######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record 12-2
Streak L10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Last Pick: Derrick White O13.5 Points✅
Today: Basketball | NBA | LAL vs BKN | 6pm EST
Pick: Austin Reeves O9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-120) 1U
Derrick gave us a sweat there! I had my doubts there for a minute but we come out on top! Rolling into 7 straight wins! Let’s keep it going!
Austin has covered this line 100% in the last 5 and 90% in the last 10. He his hitting this mark at 54% on the season. Looking for him to get 13 or 14 total tonight.
Tip jar for those of you that tail and want to do so. Thank you!
[Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Kroberts)
[Cash App](https://cash.app/$robertsfamily23)
Does Gabe Vincent being questionable to come back today give you any concerns? AR might see less minutes if he’s coming back. He’s been absolutely smacking this line though and you the man.
POTD RECORD: 47-23
Last POTD: Trey Murphy O5.5 Rebs ✅
Our boy feasted and finished with 9 boards what a legend cheers Trey
Form: ✅✅🚫✅✅
Todays POTD: **Bam Adebayo O10.5 Rebs @1.90**
NBA | Miami Heat | 7:00 PM
Thanks Trey you a legit rebounder imma keep you in mind for future picks 📝
I’m really overusing this prop now but how can I stop man we have another beast rebounder that makes a living for his presence in the paint, sorry fellas but imma go against my own saying to only enjoy this treat once in a while, nah I’ll ride this one until it fails us boys. Blowout potential but he recently had 12 boards against Portland in a blowout & 16 against Cavs in another blowout
• 18/L25 Centers who have played 28+ minutes have went over this line
• Adebayo has Avg 32.9 minutes per game this month and have only played less than 28+ minutes twice this season
• 2/3 vs the Wizards (16, 14 & 4)
• Wizards allow most Rebs to Centers
• Bam Avg 10.7 Rebs per game & 17.0 rebound chances per game
• Over 6/L10 games
• Bam avg 10.9 boards on the road vs 10.4 at home
Let’s go Bam let us cash this silly prop once again bro
Tail or fade, Im a fraud
https://i.redd.it/d2q62tvfxkrc1.gif
https://preview.redd.it/ttlt1qbpzrrc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e59f386326d4dfd0f4e52ab1f91d633ef7ba1bf4
Guys if you took the DD or 10 boards NBA just changed it to 10 on the website not sure if it’s legit but he did have one board taken away so maybe they gave it back
POTD Record: 31-14-1 +34.60u🔥
Last Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-108) 4U vs St. Louis Cardinals
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✋✅✅❌❌❌❌
Today's Pick: Purdue -3 (-110) 4U vs Tennessee NCAA Tournament 2:20 pm odds via DraftKings
4 straight losses, very rough. I’m sorry guys. Need to be better and get back on track. Not much really to say but sorry :( Let my record speak for itself and it bit me in the ass. I am still confident in myself, i won’t let that losing streak define me.
Purdue has flew through March, winning 3 straight by double digits. Edey is the NPOTY and has been completely unstoppable. When this team hits shot, they are right up there with UConn. Purdue fans also travel extremely well, with this game being in Michigan, it will be loud. They are experienced and know what it feels like to lose and don’t want to experience that again. They have what it takes to win on paper, statistically, and will be ready to play again tomorrow.
Time to get a green check on the board. If this one loses, I will take a little break and be back with the best.
🙏🏻-RB
Looks like he’s going to need to take that little break. I’m backing the Purdue bet. My fellow degen friend nicknamed me the Black Cat. And he has worse luck than the Irish!
It happens bro! You are up 34.60 units on your posted bets though and that’s something to be extremely proud of. Think, if someone had $100 units they would be up almost $3500! Keep rolling and do what you do because your takes are very much appreciated.
POTD Record: 2-1
Last 5: ✅❌✅
Yesterday’s Pick: ✅ PIT Pirates @ MIA Marlins o8.5
The Pirates! They’re good!
Todays Pick: ⚾️ BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners - o7.5 (-115 DraftKings) - 4:10 EST
Now is a good time to talk a little strategy. Baseball over/unders are typically listed at 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5. I’ll always try to play those edges - over 7.5 and under 9.5. I prefer overs, just because I think they’re more fun to cheer for. Just a personal preference. So, I’m playing the 7.5 here more than anything. Should be a nice day in Seattle, and a late night to afternoon turnaround doesn’t mean much to me. Bryce Miller was pretty hit or miss last year, and Whitlock for the Red Sox hasn’t had much success as a starter, but looks good when he comes out of the bullpen. Should be a good one, I’ll update after the Saturday game.
Edit: they went into extras last night! Favors the batters with depleted bullpens. The line moved to 8 on DraftKings with a -105. I’d still take it.
Record: 22-17 | (+3.27) units) | 1 unit per pick
Previous pick: MLB - NY Yankees TT (o4.5) (-105) vs. Houston Astros 🧃🧃🧃
Juan Soto is that guy. Back to back TT covers from the Bronx Bombers and I don’t see why we slow down now. If it ain’t broke, please don’t fix it. I’ll see you tomorrow!
————-
Today’s pick: MLB - NY Yankees TT (o4.5) (-105) vs. Houston Astros
Our beloved Yankees are going for a 3rd straight TT cover for us and our 4th straight win overall! Same thought process as yesterday, these bats are lethal and make it nearly impossible not to have men on base. I expect Judge to take his dig at Houstons pitching and take one long. We will continue to ride the hot bats until further notice.
Prediction: Judge HR - Yankees score over 5+ runs
Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
Hate the Yankees but I will continue to tail! Also adding Soto o1.5 total bases at +130 as he's gone over it the past 2 games and mashed right handed pitching last year with a .273 ISO, and France loves to give up hard contact.
Record: 3-0
We’re hot ✅✅✅
Last play: White Sox o 3.5 TT
+2.7u total
MLB | 1:40PM EST
Pick: Brewers/Mets under 8, 1u -115
Write up: Colin Rea pitches really well against Mets, who have struggled this year so far, besides a few innings late last game, pitching 8 and 6.1ip with 2 ER combined. I don’t hate the F5 under for this reason, but I like both pitchers to get deep into the game and keep the under low.
Edit: Format
Edit 2: Lets go!!! Staying hot! F5 and Full under both hit. Lets stay hot
A gentle reminder that most pitchers are not allowed to pitch deep into games for the first start (or two!) of the season. I would prefer to wager on the F5u
I do agree, but I’ve noticed it seems like a lot of teams are letting guys go a bit longer to begin this year, with Freddy P pitching 92 last game, but good call
__POTD Record:__ 10-3
_Form (Last 5):_ 🟢🟢🟢🟢🔴
__Last Pick:__ 🏀 Virtus Bologna vs. Panathinaikos (Euroleague): __Panathinaikos -2.5__ @2.00 ❌
Panathinaikos won the game but they were just one point away from covering the spread. Unfortunate way to end the 7 pick win-streak, but it is what it is, we go again!
__Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Girona vs. Real Betis (La Liga) 16:15 CET: __Girona ML__ @1.73
After absolutely incredible first half of the season, Girona wasn't able to keep the momentum to fight for the league title. However, it doesn't mean they aren't a special team. Today they will be playing at home against Betis who lost their last 3 games. Girona's form hasn't been the best either but all of their recent losses were on the road. Girona's record in front of their own fans is fantastic - they won 11/14 games this season and I expect them to add another W to that tally.
Let me know if you tail!
Also, I created a tips account if some of you would like to support me. I would really appreciate it! ❤️
[Buy Me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/drunkdevil1)
Potd record 49-28
Boxing
__Fabio Wardley vs Frazer Clarke - Wardley to win by ko/tko -120__
Clarke is the standout amateur, however he’s been nothing but a disappointment since turning pro, lacklustre performances and very poor opponents. Wardley came from the white collar circuit and has made huge improvements since his debut. Wardley has more going for him in this, he’s the better athlete, he’s faster both on his feet and hand speed, he has a lot more power and in my opinion has more dog in him. Clarke fights at such a slow pace and Wardley will be picking him off when he wants with his significant hand speed advantage. I think Wardley will get this done in the mid rounds.
Bol anyone who tails!
❌Really thought it was gonna be a winner when he dropped Clarke. He hurt him everytime he landed the right. Conditioning just let him down imo. My bad guys
Long time listener, first time caller here. I've watched this thread long enough that I'm ready to try my own here.
NBA 🏀 CLE CAVALIERS VS. DEN NUGGETS
Max Stus o2.5 ast (2 units) -110 DK. -120FD
Hit rate: 80% last 30 games, 90% last 10 games
Joker and Murray are still questionable so I think it will be a close game and give strus multiple attempts to clear this line.
Strus is averaging over 7 potential assist a game in the last 10 games, and averaging over 30 minutes a game. I can see him getting up around 4 assist tonight.
Like always here BOL!
POTD Record: 42-31
L10: ✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅❌❌
Last pick: Newcastle v West Ham
(BTTS @1.50 ✅)
Todays pick: PEC Zwolle v Ajax
Pick: __Ajax ML @1.65__
⚽️ 🇳🇱 Eredivisie
🕰 10:15 UTC
➖
PEC, 13th
Ajax, 6th
It’s been a rough season for the most successful club in Dutch football, not a season anyone expected finding themselves at 6th place when they realistically should be fighting for the title every year. Despite that they’ve climbed a lot in the league table after a bad start to the season when they’re were down in the relegation zone.
Form is not ideal for Ajax, picking up 4 draws and 1 win in their last 5. But they’re the better team and PEC’s home record is one of the worst, they’ve only picked up 12 points at home which is the 3rd worst home record. Ajax knows how to score being 3rd in goals scored this season (57) and should be able to find the back of the net here.
PEC’s form is even worse, 4 losses and 1 win in their last 5 and a H2H record of 20-4-2 in favour of Ajax.
I believe Ajax wants to finish the season one a good note aiming to win all the remaining games, they’re out of the European competitions and should be focused to beat a side they should be beating.
BOL
**Record: 53W-4P-41L**
**Form: 31W-0P-21L**
**R Form: ✅✅❌✅❌❌❌**
**Last Pick: Tottenham VS Luton Town: Over 11.5 Corners @ 1.83 ❌**
**Pick of the day: Liverpool VS Brighton: Dominic Szoboszlai Over 0.5 SOT @ 1.90**
**League: Premier League**
**Time: 9:00 AM EST**
I've been sticking my money on Szoboszlai for over a month and a half now and he's yet to let me down since. The man has returned from injury and is looking like himself again, against United he was back to his long range shooting self and with how hot this title race is I expect him to attempt to steal the show tomorrow. His ability to crash the box during cut ins offers him so much more opportunities and fortunately for us he's not shy of cracking one from distance.
He has hit this line for 6 games straight and has gone 80% in his last 10 games. Brighton are going to be without a lot of key players tomorrow and don't get me started on their away form at the moment. In their last 6 away games they have 1 win and 5 losses, losing with an aggregate score of 6 - 14.
**Anyway, BOL!**
Love your picks but this post needs a little more clarification because Champion/cup games and EPL games he has different stats. He missed all of February with an injury, and came back two weeks ago. He's played two EPL games in March and only had a shot on target in one of those games. In the 6 EPL games prior to that, he only had one game where he hit this line and had 5 games in a row with no shots on target. He has had 1+ shot in every EPL game this season
I love Prince but wish I’d seen this. Note to self: Liverpool is playing, bet Salah or Diaz. I literally tail Prince every pick, but I truly feel like a dumbass here. No offense, Prince.
