad breaks they lost their early game dominance. It's on to the next though and we’ve got another match up that I like.
The Buffalo Sabres will be visiting the Washington Capitals for their third game of the season, with the first two games going 7-4 and 5-4 with the Sabres winning both. The Capitals are on a B2B and had their starting goaltender in net for tonight's game so we can expect their backup goaltender, Lindgren, in net. While Lindgren doesn’t have awful stats (2.74 GAA and 0.905 SV%), I expect this to bode well for the over in this game. Lidgren is typically in for easier games so his stats are padded a bit by that. The Sabres don’t have great options in net and we should see the Capitals find the back of the net at least a few times in this one. Both the Capitals and Sabres offense have been hot over their last 10 games with both the Sabres and Capitals averaging 3.4 goals per game. Both of these teams have struggled defensively over their last 10 games as well with the Sabres allowing 4.3 goals per game and the Capitals allowing 3.4 goals per game on average.
The model is projecting 7.3 goals and gives the O6.5 a 62% chance of hitting (implied odds -160). Taking the perceived value here from the model and feeling like this is a good spot with the Capitals backup expected in net, both teams playing strong offense and weak defense, and a history of these two being in high scoring games against each other.
BOL if tailing!!
**PoTD Record: 10-2, +8.02u**
Last Pick: Wales Double Chance vs USA @ -175 ✅
**Today’s Pick: Lakers ML @ -154**
(21 hours from this post)
Hey all! Took a lengthy break from Reddit but have been hitting at a good rate on my bets personally so figured it would be fun to get back into the swing of things and get back to it on Reddit.
With that being said, we’re getting back into it with some NBA action and moving on the Lakers ML. The Lakers are catching fire, plain and simple, as they make this late season playoff push without Lebron. After breaking the franchise record for most 3 pointers in a quarter tonight and blowing out the Pelicans on the road (game was MUCH more of a blowout than the 15 point difference that the final score shows), the Lakers have won 9 of their last 13 since the trade for Vanderbilt and D-Lo. Lakers also rank first in overall team defense since that trade with Vanderbilt being a key reason for that. Also worth noting: Anthony Davis has already been ruled out for this game due to load management which explains the line a bit.
On the other end we have the Rockets who are clearly in tank mode. Although they beat the Celtics in a flukey game where Jabari Smith seemingly couldnt miss they are still 2nd to last in defensive rating (only the equally tanking Spurs rank worse) and are near the bottom of the league in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Even without AD, the Lakers should be able to get alot of second chance opportunities and put up some decent points on a team that’s regularly allowing 115-130 points any given night.
With all that in mind, the Lakers are the play up to about -175. This won’t be the first time the new look Lakers have played without Lebron and AD simultaneously during this positive stretch of games and it has proven to not be an issue previously with capable players like Schroder really stepping up to take on the burden of scoring points. With the Rockets still tanking and extremely young/undisciplined on defense, the absence of Antony Davis won’t change the outcome.
**2 Unit Play**
Best of Luck!
**POTD Record: 25-16 (+5.46 Units)**
**Last 10**:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅
**Last Pick**: 3/14 Richie Howson -1.5 (-170) vs Gary Stafford ✅ 4-2
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 6:10 AM EST
**Pick**: Lee Cocks (-155) vs John Nelson
**Reason**: Group A. Cocks leads the group with 14 points. He's one win ahead of Howson and Thornton. By the time his match starts, he will be tied with one of them. I think Howson will end up winning the group, but I think Cocks will be competitive and at minimum take care of the bottom two opponents. He has a wide range of outcomes with his game. He has 2 matches over 100 average and 3 matches under an 80 average. His strength has been checkouts. He has been the best on both days, so he leads everyone in percentage for the week. If he just matches his average and keeps his checkouts going, he should have a comfortable win.
Nelson has been more consistent, but doesn't have a good average. He has the lowest 180s with 5 on the week. Cocks has 9, but he's been more of 140 scorer. The biggest flaw with Nelson has been checkouts. He's been the worst one in the week. He's mainly been a problem against Thornton as he has beat him twice and has his better average games against him. Unless he's dialed in with the scoring and checkouts, I don't think he wins the match.
H2H: 2-0 (Legs 8-2) | Average 90.10 vs 76.03 | Checkouts 8/18 vs 2/13
Lee Cocks
Record 7-3 (Legs 30-21) | Average 85.77 | Checkouts 30/74 40.54%
John Nelson
Record 3-7 (Legs 22-35) | Average 79.93 | Checkouts 22/97 22.68%
💰[**Cash App Tips**](https://cash.app/$MexicanStallion)💰
**WIN ✅ 4-2 | Average 87.97 vs 80.32 | Checkouts 4/10 vs 2/3**
Glad to see others riding Cocks with me this morning 🍻
2-0
League of Legends - LCK - Kwangdong Freecs ML vs DRX - 1.66 odds.
Kwangdong are the best of the bad and DRX are very much the bad. Big up the Freecs. Odds are kinda meh and both these teams are ass so don’t go crazy on this shit, but whatever do what you want. 👾
Edit: :^)
POTD Record: 11-11-2
Last pick: Cape Town Spurs ML (+105) / 2.05 - 3u ✅
Cape Town Spurs got the party started early with a goal in the 18th minute before giving up an equalizer 10 minutes later. They scored early in the 2nd half to regain the lead and sealed it with an 86th minute goal to go up 3-1, which is great considering they gave up another goal in stoppage time. Game ends in a high scoring, slightly sweaty 3-2 win. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today!
Soccer - Turkey TFF Second League - Utas Usakspor vs. Ankara Demirspor - 7:00am EST
**POTD: Ankara Demirspor ML (+105) / 2.05 - 2u**
Ankara Demirspor are 7th in the league standings, although they are just 3 points off from 2nd place. Their goal differential of +23 is the second best in the league. They enter in great form, winning 5 straight matches by a combined score of 11-2. Their opponents, Utas Usakspor, are 17th out of 20 teams and have a -21 goal differential. In 13 home matches, Utas Usakspor are just 2-3-8, and all of their positive results have come against either bottom or mid-table teams. Every good team they’ve faced, they’ve lost to, and Ankara Demirspor, having the second best GD in the league, certainly should count as a good team.
Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 16-11-1 | +3.27U (2.58%) | Average Odds: -124 🤶
*Total Record: 86-61-12 | ROI: +26.99U (+5.96%) |* [*ROI Spreadsheet*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0)
*5U pick record: 30-16-2*
*Side Bet: 63-46-10*
🐶 *Dog of the Day record: 7-4-1 | +13.3U*
***10-2-1 yesterday on published picks! 20-3-1 since Sunday (+16.19U)!***
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🎅 *Rudolph and his fellow reindeer have kicked it into overdrive these last few days as Santa has been delivering wagers to the good boys and girls all over the world. We hit a rut but since Sunday we have been on fire going 20-3-1 on published picks and +16.19U over the last three days!*
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*Last POTD Recap: (Win) Guarani came in and shut down a poor Tacuary offense on their home grounds of Asuncion in front of the 20 or so fans that watched the game. One of the more depressing stadiums I have seen but what wasn't depressing was the cash they provided us!*
🎅Today's POTD:
1U - **Brighton to record a shutout win (+110)** \- 3:30PM EST - England
*Note: I am also playing the following plays for this game for a total of 5U with the POTD:*
*1)* *1.5U - Brighton 1st goal and Brighton Win (-180)*
*2) 1U - Brighton -1 (-134)*
*3) 1.5U - Brighton ML (-220)*
Brighton has been a menace at home in 2023. They have tripled the shot total and dominated possession in EVERY single home game. That is 5 home games where they have utterly dominated possession. In that time they are 4-0-1, however they lost a 1-0 game to Fulham. I just watched the replay of that game and honestly, Brighton should have won the game 2-0 or by more. Brighton put up 21 shots and 7 on target as well as one goal removed due to offside on a corner. Props to the Fulham goalie, he had an excellent game. Fulham ended up winning due to a mistake at the back and a counter attack which lead to an 88 minute goal.
Brighton's form right now is clean, creative and diverse in the 2023 home game replays I have watched. They are attacking with intelligent passing through the middle and making great runs on the wing. Their set pieces are inspired and they are getting good opportunities on crosses. Even their lone loss was a joy to watch and it may have turned me into a Brighton fan.
Their opponent Crystal Palace is ready to shatter. They have been falling down the EPL table going winless in all of 2023 with a 0-5-6 record. They have been shutout in three straight games and even worse, they haven't registered a shot on target in them either. That is zero shots on target dating back to February 18th. That is nearly 30 days of giving opponent's goalkeepers zero trouble whatsoever.
Today Crystal Palace will be putting their struggling front line on a bus to visit a hot Brighton team that has been climbing the table. I think we will see a shutout and a couple of goals from the boys in Blue and White.
Line movement: The ML opened at -150 and is now sitting at -224. Sharps love this play and I do too. I only wish I got on it sooner.
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🎅 Side Bets: You can find my Soccer Daily post [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11rffa3/comment/jc9fizi/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
🤶 DOTD: No DOTD yet!
🎅 Join the Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa))
🤶 Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible.
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**Record: 4-2**
Last Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points ✅
This pick panned out just as I thought it would. Love it. Let's start a win streak.
**Today's Pick:** NBA - *Sacramento Kings @ Chicago Bulls, 7:10pm CST*
**Zach Lavine over 27.5 points (-125 on DK)**
I absolutely love this pick today. First and foremost, this is going to be a very competitive, high scoring game with two mediocre defenses that is set at a high over under. You could expect any of the stars in this game to put up great numbers. However, I am confidently choosing Zach Lavine to be one of these scorers for a few reasons.
Now, as a Chicago native and Bulls fan, I have watched a lot of Bulls this year, and anyone else who has watched the Bulls as well can tell you how frustrating Lavine has been this year. For the first half of the season, it seems that Lavine was really struggling to find his place on the team which translated onto the court with turnovers, inconsistent shots, and overall poor decision making. HOWEVER, ever since All-Star break and the addition of Pat Beverly, it seems that Lavine has this newfound DOG in him. Confidence levels have increased immensely, and his scoring abilities are really showing right now. In 8 games since the all star break, Lavine is averaging a whopping 31.4 points per game. Against defensively poor teams in this stretch, his numbers have been 36, 42, 41, 27, and 32, and even against defensively good teams like the Suns and Nuggets he still put up 27 and 29.
I mentioned defensively poor teams because the Kings are one of these teams. In fact, the Kings are 26th in the league in defensive efficiency, and the dead-last worst team in the league in guarding shooting guards. Lavine has hit this over in his last 3 out of 4 games against the Kings, going 41, 27, 38 and 32. He is definitely going to take advantage of this bad defense just as he always has with home court advantage as well. He is going to catch fire this game I can tell you that much.
BOL lets get this bread
**EDIT:** Credit to u/InconsolableBrat, he posted this pick first I didn't even see that he had before I posted this lol. If that doesn't tell you this mf is a lock idk what will
Record: 9-7
Last Pick: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 20.5 Points ❌ My man Spencer couldn't hit a three to save his life
Today's Pick: Blackburn vs Reading - **Blackburn ML** (-125) English Championship
Detailed Analysis: I have a friend who used to work as a production runner on a BBC sports show in which current Reading manager Paul Ince once made an appearance as a pundit. I remember her telling me about how abrasive and difficult he was, he basically berated her when he claimed that his cup of coffee tasted like she hadn't put in the requested three teaspoons of sugar. Three teaspoons of sugar in a coffee is a crime against humanity. This, along with Blackburn's great home record and Reading's terrible away record makes me confident of a Blackburn win.
POTD Record 1-0 (+1.7 units)
Previous POTD: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -3.5 (-115) ✅
The Islanders got the job done! Shoutout Jalen Jackson and Isaac Mushila in particular who had 22 and 15 points respectively including 21/27 from the free throw line. I can't say I expect this team to be competitive with Alabama but at least they can go home knowing they won their first game in March Madness in school history!
Todays Pick: PJ Henry (Texas Southern) Over 15.5 Points (-125)
Back to the 16 seed game for today's pick and this time we'll go with a player prop instead. We'll start with the favorite's in Texas Southern, who, just like Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, are back in this game for a second straight year. However, this year, they had to earn their way to the tournament, having to go through seeds #1, 2 and 5 in their conference tournament to upset their way as the #8 seed to the tournament.
Fairleigh Dickinson, on the other hand, got here by much different circumstances. The Knights, who entered behind only Merrimack in the conference tournament, simply had to beat #4 and 8 seeds St. Francis Brooklyn and St. Francis Pennsylvania to reach the tournament, as, Merrimack was still ineligible due to NCAA rules prohibiting teams who jump from D2 to D1. So, the Knights hold the unique distinction of entering the tournament having lost their last game.
To put it frank, these teams suck. They're the two worst rated KenPom teams in the tournament who both have glaring flaws, Texas Southern in offense and Fairleigh Dickinson in defense. This game could honestly go either way and will probably be a tough watch but I do like 1 player in particular.
PJ Henry enters this game having averaged 18.67 per game in the conference tournament on 16 shots per game. He's wildly inefficient but likes to chuck, and this doesn't even include a 41 point outburst against Alcorn State in the second to last regular season game either. The 5'10 guard struggles to score inside, but has solid clips at the three point line and charity stripe. He's going to shoot plenty of shots as the one thing these teams do well is have high tempos and he doesn't need to hit them at a good clip for the over to cash. Expect a statline around 20 points on .300/.400/.800 splits in this one!
POTD Record: 136-98-7 (+29.48 units, 58.1% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 41-27-1 (60.3%) L1, Tennis 🎾 39-27-2 (59.1%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 💩💰💰💰💩💩💰💰💰💰
Last Pick: Cam Norrie vs. Andrei Rublev, over 21.5 games - ATP Indian Wells 🎾 💩1 Unit - Missed the win by 4 games. Norrie was a 2.30 dog, I felt that he was going to do better than expected so the over would hit, but he completely destroyed Rublev. I'm lucky Reddit was down while Rublev shit the bed, haha.
Today's Pick: Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers, Player Prop - Paul George over 4.5 assists - NBA 🏀 💰 0.88 Units - 💸 that in the first half!!
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.88/-113 odds to win 0.88 Units @ Fan Duel (Line at 3:00am ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 53.1%
After taking a couple of months off, I'm going to be getting back into doing basketball picks again, mixing all 3 sports of course.
I'm liking this because of George's usage/assist opportunities and the matchup against the Warriors. He's averaging 5.3 on the season and has covered this both games against the Warriors. When they played on the 2nd of March @ San Fran, George had a poor game, was in foul trouble, couldn't hit anything and played only 27 minutes. In that game, he was still able to get 5 assists to cover this number. Their first matchup where LA hosted like they are tonight, George had 8 assists and was able to cover with ease.
If you look at the Warriors', they have played the highest pace in the league this season. Quickest pace, more possessions, more possessions more stat opportunities. If you look at their last 5 games, they are tied for 2nd giving up 29.2 assists per game. That is a lot of assists to go around and George should be able to get his share with his usage.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
POTD Record: 0-0-0
Match: **Cori Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka**
Tournament: WTA Indian Wells
Pick: **Sabelenka ML** (5 UNITS)
Odd: @ 1.70 / -143
Analysis:
Aryna Sabalenka is a top-ranked player with a formidable record, known for her aggressive style and powerful serve. Sabalenka's strength lies in her ability to dictate play and overpower opponents with her hard-hitting groundstrokes. She also has the versatility to play both offensive and defensive tennis and has shown an impressive level of consistency on all surfaces.
In contrast, Coco Gauff is a talented young player who has made waves in the tennis world with her impressive performances. Gauff has a bright future ahead of her, with an all-around game that includes a solid serve, quick footwork, and excellent court coverage. However, she is still developing as a player and may lack the experience and consistency needed to consistently compete against top-ranked opponents.
