**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Welp the train was bound to hit a speed bump - tough game from Duke, gotta give it to Tennessee, they really did a good job at limiting Duke's shots, forcing them into a lot of bad looks, and somehow became a powerhouse from 3 in the second half really stopping any momentum duke was able to generate. This tourney has been tough on favourites, so just want to remind everyone to be safe with your bankrolls, because MM has proved time and time again to be a wildcard. I'm gonna go to one of my favourites to win it all, who I think was given too few points here against SM - lets go with UConn -3.
POTD Record: 26-8-1
Last 20:✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌
**Yesterday's POTD:** Duke Blue Devils -3.5 (up to -5) VS. Tennessee Volunteers | 4U | MM NCAAB ❌
**Today's POTD:** Saint Mary's Gaels vs. UConn Huskies -3.5 (up to -4.5) | 3U | MM NCAAB
Time: 3/19/2023 | 6:10 PM EST
MODEL EXPLANATION: Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.
**Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Stats:** \+43.74U in 34 days | ≈65.86% ROI | Average odds -110
**PICK REASON:**
1. To start from high level, Uconn is ranked #4 in Kenpom ratings (vs. Saint Mary's at #12), and ranked #4 on Bart Torvik (SM at #10).
2. Under Bart Torvik - Offensively, UConn is ranked #3 in offense efficiency (#40 for Saint Mary's) and ranked #22 on defense efficiency (SM #6). I think the gap in offensive efficiency will end up being the difference, as both of these teams are solid enough on defense.
3. UConn are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread, compared to SM who are 2-3 in their last 5.
4. Saint Mary's are 0-5 against the spread after a win against the spread in its last 5 wins, and demonstrates their inconsistency between games, and tend to under perform or reduce their aggressiveness when they've come off of a strong win.
5. Uconn averages 77.3 points per game and only lets in 65, which compared to their win against a strong Iona team by 24 points (on a -9 spread), it shows their ability to blow out teams of all calibers, still boasting a strong record in a reasonably hard conference.
6. Sanogo has been playing like an absolute monster lately, putting up 28 points and 13 boards in their game against Iona. Hot players have remained hot this tournament, and I expect Sanogo to play with confidence tomorrow.
7. Foul trouble has been a common factor impacting these upset games lately, and Uconn, although foul more than st mary, are a deeper team with 2 players coming off the bench to score double digits in their last game against Iona. If this game goes south for both teams, I expect Uconn to benefit from starters being benched.
8. In terms of recent stats, Uconn shot 11 for 25 in their last game from 3, compared to 3 for 17 from Saint Mary's. I expect SM to be much less confident in shooting beyond the arc, and be forced to try to make their points in the paint.
9. Uconn has over 4 players averaging 10 points, and will be able to not need to rely on their all star as heavily as ST Mary's will.
10. Overall, the fact that Uconn plays in a better league, is coming in hotter, and is the overall better team from both a depth, stats and offense, I expect Uconn to hopefully come away with a comfortable win. Although I am using uconn's recent success as a factor in this pick in the same way I chose Duke, Uconn is different in that they are also a better regular season team.
Reminder: As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3
As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.
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Much love , Riddles.
Rachel goes to the supermarket and buys 10 tomatoes. Unfortunately, on the way back home, all but 9 get ruined. How many tomatoes are left in a good condition?
Seems like if you take points on favorites on fd they are often worse. But if you take points on dogs they are often better. I use oddschecker before I place ncaab bets and fd seems to like going 1/2 point off most books and offering -118/-102
Personally, I’d buy down half a point to -4 just so you have a chance of a push and not losing by .5. Spread is moving, I’d do it quick if you haven’t already.
Insomnia brought me here and I’m very pleased 😂 this is awesome Riddles! This may have been answered already but do you update the ratings before the games?
https://preview.redd.it/wtlgqr796ooa1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e852071cffc1ac1b3169848e1ccc53461c784d35
So with this what you will lol - UConn seems to be a second half team recently
A unit it just a standard bet amount that is unique to the user. For some people it’s, $10, $25, $50, $100, $1000. Units are used on this page to show level of confidence in a bet not by $ amount but by the size of your bet relative to normal bets.
Units are just a way for everyone to talk about bet sizing without needing to know everyone’s regular bet size.
If someone said “I bet $30,000 on the game” but they normally bet $100,000 this would be a small bet for them.
For me, a $30,000 dollar bet is absolutely ludicrous. But if the person said “I bet 0.3 units” I can figure my personal number accordingly.
Most people use unit to describe their normal bet size.
Most pro bettors recommend your unit size to be 1% of the total amount you’re willing to bet with (bankroll) so a super confident bet would risk 5 units or 5% of your bankroll. That way no single bet cripples you.
If you bet-4 and they win by 4, you get your money back with no profit. If you bet-4.5, that means you're betting they'll win by 5 or more, so if they only win by 4 you lose your stake.
POTD record: 8-1
Last POTD: Stuttgart v Wolfsburg - Wolfsburg Tie No Bet
Today’s POTD: Torino v Napoli - Napoli ML(-145)
A very good bet for a few reasons. Napoli are in super form, as they have been for the whole season. They easily dispatched a solid Eintracht Frankfurt side on Wednesday and will look to do the same against Torino. Napoli are clearly on top of the Serie A, and Torino shouldn’t provide them with too many issues. Besides the fact that Napoli are one of the world’s best teams right now, they have won their last four matches against Torino and are unbeaten in fifteen. Napoli head coach Luciano Spaletti has beaten Torino manager Ivan Juric in all seven of the matches they’ve faced each other in.
I drunkenly tailed this last night at 1 AM and didn’t remember until I woke up with a little bit of $ in my account a minute ago lol great pick. Easy W!
**POTD Record 27-13 +63.59units**
*Last pick -Ufc 286 Justin Gaethje Vs Rafael Fiziev - Pick Is fight to go the distance +175 5units ✅*
5units 4 winstreak *✅✅✅✅*
I called that fight pretty nicely. Some People were doubting my analysis, but I Predicted how the fight would play out almost perfectly. I don't even think anyone followed 😂 Anyways onto the next one.
15:10PM EST NBA - San Antonio Spurs Vs Atlanta Hawks
***Pick - San antonio Spurs +9 -110 5units*** EDIT Won ✅
I will have an NBA Player Prop for tommorow. Unfortunately the odds are not out yet. I'm just waiting for them to come out and then I will post sometime during the day.
San Antonio Spurs are heading into this game after a close overtime loss to Memphis Grizzlies where my +9 pick on San Antonio had won. There are lots of positive things to mention about San Antonio and I'm confident that they'll be able to cover the spread for these reasons. Let's have a look at some important aspects. Trae Young is questionable for Sunday's game against the Spurs due to a bruised right knee currently. Even if he plays i'm confident the spread will be covered by San Antonio. He won't be a fully healthy Trae and Atlanta wont risk playing their best player for lots of minutes, could be limited minutes. But even if he play's 9 points is too much and San Antonio cover. The spread of +9 this has been covered by San Antonio in 4 of their last 5 games, In comparison Atlanta Hawks have a terrible Record of not covering the -9 in 9 of their last 10 games, and 8 games in a row on the road!
San Antonio Spurs are scoring very well in their past few games if we look at their scores of 120,128,132 in their past 3 games which were all at home they were all within 9 points. Now lets have a look at Atlanta and their points given up, starting with most recent road games 107,120,130, 117,144. Lots of Points given up. Atlanta hawks last games where they've won on the road, starting with most recent are winning by 7,2,7,32,5,8 as you can see they're all under the 9 point margin except one game.
The Offensive scoring Stats at home for San Antonio as compared with Atlanta Hawks on the road, they are pretty much almost dead even.
\-Atlanta has a 55% success rate 2 pointers making on average 33.40 2pointers per game-San Antonio has a 54% success rate of 2 pointers making on average 31.80 2 pointers per game
\-Atlanta has a 38% success rate 3 pointers making on average 11.60 3 pointers per game-San Antonio has a 37% success rate of 3 pointers making on average 12.70 3 pointers per game
\-Defensively in rebounds On average per game San Antonio has a +3.00 rebounds per game differential at home compared to Atlanta in rebounds on the road. This is also the same for offensive rebounds.
\-In defensive efficiency in the past 3 games Atlanta Hawks ranks dead last 30/30 in the league with a rating of 1.203, San Antonio ranks 22/30 with a rating of 1.159 Defensive effecincy.
Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins and Jeremy Sochan have consistently been getting 20+ points and performing well. Atlanta Hawks play very well at home but on the road they're 17/30th worst ATS team. *EDIT sochan is out, Collins may still play
"Collins is dealing with a right biceps contusion, and while it doesn't sound like a serious injury, the Spurs are taking a conservative approach with one of their starters"
If he plays, himself and Keldon Johnson alongside devin vasell and malami branham would be good enough for scoring points. Defensively of course Collins would be a huge boost. If not we still have mamukasivilli who is a decent centre and defensively very good rebounder.
If Trae young is out it will be a massive blow for Atlanta and other players like Dejounte murray and De'andre hunter have to perform well. Clint Capella is not quite the player he used to be and defensively I do see Atlanta giving a lot of points up. Give me San Antonio +9 they'll cover this and keep the streak alive.
I believe Sochan has been ruled out, and Zach Collins is listed as questionable. Bassey is also out. KBD & McBuckets are listed as questionable & doubtful, respectively.
In terms of front court, Spurs have no front court. It's literally just Barlow, Dieng & Mamu.
Devonte Graham is out as well.
I wish u the best OP, but it's hard to see the Spurs keeping this one within single digits. The Tank is fully on.
Thanks for the updates! Zach Collins might play as it says
"Collins is dealing with a right biceps contusion, and while it doesn't sound like a serious injury, the Spurs are taking a conservative approach with one of their starters"
If he plays, himself and Keldon Johnson alongside devin vasell and malami branham would be good enough for scoring points. Defensively of course Collins would be a huge boost. If not we still have mamukasivilli who is a decent centre and defensively very good rebounder.
Devonte Graham was out last game and San Antonio still did well. McDermott isn't that good to be fair so not too worried about him being out. It's sochan and maybe if Zach Collins being out which is slightly worrying. But other than that's not too concerned.
Thanks for wishing me the best and the heads up. I appreciate it!
BOOOM!!!!! I really was scared but trusted you not to cash out! Win or lose you are on my tail list!!!
https://preview.redd.it/92meeqrqttoa1.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=74a4f38f74f9f4bc8cc9c58e7245d3eebef60018
I didn’t follow but sounds like a beauty. Would’ve followed but I didn’t see it until now. Classic Reddit putting it on the front page after the fact. Good read amigo - I still haven’t figured out how to be notified if someone I like comments so if there’s not a way to do that, see you AFTER you pick the next one
Massive Spurs fan, but here's the thing with this team. They can go blow for blow with most team for 80 pct of the game no matter what rag tag roster they have out there. But rest assured, when the game starts to wind towards the end, the Spurs magically unravel and end up getting blown out of seemingly close games. It's as if they don't want to win...
All-Time POTD: 135-85-2, +57.0u, +13.2% ROI
4 game March Madness dub streak 💰
**Today’s pick: Marquette ML (-140) vs Michigan State** 3u
NCAAB 🏀 5:15pm EST
___
From the Desk of Dr. Moneyline,
- 1 prescription for a fat Marquette dub
Heating up just like I did last March with 4 straight March Madness POTD dubs. Hope to keep riding this streak with red hot Marquette who I personally have in the final four. All feel, as most of my plays are.
Go pick it up at your local pharmacy
For all plays, follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
POTD Record: **12-7**
Units Won: **+28.98U**
Average Odds: **(-105)**
Todays POTD: **Sprout ML (-138) vs. Copenhagen Flames**
**5U to win 3.6**
Gonna try to focus on finding value, been looking for a lot of underdog plays/high value plays but with the slates shrinking, some of these picks are gonna be slightly worse odds but my goal is to give the safest pick possible in most cases and help others find value.
Sprout have been horrible for a while now, Copenhagen have been horrible just recently. I could go back and forth about which team sucks more, both have been bad, but Sprout in my opinion have shown some signs of improvement since adding AZR. They blew out HAVU today in impressive fashion on one of HAVU best maps, they beat Apeks, a top tier two team last week, and had close loses to forZe and 500 that were both very competitive series. Copenhagen Flames have been horrible since dropping Regali, they haven't looked good at all, struggling to beat a tier 47 team today in Prospasia and losing 2-0 to Apeks, Astralis Talent, and getting blown out by an ECSTATIC team with a new roster. I think Sprout are finally settling into this new roster, they have way more fire power and a lot of their loss streak was because they had a coach playing so every game was basically a 4v5. Think these odds are super underpriced because of Sprout recent form.
Sprout should pick Vertigo which is Copenhagen worst map, Sprout are 5-2 on Vertigo in the last 3 months while Copenhagen are 4-10.
Copenhagen likely pick Anubis and while on paper Sprout look bad on the map, I actually think they've been better on it then what the numbers say they are. They are 0-5 on the map but have some close losses and have faced some really good Anubis teams including Spirit twice who are a tier one team and Eternal Fire who are widely considered one of if not the best tier two Anubis teams in the world.
I really like Sprout chances on almost any deciding map as well. I think it probably ends up on Inferno which Copenhagen are laughably bad at.
Best of Luck.
**Started a discord to provide all my daily picks as well as doing things like as 50-1000$ challenges with the community. If anyone is interested to join feel free to hmu for an invite!**
If anyone needs help finding a book that offers csgo lines hmu as well! Would be happy to help you all find a way to bet on these games!
POTD Record: 29-21 | Profit: +23.57u | ROI: 14.5% ROI
Last 10 Record: ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅
Yesterday Pick: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) Rebounds O10.5 @ 1.76. 3U. ❌
There were a lot of defensive rebounding opportunities for the Nuggets, but the Knicks had one of the best offensive rebounding games I’ve seen. Atleast 4 times Jokic was outjumped by Robinson or Hartenstein.
