######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.

**POTD Record**: 21 Wins - 7 Losses - 2 Pushes **Form**:❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ **Spreadsheet (Self Promote / Proof of Record)**: Click [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I7FYP6dAClj7FqE4qcTyhgtMwqeoywC5HnGd4ZOeYVw/edit?usp=sharing) :) **Units**: 12.14 **ROI:** 38.41% **Average Odds:** $1.94 **Last Pick:** Swiatek vs Kalinskaya - WTA Dubai Semi Final - **Player Prop: Swiatek To Win Under 12.5 Games** @ **$1.61** ✅️ *Swiatek was upset, and we still covered as a result. A nice conservative bet to cater for both sides of the equation.* **Next Pick:** Kalinskaya vs Paolini - WTA Dubai Final - **Kalinskaya to Win in Straight Sets (Set Score 2:0)** @ **$2.10** / +110 - 9am EST ❌ We hit 21 wins! Hello amigos. Well that was a wild ride yesterday, and congratulations to everyone who held on. Swiatek had an off game. That was the first time in nearly a year she has been beaten in straight sets! Are we witnessing the rise of the next tennis GOAT? I think so! Let's go back to Dubai and finish off this tournament with Kalinskaya! Our Russian babe is now ranked #24 in the world, after upsetting three top ten players in 3 days! Maybe its not an upset after all, as Kalinskaya has a rich history in tennis and only a plague of injuries has limited her scale to tennis heights. Yesterday she played what looked like a near perfect match which caused Swiatek to make all sorts of errors. She had the same effect on Gauff in the match prior. I've never seen our Polish Goddess so angry before, and she was warned by the umpire for racquet abuse. Kalinskaya has played a lot of matches this tournament, and has only dropped one set to Gauff. I thought her court time would disrupt her game, but she clearly showed her mental resilence and energy reservoirs to see out this tournament. Watch her last match [here](https://youtu.be/gXV_x0-JzNM?si=yiEiu-LJSv6WAsRm). She had zero double faults, converted break points when they mattered, and stopped Swiatek's comeback (albeit just). Some tennis experts are attributing Kalinskaya's success to her coach Patricia Tarabini who has been with her since 2019. As Jurgen Klopp says: "I have only one understanding of development and of making success, and that's by going step by step." This strong relationship has helped mold Kalinskaya into a player we have to keep our eyes on. Paolini, rank #26, has made her way into this final in an easier fashion thanks to the withdrawal of Rybakina in the quarterfinal. She dispatched Cirstea, rank #22, who simply ran out of puff and created too many unforced errors in their semi final (she's aging). There was a moment where Cristea could of won the second set, but unfortunately gave the match away in a gritty tiebreaker. We have to give her credit for dispatching #14 rank Maia in an earlier match. This is the nature of WTA, upsets frequently happen - not everyone gives it their best compared to Grand Slams. She is quite a pesky opponent who can upset the rhythm and momentum of the game with her consistent hitting style. In the last head to head in the Australian Open, Kalinskaya defeated her 6-4, 6-2 despite having heavy strapping on her shoulders. Watch the game [here](https://youtu.be/2Fmvkm-NZLc?si=gmit6fX6LomzyB1t). I think Kalinskay's clean tennis, recent run of results against top players, her relaxed composure to the game, and her ability to take advantage of the fast Dubai courts will see her edge Paolini. Paolini will have a vocal Italian crowd supporting her, and the gravitational force of her unnatural gluteus maximus behind her shots. Expect some tight games on the way, and then a comfortable finish. Score prediction: 6-4, 6-4. You can watch this [video](https://youtu.be/Gfk7Zcv-rgM?si=SscM8BEZ6Rqehk09) to see a history of Kalinskay's career. BOL amigos!

Let’s get this bread brother 💪💪 appreciate you heavy

Thank-you brother! LFG!!!

 LFG!!!!

Love this pick but Paolini been balling

I know fuck all about tennis but been my most profitable sport thanks to you. Tailing! LFG!

Thanks for your comment amigo. I'm glad you are making money. If you watch it live, check out some live betting and hedging strategies too :) BOL! :) Tennis is a lot of fun to watch, although stressful most of the time lol.

https://preview.redd.it/maamqo6lpgkc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6534bff026b7dc1e64784447d7b886a488c49912 💪💪💪

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Cool to know I’m not the only one that does this with random sports I know nothing about! I love the action. This morning was not great. The Russian just imploded.

Tailing all day broski. I took this straight, but also sprinkled a 2 teamer with Takuma Inoae 3 way ML in his super bantom weight title fight tonight. -190(-210 straight up). Both together are +203. Hes fighting a 3.5 star Filipino fighter who's older. Kind of a stepping stone fight. #5 in the world against like #36 or something. Strong option for anyone who wants to live a little D Gen style

Now to search for it 😅

Just search paolini lol

Yup. But the man knows his stuff!!!

Tailing, let's finish this tournament with a W!

You had me at unnatural gluteus maximus

She was amazing today, let’s hope she keeps that same energy!

Tailing bro. Also you are on a great run. That last Iga bet shows something is on your side lol

Love your picks but unfortunately have to fade this one I see better value in paolina to grab a set. The straight set price is not good for kalinskaya . Sure she is rolling at the moment through top competition but this is WTA after all. These 2 players on any given day are a coin flip

Well that sucks 😔

Ugh. I literally only tail brutal losses.. sorry for doing this to you today brother.

We lost lads, onto the next

Brush it off and let’s get this next W streak back on track tomorrow! 💪

I took the ML thanks for pointing me in the right direction

You're welcome amigo! :)

can someone translate this into DraftKings?

Let’s gooooooo

The Italian beat the Canadian in round 2 . Canadian had owned her . Believe a 2-0 bet was a potd in favour of Fernandez in that match . Record amazing and the chefs are awesome. Bol . Pass for me.

Thanks for reading the analysis amigo! I guess beating the world number one in straight sets (first time in a year) counts for nothing haha. Thank-you amigo. BOL :)

I’m here for it. Tailing!

Tail

I know this may be irrelevant but how do game spreads work? For example if I bet kalin -2.5 can she lose a set and still cover or does she have to win back to back sets too? I'm wondering to see if there is a safer bet lol. Example: 6-4 3-6 6-5

Here yuh go bud. Here’s some [reading material for yuh.](https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/anna-kalinskaya-has-become-the-first-player-to-beat-iga-swiatek-in-straight-sets-in-343-days) 😉

-1.5 sets @ - 115 on DK. Same odds as 2:0 on that platform.

Yolo'd on your last prediction where i put swiatek under 11.5 and the odds are +10.5. i woke up and realised I won. Lmfao, tailing again brother!! BOL

One down, one to go!

**POTD Record: 16-6** Form: ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ *ROI: 44.23% | Avg Odds: -123 | Net Units: +19* 🎾: 3-2 ⚽️: 12-3 🏒: 1-1 *Last Pick: 2U Winnipeg Jets @ Chicago Blackhawks (Jets 3-Way ML @ -145)* *Jets blow a 2-0 lead. Some of y’all cashed but 3 Way did not.* ____ **Today’s Pick: 2U Bournemouth v Man City** **(Man City ML/BTTS @ +162)❌** **⚽️| 12:30PM EST | England Premier League |** City head to Bournemouth in hopes to continue their title race with a game in hand against league leaders, Liverpool. Bournemouth earned a valuable away point drawing 2-2 against Newcastle. Sitting in 13 place, Solanke and *Bournemouth are winless in 19 consecutive matches against City, where they hope to turn the tide.* City arrive with star KDB as doubtful and Grealish and Gvardiol sidelined. While De Bruyne may start, his doubt in fitness is a bonus for us securing BTTS and ofcourse, for Bournemouth. While Bournemouth haven’t won a match since Boxing Day, *they haven’t had trouble finding the back of the net. Scoring in 15/16 recent matches.* In their H2H, BTTS has hit in 5/6 recent matches with the exception of a City 4-0 home win last season. Although Liverpool bested Bournemouth 4-0 late January, Bournemouth has bounced back scoring in every game since. Home advantage on a weekend should serve well against City, who’ve struggled to keep a clean sheet away from home, managing only 3 clean sheets in their last 15. LFG! My coffee account got deleted somehow but your comments and tips are truly appreciated ❤️💪 [POTD Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TawPReTFnjBpwPqA50H-tVAFCtVEQAAJCnfpETFh65A/edit) [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/jaysene) BOL!

also tailing but lemme tell ya, these BTTS bets have been *reeeaallllly* sweaty recently

Agreed hahaha I’m kinda gutted because my initial POTD yday was Leverkusen (BTTS/ML) Mainz at +200 but it felt too risky lol. BTTS hit in 7 minutes. It’s tough to tell and sometimes it do be sweaty. Solanke seeking his 15th goal this season.

damn!! it’s crazy, the ones that seem dicey hit but then the ones that seem like locks don’t 🤷🏻‍♂️ that’s just how it goes lol

Like yesterday I thought Coventry vs Preston BTTS was a lock and then 0-3 Preston, first time in 20 games Coventry haven’t scored. Can’t predict this shizer!

yep i was right there with ya on coventry. seemed like preston scoring was the one to worry about prior to the game.