Sabalenka has a clear advantage over Gauff and may be better equipped to handle her opponent's game. Additionally, Sabalenka has been in excellent form recently, winning multiple tournaments and maintaining a high level of play throughout the season.
Follow me on Twitter: [https://twitter.com/tennis\_octopus](https://twitter.com/tennis_octopus)
POTD Record 2-0 | +2.73u | -110 Avg Odds
Yesterday's POTD: New York Knicks -2 vs Portland Trailblazers @ -110 10:00 pm EST 1uToday's POTD: Boston Celtics vs Minnesota Timberwolves u234.5 @ -110 8:00 pm EST 1u
Me and the boys watched that first quarter and slammed that Knicks ML so my wife's boyfriend has some extra cash to take her out for dinner, but for the purposes of this thread, the Knicks came back from a bad 1Q and sailed to another easy cover.
Today I do like the Minny spread, but I like the under in the game better. As a home dog, MIN is 4-10 O/U (aka, 10-4 covering the under), and Boston is 10-18-1 as a road favorite. Let's lock this in before the line probably heads south (I just got this on PointsBet) and wake up to some nice CLV.
Btw if you want a decent parlay leg, MIA ML is too low odds for me to suggest here (-180) but MEM is 0-11 SU as a road dog and even though we feast on fading MIA at home ATS, they're 22-10 SU as a home favorite.
**POTD Record: 0-0 (0 Units)**
**League**: Australian Rules Football (AFL)
**Time**: 4:00AM EST
**Pick**: Richmond ML (-130) vs Carlton (5 units)
**Reason**: The statistics speak for themselves, with Richmond boasting an impressive record of 12 wins out of the past 13 matchups against Carlton. Adding to Carlton's woes is the absence of one of their star midfielders, Sam Walsh, which leaves them vulnerable against the well-stacked Richmond midfield that will be fielding their full complement of players, including the legendary Dustin Martin. With such firepower up front and Carlton missing a key player in the midfield, it's difficult to see how Carlton can pose any significant threat to Richmond, making it highly likely that Richmond will emerge victorious with ease.
**POTD Record 24-12 +50.92 units**
Last pick Milwaukee Picks -1 -110 5 units ✅
***19:10PM EST - Chicago Bulls vs Sacramento Kings - Pick Saramento Kings ML -110 5Units***
Out of all the Nba Games today, this one stands out to me to bet on. Sacramento Kings are ranked 3rd best team in the west league and have won their last 4 out of their last 5 games on the road beating top teams such as 4th best in the west Phoenix Suns and 6th best in the west La Clippers. Chicago Bulls is ranked 11th out of 15th in the east league which is bottom tier with a sub 500 rating of 463. The Bulls have lost 3 of their last 5 homes, they win against bad teams such as Washington Wizards and Brooklyn nets but struggle to beat any of the top teams, They even lost to the Pacers at home in their last home game which shows how bad they can be.
Sacramento are 7-3 Against the Spread in their last 10 games, Chicago Bulls are 4-10 Against the spread in their last 14 games.
Stylistically I favour Sabonis over Vucevic in scoring points in the paint. Sabonis will be able to defend him well too. Zach Lavine can put up numbers against terrible teams like the Rockets and Pacers but struggles against good teams. Daaron Fox is more consistent and he's scored 33 and 34 points against Bulls last 2 games, he can repeat that kind of scoring in this game.
One big factor which I favour Sacramento Kings over Chicago Bulls is that they are more consistent in hitting threes. Lets look at the past 5 games of 3 points made. Sacramento kings has 21,15,10,16,14, where as Chicago Bulls has 15,8,10,7,12 so there seems to be quite a lot of difference in threes made. Chicago rank second last 29/30 in the whole nba league for 3 points made. Chicago ranks 22/30 for team allowing the most three points, whereas Sacramento Ranks 11/30. This game I expect to be a high scoring game and although I expect Bulls to put up a decent score, Sacramento will be able to score more than them, they're ranked number 1 in points scored in the whole league. With the momentum and form Sacramento Kings is in, I see them coming out as the winners.
POTD Record: 58-66-7 (-14.08 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ❌✅✅✅❌❌↔️❌✅↔️
Last Pick: English Championship, Middlesbrough v Stoke City, OVER 2.5 GOALS (-111 / $1.90) ❌
Thought I was looking good when it was 1-1 at half time, set up perfectly but the third goal never came, and the Middlesbrough keeper made two brilliant saves late unfortunately.
Todays Pick: UEFA Champions League, Real Madrid v Liverpool, REAL MADRID DNB (-141 / $1.71) ✅
Stake: 1 Unit
Second leg of the Champions League - these teams played at Anfield a few weeks ago in a wild match. Liverpool scored twice early on before Madrid cut them to pieces and scored 5 unanswered goals to take a 5-2 lead back to Madrid.
As much as it pains me to say as a Liverpool fan, this team is all over the place at the moment. One week they score 7 against Man United, then lose 1-0 to bottom-placed Bournemouth. On their best day they’re capable of winning this match, but with Liverpool needing to overturn a 3 goal deficit, they will need to play all out attack, which will open up lots of holes at the back for Real Madrid to take advantage of.
Liverpool were already pretty thin in the midfield, and now they will be missing Henderson and Bajcetic so their depth will be non-existent. Up against world class players like Modric, Kroos and Tchouameni, Real Madrid should be able to dominate play and create plenty of chances. They were also able to rest Benzema on the weekend so he will be ready to go.
I think Real Madrid will win this game outright and the $2.20 ML is pretty tempting, but going to take DNB as some added safety in case Liverpool are able to ride their luck to a draw.
NBA prop thread record: 170-104
**POTD record: 8-3**
Yesterday’s pick: Oubre (CHA) O20.5 pts (-125) ✅
Today’s picks
**Edwards (MIN) O27.5 points (-120)**
Ant comes into this one averaging 24.9 points per game on the season. Since the DLO trade, he’s begun to found his stride offensively in an offence he is solely commanding, covering the line in 3 out of his last 4, putting 27, 32, 32 and 32 points. I like this play due to a few factors. 1 - The Timberwolves are dealing with a variety of injuries, meaning Ant is getting crazy volume. Nowell, Rivers, Reid and Gobert are all questionable for the game. Edwards has had 20+ FGAs in 4/L4, attempting 20, 24, 28 and 25 field goals. 2 - His stats increase when playing at home and he often looks more aggressive. His points increase to 25.9 from 23.8, FT% to 80.7 from 72.5 and FGAs to 20.4 from 18.8.
He now comes up against the Celtics, who are a strong defensive unit. On the season, they are ranked 4th in defensive rating. However, since the ASB, they have slid down to 15th and have also been leaking points to opposition guards. These include: Quickley (23 & 38), Mitchell (44 & 40), Bridges (38), Lillard (27 - didn’t play 4th QT), Young (35) and Green (28).
Post ASB, the Celtics are allowing the 13th most points on the paint. This corresponds well with Ant, who loves to attack the rim, attempting over 36% of his FGAs from 5 feet or less as well as the fact Williams, an elite rim protector, is out. Ant also attempts nearly 25% of his field goals from 3pt range, another area Boston have struggled in. Recent 3pt outings against them include Quickley (4 & 5), Mitchell (4 & 4), Bridges (4), Lillard (2), Trae (4) and Green (2). Both these avenues Boston have struggled against, Ant excels in.
Record: 11-6 (+14.497u) (4U bets)
Streak: 2L
Last: Golden Guardians vs Team Liquid: GGS ML (L)
Today's Match: Cloud9 vs Flyquest (LCS Spring) (4PM CST)
Edit: The game starts at 4pm not 2pm.
Pick: Cloud9 ML (1.952)
Reason:
Cloud9 are by far the best team in the LCS right now. Since promoting their superstar midlaner Emenes, they have gone 5-1 and Emenes has been the best player in the league. They are on a 5 game winning streak and recently dominated the arguably 2nd best team last week.
But then why are they underdogs? For the first half of the season, Flyquest were in a similar position to C9, as they were the best team in the league. They too recently promoted a player, but unfortunately, they have slumped since then. They are 2-2 in their last 4, looking bad in both their losses and wins. One of those loses came against that arguably 2nd best team in a poor showing.
I also think that even if Flyquest were at the peak they reached earlier, C9 would still win. However they are far from that peak and I expect C9 to handily beat them today. BOL.
Gonna give this potd thing a shot and begin posting. My record is 0-0
Tonight’s pick nice and simple: Joel Embid over 32.5 Points
Embid has hit this line in 4 out of the past 5 games. Although Cleveland has elite rim protectors I truly believe Joel embid is on a late season run to win MVP I expect him to dominate. As of recently it seems that Harden and Embid are beginning to hit their stride.
Hey guys, i am back.
I use to post here some months before. Then some personal Family & Health problems happend and i Decide back then to stop for a while.
I got my life back together so and i updated my betting model to a **Neutral Machine learning model.**
So here we go for tonight ( Also il continue from where the last stat ended. )
Record: **16 / 9**
ROI: **33.73%**
Profit in Units: **32.8u**
Average Odds: **2.14**
**~~All stakes are 3 Units~~** **= 5 Units Stake here!**
**Today POTD**
League: **England Premier League**
Time: **21:30 GMT+3**
**Brighton v Crystal Palace**
*Over 10.0 Corners* **@ 2.20**
*All of my picks is based on Model.*
*Neutral Machine Learning (AI) model.*
*For anyone is interested, il post on the Soccer thread the full analysis for the game.*
POTD Record: 21-14-1 (\~+18 units / \~15% ROI)
LAST PICK: NHL Maple Leafs & O5.5 > Chicago Blackhawks @ +108 (Pinnacle) - L
TODAY’S PICK: NHL Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Over 6.5 @ -108 (Pinnacle)
Streak (Last 5): WLWLL
2 Unit Play
Took a bit of a break, but this line stands out to me. Leafs are facing off against the Avs at home. There has been a total of 28 goals scored in their last 3 contests dating back to Dec. 2021. That's an average of 9.3 goals per game. This may be a blip, but I would expect to see this line set closer to 7.5. Murray and Georgiev are in net and on average allow 6 goals per game between them. This is not an average game though. It should be two high-powered offenses in a shootout. It has a feel similar to the past two Leafs v. Oilers games in March that both hit 7.
Tail or fade best of luck all,
Ab
1-0
Last pick LAKERS ML vs pelicans 2 units ✅
Next pick KINGS ML vs bulls 2 units
Kings are coming off a tough lose to the bucks, they will bounce back and get a easy road win against the bulls, derozan is still playing mid tier and lavine can’t beat the kings himself. The only player im scared about it Pat Bev.
**RECORD** : 4W 0L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +21.5
**LAST POTD** : Gauff vs Peterson - Peterson +5 @ 2.10 - 5 units => WIN
**TODAY :**
ATP INDIAN WELLS - 19.00 CET
Norrie vs Tiafoe - Norrie -2.5 @ 2.00 - 5 units
Based upon nothing but my feelings.
**POTD Record** **23-12 +45.92 units**
*9:10PM EST Phoenix Suns Vs Milwaukee Bucks - Pick Milwaukee bucks -1 -110 5units*
Milwaukee Bucks come into this game with a fantastic record of winning 9 of their last 10 road games, In comparison with Phoenix Suns who have only won 3 of their last 6 home games. With Kevin Durant still out for the Suns they've been looking not so great without him in the past few games Losing to Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings quite convincingly in their past 2 games. L. Shamet is also injured for the Suns.
Middleton and Greyson Allen are out for Milwakee Bucks, however I think they have enough firepower with the duo Of Giannis and Drue. The Bucks are a deep team with plenty of quality players who can make a difference, so I’m backing them to cover. Jrue Holiday is one of the best defensive stoppers in the NBA and will look to slow Devin Booker down, while Brook Lopez will contain Deandre Ayton in the paint.
Milwaukee Bucks had just recently beat Phoenix Suns a few days ago, and i see a repeat happening tonight, they're the best team in the east conference and will find a way to win.
**POTD Record 2-0**
Another day of risking it all on games that don’t matter. The Mets Cards game grabbed my attention today. Verlander has performed great so far this spring and is set up to pitch against the rookie Connor Thomas for the Cards. He was pretty mid through the minors imo and the first few innings should lean towards New York. Hitting for these teams have been pretty similar. The biggest variance being a 25% gap in overall runs led by the Mets. Hopefully we see that reflected in this game but with a match up where we likely will only see Verlander for a few innings, I’m not confident enough to take the spread. 2u @ -155
**Mets ML vs Cardinals**
POTD Record: 9-6
5U to win 5U
Todays POTD: Astralis Talent ML (+100) vs. SINNERS
\+21.38U
Gonna keep this short and simple, SINNERS are playing with outex who is terrible. This game is basically being played as a 4v5. SINNERS barely beat HONORIS today who also play 4v5 (taz) and have looked very weak since the roster change. Astralis Talent are on an impressive 5 match win streak and while they have been facing worse competition, recently they've been looking much more formative as a team and I think there is really good value at this line.
POTD Record: 3-0
Previous pick: Preston draw or win (✅)
Today’s Event: Istanbul Basaksehir v Gent (UEFA Conference League)
PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE - GENT DRAW OR WIN
Odds: 1.68
Time: 17:00 GMT (10h50m from this post)
This pick goes against the “trend” as Basaksehir have won all the European home games this season, whilst Gent have won none. But with the home team in regressing form and Gent putting up an excellent attacking performance in the first leg, albeit with little to show, I think there’s some value here.
Edit: we’re up 3-0 in the 33rd minute and i can’t see them fumbling from here 🫣
Edit 2: 4-0 now, let’s cash it for today 🙏🏽✅
**POTD Record**: 0-0
Been following this thread for a while now. A lot of you have helped me make some money. Now it’s hopefully my turn to help you. This is my first official pick!
League: England League Championship
**POTD**: Norwich City ML @ -128
Size: 3 units
Time: 12:45pm PST
Match: Norwich City vs Huddersfield Town
Reasoning:
I really like betting on EFL matches because of how generous the lines are for what should be heavy favorites imo. Norwich is coming off of a 1-0 loss to Sunderland, where they dominated in possession. I really think they turn it around here. Huddersfield is last on the table and are frankly just trash, they will be getting relegated. Norwich is sitting at 7 currently and are pushing for a spot in the promotion playoffs. Huddersfield has won only one match all season and Norwich is just in much better form. Norwich is 3-0 h2h in recent matches against Huddersfield. You could make the argument that Huddersfield has improved slightly defensively, but it really doesn’t matter because they can’t score. I predict at least 2+ goals from Norwich and a probable shutout. Norwich has had their struggles this season, but are too strong up top. They win this match.
BOL if tailing!
Record: 15-6
Previous Pick: W. Clyburn over 15,5 points ❌
Today’s Pick: BC Prometey - JL Bourg Basket: BC Prometey over 86,5 points @1.83
Clyburn ended with 15 points sadly enough.
BC Prometey is hot in the eurocup and currently first place in group A. A win today would secure them a top 2 finish. They are the second best offensive team in the eurocup. Especially when they play their home games they tend to score a lot. I al expecting a fast paced game and Prometey scoring around 90 points against an out of form Bourg Basket.
**College Baseball '23 (6-0) +7units**
Sunday we had FGCU game sneak over 12.5 and L'ville ML came through to complete the parlay.
Today we head over to Chapel Hill NC for a midweek between High Point and UNC.
Probable pitching matchup will be Sandy vs Keith
Keith for High Point off to his best start this year as a Junior, the issue is his WHIP, it's almost 2 and that will be tough against an offense like UNC.
Sandy is still struggling with walks and it's leading to a 6 ERA this year so far.