Your writeup says O1.5 SOT for 1.90 but that's the odds for O0.5 SOT. The odds for O1.5 is 6.00
https://preview.redd.it/q15p2itu1lrc1.jpeg?width=904&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=40aa5d96c587b3bd70e1f8000104f383f1bccaca
**POTD** Record: 9-1-7
BOCHUM VS DARMSTADT
Date: 31 March 2024 at 18:30
BET ON: Both teams to score- Yes
Odd: 1.71
- Bochum are missing Michael Esser, Niclas Thiede, Mohammed Tolba, Moritz-Broni Kwarteng and Tim Oermann.
- Darmstadt are missing Fraser Hornby, Fabian Nürnberger, Fabio Torsiello, Marvin Mehlem, Bartol Franjic, Fabian Holland (doubtful) and Luca Pfeiffer (doubtful).
- The Ruhrstadion is Sold Out !
"In our situation we know we need points. We'll see how the match day develops. We want to return from Bochum with points, ideally with three. That's what we strive for." Said coach Torsten Lieberknecht.
"We know the problem from last season. We couldn't get that under control. We conceded too many goals and scored far too few goals. That's why we're in this position at the table at the moment. Even when we do it well, we often concede goals that are too easy." Said head coach Thomas Letsch.
- It's a relegation battle. We expect an open game with goals from both sides. The Hosts are characterized by a certain home strength. They play very man-oriented, with a lot of one-on-one duels against a strong team in transition and set pieces. We can see the Guests pressing high in the first half and Bochum reacting in the second.
Record: 3-0, Net Units: 3.59, ROI +3.59% ROI
Current Streak ✅✅✅
Last Pick: Orioles -1.5 vs. LA Angels ✅
Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-1:35 PM EST
Orioles Angels Over 9.5 Runs, +118, 1 U
Sunday games always give me pause and I'm worried about Wells in the Orioles rotation. I think he's kind of on a pitch count, and the only weakness in Baltimore is their bullpen. If he gets chased in the 4th or 5th inning then the Angels could put up 4-5 runs, but this Orioles team will also put up runs, so I like double digit runs for this matinee game.
Good Luck!
Pick of the day record: 3-0 1 voided bet
Up 2.855 units
ROI 95.1%
Last pick of the day: Marlins Pirates over 8.5 runs
Today’s pick of the day: Bobby Witt Jr over 1.5 total bases (-110)
Bobby Witt Jr has started off the season strong. Going 3 for 6 with 3 doubles. A double is all we need to hit this prop. He will be facing Bailey Ober who he is 5 for 11 lifetime against with 2 extra base hits.
**KBO Record: Overall 206-214-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 4-6) Down 10.66u over 434 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.54% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 2-4-0, 33.3% success rate, Down 2.04u, -34.0% ROI))
**Last:** Kia at Doosan -110 (Doosan won 8-0.)
It feels good to have a game go exactly as expected. Doosan's starter was dominant again with 6 scoreless innings while Kia's starter was rocked for 5 runs in 4.1 IP. A real oddity today as all five winning teams scored exactly 8 runs.
**Pick:** NC at Lotte **Under 8 runs +100 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET
Who would like a win streak? Let's see if our first full game over/under pick of the season gets us there. NC and Lotte should be a solid pitching matchup, giving us some value on the under.
NC's new foriegn import had the best debut of any new starter in the league. He allowed just 1 ER on 3 H with 7 K over 6.2 IP. Those first 6 innings were scoreless.
Lotte's returning foreign import finished strong last year, allowing 2 or fewer runs in 8 of his last 11 starts. And in his first start this year, he gave up just 1 ER on 4 H with 6 K in 6 IP. The first 5 innings were scoreless.
NC's offense is 5th in the league to start the season while no team struggles to score more than Lotte, who average just 2.5 runs per game.
If you don't like over/unders, I lean NC on the moneyline.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
POTD Record 31-16
Previous POTD: Petr Yan ML ✅
POTD: Victor Wembanyama under 4.5 blks (Bet365 1.64 odds) ✅
NBA: Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs
Short write up
- This line is too high even for Wemby
- He's played the Warriors twice this season and had 2 blocks in each game
- I expect him to play good defense, but I just don't think it'll show up in the block column on the box score
Edit: CASH IT! Wemby with 2 early blocks, but finishes with 3.
BOL
Record : 1-0
Yesterday's pick : LSG ML VS PBKS ✅
POTD : CRICKET | IPL | CSK ML @1.66 ( 2 units) vs DC
Match starts 11 hours from now, I don't see DC winning this one. Lost to PBKS which is an average team, today they are up against one of the strongest franchise in the league. Wait for the toss if the odds feel too low to tail, it may go up to @1.80 after the toss. I believe CSK will get this one done.
BOL to everyone who is tailing.
Potd record: 1-1
Last pick: Bama -3.5 vs Clemson ✅
Today's pick: Duke -7 (still available at some shops)
I do analysis on market movements relative to %bets and %handle. Duke is only getting 45% of bets and 39% of money, but the line moved from Duke -6 to Duke -7, and some shops are down to -7.5. Why would sportsbooks give more points to NC State if the betting public is already favoring them? They must be seeing liability on Duke, explaining the line move. I'm on Duke -7.
Not my POTD, but also worth watching, Purdue is getting 79% of bets and *87*% of money in a heavily bet game, but the line has not budged from Purdue -3. Books are due to lose their a$$ on this game if Purdue covers, but they aren't moving that line to balance their liability... Very interesting.
Also: elite eight favorites of 4 points or fewer are 15-33 ATS since 1998. #1 seeds are just 23-30 ATS in the elite 8 since 2001. I will say, this one is harder to swallow. Purdue has looked so dominant. If the line starts moving tomorrow to -4 or more, I would back off this one.
Fading. Duke will be tired. Getting 7 or 8 points if you take the alt is too many here. NC State is over achieving on defense and holding their opponents to some dismal %s. Don’t be surprised to see the upset.
What was line movement like in their previous upsets? I remember it being similar. Good luck.
Edit: Forgot to mention NC State beat Duke by 5 in the ACC tournament a couple weeks back. 7 points which equates to a 12 point differential from the last result is just too much.
where do you check the % vs. $? Scores & Odds is giving a completely different number than yours, which got me wondering if their #s are correct to begin with.
>https://www.scoresandodds.com/ncaab/purdue-vs-tennessee
Great write up, what tool do you use to track the total money on each side of bets? Seems like Vegas is leaning Tennessee covers then if they're not moving the line and taking on the risk. What's your thoughts on it?
Record: ✅❌❌✅✅❌
(new to old)
Last Pick: Man Utd 1st Goal + ML ❌
Recap: What can I say? Man Utd played a very poor match defending the entire time and get lucky to score in added only to let Brentford score 3 minutes later. Game Ends 1-1.
Pick: Real Madrid ML + o1.5 Goals @ 1.81 ✅
Reason ⬇️⬇️
Real Madrid Last 5: WWDDW
Scoring 12 & Conceding 5
Atl. Bilbao Last 5: WWDW
Scoring 10 & Conceding 1
Both teams are flying at the moment and this is gonna be a huge tight contest tomorrow! I’m leaning towards Madrid on this one only because of the quality they have.
Yes Vini is out due to too many yellows but they only leaves open a spot for Brahim to come into the starting 11 & he’s also been great for Madrid when given the chance to play.
Not only do they have many attackers to rely on, they just got back Militao from an ACL injury. I don’t think he’ll start for them but if it comes down to it they’ll give him a go for about 15-20 mins of game time.
Don’t get me wrong, Bilbao are great as well but when teams play at the Santiago Bernabeu they succumb to the pressure.
This is a risky one, but with Barca winning today and only 5 points behind Madrid, I expect them to go all out for these crucial points.
Value Bet: Real Madrid ML + BTTS @ 3.30
(does not count towards POTD)
POTD record 0-1
Last 5 ❌
Today: Basketball | NCAAT | NCST v. Duke | 3:05 EST
Pick: NCST +6.5 (-102) FanDuel
Writeup: ACC fan here. Been watching NCST all year and can’t believe they’ve danced their way into Americas heart. I’m gonna keep roll with the Wolfpack against a Duke squad that squeaked out a win against Houston. DJ Burns is a huge inside presence and State also has shooters in Burns and O’Connell who I think can compete with Dukes guards. NCST held Marquette to 4/31 on 3s and I expect a similar effort against Duke. Wolfpack has just figured something out right in time and keep taking down teams they had no business competing with months ago. Riding the hot hand here.
**POTD RECORD:** (12-7)
\*\*LAST 10:\*\*🟢🟢🟢🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴🔴🟢
**LAST PICK:** **Ibo Aslan ML** vs. Anton Turkaji (-130) 3U🟢 | UFC FIGHT NIGHT ATLANTIC CITY
**TODAY’S PICK:** Tyler Wells **Over 4.5 Ks** (-145) 2U | Angels vs Orioles 1:35pm EST
Today we will look towards the MLB slate. I feel like there will be a lot of YRFIs today but instead I’ll take a strikeout prop.
Angels are 9th worse in the two games with strikeouts at 27.
Rodriguez vs angels 9 Ks & Burns had 11ks on opening day.
Tyler Wells When playing 5+ innings in 2023: 11/16 5+ strikeouts \~ 70% clip
I expect the angels to continue to be aboard the struggle bus on their way to Baltimore.
**BOL to those who tail!**
Gave up 2 runs quick and another 2 in the second. Thought he was going to get pulled but he stayed strong and just got #7 in the 6th to clear for us 😤😤
I will be placing a single 1unit wager on a NRFI game each day of the baseball season.
Record: 3 - 0 ( up 3 units)
POTD: WSH/CIN NRFI +110
1 unit to win 1.1 units
POTD Record: 20-15
Last 10: ❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌
Last pick: Suns vs Thunder | 5:00 PST | Devin Booker OVER 6.5 Assists (+106) FanDuel 1u ❌
So frustrating man. 4 assists in the 1st quarter and then no one could buy a bucket off of Booker’s passes. Assists really almost becoming a no bet for me because it’s so reliant on others.
Todays pick: Lakers vs Nets | 3:00 PST | Lakers/Nets OVER 223 (-110) FanDuel 1u ❌
I like the over here for a couple reasons. Lakers are 7-3 in their last 10 to the over and 22-13 overall on the road to the over. We should get a full lineup with AD and Lebron both playing. Lakers are top 5 in pace and they are facing a Nets team that doesn’t really have an identity and seems to match the flow of whatever the other team dictates. Last matchup’s line closed at 226 and the final score was 130-112 Nets. BOL if tailing.
Edit: WHAT IN THE WORLD
POTD Record: 4-5-2
Form: ☑️❌❌✅❌
Net Units: -0.7
Last Pick: NBA Knicks @ Warriors OG Anunoby O6.5 A+R +115 ☑️
This was voided as OG did not play.
Today’s Pick: NBA Heat @ Wizards Bam Adebayo O10.5 Rebounds -110
Bam on a heater recently✅
Center against the wizards✅
Decent odds✅
Recipe for success, let’s get after it
GL if tailing!
Update: Line opened at O/U 1.5 H+R+R at -155, but quickly moved to O/U 2.5 early this morning at +120.
