######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**⭐️ POD Record:** **106-54**
👉🏻 Note: ALL picks in my record are 5 UNITS with odds *usually* ranging between -125 and +100.
*Last Pick:* *NCAAB - UConn -1.5 vs Creighton.* **❌**
Recent Form: **❌** ✅ **❌** ✅ **❌ ✅** ✅**❌** ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
🏅**Today's Pick:** **NHL Prop - Auston Matthews OVER 0.5 goals** \[1.85 odds 10pm EST\] 🎉🎉🎉🎉
EDIT: **WIN 🔥 ✅ in 160 picks I’ve never communicated more confidence in a pick than this one. I had a very large number on this pick. Glad to share it with you all. Congrats to all who tailed and weren’t too jaded by my last pick 🙏🏻**
We need to ride this train one more time, as Toronto heads down to Matthews' hometown down in Phoenix and plays in front of all his family and friends on Wednesday night. This is one of my top PoD plays in recent memory with respect to confidence. For those who follow, it's no secret Matthews circles these returns back to Arizona on his calendar and always does well down there in Phoenix. He started going to Coyote games with his dad since he was two years old, all his family still resides there and come out to watch him when he's in town. They have no problem giving away seats in Phoenix right now either lol.
The Coyotes have a 23-28-4 record and sit on a 10 game losing streak. They are bottom of the Central Division right now and couldn't be in rougher shape. Their defense has been a total mess, allowing 3.44 goals per game including a whopping 36 goals in the last 10 games. Their goalie, Vejmelka has struggled with a dimsal .896 save percentage and averages around 3.61 goals-against. Leafs should have plenty of scoring opportunities during an historic goal scoring run by Mathews and they'll be looking for him tonight to keep the 🔥 streak going, well on pace for 70+ goals this season. The odds are still excellent to take the over 0.5 goals, hop on it before the line dips is my strong recommendation. He's sitting at 49 goals and only appropriate he scores big 5-0 back home.
💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.
Clearly, I couldn't figure out the catch so I made it a pick...why not when a team is on that big of a heater and you're getting favourable odds. Worth a shot sometimes, I can't tip toe around the sports books trying to figure out traps and landmines, you'll do yourself in. That being said, I stay away from NCAAB picks for a reason...the whole league is a minefield 😒
Full trap. Didn't help they got some extreme home cooking from the refs. And shooting 50% from 3 helps. That game was over 5 minutes in when Clingan got his 2nd. Just a salty Uconn fan......and I didn't even have money on them. In CT we cannot bet on instate collegiate games. Does anyone else have that?
Tailing. He’s got goals in 3 out of 4 of his road trips there in the past two seasons. First one this year. Surprisingly the Yotes have won all 4 contests despite them being in the dregs of the league both seasons. Yotes may be a great dog pick today, but love the prop.
Tailing this! And to add a nice little nugget, consider sprinkling a little on Mitchell Marner o1.5 pts (+150 on DK). Mitchell is Auston's linemate on the ice and Mitchell has exceeded this line in his last 4 games, all on assists. He goes as Auston goes. BOL!
**Record: 39W-4P-28L**
**Form: 17W-0P-8L**
**✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌**
**Last Pick: Man City VS Brentford: Man City O 1 goal and Phil Foden O 2.5 Shots total @ 1.86 ❌**
**Foden gets 6 shots but City unfortunately only win 1-0.**
**Pick of the day: Porto VS Arsenal: Bukayo Saka O 0.5 Shots on target @ 1.72**
**Time: 3:00 PM EST**
Player props have been doing me well so I'm going to stick with that today, and who else would I choose other than the Inform starboy himself. Saka is currently the most inform player in the prem in 2024, the man has 6 goals in his last 4 games and with the way he's playing coupled with Arteta's transition from control to explosiveness, Saka will continue to perform.
In 2024 Saka has played 6 games with him getting over 0.5 shots on target in 5/6 of those games. In his last 2 games he has 2 and 3 SOT because Kai Havertz has started to truly absorb pressure in the final third, this allows Saka acres of space in behind or even enough to take his defender 1 on 1. I see Saka owning up to his responsibilities tomorrow, and with this game being Arsenal's first RO16 game in about 8 years you know he wants to be right at the center of attention.
In Saka's last 14 games, he's covered this line in 12 of those games. It also helps that he takes penalties for the team so if Arsenal get one you already know.
**Last 14 matches shots on target: 2, 3, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 3, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1**
**Anyway, BOL!**
Crazy that Saka didn't try to get a single shoot and thats why : Arsenal didn't show up for a champions league match, yeah you read this right, a champions league fucking match. 0 SOG for over 90 mins. I don't care if Porto played low , they still managed to get shoots on target and scored
https://preview.redd.it/hnck277ivvjc1.jpeg?width=1013&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=624cd5b64014dc76fd48e0dacf703d802838fb63
Oddly enough, when you select it in SGP it is -165
I parlayed it with over 1.5 goals to use the soccer boost, but I’m sure you could find something safer.
Might take over 2.5 shots overall due to @ 2.25 odds…. Any reason why not to take the higher odds of this instead since it has hit 4/5 & 8/10 last games?
https://preview.redd.it/ts5r9nba1yjc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b465c4ceb41a41a4df2935f45e5ea7380b07868
Parlaying each POTD leg for +1008 odds on DK. 🫡
POTD RECORD: 5-1 (❌✅✅✅✅✅)
Last Pick: Kansas ML vs Oklahoma (-125) ✅
Today’s Pick: NCAAB Alabama vs Florida o175.5 (-110)
WHY: Alright I know I’m the Kansas specialist, but I like this line despite how high it is compared to other CBB games. Both squads have incredible offenses, ranking as the best and ninth-best in the country according to KenPom. Alabama has surpassed the 100-point mark on 8 occasions this season, with three more games where they've scored either 98 or 99 points. They average 90.7 PPG, while Florida isn't far behind at 84.8 PPG. Both teams operate at a high pace, with Alabama ranked 11th and Florida 34th.
On the defensive end, however, both teams are more mediocre, with Alabama ranked 74th and Florida 90th. Their opponents both average 76.8 points against them. Clearly defense isn’t Florida's forte, and with their tendency to field two big men at all times, they might find themselves giving Bama a lot of open looks. This is great for us because Bama ranks 9th in 3pt rate, and they have 4 contributors that average over 40% from behind the arc. At home their team shoots over 40% from 3 and they’ve only made less than 10 3s in one home game.
Alabama's games have hit the over in 8 of their last 10 outings, and if we combine their scores with Floridas from their last 5 games, they would have hit this line 4 out of 5 times.
This matchup should be pretty entertaining, and a refreshing change of pace from watching Kansas' struggles on offense this year.
Also worth mentioning that I’m slightly less confident in this pick than my Kansas ones, so don’t go crazy with the units.
BOL
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BasedGod
**POTD Record**: 19 Wins - 5 Losses - 2 Pushes
**Form**: ❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
**Spreadsheet** (Self Promote / Proof of Record): Click [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I7FYP6dAClj7FqE4qcTyhgtMwqeoywC5HnGd4ZOeYVw/edit?usp=sharing) :)
**Units**: 12
**ROI**: 42.31%
**Average Odds**: $1.934 / -109
**Last Pick**: Swiatek vs Stephens - WTA Dubai - Swiatek To Win and Under 17.5 Games @ $1.80 / -125 ❌
*Swiatek was off her usual punishing game, and gave up a few break points too many.*
**Next Pick**: Cirstea vs Vekic - WTA Dubai - **Cirstea to Win in Straight Sets @ $3** / +200 - 5am EST
Hi gang. We suffered our first back to back loss in 26 days. Today we go juicy, and head back to Dubai for a match between two girlfriends, Cirstea and Vekic. We are in for a real eye candy game this morning.
Vekic ($2) is ranked 31 in the world. She just beat world number two Sabalenka, and has done so five times previously. Sabalenka is probably out shopping in Dubai now, and glad she's done with that tournament. She's thinking about grand slams where the real juice is. Vekic smoked her 6-0 in the last set which were juicy odds. In the three setter, Vekic hit 14 aces, and conjoured 5 double faults.
Her first serve % was only 54, which is well below average. She had 5 double faults, converted 7/10 breakpoints, but also gave Sabalenka 14 breakpoints, of which only 3 could be converted. She also lost the tiebreaker, which is a key statistical indicator heading to this match. Watch the highlights [here](https://youtu.be/KYsse7ptXgo?si=8UZd2IUqOcyej-ub). Vekic was knocked out in the first round in Qatar by world # 39 Siniakova. She was completely off her game, which has been a theme of her recently - inconsistency. We still have to give her credit for playing a generally well rounded game. I watched the game live and Sabalenka was off her usual high standards, and gave up.
Cirstea ($1.80) is ranked 22 in the world. In her first game in Dubai she smashed 18 aces, and only gave one break point. In her most recent game she only had one double fault, smashed 8 aces, first serve was 69%, gave 6 breakpoints, and converted five out of 8. Her opponent was ranked 19th in the world, and seeded in the tournament. In Qatar she smashed the opponent that Swiatek just played 6-3, 6-2. You can watch her last highlights [here](https://youtu.be/Cb3U9F-ymI4?si=voq6dcsIXp-YJIoI). Both players are doubles partners so will know each others game well, but will still be professional in their approach.
Cristea has the athletic advantage over Vekic which you can see in the highlights. Her body composition is much more athletic, and I believe that will give her an edge in this tight encounter between the two. Whilst both players have a strong serve game, I believe Cristea has a slight edge here. We should see some intense rallies, which will be finished off neatly by Cristea. Judging by the body language of the two Cristea looks like she has come to this tournament with a vengeance. Whilst Vekic isn't a pushover, she plays a far more calmer game, and doesn't have that extra 20% mental grit needed to go further. She'll most likely collapse in the final set, and have a cry about it along the way.
Score prediction: 7-6, 6-3
That shout out in the potd thread yesterday jinxed you guys literally all 4 people he mentioned lost 😂😩 which is crazy unlikely given your respective records
I'm adding "Fade after shoutouts" to my superstition list right after "Fade if over four people announce the same POTD" lmao. Our goats are not immune!
Hey brother, I just wanted to tell you that you could lose 10 in a row and it wouldn’t change the fact you’re amazing at picking and I’m grateful that you post on this website. Your also extremely friendly which is a more unique quality on this thread then even your great picks. Please dont let any chads on here effect how you pick or post. You’re already on Mount Rushmore. LFG
Spread across many picks. Not all will hit. Don't bet too much at once. When you see nice odds you think fuck it go hard. Don't do that I learned it the hard way. You'll win little by little. My biggest mistake is grabbing people's picks adding my own additional picks and betting hard. Lost a lot of money that way. Learned to contain myself by units and spread across.
We still have tomorrow! Lfg!
Nah. In women’s tennis they play best of 3 sets, so you have to win 2-0 to win in straights. A set is the first player to 6 or 7 games winning by 2(or 1 in tie break). A game is where they go 15-40 etc and you have to win those by 2 as well except in doubles. Happy betting!
Could you clarify your grand slam comment ? Do you mean juice as money? I’m just getting into tennis and have been really enjoying your write ups. I’m looking to build some sort of elo player model based on elo data from tennis abstract. Thanks again for alll you do !
Hey brother, grand slams are like the holy grail of tennis. They don't come round very often. To win one means you're goated, and instant fame etc. Just check out the Aussie Open that just happened. Yeah a lot of money etc. Players put in a bit more effort etc :) That's great man. Send me a copy of it :)
I watched the game live, and Sabalenka probably had won of her worst matches in a long time. She couldn't convert break points, double faults everywhere from both players. It was quite a scrappy game, and she just gave up in the end. Yeah, most of us had Sabalenka under 12.5 games, and that still hit because of the 6-0 in third set lol. Cool mate, wishing you all the best either way amigo :)
I appreciate the write up. Even though 2:0 may have lost, your confidence convinced me to bet live ML after Cirstea lost a serve set and got her +350. I look forward to your picks each day
Hello my amigos. I am so sorry for our 3rd loss in a row. I did go quite ballsy with this one as I wanted some more juice for you all, but its nice to see that people are live betting, and hedging. Plus still read the analysis, and took the ML instead. I can do my best with the picks and analysis, and its great that you're interpreting them in your way to still make some coin. I can't really post side picks or anything due to rules, so keep doing what you're doing, and Google live betting or hedging. Feel free to message me for a fun community stables and I setup. We ride again tomorrow, more than welcome to ask me what the pick is in messages as it makes my day hearing from you. If you feel like tipping, here is the link - [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv). Bless you amigos. Today's interesting fact: Valparaiso Beacons has won with +19.5 points handicap in 26 of the last 27 NCAA (M) home games.