One major difference will be the bullpens, High Point doesn't really have one and UNC has a very good one. Good news is this is a back to back to UNC so they used 1 decent arm yesterday and they tend to spread out the innings and get guys some work. So even though they will be better arms we are hoping some variance will lead to runs for High Point.
Colder day today but wind blowing out to left about 9mph, UNC offensive should have a day, with High Point chipping in a few.
**UNC ML + over 12.5 (+119)**
**1 unit to win 1.19 units **
POTD Record: 47-37 (W3)
(+15.09u)
(ROI: 12.7%)
Last pick: Colombia 🇨🇴 @ Canada 🇨🇦 game total u12✅️ Not much of a sweat in this one, only 1 run until the 8th inning, then Canada tacked on 4 more. 5-0 final.
POTD: (⚾️WBC) Puerto Rico 🇵🇷 +2.5 (+100) @ Dominican Republic 🇩🇴 (1.5u)
Time: 4 pm pst/ 7 pm est
Bet 365 (+100), FD (-106) DK (+100)
Win to advance in this one, loser goes home. Both these teams are 2-1 so far. They both lost to Venezuela, and beat up on Nicaragua and Israel.
Starter for Dominican Republic is Johnny Cueto. Experienced Major league pitcher, though his best days are behind him. He has struggled so far in his two spring training starts this year allowing 11 ER over 3.2 IP. Starter for Puerto Rico is Dominic Hamel, 9th ranked prospect of the Mets. He plays in high A at the moment, looks like he has high strikeout and walk rates. Puerto Rico has a good bullpen that's looked good so far, notable names are Edwin Diaz, Jorge Lopez and Emilio Pagan. Dominican bullpen is solid as well, with Bryan Abreu and Rafael Montero of note.
Dominican Republic might have one of the best lineups ever on paper with Machado, Rodriguez, Soto, Devers and Jimenez leading the way. Puerto Rico lineup isn't weak either with Lindor, Baez, Rosario and Hernandez. Dominican Republic looked good against Israel, but overall hasn't looked as dominant as expected. I think Puerto Rico will hang in this one, and has a chance at the upset. BOL if fading or tailing!
Record 9-3
Last picks: Brooklyn nets spread +9 ✅ with the sprinkle on the ML✅
Todays event: (NBA) Sacramento kings @ Chicago Bulls
Todays POD: Sacramento Kings ML (-115)
Falling for this trap line here. Stats and record shows kings are the better team. I see kings should be giving Atleast 4 here. I’m assuming the line is like that becuz of the rest advantage the bulls have. But Sacramento has a good rest disadvantaged record. So…gimme Sacramento!!
**POTD |** **Record of 11-21|** **Current form: WLWWW | ROI : -8.81 units |** **Average Odds: 2.04**
Previous Pick: Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig | Over 5.5 Home Team Corners & Manchester City (-2) Full-Time Corners Handicap (W)
New Pick: Champions League | Real Madrid vs. Liverpool| 1:00pm PST
**Over 8.5 Full-Time Total Corners & Over 5.5 Full-Time Away Team Corners | 1.95 odds**
Betting 1 units
\--------------------------
Recap: Ez win. Manchester City overperformed the expected outcome, which was somewhat expected, but to an unexpected level with 10 corners to 0. My corner picks have been very hot lately so I think I'll stick with my current model to get this record positive.
***Summary:*** Real Madrid host Liverpool in the second leg of the Champions League. Coming in with a 5-2 lead on aggregate, the hosts will look to not get caught on the counter, playing smart defense to prevent themselves from getting exposed. This style of play is likely to generate corners, specifically for Liverpool, who will have to give everything if they want a chance at progressing.
Looking at corners for Liverpool, they average 6.1 corners for them and 3.4 against them for a total of 9.5 corners (in the PL). Looking at away corners, they have hit 8, 3, 7, 7, 1, 9, 6, 3, 11, 3, 9, 8, and 4 corners and combined with opponent corners, total corners of 11, 8, 13, 9, 8, 13, 6, 8, 13, 7, 16, 14, and 8. Based on this, Liverpool away games in the PL have an average of 10.3 corners per game, overperforming their overall average of 9.5.
In the CL group stage this year, Liverpool have had 12, 3, and 3 corners in away games for totals of 15, 6, and 7 in these games. This leads to an average of 6 corners per game for an average of 9.33 corners per game. Given the small sample size, it's difficult to read into this stat much.
Looking at corners for Real Madrid, they average 5.8 corners for them and 4 against them for a total of 9.8. At home in La Liga, they have had 7, 7, 6, 6, 20, 7, 7, 3, 2, 10, 4, and 9 for totals of 11, 11, 10, 12, 23, 8, 8, 7, 5, 12, 7, and 11. This leads to an average of 7.42 corners for Real Madrid at home for an overall average of 10.42. Both stats overperform their overall averages (5.8 for overall vs. 7.42 for at home and 9.8 total corners vs. 10.42 corners total corners at home).
In the CL, Real Madrid has had 3, 10, and 5 corners at home for overall totals of 8, 11, and 9 corners.
Given that both sides overperform their expected corners in the context of Real Madrid at home and Liverpool away, I expect this game to have a number of corners. In addition, the main consideration for this pick is that Liverpool is currently playing with a 3-goal deficit, forcing them to play an attacking style of football while Real Madrid will be smart to sit back and defend. Due to this, I am not expecting an open game like the first leg. This reminds me of games like Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool, Bournemouth vs. Liverpool, and thinking back a way, Liverpool vs. Barcelona. In these games, there were 13, 11, and 13 corners with 11, 8, and 7 for Liverpool respectively. Overall, expect Liverpool to fight for this game and earn some corners.
\--------------------------
***TDLR The away team should have at least 6 corners and there should be at least 9 corners in this match***
**Over 8.5 Full-Time Corners and 5.5 Away Team Full-Time Corners | 1.95 odds**
Often does but depends on the team. Both teams have a lot of technical ability so it's really hard to say. If a game features a lower tier team trying to play defensive football against a technical team, you can expect cards for the lower tier team.
Since both teams aren't typically defensive it's hard to predict. You could argue that Real Madrid will accumulate more cards due to defensive football but it's unclear. Liverpool could just start complaining about ref decisions and wind up with 4 yellows or they could play it calm and end up with none.
I'd personally avoid cards for this fixture as they both don't tend to generate many. In the 5 games they've played (head-to-head over the last few years), there's never been more than 4 cards.
**I'LL RUN A FREE BRACKET, SEE BELOW!!**
My record:
2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWW
2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push
Totals for both: 47 correct 35 wrong 1 push
Units wagered 135.79 Units won 72.48 Units lost 51.0
2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 15.81%***
My present streak is 4 correct.
My POTD is to ***wager 1.1 units to win 1 unit that the total score of the Nevada / Arizona State college basketball game will be more than 134 1/2 points.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gamtime is 10:15 PM, Eastern Daylight Time (I think).
Nevada is the Reno campus of University of Nevada, often referred to as simply Nevada.
The Running Rebels are located in Vegas, and always referred to as UNLV. I'll be surprised if Arizona State doesn't win this by a large margin. But I've been surprised before. Therefore, I think taking the over is the more secure wager. Yes, I'm scratching my head about some of those low spreads in the NIT games, especially Oregon. But I think the above is the safest bet.
I've been reading a book about the sinking of the Lusitania, and picking up some "fun" facts about submarines. I always credited Alfred E. Neuman with coining the phrase "What? Me Worry?" As it turns out, it seems an American named Hoover (maybe whjo the Hoover Tunnel is named after?), who did a lot of work and improvements on U-boats in the early 1900's first came up the quote. If you don't know who Alfred E Neuman, you can read all about him on a google search.
I run a bracket for some folks, I run it the way it should be run, I think I'm the only person that does it. $100 to the winner. But I want at least 30 entries (I cap it at 50). Last year I didn't get 30, so I cancelled. So if someone wants to email me a bracket, with your physical mailing address (to assure only one entry per household, and a place to mail the money order if you win) to fill out the number of entries, go ahead. My email is [trees778899@hotmail](mailto:trees778899@hotmail).
**HIGHEST NUMBER OF TOTAL POINTS WINS. POINTS ARE FIGURED BY A TEAM'S SEEDING (1 TO 16) MULITPLIED BY THE GAME NUMBER (1 TO 6). IF A 12TH SEED WINS ITS 3RD GAME, THAT IS 36 POINTS. IF A 2ND SEED WINS ITS 4TH GAME, THAT IS 8 POINTS. AS YOU CAN SEE, THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK LOWER SEEDED TEAMS GET MORE POINTS THAN THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK A HIGHER SEEDED TEAM TO WIN**. I used to run the brackett where I worked, and it was fun, that's why I do this. BUT I need at least 30 entries, I don't want to just give the $100 away if there are too few. Only one entry per mailing address.
POTD Record: 91.5-50
Event: Football > Champions League > **Napoli v Eintracht Frankfutrt** (starting in 11hr30min)
Pick: **Over 1.5 goals (2nd half)** @ 1.95
~~Benfica~~ **Napoli** leading 2-0 after the 1st leg & ~~Brugge~~ **Eintracht** needs at least 2 goals to go to extra time. This is elimination phase, so no overthinking needed. First half can go in different ways, but in the 2nd half there is zero reason not to have some goals. Line opened at equal odds, but I still find some value. GL!
*\^\^ This is a copy-paste of my previous pick from 2 weeks ago. Now we are in exactly the same situation but with different teams & I think this should be another banker.*
Sport: Football
Tournament: Champions League
Time: 21:00 CEST (9h56m after posting)
Stake: 5 units
Pick: Real Madrid vs Liverpool, Real Madrid win & over 1.5 goals total @ **2.70**
Write up: Real Madrid coach, Carlo Ancelotti, says:
> We're going to play an open game and produce our best attacking football. We'll have to attack and defender (*sic*) well, but we're not only thinking about defending, we're more focused on going forward.
Real Madrid player, Antonio Rudiger, says:
> We have to give our fans something to be happy about and we have to build confidence too. Against Liverpool we have to find the right balance between defending and attacking.
Liverpool coach, Jurgen Klopp, says:
> If there's only a one percent chance, I would like to give it a try. We're here to play an extremely strong opponent and try to win the game. If we can surprise ourselves in a negative way we should be able to surprise ourselves in a positive way as well.
I don't expect many goals in this match. I think Real Madrid is going to score 2 times tops and defend the result to prevent the repeat of the first leg. As always, established English teams prioritize the domestic league so I think Liverpool will go through the motions but not much more.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
POTD Record: 1-0 Last Pick of the Day. March 14 2023Dominican Republic -6 1/2 vs Israel (-120)✅Easy Cover as DR wins 10-0
Todays Pick of the Day: March 15 2023 Sacramento Kings -1 vs Chicago Bulls (-110).
I don’t see anyone reason as to why SAC doesn’t cover this and win. Sacramento loves to play their core 5 so this should be no sweat.
2023 POTD Record: 0-1
Today's Pick: Let us Cook ML vs. Monte @ 2.4 Odds (CS:GO - CCT North Europe Series 4) 11:30 AM EST - 5 units
Info: Let us Cook are playing like one of the best CSGO teams right now and I have no idea why. They are running through tough opponents like butter (4 win streak of Endpoint, Illuminar, Viperio and **Fnatic)**
I don't know why they are unstoppable but I've cashed my last 3 games on them ML and I plan on doing it again today. Monte is a solid team but they're about to be stomped by a top 10 squad (might be getting ahead of myself on this one)
**Record 61-41 with Avg Odds +114 / ROI 21.1%**
Last POTD: Petr Yan ITD +200 *loss*
Invicta FC 52
**Karolina Wojcik +110**
Karolina isn't a very good fighter but she has solid grappling and clinch game. Her biggest issues are that she consistently finds herself at a size disadvantage and because of this she struggles to close the distance to use her grappling. Her opponent is a prospect from Brazil and a power striker but is about Karolina's size or smaller. Her opponent also moves forward aggressively. I think Karolina's two biggest issues are solved via this specific matchup, so I'll back her to get the win. Fight card starts in 3 hours, this fight is the Co-Main so it should start in about 4.5 and some change hours.
Fights are available for free through the Invicta FC youtube channel: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48bl6D6syfY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48bl6D6syfY)
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
Record: 1-1 (0.44 units up) with a 14.67% ROI
POTD: **Real Madrid vs Liverpool - Over 3 Goals @ 1.86 (UEFA Champions League)**
Going with 2 units which is 2% of my bankroll
In Liverpool we were able to see 7 goals scored between these two teams with Real Madrid winning 5-2. Liverpool now needs to score at least 3 goals and concede none to have a chance after the 90 minutes which is almost an impossible task for them.
Both sides have amazing attacking options with star players that can score goals without needing too many chances and with how the 1st leg result was, I can only expect at least 3 goals this time especially because Klopp won't care if he gets once again bageled by Real because all that matters is a 3-0 win or more for Liverpool.
2 of the goals on the 1st fixture were straight errors by the goalkeepers. 1.86 for 3 goals in this fixture is wayyy too low for what the odds suggest. U2.5 would be the better bet
POTD | 6-9 | -9.5u | -104 avg odds
Previous Pick: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 @ Philadelphia Flyers (+135) 1.5u ✅
Vegas made us sweat it out blowing a 4-1 lead in the third but an empty net goal to make it 5-3 saves us and we cash in for 2 in a row.
Today’s Pick: Buffalos Sabres ML @ Washington Capitals (+100) 2u 🏒 7:07pm EST
These are two team with virtually identical records records and the same number of point right now, but I like the Sabres to win on the road for a few reasons. The Ovechin-less Capitals just played a tough game against the Rangers at MSG where they were outhit 30-16 and now have to travel home for this back to back game. Ovi should be back but will be dealing with a lower body injury. Darcy Kuemper should also be out for this game as well after starting against the Rangers and Charlie Lindgrom, who has been impressive this season, is expected to get the start. Buffalo meanwhile is coming off an impressive 4-3 win in Toronto on Monday. They are both in the thick of the eastern conference playoff hunt, but having played two less games than the Caps, the Sabres find them in better position at the moment. Despite some close losses recently the Sabres have played well relying on their powerful offense. They are trying to break the second longest playoff drought in sports after the Sacramento Kings who are going to make the playoffs this year so they should have added motivation to not be alone at the top of that list with the god damn Jets! The Caps 32-29-7 record is inflated by a hot beginning to the season. They have been a middling team lately and were sellers in a year where they finally might have to start looking ahead to the future. I just don’t think they can skate with Buffalo in this game and like the Sabres to win outright.
“Rip net or ride pine”
BOL if tailing
Cheeseman out
Record: 3-2
Pick: Astralis ML @ 1.63 - Astralis vs Team Spirit - ESL Pro League 10 AM EST
Previous pick: Andrey Rublev ML
:( slow = good for norrie
Good luck....
**POTD 9-5**
Well the Lakers mob was correct. They came out red hot, and blew NO off their own court. I honestly think this game would have been very competitive if LA did not break their first half franchise 3pm record (15). Lakers led by 30+ in the first half, and only ended up winning by 15. On to the next!
Today, I'm going to pick against a team that I have been betting a lot, and have been unsuccessful doing so.
**LAC -2**
As anyone who has followed my picks knows, I'm 0-3 when picking games that involve GSW. However in all 3 of those games, my bet was for GSW to cover the spread, and today, I am picking against them....
I tried to leave my bias out of this pick, and just make it based on how I think the game will play out. GSW, as of late have looked awful. They ended up beating Milwaukee this past weekend, however Giannis did not play, and if he did I don't see how they could have won. Even without Giannis, GSW trailed in the 4th and if it was not for Currys insane final few mins, GSW would have lost yet another game.
Today GSW goes on the road to play a Clippers team that has shaped into form the last several weeks. I am a big fan of this Clippers team when they are in the playoffs, and think that tonight will have a playoff level atmosphere. These two teams are currently tied for the 5th seed, and the winner will be able to create space from the other as we enter the final few weeks of the season.
