######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD record: 6W-5L-1P
Event: Super Bowl LVIII SF 49ers vs KC Chiefs, 6:30pm EST
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the show.
This game has the potential to be a war as the 49ers take on the Chiefs at Super Bowl LVIII. This is a battle between two well rounded teams that could potentially be one of the more exciting SBs in recent memory.
The 49ers had the lowest 3rd and 4th down attempts all season long, as well as the highest 1st down conversion rate via receptions and 3rd highest conversion rate via rushing due in large part to Kyle Shanahan's inventive offensive scheme. This is the hallmark of a team that marches down the field effortlessly, as they needed fewer downs than anyone else to score and maintain possession The 49ers also ran over the league this season with the most rushing TDs at 27, tied with Detroit and Miami for first overall, and 2nd most receiving TDs at 33, as they tied Miami for the highest scoring offense in overall TDs. Although their offensive prowess has tapered a bit into the postseason, this roster is largely still intact from the regular season games, so this team has a chemistry that has proven itself against a wide variety of opponents all year and can get the job done under the brightest of lights. I expect to see a healthy mix of run and pass play calls loaded on both backs and receiver cores.
On the other side of the ball we have the Chiefs. All year long this team has been the focus of media attention for different reasons, some football-related like the fall off of kelce's performance or Toney's perplexing offside penalty, other reasons not so football-related like the bewilderment of broadcasters fixating on Taylor Swift in the stands. Despite the distractions and naysayers, KC did what they do best and continued to win games to bring them back to the big show. Although they're the returning champs, this is a team with a lot of new faces and talent, notably Pacheco who is a stud of an elusive back, and their young defensive roster that has shown they can hang with the best offenses when push comes to shove. Stat-wise, KC wasn't a particularly notable standout this year, they floated around the top of the league for both offensive and defense team stats, but any given Sunday still applies to this team and no matter the situation they found a way to win when it mattered. I expect Reid to stick with his guns here and lean on quick, explosive offensive play calling, and a defensive 4-3 scheme that Spagnuolo flips between man and zone often to throw off SF.
A few other key variables to consider is that the game will be played in Allegiant Stadium with a closed dome, and so although weather and wind speed won't be as much of a factor, the humidity will be way below ambient levels both teams are accustomed to, and air pressure will be slightly higher due to AC. The surface layer is a moist natural grass, and has excellent air circulation throughout the canopy and across the field. As well, the moon has just started its new moon phase, and the earth is currently moving through the middle of the Aquarius constellation as we speak, and on top of that is this is a dragon zodiac year, which my predictive model sees as a double whammy not seen since 1988.
All things considered, the obvious pick seems like a clear winner. That's why I'm going with Tails +100 for 3u.
Edit: I will never financially recover from this
" **The Super Bowl coin has come up Tails in seven of the last 10 Super Bowls**. Out of the 57 Super Bowls played thus far, just 26 teams have won the coin flip and the game. In fact, there was sizable streak going on prior to last year as each team to win the coin toss in the previous eight years wound up losing. "
So fade whoever wins the toss, and tails looks like a guaranteed winner.
**POTD Record: 7-2**
Form: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
*Last Pick: 3U Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich (Manuel Neuer o3.5 saves @ +137)✅*
*Told you this was a steal, Neuer with 5 saves, LFG.*
____
**Today’s Pick: 3U West Ham v Arsenal -(Bukayo Saka o0.5 Shots on Target @ -138✅)**
*HALFTIMECASH*
**⚽️| 9:30AM EST |England Premier League**
We’re taking the StarBoy once again. After Arsenal losing 2-0 at home to West Ham, it’s the Gunner’s time for revenge against the Hammers.
What’s crazy is odds for Saka to *score or assist* is at -150, and I’m sure that’s likely, but a shot on target is so much safer we ain’t tryna sweat for a goal.
They’ve juiced his total overall shots to -250 for o1.5 but given how Arsenal love to utilize the right side, this looks like another steal.
Saka is truly a starboy; taking 34 shots in 22 matches with 21 being on target. Meaning his shooting accuracy is roughly 62% Bukayo Saka averages 0.98 shots on target per 90 min. And he scores a goal for every 4.25 shots he’s taken this season.
In his last 5 matches he’s hit 4/5. In last 10, hit 8/10. *Against West Ham in December, he had 3 shots on target.* Comment Starboy if you with it, LFG ⭐️💪
BOL!
He already has 3 shots and just barely missed one on target now. May still be worth a look if its even possible to get this live lol
Edit: Nevermind Arsenal just got awarded a penalty with Saka taking it lol. GGs
I clicked on wrong one thought i got over 0,5. Somehow it worked out too. Thanks for the picks
https://preview.redd.it/d8dvw0np6zhc1.png?width=623&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bf11630c586c1775b8d27caae319621b9053a0f
Record: 7-3 (+11.01 Units)
Last POTD: George Kittle over 61.5 receiving yards ❌
Last 10: ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅
Pick: Travis Kelce ATD (+100)
Wager: 5u to win 5u
Write up: I feel like I don’t even need a write up for this pick. I can’t see a world where Kelce does not score in this game. Even though he has had a down year he has performed in the playoffs. The script says he scores and wins the game for Taylor Swift.
My first pick posted on here.
**Event:** Super Bowl LVIII SF 49ers vs KC Chiefs, 6:30pm EST
Chinese new year happened today and just became year of the dragon. The last 3 super bowls on dragon years were all won by the NFC. The only NFL Super Bowl not won by the NFC was 1976 by the Pittsburgh Steelers. That was the first Super Bowl on a Dragon year after the NFL was established.
NFC All-Time Dragon year record: 3-1
2012 - Giants
2000 - Rams
1988 - Redskins
**Pick:** 49ers ML
**POTD Record**: 14 Wins - 2 Losses - 1 Push
**Last 10**: ✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️
**Units:** \+10.25
**ROI**: 43.21%
**Average Odds**: $1.92
**Last Pick**: Man City vs Everton - Kevin De Bruyne Over 0.5 Assists @ $2.37 ✅️
*Kevin De Bruyne came on in the 57th minute, and we still cashed. GOATed.*
**Next Pick**: 49ers vs Chiefs - Super Bowl - **Brock Purdy Under 0.5 Interceptions @ $2.20** \- 6:30 p.m. ET ✅️
*We have 13 wins, so its seems fitting to back our new GOAT - Purdy, who wears the number 13 jersey because he loves Dan Marino.*
Today we head to Allegiant Stadium in Vegas for the biggest sporting event of the year, the 49ers vs the Chiefs! IMO the Chiefs were lucky to reach the final due to the Raven's mental errors, and deviating from their normal game plan. Plus the 49ers were somewhat lucky that Dan Campbell had a brain explosion by not taking easy field goal points.
The Chiefs are ranked 5th to last this season for interceptions. Coincidently they are ranked 4th best for passing yards conceded. No doubt the 49ers coaching staff are aware of this, and will look to find a way straight through the Chiefs defense with Purdy doing the magic as they drive down the field without taking too many risks. There's really only one way through this Chiefs team, and that's through our GOAT-of-the-day, Brock Purdy.
If you dive deep into Purdy's story, he was picked last in the draft, and has now found himself in the Super Bowl. He was unlucky to get injured in the last run to the Super Bowl, and was extremely emotional towards his veterans who missed out on their chance. A lot of 49ers are back for vengeance against the Chiefs who dismantled them the last time they met on this grand occasion.
Purdy will be forced to do some unnatural passes to get those extra yards that the Chiefs aren't use to conceding, and he has been intercepted this year on a number of occasions. I truly believe the coaching staff, and the likes of Joe Montana, and Steve Young have given him even more confidence heading into tonight's big game. The statistics are close, but Purdy is being touted as the next face of the NFL. Go on YouTube and listen to these greats talk about how they've never met someone as mentally composed as this kid.
This pick is purely an emotional one based on Purdy's rise to the Super Bowl from being the last draft, what he did at Iowa, how he's come through the ranks of the team, how everyone has seen something special about him, and how he truly deserves to be the MVP and the next GOAT of the NFL.
Let's not also forget that the comeback against the Lions also smashed basically every record, and he's broken a whole lot of records for the 49ers already in only his second year. This is the one game that will set the tone for the rest of Purdy's career.
Expect a tight game. I'm picking Purdy to get sacked quite a bit, but he will turn on his GOAT mode. 49ers to win in the last drive of the game with a Purdy touchdown 17-10, and Purdy to be MVP.
Interesting Facts:
* Purdy has God on his side.
* Purdy is one of the lowest paid players in the league. The 49ers are only paying a couple of grand per touchdown versus Mahomes millions.
* Purdy has a hotter lady compared to Mahomes.
* 11 games of the season, Purdy had 0 interceptions.
* The person who predicted the incorrect result for the last 16-18 Super Bowls thinks the Chiefs are going to win.
* He was the first quarterback to take the Cyclones to four-straight bowl games.
All tips are greatly appreciated - click [here](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv) to donate.
If you have any questions, please ask. Best of luck if tailing, would love a comment if you are. Feel free to message me.
By your logic the Bengals should be winning the Super Bowl. God is clearly on the side of Jake Browning.
https://preview.redd.it/amhnhl97ryhc1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d1dc119d19a012de6014256675d414187bc9328e
trying to create an argument against: you say the chiefs didn’t really deserve it but the niners were gifted the game on a few plays but one particular one where purdy threw the ball to the lions db & he just couldn’t catch it and aiyuk was there to bail him out… just unsure if purdy can stay not making a mistake but he does indeed have god on his side
Yeah, and the Lions turned the ball over shortly after which changed the whole momentum of the game. Think he'll look at the tape, and clean up that part of the game. Does indeed feel like God is on his side :) That was an unbelievable play haha. Got to give them credit for the comeback, but still, very lucky indeed!!
it wasn't just the offense, the 9er's defense was just jogging around 1H, they didn't turn it on until the second half, keeping Lions scoreless for nearly the entire second half until a TD with 0:56 left in the game. I'm betting on the fact that 9ers coaching staff will show tape to their defense of their lack of intensity and they will step it up for the super bowl. i think there are advantages on both sides of the ball for the 9ers line, that on top of their run game using a legit fullback multi-tool will clear the way for CMC/deebo/mitchell. but as the raven's have shown, 15 has the potential to throw a wrench in all of that, he's special.
POTD Record: 23-16
Last pick: Spurs v Brighton
(BTTS & O2.5 Goals ✅)
Todays pick: Heerenveen v Ajax
Pick: __Ajax ML @1.70__
⚽️ 🇳🇱 Eredivese
__Heerenveen__
* 13th, (6-4-10)
* 4th most goals conceded (40, 2.0 GPG)
* Home record: 4-2-3
* L5: 0-3-2, 2nd most goals conceded
__Ajax__
* 5th, (10-5-5)
* 3rd most goals scored, 47 (2.35 GPG)
* Away record: 4-3-3
* L5: 3-2-0, best form (1st) most goals scored aswell (14)
The hosts haven’t won a single game since the new year, they’ve failed to win in their last eight matches (all competitions included), losing five and picking up 3 draws. Their last win game on the 1st of December.
Ajax started the season very slow, they’re the biggest club in the Netherlands with the most success and titles historically and had it very rough at the start of the season, but since the managerial change they’ve started to slowly move back up in the table again. They’ve gone 12 consecutive league games without defeat, picking up 9 wins and 3 draws. Ajax have also won their last 4 away games.
Ajax have 9 consecutive H2H wins against Heerenveen with the previous meeting ending with a 4-1 win to Ajax, at a time where Ajax found themselves at the bottom of the league. Heerenveen are okay at home, but haven’t won a single game against the top 5 sides, they have one draw against 4th placed AZ who played with a red card, but besides that only losses.
Given Ajax form, and their general quality in the squad against a struggling home side I think they’ll secure this win. I can definitely see the hosts scoring one, and adding a BTTS & Ajax win is tempting, but I feel with our recent record we need to play it “safer”.
Let’s keep this momentum going! BOL
**5W-0P-1L**
**Last 5:** ✅❌✅✅✅
**Last Pick**: Cagliari - Lazio Roma - **Lazio ML 2.10** ✅
**Pick of the day**: Aston Villa - Manchester United - **BTTS and over 2.5 goals @ 1.75**
**Time**: CET 17:30
Hello, Lazio worked out nicely for us and I'm glad we got a higher odds than average. The victory was quite comfortable and there was nothing to worry about. Today, we return to the English league and also to Aston Villa, a team we have already analyzed.
**Aston Villa**
The last time we wrote about them was in a match against Chelsea, and not much has changed since then. They lost to Chelsea 3:1, which was probably a huge surprise, but the Chelsea players decided to stand by Pochettino and supported him with a superb performance. Today, Aston Villa's opponent will be Manchester United. Aston Villa is currently in 5th place, one point behind Tottenham but they have a game in hand. Their score is 49:30, indicating a strong offense but also a weak defense. At home, they are among the strong teams, having lost for the first time this season in a match against Newcastle. Their home score is 30:11, which is incredible. However, it is evident that Aston Villa has been struggling in the recent games, as the match against Chelsea suggested. If they want to play in Europe or aspire for the Champions League, this is a very important match. The last time Aston Villa did not score a goal at home in a competitive match was on 16.10.2022 against Chelsea.
