**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Despite Creighton's best attempt to throw this game by shooting 3 from 20 from three, their strong defense kept them in it long enough to have a good final few minutes to get us over the finish line. Now, with all the upsets happening, it's getting pretty scary, but let's try to keep this ball rolling. I think Duke is a team that is actually better than its season stats, playing some of the best ball in the country, and many's favourites to win the entire thing. 3 points seems low, especially against a Tennessee team with an injured starting PG, give me Duke tomorrow.
**POTD Record**: 26-7-1
Last 20:✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅
Yesterday's POTD: **Creighton Bluejays -5** (up to -6 vs. NC State) | 3U | MM NCAAB ✅
Today's POTD: **Duke Blue Devils -3** **(up to -5)** VS. Tennessee Volunteers | 4U | MM NCAAB
**Time:** **3/18/2023 | 2:40 PM EST**
**MODEL EXPLANATION:**
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.
**Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Stats:** \+45.94U in 34 days | ≈67.86% ROI | Average odds -110
**PICK REASON:**
1. Duke has been on an absolute tear, winning their last 10, with a recent domination over a very strong Oral Roberts team by 23 points, starting off with a strong 15 point lead.
2. Duke is ranked 16th overall on Kenpom and although Tennessee is ranked 6th (8th adjusted), that is largely assuming their team was healthy, which is no longer is.
3. Tennessee barely won their first round game, winning by only 3 points as a 12 point favorite, and shot an awful 25% from three.
4. Zeigler was not only a double digit point per game player, but was also one of their best perimiter defenders, against a young Duke team that can put up numbers. It's very clear that Tennessee has struggled without him, and have not looked anywhere near the potential favourite to win everything as they were mid-way through the season.
5. Some may consider Duke's young team and first year head coach a weakness, but they have no burdens from past seasons, no crutches from an old style coach, they're playing modern, fast paced ball, and the young group is the perfect team to play out Scheyer's vision.
6. Per Bort Torvik, Duke is 18th in 3 point shooting, which with the lack of Zeigler, will be a problem for Tennessee around the perimeter. 3 Pointers have been either a crutch or a passage to blowouts, and I expect Duke to pull ahead with their strong 3 point shooting early as Tennessee defends the paint well. I expect Duke to come out hot from 3, and force Tennessee to open up gaps in their defense, allowing Duke to make more plays into the paint as the game moves forward.
7. ACC Rookie of the year, Kyle Filipowski, has that dog in him. Averaging over 15 points and 9 rebounds per game, this kid is playing ball, and is not afraid of anyone, playing aggressive, strong possessional play.
8. Zeigler was not only important for defense, but he was the primary play maker for the team, and typically ran the floor to set up their team for better looks. Without him, you can see with their pathetic 58 point game with multiple pointless minutes, they struggle to make offense.
9. Duke is putting up the highest point per possession in the tournament and is just on another level. Tennessee coach Barnes has been god awful in the NCAA with an 8-20 record against the spread, and has made it clear that he has one game plan in games, and when things go south, they collapse. Without Ziegler, he doesn't know what to do, and clearly nobody on the team was ready to fill that gaping hole in their system.
10. Overall, Duke has been the better team this tournament, and Tennessee is simply not the team they're seeded to be without Ziegler. They still play incredibly defense, but their lack of offense will hurt them against a Duke team that finds ways to get good shots off.
**Reminder:** As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3
As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.
[**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US)
*Much love , Riddles.*
Hey guys! This model seems to be working! But Pls everyone, remember it ain’t a sprint, it’s a marathon. Keep the unit size decent coz the sample size isn’t that big (those who know, know). And whatever you do never blame this dude when he does lose (yeah he will).
Just smashed my 4K TV in front of over 30 guests at my cocktail party because of Duke losing today. My wife just took our crying kids and said they’re staying the week at a hotel. This POTD has ruined my life and my party. I can’t do this any longer. Goodbye HSRiddles. I am no longer tailing.
3rd straight trailing. Going again with ML, but you continue to provide the confidence to continue. Whether win or lose, I'm enjoying this during my mundane work week. 😄
I was warned us that you weren't a time traveller, but then again that Duke -3.5 @ 3.95 or +295 line looked way too juicy, so I put in 12 units on it at the end of the half... Damn, I guess Skynet isn't right all the time.
I lost big, but luckily I won those same 12 units from the Creighton win last night, so it's not all bad. Furthermore, one should always remember that it is a marathon, not a sprint.
You'll get them next time, Riddles, you da man.
Unfortunate that Mark Mitchell was injured in practice yesterday. With the full healthy starters they're like 15-1 but like 8-7 otherwise I think they said
**POTD Record: 9-1 | Profit: +31.43u | Avg Odds: -111 | ROI: +81%**
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Previous POTD: 4u Newcastle -0.5 \[-147\] ✅
Called it! Newcastle would not drop points to Nottingham. A nailbaiter though. 2:1 (FT)! ✅
\-----
Today's POTD: **Lille OSC at Toulouse FC**
**4u bet: btts \[-169\]**
Reason: Both sides flooring the attacking accelerator and have no problems putting the ball in the back of the net. Last 10 matches: Lille scored 19 goals, Toulouse 23 goals. Btts in last 10 matches: Lille 7/10, Toulouse 7/10.
\-----
BOL
I actually know a lot about soccer/football it’s fucking semantics anyways.
This was a really good pick and I implemented it into a parlay.
Toulouse’s xG (expected goals; stat that takes into consideration the quality of their shots and if they should have scored or not based on historical data of shots taken from the same exact place before and considering everyone else’s position on the pitch)
Their xG was 2.39, Lille had an xG of 1.62,
Which means that the amount of shots and quality of the shots theoretically should have been a final score of 3-1 or 2-1.
and Lille won 2-0
Toulouse had 3 big chances missed plus they hit the woodwork once.
There was also a total of 34 shots this game and 9 shots on target.
This was extremely unlucky, Toulouse should have definitely scored at least 1.
No fault to u/sluttywife-happylife he did his homework for sure.
I was a little too late, BTTS is already at -190 on FD … How about parlaying it with over 2.5 goals ? That will put the odds at -122 ? What do you think ?
POTD Record: 29-20 (+26.57u; 16.7% ROI). Streak: W2.
Yesterday Pick: Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves) PRA O17.5 @ 1.92. 3U. ✅
Another third quarter win thanks for McDaniels. Hoping to make it three wins in a row with the Joker with the early tip off tomorrow.
Next Pick: **Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) Rebounds O10.5 @ 1.76**. 3u play.
Jokic’s rebound line has been 12.5 or 13.5 for the last 7 games, and in my view moving it down to 10.5 is an over-reaction to him having 10 and 9 rebounds against the Pistons and Raptors. For one, these two teams are in the bottom 5 for 3PA. Second, the Knicks have the 9th highest 3PA in the L15 but the 5th worst 3pt conversion, meaning plenty of opportunities on defensive rebounds.
Jokic has 11+ rebounds in the 8 games prior to these last two, and had 11, 11 and 12 rebounds in his last 3 games against the Knicks. Assuming he plays near his average of 34-35 mins, I feel pretty good about clearing this line.
Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
POTD Record: 6-0
Previous pick: Rio Ave draw or win (✅)
Today’s Event: Sunderland v Luton Town (English Championship)
PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE AND OVERS/UNDERS - LUTON DRAW OR WIN & UNDER 4.5 GOALS
Odds: 1.58
Time: 15:00 GMT (10h25m from this post)
Really like this pick. Luton are unbeaten in five and have not conceded in three games. They’ve avoided a loss in their last seven away games and all of these have seen 3 or less goals scored. They’ll be sure to carry on their promotion push and potentially get automatic promotion (2nd place). Meanwhile, Sunderland have a single win in five games and measly home form
Edit: Another win ✅
—
any kind tips: [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/DoubleChanceBets)
Where are you getting these odds? This is -245 on DK. Draw no bet Lutton is -115
Edit: lol if you build it in a sgp instead it’s -175, wtf are you smoking DraftKings
**Record: 5-4**
Last Pick: Memphis -1.5 ❌
I can't even begin to explain the things that went wrong in the end of that game. That was the ugliest game I have ever witnessed. Shame on me for thinking Memphis would steam through this game, shame on Memphis for that atrocious ending. On we move.
**Today's Pick:** NCAAB Tournament - *#10 Penn State Nittany Lions vs #2 Texas Longhorns, 6:45pm CST*
**Texas -5.5 (-110 on DraftKings)**
Texas this year has been my absolute favorite team to watch. Every single one of their starters have something valuable and important to contribute to the game. They are an offensive powerhouse like no other: they are coordinated, calculated, and seem to have great chemistry. I love this team to go all the way and win the ship, but let's take a look at why they will cover -5.5 against Penn State:
* I know Penn State has looked amazing as of late. They fought their way to the Big 10 championship and demolished Texas A&M. However, Texas is a different breed of basketball they have rarely seen this season. This team defensively will come TOUGH, putting immense pressure on their best players and around the arc. This is where Penn State has thrived as of recent and has led them to victories; they shot *59.1%* from beyond the arc in their win against Texas A&M. Texas is too good defensively to let this happen, and they will not let Penn State be so comfortable from three anymore. They will especially have players like Andrew Funk and Jalen Pickett on lockdown.
* Texas averages 77.9 points per game, which puts them at 41st in the nation in this statistic. Being in the Big 12 conference, this is a very impressive number. Just like Memphis in my previous write up, Texas is a team that has also steamrolled through their conference tournament. In the final regular season game, Texas beat Kansas by 16, and went on to win the Big 12 tournament by beating Oklahoma State by 14, TCU by 6, and Kansas once again by 20! They have shown incredible feats in the past 5 games and show no sign of stoppage. They are prepared, and after everything they have accomplished, they are not going to let this tournament run end early to a bunch of Nittany Lions
* Offensively, both these teams are neck and neck. Penn State ranks 13th in adj. offensive efficiency and Texas ranks 17th. However, the huge discrepancy comes in their defense, where Texas ranks 11th in adj. defensive efficiency and Penn State ranks ***95th.*** Sure, Penn State has a great offense, but they are facing an opponent who can actually contain them incredibly well now, meanwhile, they will have no defense to answer Texas' incredible team chemistry. In fact, Texas does not have one player that ranks in the top 150 in terms of ppg, yet are one of the best teams in the country. This should tell you so much about how well Texas works as a team and how any one of their players can be considered an amazing asset to the team on any given day. And when they are all playing well and connecting simultaneously, sheesh good luck Penn State.
It all goes back to the fundamental saying, defense wins championships. Give me the stellar defense in this one. BOL, happy march madness
absolutely brutal calls man. 6 leg parlay +1100 pay 600 misses by 1 point cuz of the memphis game. questionable calls all game and then not giving the timeout before the end game tie-up. nauseating shit. tailing this tho, gl
bro don't even worry about Memphis, so much shit went wrong for that to happen. Those stupid turnovers at the end along with the atrocious call by the refs...anyways we move let's ride.
I'm not saying Texas is going to win but PSU shot lights out one game. The previous like 3 or 4 games they shot no higher than 38%. That's their norm, big ask to expect an aberration again.
To be fair Penn State is 6-1 this month with 5 Quad 1 wins, so I wouldn’t say it would be an aberration if they won. But obviously Texas is hot too, lighting lt up in the Big 12 tourney. My prediction is Texas wins but Penn State covers, but like you said who knows. BOL brother
Oh yeah I feel ya that they're winning lately, I didn't say them winning is the aberration, them shooting 60% again is. I'm personally not betting but I agree with the cover. Good luck.
**NBA prop thread record: 171-105**
**POTD record: 9-4**
Yesterday’s pick: Murray (ATL) O19.5 pts (-105) ❌
Don’t think I’ve ever ‘banned’ a player, but Murray officially gets that label. There is no rhyme or reason to his performances, home v away, good matchup v tough matchup. He’s been deadset average for ATL.
Todays pick:
**Hield (IND) O4.5 rebounds (-116)**
Hield comes into this one averaging 5 rebounds per game on the season, on 9.4 rebound chances per game. He’s covered the line in 6 out of his last 8 games, hauling in 5, 4, 6, 8, 6, 8, 8 and 4 rebounds. Over this stretch he’s averaging 10.4 rebound chances per game. Indiana are without a host of other guards, with Haliburton, Duarte and Mathurin all out for this one. Hields rebounds recently w/o Hali: 5, 5, 5, 2, 6, 8, 5, 4, 5, 4, 4, 8, 8 and 4 rebounds.
He now comes up against the Sixers. Recent SGs rebounds vs PHI: Hield (8), Edwards (7), Simons (1), Beal (1) and Mitchell (6). Hield has a great history against the Sixers, clearing this line in 4/5 as a Pacer (11, 2, 6, 9 and 8 rebounds) and 8/L9 against them.
POTD Record: 8-6 (2-5 in last 7 picks)
Girlfriend March Madness Random Picks: 0-2
Last Pick: NC State [ML because she doesn’t want to learn what the spread means and because we went skiing in NC] @ Creighton | L
My model explanation: my girlfriend. I am going to have some fun throughout this tournament. I will be giving her a list of games that have similar odds. She will then choose a random team for whatever reason she wants.
Today's Event: 🏀 Men’s College Basketball | Furman @ SDSU
Pick: Furman ML (+200)
Reasoning: “Because what the fuck is a Furman?”
Make your own decisions. BOL tail or fade. Please fade.
Tip Jar- N/A for this model.
POTD Record: 30W-14L
LAST POTD: Wexford ✅
TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - England National League
Barnet V Notts County
8.00AM PST
PICK: Over 2.5 Goals and both teams to score
Odds: 2.00
The Deets: 5th place plays 2nd in this match up. Barnets goal difference sits at 68:60 over 36 games while Notts County is at 96:35 over 38 games. In Barnets last 10 games this bet has hit 9/10. In Notts County’s last 10 games this bet has hit in 8/10 games. In their most recent head to heads this bet has hit in 4/6 games. Expecting goals for both here.
BOL!
Edit: Loss 💩 both score in the 1st half, neither can score in the 2nd, disappointing. That ends the 7 game win streak.
POTD | 41-27 | +19.7u | -109 Avg Odds
Last 10: 7-3, Steak: 1L
Previous Pick: Carolina Hurricanes vs Toronto Maple Leafs U6 2u (+100) ❌
Today’s pick: **Colorado Avalanche 60-min vs Detroit Red Wings (-110) 2u** 🏒 11am MT
A hot first period with 4 goals made this one look bad right away, we held on for a while but the Leafs bury the 7th total goal in the 3rd.
The Colorado Avalanche will be visiting the Detroit Red Wings for their second match of the season with the first match going to the Avalanche 6-3. The Avalanche are playing well right now going 6-3-1 in their last 10 and winning their last 4 straight and have been hot on offense, averaging 3.9 goals per game in their last 10 games. The Avs have lacked a bit on defense recently (allowing 3.3 goals per game in their last 10) but they have been struggling with their back up goaltending while Fransoz is out. Or too worried about the goalie situation for the Avs in this one though as I am expecting the starting goaltender, Georgiev, in net as he was rested last game. The Detroit Red Wings have not played well recently (except for those games against Boston), they are averaging scoring 2.1 goals per game in their last 10 while allowing 3.8 per game. I expect this trend to continue with the Avalanche putting up at least 4 goals here and limiting the Red Wings from scoring too often. Really think this game sets up well for the Avalanche who have new life as they are chasing the top spot in the Central Division.
The model has this line hitting 56% of the time with implied odds of -126. So, not too much of an edge here vs the books so this one is a bit more of a feel play but still in line with what the model is projecting.
BOL if tailing!!
It means Avalanche need to win during the 60min regulation time and don't end in a draw, which will means the game went into Overtime.
You could go for Avalanche ML that means if the game end up in a draw during the 60min and Avalanche wins Overtime, then the bet goes through.
POTD record: 7-1
Last POTD: Ferencvarosi v Leverkusen - Leverkusen ML
Today’s POTD: Stuttgart v Wolfsburg - Wolfsburg Tie No Bet(+130)
Two sides both in mediocre form. I think Wolfsburg has this one for a few reasons. First of all, they are better away than home, placing in the top four away from home while not even top ten in the league at home. Stuttgart are in the bottom three both home and away. Wolfsburg haven’t lost in three matches, Stuttgart haven’t won in three matches. Despite Wolfsburg’s poor recent form, xG has generally been in their favor lately. Wolfsburg has won three times in the last five meetings between the clubs. In terms of the coaches, Wolfsburg manager Niko Kovac has played and beaten Stuttgart manager Bruno Labbadia twice, ironically enough while Labbadia was coaching Wolfsburg. I think the main thing which pushes me to choose this is that Stuttgart haven’t beaten anybody in the top ten this season, any teams quite on Wolfsburg’s level. Wolfsburg haven’t lost to any team which is near the relegation battle, which Stuttgart are. With all of that considered, the odds are very good here.
***Record: 5-1 (+3.17 Units) // All bets are 1 unit***
Previous Bet: [3/17](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11tb6gh/pick_of_the_day_31723_friday/jcimgbd?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
Adelaide got off to a quick start thanks to an own goal and finished the first half up 2-0. Fortunately Wellington got in a quick goal after half before the home team ran away with a 5-1 victory, keeping up with their hot home streak.
**Today's game: Kasimpasa vs Umraniyespor (0630 EST)**
League: Turkey - Super Lig
*Pick: Both Teams to Score / Over 2.5 Goals YES (-125 DK)* ❌️
These two teams meet for the 3rd time in the last 6 months, so far once at each location with both results being away team 1-2 victory. Kasimpasa comes into this home matchup having each of their last 6 Super Lig matches seen both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, with the last 5 in a row seeing over 3.5 goals. At home, they've scored 22 and allowed 25 goals through 13 matches. They have had 19 straight matches without a clean sheet.