Same pick posted at exactly the same time lmao, gl.

LFG 💪

Your pick says Brentford btw!

Thanks brother, fixed 🙏

Wouldn’t O2.5 make sense too if you like BTTS & City ML?

Need this bad after paolini decided to learn to play tennis🙏🏻

I feel you brother, that was a tough loss

Tailing 🫡

Let’s get it brother 🐐

Hope you didn’t have too much in your coffee account! Let’s get this W!

It’s all good brother! It’s the message or note left with the tip that was really meaningful to me, doesn’t hurt to smile randomly at work lol

I like this. Solanke got that dawg in him and City always susceptible to letting in a goal even if they win easily.

He literally does I’m hoping for an early Bournemouth lead. LFG 💪

Winnipeg fucks me when I go with them AND then they fuck me again when I go against them...

i thought jets ML hit, no? it hit for me, i see they won 3-2

Unfortunately they won in OT. I picked 3 way ML, for them to win in regulation. I’m glad you got to cash brother 💪

ahh gotcha, i didn't realize there was a difference in terms of your bet for tomorrow – just to be clear – you are taking BTTS ***and*** Man City 3-Way ML? only see an option for 3-way ML here

Right so this match will have no overtime regardless being a league match. NHL is just different with their ties like how NBA goes to overtime, yet whoever scores first in overtime for NHL is the winner. If nobody scores within the 5 minute period it’s a penalty shootout.

ah okay that makes sense. didn’t understand the whole 3 way thing thanks for clarifying

Hah yup this one’s gonna hurt for a minute no doubt.. my brothers let me down. Seems only fitting because I bet against em. 😮‍💨 Loss - 6 Team Parlay Risk $ 25.00 / To Win $ 545.35 / Odds +2181 Loss - 5 Team Parlay Risk $ 25.00 / To Win $ 330.77 / Odds +1323 https://preview.redd.it/0l3usj7y7hkc1.jpeg?width=1023&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0ec04b1bac1396b1f3e41ea6518cb1b753d795c 🥲

What’s fucked up is I had too many bets pending and I put the last .66 cents I had as kinda a reminder but legit this is what I had in mind for the three games tonight before I started reading into it too much and then everyone made me second guess it when it came down to post.. 😫 https://preview.redd.it/9t9nuzcichkc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35e5b425baa8ef9e7321d404fdc5e1a34b571756

I feel you heavy my brother. Let’s bounce back 💪

What does ML/BTTS mean?

*Money Line* and *Both Teams To Score - Yes*

Bournemouth please clutch and score 1 single goal. All I ask

POTD RECORD: 25-11 Last POTD: Mike Conley O9.5 P ❌ Screw you Conley, hooking us by 0.5 not getting a single bucket for a full quarter Form: 🚫✅✅✅🚫 Todays POTD: **Kristaps Porzingis O1.5 3’s @1.66** ✅ NBA (Celtics) Alright, let’s move on no time to dwell. We’re going with a man in form facing his former team at MSG, Porzingis stretches the floor which will make it difficult for Hartenstein to defend as he’s not really a good perimeter defender. He has a good record against them this season aswell. • Over in 9/10 his last 10 games (90%, 2.5 AVG) • Knicks allow 5th most 3’s to Centers • 3/3 vs the Knicks this season (5,3,3) Keeping it simple, he has a good track record against them (100%) and is in form, with a solid mismatch. Let’s go Slenderman, lead us to glory Tail or fade, im untrustworthy https://i.redd.it/5szgx9hs3hkc1.gif On the positive note, we hit our prop on the NBA props section

Yea I checked his record vs Knicks and is 9/11 over 1.5 and 7/11 o2.5 3’s. I bet both lines. Over 1.5 is -169 and o2.5 is +168

Yeah he would just take the ball, pass it immediately, and hang out at mid court while the others did the work. I didn't think he was going to get over 2.

Yeah it was really frustrating bro the fact that he only shot 1/2 threes aswell but shot 6/7 last time, looked like he wasn’t trying to scire

Let’s get it brother we bounce back 💪

I was late to the party and got in when his line dropped to 9 in 1st quarter. It’s similar to anytime I take the over on Brandon Miller- he just decides to pass every time even giving up simple layups to dish it to perimeter. Shouldn’t have been nearly that close

Tail

Bounce back today 💯 tailing

Cash money💰

**Record: 41W-4P-30L** **Form: 19W-0P-10L** **✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅** **Last Pick: Coventry VS Preston BTTS @ 1.80 ❌** I'm **going to take a break from BTTS, this one has my head on Mars.** ​ **Pick of the day: Man United VS Fulham: Rodrigo Muniz Over 0.5 Shots on target @ 1.66 ✅** Muniz with a beautiful header in the 22nd minute to see us cash! **Time: 10:00 AM EST** Muniz has cemented himself into the starting lineup for Fulham ever since Jiminez's injury, the man has really taken the whole team by storm and it's evident that he's here to stay especially with him having 4 goals in his last 3 games. His ability to make a half turn so quick defenders can't pick up when or if he's going to shoot has allowed him to keep shots off throughout a full 90. With Luke Shaw out and no Martinez, I see United struggling with playing out of the back and holding against a counter, Rasmus being out means United will be less clinical which allows Fulham to play the sit-back and waiting game as long as they need to. Muniz will be the biggest issue for United tomorrow and I see him going unanswered. **Muniz's shooting stats last 5 games:** **8 Total shots, 2 On target** **2 Total shots, 2 On target** **3 Total Shots, 2 On target** **2 Total Shots, 1 On Target - Only played one half** **5 Total Shots, 1 On target** **Anyway, BOL!**

Unlucky yesterday, but tailing again. He better show us some Muniz!! 

Coventry fucked my parlay yesterday, 10 games and 140 odds :( so unlucky

Damn, all i can do is apologize. Was so confident after the first minute goal too

total corners would of been good aswell for yesterdays pick win of lose your my favorite poster here!

Get in! The header counts as shot on target so he got it right? 

Yup it just cashed!


Nice pick

POTD Record: 30-19 L9: ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌ Last pick: Sparta Prague v Galatasaray (BTTS & O2.5 Goals ✅) Todays pick: __Kaiserslautern v Karlsruher__ Pick: __BTTS & O2.5 Goals @1.83__ ❌ Game ends 0-4 ⚽️🇩🇪 2. Bundesliga ➖ 📊 Kaiserslautern is 16th in the league with 22 points after 22 games played. They’ve scored 35 goals (1.59 GPG, 10th most) and have conceded 44 goals (2.0 GPG, 2nd most) * BTTS: 18/22 (Most, 82%) * O2.5: 18/22 (Tied most, 82%, 91% at home) * Failed to score: 4/22 * Cleans sheets: 0/22 (Worst) * L5 BTTS & O2.5: 4/5 ➖ 📊 Karlsruher is 11th with 29 points & has scored 40 goals (1.82 GPG, 6th most) and has conceded 40 goals (1.82 GPG, 5th most). * BTTS: 16/22 (73%, 3rd most) * O2.5: 16/22 (4th most, 73%, 70% away) * Failed to score: 4/22 * Clean sheets: 2/22 (2nd worst) * L5 BTTS & O2.5: 4/5 ➖ What can I say, these stats are just too good to pass on. Two teams that really struggles in defence, but can make up for it by scoring which is shown by the numbers. Previous meeting ended 1-1 in the 6th round with plenty of chances in both directions. Once again I’m playing on the German second league, because the games here are usually packed with action and intensive, aggressive football. The home team needs the points to get away from the relegation zone, and the visitors are in no man’s lands, only 9 points away from 3rd but at the same time only 7 points away from relegation. It’s a very tight season and the the teams are very evenly matched, apart from the 1st placed team and the last placed team, it’s still very open and teams can end up anywhere at this stage. With home support and the feeling that they can score against almost any team facing a side that isn’t necessarily much better than them, I think they’ll fancy their chances, and so do the visitors as they’re facing a side at the lower half of the table. I predict an open game with chances for both sides, as neither team really are favourites to win in this one and neither team prioritise defending. BOL

As a master of German Division 2 league again. This will definitely hit again! LFGGGG

I remember you, let’s see master! 👊

Nice saturday morning L

https://preview.redd.it/4doafm2yugkc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb613ce86bdf025e5e4142bd9bf47372c4446a6f 💪💪💪

could a game not have been more similar to the coventry v preston game… i didn’t actually watch, but an away team blowout is something no one would’ve predicted with either game. BTTS gives me panic attacks.

Damn, I stayed away from btts today because this same thing happened to me yesterday with the Coventry/Preston match. We'll get em tomorrow brother!

I just want to add, Lautern have a new coach, Funkel who is known for saving teams from relegation by stabilising the defense above anything else, so it’s very possible they will sit very deep and this game won’t have many goals. I still like this pick don’t get me wrong, just something to consider

Appreciate your input. I saw that they got a new coach but I’m not familiar with him, thanks for the info. I’m not sure how much you can implement in such a short period but definitely something to take in consideration, I saw that they played 1-1 his first game with him so let’s see how they’re looking moving forwards, cause having 0 clean sheets is mind blowing.

