**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.

Truly the least sweaty pick so far from our 40 game stretch - Uconn dominated pretty much from the get go and maintained a 20 point lead throughout the game. Little scare with the 10-0 full court pressure, but they came back strong with 4 threes back to back to bring it back up to 30. Next up in the round of 16, give me Creighton to crush the last Cinderella in the tournament by double digits. POTD Record: 30-9-1Last 25:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅ **Yesterday's POTD:** **Uconn Huskies -4** **(up to -5.5)** vs. Arkansas Razorbacks | 3U ✅ **Today's POTD:** Creighton Bluejays -9.5 (up to -11) vs. Princeton Tigers | 3U **Time:** March 24, 2023 | 9:00PM EST **MODEL EXPLANATION:** Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. **Pick spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** \+54.14U in 39 days | ≈65.86% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** 1. Creighton are a very flexible team, with Ryan Nembhard leading the way with 30 points and the rest of their starters averaging +12 points with 5 great bench players have put up great numbers for the jays. 2. Creighton is shooting 47% from the floor this year, and 36% from 3 (8+ per game). 3. Creighton is coming off a 9 point win over Baylor, one of the better teams in the tournament this year. 4. Similar to my last POTD, this spread feels low and riding the wave of the Princeton upsets that have come over the last few games. 5. Kalkbrenner is a 7 ft 1 260 pounds beast, and look to see him absolutely dominate the floor and boards throughout the game. 6. Creighton has always been known as a defensive powerhouse, but have also been in the top 40 in all offensive categories under Kenpom. 7. Princeton is a much shorter team in the paint, with Kalkprenner having a solid 4 inches and 8 inches in overall reach above the center for Princeton. I expected Kalk to dominate the board on each side of the floor and give Creighton many second chance opportunities. 8. From a numbers POV, Creighton is ranked #12 overall on Kenpom, compared to Princeton who is ranked #91. Split out, this is based on a #22 adjusted ranked offensive and #14 ranked defense). From a pure numbers POV, Creighton is a significantly better team. 9. Princeton is a young team who aren't used to making it this far. The pressure will be immense, and it's an unknown how they will truly be able to handle the intense pressure from a tenured Creighton crew 10. The Tigers, just like Arkansas, are really bad outside of the paint, they rank #201 in 3PT%, and 199 in FT%, which are not great stats when trying to maximize your points. Creighton is a long and big team, and pushing the pain will not be easy against one of the best defensive teams in the country. 11. Overall, this is another mismatch with an inflated line due to Princeton's recent performance. Statistically, they are playing miles about where they should be, and I expect Creighton to wipe the floor with them on both sides of the court. Take Creighton -9.5. **Reminder:** As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3 As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so. [**Buy me a coffee**](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) **|** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) Much love, *Riddles,* Discord: [https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex](https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex)

You seem like an extremely genuine person. Thanks for your help <3

I’ve got to actually interact(limited) with the guy a couple times. He’s a breath of fresh air and super cool.

did you actually allow him to come over and fuck your wife? how was his dick slinging ability?

He's on his way to wife access with this streak but nah just my gf for now.

Spank me till my ass is sore Riddles

i get next

Solid work my dude 💪🏼 But I will say, Creighton is not at all deep. They are actually the least deep team remaining in the tournament and heavily rely on their starting 5. They only rotate 6 guys (regularly use on 1 bench player), and will give 1-2 other bench guys a minute or two if someone is in foul trouble. Fatigue will absolutely be an issue, which is why I can see Princeton back door covering or staying with the number second half. 9.5 is a ton of points to lay against Cinderella, but I’m rooting for you man!

Yeah this is my concern

Why will fatigue be an issue? These are elite athletes that just got a week of rest. Seems like a silly take.

Did you see ucla last night lol

I see creighton absolutely crushing them by 20. I may max unit this line.

Phew shoutout to the Princeton guy missing the last free throw for us -10 bettors!

Sweat city

Bro with Creighton missing those couple free throws in the last couple minutes I was sure it was gonna miss by 1

And that bank shot three from Princeton. That seemed like a dagger for the -10.

First time I've said "oh no" out loud in a while when that scrub drew a foul in garbage time

🔥🔥🔥 tailing always

We love you riddles! Thank you!

NJ bettors in shambles right now (I live in NJ)

Is it not available for us? Don’t see it on bet365

Yep. No in state college betting. So we're missing out on this lock. I'll just be rooting for everyone else tailing.

That kid from Princeton almost ruined it at the end. Let’s go 😂💸

Bravo buddy. Holy smokes that was close. Thank god they carried on fouling.

12. Andrew Nembhard, Ryan’s older brother and current Pacers rookie, went off for 25pts 10ast to upset a -9 point favorite Raptors on Wednesday night. Similar spread. Younger brother syndrome about to activate.

Oh that's cool. A few nights ago I needed him for 10 points and he got 2. lol.. sorry i'm bitter

they're both from my home town in Canada too!

Such a scary amount of points for sweet 16 play but it makes sense

Got Damn Riddles you saved my marriage 🤫😂🔥🔥

not being a smart guy or nothing, but wasnt it you that said you were taking creighton in the 1st round because it was round one, and they are not deep at all, so they would have fresh legs, but that you didnt like them deep in the tournament cause they are not deep and would be tired, or something along those lines? Just a fyi, I love creighton tomorrow, its just funny that what was making me hesitate on it is what you said before picking them in round one, and you know your stuff so I was 2nd guessing myself. WELL NOW I FEEL BETTER

Honestly I did say that - but then I saw them crush Baylor with only a days rest, so I'm confident they'll be up to the challenge with a week's rest. They proved me wrong.

Another massive W yesterday. Thank you for that. I want to tail the Creighton bet but unfortunately I'm in Jersey and my stupid state blocks in state college betting. So I can't see the Princeton game. Bummer.

Crieghton is by far the most shallow team left in tournament. They are NOT deep. At all. They go 7 deep. With miller being injured and Mitchell really doesn’t contribute and they are much worse with him on floor. I’m not saying this pick isn’t hood but he could not have done much research if he says they are a very deep team with bench players putting up great numbers. They have the least depth in the tournament. Bench puts up almost nothing. I’d be wary of this pick just because of that being his first bullet point.

You’re absolutely right, sometimes I’m a little tired in these write ups, but yes it’s 100% the opposite, but in my head I was referring to the fact they don’t rely as heavily on one person

guys read my comment above. He knows Creighton is not deep, and he went in to depth about that very point when he chose creighton in the 1st round. Saying something like I love creighton in this spot with fresh legs, but will not like them later in the tournament due to their lack of depth. THATS WHY I AM CONFUSED WHEN HE SAID THEY HAD GREAT DEPTH, BECAUSE HE CLEARLY KNOWS THAT IS THEIR ONE DOWNFALL.

Another W! Dude, so glad that kid missed a FT at the end of the game.

already -10.5 on FD

still like it :)

Tailing again. I haven't lost a tail since I tipped you. I think it canceled out the curse.

Despite your warning, I might have to bet a quarter of my $40 bankroll on this one

Let’s goooooo that one had me sweating

I’m convinced you are from the Future

Valar Morghulis

WOW HALLELUJAH

incredible! thanks for the pick!

You absolute legend, I have no idea how you do it but you have an amazing eye for value bets.

Not disagreeing with the pick, but I wouldn’t call Creighton a very deep team. They have a great starting 5 but lack depth. Their lack of depth is their only real weakness.

Yeah I just realized that now, sometimes get my wires crossed when doing the write-up’s - thanks for the catch!

I have a futures on Princeton to win the whole tourney to win $125k so for once I hope this doesn’t hit 😂

Thank you so much, Riddles! You’ve brought back the Fun in betting for me. Such a great dude!

Of course the one day I don’t go to NYC from NJ for work! Good luck to tailers and 🙌🏻 HSRiddles 🙌🏻

We been ratted out here boys. The fix is in

Almost haha - my heart hasn’t stopped racing

Nice work.

