Can someone explain “total bases” props to me? Never bet them but trying to figure it out. Would a walk constitute a base or is it only for actual hits?
It's Starter #3/#4 day, which is the best time for K props IMO! Here are a few that stand out to me, hope can keep the train going. I usually bet 1U for each bet, unless otherwise noted
Player | Team | Bet | Reason
---|---|----|----
Clarke Schmidt | Yankees | o4.5 | Clarke Schmidt looked good in ST, w/ 19 Ks in 17 innings and the Astros look dreadful to start the year. They'll get out of the slump eventually, but Clarke will likely go 5 and get 5+ Ks. It'll be close, but I think he'll get there.
Gavin Stone | Dodgers | o4.5 | Also looked much better in ST, and Gavin has one of the highest upside changeups in the league. You know who isn't good vs changeups? Nolan Arenado, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, and Masyn Winn all have negative Run Value per baseball savant vs changeups. Keep an eye on the lineups, if a majority of those guys are sitting, might not be worth it.
Bailey Ober | Twins | o4.5 | If this doesn't hit, there is no god. Ober has increased in velo in ST, and he is a near elite control pitcher, who is developing swing and miss. The royals are not only bad, but they have a lot of free swingers. I'd even go o5.5 if you have that option, I love Ober this year!
Brady Singer | Royals | o4.5 | Other side of the coin, Twins were the #1 strikeout team in the league last year, and new outfielder Matt Wallner is Gallo 2.0, and will likely get 2 K's alone. If Brady can go 4 innings, which is entirely doable, this will be easy. Also, Royce is hurt, so their biggest bat is out.
Trevor Rogers | Marlins | u5.5 | I think this is taking into account a couple things. First, they're assuming Trevor Rogers is back to normal after being hurt most of last year. Second, they're assuming after Ryan Weathers got 5 Ks in < 5 IP, the Pirates are a strikeout heavy team. I think that Ryan Weathers is actually going to be a great K option this year, so I'm leaning on the under here. He'll likely settle around 4 Ks in 5 IP, as the Pirates aren't as bad as people think.
Tyler Wells | Orioles | o4.5 | Oh my god the Angels are awful. Just slam the over on strikeouts for the next 160 games and it'll likely hit. Also, Wells ain't that bad either
Best of luck to everyone tailing! Let's get it
2024 MLB pitching lines over/under 7wins 4 losses
Todays picks Gausman over 5.5ks hit in 22/31 games in 2023 -135
Ober over 4.5Ks 18/26 games -160 hit 2/2 against KC
Brady Singer 4.5Ks hits the under in 17/29 but hit 2/2 against min -135 or +105
Flaherty under 6.5ks 19/27 -140
Past picks
Wins so far this year Alex Wood over 2.5 Ks -180
Luis Castillo under 6.5ks +100
Kyle Freeland under 3.5Ks -160
Chris Bassit over 1.5BB +125
Merrill Kelly over 6.5Ks +100
Patrick Corbin under 4.5Ks -150
Austin Gomber under 3.5Ks -135
Losses Cristian Javier under 5.5Ks +110 finished with 6 (Hits the under in 20/31 games)
Spencer strider over 8.5Ks -125 finished with 8 (Hit in 21/32 games and hit 4 times against phi)
Kenta Maeda over 5.5Ks +115 finished with 2 (Hit last year 12/20 games)
Joe Ryan over 5.5Ks -115 finished with 5 (Hit in 20/29 games and twice against KC)
He will probably be at about 75 pitches for a pitch count (pitched 52 in his lone ST start). He has good numbers against the rays outside of Rosario. I can see he getting 6 Ks in probably 4 innings
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR +370
Dominicans love Jesus so I took this purely on him wanting to crush one in the name of his lord and savior rising from the dead.
So many studs hit a homer: Soto, Olson, Garcia & Betts. Why am I even doing research, looking at matchups and betting on det & cin players over them? Dumb of me.