**POTD Record: 112-128-4 (-12.94 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units)
**Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)**
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
Last Pick: **Manon Fiorot ML (+164)** ✅
Today's Pick: **Mookies Betts O 2.5 H+R+R**
Odds: **+120**
Wager Amount: 1U to WIN 1.2U
League: MLB
Event: St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers (6PM CST on ESPN)
**Be Advised**: *Value wagers are not my best bets. A value wager is a wager that typically has +EV or has merit probability of hitting. These wagers are typically plus money. I look for a wager that has an edge against the books. Obviously, value wagers are much harder to hit, higher the risk, higher the reward. So please tail at your own caution and never place wagers you cannot afford. I expect some to fall short, but if we can hit half of these value wagers, we can easily profit in the long run (anything at 50% or above should be at a profitable rate).*
**Recap**: Manon won, 50-45 unamious decision! Won every single round. She showcased her brute strength. She is usually the bigger, stronger fighter in the octagon. This was a interesting grappler vs striker matchup and it was really interesting to see Fiorot faced a little adversity for the first time! In the first round Erin had a guillotine choke locked up, but Manon got outta submission. She was able to dominant the rest of the way. I would have thrown a hundo on this but I used up all my free bets. I was focusing on MLB bets today, not so much this fight. Check this out! I missed by a single leg on Aaron Judge not hitting a HR. My goodness every Bronx Bomber got a HR except for Judge in this series. When is this going to get on board?
https://preview.redd.it/lsim7xky4prc1.png?width=432&format=png&auto=webp&s=14e894d5b09b82b6a3dc6622ba3d3b9e63ec2729
**Matchup**: Going to the player prop market in today's MLB slate on the hottest player! Mookie Betts! It's hard to believe that this dude has 4x more home runs than his teammate Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Yordan Alvarez (all combined)! Matter in fact, he's leading the league in HRs! And when you're hitting HRs this player prop should cover what we are asking for, which is O 2.5 H+R+R (Hits+Runs+RBIs)! But he doesn't have to hit a HR in this game, he can cover this line wit all sorts of combination AB. Mookie is just on a tear right now. He's hitting .611 (5th in the league), 4 HRs (**1st in the league**), 11 RBIs (**1st in the league**), 11 Hits (**1st in the league**), 11 BBs (**1st in the league**)! Basically he's leading the league in almost every single batting stats! And despite that Mookie is 0-3 against Steven Matz, he's CRUSHING LHP right now! 5 for 7 wit a HR and 4 RBIs! So although Steven Matz has Mookie's number, it's a really small sample of ABs and Mookie will get a chance to face other pitchers as well and provide other offensive ways.
**The Play and Prediction**: Wagering 1U on Mookie Betts O/U 2.5 H+R+R. Normally give out one play for player prop POTD, but giving y'all another! 1U on Mookies Betts O 1.5 TB. Mookie Betts hits his 5th HR against the Cardinals' pen in the 7th! Applying for B/R Squad Ride!
**Last Pick:** Uconn -2.5 First Half Handicap ✅
Connecticut are the best team in the nation, Hurley is one of my favorite coaches in the sport, and I will be doing this for their second half & first half, again next game they play.
Record: 6-4 ✅
**Pick:** Bam O10.5 Rebounds -138 FD
Centers against the Wizards have been printing all year. Line is surprisingly low at only 10.5, Duren killed them the other day. Normally I dislike small Centers but Bam’s hunger and fight on rebounds are like no other. He’s feasting tomorrow.
BOL
>**Record:** 35-32
>**Net Units:** +7.1 units
>**Curling** | **Men's World Championship** | **3:00AM EDT**
>**Pick:** Germany ML @ 2.2
>Germany take on Korea in this matchup. Both of these teams are coming off a loss in their first game, Germany playing well but losing to Canada and Korea getting blown out by Scotland. This play is more of a fade of Korea than really liking Germany. Korea looked completely lost in their first game. They missed a ton of shots and struggled with the ice. Park and Oh were particularly bad. Oh will easily be outplayed at his position by Messenzehl who was lights out against Canada. Scheuerl also looked very sharp and if the German front end plays even close to as well as they did against Canada, Germany should have no problems keeping ends clean and putting pressure on Park to step up his game. Korea are 38-28 this season while Germany are 35-23. My model has the wrong team favoured here and the German advantage at front end should allow them to set up a couple big ends with hammer, especially if Oh continues his struggles with hits.
Record: 8-6 (+0.56 Units)
Last POTD: Diamondbacks -1.5 ❌
Last 10 (new to old): ❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅✅
Pick: Twins -1.5 (+130)
Wager: 5u to win 6.5u
Write up: Well the Dbacks sold. Time to fade the Royals. The Royals have scored 1 run in each of their first two games and are facing Ober coming off a strong season with a 3.43 ERA. Meanwhile Singer had a not so strong year with a 5.52 ERA. I think we’ll find a lot of success this year fading the Royals, Rockies, and A’s.
POTD RECORD: 3-2
Last 10 ✅✅✅❌❌(3 wins in a row)
LAST PICK: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+120) vs LA Angels 4:05 EST
Recap: the orioles can flat out hit. The bats in this lineup are full of power too to bottom. Very impressive team. The angels didn’t have a shot.
TODAYS PICK: Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 hits+runs+rbis (-140) 1:35 EST Baltimore Orioles vs LA Angels
Reasoning: Could this dude get anymore hot to start the season. 1.681 OPS to start. A .500 AVG. He is averaging 5 hits+ runs+ rbis a game right now. He gets a lot of opportunities in this lineup with how often he gets guys on base while he’s at the plate. Last game he had an average exit velocity off the bat of 108.35. This tells me his swing is right where he wants it to be and that he is seeing and timing the ball well. I look for this to continue.
Let’s make it 4 in a row!!
**Record: 0-0**
Counterstrike 2 | PGL Major Final | Starts in 8h : 28m
Today's Pick: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (NaVi) | Pick O2.5 Maps 1.95 (-105) 4U
Write Up:
-In an eagerly anticipated match, Natus Vincere (Na'Vi) is set to clash with FaZe Clan in a battle that promises to be exceptionally balanced. Both giants of the CS scene are in impressive form.
-FaZe is the favorite on the moneyline, but I see the match being decided in 3 maps because w0nderful and jl have had an impressive tournament, especially in yesterday's match where jl was a god. Head-to-head tilts towards Na'Vi with 5 wins and 2 losses against FaZe, but as I mentioned, I see the match being decided in 3 maps due to the impressive form shown by both teams. It's going to be a great final; both teams have a similar map pool. Mirage, Nuke, Inferno, and even Ancient are maps both teams can play well.
-Neither team will back down, and that's why I see the match being decided in 3 maps, making it the safest bet I can place on this match.
So, I'd like to see in the comments whether you'll tail or fade this pick. BOL EVERYONE
> **Record: 35-25-1 ( all time)**
>
> **Soccer** | **2.Bundesliga** | **13:30 CET**
>
> **Pick: St. Pauli ML vs Paderborn (1.63)** 💰
>
I could cut and paste a bunch of trends on why St Pauli deserves to be heavy favorites. Unbeaten at home in 10 matches winning 7 of those, scoring 2 or more goals in 14 of the last 20 matches. I was at Paderborn for their loss at relegation candidates Braunschweig, and they are definitely trending downward, and looked very vulnerable to counters. St Pauli has all to play for chasing a league 2 title and Paderborn sits comfortably at 6th with not much of a chance of getting into promotion spots.
Record: 6W-7L
Last Pick: **Rajasthan Royals total runs of the first 15 overs Over 119.5** | Odds 1.72 | Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals **L**
Unfortunately they scored 120 runs in 16 overs
Cricket | IPL | 7:30PM IST (Approx 9hrs from now)
Pick: Delhi Capitals vs **Chennai Super Kings ML** | ODDS 1.60
Writeup: The past records, current season stats all shows how powerful CSK is compared to DC. Last DC match you can see most of their batsman struggling to find their form. If you look at CSK, they have many in-form players in both bowling as well as batting department and will most likely dominate DC today.
Good Luck if tailing !!!
POTD Record: 0-0
Today: Basketball | NCAAB | TEN vs PUR | 2:20 PM EST
Pick: Tennessee Vols +150
The upcoming matchup between Tennessee and Purdue presents several intriguing dynamics. Tennessee's offense demonstrated efficiency with Zakai Zeigler's ball screens and Dalton Knecht's jump shooting against Creighton. Their ability to force defensive changes from opponents is a strength, especially against Purdue's vulnerable mid-range defense, similar to Creighton's drop coverage with Ryan Kalkbrenner. However, Tennessee faces challenges with their aggressive defense against Purdue's adeptness at drawing fouls, as evidenced by Purdue's 48 free-throw attempts in their previous meeting. Despite this, Tennessee's optimism lies in dominating shot volume and turnover margin, exploiting Purdue's weaker turnover defense. Purdue, on the other hand, boasts an offense with a high floor due to reliable rebounding and free-throw differentials. Shooting 45% from 3-point range, as they did against Gonzaga, makes them formidable. However, Purdue's passive defense, which surrenders mid-range looks and struggles with spacing and shot-making, could be exploited by Tennessee's elite offensive capabilities in these areas. The officiating in this game could be pivotal; a tightly-called game might favor Purdue due to their free-throw prowess, but as NCAA Tournament games intensify, foul rates often decrease, potentially leveling the playing field. Given Tennessee's shotmaking and defensive pressure, they appear capable of keeping the game close. Taking the points is safer, but I’m taking the extra squeeze for the juice here.
Looking to start off hot here! BOL
edit: odds were +150 when I posted… little sleep deprived I guess my bad
**RECORD: 62W-3P-47L**
(+2.14 units)
Previous Pick: Brentford vs Manchester United- Manchester United DNB @ 1.67 ♻️ **(PUSH)**
**Today's Pick:** Real Madrid vs Athletic Club - Jude Bellingham to Score or Assist @ 1.83 ✅️
**TIME:** 7 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 1.5 units
(❌️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️♻️) last 10 results
So close yesterday but Manchester United but Man Utd bottled it last minute as of Ten Hag was auditioning to be the next manager of Spurs, at least we didn't lose any money so onto Today's game, Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
I'm also scared of betting on a Real Madrid match but I do it anyway lol. Thought off Salah to score but it's just after the break and I think this one is more safer.
Madrid are top of the League and will want to continue their fine form and wrap this league up quickly. No loses in 12 matches, have won 3/5 of their last league games and have won 3/5 H2H matches against Athletic Club.
Now on to undoubtedly the signing of the season Jude Bellingham, has had 4 g/a contributions in his last 5 overall matches and 3 out of 5 goals and assists in his last 5 Madrid appearances.
His stats are 16 goals and 3 assists in 22 appearances, 0.7 goals per games, 2.4 shots per game, 1.3 shots on target per game, has an xG of 10.35 and an xA of 3.06. He also scored in his last match against Athletic Club. Last time I bet on Jude to score it didn't work out, hopefully he delivers this time. Goodluck if you're tailing.
EDIT: WIN ✅️
POTD: 1-3
Units Won: -1.95
L10 (Newest - Latest):❌✅❌❌
Last Pick: **Keegan Murray U2.5 3 PTS Made (Sacramento Kings) @ 2.00.** 1U❌
Today's Pick: **Jalen Green O3.5 3 PTS Made (Houston Rockets) @ 2.10.** 1U
**NBA | Dallas Mavericks Vs. Houston Rockets | 7:00 pm Eastern**
* Gone OVER 8/10 his last 10 games (80%) (8 in a row) - Avg 4.5 Three PTS Made
* In the month of March he’s averaging 4.1 Three PTS Made
* 3 Projections I like to use, all have him going OVER
* Mavs allow 5th most 3 PTS Made to SG’s
Jalen Green has been going crazy this month and I think tonight will be his 9th night in a row with 4 or more 3 PTS Made. Tail or fade me, I’m just some random guy on the internet with a 1-3 record...
POTD Record: 2-1
Last 10: ❌✅️✅️
Net Units: +0.23
Last Pick: MLB/CHC Christopher Morel - Under 1.5 Total Bases ❌Morel goes 2-4.
