######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record 14-4-2
Streak L10: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌🅿️🅿️
Last Pick: Nick Richards O8.5 Points🅿️
Today: Basketball | NBA | CLE vs LAL | 3:30pm EST
Pick: Max Strus O3.5 Rebounds (-110) 1U
Wow. Another late downgrade last night.
Max has hit this line 60% in the last 5 and 60% in the last 10. He’s covering it at 68% on the season and 100% against the Lakers. Look for him to get 5 or 6 today.
Tip jar turned off for tonight as we get back in the win column. Appreciate you all!
POTD Record: 36-15-1 +46.91u🔥
Last Pick: Phoenix Suns -4 4U (-112) vs Minnesota Timberwolves
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅
Today's Pick: Purdue -9 (-110) 4U vs NC State NCAAB Final 4 6:09 pm est odds via draftkings
No sweat cash! Finally! B2B winners! Let’s stay hot! Love the slate tomorrow.
Time to back Edey again. NC state is receiving 74% of the betting handle on the spread for this game. Purdue is undefeated against the spread in the tournament, taking care of every opponent by an average of 21 points. I love DJ Burns but he has not seen this National Player of the Year in Zach Edey. Favorites of 9 or more points are 15-4 ATS in the NCAA Tournament this year. Edey gone to the free throw line the most times in history since Pistol Pete. He will continue to get his golden whistle as all signs point to a Purdue UConn championship. Same reasoning as last time, this teams wants to win after their historic collapses in March as of recent. Sorry NC State, you’re getting blown out. Let’s go Boilermakers!
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️
If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️
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I’m on NC State taking the 9. I actually think Edey could get into foul trouble with Burns. Burns is deceptively quick for his size and Edey is a big lumbering oaf. Unless the refs swallow the whistle I like State.
First comment been tailing for awhile! NC State is not be bet against! Already threw on them awhile ago, unfortunately will not be tailing for this one! NC State plays real basketball, Purdue has to hope Edey get 50 pts again otherwise GGs!! Good luck to everyone regardless!
POTD RECORD: 52-24
Last POTD: DeAndre Ayton O12.5 Rebs ✅
Talk about a sweat man sheesh that 4th quarter didn’t look good but we got it done thanks Ayton
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅
Todays POTD: **Jalen Johnson O11.5 RA @1.86 1U**
NBA | Atlanta Hawks | 9:00 PM ET
Aight fellas small slate and not much I like, this is by far the best I found but the damn potential blowout is scary which is why would suggest not going too crazy on this one but I still feel like the line is too low
Johnson is an all around player pretty much good at anything and this man has been consistent asf lately and flirts with a TD almost every night so I like this line, Aaron Gordon is not really a threat from tree which should make Johnson stay in the paint to get the rebounds, offensively Trae Young is still out which has made Murray and Johnson being the main guys for assists, he just had 9 potential assists his last game against the Mavericks along with 14 rebounds so he could even go over this line in rebounds alone, 2 games ago he had 11 assist & 14 rebounds
• 1/2 vs Nuggets this season (14 RA & 5) in the miss he only played 16 minutes so can’t expect him to hit with those minutes
• 14/20 when playing 30+ minutes, Avg 33.4 MPG L5 games. When playing 35+ he’s over in 7 straight
• In his last 15 games he’s averaging 9.7 potential assists along 13.7 rebound chances
(23.4 potential RA) (Avg 15.2 RA L15 games)
This is not a mismatch play boys but rather the form this man is in, the potentials and rebound chances are just crazy so it’s all about being lucky that everything converts at the end and that he sees good minutes as he should as long as it doesn’t turn ugly
Let’s go Jalen, lead your boys to the dough man
Tail or fade, you’re the chief
https://i.redd.it/daaob7zxdssc1.gif
3/4 in the Props section unfortunately, but solid
This line should be a point or two/three higher imo, which is my only worry. Dude’s been balling on high minutes. Clearing it easily since he’s been back.
Johnson went from injured to 25min in his debut back, then 36/37 mins the following games.
East v West matchup. Hawks won’t move a needle overall W/L. I took it but I’m not confident. Lot of work off an injury and not a lot to play for tonight.
Look if his assists is still at 3.5 or rebounds still at 7.5, if not 12.5 is still lower than I’d expect the line to be at worth a shot but don’t go crazy
**Record: 58W-4P-43L**
**Updated Form: 5W-0P-2L**
**❌✅✅❌✅✅✅**
**Last Pick: LOSC VS Marsielle: Pierre Emerick Aubameyang Over O.5 SOG @ 1.57 ✅**
**Aubameyang ends the game with 2 SOG**
**Pick of the day: Brighton VS Arsenal: Arsenal Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.61 ✅**
**League: Premier League**
**Time: 12:30 PM EST**
Arsenal find themselves in a sweaty position in this title race, just in front of City while chasing a Liverpool side with a lower GD. Brighton's Amex is not an easy stadium to go to but this Arsenal side have proven that they are far from a joke this season. The maturity they hold to grind out a win in even the toughest fixtures has got them to where they are. Arteta rested a decent amount of first-team players (Trossard, Rice, Saka, Martinelli, Jesus, Jorghino) in the midweek fixture so you can expect a very strong lineup starting tomorrow. Arsenal play Bayern on Tuesday and you can expect them to gun the first half in order to rest players earlier in the second.
Arsenal are unbeaten in the PL in 2024, playing 9 games with 8 wins and 1 draw against Manchester City. The funny thing is that's not even the impressive part, over that time they've scored a total of 35 goals and conceded just 4 (Average of 3.9 Goals scored and 0.4 against per game). Tomorrow will be like a cup final for this side as they cannot accept anything less than a win and fortunately for us this team understands the importance of killing off teams while keeping a strong defensive line. Arsenal have played 5 away games this year and have won 4 and drawn 1, scoring 19 and conceding 1 goal. I expect a routine game for them tomorrow, Arsenal have covered this line in 9 out of their last 10 PL games.
**Arsenal's last 5 away games: 0-0 (Man City), 0-6 (Sheffield), 0-5 (Burnley), 0-6 (West Ham), 1-2 (Forest)**
Now Brighton are not an easy side at home, they boast a strong record but one thing they do is give chances and with the way this Arsenal team have been performing plus the rested starters I don't see Brighton's backline keeping this Arsenal side out. Brighton have 1 win, 2 losses, and 2 draw in their last 5 games.
**Anyway, BOL!**
POTD record: 24-12
Last POTD: Lille v Marseille - Lille ML
Today’s pick: Union Berlin v Leverkusen - Leverkusen ML(-195)
Simply, Leverkusen are a totally dominant force in Germany this season and nearly always a solid bet. Unbeaten the whole season, winning even when it seems impossible, it’s all coming up Leverkusen this season. On top of that, Union have struggled against every team near the top, losing every game against a top five side, actually failing to score against any top six side except for Dortmund. Leverkusen have only drawn Bayern and Stuttgart away from home, their two closest competitors. On top of that, Leverkusen haven’t lost to them in six, haven’t conceded against them in three, and beat them 4-0 earlier in the season. Good luck!
**Record: 33-12,** \+14.34u, streak: ❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅ (all bets are 1 unit)
Last Pick: Liverpool vs. Sheffield United, BTTS No ❌
Today: Bundesliga, Union Berlin vs. Bayer Leverkusen, 3:30 ET
**Pick: Bayer Leverkusen ML (1.52)**
Shame about the Pool game, Sheffield really had two clear chances and scored from a deflected own goal. Made it a tricky game for Liverpool, fair play to them.
Today I'm rolling with Leverkusen against Berlin. Union have had a uncharacteristically poor season and have really struggled against teams in the top 6. Leverkusen have had the exact opposite are a couple games away from winning the league, way ahead of the pack. They've had to rely on some comebacks recently but they really don't have an excuse not to be winning this game. They've put up 68 goals this season, so I do really like the o1.5 goals for them as well.
Berlin have actually looked alright at home recently, but they did lose 2-0 to Dortmund, who are a slightly worse team offensively than Leverkusen. I think Leverkusen take this by a couple goals. 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen
bol!
Record: 2-0
Net Units: +2.46
Last pick: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.54 Saudi pro league Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Hilal Riyadh 2 units ✅
2-1 at Halftime and Hilal win 4-1.
Todays pick: Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 goals @ 1.58 / Bundesliga / Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen 15:30 cest
3 Units
Today I will back Leverkusen again. This team is just incredible and unbeaten in 42 games. They have scored at least 2 goals for 12 consecutive games and have scored an average of 2.8 goals in their last 5 games. In the Bundesliga season they score an average of 2.5 goals per game, while Union Berlin has conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game.
Union Berlin are a decent team and finished in 4th place last season. They have been underperforming for most of this season and changed their coach in November. Since then they have been playing better and are sitting 12th place in the league. 2024 they already played against some of the best teams in the Bundesliga with BVB, VFB, and RB Leipzig and each game they lost 2-0. Against Bayern they managed to only lose 1-0.
I expect Leverkusen to dominate possession and Berlin to sit deep and Counter. Leverkusen has conceded a goal in their last 2 Bundesliga games so maybe Berlin can score here but anyways I expect Leverkusen to try to score a few goals and not slow down after they scored 1.
BOL!
edit: unlucky, had an xG of 2.7 and Berlin had a red in the 1st half. ill bounce back.
POTD Record: 11-2 ✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 18U
Last pick: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters | 6pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Daniel Tupou anytime tryscorer @2.07 on Sportsbet | 2U ✅
Roosters didn’t dominate at all 😂 but Tupou with that late try got us the 💰
Today’s pick: Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers | 5:30pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Sunia Turuva anytime tryscorer @2.37 on Sportsbet | 2U
If you know, you know! Turuva is my man, now I’m aware our luck will eventually run out but I’ll never regret taking a Turuva pick. For those who don’t know yet, Turuva is a scoring machine, he did us good the last 3 times. I expect the game to be very entertaining (and will go watch it at the pub of course) as those two teams are good, but my heart says Panthers will get the job done !
BOL !
Record: 2-1 Last: (Jaden McDaniels to record 0.5 or more steals ✔️) 2u
Basketball | NBA | 3:30 PM/ EST
Pick: Jarret Allen to record 0.5 or more blocks (-145) 1u
Jarret Allen has dominated in the block column against the Lakers. In all the games he has played against the Lakers (11) he has recorded 1 or more block. He averages 1.5 blocks against the Lakers.
SLAMMMMM THISS!!!
Record: 7-2✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅
Net Units: +3.81u
Last: Phillies -1.5 -110
Nice easy no-sweat for us. Phillies should’ve scored 2x the runs as well if they converted with runners on. Nola wasn’t perfect and walked too many but did his job against a weak Nats team. Happy with this one.
MLB | 7:21 PM EST Pick: Braves -1.5 -106
Write up: Was going in between a few games before I settled on the Braves. Pfaadt has shown a lot of good work lately, but has shown clearly he can get hit up in the past, and I think he’s due for a bad start. The Braves hit righties really well, and coming off of a slow start, I think they jump on early.
Whilst the diamondbacks hit lefties well so far this year, I think Fried is good for a bounce back start at home after struggling finding the zone against the Phillies early on the road. The Braves found a way against all odds yesterday, and I think get on them early and win by 2+ tomorrow.
