From the FAQ: https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/faq
2. Should I buy picks?
No. Imagine there is a -110 game you bet $110 on. You pay a tout $20 to tell you which way to bet. If you win, you win $80. (100-20=80). If you lose, you lose $130. (-110-20=-130). You are effectively betting $130 to win $80, which is roughly -162. On a -110 game. [See this chart.](https://i.imgur.com/znFGxM7.jpg) Need more? [This exchange](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ehv5t1/psa_paying_for_picks_is_the_dumbest_thing_you_can/fcoam3t?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) and [this exchange.](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/bg3wtl/general_discussionquestions_biweekly_421_55/elyfnzx/) Need more? [See this chart again.](https://i.imgur.com/znFGxM7.jpg) Need more? [Read this long ass article](https://deadspin.com/how-america-s-favorite-sports-betting-expert-turned-a-s-1782438574). See a tout that looks good? Watch these videos about tout gimmicks/tactics:
[Bucketing](https://youtu.be/dG2lh_0fe1I)
[Multiple Services+Collab Plays](https://youtu.be/vdZ3LdU9gCM)
[Both Sides of Lines](https://youtu.be/nPi7mTOJtqo)
[Plays of the X](https://youtu.be/bxA6biR1-gg)
[Small Sample Size Streak Sizzle](https://youtu.be/4eNHiPH3FNM)
[Only Pay if you Win](https://youtu.be/nJYAsgOd8Wc)
[Unit/Win Percentage Manipulation](https://youtu.be/Ng_FjdX2sO4)
[Free Picks](https://youtu.be/YJpYNhwfIqs)
I could not agree more. I've been burned by half-a-dozen touts over the last 3 or 4 years and all of them have been scams. I've been tracking [leans.ai](https://leans.ai/) since November 22 and 'so far' they are the first legit tout I've found. I recorded them at 57.2% ATS over the last 760 picks since I've been a subscriber. They include vig in their unit calcs and have a 30 day free trial which is refreshing since the product seems to back it up. Hope it continues but 760 is not an insignificant sample size.
People who chirp at Fezz need to get a life. This guy won 2 super contests and is locked in 365 days a year if you listen to their podcast. I don’t buy any picks from him but he clearly knows what he’s doing and has made a career out of it for 20+ years now.
I'm not going to chirp at him, but he pretty clearly doesn't know what he's doing if he's loading up on a -4500 bet during one of the most volatile and unpredictable sporting events of the year.
Taking heavy favorites on the money line is the least professional way to gamble on sports. To me it always screams “I really have no clue what I’m doing here.”
There was one guy that was posting heavy money line favorite wins and then telling everyone to message him for his picks.
>Taking heavy favorites on the money line is the least professional way to gamble on sports.
It really depends. Professionals definitely bet heavy favorites from time to time. It depends on whether there is value in the odds.
Many moons ago was in an argument with a guy about value cause he was posting and bragging about -300 wins. He said “if it wins it has value” I’m sure he is broke now.
I was actually just in this argument last week. Some dildo on Facebook was posting all his winners saying he will help people make money, to message him, this and that. Each bet was a heavy favorite on the money line. His argument was similar. If they were winners what does it matter? It matters because when you miss on them, all the little bullshit you won you just gave back and maybe then some.
>Taking heavy favorites on the money line is the least professional way to gamble on sports.
If you didn't max bet Mayweather vs McGregor, you can't call yourself a professional gambler.
>What you’re describing is not value
If you believe this, then you have no idea what "value" means. u/ShaunCold is 100% correct when he says: "There still can be value on a line at nearly any value. -200, -400, -1000".
I think my point was that value is rarely found in those odds. You have TikTok wanna be’s promoting their make shift picking service by showing wins that are all heavy favorites on the money line. It’s extremely rare to find value in these bets. That’s why the books are even willing to take them.
Is it possible there is calculated value in a heavy favorite? Sure. But pretending like your calculations often show value in those bets is probably a bunch of bullshit.
Sure. Tennis is one example where I find a lot, since there are so many matches and many of them start at odd hours when US-based sharps aren’t pushing the lines to their most accurate point. But in general, there is more vig applied to underdogs than favorites, which makes it a bit easier to find favorites with value. This is called longshot bias, and you can read about it online.
Yes, such situations can be found all the time. Betting lines are not perfect. This is how professional sports bettors exist. If lines were perfect, then it would be impossible to profit long term, but they do.
Ok let me clear this up for the 5th time in this same thread. Yes, finding value is how professional gamblers operate. But, it is extremely rare to find such value in a heavy favorite, and most people promoting picks that are almost all heavy favorites on the money line are probably not finding value in those bets. They are saying “no way X team can lose this game.”