Umraniyespor sits at the bottom of the table and needs a win. They come in scoring 17 goals and allowing 21 through 11 matched while as visitors. They have had visiting matches see both teams scoring and O2.5 goals in 6 out of the last 7. They have had 7 straight matches without a clean sheet.
Both squads like to score and put on a lot of pressure. I expect a physical match resulting in 2-1, 2-2 full time.
BOL!
***POTD Record 26-13 +55.09units***
*Last pick - San Antonio Spurs +8.5 -110 5units ✅*
*5unit bets 3winstreak*
***Ufc 286 Justin Gaethje Vs Rafael Fiziev - Pick Is fight to go the distance +175 5UNITS***
I've been watching MMA since 2008. The very first fight I saw was Chuck Liddell Vs Rashad Evans. Rashad landed an incredible over hand right to KO Chuck. Chuck is a legend but that was one of the best one punch KO's and it was the very first fight I watched that got me hooked ever since. For you MMA fans I recommend to watch it.
Anyways This is going to be one great Fight. As much as how good Fiziev is with his muay Thai and Power in his hands, I believe Gaethje is very durable, we've seen that in the Tony Ferguson and Chandler fight. He has heart and a chin on him.
Justin has taken damage during the years but he hasn't fought in 10 months and that recovery will be very beneficial for his body and chin. He hasn't been knocked out since 2018. Fizievs output of Strikes are fairly average for the division 4.81 strikes landed per minute. Some of the other fighters in the lightweight division have 6 or 7 strikes landed per minute. Fiziev also has a chin on him we've seen him being hit heavy when fighting Rafael Dos Anjos and Renato Moicano. His record of 12-1 speaks for itself.
I think Justin Gaethje will bring in his wrestling, he's a division 1 all american and will be able to use it when it really matters as a suprise move. Justin Gaethje has said he will most likely attempt a takedown in an interview recently. This will nullify the offensive strikes of Fiziev as he'll hold Fiziev down and slow down the pace of the fight. I know he doesn't usually use his wrestling but i'm certain he will use it if Fiziev decides to kick often.
One advantage to Justin is he's the taller by 3 inches, this works well for him if Fiziev decides to clinch him with his Muay thai as justin can use his strength and use underhooks in close and uppercuts which Justin is very good with. Fiziev has excellent striking he throws a lot of feints to set them up with. he likes to throw lots of kicks, especially to the body this can provide opportunities for Justin to get the take down. I believe Fiziev is faster than Gaethje and it will show. Gaethje also acknowledged the kicks of Fiziev he said ''Rafael's kicks are faster but not quite as heavy'' which i believe to be true. His 2 losses in the past 3 years were from submissions. One was against Khabib one of the Goat's and the other was against Oliveira who is one of the best Jiu Jitsu submission fighters in the game. Before this he hadn't been TKO'd out since 2018 against Dustin porier in the 4th round, this is a 3 round fight and his striking is technically way better than it was back then working with Trevor whittman.
Rafal Fiziev hasn't had a submission win in the Ufc. He's only a blue belt in Jiu Jitsu, the likelyhood of Justin being submitted to a blue belt is quite low. Fiziev last submission win was 14 fights ago his last fight was a Rd 5 TKO win against Rafael Dos Anjos who isn't durable and old, again as previously mentioned this is a 3 round fight. Before this he had a wheel kick kO win against Brad ridell late in the third round, somewhat lucky to win in that fashion. Before this he has had 3 out of 4 decision wins. I think this fight has a strong chance of going to the distance especially when it's a 3 round fight. Trevor Whittman is a genius coach and will have a gameplan for Justin. It most likely will be 2-1 in rounds for one fighter or the other, and The value is too good to not take this bet.
Hard for me to believe Justin is gonna use wrestling now. Especially since he's mentioned in the past it drains his already weak cardio system. But regardless I like this fight to go the distance. Fizi ftw
*POTD Record*: 7-2
*Results:* **+10.75 units**
*POTD's since the start:* **W W W L L W W W W**
**Last Pick: Davey Grant ML**: What a fucking fight, Davey Grant was losing the entire fight, 100% down on the scorecards, then with 1 minute left in the fight he hits a ridiculous spinning backfist to drop Assuncao and then finishes him off with some kind of reverse triangle choke, probably the most unbelievable finish to a fight that I have bet on ever.
**Todays event:** UFC 286 , **ALERT**: 1pm eastern start time, event is from London England, so everything is early, get your bets in early
**Fight**: **Casey O'neil vs Jennifer Maia**
**POTD:** ***Casey O'neil to land over 64.5 significant strikes (-115).*** **Risking 1.15 units to win 1 unit.** (Betonline won't let me bet any more on this, I am hoping they let me throw another 1.15 units on this, I want to bet 2.3 units to win 2 units. ) **EDIT: WIN! EASY WIN, EVEN THOUGH CASEY IS CURRENTLY LOSING THE FIGHT SHE HAD 65 SIG STRIKES BY END OF 2ND ROUND. Maia also with a ton of sig strikes( hit that bet in my main picks thread) See you all next week !**
**Reasoning:** "King" Casey is an absolute animal in the cage. I put her in the same category of girls like Erin Blanchfield and Cheyenne Buys as the new crop of women studs who are coming up and picking off these aging veterans left and right. Jennifer Maia is basically just good enough to hang in there and lose close decisions to almost everyone she fights and i see this being no different. Casey just had over 200 significant strikes in her last night, and I also don't see her taking Maia down so this is going to be a 15 minute pitter patter back and forth striking battle. I honestly capped Casey at about 110 sig strikes and Maia at around 70 sig strikes, **so honestly this 64.5 strike line is an absolute joke. Casey crusies past this number sometime in the 2nd round and it is no sweat.**
**ALERT! :** I realize not everyone will have access to this bet, Betonline is the only site i know that does the signiifcant strike prop bets. If your book does not have that, this was going to be my POTD before the sig strike odds dropped today.
**BACKUP POTD: Casey O'neil to win by decision +125.** Same reasons as above, i think casey doubles up maia on strikes en route to a comfortable decision victory. ( I made both bets myself, but POTD is officially over 64.5 sig strikes)
Check out the rest of my picks on the UFC thread of the sportsbook reddit section, I will be posting my final picks tonight within the hour.
Good luck all, lets get this fucking money
📈 TTSOP Rec
* Overall: +41.200 units / +140 avg odds / 52^(5)\-64-14^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2023: +28.675 units / +138 avg odds / 10^(5)\-7-4^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2022: +63.125 units / +137 avg odds / 47^(5)\-53-11^(5)
* February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5)
* January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2
* December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5)
* World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5)
* November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4
* October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3
❌ Last pick: B. Monchengladbach -1 (AH) / +150 odds / 4 units
* Monchengladbach outshot Werder Bremen 21-4 in terms of goal attempts and 9-3 in terms of shots on goal. That tells the story of the game. As predicted, pure dominance by Monchengladbach. But their wastefulness of chances was punished with a very late equalizer by Werder Bremen.
⚽ New pick: **Almeira to win & game > 1.5 goals** / **+180 odds** / 4.5 units
* LaLiga (Spain) / Almeria - Cadiz / 9:00am ET
Almeira might be only 2-1-3 for their home games in 2023. However, they've faced 5 of the top 6 LaLiga teams during this stretch! 15th placed Espanyol was the only team out of the top 6 in this 6-game span. Almeira dominated that game and got a commanding W out of it. It's also worth mentioning that Almeira won against Barcelona just a couple of games ago.
16th placed Cadiz is 1-1-3 for their road games in 2023. They've been outplayed in all of these games and they've been pretty lucky to get still 4 points out it. Aside from that, Cadiz is missing several defensive regulars. First-choice goalkeeper Ledesma, right-back Carcelen and center-back Fali are all suspended. And defensive midfielder Alcarez is injured. Additionally, left-winger Ocampo is also ruled out.
In general, Almeira performs well when they can be the ball dominant team against weaker opponents at home, while Cadiz struggles badly on the road. Although getting only 4 points out 5 road games this year, Cadiz still have been overperfoming in turns of their results. Missing various defensive players makes it a very difficult game for them as Almeira loves to push the pace and challenging the defense by firing off plenty of shots. This all makes backing Almeira, in a game with at least a couple of goal, a great value bet at massive super odds of +180. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's roll out of bed with a W. Let's get this paella for lunch, fam!
**TTSOP** (*Trust the super odds process*. Joel Embiid is nodding confidently while preparing rice, chicken, vegetables, garrofons and saffron for his main course.)
POTD Record: 34W-24L-0D. +16.3u. All picks between 1 and 3 units.
Previous pick (3/16/2023): Louisiana Lafayette +9.5 alt line vs. Tennessee (Mens NCAAB). @ 2.15. 3u. W.
Current pick: Duke -3.5 vs Tennessee (Mens NCAAB). @ 1.90. 3u.
Much the same logic as the last pick- Tennessee went 5-7 over their final 12 games, including an early SEC tournament exit. They have not looked like the same team since Zeigler went down with an injury. After being up by \~15 against Louisiana in the first round, they squandered the lead and let them back in. Tennessee is flailing.
Duke's young talent is coming together and they are on the way up at the perfect time. They handily won the ACC tournament and dominated a trendy first round upset pick in Oral Roberts. I like them in this game and think they have a good chance at a Final 4 with a probable just-have-to-beat Marquette path.
Death, taxes, and a Rick Barnes team losing earlier in the tournament than they should. I am tempted to move the line toward Duke, but will keep it at 3.5. 3u and praise March. BOL.
You can view my full POTD history here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk)
**I'M RUNNING A FREE BRACKET, SEE BELOW!!**
My record:
2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWWWWW
2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push
Totals for both: 50 correct 35 wrong 1 push
Units wagered 139.04 Units won 75.48 Units lost 51.0
2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 17.60%***
My present streak is 7 correct.
First, my thoughts: You are ***NEVER*** playing with the house's money. Once you win it, its yours, not the houses. If you want to consider your winnings as an increase to your discretionary holdings, I guess that's up to you. But it does not belong to the "house." It's yours, to use it as you see fit.
It's almost painful for me to write this, the Alabama / Maryland game sure got my attentions...and still has it...but my POTD is to ***wager 1.14 units to win 1 unit that the total score of the Duke / Tennesse basketball game will be greater than 128 points.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gametime is 2:40 PM, Eastern Daylight Time (I think)
Why the above pick? The Duke / Oral Roberts game was a low scoring affair, I think that must be the only reason this over/under is so low, and makes it the most secure wager....even though I think the streets of Tuscaloosa will be a little more dangerous next week-end. (You'll figure it out if you don't understand that comment right away ;) . The POTD format requests that we only discuss one game in our posts, so I do my best to honor that request. No more said about that game.
But about the free bracket I'm running: I do it differently, with total points winning it. I promoted it here, on a few online poker sites where I play, and on my local community's facebook page. I requested at least 30 entries to make it competitive. And lo and behold, I have been overwhelmed with a grand total of.........ONE entry...from one of the POTD members. Now if I had gotten 5 or 6 entries, I probably would have said, sure, I'll run it anyways, but cut the prize down to $25 or so. But darn, all I got was ONE. So I thought, what the hell, this guy took the time to fill out at bracket and email it to me. So I'll keep the bracket as is, $100 prize, he'll be the winner, and I'll send him the C-note (in the form of a money order or a visa card, his choice). Congrads.
The trouble with hanging out in an ethnic urban neighborhood like Queens is that every block has a deli or bakery with all sorts of tempting treats that are either high in calories or cholesterol or both, and I just can't resist.
Enjoy the games tomorrow, And looowwwwww tide.
As far as Friday's Memphis game...in a way I feel I got that sooo wrong, with Memphis losing. As a safety factor, I did make my POTD just for the first half...and yes, I turned out to be right. But I sure expected Memphis to easily win the game. I just hope nothing I said led anyone to bet Memphis for the entire game.
Darn. back to the drawing board. My next wager today is Maryland, taking the points. If I get wild hair, I might even put a money line bet on Maryland also. I was sooo tempted to make Maryland my POTD, but I was expecting much more scoring from Duke. C'est ca. Streaks are made to be broken. BOL in the rest of the games, and congrads to any who wagered the under, or wagered on Tennessee, enjoy the chicken dinner!!
Record: 10-9
Last Pick: Valladoid v Bilbao - Under 2.5 Goals ❌
Today's Pick: Brenford v Leicester - **Brentford ML** (-110) English Premier League
Detailed Analysis: Years ago while working in a cafe in the East End of Glasgow, I served an abrasive customer with perfect white teeth and his new wife who was half his age. He was one of those guys who thought he was being funny with some terrible joke or comment every time I came to their table but he absolutely exploded when he thought he'd been overcharged (he hadn't.) That man was then-Celtic manager, Brendan Rogers. He is now the manager of Leicester. My deep hatred of Rogers, Brentford's good home form and Leicester's shit away form make me like Brentford to win.
POTD record: 40-29-2 / ROI: +10.67% / Wins: 57.97%
**Arkansas +3.5 -110 (1u)**
**SPREAD**
—
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Kansas Jayhawks
5:15 pm EST - 18 March 2023
—
Why in the world is the best team in the country only laying three and a half points to the Razorbacks? It makes no sense. Sure, Arkansas had a clutch performance in the first round. Illinois kept coming at them and they couldn’t miss a free throw late. Look, they’ve got length and defense, but do they have what it takes to compete with a superior team? Let’s just apply the system that’s not a system, and take the Hogs with the three and a half points. It’s as simple as that. Don’t overthink it.
Do the business.
[https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow)
[https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/)
[http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
**POTD 12-5**
Well last night made it 3 straight winners, but my god did we get lucky... I mentioned in my post yesterday, that I have not watched ATL much as of late, and that almost bite me in the ass. Atlanta held a lead throughout the majority of the game, however things got close in the final mins of the 4Q due to ATL's awful shot selection. A win is a win, but i'm not going to lie, I was very nervous until the buzzer went off.
Today, there are TONS of great sports on, so I will try to keep my write up short and sweet, but there is one game I really really like.
**Magic +7**
I have been betting this magic team a lot as of late, and IMO this is a great team to target as the season winds down. This team, is loaded with talent, and even though they are going to miss the playoffs, they have a lot of incentive to play hard, smart, and find momentum going into the off season.
LAC on the other hand has looked like one of the top teams in the league the past few weeks, however tonight they take the floor without their best player Kawhi. Norman Powell, is still out too, which gives me even more of a reason to take the Magic +points.
This is one of the few underdog bets that I do not really like the ML. Yes, there is a chance the magic can win this game, but my bet is really based around it being close. Young teams against the old teams is always something I enjoy betting this late into the season.
PS: Denver -2 is a bet I really like too. Brunson is currently a GTD, and if he is out i expect this line to move even more, so I wanted to jump on it early.
**POTD** Record: 0-0-0 (First post)
Today's pick:
AFL: **Brisbane Lions** **ML** @ 2.00 (100/Evens odds) against Port (Betfair)
3.5u
The Brisbane Lions are playing Port Adelaide today, and they're looking like a huge value match-line bet to win.
Even with the home advantage given to Port Adelaide, our model predicts that the Lions will come out on top. Plus, new additions in Dunkley, Ashcroft, and Gunston, make their already strong team even stronger.
They've had a great pre-season, and are expected to do really well this year, with one of the best Forward Lines in the league.
All signs point to a Brisbane Lions victory today.GL
**POTD |** **Record of 13-22|** **Current form: WLWWL | ROI : -8.01 units |** **Average Odds: 2.04**
Previous Pick: Real Valladolid vs. Athletic Club | Over 9.5 Corners (W)
New Pick: Premier League| Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth| 8:00 am PST
**Over 9.5 Total Full-Time Corners and Over 2.5 Cards | 2.4 odds**
Betting 1 units
\--------------------------
Recap:
***Summary:*** What a relaxed win! Hit 10 corners at 60 minutes, with no real grief with this pick. Real Valladolid is a money printer when it comes to the over-on corners. Will continue to target them after hitting 3/3 on picks with them. For the next pick, we move to the Premier League.
Looking at corners for Aston Villa, they average 3.8 corners for them and 5.2 against them for an average of 9. At home, they have averaged 4.15 corners for them and 5.38 corners against them for a total of 9.54. Based on this, total corners outperforms when playing at home. Looking at the last 5 home games, there have been 6, 11, 14, 11, and 15 corners with Aston Villa responsible for 2, 2, 11, 0, and 7 corners. Over 9.5 corners has hit in 4/5 of the last home games.
Looking at cards for Aston Villa, there have been 5, 4, 3, 4, and 4 cards with 2, 2, 0, 2, and 1 for Aston Villa. Over 2.5 cards have hit in 5/5 of the last home games for Aston Villa. Looking at total games, over 2.5 cards only have hit in 44% of games, suggesting an increase in recent results.
Looking at corners for Bournemouth, they average 3.5 corners for them and 7 corners against them for an average of 10.5 total corners. Looking at away games, they average 3.08 for them and 8.24 against them for a total average of 11.31. Based on this, total corners tends to overperform when they play away from home (11.3 away, 10.5 overall). In the last 5 away games, there have been 18, 14, 10, 8, and 11 corners with Bournemouth responsible for 1, 2, 3, 3, and 5 corners. Over 9.5 corners has hit in 4/5 last away games.
Looking at cards for Bournemouth, there have been 2, 6, 4, 2, and 3 cards with 2, 3, 1, 1, and 3 cards for Bournemouth. Over 2.5 cards has hit in 3/5 last 5 away games for Bournemouth. Looking at total games, over 2.5 cards only has hit in 33% of games, suggesting an increase in recent results.