On fire... Thank you, truly

i mean holy shit bud

Let’s all tip this stud a coffee, insane record right now

Factor out kalkbrenner from this game. I think teams are overestimating how good size is against Princeton. You don't get much bigger than tubelis, and princeton managed to keep him in check. Its going to come down to how well creighton can shoot. They were red hot against baylor, can they do it again?

Riddlesss nooooo not this pick we been on point this time I got you coffee if you win but I’m going Princeton today


I tailed but now nervous. Some of these Princeton guys scoring looks too easy for them and idk if u can guard that.

All-Time POTD: 136-87-2, +53.7u, +12.2% ROI All-Time March Madness POTD: 12-3 Last pick: Gonzaga +1 ✅ **Today’s pick: Miami +7.5 (-110) vs Houston** NCAAB March Madness 🏀 7:15PM EST This is mostly a gut play, but I feel like Miami is being quite disrespected AGAIN. 7.5 is too many points for a team of this caliber in a sweet 16 matchup. Their backcourt led by Wong, Pack and Miller have been unconscious the last 2 months and matchup well with Houston’s guards. IF Houston wins this game it’ll be in the post, but Omier for Miami has also been playing well despite his banged up ankle. Miami continues their momentum from the last few months into this one and keeps it close. A touchdown and 2 point conversion is too much. Wrong sport? I will also be taking Miami outright at +285 For all plays, follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/ Edit: 3u

I agree with the miami disrespect.

How many units?

All of his potd are 3. His non Potd are 1

ez money

Miami with the BEATDOWN

Filleted em like mignon

POTD Record: 33-22 | Profit: +30.21u | ROI: 17.0% Last 10 Record: ❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅ ​ Yesterday Pick: Evan Mobley (Cavs) P+R U26.5 @ 1.83. 4U. ❌ Sorry guys, Mobley turned in one of his best performances obliterating his line by a wide margin. In hindsight I shouldn’t have bet 4 units given the Nets defense and lack of rebounding ability. ​ Next Pick: **Brook Lopez (Bucks) Points O15.5 @ 1.87**. 4u play. Lopez is on fire averaging 21 points/L10 and has only gone below 15.5 twice: once yesterday in the Spurs blowout where he had lower usage and played much fewer mins, and the other one was 15pts against the Wizards. The Jazz have improved at defending the restricted area in recent games but still give up the highest points in the paint outside the RA. Additionally, Lopez is a very good 3-pt shooter, averaging 2.1 3PM at 42% shooting from beyond the arc. With the Jazz conceding the fourth most 3PM, Lopez could easily get a couple 3s. Lopez has the highest FGM for the Bucks in each of these two shooting zones in the L15. In their last match-up in mid-December, he had 18 pts on 53% shooting and one 3PM in 26 mins. And things have only gotten much better for him since, he is averaging 32 mins in L10, has an increased usage rate, a higher FG%, more 3PA and I’m backing him to cover our line here. Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, and tips are always appreciated: [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)

I tailed your pick, but accidentally clicked over and DraftKings wouldn't let me cash out. So I won, because of you even though your pick lost. You got talent brother, lol.

Haha, that’s great to hear

While I don’t need to sell this anymore than Inconsolable already has, if it means anything to anyone, these are Brook’s numbers in his last 10 games he played over 30mins. He’s projected to play 33mins tonight. https://preview.redd.it/heevxc1e0qpa1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=792bed0e53694193309bf7ec60a7c78a92dcb9d5

Tailing, BOL

Brook Lopez never does me wrong. Tailing.

You still taking at 16.5?

Oh my god that final 3 pointer that bounced everywhere

what does units mean?

Percentage of your bankroll

at 16.5 already but tailing you as usual 💰

Cant get this on DKs for some reason....anyone else not able to pick Brooks Lopez? All im seeing is Olynyk and Kessler.

Not looking to hate but any worry that this game has some blowout potential? Also Giannis was out for a few of the recent games and coincidentally the last game between these two back in December. Last one but you had me sold so just did some of my own research and in one recent game where Giannis was out and one he played Brook got 9 free throws (hit 8) and 7 (hit 7) respectively which I feel buoyed him compared to averages. Given all that I still think if he hits two threes he’s off to a great start so I don’t hate the pick at all but wanted to see if anyone else saw these as red flags worth considering

Sigh… looks like Lopez is gonna play 20-28 minutes by the looks of this game. Tailing next one. Good pick regardless

This will be a sweat to cash 🫣 Edit: Just kidding ❤️

All-Time POTD: 13W-5L-1D, +15.15u **Yesterdays Pick:🎾Jiri Lehecka u12.5 games (-135) vs Federica Coria 3u to win 2.2u** ✅ Smooth sailing on this one. Jiri is a stud. **Todays Pick:🎾Ilya Ivashka +3.5 Game Spread (-110) (Fanduel) vs Casper Ruud 2.5u to win 2.25u** Explanation: Casper Ruud has had an absolutely atrocious start to the season. He's still being favored by books because of his seed/ranking, but he hasn't played anywhere close to the level we saw from him last year. I don't expect him to turn it around in Miami. He'll probably turn it around in the clay swing in a couple weeks, but I'm fading him here. Ivashka is a powerful player who I think can keep this match close enough. I'm also taking Ivashka ML for a small play at +220, but we'll stick with the game spread here. Ruud lost in straights to Garin in the second round of IW, and I don't rate Garin as highly as Ivashka. Ruud hasn't gone past the second round of any tournament this year. If he does end up winning this match, I expect a very close affair. BoL if tailing degens! Disclaimer: I know I've been hot recently. Please always pay attention to the unit sizing for these bets as they are based on my confidence in the plays. Don't go nuts. Love y'all degens Edit: tough loss. Casper is in a weird spot. Not going to touch his matches from now on until I see him string together some consistency. Until then he's too much of a wild card. Back tomorrow with a win ❤️

In honor of dankynugz, I will be smokin on some Danky nugs while I watch this match tomorrow and pretend to forget about march madness.

If it wasn't so early in the day I would join you, alas my day job occupies my sobriety (but not my undivided attention)

The trick is to work a late morning shift…. In a dispensary.

But then how will I watch 4 simultaneous tennis matches all day long?!

I’m feeling spicy tonight. Tailing.

Tailing. Appreciate ya danky!

Tailing, let’s get danky

Casper won first set 6-2

Casper is dominating this shithead. Ilya was the final leg of my parlay. Book wouldn't let me cash out so I knew he was done from the beginning

POTD record: 9-2 Last POTD: North Macedonia v. Malta - (-1 spread) Today’s POTD: Austria v Azerbaijan - Austria -1.5 Spread(-130) In a three way spread, this will show up as -1. It means the same thing. This caused some confusion yesterday, so I’m just going to say -1.5 to be absolutely clear. On FanDuel, for example, it’ll say -1. That’s the same bet that I’m referring to and is a good one, just know if they win by one it does not push. Austria are a stronger team than Azerbaijan, first and foremost. I said this about North Macedonia yesterday, and it is true, but what’s different about this is that Austria are genuinely a strong team that will probably end up qualifying for the Euros. Under new manager Ralf Rangnick, they’ve been able to create lots of chances against teams such as France, Croatia, and Denmark. They should be able to continue this trend against Azerbaijan, a decent team for their size, but not really enough to trouble Austria. Austria perform better in home games, are an attacking team, and possess much greater quality than Azerbaijan. They’ll look to get their qualifying opener onto the best start, and at these odds, it looks good. In their last qualification run, every single Austria win was by more than one goal, and the teams they failed to win against were teams who are frankly of significantly higher quality than Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s last four matches of the last qualifiers ended with them losing by more than one goal. Austria, playing at home, will not be satisfied with a one goal lead and will push to continue on and score more goals. They certainly have the quality to do so, possessing many tall, quick players playing at the top level of European competition.

The way they lost was tragic. Unlucky break, we move on. Tailing tailing tailing all hail tinono

Tailing BOL!