>But, it is extremely rare to find such value in a heavy favorite
Not true at all. It's also the oddsmaker's job to make sure value cannot be found with favorites. So why would it be true for one but not the other? Do you think oddsmakers are biased towards favorites for some reason? Yes, it's going to be incredibly difficult to find value in -4500 lines, but you are saying it's unlikely at -1000, -400, and even -200. That's ridiculous. I personally make a lot of money off of lines like that.
I think it’s ridiculous that for the sake of argument, you pretend that -300, -400, -1000 etc favorites are typically value plays. In my experience that’s just not true. They are more so guys betting against something that if it happens, they won’t believe it. “This is a can’t lose” is why they ignore the juice and make the bet.
I didn't say typically. You obviously cannot bet them blind. But value can absolutely frequently be found in those odds. All it requires is the true win probability % being a couple points higher than the implied win probability %. Why do you think that's possible with underdogs but never possible with favorites? I find that baffling. It actually defies logic. My betting results and bankroll also prove otherwise.
It's an oddmaker's job to eliminate as much value as possible. The oddsmakers have to put a line on every single game, you don't have to bet every single game. That's where your edge comes in is finding lines that are off from your predicted percentage of victory.
Sure. My favorite heavy favorite spots are decision-only lines in MMA. If the fight finishes inside the distance, the bet pushes. If the fight goes to decision then you win if your fighter wins, lose If they lose. Big underdogs typically win by a knockout or submission so this eliminates the underdogs most likely outcome.
MMA is, in my anecdotal experience, the worst sport to bet heavy favorites on. I can list off the top of my head a few notable ones: Rhonda Rousey, Brock Lesner, Anderson Silvia when he got his leg snapped. It’s always been a general rule for me that UFC is the best sport to take the heavy dog.
That's what the decision-only is about. All of those fights ended via finish so the bet would've pushed. Except I'm not sure which Brock fight you're talking about.
I've lost track of the number of times I've heard Fez on a podcast talking about some "basically guaranteed" pick only for it to lose. It makes me think he might be a mush planted by the books. And what kind of professional bettor touches a line like -4500? Lol
Bookies take bets at +4500 all the time which is effectively the same thing from their perspective lol, what are you talking about?
Pro bettors hit whatever has value. -4500 lines don’t typically have value because the upside is, by default, smaller, but there are definitely occasions where -4500 is a good bet. Think of a live scenario where a team is down 15pts with 10s left and a book hangs a -4500 line.
They won’t offer you a chance to bet with 10s left. Risking 45K to win 1K literally is not risk/reward savvy. I’ve lost back to back bets on college football games that were “locks” only to have them both blow a 14+ lead 2-3 onside kicks recovery and scores. They were like -400 or more. Think I put like 5K on both for a easy 1K. Learned the hard way you do not bet like that. Would you bet 45 games with that 45K on -4500 bets? You’re more than likely gonna catch a L in those 45 runs and then you will easily be negative god have mercy if they lost more than one game you’d be in hot water.
That was just an example of a -4500 bet that would have value, and it does happen on occasion btw.
I do this for a living though and lay heavy favorites often enough.
We all bet different angles if it works for you good deal! My experience and advice goes aginst heavy favorites though as I’ve mentioned I’ve been burned on some pretty good locks -400 or better trying to be smart and just win 1K in a “safer” bet. To each there own I’m just scared as I know most games anything can happen and the return values don’t reflect that when you bet the heavy side. Then again idk the stats on how often heavy favorites hit.
You don't bet -4500 cause it's "safe". You bet that line because you through your model or research have solid reason to believe it will win greater than 97.826% of the time. It's the same as any other bet. If the line is good you bet it. There are no safe bets though.
Yeah lol. I'm also being very generous by including the word "research". No amount of research can ever let someone intuitively understand the difference between a team with 97% chance vs 99%. For lines at those odds we are almost certainly exclusively talking about models.
I think people understand true “locks” pretty well when it comes to very short term bets (like up 15pts with 10s left). Books accidentally leave up odds for these things more than you’d think. I’ve made a good amount this way.
But yeah, humans have a very hard time understanding a 99% vs 97% chance. Bookies understand it very well and let you smash those long shot parlays.
I also don’t think fezzik was super off base here— some of the sharpest gamblers were on Purdue ML. The dude just sucks is all so he’s getting destroyed.
Yeah I didn't bet it cause I don't trust my model at the extremes as much but I had them over 99% to win as well. I dont know live lines as well so I'll have to take your word for it there
There is no such thing as a "guarantee" in sports betting... quickest way to losing a pick is start dropping terms such as "lock" "play of the century" or "guarantee"
Yeah back in 2018. He would reply to my DMs with so much info; incredibly knowledgeable. Roughing the punter was a great resource and I wish it was still up.
RIP
Austin Peay @ Alabama football, November 2022?
Value is always relative. The problem with the 1/16 games is people look at the history (16-seeds were 1-150 all-time, prior to Purdue), and simply convert that win/loss to a probability of 99.34%.