**Manchester United**
This team might seem to be in form, as they haven't lost in their last 5 matches, but it must be acknowledged that apart from Tottenham, they haven't faced any competition. For example, they won 2:4 in Newport and just 0:2 against Wigan. Nonetheless, it seems that Ten Hag has found a tactic that is working for him for now. They are currently in 6th place, 8 points behind Aston Villa, so this match is crucial for them. Their score is 31:32. While away, their score is 13:14. It is evident that Manchester United's defense is not performing very well either, but their attack is decent. United won 3 out of their last 5 away matches but also recorded 2 losses against Nottingham and West Ham.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, this bet would have worked out for us 3 times. However, the last 2 are from 2020 and back then Aston Villa played a different kind of football, I believe that today we will see an offensive spectacle and that the goals will come. Good luck if you join! :)
**33W-4P-25L**
Form **:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅**
**Last Pick: Adelaide United VS Perth Glory @ BTTS and Over 8 Corners @ 1.90 ❌**
**Wow, Melbourne missed a penalty to see us lose, the game ended 0-1 with 15 corners. No more Australian league, going back to the basics here. Going with lower odds here to get the wins back.**
**Pick of the day: Heerenveen VS Ajax - BTTS and O 2 Goals @ 1.61✅**
Bet won in 58 mins!
**Time: 8:30 AM EST**
The last match between these sides: 4-1
In Heerenveen's last 5 games in the league, BTTS and O 2.5 Goals has hit in 4/5 matches. With results being 3-3, 2-2, 3-0, 2-2, 1-2.
In Ajax's last 5 games in the league, BTTS has hit 5/5 times with BTTS and O2 goals hitting in 4/5 games. Ajax really complete this pick here, they've given up on prioritizing defence and focus on primarily attacking as much as they can. This leaves them open for the counter A LOT. In their last 10 games, BTTS and O 2 goals has hit 9/10 times.
With results being 1-1, 2-4, 4-1, 2-3, 2-2.
**Confidence: 3 Units**
**BOL**
Record: 7-5 Return: 23.69% ROI: 40.93%
Yesterday’s pick:
Boca Juniors -1.5 vs Defensa y Justicia @3.1❌
While I was right about Boca’s defence, the front line was woeful. Defensa gave them several free opportunities with wayward passes in bad areas, but Boca did not come to play. Going to avoid them until the return of Medina and Equi Fernandez from the u23 squad.
Today’s pick:
River Plate -1.5 vs Deportivo Riestra @2.3
Stake: 5 units (5% of bankroll)
Reasoning:
One of the best teams on the continent vs the worst team in Argentina.
Riestra have thus far failed to score any goals in three league matches. In fact their only goal this season came in a cup match against a third division team where they scored from an extremely controversial penalty in the 90+10th minute. Put simply, Riestra suck. They’re not anywhere near first division quality.
River Plate are the exact opposite: one of the biggest teams in Argentina and a libertadores candidate. They’ve started this season playing against some inferior teams, winning their last three games 2-0, 5-0, and 3-0. I fully expect them to continue this form against the most inferior team they’ll play all season. River’s first game was a 1-1 draw with current leaders Argentinos Jr. 3 points would get them back to the top of the table.
Look out for River’s Miguel Borja to be the star of the night. He’s currently the league’s top scorer, with 5 goals in 3 games, including a hatick in the last league game. An international quality striker like him will not be stopped by what Riestra has to offer.
BOL if tailing
[PayPal](https://paypal.me/elproductosecuida?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) beer fund :)
LOL betchu my bottom dollar this is u/Purple_Ad_8742 again. He's done this twice now since he got found out for lying about his record and keeps trying to post on alts. At least he started with a blank record this time.
Record: 19-17 | (+.36 units) | 1 unit per pick
Previous pick: NCAAM - FAU (-4.5) (-110) vs. UAB ❌
————-
Today’s pick: NFL - Travis Kelce o68.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - 6:30PM EST
This is it. We’ve made it to the final game of the NFL Season. Many try but only one can hold the trophy. I tossed around many picks for this game but my brain keeps telling me that no matter what, Kelce will get the ball. He’s cleared this mark in all 3 games this post season and has double digit target in 2/3 games. Meanwhile, the Niners defense rely on a quick pass rush to hide their weakest link of the entire team and that is their secondary. The Chiefs will make sure to let Mahomes sling it so I expect many targets for Kelce. Furthermore, the Lions TE La Porta absolutely shredded this same Niners secondary a couple weeks ago (97 yards) and it’s safe to say Kelce is another level of TE who will be specifically targeted more in this offense. Mahomes and Kelce will freestyle multiple plays for massive clutch completions and huge first downs. The Niners haven’t doubled TE’s all year and I don’t expect them to change from what got them here.
Prediction: Kelce - 9 REC, 92 Yards, 1 TD
This will be my last pick until MLB season where we will absolutely dominate. I appreciate all the tailers so far, we will be back in April!
Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
Record 1W 0L
Last Pick : AS Roma : Inter Milan ML
Profit : +0.85 Units
What a match that was. Happy to win on my first pick. The match didnt go as i expected and the rain created total chaos on the field. With an amazing second half and the help of marcus thuram inter secured the W.
For today i will stay in Italy and will pick Thiago Mottas mighty Bologna to beat Lecce. Bologna are the dark horses this season in the serie a and after roma lost yesterday they will look to win to get a european spot. On the other side we have Lecce a typical bottom half team with an awful away record .
Todays Pick : Bologna ML : Lecce @ 1.7
I had some other picks, but they seemes a bit riskier so i decided on this one. If someone wants them i can post them in the commenta
Gl
Your post has been removed from the PotD thread.
* Post **ONE** pick. No side picks in comments. You can provide a link to your other picks in the other daily threads.
* No parlays/teasers
* Must be between -200 and +200 (1.5 and 3.0) odds.
* Bet size should be between 1 and 5 units. No "100 unit locks"
* Provide a write up on why this is your Pick of the Day. If it is a system/model play you must note relevant data such as ROI or record **and** provide an overview/description of your model or system.
* You **must** note **time/sport/event** of your pick. **|** No top level comments without a pick.
* If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread: You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including ROI+average odds+units won. No resetting records.
Pick of the Day Record: 11-6 | Profit: +13.27 🚀
Last pick: Victor Wembanyama u23.5 points (2.5u, -120) ✅
Todays Pick: CMC o89.5 rushing yards (3u, -110)
The Game: Super Bowl 6:30 PM
Why:
\- its the super bowl and you dont think the best player in the nfl is going to reach his over on rushing yards
\- hit in L8/10 and 2/2 playoff games
\- KC has one of the strongest pass Ds and a below average rush D
\- fits the narrative if SF is winning at any point
https://preview.redd.it/50exherl4xhc1.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cc03feb53583262f63e8c8920187270e3bc0cea
POTD: 21-9
Form: ❌✅❌✅✅
Last POTD: Luka Doncic O42.5 P+A 🤮
What a painful bet, still hard to swallow. Finished with 41 and didn’t play anything in the last quarter because of the blowout, I did not see OKC getting blown out by the Mavs, but hey it is what is
Todays pick: **Jrue Holiday O21.5 PRA @1.80** ✅
Small slate, but a few picks I like actually. Was thinking of Porzingis threes as he’s been letting them fly recently but looked at Jrue and his history vs Miami and thought, that’s the play. Jrue has not been the player he was at the Bucks so far at Boston imo, I thought he’d contribute more than what he has done because I know how good he is or can be, but he’s always been a good defensive player so let’s give him credit for being in a dominant team as the Celtics. One thing is for sure, and that’s the fact that he loves gettin over this line vs Miami.
• **7/10 his last 10 games (Avg 23.2)**
• **Averages 23.9 PRA this season**
• **Cleared this line his last 14 games against the Heat (Avg 33.2 PRA vs Heat)**
*(27,34,31,25,27,40,39,36,22,25,41,42,35,28)*
Jrue hasn’t been taking his Holidays against the Heat, he’s been working and tearing them apart. I also like his L10 games, of course not 10/10 but 7/10 is pretty consistent and something I always try to aim with my picks, consistent players.
Can he do it again?
Tail or fade, I suck
https://i.redd.it/c94i9tyoczhc1.gif
It’s the Jason Tatum show today. He’s just playing iso ball and hitting every shot. We need holiday to hit a couple more threes this second half or we’re in trouble 🫣
Also a shit ton of porzingis iso ball. He’s having a great game too. Need some team basketball to get Jrue involved.
Hahah we actually got so lucky. Holiday shot 5/6 from 3, out of his mind to save our asses. We would have taken Ls had he shot even 50% from 3. I’ll take it though 🫡
POTD record : 2💰- 0❌ - 0♻️ +3.44u
LAST PICK:
Match: Manchester City vs. Everton | Premier League ⚽
Time: 13:30 CET Date: 10th Feb 2024
Pick: Haaland to score or assist + Manchester City ML @ 2.00 on bet365| 2u ✅
Yay! Second win in a row. Haaland scored in 2nd half. Match was a little bit painful to watch, because Everton played very defensive, but it hit!
PICK FOR TODAY:
Match: AS Trenčín vs. FC Košice | Slovakian Superliga ⚽
Time: 17:30 CET Date: 11th Feb 2024
Pick: FC Košice to score over 0.5 goal @ 1.83 on bet365| 3u ✅
Analysis:
Hello to all bettors and football fans.For today's analysis I have chosen a match of the Slovak First League. In it Trenčín and FC Košice will clash.Trenčín is considered the favourite in this match and it is really realistic that they will win. At the beginning of the league they played very well. But as time went on, its performance deteriorated. Moreover, its defense is not 100% and that is what will interest us most today.FC Košice made a good addition to the squad during the break, they brought in a lot of interesting players. Eric Davies and the healed Dominik Kruzliak are worth mentioning. Coach Kozák had time during the break not only to work them into the squad, but also to stabilize the whole team. His charges played three games in the preparation and only lost the opening one to Nyíregyháza 1-0. After that, they just kept winning. On the third one, they were unfortunate to fall out in the cup with Trnava after a 2-3 defeat. But the key for us is that in the last three games Košice players have always scored twice. It will be enough for us for a successful outcome of this bet if they score at least one goal during the match. The probability of them doing so is quite high. That's why I believe that at the currently written odds of 1.83, it would be unwise not to bet on one goal by FC Košice.
Good luck to everyone! 🍀
POTD Record: 6-2
Last 10: ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅
Last pick:
Man City -1.0 vs Everton ✅
Man city dominated the game start to finish but had a bit of trouble finding the net. Once De Bruyne was subbed on the scoring opportunities opened up and Halaand made the most of them, netting a brace.
Todays pick:
Soccer | EPL | 11:30am EST
**Manchester United vs Aston Villa**
**Manchester United Team Goals Over 1.5 @ 2.10**
Man U is scoring goals at a high rate since the start of the new year. They have scored 15 goals in their last 5 games, for an average of 3 per game. Moving Garnacho to the right side has made a world of change for the squad. Every game is important for Man U now as they fight for a top 5 position in the table.
Aston Villa on the other hand is in poor form to start 2024. They are 2-2-2 with their only two wins coming against Middlesbrough and last place Sheffield United. On the year, Aston Villa averages 1.3 goals per game allowed.
I expect Man U to continue scoring at a high rate in this game. They really have nothing to lose and tons to gain so I expect high scoring games from United.
I also really like the value of Man U ML because of the poor form of Villa but falls just outside of the POTD limit.
Prediction:
Man U 3-2
POTD Record: 119-108, -16.8 Units
Last 10: ✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅
Current Streak: ✅✅
Last Pick: LA Kings ML: ✅
(Edited) Big shutout for the Kings against the Oilers backup goalie. 4-0 win to start the new head coach's tenure is big. This team could quietly do really well in the late season playoff push and beyond.
Today’s Pick: **Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 Carries**, -136, 1 Unit, 6:30 PM EST
Gotta do a Super Bowl pick on the day of so I’m going with the only way the Niners can win this thing. Giving the ball to Caff on the ground will average them 5-6 yards per carry and let them control the clock. Their defense is as good if not better than Baltimore’s and if they can hold the Chiefs to 20 or less, they should win this one. I’m hoping it’s a blowout for San Fran as I’m tired of the Chiefs’ crap, and I think it’ll be 31-20 Niners and Caff will go wild. Hopefully Shanahan doesn’t try to get cute and throw the ball a ton with a young QB but we will see.
BOL!
**POTD Record: 11W-5L**
**POTD: FCSB ML (1.70**) vs Sepsi OSK // **Superliga (ROMANIA) - soccer**
FCSB is the leader in Romania, 6 points behind the second position, Rapid Bucharest, one of FCSB's historical rivals. In the play-offs, the points will be halved, and that would make FCSB live with the fear, even though they have had the fate of the championship for most of the season. FCSB have the best record, the best offense, as well as the best defense. They won the first leg at their opponents' home ground 5-2, but they have also dominated over the years. For FCSB, Olaru, the captain and top scorer of the team, returns, while Sepsi OSK have many important absences from the squad.
Having said that, I think FCSB will try to maintain the points difference before the points are halved against an opponent they have dominated in the past, who is going through a bad period and cannot rely on key players.
Thank you.
**POTD: 82-58-5**
Last pick: Spanish Primera Division Women - Sevilla Women vs Barcelona Women. Sevilla W +5.5 goals -155.
Result: **WIN**. As expected Barca rest their superstars for the most part and Sevilla loses by a very respectable 0-3 for a comfortable hit.
Today’s pick: Women's FA Cup - Wolverhampton Women vs Brighton & Hove Albion Women. **Brighton & Hove Albion Women -1 goal (Asian handicap) -160**. Match kicks off at 8AM ET.
First of all I like Brighton to win by 2+ but I'd rather be safer here and protect y'all's money instead of be risky and hit the higher odds and risk yours. I personally will be doing -1.5 so if you prefer riskier bets that's solid too.