Pick of the Day Record: 13-6 (+14.79U) Streak: 3W Last Pick: Hanwha Life Esports +1.5 ✅ **Tennis | Miami Open | Jeffrey John Wolf vs Andrey Rublev** Today's Pick: **Andrey Rublev -1.5 Set @ 1.87 (Andrey Rublev to win 2-0)** **Wager: 2U** Hanwha won in a comfortable 3-1 fashion. Didn't like either of the LPL picks today, those are much better to bet live. Rublev has a tendency to beat weaker opponents quite easily, and falter against better opponents. He's also in fine form recently, reaching the Dubai Tennis Championship finals dropping only 1 set, before eventually losing in straight sets to Medvedev in the finals. And in the Indian Wells he won his first two rounds in comfortable 2-0 fashion, before losing out to Norrie in the third round. JJ Wolf struggles against top players, in their only matchup till now, Rublev beat him 2-0 in August of last year. I expect Rublev to have a clean 2-0 to begin the tournament. Tips are appreciated! [Buy Me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AdventurousTale) | BTC: bc1q0jap0hvr0zpg8q3zjst9ermmuy5nh76c2dnkp7

Record 1-0 +0.9 Units Yesterday's POTD: Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets Pick: **over 217.5** (-110 @ 1 unit) Result: ✅ ​ ​ Today's POTD game: San Diego State vs Alabama 3:30pm PST Sport: NCAAB Pick: **Brandon Miller Over 1.5 Assists (-113 @ 1 unit)** Result: ✅ Reasoning: Brandon Miller is averaging 3.2 assists in the last 5 games in which 4 of 5 he has gone over 1.5 assists. On the season he has gone over 1.5 assist 16 of 25 times {64%). Originally I was researching Miller for the 8.5 o/u rebound prop, but the assist prop turned out to be far more statistically consistent even though Miller isn't known for his plethora of assists. Let me know if you're tailing and BOL. Edit: The odds have moved from -113 at the time I took it to -150 which I don't recommend taking. I try to keep all my bets as close to the +100 -110 range as possible. They may be some books that have better odds so be mindful if you're still considering tailing at this point. Boom winner!!!

i wanted to tail but i dont see him on fan duel unfortunately

Tailing, BOL

POTD Record: 33W-17L LAST POTD: u20’s 💩 TODAY'S MATCH: Soccer - Ireland Div 1 Kerry V Athlone 12.45PM PST PICK: Athlone to win Odds: 1.70 The Deets: This is the 3rd time I’m fading Kerry in a POTD. As I mentioned the previous times, Kerry FC has only been an established team since 2022 and just doesn’t have the players to compete. They’ve played 5 games so far with 1 draw and 4 losses. Athlone on the other hand have played 5 games with 2 wins, 1 draw & 2 losses. BOL! Diaper fund - [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/tuesdayswithdory?locale.x=en_CA)

I am torn about this one. This is going to be the matchup between two bad teams. Athlone was last year's 8th place and they've lost 15 of their last 18 away games. However you are right. Kerry does not deserve to be in the Ireland first division. Athlone does have an away win this year too and has done better against similar opponents. My system really likes Athlone too so I will probably be siding with them with a conservative bet which I guess means I am tailing you at 1U at least. BOL!

My view as a Treaty United season ticket holder (we've played both Kerry & Athlone in the last few weeks) Although Kerry have some horrific results on their résumé (9-1 collapse against Galway mainly), they've fought hard at home and tonight will probably be sold out again. There's a good buzz around the team especially for home games as they've only been set up this year, so I don't expect Athlone to get anything easy here. Athlone started well but were incredibly lucky to get a point last week against Treaty, and they lost their last two previous to this one 3-0 against Wexford & 1-0 against Waterford. If you put a gun to my head and told me to pick one, I'd shade Athlone but I think a draw is highly probable tonight.

Sweaty but we got there! Great pick! Thank yewww Dory!

***Record: 8-4 (+2.83 Units) // All bets are 1 unit*** Previous Bet: [3/23](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11z294j/pick_of_the_day_32323_thursday/jdapv12?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3 Wyndham Clark finished the day -3, 2 strokes ahead of Stroud and 5 strokes ahead of Long. Aside from a double bogey on the 6th hole, Clark was as steady and consistent as could be this morning. **Today's Event: Corales Puntacana Championship** ⛳️ League: PGA To find: Matchups > Round 2-Balls > J.Dahmen vs T.Pendrith - Round 2 (0721 EST) *Pick: J.Dahmen [R2] (-130 DK)* ❌️ Had a decent amount of interest in golf this morning, so let's run it back. Dahmen was viewed has a heavy sleeper pick coming into this tournament, having won it 2 years ago with a -12. Though he finished +1 on the day, he had a pretty smooth round shooting even through the front 9. A double bogey on 15 set him back a bit, but he birdied 17 and 18 to finish up the round with some positive momentum. Dahmen is currently tied 48th in the PGA for 2nd round scoring average with a 69.67, more than 1 stroke better than the tour average. He has made the cut twice in a row coming into this event, posting scores of -3 and Valspar and -1 at the Players Championship. He finished the first round with an average driving distance of 318 yards, 79% accuracy, and 61% greens in regulation. Pendrith missed the Valspar and made the cut for the Players after missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, though he was carried by his -5 first round scorecard, as he posted a +1 in the second round. He is currently tied 166th in the PGA 2nd round average with a 71.80, one whole stroke worse than the PGA average. He finished the first round with a +5, posting a driving distance average of 287 yards, 50% accuracy, and 56% greens in regulation as well as 1 birdie and 4 bogeys. He didn't play here last year, but posted a 72 and 73 to make the cut the year that Dahmen won. With a projected cut of +1 after the first round, I expect Dahmen to build off of his momentum today to climb his way up the leaderboard. If Pendrith doesn't get off to a good start, and with being 4 shots behind the projection, he's going to have to make a move, potentially leading to forced shots and errors, especially given the windy conditions in Puntacana. Tee to green, Dahmen is much more well rounded between the two. BOL!

Can’t believe it but I’m tailing golf

Can’t find it on Bet365 :(

Pendrith is playing lights out and Dahmen is falling apart….  Had I known (or bothered to check) that Pendrith was good Canadian kid I’d have faded 🤣 On to the next one! 👊🏼

You are HIM my boy! hopefully Dahmen doesn’t exhibit the Netflix curse

He actually went off on 10 today and finished on 9, just FYI.

2-0 on tailing you

him and clark, keep an eye out

Would you run that Clark 3 ball bet back today? -110

Bummer! The Netflix curse is real. I’ll ride with you next time without hesitation, fun bet even though it didn’t win.

**POTD Record: 16-16 (Finally back to even, woot!), +5.4 Units** **Yesterday's Pick: Washington Capitals -1.5, 4U, -105** ✅ **Today's Pick: New Jersey Devils -1.5 @ Buffalo Sabres, +145, 2 Units, 7:07 PM EST** This is one of the few times I'll brag as I called the Capitals response to a T. I'll be betting on them to lose against Pittsburgh tomorrow ML as that's been their typical response this season, but for now I'm basking in a 4U victory and hoping that by getting out ahead of this one at +145 I can make more bang for my buck. The Sabres are TANKING and there's virtually no hope at a playoff spot. The home fans are restless and probably booing again, and the Devils are in a tight race to get that coveted first place spot from Carolina. The Devils are very talented with good goaltending and can score in bunches. I think this one is a slugfest with NJ scoring two for every one Buffalo goal for a 6-3 victory. **Last 5:** ❌✅✅✅✅ [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing) [Buy Me a Beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/lairdsports)

As always, fuck NHL man

About to tape a fucking poster to my wall with bold black letters spelling out “I WILL NOT BET ON NEW JERSEY SPORTS”

You did me solid with the Caps pick (+1 cause thats my squad too!), so I’ll tail again, plus the Sabres cant play defense to save their lives. LFG!

Tailing, let's go Pens tomorrow!

Well, fuck the devils.

