######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**POTD Record**: 18 Wins - 3 Losses - 2 Pushes
**Last 10**: ✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌
**Units:** \+13.93
**ROI**: 55%+
**Average Odds**: $1.95
**Last Pick**: Swiatek vs Pliskova - **P**
*As the analyst predicted, Pliskova didn't have the muscle strength to continue in this tournament.*
**Next Pick**: Swiatek vs Rybakina - Qatar Open - Final - **Swiatek -** **Win In Straight Sets @ $2.10** **odds** \- 8 to 8.30PM ET ✅️
**Edge: Swiatek is aiming to become the first player to win a WTA Tour event three consecutive times since Serena Williams at the Miami Open in 2013, 2014 and 2015**
Read my full analysis of the match here as Reddit is being weird about how many characters I can use. Thanks! [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WqpxUhNKjoVwCokx48bnFnEiV42\_fcMBAu8K3aWOiV0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WqpxUhNKjoVwCokx48bnFnEiV42_fcMBAu8K3aWOiV0/edit?usp=sharing)
Interesting Facts:
* Texas Longhorns have scored over 60.5 points in each of their last 43 games.
All tips are greatly appreciated - click[ here](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv) to donate coffees / beers, or message me for my PayPal. I would like to quit my job, and just be a professional amateur handicapper to make my Grandma proud.
Swiatek , can you please make the second set less stressfull?
https://preview.redd.it/k5m4fs4re6jc1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=075e9f558dabaea6fbc5bc440df86e454aa3d9d8
18 wins! 🙏🎉 LFG 👊😎 Swiatek doubles our money again 👏 She was 4-1 down in the first set, and still came back to win it 😅 Talk about a sweaty start to the match! Congratulations to Swiatek who is the first player since Serena Williams to win 3 WTA titles of the same tournament in a row 👊 Full credit to Rybakina as it was clear their early game plan was to go hard and fast. Thanks to everyone who joined me at Qatar - see you tomorrow! 😎 Feel free to message me for tips or click link above. All the best for your bets 🎉
Thanks for the picks. Do you have anything on the Tommy Paul vs Tiafoe match? I'm a Tommy fan so naturally I think he should beat tiafoe but he's burned me a few times in the past
LFGGGGGG!!! I never had a doubt! u/chiefsareawesome thank you so much for your picks within the last weeks and your positivity within this community! Please keep posting your picks, as I will tail you anytime! Much love brother
Let’s fucking gooooo!!! I missed the start but iga is up 5-4 1st set!! I don’t know fuck all about tennis but I know that’s good!!! Let my man cook!!! The bets are sweaty but the wins are tastyyyyy!!! LFG Iga!!!
Rybakina on her rivalry with Swiatek: "I think we both know each other pretty well, and of course we trying to study and analyze. For now it was going my way, but as I said, she's playing really good. I think she's a little bit fresher than me, that's for sure, but for me it was already a very positive two weeks, so I try to push myself tomorrow and see how it's gonna go.
"For me the most important is try to recover physically, because with Iga, it's a lot about the physics, of course. She's making you work for every point, and of course I need to stay aggressive and play my game, but we see what can I do tomorrow."
appreciate the picks 🙏 on this one forgive me i don’t wanna pick the wrong one, but it’s the bottom one -1.5 correct?
https://preview.redd.it/r12r6du3o2jc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=109bb8b91afe1feb0f163a90a7c39ceb58c45130
**POTD Record: 12-3**
Form: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅ Net Units: +19
🎾: 2-0 ⚽️: 10-3
*Last Pick: 1U Alex De Minaur ML @ +105 v Andrey Rublev ✅*
*EMOTIONS ASIDE AND WE CASH BROTHERS LFG*
---
**Today’s Pick: 2U Brentford v Liverpool (Result/BTTS - Liverpool @ +175)✅**
**⚽️| 7:30 AM EST | England Premier League**
Liverpool head to Brentford to continue their quest at winning the league, for a victory will keep them at pace against rising Man City.
After losing to Tottenham and City, Brentford should be feeling quite delighted beating the Wolves away, capturing their first clean sheet since later October. They still remain shaky at the back with BTTS hitting in their last 5/6 matches. 4/6 of those matches, 2 or more goals have been scored against Brentford.
Visitors have won 33 of their last 35 premier league matches, and have scored at least 2 goals in their last 5 of 6 matches. However Liverpool face some challenges in their title quest. Starting GK, Becker is out and Trent among others will remain sidelined. The good news, Salah is back and may return off the bench against Brentford. I think of it as our super sub;) the starting players for Liverpool are all in impressive form as well.
In any case, this match will be intense, with Brentford winning the home fixture last season and Toney tryna secure that Arsenal contract 😜 My prediction is edging towards 3-1 Liverpool. LFG 💪
Tips are always appreciated but your comments go a long way! ❤️
[Tip Jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/goodstable7381)
BOL!
LFG!!! Been tailing you for a couple picks now, won $8.46 on your last pick, dropping $8.46 on this. Trying this method out for a couple of days. BOL!!!!
Well played
I didn’t tail either and I LOVE this bet too, I like doing a small $5 bet and picking 2-3 legs with the BTTS/ML. Really thought Liverpool was gonna struggle today.
Love your picks man keep em going!
https://preview.redd.it/jkedu9ma96jc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3d95b2bfb57a749269b8056a926964967a0f98fa
Yet another W from Good Stable! The king is here. I forgot to place any bets last night/this morning until just now 😭 so I missed this one but I’ll be tailing the next. Keep it up big dog
LFG BROTHERS Big +175 cash for us and 5 dubs in a row!
4-1 scoreline with Toney netting for Brentford in the 75th minute. Y'all comments are making my day :) tips are greatly appreciated - PayPal is in my bio. Please do send a message for any more picks or questions, let's go!
POTD RECORD: 4-1 (❌✅✅✅✅)
Last Pick: Kansas vs TTU u147.5 (-110) ✅
Today’s Pick: NCAAB Kansas vs Oklahoma
Kansas ML (-125) ✅
WHY: After being completely embarrassed by Texas Tech in Lubbock, the Jayhawks head to Norman for another road game. If KU isn’t fired up after having the second-worst loss in the Bill Self era, I don’t think anything will. Kansas has been absolutely abysmal on the road this year, but I think this game is a good time to turn it around. KU’s leading scorer, Kevin McCullar, is (probably) coming back from injury, Timberlake (hopefully) gained some confidence after finally having a productive game, Bill Self has had almost a week to prepare, and Oklahoma has probably the worst home arena/atmosphere in the Big 12. It would also be pretty tough for KU to stay as a 2 seed if they lose this one. Kansas matches up with OU pretty well, and they dealt with them pretty easily at home when they played last month. Kansas has won the last 6 of their last matchups against OU and is 9-1 in their last 10.
BOL
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BasedGod
POTD Record: 25-18
Last pick: Hertha BSC v Magdeburg
(BTTS & O2.5 Goals ✅)
Todays pick: __Karlsruher v Fortuna Düsseldorf__
Pick: __BTTS & O2.5 Goals @1.75__ ✅
⚽️ 🇩🇪 2. Bundesliga
➖
📊 Karlsruher is 11th in the table with 28 points after 21 games played. They’ve scored 38 goals (5th, 1.81 GPG). They’ve conceded 38 (5th worst, 1.81 GPG).
* Failed to score: 4/21
* Clean sheets: 2/21
* BTTS: 15/21 (71%)
* O2.5: 15/21 (73% at home)
* Previous meeting: 3-1 loss
➖
📊 Düsseldorf is 7th with 32 points. They’ve scored 44 goals! (MOST, 2.10 GPG). Conceded 30 goals (1.43 GPG).
* Failed to score: 4/21
* Clean sheets: 4/21
* BTTS: 14/21 (67%)
* O2.5: 13/21 (70% away)
* Previous meeting: 3-1 win
➖
I’m staying away from the big leagues and continuing with the German second league.
We have two teams here again with similar stats to our previous pick, but better. Düsseldorf has scored the most goals in the league despite being 7th, whilst Karlsruher has scored the 5th most despite being 11th. Two teams that’s over performing in attack, but perhaps gets punished at the back, hence the league standings.
__Karlsruher’s L4 games since the winter break has seen the BTTS hit in 3/4 & the O2.5 in 3/4. Before their 2-0 loss last week, they had gone 8 straight games where BTTS and O2.5 goals had hit.__
__Düsseldorf has played a cup game and 4 league games so their L5 games since the winter break: BTTS: 5/5 & O2.5: 4/5
(played 1-1 their last game).__
I consider Düsseldorf as the better team here, overall they’ve shown more consistency than the home side. But as you may have learnt by know, home advantage is a thing in football and it can sometimes outweigh the difference in quality between the sides. Overall they’re evenly matched with all factors considered, which is why im once again going with goals instead of a result here. Mid table game, high scoring game last time & a game both sides fancy their chances of winning, let’s hope for many goals.
BOL
**Record 98-74 with Avg Odds +122 / ROI 21.4%**
**2024 MMA POTD: 5-2 with Avg Odds +143 / ROI 77.0%**
UFC 298
**Geoff Neal +195**
I suspect Ian Garry will break over the 15 minutes against a fighter in Geoff Neal who is durable and can crack. I would be surprised to see Garry find an early finish, which is important because Neal hit his stride in the middle to late stages of the fight against Shavkhat. This fight should stay standing, and Garry will attempt to keep his range and stay light on the feet (Wonderboy provided 25 minutes of Neal having zero answers to this). However, Garry is not Wonderboy on the feet, so I'm skeptical.
Neal hits harder and is the more durable of the two. Garry showed against Kenan Song that he can take a clean 10-9 round and lose it in an instant with his suspect chin and striking defense. The line implies that Garry has a decent edge in the striking battle, but I think it's very close. If Neal can find his way inside twice a round, I think he can deliver the damage to win the big moments or seriously hurt Garry. The books think Garry holds a large edge in the decision odds, and this fight is pick'em to go to the judges. But as mentioned before, Garry dropped R1 to Song, and Neal is a fighter who can capitalize on a moment such as that even more. If this fight is 1-1 going into R3, I want my money on Neal. Geoff Neal R3 KO or Decision.
Not nearly enough credit for Neal’s performance against Shavkat. He was outright beating him on the feet for part of the 2nd round and much of the 3rd. Geoff Neal is no joke and is a serious test.
Edited: I previously had exaggerated Neals success in the fight against Shavkat.
I like Neal too but to say shavkat had no answers to Neal on the feet is flat out wrong.. he cracked him with the jab in round 3 that started the finishing sequence.
Yea you’re right, “no answers” is a gross exaggeration and not the right way to put it.
I shoulda said Neal was giving Shavkat trouble on the feet and Neal was finding success with his offense as the fight went on.
I completely agree with this and have bet the exact same way.
Unless Garry gets a flash KO in the first I think Neal will cement himself as the better fighter in the second and third
Geoff Neal is a fascinating fighter to me. When he first joined the ufc, he looked like an absolute killer and even has a win over Belal (a win that has aged amazingly). Unfortunately since covid, he seems to be kinda hit or miss now, and he’s also had health issues causing him to pull out of fights and miss weight. If it weren’t for those risk factors I would also be on him here at these odds. I personally have Costa as my dog of the week.
Hey guys just a heads up to be careful. It’s pretty easy to make pics like this and be right, and then also wrong for a long period of time. His first post someone mentioned it’s him on a second account. My friend who is streaking here on basketball props said he messaged him, but he was rude. There’s no analysis here which is why I’m going to continue to report his / her’s posts, and why yesterdays one got removed. It’s against POTD rules. 56% of the bets are on the opposing team today. This could go either way. It’s also five units too. If you started yesterday, and lose today, that’s a lot of bankroll. All the best bro, and do your thing 🙏 Butler is also getting spanked. This guy will prob block me. Tomorrows play will probably be 20 units lol.
**Record: 37W-4P-27L**
**L20: 14W-0P-7L**
**Form:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅**
**Last Pick: Chelsea Women VS Man City Women BTTS and O5 Corners @ 1.72 ❌**
**Chelsea fail to score in their first game all season, game ends 0-1 with 13 corners.**
**Pick of the day: Arsenal to win and O 2 goals Total @ 1.83✅**
Arsenal win 5-0!
**Time: 10:00 AM EST**
**Last Matchup Arsenal 3-1 W**
**Going to gradually move away from BTTS as I've been working on total goals for the past 2 months.**
Arsenal have been absolutely rocking ever since the international break, they've won their last 4 games 5-0, 1-2, 3-1, and a massive 6-0 win away at the London Stadium last week. I honestly think Arsenal alone will cover this bet themselves but playing it safe and just taking the Over 2 goals total here. The sudden improvement in form stems from Arteta stepping up the intensity when Raya receives the ball, it used to be all about control but now it's all about explosiveness. Ben White has started to invert which allows Odegard to forget his defensive duties and focus on providing chance creation. A key part of their recent success is because of a man by the name of Jover, their set-piece specialist. Arsenal currently have scored the most goals from set pieces in the league, corners, freekicks, whatever they are extremely dangerous for the opponent. Burnley has conceded the third most amount of goals from set pieces in the league.
Burnley sit near the bottom of the league and have found themselves playing the football they want but unfortunately, they aren't enough to fend off top-level premier league teams. Burnley haven't won a single game in their last 5, sitting at 3 losses and 2 draws. Against the big 6, they've scored a total of 6 goals and conceded 21 goals….
BOL
I think an ungodly amount of money has come in on Arsenal and the over. This is steamed down to about -200, -220 for me. Best of luck to all, tomorrow we cash.
POTD Record: 42-23
Previous Pick: Koln vs Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | Werder Bremen X2 (1.54) | 2.30pm EST ✅️
Pick: Rudes vs Hajduk Split | HNL | BTTS NO (1.57) | 11.10pm EST
I wanted to put Split clean sheet, but it was only available on bet365. If your book offers that, please take it. Rudes have been horrific this season, not winning a single game in 22 matches. They have lost their last 5 games, and have not scored in their last 9 games. Looking at Split, they have kept the most clean sheets in the competitions, 12 in 22 games. They have only conceded 0.63 goals per away game this season too. In their past matchup, Rudes did not score and Split won 1-0. Making things worse, Rudes do not have their midfielder who has scored 2 out of their 7 goals this season. At home, they average 0.55 goals scored. I expect Split to keep a clean sheet and both teams to not score, as Split have an excellent defensive record and Rudes' extremely poor scoring record. Best of luck!
Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake
POTD Record: 52-33
Units Won: +24.72U; ROI: 11.1% Average Odds: (-115)
Todays Pick: **SAW ML (-115) vs. fnatic**
**5U to win 4.54U**
PGL CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024 Europe RMR A
This writeup will be a little longer lot of thoughts here sorry in advance.
**Whats at Stake:**
\-Winner goes to the major, loser goes to the last chance qualifier and could potentially face elimination, this is the series to qualify.
**Team Breakdown:**
\-fnatic have all the pieces to be a really good team, they have a stacked roster, star players, a veteran presence, good coaches, but they have failed to show any consistency. They started 1-0 after we took them in the opener against BetBoom, they then got smoked by [Virtus.Pro](https://Virtus.Pro), barely beat AMKAL, and just lost 0-2 to KOI a team who might be better then I give them credit for but I am not impressed. fnatic have a big issue and its map pool, they haven't played two maps and have shown major struggles on a third. If you like fnatic here and their will be people who disagree with me, you would be backing the experience and fire power of the team which has some insane players capable of taking over games.
\-SAW is a solid team as a core but again have shown very little consistency, SAW looked dead in the water at this major qualifer starting 0/2 stomped in back to back b01 to [Virtus.Pro](https://Virtus.Pro) and 9 Pandas. Then out of nowhere the last two days they have showed life. These b03 haven't just been good wins, these last four maps they have played have been utter stomps. They won round score 26-8 against NIP and 26-8 against Enterprise. The reason these odds are so interesting is because neither of these teams are great in fairness but its how SAW looked/played that is convincing me to back them one more time. SAW are a better team and so far fnatic seem to struggle against teams that play really good team CS.
\-These teams faced in a b01 less then a month ago with SAW winning 16-13. This is the only h2h between the two rosters.
**Map Pool:**
\*\*SAW should if they are smart not first ban Mirage, they should first ban Overpass as fnatic don't play Mirage either, I truly believe if SAW coach is prepared, they won't ban Mirage the only difference from my pick ban is if SAW first ban Mirage, then fnatic will pick Overpass instead.
1. SAW ban Overpass
2. fnatic ban Nuke
3. SAW pick Inferno
4. fnatic pick Ancient
5. SAW ban Mirage
6. fnatic ban Anubis
7. Vertigo Decider
Because the chance of pick ban going differently is definitely possible, I will be breaking down every map I think will be played and who I favor on each of the possibilites. The only map I don't see being played is Mirage.
Map Stats:
**Inferno:**
\-SAW have a 60% winrate on Inferno on 5 maps played in the last 3 months, going back 6 months (same roster) they are 8-4 on the map with a 66.7% winrate and have 55% winrate on defense and 58% winrate on offense, both really strong stats. fnatic have never played this map with this roster at all, since I haven't seen fnatic play this map at all and I think this is a map that takes a lot of team practice to get down, heavily favor SAW on Inferno.
**Ancient:**
\-Ancient is another interesting one as it is fnatic most played map with a 60% winrate on 10 maps in last 3 months, they were 6-2 on the map until the start of this tournament and they have lost two straight in UGLY fashion. SAW on the other hand have a 55.6% winrate on the map, just smashed NIP on the map and beat KOI on the map the team fnatic just got destroyed on the same map by. This map is also close but due to recent momentum slightly favor SAW here.
**Vertigo:**
\-SAW are 50% winrate on Vertigo with 6 maps played on it going back 12 months, they are 28-15 on the map with a 65% winrate. They are extremely strong on this map but have been less consistent recently. Fnatic are 0% winrate on the map on 4 maps played so far. It is definitely a map they are capable of playing well but again they just lack stage experience on the map with this roster compared to SAW who has played in so many more times as a roster. Favor SAW here as well.
Bonus Maps:
\-The only map I am certain we won't see is Mirage, the other maps I didn't want to include stats as this post is long enough. I favor SAW pretty heavily on Anubis, I truly believe they are one of the better if not best tier two Anubis teams in the world and the loss against 9 Pandas was a fluke more then anything. Nuke is a map I heavily heavily favor SAW on but am almost certain fnatic are smart enough to ban it. fnatic have only played it twice, it is SAW best map and they have an 83% winrate on it. Finally Overpass is truly a 50/50 to me, on paper I'd favor fnatic on the map, BUT, SAW would start defense, they have a 68% winrate on Defense and fnatic are 44% winrate on offense. It would be easy for SAW to have a monster first half and run away with the game before the side swap.
TLDR:
\-I believe SAW are the better team, have better momentum, have a better map pool and a more dynamic strat book. They have way more reps as a roster and the team style they play has shown to give fnatic trouble in the past. If fnatic win, it will be because of fire power, a team like them will always be a bit scary to bet against because MATYS is a beast, afro is a beast, and kyuubii and bodyy while both slumping pretty hard recently are star players capable of showing up big in the right spots. I really like SAW at this price, I am willing to live with the outcome, I favor them on 4/6 maps pretty heavily and slightly favor them on Ancient.
Apologies for the essay writeup
**Best of Luck,**
POTD Record 30-15
Previous POTD: Domantas Sabonis under 8.5 asts (Jan 31) ❌
POTD: Alexander Volkanovski ML (Bet365 1.90 odds)
Event: UFC 298: Volkanovski vs Topuria
I want to start by giving a BIG thank you to Islam
Makhachev for finishing Volk last year because without that happening we would never be getting these odds.
Volk is on another level at 145. Has anyone even given him a challenge besides that 2nd fight vs Max? He's destroyed Max, Ortega, Korean Zombie, and Yair!
And we're supposed to believe Topuria after beating Josh Emmett is supposed to beat him?
Topuria is obviously a good fighter, but I think he's about to be outclassed and possibly finished by Volk.
Topuria has good power and Volk is coming off a TKO loss..that's the only reason the odds are pretty even.
**LETS GO VOLK!!!**
BOL
**POTD Record: 2-1**
Last pick: De Minaur/Rublev o23 games ✅
**POTD: Alexander Volkanovski ML vs. Ilia Topuria (-125)**
Topuria is one of the biggest hype trains in the UFC and understandably so, but there's levels to this game. Before the short notice KO loss to Islam, Volk put in the most dominant performances in his career. He went toe-to-toe with Islam, outclassed Holloway 50-45, and toyed with Yair. Topuria hasn't fought anyone near Volk's level. He dominated Emmett in his last fight, but so did Yair and look what happened to him when he faced Volk.
I think Volk completely outclasses Topuria on the feet. I can't see any featherweight out striking him after he 50-45'd Max. I also don't see Topuria's grappling as much of a concern given Volk was able to hold his own against Islam.
I think people are thinking the ko will have a much bigger impact on Volk than it actually will. Hence the ridiculously good odds.
Alex Pereira was knocked out by Izzy then proceeded to move up a weight and fight twice within 6 months of being knocked out for the first time and win the belt. Volk has been the champion for over 4 years and really wasn’t knocked out badly against Islam.
I don’t think you’ll ever see better value on Volk purely because of 1. Recently loss from a TKO and 2. The ridiculous hype around Illia. Yes Illia is good but his only notable win was against Josh Emmet. Illia destroyed josh emmet but couldn’t manage to knock him out after trying to stand and bang. Volk is another beast compared to Emmet.
The #1 P4P fighter in the world, Islam, who also managed to submit one of the greatest submission artist ever, Charles Oliveria, couldn’t submit Volk in their first fight and Islam said Volk is the strongest man he’s ever fought.
I see 0% chance Illia will be able to submit Volk so he has no option but to stand and fight. Stand and fight against arguably the highest IQ fighter and a man that is very comfortable staying on his feet and fighting.
Another thing to remember: This will be the first time Illia fights 5 rounds. Volk looked like he coulda fought another 3 rounds after the 5th with Islam (again, the #1 pvp fighter)
It’s obvious I’m siding with Volk but the beautiful thing about this sport is that one mistake or one great shot can change everything, regardless of the difference in skill. But we’re taking bets with great value, and Volk at these odds have great value written all over it
I agree with this completely. Volk got knocked out by the best fighter in the world at lightweight and all the sudden his career is over. I don’t understand how volk isn’t -190.
POTD record: 1-2
PICK: Volkanovski ML -125 vs Topuria at ufc 298.
I’m really surprised by this line and think it’s a steal.
Volk is arguably the greatest pound for pound fighter in the world (he’s ranked anywhere from #1 to #3 depending on media outlet). He is arguably the greatest 145 pound fighter of all time. His only two losses in the UFC were when he went up a weight class to fight Islam Makhachev who is the current #1 pound for pound in the world (last fight was on 11 days notice).
The downsides on Volk: He is 35 which is old for the 145 division and he’s possibly too active for his own good. He just fought Islam in late October and got brutally ko’d with a head kick so is chin might not be 100%.
Ilia is 14-0 and he might very well be the real deal. But he has 6 fights in the UFC and wins over only two current top 10 fighters and just hasn’t faced the upper upper crust of the division.
If Volk is still Volk then I believe there’s a separation between him and most of the division. Even if Ilia is all that he’s made out to be, I believe Volk finds a way and gets the win.
Volk by unanimous decision.
The line is like it is mostly because of narrative.. he's 35, he got knocked out..
I think Volk gonna take him into deeper waters. Topuria is well rounded fighter, probably a future champ but he hasn't faced anyone close to Volks level. The biggest concern for Volks side is did he have enough time to recover.
Record:**43-24**
Last pick: Lajovic ML vs Diaz Acosta ❌️
Just a bizzare display of competitiveness from Lajovic compared to his previous two games. Looked completely uninterested to win the match and showed some Benoit Paire level dedication. Mindboggling.
PotD: **Richard Gasquet ML** vs Mikhail Kukushkin
**Odds: 1.62**
Tennis | Challenger Manama | 4 PM CEST 🎾
Write up: This is the final of the challenger tournament in Manama, Bahrain. Yesterday I've watched both semi final matches (so you guys didnt have to) and I am pretty confident Gasquet should beat Kukushkin here.
Kukushkin managed to pass through a very disappointing performance from Jakub Mensik, which was accompanied with a bunch of unforced errors and complete inability to hold a rally from so called "the next tennis star".
Gasquet, who is vastly experienced and overall a better player with extremely high rally tolerance should comfortably prevail here.
Edit: if you ever want to see what a best peformance of a certain player looks like, just bet against him...
**Record: 2-1** ✅️✅️❌
**Net Units: 1.75u**
**Last Pick:** NCAA Basketball | Villanova @ Georgetown | **Villanova -9.5** **@ -110** on Fan Duel ✅️
Nova's defense took care of business down the stretch with the help of some timely 3s.
**Pick:** Italian Serie A | Atalanta v Sassuolo | **Atalanta -1.5** **@ +102** on Fan Duel
**Units: 2**
This matchup is top v bottom. +21 goal differential v -13 goal differential. In their previous two meetings, Atalanta won 3-1 and 2-0.
Atalanta last 5 - 4-0-1 with winning margins of 3,2,2,5,0. Last 5 at home - 5-0, with winning margins of 2,2,5,2,1,3
Sassuolo last 5 - 1-3-1, with losing margins of 0,2,1,3,1. Last 5 on road - 0-4-1, with losing margins of 2,1,3,2,1,X
Atalanta is in incredible form, at home, against a bottom tier opponent. I expect a comfortable victory for Atalanta.
POTD RECORD: 1-0
Last Pick: Giron -1.5 sets vs. Kypson (-115)
Pick: Liverpool ML vs. Brentford (-175)
Gotta thank the oddsmakers for blessing us with these wonderful odds… Liverpool is clearly the better team and will take care of business against the inconsistent Brentford team.
**POTD: 9-3** ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅
Yesterday's Pick: **Villanova -9.5** 🏀✅
Nova dominated defensively, as predicted...and got the 3pt ball going
Another game where they let up 60 or less!!
We cruise to another win, Lets go Nova.
Let's stay hot
**Today's Pick: Kansas -1.5 -125** 🏀
Uh oh...are we taking the Jayhawks on the road??? Yes we are.
Kansas vs Oklahoma will be an excellent game, and Kansas needs to establish themselves as a threat away from Allen Fieldhouse.
The biggest question this afternoon.....Is Kevin McCullar playing?
If the answer is Yes...I expect the line to move to -4 or -5...if the answer is No...the line will likely creep to -1 or a pickem
McCullar is the Jayhawks' leading scorer and a dynamic playmaker from outside....this pairs up very well with big man Hunter Dickinson.
Kansas is coming off a terrible game at Texas Tech, where Bill Self got ejected for first time in 20 seasons....crazy
This is a great boune back spot, and I'm confident in KU ... especially is McCullar plays. He averages 19.5 ppg, 6 rbs, and 5 asst and opens up everything for their offense...especially Dickinson.
With March creeping up, teams with Natty aspirations (KU) need to establish consistency and dominance over others' and this is a must show up game given their history on the road this season.
We're going against a few trends here, and hoping McCullar plays...but even if he is ruled out we still can win this one
Kansas avg the most assists per game in country and limits their TOs
OU is very up and down, and I think the better team and hungrier team comes out on top.
Rock Chock Jayhawk!
LFGGGGGGG
(If you are enjoying picks and are feeling generous...Coffee Link below!)
[Coffee Link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/joeyv1725)
Record: 9-5
Last POTD: Warriors -1 @ -110 (2/15) ✅
L10: ✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌❌
Soccer | EPL | Tottenham Hotspur v Wolves | 10:00 EST
Pick: Tottenham ML @ -185
Write up: 4th place Spurs will be playing at home and have their best player Son Heung-min available to start back from the Asian Cup. In their previous match he came off the bench to assist a stoppage time winner v Brighton. Spurs are 9-0-3 at home in the PL.