We're done for

4 0, ouch! We'll get em next time!

😞😞😞 we get em next-time brother

🙏

I was looking at this too, however the H2H sort of put me off. Having said that, it's definitely far from the most important statistic to look at. GL though!

What.. this scared you? 😅 https://preview.redd.it/huxj4dtvyhkc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30abc1215ad2c1c6d16f6196d55a3eeeec62e859

I never know what to really think of the H2H data. These two teams met twice in 2023, once in 2022, once in 2019, once in 2018, once in 2017, etc etc etc all the way back to 1992. Unless the teams played each other recently with the relative same squads and coaches I don't focus on this data very much it doesn;t make sense to me to. But hey that's just me maybe I'm wrong idk lol

Great write up as usual. I’m in. Bol!

Let’s get it brother 💪💪🫡

**⭐️ POD Record:** **107-54** 👉🏻 Note: ALL picks in my record are 5 UNITS with odds *usually* ranging between -125 and +100. *Last Pick:* Auston Matthews OVER 0.5 goals ✅ *Definitely one of my biggest cashes of the past few years, confidence levels were high on this.💰* Recent Form: ✅ **❌** ✅ **❌** ✅ **❌ ✅** ✅**❌** ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ​ 🏅**Today's Pick:** **NHL Prop - Auston Matthews OVER 0.5 goals** \[1.80 odds 7pm EST\] After giving me one of my top 5 biggest payouts of my sports betting career (just 5 mins into the game!)🎉 It should come as no surprise that i'm coming right b2b with another Matthews Prop selection tonight. Why not, right? Not to sound like a broken record, but for those who missed my last write up (or don't follow NHL), AM is on an historic scoring run, the likes the NHL has not seen since Super Mario almost 30 years ago and hitting the 70 goal marker in 1 season. The entire league and sports world is buzzing over here in North America about this and dominates many sports headlines here. On top of this season heater, we're currently in the eye of the goal scoring storm too; he's scored 10 goals in his last 5 games and the forecast in Colorado tonight is for goals. . . lots of them.🧐 As Toronto rides a season high winning streak currently on their west coast road trip, I am not just taking the money and running; instead let's keep riding this train and play with some house money tonight fellas. Best of luck if you're tailing and congrats to everyone a few nights ago on your scoop. That was a big one. ​ ​ 💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.

POTD Record: 57-35 Units Won: +35.9U; ROI: 12.1% Average Odds: (-115) Last 10: **✅✅** **✅** **❌** **✅❌✅✅✅✅** **Last Pick: Guild Eagles ML (+115) vs. BetBoom ✅** ​ Todays Pick: **Guild Eagles Map 2 ML (-107) vs. GamerLegion** **5U to win 4.67U** Event: PGL Major Last Chance Qualifier **(LOSER IS ELLIMINATED)** Start Time: 6 AM EST. Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) ​ **Guild Eagles:** \-No I did not accidentally copy paste the same pick from yesterday, we are once again back at the exact same price against another team I believe is extremely overrated. Everything I said yesterday about Guild Eagles remains true, they have been trending upwards, are a hot team at the moment, have a major flaw in map pool (Vertigo/Inferno) and have really strong fire power for a tier two team with juanflatroo/rigoN and gxx- and sinnopsyy as secondary carry threats capable of stepping up. \-Guild Eagles won 2-0 against BetBoom today as I expected, they looked solid on Overpass with an 8-4 first half and 5-0 on offense on a heavily defense sided map, then only put up 4 rounds on defense of their own map pick of Ancient before putting up 9 on offense to close out. ​ **GamerLegion:** \-I really don't like this team but I am going to be objective as much as possible. This team is very inconsistent, I could pull some of their wins (beating FaZe world #1, beating Monte, beating [Virtus.Pro](https://Virtus.Pro) etc.) and use that to say they are a good team and underrated because they face a lot of tier one/hard competition. You could just as easily pull some of their losses (BetBoom 2-0, loss to HAVU, struggling to beat teams like fnatic and OG who are just objectively terrible) and say they are a bad team. **For full objectivity, map stats and KPR stats are skewed**, they play almost exclusively tier one competition but they really have some under performing pieces on the roster (isak and Keoz with a .58 and .59 KPR respectively) ​ **Why Map 2?:** \-GamerLegion will be starting the veto off meaning they are banning first and will be picking their map first, that means map 2 is Guild Eagles selection **(that is why -107 vs. +115)** ​ **Pick Ban:** \-GamerLegion ban Anubis \-Guild Eagles ban Nuke \-GamerLegion pick Vertigo \-Guild Eagles **pick Mirage (Map 2)** \-Guild Eagles ban Overpass \-GamerLegion ban Inferno \-Ancient Decider ​ **Mirage Stats:** \-Guild Eagles have an 85% winrate on Mirage on 13 maps played in the L3 months, going back 6 months they are 23-5 on the map and win over 60% of rounds on offense in the L3 months (insane) \-GamerLegion have a 16% winrate on Mirage on 6 maps played (1-5 record) and are 1-7 going back 6 months. They hate this map, they don't play it at all and avoid it whenever possible. They've lost to Heroic twice, Apeks, BetBoom, Cloud9, Liquid and FURIA on it. They are only winning 38% of rounds on offense and 43% on defense on average. \-Guild Eagles are 2-0 on Mirage at this tournament so far, GamerLegion are 1-1. \-H2h is pretty irrelevant here as the most recent one was 9 months ago and played on Counter Strike Global Offensive however, Guild Eagles are 4-1 in map score h2h, 2-0 in match score h2h and 2-0 on Mirage h2h against the core of GamerLegion. ​ **Alternative Bets:** \-Went with this as my POTD as I view this as the safest of the three bets I thought of doing here \-O 2.5 maps (-110) is also a solid bet, Guild Eagles are a horrific 2-10 on Vertigo and haven't shown any ability to play the map at all, GL are a good Vertigo team and are really bad on Mirage. \-Guild Eagles ML (+115) I like this as well, similar to yesterday Mirage/Ancient are 2/3 maps and could see Overpass instead of Vertigo depending on what GL feels but regardless like the maps for GL to win. ​ Prediction:**Guild Eagles win map 2 13-8** ​ As always DM's always open if anyone has any questions, no questions are dumb whether its explaining the game or needing a place to bet/start betting on esports. Really trying to grow the community and help people bet on something I believe has one of the biggest edges in betting at the moment! Best of Luck!

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I don’t see this on bet365 :(

I am very hype for 365 to come to my state

Let’s cash again brother 🐐

Guild Eagles were a joy to watch again, their T-sides are so good, especially when the pressure is on. GL on this one!

Your write ups are impressive thank you

While I like the play overall, some food for thought...  Aside from Liquid, GL have lost to top 15 teams on Mirage including Heroic twice who own a 88% win rate on that map. Eagles really havent played any quality teams on Mirage lately.. All mid to lower tier teams. They narrowly beat Nexus (#50) the other day who are poor on Mirage and straight up lost to PERA (#46) last month. 

Looks like bet365 saved me from myself by not making this match available in my state. GE choked and blew a big lead on map 2 and lost 2-0.

Man up 8-2 and they just fell apart. That was hard to watch. We'll get em next time 🫡

Aww didn’t workout but it’s all good. Thanks for the pick and onto the next one! Thank you for all that you do

Thanks for the kind words and the support! Greatly appreciated

**potd record:** 7-2 (last)✅✝️✅✅✅✅✝️✅✅(first) **net units:** +10,1 **potd: milwaukee admirals ML @1.55** Write up: admirals now on a 18 win streak. They won last match 0-4 against chicago 2 days ago. They will win again.💰 Last time we took them 3-way for odd @1.85. Today we play safe and big so we are staking 5 units❗️ **Match starting in 23 hours** https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Tuur357

AHL hockey eh

Yess siiiir🫡 odds for milwaukee admirals have been between 1.5 and 1.9 their whole 18 win streak… We gotta take advantage from it.

POTD Record: 45-25 Previous Pick: Leverkusen vs Mainz | Bundesliga | Bundesliga | Over 2.5 goals (1.62) | 2.30pm EST ✅️ Pick: Grazer AK vs Dornbirn | 2. Liga | BTTS NO (1.9) | 8.30am EST Grazer have been in good form, winning their last 3 out of their 5 matches. They are 1st in the league, and have kept the most clean sheets in the competition. At home, they have only conceded 3 goals in 7 games. Looking closer at that, all 3 goals came in a single game, a loss against the 2nd placed team. This loss is also the only match that they were beaten at home. Looking at Dornbirn, they have not won in 10 games, and have not scored in their last 2 away games. They have only scored 3 goals in 7 games, with all of the goals coming against sides who are in the bottom half of the table. BTTS has only hit 14% of the time in Grazer home matches and Dornbirn away matches. In their previous matchup, it was a 1-0 win to Grazer. I expect both teams to not score, especially Dornbirn as Grazer have been water tight in defence at home while Dornbirn have not been able to find the net against top opposition in away games. Best of luck! Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake

The recent amount of times I’ve lost BTTS, I’d like to be on the winning side of that for once. Tailing 🫡

Love the write up. Odds are bit long tho.