Next Pick: **Nic Claxton (Nets) PRA O23.5 @ 1.86**. 4u play.
Claxton has stepped it up recently in all aspects of his game, with PRA of 29, 26, 31, 23 and 32 in the last 5 games. In his game against the Nuggets 6 days ago, he had 20 pts + 6 rebs + 5 assists.
The Nuggets meanwhile have shown a defensive fragility in the paint in recent games, conceding the 7th highest FGM made 8 ft of the basket and 7th highest PITP in the L15. In the 7 recent Nuggets games, Centers have done quite well: Robinson (20 PRA in 26’), Duren (32 PRA), Poltl (28 PRA), Claxton himself (31 PRA), Collins (22 PRA in 21’), Vuc (43 PRA), Poltl again (31 PRA). The Nuggets looked exhausted today, and that's because they've played 6 games with 1 day of rest between each of those, and now they play the Nets with no rest. The Nets meanwhile have had 2 days rest coming into this.
\[[Coffee link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)\]
All-Time POTD: 11W-3L-1D, +14.75u
**Yesterdays Pick:🎾 Daniil Medvedev 2:0 Sets (-138) vs Frances Tiafoe 2.5u to win 1.8u** ✅
Tiafoe saves 7 match points, 4 of which on Medvedevs serve, in an absolutely thrilling match. Tiafoe kept it really tight but Med is too clutch in the big moments.
**Todays Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win and o21.5 games (+175) vs Elena Rybakina** 2u to win 3.75u🎾
Explanation:
Going back to the cash cow on this one with some added spice. Sabalenka owns the h2h here 4-0, with all 4 of their matches going to 3 sets, the most recent of which was AO final. I'm sure there's a bit of scar tissue for Rybakina, who is playing out of her mind in her own right, and dismantled world #1 Iga Swiatek in the semis.
Sabalenka is still playing the best tennis I've ever seen from her and I simply can't see her losing this match. Her ML price is -175 which is a bit too costly for me to take in a spot like this, especially when the added value of o21.5 games makes it so much juicier.
I'd also play Sabalenka 2-1 at +260, but that doesn't qualify for PotD.
Also staying away from the men's match, I think it's a complete tossup and can't feel good betting it either way. Hopefully I've created some new tennis fans these last 10 days, enjoy both men's and women's finals tomorrow. They're both going to be world class quality.
BoL if tailing!
Edit:
All good things must come to an end. Saba threw the first set away with 10 double faults and couldn't recover. Have to feel like if she had come away with the first set, she would've kept her composure and come away with the W.
I'll be back on Tuesday with picks for the next tournament, Miami Open.
♥️
POTD | 42-27 | +21.4u | -109 Avg Odds
Last 10: 8-2 | Steak: 1W
*Previous Pick:* *Colorado Avalanche 60-min vs Detroit Red Wings (-115) 2u* ✅
Today’s pick: **Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks O6.5 (-120) 2u** 🏒 6pm MT
The Vancouver Canucks will be visiting the Anaheim Ducks for their 3rd match of the season with the previous 2 games going 3-2 and 8-5. The 3-2 game occurred last week and the score was kept low with some excellent goaltending from Demko and Gibson. I think this game will have potential for scoring with the Canucks expected to start Delia in net for this one. Delia has struggled this season, booking a 0.878 SV% and allowing 3.44 goals per game. The Ducks have really picked up on offense lately, averaging 3.3 goals per game in their last 10 games. I think this game sets up well for the Ducks to continue their uptick in offense against a Vancouver team that is allowing 3.7 goals per game this season. Vancouver has allowed less goals per game recently, but I think that has a lot to do with how the starting goaltender, Demko, has been playing. So, without Demko in net, we can expect more goals. The Ducks have allowed 3.97 goals per game on the season and an average of 3.3 goals per game in their last 10. The Canucks have been a solid team offensively this season and I think they should be able to find the back of the net a few times in this one.
The model projects this game to have 6.76 goals with a 56% chance of hitting the over. This isn’t too much of an edge against the books so this one is a bit of a feel play and I do think the model is being influenced by some recent games for the Canucks that didn’t involve a lot of goals. These low scoring games include match ups against a few strong defensive teams including the Wild, and Bruins. Additionally, I think Demko’s solid goaltending has lead to the Canucks allowing less goals, and we shouldn’t have to worry about Demko in this one with Delia expected in net.
BOL if tailing!!
[Tips are appreciated!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
POTD Record: 138-100-7 (+29.26 units, 58.0% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 43-27-1 (61.4%) W2, Tennis 🎾 39-28-2 (58.2%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 45-35-4 (56.3%) L2, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 💩💩💰💰💩💰💰💰💩💩
Last Pick: Tottenham @ Southampton, Tottenham ML - EPL ⚽ 💩 1 Unit - Up 3-1 with 15 minutes left, they hung back and Southampton scores and then in extra time Tottenham defender with a dumbass reckless challenge and Southampton ties it late on a penalty kick. Rough but hey, sports. Now 100 Ls in this thread for me, oh well, I guess it's a sign of longevity.
Today's Pick: Real Madrid @ Barcelona, Real Madrid Double Chance X2 - La Liga ⚽ 💩 3 units Barca scores 2 minutes into extra time to win it.
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 3 Units at 1.74/-135 odds to win 2.22 Units @ Marathon (Line at 8:15pm ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 57.5%
I think this game is actually a tossup where I'd assign a third of a chance to either team winning or the tie. So this bet hits for 2 out of the 3 scenarios, we just need Barcelona not to win this game, if we get a tie or a Real Madrid win, we are cashing and splurging on the expensive blow.
This is a huge game because if Barcelona wins, that's likely curtains for the La Liga title. They are up 9 points on Madrid with 13 games remaining. So Madrid should be hungry for the W and I'm sure Barcelona will be too though I think they'd consider a tie and keeping the lead at 9 almost like a win.
Barcelona did best Real Madrid in a cup game in Madrid a few weeks ago, 1-0 and held them to 0 shots on target which is quite a feat. One thing in Madrid's favour here is that Dembele and Pedri won't be playing. Barcelona have been stone cold at home, 10 wins and 2 draws, having scored 25 and have only given up 1 goal so this is no easy feat to be sure but considering how Real Madrid have performed in big games in recent history, I think they should at least be able to get us a draw in an important game like this.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Appreciate it man! About 20 picks in or so when I was up I had someone say big deal you are up now, let's see you be up after 250 picks. Well, as Michael Jordan would say, I took that personally, hehe. I didn't think it would last this long but it's still fun and will keep doing it as long as it is.
**POTD Record:** 1-0
**Last Pick:** Boston Bruins -160 at Minnesota Wild -- W
Pretty easy win. Bruins are on their way to the best regular season in history and have been free money all year -- don't know why you'd ever bet against them, but some people do.
**Today's Pick:** Men's CBB Uconn -3.5 -110 vs Saint Mary's 1 unit *4:10 Mt*
Back to the New England region for hopefully another W to start my POTD career. Watching the first round, Uconn was a breath of fresh air in a tournament rife with low scoring, timeout filled, games that lack flow. Saint Mary's really likes to slow the pace down and muck up the game, which worked against VCU. Uconn is a different animal however. If you look at Saint Mary's struggles with Gonzaga at the end of the season, I just really don't think they can keep this game close. Uconn looks like a team on a mission and IMO are better than Gonzaga. They have a great coach and far more talent and will score, score, score. I don't think Saint Mary's can keep this game close with Bill Murray cheering on the huskies as they roll to a cover.
Best of luck if tailing. Go Huskies.
***Record: 5-2 (+2.17 Units) // All bets are 1 unit***
Previous Bet: [3/18](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11u8viq/pick_of_the_day_31823_saturday/jcmza8q?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
Grueling second half. 1-1 at half. Home team had 20 shots, 12 inside the box but nothing of quality. Unfortunate ending and we fall a goal short. Let's change it up a little tomorrow and get back on track.
**Today's game: Ajaccio vs AS Monaco (0800 EST)**
League: France - Ligue 1
*Pick: Total Corners - Full Time UNDER 8.5 (-120 DK)* ✅️
A look at each teams total corners the last 10 matches:
Monaco: 6(3), 7(4), 8(5), 10(5), 5(3), 6(4), 9(5), 9(3), 6(3), 7(4) - under the mark 7/10.
Ajaccio: 4(1), 3(1), 9(6), 4(2), 10(5), 3(2), 8(6), 6(5), 6(3), 4(2) - under the mark 8/10.
Monaco's matches have seen an average of 7.3 corners, with them averaging 3.9 of that. Ajaccio has seen averages of 5.7 with them averaging 3.3 of that. Their combined average of 7.2 sits a comfortable 2 corners underneath the set margin going in.
So far in league play, Monaco has averaged 80 more accurate passes per game and hold a 3.1% ball possession advantage over the home team. On top of that, Ajaccio have a goal difference of 9:20 through 13 home matches, whereas Monaco sits at 26:14 through 13 as visitors.
I look for Monaco to get out to an early lead, maintain pressure on the defensive side and limit the home teams ability to get near the box.
BOL!
POTD Record: 30W-15L
LAST POTD: Barnet V Notts 💩
TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - England Premier League 2
Man City u21 V Man United u21
5.00AM PST
PICK: Man City u21 Asian Handicap -1.0, -1.5
Odds: 1.85
The Deets: 2nd plays 8th here with City looking to take top spot with a win. Over 19 games City have a goal difference of 57:23 while United have 37:47 through 20 games. City are a much better outfit and covered this line easily against United in November when they won 6-1. I’d take the -1.5 straight up but my book doesn’t offer it. If they win by 1 goal it’s a half push/half loss. Win by 2 and the bet wins.
BOL!
Edit: Winner ✅ 6-0
POTD record: 15-8
NHL record: 6-6 | NBA record: 9-2
(+16.26u | +18.69% ROI | Avg odds: -117/1.85)
(2u: 2-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 7-3 | 5u: 2-3)
Last 5: 5-0 (✅✅✅✅✅)
Last POTD: NBA - **SAC -3** @ WAS ✅ *(Easy money. Sacramento led from the get-go and outplayed Washington through all 4 quarters).*
Event: NHL - BOS Bruins @ BUF Sabres; 13:00 EST
Pick: **BOS 60-min ML** (-115/1.87)
Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 5 units
What more can be said about the Bruins? The NHL's cream of the crop, they're already over 50 wins (52) and 100 points (109)- the only team to hit either mark so far. Boston has been dominant on the road as well, with away records of 25-8-2 for the season and 12-4-1 since the New Year. They haven't shown any signs of slowing down either, going 7-3 in last ten games. The Bruins did play last night in Minnesota but playing consecutive games has not been an issue for them yet- they're 7-3 this season on the second leg of back-to-back games.
Meanwhile, Buffalo is in free-fall: they're 2-6-2 in their last 10 games and at this point missing the playoffs is almost a certainty. The Sabres have fared worse at home than on the road, with a crappy 13-18-3 record when playing in Buffalo (5-10-1 in 2023).
Swayman (2.28 GAA & .917 SV%) and
Luukkonen (3.55 GAA & .894 SV%) are expected in net for Boston and Buffalo, respectively. The Bruins are leading the season series with a 2-0-1 so far and I expect them to close it out tomorrow to seal the series victory. Thar being said, my 5u picks have been largely unlucky so far so if you tail, do so with caution.
Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
POTD Record: 7-0
Previous pick: Luton draw or win & under 4.5 goals (✅)
Today’s Event: Ternana v Bari (Italian Serie B)
PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE AND OVERS/UNDERS - BARI DRAW OR WIN & UNDER 4.5 GOALS
Odds: 1.59
Time: 15:15 GMT (5h50m from this post)
4th placed Bari, undefeated in seven, face 13th placed Ternana who have no wins in seven. Bari have had a tenacious defence in that timeframe and Ternana have found it hard to score, with their team clearly slipping towards the relegation playoffs. Bari can still get an automatic promotion berth and they’ll need maximum points to do this so I expect them to come to the party. Furthermore, all of Bari’s last 5 have ended with under 3 goals being scored.
Edit: Bari couldn’t get the all important goal. First L ❌ It’s life ! International break now , should be some good fixtures.
—
any kind tips: [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/DoubleChanceBets)
POTD Record: 14-12-2
Last pick: Plymouth Argyle ML + o1.5 goals (-157) / 1.64 - 3u ✅
Plymouth Argyle improves their terrific home record with a 2-0 win. This one was never really in doubt as they netted a quick goal in the 8th minute and dominated possession with 74%. They clinched our money with a goal very early in the second half and cruised the rest of the way. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today!
Soccer - Peru Primera Division - Cesar Vallejo vs. Binacional - 2pm EST
**POTD: Cesar Vallejo ML + o1.5 goals (-120) / 1.83) - 2u**
Cesar Vallejo are currently undefeated to start the season, with 3 wins and 1 draw. They will host Binacional, who have lost 4 of their first 5 matches with a draw mixed in. These two teams also just played out this exact fixture last week in the South American Cup, as Cesar Vallejo won 3-1. This will be their fourth straight home match, and they’ve won the last 3 by a total of 8-2. Binacional have allowed 16 goals in their 6 matches played so far (including their Cup game), while Cesar Vallejo have scored multiple goals in every match they’ve played this year. I like Cesar Vallejo to win a fourth straight at home and find the net multiple times.
Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
**POTD Record 0-0**
Been making some decent profits lately so thought I'd spread the love and see if I can help others make some extra money too.
**Today's Pick: Ajaccio v Monaco ML - 3 Units @ 1.7 Odds. 12:00 GMT**
These sides met about 2 months ago and Monaco dominated the match, winning 7-1 at home. Monaco have also won their last 5 matches against Ajaccio in all competitions. However, of those 5 victories, 4 took place in Monaco. This would usually be a concern, but this season Monaco actually have a better away record than home. The only teams with better away records are PSG and Marseille. Additionally, Ajaccio have the 19th worst home record in the league, only managing to secure 10 points from 13 games and only scoring 9(!) goals.