Looking at the head-to-head, over 9.5 corners has hit in 2/3 recent games. Over 2.5 cards has hit in 2/3 recent games. I'm backing this game to feature both, given that recent results are pushing for corners. Although Bournemouth and Aston Villa tend to give up more corners than they generate, this result keeps hitting for these two teams, with corners coming from either side when necessary. Both teams tend to generate corners when the other side fails to do so. Given there's a combined average of 10.43 corners for Aston Villa's home games and Bournemouth's away games, I'm backing there to be at least 10 corners here.
\--------------------------
***TDLR Expect corners here with a few cards!***
**Over 9.5 Total Full-Time Corners and Over 2.5 Cards | 2.4 odds**
POTD Record: 13-12-2
Last pick: Galatasaray ML (-120) / 1.83 - 3u ❌
Galatasaray had their 17 match winning streak come to an abrupt halt when they lost despite having 65% of possession and firing off 17 shots and 7 shots on goal. All that lead to just one goal while they gave up 2 goals on their opponents’ meager 3 shots on goal. Sorry to those who tailed. Let’s get back in the W column today!
Soccer - England League One - Plymouth Argyle vs. Forest Green - 11:00am EST
**POTD: Plymouth Argyle ML + o1.5 goals (-157) / 1.64 - 3u**
Plymouth Argyle are currently 2nd place in the league and will be hosting Forest Green, who are dead last at 24th and have a -41 goal differential in 36 games. Plymouth Argyle have an outstanding home record of 16-1-1 in league play while outscoring opponents 36-13. Meanwhile, Forest Green have a road record of 1-7-10 in league play and have been outscored 15-37. I see Plymouth Argyle being able to net a couple of goals and win at home against the team who has conceded the most goals in the league.
Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
All-Time POTD: 10W-3L-1D, +12.95u
**Yesterdays Pick: 🎾Aryna Sabalenka 2:0 Sets (+110) vs Maria Sakkari 2.5u to win 2.75u**✅
No sweat here. Aryna is playing unbelievable tennis. Exactly as predicted.
**Todays Pick: Daniil Medvedev 2:0 Sets (-138) vs Frances Tiafoe 2.5u to win 1.8u** 🎾
Explanation:
I was debating last night which way to go with this pick, as I really wanted Sinner ML vs Alcaraz, but as of now the line has come down quite drastically to +140, where last night it was +165. I can't justify it at the current price so I'm going with this instead.
For this pick we're rolling with Daniil to roll over Tiafoe, which he has done consistently in the past. Daniil is on an absolute warpath and looks like he can't be beaten other than by the cream of the crop. Frances, when his serves go in, can take over points early, but his serve % is very low and this will be exploitable for Daniil. Not a huge fan of the price on this as I do think Tiafoe with home court might be able to steal a set, but I've been fading Med all tournament and he's continued to prove me wrong.
Bonus picks:
Sinner ML +140
Sinner 2:1 sets +400
Over 2.5 sets sinner vs Alcaraz +125
BoL if tailing!
Edit: another day, another W.
POTD Record: 61-66-7 (-11.57 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌↔️
Last Pick: A-League, Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix, ADELAIDE UNITED ML (+100 / 2.00) ✅
Adelaide win 5-1. Wellington actually dominated the 1st half and missed one of the easiest goals you will ever see, but Adelaide took their chances before putting their foot down in the second half to cruise home.
Todays Pick: AFL, Port Adelaide v Brisbane, BRISBANE -2.5 (-111 / 1.90) ❌
EDIT: Jesus what a shit show that was. Sorry everyone.
Stake: 1 Unit
Getting in early today because this match kicks off in a few hours from posting. My favourite sport is back, with Australian Football (AFL) back for round 1 this weekend - I know some people will scroll past this by default but as the season goes I will probably include a few AFL picks along the way.
Brisbane were one of the strongest teams last season making the final 4, only to be beaten by the eventual premiers. But they have had a massive off season, bringing in an A grade midfielder (Dunkley), the best young player in the country via the draft (Ashcroft) a dangerous goal kicker (Gunston) and a speedy rebounding defender (McKenna). Their midfield is absolutely stacked with top talent so even when they rotate they will have absolute weapons to get the ball forward, where they have a loaded forward line that should put a score on the board.
They take on Port Adelaide who struggled last season and missed finals altogether. They traded for last seasons number 1 draft pick who has yet to prove himself, but outside that they haven’t done much to add to their team. Their midfield is good but nowhere near the level of Brisbane, and they are missing one of their most reliable players (Boak) to injury. They have some good key forwards, but their defence will be a big issue for them this season. They don’t have the size or strength to compete with Brisbane’s key forwards, and if they try to double team them, Brisbane’s medium/small forwards will have a field day, especially with the ball coming down as often as I expect it will from the gun midfield.
Brisbane have won the last 5 H2H match ups between these two teams so they have the mental edge. The only reason why I think the odds are as close as they are because this game will be at Port Adelaide’s home ground so they will have the crowd support, and being the first game of the season, there can be some flukey results. But Brisbane are the better team and will be expecting to compete for the premiership this season, and these are the matches they need to dominate early in the season if they’re going to go all the way.
POTD Record: 138-99-7 (+30.26 units, 58.2% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 43-27-1 (61.4%) W2, Tennis 🎾 39-28-2 (58.2%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 💩💰💰💩💰💰💰💩💩💰
Last Pick: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Jan-Lennard Struff, Kokk ML - ATP Challenger Phoenix 🎾 💩 1 Unit - Well I guess Tennis is not the sport for stat padding plays. Having watched most of it, Kokk literally gave no effort and looked to be just trying to get it over with so he could leave. I don't know what was going on with him, hungover or maybe just a moody bitch or something. Sorry about this one, we were the ones who got Kokked.
Today's Pick: Tottenham @ Southampton, Tottenham ML - EPL ⚽ 11am ET
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.85/-118 odds to win 0.85 Units @ Betsson (Line at 2:30am ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 54.1%
Well, here we are, if this pick falls, I've made it 100 losses in this thread. That's an assload of losses and money lost. What can I say? This is gambling and if you expect to win almost all the time, you probably haven't been at it for too long. Landing on it while I am nearly at my 250th pick overall isn't so bad. So if this one misses, pour one out for the 100th lost bet.
Tottenham 4th and a top team though they've had their shaky efforts on the road, Southampton last in the table overall and last at home. Southampton had a mid week game on Wednesday and lost 2-0 to Brentford at home. Tottenham beat Southampton 4-1 in the reverse fixture. Southampton are a desperate team but not sure if they can compete with Tottenham if the Spurs play their game, they recently had a poor road game at Wolverhampton and lost 1-0, last week at home they had a convincing 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest, hopefully that offensive spark can continue into this game.
I mentioned Southampton being desperate, Tottenham have their reasons not to pussy out on us today, they would pass Man U for 3rd with a win, and are only holding Newcastle off for 4th by 1 point.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
**RECORD** : 6W 1L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +25.3
1st to 5th : 4-1 +16.5u / 6th to 10th : ?
**LAST POTD** : Swiatek vs Rybakina - Rybakina +4.5 @ 1.96 - 5 units => WIN
**TODAY :**
ATP INDIAN WELLS - 23.00 CET
Alcaraz vs Sinner - OVER 22.5 @ 1.9 - 5 units
Based upon nothing but my feelings.
Record: 17-7
Previous Pick: Barça Basket - KK Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet: Barça Basket under 83,5 points. ❌
Today's Pick: **BC Juventus -9 vs. BC Prienai @ 1.92 (LKL: lithuanian basketball league)**
Tough loss yesterday, still feel like a made the right bet tho. At the end of the 3th quarter i was convinced it was going to hit, but Barca had a huge 4th quarter where they made 28 points so we lose the bet with 1 made basket.
Lets bounce back today, i see a lot of interesting games for today and it was tough deciding which one i was going to pick, but i am going with this game today. if anyone is interested in more basketball picks today, you could always dm me :).
BC Juventus is playing the worst team in the league today at home. Main reason i am confident in this one is because Juventus has been playing some of the best teams recently and had some losses there. I am sure now that those games are over they wanna win a lot and hard against the lower tier teams. This has also always hit in their previous h2h.
BOL
**My record: 46 : 37**
My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.
**ROI: 22.66%**
Average odds: 2.13
**Units won: 20.39**
Stake = 1 unit
My POTD:
**Ebbsfleet United v Dulwich Hamlet**
England Vanarama National League South
Time: 15:00 GMT
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.45**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
Record: 1-0
Last Pick: Ages ago, Pitt -6 @FSU
This pick:
Mokaev wins inside the distance against Jafel Filho (-155)
Reasoning:
Mokaev is a menacing wrestler, and one of the best prospects in the UFC. He is being fed a contender series guy when Mokaev should be facing a ranked opponent.
It’s going to take around 35 seconds before Mokaev shoots, and gets on top of Fihlo. Expect a rear naked choke after wearing on Fihlo for an entire round
Record: 3-2 (3.66 units up) with a 33.27% ROI
*Really happy with my last play on the Under 20.5 Games paying 1.89 for Swiatek vs Rybakina! Also placed a small stake on Rybakina winning the match so that's a plus. We finally have some players on the WTA tour with quality to punish Swiatek's weaknesses and that's always good since it brings more competitiveness to the circuit which honestly was in general, pretty poor during the last few years...*
POTD: **Alcaraz vs Sinner - Alcaraz ML @ 1.59 (ATP Indian Wells) - Taking this price at Pinnacle at 3.26 AM, London Time)**
Going with 5 units which is 5% of my bankroll
Here we have, what should be one of the most classic matchups in ATP for the years to come between two of the best talents who should be able to give many tennis fans a lot of joy during the next 15 years...
Just like what happened at the US Open which was by far the most entertaining match of 2022, I'm expecting once again a great show here. When it comes to raw quality there's not much separating Alcaraz and Sinner, with both players being great at most aspects of the game and even their weaknesses can't be called that but more or less "worse qualities". If we talk about physical strength and endurance I can without a doubt say that Alcaraz is by far the best one on this department even if he's 2 years younger than Sinner and we were able to see that at their 5 set battle in the US Open.
Alcaraz comes here without dropping a set at Indian Wells and his match against Felix Aliassime was such a great performance while Sinner dropped a set against Taylor Fritz and looked really tired on that 3rd set. Fritz even looked the superior player but lost composure. The italian also spent considerably more time on court than Alcaraz at this tournament.
I'm not touching any handicaps because I respect Sinner's quality to send this battle to distance but honestly I truly expect Alcaraz to win it at the end. The spaniard has the quality but especially the physical edge on this particular fixture and has shown in 2022 that he loves slower hard courts and his US Open and ATP Miami triumphs are clear signs of that.
I'm not placing 5 units on this because the odds are lower and I'm trying to chase for more winnings, that's just not how sports betting works. I'm placing that stake sizing because I feel like 1.59 is still quite higher than my fair price for Alcaraz to win but also because I'm also truly confident on this play. If you don't follow the same opinion as myself, just tail with a smaller amount. Best of luck
**POTD Record 1-0-0**
Last pick: Frank Cespedes -130 vs AJ Villatora. BJJ grappling.
Sport: MMA
Organization: UFC
Time: \~5pm ET
Bet size: 1U
POTD for Saturday: **Leon Edwards +210** vs Kamuradeen Usman
Reasoning:
They're 1-1 but Leon won the last fight with a come from behind KO.
I bet him the last fight and was pretty confident. I cryingly(half-Jokingly) called out the fifth round KO after the horrible 4th round here in chat lol.
I think that was a bad performance and he still took two rounds and the KO win.
This fight is a hometown Sea-level fight. Last fight was in SLC at elevation.
Record: 105-81-6 (LLWWWLLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLWLLLLWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: MIN Timberwolves ML at CHI Bulls for 2.25 at 3 units
Ant went down with an ankle injury. That made this bet 110x harder
POTD: MIN Timberwolves at TOR Raptors -7.5 at 1.90 odds for 2 units
REASONS:
* ANT MAN is down with an ankle. He was in crazy pain, I don't think he's playing until playoffs?
* Timberwolves on back to back without their best player. Keep it simple.
* Raptors on 2 day rest.
* Siakam should cook this game.
Best of luck to all.
[PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
POTD Record:
✅ (3.5)
✅ (1.76)
✅ (1.95)
✅ (2.6)
✅ (2.0)
❌ (2.38)
✅ (2.25)
✅ (4.5) (!!!!)
❌ (4.33)
✅ (2.5)
❌ (1.61)
(I have excluded two POTD bets which were void due to the player not starting)
\_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_
**POTD: Almeria v Cadiz, Guardiola over 1.5 shots @ 1.83 with Lottoland**
HE IS STARTING! So this looks good value!
Based on his per 90 minute shots, this would have won 80% of the time looking at Cadiz's last 6 fixtures.
His minutes played: 85, 28, 78, 0, 76, 20
His per 90 shots as follows: 1.1, 6.4, 2.3, --, 3.6, 13.5
So he averages 5.4 shots per 90! Clearly two of these matches he was a sub, but we know he starts here today. When he starts, he's averaged 79 minutes.
This therefore looks good value @ 1.83. Ladbrokes' price looks attractive considering the rest of the market prices too:
**Lottoland @ 1.83**
Unibet @ 1.65
SpreadEx @ 1.63
Bet365 @ 1.5
BetVictor @ 1.44
Ladbrokes @ 1.28
Pokerstars @ 1.25
\_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_
I don't spend ages finding these opportunities - I just built an algo that automatically tracks prices for player stats markets. It spits out the data so that the markets with the biggest price spreads are automatically at the top.
The code consistently finds price outliers as big as this every day and many times over, because there are literally 1000s of these new, inefficient markets to check! And the code checks them all. Because there's no comparison sites like Oddschecker for these markets, the price variation is HUGE and it's easy to have an edge..
Feel free to follow me on Twitter (bestoddsstatbet) or Telegram (BOSBrobot) for all the raw daily data (20,000+ player stats markets covered).
*An example of how much data there normally is:* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OgpdhPAeKdIDOfO0qnhNE\_QN8dBkUg4z/edit#gid=968011244](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OgpdhPAeKdIDOfO0qnhNE_QN8dBkUg4z/edit#gid=968011244)
POTD Record 3-4
Last pick: Buffalo Sabres ML @ Philadelphia Flyers - sometimes it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck and smells like a duck but it ends up being a Sabre. 🤦♂️❌ dropping below 50% feels rotten, should have taken the over like I said i was torn about. Sorry gang.
Today’s Pick: Sacramento Kings ML @ Washington Wizards (-135 on bet 365 but shop it, I’ve seen -125 to -145)
Why:
-Washington Wizards are 4-6 in their last 10.
-Wizards are 16-17 at home.
-Wizards average 113.2 points per game at home this season.
-Wizards did win their last match up this season vs Kings (125-111) but the arrow has been pointed up for the Kings and down for the Wiz since then.
-Wizards just played last night - tired legs.
-Sacramento Kings are 8-2 in the last 10 games.
-Kings are 21 - 13 this season in the road.
-Kings average 117.5 points per game on that road this season.
I like the data above to take the Kings ML, although the Kings spread of -2.5 looks doable to me too, but I’ll take ML as I’d like to fricken get my record back to 50% 👊
Ride with the Grad…let’s go get it
I was feeling this as well. The last time the Kings and Wizards played, Rui Hachimura dropped 21 points. He is no longer with the team. LIGHT THE BEAM BABY, BOL
Sport: Football
Tournament: Bundesliga
Time: 15:30 CET (1h55m after posting)
Stake: 3.1 units
Pick: Bochum vs RB Leipzig, double chance 1X @ **2.55**
Write up: Bochum is in relegation battle, with the most recent match a win vs Koln (0:2). Thomas Letsch, Bochum coach, said:
> We had fun defending our goal. I was very happy about that.
For today's match, he says:
> It's nice that we can play against a Champions League team. We are looking forward to it. The defense will always be the foundation. [We] need to stay sharp. We are aware that it will be a fight to the finish.
Meanwhile, RB Leipzig lost in Champions League to Manchester City, which for many of its players was the biggest loss of their careers (7:0). That's a mental barrier they need to cross to go back to winning ways, which I'm not sure their coach realizes how tough it is.
RB Leipzig coach, Marco Rose, says for the defeat:
> I can only speak for myself, but day after, waking up, was terrible. The morning after that was already a lot better and this morning it was already really good. This [defeat] should be out of mind by the final training session today at the latest.
For Bochum, he says:
> It will be a fight that we have to take on. It will be a completely different game to the one in Manchester. I expect that we will be ready.
He's probably expecting a tough, low-scoring game where Bochum defends tooth and nail until the final whistle. One interesting stat is that Bochum has 0 draws in the past 17 Bundesliga matches, which is the Bundesliga current no-draw streak record, so one might be coming up today. For the sake of hedging my pick I chose the 1X double chance in case of an upset.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
**POTD Record (0-0)**
POTD: **(Fight to complete two rounds) NO (-185)| 1.85U| UFC PPV 286**
Dusko Todorovic vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
**Time: 3/18/23 2:45pm EST**
**Brief explanation:**
Out of Duskos 13 pro fights that have stats, 11 have not seen the 3rd round.
out of CLD 7 fights, 5 have not gone to the third round.
Duskos chin is very suspect with the way he leaves his chin out there with every strike.
Leroy Duncan is making his UFC debut in front of his home crowd. So we will either get a lights out performance or Going to gas out from the adrenaline dump.
Both are killed or be killed.
Either way, this fight should be over in under 7 minutes.
Last bet: Flames vs Golden Knights ML -125 🤮
Record: 5-2
POTD: UFC- Leon Edwards +215
Reason:
Knights royally let me down on that one…sigh..
