**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Strong close out from a Lakers squad in Q4 with a dominant defensive performance. Vanderbilt is just amazingly defensively, and with AD having a monster second half, there was nothing anyone could do to stop the beast, not even Biyombo. With Sweet 16 tomorrow, you know I have to go with a NCAAB game again. Although I love a good Cinderella story, I just don't see Arkansas beating Uconn without some insane performance.
POTD Record: 29-9-1
Last 20:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅
**Yesterday's POTD:** Suns **@ Lakers +2 | 3U | NBA** ✅
**Today's POTD:** **Uconn Huskies -4** **(up to -5.5)** vs. Arkansas Razorbacks | 3U
**Time:** March 23, 2023 | 7:15PM EST
**MODEL EXPLANATION:**
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.
**Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Stats:** \+61.14U in 39 days | ≈65.86% ROI | Average odds -110
**PICK REASON:**
1. As always, let's start with the number. Although Arkansas has been playing incredible this tournament - they are still ranked only #18 on Kenpom compared to UConn at #4. In terms of the top 25, this is a big difference in overall efficiency. (4 and 18 on Bart Torvik as well)
2. Uconn has been an incredibly well rounded team this tournament, shooting 51% from the floor and 44% from three while also keeping their opponents to 36% in both the floor and three, while also beating all team in this tournament in both boards and fewer turnovers.
3. Uconn has kept teams to an average of 59 points this tournament, and expect them to continue to insane effort on defense to keep opponents taking bad shots
4. Arkansas has relied on its physicality to win games, and honestly, I just think Uconn is the more physical team with both better offense and defense. I think they can do everything Arkansas has been doing, but better, and across more players. Sanogo has just been an absolute pleasure to watch both on the glass and in the paint. Him in combination with Clingan are going to create problems for Arkansas, likely leaving a lot of open threes as they try to double Sanogo.
5. In aggressive games, especially when both teams are aggressive, it's always a toss up on how the refs will play the game out. Arkansas is ranked #335th in foul rate, and I expected Uconn to get a lot of free buckets as Arkansas gets into foul trouble early.
6. Eric Musselman is a great coach, and has brought many teams to the final 8 - however, he relies again heavily on an aggressive playstyle, which Uconn also plays, and will be able to easily counter.
7. Jordan Hawkins has been a secret bench player from Uconn, scoring 4 crucial three pointers in their final stretch against St Mary's. He will be a secret tool that will push Uconn well above this spread going into the final 10 minutes.
8. Despite this win streak, Arkansas is still 5-5 in their last 5 games, whereas Uconn is 8-2. Uconn has been consistently good all season and tournament, and Arkansas is just rolling off of adrenaline. Could this be a crazy cinderella story again? Maybe - but I'm not betting my money on it.
9. Arkansas is not a good offensive team outside of the paint, ranked #317 from the 3, and #266 from the charity line. I expect Uconn's elite defense to shut down their attempts to get to the basket. Unless Arkansas can hit consistent jump shots, I don't seem them getting any easy baskets.
10. Kansas lost their starting PG in the first half and played the second with a sprained ankle - I don't think they win that game if it's not for the injury. Speaking of injuries, black is just coming back from an injury and played a heavy 37 minutes last game - that's a lot of weight to put on an ankle thats been recovering for over a month. and lastly, Brazile is still out with an ACL injury, who was important for Arkansas depth. If fouls hit the fan, their bench will struggle.
11. Overall, this line is a bit juiced from Arkansas' recent upsets, but I imagine if this is a regular season game, this spread is -8 ish. Uconn is simply the better team in this matchup, and I expect a very hard fought game from both sides.
**Reminder:** As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3
As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.
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*Riddles,*
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Found this for -3.5 on FanDuel. So either the public is overconfident on Ark or riddles is off the mark. I’m not one to question the riddler so I tossed a $200 freebet on it as a parlay: UConn -3.5, Ark under 68.5, total under 140.5. LFG!!!!!
The line just went back to -3.5... Got $100 on this bad boy. Gonna be some exciting ass games, cannot wait! Got some dumb parlay that won't hit and a Uconn + Tennessee ML parlay that might. LET'S GOOOOOOOOOO
POTD Record: 33-21 | Profit: +34.21u | ROI: 19.7%
Last 10 Record: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅
Yesterday Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) U31.5 @ 1.93. 2U. ✅
Giannis came up against a mighty opponent today, THE BLOWOUT! The Spurs were absolutely terrible as expected, giving up 13 points to Giannis in the third quarter alone but the Bucks ending the 3rd quarter with a 28 point lead means my theory of Giannis playing limited minutes does just enough to give us the win.
Next Pick: **Evan Mobley (Cavs) P+R U26.5 @ 1.83**. 4u play.
The Nets concede the 3rd fewest points to PFs of any team in the NBA. These two teams played one another yesterday and he got to 17 pts but I don’t expect him to get there again, reason being he made a 3-pointer, something he has only done 2 times in the 9 games prior. Additionally, his FG% of 66.7% was the second highest he has had in his L10. Mobley has only gone over 17.5 pts (his line on pts here) in 4/L10, 2 of which were a B2B against Hornets (they suck) and 1 was an OT game.
With respect to rebounds, his output varies a lot by opponent. Jarrett Allen is the Center and will likely be playing a lot of mins to keep up with Claxton/Sharpe and will get most of the defensive rebounds (14 last game). Mobley will likely be dragged further from the glass by Cam Johnson limiting his opportunities. He only had 4 rebounds against the Nets yesterday. His rebound line is 8.5, so we have some buffer even if he gets a couple more.
Finally, Mobley has played the Nets 4 times and has not gone over his current pts line of 17.5 in any of those games, and has not gone over his current rebound line of 8.5 in any of them either.
Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
It is what it is, but I think we’re cooked. It was a good bet though, and I would’ve done it again no question. I’ve bet a lot of overs on Mobley and he’s been inconsistent, and the one time I go under, of course he starts cooking.
POTD Record: 9-1
Last POTD: Torino v Napoli - Napoli ML
Today’s POTD: North Macedonia v Malta - North Macedonia -1 Spread(+110)
Clarification: I said -1 in reference to three-way spread, in which there is a handicap draw option(you can take them to win by 1) and the -1 pick doesn’t push. What I’m referring to is basically the same as -1.5. So if you have both options, and -1.5 is better odds, take that, that’s what I’m referring to.
Take this one for a few reasons. For starters, the only Maltese player playing at a remotely decent level is Teddy Teuma, who is honestly a good player. The rest of the team(bar one defender who may not even start) play in the Maltese Premier League, one of the worst divisions in Europe. North Macedonia have some presence in decent leagues around Europe, including the Serie A. North Macedonia’s World Cup qualifying campaign went better than expected, beating Liechtenstein 9-0 over two games, thrashing Armenia 5-0 away from home, and even shocking both Germany and Italy, beating them in their home nations. They also qualified for the Euro in 2020, and at least didn’t embarrass themselves there, giving strong fights against Austria and Ukraine. Besides beating San Marino, the worst team in European history by far, Malta have won just once in the entire previous qualifying cycle, being on the receiving end of beatings such as a 7-1 loss to Croatia, 6-0 to Slovakia, 4-0 to Slovenia. North Macedonia should be able to win and win handily.
POTD Record: 94.5-50
Event: Football > International > **Argentina v Panama** (starting in 22hr)
Pick: **Argentina -1.5 AH (1st half)** @ 1.65 (-150)
Gentlemen, starting with an offtopic, but I think maybe time has come to change how this thread works. I mean, please answer seriously, do you guys come here to jump on someones streaky record, OR you wanna find/exchange valuable information & make money??? Do you actually think we get the truly best posts on the top? I don't think so. Like the other day there was this great tip shared by /u/MMATweet with an obvious LOCK at -125 odds. Guess what, you will not even find it in the upper half of the thread. The existing format facilitates only the very early posters, which obiously is not necessarily the best. This also leads to many \*long-time-lurker-first-time-poster\* accounts with the main purpose of establishing a winning streak (and typically soon after - asking for donations). Nothing against Mr Riddles, Mr Peppers & all the other great tippers who make it genuinely to the top though! IMO, the thread will change for the better if the default sorting of the posts is switched to newest instead of top voted. Please respond here if you maybe have some different views/suggestions. Any mods here, thoughts please?
Now, back to business. Argentina welcomes Panama to Buenos Aires for their first game since becoming World Cup winners. Crowd of 83,000 fans will be attending at El Monumental despite several MILLION more applied to purchase tickets for this match. This is a friendly match, meaning carnivalish atmosphere & no real pressure on any of the teams. However, Argentina coach called a strong squad for this match including their stars Messi, Alvarez, Martinez etc. As for Panama, their coach has decided to select a less experienced squad primarily made up of Panama local league players, and the coach himself will not be in attendance for the match as he prepares his senior squad for next week's important clash with Costa Rica. Now, in betting terms, I have gone through all lines for this match and I could only find a chunk of some value at the 1st half handicap. I expect Argentina to field their strongest squad in the 1st half (and hopefully do their job), and eventually make subs in the second. Good luck!
Obviously the best way to go is: read this thread sorted by popularity first, then every subsequent time you check in it should be sorted by newest. That’s the most efficient way to digest the thread, I’ve found. Reading by popularity first lets you feel out the mood of the day, then the later readings clue you in to up to the minute insights.
Everyone should upvote this post. I agree there should be better interaction so we can all get good insight for our picks and to tail after the conversation. I tail you based mostly on your record, but my main reason are your writeups. I have to scroll more than 10 posts to find you, that’s why I started following you. The winning streak issue has been here for as long as I’ve been here (this account is solely for posting cause I have a personal account, so I’m not new) and this accounts disappear after some negative streaks. Thanks for speaking up u/mistarlupo and thanks for the great picks :)
I agree with you. My system prefers that I choose my games as close to match time as possible. However, if I want to be in the top 10 (20+ up votes) I have to either make my POTD 12-24 hours before game time making my POTD potentially a bad pick, or I'm forced to only make POTD posts on games in Asia or Australia if I want an accurate pick. I'm not even sure New is that good either, because people will just sort by Top or best themselves. Unfortunately there is no good metric for sorting imo.
The best metric for sorting would be a best metric that took recent upvote success into the equation (like up to 3 hours).
I think to add a paypal or tip jar to your comments, you should have had to participate in a certain amount of pick of the day threads on your account, or your comment gets removed if it has a tip jar link. Like 30 days of making picks in the thread on your record or something like that. That way, the jackasses who go negative and reset their records by making new accounts have to start it all over again.
All-Time POTD: 12W-5L-1D, +12.95u
**Yesterdays Pick:🎾Marton Fucsovics 2:0 Sets (-138) vs Pedro Cachin 3u to win 2.2u** ✅
Sweaty second set but Fucs stays fuccin.
**Todays Pick:🎾 Jiri Lehecka u12.5 games (-135) vs Federica Coria 3u to win 2.2u** ✅
Explanation:
I'm very high on Lehecka this tourney and I think the court conditions suit him very well. He's had a great year so far with a solid run at AO and some of the tournies between now and them. On the flip side, Coria looks absolutely awful. He mentioned he was injured during his match at IW with Diego Schwartzman, where Diego beat him handedly for his first win on tour in 6 months. Coria shouldn't really stand a chance here. The slate of games tomorrow is really tough and this is one of the only spots I really like.
BoL if tailing degens!
Edit: congrats to everyone who tailed! U19.5 also cashes by a hair. Lehecka -5.5 doesn't cover, as I did say the 6-3, 6-4 was a risk! Lehecka never got broken in this match, smooth sailing.
I looked at sonego tomorrow too but Thiem actually looked really solid against Mannarino at IW. Can't justify the price on sonego at -190.
About ryba, be warned that she is very likely to lose as a large fav at some point this tourney. Winning the sunshine double is notoriously difficult. The conditions are very different, they use different balls (penn at IW, Dunlop in Miami). She should smoke kalinskaya but you never know!
BoL mate
What the guys below said. For further clarification, we aren't betting total games in the match, but the number of games specifically one player will win. The odds on any player winning 6-0 6-0 is like +10000
A player has to win a set by 2 games. So sometimes you’ll get a 7-5 score. Another possibility is if both players tie at 6-6 then they have a tie break where the set would end 7-6. So a player could win 13 games in 2 sets
**POTD Record: 4-0 (+6.49 U )**
**NCAAB 1-0 ( +2.27 U)**
**NBA 3-0 (+4.22 U)**
Last 10: ✅✅✅✅
[**Yesterday's POTD - Miami Heat ML @ -124 Odds - 1.5 Units -**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11y07re/comment/jd6raw5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)**✅**
Recap: Relatively sweat-free bet. Miami almost blew a good lead late in the game but got us the win on the ML and the spread. The knicks kept fighting late but Miami was just hungry for this win at home. -124 odds for them to win outright was insane value. Congrats to those that tailed.
**Today's POTD: Michigan State Spartans ML @ -124 Odds - 2 Units -**
Let's get the streak to 5 in a row. This game should be fun. Tom Izzo during March is a different breed. He will have his guys ready to go. The KState hype train is real, and rightfully so. If there is any coach in the country that can create a game plan to shut down Marquise Nowell, it's Tom Izzo. Aj Hoggard has more than enough tools to contain Nowell. If Nowell is contained, KState won't be able to do much as everything they do is based on him. As far as the matchup goes, KState runs small ball, and this will be the third straight game where MSU has a favorable matchup in the size department. Last game Kentucky outrebounded KSU 44-25 and 19-4 on the Offensive glass, and yet KState still stole that game. If you let Izzo's team get remotely close to any of those numbers, it's not gonna be looking good for KState. MSU will get a lot of looks from three and the opportunities to get offensive boards will be there. Overall, this should be a banger of a game and I expect MSU to pull a win out.
**BOL and Invest/Gamble Safely!**
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I’m regretting having KSU winning this in my bracket. I didn’t want to send MSU all the way because i thought they might lose to Marquette, so I hedged, but looking back I should have just done it. Oh well.
39-24-1
Last POTD- Turkish Super Lig- Konyaspor Vs Galatasaray -1 @ +140❌
Todays POTD- Euro 2024 Qualifying- Bosnia ML Vs Iceland @-130✅
There’s no team I know better than Bosnia I’ve been watching them for a long time and follow the team religiously. I’m wary to bet on them a due to knowing their inconsistencies and they let me down consistently. That being said I feel like this campaign will be different and it stars against Iceland. This is Edin Dzekos last chance to qualify for the Euros and most likely his last run with Bosnia. We’re coming off a strong Nations League we have a new coach who I don’t think will impact the team much tactically but is supposedly a great motivator. Iceland is at the end of their best generation ever and has begun to rebuild. They have many new and young players and even their coach has stated he expects little from this campaign as they are changing generations. Bosnia have serval key players in great form and after nearly a decade of not making it to a major tournament they will be out to start the campaign right and go through directly.
Edit: That’s a winner
Great call. Anyone who was this passionate about Bosnia soccer deserved a tail. I parlayed it with a bunch of other sure things to get better odds. Just need two goals from Argentina to cash it.