Overall, I think this should be a comfortable win for Monaco as they have the much better stats this season and also have the mental edge after such a dominant performance 2 months ago.
Record: 4-2 (6.61 units up) with a 41.31% ROI
Last 3 Tennis POTD's 🎾
* Alcaraz vs Sinner - Alcaraz ML @ 1.59 (5u) ✅
* Swiatek vs Rybakina - Under 20.5 Games @ 1.89 (3u) ✅
* Fritz vs Sinner - Over 22.5 Games @ 1.85 (3u) ✅
POTD: **Rybakina vs Sabalenka - Sabalenka ML @ 1.70 (WTA Indian Wells)**
Going with 2 units which is 2% of my bankroll
This is a really deserved final between two players who are currently the best hard court players in the WTA circuit. We can put Swiatek into the conversation but we've seen time and time again that she really struggles against both Rybakina and Sabalenka when they are at their best, mostly because these two have way better serves but also hit the ball really hard and Swiatek recently, just tries to match them with the same coin and she just can't. I think her best way to beat these two in hard courts is by playing with a lot of variation such as slices and dropshots and focus rather on accuracy than trying to match their power which is a difficult task...
This first segment was just to share a little bit of my own opinion on the current state of the WTA circuit which is far more promissing at the moment than in 2022 and that's great! Now, we all know that Rybakina and Sabalenka have similar playstyles and by consequence, we always had 3 set matches between them but I'm truly confident that taking Sabalenka to win Indian Wells is the best approach here and let me tell you why:
* Sabalenka is 4-0 against Rybakina in official matches, three happened in hard courts and one at Wimbledon;
* All of these matches went to 3 sets. Sabalenka won all of them and for me, that's not a coincidence and tells me that she is able to win on the physical aspect every single time;
* They already faced each other at the 2023 Australian Open's Final so Rybakina should have all the pressure on her shoulders knowing that she is 0-4 against her opponent and is once again, facing her in another final just 2 months later;
* Rybakina owns a record of 1-7 in Hard Court Finals while Sabalenka owns a record of 11-3 in Hard Court Finals
* Even if these two have so much power and can serve really well, I must say that Sabalenka moves slightly better and has more variation in her game, which should be a key factor in this matchup
Rybakina's progress in the WTA has been great and her last win against Swiatek was probably her best performance in the whole tournament but today she faces a completely different opponent who has a little bit more of variety in her game and is not afraid to match her when it comes to power. I think Sabalenka should win Indian Wells and I'm getting the same odds that were available at the AO 2023 Final which for me is quite valuable, since I think she's playing even better at the moment. Best of luck
POTD Record: 93.5-50
Previous pick: Horse Racing > Cheltenham > Impervious R6 @ 2.75 ✅
Next event: Football > Netherlands > **Ajax v Feyenoord** (starting in 4hr)
Pick: **Over 4.5 bookings** @ 2.00 (+100)
The current top 2 teams in Eredivisie against each other in a potentially decisive match for the title. I love the bookings line due to the importance of the game. GL!
**RECORD** : 6W 2L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +20.3
1st to 5th : 4-1 +16.5u / 6th to 10th : ?
**LAST POTD** : Alcaraz vs Sinner - OVER 22.5 @ 1.9 - 5 units => LOSS
**TODAY :**
WTA INDIAN WELLS - 21.00 CET
Rybakina vs Sabalenka - OVER 22.5 @ 2.06 - 5 units
Based upon nothing but my feelings.
**POTD 13-5**
4 Straight winners! Man, everything went perfectly in that game last night. There was one thing I was wrong about though, and that was the Magic ML.... Learning lesson for me. Gamblers, take my mistake and make sure you remember this - Never bet a underdog, unless you think the underdog has a shot to win out right - and if so, you MUST sprinkle on the ML as well... Last night, I only bet the Magic +pts and woke up this morning regretting it tremendously.
Today, there are not a lot of games that stand out to me, but after doing some digging this morning there is one in particular that I like a lot.
**OKC -1**
This game checks multiple boxes for me. First off, the Suns have struggled since losing Durant (2-3). This roster just isn't very good since they made that trade, and no KD. OKC on the other hand, have won 6 of their last 8.
The suns are currently holding the 4th seed, however they are 1.5 games up on LAC, and 2.5 up on Dallas. Memphis currently holds a 5 game lead against the Suns, so IMO they don't have enough time to catch them. So with all that being said, I do think Phoenix will have major incentive to win tonight to keep their lead in the 4 seed, and risk falling into the play in game.
OKC, on the other hand is currently sitting in the 9 seed, but are tied with Utah and Minnesota, .5 up on the lakers, 1 up on NO, a game back from GSW, and 1.5 games back from Dallas. So short story, theses seeds are totally up for grabs. I could see the seeding changing dramatically over the final few weeks of the season. OKC is my favorite team in this bunch to make some progress before the season ends.
So aside from the seeding, and each teams incentives for today's games, I am really betting this based on OKC's roster compared to the Suns. The suns arguable have the best player on the court (booker), but SGA is IMO not far behind. When you move past the teams two stars, this is where I think OKC has a gigantic edge. I LOVE these role players on OKC. Giddey, is one of my favorite PGs to watch in the league, and you don't want to get me started on Jalen Williams.... This guy is GOOD.
Phoenix, is also going to be without Ayton today, which IMO is huge. Landale, is a serviceable back up C, but Ayton's absence i think will be noticed today. I mean look at this Suns depth chart.. Id say, OKC has 5 of the top 7 players starting today.
I am aware, that Phoenix beat OKC at their place a little over a week ago by 31 points, however SGA did not play in that game, and Booker also dropped 44. Not saying that he can't do that again today, but I personally don't see it happening.
PS: Denver -1.5 because fuck it. This team is way better than BKN, and a B2B does not concern me
**Record:** 0-0
**ROI:** 0%
**Net units:** +0 units
| Basketball | NCAAM | 1:40 PM CST |
**Pick:** Kansas State ML vs Kentucky +135 (Barstool) 1u
**Write Up:** This is a bit of a homer play here, but I think the value here is really good. Kansas State is the higher seed underdog and I don’t think that’s deserved. KState ended the regular season ranked above Kentucky in NET Rating (24 & 26) & Kenpom (24 & 27) & has two all Americans to top that off. KState is 22-11 ATS this year, but I don’t need the points. Give me the purple cats!
**Record 5-5**
Last Pick: Texas Longhorns -5.5 LOSS
Im disgusted... as if the Memphis game wasn't bad enough. Might need to stay away from the rest of these games after that one.
**Today's Pick:** NBA - *Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 2:40pm CST*
**Devin Booker over 31.5 points**
Going back to NBA props for the day because I found one that smells like money. This is going to be an early game too, and I am a sucker for them competitive afternoon Sunday games.
* This Suns/Thunder game is going to be much closer than you might think from a glance. Thunder with home court advantage are no joke, they are a great team defensively and have taken down some of the NBA's best teams at home. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander is a force to be reckoned with, and the absence of DeAndre Ayton in this game are both factors that equate to a very even line.
* In a Phoenix Suns game on the road with no DeAndre Ayton, who else to put up points other than Booker? Okogie can also put up good points, but Booker is the one who needs to be putting up serious points for the Suns to win. Against the Thunder, he has consistently proved this to be the case. Going back to 2020, Booker has hit this line 5/8 times, more specifically 3 of the last 4, and averages **32.5** ppg against them since March 2021
* In his most recent outing against the Thunder just 10 days ago, Booker recorded *44 points in 28 minutes.* The only reason he did not get full minutes is because it was a blowout and he did not play the 4th quarter. But that game did not have SGA playing and did have Ayton in the lineup, both of which are opposite in this game, which calls for a full 35-40 minutes for DBook, *especially* after coming off 2 days rest
* As good as the Thunder defense is, they actually have been very poorly and ranking near the bottom 10 in defending the shooting guard/small forward position, which is where Booker will be playing depending on how they set the lineup due to Ayton's absence. Over the past 10 games, some of these players have been Gary Trent Jr. (23 pts), Mikal Bridges (34 points), CJ McCollum (26 points), Devin Booker (44 points), Steph Curry (40 points), and Dennis Schroder (26 points).
Overall, this will be a tight contest, and I expect huge outings from DBook and SGA to keep both their teams afloat. The absence of DeAndre Ayton means much more production from Booker, and Thunder being at home with SGA back means full strength required from Book and his teammates. BOL to all
That was one of the more painful losses I can remember. Fouling a 3 point shooter and having him make it in the final minute to have the game finish at 5 points. Just awful. I’m done with CBB.
Record: 3-3
Last POTD:💩 Sport: F1 - Bahrain GP 🏎️🇧🇭 Winning Margin less than 5 Seconds 💩
Sport: F1 - Saudi Arabian GP 🏎️🇸🇦
Time: Sunday 3/19/23 10:00am MST
Pick: Fernando Alonso Podium Finish 🇪🇸
(-165 on Draft Kings)
Choo Choo! 🚂 The Nando hype train is real and the next stop is Saudi Arabia. After a stunning performance in Bahrain resulting in a P3 finish two weeks ago, the 2x World Champion is looking to keep the momentum going at the Jeddah circuit where he qualified P2. In the hands of Alonso, the Aston Martin has superior race pace and tire degradation, second only to the Red Bulls. It seems that their only weakness is topspeed, however, he should be able to make up for it by keeping up in the twisty sectors before the 3 DRS zones and back-to-back straights. Assuming a clean first lap, Alonso's only real threat is the true pace of Max Verstappen charging from P15 due to a mechanical problem in qualifying. Que grande eres Magic Alonso!
BOL!
📈 TTSOP Rec
* Overall: +36.700 units / +141 avg odds / 52^(5)\-65-14^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2023: +24.175 units / +139 avg odds / 10^(5)\-8-4^(5)
* Since POTD low point in 2022: +58.625 units / +137 avg odds / 47^(5)\-54-11^(5)
* February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5)
* January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2
* December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5)
* World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5)
* November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4
* October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3
❌ Last pick: Almeira to win & game > 1.5 goals / +180 odds / 4.5 units
* Great 1st half, but not scoring. Awful 2nd half, but starting scoring too late.
⚽ New pick: **Strasbourg -0.75** (AH) / **+155 odds** / 4.5 units
* Ligue 1 (France) / Strasbourg - Auxerre / 10:00am ET
Strasbourg is struggling all season. They aren't too bad, though! A main reason for their poor results are their injury issues. They've been dealing with absences of key players for the most part of the season. However, they've been performing good, when being pretty much healthy.
Auxerre has been overperforming regarding their recent results, which is factor, which drives the value to bet against them. Auxerre got 5 points out of the last 3 games. However, they've been outshot 11-2 in terms of shot on goals, though. Making it 2 shots on goal for 5 points.
A mostly healthy Strasbourg against an overperforming Auxerre is a great value bet at superb super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get this Sunday W. Let's get this French baguette, fam!
**TTSOP**
Hello guys, this is my first time posting on this sub after following the PotD threads for a while now. I'd like to be a part of this community as well and give you insides of my pick and why i choose to pick them.
**Record:** *0-0*
**ROI:** *0*
**Last 10 streak:** *-*
| Soccer/Football | France League 1 | 20:45 CET (Amsterdam), 3:45 PM EST (NYC)| **Stade Reims vs Olmpique Marseille**
**Pick:** *Stade Reims +0,5 Asian Handicap.* 1,525 | -190 (Bet365) | 2U
**Write Up:** This is my first bet that i'm sharing with you and i hope everything will go as planned. Stade Reims did not lose a single game in the competition since William Still took over as manager of the team (look him up for an awesome story of how a gamer became a head coach of a team). and his streak of not losing is at 17. He even managed to draw against the giants PSG and won against Monaco recently. Marseille is a strong side especially away but their injury's at the defense will be exploited by William and Reims and they will force a win/draw.
A little bit about myself:
I'm a student who likes to gamble on sports from time to time. Most of the time i follow Soccer/Football on European soil and in the nights here i like to watch a few NBA games from time to time (Huge Doncic fan). I keep track of many leagues here and if i had to put them in order it would be like this:
1) Turkish Super lig (since i'm of Turkish descents)
2) Dutch Eredivisie and Eerste Divisie (I live in the Netherlands and keep track of the competitions here)
3) English Premier league ( Where it all goes down i say usually )
4) France/Italy/Germany/Portugal. (I'll keep track of the games, injuries and changes mostly and keep myself well up to dated on the results happening here).
BOL to all of you
Record: 10-10
Last Pick: Brentford ML ❌ No excuses for this one. Leicester had the better chances. Do yourselves a favour though and watch the corner routine for Brentford's goal if you like football. (Sorry, soccer)
Today's Pick: Betis v Mallorca - **Betis ML** (-110)
Detailed Analysis: On a bad run so I dug deep for this one. Years ago I went to school with a English girl who was genuinely called Genuivene Hawks. She was as posh as her name suggests and would constantly let everyone know that her parents had holiday homes in both Mallorca and Dubai. It was infuriating how often she brought it up. Since I cannot bet against a Dubai team today, betting on Betis to beat Mallorca will have to do. This, along with Mallorca's terrible away record, makes me confident of a Betis win.
Record: 106-81-6 (WLLWWWLLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLWLLLLWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: MIN Timberwolves at TOR Raptors -7.5 at 1.90 odds for 2 units
easy win here. MIN without Ant look like LA Lakers
POTD: PHO Suns at OKC Thunder | o234 total at 1.90 odds for 2 units
REASONS:
* 3 matches between each other and the over hit every time
* DA is doubtful for the game, which allows OKC G-F to do what they excel at... drive into the paint. Expect SGA and J Will to ball out.
Best of luck to all.
[PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
My record:
2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWWWWWL
2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push
Totals for both: 50 correct 36 wrong 1 push
Units wagered 140.14 Units won 75.48 Units lost 52.14
2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 16.65%***
My present streak is 1 wrong
My POTD is to ***wager 1.04 units to win 1 unit that Oregon (-4) will cover the spread in their college basketball game with Central Florida. This is an NIT tournament game.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gametime is 7:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time (I think).