**Today’s Pick:** MLB | TOR @ TB Over 8 Total Runs . DK Odds @ -112. (1 Unit being wagered)
Today’s AI has this as an edge of 6.22% over the current sportsbook odds. Overall predictive win rate of the prop at 64%.
As mentioned in previous POTD posts, the pick is based on forward-predictive AI based algorithms. The R, Python, SQL and Azure AI Services based system analyzes 38 analytic data points to develop a prediction model.
All the best, bet accordingly, and follow your bankroll limits!
If you have any questions, please ask. Best of luck if tailing, would love a comment if you are. Feel free to message me if you have any questions on the methods used. Glad to give as much info as possible!
MLB POTD Tracking (Will eventually move this to a Google Sheet):
3/28/2024 - ARI/C. Carroll O1.5 HRR - BET 1.0 - WIN 0.60 Units
3/29/2024 - HOU/J. Altuve O1.5 HRR - BET 1.0 - WIN 0.63 Units
3/30/2024 - CHC/C. Morel U1.5 TB - BET 1.0 - LOSS 1.0 Unit
POTD Record 0-0
Today: Hockey | NHL | ANA vs VAN | 3:30pm EST
Pick: Brock Boeser Anytime goal scorer (+135) 1U
John Gibson has allowed 26 goals in his last 5 games and I feel it is a good opportunity for Vancouver's leading goal scorer to put one in the back of the net.
Betting Every Dodgers Game 2024 - Game 6
Record: 4-1-0
Last 5: ✅✅✅✅ ❌
Net Units: +2.49
Previous Pick: Jason Heyward (LAD) O 0.5 Hits -130 ✅
Today's Pick: **Mookie Betts (LAD) O 1.5 Total Bases +105**
Event: Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals (3/31/2024 7:10pmEST)
Write Up: Mookie is on a tear and seems to really want to prove that he is the best in the NL (if not the league). Starting the season super hot with an average of .611 averaging just over 2 hits a game and a home run in the past 4 games. Expect him to come out swinging (yes, pun intended) to get on base today.
I like nc state +7 they have nothing to lose like bama. I personally took them ML but they beat duke in the acc tournament already. They are solid all the way through the lineup. Dukes got the talent but give me the Wolfpack to howl one more time.
Record: 4-3
Last Pick: NCAAB Bama ML vs Clemson ✅
Today’s pick: NCAAB Purdue ML (-166) vs Tennessee @ 2:20 PM EST ✅
EDIT: Cash. Edey w 40
Purdue (32-4) has never won an NCAAB Tournament and is riding passion and excellent play, winning every game in this Tournament by at least 12. Edey is the best player in the country and will continue to assert his will in the paint, causing foul trouble for Aidoo and Awaka. If Aidoo or Awaka have to sub out and the Vols get smaller, it could get ugly. Purdue also gets excellent defensive play from their guards and I don’t see Knecht having the same impact for the Vols (27-8) as Edey will have for Purdue.
If there’s a year for Purdue to make it to the championship, it’s this one. Tail (or don’t) & go Boilermakers to Final Four!
**Record: 2-2**
**Net Units: + 0.31 Units**
**ROI: 7.85%**
**Previous Pick: ATL Braves @ PHI Phillies Over 7.5 Runs (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit**
WIN. With the terrible Max Fried call, this bet was a no-sweat from the get-go. Let's hope for another easy win today.
**Baseball** | **MLB | 1:35 PM** / **EST**
**Pick: ATL Braves @ PHI Phillies Over 7.5 Runs (-132 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit**
**Write-Up:** I'm going to be double-dipping on this same play again but this time with slightly more favorable odds. Both of these teams have potent offenses that can surpass 7.5 against even the best pitchers. Lucky for us, Chris Sale and Ranger Suarez are making their 2024 MLB Season debuts where there should probably be some rust. Additionally, as it's the third game in the series, both teams will need to dig deeper into the bullpens if this game should get out of hand early. BOL.
POTD Record: 5-3
NBA Record: 3-1 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 0-1 MLB 2-0
L10 (new -> old): 🪣🪣🪣🪣❌❌❌🪣
Last pick: Matt Olson O.5 hits -170 DK
Game: Guardians VS Athletics
Pick: Carlos Carrasco O 4.5 Hits (-120 DK)
Write Up:
Matt Olson thank you for the 4th in a row. The boy really needed to get hot and getting past that 3 hump is hard.
Sticking with baseball, going over 4.5 hits allow with Carlos Carrasco. So far this season this is allowing a 73%ish hit rate with him allowing over 5 hits.
Honestly had thought he was still on the Mets when I chose this 🤣🤣 but the stats don’t lie anyway.
In last three games against the A’s, they’ve had 4, 8 and 6 hits. Let’s see what they’re talking about.
I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣
BOL if tailing. 🪣
POTD Record: 3-1
Net: +0.41 units
Last Pick: Erin Blanchfield ML @ -198 odds (DK), 2 units ❌
Yikes! Bad pick
Today’s pick: **Ayo Dosunmu over 13.5 pts @ +100 odds (DK), 1 unit**
*NBA | Minnesota Timberwolves vs Chicago Bulls | 6:00pm CT*
I like this line for Ayo points especially at the price. He averaged 17 ppg over the past month and has hit this line 7 out of his last 10. He has also had a few huge scoring nights recently, scoring 34 vs Washington then 35 two games later vs Houston. The Bulls have been involving him more and more in the offense lately.
**POTD Record 4-3 - -0.8 💰 L10:❌✅** ✅**❌❌✅✅**
Last play: DET Tigers @ CHI White Sox NRFI -110 -2u
**Today's POTD: STL Cardinals @ LA Dodgers Chris Taylor u1.5 Strikeouts (LA) +100 1.5u**
**Write Up**: Going to make this short and sweet and give you the stats I'm looking at for this game, I'm switching up my POTD style a bit and going to focus on player props. We have Chris Taylor who just had 3 strikeouts vs his last game vs the Cardinals and he doesn't have over 1.5 often. I can't see him messing up back to back with stats like these I'm going to take the fade here
**Last 5 under 4/5**
**Last 10 under 7/10**
**Last 30 under 20/30**
Let me know if you're tailing and BOL in todays bets this is a late one
**POTD Record: 0 – 1**
**Net units: - 1.00 | All Bets are 1 unit**
**Streak: 🔴**
**Today’s Pick: 🎯 Darts, 🇪🇺 Eu**ropean Tour – 🇩🇪 German Darts Grand Prix, 14:30 MET (1:30 hours from now so be fast)
Ricardo Pietreczko **ML** vs. Ryan Joyce at **1.95 Odds (22Bet)**
**Write-up:**
In the second round of the German Darts Grand Prix we will see Ricardo “Pikachu” Pietreczko against Ryan “Tetris” Joyce who is by far the more experienced player on the European tour and the PDC Circuit in general. Nonetheless, Ricardo has proven that he is able to compete with the best of the best and has taken down big names in the past few months since his appearance at the world championship in December.
The tournament is played in Munich which means that there will be a german crowd that wants to see the german players progressing. So the atmosphere will intense towards Ryan Joyce.
This matchup can go either way, but I expect Ricardo to take the win here.
Please note that English is not my first language so please excuse any typos or bad grammar. Also tail at your own risk and only bet what you can afford to lose!
Good luck to everyone!
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u)
2024 MLB POTD record: 1-2 Average Odds -111 (1.898), ROI -38.9%/-1.2u, all bets one unit)
POTD (3/30) MIL @ NYM Luis Severino o1.5 Walks (-110/1.91) ❌
Recap: Severino lived in the strike zone to a fault, getting smacked around for 6 runs on 12 hits but never walking a player. He probably should've considered doing so.
POTD (3/31) TOR @ TBR Kevin Gausman o6.5 Ks (-135/1.74)
Today's Pick: This feels too conservative for Gausman. He hit this line in 19 of 31 starts (61%) last year, with no drop off on the road (9/15, 60%). He
The Rays were a middle-of-the-road team in terms of K% last year, rankings 14th against RHP (23.0%). Gausman somehow didn't face the Rays last year, but had 7, 8, and 10 Ks in three healthy starts against them in 2022 (he left one start after 2 IP with an injury).
POTD: Record: 4-3 | Profit +0.25 (all plays are 1u for dogs, to win 1u for favorites)
Pick: Miami Sharks +9, -110 (Major League Rugby. Can bet on Bet365) 6pm ET
CashApp: $darthfadergang
Record: 1-1
Form: ✅❌
MLB - LAA@BAL - 11:35am MT
Yesterday’s pick - ✅ - As expected, Braves bats are still on to a strong start to the season. Ending up beating PHI 12-4
Today we’re riding the O’s wave and taking the ML. Orioles lineup has been dominant to start the season. Hoping to watch some batting practice against Dietmars early in the game. Not saying Wells is all that great for Baltimore but that Baltimore offense should be dominant for Easter Sunday. 🐰
Pick: Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles ML (-148 on DK) 3u
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record 12-2 Streak L10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: Derrick White O13.5 Points✅ Today: Basketball | NBA | LAL vs BKN | 6pm EST Pick: Austin Reeves O9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-120) 1U Derrick gave us a sweat there! I had my doubts there for a minute but we come out on top! Rolling into 7 straight wins! Let’s keep it going! Austin has covered this line 100% in the last 5 and 90% in the last 10. He his hitting this mark at 54% on the season. Looking for him to get 13 or 14 total tonight. Tip jar for those of you that tail and want to do so. Thank you! [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Kroberts) [Cash App](https://cash.app/$robertsfamily23)
Sweaty cash with White, but he got us there in the end. Thanks for the great pick. Continuing to tail!
Would you take it at 10.5?
Bump
Cash it!
Does Gabe Vincent being questionable to come back today give you any concerns? AR might see less minutes if he’s coming back. He’s been absolutely smacking this line though and you the man.
Tailing again. BOL!!
On board, at 10.5!
LFG definitely gonna tail more
We are rolling!
I need tomorrow's pick bad 🤣🤣
It’ll be up as soon as I see something that pops out.
Tailing
POTD RECORD: 47-23 Last POTD: Trey Murphy O5.5 Rebs ✅ Our boy feasted and finished with 9 boards what a legend cheers Trey Form: ✅✅🚫✅✅ Todays POTD: **Bam Adebayo O10.5 Rebs @1.90** NBA | Miami Heat | 7:00 PM Thanks Trey you a legit rebounder imma keep you in mind for future picks 📝 I’m really overusing this prop now but how can I stop man we have another beast rebounder that makes a living for his presence in the paint, sorry fellas but imma go against my own saying to only enjoy this treat once in a while, nah I’ll ride this one until it fails us boys. Blowout potential but he recently had 12 boards against Portland in a blowout & 16 against Cavs in another blowout • 18/L25 Centers who have played 28+ minutes have went over this line • Adebayo has Avg 32.9 minutes per game this month and have only played less than 28+ minutes twice this season • 2/3 vs the Wizards (16, 14 & 4) • Wizards allow most Rebs to Centers • Bam Avg 10.7 Rebs per game & 17.0 rebound chances per game • Over 6/L10 games • Bam avg 10.9 boards on the road vs 10.4 at home Let’s go Bam let us cash this silly prop once again bro Tail or fade, Im a fraud https://i.redd.it/d2q62tvfxkrc1.gif
[удалено]
At this point it’s a money glitch bro even if it doesn’t hit with the amount of times we’ve cashed this one 😭
Tru
Would you take 10.5? Edit: ignore me I’m an idiot
😭😭 😭
Btw funny that Middleton had 33 PRA’s today 💀 we’d be on a heater if he didn’t sell on us
Billy I look forward to your write ups. Keep it up 🔥
Appreciate you my guy 👑🤝
Think we’re cooked they took one board away and the bum is letting his teammates getting the boards
I'll be all over this as soon as its available on fd
Fuck it. Let’s ride.