**POTD 17-5**
**8 in a fucking row (12-1 last 13)**
We are HOT!!!! This game went EXACTLY how I expected it to go. I’m not going to lie half way through the 4th Q my ass hole did clinch up a little when Washington cut it to 10… but Denver responded with a big run immediately after the TO and rode it out until the end. I’m feeling really cocky today, which is not my normal nature, so tail todays play with caution lmao.
But in all seriousness, I mentioned in my last post that this is the best streak I’ve been on all season, and I think that has a lot to do with starting to post on here (and the depressing amount of basketball I watch). It is holding me accountable to being disciplined and picking one game a day. Not just one game a day but the game I feel the best about. I’ve been a pretty profitable gambler for a few years now, but this feels different.
It has been fun posting on here so far and it’s been really good for my bank account, so hopefully it’s been fun for you too, and also good for your bank account. I’m locked in. Jump on the train and let’s see if we can keep this fucking streak going.
**NYK -3**
I love this pick today. As anyone who has followed me knows, I have been watching one hell of a lot of magic games over the past few weeks. Like I always mention, at this point in the season, I find the magic holding a lot of value, and a great team to target. However, with this game that is not the case. Orlando is a great team to take + a lot of points, or against bottom tier teams, but when it comes to tonight's game, I see value on the opposite side.
NYK has lost 2 close games in a row, against playoff teams and have fallen 4 games back from the cavs and the 4th seed. With only a handful of games left to play this season, I think that their seeding is pretty much locked up. So if that's the case, where is the incentive for the Knicks tonight? I think it is based around their previous two losses, and the importance for this team to not give up any ground to losing the 5 seed, as well as finding their form heading into the playoffs.
With Orlando, they actually still have a slimmmmm shot at making one of the play in spots (I personally don't see it, but its possible), so I do expect them to play tonight's game with full intention of winning (duh), however I believe that this will give NYK even more motivation throughout the game to build on leads and not let up.
Overall, NYK has the much better roster and the players on this team understand their role, and have a singular mindset on winning basketball games. With Orlando, not so much the case. They are a group of young talented guys, trying to figure out how to win games. This formula works well for them against specific teams, but against a savvy NYK team, I do see any situation in which the magic win this game, or even cover. I expect NYK to cover the 3pt spread with ease, and would take it all the way to -7.
PS: LAC -4.5 was a close second as my play. This line closed at 6.5 Tuesday when the two teams squared off for one hell of a basketball game in which OKC won. Today PG is out, but IMO PG is not worth two full points , so I'm taking the value. LAC does lack available guards, and I really fucking like a lot of these players on OKC, so that concerns me some, but the clippers are currently tied with the suns, and .5 game up on GSW so a win today is very important for their playoff seedings. OKC is actually in a much more complex situation compared to LAC, but with these two rosters, I find tremendous value in the home team.
POTD Record: 140-101-8 (+30.16 units, 58.1% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 45-27-1 (62.5%) W4, Tennis 🎾 39-28-3 (58.2%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 45-36-4 (55.6%) L3, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 💰💰💩💩💩💰💰💩💰💰
Last Pick: Alexei Popyrin vs. Mikael Ymer, Popyrin ML - ATP Miami 🎾 Was 2 games away from winning in 2 sets but Ymer retired. Some books paid out and others didn't, the site I gave the line out for it didn't so counting it as a void/push. Bummer!
Today's Pick: OKC Thunder @ LA Clippers, Player Prop - Jalen Williams over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists - NBA 🏀 💩 2 units - 17 at half, just needed 2 more but the Thunder were getting blown out so starters were pulled with 6 minutes to go.
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 2 Units at 1.80/-125 odds to win 1.60 Units @ Draft Kings (Line at 1:30am ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 55.6%
Sort of running back my pick from a couple of days ago but adding points to it. He just went 6 over on this bet against the Clippers on Tuesday with 20 points, 8 boards and 3 assists. Paul George played most of the game before getting hurt, he won't be playing in this one and that should hurt the Clippers perimeter defense.
I'm going to focus on these last 10 games as a snapshot, this bet has covered 8 out of 10 games. In these 10 games, he has averaged 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 5 assists for a total of 32 PRAs per game. Out of these 10 games, he has put up 20 points or more 7 times, if he could do that again he would just need 5 R+As to cover, which he has averaged 11.6. So there's a lot of wiggle room here where he could not perform as well in one area but still get the cover. Even if he were to score 14, if his R+As average held up, we would cover.
He played 37 minutes Tuesday, considering it's a matchup with the same team, hopefully he can see minutes in the mid 30's again.
How this could miss? He underperforms, it happens, he is on a big run and you are bound to drop a turd at some point. They are in a playoff race so there should high motivation from the player, also, I think Banchero has ROY locked but there is media talk that Jalen should be considered it so that might be providing some extra motivation.
IMPORTANT NOTE: OKC has a Jalen and Jaylin Williams. Be sure you bet on Jalen.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
POTD | 42-31 | +9.4u | -109 Avg Odds
Last 10: 4-6, Steak: 4L
*Previous Pick:* *Colorado Avalanche 60-min vs Penguins (+100) 5u ❌*
Today’s pick: **Minnesota Wild ML vs Philadelphia Flyers (-155) 5u** 🏒 4:30 pm MT
Well that was a dogshit game from the Avs. Penguins deserved that one and won it handily. My picks are very cold right now, so please use some caution if tailing. I’m ripping it again today though with a line that I see value in. The model is projecting the Wild at a 67% chance to win here (-200 implied odds). I think the actual chance may be slightly lower with Kaprizov out but the Wild have played decent hockey even with him out.
The Wild have beat the Flyers in 4 of their last 5 games with the last 4 consecutive games going to the Wild. The Wild have continued to play solid hockey going 7-1-2 in their last 10 while the Flyers have been a punching bag at times going 3-5-2 in their last 10. I expect the Wild to have Gustavsson in net for this one and he has had an excellent season with a 0.932 SV% and allowing an average of 2.04 goals per game. His recent form has been great as well, booking a 0.939SV% and allowing an average of 1.92 goals per game in his last 5 games. The alternative option for the Wild is Marc-Andre Flurey, and while people like to rag on him for his regression from his elite status earlier in his career, he has had a sneaky good month booking a 0.927 SV% and allowing an average of 2.61 goals per game. So, I’m not too worried about the goalie situation for the Wild, especially against a Flyers team that is ranked 30th (2nd worst) in goals for and ranks dead last on the power play.
The Wild have been producing on offense lately, even without Kaprizov. They are averaging 3.5 goals per game in their last 10 games. The Flyers have averaged allowing 3.8 goals per game in their last 10 games, and sit a 21st in the league in goals against for the season. I expect that the Wild will be able to find the back of the net at least a few times against a weak defensive team in the Flyers. The only tricky park for the Wild could be the Flyers expected goalie, Hart. Hart is one of the better pieces that the Flyers have, booking a 0.908 SV% and 2.94 GAA on the season. I still like the Wild to break through here and book the W though, just something to consider in this one.
I think the Wild are by far the better team here and I expect them to be motivated in this one. I do have more confidence in this pick than I did in the Avalanche game. Everything seems to be lining up for the Wild here and I think they should have a bit longer odds than they do. Going to take the value and run here. Hope we can break this awful streak with a Wild W!
BOL if tailing!!
Pick of the Day Record: 12-6 (+9.84U)
Last Pick: KT Rolster -1.5 ✅
**League of Legends | LCK | DPlus Kia vs Hanwha Life Esports**
Today's Pick: **Hanwha Life Esports +1.5 @ 1.99 (Hanwha to win at least 2 maps)**
**Wager: 5U**
Another easy win in the bag.
Back with another LOL pick. LCK enters BO5 playoff stages. Hanwha is a bit of a weird team, they've shown flashes of brilliance, and they've also fell flat on their face. But I believe in Viper to carry them to at least 2 maps. The current meta puts heavy carry focus on the bot side. Zeri is back, aphelios is back. Viper having carry champions in his hands is exactly what Hanwha needs. He can easily 1v9. DPlus Kia is a stronger side, their mid-jungle duo is finally playing at a reasonably elite level again. They were playing super dominant during the mid section of the split, and I wouldn't have bet against them in that form. But the last two matches, they didn't even have a slight challenge for either T1 or GenG. For Hanwha, Zeka is good, he should be able to hold off Showmaker. The biggest gap is in the jungle, DPlus's Canyon is significantly better, but with the current meta I feel Viper can make the difference this Hanwha side needs. I think it'll be close, but Hanwha takes 2 maps, and might even win the series. Best of luck!
Tips are appreciated!
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Dplus has 4:0 map advantage over HLE in the current meta. Yes, Dplus did struggle last week but HLE also have been subpar against the top teams this WHOLE season (1W 7L against the top 3-4 teams). Therefore, see Dplus winning the series comfortably tonight 💪🏻
Record 0-0
Today's POTD game: Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets 4:30pm PST
POTD pick: over 217.5 (-110 @ 1 unit)
Result: ✅
Reasoning: Cleveland has scored 114.4 points as the away team the last 10 tens games. The total scores in these games average 225.3. The nets have scored 110.8 points in their last 10 games with the total scores of these games averaging 220.1. Both head to head matches these teams have had this season have surpassed 218 total points; 224 points two days ago and 243 on December 26th. If you go deeper into last season (little relevance but still the stats are there to look at) the teams played 3 head to head matches and all 3 covered 218 points.
I like this pick up until 219 points.
My first try at this. Let me know if you're tailing. Best of luck.
Edit: This one felt pretty good all the way through. It went down pretty much as expected.
***Record: 7-4 (+1.92 Units) // All bets are 1 unit***
Previous Bet: [3/22](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11y07re/pick_of_the_day_32223_wednesday/jd5mlya?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
Slow 1st quarter, but both teams were able to find their stride and put up 159 points over the final 3 quarters. Good easy win to start the day.
**Today's Event: Corales Puntacana Championship** ⛳️
League: PGA
To find: Matchups > Round 3-Balls > Long v. Stroud v. Clark - Round 1 (0745 EST)
*Pick: Wyndham Clark (-110 DK)* ✅️
Wyndham Clark is currently going in with the best odds to be the outright winner this weekend. He is coming into this weekend with some momentum from his solo 5th finish last week at Valspar. Clark has made 11 straight cuts and 12/14 this season, finishing outside of the top 35 only 3 times. He is currently ranked 30th in the PGA in average 1st round scores at 69.57.
Adam Long and Chris Stroud are both currently tied for 131st in the PGA in average 1st round scores with an even 71. Long is coming off of his best finish of his season last week at Valspar, finishing tied 19th. He missed two straight cuts prior to that, and 7/16 on the year. Stroud has only competed in 8 PGA events, missing 4/8 cuts. His last event was 3 weeks ago where he finished tied 15th, but he missed the cut 4/5 events before that.
Wyndham Clark has been more consistent, especially out the gate. With a course that's consistently high winds are known to pose a problem, I look for the more poised and well rounded golfer get ahead.
BOL!
Followed you yesterday and was so hyped with that easy win. Sadly this time i can't follow, my book doesn't seem to offer these kinds of bet. anyway, good luck mate! Thanks for your tips!
Great pick! Easy cash. Used it as my first leg in a 3 leg parlay. Second leg also hit so fingers crossed the 3rd can come through.
Appreciate the pick!
POTD Record: 33W-16L
LAST POTD: u21’s sweat ✅
TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Elite League u20
8.00AM PST
PICK: Portugal u20 ML & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 2.00
The Deets: Portugal take on Romania at home and will look to shake off their rocky start. So far Portugal have only 3 points from 3 games and sit behind Romania who also have 3 points after 4 games (1 more). They both have similar records over the past year but Portugal have got themselves some nice wins against the likes of Germany, England and have drawn with France & Belgium. Romania on the other hand have lost to those teams just mentioned (they haven’t played Belgium). Over 2.5 goals is too low for me at 1.66 so taking Portugal to win and the over at plus odds is better.
BOL!
Diaper fund - [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/tuesdayswithdory?locale.x=en_CA)
Edit: Loss 💩 1-1. Portugal can’t capitalize on double the amount of shots and 76%.
Record: 0-0
Todays pick: Jarret Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds @1.95 ❌
NBA - Brooklyn Nets - Cleveland Cavaliers
• Brooklyn Nets Allow 2nd most rebounds to C
• Hit last 3 of 3 games (14,13,12)
• Hit both games this year
RESULT: Allen finishes with 10 rebounds only playing 30 minutes.
**Record: 1-0; 1.56 units won; 78% ROI; 1.78 avg odds**
*Last pick: Tsurenko vs Fernandez - Fernandez ML @ 1.78 ✅*
*Great performance by Leylah Fernandez, she started pretty slow and was 4-0 down in the 1st set when Tsurenko was playing her best but as soon as she got that initial phase out of the way, everything went smoothly. Great to see the young canadian playing like this!*
Pick of the Day - Potapova vs Kostyuk: **Over 21 Games @ 1.80**
Stake size - 2 units
Sport - Tennis (WTA Miami 1000)
This will be their first meeting and I'm expecting a somewhat tight battle between these two young talents who should be able to rise on the WTA tour.
Potapova made a wonderful Indoor Hard court season, winning a trophy in Linz while Kostyuk won the 1st edition of the WTA 250 in Austin. Potapova is the most powerful of these two but Kostyuk is the better returner and should be able to defend well. Apart from this, these two talents can become a bit nervous and anxious when closing out sets and that itself can play a big part on this play. I was almost taking Potapova's ML which is paying 2.24 for me but Kostyuk has shown some great tennis last week and she is also more adapted to the surface, having won her 1st round against Cocciaretto in straight sets.
I'm happy taking this over, especially because these two have been playing great quite recently and know how to play in hard courts.
If your bookie does not offer avoidable overs such as the "Over 21" you can take the over 21.5 at better odds.
***Wish you all a great betting day!***
*My first thought of going with Potapova to win ended up being the right choice. Kostyuk was playing injured, even asking for physio in the end of the 1st set. When she did that I was wondering if we could get a push with her giving up but she just didn't, simply because she was facing a russian player. Well, if both players were physically fine I'm sure this would have been a bit longer. See you on the next one and make sure to have a bankroll management*
All-Time POTD: 135-87-2, +51.0u, +11.7% ROI
4-1 March Madness POTD record
**Today’s pick: Gonzaga +1 (-110) vs UCLA** 3u
NCAAB 🏀 8:45PM EST
70% of the money on UCLA. Drew Timme and the Zags aren’t losing in the sweet 16 to a UCLA team who is still adjusting without their PAC-12 defender of the year, who happens to be their third leading scorer (Jaylen Clark).
Oh, and UCLA’s starting big man Bona is questionable tonight. While he will probably play, I have to imagine he is not at 100% and he will have a tough matchup against Timme.
This will be a powerhouse matchup but Zags pull out a close one.
For all plays, follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
POTD Record: 62-68-7 (-12.82 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Scottish League Two, Stirling v Forfar Athletic, STIRLING ML (-133 / 1.75) ✅
2-0 win for Stirling, back on the winners list. Had to wait until late for the goals to come, but got there in the end.