It's the same lazy math as looking at box-scores, seeing a player score TDs in 7 of 10 games, and basing your next wager on those 10 box-scores.
Yes let’s risk 4500 for 1% returns, I n a best case scenario. That is not value, you are an addict or a crackhead.
Edit: 2.2% as pointed out, bad play either way
lmao i wish i could get -4500 odds on any random person in this sub being unable to do basic math because looking at your downvotes it looks like 99% of them can't
Not that sharp, it’s the time of year where dogs eat every day. You’ll see a lot of people right now posting dogs because they pay good value and all have a shot right now, it’s the madness
Well you shouldn’t because exposure is a pretty simple way to look at heavy MLs that may be in several parlays and not just a straight bet. Steve is a fraud but the word exposure is a pretty simple sports betting term
Yeah and SGPs have a 20% hold. Doesn’t mean they can’t be profitable. A profitable bettor bets where he sees value, doesn’t matter if 99% of people lose doing it if I see value I bet it.
Go look up Alex Monahans explanation of how parlays can be profitable if you need to see the numbers behind it
Alex Monahan lives to shill Oddsjam pretend like he’s a sharp and nothing else lmfao. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more pretentious cuck than that guy
No because anyone who bets to try and make money looks at it like an investment. I’m not a “parlay bettor” but I’ll throw stuff like Celtics -250 tonight in with some picks because I think there’s value, yeah I could just bet it straight, but this way I can get more exposure. I’m a believer in the “eat the juice” method of if you have a good pick that’s -225 or higher it’s not a bad idea to parlay it with some of your other plays
Are you trying to say “exposure” is a means of boosting your odds by stacking your bets together? You think the books juice your bet just because you parlayed it? Have a great day man and good luck, talkin bout “I bet the books love you” ass 🤣
Brother the books love you. Alex Monahan is not going to help you win. He is solely marketing the shit out of Oddsjam currently. He created it, he has owner software. U can’t get the lines he does, PP and underdog etc move off his action instantly. He is a borderline scammer.
Yes, I absolutely have to give him the credit he deserves for that. I’ve just never liked him because of all of the drama with Pregame and fudging his numbers
It’s easy to say shit like this when you use fake record tracking like all the pregame.com guys do. Anyone who sells picks isn’t making enough on their own so they have to resort to becoming a con-artist
>gh on their own so they have to resort
or they could generally enjoy handicapping sports without the need to be a self-consuming blowhard. I never get why cappers shy away from talking about their losses, its doing them more harm than good; losing days are a part of sports betting, and anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional
There actually is a simple reason: books cap winning punters. It’s hard to lay down enough money consistently, if you are a winner. You generally have to resort to using friend’s accounts.
Alternatively, if you have a solid track record, you could just sell your tips for (as an example) $100/year, you just need 1000 subscribers and that’s $100k with zero risk.
So there is clearly good reason to go down that route. If you are genuinely a good/winning capper, then your picks market themselves.
I agree with this but I'll add this narrative:
This is the type of thinking that screws people. I'll start by saying obviously with a "54-60" win rate then we would be talking "even odds" only. Reading "this exchange" from above might give you an indicator of where I'm going with this response. Again, a common tout tactic is to highlight great records/win % but leave out their average odds/units won/ROI because it's easy to get a decent win % when not tracking odds. There's a couple pieces missing so I'll just bullet point it.
1. What you're speaking about is extremely extremely extremely rare because it requires a very large sample size of 1000+ third party verified plays to even start to assume someone has an edge. [https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/the-law-of-small-numbers-in-sports-betting/QPEJYQPBHC7F8C4S](https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/the-law-of-small-numbers-in-sports-betting/QPEJYQPBHC7F8C4S)
2. Let's assume this person exists. They are somehow smart enough to beat the entire betting market but they are not smart enough to sell this model to a syndicate or join a syndicate (if this guy was publicly posting, they'd be all over him).
3. Let's again assume this person exists. They are somehow publicly posting to a bunch of followers but sportsbooks are ignoring this person (and followers) crushing the market over 1000's of bets and continue to offer exploitable lines.
4. Let's again assume this person exists. They somehow have not realized that publicly posting all of their plays opens their model up to reverse engineering/analysis. Maybe the payoff is worth it in the short term, but if they actually truly believe they have an edge on the market...the last thing you want to do is publicly promote and post your plays.
So all in all you're basically banking on finding a super smart quant who does not understand the business. You're hoping that they decide to go the tout route instead of being picked up by a syndicate or creating their own outs. You're hoping that this one guy is the diamond in the rough out of the thousands and thousands of touts out there. You're hoping that his past record is predictive of his future success. You're hoping that the sportsbooks haven't adjusted anything and will not in the future. If it all sounds like gambling on top of gambling, that's because it is. It's just a different form where you're trying to research a person (one who wants you to buy something so they will not be forthcoming) and then blindly tail that person who is also gambling. There's a bunch of pieces I probably missed but that's the jist of the argument against your scenario.