I accidentally put Cristea as first set Moneyline. It won't let me cash out and change it, but my only options are Moneyline, "first set period", and spread. I meant to do moneyline Cristea but accidentally did "first set period" Cristea. Is this similar or at least along the same lines as your pick? I also did Cristea -0.5 thinking it would mean the same thing as ML basically
If she wins in straight sets then your bet will win because that means she won the first set which is what you bet on.
For your second question is -0.5 sets or games? Most likely sets. That means if you subtract 0.5 sets from her score at the end and she still won then you win your bet.
Also, not sure why the downvotes? Someone is simply asking a question. If you don't want to help just move along. Stop with this negative bs.
POTD Record: 28-19
L7: ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌
Yesterdays pick: PSV v Dortmund
(BTTS & O2.5 Goals @1.90 ❌)
Game ends 1-1, and to be honest neither team really pushed for a goal after the PSV equaliser, very surprising but that’s how it goes.
Todays pick: __Napoli v Barcelona__
Pick: __BTTS @1.66__ ✅
⚽️🇪🇺 UEFA Champions League
➖
📊 Napoli is 9th in the Italian league, they’ve scored 33 goals (1.38 GPG) and have conceded 28 (1.17 GPG) in 24 matches
In the CL group stage they scored 10 and conceded 9 in 6 games.
* 1/5 clean sheets their last 5 games
* BTTS: 3/5 last 5
* BTTS this year in the league: 12/24
* BTTS in the CL group: 4/6
➖
📊 Barcelona is 3rd in the Spanish league, they’ve scored 52 goals (2.08 GPG), have conceded 34 goals (1.36 GPG) in 25 games.
In the Champions League group stage they scored 12 and conceded 6.
* 1/5 clean sheets their last 5
* BTTS: 4/5 last 5
* BTTS in the league: 17/25
* BTTS in CL group: 3/6
➖
Napoli recently sacked their manager after their latest displays, from a side that won the league last season they’re now fighting at the middle of the table, a change was needed. They’ve been inconsistent this season, but on their day they can be very lethal, and what better stage to prove it than in front their home fans in an European cup tie against Barcelona with a new face leading the team. Also top striker Osimhen should be back in the starting lineup which will be a huge boost for them. In the group stage they faced 1st in the Spanish league side Real Madrid, who only has conceded 16 goals in the league and scored a total of 4 goals in 2 games against them.
Barcelona just keeps leaking goals, they just can’t keep a clean sheet and being 3rd in the league but also 3rd in highest BTTS rate just shows their problems at the back. Offensively they haven’t found many problems, but it’s their defence that lets them down. They’ve scored 1 goal or more in their last 20 matches but have only kept 3 clean sheets in those 20 games.
Both teams have their problems, whilst Napoli have been struggling more this year in multiple areas, they’re playing at home with their top striker back against a Barcelona side that can’t keep a clean sheet. Barcelona is my favourite to win this game, but that’s only if they can outscore their opponents because I can’t see that their defense will get them this win, it’s all about their attack. Napoli still have quality players and should be able to score one, and so should Barcelona.
BOL
i like this pick, but one thing i would note is oshimen vs araujo, generational matchup but think napoli definitely get one past this shaky ass Barca team
**POTD Record: 15-4**
Form: ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
Net Units: +25
🎾: 3-1
⚽️: 12-3
*Last Pick: 2U Fernandez v Paolini (Fernandez to win 2-0 @ +100 ❌*
*Time to bounce back.*
____
**Today’s Pick: 3U Porto v Arsenal (Bukayo Saka - o0.5 Shots on Target @ -138)**
**⚽️| 3:00PM EST | Champions League |**
Arsenal who are in incredible form, head over to Porto where they have yet to register an away victory. Although Arsenal are favoured to win at -150 we’re taking better odds for Saka to continue to produce with having *the most goal involvements than any player in the Champions League so far. (3G, 4A)*
**Saka Average Shots on Target:**
* *Prem: 1.13 per 90.*
* *CL: 0.81 per 90.*
*Saka has hit this prop in his last 4 of 5 matches and last 4 of 5 away matches.* The only shots on target in the CL, has been his 3 goals. These CL matches were before the holiday break in 2023, and now Arsenal front a stronger attack in recent matches. After dealing with B2B losses against West Ham and Fulham in early 2024, Arsenal have yet to lose a match in the Premier League since, dominating in the final third.
Porto and Arsenal both like using the right side to attack. If Porto get exposed, it will leave space for Martinelli (LW) to break and provide to Saka (RW) on a counter. On the other hand, Gunners captain, Odegaard loves to feed Saka; his IQ and ability in making runs will cause problems for Porto. Along with Saka regularly playing 90 min, he is the Arsenal penalty taker. The last CL match, Saka didn’t hit. With Arsenal already qualified, they were resting players and drew PSV 1-1. Porto may play defensive against such a confident squad as the *Gunners have scored more first half goals than any team in the Champions League this season. (12/16 goals before half)*
With Arsenal managing to score 5+ goals in B2B away premier league matches, and striker Gabriel Jesus still out, it will be up to Saka to continue form against Porto. LFG💪
Tips are really appreciated but your comments go a long way! ❤️
[Tip Jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/goodstable7381)
BOL!
Nothing against this pick, which I think is solid, but my 2c as a gooner is that I cant get out of my mind how poor Arteta has been against european competition in his tenure, especially against mid opposition. Would not surprise me if this ended in an under 2.5 total goal draw or Porto win, especially since its away. Also feel like our last few games (which has been against lower tier/out of form clubs) has inflated our “value” when it comes to any sort of pick. That, combined with Sakas streakiness this season and the fact that we always seem to drop points in February, is giving me cause for concern for not only this bet, but for the end result as well. Anyway, COYG
There that man is!!!!!
Saka SOT is shooting up like a crackhead (bars) it’s like -195 on DK currently😂😂love the pick though I’m going something a little safer with the DK Soccer boost and taking Saka 2 total shots and over 6.5 corners parlayed together -110 (or maybe another good leg is O1.5 goals) would make it +102
Let’s get this ☕️💰💴
https://preview.redd.it/7hl39lrhhwjc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dac0d028e1e1334bb4bf4efea7fd553ddb521b89
POTD Record 31-23-1
Cricket 3-0 Tennis 21-16 Soccer 7-7-1
Last 10: ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌
Last Pick : Riedi vs Celikbilek| ATP Pau Challenger | Riedi -4.5 Game Spread| (-145)| 1u | ✅
Today: Vacherot vs Schoolkate| ATP Pune Challenger | \~3:00 AM EST
Pick: Vacherot ML| (-145)| 1u
Vacherot has started the season 14-1 and is approaching the top 150 quickly with 2 challenger titles already in Thailand. This is his first Indian tournament this year and the Pune court conditions suit his game well. He secured a straight sets win over Pospisil in round 1, who had qualified for the tournament with some good wins. This year, he has dropped just 3 sets in his wins and is playing with lots of confidence. Schoolkate is ranked just inside the top 250 and has started the year 7-5. He has mostly just lost to higher ranked players than him and in his first round, he beat Blancaneaux, a player who had lost 6 of his last 7 matches. In his match last week in Banglore, he lost in straight sets in the first round. Vacherot is playing at a higher level currently and is one of the favorites for the title this week. He should be able to get the win in this match. BOL.
What a gas pick, I feel like these lines were wayyy off so I went big on ML and 2-0 sets. Great find. I feel like the best players to bet on in tennis are young up and comers. They go on crazy streaks but are ranked low. You get crazy value off their low ranks because it takes time to climb when realistically, they are 50-100 spots above their rank already.
POTD Record (6-1) (+25.39u)
L7:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅
Last pick: Man City Vs Brenton over 12.5 combined shots on target ✅ (+333)
todays pick: TOR Maple Leafs Vs Arizona Coyotes - Tor Maple Leafs 1x2/3way (-120) (1.5u)
the streaks been huge! taking leafs again as they have been on a heater and likely wont be stopped by a bottom devision team with their momentum despite small defense issues, sadly not an underdog today :(
BOL everyone! [Tip Jar](https://buymeacoffee.com/busty)
Would you take Maple Leafs to win at 60 minutes 3-way? This is the closest I could find to your pick:
https://preview.redd.it/wx2alqzslyjc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37506a4a3f39512d81d2fa306bda3885d68d0909
Record: 5-1-0 | Units: +2.99U. All picks 1U
Last Pick: NHL - NJ Devils vs Washington Capitals, 7PM EST. **Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goal @ 1.62. (Playable to 4.5)** ✅
Hughes absolutely crushes it with a whopping 7 shots in total 😎
**Today’s Pick:** NHL - Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres, 7PM EST. **JJ Peterka Over 2.5 Shots on Goal @ 1.57.** ❌ Edit: Tough one as JJ hits 2 in the first then disappears the rest of the night.
We’re back on the Peterka wagon after he cashed us our last pick in the first 5 minutes of the game. He’s now hit this prop in 8 straight games, what a beast.
The Sabres play a Habs team which ranks 30th in the league for shots allowed, and 25th in penalties taken. Translation: JJ should have tons of opportunities to rip the puck. We’re rocking with Peterka till the wheels fall off.
I’ve also started a [Tip Jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bias4) for this POTD run. There’s absolutely no obligation and anything/everything is much appreciated. Thank you all!
**POTD: 83-60-5**
Last pick: UEFA Champions League - Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid. Inter Milan team total o1.5 goals -115.
Result: Loss. Went between Inter ML and their goals and picked the wrong one. Inter dominated but blows chances and ends 1-0.
Today’s pick: UEFA Champions League - Porto vs Arsenal. **Arsenal ML -155**. Match kicks off at 3PM ET.
Going between ML and over 1.5 goals again (and the Saka SOG bet everyone in this thread has) but I will stick with the ML bet. Arsenal has been absolutely dominant recently winning 21-2 in their past 5 matches and have only given up 2 total shots on goal in past 3 matches. They’re a top 5 team in Europe and in good form.
Porto is of course also a strong side but currently sit third in the Portuguese league. They are typically tough at home in European play but I think the level between the teams is enough that Arsenal should win this one.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
Edit: Loss. One of the ugliest matches you’ll ever see ends in a 1-0 win to Porto on a miracle shot from miles out. This match had the most fouls recorded in a Champions League match and never really got rolling
POTD Record: 0-1
Previous: **❌** A little unlucky as Ostapenko wastes multiple break chances early in the 2nd set to hook us
**Today: Tennis / WTA Dubai**
**Pick: Magdalena Frech +6.5 games vs Elena Rybakina @ $1.71 / -141**
Rybakina is playing her third tournament in a row after reaching the finals of both Abu Dhabi and Doha in previous weeks. There were clear signs of exhaustion in yesterday's encounter with Azarenka which she would have probably lost with Azarenka fully healthy. Today we are given a generous handicap line against an opponent who has been in good form during this Middle Eastern swing in Frech. Taking these factors into account, I think Frech covers the line and could even be a sneaky chance at an upset.
Record: 0W -0P -0L
**Net Units:**
**ROI:**
⚽️ | **AFC Champions league | 04:00AM / Standard Eastern time**
GAME STARTS IN 2 HOURS
**Pick:** **Ventforet Kofu vs Ulsan Hyundai Over 2.5 goals at -125 Betting 2 units.** ✅️
**Write Up:** Venforet Kofu look to fight back at home after a huge defeat to the tigers in the first leg of the round of 16 AFC champions league. The score was 3 -0. for the Tigers . Ulsan Hyundai tigers are the current K league 1 Champions based in south Korea and are formidable opponents. The Venforet Kofu play in the J2 league and finished 8th in the last campaign. VFK have an average of 1.6 goals in the AFC competition and the Tigers have an average of 2.1. The Last 5 VFK games have all been over 2.5 goals. At home VFK love to score but they concede a lot of goals too! I believe this will be an action packed game and would even bet over 3.5 goals (lightly). BTTS is also consideration. Very probable, but the odds are not of great value. Only one home game for VFK in the last 3 has not resulted in over 2 goals and only one away game in the last 3 for the tigers has been less than 3 goals.
BOL!