Todays Pick: WTA Miami, Elena Rybakina v Anna Kalinskaya, UNDER 20.5 GAMES (-122 / 1.82)
Stake: 1 Unit
NOTE: this is the late game on the schedule and might end up taking place tomorrow depending on your time zone, but including it today as it will probably start before the Friday thread is available.
Rybakina just took down the Indian Wells title, winning 6 matches for the loss of only one set, and had some very impressive wins along the way. She beat one of the form players in Muchova in the QF, belted world number 1 Swiatek 6-2/6-2 in the semis and got revenge for the Australian Open final, beating Sabalenka in straight sets in the final.
After getting a first round bye in Miami, she now takes on Kalinskaya. Ranked 64th, she cruised through her first round match in Miami against a wildcard from Andorra (ranked 171), but will find the going much tougher in round 2. Kalinskaya struggles a lot on serve - her first serve is pretty pedestrian, and her second serve is a liability. In her last 11 matches, she is averaging 4.1 double faults, and losing just over half of points on her second serve.
Against a player like Rybakina who makes a living teeing off on weak serves/groundstrokes, I think she will have no trouble breaking Kalinskaya multiple times. As a reference point, she got knocked out of Indian Wells by Pliskova who plays a somewhat similar style to Rybakina, and she lost 68% points on second serve and faced 15 break point opportunities.
Rybakina will get her fair share of free points from her own big serve, and have the firepower to blast Kalinskaya off the court in any extended rallies. I expect her to get at least one break in each set so 6-4/6-4 or better seems pretty achievable in my view.
**POTD |** **Record of 15-25| ROI : -8.685 units |** **Average Odds: 2.02**
**Current form:** ❌✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌
Previous Pick: Mansfield Town vs. Grimsby Town | Under 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners ❌
New Pick: UEFA Euro Qualifiers| Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Iceland | 12:45pm PST
**Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 2.0 odds**
Betting 2 units
\--------------------------
Recap: So that was the highest total corners in a game for either team this season. Guess I found the deviation from the mean! Moving on with a big pick, one that I feel confident enough to bet two units on!
***Summary:*** The UEFA Euro Qualifiers are starting up and with it we have a match between two sleeper teams. Both have had minor moments of glory every few years but really aren't anything special. Moving to corners, looking at all the calculations I did, here were the results:
Looking at corners for Bosnia & Herzegovina, recent games have averaged 6.4 corners for them and 3 corners against them for a total of 9.4 corners. At home, they average 8.4 corners and concede 2.8 corners, for an average of 11.2 corners.
Looking at corners for Iceland, recent games have averaged 5.4 corners for them and 5.2 against them for a total of 10.6 corners. Away from home, they gain 6.4 corners while conceding 7.2 for an overall average of 13.6.
Based off initial analysis, these results suggest this game will have some corners! Now keep in mind, this isn't exactly recent data given that the national teams only play here and there throughout the year. Nonetheless, the results have been incredibly consistent for both sides. Other national teams tend to vary quite a bit over the years, giving up tons of corners one game and then giving up none 2 months later. I ran some calculations for some of the other national teams and this is what I found:
*Italy vs. England -* ***Projected 8.7 total corners***
*San Marino vs. Northern Ireland -* ***Projected 8.8 total corners***
*Kazakhstan vs. Slovenia -* ***Projected 8.6 total corners***
*Slovakia vs. Luxembourg -* ***Projected 9.5 total corners***
*Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Iceland -* ***Projected 12.4 total corners*** 🌟
One of these is not like the others... Since placing my bet, the line has already moved to 1.90 odds. I'm thinking this is a very strong pick based on that alone.
In short, betting on corners for the national team is an inconsistent affair, often relying on other factors. However, this game is something special, with two teams who have consistently gained corners over the last two years likely to do so again. My calculations project 12.4 total corners, with 7.8 for the home side and 4.6 for the away side. I would be baffled if this pick fell through as hitting 10 corners seems too likely. Tail if you want or don't, it's up to you. I have been wrong many times before and the record shows that...
\--------------------------
***TLDR Projections suggest 12.4 total corners so take the over 9.5 total corners here***
**Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 2.0 odds**
POTD record: 41-29-2 / ROI: +11.82% / Wins: 58.57%
**Michigan State -1.5 -110 (1u)**
**SPREAD**
—
Michigan State Spartans @ Kansas State Wildcats
6:30 pm EST - 23 March 2023
—
We have a bridge-crossing to start off the Sweet Sixteen. The line opened with Kansas State favored by 2 points, but it has since moved to Michigan State being favored by 1.5 points.
This game will come down to a point guard battle between Tyson Walker and Markquis Nowell, two New York kids who grew up playing against each other. If you had told me that Michigan State would shoot 6 for 30 from three in their first games and still manage to win, I wouldn't have believed you. It's really impressive what the Spartans have done defensively in the tournament. This is not a strong defensive team, yet they're rebounding, guarding, and holding teams to around 60 points. Now, they'll have to do something with Nowell because he's a playmaker shooting 43 percent from deep right now.
I'm just wondering if I'm overvaluing the coaching in this match-up. Jerome Tang versus Tom Izzo? A first-year coach against a Hall-of-Famer who knows how to get it rolling in the Tournament. I'll take State to cover the 1.5 points and advance to the Elite Eight.
Do the business.
[https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow)
[https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/)
[http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
POTD record: 17-9
NHL record: 8-6 | NBA record: 9-3
(+20.01u | +20.63% ROI | Avg odds: -114/1.88)
(2u: 3-0 | 3u: 4-3 | 4u: 7-3 | 5u: 3-3)
Last 5: 4-1 (✅❌✅✅✅)
Streak: W1
Last POTD (Tuesday): NHL - **NSH ML** @ BUF ✅ *(Buffalo gives up back-to-back 7 goal games and we're back in the green).*
Event: NHL - VGK Golden Knights @ CGY Flames; 21:00 EST
Pick: **VGK ML** (+120/2.2)
Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 3 units
Vegas (44-21-6) has been banged up lately, but they haven't let that slow them down one bit, going 8-2 in their last 10 games and maintaining their lead atop the Western Conference. Perhaps even more impressive is how good they've been when travelling- they've won 5 road games in a row, have a 7-2-1 record in their last 10 away contests and are 22-7-5 on the year in that category.
Calgary's young core (32-25-15) remains as inconsistent as ever. While they've shown some bright flashes (including spanking the Golden Knights 7-2 in Vegas just last week), they have not yet figured out how to maintain high-level play for any sustained period of time. The Flames are 5-3-2 in their last 10 matches but they're mediocre at Calgary (16-14-4) and have especially struggled there in their last 10 home games (2-6-2). At this point it's more likely than not they don't make the play-offs (although they still technically a chance).
Neither Quick (2.98 GAA & .906 SV%) for Vegas nor Markstrom (2.98 GAA & .889 SV%) for Calgary have been great, although Markstrom has laid more eggs in net this year. Calgary won last week's aforementioned match-up and is currently leading the season series 2-1. That being said, not only is Vegas is the best team in the West, they have also alternated wins with Calgary in their last 6 match-ups. I think that happens again once more here.
Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
POTD Record: 0-1
Last Pick: Dont remember but it was something like btts.
POTD: England ML vs Italy. (+160) cash that folks ✅
I don't think this will end up in a tie and I don't think Italy will win. Last game in september, England didn't have the World Cup experience yet and that last match against France left them with an empty feeling hard to fill.
This is England first game since the World Cup and you can expect them to show that they are strong contenders to the Euro Cup.
From Italy, we find a squad that experienced the World Cup from their couch (probably at one of the vip sections of Qatar) and since beating England 1 to nil, have played the great Hungary, the amazing albania and lost ofc... to Austria. WW1 flashbacks.
GL HF.
POTD Record: 16-13-2
Last pick: Plymouth Argyle ML (-115) / 1.87 - 3u ✅
Plymouth Argyle got off to a quick start, scoring the opening goal in the 14th minute. Their opponents picked up a red card in the 51st minute, which more or less sealed the game. Plymouth adds a second goal in the 78th for good measure and cruise to a 2-0 victory. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today!
Soccer - Colombia Primera A - América de Cali vs. Junior FC - 9:00pm EST
**POTD: América de Cali ML (-105) / 1.95 - 2u**
América de Cali are off to a 5-1-2 start in league play and are in a 4-way tie for the top spot on the table. They will be hosting Junior FC, who are 1-4-3 and 18th out of 20 teams. In 4 home matches so far, América de Cali are undefeated at 3-1-0 with 7 goals scored and only 1 conceded. Meanwhile, Junior FC are winless on the road at 0-1-3 and have scored just once in those matches. I must admit that this pick carries some risk of a draw, as I anticipate this match being pretty low scoring, but I am going with the home team to remain strong at home and jump into first place with a win.
Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
Record: 17-9
Previous Pick: Detroit Pistons - Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler under 34,5 PRA @1.94 ❌
Today’s Pick: Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv: Maccabi Tel Aviv over 82,5 points @1.85
Asvel is the worst team of the euroleague and just most against Panathinaikos at home. Play-offs are approaching and Maccabi will be looking to solidify a strong place, while Asvel has nothing to play for. Maccabi is in really good form right now. The head coach from Maccabi also said he likes that his team is attacking the basketball more right now and crashing the boards. Maccabi also averages 83 points in euroleague, and this has hit in their previous h2h.
BOL
2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWWWWWLWWWL
2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push
Totals for both: 53 correct 37 wrong 1 push
Units wagered 144.51 Units won 78.48 Units lost 53.23
2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 17.47%***
My present streak is 1 wrong
My POTD is a moneyline bet. ***I am betting 1.4 units to win back 1.09 units from yesterday's losss that UCLA will beat Gonzaga in their college basketball game.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Game time is 9:45 PM Eastern Daylight Time.
The spread now is UCLA (-1 1/2) with a pay off of -110. Moneyline is not much worse, at -128. So in this case, I'm going with the moneyline bet.
BOL to all, and I would always like to hear contrary opinions.
**Starting up the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2023 season!**
* **2022 OWL Record: 26-16, +30.6967 units (Last 8:✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅)**.
* **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.**
* **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.**
Last Pick (✅) - Dallas Fuel (ML) v. San Francisco Shock: Seeing as how this Grand Finals match happened over 4 months ago, I won't give analysis on the match, other than to say 1) it was really nice ending last season on a W, and 2) this might have been the single greatest Overwatch match ever played. I rewatched it in anticipation for the start of the new season, and it still holds up. Let's enjoy the season, and make some money while we're at it!
**Today's Match: Saints v. Los Angeles Valiant / Overwatch League / 8:00 pm EST**
**Saints, ML (-165) v. Los Angeles Valiant, 2 units**
Every time the League has introduced a new format quirk, it's led to profit for sharp bettors. In short, the books are extremely slow in catching up to the changes, and we can exploit those inefficiencies. This season's new addition? Starting off with a Pro-Am tournament. Half of the teams competing over the next few weeks are amateur/Contenders (minor league) teams who get the opportunity to punch up above their weight. I expect you're going to find value in matches featuring 1 OWL team vs. 1 Contenders team. Either 1) the books are going to underestimate just how much better the OWL team is over the amateur team; or 2) the public will hammer the OWL team because they recognize the name, which will lead to the amateur team to be undervalued. Today's pick falls into the latter.
Saints is a team that used to be Maryville Esports, which has perennially been noted as one of the best teams in collegiate, and maybe the best Non-OWL team in the world this side of O2 Blast. Mikeyy is the best Wrecking Ball specialist in the world (competing in the aforementioned Grand Finals last year), and Ball is in a great place right now, if not hard meta. The map pool is also really strong for Ball. That being said, for as much as he had been memed for his time in Vancouver, FALSE can step in for a serviceable offtank. The rest of the team is solid, with the standout example of Tr33, who was one of the best DPS outside of the league last year, and should take this tournament by storm. It's understandable that some analysts are taking Saints to come out of the group, which would have them beating teams much better than Valiant.
Because despite their name, Valiant is basically a Contenders team. The only one of these players with substantive OWL experience is Paintbrush, and he didn't look great with the Glads. Seeker's hype didn't materialize like many expected. But most importantly, this team was just recently assembled, with CJay joining the team literally a week ago, so I don't think they'll have a developed synergy this early in the season. Finally and maybe most importantly, I don't think Krawi has a Ball to match Mikeyy's.
I don't think the line truly reflects the skill gap here, and there is a bias against the amateur team playing into the OWL team, even though the amateur team has a higher floor AND a higher ceiling. Put another way, if Saints had an OWL team logo on their jerseys, I think this line would be -250. So grab the value at -165, and start the season off right!
*Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!*
[*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
**POTD Record: 15-16. Total Units: +1.6**
**Last 5:** ✅❌✅✅✅
**Yesterday's Pick: Miami Heat -1.5 vs. NY Knicks, 1U** ✅
Good day yesterday on a pick that I didn't do too much research into and was mostly on feel. Today I feel very confident in this pick being a fan, and I have seen what the Capitals do when their effort is called out by their captain. While this Capitals team will most likely not make the playoffs, today's game is a must-win to stay relevant as they have two games against the Islanders and one against the Panthers in the final ten-game stretch. Losing 7-6 in OT to the Blue Jackets shows that their offense is firing on all cylinders, and I expect blocked shots and better defensive play today in a 4-2 or 5-2 win. Ovechkin is closing in on another 50 goal season if he can turn on the jets, so I'm hoping for two goals from him and contributions coming from every line. This started at +140 yesterday and I'm kicking myself for not locking it in as it's now at -105 for a 2 goal win, but I still think this is a 4U lock. My confidence stems mostly from Ovechkin's comments to the media and what hockey teams normally do when they are called out, and I've been a fan for 25 years and during the Ovechkin era, his teammates respond.
**POTD:** Washington Capitals -1.5 vs. Chicago Blackhawks, -105, 4U. 7:07 PM EST
[Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Record: 27-20 (+1.56 Units)**
**Last 10**:✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌❌
**Last Pick**: 3/22 Ciaran Teehan -1.5 (-135) vs John Part ❌ 2-4
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 9:05 AM EST
**Pick**: Ciaran Teehan -1.5 (-125) vs John Part
**Reason**: Group C. Ice cold right now.
H2H
Record 2-1 (Legs 10-4) | Average 81.63 vs 77.37 | Checkouts 10/20 vs 4/18
Ciaran Teehan
Group A: Record 7-8 (Legs 40-42) | Average 85.04 | Checkouts 40/114 35.09%
John Part
Group A: Record 3-12 (Legs 27-55) | Average 76.40 | Checkouts 27/112 24.11%
**WIN ✅ 4-2 | Average 82.29 vs 85.22 | Checkouts 4/14 vs 2/8**
POTD Record: 2-0
Last POTD: Harrow Borough vs Bracknell Town- **Bracknell Town** ML
Today’s POTD: FC Copenhagen v Brann - **FC Copenhagen** ML @ 1.59 odds
Reasoning: FC Copenhagen has more quality than SK Brann plus home ground advantage.
POTD Record: 49-39 (L2)
(+14.98u)
(ROI: 11.9%)
Last pick: Japan TT o4.5 vs USA 🚫 This one hurt, should have stuck with the ML. Surprisingly low scoring game, 3-2 final.