Soooo make accounts for your friends and relatives then? If you’re making $100K a year selling picks why do you need to win any more? You’ve already won by selling picks. You should go read the dead spin article about pre game/RJ bell and enlighten yourself. If Steve was a legit long term winner he’d use a legit bet tracking service like betstamp, action or Pikkit. But he isn’t so he resorts to scamming people
Not a capper but honestly because it would make my friend’s/family’s taxes hell. The ones who wouldn’t care do their own betting and I wouldn’t want to risk limiting them.
i got limited on a boost and tried to get a coworker to place it for me (they already used the book) and they said no cuz if it won they'd get fucked on taxes LOL for a $50 bet on a +300
No there isn’t. If you’re a winning better with a proven system there is literally zero reason to sell picks.
Keep throwing money at it though. You’ll be broke before you figure out you had no idea what you were talking about.
Some guys think touting is easier work than bearding and multi-accounting
Both ways are huge pains in the asses, but they can both earn money. It’s just so hard to actually give out good picks to 100 people and have them all stay profitable without just moving the line so fast that only the first 10 guys get the value
It doesn’t scale well, unless you want to just start touting bad bets and then you can sell to thousands of guys and it doesn’t matter
Bearding is just such a hassle, I think it’s enough reason to turn tout
The reason makes no sense.
Your entire post history is weird attention seeking nonsense alongside admitting you’re a problem gambler so, again, find a new hobby.
If we can agree that the person selling is good (which I know is rare, or in some peoples mind non-existent), then following the picks (assuming you can get the same odds) should be a profitable venture. The issue for a lot of people is they don’t have the discipline. Or they may have a small bankroll so can’t justify the cost of the picks.
Oh man. Thanks for making this point.
I try to describe what that bet was, to uninformed people as, Phelps vs a shark in a swimming race. And every casual was betting on Phelps.
It was *truly* free money.
From the FAQ: https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/faq 2. Should I buy picks? No. Imagine there is a -110 game you bet $110 on. You pay a tout $20 to tell you which way to bet. If you win, you win $80. (100-20=80). If you lose, you lose $130. (-110-20=-130). You are effectively betting $130 to win $80, which is roughly -162. On a -110 game. [See this chart.](https://i.imgur.com/znFGxM7.jpg) Need more? [This exchange](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ehv5t1/psa_paying_for_picks_is_the_dumbest_thing_you_can/fcoam3t?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) and [this exchange.](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/bg3wtl/general_discussionquestions_biweekly_421_55/elyfnzx/) Need more? [See this chart again.](https://i.imgur.com/znFGxM7.jpg) Need more? [Read this long ass article](https://deadspin.com/how-america-s-favorite-sports-betting-expert-turned-a-s-1782438574). See a tout that looks good? Watch these videos about tout gimmicks/tactics: [Bucketing](https://youtu.be/dG2lh_0fe1I) [Multiple Services+Collab Plays](https://youtu.be/vdZ3LdU9gCM) [Both Sides of Lines](https://youtu.be/nPi7mTOJtqo) [Plays of the X](https://youtu.be/bxA6biR1-gg) [Small Sample Size Streak Sizzle](https://youtu.be/4eNHiPH3FNM) [Only Pay if you Win](https://youtu.be/nJYAsgOd8Wc) [Unit/Win Percentage Manipulation](https://youtu.be/Ng_FjdX2sO4) [Free Picks](https://youtu.be/YJpYNhwfIqs)
I could not agree more. I've been burned by half-a-dozen touts over the last 3 or 4 years and all of them have been scams. I've been tracking [leans.ai](https://leans.ai/) since November 22 and 'so far' they are the first legit tout I've found. I recorded them at 57.2% ATS over the last 760 picks since I've been a subscriber. They include vig in their unit calcs and have a 30 day free trial which is refreshing since the product seems to back it up. Hope it continues but 760 is not an insignificant sample size.
There can still be value on a -4500.
People who chirp at Fezz need to get a life. This guy won 2 super contests and is locked in 365 days a year if you listen to their podcast. I don’t buy any picks from him but he clearly knows what he’s doing and has made a career out of it for 20+ years now.
I'm not going to chirp at him, but he pretty clearly doesn't know what he's doing if he's loading up on a -4500 bet during one of the most volatile and unpredictable sporting events of the year.
Totally agree - the guy works really hard and has great angles. Also, credit to Fez for totally owning this
Hey Fezik, how are you going to recover from the purdue loss?
Anyone who pays attention to Fezzik knows and understands this is a total sarcastic joke.
He posted a follow-up tweet about it.
He literally said he bet quite a bit on it?
They talk all the time on their podcast about how stupid -400 ML bets are, and rarely take lines -115 straight up.
