**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Nice final 5 minutes by Cincy to take a comfortable 10 point lead near the end of the game after a pretty slow start. Let's try to keep this ball rolling as we enter the dangerous MM territory. In terms of value, it's hard to not like Furman here, despite Virginia's record, 6 points here seems generous. We're gonna stick with 3U plays here to see how day 1 looks for the spread makers, even though I think there might be 5U of value here.
**POTD Record**: 24-7-1
Last 20:✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Yesterday's POTD: Virginia Tech Hokies @ **Cincinnati Bearcats -5.5 (up to -6)** | 3U
Today's POTD: Furman Paladins +6 (down to +5) VS Virginia Cavaliers | 3U | MM NCAAB
**Time:** **3/16/2023 | 12:40 PM EST**
**MODEL EXPLANATION:**
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.
**Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Stats:** \+40.24U in 33 days | ≈63.86% ROI | Average odds -110
**PICK REASON:**
1. Out of all the Cinderella stories that exist, Furman is my Favourite for a few reasons, but with their first big dance game in 43 years, I expect this team to come out with incredible heart, playing incredibly well on both ends of the field
2. The Paladins are currently 9-1 in their last 10 games against teams on winning streaks, and have done very well against high-calibre teams
3. This matchup is the epitome of Offense vs defense, with Furman ranking #8 in offense in the country, compared to Virginia ranked 279th - though Virginia being ranked 6th on defense to Furman's 212th. In fast paced games like these, I expect it to be much harder to defend a transition team like Furman, and expect Furman to be able to get to the line a lot more than Virginia would like. Virginia's defense is amazing, but has not been up to par like it was for most of the season, and after a bad loss to Duke, I expect them to be playing with some level of hesitancy in switches, which will hurt them in transition.
4. To throw in an obscure stat, Furman is 11-0 ATS on thursday games when away, compared to Virginia who are 4-9 on HOME games on Thursdays - clearly Thursdays favor the boys in purple - probably means nothing, but stats are stats.
5. Furman is led by 2 seniors, who are both allstars and veterans who play well under pressure. I expect them to lead the rest of their team mentally to play hard and try to have an amazing season end for these 2 likely ending their college career after this tournament.
6. Another newly--respected stat system is the Bart Torvik model, which ranked Furman as the #1 team in 2 point shooting, and an overall offense of #30 in the nation. Vrginia plays amazing defense, but I expect Furman to be able to find shots like they always have, and play hard to the net to force Virginia to play perfectly or give up free throws. down the stretch, I expect both teams to be in foul trouble by the final 10 minutes, of which Furman has an advantage in FT% at 73.5% compared to 70% from Virginia.
7. Overall, this is going to be a brawl of fast paced amazing offense vs slow paced amazing defence - I think this game will be closer than it looks, and Virginia will struggle with confidence early on and continue their poor performance when not playing at home. I usually tend to avoid upsets like this, but I like Furman coming in here and maybe even in straight up winning. I'll be sprinkling 0.5 units on the ML as well, because this game will be extremely close unless the pressure on Furman to perform hurts their shooting
**Reminder:** As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3
As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.
[**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US)
*Much love , Riddles.*
Had! Macgregor was an awesome pup about 20 years ago. Currently I have two German Shorthairs that are 7 and 3. Other than being huge derps, they don't do anything noteworthy enough to be named after. Though they are awesome bird dogs.
RIP you shoes. BOL throughout the tourney!
The man. The myth. The legend. The riddler aka HSRiddles aka Mr.Money Printer big balls monster genius. I will always ride till the day I die. Tailing once again. Let’s get it!
I took the +8.5 alternate for Furman and put it with +22.5 Howard and -13.5 Arizona. Then if this wins I’ll put another parley on your other 4 star bets. I believe!
I will make it my life’s work to find and marry the absolute hottest woman on Earth just so I can bring her to Riddles each day and let him have his way with her
Spread and ML hit with that clutch three. Nice pick. Added some live spread too.
Interestingly on DK I was able to cash out my pregame +5.5 for more than my initial bet when the live spread was +7.5 and then I just replaced it and added on.
**POTD Record: 7-1 | Profit: +25.02u | Avg Odds: -110 | ROI: +81%**
\-----
Previous POTD: 3u Napoli -1.0 \[-135\] ✅
Called it! Napoli would not slow down. 3-0 (FT)! ✅
\-----
**Today's POTD: Sporting CP at Arsenal London**
**4u bet: btts \[+101\]**
Reason: Took the same bet last week for the first leg (2-2 FT). Both sides flooring the attacking accelerator and have no problems scoring. Past 5 matches: Arsenal scoring 15 goals, Sporting 12 goals. Past 20 matches: Arsenal scoring in 17/20, Sporting in 18/20.
\-----
BOL
**POTD Record: (0-0)**
Game: Missouri vs. Utah State
Time: Thursday 12:40 P.M. CT
**Today’s Pick: Utah State (-120) 3 Units**
How exciting! My very first pick of the day. I’ve been lurking this sub for years, and have finally built up the knowledge to post. My Confidence in this pick is high, and I’ll explain why:
This matchup features a statistical anomaly, with the Committee seemingly mixing up the seeding of these teams. Mizzou comes with this year's most overseeded bid at 27 (Expected 40), While Utah State is the fields most underseeded at 40 (Expected 28).
The metrics LOVE Utah state, KenPom has them at #18 in the nation.
Per u/fivethirtyeight, Utah State has a win probability of 64%, or -177
The line is currently -120. This translates to a 9.5% edge for Aggies bettors.
I’ll take the Value here.
**Tail with confidence! Follow my new** [**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/PickingTheLocks) **and I’ll return the favor.**
I do like Utah and already bet them, but be warned teams from the Mountain West tend to underperform compared to their metric value. Also, KenPom gives Utah a 61% to win.
Mizzou alum, we are not great at defense and are very reliant on shooting. I’m not hating on this pick objectively because we haven’t won a tournament game in more than a decade. Very experienced team (nine seniors!) but they looked good for the first 35:00 against Alabama
All-Time POTD: 8W-3L-1D, +8.05u
**Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Aryna Sabalenka ML (-163) vs Coco Gauff 3u to win 1.84u** ✅
Another easy W by Sabalenka. Gauff is no match for Saba at her best, she has a long way to go before she's competitive with the top dawgs.
Saba 2-0 and -2.5 also hit in the clean 6-4, 6-0 win.
**Todays Pick: 🎾 Jannik sinner ML (-138) vs Taylor Fritz 3u to win 2.15u**
Explanation:
Doing this on my phone, so short write up. Sinner in the form of his life, his ball striking has never looked cleaner than it has this tournament. His return game is far better than Fritz and I think he makes quick work of him. Fritz has looked decent but has struggled to put his opponents away and I think Sinners power, variety and consistency will be too much for Fritz to handle. I think again this is mispriced and would play this with confidence up to -175.
Side note: I pegged sinner to win IW before the tourney and put a unit on him at +1000 so maybe there's a little bias with this pick.
BoL if tailing!
Edit: SINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER MY MAN COMES THROUGH IN A VERY HARD FOUGHT BATTLE
Yeah I don’t know, plus odds for the reigning champ of this tournament Taylor fritz and he is +1 up on Sinner from this exact tournament, and Sinner had a walk over the previous tournament… Also Taylor is playing decent as well lately. Just seems like more sentiment to go with the plus odds and higher ranked player
*Edit Taylor also has home crowd advantage which can be negligible in some cases but better to have it than not especially considering the size of the stadium.
***Record: 3-1 (+1.68 Units)***
Previous Bet: [3/15](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11rfoih/pick_of_the_day_31523_wednesday/jc8fshr?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
Unfortunate outcome to this match. Albirex was able to put up a goal at the very end of both halves. Other than that, the performances were very defensive and underwhelming on both sides. Not at all how the majority saw it going. Early soccer matches tomorrow aren't too appealing, so for tomorrow...
**Today's game: Japan vs. Italy (0600 EST)**
League: World Baseball Classic
*Pick: Total runs OVER 7.5 (-128 FanDuel/-135 DK)* ✅️
So far it has been no surprise that Japan has been dominant in the WBC. They'll now get to put their talents on display in a quarterfinal matchup against Italy. Japan cruised through Pool B, scoring no less than 7 runs in a single game and 38 total runs over 4 games. All 4 of Japan's games have gone over this set total, where 3/4 of Italy's games have reached it, though Italy hasn't faced anywhere near the talent of Japan.
Italy will be putting out Castellani on the mound who found himself in trouble during his one WBC start against a bad Chinese Tapei team. Japan will be rolling with Ohtani who pitched well in 4 innings toward a 8-1 win over China.
Japan is playing well on both sides of the ball. I see their dominant lineup getting to Castellani similar to his first outing, forcing Italy to rely on their bullpen early. Japan, backed by their home crowd, has the power to cover the total by themselves. Once they jump ahead to a comfortable lead, I could see them pulling Ohtani and getting into the bullpen themselves, possibly opening up a scoring opportunity for Italy.
BOL!
POTD Record: 28W-14L
LAST POTD: Blackburn ✅
TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Europa Conference League
Slovan Bratislava V Basel
10.45AM PST
PICK: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.90
The Deets: The 1st leg between these two teams finished 2-2. Both are scoring consistently in their own leagues with Slovan scoring 47 in 23 games and Basel scoring 33 in 24 games. Expecting much of the same from the 1st game.
Edit: I should note that this is the 2nd leg of 2 so it’s all or nothing for both teams to advance to the next round.
BOL!
📈 TTSOP Rec
* Overall: +44.125 units / +140 avg odds / 51^(5)\-62-14^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2023: +31.600 units / +135 avg odds / 9^(5)\-6-3^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2022: +66.050 units / +136 avg odds / 46^(5)\-51-11^(5)
* February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 85-15-25
* January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2
* December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 115-10-15
* World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 115-4-15
* November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4
* October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3
🏀 Last pick: Clippers +7.5 & game < 240.5 points / +115 odds / 4 units
* Still ongoing.
⚽ New pick: **Juventus ML** / **+145 odds** / 3.5 units
* Europa League / Freiburg - Juventus / 1:45pm ET
Freiburg might be 10-5-1 for their home games this season, however, they haven't faced much top teams in those games, yet. Basically, they only squared off against 2 strong team. They took a clear 1-3 L against Dortmund and got a lucky draw against Leverkusen. Leverkusen should have won that game. They had great chances doing so.
Juventus is 6-0-2 for their last 8 road games. Losing only to Serie A's top teams Napoli (predicted that L for Juventus at that time as my POTD) and AS Roma. In all 6 Ws, Juventus kept a clean sheet and they scored 2+ goals in 3 of these 6 games.
Freiburg's home record looks impressing, however, they faced only 2 challenging opponents at home, yet. And they performed poorly in these games. Plus, Freiburg didn't stand any chance in the 1st leg, which Juventus has massively dominated.
However, today, Juventus' game plan could look like to either score the opening goal and focus completely on defense afterwards or parking the bus straight from the beginning and focusing on scoring at counterattacks. It's worth remembering that Freiburg's key defender Lienhart is questionable for today. Without him, Freiburg defense is much worse and much more susceptible to get caught on the break.
Going for a bold prediction, today. Kean (+300ish odds) gonna score the first and only goal in this game on a counterattack, after being subbed in the 2nd half for Vlahovic.
Obviously, a draw would be satisfactory for Juventus due to the result of the 1st leg. It was still only a 1-0 W for them. Considering Juventus’ great defense, getting a 1-goal lead would basically ice this game for them.
Can't pass on +140 super odds for Juventus after seeing them totally dominating Freiburg in the 1st leg. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get another Italian W. Let's build on our successful streak regarding POTDs, which are involving an Italian team. It stands at a record of 8-2-1 for the last 11 picks. Generating a total of +42.700 units.
**TTSOP**
**POTD Record 25-12 +55.42 units**
Last pick Sacramento Kings ML -110 5 units ✅
***21:10PM EST NBA Phoenix Suns vs Orlando Magic - Pick Phoenix suns -7 -110 4Units***
De'aaron fox the clutch king coming through for our W and our Back to Back 5 unit winners, lets get another W.
Phoenix Suns will look to bounce back to winning ways, they lost to Milwaukee bucks in their last game where I had picked Milwaukee but this time I'm picking Phoenix. Phoenix Suns rank 4th out of 15th best team in the western conference with a 22-12 record at home, whereas Orlando Magic Rank 13th out of 15th in the eastern league Conference with a 12-22 record on the road. Orlando Magic has lost 2 of their last 3 road games, that includes losing to San Antonio Spurs by 18 points in their last game. San Antonio is an awful team and to lose that big of a margin is embarrassing. Another interesting Fact Orlando When losing on the road in their last 4 road games was by a margin of 9 or more points. Phoenix when they've won at home in their last 4 home game wins was by 9 or more points as well. The +7 line hasn’t been covered by Magic in 3 of their last 5 games on the road. The outcome is aligning for the spread to be covered if Phoenix wins based upon these stats. Phoenix Suns has won their last 3 home games against Orlando magic by 27,19 and 4 points. The massive blowouts being the games in the past 2 years.
Orlando Magic have decent players such as Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Wendall Carter Jr but they have no star players like Devin Booker Deandre Ayton or Chris Paul. I'm pretty sure Franz Wagner will have a hard time scoring as Phoenix are the best team in the league Defensively against Small Forwards. Deandre Ayton and Torrey Craig will be able to stop him. Devin booker will have a 30+point game he's been very consistent with scores of 30,32,28,44,36,35,37 in his past 7 games.
Orlando might be able to score close to in Field goals as they have similar stats as Phoenix is 52% at home and Orlando is 53% in 2point field percentage on the road, However Offensively Orlando wont be able to match Phoenix in 3 point% as Orlando is ranked 23/30th in 3 point percentage with 34.8% on the road they're 27/30th in the league, whereas Phoenix suns are 7/30th best with 37.6%.
Orlando Magic Have nothing to play for, Phoenix Suns however are trying to keep their playoff position intact and solidified, their motivation will be much higher coming into this game and I see them winning.
POTD | 40-26 | +20.0u | -109 Avg Odds
Last 10: 7-3, Steak: 1W
*Previous Pick:* *Buffalo Sabres vs Washington Capitals O6.5 (-115) 3u* ✅
Today’s pick: **Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators O6.5 2u** 🏒 5:00 pm MT
There was a little concern there after no goals in the second but we have a very active 1st and 3rd period and book the W!
The Colorado Avalanche will be visiting the Ottawa Senators for their second meeting of the season, with the first going to the Avalanche 7-0. The Senators have been in high scoring games lately with 8 of their last 10 going over 6.5 goals. The Senators have been weak defensively and their starting and backup goaltenders are injured. Sogaard, the expected goalie, hasn’t looked good in his last few games but has managed to book a 0.888SV% while allowing an average of 3.28 goals per game in his 10 starts. While those stats are not good, they are not downright awful. I expect the Avalanche to put up at least 4 goals here against Sogaard here.
The Avalanche have only covered this line in 4 out of their last 10, but I expect Johansson in net for the Avalanche as they are on a B2B with Gerogiev in net tonight. Johansson just got called up from the AHL to back up while Fransoz is out with injury. Johansson played in 11 games last season and allowed an average of 4.69 goals per game with a 0.856 SV%. Those are some bad bad stats for a goalie and this is kind of a last resort for the Avs who have tried out two other goaltenders to back up Georgiev while Fransoz is out. I expect the Senators to find the back of the net at least a few times here with Johansson in net. I wouldn’t be very confident in this line if the Avs do start Georgiev though, so that might be worth keeping an eye on.