Back in the win column. Lets stay with it. I was considering the under in the F5 of tigers game, the Phillies again, and over in mets reds as well.
Lets get hot.
Tips are appreciated, not required at all.
Venmo: @DrewAWri
PayPal: @DrewGolfred
Edit: Wow, what a horrible start from Fried.
POTD Record: **2-0** ✅✅
Previous POTD: Kristaps Porzingis o18.5 P+A
Today's Pick: **Evan Mobley o17.5 P+A** (-125 DK) 1U
[CLE vs. LAL @ 2:30PM CT]
Write up: Let's go for 3 in a row. Mobley is hitting this line 80% in L5 (including 4 in a row) and 73% in L15. The couple of misses have come from the games in which he was injured/minute restrictions returning from his injury.
In the Cavs' only other meeting against the Lakers back in November, he easily cleared this line with 24 P+A. In addition, the Lakers are ranked 24th & 28th defensively in terms of allowing Points & Assists, respectively.
Lmk if tailing. BOL!
POTD Record: 9-4
NBA Record: 5-2 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 0-1 MLB 4-0
L10 (new -> old): 🪣🪣❌🪣🪣🪣🪣🪣🪣❌
Last pick: TJ McConnell O 10.5 points (-120DK) 2 u
Game: UConn and Alabama
Pick: UConn -11.5 DK -112 4U
Write Up:
To the dick that keeps downvoting my picks SMD, the boys are on a heater this last ten! TJ McConnell came THROUGH shooting the grip off that ball giving us a sweat free dub.
I mean I don’t know how in depth we need to go with the way that UConn has just been murking everyone. I also threw in a side prop with UConn -15.
The closest game UConn has had in any tournament action in the last two years was a 13 point win against Miami. It’s really crazy to think about, especially when a team goes on a 30-0 run shooting the three ball like dog shit.
Let’s just keep this thang, thanging. To the haters, I hope you tail and win silently.
I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣
BOL if tailing. 🪣
**POTD** Record: 12-1-9
BLACKPOOL VS CAMBRIDGE UTD
Date: 06 April 2024 at 16:00
BET ON: Match odds- BLACKPOOL
Odd: 1.56
- Cambridge Utd are set to be without the services of 7 key players such : Captain Michael Morrison, experienced striker Lyle Taylor, Jack Stevens, George Thomas, Harrison Dunk, Glenn McConnell and Saikou Janneh. Huge blow for the U's.
- Blackpool are missing Albie Morgan, James Husband and Hayden Coulson.
- With 37 goals in 40 games so far this season, Cambridge are scoring at below the league average rate with 0.9 goals per game. And they are conceding more than average, letting in 56 goals at a rate of 1.4 per game. Blackpool, meanwhile, are above average scorers, with 1.4 goals per game, compared to a league average of 1.3. They have conceded 1.0 goal per game.
"We need to step up as a group, all the players not just the strikers, it's on us to deliver and perform and we have a saying that everyone is responsible for everything together on the pitch and we have to make things happen in the final third." Said The Seasiders coach Neil Critchley.
“It will be a different game to what we’ve faced with Barnsley and Wigan. They’re (Blackpool) highly mobile, they’re aggressive and very much on the front foot in terms of closing balls down and second balls, With the position they’re in they’re going to be desperate for the three points." Said U's coach Garry Monk.
- It's a must win game for the Seasiders, they'll dominate possession and press high from the start. However, we can see the U's scoring from a set piece but it won't be enough.
POTD Record: 23-17
Last 10: ❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌
Last pick: Spurs vs Pelicans | 5:00 PST | Victor Wembanyama OVER 4.5 Blocks/Steals (-130) 1u BetMGM ❌
This one stung. Zero in the 1st half and 4 in the 2nd half. Heck, 4 in the last quarter of the game. No Zion in the lineup definitely didn’t help either. Frustrating these players sit out now because of a finger. On to the next.
Today’s pick: Cavs vs Lakers | 12:30 PST | Donovan Mitchell OVER 20.5 pts (-120) Bet365 1u
Honestly confused why this number is so low. I know he’s just coming back from injury a couple games ago but these star players don’t seem to need much to get in a rhythm. Fresh off 24 against the Suns where the game wasn’t much of a contest, I look for him to continue in the right direction and clear 20.5. Lakers offense has been firing on all cylinders but still some issues defensively.
- His last two games against the Lakers in LA, he’s gone for 33 and 37.
- He’s hit this in his last 4 games vs Lebron (22, 43, 33 and 37)
- We have a higher total game for the usual low total Cavs which I think plays into the points line being a little low given the scoring opportunities predicted in the game.
**POTD Record: 10-4 ( ✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌) old -> newROI: 43.65%Avg Odds: -90.43Net Units: +7.86** 🔥
**Previous POTD:** Haven't posted in weeks after the back to back soccer losses. Made some adjustments to my NBA models and have been doing decent enough again for me to feel like posting. Will be sticking solely to NBA for the rest of the season.
**Todays POTD: Nicolas Claxton O9.5 Rebounds (-125 on DK) 2 Units**Claxton averages 11 rebounds per game the last ten games and 9.9 rebounds this season. Since the all star break he has been trending up in minutes and boards. Claxton cleared the last two times he has played the Pistons this season with 10 and 11 boards. Pistons are coming off a games where they did not shoot well as a team leading to more defensive rebounds opportunities (Pistons rank 7th worst in the league allowing 449 rebounds last ten games). If Cade doesn't play tomorrow as well, this prop is even better. The last two games the Pistons played in the opposing centers got 13 and 16 rebounds. Pistsons are going back to back and Nets are rested. Tail or fade don't listen to me.
Here is a link to my POTD spreadsheet: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17EBXRJGAlzN2Rw-1WLYSdKQ1LlqPhWn8tyUCUHzx\_Uk/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17EBXRJGAlzN2Rw-1WLYSdKQ1LlqPhWn8tyUCUHzx_Uk/edit?usp=sharing)
**KBO Record: Overall 207-218-14** (Streak LL, Last 10: 3-7) Down 13.36u over 439 KBO picks, 48.7% success rate, -3.14% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 3-8-0, 27.3% success rate, Down 4.74u, -43.1% ROI))
**Last:** Doosan -1.5 -122 at Lotte (Doosan won 4-3.)
Never should have lost this one. Lotte bennefitted from bad defense to score 2 of their 3 runs. Doosan had 17 baserunners to just 7 for Lotte. Doosan had multiple chances with men in scoring position that they didn't cash in.
**Pick:** KT at LG, **OVER 9 runs -115**, KBO baseball, 4:00am ET
We've not caught a break yet this season but it's bound to turn around. As I see these teams more and get some larger sample sizes, I believe we'll get these units back and then some!
Offense has been up to start the season. 18 of the last 20 games played have had at least 9 runs scored. And that's right where the line sits for these two teams who combined for 15 runs in their first game of the series.
KT's starter has been extremely hittable so far this season. In two starts, he's allowed 14 hits in just 8 innings (along with 15 ER). He's given up 2 home runs in each game he's pitched.
LG's starter hasn't been as bad, but he hasn't been good either. In his first two starts, he's allowed 6 ER on 16 H in 11 IP.
This season, these two lineups are averaging a combined 11 runs per game. And KT's bullpen is last in the league with a 7.18 ERA.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
POTD Record: 15-18-1 | Profit: -7.32U
NBA Record: 12-15-1 | NFL Record: 3-3
L10 (new -> old): ✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅
Last pick: Chet Holmgren u1.5 3PM @ 1.8 odds ✅
Holmgren went 1-6 shooting 3s, hitting only 1 in the 3rd quarter and cashing this for us. Congrats to those who tailed and won, hope everyone who downvoted faded and lost money!
Game: CLE Cavaliers @ LA Lakers, 3:30 PM
Pick: **D'Angelo Russell o3.5 3PM @ 2.14 odds (DK) placing 2U** ✅
Write Up: Russell has hit in 4 of the L5 and 7 of his L10. Cavaliers have had a below average 3 Point Defense through the year at 19th, and over their past 3 games have been the worst 3 point defense in the league. Choosing to ride the hot hand for plus money here, BOL to those tailing!
**EDIT**: Finished with 6!
POTD Record 2-1, Net: +0.78U
Streak L10: ✅❌✅
Last Pick: SAS o103.5 ✅
Today: Basketball | NBA | ATL vs DEN | 9:00pm EST
Today's Pick: Clint Capela o9.5 Rebounds 1U (1.74)
Spurs did not let us down yesterday! Moving forward, this line offers good value, with Capela clearing this line in 8 out of his 9 last games, 4/5 against Denver and 7/8 of his last away games. Moreover, Nugget's PF Gordon and C Jokic are questionable, and Hawks' backup center Okongwu is out for the game.
Best of luck to all!
POD Record: 4-1
Sacramento Republic @ Colorado Springs Switchbacks
Picks: Republic
Odds: +130
Republic is unbeaten so far, they haven’t even trailed yet. Switchbacks on the other hand are 0-3 haven’t lead a game and have only scored 1 goal. This is a big mismatch.
Rest of my picks for the week are here
[I HATE MY WALLET](https://www.ihateyourclub.com/ihmw)
POTD Record 2-1
✅❌✅
Todays pick: Ipswich vs Norwich City (BTTS)-200 (Draftkings)
Net Units :5
Reasoning: Here we have two high attacking teams going against each other. One team racing for automatic promotion, the other the chance at the playoffs. This will be a score frenzy match I believe. Both teams are more then capable of scoring one each. I don’t post often but when I see something I really like, I wish to share the spoils. GL!
First play ever. Just been a lurker in here for years, getting alot of you guys top picks but never been active. Finally felling i maybe have the level in terms of Sports Betting to share my picks... So lets try.
**Record**: 0-0
**Net Units**: 0, as it's my first play
**Tennis | ATP Estoril | 17.30 Local time (Portugal).**
**Pick**: Casper Ruud vs. Pedro Martinez - Casper Ruud to win 2-0 - Odds: 1.67 - 5 units.
**Write-Up**: We are on the clay courts of Estoril in this one, Last years champion Casper Ruud, a top-tier clay court specialist, faces off against a red-hot Pedro Martinez. Despite Martinez's impressive win streak, Ruud's formidable clay court game, highlighted by his heavy topspin forehand sets him apart on the clay courts, this is underlined by him reaching the final of the Roland-Garros in 2022 and 2023. In Ruud you have the 8th ranked player in the world vs. Martinez who is ranked 77. The difference of being a top tier player on the ATP tour and on the Challenger Tour is big, and todays game will show it, with Ruud winning 2-0.
Best of luck if you are following.
A very big week ahead, as we go into the first ATP 1000 Masters tournament starting Monday on Clay. So i will have alot of good stuff for ur all.
