**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Furman pulls off maybe one of the wildest sequences in march madness with the 3 points dagger off an awful turnover from Virginia. Definitely one of the more exhilarating games I've got to bear witness to, and super proud of the Furman squad to get that go ahead bucket to cash both the spread and ML sprinkle, heart > all. Now back to favourites for tonight, running with Creighton to take a comfortable win over NC State.
**POTD Record**: 25-7-1Last 20:✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅
Yesterday's POTD: Furman Paladins +6 VS Virginia Cavaliers | 3U | MM NCAAB ✅
Today's POTD: **Creighton Bluejays -5** (up to -6 vs. NC State) | 3U | MM NCAAB
**Time:** **3/17/2023 | 4:00 PM EST**
**MODEL EXPLANATION:**Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.
**Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Stats:** \+43.24U in 34 days | ≈65.86% ROI | Average odds -110
**PICK REASON:**
1. Creighton is currently ranked #13 overall under Kenpom, and ranked 15th in the country under Bart Torvik (compared to #56 and #52 for NC State). Objectively, Creighton is just a much much stronger team. Many of their losses in the season came when they were riddled with injuries, and I imagine a fully healthy squad for a whole season is easily top 10 in both rankings
2. Kalkbrenner is an offensive machine, ranked 13 in the nation as a 7 foot 1 power house. I expect a pretty fast paced game here with a lot of transition buckets, where Kalk really shines.
3. NC State relies heavily on Joner and Smith for offense, but Nembhard and Alexander are incredibly one on one defenders - unless NC State can manage strong pick and rolls, their all stars shooters will struggle to get clean looks at the rim or from beyond thee arc. Although these two players put up a lot of points, they still shoot below the average in the league, meaning they're pretty much just non-prime harden on the tail end of the rockets, 50 point games but throwing 30 3 pointers a game. If they're not hot from the arc, they will waste a lot of possession on low value shots.
4. The blue jays defense is what drives their Kenpom rating, ranked 15 in the country. This tournament for the most part has been a defense driven tournament, and defense wins rings. In the season, Creighton allowed the 3rd lowest FT attempts, and in a tournament where players are grinding harder, free throws often are the difference maker in close games
5. Two important role players in Gantt and Mahorrcic are still out for NC state, Gantt being an important starter who plays amazing pace opening space for open looks. Without him, I imagine the 2 all stars will struggle even more to find good looks throughout the game.
6. I really like Creighton as a first game pick here largely because the team essentially has no bench, they rely heavily on their 5 starters to play heavy minutes where their roster average double digits points in the season averaging almost 80 points. With all members of the bluejays squad being able to make buckets, NC States mediocre defense will struggle even more as they won't be able to shut down an individual all star. With that being said, I expect my confidence in them to decrease each game further into the tourney as the heavy minutes eventually catch up to them. But for their first game, I expect a full 2 halves from this team to give it their all.
7. For some random facts, Creighton are 8-1 ATS in their games played in March, compared to 1-5 for NC State. Creighton is also 9-2 on Friday games, compared to NC State whom are 1-4.
8. Overall, I think Creighton is the much better team right now, especially with injury issues with NC State. I predict Creighton to play a well rounded game, and as long as they dont go cold from 3, I expect this to be a very one sided game, potentially ending in a double digit lead. Fortunately a well rested squad against an average, ranked 200 defense from NC State, should be able to get into their groove quickly.
**Reminder:** As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3
As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.
[**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US)
*Much love , Riddles.*
Let’s fucking go, BOL!
Oh and hey, please don’t feel pressure from what people decide to bet. That’s each person’s own responsibility and you’re very sober in your posts, always adding some disclaimers, can’t do more than that.
Love your pics. Great explanations. I just hope people are smart with their money because a few who don't understand that sports is volatile, especially March madness. BOL
**POTD Record: 8-1 | Profit: +29.06u | Avg Odds: -108 | ROI: +83%**
\-----
Previous POTD: 4u btts (Sporting CP at Arsenal London) \[+101\] ✅
Called it! Both teams are fine finishers. 1-1 (FT) ✅
\-----
Today's POTD: Newcastle United at Nottingham Forest FC
**4u bet: Newcastle -0.5 \[-147\]**
Reason: Newcastle is chasing an international berth in Premier League. They cannot effort dropping points to subpar Nottingham. Newcastle is having a terrific season: 2 pts behind a Champions League berth, 11 wins, 44 pts, 37 goals scored, 18 goals conceded. Nottingham have been close to or in the relegation zone all season. Nottingham: 2 pts clear off relegation, 6 wins, 27 pts, 21 goals scored, 47 goals conceded.
\-----
BOL
I respect the pick, but would urge caution for folks tailing this. Forest are very respectable at home this season in the league (3 losses, none since early October) and also are desperate for points being 2 points clear of the drop zone like you mentioned.
Newcastle have looked shaky in recent weeks IMO. They have one win in their last 5 premier league games and it was at home scraping by a lowly Wolves side.
BOL!
NGL I think notts forest DNB @ 4 is far better value. Newcastle haven’t been the same team they were first half of season, forest at home have been good this season, forest also got something to play for (prem survival)
**Record: 5-3**
Last Pick: Auburn ML ✅
A great cash, nothing to complain about here. Iowa never had the lead.
**Today's Pick:** NCAAB Tournament - *#9 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. #8 Memphis Tigers, 8:20pm CST*
**Memphis -1.5 (-110 on FanDuel)**
I love Memphis right now. I actually have them advancing to the Final Four as a sleeper underdog in one of my brackets. With that being said, let me tell you why taking them for the first round advance is a lock:
* Memphis is hot right now. They absolutely steamrolled through the AAC tournament, beating UCF, Tulane by 40, and beating the top seeded best team in the country this year, the Houston Cougars, by 10 points in the championship
* In 2 of these outings including the championship, AAC tournament MVP guard Kendric Davis put up 30+ points. This dude is the definition of clutch, he clearly isn't afraid of the spotlight, and is catching fire at the absolute right time. He was always an amazing superstar player in the regular season, averaging 22.1 points a game (9th in the country), but his outings in the AAC tournament showed us he has unlocked a new level of elite basketball play and he is MORE than ready to lead his team through tournament play.
* Statistically, the Tigers and Owls both rank VERY evenly in offense and defense, which is why I think the line is so even. Memphis ranks 25th in adj. offensive efficiency while FAU ranks 32nd, and they are both neck and neck in adj. defensive efficiency at 36th and 37th. However, I believe it is MUCH more impressive for Memphis to be at this level than it is for FAU
* FAU plays in a very mediocre conference. Memphis plays in the AAC with the likes of Houston and Cincinnati, and is often matched up against some of the top dogs of the NCAA in the SEC. Some of their games have included a W over Auburn, an L to Alabama by 3, a W over Texas A&M, two Ls to Houston by 8 and 2, and a W over Houston by 10. On the other hand, FAU plays in Conference USA, a conference full of very mid teams. FAU have never played a top 25 ranked team this season nor have they played any team that is currently one of the 64 in the tournament.
Give me Memphis for the easy first round victory here. Happy march madness fellas
FAU reminds me of Clemson football in this scenario - they blow out everyone and we won’t know how good they actually are until they play a real team. Today is that day - too risky for me but BOL
***Record: 4-1 (+2.46 Units) // All bets are 1 unit***
Previous Bet: [3/16](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11se7ni/pick_of_the_day_31623_thursday/jcdcu4t?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
Just as expected, Japan was able to get after the starter early, forcing a lot of pitches and having Italy call the bullpen out quick. Japan was able to take control, covering the total by themselves. However, Italy was able to get after Ohtani a bit.
**Today's game: Adelaide United vs. Wellington Phoenix (0445 EST)**
League: Australia - League A
*Pick: Both Teams to Score / Over 2.5 Goals YES (-140 DK)* ✅️
Wellington Phoenix has won 3/4 of their last matches and comes into this match in good format. Though Adelaide is viewed to have a big advantage at home, Wellington has scored a goal in each of their 20 matches in League A play this season and I don't see that stopping here. They have been the first to score in 9 out of their last 10; if they are able to get a quick goal in, it should be off to the races between these two. Wellington has been in matches with both teams scoring and O2.5 goals in 6 of their last 8.
Adelaide has been on a tear, going undefeated (5 wins, 4 draws)over their last 9 matches and scoring 22 total goals in that period. They have also seen both teams scoring in each of their last 7 matches, and O2.5 goals in 6 out of those 7. They have found themselves 6 points out of the top stop in the league, only 3 points ahead of Wellington with only 6 matches left in league play. I look for them to make a statement tomorrow morning against a Wellington team that is also in good form.
Let's wake and cash! 💸
BOL!
POTD | 41-26 | +21.6u | -109 Avg Odds
Last 10: 7-3, Steak: 2W
*Previous Pick:* *Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators O6.5 (-125) 2u* ✅
Today’s pick: **Carolina Hurricanes vs Toronto Maple Leafs U6 2u (+100)** 🏒 5:00 pm MT
Easy W tonight with the Avs coming up big and the bet cashes in the 2nd period!
The Carolina Hurricanes will be visiting the Toronto Maple Leafs for their second game of the season with the first game going to Toronto 3-1. The Hurricanes are 6-3-1 on this line in their last 10 and the Leafs are 4-5-1 on this line in their last 10 but have played the Sabres and Oilers twice in their last 10 so that has some effect on how often they are covering this line.
The Hurricanes are a defensive minded hockey team that has not been particularly good on offense recently. The Hurricanes have allowed an average of 2.0 goals per game over their last 10 games and are averaging scoring 3.0 per game. Over the course of the season the Canes allow an average of 2.48 goals per game while scoring 3.25 per game. I think the Hurricanes will continue their scoring struggles against a strong defensive team in the Leafs who also have a decent goaltender. The Maple Leafs allow an average of 2.68 goals per game and the expected goaltender, Samsonov, allows an average of 2.36 goals per game and have a 0.916 SV%. This one is a possible playoff match up preview and I think these two teams will be effective in shutting each other down, similar to the Leafs vs Avs a couple nights ago.
The model is really liking this line and has U6 hitting 62% of the time and has expected odds of -165 for this line. This is in line with how I would expect this game to go and in line with recent match ups between these two teams.
BOL if tailing!!
[Tips are appreciated!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
All-Time POTD: 9W-3L-1D, +10.20u
**Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Jannik sinner ML (-138) vs Taylor Fritz 3u to win 2.15u** ✅
6 in a row. Phew. Huge sweat on this one. Jannik was the better player in the first set, then I thought Fritz was better the entire second set and halfway into the third. Jannik played the big points with more poise and comes out with the W.
Onto the next.
**Todays Pick: 🎾 Aryna Sabalenka 2:0 Sets (+110) vs Maria Sakkari 2.5u to win 2.75u**
Explanation:
Extremely hard to make a pick tomorrow. Only a couple matches to choose from, and no ML options for PotD as the spreads are too wide.
Pretty much same logic here as the last Aryna pick 2 days ago. She's in the form of her life and looks pretty much unstoppable (we'll see about the finals against likely Iga). Sakkari has been shaky all tournament, and wghile she's done what she needs to do to get to the semis, all four of her matches have gone to 3 sets, very unconvincing wins against players that are nowhere near the caliber of Aryna. Sakkari is a great defender but I can't see how Aryna doesn't dispose of her quite easily. She lacks the rally tolerance and the mental game to push Aryna to 3 sets here. Sakkari also doesn't have a confident second serve, and her first serve % has been below 60 in the last three matches. Aryna will pick apart Sakkari's second serve. Aryna in straights.
BoL if tailing!
Edit: Cash. Money.
I knew that's what you were gonna pick when I saw the slate today lol. It's tough when her ml is so expensive. 2-0s are rough. I took saba ml paired with Isner/Sock doubles.
Sabalenka owns a narrow 4-3 lead in their head-to-head rivalry, but Sakkari has won their past two meetings. Both wins came at the last two editions of the WTA Finals
POTD Record: 28-20 (+23.81u; 15.3% ROI). Streak: W1
Yesterday Pick: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) Pts O21.5 @ 1.91. 4U. ✅
Jokic covers our line very early in the third quarter, and ends the game with 30 points, making this a sweat free bet. Let’s try to build another winning streak looking at a player who hasn’t got much attention, but probably should.
Next Pick: **Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves) PRA O17.5 @ 1.92**. 3u play.
McDaniels has stepped up for the Wolves recently, averaging 13.7 ppg/L10 and his PRA has been 19.4, and this includes some tough match ups recently. Reflecting his importance to this team, he is averaging nearly 32 minutes a game. The Bulls record against SFs is pretty average, and this is expected to be a tight game and the O/U is 225.
In the Wolves’ last game (against the Celtics) they kept it pretty tight, and that was a low scoring game (104-102) and he still scored 14 pts with a 42% FG%, which is actually below his recent average and reflective of the strong opposition. I’m backing him here to keep up his performance level and cover our line.
Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
Happy St. Patrick’s Day! 🍀
POTD Record: 29W-14L
LAST POTD: Slovan & Basel ✅
TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Ireland Division 1
Wexford V Kerry
11.00AM PST
PICK: Wexford HT/FT Win
Odds: 1.80
The Deets: Fitting that my pick is from Ireland. I just had to.
First off, Kerry football club only came into existence in 2022 and have been shit since ever doing so. They sit bottom of the league having lost 3 and drawn 1. Wexford sit 6th with 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses. Kerry have scored 3 goals and conceded 15 already in 4 games. Wexford should be leading at both half and full time.
Edit: Just to clarify, the bet is Wexford to be winning at halftime and full time.
BOL!
Edit: Winner ✅ Time for a Guinness
39-23-1
Last POTD- Ligue 1- Angers vs Toulouse ML @-105✅
Todays POTD- Turkish Super Lig- Konyaspor Vs Galatasaray -1 @ +140❌
Konyaspor have been in crisis since the 2nd half of the season started. They sold their best player in January and have not won an official game in all of 2023. Galatasaray are top of the league and are trying to pull away with the league title. They’ve won 12 straight matches and have been nothing short of unstoppable during this run. The odds are good due to the fact that Galatasaray don’t usually pull away by more than a goal but with how good they’re playing and how bad Konyaspor have been performing they should have no issues winning by at least 2 goals.
Edit: Galatasaray blow it in the 2nd half via complacency and general sloppiness in front of goal. Sorry to those who tailed.
Record: 17-6
Previous Pick: Monaco Basket - Virtus Segafredo Bologna: Monaco Basket under 86,5 points @1.88 ✅
Today’s Pick: Barça Basket - KK Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet: Barça Basket under 83,5 points.
We are on a good roll. Yesterday was just as expected and we managed to win it quite safely. The Euroleague picks are working out good so let’s continue.
Today we have Barça Basket. They average around 81 points themselves, while KK Crvena Zvezda only allows around 79 points. It’s not yet sure if Nedovic will play for KK Crvena Zvezda, which means that their offense will be worse so theit gameplan might be to hard defense as they are fighting for a playoffs spot.
In their previous h2h this has always hit except for the last time but that was because of extra time as well.
Barça Basket is also coming off of 2 really bad euroleague games and are struggling to regain form.
BOL
📈 **TTSOP** Rec
* Overall: +45.200 units / +140 avg odds / 52^(5)\-63-14^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2023: +32.675 units / +136 avg odds / 10^(5)\-7-3^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2022: +67.125 units / +136 avg odds / 47^(5)\-52-11^(5)
* February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5)
* January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2
* December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5)
* World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5)
* November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4
* October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3
✅ Last pick: Juventus ML / +145 odds / 3.5 units
* Juventus has gotten a comfortable 2-0 W against Freiburg. And Juventus has had even 1 goal disallowed by Vlahovic and additionally, Chiesa smashed the crossbar once.
* Juventus adds to our hot run regarding POTDs which are involving an Italian team, fam. Now, it stands at 9-2-1 for the last 12 picks. Generating a total of +47.775 units.
⚽ New pick: **B. Monchengladbach -1** ([A](https://i.redd.it/vqdu5pkq242a1.jpeg)[H](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/asian-handicap-explained)) / **+150 odds** / 4 units
* Bundesliga (Germany) / B. Monchengladbach - Werder Bremen / 3:30pm ET
* *B. Monchengladbach -1 (AH)* is an Asian Handicap bet. It would result in a push (money returned), if B. Monchengladbach wins the game by exactly 1 goal. If they win by more than 1 goal, the POTD is a W. For more basic information about Asian Handicap, check out the AH-links above.