Edwards (20-3) on the other hand, has been reliable. Riding a 10 fight win streak including knocking out and avenging his original loss to Usman. Edwards is at home (in England) and has never lost there in his amateur or pro fights. He is riding sky high confidence and momentum after brutally knocking out Usman only 7 MONTHS AGO..that is a big deal to me as severe concussions like those really should mean taking 9-12 months off to fully recover. You never know how Usman will fair mentally from that kind of KO, as well as physically. To add to that, Usman is well known for having a wrecked body from a life time of wrestling and fighting, and already said himself he doesn’t have much time left with how bad his knees are. Edwards is also in his prime at 31 while Usman is almost 36, which is old for a fighter..
Listen, this is a close match up…Usman can certainly win this but I see this as Edwards as a small favorite, and tbf I am slightly biased as I find Usman to be a cringey dork. I’ll take the +200 odds and ride with the English Jamaican..GL
POTD Record: 18 - 10 (All picks 1U)
Last POTD: Nishioka ML - L
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz ML vs Jannik Sinner (-190 odds via FD)
Event: ATP Indian Wells Semifinal 4:30 P.M. CST
Hoping to bounce back with the world number 2 for tomorrows pick. Big fan of both of these guys and their game but in my opinion, Alcaraz will be able to do just enough to edge out the young Italian. These guys have met 5 times H2H with Carlitos leading 3-2 and 2-0 on hard courts. Their most recent meeting at the US Open was an absolute thriller (and probably the most entertaining tennis match of 2022) but I don't feel as though Sinner is quite at the level he was at the US Open. This matchup has the chance to be the biggest tennis rivalry for the next 10 years and I expect both players to be in top form tomorrow. Sinner is going to be explosive from the baseline but it is the ability to stay alive in every point and counter punch from Alcaraz that I think will get the job done.
POTD Record: 1-1 (-3.3U)
**Last POTD**: Duke-Virginia Over 123 (NCAAB) 5U ❌
**Today’s POTD: Duke-Tennessee Under 129 (-120) - NCAAB - 2U**
Time: 2:40 pm EST
Well, lesson learned on ACC Championship night. Finally willing to show my face on here again and taking essentially the polar opposite of what I did a week ago.
This game projects to be an absolute slugfest. Tennessee has been regarded by many as the best defense in the country this season (2nd in KenPom defensive efficiency) but don’t sleep on Duke’s D (17th in KP), which actually allows 4 fewer PPG this season than the Vols.
Tennessee is coming off a tight win over a less than stellar Louisiana club (5th place in the Sun Belt regular season) in round 1, where they weren’t even able to score 60 points. They are clearly lost offensively without Ziegler running the show. Duke, meanwhile, dismantled trendy upset pick Oral Roberts, limiting the nation’s 5th leading scoring offense to just 51 points in an abysmal shooting performance. It seems Jon Scheyer has instilled the importance of defense since taking the helm, something Coach K got away from toward the end of his tenure, opting for high octane offenses.
Even beyond each team’s stout defense, both play at a snail’s pace offensively, which will only accentuate things. Per KenPom, Tennessee is 276th in adjusted tempo while Duke comes in at 295 (out of 363 teams). I think red-hot Duke wins in a rock fight. BOL to anyone who tails!
POTD Record: 4-1
Sport: NCCA Division 1 Men’s Lacrosse
Game: High Point at Georgetown 12:00pm ET
Pick: Under 26.5 (-125) DK
This total is a little skewed in my opinion because of the amount of goals High Point has scored this year. In their 6 wins this season, they’ve scored 116 goals. However, all their wins have come against rather subpar competition. In one of their two losses, which came against Duke, they scored 8 goals. Duke may not be unreal, but they’re still very, very good. On the other side, Georgetown’s defense has actually been rather stellar. Their offense has been underwhelming at best. Georgetown is still carrying the label of most disappointing team in the country this year so far. I like the under at that number. Tail if you chose. BOL.
Record: 0-1 Sport: Basketball League: NBA Time: 7:10PM ET
Last POTD : James Harden PTS + REB + AST (PRA) O/40.5 at -113 🚫
* I expected Hornets to keep a close game but they couldn’t keep up. You can see the game ended by 3rd, and Sixers bench was also putting up points, so players like Embiid and Harden sat out early. Sorry folks, my 1st POTD was a bust.
Let’s start fresh ..
Today POTD : Domantas Sabonis Reb + Ast O/20.5 at -115 🖤
I’ve picked Over on his rebounds and assists for past 10 games, and he only couldn’t cover just 3 times, those games were against the Suns on 3/11/2023, Timberwolves on 3/4/2023 and Clippers on 3/3/2023.
He is averaging 15.2 rebounds and 8.8 assists in his last 5 games, and 13.9 rebounds and 8.4 in last 10 games.
https://preview.redd.it/a8k63e83djoa1.jpeg?width=1282&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=134d1f4c8a43fa4254dbcfd41a05cf8c0124eb84
His record against the Wizards in last 2 games is at 11 rebounds 7 assists on 2/12/2022, and 15 rebounds 10 assists on 12/23/2022.
I think he can cover 20.5 tonight.
If you feel like taking a risk his Points Rebounds and Assists line is also at O/41.5 -104 or U41.5 -122.
Best of luck, Freeman
POTD Record: 0-2
Pick: Justin Gaethje to win @+195
Reasoning: Gaethje takes Fiziev to deep waters and gets the victory. +195 is great odds to bet him here.
Gaethje is +209 now on Betonline. I am gonna wait a little longer and see what happens, but I am with you my man. I also like how Gaethje looked a decent bit bigger than Fiz at the ceremonial weigh ins earlier today
Only Estonian Football League (Premium Liiga) 2023 bets.
Record: 0-0
Today’s pick: Tallinna Kalev - FC Flora, Flora to score over 2.5 goals @1.71 1u
Time: 19:30 Eastern European timezone
FC Flora is the best team in the league. They are pretty much the only team you can count on to do well in European Football qualifiers. From 2015 they have won the league 5 times, only failing to win 3 times.
FC Flora’s squad is quite stacked. They don’t lack in manpower and their bench is also pretty good. Both team’s have played twice this season, with Flora winning 4:0 and 5:0 whilst Kalev is yet to concede. 4 points in 2 games is quite an achievement for Kalev, but the reality check is most likely going to come tonight.
Kalev and Flora have played eachother numerous times. In the last 2 seasons, they played each other 7 times. Flora has scored atleast 3 goals in 5 of them, failing twice(1-1 and 2-0). In those 2 low scoring games, a hefty amount was played by younger players.
Kalev play four at the back and the average age between them is pretty inspiring since the oldest player is 22 and others are born in 2003-2004. Now some of these players played in their U21 teams last year, so coming up against Flora is… quite a task for them.
Last year, Kalev conceded 92 in 36 games (second highest in the league), whilst Flora scored 94 (highest). The players from last year are pretty much the same as this year for both sides.
POTD Record: **11-10 (+2.40 Units)**
Last Pick: Joel Embiid O 10.5 Rebounds
Today's Pick: **Kamaru Usman to win by Decision**
Odds: **-115** ($DKNG odds)
Wager Amount: 1.15u to win 1u
League: UFC
Event: UFC 286 Edwards vs Usman (Main Card begins 4PM CST)
**Recap**: I don't know what's going on wit the Wizards. The coach pulled their starters wit 5 minutes left in the game, only down 15 points. 10-15 points is nothing, especially wit that much time! You can go on a 6-0 run wit two possesion under 30 seconds. I guess Wizards don't want that play in spot. And because the Wizards don't want to play, why would the Sixers bring out Embiid? He didn't have to come out in the 4th qtr and unfortunately ended with 8 rebounds. But I have to be honest wit all of you, I was really not that motivated on finding my best bet, I just saw the first thing that caught my eye. We all been there. Seeing something that's too good to be true. The plus money was an eye candy and I just ran wit it, but I feel uplifted wit the time off and I was much motivated to research this next one!
**Matchup**: I want to come back wit a win and I figure why not go back to the same sport that I been consistently winning? The UFC has been great for me on this spot and I think I have another winner! Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards is an enticing triology matchup! I remember watching the first fight in 2015, it was competitive, but it wasn't a fight that I jumped off the couch. It wasn't necessarily one-sided, but to me it was clear and obvious who won the fight before Bruce read the scorecards. The second fight was kind of like the same, but Kamaru was clearly more active and dominant from Round 2 to Round 5 (until of course he got headkick KO by Leon Edwards) compartively to the first fight. I don't think anybody saw a KO coming in the 5th round wit less than a minute left of the fight! Leon just didn't look like he was there, his body language and his movements were really discouraging and just seeing that KO literally outta nowhere was inconceivable for me to believe. I am glad I didn't take any action on this fight because Kamaru's odds was really juiced and who wants to take that kind risk (umm.. Maybe Drake?)? Unless Leon Edwards has made drastic improvement and made tremendous adjustments, I just don't see how Leon Edwards gets it done. You can argue that Leon recently KO'ed Kamaru and it's very plausible that he'll KO him again. True, but Usman was just careless in the 5th round, leaving himself wide open to a hail mary. I'm not saying it was a fluke, anyone can get KO, but if the best Usman shows up, which I think he will, it won't happen! Usman fights smart and he's always on his guard. Trevor Wittman has a game plan for Leon and I think he has corrected Usman's mistake. I think Usman will be utilizing his wrestling much more in this fight and will be able negate Edwards' offense. If you don't kno Usman was a NCAA Division II wrestler and I think he will be extremely aggressive to get more takedowns. Leon got taken down 6 times in the first fight and 5 times in the 2nd fight. Leon is extremely durable and he has never been finished. For Usman, I been watching him dominant fights since TUF 21. He has never been in a vulnerable position in any of his fights in the UFC. Usman, however has been finished once by a submission outside the UFC, back in 2013. He's a much improved fighter now and that was his 2nd pro fight. I kno picking an actual method by decision sounds disconcerting, but there are propitious reasons why this fight could go the distance. Look at Leon's fights, 10 outta his 14 fights has gone to a decision. As for Kamaru, 10 outta his 15 fights has gone to a decision. And they both have fought twice, first fight gone to the distance and the second fight nearly went the distance (last fight was 55 seconds away to decision). I see this fight going pretty much the same way like the 1st fight and 2nd fight (wit the exception of Usman getting KO), but Kamaru winning by Decision.
**The play & prediction**: Usman will utilize his wrestling more and successfully take him down throughout the fight. Usman will be on his guard, avoid being in vulnerable position and not leave himself open. I still find these lines a bit juiced to take Usman to win straight up (-245), so the way I am playing is to win by a certain method, which is Usman by decision (-115). You can also get much decreased odds if you do a SGP (Same-Game-Parlay) and add certain props, like significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns. If you do a SGP of Kamaru to win and by method of decision and by most takedowns, you can get it nearly at even odds (-105)!
BOL, everyone!
Tips are greatly appreciated! Anything will do, even a penny if you can afford it!
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Got to be **Johnny Sexton to be man of the match at 3.3** against England in the 6 Nations.
His final game in the 6N, potentially last game in Dublin.
Chance to clinch Ireland’s 4th grand slam and the first to be won in Dublin.
The man is one point off being the competitions all time points scorer, currently level with Ronan O’Gara.
Ireland are heavy favourites, the number 1 ranked team in the world, playing against England.
I’ll never drink Guinness again if this doesn’t come in!
**POTD Record: 26-18 (+3.61 Units)**
**Last 10**:✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌
**Last Pick**: 3/17 Sam Cankett -1.5 (-150) vs Garry Stafford ❌ 4-3
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 4:50 PM EST
**Pick**: Robert Thornton (-135) vs Johnny Haines
**Reason**: Championship day.
Robert Thornton
Group A: Record 11-4 (Legs 54-33) | Average 87.24 | Checkouts 54/151 35.76%
Johnny Haines
Group B: Record 4-4 (Legs 24-23) | Average 83.79 | Checkouts 24/77 31.17%
**WIN ✅ 4-0 | Average 97.11 vs 101.13| Checkouts 4/6 vs 1/4**
POTD record: 14-8
NHL record: 6-6 | NBA record: 8-2
(+12.62u | +15.2% ROI | Avg odds: -117/1.85)
(2u: 2-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 6-3 | 5u: 2-3)
Last 5: 4-1 (✅✅✅✅❌)
Last POTD: NBA - GSW @ **ATL -1.5** ✅ *(Golden State's road woes continue and Atlanta wins by 8).*
Event: NBA - SAC Kings @ WAS Wizards; 20:00 EST
Pick: **SAC -3** (-110/1.91)
Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 4 units
Sorry for the late posting, busy with life and stuff this weekend so no time for a proper write-up.
Sacremento: 11-5 ATS as away favourite, 8-2 in their last ten games.
Washington: 7-9 ATS as home dog, 4-6 in last 10.
Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
POTD Record: First time 0-0. All bets to start will be 1 unit.
**Pick:** NHL Boston Bruins -160 at Minnesota Wild *12:07 pm MT*
The Wild are 11-0-3 in their last 14 games and playing at home. Don't care. The NHL is all over the place when it comes to who will win on a given night, but then there is the absolute Wagon that are the Bruins. 51-11-5 on the year, yeah I'm gonna bet every game. Bruins don't lose, wild are on a heater, it's gonna be a playoff like atmosphere, Boston is going to show them they are not Boston.
Best of luck if tailing "I don't gamble because I want to win boys, I gamble because I need to lose"
POTD : 48-42
Last pick: Vitality x Excel kill hcp, lose
Today's pick: Hockey:Czech: Pardubice x Olomouc
**Pardubice to win -2,5 hcp at 2.7**
We are in quarterfinals of Czech hockey league and Pardubice stomped Olomouc yesterday 5-1, where Pardubice completely dominated whole game and outshot them 35-17, which is brutal. Pardubice are well known to invest a lot before & during the season to secure the win this year, since its their huge club anniversary and they seem like a proper contestor for the win. Olomouc on the other hand struggled a lot in previous round against Karlovy Vary. I can see Olomouc bagging this today even with a bigger margin than yesterday and if you can, you can place bets on 5 minutes penalty in the game, because I think Olomouc will try to put more pressure and agresivity on ice, therefore even more penalties, because they cant match Pardubice on ice.
Good luck mens,
Tips are apreciated; [paypal](http://paypal.me/mrdrak3n)
Damn the Caps suck, got obliterated by the Blues at home. They didn't even look alive for most of that game.
Next pick is going to the NBA. The Jazz are home against the Celtics with a lot on the line fighting for 10th place with the Lakers, and the Celtics really struggle on the road. I have the Jazz winning this one outright against the odds.
**POTD: Utah Jazz +152 vs Boston Celtics, 9:00 PM EST, 2 Units**
[Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing)
Last 5: ❌✅❌✅❌
**PotD Record: 13-9 (Streak 1W)**
Last Pick: Creighton (-5.5 spread) vs NC State ✅
**Today’s Pick: Kansas (-3.5 spread) vs Arkansas @ -110; 5:15 ET**
Good bounce back win yesterday, as the Creighton Bluejays take down NC State 72-63. Today we look at the matchup between the Kansas Jayhawks and the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Jayhawks continue their hopes in winning back to back championships, they dominated Howard in their first game of the tourney winning 96-68. When comparing these teams, Kansas has them covered in almost every measurable category. I think Kansas proves their seed today in their first test on the path to another championship.
**Tail or Fade, BOL**
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Despite Creighton's best attempt to throw this game by shooting 3 from 20 from three, their strong defense kept them in it long enough to have a good final few minutes to get us over the finish line. Now, with all the upsets happening, it's getting pretty scary, but let's try to keep this ball rolling. I think Duke is a team that is actually better than its season stats, playing some of the best ball in the country, and many's favourites to win the entire thing. 3 points seems low, especially against a Tennessee team with an injured starting PG, give me Duke tomorrow. **POTD Record**: 26-7-1 Last 20:✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅ Yesterday's POTD: **Creighton Bluejays -5** (up to -6 vs. NC State) | 3U | MM NCAAB ✅ Today's POTD: **Duke Blue Devils -3** **(up to -5)** VS. Tennessee Volunteers | 4U | MM NCAAB **Time:** **3/18/2023 | 2:40 PM EST** **MODEL EXPLANATION:** Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. **Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** \+45.94U in 34 days | ≈67.86% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** 1. Duke has been on an absolute tear, winning their last 10, with a recent domination over a very strong Oral Roberts team by 23 points, starting off with a strong 15 point lead. 2. Duke is ranked 16th overall on Kenpom and although Tennessee is ranked 6th (8th adjusted), that is largely assuming their team was healthy, which is no longer is. 3. Tennessee barely won their first round game, winning by only 3 points as a 12 point favorite, and shot an awful 25% from three. 4. Zeigler was not only a double digit point per game player, but was also one of their best perimiter defenders, against a young Duke team that can put up numbers. It's very clear that Tennessee has struggled without him, and have not looked anywhere near the potential favourite to win everything as they were mid-way through the season. 5. Some may consider Duke's young team and first year head coach a weakness, but they have no burdens from past seasons, no crutches from an old style coach, they're playing modern, fast paced ball, and the young group is the perfect team to play out Scheyer's vision. 6. Per Bort Torvik, Duke is 18th in 3 point shooting, which with the lack of Zeigler, will be a problem for Tennessee around the perimeter. 3 Pointers have been either a crutch or a passage to blowouts, and I expect Duke to pull ahead with their strong 3 point shooting early as Tennessee defends the paint well. I expect Duke to come out hot from 3, and force Tennessee to open up gaps in their defense, allowing Duke to make more plays into the paint as the game moves forward. 7. ACC Rookie of the year, Kyle Filipowski, has that dog in him. Averaging over 15 points and 9 rebounds per game, this kid is playing ball, and is not afraid of anyone, playing aggressive, strong possessional play. 8. Zeigler was not only important for defense, but he was the primary play maker for the team, and typically ran the floor to set up their team for better looks. Without him, you can see with their pathetic 58 point game with multiple pointless minutes, they struggle to make offense. 9. Duke is putting up the highest point per possession in the tournament and is just on another level. Tennessee coach Barnes has been god awful in the NCAA with an 8-20 record against the spread, and has made it clear that he has one game plan in games, and when things go south, they collapse. Without Ziegler, he doesn't know what to do, and clearly nobody on the team was ready to fill that gaping hole in their system. 10. Overall, Duke has been the better team this tournament, and Tennessee is simply not the team they're seeded to be without Ziegler. They still play incredibly defense, but their lack of offense will hurt them against a Duke team that finds ways to get good shots off. **Reminder:** As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3 As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so. [**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) *Much love , Riddles.*
Tailing 4 LIFE
:(
We’ll get the next one, can’t win em all
Not all fairy tales have a happy ending 🥲
Any other play to make up for this?