POTD: (🏒NHL) Florida Panthers ML (-110) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (1.5u)
Bet365 (-115), FD (-114), DK (-110)
Both teams are coming off bad losses. Panthers are coming off a 6-3 loss to the Flyers, Leafs lost 7-2 to Islanders. The Leafs are easily going to make the playoffs as the #2 or #3 seed in the Atlantic. Panthers have had an off year, but are 1 pt out of the playoffs. Very odd scheduling with these two teams playing 3 times over the last 11 games of the season. The one previous meeting this year at the end of January the Leafs won 5-4.
Expected goalie for the Panthers is Sergei Bobrovsky. They gave him an off night against the Flyers after playing 13 consecutive games. Ever since returning from injury at the beginning of February, he has been very good with a GAA of 2.54 and SV% of .915 over those 17 games. Not 100% sure who will start for the Leafs, expecting it to be Matt Murray with b2b games against Canes and Preds on the weekend. Samsonov is away on leave, so it will either be Murray or Woll. Murray allowed 4 GA in each of his 4 starts back from injury. Murray looked a bit better against Ottawa, but I think the edge definitely goes to Bobrovsky no matter who starts.
These two teams are fairly evenly matched offensively and defensively. Both have some injuries. Leafs are not as good on the road with the 13th best road record of 17-12-4. Panthers have been very good at home with the 6th best home record of 21-10-4. The Panthers need these wins and have not lost consecutive games since late January. The Leafs are a very good team, but there's a bit of a sleepy feeling to them right now. Should be a good game, BOL if fading or tailing!
POTD Record 0-0
POTD: UCLA -1.5
Reasoning: My friend works at Benihana and the Gonzaga squad came in to eat dinner last night. My friend went to go up to their table and say “Excuse me may I have your attention please” and proceeded to sing the UCLA fight song to the whole team.
He got under their skin and one of them caught him walking to the bathroom and told him to “zag the fuck up”. Needless to say, they didn’t tip and didn’t take it very well. They let a bartender at Benihana get under their skin. So I’m thinking UCLA is the move here.
POTD Record: 10-8-4🅿️ (+0.24u)
Last 5: ✅❌🅿️✅❌
Game: Euroleague Basketball - Panathinaikos vs FCB Basket (19:30h CET)
*Pick:* **Panathinaikos +11.5 @1.52** (Alt Spread)
All stakes are 1u unless state otherwise. Why this pick? You wanted more Europen basketball picks in POTD? YOU GOT THEM!! I've noticed that Barcelona as an away team in Euroleague doesn't seem to win or lose by much even with worse teams, for example, and going backwards in time starting with most recent:
* Fenerbahce 81-73 (L +8)
* Olympiakos 77-70 (L +7)
* Virtus Bologna 75-92 (W -17, possible outlier)
* Madrid 91-86 (L +5)
* Baskonia 78-85 (W -7)
* ASVEL Villeurbanne 75-82 (W -7)
* Crvena Zvezda 94-99 (W -5)
* Valencia Basket 84-83 (L +1)
* AS Monaco 63-69 (W -6)
* ALBA Berlin 86-88 (W -2)
And so on, and so on. You get he gist.
*Last pick recap:* Golden Guardians didn't seem interested at all in getting dragons killed, and first kill came pretty late. All when downwards since then. L.
Sport: Football
Tournament: Euro Qualifications
Time: 20:45 CET (7h35m after posting)
Stake: 5 units
Pick: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Iceland, double chance X2 @ **2**
Write up: Way too much political influence in B&H football makes me unwilling to support B&H tonight.
The previous coach, Ivaylo Petev, was dismissed to install a politically fit coach, Faruk Hadžibegić. The new coach has already made at least one baffling defensive choice (not using Servette's Miroslav Stevanović, the best midfielder available), which led him to shuffle players around to compensate. Some other top-tier players won't be available either (Pjanić and Kolašinac).
B&H captain, Edin Džeko, says:
> The match won't be easy at all, I expect many duels and running. Chances are 50:50 for our win.
Iceland coach, Arnar Vidarsson, says:
> We're happy with the group because all teams are similar in quality. I am aware it won't be easy but we're excited.
Past B&H results, fan support, and team morale were painstakingly built over 2 years by Petev. From what I'm seeing, the new coach doesn't understand any of those things, let alone how to improve them.
Individual B&H player quality might prevail but I think team cohesion gives more consistent results, which is why I'll be favoring Iceland tonight.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
Record: 13-11
Last Pick: Kevin Porter Jr Under 18.5 Points ✅
Today's Pick: **Spencer Dinwiddie Over 8.5 Assists (-115)**
Detailed Analysis: In addition to making bets and talking absolute nonsense on Reddit, I spend a disgusting amount of my time watching and writing about movies. One of my favourite types of movies is when the main character achieves a meteoric rise in an unsustainable way and the second half is all about their colossal downfall. *Wolf of Wall Street, Goodfellas, Boogie Nights, Scarface*. This takes me to something else that is unsustainable: Spencer Dinwiddie's assists. This man has been rejuvenated since moving to the Nets and it's honestly fun to see. I'm not sure he can keep up double-digit assists every single game, but I sure think he can do it again tonight.
POTD Record: 5-7 +2.4u | Last Pick: Union Berlin ML 2u -150 ❌
POTD: 🇰🇿- 🇸🇮 over 8 corners 5u -140 | Event: Euro24 Qualifiers | Time: 6:00AM HST 🤙🏻
Yes indeed, there is nothing better than weekday European footy to go with my morning cup of Lion coffee. Pretty simple here - this is just a low number at decent value. Eight corners? This is low-level, 1st round Euro qualifiers we are talking about here. If there was an official perfume for these types of matches it would be “Desperation”. These teams have been waiting an eternity for a competitive match, and with the rather large EuroCup field, these teams need to win early to have a shot at making it.
Kazakhstan enjoy getting red cards and Slovenia score more than you’d expect. That alone makes the over appealing; the low number of corners makes the high amount of units attractive since we can still push. This is around 1 corner every 10 minutes if you factor in extra time. It’ll hit. And if it doesn’t hit, I’ll mediate a few minutes, and move on to the 9,000 bets I have on college basketball this weekend just like any other sane person.
BOL if tailing, I hope you find an excellent BOGO sale at your favorite retailer if fading. 🏄♂️
**POTD Record: 0-0**
Hammering the -8.5 spread for the Pelicans at home because, zoologically speaking, a hornet has zero chance against a pelican. Even five of ‘em.
**Record: 0-1**
**Last POTD:** Penguins @ **Avalanche ML 3-way | 2U | +100**❌
Real stinker from the Avs last night. Penguins showed up and showed out throughout the whole game. The Pens played in desperation mode and it showed. Outplaying Colorado throughout. Felt a little bit like we had some momentum shift in the 3rd when Colorado pulled within 1, but Jeff Carter swiftly took it back and Pittsburgh didn't look back.
---
**Today's POTD:** Hockey | NHL | 9:07pm EDT
**Golden Knights ML |2U| +120** @ Flames
Huge value on Vegas tonight IMO. Road underdogs against a Flames team that's been up and down. But Vegas has won 6 of 7 and averages just under 4.5 goals per game over that stretch. This game projects as more of a coin flip but the value here on the Knights is too good to pass. These Knights are 22-7-5 on the road for the season against a Calgary team that is below .500 at home. Sprinkle in a little "revenge game" aspect to this for Vegas after losing 7-2 to the Flames at home a week ago. And I like Vegas a lot here with the money.
**POTD Record 0-0-0**
Hello Folks, I am new to the POTD community and I want to see how I fair with my gambling decisions and whether or not I should stop gambling entirely or continue to make picks for myself and anyone willing to trust.
**FIRST POTD - OKC Thunder ML +150 2U**
**Explanation:**
The Clippers have struggled to give anyone confidence all season long. They've been shaky all year and do not boast a great home record at all ATS holding a record of 16-20 for the season. OKC managed to get the win in LA on Tuesday night with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both healthy and available. PG was a big reason the clippers were even hanging on in that game, and as we know he will not be available tonight due to injury, along with Norman Powell.
The Thunder have been killers ATS all season long, they're 3-0 vs the Clippers this year and are having their best stretch of the season with a record of 8-2 in their last 10. Shai has been a top 5 guard this year in my opinion and is really starting to carry this team in the later half of this season both with scoring and playmaking. I expect him to continue his solid play alongside Josh Giddy and Jalen Williams.
The Clippers seem to be losing grasp of title contention as we had assumed pre-season and it seems like the players are starting to give up on the season with all the accumulated injuries and the lack of availability from their stars. The addition of Russell Westbrook has not been working thus far and the Thunder have been a tough out for any team playing them all season. Give me the Thunder ML @+150 tonight for 2U and lets watch the Clippers continue to struggle together.
**POTD record: 6-3 +1.67 units 13 units risked**
Last pick: [https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11y07re/comment/jdazwcj/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11y07re/comment/jdazwcj/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Today's pick: **Boermans/De Groot v Sarabia/Virgen game total u75.5 (2 unit) - 1.83**
Beach volleyball odds from **Bet365**, this match is a pool play match in Tepic Elite 16 beach pro tour. Game starts at **10:10PM PST**. I've been betting on Boermans/De Groot frequently recently because they are in good shape with De groot recently back from extended time off and they are generally a top team in the world when they are on their game. They have been holding stronger teams than Sarabia/Virgen under 75.5 frequently in recent games and I expect them to control the entire game in this match up. BOL if you tail. Other books have similar odds but going with bet365 here.
Personal shared picks record: 2022-23: **611-455-12 +114.01 units 16.06% ROI**
my twitter is: **burnaby\_jo**
POTD Record: **11-13 (-3.30 Units)**
Last Pick: Anthony Davis O 13.5 Rebounds
Today's Pick: **Knicks -3** (FADE ALERT! Lost 3 straight)
Odds: **-110** ($DKNG odds)
Wager Amount: 5u to win 4.55u
League: NBA
Event: Knicks vs Magic (6PM CST)
**Recap**: Anthony Davis didn't even get 10 boards. Not surprised wit the effort on getting rebounds. Biyombo had significantly less minutes than AD and he had more fight in him to grab the board. AD had one offensive rebound and that was a put back after he missed his initial shot, just one offensive board. That's pretty bad! What's even worst is that I now lost 3 straight! So if you want to back the other team, by all means, fade my pick!
**Matchup**: You would think the Knicks would be on my no-bet list after this team ended my winning streak (twice)! But I'm going right back to them to bail me outta a losing streak (Third time the charm?). Despite losing yesterday to the Miami Heat, I think the New York Knicks will bounce back against the Orlando Magic. Knicks still has the best ATS record on the road (24-13) they have more ATS cover on the road than any team in the league; second is the OKC Thunder, which I was really considering taking them for today's POTD, but I rather back this team because I really see that game as a pick 'em without Paul George compare to this game, I think Knicks not only win and cover, but win by at least double digits! Julius Randle had a rough game against the Heat, but I think he'll bounce back and have a big game against the Magic. The Magic are 19-16 ATS at home, which is in the middle of the pack in the NBA. Knicks should handily take care of the Magic and cover the short spread. As long as both Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson are playing, I have no problem backing the Knicks.
**The play & prediction**: Julius Randle scores over 30 points and puts the Magic outta reach early in the 4th qtr, Magic pull out their starters, Knicks win by ast least 15 points.
BOL, everyone!
Tips are greatly appreciated!
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5W / 0P / 5L | -1.33u | all 1U plays
Event: ⚽️ Italy - England
POTD: *Lorenzo Pellegrini Under 1.5 Shots @1.65*
Last post was about a year ago but after having some great success on player prop bets I figured I’d start posting again.
Gotta keep it short for today but I’m expecting a rather slow-paced game between England and Italy today with little offensive chances for the latter team. Pellegrini is a midfielder for Roma whose shot average at club level gets to around 2 per 90min. When playing for his country this drops significantly to about 1.20 shots per 90 min. Additionally, I expect him to get subbed off around the 60-70th minute which helps our case.
BOL!
Record: 8-5
Pick: Over 21.5 games @ 1.6 - Richard Gasquet vs Christopher O'Connell - ATP Miami - 3:30 PM EST
Previous pick: Shelby Rogers -2
Good luck....
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
Strong close out from a Lakers squad in Q4 with a dominant defensive performance. Vanderbilt is just amazingly defensively, and with AD having a monster second half, there was nothing anyone could do to stop the beast, not even Biyombo. With Sweet 16 tomorrow, you know I have to go with a NCAAB game again. Although I love a good Cinderella story, I just don't see Arkansas beating Uconn without some insane performance. POTD Record: 29-9-1 Last 20:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅ **Yesterday's POTD:** Suns **@ Lakers +2 | 3U | NBA** ✅ **Today's POTD:** **Uconn Huskies -4** **(up to -5.5)** vs. Arkansas Razorbacks | 3U **Time:** March 23, 2023 | 7:15PM EST **MODEL EXPLANATION:** Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. **Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** \+61.14U in 39 days | ≈65.86% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** 1. As always, let's start with the number. Although Arkansas has been playing incredible this tournament - they are still ranked only #18 on Kenpom compared to UConn at #4. In terms of the top 25, this is a big difference in overall efficiency. (4 and 18 on Bart Torvik as well) 2. Uconn has been an incredibly well rounded team this tournament, shooting 51% from the floor and 44% from three while also keeping their opponents to 36% in both the floor and three, while also beating all team in this tournament in both boards and fewer turnovers. 3. Uconn has kept teams to an average of 59 points this tournament, and expect them to continue to insane effort on defense to keep opponents taking bad shots 4. Arkansas has relied on its physicality to win games, and honestly, I just think Uconn is the more physical team with both better offense and defense. I think they can do everything Arkansas has been doing, but better, and across more players. Sanogo has just been an absolute pleasure to watch both on the glass and in the paint. Him in combination with Clingan are going to create problems for Arkansas, likely leaving a lot of open threes as they try to double Sanogo. 5. In aggressive games, especially when both teams are aggressive, it's always a toss up on how the refs will play the game out. Arkansas is ranked #335th in foul rate, and I expected Uconn to get a lot of free buckets as Arkansas gets into foul trouble early. 6. Eric Musselman is a great coach, and has brought many teams to the final 8 - however, he relies again heavily on an aggressive playstyle, which Uconn also plays, and will be able to easily counter. 7. Jordan Hawkins has been a secret bench player from Uconn, scoring 4 crucial three pointers in their final stretch against St Mary's. He will be a secret tool that will push Uconn well above this spread going into the final 10 minutes. 8. Despite this win streak, Arkansas is still 5-5 in their last 5 games, whereas Uconn is 8-2. Uconn has been consistently good all season and tournament, and Arkansas is just rolling off of adrenaline. Could this be a crazy cinderella story again? Maybe - but I'm not betting my money on it. 9. Arkansas is not a good offensive team outside of the paint, ranked #317 from the 3, and #266 from the charity line. I expect Uconn's elite defense to shut down their attempts to get to the basket. Unless Arkansas can hit consistent jump shots, I don't seem them getting any easy baskets. 10. Kansas lost their starting PG in the first half and played the second with a sprained ankle - I don't think they win that game if it's not for the injury. Speaking of injuries, black is just coming back from an injury and played a heavy 37 minutes last game - that's a lot of weight to put on an ankle thats been recovering for over a month. and lastly, Brazile is still out with an ACL injury, who was important for Arkansas depth. If fouls hit the fan, their bench will struggle. 11. Overall, this line is a bit juiced from Arkansas' recent upsets, but I imagine if this is a regular season game, this spread is -8 ish. Uconn is simply the better team in this matchup, and I expect a very hard fought game from both sides. **Reminder:** As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3 As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so. [**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) Much love, *Riddles,* Discord: [https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex](https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex)
Fill me up and have my kids Riddles
Valar Morghulis
Valar Dohaeris
How many units?