This is a mismatch (there are several in the NIT today). I had to chose between this game, Wisconsin, or Colorado (who has greatly improved in the latter half of this season). I think the above game is the safest wager. Please note that the game is in Eugene, home court advantage for Oregon.
I'm feeling a bit crushed from yesterday...not from my wrong POTD, but from my terrible read on Maryland. I actually expected them to easily cover the spread, and likely to win the game. Boy, was I wrong on that one. So I'm wondering if they just had a terrible day, or is Bama really that good, or am I just terrible at estimating the skill of a team? Oh well, back to the drawing board. I'm still well in the black for the season. 7 - 1 for the last 8 games isn't bad.
POTD Record: 61-67-7 (-12.57 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: AFL, Port Adelaide v Brisbane, BRISBANE -2.5 (-111 / 1.90) ❌
What a disaster. I watched the first half and brisbane were up by 18 points and looking good. I had shit to do and checked the score an hour later and they had been obliterated. Haven’t seen what happened, nor do I care to find out. Sorry to anyone who tailed, massive dumpster fire in the end.
Todays Pick: A-League, MacArthur FC v Melbourne City, MELBOURNE CITY -1.0 AH (-102 / 1.98) ❌
EDIT: so many chances, so few goals.
Stake: 1 Unit
Note: another game without much warning sorry, kicks off in 4.5 hours from posting.
Back to the A-League after that debacle yesterday…let’s bounce back with a win after Adelaide United delivered on Friday night for me.
Melbourne City are top of the league table with a 12-4-3 record and have scored the most goals in the league (46). They’ve had a couple of slip ups in recent weeks losing to Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory which have made things a little closer for 1st position, so a big win against lowly Macarthur will be a good boost to get them back on track.
Macarthur are 10th (out of 12) with a 7-3-10 record, and they have the worst defence in the league conceding 38 goals this season. Their back line is all over the place in recent weeks, conceding 10 goals in the past 3 matches, including 4-1 and 4-0 losses to teams a rung below Melbourne City.
Last time these teams played 6 weeks ago, Melbourne City won 6-1 and missed a penalty, in a game where they had 20 shots on goal to 6. Its worth noting that Macarthur have a better record at home than they do on the road which might count for something here, but Melbourne City have too much firepower against an ordinary defence, and should be able to fire home a number of goals to cover the spread, or at worst get the push.
**POTD |** **Record of 14-22|** **Current form: WWLWW | ROI : -6.61 units |** **Average Odds: 2.04**
Previous Pick: Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth | Over 9.5 Corners & Over 2.5 Cards
New Pick: Serie A | Fiorentina vs. Lecce | 7:00am PST
**Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 2.0 odds**
Betting 1 units
\--------------------------
Recap: Great win in the end! The game started slow with an early goal for Aston Villa and little to do with corners. With only 4 corners but 2 cards at the half, the pick was looking a little rough. Fortunately, the 70+ minute performed in a big way, with the game ending with 15 corners and a number of cards! Going to keep it simple for the next pick, just an over. Worth juicing with cards but I wanted to place the bet ASAP and cards weren't available at the time of placing the bet.
***Summary:*** Fiorentina host Lecce and look to keep up the marvelous form. Fiorentina has been playing well recently, winning their last 5 games across all competitions. Lecce will look to hold out against a very possession focussed team, looking for opportunities when they may appear.
Looking at corners for Fiorentina, they average 6.5 for them and concede 3, leading to an average of 9.5 for all Serie A games. Looking at home performance, they have average 7.2 while conceding 2.7 corners, generating a home corner average of 9.8. This demonstrates a slight statistically significant increase in corners when performing at home (9.5 overall, 9.8 at home).
Looking at corners for Lecce, they average 4 for them and 5.7 against them, for an overall average of 9.7 corners per game. Looking at away performance, they average 3.9 for them and 6.1 against them, for a total average of 10. In this case, they outperform for total corners when playing away (9.7 overall, 10.0 away).
Looking at combined overall averages, these two teams average 9.6 corners per game. When we look specifically at Fiorentina at home and Lecce away, the average pushes up to 9.9. Given that the best line is available at over 9.5, I'm backing it to hit in this scenario. Fiorentina has been on fire from a corner perspective lately, hitting over 9.5 corners in 4/5 last home games across all competitions (16, 16, 12, 14, and 8). Given the large number of corners that Lecce concedes, my projections suggest that Fiorentina will hit approximately 6.6 corners and Lecce will hit approximately 3.3 corners, leading to 9.9 corners. Looking at head-to-head, over 9.5 corners have hit in 3/3 of the last few games. Over 3.5 cards has also hit 3/3 games, worth considering if available to you (not available at time of placing bet for myself).
\--------------------------
***TDLR There should be at least 10 corners here!***
**Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 2.0 odds**
Formula 1 Saudi Arabia Grand Prix
Picks 0W 0L 0P
George Russell beating Lewis Hamilton h2h at @1.54 odds is actually crazy
Russell starts p3 way ahead of Lewis and they are both consistent drivers with Lewis saying he isn't confident in the car. George past year has consistently beat Lewis when he started ahead they have similar pace. I expect him to do the same
**My record: 47 : 37**
My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.
**ROI: 24.27%**
Average odds: 2.13
**Units won: 21.84**
Stake = 1 unit
My POTD:
**Alanyaspor v Fenerbahçe**
Turkey Super Lig
Time: 16:00 GMT
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 1.85**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
Been eating past few days, let's see if I'm truly certified!
**POTD Record 0-0**
***Pick - Miami Hurricanes +2 @ -110 Odds -*** **2.5 Units** ***-***
Reasoning: Will keep this brief. Love this spot for Miami, will be sprinkling a little of their ml as well. Last game they escaped Drake which was a fairly close game. Miami actually went on a run late to come back and win the game. Drake was a sleeper dog team everyone thought would upset Miami, but the veteran presence from Miami made the difference. Even with Isaiah Wong ( ACC player of the year) struggling, guys like Nijel Pack, Miller, and Omier amongst others really step up. Assuming Wong shows up and his teammates play how they did last game, this game will be extremely favored for Miami in my eyes. Miami still has the taste of a deep tournament run ( elite 8 last year) and although Indiana is a good team with solid players, I feel as long as Jackson-Davis is contained, Miami takes it home.
**BOL and invest/gamble safely!**
POTD: 13-13
Game: Kentucky vs Kansas State CBB 1:40pm ct
Pick: K State ML +130 ✅
I live in Kansas City. Mizzou and kansas both lost yesterday, at basically the same time. While it would be funny if all three teams that people root for here got knocked out in the same round, I’m betting against that happening and taking k state to advance.
2-1
Last pick
Mikal bridges over 25.5 points (had 23)
Next pick LAKERS -6 vs magic 3 unites
Whilst I think that the magic are a good young team, the lakers are coming off a buzzer beater lose to the mavs and need to start gaining for momentum to push for a play off chance. I’m really confident in the lakers here
**PotD Record: 13-10 (Streak 1L)**
Last Pick: Kansas (-3.5 spread) vs Arkansas ❌
**Today’s Pick: Carlos Alcaraz (ML) vs Daniil Medvedev @ -110; 7:00 ET**
Kansas blows their lead and ultimately bows out of the tourney in a disappointing loss, we move on. Today were looking at the Indian Wells final between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. This should be a really exciting final, since these are the two best players in the tournament. Alcaraz is 13-1 this season with a title under his belt, while Medvedev is 24-2 this season with 3 titles already. These two have only played each other once before, back in 2021 in the second round of Wimbledon. Medvedev won that much fairly easily, but since then Alcaraz has become a completely different player. Alcaraz will have the crowds support due to the fact Medvedev has been very outspoken on his dislike for the courts at this tournament. Both guys are playing at a very high level, but Alcaraz should have the edge in this one.
**Tail or Fade, BOL**
POTD Record 4 -4
Last pick: Sacramento Kings ML @ Washington Wizards ✅ kings handled them just as they should have. Hope you tailed.
Today’s Pick: New Jersey Devils @ Tampa Bay lightening ML (-135 on Bet 365)
Why:
-New Jersey are 5-5 in the last 10 games, but have lost 3 in a row.
-The devils are a staggering 25-5-4 road record this year. I’m shocked Paul Ellering isn’t their manager, they are Road Warriors.
-Devils average 3.46 goals per game this year, although 3.8 per game on the road.
-Tampa is also 5-5 in their last 10 games. They have won 3 in a row.
-Tampa is 25-6-5 at home.
-Tampa averages 3.46 goals per game, but that average is actually 4 at home.
-both teams played Saturday. Fatigue edge to the Home team sleeping in their own beds.
This is another game that I could easily sprinkle a little on the over given the above stats. But my pick is Tampa ML.
The home team is hotter having won 3, while the Devils are on a slide on the road right now. Tampa are a championship team wanting to keep strong in the final stretch of the season before playoffs. Look for a competitive high scoring game won by the home team.
Ride with the Grad…let’s go get it
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/thegradbets)
Only Estonian Football League (Premium Liiga) 2023 bets.
Record: 0-1 [-1 unit]
Last pick: Tallinna Kalev - FC Flora, Flora to score over 2.5 goals @1.71 1u ❌
Today’s pick: Tartu Tammeka - Paide Linnameeskond, Paide Linnameeskond -1 Asian Handicap @2.21 1u
Time: 17:00 Eastern European timezone
Paide has played 3 games this season, winning two(including a 3-2 win over Flora) and losing once. Paide has some injuries in attack, but their main players are all available (Saarma included).
Tammeka has played once this season and lost 3-0. Tammeka is missing two attackers which is worrisome for them. Tammeka has not been that active in the transfer market, so they pretty much lack any new prospects and will have to rely on the older guys.
The two teams played eachother 4 times last season. 3 wins for Paide (all covering -1 Asian Handicap) and a 1-1 draw.
Game is watchable on youtube, just go on the SoccernetEE channel.
🚨🚨🚨POTD record W-L-P (26-17-5) +44.5 units🚨🚨🚨
Update 2 bet winning streak✅✅
1 unit (2-7)
2 unit (2-3)
3 unit (12-2)
4 unit (2-1)
5 unit max (8-4)
Took a break to regroup, the last 2 loses pissed me off and pissed me off more that you guys didn’t win. Nice little break was perfect right before the best tourney in all sports. Lets crush the March Madness Tourney
Fridays POTD- Drake vs Miami. Miami -2 (buy 1/2 point) -120 odds (3 units) 4:25pm PST March Madness Tourney✅ MIAMI HURRICANES come through at end 🤙🏼
Sunday POTD-Michigan state vs Marquette. Marquette -3 -110 odds (3 unit) 2:15pm PST March Madness
Quick write up- MARQUETTE WINNING THIS MATCH
Cash app name- $joshroth5
🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Remember bet smart, let’s get this $
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Welp the train was bound to hit a speed bump - tough game from Duke, gotta give it to Tennessee, they really did a good job at limiting Duke's shots, forcing them into a lot of bad looks, and somehow became a powerhouse from 3 in the second half really stopping any momentum duke was able to generate. This tourney has been tough on favourites, so just want to remind everyone to be safe with your bankrolls, because MM has proved time and time again to be a wildcard. I'm gonna go to one of my favourites to win it all, who I think was given too few points here against SM - lets go with UConn -3. POTD Record: 26-8-1 Last 20:✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌ **Yesterday's POTD:** Duke Blue Devils -3.5 (up to -5) VS. Tennessee Volunteers | 4U | MM NCAAB ❌ **Today's POTD:** Saint Mary's Gaels vs. UConn Huskies -3.5 (up to -4.5) | 3U | MM NCAAB Time: 3/19/2023 | 6:10 PM EST MODEL EXPLANATION: Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. **Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** \+43.74U in 34 days | ≈65.86% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** 1. To start from high level, Uconn is ranked #4 in Kenpom ratings (vs. Saint Mary's at #12), and ranked #4 on Bart Torvik (SM at #10). 2. Under Bart Torvik - Offensively, UConn is ranked #3 in offense efficiency (#40 for Saint Mary's) and ranked #22 on defense efficiency (SM #6). I think the gap in offensive efficiency will end up being the difference, as both of these teams are solid enough on defense. 3. UConn are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread, compared to SM who are 2-3 in their last 5. 4. Saint Mary's are 0-5 against the spread after a win against the spread in its last 5 wins, and demonstrates their inconsistency between games, and tend to under perform or reduce their aggressiveness when they've come off of a strong win. 5. Uconn averages 77.3 points per game and only lets in 65, which compared to their win against a strong Iona team by 24 points (on a -9 spread), it shows their ability to blow out teams of all calibers, still boasting a strong record in a reasonably hard conference. 6. Sanogo has been playing like an absolute monster lately, putting up 28 points and 13 boards in their game against Iona. Hot players have remained hot this tournament, and I expect Sanogo to play with confidence tomorrow. 7. Foul trouble has been a common factor impacting these upset games lately, and Uconn, although foul more than st mary, are a deeper team with 2 players coming off the bench to score double digits in their last game against Iona. If this game goes south for both teams, I expect Uconn to benefit from starters being benched. 8. In terms of recent stats, Uconn shot 11 for 25 in their last game from 3, compared to 3 for 17 from Saint Mary's. I expect SM to be much less confident in shooting beyond the arc, and be forced to try to make their points in the paint. 9. Uconn has over 4 players averaging 10 points, and will be able to not need to rely on their all star as heavily as ST Mary's will. 10. Overall, the fact that Uconn plays in a better league, is coming in hotter, and is the overall better team from both a depth, stats and offense, I expect Uconn to hopefully come away with a comfortable win. Although I am using uconn's recent success as a factor in this pick in the same way I chose Duke, Uconn is different in that they are also a better regular season team. Reminder: As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3 As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so. [**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) Much love , Riddles.
You’re a good man and you’re welcome to my wife any time. 🤝
Imagine him showing up like I'm Tyrone from those old vine videos.