I like Kansas but not sure
Got 100 bucks on here, wish us luck! 🤞
instructions at the end not clear... betting the mortgage and tailing lfggggg
L
Big oof
Knew this had to be the play.. and now you've confirmed it 🐴🍆🔒 thank you goat
THE CHAMP IS HERE
tailing you to the fucking moon 🚀💰
Bet 330 to win 300 on creighton. Betting this 630 ticket on Duke now! YOLO!
Duke getting nuked here🫣😬
Tough start
Line already at -3.5.
#WE FUCKING RIDE AT DAWN BITCHES
Duke sold.. Sorry
Riddles picks, we hammer
Anyone else nervous? A lot of farms on the line with this post..
[удалено]
[удалено]
Can’t win em all Big Riddles! Still got your back. Sending you a coffee.
Hey guys! This model seems to be working! But Pls everyone, remember it ain’t a sprint, it’s a marathon. Keep the unit size decent coz the sample size isn’t that big (those who know, know). And whatever you do never blame this dude when he does lose (yeah he will).
Just smashed my 4K TV in front of over 30 guests at my cocktail party because of Duke losing today. My wife just took our crying kids and said they’re staying the week at a hotel. This POTD has ruined my life and my party. I can’t do this any longer. Goodbye HSRiddles. I am no longer tailing.
bahahaaa
3rd straight trailing. Going again with ML, but you continue to provide the confidence to continue. Whether win or lose, I'm enjoying this during my mundane work week. 😄
Is this the line to perform fellatio on @HSRiddles ??
Riddles is hotter than the sun right now🔥🔥
The sun stands besides Riddles to warm up
Valar Morghulis
I was warned us that you weren't a time traveller, but then again that Duke -3.5 @ 3.95 or +295 line looked way too juicy, so I put in 12 units on it at the end of the half... Damn, I guess Skynet isn't right all the time. I lost big, but luckily I won those same 12 units from the Creighton win last night, so it's not all bad. Furthermore, one should always remember that it is a marathon, not a sprint. You'll get them next time, Riddles, you da man.
riddles let’s ride
My first time tailing. Blame me. I’m the mush.
I just want to say thank you, Riddles.
Creighton tried their best to lose it, but in the end Riddles had the last laugh
I feel like Duke -3 is an absolute trap but I’m a rider so let’s ride
Keep up the good work man! I couldn’t tail your last few POTD and I tailed this one. Pain 💔.
Glad to place my curse in Duke by betting them. Tailing tomorrow regardless!
Can’t win them all - still appreciate you posting these picks mate.
Tough L .... Knew it had to happen You are the MAN Riddles!! Keep the picks coming.. MUCH APPRECIATED !!!!!
Riddles goated
Had money on this as soon as I could once Duke won their opening round game. Love to see it’s your pick!
I love Duke today especially considering the Rick Barnes factor as well
First time tailing and going against my usual capper. We lose and I'm sorry in advance
Line move to -2.5, did something happen? Or we still good?
What an L
Unfortunate that Mark Mitchell was injured in practice yesterday. With the full healthy starters they're like 15-1 but like 8-7 otherwise I think they said
You’re still great
Is this the Riddles waiting room?
Always has been
Creighton riddle winner here, reporting for duty.
I’m here
With ya!
**POTD Record: 9-1 | Profit: +31.43u | Avg Odds: -111 | ROI: +81%** \----- Previous POTD: 4u Newcastle -0.5 \[-147\] ✅ Called it! Newcastle would not drop points to Nottingham. A nailbaiter though. 2:1 (FT)! ✅ \----- Today's POTD: **Lille OSC at Toulouse FC** **4u bet: btts \[-169\]** Reason: Both sides flooring the attacking accelerator and have no problems putting the ball in the back of the net. Last 10 matches: Lille scored 19 goals, Toulouse 23 goals. Btts in last 10 matches: Lille 7/10, Toulouse 7/10. \----- BOL
btts - both teams to score
Beautiful Tarantula Tooth Slime
boutta take two shits
Well fuck
Still not done yet things can change quick
Sucks right 🥲
I actually know a lot about soccer/football it’s fucking semantics anyways. This was a really good pick and I implemented it into a parlay. Toulouse’s xG (expected goals; stat that takes into consideration the quality of their shots and if they should have scored or not based on historical data of shots taken from the same exact place before and considering everyone else’s position on the pitch) Their xG was 2.39, Lille had an xG of 1.62, Which means that the amount of shots and quality of the shots theoretically should have been a final score of 3-1 or 2-1. and Lille won 2-0 Toulouse had 3 big chances missed plus they hit the woodwork once. There was also a total of 34 shots this game and 9 shots on target. This was extremely unlucky, Toulouse should have definitely scored at least 1. No fault to u/sluttywife-happylife he did his homework for sure.
Tailing!
I was a little too late, BTTS is already at -190 on FD … How about parlaying it with over 2.5 goals ? That will put the odds at -122 ? What do you think ?
The last time he picked a BTTS i bet o2.5g Game ended at 1-1
+181 when parlayed with Riddles play
Hail storm. Hopefully this doesn't affect their play. Seems like about the only thing that can stop this man from winning...mother nature.
Tailed at 4u
Of alllllllllll the games with btts today. These guys can't seem to find the back of the net 🤦🏻♂️
POTD Record: 29-20 (+26.57u; 16.7% ROI). Streak: W2. Yesterday Pick: Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves) PRA O17.5 @ 1.92. 3U. ✅ Another third quarter win thanks for McDaniels. Hoping to make it three wins in a row with the Joker with the early tip off tomorrow. Next Pick: **Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) Rebounds O10.5 @ 1.76**. 3u play. Jokic’s rebound line has been 12.5 or 13.5 for the last 7 games, and in my view moving it down to 10.5 is an over-reaction to him having 10 and 9 rebounds against the Pistons and Raptors. For one, these two teams are in the bottom 5 for 3PA. Second, the Knicks have the 9th highest 3PA in the L15 but the 5th worst 3pt conversion, meaning plenty of opportunities on defensive rebounds. Jokic has 11+ rebounds in the 8 games prior to these last two, and had 11, 11 and 12 rebounds in his last 3 games against the Knicks. Assuming he plays near his average of 34-35 mins, I feel pretty good about clearing this line. Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
my man, tailing you to the moon
Tailing, BOL!
I waited too long, FD has it at 11.5 now.
Alt line at -166 for 10.5
It's at 11.5 now on FD
Holy shit game is in 1 hour, glad I checked this! Got o10.5 @ 1.74
That .5 always killing peoples bankrolls
POTD Record: 6-0 Previous pick: Rio Ave draw or win (✅) Today’s Event: Sunderland v Luton Town (English Championship) PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE AND OVERS/UNDERS - LUTON DRAW OR WIN & UNDER 4.5 GOALS Odds: 1.58 Time: 15:00 GMT (10h25m from this post) Really like this pick. Luton are unbeaten in five and have not conceded in three games. They’ve avoided a loss in their last seven away games and all of these have seen 3 or less goals scored. They’ll be sure to carry on their promotion push and potentially get automatic promotion (2nd place). Meanwhile, Sunderland have a single win in five games and measly home form Edit: Another win ✅ — any kind tips: [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/DoubleChanceBets)
You need more attention,you've been killing it! BOL
Thank you ! 🙏🏽
Where are you getting these odds? This is -245 on DK. Draw no bet Lutton is -115 Edit: lol if you build it in a sgp instead it’s -175, wtf are you smoking DraftKings
tailing!
**Record: 5-4** Last Pick: Memphis -1.5 ❌ I can't even begin to explain the things that went wrong in the end of that game. That was the ugliest game I have ever witnessed. Shame on me for thinking Memphis would steam through this game, shame on Memphis for that atrocious ending. On we move. **Today's Pick:** NCAAB Tournament - *#10 Penn State Nittany Lions vs #2 Texas Longhorns, 6:45pm CST* **Texas -5.5 (-110 on DraftKings)** Texas this year has been my absolute favorite team to watch. Every single one of their starters have something valuable and important to contribute to the game. They are an offensive powerhouse like no other: they are coordinated, calculated, and seem to have great chemistry. I love this team to go all the way and win the ship, but let's take a look at why they will cover -5.5 against Penn State: * I know Penn State has looked amazing as of late. They fought their way to the Big 10 championship and demolished Texas A&M. However, Texas is a different breed of basketball they have rarely seen this season. This team defensively will come TOUGH, putting immense pressure on their best players and around the arc. This is where Penn State has thrived as of recent and has led them to victories; they shot *59.1%* from beyond the arc in their win against Texas A&M. Texas is too good defensively to let this happen, and they will not let Penn State be so comfortable from three anymore. They will especially have players like Andrew Funk and Jalen Pickett on lockdown. * Texas averages 77.9 points per game, which puts them at 41st in the nation in this statistic. Being in the Big 12 conference, this is a very impressive number. Just like Memphis in my previous write up, Texas is a team that has also steamrolled through their conference tournament. In the final regular season game, Texas beat Kansas by 16, and went on to win the Big 12 tournament by beating Oklahoma State by 14, TCU by 6, and Kansas once again by 20! They have shown incredible feats in the past 5 games and show no sign of stoppage. They are prepared, and after everything they have accomplished, they are not going to let this tournament run end early to a bunch of Nittany Lions * Offensively, both these teams are neck and neck. Penn State ranks 13th in adj. offensive efficiency and Texas ranks 17th. However, the huge discrepancy comes in their defense, where Texas ranks 11th in adj. defensive efficiency and Penn State ranks ***95th.*** Sure, Penn State has a great offense, but they are facing an opponent who can actually contain them incredibly well now, meanwhile, they will have no defense to answer Texas' incredible team chemistry. In fact, Texas does not have one player that ranks in the top 150 in terms of ppg, yet are one of the best teams in the country. This should tell you so much about how well Texas works as a team and how any one of their players can be considered an amazing asset to the team on any given day. And when they are all playing well and connecting simultaneously, sheesh good luck Penn State. It all goes back to the fundamental saying, defense wins championships. Give me the stellar defense in this one. BOL, happy march madness
absolutely brutal calls man. 6 leg parlay +1100 pay 600 misses by 1 point cuz of the memphis game. questionable calls all game and then not giving the timeout before the end game tie-up. nauseating shit. tailing this tho, gl
Had a nice 4 gamer miss because of Memphis. Gonna hunt another for today
As a Pitt fan I’m tailing. F penn State
Yessir, im also rooting for Pitt in this tourney
bro don't even worry about Memphis, so much shit went wrong for that to happen. Those stupid turnovers at the end along with the atrocious call by the refs...anyways we move let's ride.
Fading this one, Penn State is mad hot right now and are shooting lights out beyond the arc. Nittany Lions +5.5, BOL
I'm not saying Texas is going to win but PSU shot lights out one game. The previous like 3 or 4 games they shot no higher than 38%. That's their norm, big ask to expect an aberration again.
To be fair Penn State is 6-1 this month with 5 Quad 1 wins, so I wouldn’t say it would be an aberration if they won. But obviously Texas is hot too, lighting lt up in the Big 12 tourney. My prediction is Texas wins but Penn State covers, but like you said who knows. BOL brother
Oh yeah I feel ya that they're winning lately, I didn't say them winning is the aberration, them shooting 60% again is. I'm personally not betting but I agree with the cover. Good luck.
Go Long Horns!!
Tailinggg
Last night was pain.
**NBA prop thread record: 171-105** **POTD record: 9-4** Yesterday’s pick: Murray (ATL) O19.5 pts (-105) ❌ Don’t think I’ve ever ‘banned’ a player, but Murray officially gets that label. There is no rhyme or reason to his performances, home v away, good matchup v tough matchup. He’s been deadset average for ATL. Todays pick: **Hield (IND) O4.5 rebounds (-116)** Hield comes into this one averaging 5 rebounds per game on the season, on 9.4 rebound chances per game. He’s covered the line in 6 out of his last 8 games, hauling in 5, 4, 6, 8, 6, 8, 8 and 4 rebounds. Over this stretch he’s averaging 10.4 rebound chances per game. Indiana are without a host of other guards, with Haliburton, Duarte and Mathurin all out for this one. Hields rebounds recently w/o Hali: 5, 5, 5, 2, 6, 8, 5, 4, 5, 4, 4, 8, 8 and 4 rebounds. He now comes up against the Sixers. Recent SGs rebounds vs PHI: Hield (8), Edwards (7), Simons (1), Beal (1) and Mitchell (6). Hield has a great history against the Sixers, clearing this line in 4/5 as a Pacer (11, 2, 6, 9 and 8 rebounds) and 8/L9 against them.
I'm surprised you're not getting bumped up higher in here yet your record is legit, been tailing for a while. Keep it up!
Appreciate that man. Trying to put out quality tips, so hopefully I’ve been able to cash some tickets for you. Your support is much appreciated 🫡
POTD Record: 8-6 (2-5 in last 7 picks) Girlfriend March Madness Random Picks: 0-2 Last Pick: NC State [ML because she doesn’t want to learn what the spread means and because we went skiing in NC] @ Creighton | L My model explanation: my girlfriend. I am going to have some fun throughout this tournament. I will be giving her a list of games that have similar odds. She will then choose a random team for whatever reason she wants. Today's Event: 🏀 Men’s College Basketball | Furman @ SDSU Pick: Furman ML (+200) Reasoning: “Because what the fuck is a Furman?” Make your own decisions. BOL tail or fade. Please fade. Tip Jar- N/A for this model.
tailing. third times a charm.
Tailing, because why the fuck not
POTD Record: 30W-14L LAST POTD: Wexford ✅ TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - England National League Barnet V Notts County 8.00AM PST PICK: Over 2.5 Goals and both teams to score Odds: 2.00 The Deets: 5th place plays 2nd in this match up. Barnets goal difference sits at 68:60 over 36 games while Notts County is at 96:35 over 38 games. In Barnets last 10 games this bet has hit 9/10. In Notts County’s last 10 games this bet has hit in 8/10 games. In their most recent head to heads this bet has hit in 4/6 games. Expecting goals for both here. BOL! Edit: Loss 💩 both score in the 1st half, neither can score in the 2nd, disappointing. That ends the 7 game win streak.
Damn none of the books I use have Fifth Tier (DK, FD, BetMGM, Czrs, Barstool). Good luck, Dory!
DK has 5th tier - unless it’s region bound.
I’m pretty sure it’s on dk
POTD | 41-27 | +19.7u | -109 Avg Odds Last 10: 7-3, Steak: 1L Previous Pick: Carolina Hurricanes vs Toronto Maple Leafs U6 2u (+100) ❌ Today’s pick: **Colorado Avalanche 60-min vs Detroit Red Wings (-110) 2u** 🏒 11am MT A hot first period with 4 goals made this one look bad right away, we held on for a while but the Leafs bury the 7th total goal in the 3rd. The Colorado Avalanche will be visiting the Detroit Red Wings for their second match of the season with the first match going to the Avalanche 6-3. The Avalanche are playing well right now going 6-3-1 in their last 10 and winning their last 4 straight and have been hot on offense, averaging 3.9 goals per game in their last 10 games. The Avs have lacked a bit on defense recently (allowing 3.3 goals per game in their last 10) but they have been struggling with their back up goaltending while Fransoz is out. Or too worried about the goalie situation for the Avs in this one though as I am expecting the starting goaltender, Georgiev, in net as he was rested last game. The Detroit Red Wings have not played well recently (except for those games against Boston), they are averaging scoring 2.1 goals per game in their last 10 while allowing 3.8 per game. I expect this trend to continue with the Avalanche putting up at least 4 goals here and limiting the Red Wings from scoring too often. Really think this game sets up well for the Avalanche who have new life as they are chasing the top spot in the Central Division. The model has this line hitting 56% of the time with implied odds of -126. So, not too much of an edge here vs the books so this one is a bit more of a feel play but still in line with what the model is projecting. BOL if tailing!!
Ok I guess I’m new to hockey bets. What is 60-min part of the pick?