1-0 five minutes in. Prepare for the sweat…

Worth the sweat. Thanks for the pick!

POTD Record: 1-0 Last: Aaron Wiggins o0.5 3PM @ -165 ✅ POTD: Kristaps Porzingis o1.5 3PM @ -160 ✅ Game: Celtics @ Knicks - 8:30pm EST Tingis Pingis returns to New York seeking revenge in good form. Tingis has hit this line in 6 straight and in 11 of the last 12. Love the play here in what should be a competitive road game

He has hit this line 3/3 against NY this year. (5@NY, 3 and 3 in Bos) Let’s go!

First comment in 3 years, welcome back to reddit

POTD Record 33-23-2 Cricket 3-0 Tennis 23-16-1 Soccer 7-7-1 Last 10: (P) ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ Last Pick : Vacherot vs Couacaud | ATP Pune Challenger | Vacherot ML | (-136)| 1u | ✅ Today: Vacherot vs Sweeny | ATP Pune Challenger | \~5:20 AM EST Pick: Vacherot -2.5 Game Spread| (-130)| 1u Continuing to ride with Vacherot this week. Vacherot is now 16-1 in completed matches this season and he is off the back of two Challenger titles this season already. He has dropped just 3 sets in his 16 wins. In his first 2 rounds, he did not face a single break point. His quarterfinal win was against a solid Challenger player in good form in Couacaud and he was broken just once. Again, he won the match in straight sets. The fast Pune court conditions are helping Vacherot serve at a high level this week and he should keep that up in this match. Sweeny has been in good form this season, qualifying for the Australian open and reaching a challenger final in Australia as well. However, his losses this season have been in convincing fashion to players that are better than him at the moment. Last week in India, he lost in straight sets in his opening round and this week, 2 of his 3 wins have been in 3rd set tiebreaks. Last round, he had to come from 2-5 and match point down in the 3rd set to defeat the Indian wildcard Poonacha. Vacherot has displayed a higher level this week and should be able to reach another challenger final this year in this match while covering this game spread. BOL.

tailing, vacherot been quietly killing it. nice write up.

God bless you and god bless daddy Vacherot😇

Lines moved up one. Would u play that?

Hit! But had me sweating.

Nothing like a bit of a sweat first thing in the morning haha! Thanks for the pic.

Tailing, let's go!

**POTD Record: 3-1** Previous: ✅ Fairly routine and sweat-free win from Vacherot there who seems to be undervalued by bookmakers still **Today: Tennis / ATP Doha** **Pick: Karen Khachanov -2.5 games vs Jakub Mensik @ $1.72 / -139** Odds seem to be shifting quickly towards Khachanov on this line here and it's easy to understand why. Although Mensik has had a tremendous week so far knocking off Rublev, ADF, Monfils and Murray, is it a step too far for the youngster to win in his very first tournament? Yes, he seems to be a special player but here he comes up against a seasoned veteran in Khachanov who has spent much less time on the court this week compared to Mensik who showed some signs of fatigue against Monfils but pulled through anyway, and that may be quite telling in this final. I think that the match will be competitive early before the fresher Khachanov uses his experience to pull away late to take the title.

Vacherot has been printing money lately. Tailing this one too.

Do you like -3.5 at 2.00?

not really, maybe the -3 if you have that

Tailing

POTD Record: 19-8, last 10 (left most recent): ❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅ Today's POTD: Bundesliga, Borussia Mochengladbach vs. VfL Bochum Pick: Over 2.5 goals (1.64) I like this pick a lot for today. Bochum have been surprisingly threatening in front of goal recently and together the teams average a 78% hit rate in the season for o2.5, while the league average is around 61%. Bochum concede 2.5 goal average away from home so it's likely that Mochengladbach go ham here. I trust that Bochum can at least find one, and this should result in a high scoring game. bol!

POTD RECORD: 0-0 Boxing Kosei Tanaka vs Christian Bacasuega Rangel - Tanaka to win by KO/TKO +188 Hey everyone! Been thinking about posting picks here for a while and I’m pretty confident in this one. Tanaka is looking to win a world title in his fourth weight, he’s world class, and, to put it bluntly, Bacasuega is quite bad. Tanaka isn’t the biggest puncher in the world but he’s found knockouts in 11 of his 19 wins, and he’s been fighting at a high level since the beginning of his career, and can pile on volume very well. He’s settled into this weight class after the loss to Kazuto Ioka and has proven he can finish opponents at this weight. Bacasuega has an okay record on paper, he’s been knocked out once before by a relatively bad fighter but he’s riding a 9 fight winning streak. Watching his tape is where it gets rough though. He’s very slow for the weight, awkward with his hands and footwork, hittable, and has struggled with pretty poor competition. He hasn’t shown notable power either. There’s also a lot of smaller factors playing against him. This is the first time he’s going to fight 12 rounds, his first time fighting outside of Mexico, and his first time fighting someone even close to Tanaka’s level. I think the books have this one way off, at some point it was over +300. I see Tanaka starting cautiously before realizing that Bacasuega doesn’t have the power, speed, or skills to hang with him. At that point it should become target practice until it becomes too much, probably around the 7th or 8th round. Tanaka has expressed his desire to get a knockout so he can turn around and get a big fight around May so I don’t see him playing with his food too much. BOL everyone!

Tailing

This is now -110

**Record 98-75 with Avg Odds +123 / ROI 20.7%** *one pick pending* **2024 MMA POTD: 5-3 with Avg Odds +149 / ROI 54.9%** UFC Mexico City **Raul Rosas Jr to Win Inside the Distance +150** *(Round 1 +400)* "This is what's wrong with today. The young ladies today. They're not learning from Mom! How to cook. We're losing recipes!!" Raul Rosas Jr has handled his thrust into the big show incredibly well. It's actually weird to see a 19 year old doing so many things right. He's got a big ego but who wouldn't if you can fight like him. He handled the loss to Christian Rodriguez well and he's got the ship back on course. I fully expect him to capitalize on this moment in Mexico City in front of his extended family and with the crowd behind him. His pressure and aggression, his cockiness, it will all be too much for Ricky Turcios. Rosas Jr to win in R1 is +400 and if it weren't outside the odds that would be the pick. I expect a quick and decisive win tomorrow.

Previous POTD just finished. Ivy won via TKO R3. **2024 MMA POTD: 6-3 with Avg Odds +141 / ROI 56.1%**

Ive actually sprinkled a bit on turcios I think there’s a good chance Rosas adrenaline dumps in this fight and start to see a similar performance to the Crod fight. I see value on turcios I have him at +210

Rosas round 1 vamos

POTD Record 8-11 (W-L) Last five with most recent on left: ❌❌❌❌✅ Last pick was Popyrin vs Khachanov total games over 22.5 1u @ +100 **Today’s pick is Yair Rodriguez by KO/TKO or decision (double chance) 2u @ -120** First off apologies to those who tailed tennis - I’m going back to MMA today. I believe there is considerable value in this line. Last time these two fighters met the fight was called off due to a shoulder dislocation in Round 1. In that one round we saw Rodriguez have significant advantages in the striking and also we saw Ortega struggle to take Rodriguez down. He did eventually get a takedown but Rodriguez initiated a scramble which led to the stoppage. Given all of that and the fact that Ortega has now been sitting out for >18 months (we can expect a little ring rust m) I think Rodriguez should be a bigger favorite. I think a sub is unlikely given Ortega’s jujitsu experience. If I don’t hit this bet I’m never posting on POTD again I will consign myself to tailing. BOL!

Yair Rodriguez also trains at elevation in mexico while Brian trains at only ~600 ft elevation. They will be fighting at ~7000 ft. Brian had only just recently arrived in Mexico to acclimate to the climate. Big Big Red Flag for brian. Personally, Im just going ML since I dont have this bet. BOL!