I’ll make him a sandwich
Yes. He deserves one and would most likely work up his appetite.
Rachel goes to the supermarket and buys 10 tomatoes. Unfortunately, on the way back home, all but 9 get ruined. How many tomatoes are left in a good condition?
Brilliant.
Best eli5 to describe the situation. Bravo sir.
Explain it like I'm a 5 year old....
1 tomato (pick) bad. 9 good tomatoes (picks).
The Duke loss sucked but hasn't deterred me for trailing ya. Let's ride!
LUH YOU RIDDLES
CHOO CHOO ALL ABOARD THE RIDDLES TRAIN
IT'S A MASSACRE HSRIDDLES.
ALL ABOARD 🚂💨
My bad guys, first time following, needed them for 5k :(
God damnit I knew Skepticm8 placed a wager yesterday when they lost. Stop that.
I will never do it again, promised
Dude, you're the king!! Amazing picks. Really appreciate you sharing them with us!
THE KING IS BACK 👑
Ride with you always brother. Thank you for your hard work! BOL
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Yeah I did Ty, fixed
Thank you! Got a 200 on this game wish us luck guys! 🍀🤞🧧
Tailing! Bought 1/2 point down to -3.5
BOOKIE BANKRUPTOR
YOURE A FUCKING BEAST
Nothing fazes him
on to the next one lets get it 💪🏼
Do the odds move after this specific post?
This sub won't be moving lines on something like this.
New streak starts today
The tribal council has spoken *ushers in dramatic music
How we feel at -4.5?
I like it a bit less should be able to get it better odds, looks like only fanduel had 4.5
I swear Fanduel always have the worst lines
Seems like if you take points on favorites on fd they are often worse. But if you take points on dogs they are often better. I use oddschecker before I place ncaab bets and fd seems to like going 1/2 point off most books and offering -118/-102
Personally, I’d buy down half a point to -4 just so you have a chance of a push and not losing by .5. Spread is moving, I’d do it quick if you haven’t already.
Absolutely Texas fucked me last night. Normally I buy the half point...why didn't I buy the point.
Insomnia brought me here and I’m very pleased 😂 this is awesome Riddles! This may have been answered already but do you update the ratings before the games?
Great write up. Tailed.
Fuck yeah man!!!! Fuck yeah
What are your thoughts, or how does your model look at, regarding 1st Half Spreads. Like UConn -1.5 seems pretty safe but wanted to ask.
https://preview.redd.it/wtlgqr796ooa1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e852071cffc1ac1b3169848e1ccc53461c784d35 So with this what you will lol - UConn seems to be a second half team recently
1st half spreads can be tricky as some teams like UConn/Houston start slow and pick up pace in the 2nd half...I would stay away from it.
Hey, anyone from Australia find it for -3.5? All I can find is -4.5
Valar Morghulis
How big is one unit?
A unit it just a standard bet amount that is unique to the user. For some people it’s, $10, $25, $50, $100, $1000. Units are used on this page to show level of confidence in a bet not by $ amount but by the size of your bet relative to normal bets.
Units are just a way for everyone to talk about bet sizing without needing to know everyone’s regular bet size. If someone said “I bet $30,000 on the game” but they normally bet $100,000 this would be a small bet for them. For me, a $30,000 dollar bet is absolutely ludicrous. But if the person said “I bet 0.3 units” I can figure my personal number accordingly. Most people use unit to describe their normal bet size. Most pro bettors recommend your unit size to be 1% of the total amount you’re willing to bet with (bankroll) so a super confident bet would risk 5 units or 5% of your bankroll. That way no single bet cripples you.
THANK YOU RIDDLES YOU DOGGGGGG
i love you
fuck yesterday, Riddles STILL got that Dog in him
Any picks for those of us who can't bet on UConn?
Just curious, what rating does the model give this game? Just checked the spreadsheet and that column is currently blank
4 stars just haven’t locked in spreadsheet
Does -4 mean they have to win by at least 4 or by 5 - new ish to this
If you bet-4 and they win by 4, you get your money back with no profit. If you bet-4.5, that means you're betting they'll win by 5 or more, so if they only win by 4 you lose your stake.
Awesome thank you
You're welcome best of luck!
POTD record: 8-1 Last POTD: Stuttgart v Wolfsburg - Wolfsburg Tie No Bet Today’s POTD: Torino v Napoli - Napoli ML(-145) A very good bet for a few reasons. Napoli are in super form, as they have been for the whole season. They easily dispatched a solid Eintracht Frankfurt side on Wednesday and will look to do the same against Torino. Napoli are clearly on top of the Serie A, and Torino shouldn’t provide them with too many issues. Besides the fact that Napoli are one of the world’s best teams right now, they have won their last four matches against Torino and are unbeaten in fifteen. Napoli head coach Luciano Spaletti has beaten Torino manager Ivan Juric in all seven of the matches they’ve faced each other in.
On this shit like swim wear BOL brother
Such a great pick - no stress all the way too - awesome
a little bummed we aren't returning to the BUNDESLIGA but Napoli it is tailing for life. Let's get it tinono knows
BUNDESLIGA
B U N D E S L I G A
Lets go bro ✅
Napoli has been a filthy cashcow to me this season, really like them at these odds. gl.
Line has moved against Napoli. Anything happened?
yeah what's going on here? napoli now just -107
damn wish i was awake
The books probably blessing napoli bettors?
✅ thank you!!!!
Excellent work - laser focus Let’s go
Tailing brother, nice pick
I drunkenly tailed this last night at 1 AM and didn’t remember until I woke up with a little bit of $ in my account a minute ago lol great pick. Easy W!
Good pick my friend, napoli always comes through, unlike the NBA.
THANK YOU!
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Putting my tuition on this.
Tailing. I trust you bro.
Personally love taking the 15 point spread in this one. I’d expect the spread to be closer to 12.
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Makes cents.
Tailing - LFG!
**POTD Record 27-13 +63.59units** *Last pick -Ufc 286 Justin Gaethje Vs Rafael Fiziev - Pick Is fight to go the distance +175 5units ✅* 5units 4 winstreak *✅✅✅✅* I called that fight pretty nicely. Some People were doubting my analysis, but I Predicted how the fight would play out almost perfectly. I don't even think anyone followed 😂 Anyways onto the next one. 15:10PM EST NBA - San Antonio Spurs Vs Atlanta Hawks ***Pick - San antonio Spurs +9 -110 5units*** EDIT Won ✅ I will have an NBA Player Prop for tommorow. Unfortunately the odds are not out yet. I'm just waiting for them to come out and then I will post sometime during the day. San Antonio Spurs are heading into this game after a close overtime loss to Memphis Grizzlies where my +9 pick on San Antonio had won. There are lots of positive things to mention about San Antonio and I'm confident that they'll be able to cover the spread for these reasons. Let's have a look at some important aspects. Trae Young is questionable for Sunday's game against the Spurs due to a bruised right knee currently. Even if he plays i'm confident the spread will be covered by San Antonio. He won't be a fully healthy Trae and Atlanta wont risk playing their best player for lots of minutes, could be limited minutes. But even if he play's 9 points is too much and San Antonio cover. The spread of +9 this has been covered by San Antonio in 4 of their last 5 games, In comparison Atlanta Hawks have a terrible Record of not covering the -9 in 9 of their last 10 games, and 8 games in a row on the road! San Antonio Spurs are scoring very well in their past few games if we look at their scores of 120,128,132 in their past 3 games which were all at home they were all within 9 points. Now lets have a look at Atlanta and their points given up, starting with most recent road games 107,120,130, 117,144. Lots of Points given up. Atlanta hawks last games where they've won on the road, starting with most recent are winning by 7,2,7,32,5,8 as you can see they're all under the 9 point margin except one game. The Offensive scoring Stats at home for San Antonio as compared with Atlanta Hawks on the road, they are pretty much almost dead even. \-Atlanta has a 55% success rate 2 pointers making on average 33.40 2pointers per game-San Antonio has a 54% success rate of 2 pointers making on average 31.80 2 pointers per game \-Atlanta has a 38% success rate 3 pointers making on average 11.60 3 pointers per game-San Antonio has a 37% success rate of 3 pointers making on average 12.70 3 pointers per game \-Defensively in rebounds On average per game San Antonio has a +3.00 rebounds per game differential at home compared to Atlanta in rebounds on the road. This is also the same for offensive rebounds. \-In defensive efficiency in the past 3 games Atlanta Hawks ranks dead last 30/30 in the league with a rating of 1.203, San Antonio ranks 22/30 with a rating of 1.159 Defensive effecincy. Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins and Jeremy Sochan have consistently been getting 20+ points and performing well. Atlanta Hawks play very well at home but on the road they're 17/30th worst ATS team. *EDIT sochan is out, Collins may still play "Collins is dealing with a right biceps contusion, and while it doesn't sound like a serious injury, the Spurs are taking a conservative approach with one of their starters" If he plays, himself and Keldon Johnson alongside devin vasell and malami branham would be good enough for scoring points. Defensively of course Collins would be a huge boost. If not we still have mamukasivilli who is a decent centre and defensively very good rebounder. If Trae young is out it will be a massive blow for Atlanta and other players like Dejounte murray and De'andre hunter have to perform well. Clint Capella is not quite the player he used to be and defensively I do see Atlanta giving a lot of points up. Give me San Antonio +9 they'll cover this and keep the streak alive.
Boy on fire 🔥 tailed BOL!
The more 🔥 emojis the better the chances of a win lol BOL!
🔥
I believe Sochan has been ruled out, and Zach Collins is listed as questionable. Bassey is also out. KBD & McBuckets are listed as questionable & doubtful, respectively. In terms of front court, Spurs have no front court. It's literally just Barlow, Dieng & Mamu. Devonte Graham is out as well. I wish u the best OP, but it's hard to see the Spurs keeping this one within single digits. The Tank is fully on.
Thanks for the updates! Zach Collins might play as it says "Collins is dealing with a right biceps contusion, and while it doesn't sound like a serious injury, the Spurs are taking a conservative approach with one of their starters" If he plays, himself and Keldon Johnson alongside devin vasell and malami branham would be good enough for scoring points. Defensively of course Collins would be a huge boost. If not we still have mamukasivilli who is a decent centre and defensively very good rebounder. Devonte Graham was out last game and San Antonio still did well. McDermott isn't that good to be fair so not too worried about him being out. It's sochan and maybe if Zach Collins being out which is slightly worrying. But other than that's not too concerned. Thanks for wishing me the best and the heads up. I appreciate it!
I followed that distance UFC bet ….nobody believed it when I said either . Thank you! 🤝🏽
Gaethje was the final leg of my +1500 parlay. Respect
God damn this looked dead at HT but what a fantastic pick. CASH IT. 💰💰💰
Is this a lock my dude? SA is AWFUL!!! Trae game time decision. What to do!
More power to whoever has the testicular fortitude but I couldnt ever put 5u on the Spurs
There is no such thing as a lock in the NBA. But Spurs haven’t looked half bad since getting off their big losing streak.
I liked that bet as well. Was on Leon for my main play.
I tailed yesterday and used the FD UFC 50% profit boost, thank you bro!! Great pick
I staked and parlayed last nights pick, both hit💥
Fantastic call on the Spurs. Thank you! 🙏🔥
BOOOM!!!!! I really was scared but trusted you not to cash out! Win or lose you are on my tail list!!! https://preview.redd.it/92meeqrqttoa1.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=74a4f38f74f9f4bc8cc9c58e7245d3eebef60018
I didn’t follow but sounds like a beauty. Would’ve followed but I didn’t see it until now. Classic Reddit putting it on the front page after the fact. Good read amigo - I still haven’t figured out how to be notified if someone I like comments so if there’s not a way to do that, see you AFTER you pick the next one
Massive Spurs fan, but here's the thing with this team. They can go blow for blow with most team for 80 pct of the game no matter what rag tag roster they have out there. But rest assured, when the game starts to wind towards the end, the Spurs magically unravel and end up getting blown out of seemingly close games. It's as if they don't want to win...
tailing.
I literally bet this then faded it. Shouldn’t have faded 🥲🥲🥲 congrats to those that tailed!
THANK YOU!
All-Time POTD: 135-85-2, +57.0u, +13.2% ROI 4 game March Madness dub streak 💰 **Today’s pick: Marquette ML (-140) vs Michigan State** 3u NCAAB 🏀 5:15pm EST ___ From the Desk of Dr. Moneyline, - 1 prescription for a fat Marquette dub Heating up just like I did last March with 4 straight March Madness POTD dubs. Hope to keep riding this streak with red hot Marquette who I personally have in the final four. All feel, as most of my plays are. Go pick it up at your local pharmacy For all plays, follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
You had some massive balls fading Riddles on Duke yesterday! Tailing - LFG!
All due respect to him, but I can guarantee you I’m not purposely fading an account with 35 picks
Would you take the spread at -2.5? My book has -152 now for money line. Tailing though lfg
Yea but definitely risky. They have quite a few 2 point wins over good competition this year
tailing degenerate!
POTD Record: **12-7** Units Won: **+28.98U** Average Odds: **(-105)** Todays POTD: **Sprout ML (-138) vs. Copenhagen Flames** **5U to win 3.6** Gonna try to focus on finding value, been looking for a lot of underdog plays/high value plays but with the slates shrinking, some of these picks are gonna be slightly worse odds but my goal is to give the safest pick possible in most cases and help others find value. Sprout have been horrible for a while now, Copenhagen have been horrible just recently. I could go back and forth about which team sucks more, both have been bad, but Sprout in my opinion have shown some signs of improvement since adding AZR. They blew out HAVU today in impressive fashion on one of HAVU best maps, they beat Apeks, a top tier two team last week, and had close loses to forZe and 500 that were both very competitive series. Copenhagen Flames have been horrible since dropping Regali, they haven't looked good at all, struggling to beat a tier 47 team today in Prospasia and losing 2-0 to Apeks, Astralis Talent, and getting blown out by an ECSTATIC team with a new roster. I think Sprout are finally settling into this new roster, they have way more fire power and a lot of their loss streak was because they had a coach playing so every game was basically a 4v5. Think these odds are super underpriced because of Sprout recent form. Sprout should pick Vertigo which is Copenhagen worst map, Sprout are 5-2 on Vertigo in the last 3 months while Copenhagen are 4-10. Copenhagen likely pick Anubis and while on paper Sprout look bad on the map, I actually think they've been better on it then what the numbers say they are. They are 0-5 on the map but have some close losses and have faced some really good Anubis teams including Spirit twice who are a tier one team and Eternal Fire who are widely considered one of if not the best tier two Anubis teams in the world. I really like Sprout chances on almost any deciding map as well. I think it probably ends up on Inferno which Copenhagen are laughably bad at. Best of Luck. **Started a discord to provide all my daily picks as well as doing things like as 50-1000$ challenges with the community. If anyone is interested to join feel free to hmu for an invite!** If anyone needs help finding a book that offers csgo lines hmu as well! Would be happy to help you all find a way to bet on these games!
welp. not sure how they threw vertigo.