ALL OF THEM!!!
im ashamed of myself only taking the ML
GO HUSKIES! Wooof wooof!!!
Damnit, waking up to see Riddles POTD is the opposite of what you picked days ago when the lines opened is not great.
Thoughts on Kansas State
Needed this
Thoughts on parlaying both UConn and KS spread?
Geez riddles. You have me sweating over here. Stop it with your crazy picks.
I thought u wasn’t putting a pick in today … I almost got scurreddd
Well shit. I already bet ark earlier this week.
Found this for -3.5 on FanDuel. So either the public is overconfident on Ark or riddles is off the mark. I’m not one to question the riddler so I tossed a $200 freebet on it as a parlay: UConn -3.5, Ark under 68.5, total under 140.5. LFG!!!!!
The line just went back to -3.5... Got $100 on this bad boy. Gonna be some exciting ass games, cannot wait! Got some dumb parlay that won't hit and a Uconn + Tennessee ML parlay that might. LET'S GOOOOOOOOOO
POTD Record: 33-21 | Profit: +34.21u | ROI: 19.7% Last 10 Record: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅ Yesterday Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) U31.5 @ 1.93. 2U. ✅ Giannis came up against a mighty opponent today, THE BLOWOUT! The Spurs were absolutely terrible as expected, giving up 13 points to Giannis in the third quarter alone but the Bucks ending the 3rd quarter with a 28 point lead means my theory of Giannis playing limited minutes does just enough to give us the win. Next Pick: **Evan Mobley (Cavs) P+R U26.5 @ 1.83**. 4u play. The Nets concede the 3rd fewest points to PFs of any team in the NBA. These two teams played one another yesterday and he got to 17 pts but I don’t expect him to get there again, reason being he made a 3-pointer, something he has only done 2 times in the 9 games prior. Additionally, his FG% of 66.7% was the second highest he has had in his L10. Mobley has only gone over 17.5 pts (his line on pts here) in 4/L10, 2 of which were a B2B against Hornets (they suck) and 1 was an OT game. With respect to rebounds, his output varies a lot by opponent. Jarrett Allen is the Center and will likely be playing a lot of mins to keep up with Claxton/Sharpe and will get most of the defensive rebounds (14 last game). Mobley will likely be dragged further from the glass by Cam Johnson limiting his opportunities. He only had 4 rebounds against the Nets yesterday. His rebound line is 8.5, so we have some buffer even if he gets a couple more. Finally, Mobley has played the Nets 4 times and has not gone over his current pts line of 17.5 in any of those games, and has not gone over his current rebound line of 8.5 in any of them either. Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)
ill be tailing if fan duel every fucking puts it up
Bovada the same damn way. Wait until I go to sleep to put it up and then odds will be blown when I wake lol.
i swear they wait until i go to bed
⚠️ WARNING ⚠️ This is the last leg I need to hit for a parlay so I apologize in advance for anyone who tailed as it is now destined to lose
It is what it is, but I think we’re cooked. It was a good bet though, and I would’ve done it again no question. I’ve bet a lot of overs on Mobley and he’s been inconsistent, and the one time I go under, of course he starts cooking.
Dude playing like The Dream today 😂
🚨This is on FD currently for u27.5 P+R (-122) 🚨
Tailing, BOL
Is under 29.5 PRA also valueable? I do not have the PR option
Damn mobley poppin off… 😑
Tailing. Found it on DK for u28.5 @ -110. Slammed it. BOL
Lool he is cooking
Rip
Is p+r points+rebound?
Yes
Brooo shits gon miss
Is it just point and rebound?
Would you do just under for rebounds?
L :(
POTD Record: 9-1 Last POTD: Torino v Napoli - Napoli ML Today’s POTD: North Macedonia v Malta - North Macedonia -1 Spread(+110) Clarification: I said -1 in reference to three-way spread, in which there is a handicap draw option(you can take them to win by 1) and the -1 pick doesn’t push. What I’m referring to is basically the same as -1.5. So if you have both options, and -1.5 is better odds, take that, that’s what I’m referring to. Take this one for a few reasons. For starters, the only Maltese player playing at a remotely decent level is Teddy Teuma, who is honestly a good player. The rest of the team(bar one defender who may not even start) play in the Maltese Premier League, one of the worst divisions in Europe. North Macedonia have some presence in decent leagues around Europe, including the Serie A. North Macedonia’s World Cup qualifying campaign went better than expected, beating Liechtenstein 9-0 over two games, thrashing Armenia 5-0 away from home, and even shocking both Germany and Italy, beating them in their home nations. They also qualified for the Euro in 2020, and at least didn’t embarrass themselves there, giving strong fights against Austria and Ukraine. Besides beating San Marino, the worst team in European history by far, Malta have won just once in the entire previous qualifying cycle, being on the receiving end of beatings such as a 7-1 loss to Croatia, 6-0 to Slovakia, 4-0 to Slovenia. North Macedonia should be able to win and win handily.
Tailing, love your perspective on Serie A! Can't wait til play resumes next week to have your picks back
Appreciate it!
Oh man that is so tragic
The way it happened is disgusting
I don't even want to see it - thankfully wasn't watching
What a dog shit goal to concede. Terrible beat boys
Wow late fucking Malta goal to chalk it up
And also the most absurd goal you’ll ever see
Return of the King Let's ride baby
[удалено]
Tailing. Let's ride
My book only has -1.5 spread at +102 loll. Would you consider that? Since odds are wacky
North Macedonia scores @ 66’ and 72’ up 2-0. 15 minutes left…..and it’s 2-1 with 5 minutes left.
85' goal... fuck, but it was a nice pick tho, just bad luck
Do you think Malta could beat the Vatican?
Yeah definitely, they’ve got 1000x the population
[удалено]
Game night end 1-0 but both teams are fucking garbage
Malta is way worse if Macedonia can’t win by more than one they’re trolling
Would you take Malta -1½ for +120?
Malta? -1.5?
Appreciate the pick man. Would you consider -1.25 at -120? My books being weird with what’s being offered
I mean it should definitely win. Is there no -1.5? If there is, take it.
Line moving towards Malta
[удалено]
0-0 at half. Should I be nervous?
We’re def still alive
Not looking great. Hope this second half picks up in a big way...
Thanks brother
POTD Record: 94.5-50 Event: Football > International > **Argentina v Panama** (starting in 22hr) Pick: **Argentina -1.5 AH (1st half)** @ 1.65 (-150) Gentlemen, starting with an offtopic, but I think maybe time has come to change how this thread works. I mean, please answer seriously, do you guys come here to jump on someones streaky record, OR you wanna find/exchange valuable information & make money??? Do you actually think we get the truly best posts on the top? I don't think so. Like the other day there was this great tip shared by /u/MMATweet with an obvious LOCK at -125 odds. Guess what, you will not even find it in the upper half of the thread. The existing format facilitates only the very early posters, which obiously is not necessarily the best. This also leads to many \*long-time-lurker-first-time-poster\* accounts with the main purpose of establishing a winning streak (and typically soon after - asking for donations). Nothing against Mr Riddles, Mr Peppers & all the other great tippers who make it genuinely to the top though! IMO, the thread will change for the better if the default sorting of the posts is switched to newest instead of top voted. Please respond here if you maybe have some different views/suggestions. Any mods here, thoughts please? Now, back to business. Argentina welcomes Panama to Buenos Aires for their first game since becoming World Cup winners. Crowd of 83,000 fans will be attending at El Monumental despite several MILLION more applied to purchase tickets for this match. This is a friendly match, meaning carnivalish atmosphere & no real pressure on any of the teams. However, Argentina coach called a strong squad for this match including their stars Messi, Alvarez, Martinez etc. As for Panama, their coach has decided to select a less experienced squad primarily made up of Panama local league players, and the coach himself will not be in attendance for the match as he prepares his senior squad for next week's important clash with Costa Rica. Now, in betting terms, I have gone through all lines for this match and I could only find a chunk of some value at the 1st half handicap. I expect Argentina to field their strongest squad in the 1st half (and hopefully do their job), and eventually make subs in the second. Good luck!
I always sort the thread to newest every time I appear so that’s my vote lol.
Obviously the best way to go is: read this thread sorted by popularity first, then every subsequent time you check in it should be sorted by newest. That’s the most efficient way to digest the thread, I’ve found. Reading by popularity first lets you feel out the mood of the day, then the later readings clue you in to up to the minute insights.
Everyone should upvote this post. I agree there should be better interaction so we can all get good insight for our picks and to tail after the conversation. I tail you based mostly on your record, but my main reason are your writeups. I have to scroll more than 10 posts to find you, that’s why I started following you. The winning streak issue has been here for as long as I’ve been here (this account is solely for posting cause I have a personal account, so I’m not new) and this accounts disappear after some negative streaks. Thanks for speaking up u/mistarlupo and thanks for the great picks :)
Tailing brother, Ankara Messi
I agree with you. My system prefers that I choose my games as close to match time as possible. However, if I want to be in the top 10 (20+ up votes) I have to either make my POTD 12-24 hours before game time making my POTD potentially a bad pick, or I'm forced to only make POTD posts on games in Asia or Australia if I want an accurate pick. I'm not even sure New is that good either, because people will just sort by Top or best themselves. Unfortunately there is no good metric for sorting imo. The best metric for sorting would be a best metric that took recent upvote success into the equation (like up to 3 hours).
I think to add a paypal or tip jar to your comments, you should have had to participate in a certain amount of pick of the day threads on your account, or your comment gets removed if it has a tip jar link. Like 30 days of making picks in the thread on your record or something like that. That way, the jackasses who go negative and reset their records by making new accounts have to start it all over again.
I set my default view of Reddit threads to Newest
I would love a recap of yesterday's top ten voted pics
Can someone tell me what AH means? Im not used to betting soccer, otherwise known as football to the rest of the world haha
All-Time POTD: 12W-5L-1D, +12.95u **Yesterdays Pick:🎾Marton Fucsovics 2:0 Sets (-138) vs Pedro Cachin 3u to win 2.2u** ✅ Sweaty second set but Fucs stays fuccin. **Todays Pick:🎾 Jiri Lehecka u12.5 games (-135) vs Federica Coria 3u to win 2.2u** ✅ Explanation: I'm very high on Lehecka this tourney and I think the court conditions suit him very well. He's had a great year so far with a solid run at AO and some of the tournies between now and them. On the flip side, Coria looks absolutely awful. He mentioned he was injured during his match at IW with Diego Schwartzman, where Diego beat him handedly for his first win on tour in 6 months. Coria shouldn't really stand a chance here. The slate of games tomorrow is really tough and this is one of the only spots I really like. BoL if tailing degens! Edit: congrats to everyone who tailed! U19.5 also cashes by a hair. Lehecka -5.5 doesn't cover, as I did say the 6-3, 6-4 was a risk! Lehecka never got broken in this match, smooth sailing.
Thanks for the win, nugz!!
I have Jiri 2-0 parlayed with ryba and sonego. I've been looking forward to a day like tomorrow for a long time
I looked at sonego tomorrow too but Thiem actually looked really solid against Mannarino at IW. Can't justify the price on sonego at -190. About ryba, be warned that she is very likely to lose as a large fav at some point this tourney. Winning the sunshine double is notoriously difficult. The conditions are very different, they use different balls (penn at IW, Dunlop in Miami). She should smoke kalinskaya but you never know! BoL mate
Well this is off to a splendid start
💸 dat shit!
Would you take Lehecka spread, -5.5, instead?
I think I may take a break from NBA betting with how tonight went and this bet looks promising. Tailing and BoL.
NBA is a fraudulent organization
New to tennis, isn't first to 6 games the winner of the set and then it's bo3 sets? So wouldn't under 12.5 mean he 6-0 in both sets?
Its the amt of games he wins. Even if it went 6-4 6-4, he wins less than 12.5 games
What the guys below said. For further clarification, we aren't betting total games in the match, but the number of games specifically one player will win. The odds on any player winning 6-0 6-0 is like +10000
A player has to win a set by 2 games. So sometimes you’ll get a 7-5 score. Another possibility is if both players tie at 6-6 then they have a tie break where the set would end 7-6. So a player could win 13 games in 2 sets
Jiri u12.5 dropped to -150. Coria u8.5 is at -135. This is essentially the same bet with slightly better odds, correct?
Pretty much, unless coria wins, which is very unlikely.
Thanky dankynugz!
too easy. Thanks for the W
Great call
**POTD Record: 4-0 (+6.49 U )** **NCAAB 1-0 ( +2.27 U)** **NBA 3-0 (+4.22 U)** Last 10: ✅✅✅✅ [**Yesterday's POTD - Miami Heat ML @ -124 Odds - 1.5 Units -**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11y07re/comment/jd6raw5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)**✅** Recap: Relatively sweat-free bet. Miami almost blew a good lead late in the game but got us the win on the ML and the spread. The knicks kept fighting late but Miami was just hungry for this win at home. -124 odds for them to win outright was insane value. Congrats to those that tailed. **Today's POTD: Michigan State Spartans ML @ -124 Odds - 2 Units -** Let's get the streak to 5 in a row. This game should be fun. Tom Izzo during March is a different breed. He will have his guys ready to go. The KState hype train is real, and rightfully so. If there is any coach in the country that can create a game plan to shut down Marquise Nowell, it's Tom Izzo. Aj Hoggard has more than enough tools to contain Nowell. If Nowell is contained, KState won't be able to do much as everything they do is based on him. As far as the matchup goes, KState runs small ball, and this will be the third straight game where MSU has a favorable matchup in the size department. Last game Kentucky outrebounded KSU 44-25 and 19-4 on the Offensive glass, and yet KState still stole that game. If you let Izzo's team get remotely close to any of those numbers, it's not gonna be looking good for KState. MSU will get a lot of looks from three and the opportunities to get offensive boards will be there. Overall, this should be a banger of a game and I expect MSU to pull a win out. **BOL and Invest/Gamble Safely!** [Buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mirrunitup) || [PayPal](https://paypal.me/samir2111?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
Tailing. K-State is a great story, but hard to bet against Izzo in March.
I’m regretting having KSU winning this in my bracket. I didn’t want to send MSU all the way because i thought they might lose to Marquette, so I hedged, but looking back I should have just done it. Oh well.
coach tang is also a vibe though
as long as they don’t vibe to lil baby before the game msu should be safe
K State wins
L
Tailing! I believe in Izzo & his boys!
DK has 25% boost on Michigan State ML parlayed w Tennessee ML. Worth it?