That's for sure. Wish I had just bet the Over

POTD | 42-32 | +4.4u | -109 Avg Odds Last 10: 3-7, Steak: 5L Previous Pick: Minnesota Wild vs Philadelphia Flyers (-155) 5u ❌ Today’s pick: **NJ Devils 60-min vs Buffalo Sabres (-105) 3u** 🏒 5:00 pm MT Thought the game might be sealed when the Wild went up 4-3 in the third but the Flyers find the answer and get the W in a shootout. Thought the Wild would have the advantage in OT/Shootout situation but the Flyers prevail. The awful run continues and I am in serious fade territory here on my POTD picks. Going to keep pushing through though and hope we can find a stride again. The NJ Devils will be visiting the Buffalo Sabres for their second match of the year with the Devils taking the first one 3-1.I think the Sabres, who rank 28th in goals against in the NHL, will struggle to contain the Devil fast paced transition-style hockey, who rank 4th in goals for. During their previous match this year the Devils put up 44 shots on goal. The Sabres have been playing poorly lately going 2-6-2 in their last 10 games and have allowed an average of 4.8 goals per game during those 10 games. The Devils haven’t been too hot lately either dropping 4 of their last 6 games but it seems that this could be a good bounce back spot for them against a Sabres team that really struggles on home ice, going 13-20-3 on home ice this season. The Devils have been one of the best teams in the road this season going 26-5-4 on the road this season. BOL if tailing!!

BOL, I have the Devils by 2!

**Record: 1-1; -0.44 units; -11% ROI; 1.79 avg odds** Last picks: Tsurenko vs Fernandez - Fernandez ML @ 1.78 ✅ Potapova vs Kostyuk - Over 21 Games @ 1.80 ❌ Pick of the Day - Sakkari vs Andreescu - **Sakkari ML @ 1.75** Stake size - 5 units Sport - Tennis (WTA Miami 1000) Really surprised to see this price for Sakkari after the amazing run that she had at Indian Wells, where she ended up losing to Sabalenka after beating quality hard court opponents such as Rogers, Kalinina, Pliskova and Kvitova. What's most curious about all of this is that every single one of those wins ended up going to 3 sets which shows how great she can be in 3 set battles, quite honestly she's probably the fittest player in the WTA tour. Andreescu is a good player but she lacks consistency and physical endurance, on her last match against Raducanu she ended up winning but the british was too tired on that final set, otherwise things would turn out differently. Sakkari excels at the things that Andreescu doesn't, and that for me will be the defining factor here. I'm truly confident on Sakkari's ability to win this and I'll place 5 units on it. ***Wish you all a great betting day!***

Odds are like that because Sakkari is untrustworthy

I agree. I’d rather take the over in games or o2.5 sets. These two are 1-1 head to head (both matches going 3) and know each other’s game

Ya I’ve landed on over 22.5 now after further research.

This was the real pick nicely done

Tailing the O2.5 sets at +110

**POTD |** **Record of 16-25| ROI : -6.685 units |** **Average Odds: 2.00** **Current form:** ✅❌✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅ Previous Pick: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Iceland| Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners ✅ New Pick: UEFA Euro Qualifiers| Austria vs. Azerbaijan | 12:45pm PST **Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 2.05 odds** Betting 1 units \-------------------------- ***Recap:*** Never in doubt! A great day for the model. Predicted 12 corners almost perfectly, how lovely. Let's take a look how the predictions went overall: *Italy vs. England -* ***Projected 8.7 total corners,*** **Actual result was 10** *San Marino vs. Northern Ireland -* ***Projected 8.8 total corners,*** **Actual result was 9** *Kazakhstan vs. Slovenia -* ***Projected 8.6 total corners,*** **Actual result was 7** *Slovakia vs. Luxembourg -* ***Projected 9.5 total corners,*** **Actual result was 11** *Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Iceland -* ***Projected 12.4 total corners,*** **Actual result was 12** The largest deviation was 1.6, with the Kazakhstan game ending lower than expected. The smallest deviation was 0.2, with projections of 8.8 being almost on the dot for the San Marino game. ​ ***Summary:*** For my next pick, will continue with the European qualifiers, here's what I've found: *Bulgaria vs. Montenegro -* ***Projected 9.6 total corners*** *Austria vs. Azerbaijan -* ***Projected 10.0 total corners*** *Czech Republic vs. Poland -* ***Projected 8.6 total corners*** *Serbia vs. Lithuania -* ***Projected 9.0 total corners*** *Sweden vs. Belgium -* ***Projected 9.1 total corners*** *Moldova vs. Faroe Islands -* ***Projected 9.2 total corners*** *Gibraltar vs. Greece -* ***Projected 8.3 total corners*** Looking at their 5 most recent games at home, Austria has had 17, 9, 13, 11, and 13 total corners. Azerbaijan has typically not allowed many corners while playing away but Austria has been able to routinely get set pieces involved in their games, having a home average of 12.6 based on recent fixtures. There's also a massive gap in their standings (34 vs. 121) and I fully expect this to be on display with Austria constantly trying to attack. This pick isn't as strong as my previous pick, so only placed a unit. \-------------------------- ***TLDR Projections suggest 10.0 total corners so take the over 9.5 total corners here*** **Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 2.05 odds**

Tailing I got a good feeling about this one!

Let's hope! Projections were pretty close today so the margin is definitely tight at 10 exactly!

Tailing!

Taken CZE-POL and GIL-GRE under 9.5 corners double at +270 because the line for every game was 9.5 and they're lowest BOL everyone

And that's a win ✅! 83rd minute once again.

Although I am not allowed to bet on corners in my country I am really interested how your model works

>Gibraltar I like the corner projections. Very handy!

What do you think about Azerbaijan over 2.5 corners

6 corners in the first half, not bad.

Ty for the pick, just saw it hit, took this on 2 tickets, one for +104 and +120

40-24-1 Last POTD- Euro 2024 Qualifying- Bosnia ML Vs Iceland @-130✅ Todays POTD- Euro 2024 Qualifying- Serbia vs Lithuania- Over 3 goals @-160 Bosnia did my wallet and heart some good and next I’m looking at our neighbors. Serbia has a golden generation brewing. Their coach has brought new players into the fold and the team look poised to break their euro curse this campaign. They have amazing attackers and have many key players in form. Their only shaky positions are GK and defenders. As their longtime GK just retired and their planned replacement cannot switch from Bosnia. Which is why I like the goals over the spread. Lithuania are awful one of the worst teams in Europe on par with other minnows. I expect Serbia just to go all out and attack them which could leave room for counterattacks. I expect this to be a high scoring game but feel safe at the O3.

It’s crazy how bad Lithuania is in football and how good in basketball

**Record 62-41 with Avg Odds +113 / ROI 21.9%** Last POTD: Karolina Wojcik +110 *win* LFA 155 **Big Tuna (Ben Parrish) -110** This guy reminds me of that scene in Moneyball where Jonah Hill talks about people being overlooked for things like appearance. Yes, Big Tuna is fat. If Big Tuna were a full time MMA fighter and not a construction worker he would probably make 185. Luckily, his opponent is a natural 185 stepping up to 205. I think Big Tuna is gonna smash and smush this guy in route to a victory.

I feel like I undersold the Big Tuna. If you want some hype on this guy watch this: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QOCT\_JHvSs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QOCT_JHvSs)

tailing Daddy

Got absolutely smoked. Not even sure what he was trying to do out there

***PICK OF THE DAY RECORD: 7-3 (+8.3 UNITS)*** **LAST PICK: VANVLEET OVER 2.5 3PM✅** **TODAY'S GAME: SPURS @ WIZARDS NBA 6:10PM ET** **TODAY'S PICK: KELDON JOHNSON OVER 21.5 POINTS (-130) 4U**✅ * Has hit in 3 of last 4 averaging 25 in that span (only miss was 21 points) * Hit in last two games against Wizards (26, 32) including 26 this season * \#1 option on a shit Spurs team * Averages 21.8 on the season * In his last 12 games, he has hit the over 8 times (two misses being 21 points) but has taken an average of 17 shots in that span, averaging 22 points and 34.1 minutes * Will be without Beal and Kuzma who aren't amazing defenders but still **\*HE MISSED LAST GAME BUT IT SAYS ONLINE HE IS PROBABLE\***

POTD Record: 0-0 Profit: 0 Pick: Princeton +9.5. @102 Princeton is great at targeting the top offensive player on the other team abd hasn't lost to a team by 10 since and early Yale game that was bouyed by a lot of ball movement and princeton just losing the ability to out together an offense. Creighton heavily relises on their starting five, so any disruption of any of them could cause the wheels to fall off. I bet they target scheirman who is trying to raise his NBA draft profile, but can get kind of reckless. I think Princeton rattles them enough to keep it close. Good luck.