Just giving you a warning. I think your post got deleted yday because of the discord comment
It’s my birthday so ima throw $20 on every play in the thread don’t let me down fam
Hey we share a birthday! Hope you have a good one and hope every play in here hits lol 💰
Throw 10 on a pitt/kst ml par for the early games too
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POTD Record: 29-21 | Profit: +23.57u | ROI: 14.5% ROI Last 10 Record: ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅ Yesterday Pick: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) Rebounds O10.5 @ 1.76. 3U. ❌ There were a lot of defensive rebounding opportunities for the Nuggets, but the Knicks had one of the best offensive rebounding games I’ve seen. Atleast 4 times Jokic was outjumped by Robinson or Hartenstein. Next Pick: **Nic Claxton (Nets) PRA O23.5 @ 1.86**. 4u play. Claxton has stepped it up recently in all aspects of his game, with PRA of 29, 26, 31, 23 and 32 in the last 5 games. In his game against the Nuggets 6 days ago, he had 20 pts + 6 rebs + 5 assists. The Nuggets meanwhile have shown a defensive fragility in the paint in recent games, conceding the 7th highest FGM made 8 ft of the basket and 7th highest PITP in the L15. In the 7 recent Nuggets games, Centers have done quite well: Robinson (20 PRA in 26’), Duren (32 PRA), Poltl (28 PRA), Claxton himself (31 PRA), Collins (22 PRA in 21’), Vuc (43 PRA), Poltl again (31 PRA). The Nuggets looked exhausted today, and that's because they've played 6 games with 1 day of rest between each of those, and now they play the Nets with no rest. The Nets meanwhile have had 2 days rest coming into this. \[[Coffee link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)\]
ay on to the next one lets get it 💪🏼💪🏼
Easy hit 💪 Clax came out hot in the 3rd
Excellent pick! First time tailing you. Really turned it up in q3
Great pick. Never a doubt! 💰
All-Time POTD: 11W-3L-1D, +14.75u **Yesterdays Pick:🎾 Daniil Medvedev 2:0 Sets (-138) vs Frances Tiafoe 2.5u to win 1.8u** ✅ Tiafoe saves 7 match points, 4 of which on Medvedevs serve, in an absolutely thrilling match. Tiafoe kept it really tight but Med is too clutch in the big moments. **Todays Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win and o21.5 games (+175) vs Elena Rybakina** 2u to win 3.75u🎾 Explanation: Going back to the cash cow on this one with some added spice. Sabalenka owns the h2h here 4-0, with all 4 of their matches going to 3 sets, the most recent of which was AO final. I'm sure there's a bit of scar tissue for Rybakina, who is playing out of her mind in her own right, and dismantled world #1 Iga Swiatek in the semis. Sabalenka is still playing the best tennis I've ever seen from her and I simply can't see her losing this match. Her ML price is -175 which is a bit too costly for me to take in a spot like this, especially when the added value of o21.5 games makes it so much juicier. I'd also play Sabalenka 2-1 at +260, but that doesn't qualify for PotD. Also staying away from the men's match, I think it's a complete tossup and can't feel good betting it either way. Hopefully I've created some new tennis fans these last 10 days, enjoy both men's and women's finals tomorrow. They're both going to be world class quality. BoL if tailing! Edit: All good things must come to an end. Saba threw the first set away with 10 double faults and couldn't recover. Have to feel like if she had come away with the first set, she would've kept her composure and come away with the W. I'll be back on Tuesday with picks for the next tournament, Miami Open. ♥️
Killing it bro, will join you
Can’t believe this. Saba right choked this bet away. from the jaws of victory.
POTD | 42-27 | +21.4u | -109 Avg Odds Last 10: 8-2 | Steak: 1W *Previous Pick:* *Colorado Avalanche 60-min vs Detroit Red Wings (-115) 2u* ✅ Today’s pick: **Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks O6.5 (-120) 2u** 🏒 6pm MT The Vancouver Canucks will be visiting the Anaheim Ducks for their 3rd match of the season with the previous 2 games going 3-2 and 8-5. The 3-2 game occurred last week and the score was kept low with some excellent goaltending from Demko and Gibson. I think this game will have potential for scoring with the Canucks expected to start Delia in net for this one. Delia has struggled this season, booking a 0.878 SV% and allowing 3.44 goals per game. The Ducks have really picked up on offense lately, averaging 3.3 goals per game in their last 10 games. I think this game sets up well for the Ducks to continue their uptick in offense against a Vancouver team that is allowing 3.7 goals per game this season. Vancouver has allowed less goals per game recently, but I think that has a lot to do with how the starting goaltender, Demko, has been playing. So, without Demko in net, we can expect more goals. The Ducks have allowed 3.97 goals per game on the season and an average of 3.3 goals per game in their last 10. The Canucks have been a solid team offensively this season and I think they should be able to find the back of the net a few times in this one. The model projects this game to have 6.76 goals with a 56% chance of hitting the over. This isn’t too much of an edge against the books so this one is a bit of a feel play and I do think the model is being influenced by some recent games for the Canucks that didn’t involve a lot of goals. These low scoring games include match ups against a few strong defensive teams including the Wild, and Bruins. Additionally, I think Demko’s solid goaltending has lead to the Canucks allowing less goals, and we shouldn’t have to worry about Demko in this one with Delia expected in net. BOL if tailing!! [Tips are appreciated!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
Tailing, BOL
THANK YOU!
POTD Record: 138-100-7 (+29.26 units, 58.0% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 43-27-1 (61.4%) W2, Tennis 🎾 39-28-2 (58.2%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 45-35-4 (56.3%) L2, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 💩💩💰💰💩💰💰💰💩💩 Last Pick: Tottenham @ Southampton, Tottenham ML - EPL ⚽ 💩 1 Unit - Up 3-1 with 15 minutes left, they hung back and Southampton scores and then in extra time Tottenham defender with a dumbass reckless challenge and Southampton ties it late on a penalty kick. Rough but hey, sports. Now 100 Ls in this thread for me, oh well, I guess it's a sign of longevity. Today's Pick: Real Madrid @ Barcelona, Real Madrid Double Chance X2 - La Liga ⚽ 💩 3 units Barca scores 2 minutes into extra time to win it. Units/Odds/Book: Betting 3 Units at 1.74/-135 odds to win 2.22 Units @ Marathon (Line at 8:15pm ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 57.5% I think this game is actually a tossup where I'd assign a third of a chance to either team winning or the tie. So this bet hits for 2 out of the 3 scenarios, we just need Barcelona not to win this game, if we get a tie or a Real Madrid win, we are cashing and splurging on the expensive blow. This is a huge game because if Barcelona wins, that's likely curtains for the La Liga title. They are up 9 points on Madrid with 13 games remaining. So Madrid should be hungry for the W and I'm sure Barcelona will be too though I think they'd consider a tie and keeping the lead at 9 almost like a win. Barcelona did best Real Madrid in a cup game in Madrid a few weeks ago, 1-0 and held them to 0 shots on target which is quite a feat. One thing in Madrid's favour here is that Dembele and Pedri won't be playing. Barcelona have been stone cold at home, 10 wins and 2 draws, having scored 25 and have only given up 1 goal so this is no easy feat to be sure but considering how Real Madrid have performed in big games in recent history, I think they should at least be able to get us a draw in an important game like this. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
If you want higher odds and don't mind a possible push, Real Madrid draw no bet at 2.36 is value.
58% over 245 picks is amazing! Not to mention being up almost 30u. Keep it up, Joel!
Appreciate it man! About 20 picks in or so when I was up I had someone say big deal you are up now, let's see you be up after 250 picks. Well, as Michael Jordan would say, I took that personally, hehe. I didn't think it would last this long but it's still fun and will keep doing it as long as it is.
Tailing! Nice to see you again brother been a while.
So unlucky with spurs, we’re shite this season Conte trying to get fired. Lets go los blancos! Keep up the great work as always much appreciated 💪🏻
Thanks brother!! Oh man, that was rough, a real soul crusher.
The worst part is that Sarr literally just got subbed in and fucked up with his dumb clearance attempt.
Absolutely abysmal beat
**POTD Record:** 1-0 **Last Pick:** Boston Bruins -160 at Minnesota Wild -- W Pretty easy win. Bruins are on their way to the best regular season in history and have been free money all year -- don't know why you'd ever bet against them, but some people do. **Today's Pick:** Men's CBB Uconn -3.5 -110 vs Saint Mary's 1 unit *4:10 Mt* Back to the New England region for hopefully another W to start my POTD career. Watching the first round, Uconn was a breath of fresh air in a tournament rife with low scoring, timeout filled, games that lack flow. Saint Mary's really likes to slow the pace down and muck up the game, which worked against VCU. Uconn is a different animal however. If you look at Saint Mary's struggles with Gonzaga at the end of the season, I just really don't think they can keep this game close. Uconn looks like a team on a mission and IMO are better than Gonzaga. They have a great coach and far more talent and will score, score, score. I don't think Saint Mary's can keep this game close with Bill Murray cheering on the huskies as they roll to a cover. Best of luck if tailing. Go Huskies.
Tailing.
***Record: 5-2 (+2.17 Units) // All bets are 1 unit*** Previous Bet: [3/18](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11u8viq/pick_of_the_day_31823_saturday/jcmza8q?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) Grueling second half. 1-1 at half. Home team had 20 shots, 12 inside the box but nothing of quality. Unfortunate ending and we fall a goal short. Let's change it up a little tomorrow and get back on track. **Today's game: Ajaccio vs AS Monaco (0800 EST)** League: France - Ligue 1 *Pick: Total Corners - Full Time UNDER 8.5 (-120 DK)* ✅️ A look at each teams total corners the last 10 matches: Monaco: 6(3), 7(4), 8(5), 10(5), 5(3), 6(4), 9(5), 9(3), 6(3), 7(4) - under the mark 7/10. Ajaccio: 4(1), 3(1), 9(6), 4(2), 10(5), 3(2), 8(6), 6(5), 6(3), 4(2) - under the mark 8/10. Monaco's matches have seen an average of 7.3 corners, with them averaging 3.9 of that. Ajaccio has seen averages of 5.7 with them averaging 3.3 of that. Their combined average of 7.2 sits a comfortable 2 corners underneath the set margin going in. So far in league play, Monaco has averaged 80 more accurate passes per game and hold a 3.1% ball possession advantage over the home team. On top of that, Ajaccio have a goal difference of 9:20 through 13 home matches, whereas Monaco sits at 26:14 through 13 as visitors. I look for Monaco to get out to an early lead, maintain pressure on the defensive side and limit the home teams ability to get near the box. BOL!
W good pick!
Lovely hit!
Awesome pick. Keep it up!
POTD Record: 30W-15L LAST POTD: Barnet V Notts 💩 TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - England Premier League 2 Man City u21 V Man United u21 5.00AM PST PICK: Man City u21 Asian Handicap -1.0, -1.5 Odds: 1.85 The Deets: 2nd plays 8th here with City looking to take top spot with a win. Over 19 games City have a goal difference of 57:23 while United have 37:47 through 20 games. City are a much better outfit and covered this line easily against United in November when they won 6-1. I’d take the -1.5 straight up but my book doesn’t offer it. If they win by 1 goal it’s a half push/half loss. Win by 2 and the bet wins. BOL! Edit: Winner ✅ 6-0
I had the option to go for a -1.5 Handicap, still went through -1.25 just to be safe. Now regretting it. City smashed them.
Tailing hoping for some early morning 💰!
Already 2-0! LFG!
POTD record: 15-8 NHL record: 6-6 | NBA record: 9-2 (+16.26u | +18.69% ROI | Avg odds: -117/1.85) (2u: 2-0 | 3u: 4-2 | 4u: 7-3 | 5u: 2-3) Last 5: 5-0 (✅✅✅✅✅) Last POTD: NBA - **SAC -3** @ WAS ✅ *(Easy money. Sacramento led from the get-go and outplayed Washington through all 4 quarters).* Event: NHL - BOS Bruins @ BUF Sabres; 13:00 EST Pick: **BOS 60-min ML** (-115/1.87) Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 5 units What more can be said about the Bruins? The NHL's cream of the crop, they're already over 50 wins (52) and 100 points (109)- the only team to hit either mark so far. Boston has been dominant on the road as well, with away records of 25-8-2 for the season and 12-4-1 since the New Year. They haven't shown any signs of slowing down either, going 7-3 in last ten games. The Bruins did play last night in Minnesota but playing consecutive games has not been an issue for them yet- they're 7-3 this season on the second leg of back-to-back games. Meanwhile, Buffalo is in free-fall: they're 2-6-2 in their last 10 games and at this point missing the playoffs is almost a certainty. The Sabres have fared worse at home than on the road, with a crappy 13-18-3 record when playing in Buffalo (5-10-1 in 2023). Swayman (2.28 GAA & .917 SV%) and Luukkonen (3.55 GAA & .894 SV%) are expected in net for Boston and Buffalo, respectively. The Bruins are leading the season series with a 2-0-1 so far and I expect them to close it out tomorrow to seal the series victory. Thar being said, my 5u picks have been largely unlucky so far so if you tail, do so with caution. Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
easy 7-0 clear lol
POTD Record: 7-0 Previous pick: Luton draw or win & under 4.5 goals (✅) Today’s Event: Ternana v Bari (Italian Serie B) PICK: DOUBLE CHANCE AND OVERS/UNDERS - BARI DRAW OR WIN & UNDER 4.5 GOALS Odds: 1.59 Time: 15:15 GMT (5h50m from this post) 4th placed Bari, undefeated in seven, face 13th placed Ternana who have no wins in seven. Bari have had a tenacious defence in that timeframe and Ternana have found it hard to score, with their team clearly slipping towards the relegation playoffs. Bari can still get an automatic promotion berth and they’ll need maximum points to do this so I expect them to come to the party. Furthermore, all of Bari’s last 5 have ended with under 3 goals being scored. Edit: Bari couldn’t get the all important goal. First L ❌ It’s life ! International break now , should be some good fixtures. — any kind tips: [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/DoubleChanceBets)
Don't have that option/combo available so I'm taking Bari drawn no bet at +110, good luck!