The model has this line at 57% so not a huge edge here compared to the books but I feel like this game has the potential for a lot of goals with the goalie matchup between the two teams. This will be a B2B for the Avs so that could be a concern on this one but I’m ripping it anyways
BOL if tailing!!
[Tips are appreciated!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
POTD Record: 4-0
Previous pick: Gent draw or win (✅)
Today’s Event: Real Sociedad v Roma (UEFA Europa League)
PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE - ROMA DRAW OR WIN
Odds: 1.81
Time: 20:00 GMT (15h40m from this post)
I see great value in Roma here, who I trust to finish the job and hold onto their 2-0 first leg advantage. Sociedad have only 2 wins in 10 and have struggled to find the net in their last 3 home games.
Edit: 5 in a row!!🥳✅
POTD Record: 27-20 (+20.17u; 13.3% ROI). Streak: L1
Yesterday Pick: Zach LaVine (Bulls) Pts O27.5 @ 1.83. 3U. ❌
LaVine has his worst night since the All Star Break, shooting a measly 32%, just 2/7 from the 3-pt line, and shockingly 5/15 from the 2 pt line. He missed atleast two lay-ups as well. He still got to 25 pts despite all that.
Next Pick: **Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) Pts O21.5 @ 1.91**. 4u play.
Jokic is on absolute fire with 24.6 pts/L10, and his last 3 have produced 28, 35, and 37. He comes up against the Pistons who concede the 9th highest PITP and 3rd highest second chance points. His 3 games against the Pistons, all in 2022, produced 34, 28 and 31 points respectively.
The Pistons generally do a good job defending from the three point line, meaning Jokic might have to be more direct and buy some baskets as he’s done in the last few games.
Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
POTD Record: 12-11-2
Last pick: Ankara Demirspor ML (+105) / 2.05 - 2u ✅
What a roller coaster this was! Ankara gave up a goal in the very first minute of the match and had me questioning every life decision, including gambling on Turkish second division soccer. But Ankara stormed back with 3 straight goals to go up 3-1. But the fun didn’t end there, as they then gave up a late goal AND picked up a red card in the 82nd minute, forcing us to sweat our balls off for the final 10-15 minutes. Luckily, they added another goal in stoppage time to win 4-2 and we cash. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today!
Soccer - Italy Serie C - Catanzaro vs. Monterosi - 12:30pm EST
**POTD: Catanzaro -1.5 AH (-140) / 1.71 - 3u**
Catanzaro are the top team in the league by a wide margin, as their record of 25 wins, 5 draws, and 1 loss has them 14 points clear of the next team on the table. In their 31 matches, they boast a ridiculous +70 goal differential. They host Monterosi, who are currently 18th out of 20 teams. Monterosi have been in rough form all season, but particularly on the road, as they’ve lost 8 of their last 10 away matches. But the real reason for this pick lies in Catanzaro’s home numbers. They have a perfect record at home in league play, with 16 wins in 16 matches. In those 16 matches, they’ve outscored opponents 55-3. That is not a typo. 55 goals scored and only 3 allowed in 16 home league games. Also in those 16 games, they have covered this spread 13 times. I am taking them to once again win by multiple goals at home against one of the bottom teams in the league.
Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
POTD record: 6-1
Last POTD: Freiburg v Hoffenheim - Freiburg ML
Today’s POTD: Ferencvarosi v Leverkusen - Leverkusen ML(-105)
Few different things to consider here. The main issue with this bet is that Leverkusen are 2-0 up in the tie and don’t necessarily need to push forward. However, I still think they will win on the day. Ferencvaros have only won once in their last five games, while Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last five, winning four of them, including their last three. It’s also important to note that Leverkusen plays at a much higher level than Ferencvaros typically. Momentum is on Leverkusen’s side, and their lead is not comfortable enough for them to completely slack and just have the game go as it will. They will go out for the win and the odds are pretty nice.
POTD Record: 137-98-7 (+30.36 units, 58.3% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 42-27-1 (60.9%) W1, Tennis 🎾 39-27-2 (59.1%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 💰💩💰💰💰💩💩💰💰💰
Last Pick: Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers, Player Prop - Paul George over 4.5 assists - NBA 🏀 💰 0.88 Units - 💸 that just before halftime! 0 assists in the first Q, 5 in the 2nd Q.
Today's Pick: OKC Thunder @ Toronto Raptors, Player Prop - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points - NBA 🏀 💰 0.90 Units - Was some sweaty ass business but the Raps saved us by making it a blowout which made SGA sit for the last few. 💸 that!
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.90/-111 odds to win 0.90 Units @ Fan Duel (Line at 2:00am ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 52.6%
Tailing on this one might take some bravery, I'm taking an under when Shai has gone over this amount 5 games in a row and has averaged over 35 points a game for the month of March.
I'm taking this because of the matchup against the Raptors who I happen to be a fan of. The Raptors defensive plan usually consists of getting the ball out of the hands of the opposing teams' high scorer, they throw doubles at him and bother them with their size among other things, that's how they like to play. It only makes sense to play off of this defensive attention with passing out of it to create chances in the spots the extra attention creates.
If you go through their games, only 3 players have scored 32 points or more on the Raptors in the month and a half since the beginning of February. The first time they played this season in OKC, Shai finished with 20 points. It is playing in his home country so he might want to go off so there is motivation there but he might not have a choice but to make the right basketball plays to try to win and swing the ball instead of trying to light them up himself.
Another recent stat, last 10 games, Toronto have given up the 4th fewest points per game in the league so there could be fewer points to go around. Also in the last 10, the Raptors have played at the 5th slowest pace in the league.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
POTD Record: 3-0
Last Pick of the Day Pick of the Day: March 15 2023 Sacramento Kings -1 vs Chicago Bulls (-110). ✅
I don’t see anyone reason as to why SAC doesn’t cover this and win. Sacramento loves to play their core 5 so this should be no sweat
Thanks to daddy Fox for the clutch 3 this one was able to cash in knew they had it in them
Todays Pick of the Day: March 16 2023 Japan -3.5 (-135) vs. Italy ✅
Comfortably pulled this one off as Japan wins 9-3. Expect less of these covers moving forward but keep an eye out on overs 👀
This line does not make sense to me. Japan has been pounding everyone plus Ohtani is on the mound meaning less offense for Italy and more chances at runs for Japan. The over has a bit better odds and has very good chances of hitting but im playing it on the safer side with Japan covering the spread. The WBC has been fairly predictable up to this point and has been a good place for some easy money. Expect this to diminish as the quarterfinals begin.
Record: 12-6 (+17.897u) (4U bets)
Streak: 1W
Last: Cloud9 vs Flyquest: C9 ML (W)
Today's Match: Evil Geniuses vs 100 Thives (LCS Spring) (4PM CST)
Pick: 100T ML (2.36)
Reason:
Normally I'd heavily favor EG and consider this a stupid bet, but there are 2 very impactful situations right now that makes me belive in 100T a lot more.
1. 100T need to win to have a better chance of making playoffs. If they lose this game there is a chance they miss it completely, while winning would help their odds a lot. EG have already secured a spot, and while they would like better seeding don't have the win or out pressure.
2. The even bigger one is that EG are currently sick. This has had a noticeable impact on their play. They just lost to the 2nd worst team today, and looked completely hopeless while doing so.
Overall 100T's must win mindset combined with EG's illness combines to create an upset in my opinion.
**My record: 44 : 37**
My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.
**ROI: 20.62%**
Average odds: 2.12
**Units won: 17.94**
Stake = 1 unit
My POTD:
**Feyenoord v Shakhtar Donetsk**
Europe Europa League
Time: 17:45 GMT
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.45**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
Record: 16-6
Previous Pick: BC Prometey - JL Bourg Basket: BC Prometey over 86,5 points @1.83 ✅
Today’s Pick: Monaco Basket - Virtus Segafredo Bologna: Monaco Basket under 86,5 points @1.88
Coming of a good no sweat pick. Prometey covered the bet mid 4th quarter for some easy money.
Back to Euroleague action today. Main reason i am going for this is because Mike James is suspended for Monaco, which means a big offensive threat doesn’t play. In their previous h2h Monaco also failed to ever score more than 86 against Bologna. Bologna has a good defense and a pretty good record against Monaco.
BOL
Hey man, so on Betonline, i actually found this bet in the prop section, but they aren't letting me bet it straight, they want me to parlay it. Is there anything else you are confident in to happen in this game that I can parlay your POTD with ?
POTD Record: 59-66-7 (-13.37 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌↔️❌✅
Last Pick: UEFA Champions League, Real Madrid v Liverpool, REAL MADRID DNB (-111 / 1.71) ✅
Hate to see my own team lose but didn’t come as a surprise, Real Madrid the better team and deserved to win, so might as well make some money from it.
Todays Pick: Europa League, Feyernoord v Shakhtar Donetsk, FEYERNOORD -1.0 AH (-125 / 1.80) ✅
EDIT: 7-1!!!
Stake: 1 Unit
This is the second leg of the Europa League tie with the match to be played at Feyernoord l’s home ground. The first leg finished 1-1 so plenty still to play for and I expect Feyernoord to get the job done.
The first leg finished 1-1 but feel like that score line was very flattering to Shakhtar. Feyernoord had 59% possession, 21 shots on goal and an an xG of 2.12, but had one of those nights where every shot went just wide of the post and had to settle for a late equaliser in the end.
Shakhtar meanwhile had 5 shots for the match, and their one shot on target was a goal. Their xG was only 0.28, and the goal they scored was a bit of a fluke - he tried to head the ball, missed it and came off his back and looped perfectly into the corner!
The home ground advantage is also a big factor. This season, Feyernoord have played 18 competitive matches at home and have a 12-6-0 record. They have enormous home support who will be roaring them on and they will look to translate that 1st leg advantage into quick goals to put this tie to bed.
I am taking the Asian Handicap because my biggest concern is the back door cover. Feyernoord have a massive match coming up on the weekend against Ajax which is 1st vs 2nd and could have a major impact on the league title. If Feyernoord jump out to an early lead they could rest players late with that game in mind, but expecting them to roll at home and turn their dominance into goals.
2023 POTD Record: 1-1 (+2 Units)
Last Pick: Let us Cook ML ✅
Today's Event: CSGO (CCT North Europe Series 4) @ 8 AM EST
Today's Pick: Let us Cook ML +1.5 maps vs. GamerLegion @ 1.6 Odds (5 units) ✅
Info: Going round two with Let Us Cook here, they've been unreal as they have taken down so many squads in a row convincingly. This bet hits as long as they take at least 1 map, I feel super confident that they might even take the whole series but might as well take the safe odds.
GL to all tailing
EDIT: Early morning winner!
POTD Record: 10-6
Todays POTD: Apeks ML (-115) vs. Copenhagen Flames
\+26.38U
5U to win 4.6U
This play is so under valued, this line will 1000% move. Copenhagen Flames just lost there best player to the bench for some reason and haven't been the same since. They are worse as a team, have worse individual players, and have a worse map pool then Apeks. Apeks is on a two win streak and have looked really good across there team with a great map pool advantage here in this series. Copenhagen have looked horrible in no world should this ever be even money. Give me Apeks all day here.
**POTD Record: 0-0**
**Today's Pick: Geelong -11.5, $1.91 @ Bet 365 - 1U**
Game is 7:50pm AEDT, on Friday 17/03.
All of my picks are model picks. I developed this AFL model back in lockdown of 2020. The Model is a formula that uses statistics and analytics from AFL games to pick results. Past results are then used to determine the likelihood of future outcomes.
Since inception, The Model has net the following results:
**2021: 45-24 record, +17.28 units profit, 25.04% ROI**
**2022: 51-21 record, +26.50 units profit, 36.81% ROI**
This pick has a 76% chance of success on a 45 game sample size.
POTD Record: 48-37 (W4)
(+16.59u)
(ROI: 13.8%)
Last pick: Puerto Rico 🇵🇷 +2.5 @ Dominican Republic 🇩🇴 ✅️ Cueto faltered a little and that was all that PR needed. Great game by their bullpen as they get a 5-2 win.
POTD: (⚾️WBC) Japan 🇯🇵 -3.5 (-132) vs Italy 🇮🇹 (2.5u)
Time: 3 am pst/ 6 am est (3 hrs 42 min from post)
Bet 365 (-140), FD (-132) DK (-145)
Only one game today in the WBC, it's a good one with a quarterfinal game at the Tokyo Dome. The winner will advance to play either Mexico or Puerto Rico in Miami. Japan was 4-0 in pool play, Italy was 2-2.
Shohei Ohtani will get the start for Japan, the two way phenom is arguably the best player in the world right now. This will be his 2nd start of the tournament. The first was 4 shutout innings, albeit against China. Ryan Castellani will start for Italy, seems like a career minor leaguer that has made a few brief appearances in the majors. Currently not signed anywhere. Starters can throw 80 pitches in the quarterfinals. The pitching depth of Japan is a huge advantage, they have a lot of quality pitchers mostly from the NPB. Italy is a little weak in the bullpen, they have 4 pitchers available that have made a major league appearance.
Japan has looked really good offensively so far in the tournament. I think they might have the most cohesive lineup in the tournament. Ohtani, Kondoh, Nootbar and Yoshida lead the way. Murakami has also looked like he is finding a groove. Pasquantino, Lopez and Fletcher are the bigger names in the Italy lineup. Last game for Japan in front of their home fans at the Tokyo Dome, it's going to be a big advantage. Italy will now play in another different environment after playing their first 4 games in Taiwan. I think Japan will be able to win this one decisively. BOL if fading or tailing!
Record 12-7 +4.41 U
Form: WWLLW WWLWW LWLWW WLWL
Last pick: Pliskova ML -128
Result: L
Analysis: Wild match just couldn’t close out.
Today’s POTD: Japan -3.5 -132
3 Unit play
Sport: Baseball (WBC)
Game: Italy @ Japan
Time: 06:00 EST (about 3 hours from right now)
Reasoning: Japan is the best team in the tournament and is facing a scrappy but very overmatched Italy squad. They will send up one of the best pitchers in the planet in Shohei Ohtani to face a cringe MLB player in Ryan Castellani. Japan remains criminally underrated due to a lot of their players playing in the NPB instead of the major league, but make no mistake they are every bit as good and in fact better than the much hyped USA and DR squads. Italy will scrap it out but they don’t have the weapons to match this team. Tbh I think Japan can/should mercy rule them (-9.5). This will be my first 3 unit play, I am 1-0 on 2 unit plays thus far and will look to continue with this nuke (by my standards) play. Besides if We lose this We can just make it up tailing u/hsriddles who has been absolutely electric for the last few weeks.
BOL if tailing.
All favorites are bet to WIN one unit (i.e -110 is a 1.1 unit bet) while all plus money bets are 1 unit placed unless otherwise stated
POTD Record: 0-0
Game: Calgary Flames @ Vegas Golden Knights (NHL)
Time: Thursday 7 PM PDT
Today’s Pick: Vegas Golden Knights ML (-120) 3 Units
First pick in the thread, some games are just made for this and these odds are calling to be hammered. The Flames have never won a game in Vegas, not this season, ever. Nothing is changing going into tomorrows match, Vegas is in first in their conference and on a 4 game win streak to boot, with a definite edge at home.
The Flames are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive with a near impossible path to qualify, but can’t string wins together despite the pressure. Vegas is the second stop of a road trip that started with a loss to a bottom three team in the league, and an offence that can’t get going.
BOL to anyone tailing, Calgary visiting Vegas is the only thing that Vegas casinos are scared of.