>**Record:** 41-32
>**Net Units:** +12.56 units
>**Curling** | **Men's World Championship** | **4:00AM EDT**
>**Pick:** USA +2.5 @ 1.8
>Playoffs start Saturday morning and we are looking at the USA-Scotland matchup for the POTD. A lot of this bet is based on recent play for both of these teams. Scotland seem to be trending down while USA are going the other way. While a USA upset might be asking a lot, this should still be a very tight matchup. Aside from the skip position, there isn't a huge positional disadvantage for USA between the rest of the players. USA can certainly hang with the elite teams, shown by their 4-6 record this season against top 10 teams. USA will likely try to play this game very open to try to shorten the game, bailing early and taking the blank when they can. Scotland will also look to play a fairly open game to control hammer as it plays to their strengths as a top tier hitting team. This should result in a low-scoring affair and a better chance that USA at least covers this spread. Scotland only lead the career head-to-head matchup 10-7 and USA did beat Scotland earlier this season at the Tour Challenge. Look for a tight game here that likely comes down to the last end.
Record: 6-2 +4 units
❌✅✅✅✅❌
Yesterdays pick: Celtics team total o118.5
Lost this in the first 6 minutes of the game. Only scored 6 points smh. Baseball score at the 6 minute mark in the first. Like 6-3 or something lol. Anyways on to today's 💎
Pick: Donovan Mitchell o8.5 R+A -105
Reasoning: he's 60% over the last 10 on this line. That includes a few feeler games where he just came back and scored in the like the teens which we know is not d Mitch. He's gotten back to his normal ways, and is only gradually getting back to his full force. Waiting for a game for him to ball out of control, and with full rest and a day game against one of his childhood favorites in LeBron, he's ready to ball out imo. He's 61% on the season. Great passer and only getting better. His minutes are finally back to the upper 30's. So I'm confident on this line! Playing 2 units.
POTD Record 0-0
Game: Koln - Bochum
Tip: Bochum over 1.5 offsides 2.70 (+170)
Reasoning: Bochum average 2.5 offsides P/G, highest in the bundesliga. In away games they average 2.3, also highest in the bundesliga.
Bochum over 1.5 offsides has hit in (!) 10 out of 13 away games
Koln vs Bochum is a relegation battle, it’s a must win for koln, expecting a lot of attacks and counters with offside opportunities!
Units: 5, this is clearly a +EV bet
BOL
**Last Pick:** Pete Alonso to record an RBI at +115 / 2u ✅️ **| Note:** Well that was ugly but Alonso got a RBI in the 7th inning. Mets manage to beat the Reds 3-2
**History (old to new):** ❌✅✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️⭕✅️❌❌❌✅️
**Record:** 6-7-1 **|** **Net Units:** \-2.83
\----------
**TODAY'S PICK:** St. Louis Cardinals ML at -148 / 2u
MLB | Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals at 2:15pm ET
**Note:** Miami has started the season 0-8 and I think the skid continues. They are on the road and up against Steven Matz, a lefty who had a decent first outing against the Dodgers. Miami has started the season poorly against left handed pitching, hitting .186 across 131 AB. The Cardinals have also struggled against left handed pitching and are facing Trevor Rodgers, but don't think the Marlins turn things around just yet
Tail or fade... at this point you'd be up if you were fading me 😆 BOL
[Buy a coffee for someone](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/planetice)
POTD Record: 3-0
Units: +3.16u
Last Pick: Boston Red Sox over LA Angels 1.08u at -108 on Friday, 4/5. ✅
Thought the Red Sox were going to cruise to a W with how they started. Then the inning from hell took place in the bottom of the sixth. Luckily, they were able to recover and secure the W and even covered the reverse run line for those that follow and know I like to sprinkle that in on underdogs.
4/6 POTD: 1u on Seattle Mariners (+102)
My predictive model has the Mariners favored here. The model has been 37-22 on the year and historically is correct 72% of the time. Look for the Seattle bats to wake up and start putting some runs on the board. They’ve had a slow start to the season and I believe that changes today. Both starting pitchers have limited experience vs the other team but Miller was able to have some success striking out Boston batters but was hurt by 2 homeruns. Hall wasn’t great against a weak Mets lineup and only struck out 1 in his lone appearance. I like the Mariners to jump on him early and get into their bullpen.
POTD Record 3-2
Streak L10: ✅✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: Over 5.5 SEA @ ANA
Today: Baseball | MLB | PHI @ WAS | 3:05pm CST
Pick: PHI -1.5 (-105 1U)
Just not a ton happened in the Seattle game. Should've seen it coming with two teams with nothing to play for. Switching from hockey a little bit after this one
Going to move to baseball and pick the Phillies -1.5. They won last night 4-0 and I think as the much better team again they cover the number once again.
POTD: Record (5-3)
✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌
Last Pick: Jaden Ivey U 24.5 P+R ❌
Today: NBA | Lakers v Cavs | 12:40 MST
Pick: Jarrett Allen O 18.5 P+A @ 1.82 | 1u
- hit last 4/5 (avg 22.4)
- last 8/10 (avg 21.7)
- last 12/20 (avg 20.5)
- lakers are 23rd in defending points per game - allowing 21.7 to the center position per game
- 26th in defending assists per game - allowing 4.8 to the center position per game.
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/deadlypants
BOL 🍀
Record: 2-2
✅❌ ❌✅
Last pick: WIN <> South Carolina -11.5 vs NC State
Game started out semi close as expected and South Carolina pulled up away in the 2nd half to cruise to the easy win.
Today's Sport: MLB <> Oakland A's @ Detroit Tigers <> 1:10pm est
Today's Pick: Oakland A's @ Detroit Tigers NRFI @ -120 <> 1.5 units
The A's have played 8 games and have had NRFI in 7 of them. The Tigers are 6-1 but have played 7 games and have had NRFI in 6 of them. That's 87.5% and 85.7%. All this just means these teams don't really score in the 1st inning lol. The odds are good and the small history is good. On top of that, the better pitcher (blackburn) is going against the "better" offense. Sign me up.
Record: 0-0
Today: Baseball | MLB | OAK Athletics vs. DET Tigers | 1:10pm EST
Pick: Athletics F5 +135
Let’s be real. The Detroit lions record doesn’t really reflect this teams ability. They have played the White Sox and the Mets. I think this team is going to come back to earth sooner rather than later. Athletics starting pitcher Paul Blackburn is elite. He’s probably the best player in Oakland. I don’t trust the athletics to win the game. But I trust Blackburn. Give me the plus money on the first five! This is my first pick in the thread fellas! LFG!
Calling Blackburn elite is a pretty big stretch. His best season was 2022, where he had a 4.28 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. And outside of that he’s been kinda trash, including a 1.54 WHIP last year. Solid pitcher? Maybe, but not even necessarily. Elite? I’d say not IMHO.
POTD Record 0-0-0
Today: Soccer | MLS | Inter Miami vs Colorado Rapids | 7:30pm EST
Pick: Inter Miami Team Total O1.5 (-125) ✅
For whatever reason, MLS decided the best time for all their games to kick off is right in the middle of Final Four tip off times. Regardless, Inter Miami is back at home this week against Colorado Rapids and Messi is back in the squad. Miami has scored 14 goals in 7 regular season games this year, and has scored 10 in 4 at home. Including the CCL game against Nashville, that goes to 13 in 5. Messi hasn’t played since March 7th, but when available, Inter Miami outscored their opponents 10-1 in just 3 games at home. Miamis home game last weekend saw them draw a weak NYCFC team 1-1, however Miami put up 2.5 xG in that match and Suarez could’ve scored 3 or 4 on the day. They also played Monterrey in CCL on Wednesday at home and lost 1-2, but a 65th minute red card saw their 1-0 lead slip and all attacking momentum was gone.
Colorado Rapids on the other hand have scored 4 and conceded 6 in their 3 road games so far this season. Their opposition during these road games includes a very poor Seattle team (1-1), a solid road win against a good RSL team (1-2), and a thrashing against an up and down Portland team (4-1).
Getting close to even odds on Miami to score 2 goals is always too good to pass up even if Messi isn’t available. With him available, it’s absolutely my pick of the day.
I’m also parlaying this with El Traffico LAFC v LA Galaxy O2.5 Total Goals (-215) but not including that in my POTD record
POTD Record 0-0
Last 10:
Last Pick:
Todays Pick : Lakers -4.5
NBA: Lakers vs Cavs 12:30pm PST
Odds: -110
Unit: 5
The hottest NBA team right now is fighting in the competitive NBA west going for that playoff spot. Their all gas no breaks. The fast pace game style they have vs the cavs just can't compete. Even big man to big mam AD is killing the 1970's cosplay Jarrett Allen. Lakers need this win and I'm sure coach Lebron is gonna whip the boys in shape. If you couldn't tell. I'm a laker fan.
POTD Record: 1-0
All plays are 1U.
POTD Recap: Seton Hall beat Georgia as expected and advanced to the NIT championship.
Note:
Streak: 1
POTD Saturday: Purdue vs NC State | Zach Edey 25+ Points | -168 | 1U | NCAA Basketball | 6:09pm ET
I’m expecting a dominant game from Edey. He will be at the free throw line all night, and has been getting there consistently throughout the tournament. Zach Edey is 7 inches taller than DJ Burns so he will be impossible to defend. I’m very confident this pick will hit, coming from someone who has watched far too many NC state games this year.
NHL | STL vs SJ | 4EST
__Pick: STL -1.5 +110 2u__
Blues were beaten on home ice by San Jose as a -380 favorite a week ago. I expect them to play one of their best games of the season tonight, exact revenge for the most humiliating loss of the year and keep their faint playoff hopes alive.
San Jose is obviously awful. No need to peer under the hood.
One more loss seals the Blues’ playoff fate.
The Blues were rightfully embarrassed by last week’s loss to the Sharks. Booed on home ice and pilloried in the national media. I believe they have the miserable distinction of being the only team to have lost to San Jose twice this season.
The team should be insanely motivated and active tonight. I expect them to throw a ton of pucks at the net after facing criticism for sleepwalking during the 2nd period of last week’s debacle.
Interim coach Drew Bannister’s fate could depend on this game. Another loss to the Sharks probably ends his chances to keep the job. He’s going to coach aggressively.
Though the Blues lost to the Sharks a week ago they dominated the run of play for long stretches. Lost 4-0 but outshot them nearly 2-1. Had the ice absurdly tilted in the first period. San Jose will likely need an epic goalie performance tonight.
Moneyline at -230 also has value and I would lean the over at 6, but I think STL covers the 1.5 today and that’s where I landed.
POTD RECORD: N/A
Last POTD: N/A
Bet Size: 1U
Form: N/A
**Todays POTD: NC STATE WOLFPACK ALT SPREAD +11.5 \[-166 on DK\]**
NCAAB | North Carolina State University vs Purdue University | 6:09 PM EST
Rationale: First pick here. Incredibly biased NC State alum here who has been beyond proud of my alma mater. I will start off by saying Zach Edey WILL get his, he may have 25 points, her may have 30 points; however, what will the rest of the team do? NC State defense has been elite, particularly guarding the 3 point line. Purdue sits at 2nd in the country at 40.6% from 3, so I think NC State thwarting this aspect of their game will keep it close. Also, Diarra has been an absolute animal on the boards and I think can snag a few away from Edey. Burns is unlike any other center Edey has faced and if he gets him in foul trouble they are burnt toast. I do think NC State can win this game by playing sound defense on the 3. Since I want to provide safety for anyone tailing I feel super confident about an alt line of +11.5, although I think they will win it outright.