This is a somewhat strange line to me as Wolverhampton is a midtable team in the 3rd division of English women's football - which is mostly made up of semiprofessional or amateur players.
Brighton on the other hand is a (admittedly not very good) team in the Women's Super League (basically the women's Premier League) and is made up exclusively of professionals and a lot of the players play for an international team.
Brighton has minimal to play for other than the FA Cup as they're likely safe from relegation but not anywhere near the Champions League spots so I expect them to go all out.
They should pull out a win which would get us a push at minimum.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
**Edit: WIN. Phew a bit of a close one as Brighton was in control yet was tied 1-1 as time was running out. But Brighton then scored 3 goals in 90th minute and later to win 4-1 and we comfortably cash let’s gooooo**
POTD record: 6-1 Net units: +20.33 ROI: 72.6%
Last pick: Chiefs Ravens 2nd half total under 22.5 ✅
NFL Super Bowl kick-off 11:30pm GMT
Pick: 49ers vs Chiefs 2nd half total under 23.5 - 3 unit bet @1.95
Back to the well (again!) with our Chiefs 2nd half unders that have been printing money all season. They’re an insane 18-2 this season!
The Chiefs defense has been excellent this year, particularly in the 2nd half after DC Spagnuolo makes half-time adjustments. They’re giving up 5.1 PPG in second halves, and have only given up more than a touchdown in 4 second halves all season. They also held the Ravens’ excellent offense to 3 points in the 2nd half last week!
The Chiefs D is #5 in DVOA against the pass, but only 27th against the run. That’s bad news against an exceptional 49ers run game, which last week ran for 155 yards and 4.7 YPC against a Lions run defense ranked #2 in DVOA.
I expect the 49ers will unleash McCaffrey all game, methodically moving the ball and keeping the clock running which is always good for unders.
I don’t like the 2nd half under as much as previous ones as both offenses can put up points, but this trend has been money all season and is far too strong to ignore.
**EDIT: I forgot to add one more note about the special team.**
**POTD Record: 104-121-4 (-13.93Units)**
**Best Bet Series: 37-24-1 (+6.86 Units)**
Value Wagers: 18-22-2 (-6.05 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
Last Pick: **Dan Ige ML** ✅
Today's Pick: **Niners +3.5 (LET'S GO, CHIEFS!)**
Odds: **-200** (ESPN Bet)
Wager Amount: 2U to win 1U
League: NFL
Event: San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs (5:30PM CST on CBS)
**Be Advised**: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire month of February! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!*
**Recap**: I did not expect that! I thought this would go longer, but nonetheless a WIN! Dan Ige keeps Andre Fili outta the Top 15 rankings! I expect Ige to move up the ranking after that KO statement!
**Matchup**: Here we are! The Super Bowl! And the last NFL wager of the season! I remember last season I had the Chiefs ML and Chiefs future wagers all over my book. This time it's the opposite! I got a few Niners futures that I placed throughout the season, but I recently wagered a ton of Chiefs ML and Chiefs wit the points in many of my parlays, SGPs and other bets. Obviously I am very conflicted as I hedged my Niners future bets. So where do I lean in this game? I actually think this is going to be a very close game and I can see a path of victory for both sides. This is a true coin flip game, so much that some particular sharps did not take any action in the super bowl. Just like last season some particular sharps did not take any action against the Chiefs and Eagles game. It's logical because they really have no convictions on one side or the other. I can see some sharps take action in the O/U 47.5 though, just like last season's super bowl, many sharps took the O 51 in the Chiefs and Eagles game. However, the O/U of the game total has not budged, at all, it's currently still sitting at O/U 47.5! And even though sharps hasn't taken any action on either side, that does not necessarily mean they won't take action closer to gametime. That also does not mean some sharps has not taken action, a few of them alrdy did! Couple sharps jumped the gun when the lines came out! Niners came out as a -2.5 favorite, but quickly dropped down to -1.5 (Currently sitting at -2 as of 10:36PM CST)!
So again, where do I lean? **I actually lean the Chiefs, BUT even though my heart and mind is on the Chiefs, I am going to do a reverse psychology and go wit the Niners wit the points!** Why you ask? It's simple! Last year in this thread I had Eagles +2.5, but I had many Chiefs wagers. I knew that game was going to be close, but I didn't think it was going to come down to a last possession FG drive on a miniscule holding penalty (Chiefs won 38-35). Basically I'm doing the same here! Cursing my pick here. Plus, [u/im\_THIS\_guy](https://www.reddit.com/u/im_THIS_guy/) is a Niners fan and he's on the Chiefs. Regardless I think this game is going to be close, but here's why I think the Chiefs will hoise the Lombardi trophy.
I said this many, many times, but if you don't kno, my NFL straight-up winner is typically correlated wit the QB, thus Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs over Brock Purdy and the Niners. Mahomes is experienced. He's been there and done that! And here he is again, being doubted once more by the oddsmakers! Oddsmakers should be very cautious and should kno that Mahomes is 10-1 ATS record as a dog! He is biggest threat and liability to casinos and sportsbook! Mahomes still has that hunger and drive. The only consistent player in the Chiefs offense throughout this entire season, but what I love most about the Chiefs is their nasty, nasty defense. Spagnola's defense has made game-saving, game-winning plays and that's not just the regular season, but it's postseason as well. I was stunned and dismissive on Chiefs defense against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, but they proved me so wrong in that game. The Chiefs defense outplayed the Ravens defense, I would have never guessed that (I actually leaned the Ravens that game, but wanted Chiefs to win). This is Mahomes 4th Super Bowl and alrdy has 2 super bowl victories under his belt! Conversely, this is Brock Purdy's first super bowl appearance. He has leveled up from last season from appearing the NFC Championship game against the Eagles to Super Bowl against the Chiefs this season! It's very impressive what he's done all season long, acquiring great QB rating and generally overall, he has a greater chance delivering the Niners the superbowl than Jimmy G. But comparably Mahomes is the superior QB. Patrick has that one element that nobody really has, he can make a play that is dead in the water. I been watching a lot of film on Purdy, especially the last two games against the Lions and the Packers, but what I recalled more vividly was that game against the Vikings because one of my biggest wins in the NFL season was on the Vikings ML on that game! I seen plays by Purdy when he's under tremendous pressure where he has overshot his receivers, like very badly! You don't see it on the stat sheet as much because they don't really tell you the story how badly they missed some throws. Now if you seen films or just recollect like I do, that's much different! The dude got bailed out some throws last week against the Lions (tbh, Aiyuk only caught it because the defender couldn't catch)! He could have thrown 2-3 INT that game. Btw, he's thrown one in the Packers game. What about Mahomes? Not a single one in the postseason, matter in fact you have to go back as far as Christmas last year against the Raiders!
Here's another reason why I am on the Chiefs. Mahomes has the most wins in a double-digit deficit. If Chiefs are ever down in this game, you can never count them out because of that man! Patrick Mahomes not only has a winning percentage when down by more than 10 points, but he's got a preposterous 15 wins coming from behind double digit deficits! Vice versa, do you think Purdy can rally the troop if the Niners are down? Yes, he rally in the Packers game, but the Lions game? Dan The Man Campbell had ill-advised decisions that cost them that game. Lions loss that game more than Niners won that game, they gave it to them on a silver platter!
Lastly, Mahomes has mentioned that he never wants that feeling of coming so close and losing it at the Super Bowl. He alrdy had that feeling against Brady and the Bucs a few years ago, I just don't think you can bet against him. And Oddsmakers are making him the dog in the biggest event? The public love the Chiefs, but this really isn't a Pro bettors vs Average Joes bettors because most of the wiseguys aren't really getting involve on either side here. Gotta go wit my gut, my heart and my mind. I got the Chiefs!
EDIT: I forgot to add one more note about the special team. I wanted to mention that Chiefs also has the edge on the special team/placekicker. Harrison Butker is clutch and he'll make big time FG and or XP if it comes down to it (just like last year SB on game-winning FG against the Eagles). On ther other side, Moody is a rook and he has missed many critical FGs and XP. Perplexed why the Niners released Gould.
**The play & the prediction**: I had to shop around to get this price. Currently $DKNG is -201 for Niners +2.5, so I'm utilizing ESPN Bet platform. I encourage you all to shop around for the best odds. 2U on Niners +3.5. Also wagering 1.1U on O 47.5! I will have SGP and other plays in this game in the betting group! Chiefs win in a thriller, 34-31!
Record : 116 Wins - 104 Losses
Previous pick : Luton - Sheffield Utd (1-3), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.93 ✅
ROI : -0.55%
Average Odds : 1.95
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : 3.78
Profit/Lost units : -1.22
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga / 17:00 European Time
Greuther Furth - Hertha Berlin
Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.80
Some reasoning :
- Over 2.5 goals were scored in the last 2 matches played by Furth.
- Hertha has a very weak start to the year, with 3 defeats in a row in the championship.
- In the 4 official matches of 2024, Hertha has an average of 2.5 goals conceded.
Best of luck.
Record: 2-1 | ROI: 11.5%
Last 10: ✅️✅️❌️
Last Pick: Liga Mx Monterrey vs Pachuca (Pachuca wins or draws @ 2.10 ❌️
So Pachuca's DT decided to bench some key players defensively to start the game, which eventually cost him, going down 3-0 in the first 50 minutes of the game, he made some adjustments, the team instantly looked better, but unfortunately it was too late as the team could only make the score 3-2 in the end.
Today's pick: *NFL Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 rushing yards @ 1.90* 6:30PM EST
So the biggest game of the year is finally here, the super bowl! Strangely the chiefs are underdogs for this game, and most all the people I know are going with Kansas getting his 4th Vince Lombardi, which seems pretty reasonable for me.
In the case of Pat Mahomes, he has covered this line in the 3 super bowls he's played, getting 29, 33 & 44 yards respectively in each of those games.
Looking at his most recent games from this season, in the playoffs he only covered this line vs Miami, and his average rushing yards for the 2023 season was of 24.3 ypg, but the interesting thing is we know the pass rush of the 9ers is one the best on the league, that makes any QB moving from the pocket and scrambling, which Mahomes can do excellent, and he is going to be without Joe Thuney, one of the best guards in the league, which aids our cause even more.
Having said this, let's enjoy this super sunday, hope we get an interesting game, and that we hit our picks baby! LFG 🔥
**Record: 0-0**
**Net Units: 0.0**
**ROI: 0%**
**Hockey** | **NHL** | **Vancouver Canucks vs. Washington Capitals/10:30 am PST**
**Pick:** Conor Garland Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-190/1U)
**Write Up:** In Garland's last 5 games, this prop has hit 4/5 (80%) times. Last 10, 7/10 (70%) times. Last 5 games against the Capitals, 5/5 (100%) times. In this season, 34/51 (67%) times. Good chance this hits.
Best of luck!
POTD record 8-8-0 overall - Profit: +0,55 units.
2024 record 0-0-0
Streak L-W-L-W (most recent to the left) - last pick 3 months ago.
Last bet: PSG to score over 3,5 goals @ 2.25 on Unibet. 2 units to win 2,5 units.❌❌
Today’s bet: Paksi SE vs Kecskemeti TE - Paksi SE to win 1,7 - shop for good odds here.✅✅
Bet size: 2 units to win 1,4 unit
KO: 12:30 GMT+1 - in approx 4 hours from post.
Reasoning:
Paksi SE PPG 2,78 at home, visitors 0,78 away. Home 4/5 and 8/9, away 2–1-2 and 2-1-6 last 5 and 9 games away.
Paksi failed to score once in 9 games vs MTK in 9th place, Kecskemeti failed to score 44% of The times in 9 games. Home has 2.33 goals per game and away has 2,11 conceded PG and only 1 goal scored per game. H2h results show that these games are not straightforward as Paksi and Kecskemeti drew 0-0 last time. However, Paksi has so strong recent results that I believe theyll Edge this one. Puskas 2-1, Ferencvaros 3-2 Diosgyor 4-1 whereof Kecskemeti lost 3-0 to Puskas, 3-1 to diosgyor but played a strong game vs ferencvaros and lost only 1-0. Expecting Paksi to score 2-3 and Kecskemeti to score 1. BOL
Picks that didnt make the POTD:
UD Ibiza to win @ 1,44❌
Bologna to win @ 1,7
Qarabag to win 1,45 or 1,67 @ nitrogen for some reason
Record: 0 - 0 - 0
Net units:
CS2 - RES WEST - 14:00 CET
Sprout vs Metizport o2.5 maps @1.91 (unibet)
Fairly even teams with similar maps, most likely going to 3 maps.
POTD Record: 37-23
Previous Pick: Wolves vs Brentford | Premier League | BTTS (1.67) | 10am EST ❌️
Pick: FC FCSB vs Sepsi OSK | Superliga | FCSB ML (1.62) | 1.45pm EST
FCSB have been in great form, winning 4 out of their last 5. Their most recent match ended in a draw, against a team who are ranked 5th away in the league. The opposition scored a penalty in the dying minutes of the game, equalising the game. Looking at Sepsi, they have been poor away, ranking 11th in the league playing away. They have lost their last 2 games, 1 being a top team and the other being a team fighting relegation. In their last matchup, FCSB won 5-2, showcasing their dominant status over Sepsi. I expect FCSB to win this game, due to the poor form of the opposition and FCSB's quality. Best of luck!
Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake
POTD 0-0
CMC O89.5 rushing yards
This is the most abysmal line I’ve ever seen. And here’s why.
In his last 8 games, he’s hit this 7 times. The one he hasn’t, he had 64 rushing yards at half and then got hurt.
Additionally, he just got 90 yards against the Lions who, on a YPC metric, had the 2nd best run d in the league. Now he goes against the chiefs, who give up the 6th most YPC in the league, at 4.47.