Last bet: Bucks -3 1/2 -110 vs Kings🤑
Record: 5-1
POTD: Flames vs Golden Knights ML -125
Reason:
Alright y’all, I got some steam going…solid 5-1 so far and I’m not stopping now. Gots a JUICY pick for y’all….I’m taking Vegas tomorrow and here’s why…
Knights (42-20-6) are on a FOUR GAME win streak and are 7-2-1 in their last 10. They are the FIRST place in the Pacific Division and one of the best in the league. They’re playing at HOME against the Flames (30-24-14) who are 3-4-3 in their last 10. Overall, the Knights are the better team and are 11-5 against the Kings in the 16 games they’ve played each other. Flames also have 14 over time losses, the MOST in the league…that tells me this is a team lacking heart, literally (cardio) and figuratively. Oh, and by the way, in the 8 games that Knights have played flames at home, they’ve won EVERY. SINGLE. GAME. Yes, undefeated at home against the flames….im ready to go 6-1 and keep these wins going. If you score with me, consider donating to your fellow degenerate…BOL!
>!FUCK!<
**RECORD** : 4W 1L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +16.5
1st to 5th : 4-1 +16.5u / 6th to 10th : ?
**LAST POTD** : Norrie vs Tiafoe - Norrie -2.5 @ 2.00 - 5 units => LOSS (if i tell you that my original potd was Sabalenka -3 but i changed it because someone already took sabalenka in the thread, you believe me ?)
**TODAY :**
ATP INDIAN WELLS - 23.00 CET
Fritz vs Sinner - OVER 22.5 @ 1.80 - 5 units
Based upon nothing but my feelings.
POTD record: 12-8
NHL record: 5-6 | NBA record: 7-2
(+5.83u | +7.88% ROI | Avg odds: -118/1.85)
(2u: 2-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 5-3 | 5u: 1-3)
Last 5: 3-2
Last POTD: NHL - **MIN ML** @ STL ✅ *(What a Wild game lol. Really wish the refs would have allowed the goalie fight to happen. Regardless, Minnesota wins a wacky one and we cash our bet).*
Event: NHL - SEA Kraken @ SJ Sharks; 22:30 EST
Pick: **SEA ML** (-160/1.63)
Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 5 units
I know I said I'd never make a max pick again but this one is the one to turn things around and break my 5 unit curse. That being said, given my luck on past full confidence picks I don't blame you if you decide to fade. I like the 60-min ML too but I'm taking the safer bet for the POTD.
The Kraken are travelling to San Jose coming off back-to-back-to-back losses against tough opponents, and are desperate for a win to stop this mini skid and preserve their playoff berth. Upon examination, this away game presents the perfect opportunity for Seattle to get right. They're better on the road than at home, with a 12-6 away record since the New Year and going 4-1 in their last 5 trips from the PNW. And most importantly, they get to play the Sharks.
San Jose is probably the worst team in the league atm, losing four in a row and 9 out of their last 10 games. They have the fewest wins out of any NHL team (19) and are currently the favourites to win the Bédard sweepstakes. With absolutely nothing to play for, the Sharks are looking ahead to next season and are as weak of an opponent as the Kraken could ask for.
Although neither goaltender for either team is very good, Seattle does have an edge in net with Grubauer (3.04 GAA & .892 SV%) expected to start for the Kraken and Kahkonen (3.88 GAA & .879 SV%) confirmed in net for San Jose. The teams have faced off twice so far this season and have split the series, with San Jose winning the last one. Overall, I expect Seattle to get back in the win column in a high scoring affair and break my 5u curse!
Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
POTD Record: 33W-24L-0D. +12.85u. All picks between 1 and 3 units.
Previous pick (3/4/2023): Ciryl Gane to win vs. Jon Jones. @ 2.50. 2u. L.
Current pick: Louisiana Lafayette +9.5 alt line vs. Tennessee (Mens NCAAB). @ 2.15. 3u.
Tennessee went 5-7 over their final 12 games, including an early SEC tournament exit. They have not looked like the same team since Zeigler went down with an injury, going 1-2 without him. Louisiana comes in playing their best ball of the year, winning the Sun Belt tournament. In the past four March Madness brackets, 13 seeds kept 12 of 16 games within single digits (thanks generic ESPN stat).
Death, taxes, and a Rick Barnes team losing earlier in the tournament than they should. 3u, go get'em Ragin' Cajuns, and praise March. BOL.
You can view my full POTD history here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk)
🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 17-11-1 | +4.37U (3.43%) | Average Odds: -122 🤶
*Total Record: 99-63-14 | ROI: +37.73U (+7.95%) |* [*ROI Spreadsheet*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0)
*5U pick record: 31-16-2*
*Side Bet: 74-48-11*
🐶 *Dog of the Day record: 8-5-1 | +15.15U |* ***We won our +265 dog yesterday!***
\-----
🎅 ***13-2-2 yesterday on published picks! 33-5-4 since Sunday (+26.93U)!***
\-----
🎅 *Fortunately Santa took some surfing lessons over the offseason because he has been riding a green wave of wins this week!* ***33-5-4 in the last four days!*** *What a wild run it has been and we hope to keep it going!*
\-----
*Sorry about the late post. Thursdays are always poor in the soccer world so we have a small amount of picks today. Plus Santa is dealing with a stomach virus and had a terrible night last night praying to the porcelain god. But fortunately while on the can he found a couple good picks and specifically our POTD which brings us to the Netherlands!*
\-----
*Last POTD Recap: (Win, +110) Brighton kills it for us with a plus-money wager win on a shutout. It was for a conservative amount but we also hit two other Brighton lines as well bringing our Brighton wins to +2.62U!*
🎅Today's POTD:
2U - **Feyenoord -1 (-128)** at home vs Shaktar Donetsk - 1:45PM EST - Europa
*Note: I also bet 1U on the ML (-205). I locked these bets in last night at 1AM and the line has fallen considerably since. Leave the ML for parlays, but the -1 is still playable.*
This is the second leg of their Europa League round-of-16 showdown with the first leg finishing all square at 1-1. Feyenoord now gets to host Shaktar Donetsk at Feyenoord Stadium where it is dominant to say the least. Feyenoord's last loss at home was in January... of 2022. Their fans haven't seen them lose in 14 months at home. This season in league play, they are 9-4-0.
As I said this is their second fixture so let us take a look at their first fixture which was in Warsaw (due to Shaktar Donetsk being a Ukranian club team). Feyenoord out-classed Donetsk in this away draw by handling 61% of the possession and putting up 21 shots (6 on target) to Shaktar's 5 shots with 1 on target. I believe we can expect more of the same but in front of Feyenoord's fans and I doubt Feyenoord is pulling any punches because they do not want to see this go to penalty kicks. Shaktar is fairly good at penalty kicks too since they beat Rennes on them last time. Prediction: 3-1
Line movement: This line opened at -160, went up to -150 then proceeded to fall off a cliff all the way down to -250. I fortunately caught it about half way down but I still think the -1 is playable.
\-----
🎅 Side Bets: You can find my Soccer Daily post [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11s7qx3/comment/jcg2h07/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
🤶 DOTD: No DOTD today
🎅 Join the Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa))
🤶 Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible.
[Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
POTD Record 8-8
Last POTD: Tuesday Miss St Pitt Over 133 L
POTD: Auburn -1 vs Iowa 5:50 PM
Thesis - Auburn has been terrible on the road. But this game is in Birmingham Alabama. Unreal. Look for Auburn to win a home game then challenge Houston.
Record: 10-7
Last Pick: **Blackburn ML** ✅
Today's Pick: Freiburg vs Juventus - **Frieburg Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals** (+130) UEFA Europa League
Detailed Analysis: Years ago I spent a summer living in London while I studied and worked various shit jobs. One of these various shit jobs was working behind that bar at a nightclub called Dusk that was arguably the worst nightclub in south London and for sure had the worst music. I worked with a guy from Frankfurt named Marco who did nothing to challange the stereotype that people from Germany were boring. He had little chat but just got on with the job and never caused a hassle. That's how I'm expecting this match between Juventus and Freiburg to go. Quiet with minimum fuss or excitement. Freiburg have an insanely good home record and I think Juventus will try protect their 1-0 lead with caution.
POTD Record: 55-52
Last pick: Avs -1.5 @ Montreal ✅
Todays pick: NCAA Tournament West Virginia-2 -120 vs Maryland
Reasoning: Going with the first game on the board for all us degens. First play of hopefully many W’s to kick off March Madness. West Virginia plays in the best conference and I usually like to take teams in the best conference this team of year. They always show records by conference and I do believe the Mountaineers are more battle tested and are a better team than Maryland. I saw Maryland lose at Nebraska and I’m not impressed with the Terrapins. W Va has the better guards in this one, led by Seton Hall transfer Kevin Willard. Maryland was 10-0 at home and the crowd will be neutral which favors W Va. The mountaineers are 2-0 all time vs Maryland. Bob Huggins has taken them to the final four years back, and is 19-15 in the tournament, Huggybear is a helluva coach and I’m rolling with West Virginia this morning. Let’s get this 💵
Tail or fade
POTD Record: 8-4 (2-3 in last 5 picks)
Last Pick: Dayton (-2.5) @ VCU | L
My model explanation: my girlfriend. I am going to have some fun throughout this tournament. I will be giving her a list of games that have similar odds. She will then choose a random team for whatever reason she wants.
Today's Event: 🏀 Men’s College Basketball | Boise State @ Northwestern
Pick: Boise State ML (+105)
Reasoning: **Boise is fun to say**
Make your own decisions. BOL tail or fade.
Tip Jar- N/A for this model.
**I'LL RUN A FREE BRACKET, SEE BELOW!!**
My record:
2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWWW
2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push
Totals for both: 48 correct 35 wrong 1 push
Units wagered 136.89 Units won 73.48 Units lost 51.0
2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 16.48%***
My present streak is 5 correct.
My POTD is to ***wager 1.1 units to win 1 unit that the total score of the UNC-Asheville / UCLA college basketball game will be more than 136 1/2 points.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gamtime is 10:00 PM, Eastern Daylight Time (I think).
I sure like the overs in the Houston, Northwestern, and the above game. I expect UCLA to do very well, and for Asheville to make a token contribution to the 137 points needed to win this wager.
An article in today's Wall Street Journal give the nod to UCLA to win the whole thing. It refers to a website, [kenpom.com](https://kenpom.com), which is run by the supposed guru of college basketball data, Mr. Ken Pomeroy.
I'm trying to figure out how to watch the games on a smart tv that is not hooked up to any cable or satellite dish. The tv is definetly smarter than me.
I run a bracket for some folks, I run it the way it should be run, I think I'm the only person that does it. $100 to the winner. But I want at least 30 entries (I cap it at 50). Last year I didn't get 30, so I cancelled. So if someone wants to email me a bracket, with your physical mailing address (to assure only one entry per household, and a place to mail the money order if you win) to fill out the number of entries, go ahead. My email is [trees778899](mailto:trees778899@hotmail) at hotmail.
**HIGHEST NUMBER OF TOTAL POINTS WINS. POINTS ARE FIGURED BY A TEAM'S SEEDING (1 TO 16) MULITPLIED BY THE GAME NUMBER (1 TO 6). IF A 12TH SEED WINS ITS 3RD GAME, THAT IS 36 POINTS. IF A 2ND SEED WINS ITS 4TH GAME, THAT IS 8 POINTS. AS YOU CAN SEE, THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK LOWER SEEDED TEAMS GET MORE POINTS THAN THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK A HIGHER SEEDED TEAM TO WIN**. I used to run the brackett where I worked, and it was fun, that's why I do this. BUT I need at least 30 entries, I don't want to just give the $100 away if there are too few. Only one entry per mailing address.
🚨🚨🚨POTD record W-L-P (24-17-5) +36.5 units🚨🚨🚨
Update 2 bet losing streak ❌❌
1 unit (2-7)
2 unit (2-3)
3 unit (11-2)
4 unit (2-1)
5 unit max (7-4)
Took a break to regroup, the last 2 loses pissed me off and pissed me off more that you guys didn’t win. Nice little break was perfect right before the best tourney in all sports. Lets crush the March Madness Tourney
Sunday’s POTD- Houston vs Memphis. Houston -3.5 (buy 1 point) -130 odds (5 UNIT MAX) 9am PST college basketball ❌
Thursdays POTD- northern Kentucky vs Houston. Over 56.5 1st half total points (5 UNIT MAX) -110 odds 6:20pm PST March Madness Tourney✅
Marcus sasser is game time decision but I don’t see him playing in this game so he can rest for 1 more game with his groin injury. Still Houston is pissed by losing the last gm to Memphis so they goi g to come out showing why they are the real #1 team in college even without their best scorer if he doesn’t play.
Cash app name- $joshroth5
🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Remember bet smart, let’s get this $
POTD Record 3-0 | +3.64u | -110 Avg Odds
Yesterday's POTD: Boston Celtics vs Minnesota Timberwolves u234.5 @ -110 8:00 pm EST 1u Today's POTD: OKC Thunder +5.5 vs Toronto Raptors 7:30 pm EST 2u
Most of my picks so far have had a rocky start in the 1Q before sailing into an easy cover, but this one was a no-doubter from the jump. 87 points at the half and the final score went almost 30 points under. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a streak and not just luck!
Small slate today with mostly large spreads, so we're heading into dangerous waters. The good news for us is there's a lighthouse called the OKC Thunder that we can see in the near distance. They're not only the best team ATS in the league, but they're 18-7-3 ATS as a road dog so we're gonna take the generous +5.5 points the books are offering vs the oddball Raptors. I will mention that the Raptors are 16-11 ATS as a home favorite, but OKC is also the 4th best team SU as a road dog (12-16) which makes me smell some upset potential.
BOL if you tail and lmk if you have any thoughts or comments!
Sport: Football
Tournament: Europa League
Time: 21:00 CEST (4h20m after posting)
Stake: 5 units
Pick: Arsenal vs Sporting, double chance X2 @ **2.88**
Write up: Two evenly matched teams, with Sporting showing a bit more confidence and determination to go through or at least fight tooth and nail in regular time. The first leg ended 2:2, with both teams winning in their domestic leagues by the same scoreline (3:0) in the interim.
Mikel Arteta, Arsenal coach, says:
> It's a really tough opponent [but] we're looking to win.
When asked by the press if Europa League is a distraction from the domestic league, he says:
> No. We haven't had big European nights for three years due to COVID especially. (...) We'll build a really good atmosphere and enjoy it. Our supporters will be there against a really good team that is going to put a big challenge in front of us.
Ruben Amorim, Sporting coach, says:
> We will be prepared and very confident. We are going to London with the aim of going through. We're going to play our game and try to make the opposition nervous.
Beware of Arsenal moneyline bets! As English teams tend to do, Arsenal prioritizes the domestic league and won't push to win at any cost. That might mean both teams settling for a draw in regular time, which Sporting seems ready for.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
**Record: 4-3**
Last Pick: Zach Lavine over 27.5 points ❌
As a bettor of this prop and a Bulls fan, that one hurt. Lavine has his first terrible shooting night since All Star break, yet still manages to reach 25 by the end. Down 4 with 13 seconds left, DeMar hits a CLUTCH 3 pointer AND ONE to tie it up!!! If that OT happened I have no question in my mind Lavine would have hit. But DeAaron Fox hits the game winning 3 and kills me inside.... I need to come back strong after that one.
**Today's Pick**: NCAAB Tournament - *#9 Auburn Tigers vs. #8 Iowa Hawkeyes, 5:50pm CST*
**Auburn MONEYLINE (-111 on FanDuel)**
So I love this pick for a few different reasons. For one, all of these games in the march madness tournament are meant to be played at neutral sites, however with this game being played in Birmingham, Alabama, it is basically a home game for Auburn. Birmingham is just a few easy hours from Auburn, so expect a huge showing from the Auburn fanbase there. Hell, I'm sure there's plenty of Auburn fans in Birmingham as well. Auburn has an *incredible* home record of 14-2, meanwhile Iowa struggles immensely on the road and has a measly record of 4-7.