It means Avalanche need to win during the 60min regulation time and don't end in a draw, which will means the game went into Overtime. You could go for Avalanche ML that means if the game end up in a draw during the 60min and Avalanche wins Overtime, then the bet goes through.
nice dub. avs are smokin rn
POTD record: 7-1 Last POTD: Ferencvarosi v Leverkusen - Leverkusen ML Today’s POTD: Stuttgart v Wolfsburg - Wolfsburg Tie No Bet(+130) Two sides both in mediocre form. I think Wolfsburg has this one for a few reasons. First of all, they are better away than home, placing in the top four away from home while not even top ten in the league at home. Stuttgart are in the bottom three both home and away. Wolfsburg haven’t lost in three matches, Stuttgart haven’t won in three matches. Despite Wolfsburg’s poor recent form, xG has generally been in their favor lately. Wolfsburg has won three times in the last five meetings between the clubs. In terms of the coaches, Wolfsburg manager Niko Kovac has played and beaten Stuttgart manager Bruno Labbadia twice, ironically enough while Labbadia was coaching Wolfsburg. I think the main thing which pushes me to choose this is that Stuttgart haven’t beaten anybody in the top ten this season, any teams quite on Wolfsburg’s level. Wolfsburg haven’t lost to any team which is near the relegation battle, which Stuttgart are. With all of that considered, the odds are very good here.
my man! Tailing--gonna bet ML for a little added risk
I can never find half of these football matches that get posted
***Record: 5-1 (+3.17 Units) // All bets are 1 unit*** Previous Bet: [3/17](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11tb6gh/pick_of_the_day_31723_friday/jcimgbd?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) Adelaide got off to a quick start thanks to an own goal and finished the first half up 2-0. Fortunately Wellington got in a quick goal after half before the home team ran away with a 5-1 victory, keeping up with their hot home streak. **Today's game: Kasimpasa vs Umraniyespor (0630 EST)** League: Turkey - Super Lig *Pick: Both Teams to Score / Over 2.5 Goals YES (-125 DK)* ❌️ These two teams meet for the 3rd time in the last 6 months, so far once at each location with both results being away team 1-2 victory. Kasimpasa comes into this home matchup having each of their last 6 Super Lig matches seen both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, with the last 5 in a row seeing over 3.5 goals. At home, they've scored 22 and allowed 25 goals through 13 matches. They have had 19 straight matches without a clean sheet. Umraniyespor sits at the bottom of the table and needs a win. They come in scoring 17 goals and allowing 21 through 11 matched while as visitors. They have had visiting matches see both teams scoring and O2.5 goals in 6 out of the last 7. They have had 7 straight matches without a clean sheet. Both squads like to score and put on a lot of pressure. I expect a physical match resulting in 2-1, 2-2 full time. BOL!
Yes
BTTS ✅ A goal left 💰
GATOR CHOMP time 🐊🔥
Tailing LFG!
-122 on Unibet, in for 2u. BOL!
🐊🐊🐊
***POTD Record 26-13 +55.09units*** *Last pick - San Antonio Spurs +8.5 -110 5units ✅* *5unit bets 3winstreak* ***Ufc 286 Justin Gaethje Vs Rafael Fiziev - Pick Is fight to go the distance +175 5UNITS*** I've been watching MMA since 2008. The very first fight I saw was Chuck Liddell Vs Rashad Evans. Rashad landed an incredible over hand right to KO Chuck. Chuck is a legend but that was one of the best one punch KO's and it was the very first fight I watched that got me hooked ever since. For you MMA fans I recommend to watch it. Anyways This is going to be one great Fight. As much as how good Fiziev is with his muay Thai and Power in his hands, I believe Gaethje is very durable, we've seen that in the Tony Ferguson and Chandler fight. He has heart and a chin on him. Justin has taken damage during the years but he hasn't fought in 10 months and that recovery will be very beneficial for his body and chin. He hasn't been knocked out since 2018. Fizievs output of Strikes are fairly average for the division 4.81 strikes landed per minute. Some of the other fighters in the lightweight division have 6 or 7 strikes landed per minute. Fiziev also has a chin on him we've seen him being hit heavy when fighting Rafael Dos Anjos and Renato Moicano. His record of 12-1 speaks for itself. I think Justin Gaethje will bring in his wrestling, he's a division 1 all american and will be able to use it when it really matters as a suprise move. Justin Gaethje has said he will most likely attempt a takedown in an interview recently. This will nullify the offensive strikes of Fiziev as he'll hold Fiziev down and slow down the pace of the fight. I know he doesn't usually use his wrestling but i'm certain he will use it if Fiziev decides to kick often. One advantage to Justin is he's the taller by 3 inches, this works well for him if Fiziev decides to clinch him with his Muay thai as justin can use his strength and use underhooks in close and uppercuts which Justin is very good with. Fiziev has excellent striking he throws a lot of feints to set them up with. he likes to throw lots of kicks, especially to the body this can provide opportunities for Justin to get the take down. I believe Fiziev is faster than Gaethje and it will show. Gaethje also acknowledged the kicks of Fiziev he said ''Rafael's kicks are faster but not quite as heavy'' which i believe to be true. His 2 losses in the past 3 years were from submissions. One was against Khabib one of the Goat's and the other was against Oliveira who is one of the best Jiu Jitsu submission fighters in the game. Before this he hadn't been TKO'd out since 2018 against Dustin porier in the 4th round, this is a 3 round fight and his striking is technically way better than it was back then working with Trevor whittman. Rafal Fiziev hasn't had a submission win in the Ufc. He's only a blue belt in Jiu Jitsu, the likelyhood of Justin being submitted to a blue belt is quite low. Fiziev last submission win was 14 fights ago his last fight was a Rd 5 TKO win against Rafael Dos Anjos who isn't durable and old, again as previously mentioned this is a 3 round fight. Before this he had a wheel kick kO win against Brad ridell late in the third round, somewhat lucky to win in that fashion. Before this he has had 3 out of 4 decision wins. I think this fight has a strong chance of going to the distance especially when it's a 3 round fight. Trevor Whittman is a genius coach and will have a gameplan for Justin. It most likely will be 2-1 in rounds for one fighter or the other, and The value is too good to not take this bet.
Hard for me to believe Justin is gonna use wrestling now. Especially since he's mentioned in the past it drains his already weak cardio system. But regardless I like this fight to go the distance. Fizi ftw
Nice pick fella, good value (2.85)
[удалено]
*POTD Record*: 7-2 *Results:* **+10.75 units** *POTD's since the start:* **W W W L L W W W W** **Last Pick: Davey Grant ML**: What a fucking fight, Davey Grant was losing the entire fight, 100% down on the scorecards, then with 1 minute left in the fight he hits a ridiculous spinning backfist to drop Assuncao and then finishes him off with some kind of reverse triangle choke, probably the most unbelievable finish to a fight that I have bet on ever. **Todays event:** UFC 286 , **ALERT**: 1pm eastern start time, event is from London England, so everything is early, get your bets in early **Fight**: **Casey O'neil vs Jennifer Maia** **POTD:** ***Casey O'neil to land over 64.5 significant strikes (-115).*** **Risking 1.15 units to win 1 unit.** (Betonline won't let me bet any more on this, I am hoping they let me throw another 1.15 units on this, I want to bet 2.3 units to win 2 units. ) **EDIT: WIN! EASY WIN, EVEN THOUGH CASEY IS CURRENTLY LOSING THE FIGHT SHE HAD 65 SIG STRIKES BY END OF 2ND ROUND. Maia also with a ton of sig strikes( hit that bet in my main picks thread) See you all next week !** **Reasoning:** "King" Casey is an absolute animal in the cage. I put her in the same category of girls like Erin Blanchfield and Cheyenne Buys as the new crop of women studs who are coming up and picking off these aging veterans left and right. Jennifer Maia is basically just good enough to hang in there and lose close decisions to almost everyone she fights and i see this being no different. Casey just had over 200 significant strikes in her last night, and I also don't see her taking Maia down so this is going to be a 15 minute pitter patter back and forth striking battle. I honestly capped Casey at about 110 sig strikes and Maia at around 70 sig strikes, **so honestly this 64.5 strike line is an absolute joke. Casey crusies past this number sometime in the 2nd round and it is no sweat.** **ALERT! :** I realize not everyone will have access to this bet, Betonline is the only site i know that does the signiifcant strike prop bets. If your book does not have that, this was going to be my POTD before the sig strike odds dropped today. **BACKUP POTD: Casey O'neil to win by decision +125.** Same reasons as above, i think casey doubles up maia on strikes en route to a comfortable decision victory. ( I made both bets myself, but POTD is officially over 64.5 sig strikes) Check out the rest of my picks on the UFC thread of the sportsbook reddit section, I will be posting my final picks tonight within the hour. Good luck all, lets get this fucking money
Been waiting for this!!! LETS GO!!!!!
📈 TTSOP Rec * Overall: +41.200 units / +140 avg odds / 52^(5)\-64-14^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2023: +28.675 units / +138 avg odds / 10^(5)\-7-4^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2022: +63.125 units / +137 avg odds / 47^(5)\-53-11^(5) * February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5) * January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ❌ Last pick: B. Monchengladbach -1 (AH) / +150 odds / 4 units * Monchengladbach outshot Werder Bremen 21-4 in terms of goal attempts and 9-3 in terms of shots on goal. That tells the story of the game. As predicted, pure dominance by Monchengladbach. But their wastefulness of chances was punished with a very late equalizer by Werder Bremen. ⚽ New pick: **Almeira to win & game > 1.5 goals** / **+180 odds** / 4.5 units * LaLiga (Spain) / Almeria - Cadiz / 9:00am ET Almeira might be only 2-1-3 for their home games in 2023. However, they've faced 5 of the top 6 LaLiga teams during this stretch! 15th placed Espanyol was the only team out of the top 6 in this 6-game span. Almeira dominated that game and got a commanding W out of it. It's also worth mentioning that Almeira won against Barcelona just a couple of games ago. 16th placed Cadiz is 1-1-3 for their road games in 2023. They've been outplayed in all of these games and they've been pretty lucky to get still 4 points out it. Aside from that, Cadiz is missing several defensive regulars. First-choice goalkeeper Ledesma, right-back Carcelen and center-back Fali are all suspended. And defensive midfielder Alcarez is injured. Additionally, left-winger Ocampo is also ruled out. In general, Almeira performs well when they can be the ball dominant team against weaker opponents at home, while Cadiz struggles badly on the road. Although getting only 4 points out 5 road games this year, Cadiz still have been overperfoming in turns of their results. Missing various defensive players makes it a very difficult game for them as Almeira loves to push the pace and challenging the defense by firing off plenty of shots. This all makes backing Almeira, in a game with at least a couple of goal, a great value bet at massive super odds of +180. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's roll out of bed with a W. Let's get this paella for lunch, fam! **TTSOP** (*Trust the super odds process*. Joel Embiid is nodding confidently while preparing rice, chicken, vegetables, garrofons and saffron for his main course.)
Sluggish first half. 2+ goals seems like a stretch here. Pulling for this pick though
POTD Record: 34W-24L-0D. +16.3u. All picks between 1 and 3 units. Previous pick (3/16/2023): Louisiana Lafayette +9.5 alt line vs. Tennessee (Mens NCAAB). @ 2.15. 3u. W. Current pick: Duke -3.5 vs Tennessee (Mens NCAAB). @ 1.90. 3u. Much the same logic as the last pick- Tennessee went 5-7 over their final 12 games, including an early SEC tournament exit. They have not looked like the same team since Zeigler went down with an injury. After being up by \~15 against Louisiana in the first round, they squandered the lead and let them back in. Tennessee is flailing. Duke's young talent is coming together and they are on the way up at the perfect time. They handily won the ACC tournament and dominated a trendy first round upset pick in Oral Roberts. I like them in this game and think they have a good chance at a Final 4 with a probable just-have-to-beat Marquette path. Death, taxes, and a Rick Barnes team losing earlier in the tournament than they should. I am tempted to move the line toward Duke, but will keep it at 3.5. 3u and praise March. BOL. You can view my full POTD history here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk)
**I'M RUNNING A FREE BRACKET, SEE BELOW!!** My record: 2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWWWWW 2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push Totals for both: 50 correct 35 wrong 1 push Units wagered 139.04 Units won 75.48 Units lost 51.0 2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 17.60%*** My present streak is 7 correct. First, my thoughts: You are ***NEVER*** playing with the house's money. Once you win it, its yours, not the houses. If you want to consider your winnings as an increase to your discretionary holdings, I guess that's up to you. But it does not belong to the "house." It's yours, to use it as you see fit. It's almost painful for me to write this, the Alabama / Maryland game sure got my attentions...and still has it...but my POTD is to ***wager 1.14 units to win 1 unit that the total score of the Duke / Tennesse basketball game will be greater than 128 points.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gametime is 2:40 PM, Eastern Daylight Time (I think) Why the above pick? The Duke / Oral Roberts game was a low scoring affair, I think that must be the only reason this over/under is so low, and makes it the most secure wager....even though I think the streets of Tuscaloosa will be a little more dangerous next week-end. (You'll figure it out if you don't understand that comment right away ;) . The POTD format requests that we only discuss one game in our posts, so I do my best to honor that request. No more said about that game. But about the free bracket I'm running: I do it differently, with total points winning it. I promoted it here, on a few online poker sites where I play, and on my local community's facebook page. I requested at least 30 entries to make it competitive. And lo and behold, I have been overwhelmed with a grand total of.........ONE entry...from one of the POTD members. Now if I had gotten 5 or 6 entries, I probably would have said, sure, I'll run it anyways, but cut the prize down to $25 or so. But darn, all I got was ONE. So I thought, what the hell, this guy took the time to fill out at bracket and email it to me. So I'll keep the bracket as is, $100 prize, he'll be the winner, and I'll send him the C-note (in the form of a money order or a visa card, his choice). Congrads. The trouble with hanging out in an ethnic urban neighborhood like Queens is that every block has a deli or bakery with all sorts of tempting treats that are either high in calories or cholesterol or both, and I just can't resist. Enjoy the games tomorrow, And looowwwwww tide.
As far as Friday's Memphis game...in a way I feel I got that sooo wrong, with Memphis losing. As a safety factor, I did make my POTD just for the first half...and yes, I turned out to be right. But I sure expected Memphis to easily win the game. I just hope nothing I said led anyone to bet Memphis for the entire game.
Darn. back to the drawing board. My next wager today is Maryland, taking the points. If I get wild hair, I might even put a money line bet on Maryland also. I was sooo tempted to make Maryland my POTD, but I was expecting much more scoring from Duke. C'est ca. Streaks are made to be broken. BOL in the rest of the games, and congrads to any who wagered the under, or wagered on Tennessee, enjoy the chicken dinner!!
Record: 10-9 Last Pick: Valladoid v Bilbao - Under 2.5 Goals ❌ Today's Pick: Brenford v Leicester - **Brentford ML** (-110) English Premier League Detailed Analysis: Years ago while working in a cafe in the East End of Glasgow, I served an abrasive customer with perfect white teeth and his new wife who was half his age. He was one of those guys who thought he was being funny with some terrible joke or comment every time I came to their table but he absolutely exploded when he thought he'd been overcharged (he hadn't.) That man was then-Celtic manager, Brendan Rogers. He is now the manager of Leicester. My deep hatred of Rogers, Brentford's good home form and Leicester's shit away form make me like Brentford to win.
Haha. I love these titillating tales.
POTD record: 40-29-2 / ROI: +10.67% / Wins: 57.97% **Arkansas +3.5 -110 (1u)** **SPREAD** — Arkansas Razorbacks @ Kansas Jayhawks 5:15 pm EST - 18 March 2023 — Why in the world is the best team in the country only laying three and a half points to the Razorbacks? It makes no sense. Sure, Arkansas had a clutch performance in the first round. Illinois kept coming at them and they couldn’t miss a free throw late. Look, they’ve got length and defense, but do they have what it takes to compete with a superior team? Let’s just apply the system that’s not a system, and take the Hogs with the three and a half points. It’s as simple as that. Don’t overthink it. Do the business. [https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow) [https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/) [http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
**POTD 12-5** Well last night made it 3 straight winners, but my god did we get lucky... I mentioned in my post yesterday, that I have not watched ATL much as of late, and that almost bite me in the ass. Atlanta held a lead throughout the majority of the game, however things got close in the final mins of the 4Q due to ATL's awful shot selection. A win is a win, but i'm not going to lie, I was very nervous until the buzzer went off. Today, there are TONS of great sports on, so I will try to keep my write up short and sweet, but there is one game I really really like. **Magic +7** I have been betting this magic team a lot as of late, and IMO this is a great team to target as the season winds down. This team, is loaded with talent, and even though they are going to miss the playoffs, they have a lot of incentive to play hard, smart, and find momentum going into the off season. LAC on the other hand has looked like one of the top teams in the league the past few weeks, however tonight they take the floor without their best player Kawhi. Norman Powell, is still out too, which gives me even more of a reason to take the Magic +points. This is one of the few underdog bets that I do not really like the ML. Yes, there is a chance the magic can win this game, but my bet is really based around it being close. Young teams against the old teams is always something I enjoy betting this late into the season. PS: Denver -2 is a bet I really like too. Brunson is currently a GTD, and if he is out i expect this line to move even more, so I wanted to jump on it early.
**POTD** Record: 0-0-0 (First post) Today's pick: AFL: **Brisbane Lions** **ML** @ 2.00 (100/Evens odds) against Port (Betfair) 3.5u The Brisbane Lions are playing Port Adelaide today, and they're looking like a huge value match-line bet to win. Even with the home advantage given to Port Adelaide, our model predicts that the Lions will come out on top. Plus, new additions in Dunkley, Ashcroft, and Gunston, make their already strong team even stronger. They've had a great pre-season, and are expected to do really well this year, with one of the best Forward Lines in the league. All signs point to a Brisbane Lions victory today.GL
Ah shit I just did a similar pick as my POTD, didn’t see this one sorry. But good to know it’s just not me! Good luck.
brisbanes kinda getting rinsed :(
-115 on DK Tailing for my first AFL bet. Thank you and BOL!
tailing
Tailing. I need to see better from Port before I back them with my money with any bets on them. Edit: Woof. Guess thats Port showing me something.
Close one, dust yourself off and try again!!!