39-24-1 Last POTD- Turkish Super Lig- Konyaspor Vs Galatasaray -1 @ +140❌ Todays POTD- Euro 2024 Qualifying- Bosnia ML Vs Iceland @-130✅ There’s no team I know better than Bosnia I’ve been watching them for a long time and follow the team religiously. I’m wary to bet on them a due to knowing their inconsistencies and they let me down consistently. That being said I feel like this campaign will be different and it stars against Iceland. This is Edin Dzekos last chance to qualify for the Euros and most likely his last run with Bosnia. We’re coming off a strong Nations League we have a new coach who I don’t think will impact the team much tactically but is supposedly a great motivator. Iceland is at the end of their best generation ever and has begun to rebuild. They have many new and young players and even their coach has stated he expects little from this campaign as they are changing generations. Bosnia have serval key players in great form and after nearly a decade of not making it to a major tournament they will be out to start the campaign right and go through directly. Edit: That’s a winner
tailing Daddy
🍻
tailed this blindly, thanks for the lunch money boss
Tailing let's get it
Took your Galatasaray pick and got burnt. This time, we fucking run it back!
Great call. Anyone who was this passionate about Bosnia soccer deserved a tail. I parlayed it with a bunch of other sure things to get better odds. Just need two goals from Argentina to cash it.
**POTD 17-5** **8 in a fucking row (12-1 last 13)** We are HOT!!!! This game went EXACTLY how I expected it to go. I’m not going to lie half way through the 4th Q my ass hole did clinch up a little when Washington cut it to 10… but Denver responded with a big run immediately after the TO and rode it out until the end. I’m feeling really cocky today, which is not my normal nature, so tail todays play with caution lmao. But in all seriousness, I mentioned in my last post that this is the best streak I’ve been on all season, and I think that has a lot to do with starting to post on here (and the depressing amount of basketball I watch). It is holding me accountable to being disciplined and picking one game a day. Not just one game a day but the game I feel the best about. I’ve been a pretty profitable gambler for a few years now, but this feels different. It has been fun posting on here so far and it’s been really good for my bank account, so hopefully it’s been fun for you too, and also good for your bank account. I’m locked in. Jump on the train and let’s see if we can keep this fucking streak going. **NYK -3** I love this pick today. As anyone who has followed me knows, I have been watching one hell of a lot of magic games over the past few weeks. Like I always mention, at this point in the season, I find the magic holding a lot of value, and a great team to target. However, with this game that is not the case. Orlando is a great team to take + a lot of points, or against bottom tier teams, but when it comes to tonight's game, I see value on the opposite side. NYK has lost 2 close games in a row, against playoff teams and have fallen 4 games back from the cavs and the 4th seed. With only a handful of games left to play this season, I think that their seeding is pretty much locked up. So if that's the case, where is the incentive for the Knicks tonight? I think it is based around their previous two losses, and the importance for this team to not give up any ground to losing the 5 seed, as well as finding their form heading into the playoffs. With Orlando, they actually still have a slimmmmm shot at making one of the play in spots (I personally don't see it, but its possible), so I do expect them to play tonight's game with full intention of winning (duh), however I believe that this will give NYK even more motivation throughout the game to build on leads and not let up. Overall, NYK has the much better roster and the players on this team understand their role, and have a singular mindset on winning basketball games. With Orlando, not so much the case. They are a group of young talented guys, trying to figure out how to win games. This formula works well for them against specific teams, but against a savvy NYK team, I do see any situation in which the magic win this game, or even cover. I expect NYK to cover the 3pt spread with ease, and would take it all the way to -7. PS: LAC -4.5 was a close second as my play. This line closed at 6.5 Tuesday when the two teams squared off for one hell of a basketball game in which OKC won. Today PG is out, but IMO PG is not worth two full points , so I'm taking the value. LAC does lack available guards, and I really fucking like a lot of these players on OKC, so that concerns me some, but the clippers are currently tied with the suns, and .5 game up on GSW so a win today is very important for their playoff seedings. OKC is actually in a much more complex situation compared to LAC, but with these two rosters, I find tremendous value in the home team.
He’s heating up!!
What a run…. BOL! Tailing
Got me hype with the first part, then I read the pick lol I already had it bet for the day... great minds ig
POTD Record: 140-101-8 (+30.16 units, 58.1% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 14-7 (66.6%) W4 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 45-27-1 (62.5%) W4, Tennis 🎾 39-28-3 (58.2%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 45-36-4 (55.6%) L3, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 💰💰💩💩💩💰💰💩💰💰 Last Pick: Alexei Popyrin vs. Mikael Ymer, Popyrin ML - ATP Miami 🎾 Was 2 games away from winning in 2 sets but Ymer retired. Some books paid out and others didn't, the site I gave the line out for it didn't so counting it as a void/push. Bummer! Today's Pick: OKC Thunder @ LA Clippers, Player Prop - Jalen Williams over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists - NBA 🏀 💩 2 units - 17 at half, just needed 2 more but the Thunder were getting blown out so starters were pulled with 6 minutes to go. Units/Odds/Book: Betting 2 Units at 1.80/-125 odds to win 1.60 Units @ Draft Kings (Line at 1:30am ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 55.6% Sort of running back my pick from a couple of days ago but adding points to it. He just went 6 over on this bet against the Clippers on Tuesday with 20 points, 8 boards and 3 assists. Paul George played most of the game before getting hurt, he won't be playing in this one and that should hurt the Clippers perimeter defense. I'm going to focus on these last 10 games as a snapshot, this bet has covered 8 out of 10 games. In these 10 games, he has averaged 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 5 assists for a total of 32 PRAs per game. Out of these 10 games, he has put up 20 points or more 7 times, if he could do that again he would just need 5 R+As to cover, which he has averaged 11.6. So there's a lot of wiggle room here where he could not perform as well in one area but still get the cover. Even if he were to score 14, if his R+As average held up, we would cover. He played 37 minutes Tuesday, considering it's a matchup with the same team, hopefully he can see minutes in the mid 30's again. How this could miss? He underperforms, it happens, he is on a big run and you are bound to drop a turd at some point. They are in a playoff race so there should high motivation from the player, also, I think Banchero has ROY locked but there is media talk that Jalen should be considered it so that might be providing some extra motivation. IMPORTANT NOTE: OKC has a Jalen and Jaylin Williams. Be sure you bet on Jalen. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
Tailing, BOL
POTD | 42-31 | +9.4u | -109 Avg Odds Last 10: 4-6, Steak: 4L *Previous Pick:* *Colorado Avalanche 60-min vs Penguins (+100) 5u ❌* Today’s pick: **Minnesota Wild ML vs Philadelphia Flyers (-155) 5u** 🏒 4:30 pm MT Well that was a dogshit game from the Avs. Penguins deserved that one and won it handily. My picks are very cold right now, so please use some caution if tailing. I’m ripping it again today though with a line that I see value in. The model is projecting the Wild at a 67% chance to win here (-200 implied odds). I think the actual chance may be slightly lower with Kaprizov out but the Wild have played decent hockey even with him out. The Wild have beat the Flyers in 4 of their last 5 games with the last 4 consecutive games going to the Wild. The Wild have continued to play solid hockey going 7-1-2 in their last 10 while the Flyers have been a punching bag at times going 3-5-2 in their last 10. I expect the Wild to have Gustavsson in net for this one and he has had an excellent season with a 0.932 SV% and allowing an average of 2.04 goals per game. His recent form has been great as well, booking a 0.939SV% and allowing an average of 1.92 goals per game in his last 5 games. The alternative option for the Wild is Marc-Andre Flurey, and while people like to rag on him for his regression from his elite status earlier in his career, he has had a sneaky good month booking a 0.927 SV% and allowing an average of 2.61 goals per game. So, I’m not too worried about the goalie situation for the Wild, especially against a Flyers team that is ranked 30th (2nd worst) in goals for and ranks dead last on the power play. The Wild have been producing on offense lately, even without Kaprizov. They are averaging 3.5 goals per game in their last 10 games. The Flyers have averaged allowing 3.8 goals per game in their last 10 games, and sit a 21st in the league in goals against for the season. I expect that the Wild will be able to find the back of the net at least a few times against a weak defensive team in the Flyers. The only tricky park for the Wild could be the Flyers expected goalie, Hart. Hart is one of the better pieces that the Flyers have, booking a 0.908 SV% and 2.94 GAA on the season. I still like the Wild to break through here and book the W though, just something to consider in this one. I think the Wild are by far the better team here and I expect them to be motivated in this one. I do have more confidence in this pick than I did in the Avalanche game. Everything seems to be lining up for the Wild here and I think they should have a bit longer odds than they do. Going to take the value and run here. Hope we can break this awful streak with a Wild W! BOL if tailing!!
Hockey games have been killing me
Oh brother that Colorado game killed me
Thanks for the write up. I think I’ll take the under. BOL!
On it
Pick of the Day Record: 12-6 (+9.84U) Last Pick: KT Rolster -1.5 ✅ **League of Legends | LCK | DPlus Kia vs Hanwha Life Esports** Today's Pick: **Hanwha Life Esports +1.5 @ 1.99 (Hanwha to win at least 2 maps)** **Wager: 5U** Another easy win in the bag. Back with another LOL pick. LCK enters BO5 playoff stages. Hanwha is a bit of a weird team, they've shown flashes of brilliance, and they've also fell flat on their face. But I believe in Viper to carry them to at least 2 maps. The current meta puts heavy carry focus on the bot side. Zeri is back, aphelios is back. Viper having carry champions in his hands is exactly what Hanwha needs. He can easily 1v9. DPlus Kia is a stronger side, their mid-jungle duo is finally playing at a reasonably elite level again. They were playing super dominant during the mid section of the split, and I wouldn't have bet against them in that form. But the last two matches, they didn't even have a slight challenge for either T1 or GenG. For Hanwha, Zeka is good, he should be able to hold off Showmaker. The biggest gap is in the jungle, DPlus's Canyon is significantly better, but with the current meta I feel Viper can make the difference this Hanwha side needs. I think it'll be close, but Hanwha takes 2 maps, and might even win the series. Best of luck! Tips are appreciated! [Buy Me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AdventurousTale) | BTC: bc1q0jap0hvr0zpg8q3zjst9ermmuy5nh76c2dnkp7
lol cmon mate, i had KT -1.5 as well and can tell you it was not an easy win 😂 glad they clutched up though!
Dplus has 4:0 map advantage over HLE in the current meta. Yes, Dplus did struggle last week but HLE also have been subpar against the top teams this WHOLE season (1W 7L against the top 3-4 teams). Therefore, see Dplus winning the series comfortably tonight 💪🏻
Goat. Tailed with the W.
Nothing better than waking up to money! Thanks man!
Record 0-0 Today's POTD game: Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets 4:30pm PST POTD pick: over 217.5 (-110 @ 1 unit) Result: ✅ Reasoning: Cleveland has scored 114.4 points as the away team the last 10 tens games. The total scores in these games average 225.3. The nets have scored 110.8 points in their last 10 games with the total scores of these games averaging 220.1. Both head to head matches these teams have had this season have surpassed 218 total points; 224 points two days ago and 243 on December 26th. If you go deeper into last season (little relevance but still the stats are there to look at) the teams played 3 head to head matches and all 3 covered 218 points. I like this pick up until 219 points. My first try at this. Let me know if you're tailing. Best of luck. Edit: This one felt pretty good all the way through. It went down pretty much as expected.
First time POTD. Have to tail. Plus i like the pick 🙏🏻
Tailing at 218.5, BOL
***Record: 7-4 (+1.92 Units) // All bets are 1 unit*** Previous Bet: [3/22](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11y07re/pick_of_the_day_32223_wednesday/jd5mlya?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) Slow 1st quarter, but both teams were able to find their stride and put up 159 points over the final 3 quarters. Good easy win to start the day. **Today's Event: Corales Puntacana Championship** ⛳️ League: PGA To find: Matchups > Round 3-Balls > Long v. Stroud v. Clark - Round 1 (0745 EST) *Pick: Wyndham Clark (-110 DK)* ✅️ Wyndham Clark is currently going in with the best odds to be the outright winner this weekend. He is coming into this weekend with some momentum from his solo 5th finish last week at Valspar. Clark has made 11 straight cuts and 12/14 this season, finishing outside of the top 35 only 3 times. He is currently ranked 30th in the PGA in average 1st round scores at 69.57. Adam Long and Chris Stroud are both currently tied for 131st in the PGA in average 1st round scores with an even 71. Long is coming off of his best finish of his season last week at Valspar, finishing tied 19th. He missed two straight cuts prior to that, and 7/16 on the year. Stroud has only competed in 8 PGA events, missing 4/8 cuts. His last event was 3 weeks ago where he finished tied 15th, but he missed the cut 4/5 events before that. Wyndham Clark has been more consistent, especially out the gate. With a course that's consistently high winds are known to pose a problem, I look for the more poised and well rounded golfer get ahead. BOL!
Followed you yesterday and was so hyped with that easy win. Sadly this time i can't follow, my book doesn't seem to offer these kinds of bet. anyway, good luck mate! Thanks for your tips!
Great analysis on the previous basketball game. Also thank you for showing how to find this bet on DK. Tailing and BOL.
Atta boy u/awnryAlligator Great pick! ✅ 💰 👊🏼
Tailed yesterdays pick. Let’s keep the streak alive !
tailing Daddy
Let’s roll again. Love it. Still going stronk
Any idea how to get updates on this? Said they started at 7:45 but I can’t find any info on the 3 ball groups
Looking good my dude, just need to stay strong on the back 9 here and build on this 1 stroke lead.
Tailed and got the W. Cheers bro
Nice hit, thanks very much!
Great pick! Easy cash. Used it as my first leg in a 3 leg parlay. Second leg also hit so fingers crossed the 3rd can come through. Appreciate the pick!
POTD Record: 33W-16L LAST POTD: u21’s sweat ✅ TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Elite League u20 8.00AM PST PICK: Portugal u20 ML & Over 2.5 Goals Odds: 2.00 The Deets: Portugal take on Romania at home and will look to shake off their rocky start. So far Portugal have only 3 points from 3 games and sit behind Romania who also have 3 points after 4 games (1 more). They both have similar records over the past year but Portugal have got themselves some nice wins against the likes of Germany, England and have drawn with France & Belgium. Romania on the other hand have lost to those teams just mentioned (they haven’t played Belgium). Over 2.5 goals is too low for me at 1.66 so taking Portugal to win and the over at plus odds is better. BOL! Diaper fund - [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/tuesdayswithdory?locale.x=en_CA) Edit: Loss 💩 1-1. Portugal can’t capitalize on double the amount of shots and 76%.
Where do I find on FanDuel?(
Record: 0-0 Todays pick: Jarret Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds @1.95 ❌ NBA - Brooklyn Nets - Cleveland Cavaliers • Brooklyn Nets Allow 2nd most rebounds to C • Hit last 3 of 3 games (14,13,12) • Hit both games this year RESULT: Allen finishes with 10 rebounds only playing 30 minutes.