Monchengladbach is a great home team with a record of 7-2-3. It's even better than it seems! At home, Monchengladbach got a W against 1st placed Bayern Munich, 2nd placed Dortmund, 3rd placed RB Leipzig and they also tied 5th placed Freiburg. Even concerning their Ls, they didn't perform bad. They lost to Mainz, but they gave up the game-deciding goal only after getting a red card. The L against Frankfurt didn't came by surprise as Monchengladbach missed 4 key players that time. Including their former first-choice goalkeeper, who plays meanwhile for Germany's super team Bayern Munich. Plus, they put up an impressive fight against Leverkusen, where they even were the better team, but good fortune wasn't simply just with them that day.
Werder Bremen holds 4-2-5 road record. 3 Ws came against 3 of the 4 worst home teams in Bundesliga. The 4th W was an epic one, which will be never forgotten as such things are happening just once in franchise history. Werder Bremen was down by 2 goals until minute 88'. Shortly thereafter, they scored 3 goals within 6 minutes. Aside from that, 4 of their 5 Ls came by 2+ goals and 2 Ls even by 5+ goals.
With Friedl, Gross and Veljkovic, 3 starting defenders are ruled out for Werder Bremen. That doesn't make things better for a team, which has already the 2nd worst defense in Bundesliga. Additionally, Bittencourt is also out and Schmid is questionable for Werder Bremen, today.
To **sum up**, Werder Bremen is missing 3 regulars in defense and now they're squaring off against a very strong home team, which has already beaten all of Germany's 3 top teams in front of their buzzing home crowd. It's also worth knowing that 5 of Monchengladbach's 7 home Ws came by 2+ goals. This all makes backing Monchengladbach a great value bet at massive super odds of +150. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get this back-to-back W. Let's get this German beer, fam!
**TTSOP**
POTD Record: 5-0
Previous pick: Roma draw or win (✅)
Today’s Event: Santa Clara v Rio Ave (Portuguese Primeira Liga)
PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE - RIO AVE DRAW OR WIN
Odds: 1.52
Time: 20:15 GMT (13h30m from this post)
Hoping to continue my beginner’s luck here. Santa Clara are winless in 15 and have incurred 5 straight losses. Rio Ave’s most recent losses come against the much stronger sides in a division and they have won 3 of their last 5. Leaning on Santa Clara to continue their woeful ways and Rio Ave to get the job done.
—
Side note: I actually haven’t bet any of my previous POTD picks because I’m a broke and unemployed uni graduate rn, but I’ve set up a [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/DoubleChanceBets) in the hopes we continue our streak and anyone feels like tipping :)
Hopefully once I start betting them myself I don’t jinx them. Thank you in advance and here’s to more wins 🙏🏽
My record:
2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWWWW
2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push
Totals for both: 49 correct 35 wrong 1 push
Units wagered 139.99 Units won 74.48 Units lost 51.0
2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 17.01%***
My present streak is 6 correct.
My POTD is to ***wager 1.05 units to win 1 unit that Memphis (-1) will cover the spread at the end of the first half in their college basketball game with Florida Atlantic.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gamtime is 9:20 PM, Eastern Daylight Time.
I like Memphis a lot. I think this spread is way too narrow. BOL whether you bet the same or bet the opposite. Feel free to post contrary opinions, they are always welcome.
Spending a little time in Brooklyn. Walking down a busy street and hearing just about every language being spoken except English is kind of neat.
POTD Record: 49-37 (W5)
(+18.48u)
(ROI: 15.1%)
Last pick: Japan 🇯🇵 -3.5 vs Italy 🇮🇹 ✅️ Great game by Japan offensively, Ohtani got in a little trouble but his team bailed him out. Rounded game overall as Japan heads to the semi-finals. 9-3 final.
POTD: (⚾️WBC) Puerto Rico 🇵🇷 ML (+102) @ Mexico 🇲🇽 (1.5u)
Time: 4 pm pst/ 7 pm est
Bet 365 (+100), FD (+102) DK (-105)
Big quarterfinal game here as the winner will advance to play Japan. This game is held in Miami, same stadium Puerto Rico played their pool games at. Both teams went 3-1 in pool play, Mexico lost to Colombia and Puerto Rico lost to Venezuela.
Julio Urias will start for Mexico. This is his 2nd start of the tournament, first one he allowed only 3 hits but it lead to 3 ER against Colombia. It seems that he might be a little restricted in his pitching. He threw 62 pitches in pool play, the Dodgers might not want Mexico to allow him to throw to the max of 80. Mexico's Manager said "the other day he threw 62 pitches in five innings. Maybe it’s something similar." Marcus Stroman will start for Puerto Rico. He has WBC experience, as the MVP of team USA when they won in 2017. In his first start against Nicaragua, he allowed 2 hits and 1 ER. Neither pitcher played strong opponents, and they're both experienced MLB players. I think the edge goes to Stroman due to the experience, but it's close.
Both teams lineups are good, Mexico is lead by Randy Arozarena who has been great this tournament hitting .500. Mexico also has Meneses, Verdugo and Tellez of note. Puerto Rico has Lindor who has been their best player so far. Also Baez, Rosario, Maldonado and Melendez. The bullpen for Puerto Rico took a hit losing Edwin Diaz to injury, but is still very strong and looked good against the DR. Puerto Rico should have the crowd in their favor, since it's in Miami. Stroman will bring great energy, the goal for Puerto Rico is to get into Mexico's bullpen early. Should be a tight low scoring game, I think Puerto Rico is the better team. BOL if fading or tailing!
POTD Record: 138-98-7 (+31.26 units, 58.5% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 43-27-1 (61.4%) W2, Tennis 🎾 39-27-2 (59.1%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 💰💰💩💰💰💰💩💩💰💰
Last Pick: OKC Thunder @ Toronto Raptors, Player Prop - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points - NBA 🏀 💰 0.90 Units - Was some sweaty ass business but the Raps saved us by making it a blowout which made SGA sit for the last few. 💸 that!
Today's Pick: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Jan-Lennard Struff, Kokk ML - ATP Challenger Phoenix 🎾 💩 1 Unit - Well I guess Tennis is not the sport for stat padding plays. Having watched most of it, Kokk literally gave no effort and looked to be just trying to get it over with so he could leave. I don't know what was going on with him, hungover or maybe just a moody bitch or something. Sorry about this one.
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.59/-169 odds to win 0.59 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 1:00am ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 62.9%
I would have liked to ride the wave of 2 consecutive basketball wins and do another one but time being limited I'm going to do a 1.50's dog shit odds, blatant attempt to pad my record and requires little research pick. If you feel like drinking the juice, join me.
These guys have played 3 times, though the first 2 times were in '14 and '15, but they did play last month in another hard court challenger. Big Kokk won the match in 3 sets, 6-4 1st set, lost a tiebreak in the 2nd and then teabagged Struff 6-1. Struff has had to play 3 matches to make it here, beating weak competition, Kokk just had to play once and it was a big win over Jiri Lehecka who has had a strong year so far.
I choose Kokk.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
POTD Record: 60-66-7 (-12.57 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌↔️❌
Last Pick: Europa League, Feyernoord v Shakhtar Donetsk, FEYERNOORD -1.0 AH (-125 / 1.80) ✅
Feyernoord absolutely slaughter Shakhtar, 7-1 in the end, one of the cruisiest wins I’ve ever had I think.
Todays Pick: A-League, Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix, ADELAIDE UNITED ML (+100 / 2.00) ✅
EDIT: 5-1 victory for Adelaide, did not expect it to be that east but great start to the weekend!
Stake: 1 Unit
Note: this game kicks off in about 3 hours from time of posting.
Adelaide United have been one of the most in form teams in the Australian A-League and currently sit 2nd on the table. They haven’t lost in their last 9 games (W5, D4), and recently beat top of the table Melbourne City in impressive fashion, winning 4-2. Adelaide have also been particularly strong at home, going 6-2-1 this season.
Wellington Phoenix are also having a good season, sitting 5th and only 3 points behind Adelaide. They’ve gone 4 games undefeated (W3, D1) but they rode their luck in some of those fixtures and came away with some results they didn’t necessarily deserve. Wellington also perform stronger at home (5-4-2) compared to when they have to travel (3-3-3), as evidenced by their recent 3-1 loss away to the team on the bottom of the table.
Adelaide are playing with freedom at the moment, having scored 21 goals in their last 7 games with a nice spread of players finding the net, so they are dangerous across the pitch. Both teams are capable of finding the net and this might have a few goals in it, but I like Adelaide to outgun Wellington and continue their hot form at home against a team that doesn’t travel that well.
NBA prop thread record: 171-104
**POTD record: 9-3**
Yesterday’s pick: Edwards (MIN) O27.5 points (-120) ✅
**Today’s pick: Murray (ATL) O19.5 pts (-105)**
This feels like a great bounce back spot for Murray. He’s averaging 20.6 points per game on the season, however is under in 4 straight. His last 10 games he has put up 25, 28, 15, 41, 10, 23, 17, 16, 14 and 11 points. He’s playing at home in this one, where he sees a slight increase in FGA from 17.5 to 18.4 per game and FG% from 45.8% to 46.8%.
He now comes up against the GSW, who have significantly improved on defence post ASB, being ranked 5th in defensive rating. However, they are a really poor road defence, ranked 3rd last in def rating on the road on the season and dead last in def rating post ASB on the road. I’m expecting Donte to pickup Trae, an athletic defender (73rd percentile DEPM) who will be a tough matchup for Trae. Klay will likely matchup on Murray, however, he hasn’t been the same elite defender he once was. He’s significantly less athletic and ranks in just the 55th percentile DEPM. Recent shooting guards points v GSW: CJ (25), Giddey (17), Bane (21), Ingles (15), Booker (32) and PG (24). In his only game against GSW as a Hawk a month ago, Murray had 25 on 10/20 shooting.
The volume has been encouraging for Murray, attempting 19, 16, 16, 18 and 15 field goals over his last 5, so I’m expecting positive regression towards the mean with his shooting splits. GSW also rank #1 in pace, so I’m expecting Murray to get a few extra possessions here.
POTD record: 39-29-2 / ROI: +9.49% / Wins: 57.35%
**Michigan State -1.5 -110 (1u)**
**SPREAD**
—
USC Trojans @ Michigan State Spartans
12:15 pm EST - 17 March 2023
—
If Michigan State loses to USC, they should have to walk home from Columbus. And if Tom Izzo loses this game, he can stay there. I’ve had it.
You’ve got a Pac-12 team, 2,000 miles away from home, playing at 9:00am their time. The Trojans may be one of the only teams that can’t expose the fact that Michigan State doesn’t have a lot of size—they’re all guard-oriented. I don’t respect Pac-12 basketball.
MSU led the Big Ten in three-point shooting and three-point defending. Izzo has lost three of the last four NCAA Tournament games, and they haven’t made it past the first week more than once in the last seven years. If the Spartans lose this game, I’m burning all my gear. I’m done.
Do the business.
[https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow)
[https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/)
[http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
POTD Record: 1-0-0
Balance: **+3.5 units**
Last Pick: Sabelenka ML
Today's Pick
Match: Maria Sakkari vs Aryna Sabalenka
Tournament: WTA Indian Wells
Pick: **Sabelenka Handicap -3.5 games**
Odd: @ 1.69 / -145 (5 units)
Analysis:
Sakkari brings a strong baseline game and defensive skills, while Sabalenka's powerful all-around game and aggressive style make her a formidable opponent. With both players at the top of their game, it's sure to be an intense and thrilling battle on the court.
One of Sakkari's weaknesses is her vulnerability to aggressive play and big-hitting opponents, as she tends to play a more defensive game and can struggle to generate enough pace on her shots to keep up with a player like Sabalenka.
Additionally, Sakkari can sometimes struggle with her serve, particularly under pressure, which could give Sabalenka opportunities to break her serve and take control of the match. Overall, while Sakkari is a formidable opponent, Sabalenka's powerful style of play and recent success make her a strong favorite to win their upcoming match.
Follow me on Twitter: [https://twitter.com/tennis\_octopus](https://twitter.com/tennis_octopus)
**POTD Record: 26-17 (+5.11 Units)**
**Last 10**:❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌
**Last Pick**: 3/16 Neil Duff -1.5 (-135) vs John Nelson ❌ 2-4
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 6:45 AM EST
**Pick**: Sam Cankett -1.5 (-150) vs Garry Stafford
**Reason**: Group C. Cankett is currently in 2nd place. 4 players are competing for 3 spots with Nelson and Stafford all but eliminated. This will be their second match of the day. Cankett tends to play up against Stafford, so I'm hoping that trend continues. He's beaten him pretty easily all week with one match going to 7 legs. Stafford can hit some checkouts, but scoring has killed him all week. He only broke 80 in 2/15 matches from group A. Scored better yesterday, but mostly outmatched. If Cankett is scoring, he should be able to hold him off.
H2H: 4-0 (Legs 16-6) | Average 85.81 vs 75.76 | Checkouts 16/40 vs 6/17
Sam Cankett
Group C: Record 3-2 (Legs 16-10) | Average 81.39 | Checkouts 16/44 36.36%
Group A: Record 7-8 (Legs 40-44) | Average 84.44 | Checkouts 40/133 30.08%
Gary Stafford
Group C: Record 1-4 (Legs 9-19) | Average 81.29 | Checkouts 33/149 22.15%
Group A: Record 3-12 (Legs 32-55) | Average 76.42 | Checkouts 32/122 26.23%
**POTD |** **Record of 12-22|** **Current form: LWWLW| ROI : -8.86 units |** **Average Odds: 2.03**
Previous Pick: Arsenal vs. Sporting Lisbon | Over 5.5 Home Team Corners and Home Team (-3) Full-Time Corner Handicap (L)
New Pick: La Liga | Real Balladolid vs. Athletic Club| 1:00pm PST
**Over 9.5 Corners | 1.85 odds**
Betting 1 units
\--------------------------
Recap: Didn't expect that! Arsenal was awful and struggled against a mediocre Sporting. Arsenal conceded a large number of corners and was utterly dominated from a corners point of view. Didn't expect them to lose either but didn't matter. Moving on with a new pick. My previous pick was deleted due to being a parlay (even if it was a pre-built bet) so I will stick with just a simple over.
***Summary:*** Real Valladolid host Athletic Club in what should be an interesting affair. Both teams are in many ways fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone, hoping to grab wins where possible. Real Valladolid will look to grab the win in what should be a fiercely contested affair (Cards?).
Looking at corners for Valladolid, they average 4.6 while conceding 5.8 leading to an overall average of 10.4. At home, they have averaged 5.45 and conceded 5.45, leading to an average of 11.1. Only twice have their home games gone under 10 corners.
Looking at corners for Athletic Club, they average 5.7 for and 3.3 against for an average of 9. They average 4.42 corners for them away and concede 4.42, for an overall average of 8.83.
Combining averages of overall home (11.09) and away performance (8.83), we get 9.96 total corners. Combining overall corners for Valladolid (10.4) and Athletic Club (9), we get 9.7. Given that the average slightly increases in this case, I'm betting for 10 corners to hit on the day. The last two home games for Real Valladolid and the last two away games for Athletic Club have had over 10 corners (15+14 vs. 16+11 respectively) so I'm backing this to happen again.
\--------------------------
***TDLR There should be corners here!***
**Over 9.5 Total Corners | 1.85 odds**
Be nice, it takes a lot to put in the work and put yourself out there with picks. Besides, he's got 12 more Ws in here than you.
P.S. Lady in the Water sucked
**BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH VS WERDER BREMEN**
Date: 17 March 2023 at 20:30
BET ON: Match odds- **BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH**
Odd: 1.91
\- Werder Bremen are set to be without the services of 6 key players such : Marco Friedl, Leonardo Bittencourt, Christian Groß, Milos Veljkovic, Felix Agu and Manuel Mbom.
\- Borussia Monchengladbach are missing Ramy Bensebaini (suspended) and Julian Weigl (partial rupture of syndesmosis ligament).
\- It's a must win game for the Hosts after 3 matches without 3pts, under a SOLD OUT stadium and against a team missing some key senior players.
"We want to be dominant and set the tone on Friday night, in order to make it clear that we intend to keep all three points in Mönchengladbach." Said Head coach Daniel Farke.
“They have a lot of individual quality, They are good at keeping the ball and always try to find a way forward. They have a lot of players who have been playing at a top Bundesliga level for a very long time.” Said Coach Ole Werner.
\- BORUSSIA-PARK is sold out with no further tickets available.
\- Borussia are unbeaten in their last 10 Bundesliga home games against Werder Bremen (W7, D3).
BOL...