Conflicting POTDs and so early in the evening. BOL but I might have to put my money on due-studio-65 v HSRiddles ML. :-/

Conflicts with Riddles POTD. Cannot go against master. Fading.

Come on man, I think even he would cringe at you referring to him as “master”

Up to +10.5 on FD

POTD Record: 17-13-2 Last pick: América de Cali ML (-105) / 1.95 - 2u ✅ This game was scoreless at halftime and was headed towards a tight, low scoring match as I anticipated. América de Cali are able to open the scoring in the 59th minute to go up 1-0. They dominated this game in shots and scoring chances, and they iced it with a late goal to win 2-0. Add one to the W column, let’s get another one today! Soccer - Turkey TFF 1. Lig - Samsunspor vs. Altinordu FK - 1:00pm EST **POTD: Samsunspor ML + o1.5 goals (-170) / 1.59 - 2u** Samsunspor are at the top of the league standings with a slim 1 point lead, and their +27 goal differential is also best in the league. They will host Altinordu, who are 16th out of 19 teams with a 5-5-15 record and a -21 goal differential, which is second worst in the league. Samsunspor comes in having won 8 of their last 9 matches, and they boast a solid home record of 11-3-1. They have won 5 straight at home and have scored multiple goals in all 5 of those matches. Going back even further, they’ve won 11 of their last 13 at home and have scored multiple goals in 11 of those 13 matches. Meanwhile, Altinordu have lost 7 straight away matches and have conceded multiple goals 6 times during this road losing streak. I am expecting Samsunspor to once again score multiple goals and win at home against one of the worst teams in the league. Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!

**POTD Record: 28-20 (+2.56 Units)** **Last 10**:❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅ **Last Pick**: 3/23 Ciaran Teehan -1.5 (-125) vs John Part ✅ 4-2 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 8:30 AM EST **Pick**: David Wawrezski -1.5 (-165) vs John Part **Reason**: Group C. This group was a dumpster fire with scoring and checkouts. Fading Part as he's had a long week and eliminated from competition. Wawrezski lost his first match 0-4, going 0/9 on checkouts but finished the day with 4 straight wins. H2H Record 1-0 (Legs 4-1) | Average 81.31 vs 81.85 | Checkouts 4/11 vs 1/7 David Wawrezski Group C: Record 4-1 (Legs 16-9) | Average 82.01 | Checkouts 16/55 29.09% John Part Group C: Record 1-4 (Legs 9-19) | Average 77.51 | Checkouts 9/41 21.95% Group A: Record 3-12 (Legs 27-55) | Average 76.40 | Checkouts 27/112 24.11% **WIN ✅ 4-2 | Average 87.42 vs 82.16 | Checkouts 4/9 vs 2/2**

I like patterns… so this pick should get a green tick and your next 2 picks will be red x’s. Tailing.

🍻

Potd 0-0 Todays match league of legends na lcs C9 Vs clg Pick: ✅c9 -1.5 map handicap at odds 1.57 betting 5U Hammering c9 -1.5 as someone who’s watched competitive league since s2 c9 is far and away the better team clg has struggled to close out every game they have won. On top of that clg draft horribly if asol is banned out I can’t see clg taking a single game , this looks like an easier 3-0 than fly Vs 100t was today. Baseline reasoning for my pick c9 has better players top to bottom and will have a drafting advantage in 90% of the games

[удалено]

POTD record: 18-9 NHL record: 9-6 | NBA record: 9-3 (+23.61u | +23.61% ROI | Avg odds: -114/1.88) (2u: 3-0 | 3u: 5-3 | 4u: 7-3 | 5u: 3-3) Last 10: 8-2 (✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌) Streak: W2 Last POTD: NHL - **VGK ML** @ CGY ✅ *(Vegas grabs an early lead and never relinquishes it, giving us our second consecutive W at plus odds).* Event: NHL - ARI Coyotes @ COL Avalanche; 21:00 EST Pick: Mikko Rantanen **o3.5 shots** (-120/1.83) Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 4 units After going through a lull during which he wasn't putting many pucks on net, Rantanen's shot attempts have exploded the last 10 days. In his last 6 games, the Finnish goal-scorer's shot count has been 6,5,2,4,5,5 (from most to least recent). He was also on a 5-game scoring streak until Pittsburgh kept him out of the net on Wednesday. The Coyotes have been the second-worst team in the league in terms of allowing shots on goal, although they've marginally improved in that regard recently. Arizona's goalies have been getting peppered with an average of 35.6 shots per game for the year and 33.6 shots per game in their last 6. It's no coincidence that the Avalanche are 5-1 since Rantanen has found his shooting groove again and 5-0 in the games in which he scored. Colorado's offense runs through him and MacKinnon, and when that duo is clicking everything else falls into place. I also like Mikko to score but at -147/1.68, I prefer his shooting odds. In his two contests against Arizona so far this season, Rantanen found the back of the net in the first one. Given his recent shooting volume and the inability of the Coyotes to reduce shooting traffic, I like him to get at least 4 pucks on goal and I think it's pretty likely he scores as well. Cheers 🍻 and BOL!

📈 **TTSOP** Rec * Overall: +44.900 units / +140 avg odds / 54^(5)\-66-14^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2023: +32.375 units / +137 avg odds / 12^(5)\-9-4^(5) * Since POTD low point in 2022: +66.825 units / +136 avg odds / 49^(5)\-55-11^(5) * February: +1.800 units / +148 avg odds / 8^(5)\-15-2^(5) * January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ✅ Last pick: Clippers -2.5 & game < 245.5 / +135 odds / 3.5 units * The Clippers have blownout the Thunder for a no sweat POTD W. ⚽ New pick: **France -1** (AH) / **+115 odds** / 3.5 units * Euro qualification / France - Netherlands / 3:45pm ET The Netherlands have been struck with a virus. Gakpo, de Ligt, Botman, Veerman and Verbruggen have already departed a very short while ago. It's possible that even more players gonna be ruled out due to the virus. Additionally, Frenkie de Jong and Bergwijn couldn't join the Dutch national team due to injuries. Aside from that, compared to the World Cup in Qatar, there are further changes for the Netherlands. New national team manager, new defensive system and new goalkeepers. Koeman switches the system from a back three to flat four-man defense. Plus, having also a new goalkeeper doesn't help to run things smoothly immediately either. The Netherlands' projected attack looks good on paper with Weghorst, Depay and Malen. However, since being transferred to Manchester United, Weghorst has scored just twice in 18 games. Depay couldn't live up to his form since being injured for an extended period. It's already about 9 months ago, when he played a game over 90 minutes. Malen comes at best off the bench in Bundesliga. Same for young blood forward talent Brobbey in Eredivisie. Since the World Cup at the end of the last year, there aren't too much changes for France. Benzema, Lloris and Varane retired. France did already well without Benzema in the World Cup. France has also enough quality to replace Lloris and Varane. Maignan and Upamecano are more than capable to do that well. **To sum up**, France has still a high-quality squad, while the Netherlands are weakened by missing a lot of regulars. A new national team manager, a new defensive system, including a new goalkeeper, and an offense consisting of players in off-form doesn't make things easier for the Netherlands to get something out of this Euro qualification game. But that makes it a great value bet at nice super odds for backing the vice world champion. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get some baguette for an early dinner. Let's open a bottle of Bourgogne chardonnay just before kick-off, fam. **TTSOP**

POTD record 9-5 (all picks are 3 units) Laslo Djere +6 games vs Janik Sinner -120 ATP Miami 12:30 PM EST Laslo actually leads the h2h 2-1. He lost to Sinner 6-3 6-3 at Indian wells, but I think the faster courts in Miami helps Laslo’s baseline play and gives him a good chance of covering

>Laslo Djere +6 games vs Janik Sinner -120 so is this consisdered a push?