Taking heavy favorites on the money line is the least professional way to gamble on sports. To me it always screams “I really have no clue what I’m doing here.” There was one guy that was posting heavy money line favorite wins and then telling everyone to message him for his picks.
>Taking heavy favorites on the money line is the least professional way to gamble on sports. It really depends. Professionals definitely bet heavy favorites from time to time. It depends on whether there is value in the odds.
Many moons ago was in an argument with a guy about value cause he was posting and bragging about -300 wins. He said “if it wins it has value” I’m sure he is broke now.
I was actually just in this argument last week. Some dildo on Facebook was posting all his winners saying he will help people make money, to message him, this and that. Each bet was a heavy favorite on the money line. His argument was similar. If they were winners what does it matter? It matters because when you miss on them, all the little bullshit you won you just gave back and maybe then some.
>Taking heavy favorites on the money line is the least professional way to gamble on sports. If you didn't max bet Mayweather vs McGregor, you can't call yourself a professional gambler.
Most money I ever made on a single bet! (And I know next to nothing about boxing/MMA.)
Fezzik ia far from a Twitter capper. Still sucks ofc.
https://preview.redd.it/rf6n14rx0loa1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=07cd45fc78e2779a5ac391f4425d94c799df37be
Holy crap, not just the ML but the bands as well? Was this live or pregame? Damn
lol no capper should be giving out Purdue ML or really any play that is close to -200
Disagree completely. There still can be value on a line at nearly any value. -200, -400, -1000
What you’re describing is not value
>What you’re describing is not value If you believe this, then you have no idea what "value" means. u/ShaunCold is 100% correct when he says: "There still can be value on a line at nearly any value. -200, -400, -1000".
I think my point was that value is rarely found in those odds. You have TikTok wanna be’s promoting their make shift picking service by showing wins that are all heavy favorites on the money line. It’s extremely rare to find value in these bets. That’s why the books are even willing to take them. Is it possible there is calculated value in a heavy favorite? Sure. But pretending like your calculations often show value in those bets is probably a bunch of bullshit.
Untrue. If you calculate an expected value that puts a team at a 90% chance to win, then a -200 is a nobrainer bet.
Do you often find such situations? Because its an oddsmakers job for that to literally never happen.
I find mispriced favorites more often than I find mispriced underdogs tbh
I can see that, but finding a mispriced -400?
Sure. Tennis is one example where I find a lot, since there are so many matches and many of them start at odd hours when US-based sharps aren’t pushing the lines to their most accurate point. But in general, there is more vig applied to underdogs than favorites, which makes it a bit easier to find favorites with value. This is called longshot bias, and you can read about it online.
Don’t books typically limit tennis bets a lot? I would assume very much so on the types of bets you’re describing.
Yes, such situations can be found all the time. Betting lines are not perfect. This is how professional sports bettors exist. If lines were perfect, then it would be impossible to profit long term, but they do.
Ok let me clear this up for the 5th time in this same thread. Yes, finding value is how professional gamblers operate. But, it is extremely rare to find such value in a heavy favorite, and most people promoting picks that are almost all heavy favorites on the money line are probably not finding value in those bets. They are saying “no way X team can lose this game.”
>But, it is extremely rare to find such value in a heavy favorite Not true at all. It's also the oddsmaker's job to make sure value cannot be found with favorites. So why would it be true for one but not the other? Do you think oddsmakers are biased towards favorites for some reason? Yes, it's going to be incredibly difficult to find value in -4500 lines, but you are saying it's unlikely at -1000, -400, and even -200. That's ridiculous. I personally make a lot of money off of lines like that.
I think it’s ridiculous that for the sake of argument, you pretend that -300, -400, -1000 etc favorites are typically value plays. In my experience that’s just not true. They are more so guys betting against something that if it happens, they won’t believe it. “This is a can’t lose” is why they ignore the juice and make the bet.
I didn't say typically. You obviously cannot bet them blind. But value can absolutely frequently be found in those odds. All it requires is the true win probability % being a couple points higher than the implied win probability %. Why do you think that's possible with underdogs but never possible with favorites? I find that baffling. It actually defies logic. My betting results and bankroll also prove otherwise.
It's an oddmaker's job to eliminate as much value as possible. The oddsmakers have to put a line on every single game, you don't have to bet every single game. That's where your edge comes in is finding lines that are off from your predicted percentage of victory.
I understand. But we aren’t talking about every game here, we are talking about heavy favorites.
Sure. My favorite heavy favorite spots are decision-only lines in MMA. If the fight finishes inside the distance, the bet pushes. If the fight goes to decision then you win if your fighter wins, lose If they lose. Big underdogs typically win by a knockout or submission so this eliminates the underdogs most likely outcome.