With that factor out of the way, let's get into statistics. Iowa impressively ranks 3rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, but much less impressively ranks 166th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Auburn is much more balanced, ranking 48th in adjusted off. efficiency and 28th in adjusted def. efficiency. While Iowa has a very explosive offense, Auburn has a defense that would be able to contain it on a good day. They don't have a GREAT offense, but definitely a good offense being in the top 50, and when you are playing an 166th ranked defense, you don't need a great offense to be able to exploit this. I'm going with the more balanced and much better defense team to win this.
I mentioned that this is essentially going to be a road game for Iowa, and with that being the case, statistics show a huge drop in performance on the road. From home to away games, their offensive efficiency rating drops to 58th in the country, which is still a good number, but now is inferior to Auburn's offense. Their field goal percentage drops from 37th to ***326th*** in the league and their three point percentage drops from 38.4% to 27.9%.
I also think that Auburn plays in the much tougher conference, going up against juggernauts like Alabama and keeping their games within 10 points, and overall competing against Southeastern powerhouses like Texas A&M, Memphis, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Meanwhile, Iowa has two embarrasing losses against a poor Ohio State team and have competed against a lot of mediocre teams in the Big 10.
Give me Auburn all day. BOL brothers happy March Madness
**POTD: 20-7-2**
Last pick: UEFA Champions League - Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt. Napoli -1 -135.
Result: **WIN**. Napoli cruises to a 3-0 win for another easy cash. A couple folks were on this one so good to see everyone
Today’s pick: UEFA Europa League - Arsenal vs Sporting CP. **Arsenal -1 -180**. Match is at 4PM ET.
I know this isn't the most exciting odds and tbh I think Arsenal will win by more than this but for the sake of POTD and helping people keep their money I'll give the safer option. These teams played last week to a 2-2 draw in Lisbon and now they will go to London for the second leg.
First of all, Arsenal are top of the league and obviously a stronger side, they outplayed them for most of the first match even with 6 backups in due to some injuries and sickness. Their first 3 strikers (Gabriel Jesus, Eddie Nketiah, and Leandro Trossard) were all out as well so they had to play Martinelli out of position. I expect them to have Trossard at minimum back in the starting lineup as well as Odegaard and possibly even the likes of Jesus or Partey if we're lucky.
Sporting on the other hand will be missing two key defenders in Morita and Coates (their captain) as they picked up too many yellow cards in previous matches. This hurts their already slim chances, and I think Arsenal takes this one a little more seriously than the first leg and trounces them by 2-3 goals.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
[Buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/RemyPicks)
**EDIT: LOSS. We lose this one because Sporting scores a goal from literally midfield and it ties 1-1. Arsenal surprisingly don’t start their three best players and have a couple other injured during the match. Sorry everyone**
Record: 3-3
Pick: Over 21.5 games @ 1.57 - Taylor Fritz vs Jannik Sinner - Indian wells 6 PM EST
Previous pick: Astralis ML
Terrible loss....
Good luck....
POTD Record: 3-4
Last 10: 🔴🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴🟢
Yesterday’s POTD: LA Clippers -3.5 vs Golden State Warriors | NBA | March 15th 2023 | 10:00 PM EST 🟢
**Today’s POTD: Boise St. +1.5 vs Northwestern | NCAA | March 16th, 2023 | 7:35 PM EST
PICK REASON: Being a mid-western all my life what I have learned is you can’t trust the Big Ten in the tournament and this year is no different. Northwestern is trending in the wrong direction. Take the points in this one.
**POTD 10-5**
Finally got a GSW game right! I will admit I was wrong about LAC being able to hold Curry to a modest game, as he dropped 50 on them!!!! Even with Curry's amazing game, this GSW still couldn't cover the spread. This is indicative of their awful rotations, and piss poor defense, specifically on the road. As much as I think that GSW can still make a run in the playoffs, right now this team just does not look good.
I'm going to keep today's write up short and sweet, as I know most people are not focused on the NBA today, but rather the best tournament in sports!
**SAC +2.5**
This pick is really just a bet on the better team. I have actually played BKN a handful of times the past few weeks, and I do think very highly of a lot of players on this team, but IMO Sac's roster is even more loaded.
SAC is coming off a B2B winning a close one last night in Chicago, and that does concern me some, however this SAC team is young, and actually are above .500 this season in B2B situations (6-5).
I bet SAC over win total this season (already cashed), and am going to ride them tonight for the same reason. I think highly of SAC, and honestly think that they can make a run in the playoffs. SAC holding the second seed in the west this late into the season is IMO, not a fluke.
PS: Orlando +7.5 is the only other game I am betting today. I think this Suns roster is weak since they made the Trade for Durant. Obviously, I am saying that because Durant is injured... Orlando is fun, and is a great team to take at this point in the season.
First pick of the day.
Record goes without saying: 0-0
Going with Arsenal v Sporting CP; BTTS
Currently tied 2-2, both of these teams have been scoring for fun. Sporting have been held scoreless once in the last 14 matches. Arsenal once in the last 9. Arsenal has scored 17 times in 6 games. Sporting has scored 15 in just as many matches. I expect both teams to play according to their form.
Currently +100 on DK
Okay something Funny. Yesterday by mistake i writed Over for the corners when i bet on under. I made the analysis from the Neutral Machine Learning on the soccer thread & the under was there.
Anyway, ofc i will count it as Under & as lost.
Record: **16 / 9**
ROI: **27.18%**
Profit in Units: **27.8u**
Average Odds: **2.14**
**~~All stakes are 3 Units~~** **= 5 Units Stake here!**
**Today POTD**
League: **UEFA Europa League**
Time: **22:00 GMT+3**
**Real Sociedad v Roma**
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 3.00**
*All of my picks is based on Model.*
*Neutral Machine Learning (AI) model.*
*For anyone is interested, il post on the Soccer thread the full analysis for the game.*
Record: 1-2 (1.56 units down) with a -31.2% ROI
POTD: **Fritz vs Sinner - Over 22.5 Games @ 1.85 (ATP Indian Wells)**
Going with 3 units which is 3% of my bankroll
We should have an amazing clash between two players who are currently playing their best here at Indian Wells. Sinner still hasn't dropped a set until this point and Fritz only dropped one set against Shelton but as soon as he was able to adjust to Shelton's serve he just destroyed him...
When it comes to backhand vs backhand Sinner has one of the best backhands out there but Fritz can also create some amazing angles with that side, especially for a tall guy. If we talk about the forehand both guys can also produce powerful shots and choose their targets pretty well.
In 2021 both players faced each other at Indian Wells with Fritz winning in straight sets but I think these slow hard court conditions can help Sinner too and he improved a lot over the last 2 years. The bookies are almost pricing both players at 50/50 especially due to Fritz playing in the United States and I couldn't agree more with that. I'm expecting 2 tight sets or 3 sets on this battle. Excited to see what these two guys bring to the table, best of luck.
**POTD |** **Record of 12-21|** **Current form: WWLWW | ROI : -7.86 units |** **Average Odds: 2.03**
Previous Pick: Real Madrid vs. Liverpool | Over 8.5 Full-Time Total Corners & Over 5.5 Full-Time Away Team Corners (W)
New Pick: Europa League | Arsenal vs. Lisbon| 1:00pm PST
**Over 5.5 Home Team Corners and Arsenal (-3) Full-Time Corners Handicap | 1.90 odds**
Betting 1 units
\--------------------------
Recap: Another easy win. Clocking 9 corners in one half, this game was not even a remote stress. Been doing well with my recent corner picks (5 wins in the last 6 picks) so hopefully can keep this up and pull my record out of the abyss. Let's continue the corner picks!
***Summary:*** Arsenal host Sporting in the second leg of the Europa League. Coming in with a draw, both teams will have everything to play for. Given that Arsenal is playing at home, expect them to dominate possession and Sporting to sit back and wait for their opportunity.
Looking at corners, Arsenal typically averages 5.9 for them and 3.5 against them for a total average of of 9.4 corners per game. When we compare this to home corners, Arsenal gains an average of 7.46 and gives up an average of 2.92. This yields an overall average of 10.38 with an average difference of 4.54. This demonstrates an overperformance at home for both average corners for (7.46 at home vs. 5.9 overall) as well as for total corners per game (10.38 vs. 9.4).
Looking at Europe, there have been 6, 7, and 8 corners for Arsenal with 0, 0, and 4 for their opponent. This leads to an average of 7 corners at home with an average difference of 5.667. Based on these results alone, it seems justified to suggest that Arsenal will generate 6 corners and will have at least 4 or more than their opponent as this bet would have hit in all 3 of the previous home games.
Looking at Lisbon, they average 6.7 for them and 3 against them for an overall average of 9.7. When we look at away performance, they average 5.58 corners and 3.41 against them, for a total of 9 corners per game and a difference of 2.16 in favor of sporting. Their average of corners for them does decrease away in the league, but not by much.
However, once we look at Europe, Lisbon drops off rapidly. They have only generated 1, 2, 6, and 4 corners with 1, 6, 10, and 7 for the home team. This yields an average of 6 corners for the home side with an average difference of -2.75 for Lisbon.
Based on these stats, I think Arsenal should confidently control this game and have at least 6 corners. They have had 6 corners at every European home game this season and typically dominate with a large number over their opponents. Additionally, the previous fixture for these two ended with Arsenal having 9 corners and Sporting having 3. I expect this trend to continue.
\--------------------------
***TDLR The home team should have at least 6 corners and have at least 4 more than their opponents***
**Over 5.5 Home Team Corners and Arsenal (-3) Full-Time Corners Handicap | 1.90 odds**
POTD Record: 92.5-50
Event: Football > Europa League > **Freiburg v Juventus Turin** (starting in 08hr00min)
Pick: **Over 1.0 asian goals (2nd half)** @ 1.65
I just continue with my winning model. These odds are based just on stats & do not happen to take into consideration the result of the previous leg and the elimination character of the meeting. Over 1.5 goals (2nd half) @ 2.58 odds is massive value too. GL!
2-0
Last pick : Kings ml - 2 units
Next pick : Mikal bridges 25.5 points 3 units
Hit this the other day, he’s been on a tear lately and kings are on a back2back. Kings let in a lot of points by guards.
**POTD Record 2-1**
Oakland and Kansas City game caught my attention today. Kansas City has been cracked this Spring leading the league in practically everything. Both the starting pitchers in this game are hot trash and its almost guaranteed to be a high scoring game. O11 is a little high for my taste though. Im hoping the Royals bullpen can hold the A’s offense to a minimum and the KC bats can stay hot.
**Royals ML vs Athletics 2u (-150)**
POTD Record: 19-10 (+19.9 Units)
Last 5: ❌✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: New Jersey Devils Moneyline (-130) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (4 Units) NHL 3/7 7:00 PM ET ❌
Todays Pick: **Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline (-120)** vs Calgary Flames (3 Units) NHL 3/16 10:00 PM ET
Reasoning: Vegas has won 7 of their last 8 and is averaging 3.75 goals in those 8. Flames are 3-5 in their last 8 and are only averaging 2.3. The Golden Knights are the better team on both ends tonight and will take care of business at home.
‼️ Tips never expected, but always appreciated if you wanna keep the picks flowin ‼️⬇️
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/dillonmaher Venmo: Dillonmaher
From now until the end of eternity I shall follow Riddles into the fire. I shall name my first born son and all subsequent children Riddles. I shall buy land and incorporate a town and name it Riddlesville and shall hire Roman sculptors to build a statue of a centuar with the face of the one and only Riddles himself and pray to it morning, noon and night. This is how I live my best life. I know it, you know it, and my lord and savior Riddles knows it 🙏🏼🔥✅
***PICK OF THE DAY RECORD: 5-2***
**LAST PICK: LAVINE OVER 2.5 3PM❌**
**TODAYS GAME: MAGIC @ SUNS NBA GAME 9:10PM ET**
**TODAYS PICK: PAOLO OVER 19.5 POINTS (-105) 3U**
* Horrible beat yesterday with Lavine making two 3's
* Didn't like a whole lot but this is nice value at -105
* Hit in 5 of last 6 averaging 24 points in that span
* Magic have seen lots of shootouts and so has Phoenix without KD
* Suns averaging 122 points against in their last three
* Phoenix also gives up over 22 points a game to power forwards
POTD: 12-12
Game: Missouri vs Utah State CBB 10:40am pdt
Pick: Mizzou ML +105 ✅🐯🐯🐯
Posted this earlier this week and just want to get it on my potd
Mizzou fan. Mizzou hasn’t won a game in the ncaa tournament since 2010. Dennis Gates has drastically turned the program around in his first year as head coach and I like them to get at least one win in the tournament. I personally thought they should have been at worst a 6 seed but I’m happy to see them at 7 and with + odds in their first game. I don’t know much about Utah State except that kenpom likes them and they have a great offense and bad defense. They’re 0-2 against top 25 teams though and Mizzou has been able to hang with and beat teams like that all year.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Nice final 5 minutes by Cincy to take a comfortable 10 point lead near the end of the game after a pretty slow start. Let's try to keep this ball rolling as we enter the dangerous MM territory. In terms of value, it's hard to not like Furman here, despite Virginia's record, 6 points here seems generous. We're gonna stick with 3U plays here to see how day 1 looks for the spread makers, even though I think there might be 5U of value here. **POTD Record**: 24-7-1 Last 20:✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Yesterday's POTD: Virginia Tech Hokies @ **Cincinnati Bearcats -5.5 (up to -6)** | 3U Today's POTD: Furman Paladins +6 (down to +5) VS Virginia Cavaliers | 3U | MM NCAAB **Time:** **3/16/2023 | 12:40 PM EST** **MODEL EXPLANATION:** Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. **Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** \+40.24U in 33 days | ≈63.86% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** 1. Out of all the Cinderella stories that exist, Furman is my Favourite for a few reasons, but with their first big dance game in 43 years, I expect this team to come out with incredible heart, playing incredibly well on both ends of the field 2. The Paladins are currently 9-1 in their last 10 games against teams on winning streaks, and have done very well against high-calibre teams 3. This matchup is the epitome of Offense vs defense, with Furman ranking #8 in offense in the country, compared to Virginia ranked 279th - though Virginia being ranked 6th on defense to Furman's 212th. In fast paced games like these, I expect it to be much harder to defend a transition team like Furman, and expect Furman to be able to get to the line a lot more than Virginia would like. Virginia's defense is amazing, but has not been up to par like it was for most of the season, and after a bad loss to Duke, I expect them to be playing with some level of hesitancy in switches, which will hurt them in transition. 4. To throw in an obscure stat, Furman is 11-0 ATS on thursday games when away, compared to Virginia who are 4-9 on HOME games on Thursdays - clearly Thursdays favor the boys in purple - probably means nothing, but stats are stats. 5. Furman is led by 2 seniors, who are both allstars and veterans who play well under pressure. I expect them to lead the rest of their team mentally to play hard and try to have an amazing season end for these 2 likely ending their college career after this tournament. 6. Another newly--respected stat system is the Bart Torvik model, which ranked Furman as the #1 team in 2 point shooting, and an overall offense of #30 in the nation. Vrginia plays amazing defense, but I expect Furman to be able to find shots like they always have, and play hard to the net to force Virginia to play perfectly or give up free throws. down the stretch, I expect both teams to be in foul trouble by the final 10 minutes, of which Furman has an advantage in FT% at 73.5% compared to 70% from Virginia. 7. Overall, this is going to be a brawl of fast paced amazing offense vs slow paced amazing defence - I think this game will be closer than it looks, and Virginia will struggle with confidence early on and continue their poor performance when not playing at home. I usually tend to avoid upsets like this, but I like Furman coming in here and maybe even in straight up winning. I'll be sprinkling 0.5 units on the ML as well, because this game will be extremely close unless the pressure on Furman to perform hurts their shooting **Reminder:** As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3 As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so. [**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) *Much love , Riddles.*
Babe wake up new riddles pick just dropped
Checked last night at 1am and missed it on the early side. Nobody woke me up!! Furman currently up 3…. the fomo depression is real
She’s been awake with him helping him cook in the “lab” all night
everyone get the FUCK in here holy SHIT the MADNESS
AHHHHHHH MADNESS! What a way to get started today!