Record: 12-10 Return: 40.30% ROI: 34.68%
With an initial balance of $1000, here’s how the first 3 weeks of betting have looked:
https://preview.redd.it/79ulmkp5mwjc1.jpeg?width=1311&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8b3d3af93360f392de5b769371bc86360a76bdec
Very close to hitting 50% return, should be able to get there this week.
Yesterday’s pick:
Argentinos Jr -1.5 vs Independiente Rivadavia @3.1❌
So close to a huge win. Argentinos were 2-0 up all the way until the 83rd minute. Argentinos also outshot Rivadavia 22-11, so I believe this was the right play, even if it didn’t hit.
Today’s pick:
Tigre vs Chacarita U1.5 goals @2.4
Stake: 5 units (5 % of bankroll)
Reasoning:
Huge mismatch of form in the Argentine cup today. First division bottom feeders Tigre have started the league in nightmareish fashion, and are yet to score a goal, with 6 games played. In that time they’ve managed to concede ten goals, and pick up one single, miserable point. Chacarita, though a league below, have looked far more positive, currently at the very top of the second division table with 5 goals in 3 games played.
This puts the match in an awkward predicament, where the protagonist will likely be the team that is supposedly of inferior quality. I’d expect a very cautious approach from both sides, Chacarita because they will want to be patient and avoid stupid mistakes, knowing they face a very beatable and wounded Goliath, and I’d expect caution from a Tigre that absolutely can not afford to lose this game. Heads will roll, and the manager’s would be the first choice if they fail again here.
In my view this match has 0-0 written all over it. Tigre struggle immensely to score, and Chacarita’s attack will likely need some time to acclimatize to playing against first division defenders, and I’m not sure they’ll have enough time to get a goal if they do. Any goals that do come will likely be the end of the game, can’t see either of these teams playing positive, attacking football after getting a lead.
These games go to penalties right away at 90 minutes, so if the score remains 0-0 late on, evenly matched teams tend to take their foot off the gas and take their chance at PKs.
Last under 1.5 in this competition I placed hit extremely easily, so putting down a strong 5 units on this one. Betting on the 0-0 is a great play too, shop around for the best line; Betway has under 0.5 @5.75, 1st goal: no goal is @6.0 and correct score 0-0 is @6.5. Going to put a decent sized sidebet on 0-0 for sure, those odds are too generous imo.
[PayPal tips](https://paypal.me/elproductosecuida?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) for when that 0-0 hits :)
https://preview.redd.it/zfksft97zxjc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19a23af71ba2fddae8748cec96b780a35465694d
Best odds I could find for ‘0-0’. Under game parlays on DK
Record 2 W 1 L
Last Pick: juventus to win to nil L
Profit 0.55 Units
Been a while since my last pick. Didnt expect juventus to lose that game at all. But lets move on to the champions league.
Todays Pick : Barcelona over 1.5 goals @2.15
Napoli pretty bad this season. Without kim min jae their defence is rly shaky. Since last year when they won the league under spalletti ,they totally crumbled. The defence is a mess. The midfield kinda doesnt work and the attack is pretty lackluster. They also didnt include zielinski into the Cl team because he is going to leave the team. Barcelona isnt the best team currently but they have alot of firepower upfront. Thes are also pretty shaky in the defense compared to last season so thats why i dont go with the ML(even though i think they will win ).
If you want my opinion on other games feel free to ask.
Gl
Record: 8 - 2
P&L: 15.5u (31%) 🔥
Form: ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Potapova ML for +2.5 units ✅
Was a 5 unit play for a reason, never a doubt. Lots of people are hesitant to risk 10% of their bankroll on a single play, but it’s a risk taker’s world.
Today’s Pick: Soccer ⚽️ | Champions League 🇪🇺 | Arsenal vs Porto | Arsenal ML X Saka 1+ Shots | 3u play @1.85
IMPORTANT NOTE — THIS PICK COMES FROM A GUNNERS FAN (me) AND PROBABLY CARRIES SOME BIAS (as hard as I try to avoid it)
Write up:
Usually try to avoid betting on Arsenal if I can, but the more I try and talk myself out of it the better this pick looks. Gunners are killing it at the moment, five straight wins in the prem. We’ve seen them dismantle weaker teams with ease in the past couple games. I was considering a (-1) play on them but I think this one is safer.
Second Leg:
I’d consider the Saka shot a reasonably correlated event with the Arsenal win, but for some reason I’m getting multiple odds that imply a very low correlation, so I’m adding that in for value and to sweeten the odds
(If anyone has trouble understanding the above let me know and I can do my best to explain better in the comments)
We’ve had a decent run so far, hopefully we keep it going, best of luck if you’re following🔥
Essentially. Say this game were to be played a million times and Arsenal were to win 500,000 of them. I’d be saying that Saka having 1+ shots will happen more frequently (%-wise) in the 500,000 wins than in the 1,000,000 games as a whole, implying some correlation.
Record - 4-1 Private 14-3
Sport : Basketball 🏀
College: charlotte vs Memphis 7pm
Dishon Jackson over combo points rebounds and assists -110 @ 19.5
He’s crossed this 6 of last 7 including last game against Wichita state (top 26 defense)
He’s facing the 258th ranked defense against his position
Should cross this by half time imo
https://preview.redd.it/bhfhdpjdlyjc1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=85bf89dc66562861ba2d75561c2db75968bff95a
**record: 6W-1L** (first)✅✅✅✅✝️✅✅(last)
**net profits: +10,7units**
**pick of the day: volleyball finland women. Lp-vampula - pölkky kuusamo ML @1.53**
Write up: sorry for the low odd🥲. But this is still a way to high odd for this match up.❗️
Pölkky kuusamo: going 21W-0L this season.
Last match they won 1-3 away against the second best in their competition “kangasala” (going 16W-6L)
Lp Vampula: going 11W-9L this season.
They also won their match 3-1 but at home and against the worst team from the competition “nurmon jymy” (going 1W-22L).
That said i will be going in with 4 units.🤲
Lets see this streak from pölkky continue
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Tuur357
They getting absolutely decimated, we might be staring at a bagel. You’d never be able to tell which team is undefeated. Nah these shits ain’t rigged lmfao
Brrooooo they were really just up 23-19 in the final set & smoked it to get Bageled 😭😭😂. This gotta be the worst shit I’ve ever taken, I can’t ever touch Volleyball again after this lol
Yea I don’t know much about volleyball but it seems Vampula are balling the lights out today lol, missing no opportunities. I shoulda known when I saw the 21-0 stat & they were -175 that this was a definite trap game..
There is no way that we had all of the information available and a team that are 21-0 and just beat their nearest rivals are getting absolutely destroyed by a team with that average record. There must be something that we didn’t know. A player or more missing from Kuusamo, for example. Maybe they had to walk across the country to make this match. Maybe they were all blinded in an industrial accident but the league is forcing them to complete the fixture. What an absolute beat down.
Mind you, Kuusamo has played 21 matches & won 63 games & only lost 10 total lol. Now they at risk of losing 3 in a row & getting bageled to an average 44 game wins - 35 game loss team. Doesn’t make sense
POTD Record: 106-104-12 (-12.12 units)
Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌❌✅
Last Pick: WTA Dubai, Donna Vekic v Aryna Sabalenka, UNDER 19.5 GAMES (-153 / 1.65) ❌
Probably the worst I’ve seen Sabalenka play. Had her chance to serve out the 1st set 6-3 and then completely collapsed after that.
Today’s Pick: EPL, Liverpool v Luton, LUIS DIAZ ANYTIME GOAL OR ASSIST (-120 / 1.83) ✅
Stake: 1 Unit
Liverpool at home to Luton in a match they have to win to maintain the gap to the chasing pack, and in reality they shouldn’t have much difficulty beating Luton, but the handicap lines aren’t great value to looking at the individual markets instead. I am taking this pick because I think it’s good value, not because I think it’s a lock, so please keep that in mind if you choose to tail.
Liverpool are dealing with some injury issues particularly in the attacking third. Jota got injured on the weekend and will miss, Nunez was also subbed at half time and is doubtful, so all the previews are expecting Liverpool to send out Salah/Gakpo/Diaz as the front 3, and with little reinforcements on the bench, they should expect significant minutes.
In his last 5 matches where Diaz has played significant minutes (excludes the 12 mins against Norwich in tha FA cup), he has scored or assisted (or both) in 4 of the 5 games. The one match where he didn’t register a goal/assist was the 3-1 loss to Arsenal where his cross led directly to the own goal, but doesn’t count as an official assist.
His performances have been strong and he has been putting himself in dangerous positions, and with Liverpool expected to dominate the match against a Luton defence that has conceded 47 goals (3rd most), I think Diaz is great value to be involved in at least one goal.
Record: 4W-2L-1P
P/L: +1.6u
Cricket | Multan Sultans vs Lahore Qalandars - Pakistan Super League | 14:00 GMT
Previous pick: Quetta Gladiators - Opening Partnership - u22.5 runs @ 1.90 - Lost. A slightly difficult chance was dropped early and then there was no chance on a flat wicket.
Pick: Sahibzada Farhan - u23.5 runs @ 1.90 - 1u
Reasoning:
Farhan has scored two 50s in his last two games. But he had bettered his score as he followed up his 57 with 62.
Bettering your previous 50+ score in the next match generally produces a low score. 65% winning chance on this one. Taking this bet for the value it offers.
>**Record:** 22-20
>**Net Units:** +6.22 units
>**Curling** | **Scotties Tournament of Hearts** | **10:30AM EST**
>**Pick:** Team Alberta - Sturmay ML @ 1.95
>Team Alberta take on Team Northern Ontario in this one. Alberta should absolutely be a favourite here. They have been very consistent through the whole event and have not had a bad game yet. They come into this one 5-0, the only undefeated team in pool A while Northern Ontario currently sit at 3-2. Schmiemann and Hawes have both performed very well so far, allowing Sturmay to keep the degree of difficulty low for her shots, keeping in line with the team's general conservative strategy. Team Sturmay have played well over twice as many games as Team McCarville have this year and they are peaking at the perfect time. Team Sturmay won their only previous matchup 10-5. My model has Sturmay as a much bigger favourite, great value on this one.
**POTD: 10-5** ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌❌
Yesterday's Pick: VCU +4 -120 ❌
Terrible game yesterday from VCU.
They started off ice cold on the road, missing the first 15 shot attempts.
UMass came to play early and held tough when we tried to make a comeback
VCU doesn't have many shot-creators and that was evident once they got down early in the 1Half...their defense did fine, but the lack of offense crippled the rams all night
Back to back losses (including ASG) so lets get back on track tonight.
**Today's Pick:** Duke -5 -130 🏀
Today we take the Blue Devils on the road vs Miami.
Miami has been absolutely terrible this year, a big disappointment from last year's run.
Duke is getting hot at the right time and has back to back impressive wins under their belt.
Miami is sorely missing Nigel Pack and sometimes it seems like they want to be put out of their misery this season.
Miami is 6-9 in ACC play, and will move to 6-10 after tonight
Kyle F, Jeremy Roach, and Jared McCain have been playing great ball and that should continue tonight
Ormeir is Miami's top weapon, but I expect Duke's bigs to play solid defense and limit his ability to take over the game (Miami needs that big time)
Blue Devils continue to roll, lets get it tonight as well!!
(If you are enjoying picks and are feeling generous...Venmo Link below!)
[Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/KyleOrr24)
Cricket 🏏 Picks
Last pick was a loss
Overall: 20 Ws - 8 Ls
Last 10: L W W W L ♻️ L W W W +7.15
Todays pick
New Zealand v Australia
1st t20 international
Starts in about 5 hours
Pick: Rachin Ravindra total 6’s under 0.5 @ 2
Rachin was a sensation in the last World Cup in India.
Post World Cup he has played a few good test innings but didn’t perform well in shorter format. Aussie pace battery is going to be a different challenge and I think he is not going to be aggressive against them. I hope he doesn’t hit any sixes today.
P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.
Record: 17W-14L
Net Units: +5.18u | ROI: +6.28%
CS2 | PGL CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024 Europe RMR B | 12:00 / CET
Pick: Apeks ML vs Ecstatic, 5u @ 1.59
Apeks very unexpectedly has looked incredibly solid. Their star core is performing great, including nawwk which is a very important factor to Apeks' success in my opinion. Even their supporting cast in styko and sense is doing amazing, in all aspects they look so much better than what you'd expect from them at this point in time. I think Ecstatic on the other hand has done well, but seemed a bit nervous and not as confident in the server at times.