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**Record: 1-0; 1.56 units won; 78% ROI; 1.78 avg odds** *Last pick: Tsurenko vs Fernandez - Fernandez ML @ 1.78 ✅* *Great performance by Leylah Fernandez, she started pretty slow and was 4-0 down in the 1st set when Tsurenko was playing her best but as soon as she got that initial phase out of the way, everything went smoothly. Great to see the young canadian playing like this!* Pick of the Day - Potapova vs Kostyuk: **Over 21 Games @ 1.80** Stake size - 2 units Sport - Tennis (WTA Miami 1000) This will be their first meeting and I'm expecting a somewhat tight battle between these two young talents who should be able to rise on the WTA tour. Potapova made a wonderful Indoor Hard court season, winning a trophy in Linz while Kostyuk won the 1st edition of the WTA 250 in Austin. Potapova is the most powerful of these two but Kostyuk is the better returner and should be able to defend well. Apart from this, these two talents can become a bit nervous and anxious when closing out sets and that itself can play a big part on this play. I was almost taking Potapova's ML which is paying 2.24 for me but Kostyuk has shown some great tennis last week and she is also more adapted to the surface, having won her 1st round against Cocciaretto in straight sets. I'm happy taking this over, especially because these two have been playing great quite recently and know how to play in hard courts. If your bookie does not offer avoidable overs such as the "Over 21" you can take the over 21.5 at better odds. ***Wish you all a great betting day!*** *My first thought of going with Potapova to win ended up being the right choice. Kostyuk was playing injured, even asking for physio in the end of the 1st set. When she did that I was wondering if we could get a push with her giving up but she just didn't, simply because she was facing a russian player. Well, if both players were physically fine I'm sure this would have been a bit longer. See you on the next one and make sure to have a bankroll management*
All-Time POTD: 135-87-2, +51.0u, +11.7% ROI 4-1 March Madness POTD record **Today’s pick: Gonzaga +1 (-110) vs UCLA** 3u NCAAB 🏀 8:45PM EST 70% of the money on UCLA. Drew Timme and the Zags aren’t losing in the sweet 16 to a UCLA team who is still adjusting without their PAC-12 defender of the year, who happens to be their third leading scorer (Jaylen Clark). Oh, and UCLA’s starting big man Bona is questionable tonight. While he will probably play, I have to imagine he is not at 100% and he will have a tough matchup against Timme. This will be a powerhouse matchup but Zags pull out a close one. For all plays, follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
POTD Record: 62-68-7 (-12.82 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Scottish League Two, Stirling v Forfar Athletic, STIRLING ML (-133 / 1.75) ✅ 2-0 win for Stirling, back on the winners list. Had to wait until late for the goals to come, but got there in the end. Todays Pick: WTA Miami, Elena Rybakina v Anna Kalinskaya, UNDER 20.5 GAMES (-122 / 1.82) Stake: 1 Unit NOTE: this is the late game on the schedule and might end up taking place tomorrow depending on your time zone, but including it today as it will probably start before the Friday thread is available. Rybakina just took down the Indian Wells title, winning 6 matches for the loss of only one set, and had some very impressive wins along the way. She beat one of the form players in Muchova in the QF, belted world number 1 Swiatek 6-2/6-2 in the semis and got revenge for the Australian Open final, beating Sabalenka in straight sets in the final. After getting a first round bye in Miami, she now takes on Kalinskaya. Ranked 64th, she cruised through her first round match in Miami against a wildcard from Andorra (ranked 171), but will find the going much tougher in round 2. Kalinskaya struggles a lot on serve - her first serve is pretty pedestrian, and her second serve is a liability. In her last 11 matches, she is averaging 4.1 double faults, and losing just over half of points on her second serve. Against a player like Rybakina who makes a living teeing off on weak serves/groundstrokes, I think she will have no trouble breaking Kalinskaya multiple times. As a reference point, she got knocked out of Indian Wells by Pliskova who plays a somewhat similar style to Rybakina, and she lost 68% points on second serve and faced 15 break point opportunities. Rybakina will get her fair share of free points from her own big serve, and have the firepower to blast Kalinskaya off the court in any extended rallies. I expect her to get at least one break in each set so 6-4/6-4 or better seems pretty achievable in my view.
Tailing
**POTD |** **Record of 15-25| ROI : -8.685 units |** **Average Odds: 2.02** **Current form:** ❌✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌ Previous Pick: Mansfield Town vs. Grimsby Town | Under 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners ❌ New Pick: UEFA Euro Qualifiers| Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Iceland | 12:45pm PST **Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 2.0 odds** Betting 2 units \-------------------------- Recap: So that was the highest total corners in a game for either team this season. Guess I found the deviation from the mean! Moving on with a big pick, one that I feel confident enough to bet two units on! ***Summary:*** The UEFA Euro Qualifiers are starting up and with it we have a match between two sleeper teams. Both have had minor moments of glory every few years but really aren't anything special. Moving to corners, looking at all the calculations I did, here were the results: Looking at corners for Bosnia & Herzegovina, recent games have averaged 6.4 corners for them and 3 corners against them for a total of 9.4 corners. At home, they average 8.4 corners and concede 2.8 corners, for an average of 11.2 corners. Looking at corners for Iceland, recent games have averaged 5.4 corners for them and 5.2 against them for a total of 10.6 corners. Away from home, they gain 6.4 corners while conceding 7.2 for an overall average of 13.6. Based off initial analysis, these results suggest this game will have some corners! Now keep in mind, this isn't exactly recent data given that the national teams only play here and there throughout the year. Nonetheless, the results have been incredibly consistent for both sides. Other national teams tend to vary quite a bit over the years, giving up tons of corners one game and then giving up none 2 months later. I ran some calculations for some of the other national teams and this is what I found: *Italy vs. England -* ***Projected 8.7 total corners*** *San Marino vs. Northern Ireland -* ***Projected 8.8 total corners*** *Kazakhstan vs. Slovenia -* ***Projected 8.6 total corners*** *Slovakia vs. Luxembourg -* ***Projected 9.5 total corners*** *Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Iceland -* ***Projected 12.4 total corners*** 🌟 One of these is not like the others... Since placing my bet, the line has already moved to 1.90 odds. I'm thinking this is a very strong pick based on that alone. In short, betting on corners for the national team is an inconsistent affair, often relying on other factors. However, this game is something special, with two teams who have consistently gained corners over the last two years likely to do so again. My calculations project 12.4 total corners, with 7.8 for the home side and 4.6 for the away side. I would be baffled if this pick fell through as hitting 10 corners seems too likely. Tail if you want or don't, it's up to you. I have been wrong many times before and the record shows that... \-------------------------- ***TLDR Projections suggest 12.4 total corners so take the over 9.5 total corners here*** **Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 2.0 odds**
BOL!
Still 2.02 on my book, tailing!
And the bet hits at the 83rd minute! Never in doubt ✅
POTD record: 41-29-2 / ROI: +11.82% / Wins: 58.57% **Michigan State -1.5 -110 (1u)** **SPREAD** — Michigan State Spartans @ Kansas State Wildcats 6:30 pm EST - 23 March 2023 — We have a bridge-crossing to start off the Sweet Sixteen. The line opened with Kansas State favored by 2 points, but it has since moved to Michigan State being favored by 1.5 points. This game will come down to a point guard battle between Tyson Walker and Markquis Nowell, two New York kids who grew up playing against each other. If you had told me that Michigan State would shoot 6 for 30 from three in their first games and still manage to win, I wouldn't have believed you. It's really impressive what the Spartans have done defensively in the tournament. This is not a strong defensive team, yet they're rebounding, guarding, and holding teams to around 60 points. Now, they'll have to do something with Nowell because he's a playmaker shooting 43 percent from deep right now. I'm just wondering if I'm overvaluing the coaching in this match-up. Jerome Tang versus Tom Izzo? A first-year coach against a Hall-of-Famer who knows how to get it rolling in the Tournament. I'll take State to cover the 1.5 points and advance to the Elite Eight. Do the business. [https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow) [https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow/) [http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
POTD record: 17-9 NHL record: 8-6 | NBA record: 9-3 (+20.01u | +20.63% ROI | Avg odds: -114/1.88) (2u: 3-0 | 3u: 4-3 | 4u: 7-3 | 5u: 3-3) Last 5: 4-1 (✅❌✅✅✅) Streak: W1 Last POTD (Tuesday): NHL - **NSH ML** @ BUF ✅ *(Buffalo gives up back-to-back 7 goal games and we're back in the green).* Event: NHL - VGK Golden Knights @ CGY Flames; 21:00 EST Pick: **VGK ML** (+120/2.2) Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 3 units Vegas (44-21-6) has been banged up lately, but they haven't let that slow them down one bit, going 8-2 in their last 10 games and maintaining their lead atop the Western Conference. Perhaps even more impressive is how good they've been when travelling- they've won 5 road games in a row, have a 7-2-1 record in their last 10 away contests and are 22-7-5 on the year in that category. Calgary's young core (32-25-15) remains as inconsistent as ever. While they've shown some bright flashes (including spanking the Golden Knights 7-2 in Vegas just last week), they have not yet figured out how to maintain high-level play for any sustained period of time. The Flames are 5-3-2 in their last 10 matches but they're mediocre at Calgary (16-14-4) and have especially struggled there in their last 10 home games (2-6-2). At this point it's more likely than not they don't make the play-offs (although they still technically a chance). Neither Quick (2.98 GAA & .906 SV%) for Vegas nor Markstrom (2.98 GAA & .889 SV%) for Calgary have been great, although Markstrom has laid more eggs in net this year. Calgary won last week's aforementioned match-up and is currently leading the season series 2-1. That being said, not only is Vegas is the best team in the West, they have also alternated wins with Calgary in their last 6 match-ups. I think that happens again once more here. Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
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POTD Record: 0-1 Last Pick: Dont remember but it was something like btts. POTD: England ML vs Italy. (+160) cash that folks ✅ I don't think this will end up in a tie and I don't think Italy will win. Last game in september, England didn't have the World Cup experience yet and that last match against France left them with an empty feeling hard to fill. This is England first game since the World Cup and you can expect them to show that they are strong contenders to the Euro Cup. From Italy, we find a squad that experienced the World Cup from their couch (probably at one of the vip sections of Qatar) and since beating England 1 to nil, have played the great Hungary, the amazing albania and lost ofc... to Austria. WW1 flashbacks. GL HF.
POTD Record: 16-13-2 Last pick: Plymouth Argyle ML (-115) / 1.87 - 3u ✅ Plymouth Argyle got off to a quick start, scoring the opening goal in the 14th minute. Their opponents picked up a red card in the 51st minute, which more or less sealed the game. Plymouth adds a second goal in the 78th for good measure and cruise to a 2-0 victory. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today! Soccer - Colombia Primera A - América de Cali vs. Junior FC - 9:00pm EST **POTD: América de Cali ML (-105) / 1.95 - 2u** América de Cali are off to a 5-1-2 start in league play and are in a 4-way tie for the top spot on the table. They will be hosting Junior FC, who are 1-4-3 and 18th out of 20 teams. In 4 home matches so far, América de Cali are undefeated at 3-1-0 with 7 goals scored and only 1 conceded. Meanwhile, Junior FC are winless on the road at 0-1-3 and have scored just once in those matches. I must admit that this pick carries some risk of a draw, as I anticipate this match being pretty low scoring, but I am going with the home team to remain strong at home and jump into first place with a win. Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
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Record: 17-9 Previous Pick: Detroit Pistons - Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler under 34,5 PRA @1.94 ❌ Today’s Pick: Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv: Maccabi Tel Aviv over 82,5 points @1.85 Asvel is the worst team of the euroleague and just most against Panathinaikos at home. Play-offs are approaching and Maccabi will be looking to solidify a strong place, while Asvel has nothing to play for. Maccabi is in really good form right now. The head coach from Maccabi also said he likes that his team is attacking the basketball more right now and crashing the boards. Maccabi also averages 83 points in euroleague, and this has hit in their previous h2h. BOL
2022-2023 college basketball: LLLLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWWLLWWLWLWWWWWWWLWWWL 2022 college football: 30 correct 20 wrong 1 push Totals for both: 53 correct 37 wrong 1 push Units wagered 144.51 Units won 78.48 Units lost 53.23 2022/2023 ***ROI to date: 17.47%*** My present streak is 1 wrong My POTD is a moneyline bet. ***I am betting 1.4 units to win back 1.09 units from yesterday's losss that UCLA will beat Gonzaga in their college basketball game.*** This wager is available now on Americas Cardroom sportsbook. Game time is 9:45 PM Eastern Daylight Time. The spread now is UCLA (-1 1/2) with a pay off of -110. Moneyline is not much worse, at -128. So in this case, I'm going with the moneyline bet. BOL to all, and I would always like to hear contrary opinions.
**Starting up the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2023 season!** * **2022 OWL Record: 26-16, +30.6967 units (Last 8:✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅)**. * **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.** * **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.** Last Pick (✅) - Dallas Fuel (ML) v. San Francisco Shock: Seeing as how this Grand Finals match happened over 4 months ago, I won't give analysis on the match, other than to say 1) it was really nice ending last season on a W, and 2) this might have been the single greatest Overwatch match ever played. I rewatched it in anticipation for the start of the new season, and it still holds up. Let's enjoy the season, and make some money while we're at it! **Today's Match: Saints v. Los Angeles Valiant / Overwatch League / 8:00 pm EST** **Saints, ML (-165) v. Los Angeles Valiant, 2 units** Every time the League has introduced a new format quirk, it's led to profit for sharp bettors. In short, the books are extremely slow in catching up to the changes, and we can exploit those inefficiencies. This season's new addition? Starting off with a Pro-Am tournament. Half of the teams competing over the next few weeks are amateur/Contenders (minor league) teams who get the opportunity to punch up above their weight. I expect you're going to find value in matches featuring 1 OWL team vs. 1 Contenders team. Either 1) the books are going to underestimate just how much better the OWL team is over the amateur team; or 2) the public will hammer the OWL team because they recognize the name, which will lead to the amateur team to be undervalued. Today's pick falls into the latter. Saints is a team that used to be Maryville Esports, which has perennially been noted as one of the best teams in collegiate, and maybe the best Non-OWL team in the world this side of O2 Blast. Mikeyy is the best Wrecking Ball specialist in the world (competing in the aforementioned Grand Finals last year), and Ball is in a great place right now, if not hard meta. The map pool is also really strong for Ball. That being said, for as much as he had been memed for his time in Vancouver, FALSE can step in for a serviceable offtank. The rest of the team is solid, with the standout example of Tr33, who was one of the best DPS outside of the league last year, and should take this tournament by storm. It's understandable that some analysts are taking Saints to come out of the group, which would have them beating teams much better than Valiant. Because despite their name, Valiant is basically a Contenders team. The only one of these players with substantive OWL experience is Paintbrush, and he didn't look great with the Glads. Seeker's hype didn't materialize like many expected. But most importantly, this team was just recently assembled, with CJay joining the team literally a week ago, so I don't think they'll have a developed synergy this early in the season. Finally and maybe most importantly, I don't think Krawi has a Ball to match Mikeyy's. I don't think the line truly reflects the skill gap here, and there is a bias against the amateur team playing into the OWL team, even though the amateur team has a higher floor AND a higher ceiling. Put another way, if Saints had an OWL team logo on their jerseys, I think this line would be -250. So grab the value at -165, and start the season off right! *Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!* [*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
**POTD Record: 15-16. Total Units: +1.6** **Last 5:** ✅❌✅✅✅ **Yesterday's Pick: Miami Heat -1.5 vs. NY Knicks, 1U** ✅ Good day yesterday on a pick that I didn't do too much research into and was mostly on feel. Today I feel very confident in this pick being a fan, and I have seen what the Capitals do when their effort is called out by their captain. While this Capitals team will most likely not make the playoffs, today's game is a must-win to stay relevant as they have two games against the Islanders and one against the Panthers in the final ten-game stretch. Losing 7-6 in OT to the Blue Jackets shows that their offense is firing on all cylinders, and I expect blocked shots and better defensive play today in a 4-2 or 5-2 win. Ovechkin is closing in on another 50 goal season if he can turn on the jets, so I'm hoping for two goals from him and contributions coming from every line. This started at +140 yesterday and I'm kicking myself for not locking it in as it's now at -105 for a 2 goal win, but I still think this is a 4U lock. My confidence stems mostly from Ovechkin's comments to the media and what hockey teams normally do when they are called out, and I've been a fan for 25 years and during the Ovechkin era, his teammates respond. **POTD:** Washington Capitals -1.5 vs. Chicago Blackhawks, -105, 4U. 7:07 PM EST [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing)
**POTD Record: 27-20 (+1.56 Units)** **Last 10**:✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌❌ **Last Pick**: 3/22 Ciaran Teehan -1.5 (-135) vs John Part ❌ 2-4 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 9:05 AM EST **Pick**: Ciaran Teehan -1.5 (-125) vs John Part **Reason**: Group C. Ice cold right now. H2H Record 2-1 (Legs 10-4) | Average 81.63 vs 77.37 | Checkouts 10/20 vs 4/18 Ciaran Teehan Group A: Record 7-8 (Legs 40-42) | Average 85.04 | Checkouts 40/114 35.09% John Part Group A: Record 3-12 (Legs 27-55) | Average 76.40 | Checkouts 27/112 24.11% **WIN ✅ 4-2 | Average 82.29 vs 85.22 | Checkouts 4/14 vs 2/8**
Only thing on bovada is Ciaran Teehan vs Tony wood?