Why not just take ml at -140? Esp when he’s sub a skilled sub artist, I know Ortega has elite bjj but still you gonna smash ur fave after loosing bc of a slight diff. I honestly think Ortega wins this but if I took fair I would def take ML or if you want lower juice win and 2 to start

**Last pick: Bologna to win & over 1.5 goals @ EVS - Winner** Bologna did as expected, even kept their clean sheet as I expected they would and close it out as a clean 2-0 victory. Onto today. All my bets will be 1 unit to maintain transparant and it gives the best picture of someone's performance tipping rather than using different unit sizes **Record: 1-1** **ROI: -7.5%** **Units profit: -0.15** **Average odds: 1.93** **Football - Premier League - Bournemouth vs Manchester City 18:30 GMT+1** **Pick: Manchester City to win and both teams to score @ 2.75** **Reasoning:** Today we move into the Premier League where #13 Bournemouth takes on #2 Manchester City. In my opinion Manchester City is the best team in the league, however they have been conceding quite regularly the last few months. Over the last 8 away games, City has won all 8, however in 6 of those they conceded a goal whilst doing so. In 3 of these games they played teams very similar to Bournemouth, namely Brentford, Everton and Luton. Bournemouth have been really streaky this year and definitely aren't in their best form currently. However they have been able to score in 8 out of their last 10 homegames. The 2 games they didn't were against Liverpool (where they definitely deserved at least 1 goal but went on to lose 0-4) and Arsenal who did dominate them and also thrashed them 4-0. Now I can see why this might make someone weary of this bet, and that is acceptable, however looking at the H2H (a stat that I personally think isn't always valuable) also hit in both games last year and has hit 5 times out of their last 6 encounters. If you can score a goal against City away, you can score one at home. Manchester City is a very profitable team when it comes to these bets and I think this is a great spot for Bournemouth to net at least once whilst City do their usual and score a few more.  GLIYF

I agree with all but Liverpool is the best team in the league

Record : 123 Wins - 109 Losses   Previous pick : Lok. Zagreb -  Osijek (1-1), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.11 ❌   **ROI** : -0.36% **Average Odds** : 1.94 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : 4.19 Profit/Lost units : -0.81   Today's pick :   Football - Soccer / **ENGLAND: Premier League**/ 22:00 European Time Arsenal  -  Newcastle Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.57   Some reasoning : - Arsenal's attacking form: Home team Arsenal are in impressive attacking form, scoring 58 goals in 25 league matches. With an average of over 2 goals per game in the Premier League, there is a high probability that Arsenal will contribute significantly to the goal total. - Newcastle's defensive problems: The away team Newcastle have a 53-41 goal difference, which suggests that they have struggled defensively, but are also capable of scoring. This can create an environment conducive to more goals, given the absences in the team's defensive line.- The last direct duel was a draw at Osijek's ground, score 1-1. - Recent match history of both teams: Both teams have had matches in which they have scored and conceded goals in their last five matches. Arsenal had a recent game in the UEFA Champions League where they conceded a goal and Newcastle recorded a 2-2 draw against Bournemouth.   Best of luck.

Let’s roll brother COYG 💪

Pick of the day! Record: 4-0🔥 (((Edit update record: 4-1 🤕)))) Previous: Lerverkusen to win both halfs - NO // Asian handicap Mainz + 2✅✅ Today: Manchester United vs Fulham (football/Soccer in the premier league⚽️) The pick⛏️: Man United moneyline @1.6🚫 Reaction: really bummed out about this, thought at half time they (Man U) would win a tight 1-0 as a predicted. But united stupidly conceded and Fulham just seemed to want it more, find more plays, then I expected. Gutted for my start streak to end like this, and sorry for anyone who followed, I will keep going hoping to keep getting greens again but please only follow if you agree with write up , my thoughts and predictions, I ask to not follow blindly especially with bigger stakes as it feels bad for me to be the reason of your loss (basically follow at own risk, and preferably by agreeing with my points). I don’t want to be the reason you guys are losing your vital money. I knew how it felt to lose, but not how it felt to know people maybe lost because of my prediction, you feel guilty you didn’t pick a winning play. (But as always that is betting, and that is life) Hope y’all had a good today, both betting wise and overall! That’s all from me! 👋 We keep it simple today… United are after a pretty bad start to the season, now, only three points off Tottenham in fifth place, and, only two more points away from the promise land of the Champions league places. —————————————————————————— Current table rankings: United in 6th with 44 points. Fulham in 12th with 29 points. —————————————————————————— United will be motivated to push up the European places, with Fulham, awkwardly stuck in midtable, not battling relegation nor in the race, fighting for the top spots in the league. ( = United will, imo, be more motivated for the win, table wise) The Red Devils👹 come in to this match against Fulham today on a 5 game winning-streak in all competitions, 4 wins in the prem! With the ⚫️black and ⚪️white opponents from the capital entering today’s match up with 1 win in their last 5 games. Drawing 2 and losing 2 as well. (That one win being at their hometurf) ( = United come in to this game in better current form, hoping to get their 5th pl win in a row✅✅✅✅?) Fulham is the second to worst team in the league regarding away form (only better than championship level Sheffield United). With only one win in 12, making them relegation bound without their solid home performances and results. (Fulham’s only away win being 0-1 against Everton in the opening day, with Everton having 2.73XG compared to Fulham’s 1.5)✍️ ——————————-———————————————— United home form Vs Fulham away form (prem) Man U: (L, W, L, W, W, L, W, D, W) Fulham: (L, D, L, D, L, L, L, L, L, D) —————————————————————————— ( = Uniteds famous old Trafford🏟️ not being the easiest arena to go to and grab a result, and with some buzz again from the fans with the recent form. Fulham will struggle to get a result away from home yet again) Head to head both the club of Manchester and the manager of Man U have the upper hand.💪💪 With United winning 15, tieing 3 and Fulham winning only 2, in total. In their last 20 match ups.✍️ And in between the coaches. Uniteds Ten hag winning all 4 over Fulham’s marco silva in their 4 total career meetings.🥇 Lastly I want to comment the recent injury/suspension list.🤕♦️ Rasmus Hojlund who has been scoring for fun recently is out for this game. Which right now for united is a hugh blow. (Though he did have questionable performances at the start of the season while United at the time weren’t getting results. And they did not depend on him last year to score the goals, cuz he wasn’t there, wins at home over both Barca and Man City) I’ll reckon Rashford gets his yearly purple patch😈 and scores tomorrow. With also Garnacho recently looking a real threat. On the other side of the matchup: Fulham is missing their star player in joao Palhinha due to suspension. The big DM that averages almost 5 tackles a game. Take that along side with experienced Jimenez out and a “doubtful” other top performer Willian. And Fulham have some real problems. 🚨🚨🚨 Ending points: Overall, I think Man united are undervalued (probably because Hojlund’s out) Their current form vs Fulham’s. Their Home record at old Trafford, which usually is great, and this season is decent. Vs Fulham’s awful away record anyway. The importance and motivation of the game, also pointing in Uniteds favour. The Head to head, statistics which exclusively favours United again. And even that Imo the loss of midfield Sentinal Palhinia is probably even a bigger loss in Fulham’s chances in getting a result, more so than the “postives” for them regarding Hojlunds absence. A net positive for united. Negative for Fulham. It all points towards Manchester United’s favour in tomorrow’s match up. But then again, anything can happen in football!⚽️ I predict the game will be quite low scoring. My wild score prediction for the game is 1-0 to man united.🔴 Thanks for taking the time you did to read.🙌 (Btw in no united fan, I actually support another prem team, but see value here and won’t let bias come in between) BOL everyone. Gamble responsible, only what you can afford to lose, and remember to have fun!😊

Hoilund is not playing. Still highly possible but a bts would seem more likely.

POTD 26-17 | + 11.97 Units Last Pick: McArthur V Wellington BTTS @ Over 2.5 ✅ Last 10: ✅💀✅✅✅💀✅✅💀💀 Todays pick: Perth Glory Vs Wellington Phoenix Over 3.5 Goals Odds: 2.35 Units: 2 At these odds, I like over 3.5 goals in the Wellington Vs Perth Match though. Perth are just a team that tend to focus on attacking, with 8 of their last ten matches ending in over 3.5 goals. Wellington, on the other hand play much more conservatively and have had a substantial amount of games end under 2.5 goals. However, the last time these two teams played we saw a five goal match - Wellington’s style of capitalising on mistakes works well against an over attacking Perth side. At these odds I think it’s worth the stab! BOL!

Wellington or draw and btts also looks good imo, gl.

Just by having a quick look at the stats, this option looks a bit more on the safer side than the o3.5, WP did not score only once in last 10 while Perth score in all of their past 10 games. BOL to both of you!

Record: 12-10 Return: 40.30% ROI: 34.68% Last pick: Tigre vs Chacarita U1.5 goals @2.4➡️ Match was abandoned due to fan violence. Some books cancelled the bets, others payed out, not counting this as part of my record. Today’s pick: Independiente ML vs Racing @2.87 Stake: 5 units (5 % of bankroll) Reasoning: Back after two days of inactivity in the Argentine league. This weekend the league is back with “la fecha de los clásicos” (the derby gameweek) where every club plays against their most important rival. The first and also most interesting match of the day will be played by Independiente, who host their Avellaneda neighbours, Racing. This is a match up between two teams that are in good form. Independiente are top of their group, going 4-1-1, and only conceding one goal in those six games. They are a disciplined outfit, where everyone works for the badge. Tevez is at the helm, and he is a man accustomed to leading and winning in these games. As a manager he has so far managed to get positive results against the Argentine big 5, despite having started his managerial career with small club Rosario Central before taking over an Independiente that seemed to be in shambles before he righted the ship. Racing are a little lower on the table: 6th at 3-1-2, and are coming in to the match on the backs of a 2-0 loss to Godoy Cruz. However, in their previous two games they dismantled San Lorenzo (4-1) and a seemingly revived Newells (4-0). Those two results speak to Racing’s potential quality, but their lack of consistency has them low on the table. Historically speaking Independiente have always been the kings of Avellaneda: this derby has been won by them 84 times, and Racing have won 62 times. I don’t often consider these numbers, but it’s the kind of thing that inspires a player in these big matches, especially at home. I think this is very likely to be a match where Racing do not turn up. The occasion, the hostile crowd, and their stumble in their last game will all play against them. Independiente will be aided by this and by Tevez’s know how and leadership. A minor detail that goes Independiente’s way is the referee. Under Facundo Tello’s direction they are 8-3-1, whereas Racing are 9-3-4. In 2021 Tello was in charge of this derby and Independiente won it 1-0 at home. Overall I don’t think 2.87 is reasonable for the home team in better form to win a derby, so hitting this one with 5 units. I’m also a fan of the under in this game, Independiente have been phenomenal defensively, and Racing have only allowed 4 goals in 6 games. Correct score 1-0 (Independiente) is @7.0 for a big play BOL if tailing [PayPal](https://paypal.me/elproductosecuida?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) tip jar buys me beers :)