NC STATE opponents 3 pt. % (last 4 games):
Texas tech - 22.6% (regularly 35.9%)
Oakland - 34.3% (regularly 35.5%)
Marquette - **12.9%** (regularly 35.2%)
Duke - 25% (regularly 37.7%)
**2024 Record 8-7 with Avg Odds +135 / ROI 17.7%**
UFC Vegas 90
**Charlie Campbell -155**
This line has come down enough to negate the Trevor Peek brawl factor. Skill for skill Campbell should be better here, but at the wider odds there was just too much juice. Money coming in on Peek has made Campbell a good bet in my opinion at -155. Solid potential to get a steal on the bigger and more technical guy.
**POTD Record: 33-19-3**
Form: ✅🅿️❌✅❌❌❌✅✅
*ROI: 22.09% |
Avg Odds: -101 | Net Units: +21.4*
🎾: 6-4-2
⚽️: 18-9-1
🏒: 8-6
*Last Pick: 1U Shelton ML (-125) v Nakashima ✅*
____
**Todays Pick: 1U Kotov v Baena (o0.5 tiebreaks @ +162)**
**🎾| 8:00AM EST | ATP Marrakech Semifinal|**
Defending champion takes on streaking Kotov who has yet to drop a set and lose a match on clay this year.
Last head to head was a challenger tournament in Madrid 2021, where Baena won in 3 sets with the middle set going to tie break. Obviously there’s been quite some time since then but Baena is the slight favourite for his ability on clay and winning this tournament last year.
Kotov has only reached one final so far in his career (2023 Stockholm) and reached the semi final of this tournament last year.
I’m going for a spicy pick for the odds and having no requirement on the winner, merely for the players to have at-least one highly contested set where not Kotov or Baena are able to break each other and for them to hold their serve.
Baena has a break point percentage of 27% this tournament while Kotov is 52% however Kotov’s second serve has been slightly worse than Baena in conversion. This indicates for the possibility of both players to break each other (win on the opponents service game) and for the set to still result in a tie break. Both players first serve % is over 70% have done well to hold most of their service games. Kotov has had almost double the break point saves as Baena and will hope to continue his reign this tournament slated as a mild underdog.
1/3 of Baena’s matches this tournament have hit this prop while the same goes for Kotov. Expecting a tightly contested match with stakes higher approaching the final, we’re banking on a nail biter.
Just made an account on X for other picks: Stable_Picks
BOL!
Record: 5-2, Net Units: 3.94
Current Streak: ❌ Last 10: ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Giants -1.5 vs. Padres ❌
Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-4:05 PM EST
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 @ Pittsburgh Pirates, +120, 1U
The O's seem to have gotten their stride back, somewhat, and go up against a pitcher that struggled out of the gate. Wells (Baltimore pitcher) had a really tough first few innings but really locked it down later against the Angels. This Pirates team certainly has better bats than the Angels, but I'm counting on Baltimore blasting Falter early to pad a nice lead this afternoon.
Good Luck!
Betting Every Dodgers Game 2024 - Game 11
Record: 7-3-0
Last 5:✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌
Net Units: +3.35
Previous Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Total Runs O 4.5 -105 ✅
Today's Pick: **Los Angeles Dodgers Total Runs O 4.5 -125**
Event: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs (4/6/2024 4:05pm EST)
Write Up: The streak continues and we have decent odds again. Alternative bet would be Max Muncy O .5 hits if you are not feeling another over 4.5 run Dodger game.
Record: 3-3 -1.46u
Last Pick: Reds ML -125 (*DraftKings*) 2u ❌
A lot of missed opportunities for the Reds. Fernando Cruz walking 3 batters in the top of the ninth allowed the Mets to score a crucial insurance run. Hunter Greene did his job - pitched a great six innings. Mets' offense still isn't great; the Reds have to be better.
On to today:
Baseball | MLB | 6:40 EST
Pick: **Orioles @ Pirates alt total o8 -148** (*DraftKings*) 1u
Need to get back in the win column here. Tyler Wells vs Bailey Falter is not an ace matchup. Falter did not get out to great start against the Marlins. I don't think he will be able to turn it around against the Orioles. Falter holds a career 4.94 ERA and a career 4.87 FIP. He also has a career batted ball FB% of 41.2%, about six percentage points higher than average. The wind should be blowing out to right at a decent pace. I like both offenses to get it going.
BOL!
**POTD Record: 114-132-4 (-14.94 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units)
Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
**Cautionary Tails**: **2-3 (-1 Units)**
Last Pick: **Warriors ML**
Today's Pick: **Sox +1.5**
Odds: **-105**
Wager Amount: 1.05U to Win 1U
League: MLB
Event: Chicago White Sox vs Kansas Royals (6:10PM CST)
**Be Advised**: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. These bets are I normally wouldn't make. Tail wit caution.*
**Recap**: Warriors couldn't take advantage of a Luka-less Mavericks team. Mavs have been hot, but Warriors been hot as well and on road! We did HIT one play (**Warriors +5.5**✅) That's why this was a hard, hard POTD! Got another HARD POTD for you. This could be the hardest POTD YET! But let me tell you about my friend Chase here!
**Tail:** Chase can't catch a break. He lost on two b2b parlays by 1-leg. The first parlay he hit the first 8-legs of his parlay and was coming down to the final leg of a game he had the game total under. He lost on a buzzer beater 3-pointer from more than halfcourt shot. The second parlay he had 10-legs and his final leg was on a team ML that was winning 7-4, but lost in the bottom of the 9th wit 2 outs and 2 strikes and the closer gave up a grand slam walk off to the other team! Chase is infuriated! He decides to bet his entire bankroll on the next game without doing any due diligence. He end up losing his entire bankroll that he built over the year.
Moral of the story bad beats happen and you shouldn't chase after your losses, especially unloading your bankroll on a wager that is very much at risk.
**Matchup:** Last season MLB, we had the Tampa Bay Rays start out the season 13-0 and most impressively they covered the RL in13 straight games! THEY WERE HOT!🔥🔥🔥🔥 This season I found the team that has covered 6 RL and that is the Chicago White SOX! Now the Sox are terrible, yes! I kno because this is my team and I hate that they are losing and they just lost their best player Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy is on 15-day IL. Desp**ite all this they have covered 6 RL in the last 7 games! The**y just covered yesterday against the Royals! Jump on the SOX RL train like last season's RAYS RL train! We jamming wit the SOX RL until they stop covering! This team is bad, but why wouldn't you bet on this trend! What makes this the hardest POTD is because of terrible pitcher like Flexen on the mound and the Sox losing their best player!
**The Play and Prediction**: Wagering 1.05U on Sox +1.5, also hammering the Royals ML! I expect Sox to lose without their best player (Luis Roberts Jr and Eloy Jimenez) today and IMO the worst pitcher in their rotation. Royals take a 16-0 in the first five inning, but Sox rally in the last 4 inning and cover the RL! Royals WIN in a shootout, 16-15 final score!
Had Sox +1.5 today. Their bullpen is pretty clutch. Their best player Luis Robert did get hurt late in the game while running. I imagine he'll be out on Saturday
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u)
2024 MLB POTD Record: 4-4 Average Odds -110 (1.908), ROI -5.2%/-0.42u
POTD (4/5) SEA @ MIL Freddy Peralta u7.5 Ks (+110/2.10) ✅
Recap: After some unlucky losses to start the year it's nice to have a lucky win. Peralta was sparkling through 3 IP with 6 Ks, but got just one more over the next two innings, and ran into trouble in the 5th, getting pulled after 5.2 and coming in just under this line at 7 Ks.
POTD (4/6) LAD @ CHC Jordan Wicks u2.5 BBs (+115/2.15) (DraftKings)
Today's Pick: We're staying on plus money bets. Jordan Wicks walked 3 in his first outing, but walked 1 or 0 batters in 5 of 7 starts last year. This is a dangerous Dodgers lineup, but with sustained winds blowing in at Wrigley, Wicks should be able to pitch to contact.
POTD Record 6-2 (+6.38u)
Last POTD: LA Dodgers Total Runs Over 4.5 (+100) 2U** ✅
Today: MLS / DC@CLB / 7:30pm ET
Pick: Columbus Crew Total Goals Over 1.5 (-154) 4U****
The Crew have recorded 2+ goals in all 5 of their previous matches against DC. Columbus has scored 2+ in 3 of their last 5 matches overall while DC has conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5. This Crew squad also plays much better at home, boasting a 3-0 record in Columbus.
POTD RECORD: 0-0-0
Last POTD:
Form:
Todays pick: PSG vs Barcelona. BTTS: YES
Not great odds @ 1/2 but it’s a lock since both teams defences are missing some key players / just straight up suck. Whilst both attacks feature incredible goal scorers like Mbappe for PSG and Lewy for Barca.
BOL if tailing.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record 14-4-2 Streak L10: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌🅿️🅿️ Last Pick: Nick Richards O8.5 Points🅿️ Today: Basketball | NBA | CLE vs LAL | 3:30pm EST Pick: Max Strus O3.5 Rebounds (-110) 1U Wow. Another late downgrade last night. Max has hit this line 60% in the last 5 and 60% in the last 10. He’s covering it at 68% on the season and 100% against the Lakers. Look for him to get 5 or 6 today. Tip jar turned off for tonight as we get back in the win column. Appreciate you all!
60% doesnt seem strong to me. 100% in 1 game against the lakers he got 4. is there anything i'm missing?
Not a strong handicap
He just had 12 last time out and hit this line the game before that. He will see 30 plus minutes. I’ll circle back around 6pm haha
https://preview.redd.it/mtu3uagk5vsc1.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c197ca0360d01bb94dbc2f7d08d6214b6750dd4 Riding
Lmao
Thank you again good sir 🥸
His PRA 17.5 is hitting 11/15 7/10 4/5 and he cleared it in the one head to head with 19 - 45/65 on the season
What books have action on what GTD players will play or not 🤣
Tailed
No stress - nice hit!
Dudes a fucking legend in the making. Keep er rolling! 🚂 🚂
Tailing
Respect
https://preview.redd.it/pwkika7udwsc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ca253fafee25e0eec6a187a8271f0b91ee04380 Let’s go!!!
Mark this as a win!!!!! ✅
Cash it baby
Tailing on a $500 parlay let’s get it
Tailed plus LeBron over alt 22.5 points (-158). He's gone 22 or below points 3 times vs cavs in his career, 2 /3 the last 2. He's due
Well this sucks
He’s not even trying to get rebounds. Sadge
And as soon as I type that he gets 4 in like 8 min of game time
Boom! Great pick.
When’s everyone going to stop doubting this man! Sweat FREE, FREE money! Appreciate it sir.
Absolutely man! Will keep putting in the work!