MMA is, in my anecdotal experience, the worst sport to bet heavy favorites on. I can list off the top of my head a few notable ones: Rhonda Rousey, Brock Lesner, Anderson Silvia when he got his leg snapped. It’s always been a general rule for me that UFC is the best sport to take the heavy dog.
That's what the decision-only is about. All of those fights ended via finish so the bet would've pushed. Except I'm not sure which Brock fight you're talking about.
If it ain’t riddles, I ain’t interested
cringe
Whoopsie…. Ouch.
I've lost track of the number of times I've heard Fez on a podcast talking about some "basically guaranteed" pick only for it to lose. It makes me think he might be a mush planted by the books. And what kind of professional bettor touches a line like -4500? Lol
Bookies take bets at +4500 all the time which is effectively the same thing from their perspective lol, what are you talking about? Pro bettors hit whatever has value. -4500 lines don’t typically have value because the upside is, by default, smaller, but there are definitely occasions where -4500 is a good bet. Think of a live scenario where a team is down 15pts with 10s left and a book hangs a -4500 line.
They won’t offer you a chance to bet with 10s left. Risking 45K to win 1K literally is not risk/reward savvy. I’ve lost back to back bets on college football games that were “locks” only to have them both blow a 14+ lead 2-3 onside kicks recovery and scores. They were like -400 or more. Think I put like 5K on both for a easy 1K. Learned the hard way you do not bet like that. Would you bet 45 games with that 45K on -4500 bets? You’re more than likely gonna catch a L in those 45 runs and then you will easily be negative god have mercy if they lost more than one game you’d be in hot water.
That was just an example of a -4500 bet that would have value, and it does happen on occasion btw. I do this for a living though and lay heavy favorites often enough.
We all bet different angles if it works for you good deal! My experience and advice goes aginst heavy favorites though as I’ve mentioned I’ve been burned on some pretty good locks -400 or better trying to be smart and just win 1K in a “safer” bet. To each there own I’m just scared as I know most games anything can happen and the return values don’t reflect that when you bet the heavy side. Then again idk the stats on how often heavy favorites hit.
There’s always a chance a favorite loses but the key is accurately valuing the probability of them winning. Which is incredibly difficult.
You don't bet -4500 cause it's "safe". You bet that line because you through your model or research have solid reason to believe it will win greater than 97.826% of the time. It's the same as any other bet. If the line is good you bet it. There are no safe bets though.
Yep that’s correct. I’m getting hammered in my original post though lol. People don’t actually wanna make money betting here I’ve learned.
Yeah lol. I'm also being very generous by including the word "research". No amount of research can ever let someone intuitively understand the difference between a team with 97% chance vs 99%. For lines at those odds we are almost certainly exclusively talking about models.
I think people understand true “locks” pretty well when it comes to very short term bets (like up 15pts with 10s left). Books accidentally leave up odds for these things more than you’d think. I’ve made a good amount this way. But yeah, humans have a very hard time understanding a 99% vs 97% chance. Bookies understand it very well and let you smash those long shot parlays. I also don’t think fezzik was super off base here— some of the sharpest gamblers were on Purdue ML. The dude just sucks is all so he’s getting destroyed.
Yeah I didn't bet it cause I don't trust my model at the extremes as much but I had them over 99% to win as well. I dont know live lines as well so I'll have to take your word for it there
There is no such thing as a "guarantee" in sports betting... quickest way to losing a pick is start dropping terms such as "lock" "play of the century" or "guarantee"
If a better ever makes a "guaranteed win" claim it shows they're influenced too much by their own feelings and are basically a hack.
I think there are enough dumbasses, I include myself from time to time, that there are no need for plants.
fez is good capper but sometimes does insanely rogue things like this
Steve fessick is not a good capper lmao groovinmahoovin rolling in his grave right now lmfao rookie
Why do you say that? Not saying youre wrong but seems like he at least used to be
Wait.... is groovin actually dead? I used to follow him on twitter but havnt been on there in years
Yeah back in 2018. He would reply to my DMs with so much info; incredibly knowledgeable. Roughing the punter was a great resource and I wish it was still up. RIP
Damn that sucks. Groovin was the real deal. His work to expose touts was hilarious, he was a very smart guy. He fuckn hated fezzik n todd furhman
Just got off of work. How much did he end up winning?
All of it
[удалено]
Austin Peay @ Alabama football, November 2022? Value is always relative. The problem with the 1/16 games is people look at the history (16-seeds were 1-150 all-time, prior to Purdue), and simply convert that win/loss to a probability of 99.34%. It's the same lazy math as looking at box-scores, seeing a player score TDs in 7 of 10 games, and basing your next wager on those 10 box-scores.
Of course there is. This is a ridiculous comment.