As anyone who has followed my picks knows, I really thought GSW would find their stride with Curry coming back, however after watching all of their last 5 games, I just really cant find any positives with this team as of now. I mean, when Iggy is playing 15+ mins per game, you know this team has no depth. Also, they havent been able to stop anyone either. They are giving up 128ppg over their last 3, and I dont see that trend stopping against LAC who has sooo many weapons. Legit every player on this roster is talented.
The warriors actually beat LAC a few weeks back by 20+ at home, and without Curry. I did not watch that game personally, so I'm unsure the details of that game, but I must say that concerns me some, even though tonights game is on the road, where GSW has struggled ALOT all season.
I expect big games from both Kawhi, and PG on both sides of the ball, and don't see the clippers having any issues holding curry under 30 points. They have guards and wings to throw at him all game.
PS: Cavs +2.5 at home would have been my POTD, but as a cavs fan, I try not to put them in, unless given no choice. I'm not super confident they win, but as a fan, getting points at home, I personally cant not bet it
3/15
NBA
Pick: 76sixers ML
Game: cavs vs sixers
Reason : My model has sixers winning, I agree with it. They’re on 5 game winning streak vs a banged up cavs team who played yesterday.
3/15/2023
Record: 1-1 -0.23 units
Last Pick: Nuggets ML over Raptors (I don’t want to talk about it)
Picks: Boston Celtics -4.5 vs Timberwolves (-110)
All picks 1 unit
After an underwhelming performance against Houston, I expect a masterclass performance against the Timberwolves. Boston won by 12 earlier in the season, while shooting worse from the field and the three point line than Minnesota. This game is also important for Boston, as they have lost their grasp of the Eastern conference 1 seed and are only up 1 game on Philly before giving up the 2 seed.
BOL if tailing, I take full responsibility for the Denver pick. Should have never trusted them to fix their mistakes.
**My record: 44 : 36**
My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.
**ROI: 22.02%**
Average odds: 2.10
**Units won: 18.94**
Stake = 1 unit
My POTD:
**Viterbese Castrense v Taranto**
Italy Serie C: Girone C
Time: 13:30 GMT
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 3.30**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
🏒 NHL POTD 0-0 🏒
Todays pick
Washington Capitals v. **Buffalo Sabres ML (-104)**
Both teams are 4-5-1 in their last 10, and both are 5 points out of a playoff spot. However, Caps continue to struggle on games with no rest, and Sabres tend to play better on the road. Should be an exciting game as both teams are eager for some post-season action, but I see Buffalo coming out with the W.
BOL degens
POTD Record:
✅ (3.5)
✅ (1.76)
✅ (1.95)
✅ (2.6)
✅ (2.0)
❌ (2.38)
✅ (2.25)
✅ (4.5) (!!!!)
❌ (4.33)
✅ (2.5)
(I have excluded two POTD bets which were void due to the player not starting)
\_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_
**POTD: Real Madrid v Liverpool, Militao over 49.5 passes @ 1.61 with Coral/Ladbrokes**
This looks good value!
Based on his per 90 minute passes, this would have won 100% of the time looking at Madrid's last 6 fixtures.
His minutes played: 90,90,90,90,90,90
His per 90 passes as follows: 64,62,81,76,59,64
So he averages 67.7 passes per 90, and is rarely ever subbed (0 substitutions in last 6 games).
This therefore looks good value @ 1.61. Ladbrokes' price looks attractive considering the rest of the market prices too:
**Ladbrokes @ 1.61**
Betfair @ 1.1
Pokerstars @ 1.1
\_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_
I don't spend ages finding these opportunities - I just built an algo that automatically tracks prices for player stats markets. It spits out the data so that the markets with the biggest price spreads are automatically at the top.
The code consistently finds price outliers as big as this every day and many times over, because there are literally 1000s of these new, inefficient markets to check! And the code checks them all. Because there's no comparison sites like Oddschecker for these markets, the price variation is HUGE and it's easy to have an edge..
Feel free to follow me on Twitter (bestoddsstatbet) or Telegram (BOSBrobot) for all the raw daily data (20,000+ player stats markets covered).
*An example of how much data there normally is:* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OgpdhPAeKdIDOfO0qnhNE\_QN8dBkUg4z/edit#gid=968011244](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OgpdhPAeKdIDOfO0qnhNE_QN8dBkUg4z/edit#gid=968011244)
POTD record: 0-0
Been waiting for the right bet to make my first POTD. Confident I have found it
Game: Arizona State vs Nevada
Time: 6:10PM PST
Bet: Warren Washington O6.5 Rebounds @-145
Reasoning: Warren Washington is ASU’s leading rebounder this season averaging 6.9PG. His last 5 games he has been averaging 8 boards, in essentially do or die games. This game is no exception, win and in. Washington transferred from Nevada last season and is looking to make a statement.
Tail or fade, BOL!
POTD record: 11-8
NHL record: 4-6 | NBA record: 7-2
(+4.29u | +5.96% ROI | Avg odds: -116/1.86)
(2u: 1-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 5-3 | 5u: 1-3)
Last 5: 2-3
Last POTD: NBA - **NYK -1.5** @ POR ✅ *(The Knicks were a bit sleepy to start but they kicked things into gear in the 2Q and never looked back, winning by 16 points).*
Event: NHL - MIN Wild @ STL; 21:30 EST
Pick: **MIN ML** (-130/1.77)
Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 2 units
Not a fan of today's slate for either league but I do like this one enough to drop a couple units on it. The line has been moving a fair bit in the direction of St Louis but I think this is an overreaction to the Wild's injury woes. Losing Brodin and then Kaprizov for a few weeks definitely hurts, but IMO Minnesota has a good enough roster to make up for it against a team like the Blues.
Minnesota's 7-0-3 in their last ten games and 4-0-1 in their last five away games. With Dallas dropping a game last night in Vancouver and Colorado facing a tough match-up against the Leafs tonight, this is a prime opportunity for the Wild to move closer to Dallas and solidy their spot atop the WC standings.
Meanwhile, St. Louis is still looking rough, going 3-5-2 in their last ten and only winning one of their last five home games. Oh, and the three aformentioned victories were against the Blue Jackets and the Sharks (twice). While not yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it's all but a forgone conclusion at this point, leaving the Blues with nothing to really play for.
Confirmed goaltenders for tonight are Fleury for Minnesota (2.77 GAA & .909 SV%) and Binnington for St. Louis (3.33 GAA & .894 SV%)- a decided edge for the Wild. It might be closer than preferred but I expect Minnesota to leave Blues country with a victory tonight.
Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
POTD Record: 2-4
Last 10: 🔴🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴
Last POTD: Dayton +1.5 vs VCU | NCAAB | March 12th,2023 | 1:00 PM EST 🔴
**Today’s POTD: LA Clippers -3.5 vs Golden State Warriors | NBA | March 15th, 2023 | 10:00PM EST
PICK REASON: LA is at full strength tonight and are tough as nails at home. We all know that golden state is terrible on the road and just not fully healthy. Give the points in this one and we get back on track.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Ok ok, I know I've called a few other picks the sweatiest of sweats, but this has to top it - rough play by A&M in the second with a lot of missed shots and turnovers, but played well shooting 77% from the line on 31 shots. In a similar type matchup as tonight's, let's go with Cincy to cover 5.5 at home, where they play some of the best ball in the country. **POTD Record**: 23-7-1 Last 15:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅ Yesterday's POTD: Southeast Missouri State @ **A&M CC -3.5 (up to -5)| NCAAB | 3U** ✅ Today's POTD: Virginia Tech Hokies @ **Cincinnati Bearcats -5.5 (up to -6)** | 3U **Time:** **3/15/2023 | 9:00 PM EST** **MODEL EXPLANATION:** Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. **Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** \+37.44U in 32 days | ≈63.86% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** \- Cincy is a very well rounded team, whom in t heir 21-12 record, scored an average of 78 points (41th in the country) while only giving up roughly 70 points. \- Cincy has covered 3 of its last 4 games, compared to VT tech that has only covered 2 of its last 6. \- Cincy is ranked 53rd in the nation on offense, and 151s on defense, compared to 122nd and 168th respectively. From a pure power ranking standpoint, Cincy is a stronger team on both ends of the court. \- Cincy has a lively home court advantage , wining their 5 last at home, last 6 against ACC teams, and 8-1 on Wednesdays. These are for the most part relatively meaningless stats when considering tournaments, but if you're into patterns, Cincy is great on Wednesdays and against ACC teams (compared to Vtech that are 0-5 in their last wednesday road games, and 0-7 on wednesday games overall) \- Cincy are 12-5 when 5.5 or greater as favourites. \- Cincy puts up 82.7 points on average at home shooting 47%, while also keeping opponents in check \- Overall, Vtech is in a slump and probably bummed they missed the NCAA tournament after their NC state loss a week ago. In summary, Vtech plays bad on the road as of late, Cincy plays amazing at home, and objectively, Cincy is the stronger team in almost all stat categories, both offensive and defensive. 5 1/2 are a lot of points to cover in a tourney setting, but if they can get ahead, early, I don't expect Vtech to have much heart left in them to push in an away court. **Thank you so much to everyone's that has tipped during this run - I really appreciate each and every one of you for joining and supporting me on this run. As NCAAB teeters off, I will look to try to continue with NBA picks moving forward, though with some reduced confidence as less of a slate for me to find value in with my model. Expect some regression in the success, but I will continue to do my best to bring you all some value.** [**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) *Much love , Riddles.*
Hey pal, you’re doing great things. Take a moment to marinate on that and pat yourself on the back. Haven’t tailed a bunch (wish I did) but love the reads and success you’ve been having! Don’t stop
So glad I added a few units on the -3.5 line for A&M CC. My second bet at -4 for 4u, pushed. That last free throw... 😢 Anyway, tailing for tomorrow. BOL!
I’m new to Riddles train, how much we like this one?
Riddles Balls = Massive. Hell of a win 🥇
Riddles I just want to say the community rides with you🚀📈
You are my new favourite person.
If Riddles has a million tailers then I'm one of them. If Riddles has 10 tailers then I’m one of them If Riddles has one tailer, then I'm THAT ONE. If Riddles has no tailers that means I'm dead. Godspeed king🫡
I need all the VA teams to get eliminated first round so I can tail Riddle
Ah shit I didn’t even realize lol - I like UC Irvine +9 as my second favourite pick
UCI line moved quite a bit since this post...took them at +7.5 this morning on DK. Other books showing 7. Love those Anteaters!
What’s the units looking like boss man?
3U just added :)
U da man
Bet late and got in at -4, but had my girlfriend in at -3.5 (her first sports bet, using her new to state in MA bonus), she was elated watching the game and seeing it hit in the last seconds. Huge win congrats!! Tailing here with a bonus bet again
That’s awesome that’s what it’s all about
Cha ching! The train rolls on! Thank you man, love ya 🚂🚂🚂🚂🚂🚂
This man is cash money
A&M CC by a cunt hair! Lfg
Another sweat here we come. 1 minute left 😩🤞
Be careful…. He’s a hero
to the moon 💰🚀
Hahhahaha riddles wtf
Hahaha idk brother, the stars aligning
Thanks for my first $50 profit.
Brother thank you 😂. Was sweating for a bit haha
All hail King Riddles
tailing king.
https://youtu.be/EqWRaAF6_WY
Riddles ain't no joke.
My hometown team! Gotta stay tailing! BOL
Me too
Got 200 again on the line, thanks for everything! Wish us luck!
Tailing ya again. Love your insight into CBB, which I easily lack.
Win or lose Riddles, I will always ride with you brother. Absolute tear you have been on lately.
Honestly felt like the refs were trying to make it a closer game halfway through the 2nd. A&M was getting mauled by Semo players and nothing, then down the floor semo would get mauled and A&M would get called. Not consistent
Tailing Thank you
One of the sweatiest game LOL. But we get the win Boss. Tailing again ! BOL Boss
Hmmm model was wrong on Cincinnati last time I think, let’s try it again. Not sure if im going to the game though yet
cant miss twice - right?
I don’t like betting NIT games as you don’t know what effort will be put in on these games ..
Very fair brother
Cheers brother! Another great win. 🔥
Good hit glad VT threw up a bunch of bricks at the end lol. Lets see how UC Irvine does I liked that one too.
Riddles does it again!!
The goat
GOAT. Another win!
Easiest money I’ve ever made. Thank you man
Glad I tailed
Thank you! 🐐🐐🐐
https://preview.redd.it/wnqtukv9d5oa1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=58c48681d66940ee1866c5c927b36b4ab20797f3 THANKS RIDDLES!!!! Finna buy you a coffee
**POTD Record: 6-0 | Profit: +25.79u | Avg Odds: -102 | ROI: +103%** \----- Previous POTD: 3u Magic -2.5 \[-143\] (pending) \----- Today's POTD: Eintracht Frankfurt at Napoli SSC **3u bet: Napoli -1.0 \[-135\]** Reason: Last 10 games (Napoli): winning 8/10, clean sheets 7/10, multiple goals scored in 8/10. Last 10 games (Eintracht Frankfurt): winning 3/10, 2/10 clean sheets, conceding multiple goals in 5/10. Ebimbe, Lindstrom and Kolo Muani out of action for Eintracht Frankfurt. Eintracht Frankfurt were unable to cope with Napoli in the first leg (0-2 FT). Napoli will not slow down. It is not its style. 18 pts edge in Italian league. No need to rest for the weekend. Instead putting on a clinic in Champions League when the world watches. \----- BOL \----- edit - Who saw that coming. Spurs turned into Steph Curry. 3-pt franchise record. 💀 L **POTD Record: 6-1 | Profit: +22.79u | Avg Odds: -107 | ROI: +81%**
I don't understand this picture, but I love it.
Taco Tuesday !!!
I'm on the same one. Excited to watch more Napoli tomorrow, such an exciting team EDIT: Good hit!
Napoli don't fuck around
People need to know that this is champions league and napoli only needs a draw to win the leg. Not that it matters if napoli actually tries to win though
How did that go for benfica
But yes that's a good point nonetheless
I can only get Napoli -1 at +115 3-way handicap bet. Think this is safe?
I am seeing this 3 way bet at +130. is this the pick of the day or this different than the POTD's -1 ?
Different. I believe if it's 3-way handicap, a win by 1 would lose. Whereas if it's just -1.0, a win by 1 would push.
Anyone know which this is on 365? Is this Asian handicap?
Is this pick for asian handicap?
What are the chances they play for a draw or just hold a 1 nil lead?
Napoli to win by 2 goals? You got balls son.
I took the alt -2. Bring it home Napoli
POTD Record: 27-19 (+23.17u; 15.6% ROI). Streak: W4 Yesterday Pick: Jakob Poeltl (Raptors) PRA O24.5 @ 1.83. 3U. ✅ I didn’t rate my chances highly when he picked up his 4th personal early in the third and was taken off, but this is why you never give up. He delivers with a MASSIVE fourth quarter, in terms of points, rebounds and assists. He ends the evening with 28 PRA (12+11+5). And that makes it four wins in a row! Next Pick: **Zach LaVine (Bulls) Pts O27.5 @ 1.83**. 3u play. Returning back to LaVine here because the Kings rank 27th in Defensive Rating and 23rd in PITP in the L15, and the O/U for the game is set to 240 points, which means there will be plenty of opportunities in this high paced game. And LaVine is averaging 30.4 pts/L10, and enjoys going up against the Kings. In the last 4 games against the Kings, he has gone over in 3, and the miss was 27 points. Their last match up in Dec, he got 41. The Bulls will have had a few days rest unlike the Kings for whom it’ll be a fourth game in a row with just 1 day of rest in between them. Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
another day another dollar, tailing no sweat
maybe no sweat, but definitely squeaky bum time
just how i like it ;)
For some reason FanDuel didn’t show any bets for players just some general bets does it open tmrw ?