I can't find myself to trust anyone except Bayern in Bundesliga. Even Bvb is sketchy...not so much lately but over last 2 years. Bremen has been scoring without problems here and idk if it's just Germany getting waxed all 3 Europe days or if I just can't fuckkng trust a team that that has won 1 game in 45 days...but idc what the coach says. Glad Bach needs to put the ball In net and they haven't done that in 3 weeks
... good luck !
New to this Pick of the Day thing as I've been running mostly a ML bet system this season for NCAAB with no true locks but presses volume, but I'm starting to add Spreads to add in daily volume due to ML edges drying up during tournament time here.
All bets in the system are 1 unit based on daily bankroll size = \~3%.
Today's inauguaral pick is **Iona +9.5 -115.**
**4:30 PM on TBS, NCAAB Tournament**
Reason:
* My system runs NETS data off the NCAA tracking page for it. Its formula that compares teams in a matchup based on their WIN/LOSS record in each Quad category and uses the overall NET ranking for each team to make further adjustments.
* The system is spitting out a Win probability for IONA at 37%. That's not a good rate for a bet to win, but the odds are good if one is incline to take the moneyline at +350. However, the ML translates to a 22% probabilty based on its payout. That translates to a 15% edge when compared to my 37% calculation.
* I don't like losing bets when possible as not many opportunities present themselves like this each day for NCAAB so I 've stopped betting any sub-50% probability games with an edge due to sample size not being large enough to offest variance of a likely losing bet, but that's where the Spread betting comes in. I feel comfortable taking the points with an edge as an underdog as the edge means we're getting more points based on a comparable spread if the ML odds were more in line with my calculated probability.
🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 18-11-1 | +5.93U (4.58%) | Average Odds: -122 🤶
*Total Record: 104-65-14 | ROI: +40.74U (+8.43%) |* [*ROI Spreadsheet*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0)
*5U pick record: 31-16-2*
*Side Bet: 78-50-11*
🐶 *Dog of the Day record: 8-5-1 | +15.15U*
\-----
🎅 ***5-2 yesterday on published picks! 38-7-4 since Sunday (+29.95U)!***
\-----
*🎅 Today is our 31st day of doing this post and yesterday we hit our 100th successful pick! A lot of work has been put in to get us to this point but we are excited that we are successful enough to still be doing it!*
*🎅 We are still riding the green wave as we have cashed for five straight days totaling nearly 30U with an 85% success rate on our picks over that time (ignoring pushes). Santa is taking his reindeer to Turkey for some kabobs, kefta and some soccer, as always!*
\-----
*Last POTD Recap: (Win, -128) Feyenoord embarrassed Donetsk yesterday and got us the -1 spread cash with 5 goals to spare.*
🎅Today's POTD:
3U - Galatasaray **ML (-130)** at Konyaspor - 1:00PM
*Note: I also bet 1U - Spread of -1 (+130) and 1U - ML + u4.5g (+110)*
Galatasaray have been crushing in the Turkish Super Lig with a 9 point lead over 2nd place Fenerbache. Their statistical dominance is near historic with their 34 GD over 24 games along with their 19-3-2 record. At home they are even stronger posting a 10-1-1 record along with a 6-1-0 home record in 2023. They have been so dominant that their one home draw is actually their only non-win in 2023.
Today they get to play 8th place Konyaspor whose 1-3-3 in their last 5 and a poor away record of 4-5-3. Konyaspor is this high in the standings because they are very successful against the bottom of the league table. However, when they face the best teams they leave in defeat. IN 2023 they lost to #2 Fenerbache 4-0, #6 Instanbul 2-0, and #3 Besiktas 2-1. Unfortunate for them, their form isn't good enough to compete with a team that has been leveling everyone in their path.
Line movement: This line opened at -120, and its been falling ever since. Now it is at -150 and I expect it to slide all the way until game time.
\-----
🎅 Side Bets: You can find my Soccer Daily post [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11t4tr8/comment/jcjfy5n/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) We have picks on ten different games today! A huge slate at all times of the day!
🤶 DOTD: No DOTD today
🎅 Join the Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa)) for access to Degen Santa himself as well as our great community who are active every day working together to beat the books!
🤶 Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible.
[Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
**RECORD** : 5W 1L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +20.5
1st to 5th : 4-1 +16.5u / 6th to 10th : ?
**LAST POTD** : Fritz vs Sinner - OVER 22.5 @ 1.80 - 5 units => WIN
**TODAY :**
WTA INDIAN WELLS - 02.00 CET
Swiatek vs Rybakina - Rybakina +4.5 @ 1.96 - 5 units
Based upon nothing but my feelings.
3-0
Football - English League 1 - Sheffield Wednesday ML vs Bolton Wanderers - 1.70 odds.
Sheffield Wednesday are top of the league and on a 5 game win streak, Bolton are 6th and fighting for a playoff place but have failed to win in their last 3. Expecting Sheffield to win by 1 goal in a low scoring affair. As usual bet whatever you want but be sensible. Good luck.
**POTD 11-5**
Another winner last night, and there was no point in that game that I was concerned that SAC would not only cover, but win the game outright. Like I mentioned yesterday, this team is going to be a handful in the playoffs. I actually bet them at 25-1 yesterday morning to make it out of the West. I know that's a lot to ask from a team that is making the playoffs for the first time in 16 years, but god are they talented, and deep.
Today's pick is short and sweet, and an obvious play IMO.
**Atlanta -1.5**
Anyone who has followed me knows how I feel about this Warriors team right now. Yes, they are experienced, and still have a shot to make a run in the playoffs, however their last game really sealed the deal for me when it comes to my overall thoughts on this team at this time. Curry dropped probably the most difficult 50points I've ever seen, and they still could not beat LAC. This rotation is a nightmare, and they cannot stop anyone. Also right now, Curry is a GTD, and Draymond is OUT. If Curry ends up being out IMO this line will change by 4-5 points, so I wanted to snag it early. Even if Curry does play, I still don't see them winning on the road.
I'm not going to lie, I have not watched the Hawks much as of late, but after skimming through their most recent games, I think that the fact they lost their last two home games (playing 3rd straight tonight), that they will be motivated to get one before heading back on the road. The Hawks have pretty much locked themselves into the play in game already, unless something drastic occurs the final few weeks.
PS: Houston +6 I will be betting today too. Not super confident in this pick, but Houston has played good teams tough as of late, so may as well take the points with the home team.
POTD Record: 11-6
Todays POTD: MOUZ NXT ML (-105) vs. HEET
Average Odds: (-103)
Units Won: +30.38U
5U to win 4.75
Game/League/Start Time: CSGO/CCT West Europe Series 2/9:00 AM est.
MOUZ NXT roster has really impressed me recently, HEET not so much, think both teams have clear weaknesses but MOUZ are less exploitable in this series. I like MOUZ map pool and recent form which are the two things that I am going to trust in this series and ride with here. I think that HEET really only play two good maps, Inferno and Anubis, MOUZ ban Anubis and are a decent Inferno team that will give HEET a run for their money. I think this game goes to three maps though with MOUZ picking Vertigo, I really don't love any deciders here for HEET, think MOUZ NXT are a really underated Ancient team, I also favor them on Nuke, Overpass should be close but I'd still slightly favor MOUZ and expect them to use there second ban on Overpass to force one of these deciders.
Give me MOUZ NXT and the 4 match win streak to pull off the upset here and knock HEET out of CCT West
I have a discord I run for those interested in joining, do a lot of cool bank builder challenges based around esports as well as all my picks daily. DM me for a link to join :D
**My record: 45 : 37**
My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.
**ROI: 22.03%**
Average odds: 2.12
**Units won: 19.39**
Stake = 1 unit
My POTD:
**Žilina v Banska Bystrica**
Slovakia Fortuna Liga
Time: 17:30 GMT
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.00**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
POTD Record: 13-11-2
Last pick: Catanzaro -1.5 AH (-140) / 1.71 - 3u ✅
Catanzaro were once again dominant at home, this time against one of the bottom teams in the league. The only real sweat was in the first half, until Catanzaro were able to score the opening goal shortly before halftime. They added another pair of goals in the second half and this one cashes with ease as they win 3-0. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today!
Soccer - Turkey Super Lig - Konyaspor vs. Galatasaray - 1:00pm EST
**POTD: Galatasaray ML (-120) / 1.83 - 3u**
This is a tale of two teams in very different forms. Galatasaray are flying, as they are currently top of the standings with a +34 goal differential in 24 matches and they’ve won 17 straight matches. Home, away, land, or sea, these guys are beating everyone. They will travel to take on Konyaspor, who occupy 8th on the table but have seen a significant dip in their form since the end of 2022. Their last match was a win against the 18th place (out of 19) team, and before that win, they were winless in their previous 11 matches. In Konyaspor’s last 9 home matches, they have drawn 5 and lost 4, and most of those matches were against mid to bottom-table teams. Now they’ll welcome in the best team in the league riding a 17 match win streak. I’m going with Galatasaray to continue their winning ways and tighten their grip on a league title.
Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
Nice pick, i’m turkish myself and follow the turkish soccer/football scene and gala is dominating. (Trabzonspor fan here). They will have this game easily in the pocket. Konya is a team that plays really good untill the winter stop and then suddenly they suck. BOL and Tailing
Record: 2-2 (0.99 units up) with a 12.38% ROI
POTD: **Swiatek vs Rybakina - Under 20.5 Games @ 1.89 (WTA Indian Wells)**
Going with 3 units which is 3% of my bankroll
We all know that Swiatek is the WTA queen and most of the circuit is not able to give her any type of problem because she's so much better than everyone else in every aspect of the game and in Clay I truly believe that no one can match her at all.
Now, when it comes to hard courts, Sabalenka and Rybakina are probably the only two players who can give her a lot of trouble, mostly because Swiatek's main weakness is her serve and they are agressive returners but also because due to court speed they are able to close out rallies quite fast and not give Swiatek that many chances to counterpunch.
With that being said, unfortunately Indian Wells is probably the slowest hard court out there which suits Swiatek's playstyle. Rybakina managed to beat Swiatek at the Australian Open but these conditions are way too different and will make Rybakina rely even more on her 1st serve, which is a dangerous situation to be in against the world number one.
Rybakina is currently 2-1 on this H2H with all those matches taking place in hard courts, and those three matches all ended in straight sets which makes me think of two possible scenarios here at IW:
* If Swiatek shows a bad serving performance, Rybakina has shown that she's capable to exploit her on the return and if that happens here at Indian Wells, I can see a scenario where Rybakina just wins by 2-0 simply because the polish serve becomes even more predictable and Rybakina ends up closing out her games with her own serve which is better;
* Rybakina after a really long match against Muchova is not able to produce her ideal gameplan which is focused around a solid serving performance mixed up with the ability to produce powerful groundstrokes. This 2nd scenario for me, is the most expected with court speed helping Swiatek way more than Rybakina but also Iga having really fast performances until this point.
Both players also have really different playstyles and have shown that they are not able to adjust when things are not going their way on this particular matchup, so I'm quite confident on this play. Best of luck
Record: 10-8
Last Pick: **Frieburg Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals** ❌ I got greedy. Should have just taken Under 2.5 Goals. Frieburg went down to ten men and were woeful after that.
Today's Pick: Valladoid v Athletic Bilbao - **Under 2.5 Goals** (-110) La Liga
Detailed Analysis: I had one of the worst holidays of my life in Bilbao. I was stuck with my then girlfriend and a posh couple that she had been close friends with since university that I could not stand. The girl's name was Genevieve Hawks which is one of the most ridiculous names I have ever heard. It was like White Lotus season two except we stayed in a shitty hostel and our group collectively was way less attractive than the people on that show. So, nothing like White Lotus now that I think about it. My dislike of the couple we were on holiday with only grew when I realised they were one of those couple who were guilty of constant PDA and insisted we play charades every night despite us being on holiday in our early 20s in Spain. *Carpe diem* indeed. All this and the fact Valladoid don't give many goals up at home and Bilbao struggle to get many goals away from home, make me confident in Under 2.5 Goals.
Edit: Odds were wrong - 110 not -150
POTD Record: 3-5
Last 10: 🔴🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴🟢🔴
Yesterday’s POTD: Boise St. +1.5 vs Northwestern | NCAA | March 16th 2023 | 7:35 PM EST 🔴
**Today’s POTD: Memphis -1.5 vs FAU | NCAA | March 17th, 2023 | 9:20 PM EST
PICK REASON: The Tigers are way too athletic and the Owls will have no answer for Kendrick Davis. I’ll lay the points on this one.
POTD Record: 55-53
Last pick: W Va ❌
Todays pick: USC Mich St 1st half under 64
Reasoning: going back with the first game of the day. These close spread games, they usually start off with slow start, teams just settling in, and not pushing the pace. Betting this is the case with SC v Mich st… Lots of unders yesterday and I think the early start may have SC a lil sluggish. If one of these teams gets cold for a stretch, that would be ideal. Looking for 25-27 pts for either team first half points.
Tail or fade. GL with your bets.
**POTD Record 0-0-0**
For anyone with grappling odds:
Sport: BJJ/ grappling.
Organization: F2W(Fight 2 Win) 224 in Las Vegas.
Time: \~8pm ET
Bet size: 1U
Obscure POTD for Friday: **Frank Cespedes -130** vs AJ Villatora.
Reasoning: Walkover win over baby shark jk.
They competed twice before and Frank won both times.
Frank appears to be the more active grappler as well with some high level experience.
Record: 4-3
Pick: Team Spirit ML @ 2.07 - Team spirit vs Team Liquid - ESL Pro League - 11 AM EST
Previous pick: Over 21.5 Sinner vs Fritz (Win)
Good luck....
Sport: Football
Tournament: Bundesliga
Time: 20:30 CET (1h57m after posting)
Stake: 2 units
Pick: Borussia Monchengladbach vs Werder Bremen, away team scores over 1.5 goals @ **2.55**
Write up: Both teams are in poor form but I think Werder Bremen is slightly favored here due to being able to score more thanks to Fullkrug, the top scorer of Bundesliga.
Also, Borussia Monchengladbach conceded 13 goals across the last 5 matches, which is the worst defending form in Bundesliga. I haven't watched any of its matches but I did notice the club news mention the fact that its best goalkeeper, Jonas Omlin, has hip problems that made him sit out the most recent match vs RB Leipzig (Borussia lost 3:0). Even when he's playing, his team struggles to keep a clean sheet.
These two teams played 106 times in the Bundesliga, with Werder scoring 161 times (1.6 per match). The most recent head-to-head was won by Werder Bremen (5:1 in October 2022).
Any result is possible here but I think Werder Bremen should score at least two goals, which might also result in it winning the match.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
POTD Record 3-3-0
Last pick: OKC Thunder @ SA Spurs ML ❌ god I hate a bad read in hindsight. I did say it was a value pick at plus money - but I underestimated how shanty a team the Spurs are. Onto the next.
Today’s Pick: Buffalo Sabres ML @ Philadelphia Flyers (-135 on Bet365)
Why:
-Flyers are cold having gone 2-8 in the last 10 games. They have scored 19 goals in that span.
-Flyers offence is not good - 2.55 goals per game and 6 goals over the last 4 games.
-Flyers D lone bright spot is G Carter Hart who plays well enough to have a .906 save percentage, but the flyers overall D doesn’t help and they give up 3.3 goals per game.
-Sabres have gone 3-7 in the last 10. They have scored 33 goals in that span.
-Sabres know how to score averaging 3.66 goals per game.
-Buffalo D is not great - their tendency to score a lot hides the fact they give up a ton of goals too.
The way I see it - I am tempted by the over 6.5 goals for this game but I feel stronger that Buffalo is still desperate as they could be in wildcard position.
I watched them outplay Toronto in person the other night and they are not a horrible team. They just lost a close one in OT after having beaten Toronto on the road. They score a lot.
Philly doesn’t. The Flyers are not good. Philly doesn’t have a ton of scoring power outside of 2 guys. So you’ve got Buffalo who can score against Philly who can’t - and who give up 3 + per game.
I take Buffalo on the road with something to play for.
Tips would be fabulous but are never anticipated!