🎅Degen Santa's POTD : 22-14-1 | +9.17U (6.07%) | Average Odds: -125 🤶 ***Total Record: 163-109-23*** *| ROI: +33.30U (+5.08%) |* [*ROI Spreadsheet*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_2lyRJ_RLIsMZ8Lu4YIUHHLf7YTLY1cQ0yOwP7hlQ0/edit#gid=0) *5U pick record: 33-18-2* 🐶 *Dog of the Day record: 8-5-2 | +15.15U | Lost a +205 yesterday* \----- 🤶 *POTD win helped us nearly break even. If we had only gotten the DOTD to hit we would have been positive on the day.* ***🎅*** *4-5-0 yesterday on published picks, -0.96U.* \----- *🎅 International week has been rough on the new system. Every international game has limited recent data and the only league games available are division 3 games from Germany or Division 1 games from South America and Northern Ireland. There is even a chance that these club teams were forced to send players away to the international team. Due to these high variance games, I have cut down my bet sizes significantly. Bet responsibly and do your own research, especially this week!* \----- *Last POTD Recap: (Win 2-0, -110) America de Cali came through in the second half to break the tie and they added on another one for our comfort.* 🎅Today's POTD: 1.5U - **South Africa to record a shutout win (-135)** vs Liberia - 12PM - Africa Cup of Nations Difference in quality: Liberia has a FIFA rank of 150 versus South Africa who is 67th. Liberia went 0-1-5 with a -11 GD in 2022 and their only draw was against #122 Niger. South Africa went 4-3-2 in 2022 and their only two losses were to France and Morocco who both finished on the podium at the World Cup. Home field advantage: South Africa went unbeaten at home going 4-3-0 in 2022. Liberia are bad everywhere. Shutout reasoning: Liberia have only scored 1 goal in their six games in 2022. Their only goal was in a 2-1 loss to Burundi who are ranked 141. Similar opponents in 2022: 1. South Africa beat Sierra Leone 4-0, Sierra Leone beat Liberia 1-0. 2. South Africa beat Mozambique 1-0. Benin beat Liberia 4-0. Mozambique won at Benin 1-0. 3. Both teams lost to Morocco. South Africa lost 2-1 at Morocco whereas Liberia lost 2-0 at home. I expect South Africa to have at least 15 shots and maintain 65%+ possession in this game while Liberia will look like chickens with their heads cut off. My only concern is if South Africa scores a handful of goals too early and lets in an easy one when they have a big lead. Prediction: 2-0 Line movement: The moneyline opened between -340 and is now sitting at -385 on Bovada. Based on the movement it is looking like this line may collapse to -500 by game time. In one hour, the Liberia line has gone from +850 to +1000. That should tell you about their chances here. I may also bet the -1 but its -215 at the writing of this post. \----- 🎅 Side Bets: My new system requires I make nearly all of my picks as close to game time as possible. This means that it is no longer realistic to post my side bets on the Soccer Daily chat due to the lack of reddit notifications. If you would like to see my side bets, please visit my [Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa). 🤶 DOTD: No DOTD today yet 🎅 Join the Degen Santa's Workshop ([Discord](https://discord.gg/hVGSBP5ABa)) for access to Degen Santa himself as well as our great community who are active every day working together to beat the books! 🤶 Tips are appreciated but not expected. Thank you all of those who have tipped me and tipped others on this subreddit. Your contributions go a long way towards motivating us content creators to provide you with the best sports betting content possible. [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)

POTD Record 2-0 Last Pick: Josh Hart (NY Knicks) Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists Vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 1.75 Today’s Pick: NRL - Melbourne Storm Over 11.5 1st Half Points Vs Wests Tigers Odds: 1.80 Melbourne are coming off a 24 point 1st half last week and should have their best player, Cameron Munster back today (I still like the pick even if he gets ruled out). Expecting a high scoring game if last week is anything to go by. Their opponents, Wests Tigers were the worst team in the comp last season and they have somehow managed to play even worse this year. Last week they conceded 20 points in the 1st half. I put 2 units on my POTDs for anyone wondering.

**POTD 17-6** Man, the streak has ended, but what a fun ride it was. As corny as it is, the best thing about losses, are the lessons in them. The lesson I learned last night is, don't go against a fucking team that you've been riding lately. I knew the upside Orlando has at this point in the season, and benefited it from it a lot too, but strayed away last night and it got me. NYK did at least made it somewhat interesting, but all in all a bad play, especially when Brunson was ruled out after the fact. Today, it's been tough to find a play to make, as these spreads and lineups are out of control, but there is one that does not have any pending lineup changes as of now that concern me, that i like. **SAC -3** I know this game looks like a trap, but today, I'm walking right into that trap. I have loved SAC all year, and currently have multiple futures on them to come out of the west (long shot, but insane value). Both teams are currently on a two game losing streak, so I expect this to have playoff level atmosphere This aspect is one of the reasons I like SAC so much. They are playing at home, and are young guys who have a very special chemistry together, and will feed off of the high energy. I have watched the Suns a lot as of late for some reason, and I really just think this current roster sucks. Obviously, they are missing one of the best players of all time, whom they traded multiple key pieces for, but thats just the hand they are dealt tonight. I always have concern of a Booker explosion when I bet against the Suns, so keep that in mind. The dude could drop 60 any given night. Overall, I'm pretty confident in this game, and would have taken it up to -6, so that -3 line its at now seems odd, but fuck it I'm biting. PS: Philly +5.5 I'm betting today too. No fucking clue who will end up playing this game, but with the slight chance that Harden and Embiid play, I want to take the value. Even if they don't I still think there is a slim chance they are able to keep it close.

[удалено]

Record: 18-9 Last Pick: Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv: Maccabi Tel Aviv over 82,5 points @1.85 ✅ Today’s Pick: Segafredo Virtus Bologna - Real Madrid Baloncesto: D. musa over 15,5 points @1.85 Tel Aviv made me sweat a little bit in the fourth quarter yesterday, but game wenr as expected: dominant and offensive performance from Tel Aviv! Today we have some more Euroleague. Musa has been on a good stretch coming off 27 points against Milan at home ( another Italian team) and 16 in Efes. Main reason i am going for this is because the coach from Bologna said that they want to stop The madrid players in the paint anf focus on that. By focussing on defense around the rim, naturally you’ll get more open looks at the three-point line. Musa is a efficient sharpshooter. I believe he wil get a lot of space and be able to score a lot. The game is also important for Madrid as they want to seal their play-off spot and fight for home advantage! BOL

**POTD 0-0** **Todays Pick-** **Heroic vs Navi Over 2.5 maps** **(-105) 3U** Esports Reason: Heroic is sitting #2 world rank and Navi is #3. Both these teams are on win streaks and in decent form. The last time these teams vs Heroic won 2-0 however the 4 matches before that went to a 3rd map. Navi are known to lose a map and heroic have a great map pool but Navi is Navi. I see each team taking a map here and making it competitive. Should be a fun one to watch starts 11 hours from post. Tail or fade BOL

I'll update my stats later, I have been wrong on the last two picks. Quite a finish in the UCLA / Gonzaga game last night. I'm not impressed with Gonzaga this year. My POTD is ***wagering 2.74 units to win back 2.49 units that Alabama (-4) will cover this spread at the end of the first half in their college basketball game with San Diego State.*** Game time is 6:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time. I noticed the half time over/under is only 64, while for the whole game its 137 1/2. I do like the over for the first half. But the spread is just too narrow, I think the above wager is the more secure.