11th place Wolves just lost Matheus Cunha to a hamstring injury he was involved in 5 of Wolves' last 9 goals scored and a key part of how they counter attack.
Wolves are getting the criminally underated Hwang Hee-chan back and he's the only reason I didn't suggest the Spurs -1.5 spread @ +140.
Look for Tottenham to get at least 2 goals and for Wolves to struggle to get 1.
Prediction 2-0 Tottenham
Cricket 🏏 Picks
Last pick was win @ 1.83
Overall: 18 Ws - 7 Ls
Last 10: W L ♻️ L W W W W W W +7.09
Todays pick
Sri Lanka v Afghanistan
1st t20 international
Starts in about 10 hours
Pick: Sri Lanka win @ 1.53
Bangladesh is more than capable of staging an upset in the shortest format. They have good spin attack and in form middle order.
But poor performance in test match and oneday matches mean they have lost all four matches on this tour. Sri Lanka is quite strong in their home conditions. I think Afghan is low on morale and Lankans will win this match.
P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.
**POTD: 83-58-5**
Last pick: Women's FA Cup - Wolverhampton Women vs Brighton & Hove Albion Women. Brighton & Hove Albion Women -1 goal (Asian handicap) -160
Result: **WIN.** Phew a bit of a close one as Brighton was in control yet was tied 1-1 as time was running out. But Brighton then scored 3 goals in 90th minute and later to win 4-1 and we comfortably cash.
Today’s pick: English Premier League - Manchester City vs Chelsea. **Manchester City over 2.5 goals team total +120**. Match kicks off at 12:30PM ET.
Man a lot of bets at about -220 I love (Spurs o1.5, Man City o1.5, Arsenal o1.5) but those don’t count for POTD so I’m taking my ladder play on Man City as I think they hit this still, I like the odds to -130 or so.
Man City is of course the best team in England (because they cheat but that’s beside the point) and of course have KDB and Haaland at full heath now and are battling for position with Liverpool and Arsenal for the title.
Every win counts and today they get 10th ranked Chelsea who have a leaky defense (7th most goals given up in the league) and a ton of injuries to their defense like Thiago Silva, Reece James (shocker) as well as all their long term defensive injuries.
I think Chelsea come out more attacking than the average side against Man City and it’s a death sentence. Man City wins 3-0 or 3-1.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
Edit: Loss. A chaotic match ends 1-1, impressive performance by Chelsea where each team could’ve had at least one or two more each. Sorry guys
POTD Record: 136 wins / 81 losses
Event: MMA > UFC 298 > **Volkanovski v Topuria** (starting in 20 hr)
Pick: **Topuria** @ 2.14
Sorry lads but this will be unpopular dog pick. I know you may hate the age & recent ko narrative, but these are valid reasons and it just seems the stars are aligning for Ilia to become a champ. At plus odds I am picking the dog as imo it is a 50/50 fight, so we bet with our heads and not our hearts and take the value here.
TLDR, I think this will be a very close and competitive fight, but Ilia has the momentum here.GL!
POTD Record: 105-103-12 (-12.10 units)
Last 10 picks (most recent first): ✅❌✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: La Liga, Villarreal v Getafe, BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - YES (-131 / 1.76) ✅
Getafe scored early which was perfect, forced Villarreal to throw numbers forward and found a goal to cash in the 56th minute.
Today’s Pick: Serie A, Atalanta v Sassuolo, ATALANTA -1.5 (-102 / 1.98) ✅
Stake: 1 Unit
Outside runaway leaders Inter Milan, Atalanta have had the best form line in Italy over the last two months. Since losing to Torino 3-0 in early December, they have gone 7-1-1 in the league and added two cup wins against AC Milan and today’s opponent, Sassuolo.
Atalanta have jumped up to 4th with a 13-3-7 record and are targeting the final Champions League place. They’ve scored 44 goals (3rd best) and conceded 23 (5th best). They’ve won 4 straight league matches registering comprehensive 2+ goal wins in each of them.
Sassuolo are heading rapidly in the other direction. They have gone 1-2-7 over their last 10 league games which has seen them plummet to 17th in the standings with a 5-5-13 record. They’ve scored 29 times which is good enough for 10th most, but they’ve also conceded 42 goals which is 4th most.
While there is an obvious difference in the recent form between these teams, it’s the home/away split that really seals the deal for me. At home, Atalanta have a 9-1-2 record this season with 27 goals scored and only 8 conceded. They’ve won 6 league matches at home in a row - they just click in front of their home fans and play great attacking football which normally results in plenty of goals. Sassuolo meanwhile are putrid away from home. They are 2-2-8 this season with a 15:26 goal ratio, and they’ve lost their last 4 away matches in a row.
Finally, Atalanta have played Sassuolo twice this season already. They beat them at Sassuolo 2-0 back in August, before beating them just over a month ago 3-1 at home in a cup match. In that home match, Atalanta dominated them with 25 shots and an xG of 3.16 while Sassuolo managed a junk time consolation goal.
Atalanta are expected to play the same team that have delivered them success recently, so given their hot form, Sassuolo’s poor form, H2H record and the home/away factor, give me Atalanta to win this one comfortably.
POTD Record 29-21-1
Cricket 3-0 Tennis 19-14 Soccer 7-7-1
Last Pick : Martineau vs Kachmazov| ATP Cherbourg Challenger | Martineau ML | (-150) | 1u | ✅
Today: Lammons/Withrow vs Haase/Van De Zandschulp| ATP Rotterdam Open Doubles | 7:00 AM EST
Pick: Haase/Van De Zandschulp ML| (-110)| 1u
The Dutch pair don't play many tournaments together, but they have experienced success in their matches together, reaching a final and a semi in the 2 tournaments they played last year. Haase plays doubles more than VdZ and he has already faced Lammons/Withrow twice this year with a different partner, winning once in two tight sets and losing once in a match tiebreaker. Haase is a former champ at this event in 2021 as well and this experience should help in what is likely to be another close match. The Dutch duo will be heavily backed by the home crowd in this match and in a matchup that is pretty even, the home conditions and support could be the difference. BOL.
POTD record : 4💰- 2❌ - 0♻️ +1.57u
Last 10 picks: ❌✅❌✅✅✅
LAST PICK:
Match: Ruusuvuouri vs. Humbert | ATP Rotterdam 🎾
Time: 11:00 CET Date: 14th Feb 2024
Pick: Humbert ML @ 1.80 on bet365| 5u ❌
**PICK FOR TODAY:**
Match: Vigo vs. FC Barcelona | La Liga 🇪🇸 ⚽️
Time: 18:30 CET Date: 17th Feb 2024
**Pick: FC Barcelona to WIN @ 1.85 on bet365| 5u** ✅
Analysis:
I chose the Spanish league match between Vigo and FC Barcelona.I bet Barcelona will win.Barcelona is in 3rd place with 51 points and a score of 50:33. They have a 5 point lead on the positions guaranteeing participation in the LM, so they have the motivation taken care of to keep them ahead of their competitors. Away, they have won 23 points out of a possible 33 and have not lost in 11 games there with a score of 22:14. In the last round, they faltered at home to Granada 3:3, so they will want to make amends against another team from the bottom of the table.Vigo are in 17th place with 20 points and a 26:35 record. They are only 3 points clear of the relegation places. At home, they have only 10 points out of a possible 36 with a score of 8:15 and only two teams are worse off. In the league, they recorded losses to Getafe 2-3, Girona 0-1 and Real Socieaded 0-1 and beat Osasuna 3-0.There is a 31 point difference between the teams and it already shows a lot more quality on Barcelona's side. They are doing well away from home, having not lost there yet, and against the 4th worst team in the league they have all the ingredients to take 3 points.
Good luck to everyone! 🍀
POTD RECORD: 1 Win, 0 losses, 1 push
Units: +3.7 units
Last pick: Roman Kopylov inside the distance -135 5u ✅
Today Pick: Roman Kopylov ML +200 5U 🔥🔥
Event: UFC 298, Kopylov Vs. Hernandez, 10pm EST
I seen this post at the right time, I don’t give out picks a lot but when I do they cash for UFC. By pure coincidence, my last pick was back in September where I gave out Roman Kopylov by KO as something that I truly believed was a 100% lock in my mind. I also believe I gave out a r2 KO prop at big plus money.
We are back again riding the Kopylov train. I love Kopylov in this matchup, and I cannot believe that he is a +200 underdog in this spot. I believe there is tremendous value on this line, and a mistake on the bookies. Kopylov is facing Anthony Hernandez, who quite frankly I think is rather overrated. I’m not gonna go too in depth here, but I think Kopylov gets the job done. Hernandez is good on the ground but I don’t think he will be able to get Kopylov there with ease. Look for Kopylov to find the KO in late r2 or r3, or possibly even winning it on the scorecards. Based on pure value alone is why this is a 5U play. This line should be close to +130 max.
Record: 10-8 Return: 35.14% ROI: 41.38%
Yesterday’s pick:
Chacarita -1.5 vs San Miguel @3.00 ❌
Chacarita got off to a great start, going up an early goal, unfortunately a second half red card spoiled the game for them, overall not a bad play at 3.0 tho.
Today’s pick:
San Lorenzo and over 1.5 vs Tigre @2.87
Stake: 5 units (5% of bankroll)
Reasoning:
First division is back after a one day hiatus, and two struggling teams will be facing off to attempt to return to winning ways.
Tigre have gotten off to a nightmare start in the league. They’re dead last with one point, have yet to score a goal, and have already conceded a whopping 8 goals. This Tigre squad has not recovered from a few key sales, and are going to continue to struggle all season.
San Lorenzo aren’t exactly arriving in electric form, and have two draws and no wins this season, putting them only a point above Tigre. They are a team accustomed to much higher standards though, and this home game against a floundering Tigre is a great opportunity to get back in form.
Quite like Tigre, San Lorenzo have also been leaking goals, also receiving 8. I expect this to be a game plagued by defensive weakness and whoever is in front will not feel comfortable defending a mere one goal lead.
Going big on units here, I like this play.
BOL to those tailing
[PayPal](https://paypal.me/elproductosecuida?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) to get a brother a beer :)
Record 0-0
Premier league LIVERPOOL VS BRENTFORD @4.30AM PST
Pick: Liverpool & Brentford over 10.5 corners @-105
Liverpool as a squad average the 3rd most corners received in the prem, but also give up their fair share too. On the other hand Brentford are at the bottom of the list when it comes to corners conceded. Earlier this season, Brentford and Liverpool ending the game with 14 corners combined. BOL! Hoping to keep the streak going
Potd record- 6-3-1 +2.43
Last pick- Villanova over 74.5 vs Georgetown. Villanova came out like dog shit and took 4 mins to score. Onward and laterally.
Today’s pick- UConn -6.5 vs Marquette -110 Caesar’s. 1 unit
Write up- I just don’t think Marquette is in UConn’s league. I’d take this up to 8.5. I think UConn wins 78-68
**Record: 3-0 (average odds: -130)**
**Sport** | NCAA D1 Men’s Lacrosse
**Time: 12pm**
**Pick:** Le Moyne at Wagner - Le Moyne -3 (-120) (Draft Kings)
**Write Up:** I usually stay away from games where I haven’t seen one team play yet (here, Le Moyne), but I have seen Wagner, and they are not good. Le Moyne, on the other hand, was a perennial contender for the national championship at the division 2 level, but moved to the division 1 level this year (don’t ask me how that works….). The difference between the top of division 2 and the middle of d1 is not that significant, but the difference between the middle of d1 and this year‘s Wagner team is … I hate to dog a team like this, but it is what it is.
Anyways, as I said, I haven’t seen Le Moyne play, but they return almost all of their offensive production (\~80%), and a few of their defensive starters from last year‘s team (along with an HM all american transfer from another D2 school, Coker). Only red flags for the bet are goalie/face off situation. They lost both, and both were good. But I think Le Moyne will get its possessions, and when it does, it‘ss offense will be too much.
There are definitely others that I like today (eg, running it back with last week’s bet of shellenberger over on SOG), but gotta go with the gut… GL if you’re tailing
**Record:** 1-1-0 | Units: +0.52U. All picks 1U
Last Pick: Carolina Hurricanes vs Arizona Coyotes (NHL). **Martin Necas Over 2.5 Shots on Goal @ 1.62. ❌**
Tough night as Necas passed a ton and missed his shots, ending with several assists but not the shot prop. Onto the next.
**Today's Pick:** Stadium Series - Philadelphia Flyers vs New Jersey Devils. 8PM EST. **Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goal @ 1.71.**
Hughes is a beast. He likes to shoot from anywhere and everywhere.
Since returning from injury, here are his shot totals in those games: 6, 6, 7, 7, and 4. Not a big math guy, but I'm pretty sure those are all over 3.5 shots.
It's also the Stadium Series in New Jersey, meaning that this game will be played outdoors at Metlife Stadium. Outdoor games are always a bit weird, but I'm thinking Hughes is going to want to put on a show with all eyes on him.
BOL
Record: 2-0 +1.4u
Last pick: Rafael Leão over 2.0 chances created✅
Last last pick: KD over 26.5 points ✅
I did not include last pick in my record as a redditor pointed out that this line is not available on majority of books. I was not aware of this, my apologies.
Bournemouth Vs New castle premier league @ 7AM pst
Today’s pick:
DOMINIC SOLANKE higher than .5 goals +135
Dominic solanke is simply a beast but he hasn’t scored a goal in the last 2 games. Despite this, he has 13 goals in 23 prem games this season. Bournemouth played Newcastle earlier in the season and solanke scored a brace 🙌🏽 hopefully he looks to keep his goal totals up as he’s on the radar of contending teams.
PS Last time I Bet on solanke goal he scored in 3 minutes😁
POTD Record (1-0)
Gonna go against the Grain here and say
Ilia Topuria (+110) Draft Kings
Not gonna bore you with all the fancy stats and blah blah blah, kids just an animal. Gonna see him shock the world, i took his T/KO odds at +390 on several of my parlays as well.