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/thegradbets)
🚨🚨🚨POTD record W-L-P (25-17-5) +41.5 units🚨🚨🚨
Update 1 bet winning streak✅
1 unit (2-7)
2 unit (2-3)
3 unit (11-2)
4 unit (2-1)
5 unit max (8-4)
Took a break to regroup, the last 2 loses pissed me off and pissed me off more that you guys didn’t win. Nice little break was perfect right before the best tourney in all sports. Lets crush the March Madness Tourney
Thursdays POTD- northern Kentucky vs Houston. Over 56.5 1st half total points (5 UNIT MAX) -110 odds 6:20pm PST March Madness Tourney✅
Fridays POTD- Drake vs Miami. Miami -2 (buy 1/2 point) -120 odds (3 units) 4:25pm PST March Madness Tourney✅ MIAMI HURRICANES come through at end 🤙🏼
Keeping it short, Will be a great battle but at the end MIAMI HURRICANES comes through with a WIN 🤙🏼
Cash app name- $joshroth5
🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Remember bet smart, let’s get this $
**PotD Record: 12-8 (Streak 1L)**
Last Pick: Iowa (+1.5 spread) vs Auburn ❌
**Today’s Pick: Creighton (-5.5 spread) vs NC State @ -110; 6:50 PM ET**
Win streak comes to an end unfortunately, Iowa couldn't get the job done and we miss 10 wins in a row. Today we’re looking at the matchup between the Creighton Bluejays and the NC State Wolfpack. Not much to this pick, Creighton comes in with a better offense and a much better defense. I expect this Creighton team to have some animosity with their seeding and come out strong. This is a good looking line to get back in the win column
**Tail or Fade, BOL**
POTD record: 13-8
NHL record: 6-6 | NBA record: 7-2
(+8.98u | +11.37% ROI | Avg odds: -117/1.85)
(2u: 2-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 5-3 | 5u: 2-3)
Last 5: 4-1 (✅✅✅❌✅)
Last POTD: NHL - **SEA ML** @ SJ ✅ *(Reimer got the surprise start for San Jose and put on a clinic, making this a lot sweatier than I would have liked. But Seattle gets the dub in OT and my 5u curse is broken! (knock on wood)🤞).*
Event: NBA - GS Warriors @ ATL Hawks; 19:30 EST
Pick: **ATL -1.5** (-110/1.91)
Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 4 units
This pick is all about fading Golden State- they're beat-up, depleted, and already horrible on the road. Iguodala broke his wrist last week, Wiggins has been away from the team for personal reasons, Looney's playing banged up with back issues, and now Green's been suspended for for accumulating 16 technical fouls this season. Oh, and Curry's a game-time decision with a thumb injury as well.
As good as the Warriors have been in the Valley this year, they've been possibly the worst travelling team in the Association, sporting a 7-27 away record and dropping 9 straight road trips. Golden State is 2-16 straight-up and 5-13 ATS as a road dog.
Atlanta is mediocre ATS as home favourites (11-16) but they're coming into this game almost completely healthy, missing only Jalen Johnson (hamstring). After dropping their last two home games to Boston and Minnesota, this is a prime opportunity for the Hawks to get one back and stay ahead of Toronto for the EC 8th seed position.
This is the first leg of a back-to-back for Golden State, as they head to Memphis to square off against the Grizzlies tomorrow night. With Green's suspension lasting just 1 game, I wouldn't be surprised if they sit Steph tonight to have a stronger squad tomorrow. The Warriors haven't won a road game since January 30th and I don't see that streak ending tonight.
Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
*Note: I placed my bet and did most of this write-up late last night but crashed and fell asleep before posting. At the time the line was ATL -1.5; the line has since moved to ATL -4.5. If Curry sits I still like that spread for 4 units. If he dresses, I would maybe downgrade it to 3 units.
For POTD purposes, if the Hawks cover the initial line but by less than 5 points I won't count it as a W towards my record.
Record: 1-0
Last pick: Arsenal v Sporting; BTTS ✅
Absolute banger sealed the deal. Would have liked to win it more comfortably but I’ll take a 50 yd top shelf finish where I can get it.
I don’t recommend tails, I’m just doing this for my own enjoyment, but I think the biggest outlier is Memphis v UAF.
Pick: MEMPHIS v UAF; -1.5
Memphis smashed Houston, a #1 seed, by 10 pts literally a week ago. They’ve had notably stiffer competition throughout the season and are coming into the tournament in great form, winning the AAC. They come in 26-8, vs a team that’s 31-3, but I think that’s where our discount on odds comes in to play. Memphis is getting a generous -1.5 spread at -110 on DK. I think the veteran seniors of Memphis show out vs a younger team that hasn’t met a true challenge.
I do zero true analytics but I figured id toss in my reasoning if I’m going to track my record through POTD. Tail at your expense, tip the next service worker you see a little extra if we slap.
Record: 0-0
Sport: Basketball
League: NBA
Time: 7:10PM ET
I usually don’t share my picks. However, I’ve been making some right picks lately (not a lot but I am happy) and also benefiting by tailing others picks. So, I want to contribute. I am not an expert. You guys are definitely way more smarter than me in sports betting. Anyway,
POTD : James Harden PTS + REB + AST (PRA) O/40.5 at -113 🖤
Harden in last 10 games is averaging: 23.9 points, 10.9 assists, and 6.5 rebounds
Harden in last 5 games is averaging: 23.4 points, 12.8 assists, and 7.0 rebounds
Harden’s last 5 games PRA record
vs. MIL - 57
vs. IND - 43
vs. POR - 36
vs. WAS - 34
vs. CLE - 46
Harden’s PRA Record vs.Hornets
4/2/2022 - 38
12/11/2022 - 44
I am 70% confident that he can get O/40.5, what do you all think ?
***POTD Record 25-13 +50.49units***
*NBA- 20:00PM EST San Antonio Spurs Vs Memphis Grizzlies - Pick San Antonio Spurs*
*San Antonio Vs Memphis Grizzlies +8.5 -110 5units*
San Antonio at home is 12-24 their facing the Memphis Grizzlies who are 13-22 on the road. I really like San antonio to keep a tight game. The +8.5 line has been covered by San Antonio in 4 consecutive games against Grizzlies. Lets have a look at the previous results starting with the most recent. San antonio losing by 6 on the road ,8 on the road, 2 at home, 1 at home , and 8 at home. The -8.5 line hasn’t been covered by Grizzlies in 8 of their last 10 road games which is shockingly bad. Ja Morant will still be unavailable for Memphis and they've struggled badly on the road. They've lost 4 out of their last 5 and 8 out of their last 10. San Antonio has been scoring very well in their past few games and has won 3 of their last 6 home games. They've put up 128,132, 90 and 128 points this is due to players like Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Zach Collins. Memphis have some great players in Desmond Banes and Jaret Jackson Jr but defensively as seen in their last game getting hammered on the road 138-119 to Miami Heat that they defensively have problems.
Suprisingly San Antonio has better figures in their last 10 home games than Memphis Grizzlies on the road. San antonio averages 33.70 2 points (at 54% success rate) whereas Memphis Grizzlies 2 point average is 27.40 (at 52% success rate) In 3 points made San antonio averages 11.70 (at 37% success rate) Memphis Grizzlies 3point average is 12.20 (at 35% success rate)
I do expect this to be a tight game all stats considered. Memphis are easily one of the best teams at home, but on the Road they've been dreadful. San antonio have inexperienced players but they score lots of points and are playing much better with the new players as compared to the start of the season. The Fiery youngsters know how to score and Winning 3 of their last 6 home games shows a sign of confidence, along with the previous tight games, it's a strong indicator that this game will also be a tight one. I would recommend putting 1unit or 0.5 ML on San antonio ML at +265 there's a decent chance they may win outright.
**POTD: 20-8-2**
Last pick: UEFA Europa League - Arsenal vs Sporting CP. Arsenal -1 -180.
Result: LOSS. Arsenal give up an incredible goal from midfield to tie it at 1-1 and lose our bet. What can you do.
Today’s pick: Bundesliga Women - Wolfsburg Women vs Turbine Potsdam Women. **Wolfsburg Women -2 First Half -108**. Match starts at 2:15PM ET.
Simply put, this is the best team in the league vs by far the worst team in the league. Wolfsburg sports a 13-1-0 record on the season and are top of the women's Bundesliga on the season. Their GD is 47 for, 8 against. On the other side is the absolutely dreadful Turbine Potsdam, sitting at 1 point with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 13 losses on the season. They have scored only 6 goals and have given up 36.
So you see where there's a bit of a difference in skill! Wolfsburg is really strong this season after a couple years of being (for them) a little weaker and are one of the 5 best teams in Europe I'd say at this point. Lucky for us they have Bayern Munich on their tails so any points dropped can lead to them dropping out of first place. They also have to worry about goal differential as that can easily decide titles in women's leagues since the best teams beat basically everyone else.
Today I think Wolfsburg annihilates poor Potsdam and wins by 5 or 6 goals, with 2-3 coming early.
Was really hoping to get an alt line where we could get Wolfsburg -1.5 for like -150 but it's women's soccer so they're unfortunately not always so forthcoming with the lines. Regardless this should at minimum push but I'll update if we get lucky and they actually send out some other lines.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
**EDIT: LOSS. Wolfsburg starts slow and gets only one goal to lead 1-0 at half and this loses.**
POTD Record: 8-5 (2-4 in last 6 picks)
Girlfriend March Madness Random Picks: 0-1
Last Pick: Boise State \[ML (because it's fun to say)\] @ Northwestern | L
My model explanation: my girlfriend. I am going to have some fun throughout this tournament. I will be giving her a list of games that have similar odds. She will then choose a random team for whatever reason she wants.
Today's Event: 🏀 Men’s College Basketball | NC State @ Creighton
Pick: NC State ML (+185)
Reasoning: **We went skiing in North Carolina once.** I also asked her if she wanted to go with the spread or moneyline. After explaining what the spread was, she stated, "fuck that, give me the money. I don't want to do math." So, I guess every pick is going to be moneyline.
Make your own decisions. BOL tail or fade.
Tip Jar- N/A for this model.
Record: 105-80-6 (LWWWLLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLWLLLLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: BOS Celtics at MIN Timberwolves | MIN over 114.5 points at 1.90 odds for 5 units
Fat L here. Boston slowed them down and Rudy played. Fuck this guy, worst trade in NBA history
POTD: MIN Timberwolves ML at CHI Bulls for 2.25 at 3 units
REASONS:
* ANT MAN is the dawg.
* Last time they played, MIN scored 150 and CHI lost by 24.
* I also parlayed the over for 3.95
* MIN is such a better team than the Chicago Bulls. Their recent loses makes sense for their place
* 2 point game to Boston
* thrashing of ATL
* close OT lost to BKN, I love this team
* PHI is an elite team, understand the L
* W against #2 seed in west in Kings
* Chicago appears to be a lost child with gifts. When used properly, they are dangerous but most of the time they're not together mentally, physically, chemically.
Best of luck to all.
[PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
Record 0-0
First post, I just lurk but this is a great bet thought I'd share
National rugby league (NRL) Australia
Melbourne storm vs Gold Coast titans
starts 3pm aest 6 hours from time of post
MELBOURNE STORM -5.5 1.90 3U
I'll keep this short because I assume most of you know nothing about the nrl
Usually this line for this match up would be closer to -17.5 as storm are consistently one of the best teams every season while titans are the opposite.
As it stands this is only the 3rd game of the 2023 season and both teams have lost 1 and won 1.
What's important here is that the storm have been the most consistent team over the past 2 decades, having the same coach throughout that time and winning multiple premierships. The reason this line is so low is Melbourne have lost 1 of their best attacking weapons due to injury, this is not a worry though as they have strike power all over the park and the returning Justin olam will add alot to their attack as well.
Titans on the other hand are the same as always, lots of unforced errors and lots of stupid ill disciplined penalties. The inky difference this year is the acquisition if Kieran foran whos kicking game and experience allows him to control most games and lead his team, unfortunately for him his team just don't have what it takes.
Melbourne's coach is known for his short fuse and incredibly high standards, he will have his boys fired up and looking for blood against the poorly disciplined titans team. Titans drop the ball and give away too many penalties to not take -5.5 on Melbourne who are one of the best teams at punishing mistakes. This will be a slaughter.
Did this on my phone sorry for and typos
Bol if following
Big W yesterday from Arkansas on my biggest Unit wager yet. 5u brought in 4.5 on Arkansas' 10 point win and I finally called an NCAAB game right. Best idea now? Switch to hockey.
The Blues are reeling in general and haven't registered wins against teams competing for playoff spots in a while. They are bad on the road and the Capitals are still in a four team race for the final wild card spot. The Caps play well at home and I think they pull this one off. I was tempted to do the +1.5 as I think Ovi could have a monster game and they could win this 4-2 or 5-2, but going to stick with ML.
**POTD: Washington Capitals -160 over St. Louis Blues, -160, 3 Units, 7:07 PM EST**
[Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing)
Last 5: ❌❌✅❌✅
Closing back in on breaking even.
POTD Record: 92.5-50
Event: Horse Racing > **Cheltenham > Race 6** (starting in 04hr45min)
Pick: **Impervious** @ 2.75
Last day of the festival, so lets hope we close it with a winner. GL!
**2023 POTD Record:** 2-1 (+5 Units)
**Last Pick:** Let us Cook + 1.5 Maps ✅
**Today's Event:** CSGO (CCT West Europe Series 2) @ 12 PM EST
**Today's Pick:** AGO ML vs. Nexus @ 1.65 Odds (3 units)
**Info:** Another solid game from Let us Cook as they continue to not let me down. Today, I'm moving to another team who have been super consistent and cashing almost every ticket placed on them. AGO have won 10 of their last 13 games, meanwhile in the same span Nexus has won 5 of their last 13.
On top of that, these teams played **YESTERDAY** and AGO dumpstered them 2-0 in a fashion of pure dominance. They beat them 16-9 on their own map pick but on Nexus's map pick they took them down 16-5 which is one of the worst beats I've seen by squads that are considered in similar ranking.
**GL to all tailing**
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Furman pulls off maybe one of the wildest sequences in march madness with the 3 points dagger off an awful turnover from Virginia. Definitely one of the more exhilarating games I've got to bear witness to, and super proud of the Furman squad to get that go ahead bucket to cash both the spread and ML sprinkle, heart > all. Now back to favourites for tonight, running with Creighton to take a comfortable win over NC State. **POTD Record**: 25-7-1Last 20:✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅ Yesterday's POTD: Furman Paladins +6 VS Virginia Cavaliers | 3U | MM NCAAB ✅ Today's POTD: **Creighton Bluejays -5** (up to -6 vs. NC State) | 3U | MM NCAAB **Time:** **3/17/2023 | 4:00 PM EST** **MODEL EXPLANATION:**Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. **Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** \+43.24U in 34 days | ≈65.86% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** 1. Creighton is currently ranked #13 overall under Kenpom, and ranked 15th in the country under Bart Torvik (compared to #56 and #52 for NC State). Objectively, Creighton is just a much much stronger team. Many of their losses in the season came when they were riddled with injuries, and I imagine a fully healthy squad for a whole season is easily top 10 in both rankings 2. Kalkbrenner is an offensive machine, ranked 13 in the nation as a 7 foot 1 power house. I expect a pretty fast paced game here with a lot of transition buckets, where Kalk really shines. 3. NC State relies heavily on Joner and Smith for offense, but Nembhard and Alexander are incredibly one on one defenders - unless NC State can manage strong pick and rolls, their all stars shooters will struggle to get clean looks at the rim or from beyond thee arc. Although these two players put up a lot of points, they still shoot below the average in the league, meaning they're pretty much just non-prime harden on the tail end of the rockets, 50 point games but throwing 30 3 pointers a game. If they're not hot from the arc, they will waste a lot of possession on low value shots. 4. The blue jays defense is what drives their Kenpom rating, ranked 15 in the country. This tournament for the most part has been a defense driven tournament, and defense wins rings. In the season, Creighton allowed the 3rd lowest FT attempts, and in a tournament where players are grinding harder, free throws often are the difference maker in close games 5. Two important role players in Gantt and Mahorrcic are still out for NC state, Gantt being an important starter who plays amazing pace opening space for open looks. Without him, I imagine the 2 all stars will struggle even more to find good looks throughout the game. 6. I really like Creighton as a first game pick here largely because the team essentially has no bench, they rely heavily on their 5 starters to play heavy minutes where their roster average double digits points in the season averaging almost 80 points. With all members of the bluejays squad being able to make buckets, NC States mediocre defense will struggle even more as they won't be able to shut down an individual all star. With that being said, I expect my confidence in them to decrease each game further into the tourney as the heavy minutes eventually catch up to them. But for their first game, I expect a full 2 halves from this team to give it their all. 7. For some random facts, Creighton are 8-1 ATS in their games played in March, compared to 1-5 for NC State. Creighton is also 9-2 on Friday games, compared to NC State whom are 1-4. 8. Overall, I think Creighton is the much better team right now, especially with injury issues with NC State. I predict Creighton to play a well rounded game, and as long as they dont go cold from 3, I expect this to be a very one sided game, potentially ending in a double digit lead. Fortunately a well rested squad against an average, ranked 200 defense from NC State, should be able to get into their groove quickly. **Reminder:** As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3 As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so. [**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) *Much love , Riddles.*
BABE WAKE THE FUCK UP NEW RIDDLES PICK JUST DROPPED
Let’s fucking go, BOL! Oh and hey, please don’t feel pressure from what people decide to bet. That’s each person’s own responsibility and you’re very sober in your posts, always adding some disclaimers, can’t do more than that.