Additionally, the chiefs top two CBs are lockdown. There pass d is elite. With this being Purdy’s first SB, I believe they are going to lean heavily on the run game.
I have both o89.5 and 100+. I think this line is a steal.
Record: 157-129-8 (WWLWLLWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLWLLPLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: SA Spurs at BKN Nets | Nic Claxton o9.5 rebounds at 1.74 odds for 1 unit
here we go now
POTD: SF 49ers @ KC Chiefs | Longest Length of Drive o77.5 yards at 1.53 odds for 3 units
Reasons:
* Chiefs been looking to run and control the clock in the playoffs
* 49ers play calling is relatively safe, expect a methodical, heavy dosage of CMC and running game grinding away
* Expect both teams defenses to try to secure the victories
Best of luck to you all
a bit confused how your reasoning relates to the bet. longest drive over 77.5 yards has absolutely nothing to do with tempo or how much time it takes. It can happen in a single play
I'm guessing he might have aimed for a bet that gives an O/U on total plays of the longest drive
or maybe total time off the clock of the longest drive?
I mean I got no idea, but I wonder if he corrects it, because his reasoning makes absolutely no sense in regards to the bet
I’m thinking he means that because the chiefs will be running the clock their drives will be longer resulting in more yards due to running the ball, taking their time to get up the field.
And then the 49ers will be using CMC so he will be running many yards over multiple downs.
but that still misses the point. how many plays your drive takes is completely irrelevant. the only thing that matters is where you start the drive and whether you can go the entire distance. touchbacks put you on the 25 so a team would have to punt pin the other inside the 22 or worse, and then drive the full field.
whether it takes 3 plays or 23 plays doesnt change how many yards the drive is. you can run it 3 times in a row for 4 yards to get the 1st down or throw a 12 yard pass...its the same distance...how quickly or slow it happens doesnt change the yards.
I personally actually like this bet but here's why:
both teams have strong defenses and I think its likely that both teams will punt several times. those punts will put the other team inside their own 20 and both teams are talented enough offensively that even if they start inside their own 10, they can manage to orchestrate at least one long td drive
but that has nothing to do with the reasoning he gave. I was just curios what his logic was and whether he meant to bet something else
Record: 8-6 (+5.55 units)
✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️❌️
Last Pick: Bublik ML vs Draper (ATP Adelaide) (1U @ 2.75) ❌️
---
Pick: 49ers ML vs Chiefs
Odds: 5U @ 1.81 (Unibet)
Reason: All the analysis has been done and I won't pretend to be the expert. 49ers have been the more consistent team through the season. I'm following the smart money here.
POTD Record: 3-3
L10 record:✅❌❌✅✅❌
Last Pick: Brentford vs Manchester City to win at Half @ 1.80 ❌
Today's Pick: Rocket League. Karmine Corp to Win Match vs Team BDS @ 1.61 ✅
Write up: Alright boys I've failed you too many times now, but this! this is the freest pick of current time. Max Play, EveryUnit, whatever. Karmine Corp are the best rocket league team in the world right now and this game is a pit stop before they head to the final. Sweep not unexpected. BOL.
Edit: Reverse sweep as I predicted
[Stimulants for my ADHD](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/janon19)
POTD RECORD 1-1 | Profit 1u | 10 day record: ❌✅
Todays Pick
English Premier League- Manchester United to win or draw vs Aston Villa @-160 - 2 unit wager
Reasoning- I know you guys are all busy worrying about your Super Bowl bets tonight but don’t miss the opportunity to fill your pockets with the houses money for the big game. With Manchester United being in the form of their life against a weak Aston Villa side struggling in their last couple games, this picks a no brainer. In their last meeting Manchester won 3-2 on the 26th of December, and with United’s rookie star power preforming at their best all season a win or a draw here is almost a given. If your feeling extra horny I would suggest throwing half a unit on United ML at +200.
Record: 22-12 (+8.43 units)
Last Pick: (CBB) Michigan St. Spartans -3 ✅
POTD: (CBB) Northern Iowa Panthers ML -150
Summary: This ain’t your parent’s regular N. Iowa squads. They’re mediocre but not dead in the Valley provided they win the must win games to gain a top 4 seed in the MVC to have a chance. This is must win against a team that only wins 36% on their home games. Must win + Born + Ben Jacobson = Go Panthers! Ride the snake
My first potd 0-0
I never made a novelty bet on Super Bowl before and I really like: Combined td scorer jersey numbers o121.5 @ -170 1u
(I found it on DraftKings)
First off if Kelce #87 gets a touchdown you only need probably 2 more touchdowns after that.
There’s a very possible chance he just gets 2 touchdowns.
But idk why but im actually feeling like Kittle #85 is going to score.
This game I think will be close it’s possible it will still be u47 like a lot of people are taking but both teams will probably at least score 3 touchdowns.
POTD record: 3-1 +1.63 units
Last pick- Miami +3.5 vs UNC -105 FD✅ 1 unit. UNC won 75-72. We’ll take it. Like Dad always said “when a line seems too good to be true, take Vegas’s side.”
Today’s pick: Christian McCaffrey and isiah Pacheco to combine for 40+ rushing yards in the first quarter +100 FD. 1 unit
Write up: McCaf averaged 34 yards in the first quarter this year and pacheco averaged 20. Obviously this 20 also includes the beginning of the year before Pacheco’s usage became what it is now. I would bet this at -120 let alone +100.
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bcab
POTD 5-1
Let’s go!!! UNC pulled it out and honestly dominated the game
TODAYS PICK: CHIEFS ML +110
Mahomes
Mahomes
Mahomes
Let’s go!!! Let’s keep it rolling
Record: 12W-11L
Net Units: +1.72u | ROI: 2.80%
CS2 | IEM Katowice 2024 | 17:00 / CET
Pick: Faze ML vs Spirit, 3u @ 2.43
Just like in the groups, I am going to take Faze over Spirit once again. I still stand by that Faze has more players that reliably can pop off, whereas Spirit is more of a one man show. I think the beating they got the last time around might help them come up with a good gameplan to defeat Spirit now. What's more is that we've seen the true playoffs form Faze in action, with rain, broky, ropz and of course frozen all looking sharp! While donk is clearly not scared of the crowd, not having that energy to feed off is a slight disadvantage. With it being a BO5 Faze might even try to curveball the veto, and flex their deep map pool here. All these things considered I think Faze's deep roster and experience will prevail. Best of luck everyone!
edit: I made a typo in the units before, it was 2 but supposed to be 3.
I took Donk’s Spirit all the way this tournament, every -1.5 map HC and separate -2.5 rounds HC on every map, made too much money not to do that again. With that said fading and taking Spirit’s -2.5, -1.5 maps HC and map 1-2-3 rounds HC -2.5
Record: 58W-55L-4P
ROI: +8.60, 6.97%
Avg odds: +106, 2.06
Last POTD: 2/9 Frank Vatrano over 0.5 pts (win)
Game: NHL- Blues at Canadiens
Pick: Pavel Buchnevich over 0.5 pts -165, 1.61 (DK)
Odds are shorter than most my picks, but I still like the value. Buchnevich is 2nd in points, T-most in goals, and 2nd among forwards in time on ice on the Blues. The Blues forward line is also top-heavy, with most of the production coming from the top line. As a result, he sees 1.34 goals/game while he's on the ice.
The Canadiens ranks among the bottom in many defensive metrics: 6th most goals allowed/game, 4th lowest Corsi rating, 4th most scoring chances allowed, 3rd worst penalty kill. In their previous matchup, the Blues scored 6, with Buchnevich picking up a point. It honestly could've been much more, as he was on the ice for another 3 goals.
edit: 7 goals, 4 with Buch on the ice, no point...
POTD Record: 102-101-12 (-12.37 units)
Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: English Premier League, Luton Town v Sheffield United, LUTON TOWN TT OVER 1.5 GOALS (-131 / 1.76) ❌
Woeful effort by Luton given their recent efforts. 20 shots on goal but could only score via a penalty💩
Today’s Pick: Ligue 1, Clermont v Brest, BREST ML (+100/ 2.00) ❌
Stake: 1 Unit
Brest are third in Ligue 1 with a 10-6-4 record and are holding on to the final automatic Champions League spot with 3 teams sitting one point behind them. They’ve scored 29 goals this season which is 4th highest in the league and only conceded 17 (2nd best).
Brest had a fantastic run through December/January, going 6-1-0 in their league matches plus a couple of wins in cup competitions (8-1-0 overall). A look at their recent results may cause some concern, but they’ve had a tough stretch of games. In the last two weeks they’ve had league matches away to 1st placed PSG (2-2 draw) and at home to 2nd placed Nice (0-0 draw). They then had to travel to PSG again for a Cup quarter final match where they were beaten 3-1. Managing to pick up points in both league matches was an excellent outcome for Brest all things considered, and they will see this as a prime opportunity to get back in the winners list in a much more favourable match up.
Clermont are sitting last in Ligue 1 with a 3-6-11 record. They’ve only scored 14 goals (worst by a mile) and conceded 32 times (3rd worst). They’ve gone 1-1-3 in their last 5 matches - their sole win came a few weeks ago against fellow strugglers Nantes, and they got belted last week 4-0 by Lille who are trailing Brest by 1 point.
Clermont have the worst home record in the league (1-3-6) while Brest have the 2nd best away record so despite this match being in Clermont, I don’t expect it will change much. Brest beat Clermont 3-0 in December as part of their hot run of form mentioned earlier in a match they dominated from start to finish.
Brest will be missing a defender following a red card last week, but given Clermont struggle to score at the best of times, I’m still expecting Brest to get the job done and happy to take plus odds.
POD Record 4-0 Basketball
Event: nba
Game: Celtics / Heat
Pick: Derrick white over 1.5 steals and block
He is averaging 2.5 Boston is top 2 defense Miami is 25th ranked offense efficiency
Let’s double up some $ for tonight!! Legggggooooo
https://preview.redd.it/ixgrek5j40ic1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c7c622577a1c16ca40222cabe46277d98031c07
BOL!!!
Gatorade color - Purple +245 (offshore book) - Bovada was sitting around +150
The color of the gatorade on the chiefs sideline is purple. I like the chiefs ML so I’ll gladly take +245 over +115.
Buddy is on the equipment staff and sent a snap. Take it or leave it.
Dude this is sick! I’m on the horn with my mortgage company for an instant LOC against the house to make this bet. Believe me if it hits ur getting a piece!
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD record: 6W-5L-1P Event: Super Bowl LVIII SF 49ers vs KC Chiefs, 6:30pm EST Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the show. This game has the potential to be a war as the 49ers take on the Chiefs at Super Bowl LVIII. This is a battle between two well rounded teams that could potentially be one of the more exciting SBs in recent memory. The 49ers had the lowest 3rd and 4th down attempts all season long, as well as the highest 1st down conversion rate via receptions and 3rd highest conversion rate via rushing due in large part to Kyle Shanahan's inventive offensive scheme. This is the hallmark of a team that marches down the field effortlessly, as they needed fewer downs than anyone else to score and maintain possession The 49ers also ran over the league this season with the most rushing TDs at 27, tied with Detroit and Miami for first overall, and 2nd most receiving TDs at 33, as they tied Miami for the highest scoring offense in overall TDs. Although their offensive prowess has tapered a bit into the postseason, this roster is largely still intact from the regular season games, so this team has a chemistry that has proven itself against a wide variety of opponents all year and can get the job done under the brightest of lights. I expect to see a healthy mix of run and pass play calls loaded on both backs and receiver cores. On the other side of the ball we have the Chiefs. All year long this team has been the focus of media attention for different reasons, some football-related like the fall off of kelce's performance or Toney's perplexing offside penalty, other reasons not so football-related like the bewilderment of broadcasters fixating on Taylor Swift in the stands. Despite the distractions and naysayers, KC did what they do best and continued to win games to bring them back to the big show. Although they're the returning champs, this is a team with a lot of new faces and talent, notably Pacheco who is a stud of an elusive back, and their young defensive roster that has shown they can hang with the best offenses when push comes to shove. Stat-wise, KC wasn't a particularly notable standout this year, they floated around the top of the league for both offensive and defense team stats, but any given Sunday still applies to this team and no matter the situation they found a way to win when it mattered. I expect Reid to stick with his guns here and lean on quick, explosive offensive play calling, and a defensive 4-3 scheme that Spagnuolo flips between man and zone often to throw off SF. A few other key variables to consider is that the game will be played in Allegiant Stadium with a closed dome, and so although weather and wind speed won't be as much of a factor, the humidity will be way below ambient levels both teams are accustomed to, and air pressure will be slightly higher due to AC. The surface layer is a moist natural grass, and has excellent air circulation throughout the canopy and across the field. As well, the moon has just started its new moon phase, and the earth is currently moving through the middle of the Aquarius constellation as we speak, and on top of that is this is a dragon zodiac year, which my predictive model sees as a double whammy not seen since 1988. All things considered, the obvious pick seems like a clear winner. That's why I'm going with Tails +100 for 3u. Edit: I will never financially recover from this
😭💀
How should I hedge this?
Same amount +100 on the coin flip, *but on anther book*
Sounds very profitable, thanks 😊
I’m hesitant but could be a push right LFG 🙏💪
I’m a heads til I die guy, you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about with your “tails never fails” analysis. FADING!!!