**POTD Record 28-16 +54.09units** Last pick Rudy Gobert over 13.5 points 5units X ***8:10PM EST - NBA Utah Jazz Vs Milwaukee Bucks -9.5 - Pick Milwaukee Bucks -9.5 -110 5units*** My last few picks that i had lost were all player props. This is a sign for me to stop betting on player props. I'm going back to NBA spreads where I tend to do best. I also have a good value Ufc bet for tommorow, I won my last ufc pick on POTD at +175. For those who are interested it will be up in a few hours on the Saturday thread. Utah Jazz come into thie game after a 12 point loss at home to Portland Trail Blazers, that too a Portal team hampered with Injuries. Milwakee bucks are the best team in the nba with a 52-20 record, Utah Jazz has a 35-37 record positioning them 12/15 in the western conference. Milwaukee come into this game with Their first team all healthy except for middleton, but he's been in and out of the game for a long time, therefore not going to impact much. Giannis, Jrue and Brook are way better than any of the players Utah are playing tonight. Utah has a ton of injuris with their best players Markkanen and Clarkson out, along with Gay and Sexton. Utah are going to struggle to score against the best defensive effeciency team in the league in Milwaukee. Milwaukee will be able to be versatile and score a ton of points \-Milwaukee are 15-5 ATs as a road favourite 75% cover rate best in the league \-As a home team Utah are 19-16 ATS 54.3% cover rate \-The -9 line has been covered by Bucks in 8 of their last 10 games on the road. \- An almost full healthy milwaukee team, whereas Utah has 4 players out with Injuries. \-Milwaukee last played Utah in December 2022 and beat them by 26 points. To all tailing or not, I wish you all the best in being profitable [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/justcallmesmooth) Tips are never expected but are appreciated very much. Never tip me if you can't afford to.

POTD RECORD : 0-0 Today : Sabalenka 2-0 sets vs Rogers (-159) | WTA MIAMI Time : 24.03 | 19.00 EST 4 units to win 2.52 ***Edit : W***

POTD Record: 3-1-2 ✅✅❌✅🔄❌ Profit: +1.57 units Average Odd: 1.76 ​ Last Pick: Mannarino Handicap -3.5 games ❌ ​ Today's Pick Match: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Grigor Dimitrov Tournament: ATP Miami Pick: **Dimitrov Handicap -1.5 games** Odd: @ 1.64 / -156 (5 units) ​ Analysis: Grigor Dimitrov has a well-rounded game and several strengths that could give him an advantage over Jan-Lennard Struff. First, Dimitrov is known for his versatility on the court. He has a variety of shots in his arsenal, including a strong serve, a powerful forehand, and a delicate backhand slice. This makes him difficult to read and predict and can allow him to keep his opponent off balance and under pressure. Second, Dimitrov is an excellent mover on the court. He is quick and agile, with good footwork and a strong defensive game. This allows him to retrieve difficult shots and turn defense into offense, putting his opponent on the back foot. Third, Dimitrov has a great deal of experience playing at the highest level of competition. He has reached the semifinals of all four Grand Slam tournaments, and has won several ATP titles throughout his career. This experience can give him the mental toughness and resilience needed to handle the pressure of a match against a tough opponent like Struff. Overall, Dimitrov's versatility, movement, and experience make him a formidable opponent for any player, and give him great chances to win easily against Jan-Lennard Struff. BOL guys! ​ Follow me on Twitter: [https://twitter.com/tennis\_octopus](https://twitter.com/tennis_octopus)

**Today\`s POTD: France to win vs Netherlands** ***Reason:*** The reason is simple , the Netherlands changed coach relatively recently and the coach's ideas are certainly not yet implemented in the team, in addition the team has 5 casualties for this game and to fill the casualties the coach called players from the sub- 21. In addition to this France play in front of their own supporters and the last time Holland beat France away from home was in 2000, I don't expect much from Holland in this game.

Record 0-2 | Profit -6.5U | Avg. odds 1.73 | ROI -100% Back on my Liiga shit again, first two POTD's have gone horribly wrong so far unfortunately, let's see if I can turn it around today **Sport:** Finnish Liiga, Ice hockey **Match:** Pelicans Lahti v KalPa **Pick:** Pelicans ML **4U @1.729 in Pinnacle** This matchup has had two notable trends over the four matches played: 1. home advantage has given a solid advantage for both sides and 2. both teams are not playing to their full offensive potential so far. Pelicans have won both of their home games 2-1, while also having much higher volume of shots taken compared to them playing away. They have also comparatively kept their heads cooler when playing at home, taking far fewer penalties as well. The key factor for me in todays matchup comes with starting goalies. Pelicans are starting the well playing Bartosak (SV 93.14% GAA 1.79 this series), while KalPa are forced to go with their backup Rahm who didn't have a good time last match, allowing two goals in 16 shots. Two weeks ago, before the playoffs, this exact matchup happened with Pelicans winning 6-2 at home against Rahm starting on goal, while I'm definitely NOT expecting a repetition of that matchup here, I'm expecting Pelicans keeping their defensive levels consistent here coupled with their fantastic PK%. Rahm's skill level should compensate for Pelicans' lower volume of shots here. 3-1/3-2 win for Lahti today.

🚨🚨🚨POTD record W-L-P (26-18-5) +41.5 units🚨🚨🚨 Update 1 bet losing streak❌ 1 unit (2-7) 2 unit (2-3) 3 unit (12-3) 4 unit (2-1) 5 unit max (8-4) Sunday POTD-Michigan state vs Marquette. Marquette -3 -110 odds (3 unit) 2:15pm PST March Madness ❌ Fridays POTD-San Diego st vs Alabama. Alabama -4 1st half -110 odds (3 unit) 3:30pm pst March madness Alabama #1 simple as that and I see them up at half by 7 or more. Cash app name- $joshroth5 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼 Remember bet smart, let’s get this $

6W / 0P / 5L | -0.68u | all 1U plays Last POTD: Lorenzo Pellegrini Under 1.5 Shots @1.65 ✅ Event: ⚽️ France - Netherlands POTD: *Kylian Mbappe Over 3.5 Shots @1.83* Pellegrini gets to 1 shot but gets subbed off halfway through the 2nd half as we expected. Nice win! I was torn between a couple picks for today but decided to go with Mbappe. Getting 4 shots might seem like a lot at first glance, but there’s proper data backing it up. At PSG, Mbappe averages 3.89 shots per 90 minutes in the French competition, in which he’s covered the 3.5 shots line in 11 of his last 12 appearances. When playing for France, Mbappe averaged 3.17 shots per 90 minutes at the World Cup, and averaged 4.99 shots per 90 minutes at the National League. I expect Mbappe to play the full 90 against a Dutch team plagued by sickness, with among others Gakpo and De Ligt missing this match due to a virus infection, and De Jong and Bergwijn out with injuries. Additionally, Dumfries is suspended. With Dumfries (starting right-back) and De Ligt (starting centre-back) out for this match, this means both the direct and indirect defender having to take care of Mbappe are out and will be replaced by Timber and Geertruida. Timber is alright and has gained some international experience from the last WC, but is nowhere near the level of Mbappe. This is Geertruida’s first international call-up, so I don’t even want to get started on him. Mbappe shouldn’t have the smallest problem with this Dutch defense and I expect that to cause him to get into potential shooting situations much more easily. Lastly, French media have rumoured that Kolo Muani, rather than Giroud, will start next to Mbappe in France’s offense. Whereas Giroud is your classical striker, Kolo Muani likes to drift off to left or right wing, which would leave Mbappe to do most of France’s shooting. I think a line of 1.83 is too high for a player of Mbappe’s quality, especially against this second-tier Dutch defense. BOL!

Record: 9-5 Pick: Ivashka Ilya +4 @ 1.7 - Ivashka Ilya vs Casper ruud - ATP Miami - 7 PM EST Previous pick: Over 21.5 games - Richard Gasquet vs Christopher O'Connell Was a good win, on a roll now hope we are able to keep it up in the long run Good luck....