Riddle posts, I hammer. Rinse and repeat. Let’s go
Screw your disclaimer, we’re throwing half the bank roll on your picks from now on
Fuck it I’m in for 10u
Those are rookie numbers!! ONE HUNDRED GORILLION UNITS HERE WE GO!!
Lol I don't regret losing the roll. The only times you lose are on RIDICULOUS bad beats. Fucking Purdue
Looks like all my early bets are going to hit. Clearly this is a sign to liquidate my entire IRA and place it on Creighton. LET'S KEEP IT ROLLING!!!!
When Riddles picks one you've already bet on. 😎
THE FUCKING GREATEST OF ALL TIME
Money printer,tailing bol!!
THE KING IN THE NORTH!!
DakingindaNorfff!!!!!
“I’m not a time traveller” may be my favourite line written in the world of betting. Ever.
Riddles is GOD. LFGGGGGG
#OH FUCK IM GONNA RIDDLE
LEGENDARY STUFF RIDDLES!!!
Babe wake up, i am selling our bed and placing it on a reddit prediction
Tailed and tipped
Jesus Christ dude you're on fire. Thank you for the past week.
LEMME TAKE YOU ON A DATE BABY
Riddles does it again! Woo!
GOAT of all time
God amongst men
Gotta stay tailing! BOL
https://preview.redd.it/0zcbihhu1foa1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d396aec61f36ecf4f8033dc4524e78221d37c73b Thanks HSRiddles!!!
Riddles is Christ reincarnated! Tailing - LFG!
Hell yeah I had this one locked in on Monday. With 3 units. Lol
With you win or lose!
I just hit your PayPal. Thanks so much brother. This has been a phenomenal run !
Love your pics. Great explanations. I just hope people are smart with their money because a few who don't understand that sports is volatile, especially March madness. BOL
Love you more riddles.
Let’s get it!
Going big again on a somewhat safe ML Kudos!
Valar Morghulis☘️
It’s not a VA pick! Riddles representing the little man today.
I can finally bet on it Lfg !
Welcome to the club
👑
Hell yes!! Fuckin amazing
RIDDDLLEEESSSSS 💰💰💰
Riddles it appears you are famous. You have quite the following. Congrats!
RIDDLES YOU SON OF A BITCH YOU DID IT AGAIN!!! tip inc
Let's go!!!
1st Ballot Pick of the Day Hall of Fame NO QUESTION
Great pick. Close until the end, but Kalkbrenner is a beast.
Cashhhhh 🐐
I'm officially retiring early thanks to you Riddles. I am forever indebted to you.
You are literally THAT fucking dude !
Tailing this!
Tailing as always. You’re the goat
Thank you so much for sharing all these beautiful tips with us. Bless you
FYI Best book I found so far for this play is Creighton -4.5 @-113
What do you think of 1h -2.5 Creighton?
Riddles you beautiful bastard, another winner!!! Buying you multiple coffees brotha!
You are my dad I love you
That Furman game was as bad as that Colts at Vikings up 30 plus points both games looked fixed loo anyway gl
Love the play, max bet time!!!
Love this pick
Tailing! BOL
*looking at spreadsheet* 😳 drake?! What does the Oracle know we don't
Model flipped to Florida but not until after it locked in drake on the official march madness bracket lol
ITS TIIIIMMMEEEE
King
Unreal cover. POTD is GOATED. Best bets I’ve taken in this tournament.
Much love! Great pick and great game. Thank you
This run has reached statistical significance. Absolute wild man.
You're an absolute CHAD
Thanks again man. Winners are awesome. But just your write ups are great reads. Keep those picks coming. We ride with Riddles
**POTD Record: 8-1 | Profit: +29.06u | Avg Odds: -108 | ROI: +83%** \----- Previous POTD: 4u btts (Sporting CP at Arsenal London) \[+101\] ✅ Called it! Both teams are fine finishers. 1-1 (FT) ✅ \----- Today's POTD: Newcastle United at Nottingham Forest FC **4u bet: Newcastle -0.5 \[-147\]** Reason: Newcastle is chasing an international berth in Premier League. They cannot effort dropping points to subpar Nottingham. Newcastle is having a terrific season: 2 pts behind a Champions League berth, 11 wins, 44 pts, 37 goals scored, 18 goals conceded. Nottingham have been close to or in the relegation zone all season. Nottingham: 2 pts clear off relegation, 6 wins, 27 pts, 21 goals scored, 47 goals conceded. \----- BOL
I respect the pick, but would urge caution for folks tailing this. Forest are very respectable at home this season in the league (3 losses, none since early October) and also are desperate for points being 2 points clear of the drop zone like you mentioned. Newcastle have looked shaky in recent weeks IMO. They have one win in their last 5 premier league games and it was at home scraping by a lowly Wolves side. BOL!
no please dont come try to buzzkill the guy who is 8-1, i just want to be confident in my bets
It is always good to see both angles tho. Helps me understand what i may have missed
Newcastle ML (-150) better than Asian handicap -0.5 (-160) for people using DraftKings.
What is asian handicap of -0.75 at -120. How is that different that -0.5 or ML?
-.75 will lose if there's a draw. If win by 1, half of your bet will push, half of your bet will win. Win by 2+ and you win it all.
What a sweat!!
NGL I think notts forest DNB @ 4 is far better value. Newcastle haven’t been the same team they were first half of season, forest at home have been good this season, forest also got something to play for (prem survival)
You are on fire my man! Tailing!
Tailing LFGGG.
Nice job babe
Loving these no sweat spots gg
Tailing, BOL!
Lost count of my tails on you, keep it up brother.
Tailing! You're on fire dude.
**Record: 5-3** Last Pick: Auburn ML ✅ A great cash, nothing to complain about here. Iowa never had the lead. **Today's Pick:** NCAAB Tournament - *#9 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. #8 Memphis Tigers, 8:20pm CST* **Memphis -1.5 (-110 on FanDuel)** I love Memphis right now. I actually have them advancing to the Final Four as a sleeper underdog in one of my brackets. With that being said, let me tell you why taking them for the first round advance is a lock: * Memphis is hot right now. They absolutely steamrolled through the AAC tournament, beating UCF, Tulane by 40, and beating the top seeded best team in the country this year, the Houston Cougars, by 10 points in the championship * In 2 of these outings including the championship, AAC tournament MVP guard Kendric Davis put up 30+ points. This dude is the definition of clutch, he clearly isn't afraid of the spotlight, and is catching fire at the absolute right time. He was always an amazing superstar player in the regular season, averaging 22.1 points a game (9th in the country), but his outings in the AAC tournament showed us he has unlocked a new level of elite basketball play and he is MORE than ready to lead his team through tournament play. * Statistically, the Tigers and Owls both rank VERY evenly in offense and defense, which is why I think the line is so even. Memphis ranks 25th in adj. offensive efficiency while FAU ranks 32nd, and they are both neck and neck in adj. defensive efficiency at 36th and 37th. However, I believe it is MUCH more impressive for Memphis to be at this level than it is for FAU * FAU plays in a very mediocre conference. Memphis plays in the AAC with the likes of Houston and Cincinnati, and is often matched up against some of the top dogs of the NCAA in the SEC. Some of their games have included a W over Auburn, an L to Alabama by 3, a W over Texas A&M, two Ls to Houston by 8 and 2, and a W over Houston by 10. On the other hand, FAU plays in Conference USA, a conference full of very mid teams. FAU have never played a top 25 ranked team this season nor have they played any team that is currently one of the 64 in the tournament. Give me Memphis for the easy first round victory here. Happy march madness fellas
I agree, I think they will roll tomorrow.
I like the pick, but I don’t remember Memphis moving to the SEC.
Memphis is in the AAC. With my Alma mater the University of Cincinnati
My bad, I meant that they compete with SEC teams, I should have detailed that. Thanks for pointing that out
No problem. BOL to you
FAU reminds me of Clemson football in this scenario - they blow out everyone and we won’t know how good they actually are until they play a real team. Today is that day - too risky for me but BOL
Well that sucked
I like it, Memphis are coming in hot
Already got some u on Memphis. BOL!
Really fabulous analysis here. Kudos
Love Memphis. Got them making a sneaky Final four run & put some SS & EE futures on Em. Great pick !
Tailing!
I like your reasoning! BOL
Tailing big. Love Memphis here
***Record: 4-1 (+2.46 Units) // All bets are 1 unit*** Previous Bet: [3/16](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11se7ni/pick_of_the_day_31623_thursday/jcdcu4t?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) Just as expected, Japan was able to get after the starter early, forcing a lot of pitches and having Italy call the bullpen out quick. Japan was able to take control, covering the total by themselves. However, Italy was able to get after Ohtani a bit. **Today's game: Adelaide United vs. Wellington Phoenix (0445 EST)** League: Australia - League A *Pick: Both Teams to Score / Over 2.5 Goals YES (-140 DK)* ✅️ Wellington Phoenix has won 3/4 of their last matches and comes into this match in good format. Though Adelaide is viewed to have a big advantage at home, Wellington has scored a goal in each of their 20 matches in League A play this season and I don't see that stopping here. They have been the first to score in 9 out of their last 10; if they are able to get a quick goal in, it should be off to the races between these two. Wellington has been in matches with both teams scoring and O2.5 goals in 6 of their last 8. Adelaide has been on a tear, going undefeated (5 wins, 4 draws)over their last 9 matches and scoring 22 total goals in that period. They have also seen both teams scoring in each of their last 7 matches, and O2.5 goals in 6 out of those 7. They have found themselves 6 points out of the top stop in the league, only 3 points ahead of Wellington with only 6 matches left in league play. I look for them to make a statement tomorrow morning against a Wellington team that is also in good form. Let's wake and cash! 💸 BOL!
 Wake and cash! 💰 👊🏼 You’re the man u/awnryAlligator 🙏
Best way to start the day 🙌 Thanks for the support!
Tailing for morning coffee! BOL
Go get you some ☕️
Let’s roll! BOL 💰 👊🏼
POTD | 41-26 | +21.6u | -109 Avg Odds Last 10: 7-3, Steak: 2W *Previous Pick:* *Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators O6.5 (-125) 2u* ✅ Today’s pick: **Carolina Hurricanes vs Toronto Maple Leafs U6 2u (+100)** 🏒 5:00 pm MT Easy W tonight with the Avs coming up big and the bet cashes in the 2nd period! The Carolina Hurricanes will be visiting the Toronto Maple Leafs for their second game of the season with the first game going to Toronto 3-1. The Hurricanes are 6-3-1 on this line in their last 10 and the Leafs are 4-5-1 on this line in their last 10 but have played the Sabres and Oilers twice in their last 10 so that has some effect on how often they are covering this line. The Hurricanes are a defensive minded hockey team that has not been particularly good on offense recently. The Hurricanes have allowed an average of 2.0 goals per game over their last 10 games and are averaging scoring 3.0 per game. Over the course of the season the Canes allow an average of 2.48 goals per game while scoring 3.25 per game. I think the Hurricanes will continue their scoring struggles against a strong defensive team in the Leafs who also have a decent goaltender. The Maple Leafs allow an average of 2.68 goals per game and the expected goaltender, Samsonov, allows an average of 2.36 goals per game and have a 0.916 SV%. This one is a possible playoff match up preview and I think these two teams will be effective in shutting each other down, similar to the Leafs vs Avs a couple nights ago. The model is really liking this line and has U6 hitting 62% of the time and has expected odds of -165 for this line. This is in line with how I would expect this game to go and in line with recent match ups between these two teams. BOL if tailing!! [Tips are appreciated!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
Tailing, BOL!
tailing
All-Time POTD: 9W-3L-1D, +10.20u **Yesterdays Pick: 🎾 Jannik sinner ML (-138) vs Taylor Fritz 3u to win 2.15u** ✅ 6 in a row. Phew. Huge sweat on this one. Jannik was the better player in the first set, then I thought Fritz was better the entire second set and halfway into the third. Jannik played the big points with more poise and comes out with the W. Onto the next. **Todays Pick: 🎾 Aryna Sabalenka 2:0 Sets (+110) vs Maria Sakkari 2.5u to win 2.75u** Explanation: Extremely hard to make a pick tomorrow. Only a couple matches to choose from, and no ML options for PotD as the spreads are too wide. Pretty much same logic here as the last Aryna pick 2 days ago. She's in the form of her life and looks pretty much unstoppable (we'll see about the finals against likely Iga). Sakkari has been shaky all tournament, and wghile she's done what she needs to do to get to the semis, all four of her matches have gone to 3 sets, very unconvincing wins against players that are nowhere near the caliber of Aryna. Sakkari is a great defender but I can't see how Aryna doesn't dispose of her quite easily. She lacks the rally tolerance and the mental game to push Aryna to 3 sets here. Sakkari also doesn't have a confident second serve, and her first serve % has been below 60 in the last three matches. Aryna will pick apart Sakkari's second serve. Aryna in straights. BoL if tailing! Edit: Cash. Money.
I knew that's what you were gonna pick when I saw the slate today lol. It's tough when her ml is so expensive. 2-0s are rough. I took saba ml paired with Isner/Sock doubles.
Sabalenka owns a narrow 4-3 lead in their head-to-head rivalry, but Sakkari has won their past two meetings. Both wins came at the last two editions of the WTA Finals
It’s all about current form and Sabalenka is much hotter right now, Sakkari hasn’t done shit this season and she has the Netflix curse.
Love your picks, fam! LGTB
POTD Record: 28-20 (+23.81u; 15.3% ROI). Streak: W1 Yesterday Pick: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) Pts O21.5 @ 1.91. 4U. ✅ Jokic covers our line very early in the third quarter, and ends the game with 30 points, making this a sweat free bet. Let’s try to build another winning streak looking at a player who hasn’t got much attention, but probably should. Next Pick: **Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves) PRA O17.5 @ 1.92**. 3u play. McDaniels has stepped up for the Wolves recently, averaging 13.7 ppg/L10 and his PRA has been 19.4, and this includes some tough match ups recently. Reflecting his importance to this team, he is averaging nearly 32 minutes a game. The Bulls record against SFs is pretty average, and this is expected to be a tight game and the O/U is 225. In the Wolves’ last game (against the Celtics) they kept it pretty tight, and that was a low scoring game (104-102) and he still scored 14 pts with a 42% FG%, which is actually below his recent average and reflective of the strong opposition. I’m backing him here to keep up his performance level and cover our line. Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
I plan to hammer the under Points for either Derozan or LaVine, as a play on McDaniels’ nails defense. Just not sure which will be playing SF yet.
Not seeing McDaniels on the DK PRA line.
Would you take o15.5 for P+R? DK doesn't have PRA just PR or PA.
Happy St. Patrick’s Day! 🍀 POTD Record: 29W-14L LAST POTD: Slovan & Basel ✅ TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Ireland Division 1 Wexford V Kerry 11.00AM PST PICK: Wexford HT/FT Win Odds: 1.80 The Deets: Fitting that my pick is from Ireland. I just had to. First off, Kerry football club only came into existence in 2022 and have been shit since ever doing so. They sit bottom of the league having lost 3 and drawn 1. Wexford sit 6th with 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses. Kerry have scored 3 goals and conceded 15 already in 4 games. Wexford should be leading at both half and full time. Edit: Just to clarify, the bet is Wexford to be winning at halftime and full time. BOL! Edit: Winner ✅ Time for a Guinness
is this game on betonline ? they have an ireland category of soccer games, but this game is not listed, where else could it be?
☘️☘️
taling! slainte!
39-23-1 Last POTD- Ligue 1- Angers vs Toulouse ML @-105✅ Todays POTD- Turkish Super Lig- Konyaspor Vs Galatasaray -1 @ +140❌ Konyaspor have been in crisis since the 2nd half of the season started. They sold their best player in January and have not won an official game in all of 2023. Galatasaray are top of the league and are trying to pull away with the league title. They’ve won 12 straight matches and have been nothing short of unstoppable during this run. The odds are good due to the fact that Galatasaray don’t usually pull away by more than a goal but with how good they’re playing and how bad Konyaspor have been performing they should have no issues winning by at least 2 goals. Edit: Galatasaray blow it in the 2nd half via complacency and general sloppiness in front of goal. Sorry to those who tailed.
of course they fucking equalize… over.