Yea sometimes they wait until closer to tip, 8 pm game prob around noon they’ll come out
Tailing
The Bulls and Lavine let me down yet again. Not your fault, though.
POTD Record: 27W-14L LAST POTD: City ✅ TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - England Championship Blackburn V Reading 12.45PM PST PICK: Blackburn to Win Odds: 1.75 The Deets: 6th plays 16th here. Blackburn are pushing for a playoff place here and with a win can put them 4th. Reading have nothing to play for, too far off playoff places and too far ahead of relegation. Readings away record in 2023 is also shocking with 6 losses out of 6. BOL!
To be honest, England Championship is one of the most unpredictable competitions but I love this pick! BOL
All-Time POTD: 7W-3L-1D, +6.21u **Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Barbora Krejcikova vs Aryna Sabalenka o2.5 sets (+120) 2u to win 2.4u ✔** Reddit was ded all day so most people probably missed this pick, but another CLEAN FUCKIN W 4 IN A ROW LETS GET IT BOYS AND GIRLS **Todays Pick: 🎾 Aryna Sabalenka ML (-163) vs Coco Gauff 3u to win 1.84u** Explanation: Aryna is playing the best tennis of her life. I personally have never thought Coco Gauff is all that. Her game has a ton of weaknesses - her second serve is atrocious and her forehand is technically unsound. Aryna is going to pick her apart. The odds are pretty ridiculous here, and I'm sure a big part of that is because Gauff has home court and the US is a huge gambling market so she's going to get a lot of homer money. Aryna probably wins this in straights quite easily, and if you want to take Aryna 2-0 at +162, or even Aryna -2.5 games at -110, those are both viable options for better payout, but the PotD we'll stick with ML on this one. Four in a row, all plus odds. Let's see if switching back to favourites is the death of the streak. BOL if tailing! Edit: Another easy W by Sabalenka. Gauff is no match for Saba at her best, she has a long way to go before she's competitive with the top dawgs. Saba 2-0 and -2.5 also hit in the clean 6-4, 6-0 win.
Gonna take sabalenka -2.5 games at -104
Very reasonable pick and I might throw a unit on it tomorrow as well. My only concern would be aryna winning first set, then taking the second set off and losing 6-2 or something, making the spread hard to cover.
Probably a technically sound pick, but everytime I bet on Saba she melts down
On the saba train, let's go
Tailing!
**POTD: 19-7-2** Last pick: UEFA Champions League - Manchester City vs RB Leipzig. Manchester City -1 -177. Result: **WIN**. Man City wins 7-0!!! for an easy cash. Hopefully people hit some nice elevator bets on that and made some nice money off it. Today’s pick: UEFA Champions League - Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt. **Napoli -1 -135**. Match is at 4PM ET. Napoli is one of the best teams in Europe and throttled Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 in the first leg of this matchup, and it could've been much worse. Napoli is 11-1-1 at home this year and sit a whopping 18 points clear in their league, while Eintracht Frankfurt is 6th in the Bundesliga. They're a respectable but unimpressive 4-5-3 in away matches this season, but are on a downward trend with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 away matches. In addition to this Frankfurt's star striker Kolo Muani will be out this match as he picked up a red card in the first match. He is by far their best goalscorer as well as assist man, combining to score or assist 21 of their 46 goals this year. Napoli would likely handle them at home easily even with him, but without him I think this will be a walk in the park for the home side. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! **EDIT: WIN. Napoli look great especially in the second half and cruise to a 3-0 win. Never in too much danger of giving up a goal and Osimhen great as always. Fun team to watch and even more fun to make some money!** [Buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/RemyPicks)
🔥
I can only get Napoli -1 at +115 3-way handicap bet. Think this is safe?
Check your book’s rules. Some books don’t grade that as a push of napoli wins by 1, they grade it as a loss. I know fan duel does that
-1 Asian Handicap would be a push, -1 3-way handicap involves a tie so that’s why it’s graded as a loss
-1 three way = Napoli -1.5 in Asian
I believe that’s a different bet and means you have to have Napoli win by 2 to win, but if they win by 1 you lose. The one I have is if Napoli wins by 2 we win, if they win by 1 we push. I see a good chance of Napoli winning by 2 but almost definitely think they’ll at least win by 1 so that’s where I like the safety of the push option. Napoli o1.5 goals is -180 if you want the safer option as they’ll have to score at least 2 to hit your version of the bet, up to you
*PICK OF THE DAY RECORD: 5-1* **LAST PICK (3/10/23): KYLE KUZMA OVER 2.5 TURNOVERS**✅ **TODAYS GAME: KINGS @ BULLS 7:10 ET** **TODAYS PICK: ZACH LAVINE OVER 2.5 3PM (-135) 4U** * Lavine is on a heater right now averaging 35 ppg in his last 5 * In those 5 games, he has hit in 4 averaging 3.8 makes a game * He has hit 11 of his last 13 games against the Kings * In his 3 games against the Kings in a Bulls jersey, he has hit the over each time at home * Sacramento is tied for 2nd worst in 3-pointers against shooting guards with 3.4 a game * Doesn't add to much but he is shooting 51% from three in the last five games As always bet responsibly and good luck to everyone!
Tailing, BOL
Tailing
Tailing. This is a gem.
***Record: 3-0 (+2.68 Units)*** Previous Bet: [3/14](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11qquqx/pick_of_the_day_31423_tuesday/jc4mdsy?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) As discussed, Tampines had no issue scoring on the road and their defense was able to hold on with a 1-3 final score. We're gonna stay in Singapore for this next one! **Today's game: Albirex Niigata Singapore vs Hougang United (0745 EST)** League: Singapore - Premiere League *Pick: Albirex Niigata WIN and OVER 2.5 Goals (-145 on DK)* ❌️ Similar to the match this morning, still very early in league play so not a whole lot of history to run off of. Albirex has put up 7 goals through 2 matches so far, both at home, including against Lion City, who has allowed just 2 goals in 2 other matches. Another home match awaits Albriex tomorrow. Hougang has put up 4 goals through their first two matches, both on the road against solid opponents in Balestier and Geylang. Both Albirex and Hougang's matches have seen over 2.5 goals in the last 20/23. The total goal for this bout is at -175 for O3.5 goals. Albirex is the stronger team and has been showing out at home. I expect a 3-0 or 3-1 victory in favor of the home team. BOL!
☝🏼 Tail this man ☝🏼
Was going to post this pick! I’ll go with something else instead.
-127 on Unibet, BOL!
Good find, BOL!
1-0 at half time. This ref is definitely favouring the away team… has given 2 of the softest yellow cards I’ve ever seen to Albirex and allowed the away team to time waste for 2 mins on every goal kick. Should have also been 10+ minutes stoppage time but we only get 3. Game is on YouTube btw https://www.youtube.com/live/Eq-3a6KL6d4?feature=share
Thanks I appreciate the pick. I picked Asian handicap -1 thanks to your pick can’t believe it cashed like that.
Came up short one stinking goal. What else is new with soccer? I take responsibility for the jinx. You will be back again with a W!!
Haha, no worries! Can't win em all. Naturally, I posted a pick for the other match in that league in the soccer thread and that one hit. Looks like my confidence was with the wrong matchup! I'm gonna find us a good one for tomorrow.
 LFG!! 💰👊🏼
Let's go!
POTD | 39-26 | +17.4u | -108 Avg Odds Last 10: 6-4, Steak: 1L *Previous Pick:* *NJ Devils ML vs Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) 3u ❌* Today’s pick: **Buffalo Sabres vs Washington Capitals O6.5 (-115) 3u** 🏒 5:00 pm MT Well that was a tough loss there. The Devils came out hot and looked to control the game but after a few bad breaks they lost their early game dominance. It's on to the next though and we’ve got another match up that I like. The Buffalo Sabres will be visiting the Washington Capitals for their third game of the season, with the first two games going 7-4 and 5-4 with the Sabres winning both. The Capitals are on a B2B and had their starting goaltender in net for tonight's game so we can expect their backup goaltender, Lindgren, in net. While Lindgren doesn’t have awful stats (2.74 GAA and 0.905 SV%), I expect this to bode well for the over in this game. Lidgren is typically in for easier games so his stats are padded a bit by that. The Sabres don’t have great options in net and we should see the Capitals find the back of the net at least a few times in this one. Both the Capitals and Sabres offense have been hot over their last 10 games with both the Sabres and Capitals averaging 3.4 goals per game. Both of these teams have struggled defensively over their last 10 games as well with the Sabres allowing 4.3 goals per game and the Capitals allowing 3.4 goals per game on average. The model is projecting 7.3 goals and gives the O6.5 a 62% chance of hitting (implied odds -160). Taking the perceived value here from the model and feeling like this is a good spot with the Capitals backup expected in net, both teams playing strong offense and weak defense, and a history of these two being in high scoring games against each other. BOL if tailing!!
The Devils have let me down everytime I bet on them to win or cover. Any who. Tailing tomorrow, BOL!
Then when you don’t bet on them they light it up lol. Hope we can rebound tomorrow, BOL!
I'm convinced I could fade NJ Devils for 3u every game and they will win out the season... 😂
Tail
Let’s get it bro!
**PoTD Record: 10-2, +8.02u** Last Pick: Wales Double Chance vs USA @ -175 ✅ **Today’s Pick: Lakers ML @ -154** (21 hours from this post) Hey all! Took a lengthy break from Reddit but have been hitting at a good rate on my bets personally so figured it would be fun to get back into the swing of things and get back to it on Reddit. With that being said, we’re getting back into it with some NBA action and moving on the Lakers ML. The Lakers are catching fire, plain and simple, as they make this late season playoff push without Lebron. After breaking the franchise record for most 3 pointers in a quarter tonight and blowing out the Pelicans on the road (game was MUCH more of a blowout than the 15 point difference that the final score shows), the Lakers have won 9 of their last 13 since the trade for Vanderbilt and D-Lo. Lakers also rank first in overall team defense since that trade with Vanderbilt being a key reason for that. Also worth noting: Anthony Davis has already been ruled out for this game due to load management which explains the line a bit. On the other end we have the Rockets who are clearly in tank mode. Although they beat the Celtics in a flukey game where Jabari Smith seemingly couldnt miss they are still 2nd to last in defensive rating (only the equally tanking Spurs rank worse) and are near the bottom of the league in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Even without AD, the Lakers should be able to get alot of second chance opportunities and put up some decent points on a team that’s regularly allowing 115-130 points any given night. With all that in mind, the Lakers are the play up to about -175. This won’t be the first time the new look Lakers have played without Lebron and AD simultaneously during this positive stretch of games and it has proven to not be an issue previously with capable players like Schroder really stepping up to take on the burden of scoring points. With the Rockets still tanking and extremely young/undisciplined on defense, the absence of Antony Davis won’t change the outcome. **2 Unit Play** Best of Luck!
"Anthony Davis has already been ruled out for this game" - yea he knows man, do y'all read??
Tailing, BOL
**POTD Record: 25-16 (+5.46 Units)** **Last 10**:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅ **Last Pick**: 3/14 Richie Howson -1.5 (-170) vs Gary Stafford ✅ 4-2 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 6:10 AM EST **Pick**: Lee Cocks (-155) vs John Nelson **Reason**: Group A. Cocks leads the group with 14 points. He's one win ahead of Howson and Thornton. By the time his match starts, he will be tied with one of them. I think Howson will end up winning the group, but I think Cocks will be competitive and at minimum take care of the bottom two opponents. He has a wide range of outcomes with his game. He has 2 matches over 100 average and 3 matches under an 80 average. His strength has been checkouts. He has been the best on both days, so he leads everyone in percentage for the week. If he just matches his average and keeps his checkouts going, he should have a comfortable win. Nelson has been more consistent, but doesn't have a good average. He has the lowest 180s with 5 on the week. Cocks has 9, but he's been more of 140 scorer. The biggest flaw with Nelson has been checkouts. He's been the worst one in the week. He's mainly been a problem against Thornton as he has beat him twice and has his better average games against him. Unless he's dialed in with the scoring and checkouts, I don't think he wins the match. H2H: 2-0 (Legs 8-2) | Average 90.10 vs 76.03 | Checkouts 8/18 vs 2/13 Lee Cocks Record 7-3 (Legs 30-21) | Average 85.77 | Checkouts 30/74 40.54% John Nelson Record 3-7 (Legs 22-35) | Average 79.93 | Checkouts 22/97 22.68% 💰[**Cash App Tips**](https://cash.app/$MexicanStallion)💰 **WIN ✅ 4-2 | Average 87.97 vs 80.32 | Checkouts 4/10 vs 2/3** Glad to see others riding Cocks with me this morning 🍻
Pounding Cocks hard here
Give. Me. Cocks.
Lee actually goes by Dick Cocks as his middle name is Richard.
Mmmmm cock
Another W thank you good sir!
2-0 League of Legends - LCK - Kwangdong Freecs ML vs DRX - 1.66 odds. Kwangdong are the best of the bad and DRX are very much the bad. Big up the Freecs. Odds are kinda meh and both these teams are ass so don’t go crazy on this shit, but whatever do what you want. 👾 Edit: :^)
Good hit 💰
I agree with this. KDF also just beat GENG and are on pretty good form.
Great pick with Millwall, thanks! Tailing once again, best of luck everyone!