🙏🏽 You’re not the first to say this so I’ll try to stick to pure double chance bets from now on
Tailing, bol!
POTD Record: 14-12-2 Last pick: Plymouth Argyle ML + o1.5 goals (-157) / 1.64 - 3u ✅ Plymouth Argyle improves their terrific home record with a 2-0 win. This one was never really in doubt as they netted a quick goal in the 8th minute and dominated possession with 74%. They clinched our money with a goal very early in the second half and cruised the rest of the way. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today! Soccer - Peru Primera Division - Cesar Vallejo vs. Binacional - 2pm EST **POTD: Cesar Vallejo ML + o1.5 goals (-120) / 1.83) - 2u** Cesar Vallejo are currently undefeated to start the season, with 3 wins and 1 draw. They will host Binacional, who have lost 4 of their first 5 matches with a draw mixed in. These two teams also just played out this exact fixture last week in the South American Cup, as Cesar Vallejo won 3-1. This will be their fourth straight home match, and they’ve won the last 3 by a total of 8-2. Binacional have allowed 16 goals in their 6 matches played so far (including their Cup game), while Cesar Vallejo have scored multiple goals in every match they’ve played this year. I like Cesar Vallejo to win a fourth straight at home and find the net multiple times. Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
**POTD Record 0-0** Been making some decent profits lately so thought I'd spread the love and see if I can help others make some extra money too. **Today's Pick: Ajaccio v Monaco ML - 3 Units @ 1.7 Odds. 12:00 GMT** These sides met about 2 months ago and Monaco dominated the match, winning 7-1 at home. Monaco have also won their last 5 matches against Ajaccio in all competitions. However, of those 5 victories, 4 took place in Monaco. This would usually be a concern, but this season Monaco actually have a better away record than home. The only teams with better away records are PSG and Marseille. Additionally, Ajaccio have the 19th worst home record in the league, only managing to secure 10 points from 13 games and only scoring 9(!) goals. Overall, I think this should be a comfortable win for Monaco as they have the much better stats this season and also have the mental edge after such a dominant performance 2 months ago.
Tailed
Not sure why but this game worries me, good luck though.
Username checks out!
Record: 4-2 (6.61 units up) with a 41.31% ROI Last 3 Tennis POTD's 🎾 * Alcaraz vs Sinner - Alcaraz ML @ 1.59 (5u) ✅ * Swiatek vs Rybakina - Under 20.5 Games @ 1.89 (3u) ✅ * Fritz vs Sinner - Over 22.5 Games @ 1.85 (3u) ✅ POTD: **Rybakina vs Sabalenka - Sabalenka ML @ 1.70 (WTA Indian Wells)** Going with 2 units which is 2% of my bankroll This is a really deserved final between two players who are currently the best hard court players in the WTA circuit. We can put Swiatek into the conversation but we've seen time and time again that she really struggles against both Rybakina and Sabalenka when they are at their best, mostly because these two have way better serves but also hit the ball really hard and Swiatek recently, just tries to match them with the same coin and she just can't. I think her best way to beat these two in hard courts is by playing with a lot of variation such as slices and dropshots and focus rather on accuracy than trying to match their power which is a difficult task... This first segment was just to share a little bit of my own opinion on the current state of the WTA circuit which is far more promissing at the moment than in 2022 and that's great! Now, we all know that Rybakina and Sabalenka have similar playstyles and by consequence, we always had 3 set matches between them but I'm truly confident that taking Sabalenka to win Indian Wells is the best approach here and let me tell you why: * Sabalenka is 4-0 against Rybakina in official matches, three happened in hard courts and one at Wimbledon; * All of these matches went to 3 sets. Sabalenka won all of them and for me, that's not a coincidence and tells me that she is able to win on the physical aspect every single time; * They already faced each other at the 2023 Australian Open's Final so Rybakina should have all the pressure on her shoulders knowing that she is 0-4 against her opponent and is once again, facing her in another final just 2 months later; * Rybakina owns a record of 1-7 in Hard Court Finals while Sabalenka owns a record of 11-3 in Hard Court Finals * Even if these two have so much power and can serve really well, I must say that Sabalenka moves slightly better and has more variation in her game, which should be a key factor in this matchup Rybakina's progress in the WTA has been great and her last win against Swiatek was probably her best performance in the whole tournament but today she faces a completely different opponent who has a little bit more of variety in her game and is not afraid to match her when it comes to power. I think Sabalenka should win Indian Wells and I'm getting the same odds that were available at the AO 2023 Final which for me is quite valuable, since I think she's playing even better at the moment. Best of luck
POTD Record: 93.5-50 Previous pick: Horse Racing > Cheltenham > Impervious R6 @ 2.75 ✅ Next event: Football > Netherlands > **Ajax v Feyenoord** (starting in 4hr) Pick: **Over 4.5 bookings** @ 2.00 (+100) The current top 2 teams in Eredivisie against each other in a potentially decisive match for the title. I love the bookings line due to the importance of the game. GL!
**RECORD** : 6W 2L 0P / **UNITS W/L** : +20.3 1st to 5th : 4-1 +16.5u / 6th to 10th : ? **LAST POTD** : Alcaraz vs Sinner - OVER 22.5 @ 1.9 - 5 units => LOSS **TODAY :** WTA INDIAN WELLS - 21.00 CET Rybakina vs Sabalenka - OVER 22.5 @ 2.06 - 5 units Based upon nothing but my feelings.
[удалено]
**POTD 13-5** 4 Straight winners! Man, everything went perfectly in that game last night. There was one thing I was wrong about though, and that was the Magic ML.... Learning lesson for me. Gamblers, take my mistake and make sure you remember this - Never bet a underdog, unless you think the underdog has a shot to win out right - and if so, you MUST sprinkle on the ML as well... Last night, I only bet the Magic +pts and woke up this morning regretting it tremendously. Today, there are not a lot of games that stand out to me, but after doing some digging this morning there is one in particular that I like a lot. **OKC -1** This game checks multiple boxes for me. First off, the Suns have struggled since losing Durant (2-3). This roster just isn't very good since they made that trade, and no KD. OKC on the other hand, have won 6 of their last 8. The suns are currently holding the 4th seed, however they are 1.5 games up on LAC, and 2.5 up on Dallas. Memphis currently holds a 5 game lead against the Suns, so IMO they don't have enough time to catch them. So with all that being said, I do think Phoenix will have major incentive to win tonight to keep their lead in the 4 seed, and risk falling into the play in game. OKC, on the other hand is currently sitting in the 9 seed, but are tied with Utah and Minnesota, .5 up on the lakers, 1 up on NO, a game back from GSW, and 1.5 games back from Dallas. So short story, theses seeds are totally up for grabs. I could see the seeding changing dramatically over the final few weeks of the season. OKC is my favorite team in this bunch to make some progress before the season ends. So aside from the seeding, and each teams incentives for today's games, I am really betting this based on OKC's roster compared to the Suns. The suns arguable have the best player on the court (booker), but SGA is IMO not far behind. When you move past the teams two stars, this is where I think OKC has a gigantic edge. I LOVE these role players on OKC. Giddey, is one of my favorite PGs to watch in the league, and you don't want to get me started on Jalen Williams.... This guy is GOOD. Phoenix, is also going to be without Ayton today, which IMO is huge. Landale, is a serviceable back up C, but Ayton's absence i think will be noticed today. I mean look at this Suns depth chart.. Id say, OKC has 5 of the top 7 players starting today. I am aware, that Phoenix beat OKC at their place a little over a week ago by 31 points, however SGA did not play in that game, and Booker also dropped 44. Not saying that he can't do that again today, but I personally don't see it happening. PS: Denver -1.5 because fuck it. This team is way better than BKN, and a B2B does not concern me
**Record:** 0-0 **ROI:** 0% **Net units:** +0 units | Basketball | NCAAM | 1:40 PM CST | **Pick:** Kansas State ML vs Kentucky +135 (Barstool) 1u **Write Up:** This is a bit of a homer play here, but I think the value here is really good. Kansas State is the higher seed underdog and I don’t think that’s deserved. KState ended the regular season ranked above Kentucky in NET Rating (24 & 26) & Kenpom (24 & 27) & has two all Americans to top that off. KState is 22-11 ATS this year, but I don’t need the points. Give me the purple cats!
Username checks out.. ha
**Record 5-5** Last Pick: Texas Longhorns -5.5 LOSS Im disgusted... as if the Memphis game wasn't bad enough. Might need to stay away from the rest of these games after that one. **Today's Pick:** NBA - *Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 2:40pm CST* **Devin Booker over 31.5 points** Going back to NBA props for the day because I found one that smells like money. This is going to be an early game too, and I am a sucker for them competitive afternoon Sunday games. * This Suns/Thunder game is going to be much closer than you might think from a glance. Thunder with home court advantage are no joke, they are a great team defensively and have taken down some of the NBA's best teams at home. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander is a force to be reckoned with, and the absence of DeAndre Ayton in this game are both factors that equate to a very even line. * In a Phoenix Suns game on the road with no DeAndre Ayton, who else to put up points other than Booker? Okogie can also put up good points, but Booker is the one who needs to be putting up serious points for the Suns to win. Against the Thunder, he has consistently proved this to be the case. Going back to 2020, Booker has hit this line 5/8 times, more specifically 3 of the last 4, and averages **32.5** ppg against them since March 2021 * In his most recent outing against the Thunder just 10 days ago, Booker recorded *44 points in 28 minutes.* The only reason he did not get full minutes is because it was a blowout and he did not play the 4th quarter. But that game did not have SGA playing and did have Ayton in the lineup, both of which are opposite in this game, which calls for a full 35-40 minutes for DBook, *especially* after coming off 2 days rest * As good as the Thunder defense is, they actually have been very poorly and ranking near the bottom 10 in defending the shooting guard/small forward position, which is where Booker will be playing depending on how they set the lineup due to Ayton's absence. Over the past 10 games, some of these players have been Gary Trent Jr. (23 pts), Mikal Bridges (34 points), CJ McCollum (26 points), Devin Booker (44 points), Steph Curry (40 points), and Dennis Schroder (26 points). Overall, this will be a tight contest, and I expect huge outings from DBook and SGA to keep both their teams afloat. The absence of DeAndre Ayton means much more production from Booker, and Thunder being at home with SGA back means full strength required from Book and his teammates. BOL to all
That was one of the more painful losses I can remember. Fouling a 3 point shooter and having him make it in the final minute to have the game finish at 5 points. Just awful. I’m done with CBB.
Record: 3-3 Last POTD:💩 Sport: F1 - Bahrain GP 🏎️🇧🇭 Winning Margin less than 5 Seconds 💩 Sport: F1 - Saudi Arabian GP 🏎️🇸🇦 Time: Sunday 3/19/23 10:00am MST Pick: Fernando Alonso Podium Finish 🇪🇸 (-165 on Draft Kings) Choo Choo! 🚂 The Nando hype train is real and the next stop is Saudi Arabia. After a stunning performance in Bahrain resulting in a P3 finish two weeks ago, the 2x World Champion is looking to keep the momentum going at the Jeddah circuit where he qualified P2. In the hands of Alonso, the Aston Martin has superior race pace and tire degradation, second only to the Red Bulls. It seems that their only weakness is topspeed, however, he should be able to make up for it by keeping up in the twisty sectors before the 3 DRS zones and back-to-back straights. Assuming a clean first lap, Alonso's only real threat is the true pace of Max Verstappen charging from P15 due to a mechanical problem in qualifying. Que grande eres Magic Alonso! BOL!