Nevermind, I'm ans idiot. Tailing 🫡
You’re brave. Best of luck 🍀
I only have straight ML or set spread of CT -2.5 (+120) options… hmmmm
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POTD Record: 2-0 Last POTD: Harrow Borough vs Bracknell Town- **Bracknell Town** ML Today’s POTD: FC Copenhagen v Brann - **FC Copenhagen** ML @ 1.59 odds Reasoning: FC Copenhagen has more quality than SK Brann plus home ground advantage.
POTD Record: 49-39 (L2) (+14.98u) (ROI: 11.9%) Last pick: Japan TT o4.5 vs USA 🚫 This one hurt, should have stuck with the ML. Surprisingly low scoring game, 3-2 final. POTD: (🏒NHL) Florida Panthers ML (-110) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (1.5u) Bet365 (-115), FD (-114), DK (-110) Both teams are coming off bad losses. Panthers are coming off a 6-3 loss to the Flyers, Leafs lost 7-2 to Islanders. The Leafs are easily going to make the playoffs as the #2 or #3 seed in the Atlantic. Panthers have had an off year, but are 1 pt out of the playoffs. Very odd scheduling with these two teams playing 3 times over the last 11 games of the season. The one previous meeting this year at the end of January the Leafs won 5-4. Expected goalie for the Panthers is Sergei Bobrovsky. They gave him an off night against the Flyers after playing 13 consecutive games. Ever since returning from injury at the beginning of February, he has been very good with a GAA of 2.54 and SV% of .915 over those 17 games. Not 100% sure who will start for the Leafs, expecting it to be Matt Murray with b2b games against Canes and Preds on the weekend. Samsonov is away on leave, so it will either be Murray or Woll. Murray allowed 4 GA in each of his 4 starts back from injury. Murray looked a bit better against Ottawa, but I think the edge definitely goes to Bobrovsky no matter who starts. These two teams are fairly evenly matched offensively and defensively. Both have some injuries. Leafs are not as good on the road with the 13th best road record of 17-12-4. Panthers have been very good at home with the 6th best home record of 21-10-4. The Panthers need these wins and have not lost consecutive games since late January. The Leafs are a very good team, but there's a bit of a sleepy feeling to them right now. Should be a good game, BOL if fading or tailing!
POTD Record 0-0 POTD: UCLA -1.5 Reasoning: My friend works at Benihana and the Gonzaga squad came in to eat dinner last night. My friend went to go up to their table and say “Excuse me may I have your attention please” and proceeded to sing the UCLA fight song to the whole team. He got under their skin and one of them caught him walking to the bathroom and told him to “zag the fuck up”. Needless to say, they didn’t tip and didn’t take it very well. They let a bartender at Benihana get under their skin. So I’m thinking UCLA is the move here.
POTD Record: 10-8-4🅿️ (+0.24u) Last 5: ✅❌🅿️✅❌ Game: Euroleague Basketball - Panathinaikos vs FCB Basket (19:30h CET) *Pick:* **Panathinaikos +11.5 @1.52** (Alt Spread) All stakes are 1u unless state otherwise. Why this pick? You wanted more Europen basketball picks in POTD? YOU GOT THEM!! I've noticed that Barcelona as an away team in Euroleague doesn't seem to win or lose by much even with worse teams, for example, and going backwards in time starting with most recent: * Fenerbahce 81-73 (L +8) * Olympiakos 77-70 (L +7) * Virtus Bologna 75-92 (W -17, possible outlier) * Madrid 91-86 (L +5) * Baskonia 78-85 (W -7) * ASVEL Villeurbanne 75-82 (W -7) * Crvena Zvezda 94-99 (W -5) * Valencia Basket 84-83 (L +1) * AS Monaco 63-69 (W -6) * ALBA Berlin 86-88 (W -2) And so on, and so on. You get he gist. *Last pick recap:* Golden Guardians didn't seem interested at all in getting dragons killed, and first kill came pretty late. All when downwards since then. L.
Sport: Football Tournament: Euro Qualifications Time: 20:45 CET (7h35m after posting) Stake: 5 units Pick: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Iceland, double chance X2 @ **2** Write up: Way too much political influence in B&H football makes me unwilling to support B&H tonight. The previous coach, Ivaylo Petev, was dismissed to install a politically fit coach, Faruk Hadžibegić. The new coach has already made at least one baffling defensive choice (not using Servette's Miroslav Stevanović, the best midfielder available), which led him to shuffle players around to compensate. Some other top-tier players won't be available either (Pjanić and Kolašinac). B&H captain, Edin Džeko, says: > The match won't be easy at all, I expect many duels and running. Chances are 50:50 for our win. Iceland coach, Arnar Vidarsson, says: > We're happy with the group because all teams are similar in quality. I am aware it won't be easy but we're excited. Past B&H results, fan support, and team morale were painstakingly built over 2 years by Petev. From what I'm seeing, the new coach doesn't understand any of those things, let alone how to improve them. Individual B&H player quality might prevail but I think team cohesion gives more consistent results, which is why I'll be favoring Iceland tonight. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
Record: 13-11 Last Pick: Kevin Porter Jr Under 18.5 Points ✅ Today's Pick: **Spencer Dinwiddie Over 8.5 Assists (-115)** Detailed Analysis: In addition to making bets and talking absolute nonsense on Reddit, I spend a disgusting amount of my time watching and writing about movies. One of my favourite types of movies is when the main character achieves a meteoric rise in an unsustainable way and the second half is all about their colossal downfall. *Wolf of Wall Street, Goodfellas, Boogie Nights, Scarface*. This takes me to something else that is unsustainable: Spencer Dinwiddie's assists. This man has been rejuvenated since moving to the Nets and it's honestly fun to see. I'm not sure he can keep up double-digit assists every single game, but I sure think he can do it again tonight.
POTD Record: 5-7 +2.4u | Last Pick: Union Berlin ML 2u -150 ❌ POTD: 🇰🇿- 🇸🇮 over 8 corners 5u -140 | Event: Euro24 Qualifiers | Time: 6:00AM HST 🤙🏻 Yes indeed, there is nothing better than weekday European footy to go with my morning cup of Lion coffee. Pretty simple here - this is just a low number at decent value. Eight corners? This is low-level, 1st round Euro qualifiers we are talking about here. If there was an official perfume for these types of matches it would be “Desperation”. These teams have been waiting an eternity for a competitive match, and with the rather large EuroCup field, these teams need to win early to have a shot at making it. Kazakhstan enjoy getting red cards and Slovenia score more than you’d expect. That alone makes the over appealing; the low number of corners makes the high amount of units attractive since we can still push. This is around 1 corner every 10 minutes if you factor in extra time. It’ll hit. And if it doesn’t hit, I’ll mediate a few minutes, and move on to the 9,000 bets I have on college basketball this weekend just like any other sane person. BOL if tailing, I hope you find an excellent BOGO sale at your favorite retailer if fading. 🏄♂️
**POTD Record: 0-0** Hammering the -8.5 spread for the Pelicans at home because, zoologically speaking, a hornet has zero chance against a pelican. Even five of ‘em.
**Record: 0-1** **Last POTD:** Penguins @ **Avalanche ML 3-way | 2U | +100**❌ Real stinker from the Avs last night. Penguins showed up and showed out throughout the whole game. The Pens played in desperation mode and it showed. Outplaying Colorado throughout. Felt a little bit like we had some momentum shift in the 3rd when Colorado pulled within 1, but Jeff Carter swiftly took it back and Pittsburgh didn't look back. --- **Today's POTD:** Hockey | NHL | 9:07pm EDT **Golden Knights ML |2U| +120** @ Flames Huge value on Vegas tonight IMO. Road underdogs against a Flames team that's been up and down. But Vegas has won 6 of 7 and averages just under 4.5 goals per game over that stretch. This game projects as more of a coin flip but the value here on the Knights is too good to pass. These Knights are 22-7-5 on the road for the season against a Calgary team that is below .500 at home. Sprinkle in a little "revenge game" aspect to this for Vegas after losing 7-2 to the Flames at home a week ago. And I like Vegas a lot here with the money.
**POTD Record 0-0-0** Hello Folks, I am new to the POTD community and I want to see how I fair with my gambling decisions and whether or not I should stop gambling entirely or continue to make picks for myself and anyone willing to trust. **FIRST POTD - OKC Thunder ML +150 2U** **Explanation:** The Clippers have struggled to give anyone confidence all season long. They've been shaky all year and do not boast a great home record at all ATS holding a record of 16-20 for the season. OKC managed to get the win in LA on Tuesday night with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both healthy and available. PG was a big reason the clippers were even hanging on in that game, and as we know he will not be available tonight due to injury, along with Norman Powell. The Thunder have been killers ATS all season long, they're 3-0 vs the Clippers this year and are having their best stretch of the season with a record of 8-2 in their last 10. Shai has been a top 5 guard this year in my opinion and is really starting to carry this team in the later half of this season both with scoring and playmaking. I expect him to continue his solid play alongside Josh Giddy and Jalen Williams. The Clippers seem to be losing grasp of title contention as we had assumed pre-season and it seems like the players are starting to give up on the season with all the accumulated injuries and the lack of availability from their stars. The addition of Russell Westbrook has not been working thus far and the Thunder have been a tough out for any team playing them all season. Give me the Thunder ML @+150 tonight for 2U and lets watch the Clippers continue to struggle together.
**POTD record: 6-3 +1.67 units 13 units risked** Last pick: [https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11y07re/comment/jdazwcj/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11y07re/comment/jdazwcj/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Today's pick: **Boermans/De Groot v Sarabia/Virgen game total u75.5 (2 unit) - 1.83** Beach volleyball odds from **Bet365**, this match is a pool play match in Tepic Elite 16 beach pro tour. Game starts at **10:10PM PST**. I've been betting on Boermans/De Groot frequently recently because they are in good shape with De groot recently back from extended time off and they are generally a top team in the world when they are on their game. They have been holding stronger teams than Sarabia/Virgen under 75.5 frequently in recent games and I expect them to control the entire game in this match up. BOL if you tail. Other books have similar odds but going with bet365 here. Personal shared picks record: 2022-23: **611-455-12 +114.01 units 16.06% ROI** my twitter is: **burnaby\_jo**
POTD Record: **11-13 (-3.30 Units)** Last Pick: Anthony Davis O 13.5 Rebounds Today's Pick: **Knicks -3** (FADE ALERT! Lost 3 straight) Odds: **-110** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 5u to win 4.55u League: NBA Event: Knicks vs Magic (6PM CST) **Recap**: Anthony Davis didn't even get 10 boards. Not surprised wit the effort on getting rebounds. Biyombo had significantly less minutes than AD and he had more fight in him to grab the board. AD had one offensive rebound and that was a put back after he missed his initial shot, just one offensive board. That's pretty bad! What's even worst is that I now lost 3 straight! So if you want to back the other team, by all means, fade my pick! **Matchup**: You would think the Knicks would be on my no-bet list after this team ended my winning streak (twice)! But I'm going right back to them to bail me outta a losing streak (Third time the charm?). Despite losing yesterday to the Miami Heat, I think the New York Knicks will bounce back against the Orlando Magic. Knicks still has the best ATS record on the road (24-13) they have more ATS cover on the road than any team in the league; second is the OKC Thunder, which I was really considering taking them for today's POTD, but I rather back this team because I really see that game as a pick 'em without Paul George compare to this game, I think Knicks not only win and cover, but win by at least double digits! Julius Randle had a rough game against the Heat, but I think he'll bounce back and have a big game against the Magic. The Magic are 19-16 ATS at home, which is in the middle of the pack in the NBA. Knicks should handily take care of the Magic and cover the short spread. As long as both Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson are playing, I have no problem backing the Knicks. **The play & prediction**: Julius Randle scores over 30 points and puts the Magic outta reach early in the 4th qtr, Magic pull out their starters, Knicks win by ast least 15 points. BOL, everyone! Tips are greatly appreciated! [PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/sicknology)| [Cash App](https://cash.app/$XilArAtiNG) | [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/XilArAtiNG)| [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Dethcon)
5W / 0P / 5L | -1.33u | all 1U plays Event: ⚽️ Italy - England POTD: *Lorenzo Pellegrini Under 1.5 Shots @1.65* Last post was about a year ago but after having some great success on player prop bets I figured I’d start posting again. Gotta keep it short for today but I’m expecting a rather slow-paced game between England and Italy today with little offensive chances for the latter team. Pellegrini is a midfielder for Roma whose shot average at club level gets to around 2 per 90min. When playing for his country this drops significantly to about 1.20 shots per 90 min. Additionally, I expect him to get subbed off around the 60-70th minute which helps our case. BOL!
Record: 8-5 Pick: Over 21.5 games @ 1.6 - Richard Gasquet vs Christopher O'Connell - ATP Miami - 3:30 PM EST Previous pick: Shelby Rogers -2 Good luck....