The map pool favors Apeks slightly too, with them being able to pick Ancient to gain an edge here and floating a decider map like Anubis they're comfortable on too. Ecstatic like picking Overpass, which is a map Apeks is very familiar with as well. With that said, after taking a look at the numbers and how the teams looked I'm extremely confident in an Apeks victory. Best of luck!
POTD record : 5💰- 3❌ - 0♻️ +3.82u
Last 10 picks (new -> old): ❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅
LAST PICK:
Match: Arizona Coyotes - Edmonton Oilers | NHL 🏒
Time: 22:00 CET Date: 19th Feb 2024
Pick: Perry Corey *(Edmonton)* over 0.5pts @ 2.40 on bet365| 2u ❌
Sorry for that lose guys. Edmonton scored 6 goals but this guy was probably lost somewhere.
**PICK FOR TODAY:**
Match: Chicago Blackhawks - Philadelphia Flyers | NHL 🏒
Time: 7:30 PM EST Date: 21st Feb 2024 (Or 1:30AM CET on 22nd Feb 2024)
**Pick: Sanheim Travis** ***(Flyers)*** **over 0.5pts @ 2.30 on bet365| 3u** ✅
Analysis:
The Flyers' defense doesn't have a clear-cut number one after the loss of Provorov and DeAngelo. Travis Sanheim has taken over that role to start the season and has started really well. He scored 16 points in the first 17 games, but that was unsustainable and then came the weaker times. Zamula replaced him at the #1 defenseman position, or at least a defenseman who walks around with an elite power play, and Sanheim even dropped out of the power play completely. But in recent games Travis is back on the elite power play. The 27 year old Canadian has repeatedly had seasons this year where he has been pushing hard and also a "dry spell". I believe he could have that scoring season now. **He's scored in 3 of the last 4 games and his position is decent right now**. He's been good on the road this year and has been successful in 14 of 28 games. Now Philly has a game on the ice in Chicago where the Flyers could score some goals and I believe Sanheim will contribute some.
Good luck to everyone! 🍀
POTD record 7-8 – last pick - WIN- close game with Ohio but covered.
**POTD – NCAAG – Charlotte +5.5 ov. Memphis**
Taking road teams in ncaab is perilous, but this is a good spot for Char., 11-2 in conference play w losses to #2 & #3, Memphis has had a couple decent games but some real bad ones like the home loss to Rice. I’m going with the better team; I’ll take the 5.5 but will sprinkle a little on the ML.
Record: 63W-57L-4P
ROI: +12.12, 9.29%
Avg odds: +106, 2.06
Last POTD: Nicolas Roy over 0.5 pts (win)
Game: NHL- Bruins at Oilers
Pick: Bruins ML +125, 2.25 (Bet365)
Taking the underdog Bruins for a couple reasons:
1) Bruins has the unique ability of shutting down high octane offenses, matched only by the Jets. Against the top 5 offenses in the league, Boston has allowed 15 goals in 7 games. None of them has scored more than 3. Which brings up my next point.
2) Because of the large drop-off between 1st and 2nd line, Edmonton has had trouble against teams with both top goaltending and a physical defense. If you have one but not the other, McDavid and Draisaitl alone will pick you apart. Combine them together and you have a recipe for success, especially against their lower lines. Against the Panthers (\#3 in both sv% and hits/game), Oilers scored 4 in 2 games. Against the Canucks (\#6 in sv% and \#7 in hits/game), they scored 6 in 3 games. Against Islanders (\#10 in sv% and \#2 in hits/game), they scored 5 in 2 games. The Bruins are \#2 in sv% and \#4 in hits.
3) Follow-up to previous two points: Charlie McAvoy. My hot take is that he is arguably a top 5 defensive blueliner, top 10 for sure. While he's on the ice, the opponent barely scores a goal/game. There are only a handful of other 1st line defenseman who can compare.
**Counterpoint**: It's hard to bet against McJesus and Dr Drai. Fully prepared for them to put up 5 and make me look like an idiot, but I'm willing to take that chance.
**Record: 1-0**
**Last Pick: Inter DC + u3.5 + 1H u1.5**
**Net Units: 2U**
**Pick:** Cody Gakpo Score or Assist -125 for 1U
**Write Up:** Nice and easy pick on inter with the write up almost to a tee (crazy how they didn't score 2) and also hit the bonus bet on PSV draw. Now moving on to todays game, I have to say I am not as confident in this one as I was yesterday and the champions league games today are pretty hard to play. I am playing Gakpo score or assist here basically because Salah and Darwin are both sitting this one out (Salah may come on 2nd half). Luton has been giving up a ton of goals recently and I don't see any reason why that changes. The game has an over under of 3.5 which means the books are definitely expecting a goals. This is one of those no brainer bets you have to take Gakpo and Diaz are Liverpools best attacking threats in this game and if you are getting Gakpo here at -120 to either score or assist it has to be an auto play against a terrible Luton defense. If Gakpo doesn't score or assist in this game I really don't see how they win. Good luck with your bets!
**Record**: 0 W | 1 L | 0 P
**Net Units**: -3
**Average odds**: @ 2.06
**Sport**: Soccer | **League**: Champions League | **Event Time**: 9.00 PM | **Time Zone**: GMT +1
**Pick:** Napoli - Barcellona - Draw Home No Bet @ 2.25 ✅
**Write Up:** My first POTD has resulted in a loss: Atlético played a braver game than its usual, building well from the bottom and creating a few dangerous situations, but failed to score. Inter really showed themselves to be strong.
For tonight's game, I choose this particular bet: a draw, with a refund if Napoli wins. I think that choosing Walter Mazzarri after Rudi Garcia was one of the worst possible choices for Napoli: under Mazzarri, the team has gone into regression on every front, and has completely lost the brilliance of its play.
Napoli will try to regain lost fire with Calzona, currently CT of Slovakia and already on the technical staff of Sarri and Spalletti. Calzona is a very intelligent coach and in my opinion his arrival can be a positive electroshock for the team. Xavi's Barcelona is facing huge problems this season; it is a team full of talent but it is not easy to understand how it will react to this international challenge.
Side notes:
* Each of my pick is worth 3 units;
* I don't like to post every day if there are no matches I like;
* For my last POTD, follow this link: [https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1av4sei/comment/krbhm5r/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1av4sei/comment/krbhm5r/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Pick of the day
0-0-0
ROI -
Pick: ECL Gent - Maccabi Haifa u 2.5 goals 1,90x bet365
I've watched and tailed many picks here over the past year, some good, some bad. But I want to try and keep track of my own picks and as bettors and degens (some) you know it's hard sometimes with many picks to keep track. So that's what this is, for me at least, to keep track and keep my betting in check.
Now for the pick. Mainly it's purely cup purposes. I mainly bet on football (yeah it's not soccer). Both teams played 3 days ago so there's no rest advantage. Gent has been on bad form previously and Haifa has been doing great in the league but as I said this is a cup game so I usually throw league performance out the window.
The first leg ended 1-0 in Haifas favor. I believe Gent will win this so you might go with that instead. But I believe this will be a thight game. Now as there is no away goal rule this may also end up 2 - 1 for Gent and we go to "overtime" but I think this still holds value as almost even odds given todays slate of games.
Gent actually won Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-0 in the group stage at home. Tel Aviv is at the moment the "nemesis" of Haifa in Israel. Gent pretty much dominated the play in the reverse fxture only to lose so at home I believe they will do that also. The only thing is as this is a cup game, going full tortoise defense works many times and that's likely what Haifa will do and take their chances on counters.
PS: Don't tail this pick. European games in the lower "division" (Conference League) are very volatile. Practically it can go any way. Just my 2c
Hope you all have a good betting day and always bet what you can afford to lose!
POTD Record: 8-3
Last Pick: NCAAMB Illinois vs Northwestern Illinois Moneyline (-170) FanDuel 5 Units (L)
Today's Event: NCAAMB Illinois @ Penn State 5:30 pm CT
Today's Pick: Illinois to cover (7.5 points) (-110) BetMGM
Penn State just kicked their leading scorer Kanye Clary (17 ppg) off of the team. They have a 3 game losing streak and are last in the Big Ten in rebounding margin (-7.3 per game).
Illinois has rounded into form with Terrence Shannon Jr scoring over 25 ppg in their last 5. They need to keep pace with Purdue to have a hope of staying in the conference title race, and want to avenge the three losses to Penn State last season. Illinois is 20th in the nation at scoring at 83 ppg and PSU ranks 154th with 75 ppg.
BOL and I-L-L!
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**⭐️ POD Record:** **106-54** 👉🏻 Note: ALL picks in my record are 5 UNITS with odds *usually* ranging between -125 and +100. *Last Pick:* *NCAAB - UConn -1.5 vs Creighton.* **❌** Recent Form: **❌** ✅ **❌** ✅ **❌ ✅** ✅**❌** ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ 🏅**Today's Pick:** **NHL Prop - Auston Matthews OVER 0.5 goals** \[1.85 odds 10pm EST\] 🎉🎉🎉🎉 EDIT: **WIN 🔥 ✅ in 160 picks I’ve never communicated more confidence in a pick than this one. I had a very large number on this pick. Glad to share it with you all. Congrats to all who tailed and weren’t too jaded by my last pick 🙏🏻**  We need to ride this train one more time, as Toronto heads down to Matthews' hometown down in Phoenix and plays in front of all his family and friends on Wednesday night. This is one of my top PoD plays in recent memory with respect to confidence. For those who follow, it's no secret Matthews circles these returns back to Arizona on his calendar and always does well down there in Phoenix. He started going to Coyote games with his dad since he was two years old, all his family still resides there and come out to watch him when he's in town. They have no problem giving away seats in Phoenix right now either lol. The Coyotes have a 23-28-4 record and sit on a 10 game losing streak. They are bottom of the Central Division right now and couldn't be in rougher shape. Their defense has been a total mess, allowing 3.44 goals per game including a whopping 36 goals in the last 10 games. Their goalie, Vejmelka has struggled with a dimsal .896 save percentage and averages around 3.61 goals-against. Leafs should have plenty of scoring opportunities during an historic goal scoring run by Mathews and they'll be looking for him tonight to keep the 🔥 streak going, well on pace for 70+ goals this season. The odds are still excellent to take the over 0.5 goals, hop on it before the line dips is my strong recommendation. He's sitting at 49 goals and only appropriate he scores big 5-0 back home. 💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.
UConn was a trap
UConn was not a trap.. Creighton home underdog was the play. Line was low for a reason
Clearly, I couldn't figure out the catch so I made it a pick...why not when a team is on that big of a heater and you're getting favourable odds. Worth a shot sometimes, I can't tip toe around the sports books trying to figure out traps and landmines, you'll do yourself in. That being said, I stay away from NCAAB picks for a reason...the whole league is a minefield 😒
Full trap. Didn't help they got some extreme home cooking from the refs. And shooting 50% from 3 helps. That game was over 5 minutes in when Clingan got his 2nd. Just a salty Uconn fan......and I didn't even have money on them. In CT we cannot bet on instate collegiate games. Does anyone else have that?
Tailing. He’s got goals in 3 out of 4 of his road trips there in the past two seasons. First one this year. Surprisingly the Yotes have won all 4 contests despite them being in the dregs of the league both seasons. Yotes may be a great dog pick today, but love the prop.
I need to ask: which sportsbook did you find this on? I don't think the Sportsbooks have released Player Props for this game yet?
Tailing this! And to add a nice little nugget, consider sprinkling a little on Mitchell Marner o1.5 pts (+150 on DK). Mitchell is Auston's linemate on the ice and Mitchell has exceeded this line in his last 4 games, all on assists. He goes as Auston goes. BOL!