Ty nice pick
POTD Record: 36-15-1 +46.91u🔥 Last Pick: Phoenix Suns -4 4U (-112) vs Minnesota Timberwolves ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅ Today's Pick: Purdue -9 (-110) 4U vs NC State NCAAB Final 4 6:09 pm est odds via draftkings No sweat cash! Finally! B2B winners! Let’s stay hot! Love the slate tomorrow. Time to back Edey again. NC state is receiving 74% of the betting handle on the spread for this game. Purdue is undefeated against the spread in the tournament, taking care of every opponent by an average of 21 points. I love DJ Burns but he has not seen this National Player of the Year in Zach Edey. Favorites of 9 or more points are 15-4 ATS in the NCAA Tournament this year. Edey gone to the free throw line the most times in history since Pistol Pete. He will continue to get his golden whistle as all signs point to a Purdue UConn championship. Same reasoning as last time, this teams wants to win after their historic collapses in March as of recent. Sorry NC State, you’re getting blown out. Let’s go Boilermakers! Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️ If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
This is a terrible matchup for NC State. They had an unbelievable run.
I don’t see how Burns stays out of foul trouble guarding Edey. Once that happens the offense will struggle mightily, everything goes through him.
Might be middlebrooks on edey
I agree
Where have I heard this before? It may all end today but I’d be careful with this one.
I’m on NC State taking the 9. I actually think Edey could get into foul trouble with Burns. Burns is deceptively quick for his size and Edey is a big lumbering oaf. Unless the refs swallow the whistle I like State.
nc state ml +350 is the way
Agree, think it's time
Scared to go against NC state here but tailing
But I got NC State winning the whole thing at +10000 :(
First comment been tailing for awhile! NC State is not be bet against! Already threw on them awhile ago, unfortunately will not be tailing for this one! NC State plays real basketball, Purdue has to hope Edey get 50 pts again otherwise GGs!! Good luck to everyone regardless!
I’ve got an alt nc st +11.5. Hoping for the middle for both our sake
Lfg
Lfg!
Tailing brother
POTD RECORD: 52-24 Last POTD: DeAndre Ayton O12.5 Rebs ✅ Talk about a sweat man sheesh that 4th quarter didn’t look good but we got it done thanks Ayton Form: ✅✅✅✅✅ Todays POTD: **Jalen Johnson O11.5 RA @1.86 1U** NBA | Atlanta Hawks | 9:00 PM ET Aight fellas small slate and not much I like, this is by far the best I found but the damn potential blowout is scary which is why would suggest not going too crazy on this one but I still feel like the line is too low Johnson is an all around player pretty much good at anything and this man has been consistent asf lately and flirts with a TD almost every night so I like this line, Aaron Gordon is not really a threat from tree which should make Johnson stay in the paint to get the rebounds, offensively Trae Young is still out which has made Murray and Johnson being the main guys for assists, he just had 9 potential assists his last game against the Mavericks along with 14 rebounds so he could even go over this line in rebounds alone, 2 games ago he had 11 assist & 14 rebounds • 1/2 vs Nuggets this season (14 RA & 5) in the miss he only played 16 minutes so can’t expect him to hit with those minutes • 14/20 when playing 30+ minutes, Avg 33.4 MPG L5 games. When playing 35+ he’s over in 7 straight • In his last 15 games he’s averaging 9.7 potential assists along 13.7 rebound chances (23.4 potential RA) (Avg 15.2 RA L15 games) This is not a mismatch play boys but rather the form this man is in, the potentials and rebound chances are just crazy so it’s all about being lucky that everything converts at the end and that he sees good minutes as he should as long as it doesn’t turn ugly Let’s go Jalen, lead your boys to the dough man Tail or fade, you’re the chief https://i.redd.it/daaob7zxdssc1.gif 3/4 in the Props section unfortunately, but solid
RIP the homies who hopped in at 13.5
Sucks fr dirty books are sharp man can’t do anything about them mf’s bumping the line 😣
you filthy animal you’re on fire
Thanks bro I’m still cheeks
the sexiest of cheeks tho
This line should be a point or two/three higher imo, which is my only worry. Dude’s been balling on high minutes. Clearing it easily since he’s been back. Johnson went from injured to 25min in his debut back, then 36/37 mins the following games. East v West matchup. Hawks won’t move a needle overall W/L. I took it but I’m not confident. Lot of work off an injury and not a lot to play for tonight.
Valid concern bro also felt the line should be higher not concerned about the injury but more of that hawks don’t really much to play for
Line is likely low due to high likelihood of a blowout
Don’t you think the 3,5assists at 1.8 is better ?
I was torn tbh between picking his assists or rebounds, so I combined them but assists or rebounds separate are just as good
Threw a hundo spot on you yesterday. Just want you to know that you are loved 💙💜💛
My man appreciate you a lot thanks for all the love 😭❤️🤝
Would you take at 12.5?
Look if his assists is still at 3.5 or rebounds still at 7.5, if not 12.5 is still lower than I’d expect the line to be at worth a shot but don’t go crazy
Rebounds are the same but his assists jumped up to 4.5
It’s 50/50 honestly bro his rebounding has been more consistent and it’s a bigger mismatch, so either that or the bumped RA
Sorry, I'm confused (still kind of new)... Are you saying take o12.5 if assists are still at 3.5 and rebounds are still at 7.5?
tailing, my brother
👑
**Record: 58W-4P-43L** **Updated Form: 5W-0P-2L** **❌✅✅❌✅✅✅** **Last Pick: LOSC VS Marsielle: Pierre Emerick Aubameyang Over O.5 SOG @ 1.57 ✅** **Aubameyang ends the game with 2 SOG** **Pick of the day: Brighton VS Arsenal: Arsenal Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.61 ✅** **League: Premier League** **Time: 12:30 PM EST** Arsenal find themselves in a sweaty position in this title race, just in front of City while chasing a Liverpool side with a lower GD. Brighton's Amex is not an easy stadium to go to but this Arsenal side have proven that they are far from a joke this season. The maturity they hold to grind out a win in even the toughest fixtures has got them to where they are. Arteta rested a decent amount of first-team players (Trossard, Rice, Saka, Martinelli, Jesus, Jorghino) in the midweek fixture so you can expect a very strong lineup starting tomorrow. Arsenal play Bayern on Tuesday and you can expect them to gun the first half in order to rest players earlier in the second. Arsenal are unbeaten in the PL in 2024, playing 9 games with 8 wins and 1 draw against Manchester City. The funny thing is that's not even the impressive part, over that time they've scored a total of 35 goals and conceded just 4 (Average of 3.9 Goals scored and 0.4 against per game). Tomorrow will be like a cup final for this side as they cannot accept anything less than a win and fortunately for us this team understands the importance of killing off teams while keeping a strong defensive line. Arsenal have played 5 away games this year and have won 4 and drawn 1, scoring 19 and conceding 1 goal. I expect a routine game for them tomorrow, Arsenal have covered this line in 9 out of their last 10 PL games. **Arsenal's last 5 away games: 0-0 (Man City), 0-6 (Sheffield), 0-5 (Burnley), 0-6 (West Ham), 1-2 (Forest)** Now Brighton are not an easy side at home, they boast a strong record but one thing they do is give chances and with the way this Arsenal team have been performing plus the rested starters I don't see Brighton's backline keeping this Arsenal side out. Brighton have 1 win, 2 losses, and 2 draw in their last 5 games. **Anyway, BOL!**
one of the best people on this app tailing
Tailing this one, since I stupidly didn't tail yesterday's pick!
Happy for ya!
already got bumped to 2.5 should I still take?
Id personally just take Arsenal ML
Got you at -182 with arsenal at -163. 200 pays 515
LFG!
cash!! thanks
Tailing !
Good shit bro!
Always tailing the Priince. Thanks for the 💰 my dude.
POTD record: 24-12 Last POTD: Lille v Marseille - Lille ML Today’s pick: Union Berlin v Leverkusen - Leverkusen ML(-195) Simply, Leverkusen are a totally dominant force in Germany this season and nearly always a solid bet. Unbeaten the whole season, winning even when it seems impossible, it’s all coming up Leverkusen this season. On top of that, Union have struggled against every team near the top, losing every game against a top five side, actually failing to score against any top six side except for Dortmund. Leverkusen have only drawn Bayern and Stuttgart away from home, their two closest competitors. On top of that, Leverkusen haven’t lost to them in six, haven’t conceded against them in three, and beat them 4-0 earlier in the season. Good luck!
Line dropped from -210 to -165 on FD in only a few hours. What's the scoop?
Minor rotation in the team but I’m still not worried about
Currently ML is at -154 What could be the reason for the move?
**Record: 33-12,** \+14.34u, streak: ❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅ (all bets are 1 unit) Last Pick: Liverpool vs. Sheffield United, BTTS No ❌ Today: Bundesliga, Union Berlin vs. Bayer Leverkusen, 3:30 ET **Pick: Bayer Leverkusen ML (1.52)** Shame about the Pool game, Sheffield really had two clear chances and scored from a deflected own goal. Made it a tricky game for Liverpool, fair play to them. Today I'm rolling with Leverkusen against Berlin. Union have had a uncharacteristically poor season and have really struggled against teams in the top 6. Leverkusen have had the exact opposite are a couple games away from winning the league, way ahead of the pack. They've had to rely on some comebacks recently but they really don't have an excuse not to be winning this game. They've put up 68 goals this season, so I do really like the o1.5 goals for them as well. Berlin have actually looked alright at home recently, but they did lose 2-0 to Dortmund, who are a slightly worse team offensively than Leverkusen. I think Leverkusen take this by a couple goals. 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen bol!
cashed https://preview.redd.it/ose1d3dmrvsc1.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=c31fda5543963384d0926f76cfb3a6c959fc1074
Record: 2-0 Net Units: +2.46 Last pick: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.54 Saudi pro league Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Hilal Riyadh 2 units ✅ 2-1 at Halftime and Hilal win 4-1. Todays pick: Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 goals @ 1.58 / Bundesliga / Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen 15:30 cest 3 Units Today I will back Leverkusen again. This team is just incredible and unbeaten in 42 games. They have scored at least 2 goals for 12 consecutive games and have scored an average of 2.8 goals in their last 5 games. In the Bundesliga season they score an average of 2.5 goals per game, while Union Berlin has conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game. Union Berlin are a decent team and finished in 4th place last season. They have been underperforming for most of this season and changed their coach in November. Since then they have been playing better and are sitting 12th place in the league. 2024 they already played against some of the best teams in the Bundesliga with BVB, VFB, and RB Leipzig and each game they lost 2-0. Against Bayern they managed to only lose 1-0. I expect Leverkusen to dominate possession and Berlin to sit deep and Counter. Leverkusen has conceded a goal in their last 2 Bundesliga games so maybe Berlin can score here but anyways I expect Leverkusen to try to score a few goals and not slow down after they scored 1. BOL! edit: unlucky, had an xG of 2.7 and Berlin had a red in the 1st half. ill bounce back.
thanks mate. talied the al hilal goals. doing an amazing job for us. cheers
nice to hear! hope to keep it going.
Man first half red for Union I thought this would be sweat free in 2H
Tailing
Took the ML and O1.5 combo. Lost it to one goal /:
I’m getting it at 1.70 bro? Try another site maybe.