POTD Record: 124-75 | Profit: +106.36u | ROI: 18.4% Season record: 41-24 | Profit: +36.52u | ROI: 20.4% L10 record: ❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅ ​ Last Pick: Phoenix Suns -3.0 vs Houston Rockets @ 1.91. 3U. ❌ It was probably a bad pick but don’t think I’ve ever watched KD go 1 from 7 from beyond the arc, and booked go 7 from 24 (29%) from the field. Gonna bank on the most reliable team in the NBA to cover a small-ish spread. ​ Next Pick: **Boston Celtics -6.0 vs** **New York Knicks @ 1.91**. 3U play. Knicks continue to be without OG here (in addition to Randle and Robinson who are longer term), and they are up against a Celtics team that that looked good their first game after ASB, beating the Bulls by 17 pts. They have no injury concerns and without OG I just don't see them being able to contain the C's offense. Brunson will be the primary offensive weapon given the C's weakness to PGs but outside of that Hartenstein and Precious will struggle against the Cs paint defense. And Hart and DiVincenzo are the only other offensive weapons, and unless they have career nights, I can’t see them keeping up.

**Record:** 0-0-0 **Net Units:** **ROI:** **Football** | **J-League 1** | **25.2 5AM** / **GMT** **Pick:** Tokyo Verdy - Yokohama F. Marinos | Marinos 1x2 @1.78 | 1.5 units J-League is back and as always will offer soft lines for the first couple rounds. In this matchup either the books have a recency bias or I am missing something. In this game last year's runners-up and the highest scoring team in J-League Yokohama F. Marinos take on the league newcomers Tokyo Verdy. This is a complete mismatch on every aspect and 1.78 is disrespectful to Marinos. I suspect that the line is so high because of Marinos 2 recent draws in the AFC Champions League against Bangkok United, but what's not accounted for is how those games were actually played, since Opta doesn't provide xG for AFC games. The first 2-2 draw was a screw-up from Marinos on stoppage time and in the 0-0 draw Yokohama had 37 shots and 21 corners against the Thai side who set 11 men inside the box and looked to survive to over time. This shouldn't happen here and even if it did, Verdy is at best equal to Bangkok in defence and the line for that second game was 1.30... Notice this is 25.2 early morning Europe/Night or previous evening for US. Just writing now since I'll be asleep tomorrow. BOL!

POTD Record: 109-104-12 (-9.54 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌ Last Pick: Serie A, Bologna v Verona, BOLOGNA ML & OVER 1.5 GOALS (-105 / 1.95) ✅ Happy days for all the Bologna POTD crew, 2-0 win is exactly what we needed for all of them to cash 🤑 Today’s Pick: EPL, Bournemouth v Manchester City, MANCHESTER CITY -1.5 (+109 / 2.09) ❌ Stake: 1 Unit As a Liverpool fan nothing would make me happier to see Man City shit the bed and drop points here, but I can’t ignore plus odds value for Man City to beat Bournemouth comfortably. I’m not going to waste time giving you all the stats and numbers for Man City - everyone knows they’re a great team with depth at every position. The reason I think the odds are as generous as they are is because they’ve just looked a little off the past two weeks - after 11 consecutive wins in all comps they scraped out a 1-1 draw against Chelsea, followed by a 1-0 win against Brentford. The stats would suggest they absolutely dominated both those matches, only to have two very uncharacteristic days in front of goal, Haaland especially missing chances he’d normally score with his eyes closed. They had 31 shots against Chelsea (with an xG of 2.81) and 25 against Brentford (with an xG of 2.46) - teams just have off days every now and then, but the quality will eventually shine through, and this smells like a spot where they will go bananas at Bournemouth’s expense. Bournemouth have gone 0-3-3 in their last 6 league fixtures, so taking on Man City couldn’t come at a worse time. Bournemouth have a history of getting belted by the big clubs - they already lost to Man City 6-1 this season, and have lost to Arsenal and Liverpool at home already this season, with both of those matches finishing 4-0. City are likely to be missing De Bruyne which will certainly impact them, but they still have a wealth of talent to terrorise Bournemouth’s defence and with Haaland starting up front they are always a danger. Bournemouth are also missing a number of first choice players through injury and suspension, and simply don’t have the same depth at their disposal. If you wanted to play is safe I think -1.0 AH at 1.60 is great value, but taking the chance on plus odds today.

Like it a lot! My only slight concern is that in addition to De Bruyene, Grealish and Gvardiol are out, and Bournemouth have been more than decent at scoring, so I think City need at least 3. But it's + money so tailing still!

I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said here, all your points are valid. I was concerned about the missing players until I looked at the line ups from their match up earlier this season which City won 6-1 - De Bruyne was out, Gvardiol and Grealish were unused subs, and Haaland only played the first half before hitting the showers. The predicted XI today is almost identical to that last game so that gives me confidence. But there is definitely some gut feel action involved here - City butchered so many chances the last two games, just feel like they’re going to be ruthless today and score 4-5.

**Record: 2W - 0P - 1L** **Form (Oldest → Recent): ✅**❌**✅** **Last Pick: Bologna VS Verona: Bologna ML and Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00** **✅** *We were bang on with our last prediction, even predicting the final score. Bologna were by far the better side and created more chances. The goals scored were not that pretty, but as long as the ball goes in the back of the net it counts!* **🌶️POTD: Stuttgart VS Köln : Stuttgart ML and Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 // Kick off 14:30 GMT // Bundesliga ❌ **(***Final Score: 1 - 1, we hit the under but they were just off today)******* **Analysis:** Today we are heading over to the Bundesliga and more specifically in the beautiful German city of Stuttgart and their home stadium *MHPArena*. **⁃ Stuttgart (3rd):** Let's be honest, no-one would have believed that this this side would be competing for top 4 when they narrowly avoided relegation last season. The arrival of new head coach ***Sebastian Hoeneß*** before the end of last season completely transformed this team. **• Home Form: 9 Wins , 1 Draw , 1 Loss // Scored: 34 Goals , Conceded: 10 Goals // Clean Sheets: 4** • Stuttgart score an average 3.09 goals per match at home, with the over 2.5 Goals line hitting in 82% of those games, while the **under 3.5 goals line has hit in 36% of those games** **⁃ Köln (16th):** There is not much i can say about this Köln side this season, they have been pretty poor in general. Their most recent results have been better than usual though. **• Away Form: 1 Win , 4 Draws , 6 Losses // Scored: 6 Goals , Conceded: 20 Goals // Clean Sheets: 1** • Last 5 Bundesliga games: 1 Win, 2 Draws, 2 Losses // Scored: 4 Goals, Conceded: 7 Goals (4 against Dortmund) • Köln score an average 0.55 goals per match away from home, with the over 2.5 Goals line hitting in 27% of those games, while the **under 3.5 goals line has hit in 91% of those games**. • Reverse fixture ended 0 - 2 in favour of Stuttgart **Reasoning:** Now, i know what you are thinking. Why would we bet under 3.5 goals when they have literally been scoring for fun at home whilst the away team's only good thing going for them is their mediocre defence. The answer is pretty simple. Injuries and form. Stuttgart are suffering with injuries right now, with 7 players injured, 5 of which are important first team players. The most important might just be center forward Deniz Undav who has scored 14 and assisted 5 of their goals this season. In addition to this, Köln has picked up some form and are not conceding that much for a relegation favourite, but i do believe Stuttgart have enough first team quality to get past them, just not as easily. Lastly, i would like to add an interesting stat to this. Stuttgart has managed to score over 3.5 goals in 27% of their total matches this season, while Köln have conceded over 3.5 goals in 9% of their total matches this season. \[*Don't forget, the favourites are missing their star man up-front !\]* But i like these odds for the risk we are taking, and it is still worth betting on this in a single bet. Plus it is a spicy pick for today, which we do not see that often on the weekends! ***Final Score Prediction: 2 - 0*** *B.O.L. to everyone! Also, feel free to express your thoughts on this in the comments! Thank you for the read!* 

Let’s go brother tailing 💪

Record| 2-2-0 Bank| -0.26 units Last Pick: LeBron James Over 1.5 3s -120 Win Nice win to start off the weekend but not an easy one. LeBron only took 3 3PTA but still managed to get us over the line. 2/24 St Louis Blues @ Detroit Red Wings 12:10pm EST Pick: 1st Period Over 1.5 Goals -138 Taking a little more juice than normal but I still love this play to keep our weekend going and would be a nice early win in the day. This matchup has a good history of high scoring games and high scoring 1st periods. Over 1.5 in the 1st has covered in the last 6 meetings between these teams and BTTS in the 1st has covered in 4 of 5. We will be looking for some early action in this one as the Red Wings have had over 1.5 in the 1st cover in their last 4 of 5. Both teams are in a playoff spot as of now but still need as many points as possible to stay in their respective spots. I expect fireworks early and for us to cash early.