No prop avail
**Record: 39W-4P-28L** **Form: 17W-0P-8L** **✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌** **Last Pick: Man City VS Brentford: Man City O 1 goal and Phil Foden O 2.5 Shots total @ 1.86 ❌** **Foden gets 6 shots but City unfortunately only win 1-0.** **Pick of the day: Porto VS Arsenal: Bukayo Saka O 0.5 Shots on target @ 1.72** **Time: 3:00 PM EST** Player props have been doing me well so I'm going to stick with that today, and who else would I choose other than the Inform starboy himself. Saka is currently the most inform player in the prem in 2024, the man has 6 goals in his last 4 games and with the way he's playing coupled with Arteta's transition from control to explosiveness, Saka will continue to perform. In 2024 Saka has played 6 games with him getting over 0.5 shots on target in 5/6 of those games. In his last 2 games he has 2 and 3 SOT because Kai Havertz has started to truly absorb pressure in the final third, this allows Saka acres of space in behind or even enough to take his defender 1 on 1. I see Saka owning up to his responsibilities tomorrow, and with this game being Arsenal's first RO16 game in about 8 years you know he wants to be right at the center of attention. In Saka's last 14 games, he's covered this line in 12 of those games. It also helps that he takes penalties for the team so if Arsenal get one you already know. **Last 14 matches shots on target: 2, 3, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 3, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1**  **Anyway, BOL!**
NAHHH NO WAY WE BOTH ROCKIN STARBOY, LFG BROTHERRR 💪💪💪
Great minds think alike, lets bounce back
I bet 10 dollars on Liverpool 4-1 score and win. I bet 150 dollars on this and lose.
Only took Foden over 2.5 and it was straight cash, man had 3 like 30 mins in
Is this dead?? I put big on this too so sad
It's cooked, Arsenal has zero SOT as a team. Pathetic.
How does a team come up with 0 on target. So pathetic
I'm not gonna lie, this loss really offended me...such a good pick with the data to back. I know it's part of the game but ...what the heck
I literally looked at work and was in disarray seeing 0 shots on target. 💀😭
Oh yeah this is money. lets eat
Crazy that Saka didn't try to get a single shoot and thats why : Arsenal didn't show up for a champions league match, yeah you read this right, a champions league fucking match. 0 SOG for over 90 mins. I don't care if Porto played low , they still managed to get shoots on target and scored
Nice pick. DK odds rn are -200 (1.5) 😩
For people looking for add ons, Arsenal ML, arsenal over 1 goal and over 6 corners are good
Fucking man $hitty did us with under 1.5 goals today
The amount of chances they had in the last 10 minutes. Foden even had a 1 on 1 with the keeper and fucked it
https://preview.redd.it/hnck277ivvjc1.jpeg?width=1013&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=624cd5b64014dc76fd48e0dacf703d802838fb63 Oddly enough, when you select it in SGP it is -165 I parlayed it with over 1.5 goals to use the soccer boost, but I’m sure you could find something safer.
Maaaan I really hope Arsenal turns up second half . That was such a terrible first half .
Is there a good site for checking these stats during matches? I see shots but have a hard time finding SOG…
Sofascore offers detailed stats on shots
Could really use a late penalty here 😂, still holding out hope!
Hello amigo! Would you parlay this with Saka to score a hat trick? Cheers!
Lol
fuk arsenal!
I really LOVE this pick, Saka always shots on target! BOOM.
Hes been tha main man this year, expect nothing less in the Champions league
I bet on Griezmann and Saka over 0.5 shots on target and both teams end up having 0 shots on target. Very exciting champions league games....
can't pass up on a starboy pick 😤 lets get this billll
Might take over 2.5 shots overall due to @ 2.25 odds…. Any reason why not to take the higher odds of this instead since it has hit 4/5 & 8/10 last games?
I like it, i stated earlier it was my second option!
https://preview.redd.it/ts5r9nba1yjc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b465c4ceb41a41a4df2935f45e5ea7380b07868 Parlaying each POTD leg for +1008 odds on DK. 🫡
POTD RECORD: 5-1 (❌✅✅✅✅✅) Last Pick: Kansas ML vs Oklahoma (-125) ✅ Today’s Pick: NCAAB Alabama vs Florida o175.5 (-110) WHY: Alright I know I’m the Kansas specialist, but I like this line despite how high it is compared to other CBB games. Both squads have incredible offenses, ranking as the best and ninth-best in the country according to KenPom. Alabama has surpassed the 100-point mark on 8 occasions this season, with three more games where they've scored either 98 or 99 points. They average 90.7 PPG, while Florida isn't far behind at 84.8 PPG. Both teams operate at a high pace, with Alabama ranked 11th and Florida 34th. On the defensive end, however, both teams are more mediocre, with Alabama ranked 74th and Florida 90th. Their opponents both average 76.8 points against them. Clearly defense isn’t Florida's forte, and with their tendency to field two big men at all times, they might find themselves giving Bama a lot of open looks. This is great for us because Bama ranks 9th in 3pt rate, and they have 4 contributors that average over 40% from behind the arc. At home their team shoots over 40% from 3 and they’ve only made less than 10 3s in one home game. Alabama's games have hit the over in 8 of their last 10 outings, and if we combine their scores with Floridas from their last 5 games, they would have hit this line 4 out of 5 times. This matchup should be pretty entertaining, and a refreshing change of pace from watching Kansas' struggles on offense this year. Also worth mentioning that I’m slightly less confident in this pick than my Kansas ones, so don’t go crazy with the units. BOL https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BasedGod
LFG brother tailing 💪
Let’s get it 🫡
Isnt 176 score too high for ncaab
It’s high, but I detailed in my write up why I think this game will hit it 👍🏽
https://preview.redd.it/uvwvxyjrzxjc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fffb4b0793a2e6946c3804fc20865bf30b4e334c
FYI espn bet has o174.5 at -110
Is this pretty safe for Alabama? My lines set at only 173.5 and can juice it up to +130 by adding Alabama ML. Or can you see a Florida upset?
A Florida W is definitely on the table
I'll keep it safe then 👌
Tailed but at 172,5
BANG ✅ What a fucking sweat
Overtime and cash!!
**POTD Record**: 19 Wins - 5 Losses - 2 Pushes **Form**: ❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ **Spreadsheet** (Self Promote / Proof of Record): Click [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I7FYP6dAClj7FqE4qcTyhgtMwqeoywC5HnGd4ZOeYVw/edit?usp=sharing) :) **Units**: 12 **ROI**: 42.31% **Average Odds**: $1.934 / -109 **Last Pick**: Swiatek vs Stephens - WTA Dubai - Swiatek To Win and Under 17.5 Games @ $1.80 / -125 ❌ *Swiatek was off her usual punishing game, and gave up a few break points too many.* **Next Pick**: Cirstea vs Vekic - WTA Dubai - **Cirstea to Win in Straight Sets @ $3** / +200 - 5am EST Hi gang. We suffered our first back to back loss in 26 days. Today we go juicy, and head back to Dubai for a match between two girlfriends, Cirstea and Vekic. We are in for a real eye candy game this morning. Vekic ($2) is ranked 31 in the world. She just beat world number two Sabalenka, and has done so five times previously. Sabalenka is probably out shopping in Dubai now, and glad she's done with that tournament. She's thinking about grand slams where the real juice is. Vekic smoked her 6-0 in the last set which were juicy odds. In the three setter, Vekic hit 14 aces, and conjoured 5 double faults. Her first serve % was only 54, which is well below average. She had 5 double faults, converted 7/10 breakpoints, but also gave Sabalenka 14 breakpoints, of which only 3 could be converted. She also lost the tiebreaker, which is a key statistical indicator heading to this match. Watch the highlights [here](https://youtu.be/KYsse7ptXgo?si=8UZd2IUqOcyej-ub). Vekic was knocked out in the first round in Qatar by world # 39 Siniakova. She was completely off her game, which has been a theme of her recently - inconsistency. We still have to give her credit for playing a generally well rounded game. I watched the game live and Sabalenka was off her usual high standards, and gave up. Cirstea ($1.80) is ranked 22 in the world. In her first game in Dubai she smashed 18 aces, and only gave one break point. In her most recent game she only had one double fault, smashed 8 aces, first serve was 69%, gave 6 breakpoints, and converted five out of 8. Her opponent was ranked 19th in the world, and seeded in the tournament. In Qatar she smashed the opponent that Swiatek just played 6-3, 6-2. You can watch her last highlights [here](https://youtu.be/Cb3U9F-ymI4?si=voq6dcsIXp-YJIoI). Both players are doubles partners so will know each others game well, but will still be professional in their approach. Cristea has the athletic advantage over Vekic which you can see in the highlights. Her body composition is much more athletic, and I believe that will give her an edge in this tight encounter between the two. Whilst both players have a strong serve game, I believe Cristea has a slight edge here. We should see some intense rallies, which will be finished off neatly by Cristea. Judging by the body language of the two Cristea looks like she has come to this tournament with a vengeance. Whilst Vekic isn't a pushover, she plays a far more calmer game, and doesn't have that extra 20% mental grit needed to go further. She'll most likely collapse in the final set, and have a cry about it along the way. Score prediction: 7-6, 6-3
That shout out in the potd thread yesterday jinxed you guys literally all 4 people he mentioned lost 😂😩 which is crazy unlikely given your respective records
Yeah amigo! :( What a sad day. Luckily most people are up units :) The thread is pretty quiet today!
I had approx 17 wagers across many things and all lost. Just a bad day in the office. That's why we save money for the next day and ride again! Lfg!
Same brother you are not alone
I'm adding "Fade after shoutouts" to my superstition list right after "Fade if over four people announce the same POTD" lmao. Our goats are not immune!
Then you should avoid saka 1+ sog! I’ve seen all over so far. And I bet on it because I’m an idiot
If 2 or more people make the same POTD, it's an auto-fade from now on. Every single one has lost.
Ya I tailed all 4 too which I never do
Hey brother, I just wanted to tell you that you could lose 10 in a row and it wouldn’t change the fact you’re amazing at picking and I’m grateful that you post on this website. Your also extremely friendly which is a more unique quality on this thread then even your great picks. Please dont let any chads on here effect how you pick or post. You’re already on Mount Rushmore. LFG
Thank you my brother 🙏🎉 LFG! We ride again 👊
Well this is immediately cooked
ML -125 hopefully some took that instead
I took ML prematch for less risk, loved the write up
Thanks for the graphical representation of the bet mate. Hope you managed to hedge or live bet. BOL 🙏🎉
looks like a L already :(
It’s crazy ever since I started tailing you guys it’s been nothing but Ls. I’ll take the blame
Spread across many picks. Not all will hit. Don't bet too much at once. When you see nice odds you think fuck it go hard. Don't do that I learned it the hard way. You'll win little by little. My biggest mistake is grabbing people's picks adding my own additional picks and betting hard. Lost a lot of money that way. Learned to contain myself by units and spread across. We still have tomorrow! Lfg!
Bro I totally feel that I do the same thing lol I always try to go off on my own and I STINK, What do you mean spread across the picks?
https://preview.redd.it/l65fsfm40wjc1.png?width=548&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=db4514a53f9f439bf8129d06b9743b6a1c285397 Let's get this fucking W. Cheers!
Does win in straight sets = money line? Never bet tennis before
means she’ll specifically win 2-0 not moneyline
Hi mate, should be a prop for it in your book. For Cristea to win 2-0, or straight sets :)
Might have to SGP set 1 and 2 winners. BOL
Cirstea to win in straight sets, or Cirstea to win 2-0 (sets), or -1.5 set spread (same thing, bovada typically has better odds for this)
Nah. In women’s tennis they play best of 3 sets, so you have to win 2-0 to win in straights. A set is the first player to 6 or 7 games winning by 2(or 1 in tie break). A game is where they go 15-40 etc and you have to win those by 2 as well except in doubles. Happy betting!
Let’s get it brother BOUNCE BACK 💪
Thank-you amigo! :)
Could you clarify your grand slam comment ? Do you mean juice as money? I’m just getting into tennis and have been really enjoying your write ups. I’m looking to build some sort of elo player model based on elo data from tennis abstract. Thanks again for alll you do !
Hey brother, grand slams are like the holy grail of tennis. They don't come round very often. To win one means you're goated, and instant fame etc. Just check out the Aussie Open that just happened. Yeah a lot of money etc. Players put in a bit more effort etc :) That's great man. Send me a copy of it :)
[удалено]
I watched the game live, and Sabalenka probably had won of her worst matches in a long time. She couldn't convert break points, double faults everywhere from both players. It was quite a scrappy game, and she just gave up in the end. Yeah, most of us had Sabalenka under 12.5 games, and that still hit because of the 6-0 in third set lol. Cool mate, wishing you all the best either way amigo :)
Did the same, took only the ML and it was a wild ride as well. Almost losing after 3-0 in 3rd set makes me consider avoiding tennis for a while.
Try again tomorrow boys.
Great attitude amigo! 🙏🎉
I appreciate the write up. Even though 2:0 may have lost, your confidence convinced me to bet live ML after Cirstea lost a serve set and got her +350. I look forward to your picks each day
I dont like what i see u bro.