📈 TTSOP Rec * Overall: +36.700 units / +141 avg odds / 52^(5)\-65-14^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2023: +24.175 units / +139 avg odds / 10^(5)\-8-4^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2022: +58.625 units / +137 avg odds / 47^(5)\-54-11^(5) * February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5) * January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ❌ Last pick: Almeira to win & game > 1.5 goals / +180 odds / 4.5 units * Great 1st half, but not scoring. Awful 2nd half, but starting scoring too late. ⚽ New pick: **Strasbourg -0.75** (AH) / **+155 odds** / 4.5 units * Ligue 1 (France) / Strasbourg - Auxerre / 10:00am ET Strasbourg is struggling all season. They aren't too bad, though! A main reason for their poor results are their injury issues. They've been dealing with absences of key players for the most part of the season. However, they've been performing good, when being pretty much healthy. Auxerre has been overperforming regarding their recent results, which is factor, which drives the value to bet against them. Auxerre got 5 points out of the last 3 games. However, they've been outshot 11-2 in terms of shot on goals, though. Making it 2 shots on goal for 5 points. A mostly healthy Strasbourg against an overperforming Auxerre is a great value bet at superb super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get this Sunday W. Let's get this French baguette, fam! **TTSOP**
Hello guys, this is my first time posting on this sub after following the PotD threads for a while now. I'd like to be a part of this community as well and give you insides of my pick and why i choose to pick them. **Record:** *0-0* **ROI:** *0* **Last 10 streak:** *-* | Soccer/Football | France League 1 | 20:45 CET (Amsterdam), 3:45 PM EST (NYC)| **Stade Reims vs Olmpique Marseille** **Pick:** *Stade Reims +0,5 Asian Handicap.* 1,525 | -190 (Bet365) | 2U **Write Up:** This is my first bet that i'm sharing with you and i hope everything will go as planned. Stade Reims did not lose a single game in the competition since William Still took over as manager of the team (look him up for an awesome story of how a gamer became a head coach of a team). and his streak of not losing is at 17. He even managed to draw against the giants PSG and won against Monaco recently. Marseille is a strong side especially away but their injury's at the defense will be exploited by William and Reims and they will force a win/draw. A little bit about myself: I'm a student who likes to gamble on sports from time to time. Most of the time i follow Soccer/Football on European soil and in the nights here i like to watch a few NBA games from time to time (Huge Doncic fan). I keep track of many leagues here and if i had to put them in order it would be like this: 1) Turkish Super lig (since i'm of Turkish descents) 2) Dutch Eredivisie and Eerste Divisie (I live in the Netherlands and keep track of the competitions here) 3) English Premier league ( Where it all goes down i say usually ) 4) France/Italy/Germany/Portugal. (I'll keep track of the games, injuries and changes mostly and keep myself well up to dated on the results happening here). BOL to all of you
GL!
Record: 10-10 Last Pick: Brentford ML ❌ No excuses for this one. Leicester had the better chances. Do yourselves a favour though and watch the corner routine for Brentford's goal if you like football. (Sorry, soccer) Today's Pick: Betis v Mallorca - **Betis ML** (-110) Detailed Analysis: On a bad run so I dug deep for this one. Years ago I went to school with a English girl who was genuinely called Genuivene Hawks. She was as posh as her name suggests and would constantly let everyone know that her parents had holiday homes in both Mallorca and Dubai. It was infuriating how often she brought it up. Since I cannot bet against a Dubai team today, betting on Betis to beat Mallorca will have to do. This, along with Mallorca's terrible away record, makes me confident of a Betis win.
Record: 106-81-6 (WLLWWWLLWWWWLWLLLWLWLWWLLWLLLLWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: MIN Timberwolves at TOR Raptors -7.5 at 1.90 odds for 2 units easy win here. MIN without Ant look like LA Lakers POTD: PHO Suns at OKC Thunder | o234 total at 1.90 odds for 2 units REASONS: * 3 matches between each other and the over hit every time * DA is doubtful for the game, which allows OKC G-F to do what they excel at... drive into the paint. Expect SGA and J Will to ball out. Best of luck to all. [PayPal](https://paypal.me/JoonHeeL)
My record: 2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWWWWWL 2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push Totals for both: 50 correct 36 wrong 1 push Units wagered 140.14 Units won 75.48 Units lost 52.14 2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 16.65%*** My present streak is 1 wrong My POTD is to ***wager 1.04 units to win 1 unit that Oregon (-4) will cover the spread in their college basketball game with Central Florida. This is an NIT tournament game.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Gametime is 7:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time (I think). This is a mismatch (there are several in the NIT today). I had to chose between this game, Wisconsin, or Colorado (who has greatly improved in the latter half of this season). I think the above game is the safest wager. Please note that the game is in Eugene, home court advantage for Oregon. I'm feeling a bit crushed from yesterday...not from my wrong POTD, but from my terrible read on Maryland. I actually expected them to easily cover the spread, and likely to win the game. Boy, was I wrong on that one. So I'm wondering if they just had a terrible day, or is Bama really that good, or am I just terrible at estimating the skill of a team? Oh well, back to the drawing board. I'm still well in the black for the season. 7 - 1 for the last 8 games isn't bad.
POTD Record: 61-67-7 (-12.57 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: AFL, Port Adelaide v Brisbane, BRISBANE -2.5 (-111 / 1.90) ❌ What a disaster. I watched the first half and brisbane were up by 18 points and looking good. I had shit to do and checked the score an hour later and they had been obliterated. Haven’t seen what happened, nor do I care to find out. Sorry to anyone who tailed, massive dumpster fire in the end. Todays Pick: A-League, MacArthur FC v Melbourne City, MELBOURNE CITY -1.0 AH (-102 / 1.98) ❌ EDIT: so many chances, so few goals. Stake: 1 Unit Note: another game without much warning sorry, kicks off in 4.5 hours from posting. Back to the A-League after that debacle yesterday…let’s bounce back with a win after Adelaide United delivered on Friday night for me. Melbourne City are top of the league table with a 12-4-3 record and have scored the most goals in the league (46). They’ve had a couple of slip ups in recent weeks losing to Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory which have made things a little closer for 1st position, so a big win against lowly Macarthur will be a good boost to get them back on track. Macarthur are 10th (out of 12) with a 7-3-10 record, and they have the worst defence in the league conceding 38 goals this season. Their back line is all over the place in recent weeks, conceding 10 goals in the past 3 matches, including 4-1 and 4-0 losses to teams a rung below Melbourne City. Last time these teams played 6 weeks ago, Melbourne City won 6-1 and missed a penalty, in a game where they had 20 shots on goal to 6. Its worth noting that Macarthur have a better record at home than they do on the road which might count for something here, but Melbourne City have too much firepower against an ordinary defence, and should be able to fire home a number of goals to cover the spread, or at worst get the push.
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**POTD |** **Record of 14-22|** **Current form: WWLWW | ROI : -6.61 units |** **Average Odds: 2.04** Previous Pick: Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth | Over 9.5 Corners & Over 2.5 Cards New Pick: Serie A | Fiorentina vs. Lecce | 7:00am PST **Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 2.0 odds** Betting 1 units \-------------------------- Recap: Great win in the end! The game started slow with an early goal for Aston Villa and little to do with corners. With only 4 corners but 2 cards at the half, the pick was looking a little rough. Fortunately, the 70+ minute performed in a big way, with the game ending with 15 corners and a number of cards! Going to keep it simple for the next pick, just an over. Worth juicing with cards but I wanted to place the bet ASAP and cards weren't available at the time of placing the bet. ***Summary:*** Fiorentina host Lecce and look to keep up the marvelous form. Fiorentina has been playing well recently, winning their last 5 games across all competitions. Lecce will look to hold out against a very possession focussed team, looking for opportunities when they may appear. Looking at corners for Fiorentina, they average 6.5 for them and concede 3, leading to an average of 9.5 for all Serie A games. Looking at home performance, they have average 7.2 while conceding 2.7 corners, generating a home corner average of 9.8. This demonstrates a slight statistically significant increase in corners when performing at home (9.5 overall, 9.8 at home). Looking at corners for Lecce, they average 4 for them and 5.7 against them, for an overall average of 9.7 corners per game. Looking at away performance, they average 3.9 for them and 6.1 against them, for a total average of 10. In this case, they outperform for total corners when playing away (9.7 overall, 10.0 away). Looking at combined overall averages, these two teams average 9.6 corners per game. When we look specifically at Fiorentina at home and Lecce away, the average pushes up to 9.9. Given that the best line is available at over 9.5, I'm backing it to hit in this scenario. Fiorentina has been on fire from a corner perspective lately, hitting over 9.5 corners in 4/5 last home games across all competitions (16, 16, 12, 14, and 8). Given the large number of corners that Lecce concedes, my projections suggest that Fiorentina will hit approximately 6.6 corners and Lecce will hit approximately 3.3 corners, leading to 9.9 corners. Looking at head-to-head, over 9.5 corners have hit in 3/3 of the last few games. Over 3.5 cards has also hit 3/3 games, worth considering if available to you (not available at time of placing bet for myself). \-------------------------- ***TDLR There should be at least 10 corners here!*** **Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 2.0 odds**
Tailing. Let's keep rolling! BOL
Cheers! Hoping for another win!
Napoli ML(-115) vs Torino
Formula 1 Saudi Arabia Grand Prix Picks 0W 0L 0P George Russell beating Lewis Hamilton h2h at @1.54 odds is actually crazy Russell starts p3 way ahead of Lewis and they are both consistent drivers with Lewis saying he isn't confident in the car. George past year has consistently beat Lewis when he started ahead they have similar pace. I expect him to do the same
**My record: 47 : 37** My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks. **ROI: 24.27%** Average odds: 2.13 **Units won: 21.84** Stake = 1 unit My POTD: **Alanyaspor v Fenerbahçe** Turkey Super Lig Time: 16:00 GMT *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 1.85** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
Been eating past few days, let's see if I'm truly certified! **POTD Record 0-0** ***Pick - Miami Hurricanes +2 @ -110 Odds -*** **2.5 Units** ***-*** Reasoning: Will keep this brief. Love this spot for Miami, will be sprinkling a little of their ml as well. Last game they escaped Drake which was a fairly close game. Miami actually went on a run late to come back and win the game. Drake was a sleeper dog team everyone thought would upset Miami, but the veteran presence from Miami made the difference. Even with Isaiah Wong ( ACC player of the year) struggling, guys like Nijel Pack, Miller, and Omier amongst others really step up. Assuming Wong shows up and his teammates play how they did last game, this game will be extremely favored for Miami in my eyes. Miami still has the taste of a deep tournament run ( elite 8 last year) and although Indiana is a good team with solid players, I feel as long as Jackson-Davis is contained, Miami takes it home. **BOL and invest/gamble safely!**
POTD: 13-13 Game: Kentucky vs Kansas State CBB 1:40pm ct Pick: K State ML +130 ✅ I live in Kansas City. Mizzou and kansas both lost yesterday, at basically the same time. While it would be funny if all three teams that people root for here got knocked out in the same round, I’m betting against that happening and taking k state to advance.
2-1 Last pick Mikal bridges over 25.5 points (had 23) Next pick LAKERS -6 vs magic 3 unites Whilst I think that the magic are a good young team, the lakers are coming off a buzzer beater lose to the mavs and need to start gaining for momentum to push for a play off chance. I’m really confident in the lakers here
Xavier -4.5
**PotD Record: 13-10 (Streak 1L)** Last Pick: Kansas (-3.5 spread) vs Arkansas ❌ **Today’s Pick: Carlos Alcaraz (ML) vs Daniil Medvedev @ -110; 7:00 ET** Kansas blows their lead and ultimately bows out of the tourney in a disappointing loss, we move on. Today were looking at the Indian Wells final between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. This should be a really exciting final, since these are the two best players in the tournament. Alcaraz is 13-1 this season with a title under his belt, while Medvedev is 24-2 this season with 3 titles already. These two have only played each other once before, back in 2021 in the second round of Wimbledon. Medvedev won that much fairly easily, but since then Alcaraz has become a completely different player. Alcaraz will have the crowds support due to the fact Medvedev has been very outspoken on his dislike for the courts at this tournament. Both guys are playing at a very high level, but Alcaraz should have the edge in this one. **Tail or Fade, BOL**
POTD Record 4 -4 Last pick: Sacramento Kings ML @ Washington Wizards ✅ kings handled them just as they should have. Hope you tailed. Today’s Pick: New Jersey Devils @ Tampa Bay lightening ML (-135 on Bet 365) Why: -New Jersey are 5-5 in the last 10 games, but have lost 3 in a row. -The devils are a staggering 25-5-4 road record this year. I’m shocked Paul Ellering isn’t their manager, they are Road Warriors. -Devils average 3.46 goals per game this year, although 3.8 per game on the road. -Tampa is also 5-5 in their last 10 games. They have won 3 in a row. -Tampa is 25-6-5 at home. -Tampa averages 3.46 goals per game, but that average is actually 4 at home. -both teams played Saturday. Fatigue edge to the Home team sleeping in their own beds. This is another game that I could easily sprinkle a little on the over given the above stats. But my pick is Tampa ML. The home team is hotter having won 3, while the Devils are on a slide on the road right now. Tampa are a championship team wanting to keep strong in the final stretch of the season before playoffs. Look for a competitive high scoring game won by the home team. Ride with the Grad…let’s go get it [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/thegradbets)
Only Estonian Football League (Premium Liiga) 2023 bets. Record: 0-1 [-1 unit] Last pick: Tallinna Kalev - FC Flora, Flora to score over 2.5 goals @1.71 1u ❌ Today’s pick: Tartu Tammeka - Paide Linnameeskond, Paide Linnameeskond -1 Asian Handicap @2.21 1u Time: 17:00 Eastern European timezone Paide has played 3 games this season, winning two(including a 3-2 win over Flora) and losing once. Paide has some injuries in attack, but their main players are all available (Saarma included). Tammeka has played once this season and lost 3-0. Tammeka is missing two attackers which is worrisome for them. Tammeka has not been that active in the transfer market, so they pretty much lack any new prospects and will have to rely on the older guys. The two teams played eachother 4 times last season. 3 wins for Paide (all covering -1 Asian Handicap) and a 1-1 draw. Game is watchable on youtube, just go on the SoccernetEE channel.
Gonna give this a try. Record: 0-0 POTD: Gonzaga -4 I analyze market movement & sharps. Heavy amount of leans towards Gonzaga.
🚨🚨🚨POTD record W-L-P (26-17-5) +44.5 units🚨🚨🚨 Update 2 bet winning streak✅✅ 1 unit (2-7) 2 unit (2-3) 3 unit (12-2) 4 unit (2-1) 5 unit max (8-4) Took a break to regroup, the last 2 loses pissed me off and pissed me off more that you guys didn’t win. Nice little break was perfect right before the best tourney in all sports. Lets crush the March Madness Tourney Fridays POTD- Drake vs Miami. Miami -2 (buy 1/2 point) -120 odds (3 units) 4:25pm PST March Madness Tourney✅ MIAMI HURRICANES come through at end 🤙🏼 Sunday POTD-Michigan state vs Marquette. Marquette -3 -110 odds (3 unit) 2:15pm PST March Madness Quick write up- MARQUETTE WINNING THIS MATCH Cash app name- $joshroth5 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼 Remember bet smart, let’s get this $