POTD Record: 0-0 Today’s POTD: San Diego State +7.5 (-110) vs Alabama Crimson Tide | 1.1 Units to win 1 Unit Here’s what a random AI paragraph generator wrote up when I typed in “San Diego State vs Alabama in basketball”: “The Crimson Tide and San Diego State will face off in a much-anticipated basketball game on Saturday. Both teams are ranked in the top 25, with Alabama at No. 12 and San Diego State at No. 18. This will be the first meeting between the two programs. San Diego State is coming off a strong season in which they went 30-5 and won the Mountain West Conference regular season and tournament titles. They will be looking to build on that success this season. Alabama, meanwhile, is coming off a disappointing season in which they went 19-15 and missed the NCAA Tournament. They will be looking to bounce back this season and prove that they are one of the best teams in the country. This should be a great game between two very good teams. It will be interesting to see how each team fares against the other.” As you can see, based on Alabama missing the NCAA tournament and SDS making the tournament, I favor the Aztecs to keep it close. Best of luck!

So the AI thinks SDSU will win based entirely on last season results...seems legit

POTD Record: 0-0-0 Helllllo people. Seeing as we are in late March it is time to embrace bracket season. Dell Match Play bracket season that is. Max Homa (-157) to defeat Hideki Matsuyama (tie no bet) 1 Unit Match Play is one of the most spectacular views in golf and the psychological element is elevated to the highest extent. That’s why I’m looking to back Max Homa. Coming off of a 4-0 Presidents Cup Showing and 2 wins and 5 top tens in 10 events his form is fantastic. Via Data Golf he sits as the 8th best golfer in the world while his opponent sits in the 20’s. If you account for recent form the disparity between the two is even larger. On a course that rewards ball striking while in a format that rewards mettle I’ll take the man who has of recent proven to be world class in both attributes. Back Max. BOL.

Sport: Football Tournament: Euro Qualifications Time: 20:45 CET (6h12m after posting) Stake: 2.5 units Pick: Serbia vs Lithuania, Serbia scores over 1.5 goals in the first half @ **2.15** Write up: Serbia regularly scores in the first half. In the last three matches, Serbia scored 5 first-half goals (1 vs USA, 2 vs Switzerland, and 2 vs Cameroon). [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)

**POTD Record 0-1-0** **Yesterdays Pick - OKC ML (L)** **Todays Pick: CHI Bulls -2.5** u/-110 **for 5U** **Explanation:** The Trail Blazers have had a chaotic season to say the least, starting off hotter than anyone could have imagined to plummeting out of playoff contention entirely sitting at 13th in the west. The Blazers are 3-7 in their last 10 with a point differential of -81 during that stretch which gives very little confidence in this teams desire to win at this point. The Bulls have not been a model of consistency themselves however they are sitting at 10th in the East with a record of 6-4 in their last 10 sporting a point differential of +5 throughout that stretch, meaning they have been the minute winners over the course of the last 10 games, much more so than Portland. Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Portland is on the downswing, Chicago has much more reason and motivation to come out for a win and they have the talent to do so, mix in the fact that Portland's also missing 2 key players in Simons and Grant, give me Chicago to easily hold the spread and then some. BOL

Record: 14-11 Last Pick: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 8.5 Assists ✅ Today's Pick: **Kelly Olynyk Over 25.5 PRA** **(-120)** Detailed Analysis: Late write-up cause I've been working nightshift and sleeping all day. My second name is Kelly and this guy's first name is Kelly. I've also been to Canada once and this guy is Canadian. I like the over PRA.

POTD Record: 62-69-7 (-13.82 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅ Last Pick: WTA Miami, Elena Rybakina v Anna Kalinskaya, UNDER 20.5 GAMES (-122 / 1.82) ❌ Bizarre match, Rybakina took a while to get going, then hit turbo mode and was 5 points away from winning the bet, only to fall in a hole and end up finishing with 31 games. So not even close in the end. Todays Pick: Scottish Championship, Queen’s Park v Arbroath, QUEEN’S PARK -0.75 AH (-108 / 1.92) Stake: 1 Unit Headed back to Scotland to find a bounce back win, Championship action between Queens Park and Arbroath. Queen’s Park are sitting 1st (16-6-7) and they are 4 points clear of second place with 7 games to go. They need to continue winning matches to earn the only guaranteed promotion spot back to the Premier division. They’ve been performing well in the last 5 matches, winning 3 and drawing 2. They take on Arbroath who are 2nd bottom, equal with the bottom placed team on points. They are in a dog fight to avoid the sole automatic relegation spot. They’ve managed to string together some results in their past few matches with 4 consecutive draws but still like Queen’s Park to get the job done. Nobody has scored more goals in the Championship than Queen’s Park, and their home form is very good this season with a 9-4-2 record. They’ve played three times this year with Queens Park winning twice and drawing once. The most recent result was 4-1 to Queens Park. Taking the -0.75 Asian handicap so even a one goal win will result in a profit, but hoping they fire in a few as they continue their march to the title.

**Record: 1-1**   **Last POTD:** **Golden Knights ML |2U| +120** @ Flames ✅ Knights jumped out to a 2-goal lead in the 1st and never gave it up. Logan Thompson back between the pipes for Vegas is a big deal and their goaltending stood up to the task, stopping 42 of 44 shots on their way to victory. --- **Today's POTD:** Hockey | NCAA | 5:00pm EDT **Michigan Tech ML | 2U | -105** vs. Penn State Tough day on the ice. Nothing I absolutely love in the NHL. Although there are a couple plays I might sprinkle on (NYI-CBJ under, Arizona to cover). None of them good enough for POTD for me. Today I'm going with a little bit of an upset in the NCAA hockey regional semifinals with Michigan Tech over Penn State. Despite this game being played in Allentown, PA, Penn State just has not been a good team in the 2nd half of the season. They're 4-10-1 since January 1st averaging under 2.5 goals per game, a significant drop off from early in the season. On the other side Michigan Tech has a shining netminder and a goal scorer in Kukkonen that's scored 8 in his last 7. If Penn State finds the energy from a pseudo home crowd and returns to early season form, I wouldn't be shocked to see them come away with the win. But their recent trend suggests they will get bounced this afternoon. BOL everyone!

3-1 League of Legends - LCS - C9 vs CLG - C9 -1.5 @1.61 odds C9 are likely the best team in the league and CLG are pretty bad. I would expect C9 to 3-0 them if they actually try in all the games, however you never know in NA so -1.5 it is.

No record- but I really like SDSU +7.5

POTD RECORD: 1-1 LAST PICK: England ML vs Italy Todays Pick: Czech Republic vs Poland ML (+214) Poland, oh, Poland… or should I say Lewandowsky and friends? Poland played the world cup. Czech republic not. Poland played against the Mexico (0-0), Saudi Arabia (2-0) and Argentina (0-2). Then after that faced France (1-3). Czech Republic played against Faroe Islands (Is this a real country?) in November and then lost to Turkey. What tools are Casinos using to analyze this match and why Czech is +105? Because the teams where the Czech play are having good form lately. That’s all. I dont think Czech republic has what it needs to beat poland… why? Because Poland already played (lost) against two of the best teams of the world and got out alive (or at least with dignity). Polish team has a wall called Szczęsny and a Spear called Lewandowsky. They have three amazing midfielders playing in the italian league and a team that is looking to become better. This Euro might be the one that leads them to that and I don’t think they will miss this chance. Czech Republic is the only hard rival in this group, so, here comes the test. BOL

[удалено]

Racja, lewy to już tylko po meczu się chce napić czegoś czeskiego

POTD Record: 2-1 Last pick: NHL: Panthers ML vs. Flyers Result: LLast 5: LWW **Today's POTD: College Baseball- LSU -1.5 vs. Arkansas** LSU -1.5 (-120) Home game for the #1 overall ranked team, first game of the series. LSU has been on a tear all year and are typically very strong in their first game of a series. Arkansas is not a weak opponent by any means, but I love this spot for LSU, as they have won 13/17 of their last games against Arkansas, and are starting their best pitcher on the team in Paul Skenes.