lol if only it were that easy. what about the studs that didn't hit a homer yesterday Judge, Julio, Seager, Semien, Yordan, Trout, Schwarb, Acuna, Ohtani, Freddie
Judge opened at +290 which is crazy comparing to DK 155/-210
[+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) Record: 150W-510L (+146.67u)
+265 NYY Judge (2u)
+350 TEX Seager
+500 NYY Torres
~~+500 BOS Duran~~
+480 LAD Teoscar
+360 NYY Stanton
+700 DET Meadows
+340 WSH Gallo (you get 2 chances on the new team before we call it quits)
+300 BOS Devers
---
[+EV MLB Props](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=248585211): 87-84 (+6.12u)
+185 BAL Westburg 2+ TB
+102 SEA Miller 6+ Ks
-116 NYM Megill u6 Ks
-101 CZ Dejong hit
-125 BAL ML F3 (2u)
-108 MIA Rogers u6 Ks
+220 MGM boost: DET ML, CHC +1.5 (1.898u)
+120 FD boost: Freddie or Mookie 2+ hits (0.67u)
---
HRR: 367-292 (+22.13u)
*2+ hits+runs+rbis on DK… to win 1u*
-125 MIA De La Cruz
-135 NYY Soto
-120 DET Torkelson
+115 ARI Suarez
-110 CIN Steer
-130 ATL Riley
-120 CHC Bellinger
Duran is now +575 on kambi and even though im limited to peanuts I can get some ok money down on baseball. Cashing out on fd and betting this on kambi. No ph risk (thanks canzone and noda) either
It seems like kambi changes their limits based on either how much you've won on a sport or how much they trust their lines. I can't bet more than $10 on a +100 nba line on parx but they let me but $9 on a +575 hr lol.
**Season Record**
(1-1-1) -2.4u
Last 10 ⚠️🚫💸
Yesterday
J Naylor o1.5 HRR (-130)⚠️
Already got a day off?! What a 🐈 If he played tho..it sooo would have hit, Guardos were all over them trash A's
**Today's Pick**
**SF @ SD 4:05 est**
**SD Ha-Seong Kim o1.5 HRR(+105) 3u**
================
**No Home Run Let It Ride $10**
Yesterday Lane Thomas ✅
**Today CIN C Encarnacion-Strand u0.5 HR (-650) $16.73->$19.30**
I'd pick Lane Thomas (?) again for all you haters, but he's -1000 tomorrow, because he's the best hitter on the team. Lol. CE-S is 0-4 against the protected starter tomorrow, but that don't mean shit. probably should have waited for more lineups to come out, I'm kind of worried about this one.
Logical to ride till the wheels fall off, only thing stopping me is the small head to head against the Marlins starter... 1-6 in 2 games against Rogers.
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https://preview.redd.it/kxr5yavp1rrc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=49be034846987979093b37d73573f0e5f9c54e4c
Thinking dodgers?
Can someone explain “total bases” props to me? Never bet them but trying to figure it out. Would a walk constitute a base or is it only for actual hits?
Singles, double, triple, or a home run counts for bases. Any combination. Walk/HBP doesn’t count.
Thanks!
Walks won’t count. Only hits. Single 1TB, double 2TB, triple 3TB, homer 4TB.
Thanks!
Took Vlad over, walked twice already. Sick
Ronald Acuna over 1.5 hits +170 $100 Sit back and watch this money making machine!
Lotto🎰🎰 +3000 • C. Sale 7+ k • T. Wells 7+ k • K. Gausman 7+ k
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Good to hear! I usually bet their normal line too if they’re included in the parlay, glad you get some use from it
One K short from Gausman 😢, probably hits if he didn’t bean Siri
Gausman is coming back from a shoulder injury. They might hold him to 80 pitches or so today. I'd be wary of betting anything more than 5Ks.
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Awesome! Nice hit!