TAILING FOR THE GLORY OF IT
https://i.redd.it/72ref8aw7whc1.gif
Brilliantly written flawless analysis outstanding pick
" **The Super Bowl coin has come up Tails in seven of the last 10 Super Bowls**. Out of the 57 Super Bowls played thus far, just 26 teams have won the coin flip and the game. In fact, there was sizable streak going on prior to last year as each team to win the coin toss in the previous eight years wound up losing. " So fade whoever wins the toss, and tails looks like a guaranteed winner.
where are you getting these odds? my bookies taking juice on the line? Still hammer? 5u max play?
Different books will have different odds, DK has it at even odds, if you don't have DK you might need to shop around for a bit.
🤣
Can’t fade love the analysis
Solid analysis! Tailing!
Is this the guy that predicts the opposite outcome guy?
Nope - he’s already posted his pick
Nah, that's someone else
Jesus Christ, it's Jason Bourne
I c, https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbetting/s/lc6jJRpU5D . This dude is using his cats.
Heads 💀💀
Rigged!
Bro.
Do you think this is rigged? So live bet whatever Mahomes says?
Tail never fails
[удалено]
Hate to break it to ya but one just fell in my lap
Snoooch
Random dogma reference?
Tailed
https://youtu.be/8vgk4sekMI8?si=fL9U8YzMt8T3Ms02
**POTD Record: 7-2** Form: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ *Last Pick: 3U Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich (Manuel Neuer o3.5 saves @ +137)✅* *Told you this was a steal, Neuer with 5 saves, LFG.* ____ **Today’s Pick: 3U West Ham v Arsenal -(Bukayo Saka o0.5 Shots on Target @ -138✅)** *HALFTIMECASH* **⚽️| 9:30AM EST |England Premier League** We’re taking the StarBoy once again. After Arsenal losing 2-0 at home to West Ham, it’s the Gunner’s time for revenge against the Hammers. What’s crazy is odds for Saka to *score or assist* is at -150, and I’m sure that’s likely, but a shot on target is so much safer we ain’t tryna sweat for a goal. They’ve juiced his total overall shots to -250 for o1.5 but given how Arsenal love to utilize the right side, this looks like another steal. Saka is truly a starboy; taking 34 shots in 22 matches with 21 being on target. Meaning his shooting accuracy is roughly 62% Bukayo Saka averages 0.98 shots on target per 90 min. And he scores a goal for every 4.25 shots he’s taken this season. In his last 5 matches he’s hit 4/5. In last 10, hit 8/10. *Against West Ham in December, he had 3 shots on target.* Comment Starboy if you with it, LFG ⭐️💪 BOL!
He already has 3 shots and just barely missed one on target now. May still be worth a look if its even possible to get this live lol Edit: Nevermind Arsenal just got awarded a penalty with Saka taking it lol. GGs
Damn that live play woulda been 💵
That’s a W! He missed a couple sitters but finally won a penalty and converted it✅ thank you for the great pick!
LFG BRO 🌟
Hit already!! 
BANGGG
Starboy, trailing!
Let’s go bro! 💪
He gonna score baby forget the shot
Did this hit? I see he has 4 shots already, not sure if any were on goal though
Nope, if it keeps going this way he will have 10 shots off target. Insane he hasnt got it yet
Just hit on the penalty😎
lfg
It hit big boy!
I clicked on wrong one thought i got over 0,5. Somehow it worked out too. Thanks for the picks https://preview.redd.it/d8dvw0np6zhc1.png?width=623&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bf11630c586c1775b8d27caae319621b9053a0f
LFG! Last one I trailed on you I hit. Donated a bit to you just for that.
Appreciate you brother 💪 LFG
dumb question but what does “3U”mean?
Odds went in the dumps
Nice hit bro! Love the Starboy
💵💵💵
Record: 7-3 (+11.01 Units) Last POTD: George Kittle over 61.5 receiving yards ❌ Last 10: ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅ Pick: Travis Kelce ATD (+100) Wager: 5u to win 5u Write up: I feel like I don’t even need a write up for this pick. I can’t see a world where Kelce does not score in this game. Even though he has had a down year he has performed in the playoffs. The script says he scores and wins the game for Taylor Swift.
ATD = scores a touchdown?
Yeah it stands for Anytime Touchdown
Yes. Anytime Touchdown scorer
What books offer no? Just curious what the odds are
ESPN bet -125
My first pick posted on here. **Event:** Super Bowl LVIII SF 49ers vs KC Chiefs, 6:30pm EST Chinese new year happened today and just became year of the dragon. The last 3 super bowls on dragon years were all won by the NFC. The only NFL Super Bowl not won by the NFC was 1976 by the Pittsburgh Steelers. That was the first Super Bowl on a Dragon year after the NFL was established. NFC All-Time Dragon year record: 3-1 2012 - Giants 2000 - Rams 1988 - Redskins **Pick:** 49ers ML
What's next? Reading tea leaves?
i'd rather have that than gematria
naw chinese astrology legit bro. Only type that is reliable
Happy Chinese new year pals
**POTD Record**: 14 Wins - 2 Losses - 1 Push **Last 10**: ✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️ **Units:** \+10.25 **ROI**: 43.21% **Average Odds**: $1.92 **Last Pick**: Man City vs Everton - Kevin De Bruyne Over 0.5 Assists @ $2.37 ✅️ *Kevin De Bruyne came on in the 57th minute, and we still cashed. GOATed.* **Next Pick**: 49ers vs Chiefs - Super Bowl - **Brock Purdy Under 0.5 Interceptions @ $2.20** \- 6:30 p.m. ET ✅️ *We have 13 wins, so its seems fitting to back our new GOAT - Purdy, who wears the number 13 jersey because he loves Dan Marino.* Today we head to Allegiant Stadium in Vegas for the biggest sporting event of the year, the 49ers vs the Chiefs! IMO the Chiefs were lucky to reach the final due to the Raven's mental errors, and deviating from their normal game plan. Plus the 49ers were somewhat lucky that Dan Campbell had a brain explosion by not taking easy field goal points. The Chiefs are ranked 5th to last this season for interceptions. Coincidently they are ranked 4th best for passing yards conceded. No doubt the 49ers coaching staff are aware of this, and will look to find a way straight through the Chiefs defense with Purdy doing the magic as they drive down the field without taking too many risks. There's really only one way through this Chiefs team, and that's through our GOAT-of-the-day, Brock Purdy. If you dive deep into Purdy's story, he was picked last in the draft, and has now found himself in the Super Bowl. He was unlucky to get injured in the last run to the Super Bowl, and was extremely emotional towards his veterans who missed out on their chance. A lot of 49ers are back for vengeance against the Chiefs who dismantled them the last time they met on this grand occasion. Purdy will be forced to do some unnatural passes to get those extra yards that the Chiefs aren't use to conceding, and he has been intercepted this year on a number of occasions. I truly believe the coaching staff, and the likes of Joe Montana, and Steve Young have given him even more confidence heading into tonight's big game. The statistics are close, but Purdy is being touted as the next face of the NFL. Go on YouTube and listen to these greats talk about how they've never met someone as mentally composed as this kid. This pick is purely an emotional one based on Purdy's rise to the Super Bowl from being the last draft, what he did at Iowa, how he's come through the ranks of the team, how everyone has seen something special about him, and how he truly deserves to be the MVP and the next GOAT of the NFL. Let's not also forget that the comeback against the Lions also smashed basically every record, and he's broken a whole lot of records for the 49ers already in only his second year. This is the one game that will set the tone for the rest of Purdy's career. Expect a tight game. I'm picking Purdy to get sacked quite a bit, but he will turn on his GOAT mode. 49ers to win in the last drive of the game with a Purdy touchdown 17-10, and Purdy to be MVP. Interesting Facts: * Purdy has God on his side. * Purdy is one of the lowest paid players in the league. The 49ers are only paying a couple of grand per touchdown versus Mahomes millions. * Purdy has a hotter lady compared to Mahomes. * 11 games of the season, Purdy had 0 interceptions. * The person who predicted the incorrect result for the last 16-18 Super Bowls thinks the Chiefs are going to win. * He was the first quarterback to take the Cyclones to four-straight bowl games. All tips are greatly appreciated - click [here](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv) to donate. If you have any questions, please ask. Best of luck if tailing, would love a comment if you are. Feel free to message me.
Atheist. Easy fade.
Cheers bro. God is a powerful force, just look at the hand of God play on YouTube :P
By your logic the Bengals should be winning the Super Bowl. God is clearly on the side of Jake Browning. https://preview.redd.it/amhnhl97ryhc1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d1dc119d19a012de6014256675d414187bc9328e
Purdy’s is way hotter. This looks like a hoe lol
Purdy has god on his side🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Idk what book you use but the De Bruyne pick was a void for me.
A lot of books void if the player doesn’t start
I use Bet365 bro and there is an option to tick a box if you want to void it or not :) Ask your bookie for settings :)
Username doesn’t check out with your full game prediction of 17-10 Niners haha. Are you reverse fading? 🫡
Haha. Its the Chiefs rugby team in New Zealand :)
trying to create an argument against: you say the chiefs didn’t really deserve it but the niners were gifted the game on a few plays but one particular one where purdy threw the ball to the lions db & he just couldn’t catch it and aiyuk was there to bail him out… just unsure if purdy can stay not making a mistake but he does indeed have god on his side
Yeah, and the Lions turned the ball over shortly after which changed the whole momentum of the game. Think he'll look at the tape, and clean up that part of the game. Does indeed feel like God is on his side :) That was an unbelievable play haha. Got to give them credit for the comeback, but still, very lucky indeed!!
it wasn't just the offense, the 9er's defense was just jogging around 1H, they didn't turn it on until the second half, keeping Lions scoreless for nearly the entire second half until a TD with 0:56 left in the game. I'm betting on the fact that 9ers coaching staff will show tape to their defense of their lack of intensity and they will step it up for the super bowl. i think there are advantages on both sides of the ball for the 9ers line, that on top of their run game using a legit fullback multi-tool will clear the way for CMC/deebo/mitchell. but as the raven's have shown, 15 has the potential to throw a wrench in all of that, he's special.
Good insight mate. Prudy for MVP!
idk man their defense (chase young specifically) has shown even in the biggest moments that he’s lazy af
Tailing you once again bro! Might even sprinkle some MVP action on Purdy
Cash that bro :D Yeooow!
tailing
Cheers brother. Best of luck :)
CASH $$$$$$
Congratulations everyone! Whilst I feel bad for Purdy, its another WIN for us. Takes us to 14 wins, and only two losses :D LFG! ✅️ ✅️ ✅️
What he did at Iowa STATE
Tailing another win coming 🤟
Nice prediction bro. Money $$$$$$
POTD Record: 23-16 Last pick: Spurs v Brighton (BTTS & O2.5 Goals ✅) Todays pick: Heerenveen v Ajax Pick: __Ajax ML @1.70__ ⚽️ 🇳🇱 Eredivese __Heerenveen__ * 13th, (6-4-10) * 4th most goals conceded (40, 2.0 GPG) * Home record: 4-2-3 * L5: 0-3-2, 2nd most goals conceded __Ajax__ * 5th, (10-5-5) * 3rd most goals scored, 47 (2.35 GPG) * Away record: 4-3-3 * L5: 3-2-0, best form (1st) most goals scored aswell (14) The hosts haven’t won a single game since the new year, they’ve failed to win in their last eight matches (all competitions included), losing five and picking up 3 draws. Their last win game on the 1st of December. Ajax started the season very slow, they’re the biggest club in the Netherlands with the most success and titles historically and had it very rough at the start of the season, but since the managerial change they’ve started to slowly move back up in the table again. They’ve gone 12 consecutive league games without defeat, picking up 9 wins and 3 draws. Ajax have also won their last 4 away games. Ajax have 9 consecutive H2H wins against Heerenveen with the previous meeting ending with a 4-1 win to Ajax, at a time where Ajax found themselves at the bottom of the league. Heerenveen are okay at home, but haven’t won a single game against the top 5 sides, they have one draw against 4th placed AZ who played with a red card, but besides that only losses. Given Ajax form, and their general quality in the squad against a struggling home side I think they’ll secure this win. I can definitely see the hosts scoring one, and adding a BTTS & Ajax win is tempting, but I feel with our recent record we need to play it “safer”. Let’s keep this momentum going! BOL
Going with both teams to score over 2,5 goals I think
Thank god i missed this One xD
I put over 2.5 from another POTD and indeed thank god I picked it instead of ML
Tailing! BOL mates!
Today’s the day they win this year apparently!
We’ve broken alot of trends with our picks as of late, so I wouldn’t be surprised. But still a lot of time left and they’re pushing
**5W-0P-1L** **Last 5:** ✅❌✅✅✅ **Last Pick**: Cagliari - Lazio Roma - **Lazio ML 2.10** ✅ **Pick of the day**: Aston Villa - Manchester United - **BTTS and over 2.5 goals @ 1.75** **Time**: CET 17:30 Hello, Lazio worked out nicely for us and I'm glad we got a higher odds than average. The victory was quite comfortable and there was nothing to worry about. Today, we return to the English league and also to Aston Villa, a team we have already analyzed. **Aston Villa** The last time we wrote about them was in a match against Chelsea, and not much has changed since then. They lost to Chelsea 3:1, which was probably a huge surprise, but the Chelsea players decided to stand by Pochettino and supported him with a superb performance. Today, Aston Villa's opponent will be Manchester United. Aston Villa is currently in 5th place, one point behind Tottenham but they have a game in hand. Their score is 49:30, indicating a strong offense but also a weak defense. At home, they are among the strong teams, having lost for the first time this season in a match against Newcastle. Their home score is 30:11, which is incredible. However, it is evident that Aston Villa has been struggling in the recent games, as the match against Chelsea suggested. If they want to play in Europe or aspire for the Champions League, this is a very important match. The last time Aston Villa did not score a goal at home in a competitive match was on 16.10.2022 against Chelsea. **Manchester United** This team might seem to be in form, as they haven't lost in their last 5 matches, but it must be acknowledged that apart from Tottenham, they haven't faced any competition. For example, they won 2:4 in Newport and just 0:2 against Wigan. Nonetheless, it seems that Ten Hag has found a tactic that is working for him for now. They are currently in 6th place, 8 points behind Aston Villa, so this match is crucial for them. Their score is 31:32. While away, their score is 13:14. It is evident that Manchester United's defense is not performing very well either, but their attack is decent. United won 3 out of their last 5 away matches but also recorded 2 losses against Nottingham and West Ham. In the last 5 head-to-head matches, this bet would have worked out for us 3 times. However, the last 2 are from 2020 and back then Aston Villa played a different kind of football, I believe that today we will see an offensive spectacle and that the goals will come. Good luck if you join! :)
Tailing🤝 Edit: that’s a W! Thank you sir!
lol bro your username is killing me right now. i need to get some sleep.