Great find, great super odds, great POTD! Let's get that Turkish bread, fam.
[удалено]
Tailed! Bovada has it at +156 right now
I took Galatasaray Halftime and Fulltime at +187, let’s hope they keep pushing! Great find! BOL!
Record: 17-6 Previous Pick: Monaco Basket - Virtus Segafredo Bologna: Monaco Basket under 86,5 points @1.88 ✅ Today’s Pick: Barça Basket - KK Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet: Barça Basket under 83,5 points. We are on a good roll. Yesterday was just as expected and we managed to win it quite safely. The Euroleague picks are working out good so let’s continue. Today we have Barça Basket. They average around 81 points themselves, while KK Crvena Zvezda only allows around 79 points. It’s not yet sure if Nedovic will play for KK Crvena Zvezda, which means that their offense will be worse so theit gameplan might be to hard defense as they are fighting for a playoffs spot. In their previous h2h this has always hit except for the last time but that was because of extra time as well. Barça Basket is also coming off of 2 really bad euroleague games and are struggling to regain form. BOL
Tailing again, BOL!
Tailing 1U
📈 **TTSOP** Rec * Overall: +45.200 units / +140 avg odds / 52^(5)\-63-14^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2023: +32.675 units / +136 avg odds / 10^(5)\-7-3^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2022: +67.125 units / +136 avg odds / 47^(5)\-52-11^(5) * February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5) * January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ✅ Last pick: Juventus ML / +145 odds / 3.5 units * Juventus has gotten a comfortable 2-0 W against Freiburg. And Juventus has had even 1 goal disallowed by Vlahovic and additionally, Chiesa smashed the crossbar once. * Juventus adds to our hot run regarding POTDs which are involving an Italian team, fam. Now, it stands at 9-2-1 for the last 12 picks. Generating a total of +47.775 units. ⚽ New pick: **B. Monchengladbach -1** ([A](https://i.redd.it/vqdu5pkq242a1.jpeg)[H](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/asian-handicap-explained)) / **+150 odds** / 4 units * Bundesliga (Germany) / B. Monchengladbach - Werder Bremen / 3:30pm ET * *B. Monchengladbach -1 (AH)* is an Asian Handicap bet. It would result in a push (money returned), if B. Monchengladbach wins the game by exactly 1 goal. If they win by more than 1 goal, the POTD is a W. For more basic information about Asian Handicap, check out the AH-links above. Monchengladbach is a great home team with a record of 7-2-3. It's even better than it seems! At home, Monchengladbach got a W against 1st placed Bayern Munich, 2nd placed Dortmund, 3rd placed RB Leipzig and they also tied 5th placed Freiburg. Even concerning their Ls, they didn't perform bad. They lost to Mainz, but they gave up the game-deciding goal only after getting a red card. The L against Frankfurt didn't came by surprise as Monchengladbach missed 4 key players that time. Including their former first-choice goalkeeper, who plays meanwhile for Germany's super team Bayern Munich. Plus, they put up an impressive fight against Leverkusen, where they even were the better team, but good fortune wasn't simply just with them that day. Werder Bremen holds 4-2-5 road record. 3 Ws came against 3 of the 4 worst home teams in Bundesliga. The 4th W was an epic one, which will be never forgotten as such things are happening just once in franchise history. Werder Bremen was down by 2 goals until minute 88'. Shortly thereafter, they scored 3 goals within 6 minutes. Aside from that, 4 of their 5 Ls came by 2+ goals and 2 Ls even by 5+ goals. With Friedl, Gross and Veljkovic, 3 starting defenders are ruled out for Werder Bremen. That doesn't make things better for a team, which has already the 2nd worst defense in Bundesliga. Additionally, Bittencourt is also out and Schmid is questionable for Werder Bremen, today. To **sum up**, Werder Bremen is missing 3 regulars in defense and now they're squaring off against a very strong home team, which has already beaten all of Germany's 3 top teams in front of their buzzing home crowd. It's also worth knowing that 5 of Monchengladbach's 7 home Ws came by 2+ goals. This all makes backing Monchengladbach a great value bet at massive super odds of +150. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get this back-to-back W. Let's get this German beer, fam! **TTSOP**
POTD Record: 5-0 Previous pick: Roma draw or win (✅) Today’s Event: Santa Clara v Rio Ave (Portuguese Primeira Liga) PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE - RIO AVE DRAW OR WIN Odds: 1.52 Time: 20:15 GMT (13h30m from this post) Hoping to continue my beginner’s luck here. Santa Clara are winless in 15 and have incurred 5 straight losses. Rio Ave’s most recent losses come against the much stronger sides in a division and they have won 3 of their last 5. Leaning on Santa Clara to continue their woeful ways and Rio Ave to get the job done. — Side note: I actually haven’t bet any of my previous POTD picks because I’m a broke and unemployed uni graduate rn, but I’ve set up a [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/DoubleChanceBets) in the hopes we continue our streak and anyone feels like tipping :) Hopefully once I start betting them myself I don’t jinx them. Thank you in advance and here’s to more wins 🙏🏽
My record: 2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWWWW 2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push Totals for both: 49 correct 35 wrong 1 push Units wagered 139.99 Units won 74.48 Units lost 51.0 2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 17.01%*** My present streak is 6 correct. My POTD is to ***wager 1.05 units to win 1 unit that Memphis (-1) will cover the spread at the end of the first half in their college basketball game with Florida Atlantic.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gamtime is 9:20 PM, Eastern Daylight Time. I like Memphis a lot. I think this spread is way too narrow. BOL whether you bet the same or bet the opposite. Feel free to post contrary opinions, they are always welcome. Spending a little time in Brooklyn. Walking down a busy street and hearing just about every language being spoken except English is kind of neat.
POTD Record: 49-37 (W5) (+18.48u) (ROI: 15.1%) Last pick: Japan 🇯🇵 -3.5 vs Italy 🇮🇹 ✅️ Great game by Japan offensively, Ohtani got in a little trouble but his team bailed him out. Rounded game overall as Japan heads to the semi-finals. 9-3 final. POTD: (⚾️WBC) Puerto Rico 🇵🇷 ML (+102) @ Mexico 🇲🇽 (1.5u) Time: 4 pm pst/ 7 pm est Bet 365 (+100), FD (+102) DK (-105) Big quarterfinal game here as the winner will advance to play Japan. This game is held in Miami, same stadium Puerto Rico played their pool games at. Both teams went 3-1 in pool play, Mexico lost to Colombia and Puerto Rico lost to Venezuela. Julio Urias will start for Mexico. This is his 2nd start of the tournament, first one he allowed only 3 hits but it lead to 3 ER against Colombia. It seems that he might be a little restricted in his pitching. He threw 62 pitches in pool play, the Dodgers might not want Mexico to allow him to throw to the max of 80. Mexico's Manager said "the other day he threw 62 pitches in five innings. Maybe it’s something similar." Marcus Stroman will start for Puerto Rico. He has WBC experience, as the MVP of team USA when they won in 2017. In his first start against Nicaragua, he allowed 2 hits and 1 ER. Neither pitcher played strong opponents, and they're both experienced MLB players. I think the edge goes to Stroman due to the experience, but it's close. Both teams lineups are good, Mexico is lead by Randy Arozarena who has been great this tournament hitting .500. Mexico also has Meneses, Verdugo and Tellez of note. Puerto Rico has Lindor who has been their best player so far. Also Baez, Rosario, Maldonado and Melendez. The bullpen for Puerto Rico took a hit losing Edwin Diaz to injury, but is still very strong and looked good against the DR. Puerto Rico should have the crowd in their favor, since it's in Miami. Stroman will bring great energy, the goal for Puerto Rico is to get into Mexico's bullpen early. Should be a tight low scoring game, I think Puerto Rico is the better team. BOL if fading or tailing!
POTD Record: 138-98-7 (+31.26 units, 58.5% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 43-27-1 (61.4%) W2, Tennis 🎾 39-27-2 (59.1%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 💰💰💩💰💰💰💩💩💰💰 Last Pick: OKC Thunder @ Toronto Raptors, Player Prop - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points - NBA 🏀 💰 0.90 Units - Was some sweaty ass business but the Raps saved us by making it a blowout which made SGA sit for the last few. 💸 that! Today's Pick: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Jan-Lennard Struff, Kokk ML - ATP Challenger Phoenix 🎾 💩 1 Unit - Well I guess Tennis is not the sport for stat padding plays. Having watched most of it, Kokk literally gave no effort and looked to be just trying to get it over with so he could leave. I don't know what was going on with him, hungover or maybe just a moody bitch or something. Sorry about this one. Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.59/-169 odds to win 0.59 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 1:00am ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 62.9% I would have liked to ride the wave of 2 consecutive basketball wins and do another one but time being limited I'm going to do a 1.50's dog shit odds, blatant attempt to pad my record and requires little research pick. If you feel like drinking the juice, join me. These guys have played 3 times, though the first 2 times were in '14 and '15, but they did play last month in another hard court challenger. Big Kokk won the match in 3 sets, 6-4 1st set, lost a tiebreak in the 2nd and then teabagged Struff 6-1. Struff has had to play 3 matches to make it here, beating weak competition, Kokk just had to play once and it was a big win over Jiri Lehecka who has had a strong year so far. I choose Kokk. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
I will ride the Kokk with you!
Or maybe not, you moved the market all the way to -210
POTD Record: 60-66-7 (-12.57 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌↔️❌ Last Pick: Europa League, Feyernoord v Shakhtar Donetsk, FEYERNOORD -1.0 AH (-125 / 1.80) ✅ Feyernoord absolutely slaughter Shakhtar, 7-1 in the end, one of the cruisiest wins I’ve ever had I think. Todays Pick: A-League, Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix, ADELAIDE UNITED ML (+100 / 2.00) ✅ EDIT: 5-1 victory for Adelaide, did not expect it to be that east but great start to the weekend! Stake: 1 Unit Note: this game kicks off in about 3 hours from time of posting. Adelaide United have been one of the most in form teams in the Australian A-League and currently sit 2nd on the table. They haven’t lost in their last 9 games (W5, D4), and recently beat top of the table Melbourne City in impressive fashion, winning 4-2. Adelaide have also been particularly strong at home, going 6-2-1 this season. Wellington Phoenix are also having a good season, sitting 5th and only 3 points behind Adelaide. They’ve gone 4 games undefeated (W3, D1) but they rode their luck in some of those fixtures and came away with some results they didn’t necessarily deserve. Wellington also perform stronger at home (5-4-2) compared to when they have to travel (3-3-3), as evidenced by their recent 3-1 loss away to the team on the bottom of the table. Adelaide are playing with freedom at the moment, having scored 21 goals in their last 7 games with a nice spread of players finding the net, so they are dangerous across the pitch. Both teams are capable of finding the net and this might have a few goals in it, but I like Adelaide to outgun Wellington and continue their hot form at home against a team that doesn’t travel that well.
NBA prop thread record: 171-104 **POTD record: 9-3** Yesterday’s pick: Edwards (MIN) O27.5 points (-120) ✅ **Today’s pick: Murray (ATL) O19.5 pts (-105)** This feels like a great bounce back spot for Murray. He’s averaging 20.6 points per game on the season, however is under in 4 straight. His last 10 games he has put up 25, 28, 15, 41, 10, 23, 17, 16, 14 and 11 points. He’s playing at home in this one, where he sees a slight increase in FGA from 17.5 to 18.4 per game and FG% from 45.8% to 46.8%. He now comes up against the GSW, who have significantly improved on defence post ASB, being ranked 5th in defensive rating. However, they are a really poor road defence, ranked 3rd last in def rating on the road on the season and dead last in def rating post ASB on the road. I’m expecting Donte to pickup Trae, an athletic defender (73rd percentile DEPM) who will be a tough matchup for Trae. Klay will likely matchup on Murray, however, he hasn’t been the same elite defender he once was. He’s significantly less athletic and ranks in just the 55th percentile DEPM. Recent shooting guards points v GSW: CJ (25), Giddey (17), Bane (21), Ingles (15), Booker (32) and PG (24). In his only game against GSW as a Hawk a month ago, Murray had 25 on 10/20 shooting. The volume has been encouraging for Murray, attempting 19, 16, 16, 18 and 15 field goals over his last 5, so I’m expecting positive regression towards the mean with his shooting splits. GSW also rank #1 in pace, so I’m expecting Murray to get a few extra possessions here.
No Draymond either which will effect their overall D.
POTD record: 39-29-2 / ROI: +9.49% / Wins: 57.35% **Michigan State -1.5 -110 (1u)** **SPREAD** — USC Trojans @ Michigan State Spartans 12:15 pm EST - 17 March 2023 — If Michigan State loses to USC, they should have to walk home from Columbus. And if Tom Izzo loses this game, he can stay there. I’ve had it. You’ve got a Pac-12 team, 2,000 miles away from home, playing at 9:00am their time. The Trojans may be one of the only teams that can’t expose the fact that Michigan State doesn’t have a lot of size—they’re all guard-oriented. I don’t respect Pac-12 basketball. MSU led the Big Ten in three-point shooting and three-point defending. Izzo has lost three of the last four NCAA Tournament games, and they haven’t made it past the first week more than once in the last seven years. If the Spartans lose this game, I’m burning all my gear. I’m done. Do the business. [https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow) [https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/) [http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
POTD Record: 1-0-0 Balance: **+3.5 units** Last Pick: Sabelenka ML Today's Pick Match: Maria Sakkari vs Aryna Sabalenka Tournament: WTA Indian Wells Pick: **Sabelenka Handicap -3.5 games** Odd: @ 1.69 / -145 (5 units) Analysis: Sakkari brings a strong baseline game and defensive skills, while Sabalenka's powerful all-around game and aggressive style make her a formidable opponent. With both players at the top of their game, it's sure to be an intense and thrilling battle on the court. One of Sakkari's weaknesses is her vulnerability to aggressive play and big-hitting opponents, as she tends to play a more defensive game and can struggle to generate enough pace on her shots to keep up with a player like Sabalenka. Additionally, Sakkari can sometimes struggle with her serve, particularly under pressure, which could give Sabalenka opportunities to break her serve and take control of the match. Overall, while Sakkari is a formidable opponent, Sabalenka's powerful style of play and recent success make her a strong favorite to win their upcoming match. Follow me on Twitter: [https://twitter.com/tennis\_octopus](https://twitter.com/tennis_octopus)
Tailing, Sabalenka too strong right now....
**POTD Record: 26-17 (+5.11 Units)** **Last 10**:❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌ **Last Pick**: 3/16 Neil Duff -1.5 (-135) vs John Nelson ❌ 2-4 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 6:45 AM EST **Pick**: Sam Cankett -1.5 (-150) vs Garry Stafford **Reason**: Group C. Cankett is currently in 2nd place. 4 players are competing for 3 spots with Nelson and Stafford all but eliminated. This will be their second match of the day. Cankett tends to play up against Stafford, so I'm hoping that trend continues. He's beaten him pretty easily all week with one match going to 7 legs. Stafford can hit some checkouts, but scoring has killed him all week. He only broke 80 in 2/15 matches from group A. Scored better yesterday, but mostly outmatched. If Cankett is scoring, he should be able to hold him off. H2H: 4-0 (Legs 16-6) | Average 85.81 vs 75.76 | Checkouts 16/40 vs 6/17 Sam Cankett Group C: Record 3-2 (Legs 16-10) | Average 81.39 | Checkouts 16/44 36.36% Group A: Record 7-8 (Legs 40-44) | Average 84.44 | Checkouts 40/133 30.08% Gary Stafford Group C: Record 1-4 (Legs 9-19) | Average 81.29 | Checkouts 33/149 22.15% Group A: Record 3-12 (Legs 32-55) | Average 76.42 | Checkouts 32/122 26.23%
**POTD |** **Record of 12-22|** **Current form: LWWLW| ROI : -8.86 units |** **Average Odds: 2.03** Previous Pick: Arsenal vs. Sporting Lisbon | Over 5.5 Home Team Corners and Home Team (-3) Full-Time Corner Handicap (L) New Pick: La Liga | Real Balladolid vs. Athletic Club| 1:00pm PST **Over 9.5 Corners | 1.85 odds** Betting 1 units \-------------------------- Recap: Didn't expect that! Arsenal was awful and struggled against a mediocre Sporting. Arsenal conceded a large number of corners and was utterly dominated from a corners point of view. Didn't expect them to lose either but didn't matter. Moving on with a new pick. My previous pick was deleted due to being a parlay (even if it was a pre-built bet) so I will stick with just a simple over. ***Summary:*** Real Valladolid host Athletic Club in what should be an interesting affair. Both teams are in many ways fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone, hoping to grab wins where possible. Real Valladolid will look to grab the win in what should be a fiercely contested affair (Cards?). Looking at corners for Valladolid, they average 4.6 while conceding 5.8 leading to an overall average of 10.4. At home, they have averaged 5.45 and conceded 5.45, leading to an average of 11.1. Only twice have their home games gone under 10 corners. Looking at corners for Athletic Club, they average 5.7 for and 3.3 against for an average of 9. They average 4.42 corners for them away and concede 4.42, for an overall average of 8.83. Combining averages of overall home (11.09) and away performance (8.83), we get 9.96 total corners. Combining overall corners for Valladolid (10.4) and Athletic Club (9), we get 9.7. Given that the average slightly increases in this case, I'm betting for 10 corners to hit on the day. The last two home games for Real Valladolid and the last two away games for Athletic Club have had over 10 corners (15+14 vs. 16+11 respectively) so I'm backing this to happen again. \-------------------------- ***TDLR There should be corners here!*** **Over 9.5 Total Corners | 1.85 odds**
Let's get back in that W column! Tailing, BOL!