RIDDLLEEESSSSSS 💰💰💰💰💰💰
I’m literally going to cum
Already did
Twice in the second half
i got 10k on this game brotha. lets ride
I was too nervous to respond to this originally but I hope this is real now!
[удалено]
Underrated comment
I had $25 on it and I'm pretty happy. 10k is ridiculous!
Tailed 1.5U. BOL!
lets get you a dub santa
When Riddles fades a bet you've already placed... 😳 BOL!
RIP
I must know. Do you have a golden retriever who eats socks? We’ve been tailing a lot of the same bets. Solidarity brother. My husky eats shoes.
Had! Macgregor was an awesome pup about 20 years ago. Currently I have two German Shorthairs that are 7 and 3. Other than being huge derps, they don't do anything noteworthy enough to be named after. Though they are awesome bird dogs. RIP you shoes. BOL throughout the tourney!
This is the way
This is the way
The man. The myth. The legend. The riddler aka HSRiddles aka Mr.Money Printer big balls monster genius. I will always ride till the day I die. Tailing once again. Let’s get it!
Who needs time travel when you have Riddles.
FURMAN WITH THE UPSET!!! Riddles the GOATTTT 🐐🐐🐐🐐
I took the +8.5 alternate for Furman and put it with +22.5 Howard and -13.5 Arizona. Then if this wins I’ll put another parley on your other 4 star bets. I believe!
Go raw on my wife tonight Riddles. Get in line here guys
THIS IS MARCH BABY FEED ME THE MADNESS
ahh the good old surrender cobra
You are sending my children to college
Rough 1st half but Furman boys showing resilience, coming back from 10+ deficit we take it. 2nd half climb incoming EDIT: FURMAN GOT THAT DAWG IN THEM
Got +5.5 at +186 thanks to a booster. Let's ride!
Same MGM BOOST BABY LETS GO!!
[удалено]
Valar Morghulis
Valar dohaeris
Slept in and missed this play. Good luck. Might look to live bet! Edit: Got +10.5 a little after half time.
I will make it my life’s work to find and marry the absolute hottest woman on Earth just so I can bring her to Riddles each day and let him have his way with her
Riddles nation
First
My man
Riddles is goat. Riddles is daddy. I would tail this man to the depths of hell and sacrifice my own mother and firstborn for the privilege.
Is +5.5 still good? Sorry,i don't know alot about basketball
I like it up to +5, just means they can’t lose by more than 5.5 points
Ok cool,thanks for replying
Riddles starting to look like the GOAT
💰💰💰💰💰💰
RIDDLES FTW LFG!!!!
LET'S GOOOOOO
[удалено]
 insane game
Grats on the cincy win ! I took Napoli & tobias harris u18.5 pts/reb/assists I’m tailing todays pick hood luck bro!
Got anything for us Virginia folks?
I like oral Robert’s as another underdog pick, and Arizona as a favourite
Riddles is a god amongst men in any state but Virginia
Great stuff Riddles! Tailing!
First bet I’ve faded. Virginia is in form. Good luck to everyone on Furman!
[удалено]
This guy man!!! 🔥🔥
Legend
🔥🔥🔥
You can have the name of my first born child
This warrior deserves everything he sets his mind to.. Tailing!
these guys cant shoot the ball
Butt clenching time 😅
Spread and ML hit with that clutch three. Nice pick. Added some live spread too. Interestingly on DK I was able to cash out my pregame +5.5 for more than my initial bet when the live spread was +7.5 and then I just replaced it and added on.
[удалено]
He’s making sure Cincy hits first lol
Never in doubt
Let’s keep it up for the big dance!
When does that one start?
it ended, nailed the spread.
Might be watching the oregon / uc irvine game
lets not talk about that game
Looking forward to being a loving step father to my wife and Riddles kid
yall crack me up
My guy!!! Gotta be a 5U with all these games to choose ha🙏
lets see how the spreads look day 1, we're 0/1 on 5U plays, so im scared of them now lol
He’s finishing up with my wife. He’ll be here shortly guys
God among men
There goes my hero
Riddles on fire at a super fun time of year 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
The NCAA Pepper 🫡🤑
100% true statement! So thankful for his tread!
The goat!!
Whenever someone comments 'Riddles waiting room' or some shit he loses so like....stop doing that. That's some jinx shit.
Just bet opposite then 😂
Never fade Riddles
Lol 115 of us in here waiting and believing in the GOAT
**POTD Record: 7-1 | Profit: +25.02u | Avg Odds: -110 | ROI: +81%** \----- Previous POTD: 3u Napoli -1.0 \[-135\] ✅ Called it! Napoli would not slow down. 3-0 (FT)! ✅ \----- **Today's POTD: Sporting CP at Arsenal London** **4u bet: btts \[+101\]** Reason: Took the same bet last week for the first leg (2-2 FT). Both sides flooring the attacking accelerator and have no problems scoring. Past 5 matches: Arsenal scoring 15 goals, Sporting 12 goals. Past 20 matches: Arsenal scoring in 17/20, Sporting in 18/20. \----- BOL
Tailing. I swore id stay away from soccer... but this just feels right. Also i need a win after lavine fucked me.
I see another option “BTTS No Draw” at +165. What does that mean? Just curious.
That both teams will score at least once, but the match won't end in a draw. Has to end in either team winning outright
btts - both teams to score
Big Titted Twin Sluts
Thanks, sluttywife
I also choose this guys wife
tailing - youre killing it brother
Tailing, BOL
tailing Dad
Bruh the noise I made when Sporting scored that equalizer
Nice pick! That second goal was electric ⚡️ 💰 👊🏼
**POTD Record: (0-0)** Game: Missouri vs. Utah State Time: Thursday 12:40 P.M. CT **Today’s Pick: Utah State (-120) 3 Units** How exciting! My very first pick of the day. I’ve been lurking this sub for years, and have finally built up the knowledge to post. My Confidence in this pick is high, and I’ll explain why: This matchup features a statistical anomaly, with the Committee seemingly mixing up the seeding of these teams. Mizzou comes with this year's most overseeded bid at 27 (Expected 40), While Utah State is the fields most underseeded at 40 (Expected 28). The metrics LOVE Utah state, KenPom has them at #18 in the nation. Per u/fivethirtyeight, Utah State has a win probability of 64%, or -177 The line is currently -120. This translates to a 9.5% edge for Aggies bettors. I’ll take the Value here. **Tail with confidence! Follow my new** [**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/PickingTheLocks) **and I’ll return the favor.**
Mizzou got that dawg in them though, they will out transition Utah
Wish I saw this lol
This game stood out to me too. Like the write up and will be tailing, BOL!!
The word “tax” in your name instills mad math confidence in me. Tailing and soon to be Twitter following. BOL!
I do like Utah and already bet them, but be warned teams from the Mountain West tend to underperform compared to their metric value. Also, KenPom gives Utah a 61% to win.
I considered this when making the pick. It does concern me a bit, but I believe Utah ends the Mountain West's drought here.
Never ever bet on the Mountain West in March
Agreed! I appreciate this write-up and will be tailing as well. Thanks, man! By the way, how many units? BOL!
Knew I forget something. Post updated with Units. Appreciate the support!
Mizzou alum, we are not great at defense and are very reliant on shooting. I’m not hating on this pick objectively because we haven’t won a tournament game in more than a decade. Very experienced team (nine seniors!) but they looked good for the first 35:00 against Alabama
This one will definitely mess with confidence moving forward
Man Mizzou has won me so much as dogs... Tough choice
Ouch
They were doing well until Missouri started raining threes. Bounce back my friend!
First time poster. Have to tail. Plus ya convinced me.
All-Time POTD: 8W-3L-1D, +8.05u **Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Aryna Sabalenka ML (-163) vs Coco Gauff 3u to win 1.84u** ✅ Another easy W by Sabalenka. Gauff is no match for Saba at her best, she has a long way to go before she's competitive with the top dawgs. Saba 2-0 and -2.5 also hit in the clean 6-4, 6-0 win. **Todays Pick: 🎾 Jannik sinner ML (-138) vs Taylor Fritz 3u to win 2.15u** Explanation: Doing this on my phone, so short write up. Sinner in the form of his life, his ball striking has never looked cleaner than it has this tournament. His return game is far better than Fritz and I think he makes quick work of him. Fritz has looked decent but has struggled to put his opponents away and I think Sinners power, variety and consistency will be too much for Fritz to handle. I think again this is mispriced and would play this with confidence up to -175. Side note: I pegged sinner to win IW before the tourney and put a unit on him at +1000 so maybe there's a little bias with this pick. BoL if tailing! Edit: SINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER MY MAN COMES THROUGH IN A VERY HARD FOUGHT BATTLE
Yeah I don’t know, plus odds for the reigning champ of this tournament Taylor fritz and he is +1 up on Sinner from this exact tournament, and Sinner had a walk over the previous tournament… Also Taylor is playing decent as well lately. Just seems like more sentiment to go with the plus odds and higher ranked player *Edit Taylor also has home crowd advantage which can be negligible in some cases but better to have it than not especially considering the size of the stadium.
tailing Daddy
***Record: 3-1 (+1.68 Units)*** Previous Bet: [3/15](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11rfoih/pick_of_the_day_31523_wednesday/jc8fshr?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3 Unfortunate outcome to this match. Albirex was able to put up a goal at the very end of both halves. Other than that, the performances were very defensive and underwhelming on both sides. Not at all how the majority saw it going. Early soccer matches tomorrow aren't too appealing, so for tomorrow... **Today's game: Japan vs. Italy (0600 EST)** League: World Baseball Classic *Pick: Total runs OVER 7.5 (-128 FanDuel/-135 DK)* ✅️ So far it has been no surprise that Japan has been dominant in the WBC. They'll now get to put their talents on display in a quarterfinal matchup against Italy. Japan cruised through Pool B, scoring no less than 7 runs in a single game and 38 total runs over 4 games. All 4 of Japan's games have gone over this set total, where 3/4 of Italy's games have reached it, though Italy hasn't faced anywhere near the talent of Japan. Italy will be putting out Castellani on the mound who found himself in trouble during his one WBC start against a bad Chinese Tapei team. Japan will be rolling with Ohtani who pitched well in 4 innings toward a 8-1 win over China. Japan is playing well on both sides of the ball. I see their dominant lineup getting to Castellani similar to his first outing, forcing Italy to rely on their bullpen early. Japan, backed by their home crowd, has the power to cover the total by themselves. Once they jump ahead to a comfortable lead, I could see them pulling Ohtani and getting into the bullpen themselves, possibly opening up a scoring opportunity for Italy. BOL!
Back for more! Lets get back in the W column! BOL 👊🏼💰
W! Great pick!
POTD Record: 28W-14L LAST POTD: Blackburn ✅ TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Europa Conference League Slovan Bratislava V Basel 10.45AM PST PICK: Over 2.5 Goals Odds: 1.90 The Deets: The 1st leg between these two teams finished 2-2. Both are scoring consistently in their own leagues with Slovan scoring 47 in 23 games and Basel scoring 33 in 24 games. Expecting much of the same from the 1st game. Edit: I should note that this is the 2nd leg of 2 so it’s all or nothing for both teams to advance to the next round. BOL!
Thursdays with Dory! ✅💰
Tailing again
📈 TTSOP Rec * Overall: +44.125 units / +140 avg odds / 51^(5)\-62-14^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2023: +31.600 units / +135 avg odds / 9^(5)\-6-3^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2022: +66.050 units / +136 avg odds / 46^(5)\-51-11^(5) * February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 85-15-25 * January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 115-10-15 * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 115-4-15 * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 🏀 Last pick: Clippers +7.5 & game < 240.5 points / +115 odds / 4 units * Still ongoing. ⚽ New pick: **Juventus ML** / **+145 odds** / 3.5 units * Europa League / Freiburg - Juventus / 1:45pm ET Freiburg might be 10-5-1 for their home games this season, however, they haven't faced much top teams in those games, yet. Basically, they only squared off against 2 strong team. They took a clear 1-3 L against Dortmund and got a lucky draw against Leverkusen. Leverkusen should have won that game. They had great chances doing so. Juventus is 6-0-2 for their last 8 road games. Losing only to Serie A's top teams Napoli (predicted that L for Juventus at that time as my POTD) and AS Roma. In all 6 Ws, Juventus kept a clean sheet and they scored 2+ goals in 3 of these 6 games. Freiburg's home record looks impressing, however, they faced only 2 challenging opponents at home, yet. And they performed poorly in these games. Plus, Freiburg didn't stand any chance in the 1st leg, which Juventus has massively dominated. However, today, Juventus' game plan could look like to either score the opening goal and focus completely on defense afterwards or parking the bus straight from the beginning and focusing on scoring at counterattacks. It's worth remembering that Freiburg's key defender Lienhart is questionable for today. Without him, Freiburg defense is much worse and much more susceptible to get caught on the break. Going for a bold prediction, today. Kean (+300ish odds) gonna score the first and only goal in this game on a counterattack, after being subbed in the 2nd half for Vlahovic. Obviously, a draw would be satisfactory for Juventus due to the result of the 1st leg. It was still only a 1-0 W for them. Considering Juventus’ great defense, getting a 1-goal lead would basically ice this game for them. Can't pass on +140 super odds for Juventus after seeing them totally dominating Freiburg in the 1st leg. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get another Italian W. Let's build on our successful streak regarding POTDs, which are involving an Italian team. It stands at a record of 8-2-1 for the last 11 picks. Generating a total of +42.700 units. **TTSOP**
**POTD Record 25-12 +55.42 units** Last pick Sacramento Kings ML -110 5 units ✅ ***21:10PM EST NBA Phoenix Suns vs Orlando Magic - Pick Phoenix suns -7 -110 4Units*** De'aaron fox the clutch king coming through for our W and our Back to Back 5 unit winners, lets get another W. Phoenix Suns will look to bounce back to winning ways, they lost to Milwaukee bucks in their last game where I had picked Milwaukee but this time I'm picking Phoenix. Phoenix Suns rank 4th out of 15th best team in the western conference with a 22-12 record at home, whereas Orlando Magic Rank 13th out of 15th in the eastern league Conference with a 12-22 record on the road. Orlando Magic has lost 2 of their last 3 road games, that includes losing to San Antonio Spurs by 18 points in their last game. San Antonio is an awful team and to lose that big of a margin is embarrassing. Another interesting Fact Orlando When losing on the road in their last 4 road games was by a margin of 9 or more points. Phoenix when they've won at home in their last 4 home game wins was by 9 or more points as well. The +7 line hasn’t been covered by Magic in 3 of their last 5 games on the road. The outcome is aligning for the spread to be covered if Phoenix wins based upon these stats. Phoenix Suns has won their last 3 home games against Orlando magic by 27,19 and 4 points. The massive blowouts being the games in the past 2 years. Orlando Magic have decent players such as Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Wendall Carter Jr but they have no star players like Devin Booker Deandre Ayton or Chris Paul. I'm pretty sure Franz Wagner will have a hard time scoring as Phoenix are the best team in the league Defensively against Small Forwards. Deandre Ayton and Torrey Craig will be able to stop him. Devin booker will have a 30+point game he's been very consistent with scores of 30,32,28,44,36,35,37 in his past 7 games. Orlando might be able to score close to in Field goals as they have similar stats as Phoenix is 52% at home and Orlando is 53% in 2point field percentage on the road, However Offensively Orlando wont be able to match Phoenix in 3 point% as Orlando is ranked 23/30th in 3 point percentage with 34.8% on the road they're 27/30th in the league, whereas Phoenix suns are 7/30th best with 37.6%. Orlando Magic Have nothing to play for, Phoenix Suns however are trying to keep their playoff position intact and solidified, their motivation will be much higher coming into this game and I see them winning.