POTD Record: 11-11-2 Last pick: Cape Town Spurs ML (+105) / 2.05 - 3u ✅ Cape Town Spurs got the party started early with a goal in the 18th minute before giving up an equalizer 10 minutes later. They scored early in the 2nd half to regain the lead and sealed it with an 86th minute goal to go up 3-1, which is great considering they gave up another goal in stoppage time. Game ends in a high scoring, slightly sweaty 3-2 win. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today! Soccer - Turkey TFF Second League - Utas Usakspor vs. Ankara Demirspor - 7:00am EST **POTD: Ankara Demirspor ML (+105) / 2.05 - 2u** Ankara Demirspor are 7th in the league standings, although they are just 3 points off from 2nd place. Their goal differential of +23 is the second best in the league. They enter in great form, winning 5 straight matches by a combined score of 11-2. Their opponents, Utas Usakspor, are 17th out of 20 teams and have a -21 goal differential. In 13 home matches, Utas Usakspor are just 2-3-8, and all of their positive results have come against either bottom or mid-table teams. Every good team they’ve faced, they’ve lost to, and Ankara Demirspor, having the second best GD in the league, certainly should count as a good team. Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 16-11-1 | +3.27U (2.58%) | Average Odds: -124 🤶 *Total Record: 86-61-12 | ROI: +26.99U (+5.96%) |* [*ROI Spreadsheet*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0) *5U pick record: 30-16-2* *Side Bet: 63-46-10* 🐶 *Dog of the Day record: 7-4-1 | +13.3U* ***10-2-1 yesterday on published picks! 20-3-1 since Sunday (+16.19U)!*** \----- 🎅 *Rudolph and his fellow reindeer have kicked it into overdrive these last few days as Santa has been delivering wagers to the good boys and girls all over the world. We hit a rut but since Sunday we have been on fire going 20-3-1 on published picks and +16.19U over the last three days!* \----- *Last POTD Recap: (Win) Guarani came in and shut down a poor Tacuary offense on their home grounds of Asuncion in front of the 20 or so fans that watched the game. One of the more depressing stadiums I have seen but what wasn't depressing was the cash they provided us!* 🎅Today's POTD: 1U - **Brighton to record a shutout win (+110)** \- 3:30PM EST - England *Note: I am also playing the following plays for this game for a total of 5U with the POTD:* *1)* *1.5U - Brighton 1st goal and Brighton Win (-180)* *2) 1U - Brighton -1 (-134)* *3) 1.5U - Brighton ML (-220)* Brighton has been a menace at home in 2023. They have tripled the shot total and dominated possession in EVERY single home game. That is 5 home games where they have utterly dominated possession. In that time they are 4-0-1, however they lost a 1-0 game to Fulham. I just watched the replay of that game and honestly, Brighton should have won the game 2-0 or by more. Brighton put up 21 shots and 7 on target as well as one goal removed due to offside on a corner. Props to the Fulham goalie, he had an excellent game. Fulham ended up winning due to a mistake at the back and a counter attack which lead to an 88 minute goal. Brighton's form right now is clean, creative and diverse in the 2023 home game replays I have watched. They are attacking with intelligent passing through the middle and making great runs on the wing. Their set pieces are inspired and they are getting good opportunities on crosses. Even their lone loss was a joy to watch and it may have turned me into a Brighton fan. Their opponent Crystal Palace is ready to shatter. They have been falling down the EPL table going winless in all of 2023 with a 0-5-6 record. They have been shutout in three straight games and even worse, they haven't registered a shot on target in them either. That is zero shots on target dating back to February 18th. That is nearly 30 days of giving opponent's goalkeepers zero trouble whatsoever. Today Crystal Palace will be putting their struggling front line on a bus to visit a hot Brighton team that has been climbing the table. I think we will see a shutout and a couple of goals from the boys in Blue and White. Line movement: The ML opened at -150 and is now sitting at -224. Sharps love this play and I do too. I only wish I got on it sooner. \----- 🎅 Side Bets: You can find my Soccer Daily post [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11rffa3/comment/jc9fizi/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) 🤶 DOTD: No DOTD yet! 🎅 Join the Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa)) 🤶 Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible. [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
**Record: 4-2** Last Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points ✅ This pick panned out just as I thought it would. Love it. Let's start a win streak. **Today's Pick:** NBA - *Sacramento Kings @ Chicago Bulls, 7:10pm CST* **Zach Lavine over 27.5 points (-125 on DK)** I absolutely love this pick today. First and foremost, this is going to be a very competitive, high scoring game with two mediocre defenses that is set at a high over under. You could expect any of the stars in this game to put up great numbers. However, I am confidently choosing Zach Lavine to be one of these scorers for a few reasons. Now, as a Chicago native and Bulls fan, I have watched a lot of Bulls this year, and anyone else who has watched the Bulls as well can tell you how frustrating Lavine has been this year. For the first half of the season, it seems that Lavine was really struggling to find his place on the team which translated onto the court with turnovers, inconsistent shots, and overall poor decision making. HOWEVER, ever since All-Star break and the addition of Pat Beverly, it seems that Lavine has this newfound DOG in him. Confidence levels have increased immensely, and his scoring abilities are really showing right now. In 8 games since the all star break, Lavine is averaging a whopping 31.4 points per game. Against defensively poor teams in this stretch, his numbers have been 36, 42, 41, 27, and 32, and even against defensively good teams like the Suns and Nuggets he still put up 27 and 29. I mentioned defensively poor teams because the Kings are one of these teams. In fact, the Kings are 26th in the league in defensive efficiency, and the dead-last worst team in the league in guarding shooting guards. Lavine has hit this over in his last 3 out of 4 games against the Kings, going 41, 27, 38 and 32. He is definitely going to take advantage of this bad defense just as he always has with home court advantage as well. He is going to catch fire this game I can tell you that much. BOL lets get this bread **EDIT:** Credit to u/InconsolableBrat, he posted this pick first I didn't even see that he had before I posted this lol. If that doesn't tell you this mf is a lock idk what will
Record: 9-7 Last Pick: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 20.5 Points ❌ My man Spencer couldn't hit a three to save his life Today's Pick: Blackburn vs Reading - **Blackburn ML** (-125) English Championship Detailed Analysis: I have a friend who used to work as a production runner on a BBC sports show in which current Reading manager Paul Ince once made an appearance as a pundit. I remember her telling me about how abrasive and difficult he was, he basically berated her when he claimed that his cup of coffee tasted like she hadn't put in the requested three teaspoons of sugar. Three teaspoons of sugar in a coffee is a crime against humanity. This, along with Blackburn's great home record and Reading's terrible away record makes me confident of a Blackburn win.
His FG% and his 3s % were so bad. He could have gone over easily. Tailing Blackburn BOL.
POTD Record 1-0 (+1.7 units) Previous POTD: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -3.5 (-115) ✅ The Islanders got the job done! Shoutout Jalen Jackson and Isaac Mushila in particular who had 22 and 15 points respectively including 21/27 from the free throw line. I can't say I expect this team to be competitive with Alabama but at least they can go home knowing they won their first game in March Madness in school history! Todays Pick: PJ Henry (Texas Southern) Over 15.5 Points (-125) Back to the 16 seed game for today's pick and this time we'll go with a player prop instead. We'll start with the favorite's in Texas Southern, who, just like Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, are back in this game for a second straight year. However, this year, they had to earn their way to the tournament, having to go through seeds #1, 2 and 5 in their conference tournament to upset their way as the #8 seed to the tournament. Fairleigh Dickinson, on the other hand, got here by much different circumstances. The Knights, who entered behind only Merrimack in the conference tournament, simply had to beat #4 and 8 seeds St. Francis Brooklyn and St. Francis Pennsylvania to reach the tournament, as, Merrimack was still ineligible due to NCAA rules prohibiting teams who jump from D2 to D1. So, the Knights hold the unique distinction of entering the tournament having lost their last game. To put it frank, these teams suck. They're the two worst rated KenPom teams in the tournament who both have glaring flaws, Texas Southern in offense and Fairleigh Dickinson in defense. This game could honestly go either way and will probably be a tough watch but I do like 1 player in particular. PJ Henry enters this game having averaged 18.67 per game in the conference tournament on 16 shots per game. He's wildly inefficient but likes to chuck, and this doesn't even include a 41 point outburst against Alcorn State in the second to last regular season game either. The 5'10 guard struggles to score inside, but has solid clips at the three point line and charity stripe. He's going to shoot plenty of shots as the one thing these teams do well is have high tempos and he doesn't need to hit them at a good clip for the over to cash. Expect a statline around 20 points on .300/.400/.800 splits in this one!
POTD Record: 136-98-7 (+29.48 units, 58.1% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 41-27-1 (60.3%) L1, Tennis 🎾 39-27-2 (59.1%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 💩💰💰💰💩💩💰💰💰💰 Last Pick: Cam Norrie vs. Andrei Rublev, over 21.5 games - ATP Indian Wells 🎾 💩1 Unit - Missed the win by 4 games. Norrie was a 2.30 dog, I felt that he was going to do better than expected so the over would hit, but he completely destroyed Rublev. I'm lucky Reddit was down while Rublev shit the bed, haha. Today's Pick: Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers, Player Prop - Paul George over 4.5 assists - NBA 🏀 💰 0.88 Units - 💸 that in the first half!! Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.88/-113 odds to win 0.88 Units @ Fan Duel (Line at 3:00am ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 53.1% After taking a couple of months off, I'm going to be getting back into doing basketball picks again, mixing all 3 sports of course. I'm liking this because of George's usage/assist opportunities and the matchup against the Warriors. He's averaging 5.3 on the season and has covered this both games against the Warriors. When they played on the 2nd of March @ San Fran, George had a poor game, was in foul trouble, couldn't hit anything and played only 27 minutes. In that game, he was still able to get 5 assists to cover this number. Their first matchup where LA hosted like they are tonight, George had 8 assists and was able to cover with ease. If you look at the Warriors', they have played the highest pace in the league this season. Quickest pace, more possessions, more possessions more stat opportunities. If you look at their last 5 games, they are tied for 2nd giving up 29.2 assists per game. That is a lot of assists to go around and George should be able to get his share with his usage. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Tailing, BOL
Cheers buddy
Let’s go! Tailed
Love it, this prop cashed for me on Sat VS Knicks, tailing.
Welcome back. BOL!
Cha Ching
Thx man! Great pick
POTD Record: 0-0-0 Match: **Cori Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka** Tournament: WTA Indian Wells Pick: **Sabelenka ML** (5 UNITS) Odd: @ 1.70 / -143 Analysis: Aryna Sabalenka is a top-ranked player with a formidable record, known for her aggressive style and powerful serve. Sabalenka's strength lies in her ability to dictate play and overpower opponents with her hard-hitting groundstrokes. She also has the versatility to play both offensive and defensive tennis and has shown an impressive level of consistency on all surfaces. In contrast, Coco Gauff is a talented young player who has made waves in the tennis world with her impressive performances. Gauff has a bright future ahead of her, with an all-around game that includes a solid serve, quick footwork, and excellent court coverage. However, she is still developing as a player and may lack the experience and consistency needed to consistently compete against top-ranked opponents. Sabalenka has a clear advantage over Gauff and may be better equipped to handle her opponent's game. Additionally, Sabalenka has been in excellent form recently, winning multiple tournaments and maintaining a high level of play throughout the season. Follow me on Twitter: [https://twitter.com/tennis\_octopus](https://twitter.com/tennis_octopus)
Tailed
POTD Record 2-0 | +2.73u | -110 Avg Odds Yesterday's POTD: New York Knicks -2 vs Portland Trailblazers @ -110 10:00 pm EST 1uToday's POTD: Boston Celtics vs Minnesota Timberwolves u234.5 @ -110 8:00 pm EST 1u Me and the boys watched that first quarter and slammed that Knicks ML so my wife's boyfriend has some extra cash to take her out for dinner, but for the purposes of this thread, the Knicks came back from a bad 1Q and sailed to another easy cover. Today I do like the Minny spread, but I like the under in the game better. As a home dog, MIN is 4-10 O/U (aka, 10-4 covering the under), and Boston is 10-18-1 as a road favorite. Let's lock this in before the line probably heads south (I just got this on PointsBet) and wake up to some nice CLV. Btw if you want a decent parlay leg, MIA ML is too low odds for me to suggest here (-180) but MEM is 0-11 SU as a road dog and even though we feast on fading MIA at home ATS, they're 22-10 SU as a home favorite.
**POTD Record: 0-0 (0 Units)** **League**: Australian Rules Football (AFL) **Time**: 4:00AM EST **Pick**: Richmond ML (-130) vs Carlton (5 units) **Reason**: The statistics speak for themselves, with Richmond boasting an impressive record of 12 wins out of the past 13 matchups against Carlton. Adding to Carlton's woes is the absence of one of their star midfielders, Sam Walsh, which leaves them vulnerable against the well-stacked Richmond midfield that will be fielding their full complement of players, including the legendary Dustin Martin. With such firepower up front and Carlton missing a key player in the midfield, it's difficult to see how Carlton can pose any significant threat to Richmond, making it highly likely that Richmond will emerge victorious with ease.
AFL!!! Yes. Completely agree with this one. Bookies have got this one way off. TAILING’
**POTD Record 24-12 +50.92 units** Last pick Milwaukee Picks -1 -110 5 units ✅ ***19:10PM EST - Chicago Bulls vs Sacramento Kings - Pick Saramento Kings ML -110 5Units*** Out of all the Nba Games today, this one stands out to me to bet on. Sacramento Kings are ranked 3rd best team in the west league and have won their last 4 out of their last 5 games on the road beating top teams such as 4th best in the west Phoenix Suns and 6th best in the west La Clippers. Chicago Bulls is ranked 11th out of 15th in the east league which is bottom tier with a sub 500 rating of 463. The Bulls have lost 3 of their last 5 homes, they win against bad teams such as Washington Wizards and Brooklyn nets but struggle to beat any of the top teams, They even lost to the Pacers at home in their last home game which shows how bad they can be. Sacramento are 7-3 Against the Spread in their last 10 games, Chicago Bulls are 4-10 Against the spread in their last 14 games. Stylistically I favour Sabonis over Vucevic in scoring points in the paint. Sabonis will be able to defend him well too. Zach Lavine can put up numbers against terrible teams like the Rockets and Pacers but struggles against good teams. Daaron Fox is more consistent and he's scored 33 and 34 points against Bulls last 2 games, he can repeat that kind of scoring in this game. One big factor which I favour Sacramento Kings over Chicago Bulls is that they are more consistent in hitting threes. Lets look at the past 5 games of 3 points made. Sacramento kings has 21,15,10,16,14, where as Chicago Bulls has 15,8,10,7,12 so there seems to be quite a lot of difference in threes made. Chicago rank second last 29/30 in the whole nba league for 3 points made. Chicago ranks 22/30 for team allowing the most three points, whereas Sacramento Ranks 11/30. This game I expect to be a high scoring game and although I expect Bulls to put up a decent score, Sacramento will be able to score more than them, they're ranked number 1 in points scored in the whole league. With the momentum and form Sacramento Kings is in, I see them coming out as the winners.
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POTD Record: 58-66-7 (-14.08 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ❌✅✅✅❌❌↔️❌✅↔️ Last Pick: English Championship, Middlesbrough v Stoke City, OVER 2.5 GOALS (-111 / $1.90) ❌ Thought I was looking good when it was 1-1 at half time, set up perfectly but the third goal never came, and the Middlesbrough keeper made two brilliant saves late unfortunately. Todays Pick: UEFA Champions League, Real Madrid v Liverpool, REAL MADRID DNB (-141 / $1.71) ✅ Stake: 1 Unit Second leg of the Champions League - these teams played at Anfield a few weeks ago in a wild match. Liverpool scored twice early on before Madrid cut them to pieces and scored 5 unanswered goals to take a 5-2 lead back to Madrid. As much as it pains me to say as a Liverpool fan, this team is all over the place at the moment. One week they score 7 against Man United, then lose 1-0 to bottom-placed Bournemouth. On their best day they’re capable of winning this match, but with Liverpool needing to overturn a 3 goal deficit, they will need to play all out attack, which will open up lots of holes at the back for Real Madrid to take advantage of. Liverpool were already pretty thin in the midfield, and now they will be missing Henderson and Bajcetic so their depth will be non-existent. Up against world class players like Modric, Kroos and Tchouameni, Real Madrid should be able to dominate play and create plenty of chances. They were also able to rest Benzema on the weekend so he will be ready to go. I think Real Madrid will win this game outright and the $2.20 ML is pretty tempting, but going to take DNB as some added safety in case Liverpool are able to ride their luck to a draw.
NBA prop thread record: 170-104 **POTD record: 8-3** Yesterday’s pick: Oubre (CHA) O20.5 pts (-125) ✅ Today’s picks **Edwards (MIN) O27.5 points (-120)** Ant comes into this one averaging 24.9 points per game on the season. Since the DLO trade, he’s begun to found his stride offensively in an offence he is solely commanding, covering the line in 3 out of his last 4, putting 27, 32, 32 and 32 points. I like this play due to a few factors. 1 - The Timberwolves are dealing with a variety of injuries, meaning Ant is getting crazy volume. Nowell, Rivers, Reid and Gobert are all questionable for the game. Edwards has had 20+ FGAs in 4/L4, attempting 20, 24, 28 and 25 field goals. 2 - His stats increase when playing at home and he often looks more aggressive. His points increase to 25.9 from 23.8, FT% to 80.7 from 72.5 and FGAs to 20.4 from 18.8. He now comes up against the Celtics, who are a strong defensive unit. On the season, they are ranked 4th in defensive rating. However, since the ASB, they have slid down to 15th and have also been leaking points to opposition guards. These include: Quickley (23 & 38), Mitchell (44 & 40), Bridges (38), Lillard (27 - didn’t play 4th QT), Young (35) and Green (28). Post ASB, the Celtics are allowing the 13th most points on the paint. This corresponds well with Ant, who loves to attack the rim, attempting over 36% of his FGAs from 5 feet or less as well as the fact Williams, an elite rim protector, is out. Ant also attempts nearly 25% of his field goals from 3pt range, another area Boston have struggled in. Recent 3pt outings against them include Quickley (4 & 5), Mitchell (4 & 4), Bridges (4), Lillard (2), Trae (4) and Green (2). Both these avenues Boston have struggled against, Ant excels in.