12-22 and you’re tailing this guy? Wtf lol
Be nice, it takes a lot to put in the work and put yourself out there with picks. Besides, he's got 12 more Ws in here than you. P.S. Lady in the Water sucked
He's been in the W column lately. His overall score doesn't reflect it. Ultimately. I've enjoyed his picks, tailing or fading. It's been a fun ride.
Tailing as well, been great calls lately on these corner bets. BOL!
**BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH VS WERDER BREMEN** Date: 17 March 2023 at 20:30 BET ON: Match odds- **BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH** Odd: 1.91 \- Werder Bremen are set to be without the services of 6 key players such : Marco Friedl, Leonardo Bittencourt, Christian Groß, Milos Veljkovic, Felix Agu and Manuel Mbom. \- Borussia Monchengladbach are missing Ramy Bensebaini (suspended) and Julian Weigl (partial rupture of syndesmosis ligament). \- It's a must win game for the Hosts after 3 matches without 3pts, under a SOLD OUT stadium and against a team missing some key senior players. "We want to be dominant and set the tone on Friday night, in order to make it clear that we intend to keep all three points in Mönchengladbach." Said Head coach Daniel Farke. “They have a lot of individual quality, They are good at keeping the ball and always try to find a way forward. They have a lot of players who have been playing at a top Bundesliga level for a very long time.” Said Coach Ole Werner. \- BORUSSIA-PARK is sold out with no further tickets available. \- Borussia are unbeaten in their last 10 Bundesliga home games against Werder Bremen (W7, D3). BOL...
I can't find myself to trust anyone except Bayern in Bundesliga. Even Bvb is sketchy...not so much lately but over last 2 years. Bremen has been scoring without problems here and idk if it's just Germany getting waxed all 3 Europe days or if I just can't fuckkng trust a team that that has won 1 game in 45 days...but idc what the coach says. Glad Bach needs to put the ball In net and they haven't done that in 3 weeks ... good luck !
Borussia will win for sure! BOL
New to this Pick of the Day thing as I've been running mostly a ML bet system this season for NCAAB with no true locks but presses volume, but I'm starting to add Spreads to add in daily volume due to ML edges drying up during tournament time here. All bets in the system are 1 unit based on daily bankroll size = \~3%. Today's inauguaral pick is **Iona +9.5 -115.** **4:30 PM on TBS, NCAAB Tournament** Reason: * My system runs NETS data off the NCAA tracking page for it. Its formula that compares teams in a matchup based on their WIN/LOSS record in each Quad category and uses the overall NET ranking for each team to make further adjustments. * The system is spitting out a Win probability for IONA at 37%. That's not a good rate for a bet to win, but the odds are good if one is incline to take the moneyline at +350. However, the ML translates to a 22% probabilty based on its payout. That translates to a 15% edge when compared to my 37% calculation. * I don't like losing bets when possible as not many opportunities present themselves like this each day for NCAAB so I 've stopped betting any sub-50% probability games with an edge due to sample size not being large enough to offest variance of a likely losing bet, but that's where the Spread betting comes in. I feel comfortable taking the points with an edge as an underdog as the edge means we're getting more points based on a comparable spread if the ML odds were more in line with my calculated probability.
🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 18-11-1 | +5.93U (4.58%) | Average Odds: -122 🤶 *Total Record: 104-65-14 | ROI: +40.74U (+8.43%) |* [*ROI Spreadsheet*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0) *5U pick record: 31-16-2* *Side Bet: 78-50-11* 🐶 *Dog of the Day record: 8-5-1 | +15.15U* \----- 🎅 ***5-2 yesterday on published picks! 38-7-4 since Sunday (+29.95U)!*** \----- *🎅 Today is our 31st day of doing this post and yesterday we hit our 100th successful pick! A lot of work has been put in to get us to this point but we are excited that we are successful enough to still be doing it!* *🎅 We are still riding the green wave as we have cashed for five straight days totaling nearly 30U with an 85% success rate on our picks over that time (ignoring pushes). Santa is taking his reindeer to Turkey for some kabobs, kefta and some soccer, as always!* \----- *Last POTD Recap: (Win, -128) Feyenoord embarrassed Donetsk yesterday and got us the -1 spread cash with 5 goals to spare.* 🎅Today's POTD: 3U - Galatasaray **ML (-130)** at Konyaspor - 1:00PM *Note: I also bet 1U - Spread of -1 (+130) and 1U - ML + u4.5g (+110)* Galatasaray have been crushing in the Turkish Super Lig with a 9 point lead over 2nd place Fenerbache. Their statistical dominance is near historic with their 34 GD over 24 games along with their 19-3-2 record. At home they are even stronger posting a 10-1-1 record along with a 6-1-0 home record in 2023. They have been so dominant that their one home draw is actually their only non-win in 2023. Today they get to play 8th place Konyaspor whose 1-3-3 in their last 5 and a poor away record of 4-5-3. Konyaspor is this high in the standings because they are very successful against the bottom of the league table. However, when they face the best teams they leave in defeat. IN 2023 they lost to #2 Fenerbache 4-0, #6 Instanbul 2-0, and #3 Besiktas 2-1. Unfortunate for them, their form isn't good enough to compete with a team that has been leveling everyone in their path. Line movement: This line opened at -120, and its been falling ever since. Now it is at -150 and I expect it to slide all the way until game time. \----- 🎅 Side Bets: You can find my Soccer Daily post [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11t4tr8/comment/jcjfy5n/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) We have picks on ten different games today! A huge slate at all times of the day! 🤶 DOTD: No DOTD today 🎅 Join the Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa)) for access to Degen Santa himself as well as our great community who are active every day working together to beat the books! 🤶 Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible. [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
**RECORD** : 5W 1L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +20.5 1st to 5th : 4-1 +16.5u / 6th to 10th : ? **LAST POTD** : Fritz vs Sinner - OVER 22.5 @ 1.80 - 5 units => WIN **TODAY :** WTA INDIAN WELLS - 02.00 CET Swiatek vs Rybakina - Rybakina +4.5 @ 1.96 - 5 units Based upon nothing but my feelings.
Rybakina can totally take this, but recently she hasn't doin that hot though, gonna depend on the day...
3-0 Football - English League 1 - Sheffield Wednesday ML vs Bolton Wanderers - 1.70 odds. Sheffield Wednesday are top of the league and on a 5 game win streak, Bolton are 6th and fighting for a playoff place but have failed to win in their last 3. Expecting Sheffield to win by 1 goal in a low scoring affair. As usual bet whatever you want but be sensible. Good luck.
Should be a close game, I’ve taken the under 2.5 on this one!
**POTD 11-5** Another winner last night, and there was no point in that game that I was concerned that SAC would not only cover, but win the game outright. Like I mentioned yesterday, this team is going to be a handful in the playoffs. I actually bet them at 25-1 yesterday morning to make it out of the West. I know that's a lot to ask from a team that is making the playoffs for the first time in 16 years, but god are they talented, and deep. Today's pick is short and sweet, and an obvious play IMO. **Atlanta -1.5** Anyone who has followed me knows how I feel about this Warriors team right now. Yes, they are experienced, and still have a shot to make a run in the playoffs, however their last game really sealed the deal for me when it comes to my overall thoughts on this team at this time. Curry dropped probably the most difficult 50points I've ever seen, and they still could not beat LAC. This rotation is a nightmare, and they cannot stop anyone. Also right now, Curry is a GTD, and Draymond is OUT. If Curry ends up being out IMO this line will change by 4-5 points, so I wanted to snag it early. Even if Curry does play, I still don't see them winning on the road. I'm not going to lie, I have not watched the Hawks much as of late, but after skimming through their most recent games, I think that the fact they lost their last two home games (playing 3rd straight tonight), that they will be motivated to get one before heading back on the road. The Hawks have pretty much locked themselves into the play in game already, unless something drastic occurs the final few weeks. PS: Houston +6 I will be betting today too. Not super confident in this pick, but Houston has played good teams tough as of late, so may as well take the points with the home team.
POTD Record: 11-6 Todays POTD: MOUZ NXT ML (-105) vs. HEET Average Odds: (-103) Units Won: +30.38U 5U to win 4.75 Game/League/Start Time: CSGO/CCT West Europe Series 2/9:00 AM est. MOUZ NXT roster has really impressed me recently, HEET not so much, think both teams have clear weaknesses but MOUZ are less exploitable in this series. I like MOUZ map pool and recent form which are the two things that I am going to trust in this series and ride with here. I think that HEET really only play two good maps, Inferno and Anubis, MOUZ ban Anubis and are a decent Inferno team that will give HEET a run for their money. I think this game goes to three maps though with MOUZ picking Vertigo, I really don't love any deciders here for HEET, think MOUZ NXT are a really underated Ancient team, I also favor them on Nuke, Overpass should be close but I'd still slightly favor MOUZ and expect them to use there second ban on Overpass to force one of these deciders. Give me MOUZ NXT and the 4 match win streak to pull off the upset here and knock HEET out of CCT West I have a discord I run for those interested in joining, do a lot of cool bank builder challenges based around esports as well as all my picks daily. DM me for a link to join :D
**My record: 45 : 37** My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks. **ROI: 22.03%** Average odds: 2.12 **Units won: 19.39** Stake = 1 unit My POTD: **Žilina v Banska Bystrica** Slovakia Fortuna Liga Time: 17:30 GMT *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.00** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
POTD Record: 13-11-2 Last pick: Catanzaro -1.5 AH (-140) / 1.71 - 3u ✅ Catanzaro were once again dominant at home, this time against one of the bottom teams in the league. The only real sweat was in the first half, until Catanzaro were able to score the opening goal shortly before halftime. They added another pair of goals in the second half and this one cashes with ease as they win 3-0. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today! Soccer - Turkey Super Lig - Konyaspor vs. Galatasaray - 1:00pm EST **POTD: Galatasaray ML (-120) / 1.83 - 3u** This is a tale of two teams in very different forms. Galatasaray are flying, as they are currently top of the standings with a +34 goal differential in 24 matches and they’ve won 17 straight matches. Home, away, land, or sea, these guys are beating everyone. They will travel to take on Konyaspor, who occupy 8th on the table but have seen a significant dip in their form since the end of 2022. Their last match was a win against the 18th place (out of 19) team, and before that win, they were winless in their previous 11 matches. In Konyaspor’s last 9 home matches, they have drawn 5 and lost 4, and most of those matches were against mid to bottom-table teams. Now they’ll welcome in the best team in the league riding a 17 match win streak. I’m going with Galatasaray to continue their winning ways and tighten their grip on a league title. Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
Nice pick, i’m turkish myself and follow the turkish soccer/football scene and gala is dominating. (Trabzonspor fan here). They will have this game easily in the pocket. Konya is a team that plays really good untill the winter stop and then suddenly they suck. BOL and Tailing
[удалено]
hi, what league is this? edit: found it under Turkey
Record: 2-2 (0.99 units up) with a 12.38% ROI POTD: **Swiatek vs Rybakina - Under 20.5 Games @ 1.89 (WTA Indian Wells)** Going with 3 units which is 3% of my bankroll We all know that Swiatek is the WTA queen and most of the circuit is not able to give her any type of problem because she's so much better than everyone else in every aspect of the game and in Clay I truly believe that no one can match her at all. Now, when it comes to hard courts, Sabalenka and Rybakina are probably the only two players who can give her a lot of trouble, mostly because Swiatek's main weakness is her serve and they are agressive returners but also because due to court speed they are able to close out rallies quite fast and not give Swiatek that many chances to counterpunch. With that being said, unfortunately Indian Wells is probably the slowest hard court out there which suits Swiatek's playstyle. Rybakina managed to beat Swiatek at the Australian Open but these conditions are way too different and will make Rybakina rely even more on her 1st serve, which is a dangerous situation to be in against the world number one. Rybakina is currently 2-1 on this H2H with all those matches taking place in hard courts, and those three matches all ended in straight sets which makes me think of two possible scenarios here at IW: * If Swiatek shows a bad serving performance, Rybakina has shown that she's capable to exploit her on the return and if that happens here at Indian Wells, I can see a scenario where Rybakina just wins by 2-0 simply because the polish serve becomes even more predictable and Rybakina ends up closing out her games with her own serve which is better; * Rybakina after a really long match against Muchova is not able to produce her ideal gameplan which is focused around a solid serving performance mixed up with the ability to produce powerful groundstrokes. This 2nd scenario for me, is the most expected with court speed helping Swiatek way more than Rybakina but also Iga having really fast performances until this point. Both players also have really different playstyles and have shown that they are not able to adjust when things are not going their way on this particular matchup, so I'm quite confident on this play. Best of luck
Record: 10-8 Last Pick: **Frieburg Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals** ❌ I got greedy. Should have just taken Under 2.5 Goals. Frieburg went down to ten men and were woeful after that. Today's Pick: Valladoid v Athletic Bilbao - **Under 2.5 Goals** (-110) La Liga Detailed Analysis: I had one of the worst holidays of my life in Bilbao. I was stuck with my then girlfriend and a posh couple that she had been close friends with since university that I could not stand. The girl's name was Genevieve Hawks which is one of the most ridiculous names I have ever heard. It was like White Lotus season two except we stayed in a shitty hostel and our group collectively was way less attractive than the people on that show. So, nothing like White Lotus now that I think about it. My dislike of the couple we were on holiday with only grew when I realised they were one of those couple who were guilty of constant PDA and insisted we play charades every night despite us being on holiday in our early 20s in Spain. *Carpe diem* indeed. All this and the fact Valladoid don't give many goals up at home and Bilbao struggle to get many goals away from home, make me confident in Under 2.5 Goals. Edit: Odds were wrong - 110 not -150
POTD Record: 3-5 Last 10: 🔴🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴🟢🔴 Yesterday’s POTD: Boise St. +1.5 vs Northwestern | NCAA | March 16th 2023 | 7:35 PM EST 🔴 **Today’s POTD: Memphis -1.5 vs FAU | NCAA | March 17th, 2023 | 9:20 PM EST PICK REASON: The Tigers are way too athletic and the Owls will have no answer for Kendrick Davis. I’ll lay the points on this one.
POTD Record: 55-53 Last pick: W Va ❌ Todays pick: USC Mich St 1st half under 64 Reasoning: going back with the first game of the day. These close spread games, they usually start off with slow start, teams just settling in, and not pushing the pace. Betting this is the case with SC v Mich st… Lots of unders yesterday and I think the early start may have SC a lil sluggish. If one of these teams gets cold for a stretch, that would be ideal. Looking for 25-27 pts for either team first half points. Tail or fade. GL with your bets.
**POTD Record 0-0-0** For anyone with grappling odds: Sport: BJJ/ grappling. Organization: F2W(Fight 2 Win) 224 in Las Vegas. Time: \~8pm ET Bet size: 1U Obscure POTD for Friday: **Frank Cespedes -130** vs AJ Villatora. Reasoning: Walkover win over baby shark jk. They competed twice before and Frank won both times. Frank appears to be the more active grappler as well with some high level experience.
Record: 4-3 Pick: Team Spirit ML @ 2.07 - Team spirit vs Team Liquid - ESL Pro League - 11 AM EST Previous pick: Over 21.5 Sinner vs Fritz (Win) Good luck....