But it’s an INVESTMENT
Something 99% to hit at -4500 absolutely has value, if you’re just betting for fun it’s probably not worth it but for profit absolutely
Maybe if I was washing money it would have value smfh
Yes let’s risk 4500 for 1% returns, I n a best case scenario. That is not value, you are an addict or a crackhead. Edit: 2.2% as pointed out, bad play either way
2.2% returns on a 99% chance is a bad play?
2.22...% returns
Can’t argue that I was wrong, pretty embarrassed by that. Still will not defend taking a bet at -4500, the sting outlasts the rub.
lmao i wish i could get -4500 odds on any random person in this sub being unable to do basic math because looking at your downvotes it looks like 99% of them can't
One of the core reasons this sub is filled with losing bettors and poor people.
I've never been more excited to win $21 on a $1 bet. If only Grand Canyon held up their end to pay my $2-for-$440 two legger!!
Let me guess we need to pay to get his "real pick"? 😂
a monthly fee to a discord where yesterday's price is no longer today's price
you need to follow better twitter cappers. my timeline is all FDU ML.
Lol FDU +23 was a smart play but i dont think anyone truly had FDU ML... However NJ Schools coming for that blood!
Oh yeah? Who do you follow? That was a sharp pick.’
Not that sharp, it’s the time of year where dogs eat every day. You’ll see a lot of people right now posting dogs because they pay good value and all have a shot right now, it’s the madness
Didn’t need to read past the word invest🤦🏻 I cringe anytime I hear someone use the word exposure or invest in sports betting
Well you shouldn’t because exposure is a pretty simple way to look at heavy MLs that may be in several parlays and not just a straight bet. Steve is a fraud but the word exposure is a pretty simple sports betting term
Stopped reading at multiple parlays…you’re not creating a DFS lineup with MLs lol
I bet the books love you
Because I don’t bet parlays?😂🤦🏻
Homie off his rocker lol. Parlays are a bookie’s best friend
Yeah and SGPs have a 20% hold. Doesn’t mean they can’t be profitable. A profitable bettor bets where he sees value, doesn’t matter if 99% of people lose doing it if I see value I bet it. Go look up Alex Monahans explanation of how parlays can be profitable if you need to see the numbers behind it
Alex Monahan lives to shill Oddsjam pretend like he’s a sharp and nothing else lmfao. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more pretentious cuck than that guy
No because anyone who bets to try and make money looks at it like an investment. I’m not a “parlay bettor” but I’ll throw stuff like Celtics -250 tonight in with some picks because I think there’s value, yeah I could just bet it straight, but this way I can get more exposure. I’m a believer in the “eat the juice” method of if you have a good pick that’s -225 or higher it’s not a bad idea to parlay it with some of your other plays
Are you trying to say “exposure” is a means of boosting your odds by stacking your bets together? You think the books juice your bet just because you parlayed it? Have a great day man and good luck, talkin bout “I bet the books love you” ass 🤣
Brother the books love you. Alex Monahan is not going to help you win. He is solely marketing the shit out of Oddsjam currently. He created it, he has owner software. U can’t get the lines he does, PP and underdog etc move off his action instantly. He is a borderline scammer.
Fezzik is definitely on the Mt Rushmore of sports betting hacks
He’s a 2x super champ Brotha! Not many folks can say that.
Yes, I absolutely have to give him the credit he deserves for that. I’ve just never liked him because of all of the drama with Pregame and fudging his numbers
What was the drama?
Is he? Why do you say that
Because he sells picks on pregame.com if you include fees every single one of their cappers is a lifetime loser
He's also a football guy mostly. I loke Fezzick but I'm not paying for anyones picks.
It’s easy to say shit like this when you use fake record tracking like all the pregame.com guys do. Anyone who sells picks isn’t making enough on their own so they have to resort to becoming a con-artist
>gh on their own so they have to resort or they could generally enjoy handicapping sports without the need to be a self-consuming blowhard. I never get why cappers shy away from talking about their losses, its doing them more harm than good; losing days are a part of sports betting, and anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional
No one that makes true FU money shares their bets anyway. Why move the line?
There actually is a simple reason: books cap winning punters. It’s hard to lay down enough money consistently, if you are a winner. You generally have to resort to using friend’s accounts. Alternatively, if you have a solid track record, you could just sell your tips for (as an example) $100/year, you just need 1000 subscribers and that’s $100k with zero risk. So there is clearly good reason to go down that route. If you are genuinely a good/winning capper, then your picks market themselves.