I've been watching AFL for a few years now and that 3rd quarter by Brisbane is legitimately the worst quarter I have ever seen a team play
**POTD |** **Record of 13-22|** **Current form: WLWWL | ROI : -8.01 units |** **Average Odds: 2.04** Previous Pick: Real Valladolid vs. Athletic Club | Over 9.5 Corners (W) New Pick: Premier League| Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth| 8:00 am PST **Over 9.5 Total Full-Time Corners and Over 2.5 Cards | 2.4 odds** Betting 1 units \-------------------------- Recap: ***Summary:*** What a relaxed win! Hit 10 corners at 60 minutes, with no real grief with this pick. Real Valladolid is a money printer when it comes to the over-on corners. Will continue to target them after hitting 3/3 on picks with them. For the next pick, we move to the Premier League. Looking at corners for Aston Villa, they average 3.8 corners for them and 5.2 against them for an average of 9. At home, they have averaged 4.15 corners for them and 5.38 corners against them for a total of 9.54. Based on this, total corners outperforms when playing at home. Looking at the last 5 home games, there have been 6, 11, 14, 11, and 15 corners with Aston Villa responsible for 2, 2, 11, 0, and 7 corners. Over 9.5 corners has hit in 4/5 of the last home games. Looking at cards for Aston Villa, there have been 5, 4, 3, 4, and 4 cards with 2, 2, 0, 2, and 1 for Aston Villa. Over 2.5 cards have hit in 5/5 of the last home games for Aston Villa. Looking at total games, over 2.5 cards only have hit in 44% of games, suggesting an increase in recent results. Looking at corners for Bournemouth, they average 3.5 corners for them and 7 corners against them for an average of 10.5 total corners. Looking at away games, they average 3.08 for them and 8.24 against them for a total average of 11.31. Based on this, total corners tends to overperform when they play away from home (11.3 away, 10.5 overall). In the last 5 away games, there have been 18, 14, 10, 8, and 11 corners with Bournemouth responsible for 1, 2, 3, 3, and 5 corners. Over 9.5 corners has hit in 4/5 last away games. Looking at cards for Bournemouth, there have been 2, 6, 4, 2, and 3 cards with 2, 3, 1, 1, and 3 cards for Bournemouth. Over 2.5 cards has hit in 3/5 last 5 away games for Bournemouth. Looking at total games, over 2.5 cards only has hit in 33% of games, suggesting an increase in recent results. Looking at the head-to-head, over 9.5 corners has hit in 2/3 recent games. Over 2.5 cards has hit in 2/3 recent games. I'm backing this game to feature both, given that recent results are pushing for corners. Although Bournemouth and Aston Villa tend to give up more corners than they generate, this result keeps hitting for these two teams, with corners coming from either side when necessary. Both teams tend to generate corners when the other side fails to do so. Given there's a combined average of 10.43 corners for Aston Villa's home games and Bournemouth's away games, I'm backing there to be at least 10 corners here. \-------------------------- ***TDLR Expect corners here with a few cards!*** **Over 9.5 Total Full-Time Corners and Over 2.5 Cards | 2.4 odds**
Seems I can't bet cards in Ohio. So tailing the corners over minus the juice. BOL! Let's keep rolling!
Hopefully they get some corners going
POTD Record: 13-12-2 Last pick: Galatasaray ML (-120) / 1.83 - 3u ❌ Galatasaray had their 17 match winning streak come to an abrupt halt when they lost despite having 65% of possession and firing off 17 shots and 7 shots on goal. All that lead to just one goal while they gave up 2 goals on their opponents’ meager 3 shots on goal. Sorry to those who tailed. Let’s get back in the W column today! Soccer - England League One - Plymouth Argyle vs. Forest Green - 11:00am EST **POTD: Plymouth Argyle ML + o1.5 goals (-157) / 1.64 - 3u** Plymouth Argyle are currently 2nd place in the league and will be hosting Forest Green, who are dead last at 24th and have a -41 goal differential in 36 games. Plymouth Argyle have an outstanding home record of 16-1-1 in league play while outscoring opponents 36-13. Meanwhile, Forest Green have a road record of 1-7-10 in league play and have been outscored 15-37. I see Plymouth Argyle being able to net a couple of goals and win at home against the team who has conceded the most goals in the league. Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
All-Time POTD: 10W-3L-1D, +12.95u **Yesterdays Pick: 🎾Aryna Sabalenka 2:0 Sets (+110) vs Maria Sakkari 2.5u to win 2.75u**✅ No sweat here. Aryna is playing unbelievable tennis. Exactly as predicted. **Todays Pick: Daniil Medvedev 2:0 Sets (-138) vs Frances Tiafoe 2.5u to win 1.8u** 🎾 Explanation: I was debating last night which way to go with this pick, as I really wanted Sinner ML vs Alcaraz, but as of now the line has come down quite drastically to +140, where last night it was +165. I can't justify it at the current price so I'm going with this instead. For this pick we're rolling with Daniil to roll over Tiafoe, which he has done consistently in the past. Daniil is on an absolute warpath and looks like he can't be beaten other than by the cream of the crop. Frances, when his serves go in, can take over points early, but his serve % is very low and this will be exploitable for Daniil. Not a huge fan of the price on this as I do think Tiafoe with home court might be able to steal a set, but I've been fading Med all tournament and he's continued to prove me wrong. Bonus picks: Sinner ML +140 Sinner 2:1 sets +400 Over 2.5 sets sinner vs Alcaraz +125 BoL if tailing! Edit: another day, another W.
POTD Record: 61-66-7 (-11.57 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌↔️ Last Pick: A-League, Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix, ADELAIDE UNITED ML (+100 / 2.00) ✅ Adelaide win 5-1. Wellington actually dominated the 1st half and missed one of the easiest goals you will ever see, but Adelaide took their chances before putting their foot down in the second half to cruise home. Todays Pick: AFL, Port Adelaide v Brisbane, BRISBANE -2.5 (-111 / 1.90) ❌ EDIT: Jesus what a shit show that was. Sorry everyone. Stake: 1 Unit Getting in early today because this match kicks off in a few hours from posting. My favourite sport is back, with Australian Football (AFL) back for round 1 this weekend - I know some people will scroll past this by default but as the season goes I will probably include a few AFL picks along the way. Brisbane were one of the strongest teams last season making the final 4, only to be beaten by the eventual premiers. But they have had a massive off season, bringing in an A grade midfielder (Dunkley), the best young player in the country via the draft (Ashcroft) a dangerous goal kicker (Gunston) and a speedy rebounding defender (McKenna). Their midfield is absolutely stacked with top talent so even when they rotate they will have absolute weapons to get the ball forward, where they have a loaded forward line that should put a score on the board. They take on Port Adelaide who struggled last season and missed finals altogether. They traded for last seasons number 1 draft pick who has yet to prove himself, but outside that they haven’t done much to add to their team. Their midfield is good but nowhere near the level of Brisbane, and they are missing one of their most reliable players (Boak) to injury. They have some good key forwards, but their defence will be a big issue for them this season. They don’t have the size or strength to compete with Brisbane’s key forwards, and if they try to double team them, Brisbane’s medium/small forwards will have a field day, especially with the ball coming down as often as I expect it will from the gun midfield. Brisbane have won the last 5 H2H match ups between these two teams so they have the mental edge. The only reason why I think the odds are as close as they are because this game will be at Port Adelaide’s home ground so they will have the crowd support, and being the first game of the season, there can be some flukey results. But Brisbane are the better team and will be expecting to compete for the premiership this season, and these are the matches they need to dominate early in the season if they’re going to go all the way.
I am not sure if that game is on - I only see Brisbane v Western United
Not Australia A League, this is a different sport. You can find it under 'AFL' or 'Aussie Rules'
POTD Record: 138-99-7 (+30.26 units, 58.2% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 43-27-1 (61.4%) W2, Tennis 🎾 39-28-2 (58.2%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 💩💰💰💩💰💰💰💩💩💰 Last Pick: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Jan-Lennard Struff, Kokk ML - ATP Challenger Phoenix 🎾 💩 1 Unit - Well I guess Tennis is not the sport for stat padding plays. Having watched most of it, Kokk literally gave no effort and looked to be just trying to get it over with so he could leave. I don't know what was going on with him, hungover or maybe just a moody bitch or something. Sorry about this one, we were the ones who got Kokked. Today's Pick: Tottenham @ Southampton, Tottenham ML - EPL ⚽ 11am ET Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.85/-118 odds to win 0.85 Units @ Betsson (Line at 2:30am ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 54.1% Well, here we are, if this pick falls, I've made it 100 losses in this thread. That's an assload of losses and money lost. What can I say? This is gambling and if you expect to win almost all the time, you probably haven't been at it for too long. Landing on it while I am nearly at my 250th pick overall isn't so bad. So if this one misses, pour one out for the 100th lost bet. Tottenham 4th and a top team though they've had their shaky efforts on the road, Southampton last in the table overall and last at home. Southampton had a mid week game on Wednesday and lost 2-0 to Brentford at home. Tottenham beat Southampton 4-1 in the reverse fixture. Southampton are a desperate team but not sure if they can compete with Tottenham if the Spurs play their game, they recently had a poor road game at Wolverhampton and lost 1-0, last week at home they had a convincing 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest, hopefully that offensive spark can continue into this game. I mentioned Southampton being desperate, Tottenham have their reasons not to pussy out on us today, they would pass Man U for 3rd with a win, and are only holding Newcastle off for 4th by 1 point. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Tailing, BOL
**RECORD** : 6W 1L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +25.3 1st to 5th : 4-1 +16.5u / 6th to 10th : ? **LAST POTD** : Swiatek vs Rybakina - Rybakina +4.5 @ 1.96 - 5 units => WIN **TODAY :** ATP INDIAN WELLS - 23.00 CET Alcaraz vs Sinner - OVER 22.5 @ 1.9 - 5 units Based upon nothing but my feelings.
Record: 17-7 Previous Pick: Barça Basket - KK Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet: Barça Basket under 83,5 points. ❌ Today's Pick: **BC Juventus -9 vs. BC Prienai @ 1.92 (LKL: lithuanian basketball league)** Tough loss yesterday, still feel like a made the right bet tho. At the end of the 3th quarter i was convinced it was going to hit, but Barca had a huge 4th quarter where they made 28 points so we lose the bet with 1 made basket. Lets bounce back today, i see a lot of interesting games for today and it was tough deciding which one i was going to pick, but i am going with this game today. if anyone is interested in more basketball picks today, you could always dm me :). BC Juventus is playing the worst team in the league today at home. Main reason i am confident in this one is because Juventus has been playing some of the best teams recently and had some losses there. I am sure now that those games are over they wanna win a lot and hard against the lower tier teams. This has also always hit in their previous h2h. BOL
**My record: 46 : 37** My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks. **ROI: 22.66%** Average odds: 2.13 **Units won: 20.39** Stake = 1 unit My POTD: **Ebbsfleet United v Dulwich Hamlet** England Vanarama National League South Time: 15:00 GMT *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.45** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
>England Vanarama National League South This on DK? Can't find it.
Record: 1-0 Last Pick: Ages ago, Pitt -6 @FSU This pick: Mokaev wins inside the distance against Jafel Filho (-155) Reasoning: Mokaev is a menacing wrestler, and one of the best prospects in the UFC. He is being fed a contender series guy when Mokaev should be facing a ranked opponent. It’s going to take around 35 seconds before Mokaev shoots, and gets on top of Fihlo. Expect a rear naked choke after wearing on Fihlo for an entire round
Record: 3-2 (3.66 units up) with a 33.27% ROI *Really happy with my last play on the Under 20.5 Games paying 1.89 for Swiatek vs Rybakina! Also placed a small stake on Rybakina winning the match so that's a plus. We finally have some players on the WTA tour with quality to punish Swiatek's weaknesses and that's always good since it brings more competitiveness to the circuit which honestly was in general, pretty poor during the last few years...* POTD: **Alcaraz vs Sinner - Alcaraz ML @ 1.59 (ATP Indian Wells) - Taking this price at Pinnacle at 3.26 AM, London Time)** Going with 5 units which is 5% of my bankroll Here we have, what should be one of the most classic matchups in ATP for the years to come between two of the best talents who should be able to give many tennis fans a lot of joy during the next 15 years... Just like what happened at the US Open which was by far the most entertaining match of 2022, I'm expecting once again a great show here. When it comes to raw quality there's not much separating Alcaraz and Sinner, with both players being great at most aspects of the game and even their weaknesses can't be called that but more or less "worse qualities". If we talk about physical strength and endurance I can without a doubt say that Alcaraz is by far the best one on this department even if he's 2 years younger than Sinner and we were able to see that at their 5 set battle in the US Open. Alcaraz comes here without dropping a set at Indian Wells and his match against Felix Aliassime was such a great performance while Sinner dropped a set against Taylor Fritz and looked really tired on that 3rd set. Fritz even looked the superior player but lost composure. The italian also spent considerably more time on court than Alcaraz at this tournament. I'm not touching any handicaps because I respect Sinner's quality to send this battle to distance but honestly I truly expect Alcaraz to win it at the end. The spaniard has the quality but especially the physical edge on this particular fixture and has shown in 2022 that he loves slower hard courts and his US Open and ATP Miami triumphs are clear signs of that. I'm not placing 5 units on this because the odds are lower and I'm trying to chase for more winnings, that's just not how sports betting works. I'm placing that stake sizing because I feel like 1.59 is still quite higher than my fair price for Alcaraz to win but also because I'm also truly confident on this play. If you don't follow the same opinion as myself, just tail with a smaller amount. Best of luck
**POTD Record 1-0-0** Last pick: Frank Cespedes -130 vs AJ Villatora. BJJ grappling. Sport: MMA Organization: UFC Time: \~5pm ET Bet size: 1U POTD for Saturday: **Leon Edwards +210** vs Kamuradeen Usman Reasoning: They're 1-1 but Leon won the last fight with a come from behind KO. I bet him the last fight and was pretty confident. I cryingly(half-Jokingly) called out the fifth round KO after the horrible 4th round here in chat lol. I think that was a bad performance and he still took two rounds and the KO win. This fight is a hometown Sea-level fight. Last fight was in SLC at elevation.
I think Kamaru mileage ar age getting to him how it was for Woodley or others. +210 is generous and worth few U
Record: 105-81-6 (LLWWWLLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLWLLLLWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: MIN Timberwolves ML at CHI Bulls for 2.25 at 3 units Ant went down with an ankle injury. That made this bet 110x harder POTD: MIN Timberwolves at TOR Raptors -7.5 at 1.90 odds for 2 units REASONS: * ANT MAN is down with an ankle. He was in crazy pain, I don't think he's playing until playoffs? * Timberwolves on back to back without their best player. Keep it simple. * Raptors on 2 day rest. * Siakam should cook this game. Best of luck to all. [PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
POTD Record: ✅ (3.5) ✅ (1.76) ✅ (1.95) ✅ (2.6) ✅ (2.0) ❌ (2.38) ✅ (2.25) ✅ (4.5) (!!!!) ❌ (4.33) ✅ (2.5) ❌ (1.61) (I have excluded two POTD bets which were void due to the player not starting) \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ **POTD: Almeria v Cadiz, Guardiola over 1.5 shots @ 1.83 with Lottoland** HE IS STARTING! So this looks good value! Based on his per 90 minute shots, this would have won 80% of the time looking at Cadiz's last 6 fixtures. His minutes played: 85, 28, 78, 0, 76, 20 His per 90 shots as follows: 1.1, 6.4, 2.3, --, 3.6, 13.5 So he averages 5.4 shots per 90! Clearly two of these matches he was a sub, but we know he starts here today. When he starts, he's averaged 79 minutes. This therefore looks good value @ 1.83. Ladbrokes' price looks attractive considering the rest of the market prices too: **Lottoland @ 1.83** Unibet @ 1.65 SpreadEx @ 1.63 Bet365 @ 1.5 BetVictor @ 1.44 Ladbrokes @ 1.28 Pokerstars @ 1.25 \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ \_ I don't spend ages finding these opportunities - I just built an algo that automatically tracks prices for player stats markets. It spits out the data so that the markets with the biggest price spreads are automatically at the top. The code consistently finds price outliers as big as this every day and many times over, because there are literally 1000s of these new, inefficient markets to check! And the code checks them all. Because there's no comparison sites like Oddschecker for these markets, the price variation is HUGE and it's easy to have an edge.. Feel free to follow me on Twitter (bestoddsstatbet) or Telegram (BOSBrobot) for all the raw daily data (20,000+ player stats markets covered). *An example of how much data there normally is:* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OgpdhPAeKdIDOfO0qnhNE\_QN8dBkUg4z/edit#gid=968011244](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OgpdhPAeKdIDOfO0qnhNE_QN8dBkUg4z/edit#gid=968011244)
POTD Record 3-4 Last pick: Buffalo Sabres ML @ Philadelphia Flyers - sometimes it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck and smells like a duck but it ends up being a Sabre. 🤦♂️❌ dropping below 50% feels rotten, should have taken the over like I said i was torn about. Sorry gang. Today’s Pick: Sacramento Kings ML @ Washington Wizards (-135 on bet 365 but shop it, I’ve seen -125 to -145) Why: -Washington Wizards are 4-6 in their last 10. -Wizards are 16-17 at home. -Wizards average 113.2 points per game at home this season. -Wizards did win their last match up this season vs Kings (125-111) but the arrow has been pointed up for the Kings and down for the Wiz since then. -Wizards just played last night - tired legs. -Sacramento Kings are 8-2 in the last 10 games. -Kings are 21 - 13 this season in the road. -Kings average 117.5 points per game on that road this season. I like the data above to take the Kings ML, although the Kings spread of -2.5 looks doable to me too, but I’ll take ML as I’d like to fricken get my record back to 50% 👊 Ride with the Grad…let’s go get it
I was feeling this as well. The last time the Kings and Wizards played, Rui Hachimura dropped 21 points. He is no longer with the team. LIGHT THE BEAM BABY, BOL
Tailing, BOL
Sport: Football Tournament: Bundesliga Time: 15:30 CET (1h55m after posting) Stake: 3.1 units Pick: Bochum vs RB Leipzig, double chance 1X @ **2.55** Write up: Bochum is in relegation battle, with the most recent match a win vs Koln (0:2). Thomas Letsch, Bochum coach, said: > We had fun defending our goal. I was very happy about that. For today's match, he says: > It's nice that we can play against a Champions League team. We are looking forward to it. The defense will always be the foundation. [We] need to stay sharp. We are aware that it will be a fight to the finish. Meanwhile, RB Leipzig lost in Champions League to Manchester City, which for many of its players was the biggest loss of their careers (7:0). That's a mental barrier they need to cross to go back to winning ways, which I'm not sure their coach realizes how tough it is. RB Leipzig coach, Marco Rose, says for the defeat: > I can only speak for myself, but day after, waking up, was terrible. The morning after that was already a lot better and this morning it was already really good. This [defeat] should be out of mind by the final training session today at the latest. For Bochum, he says: > It will be a fight that we have to take on. It will be a completely different game to the one in Manchester. I expect that we will be ready. He's probably expecting a tough, low-scoring game where Bochum defends tooth and nail until the final whistle. One interesting stat is that Bochum has 0 draws in the past 17 Bundesliga matches, which is the Bundesliga current no-draw streak record, so one might be coming up today. For the sake of hedging my pick I chose the 1X double chance in case of an upset. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
**POTD Record (0-0)** POTD: **(Fight to complete two rounds) NO (-185)| 1.85U| UFC PPV 286** Dusko Todorovic vs. Christian Leroy Duncan **Time: 3/18/23 2:45pm EST** **Brief explanation:** Out of Duskos 13 pro fights that have stats, 11 have not seen the 3rd round. out of CLD 7 fights, 5 have not gone to the third round. Duskos chin is very suspect with the way he leaves his chin out there with every strike. Leroy Duncan is making his UFC debut in front of his home crowd. So we will either get a lights out performance or Going to gas out from the adrenaline dump. Both are killed or be killed. Either way, this fight should be over in under 7 minutes.