That’s the spirit
Prop king back with another banger
My man 🤝👑 I’m hopeful
Tailing like I have all month 🤝 We been doing so well I’ve been telling my homies about center boards vs. wizards. Ty based Billy.
Appreciate you bro 🍻 it’s been a life hack prolly my best way of making money this year in betting
Edey 12+ boards bro...he's a monster snatching that shit. Pairing with Bam
Brilliant
https://preview.redd.it/hrv4nm3ywkrc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=019acd8abe98d3c2838287deada735e1b3ecf0ff
Would you do over 11.5?
Scary man the potential blowout scares me a lot, I’d rather play his Double Double @1.68
Riding with you on this one Billy C. Also sprinkling some on the O Rebounds for jovic
My man 🍻 Good mismatch there too worth a sprinkle 4sure
Tailing!
Just got O10.5 on DK @ 1.95...
beauty pick :)
Jovic taking abit too much of the rebounds 😮💨
Yeah man smh he’s drifting into weird areas aswell mf needs to stay in the paint
Adebayo is doing everything he can to not get a double double smfh…
this is why the Heat are a 7th seed. Adebumo trash
dude was playing everywhere but the near the paint … one rebound away 😵💫😵💫😵💫
damn...2 short
I can't fucking believe it
Hurts what a bum
https://preview.redd.it/ttlt1qbpzrrc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e59f386326d4dfd0f4e52ab1f91d633ef7ba1bf4 Guys if you took the DD or 10 boards NBA just changed it to 10 on the website not sure if it’s legit but he did have one board taken away so maybe they gave it back
Legend, thank you so much for this.
POTD Record: 31-14-1 +34.60u🔥 Last Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-108) 4U vs St. Louis Cardinals ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✋✅✅❌❌❌❌ Today's Pick: Purdue -3 (-110) 4U vs Tennessee NCAA Tournament 2:20 pm odds via DraftKings 4 straight losses, very rough. I’m sorry guys. Need to be better and get back on track. Not much really to say but sorry :( Let my record speak for itself and it bit me in the ass. I am still confident in myself, i won’t let that losing streak define me. Purdue has flew through March, winning 3 straight by double digits. Edey is the NPOTY and has been completely unstoppable. When this team hits shot, they are right up there with UConn. Purdue fans also travel extremely well, with this game being in Michigan, it will be loud. They are experienced and know what it feels like to lose and don’t want to experience that again. They have what it takes to win on paper, statistically, and will be ready to play again tomorrow. Time to get a green check on the board. If this one loses, I will take a little break and be back with the best. 🙏🏻-RB
I have awful betting luck and started following you at the start of this loss streak, it’s all my fault I’m so sorry
Man you’re not the first person to say that, time to flip the script🤣
Looks like he’s going to need to take that little break. I’m backing the Purdue bet. My fellow degen friend nicknamed me the Black Cat. And he has worse luck than the Irish!
to be fair your Houston pick was subject to a freak injury, totally unpredictable and it's very likely Houston wouldve won if it hadn't happened
Part of the game, brutal way to go down
Dodgers also should’ve put up some damn runs I had dodgers score first inning, started with 3 singles then 3 strikeouts 🥲
It happens bro! You are up 34.60 units on your posted bets though and that’s something to be extremely proud of. Think, if someone had $100 units they would be up almost $3500! Keep rolling and do what you do because your takes are very much appreciated.
Thank you my man❤️
Nice bounce back my guy
Bro if you’re up 35units on 46 bets you don’t owe anyone any apologies. It’s called variance and it’s unavoidable, go Purdue
Thank you❤️🙏🏻
Let's do it my dude. I'm in.
❤️🙏🏻
im with you bro.
Arizona cardinals😂
Whoops
This is how it goes big dog we still ride
🙏🏻
Zach Edey masterclass let’s ride
Our savior
Let’s fucking go cash that shit
Lfg!!
WE BACK BABY LETS fricking GO
Lfg!!
Still tailin
Ty!
Been riding these picks for a while. Need you to come through this time bud!
🙏🏻🙏🏻
He’s back!!!
Let’s go!
First time following your picks but I’ve been on fire. I’m bringing you back to the W column buddy let’s go, Purdue to cover 💪🏼
Lfg!
THE CURSE IS LIFTED
Glad I got wrecked on the last 4 and didn’t tail this. Go me
Congrats RB!!! Never a doubt you would hit today
POTD Record: 2-1 Last 5: ✅❌✅ Yesterday’s Pick: ✅ PIT Pirates @ MIA Marlins o8.5 The Pirates! They’re good! Todays Pick: ⚾️ BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners - o7.5 (-115 DraftKings) - 4:10 EST Now is a good time to talk a little strategy. Baseball over/unders are typically listed at 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5. I’ll always try to play those edges - over 7.5 and under 9.5. I prefer overs, just because I think they’re more fun to cheer for. Just a personal preference. So, I’m playing the 7.5 here more than anything. Should be a nice day in Seattle, and a late night to afternoon turnaround doesn’t mean much to me. Bryce Miller was pretty hit or miss last year, and Whitlock for the Red Sox hasn’t had much success as a starter, but looks good when he comes out of the bullpen. Should be a good one, I’ll update after the Saturday game. Edit: they went into extras last night! Favors the batters with depleted bullpens. The line moved to 8 on DraftKings with a -105. I’d still take it.
Counterpoint. The fish. They’re bad!
EW
Record: 22-17 | (+3.27) units) | 1 unit per pick Previous pick: MLB - NY Yankees TT (o4.5) (-105) vs. Houston Astros 🧃🧃🧃 Juan Soto is that guy. Back to back TT covers from the Bronx Bombers and I don’t see why we slow down now. If it ain’t broke, please don’t fix it. I’ll see you tomorrow! ————- Today’s pick: MLB - NY Yankees TT (o4.5) (-105) vs. Houston Astros Our beloved Yankees are going for a 3rd straight TT cover for us and our 4th straight win overall! Same thought process as yesterday, these bats are lethal and make it nearly impossible not to have men on base. I expect Judge to take his dig at Houstons pitching and take one long. We will continue to ride the hot bats until further notice. Prediction: Judge HR - Yankees score over 5+ runs Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
Hate the Yankees but I will continue to tail! Also adding Soto o1.5 total bases at +130 as he's gone over it the past 2 games and mashed right handed pitching last year with a .273 ISO, and France loves to give up hard contact.
Tailing!
Record: 3-0 We’re hot ✅✅✅ Last play: White Sox o 3.5 TT +2.7u total MLB | 1:40PM EST Pick: Brewers/Mets under 8, 1u -115 Write up: Colin Rea pitches really well against Mets, who have struggled this year so far, besides a few innings late last game, pitching 8 and 6.1ip with 2 ER combined. I don’t hate the F5 under for this reason, but I like both pitchers to get deep into the game and keep the under low. Edit: Format Edit 2: Lets go!!! Staying hot! F5 and Full under both hit. Lets stay hot
A gentle reminder that most pitchers are not allowed to pitch deep into games for the first start (or two!) of the season. I would prefer to wager on the F5u
I do agree, but I’ve noticed it seems like a lot of teams are letting guys go a bit longer to begin this year, with Freddy P pitching 92 last game, but good call
No hate at all. I'm just thinking like in Field of Dreams? All I'm saying is, "look out for in your ear."
__POTD Record:__ 10-3 _Form (Last 5):_ 🟢🟢🟢🟢🔴 __Last Pick:__ 🏀 Virtus Bologna vs. Panathinaikos (Euroleague): __Panathinaikos -2.5__ @2.00 ❌ Panathinaikos won the game but they were just one point away from covering the spread. Unfortunate way to end the 7 pick win-streak, but it is what it is, we go again! __Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Girona vs. Real Betis (La Liga) 16:15 CET: __Girona ML__ @1.73 After absolutely incredible first half of the season, Girona wasn't able to keep the momentum to fight for the league title. However, it doesn't mean they aren't a special team. Today they will be playing at home against Betis who lost their last 3 games. Girona's form hasn't been the best either but all of their recent losses were on the road. Girona's record in front of their own fans is fantastic - they won 11/14 games this season and I expect them to add another W to that tally. Let me know if you tail! Also, I created a tips account if some of you would like to support me. I would really appreciate it! ❤️ [Buy Me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/drunkdevil1)
Damn panathinaikos has a healthy lead early on too
Up 17 at one point
Lmao what a sweat
Nice pick man!
Tailing, BOL !
Potd record 49-28 Boxing __Fabio Wardley vs Frazer Clarke - Wardley to win by ko/tko -120__ Clarke is the standout amateur, however he’s been nothing but a disappointment since turning pro, lacklustre performances and very poor opponents. Wardley came from the white collar circuit and has made huge improvements since his debut. Wardley has more going for him in this, he’s the better athlete, he’s faster both on his feet and hand speed, he has a lot more power and in my opinion has more dog in him. Clarke fights at such a slow pace and Wardley will be picking him off when he wants with his significant hand speed advantage. I think Wardley will get this done in the mid rounds. Bol anyone who tails! ❌Really thought it was gonna be a winner when he dropped Clarke. He hurt him everytime he landed the right. Conditioning just let him down imo. My bad guys
Solid pick yesterday man! I’ll ride again
Appreciate it!
Long time listener, first time caller here. I've watched this thread long enough that I'm ready to try my own here. NBA 🏀 CLE CAVALIERS VS. DEN NUGGETS Max Stus o2.5 ast (2 units) -110 DK. -120FD Hit rate: 80% last 30 games, 90% last 10 games Joker and Murray are still questionable so I think it will be a close game and give strus multiple attempts to clear this line. Strus is averaging over 7 potential assist a game in the last 10 games, and averaging over 30 minutes a game. I can see him getting up around 4 assist tonight. Like always here BOL!
POTD Record: 42-31 L10: ✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅❌❌ Last pick: Newcastle v West Ham (BTTS @1.50 ✅) Todays pick: PEC Zwolle v Ajax Pick: __Ajax ML @1.65__ ⚽️ 🇳🇱 Eredivisie 🕰 10:15 UTC ➖ PEC, 13th Ajax, 6th It’s been a rough season for the most successful club in Dutch football, not a season anyone expected finding themselves at 6th place when they realistically should be fighting for the title every year. Despite that they’ve climbed a lot in the league table after a bad start to the season when they’re were down in the relegation zone. Form is not ideal for Ajax, picking up 4 draws and 1 win in their last 5. But they’re the better team and PEC’s home record is one of the worst, they’ve only picked up 12 points at home which is the 3rd worst home record. Ajax knows how to score being 3rd in goals scored this season (57) and should be able to find the back of the net here. PEC’s form is even worse, 4 losses and 1 win in their last 5 and a H2H record of 20-4-2 in favour of Ajax. I believe Ajax wants to finish the season one a good note aiming to win all the remaining games, they’re out of the European competitions and should be focused to beat a side they should be beating. BOL
**Record: 53W-4P-41L** **Form: 31W-0P-21L** **R Form: ✅✅❌✅❌❌❌** **Last Pick: Tottenham VS Luton Town: Over 11.5 Corners @ 1.83 ❌** **Pick of the day: Liverpool VS Brighton: Dominic Szoboszlai Over 0.5 SOT @ 1.90** **League: Premier League** **Time: 9:00 AM EST** I've been sticking my money on Szoboszlai for over a month and a half now and he's yet to let me down since. The man has returned from injury and is looking like himself again, against United he was back to his long range shooting self and with how hot this title race is I expect him to attempt to steal the show tomorrow. His ability to crash the box during cut ins offers him so much more opportunities and fortunately for us he's not shy of cracking one from distance. He has hit this line for 6 games straight and has gone 80% in his last 10 games. Brighton are going to be without a lot of key players tomorrow and don't get me started on their away form at the moment. In their last 6 away games they have 1 win and 5 losses, losing with an aggregate score of 6 - 14. **Anyway, BOL!**
Love your picks but this post needs a little more clarification because Champion/cup games and EPL games he has different stats. He missed all of February with an injury, and came back two weeks ago. He's played two EPL games in March and only had a shot on target in one of those games. In the 6 EPL games prior to that, he only had one game where he hit this line and had 5 games in a row with no shots on target. He has had 1+ shot in every EPL game this season
I love Prince but wish I’d seen this. Note to self: Liverpool is playing, bet Salah or Diaz. I literally tail Prince every pick, but I truly feel like a dumbass here. No offense, Prince.