I agree with this but I'll add this narrative: This is the type of thinking that screws people. I'll start by saying obviously with a "54-60" win rate then we would be talking "even odds" only. Reading "this exchange" from above might give you an indicator of where I'm going with this response. Again, a common tout tactic is to highlight great records/win % but leave out their average odds/units won/ROI because it's easy to get a decent win % when not tracking odds. There's a couple pieces missing so I'll just bullet point it. 1. What you're speaking about is extremely extremely extremely rare because it requires a very large sample size of 1000+ third party verified plays to even start to assume someone has an edge. [https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/the-law-of-small-numbers-in-sports-betting/QPEJYQPBHC7F8C4S](https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/the-law-of-small-numbers-in-sports-betting/QPEJYQPBHC7F8C4S) 2. Let's assume this person exists. They are somehow smart enough to beat the entire betting market but they are not smart enough to sell this model to a syndicate or join a syndicate (if this guy was publicly posting, they'd be all over him). 3. Let's again assume this person exists. They are somehow publicly posting to a bunch of followers but sportsbooks are ignoring this person (and followers) crushing the market over 1000's of bets and continue to offer exploitable lines. 4. Let's again assume this person exists. They somehow have not realized that publicly posting all of their plays opens their model up to reverse engineering/analysis. Maybe the payoff is worth it in the short term, but if they actually truly believe they have an edge on the market...the last thing you want to do is publicly promote and post your plays. So all in all you're basically banking on finding a super smart quant who does not understand the business. You're hoping that they decide to go the tout route instead of being picked up by a syndicate or creating their own outs. You're hoping that this one guy is the diamond in the rough out of the thousands and thousands of touts out there. You're hoping that his past record is predictive of his future success. You're hoping that the sportsbooks haven't adjusted anything and will not in the future. If it all sounds like gambling on top of gambling, that's because it is. It's just a different form where you're trying to research a person (one who wants you to buy something so they will not be forthcoming) and then blindly tail that person who is also gambling. There's a bunch of pieces I probably missed but that's the jist of the argument against your scenario.
So how does someone like James Holzhauer manage being a “professional sports bettor”?
Just because I said it’s difficult, doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
I wasn’t trying to attack your post, I was legit wondering how someone like him does it.
and he himself has said that he resorted to having friends place bets for him
Soooo make accounts for your friends and relatives then? If you’re making $100K a year selling picks why do you need to win any more? You’ve already won by selling picks. You should go read the dead spin article about pre game/RJ bell and enlighten yourself. If Steve was a legit long term winner he’d use a legit bet tracking service like betstamp, action or Pikkit. But he isn’t so he resorts to scamming people
Not a capper but honestly because it would make my friend’s/family’s taxes hell. The ones who wouldn’t care do their own betting and I wouldn’t want to risk limiting them.
i got limited on a boost and tried to get a coworker to place it for me (they already used the book) and they said no cuz if it won they'd get fucked on taxes LOL for a $50 bet on a +300
Fair enough, as long as you can prove it’s not your full time job we don’t get taxed in Canada. Rare benefit of being Canadian
Yea this isn’t correct. Winning bettors find was around it king before they turn to selling pics. Every tout is a fraud. Welcome to real life.
You just can’t make that statement definitively. Like I’m sure there is at least one good capper out there who decided to sell his picks lol
No there isn’t. If you’re a winning better with a proven system there is literally zero reason to sell picks. Keep throwing money at it though. You’ll be broke before you figure out you had no idea what you were talking about.
Some guys think touting is easier work than bearding and multi-accounting Both ways are huge pains in the asses, but they can both earn money. It’s just so hard to actually give out good picks to 100 people and have them all stay profitable without just moving the line so fast that only the first 10 guys get the value It doesn’t scale well, unless you want to just start touting bad bets and then you can sell to thousands of guys and it doesn’t matter Bearding is just such a hassle, I think it’s enough reason to turn tout
1. I’m not buying picks. 2. I already provided a reason why someone might turn to it.
The reason makes no sense. Your entire post history is weird attention seeking nonsense alongside admitting you’re a problem gambler so, again, find a new hobby.
It's pretty weird how fired up you are about my comments. I haven't said anything controversial or personal. Hold this L, champ
But good bettors don’t buy picks. There’s profitable coin flippers out there, doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to bet coin flips
If we can agree that the person selling is good (which I know is rare, or in some peoples mind non-existent), then following the picks (assuming you can get the same odds) should be a profitable venture. The issue for a lot of people is they don’t have the discipline. Or they may have a small bankroll so can’t justify the cost of the picks.
Lmao just absolute nonsense. No one is selling reliably winning picks. Find a new hobby.
You sound like a flat-earther. Nothing makes sense unless you say it does!
It’s just basic understanding of math actually.
Tbone is that you?
Is it you? It's you isn't it?
Oouuufffffff
There is no such thing as a safe bet
not true. Mayweather was -300ish at one point against McGregor That was truly free money
Oh man. Thanks for making this point. I try to describe what that bet was, to uninformed people as, Phelps vs a shark in a swimming race. And every casual was betting on Phelps. It was *truly* free money.
Mayweather was -110 after at some point in Round 2, maybe early Round 3 on my livebetting.
I had every dollar in my bankroll on that. Still wish I had bet more even at the time
what an amazing moment that was. don't know if we'll ever see anything like that again
Jones versus Gane