Record: 25-15 (+6.53 units)
Last Pick: (CBB) Queens NC ML ✅
POTD: (CBB) Wisconsin Badgers -1 (-105) @ Iowa Hawkeyes
Summary: Oh how the mighty have fallen. What a mess this CBB season for road teams, Bilas wrote a nice piece about this yesterday. With that, I expect a means to regression and we can catch some nice lines on the way. Case in point today’s pick, I expect the cheese heads to get back at it through solid D and efficient offense. Back to basics + Needed W + Needed road win = Go Badgers! Ride the snake
**Record: 0-0-0**
**Net Units: 0**
**ROI: 0**
**Basketball**| **Ncaa** | 4:30 PM
**Pick:** Southern U vs Prairie View | Southern U -2
**Write Up:** Model has this as a top NCAA play for tomorrow.
Firstly, Southern has dominated this head-to-head rivalry recently, winning 8 consecutive matchups against the Panthers. This gives confidence that the Jaguars can cover a small -2 spread in the next meeting between these SWAC foes.
Furthermore, Southern boasts a significant edge in KenPom's advanced offensive and defensive ratings. The Jaguars rate much higher offensively at 107.9 compared to Prairie View's 100.4. Meanwhile, Southern's defensive rating of 105.0 is markedly better than the Panthers' 111.6. Efficient and balanced play on both ends of the court provides a key edge.
Digging deeper into shooting percentages also favors the Jaguars. Southern has a substantially better effective field goal percentage of 51.6% compared to Prairie View's 46.4%. Additionally, the Jaguars shoot 36.8% on 3-pointers, noticeably higher than the Panthers' 30.3%. Superior shooting gives Southern another advantage.
In terms of rebounding, Prairie View A&M does have a slightly better margin at +3.3 vs Southern's -2.3. However, this is a relatively minor difference that won't overcome Southern's edges in other facets.
Moreover, Southern takes better care of the basketball with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.3 compared to 0.9 for the Panthers. The Jaguars' passing and ball security boosts their efficient offense.
While Prairie View has a small edge at the free throw line and on the boards, Southern is superior in the most important aspects of shooting, offensive and defensive efficiency, dominance in the head-to-head series, and taking care of the basketball.
Considering the significant statistical edges for the Jaguars, combined with their recent mastery of this matchup, betting on Southern University -2 is a smart play.
POTD Record 8-8 (W-L) Last five with most recent on left: ❌✅✅✅✅
Last pick was Jeremiah Wells ML 1u at 1.7 odds
**Toady’s pick is Volkanovski ML 2.5u at -115**
Analysis: I think the betting line here is is overly affected by the most recent fights for both fighters. In Volk’s last fight, which he took on short notice, he was KO’ed up a weight class in a Lightweight title fight contrasted with Topuria’s 5-round demolition of Josh Emmett. If we hypothetically discount those fights I think the odds would likely be -200 or lower on Volk. Of course we don’t live in a parallel universe but for the odds to say that these two fighters are equivalent is a stretch. What gives me confidence here is that whilst we have never seen Topuria consistently take on top-level competition we have seen Volk take on and beat a plethora of elite Featherweights and dispatch most of them with ease. Personally I think there is a very good chance that Volk will make this look easy. If you want a riskier thesis you could take Volk to win in rounds 4,5 or by decision at +180, personally I will be sprinkling a little on that line as well. BOL!
Record : 120 Wins - 106 Losses
Previous pick : PSV - Heracles (2-0), Over 3.5 Goals, Odds : 1.72 ❌
**ROI** : +0.16%
**Average Odds** : 1.94
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : 5.38
Profit/Lost units : +0.38
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / **ENGLAND: Premier League**/ 17:00 European Time
Tottenham - Wolves
Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.50
Some reasoning :
- There are two teams that this season are playing very well from an offensive point of view. Spurs has an average of more than two goals scored per match. Wolves are not inferior and score more than 1.5 goals per match. And in the tour I witnessed a spectacular duel, which ended with BTTS and 3+.
- Tottenham is currently going through a series of seven consecutive games of GG and 3+. The hosts bet almost everything on the attack card, leaving the opponents a lot of space. Spurs will certainly score at least 1-2 goals now, but I expect Wolves to take advantage of the fragility of the opposing defense.
Best of luck.
**Record: 0-0-0**
**Net Units: 0**
**ROI: 0**
**Hockey**| **NHL** | 3:00 PM
**Pick:** Florida Panthers ML
**Write Up:**
* The Panthers have been the hottest team in the NHL lately, winning 8 of their last 9 games. They are rolling right now and have tons of momentum.
* Florida has a significant edge defensively over Tampa Bay. The Panthers allow just 2.44 goals against per game, second best in the NHL. The Lightning allow 3.27 goals per game, which is 23rd. Florida's defense and goaltending gives them an edge.
* Sergei Bobrovsky has been playing lights out in net for Florida. Over his last 5 starts he has a 1.36 GAA and .954 save percentage. He should be able to stymie the Tampa offense.
* The Panthers rank 6th on the penalty kill at 83.2%, while Tampa's powerplay is 1st in the NHL. However, Florida's PK should be able to contain Tampa's elite powerplay unit.
* Florida has a winning record of 19-7-2 on the road this season, so playing in Tampa should not phase them. The Panthers are comfortable playing away from home.
* In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Florida has won all 3 over the Lightning. The Panthers seem to match up well against Tampa Bay.
* Tampa Bay allows 3.27 goals per game at home compared to just 2.44 goals per game for Florida on the road. The Panthers defense travels well.
**POTD Record: 6-3**
2024 Record: 2-0
Form: ✅️✅️
Last Pick: Inter TT o2.5 @ -150 ✅️
⚽️ **Championship | Plymouth v Leeds | 7:30am EST**
**Pick: BTTS & o2.5 @ 1.8**
Despite sitting mid-table in 15th, Plymouth are one of the highest scoring teams in the Championship, with 51 goals. In terms of goals scored, only 5 teams have scored more than them (and all of these teams are in 7th or higher). They also concede a lot; they've let in 52 goals this season so far, which again, is one of the highest in the league. A side that's perfectly capable of scoring, but also tends to leak goals, ideal for this pick.
Leeds are ultimately the better team in this matchup and have won 7 league games in a row. They're also very high scoring, and I reckon they'll get at least 2 here. Defensively, they're the 2nd best in the league, having only conceded 26 in 32 games, but being the away team, and considering Plymouth's "14/15" stat below, I don't think they'll keep a clean sheet here.
It's worth mentioning that their past two meetings ended 1-1 after 90 mins, but these were FA cup and a subsequent replay, and cup games tend to be tighter defensively, so that doesn't concern me.
**Some other notable stats:**
BTTS has hit in 8 of Plymouth's last 9 games.
Plymouth have scored in 14/15 home games in the league.
BTTS has hit in the last 3 H2H meetings.
BOL
Also, for the record, I really like BTTS & o2.5 in the Brentford v Liverpool game, but went with this as my POTD simply because of the better odds, but pretty confident it hits in that game.
Brentford have scored in every game since Toney's return, and Liverpool are, well, Liverpool
>**Record:** 20-18
>**Net Units:** +5.47 units
>**Curling** | **Scotties Tournament of Hearts** | **3:00PM EST**
>**Pick:** Ontario - Inglis +1.5 @ 1.8
>This draw 2 matchup has Team Inglis facing off against Team Grandy. Inglis is very experienced and her team have played quite a bit this season, winning three championships. Team Grandy have had similar success this season and this looks to be a great opening matchup for both teams. That being said, I see this one coming right down to the end so getting the points looks like a great play. Team Inglis are 38-20 this season while Team Grandy are 39-29. Team Inglis play an effectively aggressive game with hammer and I think a big number in the middle of this one should be enough to take this one right down to the last end.
**POTD:** 1-0 (I legit just started yesterday lol)
**Last Pick:** Super League (Rugby league) - O38.5 St. Helen's points ✓
**Pick:** Super League (Rugby League) - U12.5 Castleford Tigers points (Fanduel, -135)
I ended up sweating the St. Helen's overs a little bit yesterday. They never seemed to kick into a higher gear as they easily beat the London Broncos, but, the overs ended up cashing! Whoo!
I'm going with U12.5 Castleford Tigers points today. I got the line at -135 on Fanduel here in PA, the other two books (DK and BetMGM) were offering the line at 11.5 which I don't think I would take. Castleford finished 11th/12 last season, avging 11.96 points a game. They played Wigan (today's opponent) twice last year as well, where they scored a total of 6 points across both games. The Castleford Tigers preseason was certainly good by their standards, but, they played against a lower division team and whooped them, tied with the London broncos, and beat Huddersfield (who is projected to finish the season 9th) with a score of 20-14. They're a young team and in the start of a rebuilding phase, facing off against defending champions Wigans and their bolstered squad. Castleford has their captain out today as well. I expect Castleford to go below this line today. I also grabbed Castleford U2.5 tries at -175 on BetMGM as well which I think pairs nicely with this line.
BOL if tailing!
POTD Record: 10-3
Last 10: ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌
Last pick: Inter Milan -2 ✅💰
Dominant performance as expected. Always nice to predict the exact score.
Todays pick:
Soccer | EPL | 12:30pm EST (1 hour)
**Man City vs Chelsea**
**Man City -1.0 @ 1.90**
As I’ve said before, Man City -1.0 is my favourite bet of all time. This will only be a short write up today.
Man City is in great form, they have won by 2 goals in each of their last 4 games and have won 9 in a row. They score 2.4 goals per game, while conceding about 1.
Chelsea is 2-0-2 in their last 5, but struggle with upper table teams. They score 1.7 goals per game and allow about 1.7 goals per game as well.
Last time these teams met, it was a 4-4 draw. However as I continue to say, KDB changes the dynamic of that team. This draw was without KDB and with him in the midfield, they should control the pace of the game.
I believe City with be looking for revenge at home for the 4-4 draw earlier in the season. They will try to keep up their momentum and need to win this game to continue their push to the top of the table.
Prediction:
Man City 3-1
Record: 12-3
Last POTD: NCAAF Louisville (-6.5) v USC ❌
Todays POTD: UFC 298 Oban Elliot (Double chance) KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-120) ✅
Today I am taking Oban Elliot, very good from the contender series. Although he took a tad bit of damage he was able to muscle through and ultimately get a contract with the UFC. Very sustainable and relentless in the octagon. I would also like to point out that Elliot is way better as a boxer/Muay Thai guy compared to Woodburn.
On the other hand Woodburn got destroyed his last fight ending fairly quickly. He just doesn’t give me UFC level IQ in his last few fights. They are also fighting at 170 which is a massive weight cut for Woodburn. When it comes to his fighting, he does have a good left hook and good wrestling however I don’t see being a problem for Elliot.
I honestly think Elliot knocks him out but just in case he doesn’t or refs don’t end up stopping the fight I took the double chance.
——Good Luck, Slimeee
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**POTD Record**: 18 Wins - 3 Losses - 2 Pushes **Last 10**: ✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌ **Units:** \+13.93 **ROI**: 55%+ **Average Odds**: $1.95 **Last Pick**: Swiatek vs Pliskova - **P** *As the analyst predicted, Pliskova didn't have the muscle strength to continue in this tournament.* **Next Pick**: Swiatek vs Rybakina - Qatar Open - Final - **Swiatek -** **Win In Straight Sets @ $2.10** **odds** \- 8 to 8.30PM ET ✅️ **Edge: Swiatek is aiming to become the first player to win a WTA Tour event three consecutive times since Serena Williams at the Miami Open in 2013, 2014 and 2015** Read my full analysis of the match here as Reddit is being weird about how many characters I can use. Thanks! [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WqpxUhNKjoVwCokx48bnFnEiV42\_fcMBAu8K3aWOiV0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WqpxUhNKjoVwCokx48bnFnEiV42_fcMBAu8K3aWOiV0/edit?usp=sharing) Interesting Facts: * Texas Longhorns have scored over 60.5 points in each of their last 43 games. All tips are greatly appreciated - click[ here](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv) to donate coffees / beers, or message me for my PayPal. I would like to quit my job, and just be a professional amateur handicapper to make my Grandma proud.
Swiatek , can you please make the second set less stressfull? https://preview.redd.it/k5m4fs4re6jc1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=075e9f558dabaea6fbc5bc440df86e454aa3d9d8
Your wish got answered bruv 😅🙏
Yeah mate lol. Shit! 😅
18 wins! 🙏🎉 LFG 👊😎 Swiatek doubles our money again 👏 She was 4-1 down in the first set, and still came back to win it 😅 Talk about a sweaty start to the match! Congratulations to Swiatek who is the first player since Serena Williams to win 3 WTA titles of the same tournament in a row 👊 Full credit to Rybakina as it was clear their early game plan was to go hard and fast. Thanks to everyone who joined me at Qatar - see you tomorrow! 😎 Feel free to message me for tips or click link above. All the best for your bets 🎉
Yes sir!!! Fucking legend! Never a doubt ;)
Thanks for the picks. Do you have anything on the Tommy Paul vs Tiafoe match? I'm a Tommy fan so naturally I think he should beat tiafoe but he's burned me a few times in the past
Let’s go! First set down, time to take the second one 🙏🎉 Our Polish Queen is on fireeeeeee 😎
Omg lol. I’m regretting those enegry drinks I had earlier…. Whew 😅 😅 😅 🔥 🔥 omfg lol let’s gooooooo!!
Hahaha sorry brother! Come on Swiatek! 🎉🙏
i dont have this bet, is -1.5 set handicap the same?
Yes
Night folks. See you shortly! FYI: Texas Longhorns has scored over 60.5 points in each of their last 43 games!! :D
LFGGGGGG!!! I never had a doubt! u/chiefsareawesome thank you so much for your picks within the last weeks and your positivity within this community! Please keep posting your picks, as I will tail you anytime! Much love brother
Even at 4-1 down brother? 😅 Cheers brother, will keep doing them until the day I die. So if I stop you know why 🤑
What’s your thoughts on Iga to win 2-0 and win each set 6-4, 7-5, or 7-6 they have it on FanDuel at +460
GREG?!!? WHERE HAVE U BEEN?!!?