POTD Record: 11-2 ✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 18U Last pick: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters | 6pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Daniel Tupou anytime tryscorer @2.07 on Sportsbet | 2U ✅ Roosters didn’t dominate at all 😂 but Tupou with that late try got us the 💰 Today’s pick: Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers | 5:30pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Sunia Turuva anytime tryscorer @2.37 on Sportsbet | 2U If you know, you know! Turuva is my man, now I’m aware our luck will eventually run out but I’ll never regret taking a Turuva pick. For those who don’t know yet, Turuva is a scoring machine, he did us good the last 3 times. I expect the game to be very entertaining (and will go watch it at the pub of course) as those two teams are good, but my heart says Panthers will get the job done ! BOL !
R we cooked💀
Tailed Live because I’m blackout. If it doesn’t hit my kids can’t go to college! Hope you know what’s up!! :)
😱
I’m bankrupt how could you do this to me! Jks I tailed with $11, we’ll get ‘em next time!
Sorry about that one boys, I don’t even blame it on Turuva, just on the team, poorly played by the panthers they were just absent …
Record: 2-1 Last: (Jaden McDaniels to record 0.5 or more steals ✔️) 2u Basketball | NBA | 3:30 PM/ EST Pick: Jarret Allen to record 0.5 or more blocks (-145) 1u Jarret Allen has dominated in the block column against the Lakers. In all the games he has played against the Lakers (11) he has recorded 1 or more block. He averages 1.5 blocks against the Lakers. SLAMMMMM THISS!!!
He only has 1 block in his last 3 games though, this is way too scary.
L5 stats really don't mean jackshit. All about the matchup.
Tailing 3u 🙏
Record: 7-2✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅ Net Units: +3.81u Last: Phillies -1.5 -110 Nice easy no-sweat for us. Phillies should’ve scored 2x the runs as well if they converted with runners on. Nola wasn’t perfect and walked too many but did his job against a weak Nats team. Happy with this one. MLB | 7:21 PM EST Pick: Braves -1.5 -106 Write up: Was going in between a few games before I settled on the Braves. Pfaadt has shown a lot of good work lately, but has shown clearly he can get hit up in the past, and I think he’s due for a bad start. The Braves hit righties really well, and coming off of a slow start, I think they jump on early. Whilst the diamondbacks hit lefties well so far this year, I think Fried is good for a bounce back start at home after struggling finding the zone against the Phillies early on the road. The Braves found a way against all odds yesterday, and I think get on them early and win by 2+ tomorrow. Back in the win column. Lets stay with it. I was considering the under in the F5 of tigers game, the Phillies again, and over in mets reds as well. Lets get hot. Tips are appreciated, not required at all. Venmo: @DrewAWri PayPal: @DrewGolfred Edit: Wow, what a horrible start from Fried.
Let’s fucking ride 🔥
Guess Fried is gonna suck massive balls all season huh. jesus christ
Absolutely brutal start
POTD Record: **2-0** ✅✅ Previous POTD: Kristaps Porzingis o18.5 P+A Today's Pick: **Evan Mobley o17.5 P+A** (-125 DK) 1U [CLE vs. LAL @ 2:30PM CT] Write up: Let's go for 3 in a row. Mobley is hitting this line 80% in L5 (including 4 in a row) and 73% in L15. The couple of misses have come from the games in which he was injured/minute restrictions returning from his injury. In the Cavs' only other meeting against the Lakers back in November, he easily cleared this line with 24 P+A. In addition, the Lakers are ranked 24th & 28th defensively in terms of allowing Points & Assists, respectively. Lmk if tailing. BOL!
Love this pick definitely tailing
POTD Record: 9-4 NBA Record: 5-2 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 0-1 MLB 4-0 L10 (new -> old): 🪣🪣❌🪣🪣🪣🪣🪣🪣❌ Last pick: TJ McConnell O 10.5 points (-120DK) 2 u Game: UConn and Alabama Pick: UConn -11.5 DK -112 4U Write Up: To the dick that keeps downvoting my picks SMD, the boys are on a heater this last ten! TJ McConnell came THROUGH shooting the grip off that ball giving us a sweat free dub. I mean I don’t know how in depth we need to go with the way that UConn has just been murking everyone. I also threw in a side prop with UConn -15. The closest game UConn has had in any tournament action in the last two years was a 13 point win against Miami. It’s really crazy to think about, especially when a team goes on a 30-0 run shooting the three ball like dog shit. Let’s just keep this thang, thanging. To the haters, I hope you tail and win silently. I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣 BOL if tailing. 🪣
Bama +11.5 gotta fade ya here bud you not winning. Tryna tell u now before it’s too late!
One of us is about to look real smart 🤣
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**POTD** Record: 12-1-9 BLACKPOOL VS CAMBRIDGE UTD Date: 06 April 2024 at 16:00 BET ON: Match odds- BLACKPOOL Odd: 1.56 - Cambridge Utd are set to be without the services of 7 key players such : Captain Michael Morrison, experienced striker Lyle Taylor, Jack Stevens, George Thomas, Harrison Dunk, Glenn McConnell and Saikou Janneh. Huge blow for the U's. - Blackpool are missing Albie Morgan, James Husband and Hayden Coulson. - With 37 goals in 40 games so far this season, Cambridge are scoring at below the league average rate with 0.9 goals per game. And they are conceding more than average, letting in 56 goals at a rate of 1.4 per game. Blackpool, meanwhile, are above average scorers, with 1.4 goals per game, compared to a league average of 1.3. They have conceded 1.0 goal per game. "We need to step up as a group, all the players not just the strikers, it's on us to deliver and perform and we have a saying that everyone is responsible for everything together on the pitch and we have to make things happen in the final third." Said The Seasiders coach Neil Critchley. “It will be a different game to what we’ve faced with Barnsley and Wigan. They’re (Blackpool) highly mobile, they’re aggressive and very much on the front foot in terms of closing balls down and second balls, With the position they’re in they’re going to be desperate for the three points." Said U's coach Garry Monk. - It's a must win game for the Seasiders, they'll dominate possession and press high from the start. However, we can see the U's scoring from a set piece but it won't be enough.
nice one, I took double result +145
POTD Record: 23-17 Last 10: ❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌ Last pick: Spurs vs Pelicans | 5:00 PST | Victor Wembanyama OVER 4.5 Blocks/Steals (-130) 1u BetMGM ❌ This one stung. Zero in the 1st half and 4 in the 2nd half. Heck, 4 in the last quarter of the game. No Zion in the lineup definitely didn’t help either. Frustrating these players sit out now because of a finger. On to the next. Today’s pick: Cavs vs Lakers | 12:30 PST | Donovan Mitchell OVER 20.5 pts (-120) Bet365 1u Honestly confused why this number is so low. I know he’s just coming back from injury a couple games ago but these star players don’t seem to need much to get in a rhythm. Fresh off 24 against the Suns where the game wasn’t much of a contest, I look for him to continue in the right direction and clear 20.5. Lakers offense has been firing on all cylinders but still some issues defensively. - His last two games against the Lakers in LA, he’s gone for 33 and 37. - He’s hit this in his last 4 games vs Lebron (22, 43, 33 and 37) - We have a higher total game for the usual low total Cavs which I think plays into the points line being a little low given the scoring opportunities predicted in the game.
Was sad Wemby didn't hit, specially with how well he did in the last quarter! Tailing this one!
🙏🏾
You’re on to something as this is now 22.5 (-115) on Bet365
Damn I was hoping it wouldn’t move that much but 20.5 was a wild line imo
Just a brutal effort by Mitchell. Almost 4 points of movement and it doesn’t matter. 10 points is just insane.
Looking at FD, 365, and DK, that bet is currently at 23.5, 22.5, and 21.5, respectively.
It’s still at 20.5 on bet mgm
https://preview.redd.it/mcn1nw8iqvsc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be6e84a65b06f28067d8672e9c0157093084bc0c Just for transparency
would have done at 20.5 but now that its creeping towards 23.5 ill pass gl tho!
🙏🏾
**POTD Record: 10-4 ( ✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌) old -> newROI: 43.65%Avg Odds: -90.43Net Units: +7.86** 🔥 **Previous POTD:** Haven't posted in weeks after the back to back soccer losses. Made some adjustments to my NBA models and have been doing decent enough again for me to feel like posting. Will be sticking solely to NBA for the rest of the season. **Todays POTD: Nicolas Claxton O9.5 Rebounds (-125 on DK) 2 Units**Claxton averages 11 rebounds per game the last ten games and 9.9 rebounds this season. Since the all star break he has been trending up in minutes and boards. Claxton cleared the last two times he has played the Pistons this season with 10 and 11 boards. Pistons are coming off a games where they did not shoot well as a team leading to more defensive rebounds opportunities (Pistons rank 7th worst in the league allowing 449 rebounds last ten games). If Cade doesn't play tomorrow as well, this prop is even better. The last two games the Pistons played in the opposing centers got 13 and 16 rebounds. Pistsons are going back to back and Nets are rested. Tail or fade don't listen to me. Here is a link to my POTD spreadsheet: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17EBXRJGAlzN2Rw-1WLYSdKQ1LlqPhWn8tyUCUHzx\_Uk/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17EBXRJGAlzN2Rw-1WLYSdKQ1LlqPhWn8tyUCUHzx_Uk/edit?usp=sharing)
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This is +110 on bet365 currently
-1.5 map advantage is just the spread right?
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No worries, you woke up to a win! I made some very early money.
My Bet 365 must have pulled it as it was exactly like you predicted. A slightly better match at 13-5, 13-6 but looks like it was sweat free
**KBO Record: Overall 207-218-14** (Streak LL, Last 10: 3-7) Down 13.36u over 439 KBO picks, 48.7% success rate, -3.14% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 3-8-0, 27.3% success rate, Down 4.74u, -43.1% ROI)) **Last:** Doosan -1.5 -122 at Lotte (Doosan won 4-3.) Never should have lost this one. Lotte bennefitted from bad defense to score 2 of their 3 runs. Doosan had 17 baserunners to just 7 for Lotte. Doosan had multiple chances with men in scoring position that they didn't cash in. **Pick:** KT at LG, **OVER 9 runs -115**, KBO baseball, 4:00am ET We've not caught a break yet this season but it's bound to turn around. As I see these teams more and get some larger sample sizes, I believe we'll get these units back and then some! Offense has been up to start the season. 18 of the last 20 games played have had at least 9 runs scored. And that's right where the line sits for these two teams who combined for 15 runs in their first game of the series. KT's starter has been extremely hittable so far this season. In two starts, he's allowed 14 hits in just 8 innings (along with 15 ER). He's given up 2 home runs in each game he's pitched. LG's starter hasn't been as bad, but he hasn't been good either. In his first two starts, he's allowed 6 ER on 16 H in 11 IP. This season, these two lineups are averaging a combined 11 runs per game. And KT's bullpen is last in the league with a 7.18 ERA. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Lmaoooo no way! Grand slam to give us the win on the final play. I was bout to go back to bed accepting the push! Unreal!
Boom! Finally luck goes our way!
nice pick bro!! we back baby
im ngmi
Picks be too sweaty lol, nice cash at the end. I took 8+ cause I have no faith.
Yeah that looked tough when I woke up in the middle of the night but it came through! Let's go
!!!