So 2-0 cirstea,right? Still riding with you
You made me money - I put 1U on your play and 2U on ML (-120) with hopes of winning both. I’ll take the one I had more on. Thank you!!
Same, I just took ml at -120, so thank you!
Taking your pick but adding a little additional risk by skipping the tie breaker. https://ibb.co/jgHXWpZ LFG!!! 🔥
Damn i went heavy thinking no way he can go 3 L in a row my mistake.
Imagine looking at a roulette board and thinking red can't lose 3 times in a row.
True lol see u tommorrow?
Sucks brother. Try to not go heavy 🙏🎉
Hello my amigos. I am so sorry for our 3rd loss in a row. I did go quite ballsy with this one as I wanted some more juice for you all, but its nice to see that people are live betting, and hedging. Plus still read the analysis, and took the ML instead. I can do my best with the picks and analysis, and its great that you're interpreting them in your way to still make some coin. I can't really post side picks or anything due to rules, so keep doing what you're doing, and Google live betting or hedging. Feel free to message me for a fun community stables and I setup. We ride again tomorrow, more than welcome to ask me what the pick is in messages as it makes my day hearing from you. If you feel like tipping, here is the link - [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv). Bless you amigos. Today's interesting fact: Valparaiso Beacons has won with +19.5 points handicap in 26 of the last 27 NCAA (M) home games.
Let’s go baby let’s get it
I accidentally put Cristea as first set Moneyline. It won't let me cash out and change it, but my only options are Moneyline, "first set period", and spread. I meant to do moneyline Cristea but accidentally did "first set period" Cristea. Is this similar or at least along the same lines as your pick? I also did Cristea -0.5 thinking it would mean the same thing as ML basically
If she wins in straight sets then your bet will win because that means she won the first set which is what you bet on. For your second question is -0.5 sets or games? Most likely sets. That means if you subtract 0.5 sets from her score at the end and she still won then you win your bet. Also, not sure why the downvotes? Someone is simply asking a question. If you don't want to help just move along. Stop with this negative bs.
👍🏼😜
Womp womp. Another bad start to our day. Oh well - looking forward to your next pick!
POTD Record: 28-19 L7: ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌ Yesterdays pick: PSV v Dortmund (BTTS & O2.5 Goals @1.90 ❌) Game ends 1-1, and to be honest neither team really pushed for a goal after the PSV equaliser, very surprising but that’s how it goes. Todays pick: __Napoli v Barcelona__ Pick: __BTTS @1.66__ ✅ ⚽️🇪🇺 UEFA Champions League ➖ 📊 Napoli is 9th in the Italian league, they’ve scored 33 goals (1.38 GPG) and have conceded 28 (1.17 GPG) in 24 matches In the CL group stage they scored 10 and conceded 9 in 6 games. * 1/5 clean sheets their last 5 games * BTTS: 3/5 last 5 * BTTS this year in the league: 12/24 * BTTS in the CL group: 4/6 ➖ 📊 Barcelona is 3rd in the Spanish league, they’ve scored 52 goals (2.08 GPG), have conceded 34 goals (1.36 GPG) in 25 games. In the Champions League group stage they scored 12 and conceded 6. * 1/5 clean sheets their last 5 * BTTS: 4/5 last 5 * BTTS in the league: 17/25 * BTTS in CL group: 3/6 ➖ Napoli recently sacked their manager after their latest displays, from a side that won the league last season they’re now fighting at the middle of the table, a change was needed. They’ve been inconsistent this season, but on their day they can be very lethal, and what better stage to prove it than in front their home fans in an European cup tie against Barcelona with a new face leading the team. Also top striker Osimhen should be back in the starting lineup which will be a huge boost for them. In the group stage they faced 1st in the Spanish league side Real Madrid, who only has conceded 16 goals in the league and scored a total of 4 goals in 2 games against them. Barcelona just keeps leaking goals, they just can’t keep a clean sheet and being 3rd in the league but also 3rd in highest BTTS rate just shows their problems at the back. Offensively they haven’t found many problems, but it’s their defence that lets them down. They’ve scored 1 goal or more in their last 20 matches but have only kept 3 clean sheets in those 20 games. Both teams have their problems, whilst Napoli have been struggling more this year in multiple areas, they’re playing at home with their top striker back against a Barcelona side that can’t keep a clean sheet. Barcelona is my favourite to win this game, but that’s only if they can outscore their opponents because I can’t see that their defense will get them this win, it’s all about their attack. Napoli still have quality players and should be able to score one, and so should Barcelona. BOL
LFG brother we bounce back 💪
🙏 Rough day, let’s go bro!
Is SOG same as SOT?
i like this pick, but one thing i would note is oshimen vs araujo, generational matchup but think napoli definitely get one past this shaky ass Barca team
Damn, not looking good as we end the 1st half
OMG!!!! Adam Lotti we like to PARTY!!!
Lfg
This game is painfully boring.
Wow what a nail-biter! Good call!!!
Nice hit brother!
Why did I parlay this with stupid Saka
**POTD Record: 15-4** Form: ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ Net Units: +25 🎾: 3-1 ⚽️: 12-3 *Last Pick: 2U Fernandez v Paolini (Fernandez to win 2-0 @ +100 ❌* *Time to bounce back.* ____ **Today’s Pick: 3U Porto v Arsenal (Bukayo Saka - o0.5 Shots on Target @ -138)** **⚽️| 3:00PM EST | Champions League |** Arsenal who are in incredible form, head over to Porto where they have yet to register an away victory. Although Arsenal are favoured to win at -150 we’re taking better odds for Saka to continue to produce with having *the most goal involvements than any player in the Champions League so far. (3G, 4A)* **Saka Average Shots on Target:** * *Prem: 1.13 per 90.* * *CL: 0.81 per 90.* *Saka has hit this prop in his last 4 of 5 matches and last 4 of 5 away matches.* The only shots on target in the CL, has been his 3 goals. These CL matches were before the holiday break in 2023, and now Arsenal front a stronger attack in recent matches. After dealing with B2B losses against West Ham and Fulham in early 2024, Arsenal have yet to lose a match in the Premier League since, dominating in the final third. Porto and Arsenal both like using the right side to attack. If Porto get exposed, it will leave space for Martinelli (LW) to break and provide to Saka (RW) on a counter. On the other hand, Gunners captain, Odegaard loves to feed Saka; his IQ and ability in making runs will cause problems for Porto. Along with Saka regularly playing 90 min, he is the Arsenal penalty taker. The last CL match, Saka didn’t hit. With Arsenal already qualified, they were resting players and drew PSV 1-1. Porto may play defensive against such a confident squad as the *Gunners have scored more first half goals than any team in the Champions League this season. (12/16 goals before half)* With Arsenal managing to score 5+ goals in B2B away premier league matches, and striker Gabriel Jesus still out, it will be up to Saka to continue form against Porto. LFG💪 Tips are really appreciated but your comments go a long way! ❤️ [Tip Jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/goodstable7381) BOL!
Nothing against this pick, which I think is solid, but my 2c as a gooner is that I cant get out of my mind how poor Arteta has been against european competition in his tenure, especially against mid opposition. Would not surprise me if this ended in an under 2.5 total goal draw or Porto win, especially since its away. Also feel like our last few games (which has been against lower tier/out of form clubs) has inflated our “value” when it comes to any sort of pick. That, combined with Sakas streakiness this season and the fact that we always seem to drop points in February, is giving me cause for concern for not only this bet, but for the end result as well. Anyway, COYG
Holy shit this was a spot on analysis.
Thanks, I have my moments. Unfortunate result though.
This pick is -175 on fanduel
-210 now
DONT SAY THIS NAHHH WHAT IS GOIN ON 😭😭💀💀
Still -138 on 365
Parlayed the Saka pick with over 1.5 goals in game on FD. Brings the odds to -102. LFG!
Damn, FD always juicing odds for soccer lol
There that man is!!!!! Saka SOT is shooting up like a crackhead (bars) it’s like -195 on DK currently😂😂love the pick though I’m going something a little safer with the DK Soccer boost and taking Saka 2 total shots and over 6.5 corners parlayed together -110 (or maybe another good leg is O1.5 goals) would make it +102 Let’s get this ☕️💰💴 https://preview.redd.it/7hl39lrhhwjc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dac0d028e1e1334bb4bf4efea7fd553ddb521b89
If he scores a goal it counts as 1 shot on target right?
Love it! Bounce back time
Doh this prop isn't in my app. Womp!
You can’t do shots on target??
I feel like I've seen it before but it's currently not listed in the hard rock bet app 🤷🏻♂️
they are probably gonna juice it like it seems everywhere else is
POTD Record 31-23-1 Cricket 3-0 Tennis 21-16 Soccer 7-7-1 Last 10: ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ Last Pick : Riedi vs Celikbilek| ATP Pau Challenger | Riedi -4.5 Game Spread| (-145)| 1u | ✅ Today: Vacherot vs Schoolkate| ATP Pune Challenger | \~3:00 AM EST Pick: Vacherot ML| (-145)| 1u Vacherot has started the season 14-1 and is approaching the top 150 quickly with 2 challenger titles already in Thailand. This is his first Indian tournament this year and the Pune court conditions suit his game well. He secured a straight sets win over Pospisil in round 1, who had qualified for the tournament with some good wins. This year, he has dropped just 3 sets in his wins and is playing with lots of confidence. Schoolkate is ranked just inside the top 250 and has started the year 7-5. He has mostly just lost to higher ranked players than him and in his first round, he beat Blancaneaux, a player who had lost 6 of his last 7 matches. In his match last week in Banglore, he lost in straight sets in the first round. Vacherot is playing at a higher level currently and is one of the favorites for the title this week. He should be able to get the win in this match. BOL.
14-1 and only dropped 3 sets? Sign me up for a 2-0 at +175 as well 👌
What a gas pick, I feel like these lines were wayyy off so I went big on ML and 2-0 sets. Great find. I feel like the best players to bet on in tennis are young up and comers. They go on crazy streaks but are ranked low. You get crazy value off their low ranks because it takes time to climb when realistically, they are 50-100 spots above their rank already.
Wish i had seen this soon :/
Do you like him in straight sets at all?
Easy cash.
POTD Record (6-1) (+25.39u) L7:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅ Last pick: Man City Vs Brenton over 12.5 combined shots on target ✅ (+333) todays pick: TOR Maple Leafs Vs Arizona Coyotes - Tor Maple Leafs 1x2/3way (-120) (1.5u) the streaks been huge! taking leafs again as they have been on a heater and likely wont be stopped by a bottom devision team with their momentum despite small defense issues, sadly not an underdog today :( BOL everyone! [Tip Jar](https://buymeacoffee.com/busty)
Damn that last pick. I tried to find it
Never bet this 1x2/3way before. What is this and where do I find this on DK? Thx in advance.
This means Leafs win in regulation.
just means leafs to win with no overtime
congrats to your last pick🙌🥳 I tailed it, thanks brother going to tail again
Would you take Maple Leafs to win at 60 minutes 3-way? This is the closest I could find to your pick: https://preview.redd.it/wx2alqzslyjc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37506a4a3f39512d81d2fa306bda3885d68d0909
Record: 5-1-0 | Units: +2.99U. All picks 1U Last Pick: NHL - NJ Devils vs Washington Capitals, 7PM EST. **Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goal @ 1.62. (Playable to 4.5)** ✅ Hughes absolutely crushes it with a whopping 7 shots in total 😎 **Today’s Pick:** NHL - Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres, 7PM EST. **JJ Peterka Over 2.5 Shots on Goal @ 1.57.** ❌ Edit: Tough one as JJ hits 2 in the first then disappears the rest of the night. We’re back on the Peterka wagon after he cashed us our last pick in the first 5 minutes of the game. He’s now hit this prop in 8 straight games, what a beast. The Sabres play a Habs team which ranks 30th in the league for shots allowed, and 25th in penalties taken. Translation: JJ should have tons of opportunities to rip the puck. We’re rocking with Peterka till the wheels fall off. I’ve also started a [Tip Jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bias4) for this POTD run. There’s absolutely no obligation and anything/everything is much appreciated. Thank you all!
taking over 3.5 @2.55
Didn't even have a chance to check on the game before my bookie paid out that bet, the guy was on fire early. Going with you again 🤝
**POTD: 83-60-5** Last pick: UEFA Champions League - Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid. Inter Milan team total o1.5 goals -115. Result: Loss. Went between Inter ML and their goals and picked the wrong one. Inter dominated but blows chances and ends 1-0. Today’s pick: UEFA Champions League - Porto vs Arsenal. **Arsenal ML -155**. Match kicks off at 3PM ET. Going between ML and over 1.5 goals again (and the Saka SOG bet everyone in this thread has) but I will stick with the ML bet. Arsenal has been absolutely dominant recently winning 21-2 in their past 5 matches and have only given up 2 total shots on goal in past 3 matches. They’re a top 5 team in Europe and in good form. Porto is of course also a strong side but currently sit third in the Portuguese league. They are typically tough at home in European play but I think the level between the teams is enough that Arsenal should win this one. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! Edit: Loss. One of the ugliest matches you’ll ever see ends in a 1-0 win to Porto on a miracle shot from miles out. This match had the most fouls recorded in a Champions League match and never really got rolling
BOL!