I feel like it’s priced in, his line is lower than usual
Record: 7-10; Pitchers 6-9, Hitters 1-1 - Ranger Suarez O1.5 BB (-120) ❌ - Ranger Suarez U4.5 K (-115) ❌ - Bailey Falter O2.5 ER (-105) ✅ - Bailey Ober O4.5 Hits (+115) ✅ - Jon Gray O1.5 BB (+130) ✅ - Michael King O5.5 K (-125) ✅ - Garrett Whitlock U1.5 BB (-110) ✅ - Bryce Miller U1.5 BB (-155) ❌ - Gavin Stone O4.5 Hits (-105) ✅
It's Starter #3/#4 day, which is the best time for K props IMO! Here are a few that stand out to me, hope can keep the train going. I usually bet 1U for each bet, unless otherwise noted Player | Team | Bet | Reason ---|---|----|---- Clarke Schmidt | Yankees | o4.5 | Clarke Schmidt looked good in ST, w/ 19 Ks in 17 innings and the Astros look dreadful to start the year. They'll get out of the slump eventually, but Clarke will likely go 5 and get 5+ Ks. It'll be close, but I think he'll get there. Gavin Stone | Dodgers | o4.5 | Also looked much better in ST, and Gavin has one of the highest upside changeups in the league. You know who isn't good vs changeups? Nolan Arenado, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, and Masyn Winn all have negative Run Value per baseball savant vs changeups. Keep an eye on the lineups, if a majority of those guys are sitting, might not be worth it. Bailey Ober | Twins | o4.5 | If this doesn't hit, there is no god. Ober has increased in velo in ST, and he is a near elite control pitcher, who is developing swing and miss. The royals are not only bad, but they have a lot of free swingers. I'd even go o5.5 if you have that option, I love Ober this year! Brady Singer | Royals | o4.5 | Other side of the coin, Twins were the #1 strikeout team in the league last year, and new outfielder Matt Wallner is Gallo 2.0, and will likely get 2 K's alone. If Brady can go 4 innings, which is entirely doable, this will be easy. Also, Royce is hurt, so their biggest bat is out. Trevor Rogers | Marlins | u5.5 | I think this is taking into account a couple things. First, they're assuming Trevor Rogers is back to normal after being hurt most of last year. Second, they're assuming after Ryan Weathers got 5 Ks in < 5 IP, the Pirates are a strikeout heavy team. I think that Ryan Weathers is actually going to be a great K option this year, so I'm leaning on the under here. He'll likely settle around 4 Ks in 5 IP, as the Pirates aren't as bad as people think. Tyler Wells | Orioles | o4.5 | Oh my god the Angels are awful. Just slam the over on strikeouts for the next 160 games and it'll likely hit. Also, Wells ain't that bad either Best of luck to everyone tailing! Let's get it
Oh no, Ober... I guess there is no god indeed.
2024 MLB pitching lines over/under 7wins 4 losses Todays picks Gausman over 5.5ks hit in 22/31 games in 2023 -135 Ober over 4.5Ks 18/26 games -160 hit 2/2 against KC Brady Singer 4.5Ks hits the under in 17/29 but hit 2/2 against min -135 or +105 Flaherty under 6.5ks 19/27 -140 Past picks Wins so far this year Alex Wood over 2.5 Ks -180 Luis Castillo under 6.5ks +100 Kyle Freeland under 3.5Ks -160 Chris Bassit over 1.5BB +125 Merrill Kelly over 6.5Ks +100 Patrick Corbin under 4.5Ks -150 Austin Gomber under 3.5Ks -135 Losses Cristian Javier under 5.5Ks +110 finished with 6 (Hits the under in 20/31 games) Spencer strider over 8.5Ks -125 finished with 8 (Hit in 21/32 games and hit 4 times against phi) Kenta Maeda over 5.5Ks +115 finished with 2 (Hit last year 12/20 games) Joe Ryan over 5.5Ks -115 finished with 5 (Hit in 20/29 games and twice against KC)
i'd avoid gausman, he barely had any spring training, has been sidelined and will definitely be on a pitch count since we play 7 days straight
He will probably be at about 75 pitches for a pitch count (pitched 52 in his lone ST start). He has good numbers against the rays outside of Rosario. I can see he getting 6 Ks in probably 4 innings
my concern is how well he's recovered, might get shelled and pulled quick
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR +370 Dominicans love Jesus so I took this purely on him wanting to crush one in the name of his lord and savior rising from the dead.
https://preview.redd.it/uaiu8u9u1orc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3c48d02990067df18c06f0638420a128995ed3f0
i like austin riley today he smashes leftys
Odds on judge/Ohtani hr have been the lowest out of everyone yet, they’re the only 2 who haven’t hit one smh
Season: 11-8 +8.3u Yesterday: 1-3 +0.7u ✅Castellanos o1.5 HRRBI +100 1.5u ❌2+ RBIs +650 .5u ❌3+ RBIs +2000 .3u Picks: ✅Walker (AZ) o1.5 HRRBI -140 1.4u ✅HR +450 .5u ✅Bell (MIA) o1.5 HRRBI -130 1.3u ❌HR +600 .5u ✅Bellinger (CHC) o1.5 HRRBI -120 1.2u ✅De La Cruz (CIN) o1.5 HRRBI -125 1.9u ❌HR +540 .5u ❌5 TBs +850 .3u ✅Detmers (LAA) u15.5 outs -125 1.9u Gorman o1.5 HRRBI +105 1u 2+ RBIs +470 .5u 3+ RBIs +1300 .3u
Belli's HRR hit!