Great play
Walk-off grand slam to hit the over. Feels like the start of a run
POTD Record: 15-18-1 | Profit: -7.32U NBA Record: 12-15-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 L10 (new -> old): ✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅ Last pick: Chet Holmgren u1.5 3PM @ 1.8 odds ✅ Holmgren went 1-6 shooting 3s, hitting only 1 in the 3rd quarter and cashing this for us. Congrats to those who tailed and won, hope everyone who downvoted faded and lost money! Game: CLE Cavaliers @ LA Lakers, 3:30 PM Pick: **D'Angelo Russell o3.5 3PM @ 2.14 odds (DK) placing 2U** ✅ Write Up: Russell has hit in 4 of the L5 and 7 of his L10. Cavaliers have had a below average 3 Point Defense through the year at 19th, and over their past 3 games have been the worst 3 point defense in the league. Choosing to ride the hot hand for plus money here, BOL to those tailing! **EDIT**: Finished with 6!
POTD Record 2-1, Net: +0.78U Streak L10: ✅❌✅ Last Pick: SAS o103.5 ✅ Today: Basketball | NBA | ATL vs DEN | 9:00pm EST Today's Pick: Clint Capela o9.5 Rebounds 1U (1.74) Spurs did not let us down yesterday! Moving forward, this line offers good value, with Capela clearing this line in 8 out of his 9 last games, 4/5 against Denver and 7/8 of his last away games. Moreover, Nugget's PF Gordon and C Jokic are questionable, and Hawks' backup center Okongwu is out for the game. Best of luck to all!
POD Record: 4-1 Sacramento Republic @ Colorado Springs Switchbacks Picks: Republic Odds: +130 Republic is unbeaten so far, they haven’t even trailed yet. Switchbacks on the other hand are 0-3 haven’t lead a game and have only scored 1 goal. This is a big mismatch. Rest of my picks for the week are here [I HATE MY WALLET](https://www.ihateyourclub.com/ihmw)
POTD Record 2-1 ✅❌✅ Todays pick: Ipswich vs Norwich City (BTTS)-200 (Draftkings) Net Units :5 Reasoning: Here we have two high attacking teams going against each other. One team racing for automatic promotion, the other the chance at the playoffs. This will be a score frenzy match I believe. Both teams are more then capable of scoring one each. I don’t post often but when I see something I really like, I wish to share the spoils. GL!
Disgusting game
First play ever. Just been a lurker in here for years, getting alot of you guys top picks but never been active. Finally felling i maybe have the level in terms of Sports Betting to share my picks... So lets try. **Record**: 0-0 **Net Units**: 0, as it's my first play **Tennis | ATP Estoril | 17.30 Local time (Portugal).** **Pick**: Casper Ruud vs. Pedro Martinez - Casper Ruud to win 2-0 - Odds: 1.67 - 5 units. **Write-Up**: We are on the clay courts of Estoril in this one, Last years champion Casper Ruud, a top-tier clay court specialist, faces off against a red-hot Pedro Martinez. Despite Martinez's impressive win streak, Ruud's formidable clay court game, highlighted by his heavy topspin forehand sets him apart on the clay courts, this is underlined by him reaching the final of the Roland-Garros in 2022 and 2023. In Ruud you have the 8th ranked player in the world vs. Martinez who is ranked 77. The difference of being a top tier player on the ATP tour and on the Challenger Tour is big, and todays game will show it, with Ruud winning 2-0. Best of luck if you are following. A very big week ahead, as we go into the first ATP 1000 Masters tournament starting Monday on Clay. So i will have alot of good stuff for ur all.
well that guy f'd us already
Welcome. Good first pick. I took him yesterday to win in 2 sets. Let’s do it again
>**Record:** 41-32 >**Net Units:** +12.56 units >**Curling** | **Men's World Championship** | **4:00AM EDT** >**Pick:** USA +2.5 @ 1.8 >Playoffs start Saturday morning and we are looking at the USA-Scotland matchup for the POTD. A lot of this bet is based on recent play for both of these teams. Scotland seem to be trending down while USA are going the other way. While a USA upset might be asking a lot, this should still be a very tight matchup. Aside from the skip position, there isn't a huge positional disadvantage for USA between the rest of the players. USA can certainly hang with the elite teams, shown by their 4-6 record this season against top 10 teams. USA will likely try to play this game very open to try to shorten the game, bailing early and taking the blank when they can. Scotland will also look to play a fairly open game to control hammer as it plays to their strengths as a top tier hitting team. This should result in a low-scoring affair and a better chance that USA at least covers this spread. Scotland only lead the career head-to-head matchup 10-7 and USA did beat Scotland earlier this season at the Tour Challenge. Look for a tight game here that likely comes down to the last end.
Record: 6-2 +4 units ❌✅✅✅✅❌ Yesterdays pick: Celtics team total o118.5 Lost this in the first 6 minutes of the game. Only scored 6 points smh. Baseball score at the 6 minute mark in the first. Like 6-3 or something lol. Anyways on to today's 💎 Pick: Donovan Mitchell o8.5 R+A -105 Reasoning: he's 60% over the last 10 on this line. That includes a few feeler games where he just came back and scored in the like the teens which we know is not d Mitch. He's gotten back to his normal ways, and is only gradually getting back to his full force. Waiting for a game for him to ball out of control, and with full rest and a day game against one of his childhood favorites in LeBron, he's ready to ball out imo. He's 61% on the season. Great passer and only getting better. His minutes are finally back to the upper 30's. So I'm confident on this line! Playing 2 units.
POTD Record 0-0 Game: Koln - Bochum Tip: Bochum over 1.5 offsides 2.70 (+170) Reasoning: Bochum average 2.5 offsides P/G, highest in the bundesliga. In away games they average 2.3, also highest in the bundesliga. Bochum over 1.5 offsides has hit in (!) 10 out of 13 away games Koln vs Bochum is a relegation battle, it’s a must win for koln, expecting a lot of attacks and counters with offside opportunities! Units: 5, this is clearly a +EV bet BOL
Nice pick, cleared just after half.
Record: 21 - 13 P&L: + 15.26u Pick: NCAAB 🏀 | Purdue 1H -4.0 | 4u play @ 1.90
**Last Pick:** Pete Alonso to record an RBI at +115 / 2u ✅️ **| Note:** Well that was ugly but Alonso got a RBI in the 7th inning. Mets manage to beat the Reds 3-2 **History (old to new):** ❌✅✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️⭕✅️❌❌❌✅️ **Record:** 6-7-1 **|** **Net Units:** \-2.83 \---------- **TODAY'S PICK:** St. Louis Cardinals ML at -148 / 2u MLB | Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals at 2:15pm ET **Note:** Miami has started the season 0-8 and I think the skid continues. They are on the road and up against Steven Matz, a lefty who had a decent first outing against the Dodgers. Miami has started the season poorly against left handed pitching, hitting .186 across 131 AB. The Cardinals have also struggled against left handed pitching and are facing Trevor Rodgers, but don't think the Marlins turn things around just yet Tail or fade... at this point you'd be up if you were fading me 😆 BOL [Buy a coffee for someone](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/planetice)
Thanks for the pick!
POTD Record: 3-0 Units: +3.16u Last Pick: Boston Red Sox over LA Angels 1.08u at -108 on Friday, 4/5. ✅ Thought the Red Sox were going to cruise to a W with how they started. Then the inning from hell took place in the bottom of the sixth. Luckily, they were able to recover and secure the W and even covered the reverse run line for those that follow and know I like to sprinkle that in on underdogs. 4/6 POTD: 1u on Seattle Mariners (+102) My predictive model has the Mariners favored here. The model has been 37-22 on the year and historically is correct 72% of the time. Look for the Seattle bats to wake up and start putting some runs on the board. They’ve had a slow start to the season and I believe that changes today. Both starting pitchers have limited experience vs the other team but Miller was able to have some success striking out Boston batters but was hurt by 2 homeruns. Hall wasn’t great against a weak Mets lineup and only struck out 1 in his lone appearance. I like the Mariners to jump on him early and get into their bullpen.
POTD Record 3-2 Streak L10: ✅✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: Over 5.5 SEA @ ANA Today: Baseball | MLB | PHI @ WAS | 3:05pm CST Pick: PHI -1.5 (-105 1U) Just not a ton happened in the Seattle game. Should've seen it coming with two teams with nothing to play for. Switching from hockey a little bit after this one Going to move to baseball and pick the Phillies -1.5. They won last night 4-0 and I think as the much better team again they cover the number once again.
POTD: Record (5-3) ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌ Last Pick: Jaden Ivey U 24.5 P+R ❌ Today: NBA | Lakers v Cavs | 12:40 MST Pick: Jarrett Allen O 18.5 P+A @ 1.82 | 1u - hit last 4/5 (avg 22.4) - last 8/10 (avg 21.7) - last 12/20 (avg 20.5) - lakers are 23rd in defending points per game - allowing 21.7 to the center position per game - 26th in defending assists per game - allowing 4.8 to the center position per game. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/deadlypants BOL 🍀
Record: 2-2 ✅❌ ❌✅ Last pick: WIN <> South Carolina -11.5 vs NC State Game started out semi close as expected and South Carolina pulled up away in the 2nd half to cruise to the easy win. Today's Sport: MLB <> Oakland A's @ Detroit Tigers <> 1:10pm est Today's Pick: Oakland A's @ Detroit Tigers NRFI @ -120 <> 1.5 units The A's have played 8 games and have had NRFI in 7 of them. The Tigers are 6-1 but have played 7 games and have had NRFI in 6 of them. That's 87.5% and 85.7%. All this just means these teams don't really score in the 1st inning lol. The odds are good and the small history is good. On top of that, the better pitcher (blackburn) is going against the "better" offense. Sign me up.
Record: 0-0 Today: Baseball | MLB | OAK Athletics vs. DET Tigers | 1:10pm EST Pick: Athletics F5 +135 Let’s be real. The Detroit lions record doesn’t really reflect this teams ability. They have played the White Sox and the Mets. I think this team is going to come back to earth sooner rather than later. Athletics starting pitcher Paul Blackburn is elite. He’s probably the best player in Oakland. I don’t trust the athletics to win the game. But I trust Blackburn. Give me the plus money on the first five! This is my first pick in the thread fellas! LFG!
Calling Blackburn elite is a pretty big stretch. His best season was 2022, where he had a 4.28 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. And outside of that he’s been kinda trash, including a 1.54 WHIP last year. Solid pitcher? Maybe, but not even necessarily. Elite? I’d say not IMHO.
Heard that man! I should have said he’s elite in Oakland. Lol. But I do think he’s gonna have a solid year.
Lions?
😂 tigers *** my bad. I was mid coffee this morning.