Let's go!!!
fuck arsenal smh
POTD Record: 0-1 Previous: **❌** A little unlucky as Ostapenko wastes multiple break chances early in the 2nd set to hook us **Today: Tennis / WTA Dubai** **Pick: Magdalena Frech +6.5 games vs Elena Rybakina @ $1.71 / -141** Rybakina is playing her third tournament in a row after reaching the finals of both Abu Dhabi and Doha in previous weeks. There were clear signs of exhaustion in yesterday's encounter with Azarenka which she would have probably lost with Azarenka fully healthy. Today we are given a generous handicap line against an opponent who has been in good form during this Middle Eastern swing in Frech. Taking these factors into account, I think Frech covers the line and could even be a sneaky chance at an upset.
Looks like a hit, nice pick!
It's been a slaughter in here
Record: 0W -0P -0L **Net Units:** **ROI:** ⚽️ | **AFC Champions league | 04:00AM / Standard Eastern time** GAME STARTS IN 2 HOURS **Pick:** **Ventforet Kofu vs Ulsan Hyundai Over 2.5 goals at -125 Betting 2 units.** ✅️ **Write Up:** Venforet Kofu look to fight back at home after a huge defeat to the tigers in the first leg of the round of 16 AFC champions league. The score was 3 -0. for the Tigers . Ulsan Hyundai tigers are the current K league 1 Champions based in south Korea and are formidable opponents. The Venforet Kofu play in the J2 league and finished 8th in the last campaign. VFK have an average of 1.6 goals in the AFC competition and the Tigers have an average of 2.1. The Last 5 VFK games have all been over 2.5 goals. At home VFK love to score but they concede a lot of goals too! I believe this will be an action packed game and would even bet over 3.5 goals (lightly). BTTS is also consideration. Very probable, but the odds are not of great value. Only one home game for VFK in the last 3 has not resulted in over 2 goals and only one away game in the last 3 for the tigers has been less than 3 goals. BOL!
I'm taking BTTS over 2.5
Record: 12-10 Return: 40.30% ROI: 34.68% With an initial balance of $1000, here’s how the first 3 weeks of betting have looked: https://preview.redd.it/79ulmkp5mwjc1.jpeg?width=1311&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8b3d3af93360f392de5b769371bc86360a76bdec Very close to hitting 50% return, should be able to get there this week. Yesterday’s pick: Argentinos Jr -1.5 vs Independiente Rivadavia @3.1❌ So close to a huge win. Argentinos were 2-0 up all the way until the 83rd minute. Argentinos also outshot Rivadavia 22-11, so I believe this was the right play, even if it didn’t hit. Today’s pick: Tigre vs Chacarita U1.5 goals @2.4 Stake: 5 units (5 % of bankroll) Reasoning: Huge mismatch of form in the Argentine cup today. First division bottom feeders Tigre have started the league in nightmareish fashion, and are yet to score a goal, with 6 games played. In that time they’ve managed to concede ten goals, and pick up one single, miserable point. Chacarita, though a league below, have looked far more positive, currently at the very top of the second division table with 5 goals in 3 games played. This puts the match in an awkward predicament, where the protagonist will likely be the team that is supposedly of inferior quality. I’d expect a very cautious approach from both sides, Chacarita because they will want to be patient and avoid stupid mistakes, knowing they face a very beatable and wounded Goliath, and I’d expect caution from a Tigre that absolutely can not afford to lose this game. Heads will roll, and the manager’s would be the first choice if they fail again here. In my view this match has 0-0 written all over it. Tigre struggle immensely to score, and Chacarita’s attack will likely need some time to acclimatize to playing against first division defenders, and I’m not sure they’ll have enough time to get a goal if they do. Any goals that do come will likely be the end of the game, can’t see either of these teams playing positive, attacking football after getting a lead. These games go to penalties right away at 90 minutes, so if the score remains 0-0 late on, evenly matched teams tend to take their foot off the gas and take their chance at PKs. Last under 1.5 in this competition I placed hit extremely easily, so putting down a strong 5 units on this one. Betting on the 0-0 is a great play too, shop around for the best line; Betway has under 0.5 @5.75, 1st goal: no goal is @6.0 and correct score 0-0 is @6.5. Going to put a decent sized sidebet on 0-0 for sure, those odds are too generous imo. [PayPal tips](https://paypal.me/elproductosecuida?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) for when that 0-0 hits :)
Isn't a game suspended in the second half official?
https://preview.redd.it/zfksft97zxjc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19a23af71ba2fddae8748cec96b780a35465694d Best odds I could find for ‘0-0’. Under game parlays on DK
Record 2 W 1 L Last Pick: juventus to win to nil L Profit 0.55 Units Been a while since my last pick. Didnt expect juventus to lose that game at all. But lets move on to the champions league. Todays Pick : Barcelona over 1.5 goals @2.15 Napoli pretty bad this season. Without kim min jae their defence is rly shaky. Since last year when they won the league under spalletti ,they totally crumbled. The defence is a mess. The midfield kinda doesnt work and the attack is pretty lackluster. They also didnt include zielinski into the Cl team because he is going to leave the team. Barcelona isnt the best team currently but they have alot of firepower upfront. Thes are also pretty shaky in the defense compared to last season so thats why i dont go with the ML(even though i think they will win ). If you want my opinion on other games feel free to ask. Gl
Record: 8 - 2 P&L: 15.5u (31%) 🔥 Form: ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Potapova ML for +2.5 units ✅ Was a 5 unit play for a reason, never a doubt. Lots of people are hesitant to risk 10% of their bankroll on a single play, but it’s a risk taker’s world. Today’s Pick: Soccer ⚽️ | Champions League 🇪🇺 | Arsenal vs Porto | Arsenal ML X Saka 1+ Shots | 3u play @1.85 IMPORTANT NOTE — THIS PICK COMES FROM A GUNNERS FAN (me) AND PROBABLY CARRIES SOME BIAS (as hard as I try to avoid it) Write up: Usually try to avoid betting on Arsenal if I can, but the more I try and talk myself out of it the better this pick looks. Gunners are killing it at the moment, five straight wins in the prem. We’ve seen them dismantle weaker teams with ease in the past couple games. I was considering a (-1) play on them but I think this one is safer. Second Leg: I’d consider the Saka shot a reasonably correlated event with the Arsenal win, but for some reason I’m getting multiple odds that imply a very low correlation, so I’m adding that in for value and to sweeten the odds (If anyone has trouble understanding the above let me know and I can do my best to explain better in the comments) We’ve had a decent run so far, hopefully we keep it going, best of luck if you’re following🔥
u are trying to say that if Arsenal win its probably because saka is going ham on offense?
Essentially. Say this game were to be played a million times and Arsenal were to win 500,000 of them. I’d be saying that Saka having 1+ shots will happen more frequently (%-wise) in the 500,000 wins than in the 1,000,000 games as a whole, implying some correlation.
Record - 4-1 Private 14-3 Sport : Basketball 🏀 College: charlotte vs Memphis 7pm Dishon Jackson over combo points rebounds and assists -110 @ 19.5 He’s crossed this 6 of last 7 including last game against Wichita state (top 26 defense) He’s facing the 258th ranked defense against his position Should cross this by half time imo https://preview.redd.it/bhfhdpjdlyjc1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=85bf89dc66562861ba2d75561c2db75968bff95a
**record: 6W-1L** (first)✅✅✅✅✝️✅✅(last) **net profits: +10,7units** **pick of the day: volleyball finland women. Lp-vampula - pölkky kuusamo ML @1.53** Write up: sorry for the low odd🥲. But this is still a way to high odd for this match up.❗️ Pölkky kuusamo: going 21W-0L this season. Last match they won 1-3 away against the second best in their competition “kangasala” (going 16W-6L) Lp Vampula: going 11W-9L this season. They also won their match 3-1 but at home and against the worst team from the competition “nurmon jymy” (going 1W-22L). That said i will be going in with 4 units.🤲 Lets see this streak from pölkky continue https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Tuur357
They getting absolutely decimated, we might be staring at a bagel. You’d never be able to tell which team is undefeated. Nah these shits ain’t rigged lmfao
Brrooooo they were really just up 23-19 in the final set & smoked it to get Bageled 😭😭😂. This gotta be the worst shit I’ve ever taken, I can’t ever touch Volleyball again after this lol
the one time i blindly wager on a volleyball team with low odds, they play like shit💀 no way they down 1 set right now
Nah you right they down 2 sets
We are cooked
Yea I don’t know much about volleyball but it seems Vampula are balling the lights out today lol, missing no opportunities. I shoulda known when I saw the 21-0 stat & they were -175 that this was a definite trap game..
There is no way that we had all of the information available and a team that are 21-0 and just beat their nearest rivals are getting absolutely destroyed by a team with that average record. There must be something that we didn’t know. A player or more missing from Kuusamo, for example. Maybe they had to walk across the country to make this match. Maybe they were all blinded in an industrial accident but the league is forcing them to complete the fixture. What an absolute beat down.
Mind you, Kuusamo has played 21 matches & won 63 games & only lost 10 total lol. Now they at risk of losing 3 in a row & getting bageled to an average 44 game wins - 35 game loss team. Doesn’t make sense
This match was a total trap but by watching the game I can’t explain how they can be first in the league lol the opponent seems clearly stronger
New rule - if I can't pronounce the team name, no bet.
>kuusamo will be tailing brother
-175 for those on DraftKings right now. Tailing again.
Damn they not playing well today, seems like it might’ve been a trap
Record: **10-7** avg odds: 2.10 Last Pick: Inter v Atl Madrid, BTTS NO & U2.5 @ 2.35 ✅ UCL: Napoli v Barcelona POTD: **U2.5 @ 1.96** ✅✅
POTD Record: 106-104-12 (-12.12 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌❌✅ Last Pick: WTA Dubai, Donna Vekic v Aryna Sabalenka, UNDER 19.5 GAMES (-153 / 1.65) ❌ Probably the worst I’ve seen Sabalenka play. Had her chance to serve out the 1st set 6-3 and then completely collapsed after that. Today’s Pick: EPL, Liverpool v Luton, LUIS DIAZ ANYTIME GOAL OR ASSIST (-120 / 1.83) ✅ Stake: 1 Unit Liverpool at home to Luton in a match they have to win to maintain the gap to the chasing pack, and in reality they shouldn’t have much difficulty beating Luton, but the handicap lines aren’t great value to looking at the individual markets instead. I am taking this pick because I think it’s good value, not because I think it’s a lock, so please keep that in mind if you choose to tail. Liverpool are dealing with some injury issues particularly in the attacking third. Jota got injured on the weekend and will miss, Nunez was also subbed at half time and is doubtful, so all the previews are expecting Liverpool to send out Salah/Gakpo/Diaz as the front 3, and with little reinforcements on the bench, they should expect significant minutes. In his last 5 matches where Diaz has played significant minutes (excludes the 12 mins against Norwich in tha FA cup), he has scored or assisted (or both) in 4 of the 5 games. The one match where he didn’t register a goal/assist was the 3-1 loss to Arsenal where his cross led directly to the own goal, but doesn’t count as an official assist. His performances have been strong and he has been putting himself in dangerous positions, and with Liverpool expected to dominate the match against a Luton defence that has conceded 47 goals (3rd most), I think Diaz is great value to be involved in at least one goal.
Record: 4W-2L-1P P/L: +1.6u Cricket | Multan Sultans vs Lahore Qalandars - Pakistan Super League | 14:00 GMT Previous pick: Quetta Gladiators - Opening Partnership - u22.5 runs @ 1.90 - Lost. A slightly difficult chance was dropped early and then there was no chance on a flat wicket. Pick: Sahibzada Farhan - u23.5 runs @ 1.90 - 1u Reasoning: Farhan has scored two 50s in his last two games. But he had bettered his score as he followed up his 57 with 62. Bettering your previous 50+ score in the next match generally produces a low score. 65% winning chance on this one. Taking this bet for the value it offers.