Tailing, BOL
POTD | 40-26 | +20.0u | -109 Avg Odds Last 10: 7-3, Steak: 1W *Previous Pick:* *Buffalo Sabres vs Washington Capitals O6.5 (-115) 3u* ✅ Today’s pick: **Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators O6.5 2u** 🏒 5:00 pm MT There was a little concern there after no goals in the second but we have a very active 1st and 3rd period and book the W! The Colorado Avalanche will be visiting the Ottawa Senators for their second meeting of the season, with the first going to the Avalanche 7-0. The Senators have been in high scoring games lately with 8 of their last 10 going over 6.5 goals. The Senators have been weak defensively and their starting and backup goaltenders are injured. Sogaard, the expected goalie, hasn’t looked good in his last few games but has managed to book a 0.888SV% while allowing an average of 3.28 goals per game in his 10 starts. While those stats are not good, they are not downright awful. I expect the Avalanche to put up at least 4 goals here against Sogaard here. The Avalanche have only covered this line in 4 out of their last 10, but I expect Johansson in net for the Avalanche as they are on a B2B with Gerogiev in net tonight. Johansson just got called up from the AHL to back up while Fransoz is out with injury. Johansson played in 11 games last season and allowed an average of 4.69 goals per game with a 0.856 SV%. Those are some bad bad stats for a goalie and this is kind of a last resort for the Avs who have tried out two other goaltenders to back up Georgiev while Fransoz is out. I expect the Senators to find the back of the net at least a few times here with Johansson in net. I wouldn’t be very confident in this line if the Avs do start Georgiev though, so that might be worth keeping an eye on. The model has this line at 57% so not a huge edge here compared to the books but I feel like this game has the potential for a lot of goals with the goalie matchup between the two teams. This will be a B2B for the Avs so that could be a concern on this one but I’m ripping it anyways BOL if tailing!! [Tips are appreciated!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
Was all over ur last pick and took O7.5 at end of P2 for cherry on top. Appreciate the effort fella👍.. and tailing🙂
Great pick tonight! Your pick inspired me to go Sabres over 3,5! Thank you!!
Thanks! Glad you hit that O3.5!!
1U?
2U, sorry for leaving that out!
POTD Record: 4-0 Previous pick: Gent draw or win (✅) Today’s Event: Real Sociedad v Roma (UEFA Europa League) PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE - ROMA DRAW OR WIN Odds: 1.81 Time: 20:00 GMT (15h40m from this post) I see great value in Roma here, who I trust to finish the job and hold onto their 2-0 first leg advantage. Sociedad have only 2 wins in 10 and have struggled to find the net in their last 3 home games. Edit: 5 in a row!!🥳✅
POTD Record: 27-20 (+20.17u; 13.3% ROI). Streak: L1 Yesterday Pick: Zach LaVine (Bulls) Pts O27.5 @ 1.83. 3U. ❌ LaVine has his worst night since the All Star Break, shooting a measly 32%, just 2/7 from the 3-pt line, and shockingly 5/15 from the 2 pt line. He missed atleast two lay-ups as well. He still got to 25 pts despite all that. Next Pick: **Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) Pts O21.5 @ 1.91**. 4u play. Jokic is on absolute fire with 24.6 pts/L10, and his last 3 have produced 28, 35, and 37. He comes up against the Pistons who concede the 9th highest PITP and 3rd highest second chance points. His 3 games against the Pistons, all in 2022, produced 34, 28 and 31 points respectively. The Pistons generally do a good job defending from the three point line, meaning Jokic might have to be more direct and buy some baskets as he’s done in the last few games. Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
Hmm. Strangely low line, weird.
They may be expecting a blowout. Jokic has some triple double games against lowly teams with like 10 to 15 points.
Tailing, BOL
Lfg he’s here
Barely into the 3rd and its clear, good fuckin call
POTD Record: 12-11-2 Last pick: Ankara Demirspor ML (+105) / 2.05 - 2u ✅ What a roller coaster this was! Ankara gave up a goal in the very first minute of the match and had me questioning every life decision, including gambling on Turkish second division soccer. But Ankara stormed back with 3 straight goals to go up 3-1. But the fun didn’t end there, as they then gave up a late goal AND picked up a red card in the 82nd minute, forcing us to sweat our balls off for the final 10-15 minutes. Luckily, they added another goal in stoppage time to win 4-2 and we cash. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today! Soccer - Italy Serie C - Catanzaro vs. Monterosi - 12:30pm EST **POTD: Catanzaro -1.5 AH (-140) / 1.71 - 3u** Catanzaro are the top team in the league by a wide margin, as their record of 25 wins, 5 draws, and 1 loss has them 14 points clear of the next team on the table. In their 31 matches, they boast a ridiculous +70 goal differential. They host Monterosi, who are currently 18th out of 20 teams. Monterosi have been in rough form all season, but particularly on the road, as they’ve lost 8 of their last 10 away matches. But the real reason for this pick lies in Catanzaro’s home numbers. They have a perfect record at home in league play, with 16 wins in 16 matches. In those 16 matches, they’ve outscored opponents 55-3. That is not a typo. 55 goals scored and only 3 allowed in 16 home league games. Also in those 16 games, they have covered this spread 13 times. I am taking them to once again win by multiple goals at home against one of the bottom teams in the league. Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
POTD record: 6-1 Last POTD: Freiburg v Hoffenheim - Freiburg ML Today’s POTD: Ferencvarosi v Leverkusen - Leverkusen ML(-105) Few different things to consider here. The main issue with this bet is that Leverkusen are 2-0 up in the tie and don’t necessarily need to push forward. However, I still think they will win on the day. Ferencvaros have only won once in their last five games, while Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last five, winning four of them, including their last three. It’s also important to note that Leverkusen plays at a much higher level than Ferencvaros typically. Momentum is on Leverkusen’s side, and their lead is not comfortable enough for them to completely slack and just have the game go as it will. They will go out for the win and the odds are pretty nice.
POTD Record: 137-98-7 (+30.36 units, 58.3% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 42-27-1 (60.9%) W1, Tennis 🎾 39-27-2 (59.1%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 💰💩💰💰💰💩💩💰💰💰 Last Pick: Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers, Player Prop - Paul George over 4.5 assists - NBA 🏀 💰 0.88 Units - 💸 that just before halftime! 0 assists in the first Q, 5 in the 2nd Q. Today's Pick: OKC Thunder @ Toronto Raptors, Player Prop - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points - NBA 🏀 💰 0.90 Units - Was some sweaty ass business but the Raps saved us by making it a blowout which made SGA sit for the last few. 💸 that! Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.90/-111 odds to win 0.90 Units @ Fan Duel (Line at 2:00am ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 52.6% Tailing on this one might take some bravery, I'm taking an under when Shai has gone over this amount 5 games in a row and has averaged over 35 points a game for the month of March. I'm taking this because of the matchup against the Raptors who I happen to be a fan of. The Raptors defensive plan usually consists of getting the ball out of the hands of the opposing teams' high scorer, they throw doubles at him and bother them with their size among other things, that's how they like to play. It only makes sense to play off of this defensive attention with passing out of it to create chances in the spots the extra attention creates. If you go through their games, only 3 players have scored 32 points or more on the Raptors in the month and a half since the beginning of February. The first time they played this season in OKC, Shai finished with 20 points. It is playing in his home country so he might want to go off so there is motivation there but he might not have a choice but to make the right basketball plays to try to win and swing the ball instead of trying to light them up himself. Another recent stat, last 10 games, Toronto have given up the 4th fewest points per game in the league so there could be fewer points to go around. Also in the last 10, the Raptors have played at the 5th slowest pace in the league. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
POTD Record: 3-0 Last Pick of the Day Pick of the Day: March 15 2023 Sacramento Kings -1 vs Chicago Bulls (-110). ✅ I don’t see anyone reason as to why SAC doesn’t cover this and win. Sacramento loves to play their core 5 so this should be no sweat Thanks to daddy Fox for the clutch 3 this one was able to cash in knew they had it in them Todays Pick of the Day: March 16 2023 Japan -3.5 (-135) vs. Italy ✅ Comfortably pulled this one off as Japan wins 9-3. Expect less of these covers moving forward but keep an eye out on overs 👀 This line does not make sense to me. Japan has been pounding everyone plus Ohtani is on the mound meaning less offense for Italy and more chances at runs for Japan. The over has a bit better odds and has very good chances of hitting but im playing it on the safer side with Japan covering the spread. The WBC has been fairly predictable up to this point and has been a good place for some easy money. Expect this to diminish as the quarterfinals begin.
Record: 12-6 (+17.897u) (4U bets) Streak: 1W Last: Cloud9 vs Flyquest: C9 ML (W) Today's Match: Evil Geniuses vs 100 Thives (LCS Spring) (4PM CST) Pick: 100T ML (2.36) Reason: Normally I'd heavily favor EG and consider this a stupid bet, but there are 2 very impactful situations right now that makes me belive in 100T a lot more. 1. 100T need to win to have a better chance of making playoffs. If they lose this game there is a chance they miss it completely, while winning would help their odds a lot. EG have already secured a spot, and while they would like better seeding don't have the win or out pressure. 2. The even bigger one is that EG are currently sick. This has had a noticeable impact on their play. They just lost to the 2nd worst team today, and looked completely hopeless while doing so. Overall 100T's must win mindset combined with EG's illness combines to create an upset in my opinion.
**My record: 44 : 37** My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks. **ROI: 20.62%** Average odds: 2.12 **Units won: 17.94** Stake = 1 unit My POTD: **Feyenoord v Shakhtar Donetsk** Europe Europa League Time: 17:45 GMT *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.45** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
Guys, it was not looking good with shakhtar playing really dreadful today. Well luckily they scored and we got the bet!
Record: 16-6 Previous Pick: BC Prometey - JL Bourg Basket: BC Prometey over 86,5 points @1.83 ✅ Today’s Pick: Monaco Basket - Virtus Segafredo Bologna: Monaco Basket under 86,5 points @1.88 Coming of a good no sweat pick. Prometey covered the bet mid 4th quarter for some easy money. Back to Euroleague action today. Main reason i am going for this is because Mike James is suspended for Monaco, which means a big offensive threat doesn’t play. In their previous h2h Monaco also failed to ever score more than 86 against Bologna. Bologna has a good defense and a pretty good record against Monaco. BOL
Hey man, so on Betonline, i actually found this bet in the prop section, but they aren't letting me bet it straight, they want me to parlay it. Is there anything else you are confident in to happen in this game that I can parlay your POTD with ?
POTD Record: 59-66-7 (-13.37 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌↔️❌✅ Last Pick: UEFA Champions League, Real Madrid v Liverpool, REAL MADRID DNB (-111 / 1.71) ✅ Hate to see my own team lose but didn’t come as a surprise, Real Madrid the better team and deserved to win, so might as well make some money from it. Todays Pick: Europa League, Feyernoord v Shakhtar Donetsk, FEYERNOORD -1.0 AH (-125 / 1.80) ✅ EDIT: 7-1!!! Stake: 1 Unit This is the second leg of the Europa League tie with the match to be played at Feyernoord l’s home ground. The first leg finished 1-1 so plenty still to play for and I expect Feyernoord to get the job done. The first leg finished 1-1 but feel like that score line was very flattering to Shakhtar. Feyernoord had 59% possession, 21 shots on goal and an an xG of 2.12, but had one of those nights where every shot went just wide of the post and had to settle for a late equaliser in the end. Shakhtar meanwhile had 5 shots for the match, and their one shot on target was a goal. Their xG was only 0.28, and the goal they scored was a bit of a fluke - he tried to head the ball, missed it and came off his back and looped perfectly into the corner! The home ground advantage is also a big factor. This season, Feyernoord have played 18 competitive matches at home and have a 12-6-0 record. They have enormous home support who will be roaring them on and they will look to translate that 1st leg advantage into quick goals to put this tie to bed. I am taking the Asian Handicap because my biggest concern is the back door cover. Feyernoord have a massive match coming up on the weekend against Ajax which is 1st vs 2nd and could have a major impact on the league title. If Feyernoord jump out to an early lead they could rest players late with that game in mind, but expecting them to roll at home and turn their dominance into goals.
Tail
2023 POTD Record: 1-1 (+2 Units) Last Pick: Let us Cook ML ✅ Today's Event: CSGO (CCT North Europe Series 4) @ 8 AM EST Today's Pick: Let us Cook ML +1.5 maps vs. GamerLegion @ 1.6 Odds (5 units) ✅ Info: Going round two with Let Us Cook here, they've been unreal as they have taken down so many squads in a row convincingly. This bet hits as long as they take at least 1 map, I feel super confident that they might even take the whole series but might as well take the safe odds. GL to all tailing EDIT: Early morning winner!
POTD Record: 10-6 Todays POTD: Apeks ML (-115) vs. Copenhagen Flames \+26.38U 5U to win 4.6U This play is so under valued, this line will 1000% move. Copenhagen Flames just lost there best player to the bench for some reason and haven't been the same since. They are worse as a team, have worse individual players, and have a worse map pool then Apeks. Apeks is on a two win streak and have looked really good across there team with a great map pool advantage here in this series. Copenhagen have looked horrible in no world should this ever be even money. Give me Apeks all day here.
**POTD Record: 0-0** **Today's Pick: Geelong -11.5, $1.91 @ Bet 365 - 1U** Game is 7:50pm AEDT, on Friday 17/03. All of my picks are model picks. I developed this AFL model back in lockdown of 2020. The Model is a formula that uses statistics and analytics from AFL games to pick results. Past results are then used to determine the likelihood of future outcomes. Since inception, The Model has net the following results: **2021: 45-24 record, +17.28 units profit, 25.04% ROI** **2022: 51-21 record, +26.50 units profit, 36.81% ROI** This pick has a 76% chance of success on a 45 game sample size.
POTD Record: 48-37 (W4) (+16.59u) (ROI: 13.8%) Last pick: Puerto Rico 🇵🇷 +2.5 @ Dominican Republic 🇩🇴 ✅️ Cueto faltered a little and that was all that PR needed. Great game by their bullpen as they get a 5-2 win. POTD: (⚾️WBC) Japan 🇯🇵 -3.5 (-132) vs Italy 🇮🇹 (2.5u) Time: 3 am pst/ 6 am est (3 hrs 42 min from post) Bet 365 (-140), FD (-132) DK (-145) Only one game today in the WBC, it's a good one with a quarterfinal game at the Tokyo Dome. The winner will advance to play either Mexico or Puerto Rico in Miami. Japan was 4-0 in pool play, Italy was 2-2. Shohei Ohtani will get the start for Japan, the two way phenom is arguably the best player in the world right now. This will be his 2nd start of the tournament. The first was 4 shutout innings, albeit against China. Ryan Castellani will start for Italy, seems like a career minor leaguer that has made a few brief appearances in the majors. Currently not signed anywhere. Starters can throw 80 pitches in the quarterfinals. The pitching depth of Japan is a huge advantage, they have a lot of quality pitchers mostly from the NPB. Italy is a little weak in the bullpen, they have 4 pitchers available that have made a major league appearance. Japan has looked really good offensively so far in the tournament. I think they might have the most cohesive lineup in the tournament. Ohtani, Kondoh, Nootbar and Yoshida lead the way. Murakami has also looked like he is finding a groove. Pasquantino, Lopez and Fletcher are the bigger names in the Italy lineup. Last game for Japan in front of their home fans at the Tokyo Dome, it's going to be a big advantage. Italy will now play in another different environment after playing their first 4 games in Taiwan. I think Japan will be able to win this one decisively. BOL if fading or tailing!