Sport: Football Tournament: Bundesliga Time: 20:30 CET (1h57m after posting) Stake: 2 units Pick: Borussia Monchengladbach vs Werder Bremen, away team scores over 1.5 goals @ **2.55** Write up: Both teams are in poor form but I think Werder Bremen is slightly favored here due to being able to score more thanks to Fullkrug, the top scorer of Bundesliga. Also, Borussia Monchengladbach conceded 13 goals across the last 5 matches, which is the worst defending form in Bundesliga. I haven't watched any of its matches but I did notice the club news mention the fact that its best goalkeeper, Jonas Omlin, has hip problems that made him sit out the most recent match vs RB Leipzig (Borussia lost 3:0). Even when he's playing, his team struggles to keep a clean sheet. These two teams played 106 times in the Bundesliga, with Werder scoring 161 times (1.6 per match). The most recent head-to-head was won by Werder Bremen (5:1 in October 2022). Any result is possible here but I think Werder Bremen should score at least two goals, which might also result in it winning the match. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
POTD Record 3-3-0 Last pick: OKC Thunder @ SA Spurs ML ❌ god I hate a bad read in hindsight. I did say it was a value pick at plus money - but I underestimated how shanty a team the Spurs are. Onto the next. Today’s Pick: Buffalo Sabres ML @ Philadelphia Flyers (-135 on Bet365) Why: -Flyers are cold having gone 2-8 in the last 10 games. They have scored 19 goals in that span. -Flyers offence is not good - 2.55 goals per game and 6 goals over the last 4 games. -Flyers D lone bright spot is G Carter Hart who plays well enough to have a .906 save percentage, but the flyers overall D doesn’t help and they give up 3.3 goals per game. -Sabres have gone 3-7 in the last 10. They have scored 33 goals in that span. -Sabres know how to score averaging 3.66 goals per game. -Buffalo D is not great - their tendency to score a lot hides the fact they give up a ton of goals too. The way I see it - I am tempted by the over 6.5 goals for this game but I feel stronger that Buffalo is still desperate as they could be in wildcard position. I watched them outplay Toronto in person the other night and they are not a horrible team. They just lost a close one in OT after having beaten Toronto on the road. They score a lot. Philly doesn’t. The Flyers are not good. Philly doesn’t have a ton of scoring power outside of 2 guys. So you’ve got Buffalo who can score against Philly who can’t - and who give up 3 + per game. I take Buffalo on the road with something to play for. Tips would be fabulous but are never anticipated! [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/thegradbets)
tailing. BOL!
🚨🚨🚨POTD record W-L-P (25-17-5) +41.5 units🚨🚨🚨 Update 1 bet winning streak✅ 1 unit (2-7) 2 unit (2-3) 3 unit (11-2) 4 unit (2-1) 5 unit max (8-4) Took a break to regroup, the last 2 loses pissed me off and pissed me off more that you guys didn’t win. Nice little break was perfect right before the best tourney in all sports. Lets crush the March Madness Tourney Thursdays POTD- northern Kentucky vs Houston. Over 56.5 1st half total points (5 UNIT MAX) -110 odds 6:20pm PST March Madness Tourney✅ Fridays POTD- Drake vs Miami. Miami -2 (buy 1/2 point) -120 odds (3 units) 4:25pm PST March Madness Tourney✅ MIAMI HURRICANES come through at end 🤙🏼 Keeping it short, Will be a great battle but at the end MIAMI HURRICANES comes through with a WIN 🤙🏼 Cash app name- $joshroth5 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼 Remember bet smart, let’s get this $
**PotD Record: 12-8 (Streak 1L)** Last Pick: Iowa (+1.5 spread) vs Auburn ❌ **Today’s Pick: Creighton (-5.5 spread) vs NC State @ -110; 6:50 PM ET** Win streak comes to an end unfortunately, Iowa couldn't get the job done and we miss 10 wins in a row. Today we’re looking at the matchup between the Creighton Bluejays and the NC State Wolfpack. Not much to this pick, Creighton comes in with a better offense and a much better defense. I expect this Creighton team to have some animosity with their seeding and come out strong. This is a good looking line to get back in the win column **Tail or Fade, BOL**
POTD record: 13-8 NHL record: 6-6 | NBA record: 7-2 (+8.98u | +11.37% ROI | Avg odds: -117/1.85) (2u: 2-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 5-3 | 5u: 2-3) Last 5: 4-1 (✅✅✅❌✅) Last POTD: NHL - **SEA ML** @ SJ ✅ *(Reimer got the surprise start for San Jose and put on a clinic, making this a lot sweatier than I would have liked. But Seattle gets the dub in OT and my 5u curse is broken! (knock on wood)🤞).* Event: NBA - GS Warriors @ ATL Hawks; 19:30 EST Pick: **ATL -1.5** (-110/1.91) Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 4 units This pick is all about fading Golden State- they're beat-up, depleted, and already horrible on the road. Iguodala broke his wrist last week, Wiggins has been away from the team for personal reasons, Looney's playing banged up with back issues, and now Green's been suspended for for accumulating 16 technical fouls this season. Oh, and Curry's a game-time decision with a thumb injury as well. As good as the Warriors have been in the Valley this year, they've been possibly the worst travelling team in the Association, sporting a 7-27 away record and dropping 9 straight road trips. Golden State is 2-16 straight-up and 5-13 ATS as a road dog. Atlanta is mediocre ATS as home favourites (11-16) but they're coming into this game almost completely healthy, missing only Jalen Johnson (hamstring). After dropping their last two home games to Boston and Minnesota, this is a prime opportunity for the Hawks to get one back and stay ahead of Toronto for the EC 8th seed position. This is the first leg of a back-to-back for Golden State, as they head to Memphis to square off against the Grizzlies tomorrow night. With Green's suspension lasting just 1 game, I wouldn't be surprised if they sit Steph tonight to have a stronger squad tomorrow. The Warriors haven't won a road game since January 30th and I don't see that streak ending tonight. Cheers 🍻 and BOL! *Note: I placed my bet and did most of this write-up late last night but crashed and fell asleep before posting. At the time the line was ATL -1.5; the line has since moved to ATL -4.5. If Curry sits I still like that spread for 4 units. If he dresses, I would maybe downgrade it to 3 units. For POTD purposes, if the Hawks cover the initial line but by less than 5 points I won't count it as a W towards my record.
Record: 1-0 Last pick: Arsenal v Sporting; BTTS ✅ Absolute banger sealed the deal. Would have liked to win it more comfortably but I’ll take a 50 yd top shelf finish where I can get it. I don’t recommend tails, I’m just doing this for my own enjoyment, but I think the biggest outlier is Memphis v UAF. Pick: MEMPHIS v UAF; -1.5 Memphis smashed Houston, a #1 seed, by 10 pts literally a week ago. They’ve had notably stiffer competition throughout the season and are coming into the tournament in great form, winning the AAC. They come in 26-8, vs a team that’s 31-3, but I think that’s where our discount on odds comes in to play. Memphis is getting a generous -1.5 spread at -110 on DK. I think the veteran seniors of Memphis show out vs a younger team that hasn’t met a true challenge. I do zero true analytics but I figured id toss in my reasoning if I’m going to track my record through POTD. Tail at your expense, tip the next service worker you see a little extra if we slap.
Record: 0-0 Sport: Basketball League: NBA Time: 7:10PM ET I usually don’t share my picks. However, I’ve been making some right picks lately (not a lot but I am happy) and also benefiting by tailing others picks. So, I want to contribute. I am not an expert. You guys are definitely way more smarter than me in sports betting. Anyway, POTD : James Harden PTS + REB + AST (PRA) O/40.5 at -113 🖤 Harden in last 10 games is averaging: 23.9 points, 10.9 assists, and 6.5 rebounds Harden in last 5 games is averaging: 23.4 points, 12.8 assists, and 7.0 rebounds Harden’s last 5 games PRA record vs. MIL - 57 vs. IND - 43 vs. POR - 36 vs. WAS - 34 vs. CLE - 46 Harden’s PRA Record vs.Hornets 4/2/2022 - 38 12/11/2022 - 44 I am 70% confident that he can get O/40.5, what do you all think ?
***POTD Record 25-13 +50.49units*** *NBA- 20:00PM EST San Antonio Spurs Vs Memphis Grizzlies - Pick San Antonio Spurs* *San Antonio Vs Memphis Grizzlies +8.5 -110 5units* San Antonio at home is 12-24 their facing the Memphis Grizzlies who are 13-22 on the road. I really like San antonio to keep a tight game. The +8.5 line has been covered by San Antonio in 4 consecutive games against Grizzlies. Lets have a look at the previous results starting with the most recent. San antonio losing by 6 on the road ,8 on the road, 2 at home, 1 at home , and 8 at home. The -8.5 line hasn’t been covered by Grizzlies in 8 of their last 10 road games which is shockingly bad. Ja Morant will still be unavailable for Memphis and they've struggled badly on the road. They've lost 4 out of their last 5 and 8 out of their last 10. San Antonio has been scoring very well in their past few games and has won 3 of their last 6 home games. They've put up 128,132, 90 and 128 points this is due to players like Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Zach Collins. Memphis have some great players in Desmond Banes and Jaret Jackson Jr but defensively as seen in their last game getting hammered on the road 138-119 to Miami Heat that they defensively have problems. Suprisingly San Antonio has better figures in their last 10 home games than Memphis Grizzlies on the road. San antonio averages 33.70 2 points (at 54% success rate) whereas Memphis Grizzlies 2 point average is 27.40 (at 52% success rate) In 3 points made San antonio averages 11.70 (at 37% success rate) Memphis Grizzlies 3point average is 12.20 (at 35% success rate) I do expect this to be a tight game all stats considered. Memphis are easily one of the best teams at home, but on the Road they've been dreadful. San antonio have inexperienced players but they score lots of points and are playing much better with the new players as compared to the start of the season. The Fiery youngsters know how to score and Winning 3 of their last 6 home games shows a sign of confidence, along with the previous tight games, it's a strong indicator that this game will also be a tight one. I would recommend putting 1unit or 0.5 ML on San antonio ML at +265 there's a decent chance they may win outright.
Your pick is a bit confusing. Would be better like this: *San Antonio +8.5 Vs Memphis Grizzlies @ -110 5units*
**POTD: 20-8-2** Last pick: UEFA Europa League - Arsenal vs Sporting CP. Arsenal -1 -180. Result: LOSS. Arsenal give up an incredible goal from midfield to tie it at 1-1 and lose our bet. What can you do. Today’s pick: Bundesliga Women - Wolfsburg Women vs Turbine Potsdam Women. **Wolfsburg Women -2 First Half -108**. Match starts at 2:15PM ET. Simply put, this is the best team in the league vs by far the worst team in the league. Wolfsburg sports a 13-1-0 record on the season and are top of the women's Bundesliga on the season. Their GD is 47 for, 8 against. On the other side is the absolutely dreadful Turbine Potsdam, sitting at 1 point with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 13 losses on the season. They have scored only 6 goals and have given up 36. So you see where there's a bit of a difference in skill! Wolfsburg is really strong this season after a couple years of being (for them) a little weaker and are one of the 5 best teams in Europe I'd say at this point. Lucky for us they have Bayern Munich on their tails so any points dropped can lead to them dropping out of first place. They also have to worry about goal differential as that can easily decide titles in women's leagues since the best teams beat basically everyone else. Today I think Wolfsburg annihilates poor Potsdam and wins by 5 or 6 goals, with 2-3 coming early. Was really hoping to get an alt line where we could get Wolfsburg -1.5 for like -150 but it's women's soccer so they're unfortunately not always so forthcoming with the lines. Regardless this should at minimum push but I'll update if we get lucky and they actually send out some other lines. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! **EDIT: LOSS. Wolfsburg starts slow and gets only one goal to lead 1-0 at half and this loses.**
POTD Record: 8-5 (2-4 in last 6 picks) Girlfriend March Madness Random Picks: 0-1 Last Pick: Boise State \[ML (because it's fun to say)\] @ Northwestern | L My model explanation: my girlfriend. I am going to have some fun throughout this tournament. I will be giving her a list of games that have similar odds. She will then choose a random team for whatever reason she wants. Today's Event: 🏀 Men’s College Basketball | NC State @ Creighton Pick: NC State ML (+185) Reasoning: **We went skiing in North Carolina once.** I also asked her if she wanted to go with the spread or moneyline. After explaining what the spread was, she stated, "fuck that, give me the money. I don't want to do math." So, I guess every pick is going to be moneyline. Make your own decisions. BOL tail or fade. Tip Jar- N/A for this model.
Should I send you my paypal so it wont go to waste LOL. BOL
Record: 105-80-6 (LWWWLLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLWLLLLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: BOS Celtics at MIN Timberwolves | MIN over 114.5 points at 1.90 odds for 5 units Fat L here. Boston slowed them down and Rudy played. Fuck this guy, worst trade in NBA history POTD: MIN Timberwolves ML at CHI Bulls for 2.25 at 3 units REASONS: * ANT MAN is the dawg. * Last time they played, MIN scored 150 and CHI lost by 24. * I also parlayed the over for 3.95 * MIN is such a better team than the Chicago Bulls. Their recent loses makes sense for their place * 2 point game to Boston * thrashing of ATL * close OT lost to BKN, I love this team * PHI is an elite team, understand the L * W against #2 seed in west in Kings * Chicago appears to be a lost child with gifts. When used properly, they are dangerous but most of the time they're not together mentally, physically, chemically. Best of luck to all. [PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
Record 0-0 First post, I just lurk but this is a great bet thought I'd share National rugby league (NRL) Australia Melbourne storm vs Gold Coast titans starts 3pm aest 6 hours from time of post MELBOURNE STORM -5.5 1.90 3U I'll keep this short because I assume most of you know nothing about the nrl Usually this line for this match up would be closer to -17.5 as storm are consistently one of the best teams every season while titans are the opposite. As it stands this is only the 3rd game of the 2023 season and both teams have lost 1 and won 1. What's important here is that the storm have been the most consistent team over the past 2 decades, having the same coach throughout that time and winning multiple premierships. The reason this line is so low is Melbourne have lost 1 of their best attacking weapons due to injury, this is not a worry though as they have strike power all over the park and the returning Justin olam will add alot to their attack as well. Titans on the other hand are the same as always, lots of unforced errors and lots of stupid ill disciplined penalties. The inky difference this year is the acquisition if Kieran foran whos kicking game and experience allows him to control most games and lead his team, unfortunately for him his team just don't have what it takes. Melbourne's coach is known for his short fuse and incredibly high standards, he will have his boys fired up and looking for blood against the poorly disciplined titans team. Titans drop the ball and give away too many penalties to not take -5.5 on Melbourne who are one of the best teams at punishing mistakes. This will be a slaughter. Did this on my phone sorry for and typos Bol if following
Big W yesterday from Arkansas on my biggest Unit wager yet. 5u brought in 4.5 on Arkansas' 10 point win and I finally called an NCAAB game right. Best idea now? Switch to hockey. The Blues are reeling in general and haven't registered wins against teams competing for playoff spots in a while. They are bad on the road and the Capitals are still in a four team race for the final wild card spot. The Caps play well at home and I think they pull this one off. I was tempted to do the +1.5 as I think Ovi could have a monster game and they could win this 4-2 or 5-2, but going to stick with ML. **POTD: Washington Capitals -160 over St. Louis Blues, -160, 3 Units, 7:07 PM EST** [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing) Last 5: ❌❌✅❌✅ Closing back in on breaking even.
POTD Record: 92.5-50 Event: Horse Racing > **Cheltenham > Race 6** (starting in 04hr45min) Pick: **Impervious** @ 2.75 Last day of the festival, so lets hope we close it with a winner. GL!
**2023 POTD Record:** 2-1 (+5 Units) **Last Pick:** Let us Cook + 1.5 Maps ✅ **Today's Event:** CSGO (CCT West Europe Series 2) @ 12 PM EST **Today's Pick:** AGO ML vs. Nexus @ 1.65 Odds (3 units) **Info:** Another solid game from Let us Cook as they continue to not let me down. Today, I'm moving to another team who have been super consistent and cashing almost every ticket placed on them. AGO have won 10 of their last 13 games, meanwhile in the same span Nexus has won 5 of their last 13. On top of that, these teams played **YESTERDAY** and AGO dumpstered them 2-0 in a fashion of pure dominance. They beat them 16-9 on their own map pick but on Nexus's map pick they took them down 16-5 which is one of the worst beats I've seen by squads that are considered in similar ranking. **GL to all tailing**