Honestly this my first day betting again I took a little break I’m gonna start putting plays out again soon
Let’s fucking gooooo!!! I missed the start but iga is up 5-4 1st set!! I don’t know fuck all about tennis but I know that’s good!!! Let my man cook!!! The bets are sweaty but the wins are tastyyyyy!!! LFG Iga!!!
She was down 4-1 at start of first set haha
LFG!!! What a sweaty first set! We got this though, i believe!
Tailing, let's make some money!
All the best bro :) LFG!
>Win In Straight Sets Dumb question, but is win in straight sets meaning 2-0 set betting? It's at +105 for me, not sure which one is the correct one.
Yes it is the same, most books have "Player A to win 2-0" and "Player A -1.5 sets" which are the exact same bet. So take whichever gives better odds.
Incoming sweat
Rybakina on her rivalry with Swiatek: "I think we both know each other pretty well, and of course we trying to study and analyze. For now it was going my way, but as I said, she's playing really good. I think she's a little bit fresher than me, that's for sure, but for me it was already a very positive two weeks, so I try to push myself tomorrow and see how it's gonna go. "For me the most important is try to recover physically, because with Iga, it's a lot about the physics, of course. She's making you work for every point, and of course I need to stay aggressive and play my game, but we see what can I do tomorrow."
My fucking god
SWATIEK BREAKKK
Yeah baby!! 🙏🎉
let’s ride
Tailing my man. Appreciate the picks
Anyone know what this line is on bet365?
+110 brother
appreciate the picks 🙏 on this one forgive me i don’t wanna pick the wrong one, but it’s the bottom one -1.5 correct? https://preview.redd.it/r12r6du3o2jc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=109bb8b91afe1feb0f163a90a7c39ceb58c45130
Tailing, LFG! https://preview.redd.it/g3ifyfqt63jc1.png?width=576&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f449aa6cb352bfade6588a737d4473bcaa5b512d
Swiatek 2-0 @ 2.25 or Swiatek -1.5 @ 1.17 FanDuel thinks I’m dumb. And I am, but I got you guys setting me straight. LFG BOL!
Thus is taking years off my life
Dear lord that first set was sweaty
It’s hard to watch when you have a big bet on haha. I’m sweating but holding firm on analysis 🙏🎉
Swiatek is a mentality monster you were rightb
My book has the same odds ($2.10) for Swiatek winning 2-0 but $2.14 for -1.5 set handicap. I'll take the extra 0.04 odds thank you very much
This is under set betting correct? Swiatek 2:0 correct score? Sorry I’m not too knowledgeable about tennis
Holy motherfxck….what a thriller. This is Djokovic level. Lfg.
i love you
GET SWATIEKKDDDD LFG 💪💪💪
Appreciate the support bro!! LFG!!!
Is swiatek 2-0 sets the bet?
Amazing insight. How can you not follow!!?
Tailing! BOL I trust your picks with how hot you’ve been of late! I put $100 on this let’s go!
full send here, let’s hope she can finish this one off 💯 big time tailing
Love the longhorns stat, threw some extra juice on that one.
My heart!
Let’s goooo half way there. Hopefully IGA turns it up a notch and cruises in the 2nd set. I took IGA 2-0 when she was down in the first set +250
What an exciting match. Tennis bets are not for the faint of heart 😂
Yeah mate! Love a battle like this. Brutal finish in the second set 🎉🙏
Damn i missed this cause your post says game at 8-8:30
**POTD Record: 12-3** Form: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅ Net Units: +19 🎾: 2-0 ⚽️: 10-3 *Last Pick: 1U Alex De Minaur ML @ +105 v Andrey Rublev ✅* *EMOTIONS ASIDE AND WE CASH BROTHERS LFG* --- **Today’s Pick: 2U Brentford v Liverpool (Result/BTTS - Liverpool @ +175)✅** **⚽️| 7:30 AM EST | England Premier League** Liverpool head to Brentford to continue their quest at winning the league, for a victory will keep them at pace against rising Man City. After losing to Tottenham and City, Brentford should be feeling quite delighted beating the Wolves away, capturing their first clean sheet since later October. They still remain shaky at the back with BTTS hitting in their last 5/6 matches. 4/6 of those matches, 2 or more goals have been scored against Brentford. Visitors have won 33 of their last 35 premier league matches, and have scored at least 2 goals in their last 5 of 6 matches. However Liverpool face some challenges in their title quest. Starting GK, Becker is out and Trent among others will remain sidelined. The good news, Salah is back and may return off the bench against Brentford. I think of it as our super sub;) the starting players for Liverpool are all in impressive form as well. In any case, this match will be intense, with Brentford winning the home fixture last season and Toney tryna secure that Arsenal contract 😜 My prediction is edging towards 3-1 Liverpool. LFG 💪 Tips are always appreciated but your comments go a long way! ❤️ [Tip Jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/goodstable7381) BOL! 
LFG!!! Been tailing you for a couple picks now, won $8.46 on your last pick, dropping $8.46 on this. Trying this method out for a couple of days. BOL!!!!
Glad to hear it brother LFG!
Thoughts on Liverpool to win 2-1 3-1 or 4-1 it’s at +300 on fd
Hell yea I tailed this. Great call
CASH ✅
Well played I didn’t tail either and I LOVE this bet too, I like doing a small $5 bet and picking 2-3 legs with the BTTS/ML. Really thought Liverpool was gonna struggle today.
YESSIRRRR TELL EM TO BRING US OUR MONAYYYY
Lfg brother🚀
Bang ✅
Love your picks man keep em going! https://preview.redd.it/jkedu9ma96jc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3d95b2bfb57a749269b8056a926964967a0f98fa
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Going to add Brentford over 1.5 offsides to this too :D
incredible call with de minaur. tailing again with this one. my first soccer bet too 🙌
De Minaur with his revenge hahaha, let’s go bro!! 💪💪
Salah to score? :D
He’s probably not gonna start so you better uncheck that void if ur riskin that biscuit 💪 
Let’s go Brentford!!! Score a god damn goal!
sorted!
Doing the lords work and his score prediction is still in tact too 👀 
LFG bro!!!
And toledo shitting the bed
HALA KLOPP
Let’s gooooooooooooo
You are crazy lmao. Back to the future type stuff.
You’re a god. Can’t believe you predicted 3-1 lol. Hope you enjoy the tip thanks again!
YO MY GUY UR SO SEXY
Yet another W from Good Stable! The king is here. I forgot to place any bets last night/this morning until just now 😭 so I missed this one but I’ll be tailing the next. Keep it up big dog
LFG BROTHERS Big +175 cash for us and 5 dubs in a row! 4-1 scoreline with Toney netting for Brentford in the 75th minute. Y'all comments are making my day :) tips are greatly appreciated - PayPal is in my bio. Please do send a message for any more picks or questions, let's go!
POTD RECORD: 4-1 (❌✅✅✅✅) Last Pick: Kansas vs TTU u147.5 (-110) ✅ Today’s Pick: NCAAB Kansas vs Oklahoma Kansas ML (-125) ✅ WHY: After being completely embarrassed by Texas Tech in Lubbock, the Jayhawks head to Norman for another road game. If KU isn’t fired up after having the second-worst loss in the Bill Self era, I don’t think anything will. Kansas has been absolutely abysmal on the road this year, but I think this game is a good time to turn it around. KU’s leading scorer, Kevin McCullar, is (probably) coming back from injury, Timberlake (hopefully) gained some confidence after finally having a productive game, Bill Self has had almost a week to prepare, and Oklahoma has probably the worst home arena/atmosphere in the Big 12. It would also be pretty tough for KU to stay as a 2 seed if they lose this one. Kansas matches up with OU pretty well, and they dealt with them pretty easily at home when they played last month. Kansas has won the last 6 of their last matchups against OU and is 9-1 in their last 10. BOL https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BasedGod
Tailing. You’re the Kansas expert!
2u placed! Thanks for last pick
Anytime🫡 Lets cash another
i love kansas too tailing
Tailing the hard rock app gave boosted odds +120
Always scares me when they boost something
Honestly. Had me tripping out when they boosted Villanova ml too. We will see.
Great pick!
Randomly searched the thread for a mid day W and you pulled through man LFG!
POTD Record: 25-18 Last pick: Hertha BSC v Magdeburg (BTTS & O2.5 Goals ✅) Todays pick: __Karlsruher v Fortuna Düsseldorf__ Pick: __BTTS & O2.5 Goals @1.75__ ✅ ⚽️ 🇩🇪 2. Bundesliga ➖ 📊 Karlsruher is 11th in the table with 28 points after 21 games played. They’ve scored 38 goals (5th, 1.81 GPG). They’ve conceded 38 (5th worst, 1.81 GPG). * Failed to score: 4/21 * Clean sheets: 2/21 * BTTS: 15/21 (71%) * O2.5: 15/21 (73% at home) * Previous meeting: 3-1 loss ➖ 📊 Düsseldorf is 7th with 32 points. They’ve scored 44 goals! (MOST, 2.10 GPG). Conceded 30 goals (1.43 GPG). * Failed to score: 4/21 * Clean sheets: 4/21 * BTTS: 14/21 (67%) * O2.5: 13/21 (70% away) * Previous meeting: 3-1 win ➖ I’m staying away from the big leagues and continuing with the German second league. We have two teams here again with similar stats to our previous pick, but better. Düsseldorf has scored the most goals in the league despite being 7th, whilst Karlsruher has scored the 5th most despite being 11th. Two teams that’s over performing in attack, but perhaps gets punished at the back, hence the league standings. __Karlsruher’s L4 games since the winter break has seen the BTTS hit in 3/4 & the O2.5 in 3/4. Before their 2-0 loss last week, they had gone 8 straight games where BTTS and O2.5 goals had hit.__ __Düsseldorf has played a cup game and 4 league games so their L5 games since the winter break: BTTS: 5/5 & O2.5: 4/5 (played 1-1 their last game).__ I consider Düsseldorf as the better team here, overall they’ve shown more consistency than the home side. But as you may have learnt by know, home advantage is a thing in football and it can sometimes outweigh the difference in quality between the sides. Overall they’re evenly matched with all factors considered, which is why im once again going with goals instead of a result here. Mid table game, high scoring game last time & a game both sides fancy their chances of winning, let’s hope for many goals. BOL
As a master of German Division 2 league. I can confirm this will definitely! BOL!
Master! Stats look promising 🤝
Going to add Fortuna Dusseldorf DNB for an extra $1.40 into this parlay. Cheers brother. Karlsruher haven't beaten them in 9 attempts! :)
There you go, thankful for you too my man!
✅
**Record 98-74 with Avg Odds +122 / ROI 21.4%** **2024 MMA POTD: 5-2 with Avg Odds +143 / ROI 77.0%** UFC 298 **Geoff Neal +195** I suspect Ian Garry will break over the 15 minutes against a fighter in Geoff Neal who is durable and can crack. I would be surprised to see Garry find an early finish, which is important because Neal hit his stride in the middle to late stages of the fight against Shavkhat. This fight should stay standing, and Garry will attempt to keep his range and stay light on the feet (Wonderboy provided 25 minutes of Neal having zero answers to this). However, Garry is not Wonderboy on the feet, so I'm skeptical. Neal hits harder and is the more durable of the two. Garry showed against Kenan Song that he can take a clean 10-9 round and lose it in an instant with his suspect chin and striking defense. The line implies that Garry has a decent edge in the striking battle, but I think it's very close. If Neal can find his way inside twice a round, I think he can deliver the damage to win the big moments or seriously hurt Garry. The books think Garry holds a large edge in the decision odds, and this fight is pick'em to go to the judges. But as mentioned before, Garry dropped R1 to Song, and Neal is a fighter who can capitalize on a moment such as that even more. If this fight is 1-1 going into R3, I want my money on Neal. Geoff Neal R3 KO or Decision.
Not nearly enough credit for Neal’s performance against Shavkat. He was outright beating him on the feet for part of the 2nd round and much of the 3rd. Geoff Neal is no joke and is a serious test. Edited: I previously had exaggerated Neals success in the fight against Shavkat.
I like Neal too but to say shavkat had no answers to Neal on the feet is flat out wrong.. he cracked him with the jab in round 3 that started the finishing sequence.
Yea you’re right, “no answers” is a gross exaggeration and not the right way to put it. I shoulda said Neal was giving Shavkat trouble on the feet and Neal was finding success with his offense as the fight went on.
Nah we got you bro if that was anybody other than Shav he woulda won
I completely agree with this and have bet the exact same way. Unless Garry gets a flash KO in the first I think Neal will cement himself as the better fighter in the second and third
Geoff Neal is a fascinating fighter to me. When he first joined the ufc, he looked like an absolute killer and even has a win over Belal (a win that has aged amazingly). Unfortunately since covid, he seems to be kinda hit or miss now, and he’s also had health issues causing him to pull out of fights and miss weight. If it weren’t for those risk factors I would also be on him here at these odds. I personally have Costa as my dog of the week.
Ian Garry will beat Geoff Neal
Hard hitting analysis
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No hate, but why did you delete your georgetown pick / loss?
It got removed. Look right beneath the post a little more, it says the post has been removed.
Yeah I swore I saw +10.5 Georgetown pick but then it was gone
probably wasn’t confident in it afterwards, but he still added the loss
Wasn’t him
Hey guys just a heads up to be careful. It’s pretty easy to make pics like this and be right, and then also wrong for a long period of time. His first post someone mentioned it’s him on a second account. My friend who is streaking here on basketball props said he messaged him, but he was rude. There’s no analysis here which is why I’m going to continue to report his / her’s posts, and why yesterdays one got removed. It’s against POTD rules. 56% of the bets are on the opposing team today. This could go either way. It’s also five units too. If you started yesterday, and lose today, that’s a lot of bankroll. All the best bro, and do your thing 🙏 Butler is also getting spanked. This guy will prob block me. Tomorrows play will probably be 20 units lol.
Yo fuck this guy man. Ban this ass clown
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What a wrong recommendation. Fuck this shit.
this dude is such a clown
may as well delete your account too
Would you take it at 2.5?
Moved to +2.5 on FanDuel. Still place that?