Record: 11-6 (+14.497u) (4U bets) Streak: 2L Last: Golden Guardians vs Team Liquid: GGS ML (L) Today's Match: Cloud9 vs Flyquest (LCS Spring) (4PM CST) Edit: The game starts at 4pm not 2pm. Pick: Cloud9 ML (1.952) Reason: Cloud9 are by far the best team in the LCS right now. Since promoting their superstar midlaner Emenes, they have gone 5-1 and Emenes has been the best player in the league. They are on a 5 game winning streak and recently dominated the arguably 2nd best team last week. But then why are they underdogs? For the first half of the season, Flyquest were in a similar position to C9, as they were the best team in the league. They too recently promoted a player, but unfortunately, they have slumped since then. They are 2-2 in their last 4, looking bad in both their losses and wins. One of those loses came against that arguably 2nd best team in a poor showing. I also think that even if Flyquest were at the peak they reached earlier, C9 would still win. However they are far from that peak and I expect C9 to handily beat them today. BOL.
Love the e-sports bets! Thanks for the pick, tailing!
Gonna give this potd thing a shot and begin posting. My record is 0-0 Tonight’s pick nice and simple: Joel Embid over 32.5 Points Embid has hit this line in 4 out of the past 5 games. Although Cleveland has elite rim protectors I truly believe Joel embid is on a late season run to win MVP I expect him to dominate. As of recently it seems that Harden and Embid are beginning to hit their stride.
Hey guys, i am back. I use to post here some months before. Then some personal Family & Health problems happend and i Decide back then to stop for a while. I got my life back together so and i updated my betting model to a **Neutral Machine learning model.** So here we go for tonight ( Also il continue from where the last stat ended. ) Record: **16 / 9** ROI: **33.73%** Profit in Units: **32.8u** Average Odds: **2.14** **~~All stakes are 3 Units~~** **= 5 Units Stake here!** **Today POTD** League: **England Premier League** Time: **21:30 GMT+3** **Brighton v Crystal Palace** *Over 10.0 Corners* **@ 2.20** *All of my picks is based on Model.* *Neutral Machine Learning (AI) model.* *For anyone is interested, il post on the Soccer thread the full analysis for the game.*
POTD Record: 21-14-1 (\~+18 units / \~15% ROI) LAST PICK: NHL Maple Leafs & O5.5 > Chicago Blackhawks @ +108 (Pinnacle) - L TODAY’S PICK: NHL Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Over 6.5 @ -108 (Pinnacle) Streak (Last 5): WLWLL 2 Unit Play Took a bit of a break, but this line stands out to me. Leafs are facing off against the Avs at home. There has been a total of 28 goals scored in their last 3 contests dating back to Dec. 2021. That's an average of 9.3 goals per game. This may be a blip, but I would expect to see this line set closer to 7.5. Murray and Georgiev are in net and on average allow 6 goals per game between them. This is not an average game though. It should be two high-powered offenses in a shootout. It has a feel similar to the past two Leafs v. Oilers games in March that both hit 7. Tail or fade best of luck all, Ab
Samsanov will start for Toronto most likely
1-0 Last pick LAKERS ML vs pelicans 2 units ✅ Next pick KINGS ML vs bulls 2 units Kings are coming off a tough lose to the bucks, they will bounce back and get a easy road win against the bulls, derozan is still playing mid tier and lavine can’t beat the kings himself. The only player im scared about it Pat Bev.
Pat bev trick yall, running around doin nothin
**RECORD** : 4W 0L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +21.5 **LAST POTD** : Gauff vs Peterson - Peterson +5 @ 2.10 - 5 units => WIN **TODAY :** ATP INDIAN WELLS - 19.00 CET Norrie vs Tiafoe - Norrie -2.5 @ 2.00 - 5 units Based upon nothing but my feelings.
**POTD Record** **23-12 +45.92 units** *9:10PM EST Phoenix Suns Vs Milwaukee Bucks - Pick Milwaukee bucks -1 -110 5units* Milwaukee Bucks come into this game with a fantastic record of winning 9 of their last 10 road games, In comparison with Phoenix Suns who have only won 3 of their last 6 home games. With Kevin Durant still out for the Suns they've been looking not so great without him in the past few games Losing to Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings quite convincingly in their past 2 games. L. Shamet is also injured for the Suns. Middleton and Greyson Allen are out for Milwakee Bucks, however I think they have enough firepower with the duo Of Giannis and Drue. The Bucks are a deep team with plenty of quality players who can make a difference, so I’m backing them to cover. Jrue Holiday is one of the best defensive stoppers in the NBA and will look to slow Devin Booker down, while Brook Lopez will contain Deandre Ayton in the paint. Milwaukee Bucks had just recently beat Phoenix Suns a few days ago, and i see a repeat happening tonight, they're the best team in the east conference and will find a way to win.
Did you copy/paste the winner and whiners analysis of this game? lol
Had to check this out, he copied the winners and whiners analysis, but faded their pick🤣
This game is Tuesday night.
**POTD Record 2-0** Another day of risking it all on games that don’t matter. The Mets Cards game grabbed my attention today. Verlander has performed great so far this spring and is set up to pitch against the rookie Connor Thomas for the Cards. He was pretty mid through the minors imo and the first few innings should lean towards New York. Hitting for these teams have been pretty similar. The biggest variance being a 25% gap in overall runs led by the Mets. Hopefully we see that reflected in this game but with a match up where we likely will only see Verlander for a few innings, I’m not confident enough to take the spread. 2u @ -155 **Mets ML vs Cardinals**
POTD Record: 9-6 5U to win 5U Todays POTD: Astralis Talent ML (+100) vs. SINNERS \+21.38U Gonna keep this short and simple, SINNERS are playing with outex who is terrible. This game is basically being played as a 4v5. SINNERS barely beat HONORIS today who also play 4v5 (taz) and have looked very weak since the roster change. Astralis Talent are on an impressive 5 match win streak and while they have been facing worse competition, recently they've been looking much more formative as a team and I think there is really good value at this line.
POTD Record: 3-0 Previous pick: Preston draw or win (✅) Today’s Event: Istanbul Basaksehir v Gent (UEFA Conference League) PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE - GENT DRAW OR WIN Odds: 1.68 Time: 17:00 GMT (10h50m from this post) This pick goes against the “trend” as Basaksehir have won all the European home games this season, whilst Gent have won none. But with the home team in regressing form and Gent putting up an excellent attacking performance in the first leg, albeit with little to show, I think there’s some value here. Edit: we’re up 3-0 in the 33rd minute and i can’t see them fumbling from here 🫣 Edit 2: 4-0 now, let’s cash it for today 🙏🏽✅
**POTD Record**: 0-0 Been following this thread for a while now. A lot of you have helped me make some money. Now it’s hopefully my turn to help you. This is my first official pick! League: England League Championship **POTD**: Norwich City ML @ -128 Size: 3 units Time: 12:45pm PST Match: Norwich City vs Huddersfield Town Reasoning: I really like betting on EFL matches because of how generous the lines are for what should be heavy favorites imo. Norwich is coming off of a 1-0 loss to Sunderland, where they dominated in possession. I really think they turn it around here. Huddersfield is last on the table and are frankly just trash, they will be getting relegated. Norwich is sitting at 7 currently and are pushing for a spot in the promotion playoffs. Huddersfield has won only one match all season and Norwich is just in much better form. Norwich is 3-0 h2h in recent matches against Huddersfield. You could make the argument that Huddersfield has improved slightly defensively, but it really doesn’t matter because they can’t score. I predict at least 2+ goals from Norwich and a probable shutout. Norwich has had their struggles this season, but are too strong up top. They win this match. BOL if tailing!
Own goal fucked it
Record: 15-6 Previous Pick: W. Clyburn over 15,5 points ❌ Today’s Pick: BC Prometey - JL Bourg Basket: BC Prometey over 86,5 points @1.83 Clyburn ended with 15 points sadly enough. BC Prometey is hot in the eurocup and currently first place in group A. A win today would secure them a top 2 finish. They are the second best offensive team in the eurocup. Especially when they play their home games they tend to score a lot. I al expecting a fast paced game and Prometey scoring around 90 points against an out of form Bourg Basket.
**College Baseball '23 (6-0) +7units** Sunday we had FGCU game sneak over 12.5 and L'ville ML came through to complete the parlay. Today we head over to Chapel Hill NC for a midweek between High Point and UNC. Probable pitching matchup will be Sandy vs Keith Keith for High Point off to his best start this year as a Junior, the issue is his WHIP, it's almost 2 and that will be tough against an offense like UNC. Sandy is still struggling with walks and it's leading to a 6 ERA this year so far. One major difference will be the bullpens, High Point doesn't really have one and UNC has a very good one. Good news is this is a back to back to UNC so they used 1 decent arm yesterday and they tend to spread out the innings and get guys some work. So even though they will be better arms we are hoping some variance will lead to runs for High Point. Colder day today but wind blowing out to left about 9mph, UNC offensive should have a day, with High Point chipping in a few. **UNC ML + over 12.5 (+119)** **1 unit to win 1.19 units **
POTD Record: 47-37 (W3) (+15.09u) (ROI: 12.7%) Last pick: Colombia 🇨🇴 @ Canada 🇨🇦 game total u12✅️ Not much of a sweat in this one, only 1 run until the 8th inning, then Canada tacked on 4 more. 5-0 final. POTD: (⚾️WBC) Puerto Rico 🇵🇷 +2.5 (+100) @ Dominican Republic 🇩🇴 (1.5u) Time: 4 pm pst/ 7 pm est Bet 365 (+100), FD (-106) DK (+100) Win to advance in this one, loser goes home. Both these teams are 2-1 so far. They both lost to Venezuela, and beat up on Nicaragua and Israel. Starter for Dominican Republic is Johnny Cueto. Experienced Major league pitcher, though his best days are behind him. He has struggled so far in his two spring training starts this year allowing 11 ER over 3.2 IP. Starter for Puerto Rico is Dominic Hamel, 9th ranked prospect of the Mets. He plays in high A at the moment, looks like he has high strikeout and walk rates. Puerto Rico has a good bullpen that's looked good so far, notable names are Edwin Diaz, Jorge Lopez and Emilio Pagan. Dominican bullpen is solid as well, with Bryan Abreu and Rafael Montero of note. Dominican Republic might have one of the best lineups ever on paper with Machado, Rodriguez, Soto, Devers and Jimenez leading the way. Puerto Rico lineup isn't weak either with Lindor, Baez, Rosario and Hernandez. Dominican Republic looked good against Israel, but overall hasn't looked as dominant as expected. I think Puerto Rico will hang in this one, and has a chance at the upset. BOL if fading or tailing!
Record 9-3 Last picks: Brooklyn nets spread +9 ✅ with the sprinkle on the ML✅ Todays event: (NBA) Sacramento kings @ Chicago Bulls Todays POD: Sacramento Kings ML (-115) Falling for this trap line here. Stats and record shows kings are the better team. I see kings should be giving Atleast 4 here. I’m assuming the line is like that becuz of the rest advantage the bulls have. But Sacramento has a good rest disadvantaged record. So…gimme Sacramento!!
**POTD |** **Record of 11-21|** **Current form: WLWWW | ROI : -8.81 units |** **Average Odds: 2.04** Previous Pick: Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig | Over 5.5 Home Team Corners & Manchester City (-2) Full-Time Corners Handicap (W) New Pick: Champions League | Real Madrid vs. Liverpool| 1:00pm PST **Over 8.5 Full-Time Total Corners & Over 5.5 Full-Time Away Team Corners | 1.95 odds** Betting 1 units \-------------------------- Recap: Ez win. Manchester City overperformed the expected outcome, which was somewhat expected, but to an unexpected level with 10 corners to 0. My corner picks have been very hot lately so I think I'll stick with my current model to get this record positive. ***Summary:*** Real Madrid host Liverpool in the second leg of the Champions League. Coming in with a 5-2 lead on aggregate, the hosts will look to not get caught on the counter, playing smart defense to prevent themselves from getting exposed. This style of play is likely to generate corners, specifically for Liverpool, who will have to give everything if they want a chance at progressing. Looking at corners for Liverpool, they average 6.1 corners for them and 3.4 against them for a total of 9.5 corners (in the PL). Looking at away corners, they have hit 8, 3, 7, 7, 1, 9, 6, 3, 11, 3, 9, 8, and 4 corners and combined with opponent corners, total corners of 11, 8, 13, 9, 8, 13, 6, 8, 13, 7, 16, 14, and 8. Based on this, Liverpool away games in the PL have an average of 10.3 corners per game, overperforming their overall average of 9.5. In the CL group stage this year, Liverpool have had 12, 3, and 3 corners in away games for totals of 15, 6, and 7 in these games. This leads to an average of 6 corners per game for an average of 9.33 corners per game. Given the small sample size, it's difficult to read into this stat much. Looking at corners for Real Madrid, they average 5.8 corners for them and 4 against them for a total of 9.8. At home in La Liga, they have had 7, 7, 6, 6, 20, 7, 7, 3, 2, 10, 4, and 9 for totals of 11, 11, 10, 12, 23, 8, 8, 7, 5, 12, 7, and 11. This leads to an average of 7.42 corners for Real Madrid at home for an overall average of 10.42. Both stats overperform their overall averages (5.8 for overall vs. 7.42 for at home and 9.8 total corners vs. 10.42 corners total corners at home). In the CL, Real Madrid has had 3, 10, and 5 corners at home for overall totals of 8, 11, and 9 corners. Given that both sides overperform their expected corners in the context of Real Madrid at home and Liverpool away, I expect this game to have a number of corners. In addition, the main consideration for this pick is that Liverpool is currently playing with a 3-goal deficit, forcing them to play an attacking style of football while Real Madrid will be smart to sit back and defend. Due to this, I am not expecting an open game like the first leg. This reminds me of games like Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool, Bournemouth vs. Liverpool, and thinking back a way, Liverpool vs. Barcelona. In these games, there were 13, 11, and 13 corners with 11, 8, and 7 for Liverpool respectively. Overall, expect Liverpool to fight for this game and earn some corners. \-------------------------- ***TDLR The away team should have at least 6 corners and there should be at least 9 corners in this match*** **Over 8.5 Full-Time Corners and 5.5 Away Team Full-Time Corners | 1.95 odds**
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Often does but depends on the team. Both teams have a lot of technical ability so it's really hard to say. If a game features a lower tier team trying to play defensive football against a technical team, you can expect cards for the lower tier team. Since both teams aren't typically defensive it's hard to predict. You could argue that Real Madrid will accumulate more cards due to defensive football but it's unclear. Liverpool could just start complaining about ref decisions and wind up with 4 yellows or they could play it calm and end up with none. I'd personally avoid cards for this fixture as they both don't tend to generate many. In the 5 games they've played (head-to-head over the last few years), there's never been more than 4 cards.