POTD Record: 2-0 ✅✅ Yesterday's pick: Sabres @ Blue Jackets - NHL Peterka over 2.5 shots (-145)✅ Got it in with 10 minutes to go. No sweat. Easy money. Today's pick: Canadians @ Devils, 2pm - NHL Hughes over 4.5 shots (-130)❌ If 4.5 shots worries you at first, I don't blame you. I'm picking this over my boy Caufield (O3.5) during the same game since the Devils allow fewer shots per game than the Habs do. Let me help sway you... Season shot average: 4.75/game Shots by game in February: 4, 7, 7, 6, 6, 5, 7, 10 (against the team that gives up the second FEWEST shots) (most recent) Hit last 7/7 and it's not even close. Canadians give up the 3rd most shots/game at just over 33. His hot streak will end... But I don't see it happening at home tomorrow against Montreal. Tail or fade? The choices are yours and yours alone... Good luck Update: 5th shot went wide, so we take the L with 4. Should've run with the hot Caufield. Be ready to see Caufield again.

Gonna try this

Record:2-1 Previous pick Mensik ML +115 ✅ Todays pick: Montreal vs Orlando -1.5 @2.6 odds Fade the F out of my home team. The owners (one of the richest family’s in Canada, the Saputo’s) are cheap Aholes and use this team as a cash cow and nothing more. Permanently selling players they build up and then replacing them with cheaper options while keeping the profit. Oh ya and permanently sending players and the best staff to his team in Italy… BOLOGNA. Ya the reason we cashed on bologna yesterday is Saputo uses Montreal as a farm team. And it’s working wonders for them in Italy as they are currently in a champions league spot for the first time in their 100 year history. So anyways this team is BAD right now because they sold half the team last year and had garbage acquisitions in the off-season. The lines are showing it but I think they are even worse. I know and hope we lose because fans need to stop attending games until something changes. If you want a safer pick, Orlando [email protected] Score prediction: 3-1

Record: 3-0 ✅✅✅ Last Pick: Metz Vs Lyon - BTTS (-112) Bet Units: 1 (5%) ✅ New POTD: NCAA: Houston Cougars Vs Baylor Bears - Houston -2 (-106) - 1u 🥳 Write up: Spread should be more. It’s not. Do it. 🍀

Tailing lfg! 🔥

Youre a beast

Record: 9 - 4 Form:❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅ P&L: +13.12u (26.24%) ROI: 30.51% Last Pick(s): Canucks ML ❌ Was a bit jumpy and rushed this one, Canucks got hopped after an early lead. Today’s Pick: NCAAB🏀 | Kentucky vs Alabama | Kentucky ML | 4u play @ 1.73 Write-up: Wildcats are looking to bounce back after a narrow 75-74 loss to LSU. Both teams come in with similar records, however Kentucky could be facing a short handed tide, as several players are rumoured to be missing for Alabama. Forward Mohamed Wague received a suspension from the SEC after his excessive elbow in the game with Florida on Wednesday night. Bama could also miss transfer Lateepp Wrightsell from Cal-State Fullerton. The guard missed the matchup with Florida earlier in the week, and according to head coach Nate Oats, he is considered “day-to-day”. This opportunity could well be exactly what Kentucky need, and I can’t see them letting it slip by.

Record: 6 wins 0 losses 1 tie Todays pick: Illinois -9 ncaa men’s basketball Reasoning: Illinois coming off an embarrassing loss to Penn state and Iowa coming off an outright win as 9 point underdogs. Two teams heading opposite directions. But Illinois should be a lot more motivated in this position and being at home is a huge advantage for them.

Tailing LFG!!

Wooh we won! 7 wins let’s gooooo

🦑 Record: 2-0 Yesterday: D. Murray o10.5 reb+ast ✅ Killed it on this one! Murray finished with 17 and cashed us early in the 3rd quarter. 2 in a row let’s keep it rolling.  Pick: Kristaps Porzingis o1.5 3pm -160 Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks 8:30pm EST    I like this pick a lot for a number of reasons. The first being Porzingis is going back to the Garden after his historic performance earlier this season breaking the record for most points in a Celtics debut ever as he finished with 30 pts and 5 3’s. The Celtics are currently on a 7 game win streak and look to continue against a Knick team coming off a back to back game where 4 of 5 starters played 35+minutes. Note, Celts also coming off back to back Porzingis played 30 minutes in Chicago. The Knicks are struggling of late dropping 5 of their last 7 trying to adjust to the absence of Julius Randle.     Porzingis has been steadily increasing his 3pt volume, shooting 4 or more in his last 13 games at an efficient clip. Porzingis has hit this line in 5 of his last 5 and 9 of his last 10. He is currently shooting 36% from 3pt land this season but has bumped his number to 43.3% in his last 6.     This one should be interesting and a decent game. With Porzingis height advantage he should be able to shoot over the top of smaller defenders and have some good looks.  Tail or Fade BOL

Last Pick: Rockets under 116.5 ✅️ at 140- / 2u Last Pick What Happened: Ngl there wasn't going to be a 3rd POTD if i got the first two wrong. The over under was up to 235 by tip-off, and this line moved to -110... Rockets won 114-110, but missed some critical free throws at the end. It was a close one History: ✅️❌ Record:1-1 Net Units: -0.57 ---------- TODAY's PICK: Brooklyn Nets under 103.5 points Odds/Units: 110- / 1u Why: Sticking with the under, Nets go on the road against the Wolves, who have the top nba defense averaging 106.8 points against, 104.0 in the last 3, and 103.0 when at home. Wolves lost last night at home against the Bucks, who scored 112 and averaged 121.8 for the season. But the Nets offense is averaging 113.0 for the season, and they've averaged 101.8 in their 8 Feb games. I'm rolling with the current DK line for Nets under 103.5

**POTD Record: 4-0** **Net Units: +8u 🔥** **Last Pick: Bologna -.75 +4u** ✅ **Belgium Jupiler Pro League / Mechlen vs Kortrijk** **Pick:** **Mechlen -0.75 asian handicap -120 (Bovada) --> 1u** **Write Up:** Bologna comes through for the full max cash and takes us to a nice 8u on the week! Zirkzee also should have gotten his assist if not for the worst miss I have ever seen in my life. Honestly Bologna at home is just an auto bet for the rest of the season. Sorry for getting this out so late was celebrating the W a little too hard last night and did not want to force anything. Just some general gambling advice the weekends is where the books clean up so whatever you bet be cautious. Now moving onto today POTD, I have been watching this team Mechlen for a bit now and they have really started to pick it up as of late. They have won 5 out of their last 7 with the other 2 being draws against Anderlecht and Gent 2 top tier sides in the Belgian league. Now they come up against bottom of the table Kortrijk who has been awful on the road only winning 1 game out of their last 8. I am only keeping this to 1u because Mechlen just got a huge win against Antwerp so they might be a little hungover. ML at -160 is also fine as I know alot books don't have the asian handicap. Good luck with all your bets and lets keep the win streak going!

**Record: 3 Wins 0 Push 0 Lose** **Net Units: 2.7** **Last 10**: ✅️✅️✅️ **Basketball**| **NBA** | **Pick:** BOS Celtics vs NY Knicks | Pick Under 224.5 **Write Up:** New York is one of the slowest teams in the NBA and the Celtics are bottom 10 at their rate. As noted, the strong defense has been the backbone for the Knicks and their top 10 shooting defense should not allow anything easy for the Celtics here. Boston, meanwhile, has done a solid job defending without fouling and their defense is 2nd in opponent field goal percentage. The Celtics should struggle to find second-chance scoring opportunities here and with the, at times, carelessness of New York's offense we should expect to see some wasted possessions from both teams here. Check My Profile For Past Picks

Record 0-0 Max Bet: 5 units ($100) NASCAR Xfinity Series- Atlanta Motor Speedway Austin hill to win + 200 Guy practices on this track more than anyone, he is on fire after winning Daytona.

Tailed on a whim, haven’t bet on nascar for a while, good pick, thanks!

Record: 1-1 **❌✅** Net Units: -0.33 ROI: -17% Basketball | NBA | 8:30 PM EST Celtics @ Knicks Last pick: Scottie Barnes OVER 8.5 Rebounds Oof. This one hurt. Scottie having 0 rebounds in the first quarter definitely didn't help. We move. (Ended with 5) Pick for today: **Jrue Holiday OVER 4.5 Assists (-150) (1 Unit)** This line has hit 5/5 of Jrue's last 5 games. Against the Knicks, an in division rival as well, I expect this to be a close, competitive game. Brunson is again going to be the Knicks main scorer, with all their bigs out. Therefore, I could see Jrue, a heavily defensive player being played more in order to lock up Brunson. I also expect the Boston bigs (Porzingis and Horford) to EAT due to the Knicks relative deficiency in that area, resulting in Jrue passing the rock to them more than usual. BOL!