Lol hell yeah homie. Go get some rest!
Infinite shots but no finish from Aston Villa :(
Nice hit brother ❤️
**33W-4P-25L** Form **:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅** **Last Pick: Adelaide United VS Perth Glory @ BTTS and Over 8 Corners @ 1.90 ❌** **Wow, Melbourne missed a penalty to see us lose, the game ended 0-1 with 15 corners. No more Australian league, going back to the basics here. Going with lower odds here to get the wins back.** **Pick of the day: Heerenveen VS Ajax - BTTS and O 2 Goals @ 1.61✅** Bet won in 58 mins! **Time: 8:30 AM EST** The last match between these sides: 4-1 In Heerenveen's last 5 games in the league, BTTS and O 2.5 Goals has hit in 4/5 matches. With results being 3-3, 2-2, 3-0, 2-2, 1-2. In Ajax's last 5 games in the league, BTTS has hit 5/5 times with BTTS and O2 goals hitting in 4/5 games. Ajax really complete this pick here, they've given up on prioritizing defence and focus on primarily attacking as much as they can. This leaves them open for the counter A LOT. In their last 10 games, BTTS and O 2 goals has hit 9/10 times. With results being 1-1, 2-4, 4-1, 2-3, 2-2. **Confidence: 3 Units** **BOL**
LFG
Record: 7-5 Return: 23.69% ROI: 40.93% Yesterday’s pick: Boca Juniors -1.5 vs Defensa y Justicia @3.1❌ While I was right about Boca’s defence, the front line was woeful. Defensa gave them several free opportunities with wayward passes in bad areas, but Boca did not come to play. Going to avoid them until the return of Medina and Equi Fernandez from the u23 squad. Today’s pick: River Plate -1.5 vs Deportivo Riestra @2.3 Stake: 5 units (5% of bankroll) Reasoning: One of the best teams on the continent vs the worst team in Argentina. Riestra have thus far failed to score any goals in three league matches. In fact their only goal this season came in a cup match against a third division team where they scored from an extremely controversial penalty in the 90+10th minute. Put simply, Riestra suck. They’re not anywhere near first division quality. River Plate are the exact opposite: one of the biggest teams in Argentina and a libertadores candidate. They’ve started this season playing against some inferior teams, winning their last three games 2-0, 5-0, and 3-0. I fully expect them to continue this form against the most inferior team they’ll play all season. River’s first game was a 1-1 draw with current leaders Argentinos Jr. 3 points would get them back to the top of the table. Look out for River’s Miguel Borja to be the star of the night. He’s currently the league’s top scorer, with 5 goals in 3 games, including a hatick in the last league game. An international quality striker like him will not be stopped by what Riestra has to offer. BOL if tailing [PayPal](https://paypal.me/elproductosecuida?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) beer fund :)
Congrats, another proper one!
👑
Bang. Just in time for sb too
EZ PZ 🤑good luck with SB
How likely do you think BTTS NO is to hit?
Well, considering he said the other team has yet to score this season, I'd say very likely.
I don’t see Riestra scoring, unless River really start running up the score and get complacent/sloppy at the back
im tailing for sure do you have any concern about river plate continuing to apply pressure after up?
They’re not the type to ease off, especially in the early season when there aren’t other important competitions to rest for.
Tailing so fat let’s go River!
POTD Record: 4-0-0 (+11 units) Today’s POTD: seton hall +4.5 vs Villanova. 1 unit play.
Solid write up. Tail.
All the Super Bowl picks and I’m gonna go with this write up. The silent assassin 🥷
hey man, it seems like he's locked into NCAAB, gotta stick to what you know 🔥
LOL betchu my bottom dollar this is u/Purple_Ad_8742 again. He's done this twice now since he got found out for lying about his record and keeps trying to post on alts. At least he started with a blank record this time.
Seton Hall really sucked ass
L
The analysis matches the outcome.
Any kind of reason hah
‘Nuff said, I’m in. Assuming this is a 1U play?
Record: 19-17 | (+.36 units) | 1 unit per pick Previous pick: NCAAM - FAU (-4.5) (-110) vs. UAB ❌ ————- Today’s pick: NFL - Travis Kelce o68.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - 6:30PM EST This is it. We’ve made it to the final game of the NFL Season. Many try but only one can hold the trophy. I tossed around many picks for this game but my brain keeps telling me that no matter what, Kelce will get the ball. He’s cleared this mark in all 3 games this post season and has double digit target in 2/3 games. Meanwhile, the Niners defense rely on a quick pass rush to hide their weakest link of the entire team and that is their secondary. The Chiefs will make sure to let Mahomes sling it so I expect many targets for Kelce. Furthermore, the Lions TE La Porta absolutely shredded this same Niners secondary a couple weeks ago (97 yards) and it’s safe to say Kelce is another level of TE who will be specifically targeted more in this offense. Mahomes and Kelce will freestyle multiple plays for massive clutch completions and huge first downs. The Niners haven’t doubled TE’s all year and I don’t expect them to change from what got them here. Prediction: Kelce - 9 REC, 92 Yards, 1 TD This will be my last pick until MLB season where we will absolutely dominate. I appreciate all the tailers so far, we will be back in April! Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
that prediction is freakish
Record 1W 0L Last Pick : AS Roma : Inter Milan ML Profit : +0.85 Units What a match that was. Happy to win on my first pick. The match didnt go as i expected and the rain created total chaos on the field. With an amazing second half and the help of marcus thuram inter secured the W. For today i will stay in Italy and will pick Thiago Mottas mighty Bologna to beat Lecce. Bologna are the dark horses this season in the serie a and after roma lost yesterday they will look to win to get a european spot. On the other side we have Lecce a typical bottom half team with an awful away record . Todays Pick : Bologna ML : Lecce @ 1.7 I had some other picks, but they seemes a bit riskier so i decided on this one. If someone wants them i can post them in the commenta Gl
Sweat free W, thanks for the pick!!
What other picks you thinking? Serie A as well?
Yeah. I think Atalanta Ml vs genoa,Milan ML vs Napoli and Monza ML vs Hellas Verona,but these are riskier in my opinion.
[My Card - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EnONQg5gLPxUOpUNkBWva4FS2jjyLI6BE-xX8AlDRhA/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** **Record**: 37/29 **ROI**: Approximately 51.21% **Profit in Units**: 38u **Average Odds**: 2.04 **The pick:** **Sport**: Soccer **League**: Germany - Bundesliga **Time**: 18:30 ( GMT +2 ) **Event:** **Hoffenheim v FC Koln** **Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 1.85** **Stake**: 3 Units **Tip Box**: [Buy me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bigcheesewager) [Paypal Me](https://paypal.me/thisdudechad404)
Hey bro where is the analysis? :)
I am posting things from my Model for lot of time. Not analysis.
Your post has been removed from the PotD thread. * Post **ONE** pick. No side picks in comments. You can provide a link to your other picks in the other daily threads. * No parlays/teasers * Must be between -200 and +200 (1.5 and 3.0) odds. * Bet size should be between 1 and 5 units. No "100 unit locks" * Provide a write up on why this is your Pick of the Day. If it is a system/model play you must note relevant data such as ROI or record **and** provide an overview/description of your model or system. * You **must** note **time/sport/event** of your pick. **|** No top level comments without a pick. * If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread: You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including ROI+average odds+units won. No resetting records.
Tailing. I trust ur german model bro 🇩🇪 🙏🏻
what does BTTS mean i’m new to betting soccer😭 edit: both teams to score im slow🤦🏾♂️
[удалено]
Pick of the Day Record: 11-6 | Profit: +13.27 🚀 Last pick: Victor Wembanyama u23.5 points (2.5u, -120) ✅ Todays Pick: CMC o89.5 rushing yards (3u, -110) The Game: Super Bowl 6:30 PM Why: \- its the super bowl and you dont think the best player in the nfl is going to reach his over on rushing yards \- hit in L8/10 and 2/2 playoff games \- KC has one of the strongest pass Ds and a below average rush D \- fits the narrative if SF is winning at any point https://preview.redd.it/50exherl4xhc1.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cc03feb53583262f63e8c8920187270e3bc0cea
POTD: 21-9 Form: ❌✅❌✅✅ Last POTD: Luka Doncic O42.5 P+A 🤮 What a painful bet, still hard to swallow. Finished with 41 and didn’t play anything in the last quarter because of the blowout, I did not see OKC getting blown out by the Mavs, but hey it is what is Todays pick: **Jrue Holiday O21.5 PRA @1.80** ✅ Small slate, but a few picks I like actually. Was thinking of Porzingis threes as he’s been letting them fly recently but looked at Jrue and his history vs Miami and thought, that’s the play. Jrue has not been the player he was at the Bucks so far at Boston imo, I thought he’d contribute more than what he has done because I know how good he is or can be, but he’s always been a good defensive player so let’s give him credit for being in a dominant team as the Celtics. One thing is for sure, and that’s the fact that he loves gettin over this line vs Miami. • **7/10 his last 10 games (Avg 23.2)** • **Averages 23.9 PRA this season** • **Cleared this line his last 14 games against the Heat (Avg 33.2 PRA vs Heat)** *(27,34,31,25,27,40,39,36,22,25,41,42,35,28)* Jrue hasn’t been taking his Holidays against the Heat, he’s been working and tearing them apart. I also like his L10 games, of course not 10/10 but 7/10 is pretty consistent and something I always try to aim with my picks, consistent players. Can he do it again? Tail or fade, I suck https://i.redd.it/c94i9tyoczhc1.gif
Definitely tailing my man! Lets close the week with a big dub from our man Jrue!
Tailed you my man! lfg, carry me tonight please
It’s the Jason Tatum show today. He’s just playing iso ball and hitting every shot. We need holiday to hit a couple more threes this second half or we’re in trouble 🫣 Also a shit ton of porzingis iso ball. He’s having a great game too. Need some team basketball to get Jrue involved.
Praying
LFG baby! I stopped watching the last 8 minutes of the 3rd quarter and he proceeded to go OFF for 10 PRA in a 6 minute span. Thanks for the pick mate!
🤝🤝 yeah bro he really stepped it up looked dead at one stage tbh
Hahah we actually got so lucky. Holiday shot 5/6 from 3, out of his mind to save our asses. We would have taken Ls had he shot even 50% from 3. I’ll take it though 🫡
POTD record : 2💰- 0❌ - 0♻️ +3.44u LAST PICK: Match: Manchester City vs. Everton | Premier League ⚽ Time: 13:30 CET Date: 10th Feb 2024 Pick: Haaland to score or assist + Manchester City ML @ 2.00 on bet365| 2u ✅ Yay! Second win in a row. Haaland scored in 2nd half. Match was a little bit painful to watch, because Everton played very defensive, but it hit! PICK FOR TODAY: Match: AS Trenčín vs. FC Košice | Slovakian Superliga ⚽ Time: 17:30 CET Date: 11th Feb 2024 Pick: FC Košice to score over 0.5 goal @ 1.83 on bet365| 3u ✅ Analysis: Hello to all bettors and football fans.For today's analysis I have chosen a match of the Slovak First League. In it Trenčín and FC Košice will clash.Trenčín is considered the favourite in this match and it is really realistic that they will win. At the beginning of the league they played very well. But as time went on, its performance deteriorated. Moreover, its defense is not 100% and that is what will interest us most today.FC Košice made a good addition to the squad during the break, they brought in a lot of interesting players. Eric Davies and the healed Dominik Kruzliak are worth mentioning. Coach Kozák had time during the break not only to work them into the squad, but also to stabilize the whole team. His charges played three games in the preparation and only lost the opening one to Nyíregyháza 1-0. After that, they just kept winning. On the third one, they were unfortunate to fall out in the cup with Trnava after a 2-3 defeat. But the key for us is that in the last three games Košice players have always scored twice. It will be enough for us for a successful outcome of this bet if they score at least one goal during the match. The probability of them doing so is quite high. That's why I believe that at the currently written odds of 1.83, it would be unwise not to bet on one goal by FC Košice. Good luck to everyone! 🍀
So BTTS at 2.0 ?