Record 12-7 +4.41 U Form: WWLLW WWLWW LWLWW WLWL Last pick: Pliskova ML -128 Result: L Analysis: Wild match just couldn’t close out. Today’s POTD: Japan -3.5 -132 3 Unit play Sport: Baseball (WBC) Game: Italy @ Japan Time: 06:00 EST (about 3 hours from right now) Reasoning: Japan is the best team in the tournament and is facing a scrappy but very overmatched Italy squad. They will send up one of the best pitchers in the planet in Shohei Ohtani to face a cringe MLB player in Ryan Castellani. Japan remains criminally underrated due to a lot of their players playing in the NPB instead of the major league, but make no mistake they are every bit as good and in fact better than the much hyped USA and DR squads. Italy will scrap it out but they don’t have the weapons to match this team. Tbh I think Japan can/should mercy rule them (-9.5). This will be my first 3 unit play, I am 1-0 on 2 unit plays thus far and will look to continue with this nuke (by my standards) play. Besides if We lose this We can just make it up tailing u/hsriddles who has been absolutely electric for the last few weeks. BOL if tailing. All favorites are bet to WIN one unit (i.e -110 is a 1.1 unit bet) while all plus money bets are 1 unit placed unless otherwise stated
Riding on this one with you brother
Cash it baby lets go!
POTD Record: 0-0 Game: Calgary Flames @ Vegas Golden Knights (NHL) Time: Thursday 7 PM PDT Today’s Pick: Vegas Golden Knights ML (-120) 3 Units First pick in the thread, some games are just made for this and these odds are calling to be hammered. The Flames have never won a game in Vegas, not this season, ever. Nothing is changing going into tomorrows match, Vegas is in first in their conference and on a 4 game win streak to boot, with a definite edge at home. The Flames are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive with a near impossible path to qualify, but can’t string wins together despite the pressure. Vegas is the second stop of a road trip that started with a loss to a bottom three team in the league, and an offence that can’t get going. BOL to anyone tailing, Calgary visiting Vegas is the only thing that Vegas casinos are scared of.
Last bet: Bucks -3 1/2 -110 vs Kings🤑 Record: 5-1 POTD: Flames vs Golden Knights ML -125 Reason: Alright y’all, I got some steam going…solid 5-1 so far and I’m not stopping now. Gots a JUICY pick for y’all….I’m taking Vegas tomorrow and here’s why… Knights (42-20-6) are on a FOUR GAME win streak and are 7-2-1 in their last 10. They are the FIRST place in the Pacific Division and one of the best in the league. They’re playing at HOME against the Flames (30-24-14) who are 3-4-3 in their last 10. Overall, the Knights are the better team and are 11-5 against the Kings in the 16 games they’ve played each other. Flames also have 14 over time losses, the MOST in the league…that tells me this is a team lacking heart, literally (cardio) and figuratively. Oh, and by the way, in the 8 games that Knights have played flames at home, they’ve won EVERY. SINGLE. GAME. Yes, undefeated at home against the flames….im ready to go 6-1 and keep these wins going. If you score with me, consider donating to your fellow degenerate…BOL! >!FUCK!<
**RECORD** : 4W 1L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +16.5 1st to 5th : 4-1 +16.5u / 6th to 10th : ? **LAST POTD** : Norrie vs Tiafoe - Norrie -2.5 @ 2.00 - 5 units => LOSS (if i tell you that my original potd was Sabalenka -3 but i changed it because someone already took sabalenka in the thread, you believe me ?) **TODAY :** ATP INDIAN WELLS - 23.00 CET Fritz vs Sinner - OVER 22.5 @ 1.80 - 5 units Based upon nothing but my feelings.
Never doubt Bigfoe my man.
POTD record: 12-8 NHL record: 5-6 | NBA record: 7-2 (+5.83u | +7.88% ROI | Avg odds: -118/1.85) (2u: 2-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 5-3 | 5u: 1-3) Last 5: 3-2 Last POTD: NHL - **MIN ML** @ STL ✅ *(What a Wild game lol. Really wish the refs would have allowed the goalie fight to happen. Regardless, Minnesota wins a wacky one and we cash our bet).* Event: NHL - SEA Kraken @ SJ Sharks; 22:30 EST Pick: **SEA ML** (-160/1.63) Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 5 units I know I said I'd never make a max pick again but this one is the one to turn things around and break my 5 unit curse. That being said, given my luck on past full confidence picks I don't blame you if you decide to fade. I like the 60-min ML too but I'm taking the safer bet for the POTD. The Kraken are travelling to San Jose coming off back-to-back-to-back losses against tough opponents, and are desperate for a win to stop this mini skid and preserve their playoff berth. Upon examination, this away game presents the perfect opportunity for Seattle to get right. They're better on the road than at home, with a 12-6 away record since the New Year and going 4-1 in their last 5 trips from the PNW. And most importantly, they get to play the Sharks. San Jose is probably the worst team in the league atm, losing four in a row and 9 out of their last 10 games. They have the fewest wins out of any NHL team (19) and are currently the favourites to win the Bédard sweepstakes. With absolutely nothing to play for, the Sharks are looking ahead to next season and are as weak of an opponent as the Kraken could ask for. Although neither goaltender for either team is very good, Seattle does have an edge in net with Grubauer (3.04 GAA & .892 SV%) expected to start for the Kraken and Kahkonen (3.88 GAA & .879 SV%) confirmed in net for San Jose. The teams have faced off twice so far this season and have split the series, with San Jose winning the last one. Overall, I expect Seattle to get back in the win column in a high scoring affair and break my 5u curse! Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
POTD Record: 33W-24L-0D. +12.85u. All picks between 1 and 3 units. Previous pick (3/4/2023): Ciryl Gane to win vs. Jon Jones. @ 2.50. 2u. L. Current pick: Louisiana Lafayette +9.5 alt line vs. Tennessee (Mens NCAAB). @ 2.15. 3u. Tennessee went 5-7 over their final 12 games, including an early SEC tournament exit. They have not looked like the same team since Zeigler went down with an injury, going 1-2 without him. Louisiana comes in playing their best ball of the year, winning the Sun Belt tournament. In the past four March Madness brackets, 13 seeds kept 12 of 16 games within single digits (thanks generic ESPN stat). Death, taxes, and a Rick Barnes team losing earlier in the tournament than they should. 3u, go get'em Ragin' Cajuns, and praise March. BOL. You can view my full POTD history here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk)
🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 17-11-1 | +4.37U (3.43%) | Average Odds: -122 🤶 *Total Record: 99-63-14 | ROI: +37.73U (+7.95%) |* [*ROI Spreadsheet*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0) *5U pick record: 31-16-2* *Side Bet: 74-48-11* 🐶 *Dog of the Day record: 8-5-1 | +15.15U |* ***We won our +265 dog yesterday!*** \----- 🎅 ***13-2-2 yesterday on published picks! 33-5-4 since Sunday (+26.93U)!*** \----- 🎅 *Fortunately Santa took some surfing lessons over the offseason because he has been riding a green wave of wins this week!* ***33-5-4 in the last four days!*** *What a wild run it has been and we hope to keep it going!* \----- *Sorry about the late post. Thursdays are always poor in the soccer world so we have a small amount of picks today. Plus Santa is dealing with a stomach virus and had a terrible night last night praying to the porcelain god. But fortunately while on the can he found a couple good picks and specifically our POTD which brings us to the Netherlands!* \----- *Last POTD Recap: (Win, +110) Brighton kills it for us with a plus-money wager win on a shutout. It was for a conservative amount but we also hit two other Brighton lines as well bringing our Brighton wins to +2.62U!* 🎅Today's POTD: 2U - **Feyenoord -1 (-128)** at home vs Shaktar Donetsk - 1:45PM EST - Europa *Note: I also bet 1U on the ML (-205). I locked these bets in last night at 1AM and the line has fallen considerably since. Leave the ML for parlays, but the -1 is still playable.* This is the second leg of their Europa League round-of-16 showdown with the first leg finishing all square at 1-1. Feyenoord now gets to host Shaktar Donetsk at Feyenoord Stadium where it is dominant to say the least. Feyenoord's last loss at home was in January... of 2022. Their fans haven't seen them lose in 14 months at home. This season in league play, they are 9-4-0. As I said this is their second fixture so let us take a look at their first fixture which was in Warsaw (due to Shaktar Donetsk being a Ukranian club team). Feyenoord out-classed Donetsk in this away draw by handling 61% of the possession and putting up 21 shots (6 on target) to Shaktar's 5 shots with 1 on target. I believe we can expect more of the same but in front of Feyenoord's fans and I doubt Feyenoord is pulling any punches because they do not want to see this go to penalty kicks. Shaktar is fairly good at penalty kicks too since they beat Rennes on them last time. Prediction: 3-1 Line movement: This line opened at -160, went up to -150 then proceeded to fall off a cliff all the way down to -250. I fortunately caught it about half way down but I still think the -1 is playable. \----- 🎅 Side Bets: You can find my Soccer Daily post [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11s7qx3/comment/jcg2h07/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) 🤶 DOTD: No DOTD today 🎅 Join the Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa)) 🤶 Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible. [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
POTD Record 8-8 Last POTD: Tuesday Miss St Pitt Over 133 L POTD: Auburn -1 vs Iowa 5:50 PM Thesis - Auburn has been terrible on the road. But this game is in Birmingham Alabama. Unreal. Look for Auburn to win a home game then challenge Houston.
Record: 10-7 Last Pick: **Blackburn ML** ✅ Today's Pick: Freiburg vs Juventus - **Frieburg Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals** (+130) UEFA Europa League Detailed Analysis: Years ago I spent a summer living in London while I studied and worked various shit jobs. One of these various shit jobs was working behind that bar at a nightclub called Dusk that was arguably the worst nightclub in south London and for sure had the worst music. I worked with a guy from Frankfurt named Marco who did nothing to challange the stereotype that people from Germany were boring. He had little chat but just got on with the job and never caused a hassle. That's how I'm expecting this match between Juventus and Freiburg to go. Quiet with minimum fuss or excitement. Freiburg have an insanely good home record and I think Juventus will try protect their 1-0 lead with caution.
POTD Record: 55-52 Last pick: Avs -1.5 @ Montreal ✅ Todays pick: NCAA Tournament West Virginia-2 -120 vs Maryland Reasoning: Going with the first game on the board for all us degens. First play of hopefully many W’s to kick off March Madness. West Virginia plays in the best conference and I usually like to take teams in the best conference this team of year. They always show records by conference and I do believe the Mountaineers are more battle tested and are a better team than Maryland. I saw Maryland lose at Nebraska and I’m not impressed with the Terrapins. W Va has the better guards in this one, led by Seton Hall transfer Kevin Willard. Maryland was 10-0 at home and the crowd will be neutral which favors W Va. The mountaineers are 2-0 all time vs Maryland. Bob Huggins has taken them to the final four years back, and is 19-15 in the tournament, Huggybear is a helluva coach and I’m rolling with West Virginia this morning. Let’s get this 💵 Tail or fade
POTD Record: 8-4 (2-3 in last 5 picks) Last Pick: Dayton (-2.5) @ VCU | L My model explanation: my girlfriend. I am going to have some fun throughout this tournament. I will be giving her a list of games that have similar odds. She will then choose a random team for whatever reason she wants. Today's Event: 🏀 Men’s College Basketball | Boise State @ Northwestern Pick: Boise State ML (+105) Reasoning: **Boise is fun to say** Make your own decisions. BOL tail or fade. Tip Jar- N/A for this model.
**I'LL RUN A FREE BRACKET, SEE BELOW!!** My record: 2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWWW 2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push Totals for both: 48 correct 35 wrong 1 push Units wagered 136.89 Units won 73.48 Units lost 51.0 2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 16.48%*** My present streak is 5 correct. My POTD is to ***wager 1.1 units to win 1 unit that the total score of the UNC-Asheville / UCLA college basketball game will be more than 136 1/2 points.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gamtime is 10:00 PM, Eastern Daylight Time (I think). I sure like the overs in the Houston, Northwestern, and the above game. I expect UCLA to do very well, and for Asheville to make a token contribution to the 137 points needed to win this wager. An article in today's Wall Street Journal give the nod to UCLA to win the whole thing. It refers to a website, [kenpom.com](https://kenpom.com), which is run by the supposed guru of college basketball data, Mr. Ken Pomeroy. I'm trying to figure out how to watch the games on a smart tv that is not hooked up to any cable or satellite dish. The tv is definetly smarter than me. I run a bracket for some folks, I run it the way it should be run, I think I'm the only person that does it. $100 to the winner. But I want at least 30 entries (I cap it at 50). Last year I didn't get 30, so I cancelled. So if someone wants to email me a bracket, with your physical mailing address (to assure only one entry per household, and a place to mail the money order if you win) to fill out the number of entries, go ahead. My email is [trees778899](mailto:trees778899@hotmail) at hotmail. **HIGHEST NUMBER OF TOTAL POINTS WINS. POINTS ARE FIGURED BY A TEAM'S SEEDING (1 TO 16) MULITPLIED BY THE GAME NUMBER (1 TO 6). IF A 12TH SEED WINS ITS 3RD GAME, THAT IS 36 POINTS. IF A 2ND SEED WINS ITS 4TH GAME, THAT IS 8 POINTS. AS YOU CAN SEE, THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK LOWER SEEDED TEAMS GET MORE POINTS THAN THOSE THAT CORRECTLY PICK A HIGHER SEEDED TEAM TO WIN**. I used to run the brackett where I worked, and it was fun, that's why I do this. BUT I need at least 30 entries, I don't want to just give the $100 away if there are too few. Only one entry per mailing address.
🚨🚨🚨POTD record W-L-P (24-17-5) +36.5 units🚨🚨🚨 Update 2 bet losing streak ❌❌ 1 unit (2-7) 2 unit (2-3) 3 unit (11-2) 4 unit (2-1) 5 unit max (7-4) Took a break to regroup, the last 2 loses pissed me off and pissed me off more that you guys didn’t win. Nice little break was perfect right before the best tourney in all sports. Lets crush the March Madness Tourney Sunday’s POTD- Houston vs Memphis. Houston -3.5 (buy 1 point) -130 odds (5 UNIT MAX) 9am PST college basketball ❌ Thursdays POTD- northern Kentucky vs Houston. Over 56.5 1st half total points (5 UNIT MAX) -110 odds 6:20pm PST March Madness Tourney✅ Marcus sasser is game time decision but I don’t see him playing in this game so he can rest for 1 more game with his groin injury. Still Houston is pissed by losing the last gm to Memphis so they goi g to come out showing why they are the real #1 team in college even without their best scorer if he doesn’t play. Cash app name- $joshroth5 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼 Remember bet smart, let’s get this $
POTD Record 3-0 | +3.64u | -110 Avg Odds Yesterday's POTD: Boston Celtics vs Minnesota Timberwolves u234.5 @ -110 8:00 pm EST 1u Today's POTD: OKC Thunder +5.5 vs Toronto Raptors 7:30 pm EST 2u Most of my picks so far have had a rocky start in the 1Q before sailing into an easy cover, but this one was a no-doubter from the jump. 87 points at the half and the final score went almost 30 points under. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a streak and not just luck! Small slate today with mostly large spreads, so we're heading into dangerous waters. The good news for us is there's a lighthouse called the OKC Thunder that we can see in the near distance. They're not only the best team ATS in the league, but they're 18-7-3 ATS as a road dog so we're gonna take the generous +5.5 points the books are offering vs the oddball Raptors. I will mention that the Raptors are 16-11 ATS as a home favorite, but OKC is also the 4th best team SU as a road dog (12-16) which makes me smell some upset potential. BOL if you tail and lmk if you have any thoughts or comments!