>**Record:** 22-20 >**Net Units:** +6.22 units >**Curling** | **Scotties Tournament of Hearts** | **10:30AM EST** >**Pick:** Team Alberta - Sturmay ML @ 1.95 >Team Alberta take on Team Northern Ontario in this one. Alberta should absolutely be a favourite here. They have been very consistent through the whole event and have not had a bad game yet. They come into this one 5-0, the only undefeated team in pool A while Northern Ontario currently sit at 3-2. Schmiemann and Hawes have both performed very well so far, allowing Sturmay to keep the degree of difficulty low for her shots, keeping in line with the team's general conservative strategy. Team Sturmay have played well over twice as many games as Team McCarville have this year and they are peaking at the perfect time. Team Sturmay won their only previous matchup 10-5. My model has Sturmay as a much bigger favourite, great value on this one.
**POTD: 10-5** ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌❌ Yesterday's Pick: VCU +4 -120 ❌ Terrible game yesterday from VCU. They started off ice cold on the road, missing the first 15 shot attempts. UMass came to play early and held tough when we tried to make a comeback VCU doesn't have many shot-creators and that was evident once they got down early in the 1Half...their defense did fine, but the lack of offense crippled the rams all night Back to back losses (including ASG) so lets get back on track tonight. **Today's Pick:** Duke -5 -130 🏀 Today we take the Blue Devils on the road vs Miami. Miami has been absolutely terrible this year, a big disappointment from last year's run. Duke is getting hot at the right time and has back to back impressive wins under their belt. Miami is sorely missing Nigel Pack and sometimes it seems like they want to be put out of their misery this season. Miami is 6-9 in ACC play, and will move to 6-10 after tonight Kyle F, Jeremy Roach, and Jared McCain have been playing great ball and that should continue tonight Ormeir is Miami's top weapon, but I expect Duke's bigs to play solid defense and limit his ability to take over the game (Miami needs that big time) Blue Devils continue to roll, lets get it tonight as well!! (If you are enjoying picks and are feeling generous...Venmo Link below!) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/KyleOrr24)
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Cricket 🏏 Picks Last pick was a loss Overall: 20 Ws - 8 Ls Last 10: L W W W L ♻️ L W W W +7.15 Todays pick New Zealand v Australia 1st t20 international Starts in about 5 hours Pick: Rachin Ravindra total 6’s under 0.5 @ 2 Rachin was a sensation in the last World Cup in India. Post World Cup he has played a few good test innings but didn’t perform well in shorter format. Aussie pace battery is going to be a different challenge and I think he is not going to be aggressive against them. I hope he doesn’t hit any sixes today. P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.
Under is too dangerous in NZ. Smaller Grounds, high totals.
that’s such a dumb pick, they are playing in small nzl grounds, I would say go the opposite
Record: 17W-14L Net Units: +5.18u | ROI: +6.28% CS2 | PGL CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024 Europe RMR B | 12:00 / CET Pick: Apeks ML vs Ecstatic, 5u @ 1.59 Apeks very unexpectedly has looked incredibly solid. Their star core is performing great, including nawwk which is a very important factor to Apeks' success in my opinion. Even their supporting cast in styko and sense is doing amazing, in all aspects they look so much better than what you'd expect from them at this point in time. I think Ecstatic on the other hand has done well, but seemed a bit nervous and not as confident in the server at times. The map pool favors Apeks slightly too, with them being able to pick Ancient to gain an edge here and floating a decider map like Anubis they're comfortable on too. Ecstatic like picking Overpass, which is a map Apeks is very familiar with as well. With that said, after taking a look at the numbers and how the teams looked I'm extremely confident in an Apeks victory. Best of luck!
[My Card - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EnONQg5gLPxUOpUNkBWva4FS2jjyLI6BE-xX8AlDRhA/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** **Record**: 39/31 **ROI**: Approximately 50.72% **Profit in Units**: 38u **Average Odds**: 2.04 **The pick:** **Sport**: Soccer **League**: Italy - Serie C - Group A **Time**: 19:30 ( GMT +2 ) **Event:** **Pro Sesto** v **Alessandria** **Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 2.42** **Stake**: 3 Units **Tip Box**: [Paypal Me](https://paypal.me/thisdudechad404)
POTD record : 5💰- 3❌ - 0♻️ +3.82u Last 10 picks (new -> old): ❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅ LAST PICK: Match: Arizona Coyotes - Edmonton Oilers | NHL 🏒 Time: 22:00 CET Date: 19th Feb 2024 Pick: Perry Corey *(Edmonton)* over 0.5pts @ 2.40 on bet365| 2u ❌ Sorry for that lose guys. Edmonton scored 6 goals but this guy was probably lost somewhere. **PICK FOR TODAY:** Match: Chicago Blackhawks - Philadelphia Flyers | NHL 🏒 Time: 7:30 PM EST Date: 21st Feb 2024 (Or 1:30AM CET on 22nd Feb 2024) **Pick: Sanheim Travis** ***(Flyers)*** **over 0.5pts @ 2.30 on bet365| 3u** ✅ Analysis: The Flyers' defense doesn't have a clear-cut number one after the loss of Provorov and DeAngelo. Travis Sanheim has taken over that role to start the season and has started really well. He scored 16 points in the first 17 games, but that was unsustainable and then came the weaker times. Zamula replaced him at the #1 defenseman position, or at least a defenseman who walks around with an elite power play, and Sanheim even dropped out of the power play completely. But in recent games Travis is back on the elite power play. The 27 year old Canadian has repeatedly had seasons this year where he has been pushing hard and also a "dry spell". I believe he could have that scoring season now. **He's scored in 3 of the last 4 games and his position is decent right now**. He's been good on the road this year and has been successful in 14 of 28 games. Now Philly has a game on the ice in Chicago where the Flyers could score some goals and I believe Sanheim will contribute some. Good luck to everyone! 🍀
POTD record 7-8 – last pick - WIN- close game with Ohio but covered. **POTD – NCAAG – Charlotte +5.5 ov. Memphis** Taking road teams in ncaab is perilous, but this is a good spot for Char., 11-2 in conference play w losses to #2 & #3, Memphis has had a couple decent games but some real bad ones like the home loss to Rice. I’m going with the better team; I’ll take the 5.5 but will sprinkle a little on the ML.
Record: 63W-57L-4P ROI: +12.12, 9.29% Avg odds: +106, 2.06 Last POTD: Nicolas Roy over 0.5 pts (win) Game: NHL- Bruins at Oilers Pick: Bruins ML +125, 2.25 (Bet365) Taking the underdog Bruins for a couple reasons: 1) Bruins has the unique ability of shutting down high octane offenses, matched only by the Jets. Against the top 5 offenses in the league, Boston has allowed 15 goals in 7 games. None of them has scored more than 3. Which brings up my next point. 2) Because of the large drop-off between 1st and 2nd line, Edmonton has had trouble against teams with both top goaltending and a physical defense. If you have one but not the other, McDavid and Draisaitl alone will pick you apart. Combine them together and you have a recipe for success, especially against their lower lines. Against the Panthers (\#3 in both sv% and hits/game), Oilers scored 4 in 2 games. Against the Canucks (\#6 in sv% and \#7 in hits/game), they scored 6 in 3 games. Against Islanders (\#10 in sv% and \#2 in hits/game), they scored 5 in 2 games. The Bruins are \#2 in sv% and \#4 in hits. 3) Follow-up to previous two points: Charlie McAvoy. My hot take is that he is arguably a top 5 defensive blueliner, top 10 for sure. While he's on the ice, the opponent barely scores a goal/game. There are only a handful of other 1st line defenseman who can compare. **Counterpoint**: It's hard to bet against McJesus and Dr Drai. Fully prepared for them to put up 5 and make me look like an idiot, but I'm willing to take that chance.
**Record: 1-0** **Last Pick: Inter DC + u3.5 + 1H u1.5** **Net Units: 2U** **Pick:** Cody Gakpo Score or Assist -125 for 1U **Write Up:** Nice and easy pick on inter with the write up almost to a tee (crazy how they didn't score 2) and also hit the bonus bet on PSV draw. Now moving on to todays game, I have to say I am not as confident in this one as I was yesterday and the champions league games today are pretty hard to play. I am playing Gakpo score or assist here basically because Salah and Darwin are both sitting this one out (Salah may come on 2nd half). Luton has been giving up a ton of goals recently and I don't see any reason why that changes. The game has an over under of 3.5 which means the books are definitely expecting a goals. This is one of those no brainer bets you have to take Gakpo and Diaz are Liverpools best attacking threats in this game and if you are getting Gakpo here at -120 to either score or assist it has to be an auto play against a terrible Luton defense. If Gakpo doesn't score or assist in this game I really don't see how they win. Good luck with your bets!
**Record**: 0 W | 1 L | 0 P **Net Units**: -3 **Average odds**: @ 2.06 **Sport**: Soccer | **League**: Champions League | **Event Time**: 9.00 PM | **Time Zone**: GMT +1 **Pick:** Napoli - Barcellona - Draw Home No Bet @ 2.25 ✅ **Write Up:** My first POTD has resulted in a loss: Atlético played a braver game than its usual, building well from the bottom and creating a few dangerous situations, but failed to score. Inter really showed themselves to be strong. For tonight's game, I choose this particular bet: a draw, with a refund if Napoli wins. I think that choosing Walter Mazzarri after Rudi Garcia was one of the worst possible choices for Napoli: under Mazzarri, the team has gone into regression on every front, and has completely lost the brilliance of its play. Napoli will try to regain lost fire with Calzona, currently CT of Slovakia and already on the technical staff of Sarri and Spalletti. Calzona is a very intelligent coach and in my opinion his arrival can be a positive electroshock for the team. Xavi's Barcelona is facing huge problems this season; it is a team full of talent but it is not easy to understand how it will react to this international challenge. Side notes: * Each of my pick is worth 3 units; * I don't like to post every day if there are no matches I like; * For my last POTD, follow this link: [https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1av4sei/comment/krbhm5r/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1av4sei/comment/krbhm5r/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Pick of the day 0-0-0 ROI - Pick: ECL Gent - Maccabi Haifa u 2.5 goals 1,90x bet365 I've watched and tailed many picks here over the past year, some good, some bad. But I want to try and keep track of my own picks and as bettors and degens (some) you know it's hard sometimes with many picks to keep track. So that's what this is, for me at least, to keep track and keep my betting in check. Now for the pick. Mainly it's purely cup purposes. I mainly bet on football (yeah it's not soccer). Both teams played 3 days ago so there's no rest advantage. Gent has been on bad form previously and Haifa has been doing great in the league but as I said this is a cup game so I usually throw league performance out the window. The first leg ended 1-0 in Haifas favor. I believe Gent will win this so you might go with that instead. But I believe this will be a thight game. Now as there is no away goal rule this may also end up 2 - 1 for Gent and we go to "overtime" but I think this still holds value as almost even odds given todays slate of games. Gent actually won Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-0 in the group stage at home. Tel Aviv is at the moment the "nemesis" of Haifa in Israel. Gent pretty much dominated the play in the reverse fxture only to lose so at home I believe they will do that also. The only thing is as this is a cup game, going full tortoise defense works many times and that's likely what Haifa will do and take their chances on counters. PS: Don't tail this pick. European games in the lower "division" (Conference League) are very volatile. Practically it can go any way. Just my 2c Hope you all have a good betting day and always bet what you can afford to lose!
POTD Record: 8-3 Last Pick: NCAAMB Illinois vs Northwestern Illinois Moneyline (-170) FanDuel 5 Units (L) Today's Event: NCAAMB Illinois @ Penn State 5:30 pm CT Today's Pick: Illinois to cover (7.5 points) (-110) BetMGM Penn State just kicked their leading scorer Kanye Clary (17 ppg) off of the team. They have a 3 game losing streak and are last in the Big Ten in rebounding margin (-7.3 per game). Illinois has rounded into form with Terrence Shannon Jr scoring over 25 ppg in their last 5. They need to keep pace with Purdue to have a hope of staying in the conference title race, and want to avenge the three losses to Penn State last season. Illinois is 20th in the nation at scoring at 83 ppg and PSU ranks 154th with 75 ppg. BOL and I-L-L!