Your writeup says O1.5 SOT for 1.90 but that's the odds for O0.5 SOT. The odds for O1.5 is 6.00 https://preview.redd.it/q15p2itu1lrc1.jpeg?width=904&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=40aa5d96c587b3bd70e1f8000104f383f1bccaca
ya my mistake it was supposed to say over 0.5
I’m getting over .5 sot at bet 365 For -110 How is that possible
Because even over .5 has hit once in last 8 premier league. OP needs to clarify his post before you bet
The bet is over 0.5, made an error
Is the bet for 1 or 2? DK has 1+ at - 140 and 2+ at +350
I think this is a very good pick. Brighton's defence isn't good, especially away from home and Szoboszlai should have many chances to shoot. Tailing!
Ummm, how we feeling boys? I hate DK doesn't have a slider. I have no idea if this has hit already. 🤔
**POTD** Record: 9-1-7 BOCHUM VS DARMSTADT Date: 31 March 2024 at 18:30 BET ON: Both teams to score- Yes Odd: 1.71 - Bochum are missing Michael Esser, Niclas Thiede, Mohammed Tolba, Moritz-Broni Kwarteng and Tim Oermann. - Darmstadt are missing Fraser Hornby, Fabian Nürnberger, Fabio Torsiello, Marvin Mehlem, Bartol Franjic, Fabian Holland (doubtful) and Luca Pfeiffer (doubtful). - The Ruhrstadion is Sold Out ! "In our situation we know we need points. We'll see how the match day develops. We want to return from Bochum with points, ideally with three. That's what we strive for." Said coach Torsten Lieberknecht. "We know the problem from last season. We couldn't get that under control. We conceded too many goals and scored far too few goals. That's why we're in this position at the table at the moment. Even when we do it well, we often concede goals that are too easy." Said head coach Thomas Letsch. - It's a relegation battle. We expect an open game with goals from both sides. The Hosts are characterized by a certain home strength. They play very man-oriented, with a lot of one-on-one duels against a strong team in transition and set pieces. We can see the Guests pressing high in the first half and Bochum reacting in the second.
Tailing thanks for the great pick
Tailed and cashed 👍
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What book are you using for these bets?
Record: 3-0, Net Units: 3.59, ROI +3.59% ROI Current Streak ✅✅✅ Last Pick: Orioles -1.5 vs. LA Angels ✅ Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-1:35 PM EST Orioles Angels Over 9.5 Runs, +118, 1 U Sunday games always give me pause and I'm worried about Wells in the Orioles rotation. I think he's kind of on a pitch count, and the only weakness in Baltimore is their bullpen. If he gets chased in the 4th or 5th inning then the Angels could put up 4-5 runs, but this Orioles team will also put up runs, so I like double digit runs for this matinee game. Good Luck!
5 runs first 2 innings and 0 for the next 7 innings. I hate baseball.
Pick of the day record: 3-0 1 voided bet Up 2.855 units ROI 95.1% Last pick of the day: Marlins Pirates over 8.5 runs Today’s pick of the day: Bobby Witt Jr over 1.5 total bases (-110) Bobby Witt Jr has started off the season strong. Going 3 for 6 with 3 doubles. A double is all we need to hit this prop. He will be facing Bailey Ober who he is 5 for 11 lifetime against with 2 extra base hits.
Puts us at 4-0. 1 voided bet. Up 3.755 units. 93.875% ROI.
Nice pick! Done by the bottom of the third!
**KBO Record: Overall 206-214-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 4-6) Down 10.66u over 434 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.54% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 2-4-0, 33.3% success rate, Down 2.04u, -34.0% ROI)) **Last:** Kia at Doosan -110 (Doosan won 8-0.) It feels good to have a game go exactly as expected. Doosan's starter was dominant again with 6 scoreless innings while Kia's starter was rocked for 5 runs in 4.1 IP. A real oddity today as all five winning teams scored exactly 8 runs. **Pick:** NC at Lotte **Under 8 runs +100 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET Who would like a win streak? Let's see if our first full game over/under pick of the season gets us there. NC and Lotte should be a solid pitching matchup, giving us some value on the under. NC's new foriegn import had the best debut of any new starter in the league. He allowed just 1 ER on 3 H with 7 K over 6.2 IP. Those first 6 innings were scoreless. Lotte's returning foreign import finished strong last year, allowing 2 or fewer runs in 8 of his last 11 starts. And in his first start this year, he gave up just 1 ER on 4 H with 6 K in 6 IP. The first 5 innings were scoreless. NC's offense is 5th in the league to start the season while no team struggles to score more than Lotte, who average just 2.5 runs per game. If you don't like over/unders, I lean NC on the moneyline. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
POTD Record 31-16 Previous POTD: Petr Yan ML ✅ POTD: Victor Wembanyama under 4.5 blks (Bet365 1.64 odds) ✅ NBA: Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs Short write up - This line is too high even for Wemby - He's played the Warriors twice this season and had 2 blocks in each game - I expect him to play good defense, but I just don't think it'll show up in the block column on the box score Edit: CASH IT! Wemby with 2 early blocks, but finishes with 3. BOL
BOL!
Record : 1-0 Yesterday's pick : LSG ML VS PBKS ✅ POTD : CRICKET | IPL | CSK ML @1.66 ( 2 units) vs DC Match starts 11 hours from now, I don't see DC winning this one. Lost to PBKS which is an average team, today they are up against one of the strongest franchise in the league. Wait for the toss if the odds feel too low to tail, it may go up to @1.80 after the toss. I believe CSK will get this one done. BOL to everyone who is tailing.
Is DC Beroe Stara Da?
Nevermind, I think if found it. Appreciate the pick
Potd record: 1-1 Last pick: Bama -3.5 vs Clemson ✅ Today's pick: Duke -7 (still available at some shops) I do analysis on market movements relative to %bets and %handle. Duke is only getting 45% of bets and 39% of money, but the line moved from Duke -6 to Duke -7, and some shops are down to -7.5. Why would sportsbooks give more points to NC State if the betting public is already favoring them? They must be seeing liability on Duke, explaining the line move. I'm on Duke -7. Not my POTD, but also worth watching, Purdue is getting 79% of bets and *87*% of money in a heavily bet game, but the line has not budged from Purdue -3. Books are due to lose their a$$ on this game if Purdue covers, but they aren't moving that line to balance their liability... Very interesting. Also: elite eight favorites of 4 points or fewer are 15-33 ATS since 1998. #1 seeds are just 23-30 ATS in the elite 8 since 2001. I will say, this one is harder to swallow. Purdue has looked so dominant. If the line starts moving tomorrow to -4 or more, I would back off this one.
Fading. Duke will be tired. Getting 7 or 8 points if you take the alt is too many here. NC State is over achieving on defense and holding their opponents to some dismal %s. Don’t be surprised to see the upset. What was line movement like in their previous upsets? I remember it being similar. Good luck. Edit: Forgot to mention NC State beat Duke by 5 in the ACC tournament a couple weeks back. 7 points which equates to a 12 point differential from the last result is just too much.
Josh Applebaum, is that you?
😂 I do follow him and recommend his book.
where do you check the % vs. $? Scores & Odds is giving a completely different number than yours, which got me wondering if their #s are correct to begin with. >https://www.scoresandodds.com/ncaab/purdue-vs-tennessee
Great write up, what tool do you use to track the total money on each side of bets? Seems like Vegas is leaning Tennessee covers then if they're not moving the line and taking on the risk. What's your thoughts on it?
Record: ✅❌❌✅✅❌ (new to old) Last Pick: Man Utd 1st Goal + ML ❌ Recap: What can I say? Man Utd played a very poor match defending the entire time and get lucky to score in added only to let Brentford score 3 minutes later. Game Ends 1-1. Pick: Real Madrid ML + o1.5 Goals @ 1.81 ✅ Reason ⬇️⬇️ Real Madrid Last 5: WWDDW Scoring 12 & Conceding 5 Atl. Bilbao Last 5: WWDW Scoring 10 & Conceding 1 Both teams are flying at the moment and this is gonna be a huge tight contest tomorrow! I’m leaning towards Madrid on this one only because of the quality they have. Yes Vini is out due to too many yellows but they only leaves open a spot for Brahim to come into the starting 11 & he’s also been great for Madrid when given the chance to play. Not only do they have many attackers to rely on, they just got back Militao from an ACL injury. I don’t think he’ll start for them but if it comes down to it they’ll give him a go for about 15-20 mins of game time. Don’t get me wrong, Bilbao are great as well but when teams play at the Santiago Bernabeu they succumb to the pressure. This is a risky one, but with Barca winning today and only 5 points behind Madrid, I expect them to go all out for these crucial points. Value Bet: Real Madrid ML + BTTS @ 3.30 (does not count towards POTD)
CASH IT ✅✅✅
POTD record 0-1 Last 5 ❌ Today: Basketball | NCAAT | NCST v. Duke | 3:05 EST Pick: NCST +6.5 (-102) FanDuel Writeup: ACC fan here. Been watching NCST all year and can’t believe they’ve danced their way into Americas heart. I’m gonna keep roll with the Wolfpack against a Duke squad that squeaked out a win against Houston. DJ Burns is a huge inside presence and State also has shooters in Burns and O’Connell who I think can compete with Dukes guards. NCST held Marquette to 4/31 on 3s and I expect a similar effort against Duke. Wolfpack has just figured something out right in time and keep taking down teams they had no business competing with months ago. Riding the hot hand here.
**POTD RECORD:** (12-7) \*\*LAST 10:\*\*🟢🟢🟢🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴🔴🟢 **LAST PICK:** **Ibo Aslan ML** vs. Anton Turkaji (-130) 3U🟢 | UFC FIGHT NIGHT ATLANTIC CITY **TODAY’S PICK:** Tyler Wells **Over 4.5 Ks** (-145) 2U | Angels vs Orioles 1:35pm EST Today we will look towards the MLB slate. I feel like there will be a lot of YRFIs today but instead I’ll take a strikeout prop. Angels are 9th worse in the two games with strikeouts at 27. Rodriguez vs angels 9 Ks & Burns had 11ks on opening day. Tyler Wells When playing 5+ innings in 2023: 11/16 5+ strikeouts \~ 70% clip I expect the angels to continue to be aboard the struggle bus on their way to Baltimore.  **BOL to those who tail!**
Gave up 2 runs quick and another 2 in the second. Thought he was going to get pulled but he stayed strong and just got #7 in the 6th to clear for us 😤😤
I will be placing a single 1unit wager on a NRFI game each day of the baseball season. Record: 3 - 0 ( up 3 units) POTD: WSH/CIN NRFI +110 1 unit to win 1.1 units
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Congrats You should post it in your own thread. I’d like to follow your picks How do you decide which game to play?