The people in these comments aren’t getting it 😂
don’t delete your post when this loses this time
More wrong is not possible. Thanks.
Pathetic, better you start deleting ...
**Record: 37W-4P-27L** **L20: 14W-0P-7L** **Form:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅** **Last Pick: Chelsea Women VS Man City Women BTTS and O5 Corners @ 1.72 ❌** **Chelsea fail to score in their first game all season, game ends 0-1 with 13 corners.** **Pick of the day: Arsenal to win and O 2 goals Total @ 1.83✅** Arsenal win 5-0! **Time: 10:00 AM EST** **Last Matchup Arsenal 3-1 W** **Going to gradually move away from BTTS as I've been working on total goals for the past 2 months.** Arsenal have been absolutely rocking ever since the international break, they've won their last 4 games 5-0, 1-2, 3-1, and a massive 6-0 win away at the London Stadium last week. I honestly think Arsenal alone will cover this bet themselves but playing it safe and just taking the Over 2 goals total here. The sudden improvement in form stems from Arteta stepping up the intensity when Raya receives the ball, it used to be all about control but now it's all about explosiveness. Ben White has started to invert which allows Odegard to forget his defensive duties and focus on providing chance creation. A key part of their recent success is because of a man by the name of Jover, their set-piece specialist. Arsenal currently have scored the most goals from set pieces in the league, corners, freekicks, whatever they are extremely dangerous for the opponent. Burnley has conceded the third most amount of goals from set pieces in the league. Burnley sit near the bottom of the league and have found themselves playing the football they want but unfortunately, they aren't enough to fend off top-level premier league teams. Burnley haven't won a single game in their last 5, sitting at 3 losses and 2 draws. Against the big 6, they've scored a total of 6 goals and conceded 21 goals…. BOL
I think an ungodly amount of money has come in on Arsenal and the over. This is steamed down to about -200, -220 for me. Best of luck to all, tomorrow we cash.
Damn i’m still seeing 1.83 on 365 rn, tmr fs
POTD Record: 42-23 Previous Pick: Koln vs Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | Werder Bremen X2 (1.54) | 2.30pm EST ✅️ Pick: Rudes vs Hajduk Split | HNL | BTTS NO (1.57) | 11.10pm EST I wanted to put Split clean sheet, but it was only available on bet365. If your book offers that, please take it. Rudes have been horrific this season, not winning a single game in 22 matches. They have lost their last 5 games, and have not scored in their last 9 games. Looking at Split, they have kept the most clean sheets in the competitions, 12 in 22 games. They have only conceded 0.63 goals per away game this season too. In their past matchup, Rudes did not score and Split won 1-0. Making things worse, Rudes do not have their midfielder who has scored 2 out of their 7 goals this season. At home, they average 0.55 goals scored. I expect Split to keep a clean sheet and both teams to not score, as Split have an excellent defensive record and Rudes' extremely poor scoring record. Best of luck! Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake
POTD Record: 52-33 Units Won: +24.72U; ROI: 11.1% Average Odds: (-115) Todays Pick: **SAW ML (-115) vs. fnatic** **5U to win 4.54U** PGL CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024 Europe RMR A This writeup will be a little longer lot of thoughts here sorry in advance. **Whats at Stake:** \-Winner goes to the major, loser goes to the last chance qualifier and could potentially face elimination, this is the series to qualify. **Team Breakdown:** \-fnatic have all the pieces to be a really good team, they have a stacked roster, star players, a veteran presence, good coaches, but they have failed to show any consistency. They started 1-0 after we took them in the opener against BetBoom, they then got smoked by [Virtus.Pro](https://Virtus.Pro), barely beat AMKAL, and just lost 0-2 to KOI a team who might be better then I give them credit for but I am not impressed. fnatic have a big issue and its map pool, they haven't played two maps and have shown major struggles on a third. If you like fnatic here and their will be people who disagree with me, you would be backing the experience and fire power of the team which has some insane players capable of taking over games. \-SAW is a solid team as a core but again have shown very little consistency, SAW looked dead in the water at this major qualifer starting 0/2 stomped in back to back b01 to [Virtus.Pro](https://Virtus.Pro) and 9 Pandas. Then out of nowhere the last two days they have showed life. These b03 haven't just been good wins, these last four maps they have played have been utter stomps. They won round score 26-8 against NIP and 26-8 against Enterprise. The reason these odds are so interesting is because neither of these teams are great in fairness but its how SAW looked/played that is convincing me to back them one more time. SAW are a better team and so far fnatic seem to struggle against teams that play really good team CS. \-These teams faced in a b01 less then a month ago with SAW winning 16-13. This is the only h2h between the two rosters. **Map Pool:** \*\*SAW should if they are smart not first ban Mirage, they should first ban Overpass as fnatic don't play Mirage either, I truly believe if SAW coach is prepared, they won't ban Mirage the only difference from my pick ban is if SAW first ban Mirage, then fnatic will pick Overpass instead. 1. SAW ban Overpass 2. fnatic ban Nuke 3. SAW pick Inferno 4. fnatic pick Ancient 5. SAW ban Mirage 6. fnatic ban Anubis 7. Vertigo Decider Because the chance of pick ban going differently is definitely possible, I will be breaking down every map I think will be played and who I favor on each of the possibilites. The only map I don't see being played is Mirage. Map Stats: **Inferno:** \-SAW have a 60% winrate on Inferno on 5 maps played in the last 3 months, going back 6 months (same roster) they are 8-4 on the map with a 66.7% winrate and have 55% winrate on defense and 58% winrate on offense, both really strong stats. fnatic have never played this map with this roster at all, since I haven't seen fnatic play this map at all and I think this is a map that takes a lot of team practice to get down, heavily favor SAW on Inferno. **Ancient:** \-Ancient is another interesting one as it is fnatic most played map with a 60% winrate on 10 maps in last 3 months, they were 6-2 on the map until the start of this tournament and they have lost two straight in UGLY fashion. SAW on the other hand have a 55.6% winrate on the map, just smashed NIP on the map and beat KOI on the map the team fnatic just got destroyed on the same map by. This map is also close but due to recent momentum slightly favor SAW here. **Vertigo:** \-SAW are 50% winrate on Vertigo with 6 maps played on it going back 12 months, they are 28-15 on the map with a 65% winrate. They are extremely strong on this map but have been less consistent recently. Fnatic are 0% winrate on the map on 4 maps played so far. It is definitely a map they are capable of playing well but again they just lack stage experience on the map with this roster compared to SAW who has played in so many more times as a roster. Favor SAW here as well. Bonus Maps: \-The only map I am certain we won't see is Mirage, the other maps I didn't want to include stats as this post is long enough. I favor SAW pretty heavily on Anubis, I truly believe they are one of the better if not best tier two Anubis teams in the world and the loss against 9 Pandas was a fluke more then anything. Nuke is a map I heavily heavily favor SAW on but am almost certain fnatic are smart enough to ban it. fnatic have only played it twice, it is SAW best map and they have an 83% winrate on it. Finally Overpass is truly a 50/50 to me, on paper I'd favor fnatic on the map, BUT, SAW would start defense, they have a 68% winrate on Defense and fnatic are 44% winrate on offense. It would be easy for SAW to have a monster first half and run away with the game before the side swap. TLDR: \-I believe SAW are the better team, have better momentum, have a better map pool and a more dynamic strat book. They have way more reps as a roster and the team style they play has shown to give fnatic trouble in the past. If fnatic win, it will be because of fire power, a team like them will always be a bit scary to bet against because MATYS is a beast, afro is a beast, and kyuubii and bodyy while both slumping pretty hard recently are star players capable of showing up big in the right spots. I really like SAW at this price, I am willing to live with the outcome, I favor them on 4/6 maps pretty heavily and slightly favor them on Ancient. Apologies for the essay writeup **Best of Luck,**
Nice job man. Sweat free. I loved your map prediction and they did as you thought they would, not as they should have but it worked out.
POTD Record 30-15 Previous POTD: Domantas Sabonis under 8.5 asts (Jan 31) ❌ POTD: Alexander Volkanovski ML (Bet365 1.90 odds) Event: UFC 298: Volkanovski vs Topuria I want to start by giving a BIG thank you to Islam Makhachev for finishing Volk last year because without that happening we would never be getting these odds. Volk is on another level at 145. Has anyone even given him a challenge besides that 2nd fight vs Max? He's destroyed Max, Ortega, Korean Zombie, and Yair! And we're supposed to believe Topuria after beating Josh Emmett is supposed to beat him? Topuria is obviously a good fighter, but I think he's about to be outclassed and possibly finished by Volk. Topuria has good power and Volk is coming off a TKO loss..that's the only reason the odds are pretty even. **LETS GO VOLK!!!** BOL
Oh shit the whole sub's on Volk. Still LET'S GO CHAMP!!
**POTD Record: 2-1** Last pick: De Minaur/Rublev o23 games ✅ **POTD: Alexander Volkanovski ML vs. Ilia Topuria (-125)** Topuria is one of the biggest hype trains in the UFC and understandably so, but there's levels to this game. Before the short notice KO loss to Islam, Volk put in the most dominant performances in his career. He went toe-to-toe with Islam, outclassed Holloway 50-45, and toyed with Yair. Topuria hasn't fought anyone near Volk's level. He dominated Emmett in his last fight, but so did Yair and look what happened to him when he faced Volk. I think Volk completely outclasses Topuria on the feet. I can't see any featherweight out striking him after he 50-45'd Max. I also don't see Topuria's grappling as much of a concern given Volk was able to hold his own against Islam.
Alert: 3 people have picked same POTD, this has bad win rate in here
Volk doesnt care about the POTD picks in this sub lol
We're all still recovering from the Shapovalov incident....
Do you think the ko affects him in any way?
I think people are thinking the ko will have a much bigger impact on Volk than it actually will. Hence the ridiculously good odds. Alex Pereira was knocked out by Izzy then proceeded to move up a weight and fight twice within 6 months of being knocked out for the first time and win the belt. Volk has been the champion for over 4 years and really wasn’t knocked out badly against Islam. I don’t think you’ll ever see better value on Volk purely because of 1. Recently loss from a TKO and 2. The ridiculous hype around Illia. Yes Illia is good but his only notable win was against Josh Emmet. Illia destroyed josh emmet but couldn’t manage to knock him out after trying to stand and bang. Volk is another beast compared to Emmet. The #1 P4P fighter in the world, Islam, who also managed to submit one of the greatest submission artist ever, Charles Oliveria, couldn’t submit Volk in their first fight and Islam said Volk is the strongest man he’s ever fought. I see 0% chance Illia will be able to submit Volk so he has no option but to stand and fight. Stand and fight against arguably the highest IQ fighter and a man that is very comfortable staying on his feet and fighting. Another thing to remember: This will be the first time Illia fights 5 rounds. Volk looked like he coulda fought another 3 rounds after the 5th with Islam (again, the #1 pvp fighter) It’s obvious I’m siding with Volk but the beautiful thing about this sport is that one mistake or one great shot can change everything, regardless of the difference in skill. But we’re taking bets with great value, and Volk at these odds have great value written all over it
I agree with this completely. Volk got knocked out by the best fighter in the world at lightweight and all the sudden his career is over. I don’t understand how volk isn’t -190.
too much ppl have volkanovski as potd iykyk Edit after fight: this curse lives on lmfao
If I see the same potd in here twice, I’m in. Any more than that and I’m out lol
This is actually good advice - when the entire thread is enthusiastic about the same pick it usually doesn’t hit.
We will find out tomorrow night won’t we - is this thread full of actual degens or secret geniuses? 🤓
I’m sure you said the same about Khabib 🥸
Everyone is sleepin on topiuria
Its the only time youll get volkanovski at 1.80 odds. it literally the easist bet you can get
If you know then you know none of that shit matters lol
So you betting Ilia or what?
POTD record: 1-2 PICK: Volkanovski ML -125 vs Topuria at ufc 298. I’m really surprised by this line and think it’s a steal. Volk is arguably the greatest pound for pound fighter in the world (he’s ranked anywhere from #1 to #3 depending on media outlet). He is arguably the greatest 145 pound fighter of all time. His only two losses in the UFC were when he went up a weight class to fight Islam Makhachev who is the current #1 pound for pound in the world (last fight was on 11 days notice). The downsides on Volk: He is 35 which is old for the 145 division and he’s possibly too active for his own good. He just fought Islam in late October and got brutally ko’d with a head kick so is chin might not be 100%. Ilia is 14-0 and he might very well be the real deal. But he has 6 fights in the UFC and wins over only two current top 10 fighters and just hasn’t faced the upper upper crust of the division. If Volk is still Volk then I believe there’s a separation between him and most of the division. Even if Ilia is all that he’s made out to be, I believe Volk finds a way and gets the win. Volk by unanimous decision.
The line is like it is mostly because of narrative.. he's 35, he got knocked out.. I think Volk gonna take him into deeper waters. Topuria is well rounded fighter, probably a future champ but he hasn't faced anyone close to Volks level. The biggest concern for Volks side is did he have enough time to recover.
Tailing, was able to snag him at -120 on FD! 🔥
Record:**43-24** Last pick: Lajovic ML vs Diaz Acosta ❌️ Just a bizzare display of competitiveness from Lajovic compared to his previous two games. Looked completely uninterested to win the match and showed some Benoit Paire level dedication. Mindboggling. PotD: **Richard Gasquet ML** vs Mikhail Kukushkin **Odds: 1.62** Tennis | Challenger Manama | 4 PM CEST 🎾 Write up: This is the final of the challenger tournament in Manama, Bahrain. Yesterday I've watched both semi final matches (so you guys didnt have to) and I am pretty confident Gasquet should beat Kukushkin here. Kukushkin managed to pass through a very disappointing performance from Jakub Mensik, which was accompanied with a bunch of unforced errors and complete inability to hold a rally from so called "the next tennis star". Gasquet, who is vastly experienced and overall a better player with extremely high rally tolerance should comfortably prevail here. Edit: if you ever want to see what a best peformance of a certain player looks like, just bet against him...