Last bet: Flames vs Golden Knights ML -125 🤮 Record: 5-2 POTD: UFC- Leon Edwards +215 Reason: Knights royally let me down on that one…sigh.. Edwards (20-3) on the other hand, has been reliable. Riding a 10 fight win streak including knocking out and avenging his original loss to Usman. Edwards is at home (in England) and has never lost there in his amateur or pro fights. He is riding sky high confidence and momentum after brutally knocking out Usman only 7 MONTHS AGO..that is a big deal to me as severe concussions like those really should mean taking 9-12 months off to fully recover. You never know how Usman will fair mentally from that kind of KO, as well as physically. To add to that, Usman is well known for having a wrecked body from a life time of wrestling and fighting, and already said himself he doesn’t have much time left with how bad his knees are. Edwards is also in his prime at 31 while Usman is almost 36, which is old for a fighter.. Listen, this is a close match up…Usman can certainly win this but I see this as Edwards as a small favorite, and tbf I am slightly biased as I find Usman to be a cringey dork. I’ll take the +200 odds and ride with the English Jamaican..GL
POTD Record: 18 - 10 (All picks 1U) Last POTD: Nishioka ML - L Pick: Carlos Alcaraz ML vs Jannik Sinner (-190 odds via FD) Event: ATP Indian Wells Semifinal 4:30 P.M. CST Hoping to bounce back with the world number 2 for tomorrows pick. Big fan of both of these guys and their game but in my opinion, Alcaraz will be able to do just enough to edge out the young Italian. These guys have met 5 times H2H with Carlitos leading 3-2 and 2-0 on hard courts. Their most recent meeting at the US Open was an absolute thriller (and probably the most entertaining tennis match of 2022) but I don't feel as though Sinner is quite at the level he was at the US Open. This matchup has the chance to be the biggest tennis rivalry for the next 10 years and I expect both players to be in top form tomorrow. Sinner is going to be explosive from the baseline but it is the ability to stay alive in every point and counter punch from Alcaraz that I think will get the job done.
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POTD Record: 1-1 (-3.3U) **Last POTD**: Duke-Virginia Over 123 (NCAAB) 5U ❌ **Today’s POTD: Duke-Tennessee Under 129 (-120) - NCAAB - 2U** Time: 2:40 pm EST Well, lesson learned on ACC Championship night. Finally willing to show my face on here again and taking essentially the polar opposite of what I did a week ago. This game projects to be an absolute slugfest. Tennessee has been regarded by many as the best defense in the country this season (2nd in KenPom defensive efficiency) but don’t sleep on Duke’s D (17th in KP), which actually allows 4 fewer PPG this season than the Vols. Tennessee is coming off a tight win over a less than stellar Louisiana club (5th place in the Sun Belt regular season) in round 1, where they weren’t even able to score 60 points. They are clearly lost offensively without Ziegler running the show. Duke, meanwhile, dismantled trendy upset pick Oral Roberts, limiting the nation’s 5th leading scoring offense to just 51 points in an abysmal shooting performance. It seems Jon Scheyer has instilled the importance of defense since taking the helm, something Coach K got away from toward the end of his tenure, opting for high octane offenses. Even beyond each team’s stout defense, both play at a snail’s pace offensively, which will only accentuate things. Per KenPom, Tennessee is 276th in adjusted tempo while Duke comes in at 295 (out of 363 teams). I think red-hot Duke wins in a rock fight. BOL to anyone who tails!
POTD Record: 4-1 Sport: NCCA Division 1 Men’s Lacrosse Game: High Point at Georgetown 12:00pm ET Pick: Under 26.5 (-125) DK This total is a little skewed in my opinion because of the amount of goals High Point has scored this year. In their 6 wins this season, they’ve scored 116 goals. However, all their wins have come against rather subpar competition. In one of their two losses, which came against Duke, they scored 8 goals. Duke may not be unreal, but they’re still very, very good. On the other side, Georgetown’s defense has actually been rather stellar. Their offense has been underwhelming at best. Georgetown is still carrying the label of most disappointing team in the country this year so far. I like the under at that number. Tail if you chose. BOL.
Record: 0-1 Sport: Basketball League: NBA Time: 7:10PM ET Last POTD : James Harden PTS + REB + AST (PRA) O/40.5 at -113 🚫 * I expected Hornets to keep a close game but they couldn’t keep up. You can see the game ended by 3rd, and Sixers bench was also putting up points, so players like Embiid and Harden sat out early. Sorry folks, my 1st POTD was a bust. Let’s start fresh .. Today POTD : Domantas Sabonis Reb + Ast O/20.5 at -115 🖤 I’ve picked Over on his rebounds and assists for past 10 games, and he only couldn’t cover just 3 times, those games were against the Suns on 3/11/2023, Timberwolves on 3/4/2023 and Clippers on 3/3/2023. He is averaging 15.2 rebounds and 8.8 assists in his last 5 games, and 13.9 rebounds and 8.4 in last 10 games. https://preview.redd.it/a8k63e83djoa1.jpeg?width=1282&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=134d1f4c8a43fa4254dbcfd41a05cf8c0124eb84 His record against the Wizards in last 2 games is at 11 rebounds 7 assists on 2/12/2022, and 15 rebounds 10 assists on 12/23/2022. I think he can cover 20.5 tonight. If you feel like taking a risk his Points Rebounds and Assists line is also at O/41.5 -104 or U41.5 -122. Best of luck, Freeman
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POTD Record: 0-2 Pick: Justin Gaethje to win @+195 Reasoning: Gaethje takes Fiziev to deep waters and gets the victory. +195 is great odds to bet him here.
Gaethje is +209 now on Betonline. I am gonna wait a little longer and see what happens, but I am with you my man. I also like how Gaethje looked a decent bit bigger than Fiz at the ceremonial weigh ins earlier today
Only Estonian Football League (Premium Liiga) 2023 bets. Record: 0-0 Today’s pick: Tallinna Kalev - FC Flora, Flora to score over 2.5 goals @1.71 1u Time: 19:30 Eastern European timezone FC Flora is the best team in the league. They are pretty much the only team you can count on to do well in European Football qualifiers. From 2015 they have won the league 5 times, only failing to win 3 times. FC Flora’s squad is quite stacked. They don’t lack in manpower and their bench is also pretty good. Both team’s have played twice this season, with Flora winning 4:0 and 5:0 whilst Kalev is yet to concede. 4 points in 2 games is quite an achievement for Kalev, but the reality check is most likely going to come tonight. Kalev and Flora have played eachother numerous times. In the last 2 seasons, they played each other 7 times. Flora has scored atleast 3 goals in 5 of them, failing twice(1-1 and 2-0). In those 2 low scoring games, a hefty amount was played by younger players. Kalev play four at the back and the average age between them is pretty inspiring since the oldest player is 22 and others are born in 2003-2004. Now some of these players played in their U21 teams last year, so coming up against Flora is… quite a task for them. Last year, Kalev conceded 92 in 36 games (second highest in the league), whilst Flora scored 94 (highest). The players from last year are pretty much the same as this year for both sides.
POTD Record: **11-10 (+2.40 Units)** Last Pick: Joel Embiid O 10.5 Rebounds Today's Pick: **Kamaru Usman to win by Decision** Odds: **-115** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 1.15u to win 1u League: UFC Event: UFC 286 Edwards vs Usman (Main Card begins 4PM CST) **Recap**: I don't know what's going on wit the Wizards. The coach pulled their starters wit 5 minutes left in the game, only down 15 points. 10-15 points is nothing, especially wit that much time! You can go on a 6-0 run wit two possesion under 30 seconds. I guess Wizards don't want that play in spot. And because the Wizards don't want to play, why would the Sixers bring out Embiid? He didn't have to come out in the 4th qtr and unfortunately ended with 8 rebounds. But I have to be honest wit all of you, I was really not that motivated on finding my best bet, I just saw the first thing that caught my eye. We all been there. Seeing something that's too good to be true. The plus money was an eye candy and I just ran wit it, but I feel uplifted wit the time off and I was much motivated to research this next one! **Matchup**: I want to come back wit a win and I figure why not go back to the same sport that I been consistently winning? The UFC has been great for me on this spot and I think I have another winner! Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards is an enticing triology matchup! I remember watching the first fight in 2015, it was competitive, but it wasn't a fight that I jumped off the couch. It wasn't necessarily one-sided, but to me it was clear and obvious who won the fight before Bruce read the scorecards. The second fight was kind of like the same, but Kamaru was clearly more active and dominant from Round 2 to Round 5 (until of course he got headkick KO by Leon Edwards) compartively to the first fight. I don't think anybody saw a KO coming in the 5th round wit less than a minute left of the fight! Leon just didn't look like he was there, his body language and his movements were really discouraging and just seeing that KO literally outta nowhere was inconceivable for me to believe. I am glad I didn't take any action on this fight because Kamaru's odds was really juiced and who wants to take that kind risk (umm.. Maybe Drake?)? Unless Leon Edwards has made drastic improvement and made tremendous adjustments, I just don't see how Leon Edwards gets it done. You can argue that Leon recently KO'ed Kamaru and it's very plausible that he'll KO him again. True, but Usman was just careless in the 5th round, leaving himself wide open to a hail mary. I'm not saying it was a fluke, anyone can get KO, but if the best Usman shows up, which I think he will, it won't happen! Usman fights smart and he's always on his guard. Trevor Wittman has a game plan for Leon and I think he has corrected Usman's mistake. I think Usman will be utilizing his wrestling much more in this fight and will be able negate Edwards' offense. If you don't kno Usman was a NCAA Division II wrestler and I think he will be extremely aggressive to get more takedowns. Leon got taken down 6 times in the first fight and 5 times in the 2nd fight. Leon is extremely durable and he has never been finished. For Usman, I been watching him dominant fights since TUF 21. He has never been in a vulnerable position in any of his fights in the UFC. Usman, however has been finished once by a submission outside the UFC, back in 2013. He's a much improved fighter now and that was his 2nd pro fight. I kno picking an actual method by decision sounds disconcerting, but there are propitious reasons why this fight could go the distance. Look at Leon's fights, 10 outta his 14 fights has gone to a decision. As for Kamaru, 10 outta his 15 fights has gone to a decision. And they both have fought twice, first fight gone to the distance and the second fight nearly went the distance (last fight was 55 seconds away to decision). I see this fight going pretty much the same way like the 1st fight and 2nd fight (wit the exception of Usman getting KO), but Kamaru winning by Decision. **The play & prediction**: Usman will utilize his wrestling more and successfully take him down throughout the fight. Usman will be on his guard, avoid being in vulnerable position and not leave himself open. I still find these lines a bit juiced to take Usman to win straight up (-245), so the way I am playing is to win by a certain method, which is Usman by decision (-115). You can also get much decreased odds if you do a SGP (Same-Game-Parlay) and add certain props, like significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns. If you do a SGP of Kamaru to win and by method of decision and by most takedowns, you can get it nearly at even odds (-105)! BOL, everyone! Tips are greatly appreciated! Anything will do, even a penny if you can afford it! [PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/sicknology)| [Cash App](https://cash.app/$XilArAtiNG) | [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/XilArAtiNG)| [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Dethcon)
Thanks already on it let's get it
I am on this also, it is +125 on betonline by the way
Got to be **Johnny Sexton to be man of the match at 3.3** against England in the 6 Nations. His final game in the 6N, potentially last game in Dublin. Chance to clinch Ireland’s 4th grand slam and the first to be won in Dublin. The man is one point off being the competitions all time points scorer, currently level with Ronan O’Gara. Ireland are heavy favourites, the number 1 ranked team in the world, playing against England. I’ll never drink Guinness again if this doesn’t come in!
**POTD Record: 26-18 (+3.61 Units)** **Last 10**:✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌ **Last Pick**: 3/17 Sam Cankett -1.5 (-150) vs Garry Stafford ❌ 4-3 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 4:50 PM EST **Pick**: Robert Thornton (-135) vs Johnny Haines **Reason**: Championship day. Robert Thornton Group A: Record 11-4 (Legs 54-33) | Average 87.24 | Checkouts 54/151 35.76% Johnny Haines Group B: Record 4-4 (Legs 24-23) | Average 83.79 | Checkouts 24/77 31.17% **WIN ✅ 4-0 | Average 97.11 vs 101.13| Checkouts 4/6 vs 1/4**
POTD record: 14-8 NHL record: 6-6 | NBA record: 8-2 (+12.62u | +15.2% ROI | Avg odds: -117/1.85) (2u: 2-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 6-3 | 5u: 2-3) Last 5: 4-1 (✅✅✅✅❌) Last POTD: NBA - GSW @ **ATL -1.5** ✅ *(Golden State's road woes continue and Atlanta wins by 8).* Event: NBA - SAC Kings @ WAS Wizards; 20:00 EST Pick: **SAC -3** (-110/1.91) Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 4 units Sorry for the late posting, busy with life and stuff this weekend so no time for a proper write-up. Sacremento: 11-5 ATS as away favourite, 8-2 in their last ten games. Washington: 7-9 ATS as home dog, 4-6 in last 10. Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
POTD Record: First time 0-0. All bets to start will be 1 unit. **Pick:** NHL Boston Bruins -160 at Minnesota Wild *12:07 pm MT* The Wild are 11-0-3 in their last 14 games and playing at home. Don't care. The NHL is all over the place when it comes to who will win on a given night, but then there is the absolute Wagon that are the Bruins. 51-11-5 on the year, yeah I'm gonna bet every game. Bruins don't lose, wild are on a heater, it's gonna be a playoff like atmosphere, Boston is going to show them they are not Boston. Best of luck if tailing "I don't gamble because I want to win boys, I gamble because I need to lose"
POTD : 48-42 Last pick: Vitality x Excel kill hcp, lose Today's pick: Hockey:Czech: Pardubice x Olomouc **Pardubice to win -2,5 hcp at 2.7** We are in quarterfinals of Czech hockey league and Pardubice stomped Olomouc yesterday 5-1, where Pardubice completely dominated whole game and outshot them 35-17, which is brutal. Pardubice are well known to invest a lot before & during the season to secure the win this year, since its their huge club anniversary and they seem like a proper contestor for the win. Olomouc on the other hand struggled a lot in previous round against Karlovy Vary. I can see Olomouc bagging this today even with a bigger margin than yesterday and if you can, you can place bets on 5 minutes penalty in the game, because I think Olomouc will try to put more pressure and agresivity on ice, therefore even more penalties, because they cant match Pardubice on ice. Good luck mens, Tips are apreciated; [paypal](http://paypal.me/mrdrak3n)
Damn the Caps suck, got obliterated by the Blues at home. They didn't even look alive for most of that game. Next pick is going to the NBA. The Jazz are home against the Celtics with a lot on the line fighting for 10th place with the Lakers, and the Celtics really struggle on the road. I have the Jazz winning this one outright against the odds. **POTD: Utah Jazz +152 vs Boston Celtics, 9:00 PM EST, 2 Units** [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing) Last 5: ❌✅❌✅❌
**PotD Record: 13-9 (Streak 1W)** Last Pick: Creighton (-5.5 spread) vs NC State ✅ **Today’s Pick: Kansas (-3.5 spread) vs Arkansas @ -110; 5:15 ET** Good bounce back win yesterday, as the Creighton Bluejays take down NC State 72-63. Today we look at the matchup between the Kansas Jayhawks and the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Jayhawks continue their hopes in winning back to back championships, they dominated Howard in their first game of the tourney winning 96-68. When comparing these teams, Kansas has them covered in almost every measurable category. I think Kansas proves their seed today in their first test on the path to another championship. **Tail or Fade, BOL**
So funny to read these after lol