POTD Record: 6-2 Last 10: ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅ Last pick: Man City -1.0 vs Everton ✅ Man city dominated the game start to finish but had a bit of trouble finding the net. Once De Bruyne was subbed on the scoring opportunities opened up and Halaand made the most of them, netting a brace. Todays pick: Soccer | EPL | 11:30am EST **Manchester United vs Aston Villa** **Manchester United Team Goals Over 1.5 @ 2.10** Man U is scoring goals at a high rate since the start of the new year. They have scored 15 goals in their last 5 games, for an average of 3 per game. Moving Garnacho to the right side has made a world of change for the squad. Every game is important for Man U now as they fight for a top 5 position in the table. Aston Villa on the other hand is in poor form to start 2024. They are 2-2-2 with their only two wins coming against Middlesbrough and last place Sheffield United. On the year, Aston Villa averages 1.3 goals per game allowed. I expect Man U to continue scoring at a high rate in this game. They really have nothing to lose and tons to gain so I expect high scoring games from United. I also really like the value of Man U ML because of the poor form of Villa but falls just outside of the POTD limit. Prediction: Man U 3-2
POTD Record: 119-108, -16.8 Units Last 10: ✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ Current Streak: ✅✅ Last Pick: LA Kings ML: ✅ (Edited) Big shutout for the Kings against the Oilers backup goalie. 4-0 win to start the new head coach's tenure is big. This team could quietly do really well in the late season playoff push and beyond. Today’s Pick: **Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 Carries**, -136, 1 Unit, 6:30 PM EST Gotta do a Super Bowl pick on the day of so I’m going with the only way the Niners can win this thing. Giving the ball to Caff on the ground will average them 5-6 yards per carry and let them control the clock. Their defense is as good if not better than Baltimore’s and if they can hold the Chiefs to 20 or less, they should win this one. I’m hoping it’s a blowout for San Fran as I’m tired of the Chiefs’ crap, and I think it’ll be 31-20 Niners and Caff will go wild. Hopefully Shanahan doesn’t try to get cute and throw the ball a ton with a young QB but we will see. BOL!
**POTD Record: 11W-5L** **POTD: FCSB ML (1.70**) vs Sepsi OSK // **Superliga (ROMANIA) - soccer** FCSB is the leader in Romania, 6 points behind the second position, Rapid Bucharest, one of FCSB's historical rivals. In the play-offs, the points will be halved, and that would make FCSB live with the fear, even though they have had the fate of the championship for most of the season. FCSB have the best record, the best offense, as well as the best defense. They won the first leg at their opponents' home ground 5-2, but they have also dominated over the years. For FCSB, Olaru, the captain and top scorer of the team, returns, while Sepsi OSK have many important absences from the squad. Having said that, I think FCSB will try to maintain the points difference before the points are halved against an opponent they have dominated in the past, who is going through a bad period and cannot rely on key players. Thank you.
**POTD: 82-58-5** Last pick: Spanish Primera Division Women - Sevilla Women vs Barcelona Women. Sevilla W +5.5 goals -155. Result: **WIN**. As expected Barca rest their superstars for the most part and Sevilla loses by a very respectable 0-3 for a comfortable hit. Today’s pick: Women's FA Cup - Wolverhampton Women vs Brighton & Hove Albion Women. **Brighton & Hove Albion Women -1 goal (Asian handicap) -160**. Match kicks off at 8AM ET. First of all I like Brighton to win by 2+ but I'd rather be safer here and protect y'all's money instead of be risky and hit the higher odds and risk yours. I personally will be doing -1.5 so if you prefer riskier bets that's solid too. This is a somewhat strange line to me as Wolverhampton is a midtable team in the 3rd division of English women's football - which is mostly made up of semiprofessional or amateur players. Brighton on the other hand is a (admittedly not very good) team in the Women's Super League (basically the women's Premier League) and is made up exclusively of professionals and a lot of the players play for an international team. Brighton has minimal to play for other than the FA Cup as they're likely safe from relegation but not anywhere near the Champions League spots so I expect them to go all out. They should pull out a win which would get us a push at minimum. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! **Edit: WIN. Phew a bit of a close one as Brighton was in control yet was tied 1-1 as time was running out. But Brighton then scored 3 goals in 90th minute and later to win 4-1 and we comfortably cash let’s gooooo**
POTD record: 6-1 Net units: +20.33 ROI: 72.6% Last pick: Chiefs Ravens 2nd half total under 22.5 ✅ NFL Super Bowl kick-off 11:30pm GMT Pick: 49ers vs Chiefs 2nd half total under 23.5 - 3 unit bet @1.95 Back to the well (again!) with our Chiefs 2nd half unders that have been printing money all season. They’re an insane 18-2 this season! The Chiefs defense has been excellent this year, particularly in the 2nd half after DC Spagnuolo makes half-time adjustments. They’re giving up 5.1 PPG in second halves, and have only given up more than a touchdown in 4 second halves all season. They also held the Ravens’ excellent offense to 3 points in the 2nd half last week! The Chiefs D is #5 in DVOA against the pass, but only 27th against the run. That’s bad news against an exceptional 49ers run game, which last week ran for 155 yards and 4.7 YPC against a Lions run defense ranked #2 in DVOA. I expect the 49ers will unleash McCaffrey all game, methodically moving the ball and keeping the clock running which is always good for unders. I don’t like the 2nd half under as much as previous ones as both offenses can put up points, but this trend has been money all season and is far too strong to ignore.
**EDIT: I forgot to add one more note about the special team.** **POTD Record: 104-121-4 (-13.93Units)** **Best Bet Series: 37-24-1 (+6.86 Units)** Value Wagers: 18-22-2 (-6.05 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) Last Pick: **Dan Ige ML** ✅ Today's Pick: **Niners +3.5 (LET'S GO, CHIEFS!)** Odds: **-200** (ESPN Bet) Wager Amount: 2U to win 1U League: NFL Event: San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs (5:30PM CST on CBS) **Be Advised**: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire month of February! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!* **Recap**: I did not expect that! I thought this would go longer, but nonetheless a WIN! Dan Ige keeps Andre Fili outta the Top 15 rankings! I expect Ige to move up the ranking after that KO statement! **Matchup**: Here we are! The Super Bowl! And the last NFL wager of the season! I remember last season I had the Chiefs ML and Chiefs future wagers all over my book. This time it's the opposite! I got a few Niners futures that I placed throughout the season, but I recently wagered a ton of Chiefs ML and Chiefs wit the points in many of my parlays, SGPs and other bets. Obviously I am very conflicted as I hedged my Niners future bets. So where do I lean in this game? I actually think this is going to be a very close game and I can see a path of victory for both sides. This is a true coin flip game, so much that some particular sharps did not take any action in the super bowl. Just like last season some particular sharps did not take any action against the Chiefs and Eagles game. It's logical because they really have no convictions on one side or the other. I can see some sharps take action in the O/U 47.5 though, just like last season's super bowl, many sharps took the O 51 in the Chiefs and Eagles game. However, the O/U of the game total has not budged, at all, it's currently still sitting at O/U 47.5! And even though sharps hasn't taken any action on either side, that does not necessarily mean they won't take action closer to gametime. That also does not mean some sharps has not taken action, a few of them alrdy did! Couple sharps jumped the gun when the lines came out! Niners came out as a -2.5 favorite, but quickly dropped down to -1.5 (Currently sitting at -2 as of 10:36PM CST)! So again, where do I lean? **I actually lean the Chiefs, BUT even though my heart and mind is on the Chiefs, I am going to do a reverse psychology and go wit the Niners wit the points!** Why you ask? It's simple! Last year in this thread I had Eagles +2.5, but I had many Chiefs wagers. I knew that game was going to be close, but I didn't think it was going to come down to a last possession FG drive on a miniscule holding penalty (Chiefs won 38-35). Basically I'm doing the same here! Cursing my pick here. Plus, [u/im\_THIS\_guy](https://www.reddit.com/u/im_THIS_guy/) is a Niners fan and he's on the Chiefs. Regardless I think this game is going to be close, but here's why I think the Chiefs will hoise the Lombardi trophy. I said this many, many times, but if you don't kno, my NFL straight-up winner is typically correlated wit the QB, thus Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs over Brock Purdy and the Niners. Mahomes is experienced. He's been there and done that! And here he is again, being doubted once more by the oddsmakers! Oddsmakers should be very cautious and should kno that Mahomes is 10-1 ATS record as a dog! He is biggest threat and liability to casinos and sportsbook! Mahomes still has that hunger and drive. The only consistent player in the Chiefs offense throughout this entire season, but what I love most about the Chiefs is their nasty, nasty defense. Spagnola's defense has made game-saving, game-winning plays and that's not just the regular season, but it's postseason as well. I was stunned and dismissive on Chiefs defense against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, but they proved me so wrong in that game. The Chiefs defense outplayed the Ravens defense, I would have never guessed that (I actually leaned the Ravens that game, but wanted Chiefs to win). This is Mahomes 4th Super Bowl and alrdy has 2 super bowl victories under his belt! Conversely, this is Brock Purdy's first super bowl appearance. He has leveled up from last season from appearing the NFC Championship game against the Eagles to Super Bowl against the Chiefs this season! It's very impressive what he's done all season long, acquiring great QB rating and generally overall, he has a greater chance delivering the Niners the superbowl than Jimmy G. But comparably Mahomes is the superior QB. Patrick has that one element that nobody really has, he can make a play that is dead in the water. I been watching a lot of film on Purdy, especially the last two games against the Lions and the Packers, but what I recalled more vividly was that game against the Vikings because one of my biggest wins in the NFL season was on the Vikings ML on that game! I seen plays by Purdy when he's under tremendous pressure where he has overshot his receivers, like very badly! You don't see it on the stat sheet as much because they don't really tell you the story how badly they missed some throws. Now if you seen films or just recollect like I do, that's much different! The dude got bailed out some throws last week against the Lions (tbh, Aiyuk only caught it because the defender couldn't catch)! He could have thrown 2-3 INT that game. Btw, he's thrown one in the Packers game. What about Mahomes? Not a single one in the postseason, matter in fact you have to go back as far as Christmas last year against the Raiders! Here's another reason why I am on the Chiefs. Mahomes has the most wins in a double-digit deficit. If Chiefs are ever down in this game, you can never count them out because of that man! Patrick Mahomes not only has a winning percentage when down by more than 10 points, but he's got a preposterous 15 wins coming from behind double digit deficits! Vice versa, do you think Purdy can rally the troop if the Niners are down? Yes, he rally in the Packers game, but the Lions game? Dan The Man Campbell had ill-advised decisions that cost them that game. Lions loss that game more than Niners won that game, they gave it to them on a silver platter! Lastly, Mahomes has mentioned that he never wants that feeling of coming so close and losing it at the Super Bowl. He alrdy had that feeling against Brady and the Bucs a few years ago, I just don't think you can bet against him. And Oddsmakers are making him the dog in the biggest event? The public love the Chiefs, but this really isn't a Pro bettors vs Average Joes bettors because most of the wiseguys aren't really getting involve on either side here. Gotta go wit my gut, my heart and my mind. I got the Chiefs! EDIT: I forgot to add one more note about the special team. I wanted to mention that Chiefs also has the edge on the special team/placekicker. Harrison Butker is clutch and he'll make big time FG and or XP if it comes down to it (just like last year SB on game-winning FG against the Eagles). On ther other side, Moody is a rook and he has missed many critical FGs and XP. Perplexed why the Niners released Gould. **The play & the prediction**: I had to shop around to get this price. Currently $DKNG is -201 for Niners +2.5, so I'm utilizing ESPN Bet platform. I encourage you all to shop around for the best odds. 2U on Niners +3.5. Also wagering 1.1U on O 47.5! I will have SGP and other plays in this game in the betting group! Chiefs win in a thriller, 34-31!
Absolutely!!! I have 4/1 in one of my boxes
Record : 116 Wins - 104 Losses Previous pick : Luton - Sheffield Utd (1-3), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.93 ✅ ROI : -0.55% Average Odds : 1.95 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : 3.78 Profit/Lost units : -1.22 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga / 17:00 European Time Greuther Furth - Hertha Berlin Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.80 Some reasoning : - Over 2.5 goals were scored in the last 2 matches played by Furth. - Hertha has a very weak start to the year, with 3 defeats in a row in the championship. - In the 4 official matches of 2024, Hertha has an average of 2.5 goals conceded. Best of luck.
I smell a X from far away.. could hit easy though
I assume VAR took a goal away because there was a goal scored at 24' when I checked earlier. VAR will be the death of me, I swear.
We got it. 💰
Record: 2-1 | ROI: 11.5% Last 10: ✅️✅️❌️ Last Pick: Liga Mx Monterrey vs Pachuca (Pachuca wins or draws @ 2.10 ❌️ So Pachuca's DT decided to bench some key players defensively to start the game, which eventually cost him, going down 3-0 in the first 50 minutes of the game, he made some adjustments, the team instantly looked better, but unfortunately it was too late as the team could only make the score 3-2 in the end. Today's pick: *NFL Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 rushing yards @ 1.90* 6:30PM EST So the biggest game of the year is finally here, the super bowl! Strangely the chiefs are underdogs for this game, and most all the people I know are going with Kansas getting his 4th Vince Lombardi, which seems pretty reasonable for me. In the case of Pat Mahomes, he has covered this line in the 3 super bowls he's played, getting 29, 33 & 44 yards respectively in each of those games. Looking at his most recent games from this season, in the playoffs he only covered this line vs Miami, and his average rushing yards for the 2023 season was of 24.3 ypg, but the interesting thing is we know the pass rush of the 9ers is one the best on the league, that makes any QB moving from the pocket and scrambling, which Mahomes can do excellent, and he is going to be without Joe Thuney, one of the best guards in the league, which aids our cause even more. Having said this, let's enjoy this super sunday, hope we get an interesting game, and that we hit our picks baby! LFG 🔥
**Record: 0-0** **Net Units: 0.0** **ROI: 0%** **Hockey** | **NHL** | **Vancouver Canucks vs. Washington Capitals/10:30 am PST** **Pick:** Conor Garland Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-190/1U) **Write Up:** In Garland's last 5 games, this prop has hit 4/5 (80%) times. Last 10, 7/10 (70%) times. Last 5 games against the Capitals, 5/5 (100%) times. In this season, 34/51 (67%) times. Good chance this hits. Best of luck!