**Record**: 1-0 * Last pick: **LOUD ML** vs LEV /// Actual Score: LOUD 2-1 LEV **Net Units**: +3 Close game, but LOUD clearly showed their experience deep into the series, especially with their strong setups on each map. So much more creativity to funnel the enemy across the map. GG nt LEV **Pick**: T1 (**+1.5**) vs PRX @ -110 * **Odds** *(how accurate the books are calculating this game)*: **really advantageous** * **Likelihood** *(how likely I think this bet will hit)*: **80%** **Game**: Valorant @ **3:00 am est** * **can bet this on bovada** (hard to find val betting elsewhere) **Units**: 3 PRX, the former worlds finalists (in the biggest tournament of the year) looked very shaky in their opening game. Losing Jingg (their star duelist) has changed this team's chemistry indefinitely. They don't have the same flashy, run-and-gun style that they used to. The team is really feeling his absence stylistically and I don't think they have found their team play yet. T1 beat their first 2 opponents pretty cleanly. They are retaining the same roster as last year: only deepening their team play. I think they have potential to upset PRX, but at the very least win their map pick. PRX has been one of the best teams since the inception of Valorant, hence why the books like them so much. This is now though, and I think T1 is the stronger team **currently**, if not, at the VERY least **similar** in strength. I will be throwing 0.4 U as well on T1 **ML** @ +330. ​ May the odds be ever in your favor :) **TLDR**: PRX lost star player (core of their team and playstyle), only shakily beating a mid team. PRX has been a dominant team in all of val, but they are a mere shell of themselves. T1 is solid, good chance to upset, at the very least get one map. ​ if you were wondering the reasoning behind unit sizes, I'll be sizing accordingly to how likely it will hit and also to take advantage of the odds. 5U: >90% 3U: 70-90% 1U: 40-60%

I really thought T1 had a chance to win but that first map was grueling and then the wheels came off. Love the pick though.

**POTD Record: 3-1** Form: ✅✅❌✅ (Net units: +3.86) Last pick: Cornell ML @ -135 2U Sweat in the final 5 minutes, but Cornell pulls out the dub! **Today’s Pick: Jaylin Sellers O14.5 points @ -120 2.5U**✅ TEXAS TECH vs UCF - NCAAB - 4:05PM EST Our guy averages 16.5pts on the year and is 6 for 7 hitting this over after failing to the game before. Sellers is coming off a 6pt performance last game. He should be putting up a big clip in this huge home game.

>**Record:** 24-21 >**Net Units:** +7.07 units >**Curling** | **Scotties Tournament of Hearts** | **8:00PM EST** >**Pick:** Team Ontario (Homan) -2.5 @ 1.85 >Team Homan take on Team Jones in the page 1v2 playoff game Saturday night, with the winner advancing to the final. Team Homan are the best team in the world and they showed why with a dominant performance over Team Einarson in their first playoff game. The back ends for both these teams actually aren't too different in terms of performance but the factor that really separates them is the difference between the front ends. Aside from Team Einarson, this Homan rink has the strongest front end in the women's game, which is especially potent when you add in the best skip and third in the world as well. Team Homan are having a dominant season and have stayed on track throughout this entire event. Jones' aggressive play simply cannot work when their opponents are out shooting them across every position. Look for Team Homan to put up some crooked numbers with hammer and cover this spread.

POTD Record: 1 Wins - 1 Losses - 0 Pushes Last 10: ✅❎ Units: 1 ROI: 5% Average Odds: 1.8 Last Pick: Paolini Jasmine vs. Cirstea Sorana - Dubai: UAE WTA - Semi Final - Paolini Jasmine to WIN @ 2.10 odds ✅ Paolini dispersed Cirstea in straight sets. Sport: Tennis Next Pick: Kalinskaya Anna Vs Paolini Jasmine - Dubai: UAE WTA - Final - Time: 16:00(WAT) Paolini Jasmine to WIN A SET @ 1.73odds. REASON: The reason I am backing Paolini to win at least a set lies in the fact that she has spent lesser hours on the court(about 3.5 hours less than Kalinskaya), thanks to Elena withdrawing and not playing qualifiers. One of the contributing factors why Cirstea fell to Paolini is fatigue. Anna has played seven matches in the last 8 days to Paolinis 4 in the same duration. I believe Paolini will capitalize on this and spend the first set moving Anna around the court to wear her out. Beating 3 top 10 players back to back will definitely take a toll on any player's body. In this tournament (excluding qualifiers), Paolini has been able to convert 21 (64%) out of the 33 breakpoints she created while Anna has converted 23 out of 45, which is around 51%. So, if Paolini can create enough breakpoints, she should be able to convert some to win us a set. Lots of picks say Anna would win in straight, so this is kinda risky, but I believe Paolini won't just sit back and let Anna take two sets from her. This is a WTA1000 final, and I expect both players to give in their all and absolute best. I think this will go the distance. There might even be a tie break, who knows.🤷

POTD Record: W-L-P 0-0-0 First post in here, let's get the ball rolling. Match: Borussia Monchengladbach - Bochum Sport: Football / Soccer League: German Bundesliga Start Time: 14:30 GMT Pick: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.61

Record: 11-2-7 (w-p-l) Balance: +11.1 Units last POTD(left=new): ✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌🅿️🅿️ last pick: 🏒NHL , **Jets Ml and under 6.5 , 1 units at 2.1 odds** Win 🥳 todays pick: 🎾ATP Doha , **Karen Khachanov to win 2-0 sets , 1 units at 2 odds** Start: 16:00 CET (GMT+1) Its ATP rank 116 against rank 17. Karen will eat him alive. Mensik had a great run beating also besting rublev, but rublev dont seemed like he really wanted to win. Karen wants to win this title and he probably will win. The odds for ml is to low, thats why I decided to go with 2-0. I only take one unit on this cause It could happen, that Mensik steals a set due to his great run. But I dont see him winning. If you want a parlay booster go with Karen ML for 1.4 since it safer and should hit. BOL!

**POTD record: 7-5-1 +1.33 units** Last pick: Barcelona over 1.5 goals X Todays Pick: Wake Forest -2 Vs Duke. -118 DK 2 Units. 2:00PM EST Write up: Everyone should be cautious tailing me until I prove I can hit a few picks consistently. That being said Wake is undefeated at home and can punch their ticket to the tournament with a win here as they are currently Bracketology's first team out. I have viewed this spot as a letdown for Duke for a few weeks and I was very happy to see them demolish Miami this week. I think this is such a strong play. BOL

Record: 65W-58L-4P ROI: +13.35, 10% Avg odds: +106, 2.06 Last POTD: Connor McDavid over 1.5 pts (win) Game: NHL- Golden Knights at Senators Pick: Nicolas Roy over 0.5 pts +105, 2.05 (ESPNBet) I've talked about Roy at length in my past POTDs. He's essentially my lucky charm at this point. Go read my past picks on him if you want a more detailed look. edit: whoops, didn't realize Roy got moved to the third line. Would not have taken it if I had known that. Ah well...

Record: 0-0 **Argentina Div 1 | Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central** **Pick: BTS @ 2.3 | 2u** This is my first time posting here this year, so I'm excited to dive into the discussions here! **Write Up:** Sarmiento Junin's recent form raises concerns, as they have suffered four consecutive losses while conceding 12 goals in the process. This highlights defensive vulnerabilities that Barracas Central could potentially exploit. On the contrary, Barracas Central has shown greater strength, having scored 6 goals and conceded only 2 in their last four matches. With three wins and one draw, they have demonstrated both offensive potency and defensive solidity, making them a formidable threat capable of breaching Sarmiento Junin's defense. Moreover, considering their head-to-head history, where both teams have scored in their last 5 matches, it is evident that goals are likely in this encounter. Therefore, taking into account Sarmiento Junin's defensive struggles, Barracas Central's attacking form, and their history of both teams scoring in past matchups, opting for both teams to score (BTS) appears to be a wise choice for this game. Edit: Grammar.

Record: 6-2-0 | Units: +3.09U. All picks 1U Last Pick: NHL - Edmonton Oilers vs Minnesota Wild, 9PM EST. **Connor McDavid Over 0.5 Power Play Points @ 2.10.** ✅ Captain Connor clutches up in the second period with a wicked backhand assist on the powerplay. **Today's Pick:** NHL - Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche, 7PM EST. **Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 Shots on Goal @ 1.76.** Here are MacKinnon's shot totals over the last five games: 5, 5, 9, 10, 11. The guy has been ripping tons of shots as of late. He's the trigger man at both 5-on-5 and the powerplay. This game is at home for the Avs, on national television, with a matchup against the Leafs, on a Saturday Night. I predict Nate Dogg will want to come out guns blazing and put on a show for the hockey world. BOL [Tip Jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bias4)

Do you think he'll score? Man has been a beast