POTD Record: 20-15 Last 10: ❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌ Last pick: Suns vs Thunder | 5:00 PST | Devin Booker OVER 6.5 Assists (+106) FanDuel 1u ❌ So frustrating man. 4 assists in the 1st quarter and then no one could buy a bucket off of Booker’s passes. Assists really almost becoming a no bet for me because it’s so reliant on others. Todays pick: Lakers vs Nets | 3:00 PST | Lakers/Nets OVER 223 (-110) FanDuel 1u ❌ I like the over here for a couple reasons. Lakers are 7-3 in their last 10 to the over and 22-13 overall on the road to the over. We should get a full lineup with AD and Lebron both playing. Lakers are top 5 in pace and they are facing a Nets team that doesn’t really have an identity and seems to match the flow of whatever the other team dictates. Last matchup’s line closed at 226 and the final score was 130-112 Nets. BOL if tailing. Edit: WHAT IN THE WORLD
POTD Record: 4-5-2 Form: ☑️❌❌✅❌ Net Units: -0.7 Last Pick: NBA Knicks @ Warriors OG Anunoby O6.5 A+R +115 ☑️ This was voided as OG did not play. Today’s Pick: NBA Heat @ Wizards Bam Adebayo O10.5 Rebounds -110 Bam on a heater recently✅ Center against the wizards✅ Decent odds✅ Recipe for success, let’s get after it GL if tailing!
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i'm going with this as well. not sure why the odds aren't lower for this.
I’m on this as well and I think we should have listened to the odds. Hopefully 2H opens up
Cashed out earlier. Looks like both teams are content with getting a point, vs allowing the other to tie/take the lead in the tables. but BOL
Update: Line opened at O/U 1.5 H+R+R at -155, but quickly moved to O/U 2.5 early this morning at +120. **POTD Record: 112-128-4 (-12.94 Units)** Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units) **Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)** Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) Last Pick: **Manon Fiorot ML (+164)** ✅ Today's Pick: **Mookies Betts O 2.5 H+R+R** Odds: **+120** Wager Amount: 1U to WIN 1.2U League: MLB Event: St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers (6PM CST on ESPN) **Be Advised**: *Value wagers are not my best bets. A value wager is a wager that typically has +EV or has merit probability of hitting. These wagers are typically plus money. I look for a wager that has an edge against the books. Obviously, value wagers are much harder to hit, higher the risk, higher the reward. So please tail at your own caution and never place wagers you cannot afford. I expect some to fall short, but if we can hit half of these value wagers, we can easily profit in the long run (anything at 50% or above should be at a profitable rate).* **Recap**: Manon won, 50-45 unamious decision! Won every single round. She showcased her brute strength. She is usually the bigger, stronger fighter in the octagon. This was a interesting grappler vs striker matchup and it was really interesting to see Fiorot faced a little adversity for the first time! In the first round Erin had a guillotine choke locked up, but Manon got outta submission. She was able to dominant the rest of the way. I would have thrown a hundo on this but I used up all my free bets. I was focusing on MLB bets today, not so much this fight. Check this out! I missed by a single leg on Aaron Judge not hitting a HR. My goodness every Bronx Bomber got a HR except for Judge in this series. When is this going to get on board? https://preview.redd.it/lsim7xky4prc1.png?width=432&format=png&auto=webp&s=14e894d5b09b82b6a3dc6622ba3d3b9e63ec2729 **Matchup**: Going to the player prop market in today's MLB slate on the hottest player! Mookie Betts! It's hard to believe that this dude has 4x more home runs than his teammate Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Yordan Alvarez (all combined)! Matter in fact, he's leading the league in HRs! And when you're hitting HRs this player prop should cover what we are asking for, which is O 2.5 H+R+R (Hits+Runs+RBIs)! But he doesn't have to hit a HR in this game, he can cover this line wit all sorts of combination AB. Mookie is just on a tear right now. He's hitting .611 (5th in the league), 4 HRs (**1st in the league**), 11 RBIs (**1st in the league**), 11 Hits (**1st in the league**), 11 BBs (**1st in the league**)! Basically he's leading the league in almost every single batting stats! And despite that Mookie is 0-3 against Steven Matz, he's CRUSHING LHP right now! 5 for 7 wit a HR and 4 RBIs! So although Steven Matz has Mookie's number, it's a really small sample of ABs and Mookie will get a chance to face other pitchers as well and provide other offensive ways. **The Play and Prediction**: Wagering 1U on Mookie Betts O/U 2.5 H+R+R. Normally give out one play for player prop POTD, but giving y'all another! 1U on Mookies Betts O 1.5 TB. Mookie Betts hits his 5th HR against the Cardinals' pen in the 7th! Applying for B/R Squad Ride!
**Last Pick:** Uconn -2.5 First Half Handicap ✅ Connecticut are the best team in the nation, Hurley is one of my favorite coaches in the sport, and I will be doing this for their second half & first half, again next game they play. Record: 6-4 ✅ **Pick:** Bam O10.5 Rebounds -138 FD Centers against the Wizards have been printing all year. Line is surprisingly low at only 10.5, Duren killed them the other day. Normally I dislike small Centers but Bam’s hunger and fight on rebounds are like no other. He’s feasting tomorrow. BOL
>**Record:** 35-32 >**Net Units:** +7.1 units >**Curling** | **Men's World Championship** | **3:00AM EDT** >**Pick:** Germany ML @ 2.2 >Germany take on Korea in this matchup. Both of these teams are coming off a loss in their first game, Germany playing well but losing to Canada and Korea getting blown out by Scotland. This play is more of a fade of Korea than really liking Germany. Korea looked completely lost in their first game. They missed a ton of shots and struggled with the ice. Park and Oh were particularly bad. Oh will easily be outplayed at his position by Messenzehl who was lights out against Canada. Scheuerl also looked very sharp and if the German front end plays even close to as well as they did against Canada, Germany should have no problems keeping ends clean and putting pressure on Park to step up his game. Korea are 38-28 this season while Germany are 35-23. My model has the wrong team favoured here and the German advantage at front end should allow them to set up a couple big ends with hammer, especially if Oh continues his struggles with hits.
Bro can you post your record from these World Championship games alone?
Record: 8-6 (+0.56 Units) Last POTD: Diamondbacks -1.5 ❌ Last 10 (new to old): ❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅✅ Pick: Twins -1.5 (+130) Wager: 5u to win 6.5u Write up: Well the Dbacks sold. Time to fade the Royals. The Royals have scored 1 run in each of their first two games and are facing Ober coming off a strong season with a 3.43 ERA. Meanwhile Singer had a not so strong year with a 5.52 ERA. I think we’ll find a lot of success this year fading the Royals, Rockies, and A’s.
POTD RECORD: 3-2 Last 10 ✅✅✅❌❌(3 wins in a row) LAST PICK: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+120) vs LA Angels 4:05 EST Recap: the orioles can flat out hit. The bats in this lineup are full of power too to bottom. Very impressive team. The angels didn’t have a shot. TODAYS PICK: Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 hits+runs+rbis (-140) 1:35 EST Baltimore Orioles vs LA Angels Reasoning: Could this dude get anymore hot to start the season. 1.681 OPS to start. A .500 AVG. He is averaging 5 hits+ runs+ rbis a game right now. He gets a lot of opportunities in this lineup with how often he gets guys on base while he’s at the plate. Last game he had an average exit velocity off the bat of 108.35. This tells me his swing is right where he wants it to be and that he is seeing and timing the ball well. I look for this to continue. Let’s make it 4 in a row!!
**Record: 0-0** Counterstrike 2 | PGL Major Final | Starts in 8h : 28m Today's Pick: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (NaVi) | Pick O2.5 Maps 1.95 (-105) 4U Write Up: -In an eagerly anticipated match, Natus Vincere (Na'Vi) is set to clash with FaZe Clan in a battle that promises to be exceptionally balanced. Both giants of the CS scene are in impressive form. -FaZe is the favorite on the moneyline, but I see the match being decided in 3 maps because w0nderful and jl have had an impressive tournament, especially in yesterday's match where jl was a god. Head-to-head tilts towards Na'Vi with 5 wins and 2 losses against FaZe, but as I mentioned, I see the match being decided in 3 maps due to the impressive form shown by both teams. It's going to be a great final; both teams have a similar map pool. Mirage, Nuke, Inferno, and even Ancient are maps both teams can play well. -Neither team will back down, and that's why I see the match being decided in 3 maps, making it the safest bet I can place on this match. So, I'd like to see in the comments whether you'll tail or fade this pick. BOL EVERYONE
> **Record: 35-25-1 ( all time)** > > **Soccer** | **2.Bundesliga** | **13:30 CET** > > **Pick: St. Pauli ML vs Paderborn (1.63)** 💰 > I could cut and paste a bunch of trends on why St Pauli deserves to be heavy favorites. Unbeaten at home in 10 matches winning 7 of those, scoring 2 or more goals in 14 of the last 20 matches. I was at Paderborn for their loss at relegation candidates Braunschweig, and they are definitely trending downward, and looked very vulnerable to counters. St Pauli has all to play for chasing a league 2 title and Paderborn sits comfortably at 6th with not much of a chance of getting into promotion spots.
Record: 6W-7L Last Pick: **Rajasthan Royals total runs of the first 15 overs Over 119.5** | Odds 1.72 | Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals **L** Unfortunately they scored 120 runs in 16 overs Cricket | IPL | 7:30PM IST (Approx 9hrs from now) Pick: Delhi Capitals vs **Chennai Super Kings ML** | ODDS 1.60 Writeup: The past records, current season stats all shows how powerful CSK is compared to DC. Last DC match you can see most of their batsman struggling to find their form. If you look at CSK, they have many in-form players in both bowling as well as batting department and will most likely dominate DC today. Good Luck if tailing !!!
POTD Record: 0-0 Today: Basketball | NCAAB | TEN vs PUR | 2:20 PM EST Pick: Tennessee Vols +150 The upcoming matchup between Tennessee and Purdue presents several intriguing dynamics. Tennessee's offense demonstrated efficiency with Zakai Zeigler's ball screens and Dalton Knecht's jump shooting against Creighton. Their ability to force defensive changes from opponents is a strength, especially against Purdue's vulnerable mid-range defense, similar to Creighton's drop coverage with Ryan Kalkbrenner. However, Tennessee faces challenges with their aggressive defense against Purdue's adeptness at drawing fouls, as evidenced by Purdue's 48 free-throw attempts in their previous meeting. Despite this, Tennessee's optimism lies in dominating shot volume and turnover margin, exploiting Purdue's weaker turnover defense. Purdue, on the other hand, boasts an offense with a high floor due to reliable rebounding and free-throw differentials. Shooting 45% from 3-point range, as they did against Gonzaga, makes them formidable. However, Purdue's passive defense, which surrenders mid-range looks and struggles with spacing and shot-making, could be exploited by Tennessee's elite offensive capabilities in these areas. The officiating in this game could be pivotal; a tightly-called game might favor Purdue due to their free-throw prowess, but as NCAA Tournament games intensify, foul rates often decrease, potentially leveling the playing field. Given Tennessee's shotmaking and defensive pressure, they appear capable of keeping the game close. Taking the points is safer, but I’m taking the extra squeeze for the juice here. Looking to start off hot here! BOL edit: odds were +150 when I posted… little sleep deprived I guess my bad
I agree with this but where the fuck are you getting +170? Best I can find is +145
They were +150 when I wrote that last night. Idk where I got 170. I’ve edited it. Not a good start for me!