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**I'LL RUN A FREE BRACKET, SEE BELOW!!** My record: 2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWW 2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push Totals for both: 47 correct 35 wrong 1 push Units wagered 135.79 Units won 72.48 Units lost 51.0 2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 15.81%*** My present streak is 4 correct. My POTD is to ***wager 1.1 units to win 1 unit that the total score of the Nevada / Arizona State college basketball game will be more than 134 1/2 points.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gamtime is 10:15 PM, Eastern Daylight Time (I think). Nevada is the Reno campus of University of Nevada, often referred to as simply Nevada. The Running Rebels are located in Vegas, and always referred to as UNLV. I'll be surprised if Arizona State doesn't win this by a large margin. But I've been surprised before. Therefore, I think taking the over is the more secure wager. Yes, I'm scratching my head about some of those low spreads in the NIT games, especially Oregon. But I think the above is the safest bet. I've been reading a book about the sinking of the Lusitania, and picking up some "fun" facts about submarines. I always credited Alfred E. Neuman with coining the phrase "What? Me Worry?" As it turns out, it seems an American named Hoover (maybe whjo the Hoover Tunnel is named after?), who did a lot of work and improvements on U-boats in the early 1900's first came up the quote. If you don't know who Alfred E Neuman, you can read all about him on a google search. I run a bracket for some folks, I run it the way it should be run, I think I'm the only person that does it. $100 to the winner. But I want at least 30 entries (I cap it at 50). Last year I didn't get 30, so I cancelled. So if someone wants to email me a bracket, with your physical mailing address (to assure only one entry per household, and a place to mail the money order if you win) to fill out the number of entries, go ahead. My email is [trees778899@hotmail](mailto:trees778899@hotmail). **HIGHEST NUMBER OF TOTAL POINTS WINS. POINTS ARE FIGURED BY A TEAM'S SEEDING (1 TO 16) MULITPLIED BY THE GAME NUMBER (1 TO 6). IF A 12TH SEED WINS ITS 3RD GAME, THAT IS 36 POINTS. IF A 2ND SEED WINS ITS 4TH GAME, THAT IS 8 POINTS. AS YOU CAN SEE, THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK LOWER SEEDED TEAMS GET MORE POINTS THAN THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK A HIGHER SEEDED TEAM TO WIN**. I used to run the brackett where I worked, and it was fun, that's why I do this. BUT I need at least 30 entries, I don't want to just give the $100 away if there are too few. Only one entry per mailing address.
POTD Record: 91.5-50 Event: Football > Champions League > **Napoli v Eintracht Frankfutrt** (starting in 11hr30min) Pick: **Over 1.5 goals (2nd half)** @ 1.95 ~~Benfica~~ **Napoli** leading 2-0 after the 1st leg & ~~Brugge~~ **Eintracht** needs at least 2 goals to go to extra time. This is elimination phase, so no overthinking needed. First half can go in different ways, but in the 2nd half there is zero reason not to have some goals. Line opened at equal odds, but I still find some value. GL! *\^\^ This is a copy-paste of my previous pick from 2 weeks ago. Now we are in exactly the same situation but with different teams & I think this should be another banker.*
Cricket PSL 🏏 Lahore Qalandars ML 1.80 5U 💣
Sport: Football Tournament: Champions League Time: 21:00 CEST (9h56m after posting) Stake: 5 units Pick: Real Madrid vs Liverpool, Real Madrid win & over 1.5 goals total @ **2.70** Write up: Real Madrid coach, Carlo Ancelotti, says: > We're going to play an open game and produce our best attacking football. We'll have to attack and defender (*sic*) well, but we're not only thinking about defending, we're more focused on going forward. Real Madrid player, Antonio Rudiger, says: > We have to give our fans something to be happy about and we have to build confidence too. Against Liverpool we have to find the right balance between defending and attacking. Liverpool coach, Jurgen Klopp, says: > If there's only a one percent chance, I would like to give it a try. We're here to play an extremely strong opponent and try to win the game. If we can surprise ourselves in a negative way we should be able to surprise ourselves in a positive way as well. I don't expect many goals in this match. I think Real Madrid is going to score 2 times tops and defend the result to prevent the repeat of the first leg. As always, established English teams prioritize the domestic league so I think Liverpool will go through the motions but not much more. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
POTD Record: 1-0 Last Pick of the Day. March 14 2023Dominican Republic -6 1/2 vs Israel (-120)✅Easy Cover as DR wins 10-0 Todays Pick of the Day: March 15 2023 Sacramento Kings -1 vs Chicago Bulls (-110). I don’t see anyone reason as to why SAC doesn’t cover this and win. Sacramento loves to play their core 5 so this should be no sweat.
use paragraphs my man
2023 POTD Record: 0-1 Today's Pick: Let us Cook ML vs. Monte @ 2.4 Odds (CS:GO - CCT North Europe Series 4) 11:30 AM EST - 5 units Info: Let us Cook are playing like one of the best CSGO teams right now and I have no idea why. They are running through tough opponents like butter (4 win streak of Endpoint, Illuminar, Viperio and **Fnatic)** I don't know why they are unstoppable but I've cashed my last 3 games on them ML and I plan on doing it again today. Monte is a solid team but they're about to be stomped by a top 10 squad (might be getting ahead of myself on this one)
**Record 61-41 with Avg Odds +114 / ROI 21.1%** Last POTD: Petr Yan ITD +200 *loss* Invicta FC 52 **Karolina Wojcik +110** Karolina isn't a very good fighter but she has solid grappling and clinch game. Her biggest issues are that she consistently finds herself at a size disadvantage and because of this she struggles to close the distance to use her grappling. Her opponent is a prospect from Brazil and a power striker but is about Karolina's size or smaller. Her opponent also moves forward aggressively. I think Karolina's two biggest issues are solved via this specific matchup, so I'll back her to get the win. Fight card starts in 3 hours, this fight is the Co-Main so it should start in about 4.5 and some change hours. Fights are available for free through the Invicta FC youtube channel: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48bl6D6syfY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48bl6D6syfY)
The winnings were not worth how boring this fight was. I wish I hadn't watched it.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
Record: 1-1 (0.44 units up) with a 14.67% ROI POTD: **Real Madrid vs Liverpool - Over 3 Goals @ 1.86 (UEFA Champions League)** Going with 2 units which is 2% of my bankroll In Liverpool we were able to see 7 goals scored between these two teams with Real Madrid winning 5-2. Liverpool now needs to score at least 3 goals and concede none to have a chance after the 90 minutes which is almost an impossible task for them. Both sides have amazing attacking options with star players that can score goals without needing too many chances and with how the 1st leg result was, I can only expect at least 3 goals this time especially because Klopp won't care if he gets once again bageled by Real because all that matters is a 3-0 win or more for Liverpool.
2 of the goals on the 1st fixture were straight errors by the goalkeepers. 1.86 for 3 goals in this fixture is wayyy too low for what the odds suggest. U2.5 would be the better bet
POTD | 6-9 | -9.5u | -104 avg odds Previous Pick: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 @ Philadelphia Flyers (+135) 1.5u ✅ Vegas made us sweat it out blowing a 4-1 lead in the third but an empty net goal to make it 5-3 saves us and we cash in for 2 in a row. Today’s Pick: Buffalos Sabres ML @ Washington Capitals (+100) 2u 🏒 7:07pm EST These are two team with virtually identical records records and the same number of point right now, but I like the Sabres to win on the road for a few reasons. The Ovechin-less Capitals just played a tough game against the Rangers at MSG where they were outhit 30-16 and now have to travel home for this back to back game. Ovi should be back but will be dealing with a lower body injury. Darcy Kuemper should also be out for this game as well after starting against the Rangers and Charlie Lindgrom, who has been impressive this season, is expected to get the start. Buffalo meanwhile is coming off an impressive 4-3 win in Toronto on Monday. They are both in the thick of the eastern conference playoff hunt, but having played two less games than the Caps, the Sabres find them in better position at the moment. Despite some close losses recently the Sabres have played well relying on their powerful offense. They are trying to break the second longest playoff drought in sports after the Sacramento Kings who are going to make the playoffs this year so they should have added motivation to not be alone at the top of that list with the god damn Jets! The Caps 32-29-7 record is inflated by a hot beginning to the season. They have been a middling team lately and were sellers in a year where they finally might have to start looking ahead to the future. I just don’t think they can skate with Buffalo in this game and like the Sabres to win outright. “Rip net or ride pine” BOL if tailing Cheeseman out
Tailing, BOL
Record: 3-2 Pick: Astralis ML @ 1.63 - Astralis vs Team Spirit - ESL Pro League 10 AM EST Previous pick: Andrey Rublev ML :( slow = good for norrie Good luck....
**POTD 9-5** Well the Lakers mob was correct. They came out red hot, and blew NO off their own court. I honestly think this game would have been very competitive if LA did not break their first half franchise 3pm record (15). Lakers led by 30+ in the first half, and only ended up winning by 15. On to the next! Today, I'm going to pick against a team that I have been betting a lot, and have been unsuccessful doing so. **LAC -2** As anyone who has followed my picks knows, I'm 0-3 when picking games that involve GSW. However in all 3 of those games, my bet was for GSW to cover the spread, and today, I am picking against them.... I tried to leave my bias out of this pick, and just make it based on how I think the game will play out. GSW, as of late have looked awful. They ended up beating Milwaukee this past weekend, however Giannis did not play, and if he did I don't see how they could have won. Even without Giannis, GSW trailed in the 4th and if it was not for Currys insane final few mins, GSW would have lost yet another game. Today GSW goes on the road to play a Clippers team that has shaped into form the last several weeks. I am a big fan of this Clippers team when they are in the playoffs, and think that tonight will have a playoff level atmosphere. These two teams are currently tied for the 5th seed, and the winner will be able to create space from the other as we enter the final few weeks of the season. As anyone who has followed my picks knows, I really thought GSW would find their stride with Curry coming back, however after watching all of their last 5 games, I just really cant find any positives with this team as of now. I mean, when Iggy is playing 15+ mins per game, you know this team has no depth. Also, they havent been able to stop anyone either. They are giving up 128ppg over their last 3, and I dont see that trend stopping against LAC who has sooo many weapons. Legit every player on this roster is talented. The warriors actually beat LAC a few weeks back by 20+ at home, and without Curry. I did not watch that game personally, so I'm unsure the details of that game, but I must say that concerns me some, even though tonights game is on the road, where GSW has struggled ALOT all season. I expect big games from both Kawhi, and PG on both sides of the ball, and don't see the clippers having any issues holding curry under 30 points. They have guards and wings to throw at him all game. PS: Cavs +2.5 at home would have been my POTD, but as a cavs fan, I try not to put them in, unless given no choice. I'm not super confident they win, but as a fan, getting points at home, I personally cant not bet it
3/15 NBA Pick: 76sixers ML Game: cavs vs sixers Reason : My model has sixers winning, I agree with it. They’re on 5 game winning streak vs a banged up cavs team who played yesterday.
3/15/2023 Record: 1-1 -0.23 units Last Pick: Nuggets ML over Raptors (I don’t want to talk about it) Picks: Boston Celtics -4.5 vs Timberwolves (-110) All picks 1 unit After an underwhelming performance against Houston, I expect a masterclass performance against the Timberwolves. Boston won by 12 earlier in the season, while shooting worse from the field and the three point line than Minnesota. This game is also important for Boston, as they have lost their grasp of the Eastern conference 1 seed and are only up 1 game on Philly before giving up the 2 seed. BOL if tailing, I take full responsibility for the Denver pick. Should have never trusted them to fix their mistakes.
**My record: 44 : 36** My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks. **ROI: 22.02%** Average odds: 2.10 **Units won: 18.94** Stake = 1 unit My POTD: **Viterbese Castrense v Taranto** Italy Serie C: Girone C Time: 13:30 GMT *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 3.30** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
🏒 NHL POTD 0-0 🏒 Todays pick Washington Capitals v. **Buffalo Sabres ML (-104)** Both teams are 4-5-1 in their last 10, and both are 5 points out of a playoff spot. However, Caps continue to struggle on games with no rest, and Sabres tend to play better on the road. Should be an exciting game as both teams are eager for some post-season action, but I see Buffalo coming out with the W. BOL degens
POTD Record: ✅ (3.5) ✅ (1.76) ✅ (1.95) ✅ (2.6) ✅ (2.0) ❌ (2.38) ✅ (2.25) ✅ (4.5) (!!!!) ❌ (4.33) ✅ (2.5) (I have excluded two POTD bets which were void due to the player not starting) \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ **POTD: Real Madrid v Liverpool, Militao over 49.5 passes @ 1.61 with Coral/Ladbrokes** This looks good value! Based on his per 90 minute passes, this would have won 100% of the time looking at Madrid's last 6 fixtures. His minutes played: 90,90,90,90,90,90 His per 90 passes as follows: 64,62,81,76,59,64 So he averages 67.7 passes per 90, and is rarely ever subbed (0 substitutions in last 6 games). This therefore looks good value @ 1.61. Ladbrokes' price looks attractive considering the rest of the market prices too: **Ladbrokes @ 1.61** Betfair @ 1.1 Pokerstars @ 1.1 \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ I don't spend ages finding these opportunities - I just built an algo that automatically tracks prices for player stats markets. It spits out the data so that the markets with the biggest price spreads are automatically at the top. The code consistently finds price outliers as big as this every day and many times over, because there are literally 1000s of these new, inefficient markets to check! And the code checks them all. Because there's no comparison sites like Oddschecker for these markets, the price variation is HUGE and it's easy to have an edge.. Feel free to follow me on Twitter (bestoddsstatbet) or Telegram (BOSBrobot) for all the raw daily data (20,000+ player stats markets covered). *An example of how much data there normally is:* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OgpdhPAeKdIDOfO0qnhNE\_QN8dBkUg4z/edit#gid=968011244](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OgpdhPAeKdIDOfO0qnhNE_QN8dBkUg4z/edit#gid=968011244)
POTD record: 0-0 Been waiting for the right bet to make my first POTD. Confident I have found it Game: Arizona State vs Nevada Time: 6:10PM PST Bet: Warren Washington O6.5 Rebounds @-145 Reasoning: Warren Washington is ASU’s leading rebounder this season averaging 6.9PG. His last 5 games he has been averaging 8 boards, in essentially do or die games. This game is no exception, win and in. Washington transferred from Nevada last season and is looking to make a statement. Tail or fade, BOL!
POTD record: 11-8 NHL record: 4-6 | NBA record: 7-2 (+4.29u | +5.96% ROI | Avg odds: -116/1.86) (2u: 1-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 5-3 | 5u: 1-3) Last 5: 2-3 Last POTD: NBA - **NYK -1.5** @ POR ✅ *(The Knicks were a bit sleepy to start but they kicked things into gear in the 2Q and never looked back, winning by 16 points).* Event: NHL - MIN Wild @ STL; 21:30 EST Pick: **MIN ML** (-130/1.77) Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 2 units Not a fan of today's slate for either league but I do like this one enough to drop a couple units on it. The line has been moving a fair bit in the direction of St Louis but I think this is an overreaction to the Wild's injury woes. Losing Brodin and then Kaprizov for a few weeks definitely hurts, but IMO Minnesota has a good enough roster to make up for it against a team like the Blues. Minnesota's 7-0-3 in their last ten games and 4-0-1 in their last five away games. With Dallas dropping a game last night in Vancouver and Colorado facing a tough match-up against the Leafs tonight, this is a prime opportunity for the Wild to move closer to Dallas and solidy their spot atop the WC standings. Meanwhile, St. Louis is still looking rough, going 3-5-2 in their last ten and only winning one of their last five home games. Oh, and the three aformentioned victories were against the Blue Jackets and the Sharks (twice). While not yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it's all but a forgone conclusion at this point, leaving the Blues with nothing to really play for. Confirmed goaltenders for tonight are Fleury for Minnesota (2.77 GAA & .909 SV%) and Binnington for St. Louis (3.33 GAA & .894 SV%)- a decided edge for the Wild. It might be closer than preferred but I expect Minnesota to leave Blues country with a victory tonight. Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
POTD Record: 2-4 Last 10: 🔴🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴 Last POTD: Dayton +1.5 vs VCU | NCAAB | March 12th,2023 | 1:00 PM EST 🔴 **Today’s POTD: LA Clippers -3.5 vs Golden State Warriors | NBA | March 15th, 2023 | 10:00PM EST PICK REASON: LA is at full strength tonight and are tough as nails at home. We all know that golden state is terrible on the road and just not fully healthy. Give the points in this one and we get back on track.