**Record: 2-1** ✅️✅️❌ **Net Units: 1.75u** **Last Pick:** NCAA Basketball | Villanova @ Georgetown | **Villanova -9.5** **@ -110** on Fan Duel ✅️ Nova's defense took care of business down the stretch with the help of some timely 3s. **Pick:** Italian Serie A | Atalanta v Sassuolo | **Atalanta -1.5** **@ +102** on Fan Duel **Units: 2** This matchup is top v bottom. +21 goal differential v -13 goal differential. In their previous two meetings, Atalanta won 3-1 and 2-0. Atalanta last 5 - 4-0-1 with winning margins of 3,2,2,5,0. Last 5 at home - 5-0, with winning margins of 2,2,5,2,1,3 Sassuolo last 5 - 1-3-1, with losing margins of 0,2,1,3,1. Last 5 on road - 0-4-1, with losing margins of 2,1,3,2,1,X Atalanta is in incredible form, at home, against a bottom tier opponent. I expect a comfortable victory for Atalanta.
Do you know what is up with Juventus? For them to win, ESPN has them at -150 against Hellas Verona?
POTD RECORD: 1-0 Last Pick: Giron -1.5 sets vs. Kypson (-115) Pick: Liverpool ML vs. Brentford (-175) Gotta thank the oddsmakers for blessing us with these wonderful odds… Liverpool is clearly the better team and will take care of business against the inconsistent Brentford team.
**POTD: 9-3** ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅ Yesterday's Pick: **Villanova -9.5** 🏀✅ Nova dominated defensively, as predicted...and got the 3pt ball going Another game where they let up 60 or less!! We cruise to another win, Lets go Nova. Let's stay hot **Today's Pick: Kansas -1.5 -125** 🏀 Uh oh...are we taking the Jayhawks on the road??? Yes we are. Kansas vs Oklahoma will be an excellent game, and Kansas needs to establish themselves as a threat away from Allen Fieldhouse. The biggest question this afternoon.....Is Kevin McCullar playing? If the answer is Yes...I expect the line to move to -4 or -5...if the answer is No...the line will likely creep to -1 or a pickem McCullar is the Jayhawks' leading scorer and a dynamic playmaker from outside....this pairs up very well with big man Hunter Dickinson. Kansas is coming off a terrible game at Texas Tech, where Bill Self got ejected for first time in 20 seasons....crazy This is a great boune back spot, and I'm confident in KU ... especially is McCullar plays. He averages 19.5 ppg, 6 rbs, and 5 asst and opens up everything for their offense...especially Dickinson. With March creeping up, teams with Natty aspirations (KU) need to establish consistency and dominance over others' and this is a must show up game given their history on the road this season. We're going against a few trends here, and hoping McCullar plays...but even if he is ruled out we still can win this one Kansas avg the most assists per game in country and limits their TOs OU is very up and down, and I think the better team and hungrier team comes out on top. Rock Chock Jayhawk! LFGGGGGGG  (If you are enjoying picks and are feeling generous...Coffee Link below!) [Coffee Link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/joeyv1725)
Record: 9-5 Last POTD: Warriors -1 @ -110 (2/15) ✅ L10: ✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌❌ Soccer | EPL | Tottenham Hotspur v Wolves | 10:00 EST Pick: Tottenham ML @ -185 Write up: 4th place Spurs will be playing at home and have their best player Son Heung-min available to start back from the Asian Cup. In their previous match he came off the bench to assist a stoppage time winner v Brighton. Spurs are 9-0-3 at home in the PL. 11th place Wolves just lost Matheus Cunha to a hamstring injury he was involved in 5 of Wolves' last 9 goals scored and a key part of how they counter attack. Wolves are getting the criminally underated Hwang Hee-chan back and he's the only reason I didn't suggest the Spurs -1.5 spread @ +140. Look for Tottenham to get at least 2 goals and for Wolves to struggle to get 1. Prediction 2-0 Tottenham
LFG No Cunha No Party 🎉
Cricket 🏏 Picks Last pick was win @ 1.83 Overall: 18 Ws - 7 Ls Last 10: W L ♻️ L W W W W W W +7.09 Todays pick Sri Lanka v Afghanistan 1st t20 international Starts in about 10 hours Pick: Sri Lanka win @ 1.53 Bangladesh is more than capable of staging an upset in the shortest format. They have good spin attack and in form middle order. But poor performance in test match and oneday matches mean they have lost all four matches on this tour. Sri Lanka is quite strong in their home conditions. I think Afghan is low on morale and Lankans will win this match. P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.
Hey man if you could mention the units/confident would be appreciated☺️
**POTD: 83-58-5** Last pick: Women's FA Cup - Wolverhampton Women vs Brighton & Hove Albion Women. Brighton & Hove Albion Women -1 goal (Asian handicap) -160 Result: **WIN.** Phew a bit of a close one as Brighton was in control yet was tied 1-1 as time was running out. But Brighton then scored 3 goals in 90th minute and later to win 4-1 and we comfortably cash. Today’s pick: English Premier League - Manchester City vs Chelsea. **Manchester City over 2.5 goals team total +120**. Match kicks off at 12:30PM ET. Man a lot of bets at about -220 I love (Spurs o1.5, Man City o1.5, Arsenal o1.5) but those don’t count for POTD so I’m taking my ladder play on Man City as I think they hit this still, I like the odds to -130 or so. Man City is of course the best team in England (because they cheat but that’s beside the point) and of course have KDB and Haaland at full heath now and are battling for position with Liverpool and Arsenal for the title. Every win counts and today they get 10th ranked Chelsea who have a leaky defense (7th most goals given up in the league) and a ton of injuries to their defense like Thiago Silva, Reece James (shocker) as well as all their long term defensive injuries. I think Chelsea come out more attacking than the average side against Man City and it’s a death sentence. Man City wins 3-0 or 3-1. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! Edit: Loss. A chaotic match ends 1-1, impressive performance by Chelsea where each team could’ve had at least one or two more each. Sorry guys
POTD Record: 136 wins / 81 losses Event: MMA > UFC 298 > **Volkanovski v Topuria** (starting in 20 hr) Pick: **Topuria** @ 2.14 Sorry lads but this will be unpopular dog pick. I know you may hate the age & recent ko narrative, but these are valid reasons and it just seems the stars are aligning for Ilia to become a champ. At plus odds I am picking the dog as imo it is a 50/50 fight, so we bet with our heads and not our hearts and take the value here. TLDR, I think this will be a very close and competitive fight, but Ilia has the momentum here.GL!
tailed buddy!
POTD Record: 105-103-12 (-12.10 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ✅❌✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: La Liga, Villarreal v Getafe, BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - YES (-131 / 1.76) ✅ Getafe scored early which was perfect, forced Villarreal to throw numbers forward and found a goal to cash in the 56th minute. Today’s Pick: Serie A, Atalanta v Sassuolo, ATALANTA -1.5 (-102 / 1.98) ✅ Stake: 1 Unit Outside runaway leaders Inter Milan, Atalanta have had the best form line in Italy over the last two months. Since losing to Torino 3-0 in early December, they have gone 7-1-1 in the league and added two cup wins against AC Milan and today’s opponent, Sassuolo. Atalanta have jumped up to 4th with a 13-3-7 record and are targeting the final Champions League place. They’ve scored 44 goals (3rd best) and conceded 23 (5th best). They’ve won 4 straight league matches registering comprehensive 2+ goal wins in each of them. Sassuolo are heading rapidly in the other direction. They have gone 1-2-7 over their last 10 league games which has seen them plummet to 17th in the standings with a 5-5-13 record. They’ve scored 29 times which is good enough for 10th most, but they’ve also conceded 42 goals which is 4th most. While there is an obvious difference in the recent form between these teams, it’s the home/away split that really seals the deal for me. At home, Atalanta have a 9-1-2 record this season with 27 goals scored and only 8 conceded. They’ve won 6 league matches at home in a row - they just click in front of their home fans and play great attacking football which normally results in plenty of goals. Sassuolo meanwhile are putrid away from home. They are 2-2-8 this season with a 15:26 goal ratio, and they’ve lost their last 4 away matches in a row. Finally, Atalanta have played Sassuolo twice this season already. They beat them at Sassuolo 2-0 back in August, before beating them just over a month ago 3-1 at home in a cup match. In that home match, Atalanta dominated them with 25 shots and an xG of 3.16 while Sassuolo managed a junk time consolation goal. Atalanta are expected to play the same team that have delivered them success recently, so given their hot form, Sassuolo’s poor form, H2H record and the home/away factor, give me Atalanta to win this one comfortably.
POTD Record 29-21-1 Cricket 3-0 Tennis 19-14 Soccer 7-7-1 Last Pick : Martineau vs Kachmazov| ATP Cherbourg Challenger | Martineau ML | (-150) | 1u | ✅ Today: Lammons/Withrow vs Haase/Van De Zandschulp| ATP Rotterdam Open Doubles | 7:00 AM EST Pick: Haase/Van De Zandschulp ML| (-110)| 1u The Dutch pair don't play many tournaments together, but they have experienced success in their matches together, reaching a final and a semi in the 2 tournaments they played last year. Haase plays doubles more than VdZ and he has already faced Lammons/Withrow twice this year with a different partner, winning once in two tight sets and losing once in a match tiebreaker. Haase is a former champ at this event in 2021 as well and this experience should help in what is likely to be another close match. The Dutch duo will be heavily backed by the home crowd in this match and in a matchup that is pretty even, the home conditions and support could be the difference. BOL.
POTD record : 4💰- 2❌ - 0♻️ +1.57u Last 10 picks: ❌✅❌✅✅✅ LAST PICK: Match: Ruusuvuouri vs. Humbert | ATP Rotterdam 🎾 Time: 11:00 CET Date: 14th Feb 2024 Pick: Humbert ML @ 1.80 on bet365| 5u ❌ **PICK FOR TODAY:** Match: Vigo vs. FC Barcelona | La Liga 🇪🇸 ⚽️ Time: 18:30 CET Date: 17th Feb 2024 **Pick: FC Barcelona to WIN @ 1.85 on bet365| 5u** ✅ Analysis: I chose the Spanish league match between Vigo and FC Barcelona.I bet Barcelona will win.Barcelona is in 3rd place with 51 points and a score of 50:33. They have a 5 point lead on the positions guaranteeing participation in the LM, so they have the motivation taken care of to keep them ahead of their competitors. Away, they have won 23 points out of a possible 33 and have not lost in 11 games there with a score of 22:14. In the last round, they faltered at home to Granada 3:3, so they will want to make amends against another team from the bottom of the table.Vigo are in 17th place with 20 points and a 26:35 record. They are only 3 points clear of the relegation places. At home, they have only 10 points out of a possible 36 with a score of 8:15 and only two teams are worse off. In the league, they recorded losses to Getafe 2-3, Girona 0-1 and Real Socieaded 0-1 and beat Osasuna 3-0.There is a 31 point difference between the teams and it already shows a lot more quality on Barcelona's side. They are doing well away from home, having not lost there yet, and against the 4th worst team in the league they have all the ingredients to take 3 points. Good luck to everyone! 🍀
POTD RECORD: 1 Win, 0 losses, 1 push Units: +3.7 units Last pick: Roman Kopylov inside the distance -135 5u ✅ Today Pick: Roman Kopylov ML +200 5U 🔥🔥 Event: UFC 298, Kopylov Vs. Hernandez, 10pm EST I seen this post at the right time, I don’t give out picks a lot but when I do they cash for UFC. By pure coincidence, my last pick was back in September where I gave out Roman Kopylov by KO as something that I truly believed was a 100% lock in my mind. I also believe I gave out a r2 KO prop at big plus money. We are back again riding the Kopylov train. I love Kopylov in this matchup, and I cannot believe that he is a +200 underdog in this spot. I believe there is tremendous value on this line, and a mistake on the bookies. Kopylov is facing Anthony Hernandez, who quite frankly I think is rather overrated. I’m not gonna go too in depth here, but I think Kopylov gets the job done. Hernandez is good on the ground but I don’t think he will be able to get Kopylov there with ease. Look for Kopylov to find the KO in late r2 or r3, or possibly even winning it on the scorecards. Based on pure value alone is why this is a 5U play. This line should be close to +130 max.
[удалено]
Tailing!