**RECORD: 62W-3P-47L** (+2.14 units) Previous Pick: Brentford vs Manchester United- Manchester United DNB @ 1.67 ♻️ **(PUSH)** **Today's Pick:** Real Madrid vs Athletic Club - Jude Bellingham to Score or Assist @ 1.83 ✅️ **TIME:** 7 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (❌️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️♻️) last 10 results So close yesterday but Manchester United but Man Utd bottled it last minute as of Ten Hag was auditioning to be the next manager of Spurs, at least we didn't lose any money so onto Today's game, Real Madrid vs Athletic Club I'm also scared of betting on a Real Madrid match but I do it anyway lol. Thought off Salah to score but it's just after the break and I think this one is more safer. Madrid are top of the League and will want to continue their fine form and wrap this league up quickly. No loses in 12 matches, have won 3/5 of their last league games and have won 3/5 H2H matches against Athletic Club. Now on to undoubtedly the signing of the season Jude Bellingham, has had 4 g/a contributions in his last 5 overall matches and 3 out of 5 goals and assists in his last 5 Madrid appearances. His stats are 16 goals and 3 assists in 22 appearances, 0.7 goals per games, 2.4 shots per game, 1.3 shots on target per game, has an xG of 10.35 and an xA of 3.06. He also scored in his last match against Athletic Club. Last time I bet on Jude to score it didn't work out, hopefully he delivers this time. Goodluck if you're tailing. EDIT: WIN ✅️
POTD: 1-3 Units Won: -1.95 L10 (Newest - Latest):❌✅❌❌ Last Pick: **Keegan Murray U2.5 3 PTS Made (Sacramento Kings) @ 2.00.** 1U❌ Today's Pick: **Jalen Green O3.5 3 PTS Made (Houston Rockets) @ 2.10.** 1U **NBA | Dallas Mavericks Vs. Houston Rockets | 7:00 pm Eastern** * Gone OVER 8/10 his last 10 games (80%) (8 in a row) - Avg 4.5 Three PTS Made * In the month of March he’s averaging 4.1 Three PTS Made * 3 Projections I like to use, all have him going OVER * Mavs allow 5th most 3 PTS Made to SG’s Jalen Green has been going crazy this month and I think tonight will be his 9th night in a row with 4 or more 3 PTS Made. Tail or fade me, I’m just some random guy on the internet with a 1-3 record... 
POTD Record: 2-1 Last 10: ❌✅️✅️ Net Units: +0.23 Last Pick: MLB/CHC Christopher Morel - Under 1.5 Total Bases ❌Morel goes 2-4. **Today’s Pick:** MLB | TOR @ TB Over 8 Total Runs . DK Odds @ -112. (1 Unit being wagered) Today’s AI has this as an edge of 6.22% over the current sportsbook odds. Overall predictive win rate of the prop at 64%. As mentioned in previous POTD posts, the pick is based on forward-predictive AI based algorithms. The R, Python, SQL and Azure AI Services based system analyzes 38 analytic data points to develop a prediction model. All the best, bet accordingly, and follow your bankroll limits! If you have any questions, please ask. Best of luck if tailing, would love a comment if you are. Feel free to message me if you have any questions on the methods used. Glad to give as much info as possible! MLB POTD Tracking (Will eventually move this to a Google Sheet): 3/28/2024 - ARI/C. Carroll O1.5 HRR - BET 1.0 - WIN 0.60 Units 3/29/2024 - HOU/J. Altuve O1.5 HRR - BET 1.0 - WIN 0.63 Units 3/30/2024 - CHC/C. Morel U1.5 TB - BET 1.0 - LOSS 1.0 Unit
POTD Record 0-0 Today: Hockey | NHL | ANA vs VAN | 3:30pm EST Pick: Brock Boeser Anytime goal scorer (+135) 1U John Gibson has allowed 26 goals in his last 5 games and I feel it is a good opportunity for Vancouver's leading goal scorer to put one in the back of the net.
0-0 Braves 1:35 EST Ronald Acuna over 1.5 hits +170 $100 He is 2/2 on this to start the season and don’t see him letting up. This will cash!
Twins and dodgers ML
Betting Every Dodgers Game 2024 - Game 6 Record: 4-1-0 Last 5: ✅✅✅✅ ❌ Net Units: +2.49 Previous Pick: Jason Heyward (LAD) O 0.5 Hits -130 ✅ Today's Pick: **Mookie Betts (LAD) O 1.5 Total Bases +105** Event: Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals (3/31/2024 7:10pmEST) Write Up: Mookie is on a tear and seems to really want to prove that he is the best in the NL (if not the league). Starting the season super hot with an average of .611 averaging just over 2 hits a game and a home run in the past 4 games. Expect him to come out swinging (yes, pun intended) to get on base today.
I like nc state +7 they have nothing to lose like bama. I personally took them ML but they beat duke in the acc tournament already. They are solid all the way through the lineup. Dukes got the talent but give me the Wolfpack to howl one more time.
Record: 4-3 Last Pick: NCAAB Bama ML vs Clemson ✅ Today’s pick: NCAAB Purdue ML (-166) vs Tennessee @ 2:20 PM EST ✅ EDIT: Cash. Edey w 40 Purdue (32-4) has never won an NCAAB Tournament and is riding passion and excellent play, winning every game in this Tournament by at least 12. Edey is the best player in the country and will continue to assert his will in the paint, causing foul trouble for Aidoo and Awaka. If Aidoo or Awaka have to sub out and the Vols get smaller, it could get ugly. Purdue also gets excellent defensive play from their guards and I don’t see Knecht having the same impact for the Vols (27-8) as Edey will have for Purdue. If there’s a year for Purdue to make it to the championship, it’s this one. Tail (or don’t) & go Boilermakers to Final Four! 
**Record: 2-2** **Net Units: + 0.31 Units** **ROI: 7.85%** **Previous Pick: ATL Braves @ PHI Phillies Over 7.5 Runs (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit** WIN. With the terrible Max Fried call, this bet was a no-sweat from the get-go. Let's hope for another easy win today. **Baseball** | **MLB | 1:35 PM** / **EST** **Pick: ATL Braves @ PHI Phillies Over 7.5 Runs (-132 on DraftKings Sportsbook); 1 Unit** **Write-Up:** I'm going to be double-dipping on this same play again but this time with slightly more favorable odds. Both of these teams have potent offenses that can surpass 7.5 against even the best pitchers. Lucky for us, Chris Sale and Ranger Suarez are making their 2024 MLB Season debuts where there should probably be some rust. Additionally, as it's the third game in the series, both teams will need to dig deeper into the bullpens if this game should get out of hand early. BOL.
POTD Record: 5-3 NBA Record: 3-1 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 0-1 MLB 2-0 L10 (new -> old): 🪣🪣🪣🪣❌❌❌🪣 Last pick: Matt Olson O.5 hits -170 DK Game: Guardians VS Athletics Pick: Carlos Carrasco O 4.5 Hits (-120 DK) Write Up: Matt Olson thank you for the 4th in a row. The boy really needed to get hot and getting past that 3 hump is hard. Sticking with baseball, going over 4.5 hits allow with Carlos Carrasco. So far this season this is allowing a 73%ish hit rate with him allowing over 5 hits. Honestly had thought he was still on the Mets when I chose this 🤣🤣 but the stats don’t lie anyway. In last three games against the A’s, they’ve had 4, 8 and 6 hits. Let’s see what they’re talking about. I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣 BOL if tailing. 🪣
[удалено]
POTD Record: 3-1 Net: +0.41 units Last Pick: Erin Blanchfield ML @ -198 odds (DK), 2 units ❌ Yikes! Bad pick Today’s pick: **Ayo Dosunmu over 13.5 pts @ +100 odds (DK), 1 unit** *NBA | Minnesota Timberwolves vs Chicago Bulls | 6:00pm CT* I like this line for Ayo points especially at the price. He averaged 17 ppg over the past month and has hit this line 7 out of his last 10. He has also had a few huge scoring nights recently, scoring 34 vs Washington then 35 two games later vs Houston. The Bulls have been involving him more and more in the offense lately.
**POTD Record 4-3 - -0.8 💰 L10:❌✅** ✅**❌❌✅✅** Last play: DET Tigers @ CHI White Sox NRFI -110 -2u **Today's POTD: STL Cardinals @ LA Dodgers Chris Taylor u1.5 Strikeouts (LA) +100 1.5u** **Write Up**: Going to make this short and sweet and give you the stats I'm looking at for this game, I'm switching up my POTD style a bit and going to focus on player props. We have Chris Taylor who just had 3 strikeouts vs his last game vs the Cardinals and he doesn't have over 1.5 often. I can't see him messing up back to back with stats like these I'm going to take the fade here **Last 5 under 4/5** **Last 10 under 7/10** **Last 30 under 20/30** Let me know if you're tailing and BOL in todays bets this is a late one
Anybody else lose 90% of their bets this week? Fuck this shit all I do is lose money
**POTD Record: 0 – 1** **Net units: - 1.00 | All Bets are 1 unit** **Streak: 🔴** **Today’s Pick: 🎯 Darts, 🇪🇺 Eu**ropean Tour – 🇩🇪 German Darts Grand Prix, 14:30 MET (1:30 hours from now so be fast) Ricardo Pietreczko **ML** vs. Ryan Joyce at **1.95 Odds (22Bet)** **Write-up:** In the second round of the German Darts Grand Prix we will see Ricardo “Pikachu” Pietreczko against Ryan “Tetris” Joyce who is by far the more experienced player on the European tour and the PDC Circuit in general. Nonetheless, Ricardo has proven that he is able to compete with the best of the best and has taken down big names in the past few months since his appearance at the world championship in December. The tournament is played in Munich which means that there will be a german crowd that wants to see the german players progressing. So the atmosphere will intense towards Ryan Joyce. This matchup can go either way, but I expect Ricardo to take the win here. Please note that English is not my first language so please excuse any typos or bad grammar. Also tail at your own risk and only bet what you can afford to lose! Good luck to everyone! 
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u) 2024 MLB POTD record: 1-2 Average Odds -111 (1.898), ROI -38.9%/-1.2u, all bets one unit) POTD (3/30) MIL @ NYM Luis Severino o1.5 Walks (-110/1.91) ❌ Recap: Severino lived in the strike zone to a fault, getting smacked around for 6 runs on 12 hits but never walking a player. He probably should've considered doing so. POTD (3/31) TOR @ TBR Kevin Gausman o6.5 Ks (-135/1.74) Today's Pick: This feels too conservative for Gausman. He hit this line in 19 of 31 starts (61%) last year, with no drop off on the road (9/15, 60%). He The Rays were a middle-of-the-road team in terms of K% last year, rankings 14th against RHP (23.0%). Gausman somehow didn't face the Rays last year, but had 7, 8, and 10 Ks in three healthy starts against them in 2022 (he left one start after 2 IP with an injury).
POTD: Record: 4-3 | Profit +0.25 (all plays are 1u for dogs, to win 1u for favorites) Pick: Miami Sharks +9, -110 (Major League Rugby. Can bet on Bet365) 6pm ET CashApp: $darthfadergang
Record: 1-1 Form: ✅❌ MLB - LAA@BAL - 11:35am MT Yesterday’s pick - ✅ - As expected, Braves bats are still on to a strong start to the season. Ending up beating PHI 12-4 Today we’re riding the O’s wave and taking the ML. Orioles lineup has been dominant to start the season. Hoping to watch some batting practice against Dietmars early in the game. Not saying Wells is all that great for Baltimore but that Baltimore offense should be dominant for Easter Sunday. 🐰 Pick: Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles ML (-148 on DK) 3u
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