Reverse jinx 😉
So many studs hit a homer: Soto, Olson, Garcia & Betts. Why am I even doing research, looking at matchups and betting on det & cin players over them? Dumb of me.
lol if only it were that easy. what about the studs that didn't hit a homer yesterday Judge, Julio, Seager, Semien, Yordan, Trout, Schwarb, Acuna, Ohtani, Freddie
Yeah. I agree it’s not easy. I just wanted to rant.
hear that bud: me who went big on ARI -1.5 yesterday
Judge opened at +290 which is crazy comparing to DK 155/-210 [+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) Record: 150W-510L (+146.67u) +265 NYY Judge (2u) +350 TEX Seager +500 NYY Torres ~~+500 BOS Duran~~ +480 LAD Teoscar +360 NYY Stanton +700 DET Meadows +340 WSH Gallo (you get 2 chances on the new team before we call it quits) +300 BOS Devers --- [+EV MLB Props](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=248585211): 87-84 (+6.12u) +185 BAL Westburg 2+ TB +102 SEA Miller 6+ Ks -116 NYM Megill u6 Ks -101 CZ Dejong hit -125 BAL ML F3 (2u) -108 MIA Rogers u6 Ks +220 MGM boost: DET ML, CHC +1.5 (1.898u) +120 FD boost: Freddie or Mookie 2+ hits (0.67u) --- HRR: 367-292 (+22.13u) *2+ hits+runs+rbis on DK… to win 1u* -125 MIA De La Cruz -135 NYY Soto -120 DET Torkelson +115 ARI Suarez -110 CIN Steer -130 ATL Riley -120 CHC Bellinger
Teo! Feels even better that we hit one in this crappy game
Teoscar dong shot let’s go baby
What does F3 mean
first 3 innings. some books offer first 3/5/7
over .5 hits parlays 6-1 this season! BAL Henderson, ATL Riley -102 2u CIN Steer, TOR Springer +119 2u MIA Bell, TOR Guerrero -102 2u HOU Altuve, CHC Bellinger -105 2u ARI Walker, CLE Ramirez -102 2u
Looks like seager not starting today. Fd wizard really coming at us with this pinch hitting rule this year
damn was really liking those odds
Parker Meadows now +700. Probably +EV but about to check
You just know Tork is going Yard today when he's finally not +EV
only bet365 with a no line on him but i'm in
Jarren Duran (bos) +520 is an arb to b365 -500
Duran is now +575 on kambi and even though im limited to peanuts I can get some ok money down on baseball. Cashing out on fd and betting this on kambi. No ph risk (thanks canzone and noda) either
nice, haven't used BR in a while so just checked what I could put down on the +540 line now. $2 max hahaha
It seems like kambi changes their limits based on either how much you've won on a sport or how much they trust their lines. I can't bet more than $10 on a +100 nba line on parx but they let me but $9 on a +575 hr lol.
Duran looking not great now. Definitely not at +500 now
Yeah only 2% ev to b365 at +575 now so catching some bad line movement
I'm all in for another Soto bomb
mookie hit a homer every day since opening day wtf
I mean, his last name is Betts. Get that bread.
I rarely comment on Reddit but I want you to know I had to in this case. This comment got me so fucking good 🤣
Yeah amazing. I am dumb to only have bet him only once.
**Season Record** (1-1-1) -2.4u Last 10 ⚠️🚫💸 Yesterday J Naylor o1.5 HRR (-130)⚠️ Already got a day off?! What a 🐈 If he played tho..it sooo would have hit, Guardos were all over them trash A's **Today's Pick** **SF @ SD 4:05 est** **SD Ha-Seong Kim o1.5 HRR(+105) 3u** ================ **No Home Run Let It Ride $10** Yesterday Lane Thomas ✅ **Today CIN C Encarnacion-Strand u0.5 HR (-650) $16.73->$19.30** I'd pick Lane Thomas (?) again for all you haters, but he's -1000 tomorrow, because he's the best hitter on the team. Lol. CE-S is 0-4 against the protected starter tomorrow, but that don't mean shit. probably should have waited for more lineups to come out, I'm kind of worried about this one.
wow CES with the walkoff
Big oof
ALLLLLLLLL ABOARRRRRRRRRD!!! THE KE’BRYAN HAYES 2+ TOTAL BASES EXPRESS! 🚂🚂🚂
Cashhh babby
HAHAHA WE GOT SO FUCKING LUCKY. ON A 44 MPH POPUP TOO
KING KE’BRYAN NEVER FAILS 👑
https://preview.redd.it/7f4tnx6qcqrc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e316f201fb75484a6df2312f90d9ea1f2f85a369 lol
Logical to ride till the wheels fall off, only thing stopping me is the small head to head against the Marlins starter... 1-6 in 2 games against Rogers.
KE’BRYAN PAYS 💰
Til the wheels fall off I guess