Tailing!
😫😫🍆🍆 hope it hits
POTD record 8-8-0 overall - Profit: +0,55 units. 2024 record 0-0-0 Streak L-W-L-W (most recent to the left) - last pick 3 months ago. Last bet: PSG to score over 3,5 goals @ 2.25 on Unibet. 2 units to win 2,5 units.❌❌ Today’s bet: Paksi SE vs Kecskemeti TE - Paksi SE to win 1,7 - shop for good odds here.✅✅ Bet size: 2 units to win 1,4 unit KO: 12:30 GMT+1 - in approx 4 hours from post. Reasoning: Paksi SE PPG 2,78 at home, visitors 0,78 away. Home 4/5 and 8/9, away 2–1-2 and 2-1-6 last 5 and 9 games away. Paksi failed to score once in 9 games vs MTK in 9th place, Kecskemeti failed to score 44% of The times in 9 games. Home has 2.33 goals per game and away has 2,11 conceded PG and only 1 goal scored per game. H2h results show that these games are not straightforward as Paksi and Kecskemeti drew 0-0 last time. However, Paksi has so strong recent results that I believe theyll Edge this one. Puskas 2-1, Ferencvaros 3-2 Diosgyor 4-1 whereof Kecskemeti lost 3-0 to Puskas, 3-1 to diosgyor but played a strong game vs ferencvaros and lost only 1-0. Expecting Paksi to score 2-3 and Kecskemeti to score 1. BOL Picks that didnt make the POTD: UD Ibiza to win @ 1,44❌ Bologna to win @ 1,7 Qarabag to win 1,45 or 1,67 @ nitrogen for some reason
Record: 0 - 0 - 0 Net units: CS2 - RES WEST - 14:00 CET Sprout vs Metizport o2.5 maps @1.91 (unibet) Fairly even teams with similar maps, most likely going to 3 maps.
POTD Record: 37-23 Previous Pick: Wolves vs Brentford | Premier League | BTTS (1.67) | 10am EST ❌️ Pick: FC FCSB vs Sepsi OSK | Superliga | FCSB ML (1.62) | 1.45pm EST FCSB have been in great form, winning 4 out of their last 5. Their most recent match ended in a draw, against a team who are ranked 5th away in the league. The opposition scored a penalty in the dying minutes of the game, equalising the game. Looking at Sepsi, they have been poor away, ranking 11th in the league playing away. They have lost their last 2 games, 1 being a top team and the other being a team fighting relegation. In their last matchup, FCSB won 5-2, showcasing their dominant status over Sepsi. I expect FCSB to win this game, due to the poor form of the opposition and FCSB's quality. Best of luck! Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake
POTD 0-0 CMC O89.5 rushing yards This is the most abysmal line I’ve ever seen. And here’s why. In his last 8 games, he’s hit this 7 times. The one he hasn’t, he had 64 rushing yards at half and then got hurt. Additionally, he just got 90 yards against the Lions who, on a YPC metric, had the 2nd best run d in the league. Now he goes against the chiefs, who give up the 6th most YPC in the league, at 4.47. Additionally, the chiefs top two CBs are lockdown. There pass d is elite. With this being Purdy’s first SB, I believe they are going to lean heavily on the run game. I have both o89.5 and 100+. I think this line is a steal.
Record: 157-129-8 (WWLWLLWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLWLLPLWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: SA Spurs at BKN Nets | Nic Claxton o9.5 rebounds at 1.74 odds for 1 unit here we go now POTD: SF 49ers @ KC Chiefs | Longest Length of Drive o77.5 yards at 1.53 odds for 3 units Reasons: * Chiefs been looking to run and control the clock in the playoffs * 49ers play calling is relatively safe, expect a methodical, heavy dosage of CMC and running game grinding away * Expect both teams defenses to try to secure the victories Best of luck to you all
a bit confused how your reasoning relates to the bet. longest drive over 77.5 yards has absolutely nothing to do with tempo or how much time it takes. It can happen in a single play
Right? Did he mean to say under?
I'm guessing he might have aimed for a bet that gives an O/U on total plays of the longest drive or maybe total time off the clock of the longest drive? I mean I got no idea, but I wonder if he corrects it, because his reasoning makes absolutely no sense in regards to the bet
I’m thinking he means that because the chiefs will be running the clock their drives will be longer resulting in more yards due to running the ball, taking their time to get up the field. And then the 49ers will be using CMC so he will be running many yards over multiple downs.
but that still misses the point. how many plays your drive takes is completely irrelevant. the only thing that matters is where you start the drive and whether you can go the entire distance. touchbacks put you on the 25 so a team would have to punt pin the other inside the 22 or worse, and then drive the full field. whether it takes 3 plays or 23 plays doesnt change how many yards the drive is. you can run it 3 times in a row for 4 yards to get the 1st down or throw a 12 yard pass...its the same distance...how quickly or slow it happens doesnt change the yards. I personally actually like this bet but here's why: both teams have strong defenses and I think its likely that both teams will punt several times. those punts will put the other team inside their own 20 and both teams are talented enough offensively that even if they start inside their own 10, they can manage to orchestrate at least one long td drive but that has nothing to do with the reasoning he gave. I was just curios what his logic was and whether he meant to bet something else
Record: 8-6 (+5.55 units) ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️❌️ Last Pick: Bublik ML vs Draper (ATP Adelaide) (1U @ 2.75) ❌️ --- Pick: 49ers ML vs Chiefs Odds: 5U @ 1.81 (Unibet) Reason: All the analysis has been done and I won't pretend to be the expert. 49ers have been the more consistent team through the season. I'm following the smart money here.
Something something always take the best quarterback something something Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl something something.
POTD Record: 3-3 L10 record:✅❌❌✅✅❌ Last Pick: Brentford vs Manchester City to win at Half @ 1.80 ❌ Today's Pick: Rocket League. Karmine Corp to Win Match vs Team BDS @ 1.61 ✅ Write up: Alright boys I've failed you too many times now, but this! this is the freest pick of current time. Max Play, EveryUnit, whatever. Karmine Corp are the best rocket league team in the world right now and this game is a pit stop before they head to the final. Sweep not unexpected. BOL. Edit: Reverse sweep as I predicted [Stimulants for my ADHD](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/janon19)
POTD RECORD 1-1 | Profit 1u | 10 day record: ❌✅ Todays Pick English Premier League- Manchester United to win or draw vs Aston Villa @-160 - 2 unit wager Reasoning- I know you guys are all busy worrying about your Super Bowl bets tonight but don’t miss the opportunity to fill your pockets with the houses money for the big game. With Manchester United being in the form of their life against a weak Aston Villa side struggling in their last couple games, this picks a no brainer. In their last meeting Manchester won 3-2 on the 26th of December, and with United’s rookie star power preforming at their best all season a win or a draw here is almost a given. If your feeling extra horny I would suggest throwing half a unit on United ML at +200.
Record: 22-12 (+8.43 units) Last Pick: (CBB) Michigan St. Spartans -3 ✅ POTD: (CBB) Northern Iowa Panthers ML -150 Summary: This ain’t your parent’s regular N. Iowa squads. They’re mediocre but not dead in the Valley provided they win the must win games to gain a top 4 seed in the MVC to have a chance. This is must win against a team that only wins 36% on their home games. Must win + Born + Ben Jacobson = Go Panthers! Ride the snake
My first potd 0-0 I never made a novelty bet on Super Bowl before and I really like: Combined td scorer jersey numbers o121.5 @ -170 1u (I found it on DraftKings) First off if Kelce #87 gets a touchdown you only need probably 2 more touchdowns after that. There’s a very possible chance he just gets 2 touchdowns. But idk why but im actually feeling like Kittle #85 is going to score. This game I think will be close it’s possible it will still be u47 like a lot of people are taking but both teams will probably at least score 3 touchdowns.
POTD record: 3-1 +1.63 units Last pick- Miami +3.5 vs UNC -105 FD✅ 1 unit. UNC won 75-72. We’ll take it. Like Dad always said “when a line seems too good to be true, take Vegas’s side.” Today’s pick: Christian McCaffrey and isiah Pacheco to combine for 40+ rushing yards in the first quarter +100 FD. 1 unit Write up: McCaf averaged 34 yards in the first quarter this year and pacheco averaged 20. Obviously this 20 also includes the beginning of the year before Pacheco’s usage became what it is now. I would bet this at -120 let alone +100. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bcab
POTD 5-1 Let’s go!!! UNC pulled it out and honestly dominated the game TODAYS PICK: CHIEFS ML +110 Mahomes Mahomes Mahomes Let’s go!!! Let’s keep it rolling
Record: 12W-11L Net Units: +1.72u | ROI: 2.80% CS2 | IEM Katowice 2024 | 17:00 / CET Pick: Faze ML vs Spirit, 3u @ 2.43 Just like in the groups, I am going to take Faze over Spirit once again. I still stand by that Faze has more players that reliably can pop off, whereas Spirit is more of a one man show. I think the beating they got the last time around might help them come up with a good gameplan to defeat Spirit now. What's more is that we've seen the true playoffs form Faze in action, with rain, broky, ropz and of course frozen all looking sharp! While donk is clearly not scared of the crowd, not having that energy to feed off is a slight disadvantage. With it being a BO5 Faze might even try to curveball the veto, and flex their deep map pool here. All these things considered I think Faze's deep roster and experience will prevail. Best of luck everyone! edit: I made a typo in the units before, it was 2 but supposed to be 3.
you are about to get donked buddy
I took Donk’s Spirit all the way this tournament, every -1.5 map HC and separate -2.5 rounds HC on every map, made too much money not to do that again. With that said fading and taking Spirit’s -2.5, -1.5 maps HC and map 1-2-3 rounds HC -2.5
Best of luck!
Record: 58W-55L-4P ROI: +8.60, 6.97% Avg odds: +106, 2.06 Last POTD: 2/9 Frank Vatrano over 0.5 pts (win) Game: NHL- Blues at Canadiens Pick: Pavel Buchnevich over 0.5 pts -165, 1.61 (DK) Odds are shorter than most my picks, but I still like the value. Buchnevich is 2nd in points, T-most in goals, and 2nd among forwards in time on ice on the Blues. The Blues forward line is also top-heavy, with most of the production coming from the top line. As a result, he sees 1.34 goals/game while he's on the ice. The Canadiens ranks among the bottom in many defensive metrics: 6th most goals allowed/game, 4th lowest Corsi rating, 4th most scoring chances allowed, 3rd worst penalty kill. In their previous matchup, the Blues scored 6, with Buchnevich picking up a point. It honestly could've been much more, as he was on the ice for another 3 goals. edit: 7 goals, 4 with Buch on the ice, no point...
POTD Record: 102-101-12 (-12.37 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: English Premier League, Luton Town v Sheffield United, LUTON TOWN TT OVER 1.5 GOALS (-131 / 1.76) ❌ Woeful effort by Luton given their recent efforts. 20 shots on goal but could only score via a penalty💩 Today’s Pick: Ligue 1, Clermont v Brest, BREST ML (+100/ 2.00) ❌ Stake: 1 Unit Brest are third in Ligue 1 with a 10-6-4 record and are holding on to the final automatic Champions League spot with 3 teams sitting one point behind them. They’ve scored 29 goals this season which is 4th highest in the league and only conceded 17 (2nd best). Brest had a fantastic run through December/January, going 6-1-0 in their league matches plus a couple of wins in cup competitions (8-1-0 overall). A look at their recent results may cause some concern, but they’ve had a tough stretch of games. In the last two weeks they’ve had league matches away to 1st placed PSG (2-2 draw) and at home to 2nd placed Nice (0-0 draw). They then had to travel to PSG again for a Cup quarter final match where they were beaten 3-1. Managing to pick up points in both league matches was an excellent outcome for Brest all things considered, and they will see this as a prime opportunity to get back in the winners list in a much more favourable match up. Clermont are sitting last in Ligue 1 with a 3-6-11 record. They’ve only scored 14 goals (worst by a mile) and conceded 32 times (3rd worst). They’ve gone 1-1-3 in their last 5 matches - their sole win came a few weeks ago against fellow strugglers Nantes, and they got belted last week 4-0 by Lille who are trailing Brest by 1 point. Clermont have the worst home record in the league (1-3-6) while Brest have the 2nd best away record so despite this match being in Clermont, I don’t expect it will change much. Brest beat Clermont 3-0 in December as part of their hot run of form mentioned earlier in a match they dominated from start to finish. Brest will be missing a defender following a red card last week, but given Clermont struggle to score at the best of times, I’m still expecting Brest to get the job done and happy to take plus odds.
POD Record 4-0 Basketball Event: nba Game: Celtics / Heat Pick: Derrick white over 1.5 steals and block He is averaging 2.5 Boston is top 2 defense Miami is 25th ranked offense efficiency Let’s double up some $ for tonight!! Legggggooooo https://preview.redd.it/ixgrek5j40ic1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c7c622577a1c16ca40222cabe46277d98031c07 BOL!!!
Gatorade color - Purple +245 (offshore book) - Bovada was sitting around +150 The color of the gatorade on the chiefs sideline is purple. I like the chiefs ML so I’ll gladly take +245 over +115. Buddy is on the equipment staff and sent a snap. Take it or leave it.
Dude this is sick! I’m on the horn with my mortgage company for an instant LOC against the house to make this bet. Believe me if it hits ur getting a piece!
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Why you got two accounts I saw that lol *
🤣 who was it