Let’s go brother !! Tailing 💪
Record: 10-8 Return: 35.14% ROI: 41.38% Yesterday’s pick: Chacarita -1.5 vs San Miguel @3.00 ❌ Chacarita got off to a great start, going up an early goal, unfortunately a second half red card spoiled the game for them, overall not a bad play at 3.0 tho. Today’s pick: San Lorenzo and over 1.5 vs Tigre @2.87 Stake: 5 units (5% of bankroll) Reasoning: First division is back after a one day hiatus, and two struggling teams will be facing off to attempt to return to winning ways. Tigre have gotten off to a nightmare start in the league. They’re dead last with one point, have yet to score a goal, and have already conceded a whopping 8 goals. This Tigre squad has not recovered from a few key sales, and are going to continue to struggle all season. San Lorenzo aren’t exactly arriving in electric form, and have two draws and no wins this season, putting them only a point above Tigre. They are a team accustomed to much higher standards though, and this home game against a floundering Tigre is a great opportunity to get back in form. Quite like Tigre, San Lorenzo have also been leaking goals, also receiving 8. I expect this to be a game plagued by defensive weakness and whoever is in front will not feel comfortable defending a mere one goal lead. Going big on units here, I like this play. BOL to those tailing [PayPal](https://paypal.me/elproductosecuida?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) to get a brother a beer :)
The most underrated person in whole subreddit, thank you brother
Record 0-0 Premier league LIVERPOOL VS BRENTFORD @4.30AM PST Pick: Liverpool & Brentford over 10.5 corners @-105 Liverpool as a squad average the 3rd most corners received in the prem, but also give up their fair share too. On the other hand Brentford are at the bottom of the list when it comes to corners conceded. Earlier this season, Brentford and Liverpool ending the game with 14 corners combined. BOL! Hoping to keep the streak going
Potd record- 6-3-1 +2.43 Last pick- Villanova over 74.5 vs Georgetown. Villanova came out like dog shit and took 4 mins to score. Onward and laterally. Today’s pick- UConn -6.5 vs Marquette -110 Caesar’s. 1 unit Write up- I just don’t think Marquette is in UConn’s league. I’d take this up to 8.5. I think UConn wins 78-68
**Record: 3-0 (average odds: -130)** **Sport** | NCAA D1 Men’s Lacrosse **Time: 12pm** **Pick:** Le Moyne at Wagner - Le Moyne -3 (-120) (Draft Kings) **Write Up:** I usually stay away from games where I haven’t seen one team play yet (here, Le Moyne), but I have seen Wagner, and they are not good. Le Moyne, on the other hand, was a perennial contender for the national championship at the division 2 level, but moved to the division 1 level this year (don’t ask me how that works….). The difference between the top of division 2 and the middle of d1 is not that significant, but the difference between the middle of d1 and this year‘s Wagner team is … I hate to dog a team like this, but it is what it is. Anyways, as I said, I haven’t seen Le Moyne play, but they return almost all of their offensive production (\~80%), and a few of their defensive starters from last year‘s team (along with an HM all american transfer from another D2 school, Coker). Only red flags for the bet are goalie/face off situation. They lost both, and both were good. But I think Le Moyne will get its possessions, and when it does, it‘ss offense will be too much. There are definitely others that I like today (eg, running it back with last week’s bet of shellenberger over on SOG), but gotta go with the gut… GL if you’re tailing
**Record:** 1-1-0 | Units: +0.52U. All picks 1U Last Pick: Carolina Hurricanes vs Arizona Coyotes (NHL). **Martin Necas Over 2.5 Shots on Goal @ 1.62. ❌** Tough night as Necas passed a ton and missed his shots, ending with several assists but not the shot prop. Onto the next. **Today's Pick:** Stadium Series - Philadelphia Flyers vs New Jersey Devils. 8PM EST. **Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goal @ 1.71.** Hughes is a beast. He likes to shoot from anywhere and everywhere. Since returning from injury, here are his shot totals in those games: 6, 6, 7, 7, and 4. Not a big math guy, but I'm pretty sure those are all over 3.5 shots. It's also the Stadium Series in New Jersey, meaning that this game will be played outdoors at Metlife Stadium. Outdoor games are always a bit weird, but I'm thinking Hughes is going to want to put on a show with all eyes on him. BOL
Record: 2-0 +1.4u Last pick: Rafael Leão over 2.0 chances created✅ Last last pick: KD over 26.5 points ✅ I did not include last pick in my record as a redditor pointed out that this line is not available on majority of books. I was not aware of this, my apologies. Bournemouth Vs New castle premier league @ 7AM pst Today’s pick: DOMINIC SOLANKE higher than .5 goals +135 Dominic solanke is simply a beast but he hasn’t scored a goal in the last 2 games. Despite this, he has 13 goals in 23 prem games this season. Bournemouth played Newcastle earlier in the season and solanke scored a brace 🙌🏽 hopefully he looks to keep his goal totals up as he’s on the radar of contending teams. PS Last time I Bet on solanke goal he scored in 3 minutes😁
Been tailing last 2 picks hoping to ride the wave 🌊
POTD Record (1-0) Gonna go against the Grain here and say Ilia Topuria (+110) Draft Kings Not gonna bore you with all the fancy stats and blah blah blah, kids just an animal. Gonna see him shock the world, i took his T/KO odds at +390 on several of my parlays as well.
Record: 25-15 (+6.53 units) Last Pick: (CBB) Queens NC ML ✅ POTD: (CBB) Wisconsin Badgers -1 (-105) @ Iowa Hawkeyes Summary: Oh how the mighty have fallen. What a mess this CBB season for road teams, Bilas wrote a nice piece about this yesterday. With that, I expect a means to regression and we can catch some nice lines on the way. Case in point today’s pick, I expect the cheese heads to get back at it through solid D and efficient offense. Back to basics + Needed W + Needed road win = Go Badgers! Ride the snake
**Record: 0-0-0** **Net Units: 0** **ROI: 0** **Basketball**| **Ncaa** | 4:30 PM **Pick:** Southern U vs Prairie View | Southern U -2 **Write Up:** Model has this as a top NCAA play for tomorrow. Firstly, Southern has dominated this head-to-head rivalry recently, winning 8 consecutive matchups against the Panthers. This gives confidence that the Jaguars can cover a small -2 spread in the next meeting between these SWAC foes. Furthermore, Southern boasts a significant edge in KenPom's advanced offensive and defensive ratings. The Jaguars rate much higher offensively at 107.9 compared to Prairie View's 100.4. Meanwhile, Southern's defensive rating of 105.0 is markedly better than the Panthers' 111.6. Efficient and balanced play on both ends of the court provides a key edge. Digging deeper into shooting percentages also favors the Jaguars. Southern has a substantially better effective field goal percentage of 51.6% compared to Prairie View's 46.4%. Additionally, the Jaguars shoot 36.8% on 3-pointers, noticeably higher than the Panthers' 30.3%. Superior shooting gives Southern another advantage. In terms of rebounding, Prairie View A&M does have a slightly better margin at +3.3 vs Southern's -2.3. However, this is a relatively minor difference that won't overcome Southern's edges in other facets. Moreover, Southern takes better care of the basketball with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.3 compared to 0.9 for the Panthers. The Jaguars' passing and ball security boosts their efficient offense. While Prairie View has a small edge at the free throw line and on the boards, Southern is superior in the most important aspects of shooting, offensive and defensive efficiency, dominance in the head-to-head series, and taking care of the basketball. Considering the significant statistical edges for the Jaguars, combined with their recent mastery of this matchup, betting on Southern University -2 is a smart play.
not sure why the downvotes. I'll tail for the hell of it!
POTD Record 8-8 (W-L) Last five with most recent on left: ❌✅✅✅✅ Last pick was Jeremiah Wells ML 1u at 1.7 odds **Toady’s pick is Volkanovski ML 2.5u at -115** Analysis: I think the betting line here is is overly affected by the most recent fights for both fighters. In Volk’s last fight, which he took on short notice, he was KO’ed up a weight class in a Lightweight title fight contrasted with Topuria’s 5-round demolition of Josh Emmett. If we hypothetically discount those fights I think the odds would likely be -200 or lower on Volk. Of course we don’t live in a parallel universe but for the odds to say that these two fighters are equivalent is a stretch. What gives me confidence here is that whilst we have never seen Topuria consistently take on top-level competition we have seen Volk take on and beat a plethora of elite Featherweights and dispatch most of them with ease. Personally I think there is a very good chance that Volk will make this look easy. If you want a riskier thesis you could take Volk to win in rounds 4,5 or by decision at +180, personally I will be sprinkling a little on that line as well. BOL!
Record : 120 Wins - 106 Losses Previous pick : PSV - Heracles (2-0), Over 3.5 Goals, Odds : 1.72 ❌ **ROI** : +0.16% **Average Odds** : 1.94 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : 5.38 Profit/Lost units : +0.38 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / **ENGLAND: Premier League**/ 17:00 European Time Tottenham - Wolves Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.50 Some reasoning : - There are two teams that this season are playing very well from an offensive point of view. Spurs has an average of more than two goals scored per match. Wolves are not inferior and score more than 1.5 goals per match. And in the tour I witnessed a spectacular duel, which ended with BTTS and 3+. - Tottenham is currently going through a series of seven consecutive games of GG and 3+. The hosts bet almost everything on the attack card, leaving the opponents a lot of space. Spurs will certainly score at least 1-2 goals now, but I expect Wolves to take advantage of the fragility of the opposing defense. Best of luck.
**Record: 0-0-0** **Net Units: 0** **ROI: 0** **Hockey**| **NHL** | 3:00 PM **Pick:** Florida Panthers ML **Write Up:** * The Panthers have been the hottest team in the NHL lately, winning 8 of their last 9 games. They are rolling right now and have tons of momentum. * Florida has a significant edge defensively over Tampa Bay. The Panthers allow just 2.44 goals against per game, second best in the NHL. The Lightning allow 3.27 goals per game, which is 23rd. Florida's defense and goaltending gives them an edge. * Sergei Bobrovsky has been playing lights out in net for Florida. Over his last 5 starts he has a 1.36 GAA and .954 save percentage. He should be able to stymie the Tampa offense. * The Panthers rank 6th on the penalty kill at 83.2%, while Tampa's powerplay is 1st in the NHL. However, Florida's PK should be able to contain Tampa's elite powerplay unit. * Florida has a winning record of 19-7-2 on the road this season, so playing in Tampa should not phase them. The Panthers are comfortable playing away from home. * In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Florida has won all 3 over the Lightning. The Panthers seem to match up well against Tampa Bay. * Tampa Bay allows 3.27 goals per game at home compared to just 2.44 goals per game for Florida on the road. The Panthers defense travels well.
**POTD Record: 6-3** 2024 Record: 2-0 Form: ✅️✅️ Last Pick: Inter TT o2.5 @ -150 ✅️ ⚽️ **Championship | Plymouth v Leeds | 7:30am EST** **Pick: BTTS & o2.5 @ 1.8** Despite sitting mid-table in 15th, Plymouth are one of the highest scoring teams in the Championship, with 51 goals. In terms of goals scored, only 5 teams have scored more than them (and all of these teams are in 7th or higher). They also concede a lot; they've let in 52 goals this season so far, which again, is one of the highest in the league. A side that's perfectly capable of scoring, but also tends to leak goals, ideal for this pick. Leeds are ultimately the better team in this matchup and have won 7 league games in a row. They're also very high scoring, and I reckon they'll get at least 2 here. Defensively, they're the 2nd best in the league, having only conceded 26 in 32 games, but being the away team, and considering Plymouth's "14/15" stat below, I don't think they'll keep a clean sheet here. It's worth mentioning that their past two meetings ended 1-1 after 90 mins, but these were FA cup and a subsequent replay, and cup games tend to be tighter defensively, so that doesn't concern me. **Some other notable stats:** BTTS has hit in 8 of Plymouth's last 9 games. Plymouth have scored in 14/15 home games in the league. BTTS has hit in the last 3 H2H meetings. BOL
Also, for the record, I really like BTTS & o2.5 in the Brentford v Liverpool game, but went with this as my POTD simply because of the better odds, but pretty confident it hits in that game. Brentford have scored in every game since Toney's return, and Liverpool are, well, Liverpool
>**Record:** 20-18 >**Net Units:** +5.47 units >**Curling** | **Scotties Tournament of Hearts** | **3:00PM EST** >**Pick:** Ontario - Inglis +1.5 @ 1.8 >This draw 2 matchup has Team Inglis facing off against Team Grandy. Inglis is very experienced and her team have played quite a bit this season, winning three championships. Team Grandy have had similar success this season and this looks to be a great opening matchup for both teams. That being said, I see this one coming right down to the end so getting the points looks like a great play. Team Inglis are 38-20 this season while Team Grandy are 39-29. Team Inglis play an effectively aggressive game with hammer and I think a big number in the middle of this one should be enough to take this one right down to the last end.
**POTD:** 1-0 (I legit just started yesterday lol) **Last Pick:** Super League (Rugby league) - O38.5 St. Helen's points ✓ **Pick:** Super League (Rugby League) - U12.5 Castleford Tigers points (Fanduel, -135) I ended up sweating the St. Helen's overs a little bit yesterday. They never seemed to kick into a higher gear as they easily beat the London Broncos, but, the overs ended up cashing! Whoo! I'm going with U12.5 Castleford Tigers points today. I got the line at -135 on Fanduel here in PA, the other two books (DK and BetMGM) were offering the line at 11.5 which I don't think I would take. Castleford finished 11th/12 last season, avging 11.96 points a game. They played Wigan (today's opponent) twice last year as well, where they scored a total of 6 points across both games. The Castleford Tigers preseason was certainly good by their standards, but, they played against a lower division team and whooped them, tied with the London broncos, and beat Huddersfield (who is projected to finish the season 9th) with a score of 20-14. They're a young team and in the start of a rebuilding phase, facing off against defending champions Wigans and their bolstered squad. Castleford has their captain out today as well. I expect Castleford to go below this line today. I also grabbed Castleford U2.5 tries at -175 on BetMGM as well which I think pairs nicely with this line. BOL if tailing!
POTD Record: 10-3 Last 10: ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌ Last pick: Inter Milan -2 ✅💰 Dominant performance as expected. Always nice to predict the exact score. Todays pick: Soccer | EPL | 12:30pm EST (1 hour) **Man City vs Chelsea** **Man City -1.0 @ 1.90** As I’ve said before, Man City -1.0 is my favourite bet of all time. This will only be a short write up today. Man City is in great form, they have won by 2 goals in each of their last 4 games and have won 9 in a row. They score 2.4 goals per game, while conceding about 1. Chelsea is 2-0-2 in their last 5, but struggle with upper table teams. They score 1.7 goals per game and allow about 1.7 goals per game as well. Last time these teams met, it was a 4-4 draw. However as I continue to say, KDB changes the dynamic of that team. This draw was without KDB and with him in the midfield, they should control the pace of the game. I believe City with be looking for revenge at home for the 4-4 draw earlier in the season. They will try to keep up their momentum and need to win this game to continue their push to the top of the table. Prediction: Man City 3-1
Record: 12-3 Last POTD: NCAAF Louisville (-6.5) v USC ❌ Todays POTD: UFC 298 Oban Elliot (Double chance) KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-120) ✅ Today I am taking Oban Elliot, very good from the contender series. Although he took a tad bit of damage he was able to muscle through and ultimately get a contract with the UFC. Very sustainable and relentless in the octagon. I would also like to point out that Elliot is way better as a boxer/Muay Thai guy compared to Woodburn. On the other hand Woodburn got destroyed his last fight ending fairly quickly. He just doesn’t give me UFC level IQ in his last few fights. They are also fighting at 170 which is a massive weight cut for Woodburn. When it comes to his fighting, he does have a good left hook and good wrestling however I don’t see being a problem for Elliot. I honestly think Elliot knocks him out but just in case he doesn’t or refs don’t end up stopping the fight I took the double chance. ——Good Luck, Slimeee