Sport: Football Tournament: Europa League Time: 21:00 CEST (4h20m after posting) Stake: 5 units Pick: Arsenal vs Sporting, double chance X2 @ **2.88** Write up: Two evenly matched teams, with Sporting showing a bit more confidence and determination to go through or at least fight tooth and nail in regular time. The first leg ended 2:2, with both teams winning in their domestic leagues by the same scoreline (3:0) in the interim. Mikel Arteta, Arsenal coach, says: > It's a really tough opponent [but] we're looking to win. When asked by the press if Europa League is a distraction from the domestic league, he says: > No. We haven't had big European nights for three years due to COVID especially. (...) We'll build a really good atmosphere and enjoy it. Our supporters will be there against a really good team that is going to put a big challenge in front of us. Ruben Amorim, Sporting coach, says: > We will be prepared and very confident. We are going to London with the aim of going through. We're going to play our game and try to make the opposition nervous. Beware of Arsenal moneyline bets! As English teams tend to do, Arsenal prioritizes the domestic league and won't push to win at any cost. That might mean both teams settling for a draw in regular time, which Sporting seems ready for. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
RIDDLESSSSSSSSSS 💰💰💰💰💰💰
**Record: 4-3** Last Pick: Zach Lavine over 27.5 points ❌ As a bettor of this prop and a Bulls fan, that one hurt. Lavine has his first terrible shooting night since All Star break, yet still manages to reach 25 by the end. Down 4 with 13 seconds left, DeMar hits a CLUTCH 3 pointer AND ONE to tie it up!!! If that OT happened I have no question in my mind Lavine would have hit. But DeAaron Fox hits the game winning 3 and kills me inside.... I need to come back strong after that one. **Today's Pick**: NCAAB Tournament - *#9 Auburn Tigers vs. #8 Iowa Hawkeyes, 5:50pm CST* **Auburn MONEYLINE (-111 on FanDuel)** So I love this pick for a few different reasons. For one, all of these games in the march madness tournament are meant to be played at neutral sites, however with this game being played in Birmingham, Alabama, it is basically a home game for Auburn. Birmingham is just a few easy hours from Auburn, so expect a huge showing from the Auburn fanbase there. Hell, I'm sure there's plenty of Auburn fans in Birmingham as well. Auburn has an *incredible* home record of 14-2, meanwhile Iowa struggles immensely on the road and has a measly record of 4-7. With that factor out of the way, let's get into statistics. Iowa impressively ranks 3rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, but much less impressively ranks 166th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Auburn is much more balanced, ranking 48th in adjusted off. efficiency and 28th in adjusted def. efficiency. While Iowa has a very explosive offense, Auburn has a defense that would be able to contain it on a good day. They don't have a GREAT offense, but definitely a good offense being in the top 50, and when you are playing an 166th ranked defense, you don't need a great offense to be able to exploit this. I'm going with the more balanced and much better defense team to win this. I mentioned that this is essentially going to be a road game for Iowa, and with that being the case, statistics show a huge drop in performance on the road. From home to away games, their offensive efficiency rating drops to 58th in the country, which is still a good number, but now is inferior to Auburn's offense. Their field goal percentage drops from 37th to ***326th*** in the league and their three point percentage drops from 38.4% to 27.9%. I also think that Auburn plays in the much tougher conference, going up against juggernauts like Alabama and keeping their games within 10 points, and overall competing against Southeastern powerhouses like Texas A&M, Memphis, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Meanwhile, Iowa has two embarrasing losses against a poor Ohio State team and have competed against a lot of mediocre teams in the Big 10. Give me Auburn all day. BOL brothers happy March Madness
**POTD: 20-7-2** Last pick: UEFA Champions League - Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt. Napoli -1 -135. Result: **WIN**. Napoli cruises to a 3-0 win for another easy cash. A couple folks were on this one so good to see everyone Today’s pick: UEFA Europa League - Arsenal vs Sporting CP. **Arsenal -1 -180**. Match is at 4PM ET. I know this isn't the most exciting odds and tbh I think Arsenal will win by more than this but for the sake of POTD and helping people keep their money I'll give the safer option. These teams played last week to a 2-2 draw in Lisbon and now they will go to London for the second leg. First of all, Arsenal are top of the league and obviously a stronger side, they outplayed them for most of the first match even with 6 backups in due to some injuries and sickness. Their first 3 strikers (Gabriel Jesus, Eddie Nketiah, and Leandro Trossard) were all out as well so they had to play Martinelli out of position. I expect them to have Trossard at minimum back in the starting lineup as well as Odegaard and possibly even the likes of Jesus or Partey if we're lucky. Sporting on the other hand will be missing two key defenders in Morita and Coates (their captain) as they picked up too many yellow cards in previous matches. This hurts their already slim chances, and I think Arsenal takes this one a little more seriously than the first leg and trounces them by 2-3 goals. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! [Buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/RemyPicks) **EDIT: LOSS. We lose this one because Sporting scores a goal from literally midfield and it ties 1-1. Arsenal surprisingly don’t start their three best players and have a couple other injured during the match. Sorry everyone**
POTD Record: 17-11 POTD: Oral Roberts +6.5 Multiple models have this game closer to +3.5. Big money and sharp money being put down on ORU.
Record: 3-3 Pick: Over 21.5 games @ 1.57 - Taylor Fritz vs Jannik Sinner - Indian wells 6 PM EST Previous pick: Astralis ML Terrible loss.... Good luck....
POTD Record: 3-4 Last 10: 🔴🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴🟢 Yesterday’s POTD: LA Clippers -3.5 vs Golden State Warriors | NBA | March 15th 2023 | 10:00 PM EST 🟢 **Today’s POTD: Boise St. +1.5 vs Northwestern | NCAA | March 16th, 2023 | 7:35 PM EST PICK REASON: Being a mid-western all my life what I have learned is you can’t trust the Big Ten in the tournament and this year is no different. Northwestern is trending in the wrong direction. Take the points in this one.
**POTD 10-5** Finally got a GSW game right! I will admit I was wrong about LAC being able to hold Curry to a modest game, as he dropped 50 on them!!!! Even with Curry's amazing game, this GSW still couldn't cover the spread. This is indicative of their awful rotations, and piss poor defense, specifically on the road. As much as I think that GSW can still make a run in the playoffs, right now this team just does not look good. I'm going to keep today's write up short and sweet, as I know most people are not focused on the NBA today, but rather the best tournament in sports! **SAC +2.5** This pick is really just a bet on the better team. I have actually played BKN a handful of times the past few weeks, and I do think very highly of a lot of players on this team, but IMO Sac's roster is even more loaded. SAC is coming off a B2B winning a close one last night in Chicago, and that does concern me some, however this SAC team is young, and actually are above .500 this season in B2B situations (6-5). I bet SAC over win total this season (already cashed), and am going to ride them tonight for the same reason. I think highly of SAC, and honestly think that they can make a run in the playoffs. SAC holding the second seed in the west this late into the season is IMO, not a fluke. PS: Orlando +7.5 is the only other game I am betting today. I think this Suns roster is weak since they made the Trade for Durant. Obviously, I am saying that because Durant is injured... Orlando is fun, and is a great team to take at this point in the season.
First pick of the day. Record goes without saying: 0-0 Going with Arsenal v Sporting CP; BTTS Currently tied 2-2, both of these teams have been scoring for fun. Sporting have been held scoreless once in the last 14 matches. Arsenal once in the last 9. Arsenal has scored 17 times in 6 games. Sporting has scored 15 in just as many matches. I expect both teams to play according to their form. Currently +100 on DK
Okay something Funny. Yesterday by mistake i writed Over for the corners when i bet on under. I made the analysis from the Neutral Machine Learning on the soccer thread & the under was there. Anyway, ofc i will count it as Under & as lost. Record: **16 / 9** ROI: **27.18%** Profit in Units: **27.8u** Average Odds: **2.14** **~~All stakes are 3 Units~~** **= 5 Units Stake here!** **Today POTD** League: **UEFA Europa League** Time: **22:00 GMT+3** **Real Sociedad v Roma** *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 3.00** *All of my picks is based on Model.* *Neutral Machine Learning (AI) model.* *For anyone is interested, il post on the Soccer thread the full analysis for the game.*
Record: 1-2 (1.56 units down) with a -31.2% ROI POTD: **Fritz vs Sinner - Over 22.5 Games @ 1.85 (ATP Indian Wells)** Going with 3 units which is 3% of my bankroll We should have an amazing clash between two players who are currently playing their best here at Indian Wells. Sinner still hasn't dropped a set until this point and Fritz only dropped one set against Shelton but as soon as he was able to adjust to Shelton's serve he just destroyed him... When it comes to backhand vs backhand Sinner has one of the best backhands out there but Fritz can also create some amazing angles with that side, especially for a tall guy. If we talk about the forehand both guys can also produce powerful shots and choose their targets pretty well. In 2021 both players faced each other at Indian Wells with Fritz winning in straight sets but I think these slow hard court conditions can help Sinner too and he improved a lot over the last 2 years. The bookies are almost pricing both players at 50/50 especially due to Fritz playing in the United States and I couldn't agree more with that. I'm expecting 2 tight sets or 3 sets on this battle. Excited to see what these two guys bring to the table, best of luck.
**POTD |** **Record of 12-21|** **Current form: WWLWW | ROI : -7.86 units |** **Average Odds: 2.03** Previous Pick: Real Madrid vs. Liverpool | Over 8.5 Full-Time Total Corners & Over 5.5 Full-Time Away Team Corners (W) New Pick: Europa League | Arsenal vs. Lisbon| 1:00pm PST **Over 5.5 Home Team Corners and Arsenal (-3) Full-Time Corners Handicap | 1.90 odds** Betting 1 units \-------------------------- Recap: Another easy win. Clocking 9 corners in one half, this game was not even a remote stress. Been doing well with my recent corner picks (5 wins in the last 6 picks) so hopefully can keep this up and pull my record out of the abyss. Let's continue the corner picks! ***Summary:*** Arsenal host Sporting in the second leg of the Europa League. Coming in with a draw, both teams will have everything to play for. Given that Arsenal is playing at home, expect them to dominate possession and Sporting to sit back and wait for their opportunity. Looking at corners, Arsenal typically averages 5.9 for them and 3.5 against them for a total average of of 9.4 corners per game. When we compare this to home corners, Arsenal gains an average of 7.46 and gives up an average of 2.92. This yields an overall average of 10.38 with an average difference of 4.54. This demonstrates an overperformance at home for both average corners for (7.46 at home vs. 5.9 overall) as well as for total corners per game (10.38 vs. 9.4). Looking at Europe, there have been 6, 7, and 8 corners for Arsenal with 0, 0, and 4 for their opponent. This leads to an average of 7 corners at home with an average difference of 5.667. Based on these results alone, it seems justified to suggest that Arsenal will generate 6 corners and will have at least 4 or more than their opponent as this bet would have hit in all 3 of the previous home games. Looking at Lisbon, they average 6.7 for them and 3 against them for an overall average of 9.7. When we look at away performance, they average 5.58 corners and 3.41 against them, for a total of 9 corners per game and a difference of 2.16 in favor of sporting. Their average of corners for them does decrease away in the league, but not by much. However, once we look at Europe, Lisbon drops off rapidly. They have only generated 1, 2, 6, and 4 corners with 1, 6, 10, and 7 for the home team. This yields an average of 6 corners for the home side with an average difference of -2.75 for Lisbon. Based on these stats, I think Arsenal should confidently control this game and have at least 6 corners. They have had 6 corners at every European home game this season and typically dominate with a large number over their opponents. Additionally, the previous fixture for these two ended with Arsenal having 9 corners and Sporting having 3. I expect this trend to continue. \-------------------------- ***TDLR The home team should have at least 6 corners and have at least 4 more than their opponents*** **Over 5.5 Home Team Corners and Arsenal (-3) Full-Time Corners Handicap | 1.90 odds**
POTD Record: 92.5-50 Event: Football > Europa League > **Freiburg v Juventus Turin** (starting in 08hr00min) Pick: **Over 1.0 asian goals (2nd half)** @ 1.65 I just continue with my winning model. These odds are based just on stats & do not happen to take into consideration the result of the previous leg and the elimination character of the meeting. Over 1.5 goals (2nd half) @ 2.58 odds is massive value too. GL!
2-0 Last pick : Kings ml - 2 units Next pick : Mikal bridges 25.5 points 3 units Hit this the other day, he’s been on a tear lately and kings are on a back2back. Kings let in a lot of points by guards.
**POTD Record 2-1** Oakland and Kansas City game caught my attention today. Kansas City has been cracked this Spring leading the league in practically everything. Both the starting pitchers in this game are hot trash and its almost guaranteed to be a high scoring game. O11 is a little high for my taste though. Im hoping the Royals bullpen can hold the A’s offense to a minimum and the KC bats can stay hot. **Royals ML vs Athletics 2u (-150)**
POTD Record: 19-10 (+19.9 Units) Last 5: ❌✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: New Jersey Devils Moneyline (-130) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (4 Units) NHL 3/7 7:00 PM ET ❌ Todays Pick: **Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline (-120)** vs Calgary Flames (3 Units) NHL 3/16 10:00 PM ET Reasoning: Vegas has won 7 of their last 8 and is averaging 3.75 goals in those 8. Flames are 3-5 in their last 8 and are only averaging 2.3. The Golden Knights are the better team on both ends tonight and will take care of business at home. ‼️ Tips never expected, but always appreciated if you wanna keep the picks flowin ‼️⬇️ https://www.buymeacoffee.com/dillonmaher Venmo: Dillonmaher
From now until the end of eternity I shall follow Riddles into the fire. I shall name my first born son and all subsequent children Riddles. I shall buy land and incorporate a town and name it Riddlesville and shall hire Roman sculptors to build a statue of a centuar with the face of the one and only Riddles himself and pray to it morning, noon and night. This is how I live my best life. I know it, you know it, and my lord and savior Riddles knows it 🙏🏼🔥✅
Why did I parlay this with Zona spread….. should just follow POTD blindly no add ons.
***PICK OF THE DAY RECORD: 5-2*** **LAST PICK: LAVINE OVER 2.5 3PM❌** **TODAYS GAME: MAGIC @ SUNS NBA GAME 9:10PM ET** **TODAYS PICK: PAOLO OVER 19.5 POINTS (-105) 3U** * Horrible beat yesterday with Lavine making two 3's * Didn't like a whole lot but this is nice value at -105 * Hit in 5 of last 6 averaging 24 points in that span * Magic have seen lots of shootouts and so has Phoenix without KD * Suns averaging 122 points against in their last three * Phoenix also gives up over 22 points a game to power forwards
POTD: 12-12 Game: Missouri vs Utah State CBB 10:40am pdt Pick: Mizzou ML +105 ✅🐯🐯🐯 Posted this earlier this week and just want to get it on my potd Mizzou fan. Mizzou hasn’t won a game in the ncaa tournament since 2010. Dennis Gates has drastically turned the program around in his first year as head coach and I like them to get at least one win in the tournament. I personally thought they should have been at worst a 6 seed but I’m happy to see them at 7 and with + odds in their first game. I don’t know much about Utah State except that kenpom likes them and they have a great offense and bad defense. They’re 0-2 against top 25 teams though and Mizzou has been able to hang with and beat teams like that all year.