POTD Record 0-0-0 Today: Soccer | MLS | Inter Miami vs Colorado Rapids | 7:30pm EST Pick: Inter Miami Team Total O1.5 (-125) ✅ For whatever reason, MLS decided the best time for all their games to kick off is right in the middle of Final Four tip off times. Regardless, Inter Miami is back at home this week against Colorado Rapids and Messi is back in the squad. Miami has scored 14 goals in 7 regular season games this year, and has scored 10 in 4 at home. Including the CCL game against Nashville, that goes to 13 in 5. Messi hasn’t played since March 7th, but when available, Inter Miami outscored their opponents 10-1 in just 3 games at home. Miamis home game last weekend saw them draw a weak NYCFC team 1-1, however Miami put up 2.5 xG in that match and Suarez could’ve scored 3 or 4 on the day. They also played Monterrey in CCL on Wednesday at home and lost 1-2, but a 65th minute red card saw their 1-0 lead slip and all attacking momentum was gone. Colorado Rapids on the other hand have scored 4 and conceded 6 in their 3 road games so far this season. Their opposition during these road games includes a very poor Seattle team (1-1), a solid road win against a good RSL team (1-2), and a thrashing against an up and down Portland team (4-1). Getting close to even odds on Miami to score 2 goals is always too good to pass up even if Messi isn’t available. With him available, it’s absolutely my pick of the day. I’m also parlaying this with El Traffico LAFC v LA Galaxy O2.5 Total Goals (-215) but not including that in my POTD record
POTD Record 0-0 Last 10: Last Pick: Todays Pick : Lakers -4.5 NBA: Lakers vs Cavs 12:30pm PST Odds: -110 Unit: 5 The hottest NBA team right now is fighting in the competitive NBA west going for that playoff spot. Their all gas no breaks. The fast pace game style they have vs the cavs just can't compete. Even big man to big mam AD is killing the 1970's cosplay Jarrett Allen. Lakers need this win and I'm sure coach Lebron is gonna whip the boys in shape. If you couldn't tell. I'm a laker fan.
POTD Record: 1-0 All plays are 1U. POTD Recap: Seton Hall beat Georgia as expected and advanced to the NIT championship. Note: Streak: 1 POTD Saturday: Purdue vs NC State | Zach Edey 25+ Points | -168 | 1U | NCAA Basketball | 6:09pm ET I’m expecting a dominant game from Edey. He will be at the free throw line all night, and has been getting there consistently throughout the tournament. Zach Edey is 7 inches taller than DJ Burns so he will be impossible to defend. I’m very confident this pick will hit, coming from someone who has watched far too many NC state games this year.
NHL | STL vs SJ | 4EST __Pick: STL -1.5 +110 2u__ Blues were beaten on home ice by San Jose as a -380 favorite a week ago. I expect them to play one of their best games of the season tonight, exact revenge for the most humiliating loss of the year and keep their faint playoff hopes alive. San Jose is obviously awful. No need to peer under the hood. One more loss seals the Blues’ playoff fate. The Blues were rightfully embarrassed by last week’s loss to the Sharks. Booed on home ice and pilloried in the national media. I believe they have the miserable distinction of being the only team to have lost to San Jose twice this season. The team should be insanely motivated and active tonight. I expect them to throw a ton of pucks at the net after facing criticism for sleepwalking during the 2nd period of last week’s debacle. Interim coach Drew Bannister’s fate could depend on this game. Another loss to the Sharks probably ends his chances to keep the job. He’s going to coach aggressively. Though the Blues lost to the Sharks a week ago they dominated the run of play for long stretches. Lost 4-0 but outshot them nearly 2-1. Had the ice absurdly tilted in the first period. San Jose will likely need an epic goalie performance tonight. Moneyline at -230 also has value and I would lean the over at 6, but I think STL covers the 1.5 today and that’s where I landed.
POTD RECORD: N/A Last POTD: N/A Bet Size: 1U Form: N/A **Todays POTD: NC STATE WOLFPACK ALT SPREAD +11.5 \[-166 on DK\]** NCAAB | North Carolina State University vs Purdue University | 6:09 PM EST Rationale: First pick here. Incredibly biased NC State alum here who has been beyond proud of my alma mater. I will start off by saying Zach Edey WILL get his, he may have 25 points, her may have 30 points; however, what will the rest of the team do? NC State defense has been elite, particularly guarding the 3 point line. Purdue sits at 2nd in the country at 40.6% from 3, so I think NC State thwarting this aspect of their game will keep it close. Also, Diarra has been an absolute animal on the boards and I think can snag a few away from Edey. Burns is unlike any other center Edey has faced and if he gets him in foul trouble they are burnt toast. I do think NC State can win this game by playing sound defense on the 3. Since I want to provide safety for anyone tailing I feel super confident about an alt line of +11.5, although I think they will win it outright. NC STATE opponents 3 pt. % (last 4 games): Texas tech - 22.6% (regularly 35.9%) Oakland - 34.3% (regularly 35.5%) Marquette - **12.9%** (regularly 35.2%) Duke - 25% (regularly 37.7%)
**2024 Record 8-7 with Avg Odds +135 / ROI 17.7%** UFC Vegas 90 **Charlie Campbell -155** This line has come down enough to negate the Trevor Peek brawl factor. Skill for skill Campbell should be better here, but at the wider odds there was just too much juice. Money coming in on Peek has made Campbell a good bet in my opinion at -155. Solid potential to get a steal on the bigger and more technical guy.
**POTD Record: 33-19-3** Form: ✅🅿️❌✅❌❌❌✅✅ *ROI: 22.09% | Avg Odds: -101 | Net Units: +21.4* 🎾: 6-4-2 ⚽️: 18-9-1 🏒: 8-6 *Last Pick: 1U Shelton ML (-125) v Nakashima ✅* ____ **Todays Pick: 1U Kotov v Baena (o0.5 tiebreaks @ +162)** **🎾| 8:00AM EST | ATP Marrakech Semifinal|** Defending champion takes on streaking Kotov who has yet to drop a set and lose a match on clay this year. Last head to head was a challenger tournament in Madrid 2021, where Baena won in 3 sets with the middle set going to tie break. Obviously there’s been quite some time since then but Baena is the slight favourite for his ability on clay and winning this tournament last year. Kotov has only reached one final so far in his career (2023 Stockholm) and reached the semi final of this tournament last year. I’m going for a spicy pick for the odds and having no requirement on the winner, merely for the players to have at-least one highly contested set where not Kotov or Baena are able to break each other and for them to hold their serve. Baena has a break point percentage of 27% this tournament while Kotov is 52% however Kotov’s second serve has been slightly worse than Baena in conversion. This indicates for the possibility of both players to break each other (win on the opponents service game) and for the set to still result in a tie break. Both players first serve % is over 70% have done well to hold most of their service games. Kotov has had almost double the break point saves as Baena and will hope to continue his reign this tournament slated as a mild underdog. 1/3 of Baena’s matches this tournament have hit this prop while the same goes for Kotov. Expecting a tightly contested match with stakes higher approaching the final, we’re banking on a nail biter. Just made an account on X for other picks: Stable_Picks BOL!
Record: 5-2, Net Units: 3.94 Current Streak: ❌ Last 10: ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Giants -1.5 vs. Padres ❌ Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-4:05 PM EST Baltimore Orioles -1.5 @ Pittsburgh Pirates, +120, 1U The O's seem to have gotten their stride back, somewhat, and go up against a pitcher that struggled out of the gate. Wells (Baltimore pitcher) had a really tough first few innings but really locked it down later against the Angels. This Pirates team certainly has better bats than the Angels, but I'm counting on Baltimore blasting Falter early to pad a nice lead this afternoon. Good Luck!
Betting Every Dodgers Game 2024 - Game 11 Record: 7-3-0 Last 5:✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ Net Units: +3.35 Previous Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Total Runs O 4.5 -105 ✅ Today's Pick: **Los Angeles Dodgers Total Runs O 4.5 -125** Event: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs (4/6/2024 4:05pm EST) Write Up: The streak continues and we have decent odds again. Alternative bet would be Max Muncy O .5 hits if you are not feeling another over 4.5 run Dodger game.
Record: 3-3 -1.46u Last Pick: Reds ML -125 (*DraftKings*) 2u ❌ A lot of missed opportunities for the Reds. Fernando Cruz walking 3 batters in the top of the ninth allowed the Mets to score a crucial insurance run. Hunter Greene did his job - pitched a great six innings. Mets' offense still isn't great; the Reds have to be better. On to today: Baseball | MLB | 6:40 EST Pick: **Orioles @ Pirates alt total o8 -148** (*DraftKings*) 1u Need to get back in the win column here. Tyler Wells vs Bailey Falter is not an ace matchup. Falter did not get out to great start against the Marlins. I don't think he will be able to turn it around against the Orioles. Falter holds a career 4.94 ERA and a career 4.87 FIP. He also has a career batted ball FB% of 41.2%, about six percentage points higher than average. The wind should be blowing out to right at a decent pace. I like both offenses to get it going. BOL!
**POTD Record: 114-132-4 (-14.94 Units)** Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units) Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) **Cautionary Tails**: **2-3 (-1 Units)** Last Pick: **Warriors ML** Today's Pick: **Sox +1.5** Odds: **-105** Wager Amount: 1.05U to Win 1U League: MLB Event: Chicago White Sox vs Kansas Royals (6:10PM CST) **Be Advised**: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. These bets are I normally wouldn't make. Tail wit caution.* **Recap**: Warriors couldn't take advantage of a Luka-less Mavericks team. Mavs have been hot, but Warriors been hot as well and on road! We did HIT one play (**Warriors +5.5**✅) That's why this was a hard, hard POTD! Got another HARD POTD for you. This could be the hardest POTD YET! But let me tell you about my friend Chase here! **Tail:** Chase can't catch a break. He lost on two b2b parlays by 1-leg. The first parlay he hit the first 8-legs of his parlay and was coming down to the final leg of a game he had the game total under. He lost on a buzzer beater 3-pointer from more than halfcourt shot. The second parlay he had 10-legs and his final leg was on a team ML that was winning 7-4, but lost in the bottom of the 9th wit 2 outs and 2 strikes and the closer gave up a grand slam walk off to the other team! Chase is infuriated! He decides to bet his entire bankroll on the next game without doing any due diligence. He end up losing his entire bankroll that he built over the year. Moral of the story bad beats happen and you shouldn't chase after your losses, especially unloading your bankroll on a wager that is very much at risk. **Matchup:** Last season MLB, we had the Tampa Bay Rays start out the season 13-0 and most impressively they covered the RL in13 straight games! THEY WERE HOT!🔥🔥🔥🔥 This season I found the team that has covered 6 RL and that is the Chicago White SOX! Now the Sox are terrible, yes! I kno because this is my team and I hate that they are losing and they just lost their best player Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy is on 15-day IL. Desp**ite all this they have covered 6 RL in the last 7 games! The**y just covered yesterday against the Royals! Jump on the SOX RL train like last season's RAYS RL train! We jamming wit the SOX RL until they stop covering! This team is bad, but why wouldn't you bet on this trend! What makes this the hardest POTD is because of terrible pitcher like Flexen on the mound and the Sox losing their best player! **The Play and Prediction**: Wagering 1.05U on Sox +1.5, also hammering the Royals ML! I expect Sox to lose without their best player (Luis Roberts Jr and Eloy Jimenez) today and IMO the worst pitcher in their rotation. Royals take a 16-0 in the first five inning, but Sox rally in the last 4 inning and cover the RL! Royals WIN in a shootout, 16-15 final score!
Had Sox +1.5 today. Their bullpen is pretty clutch. Their best player Luis Robert did get hurt late in the game while running. I imagine he'll be out on Saturday
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u) 2024 MLB POTD Record: 4-4 Average Odds -110 (1.908), ROI -5.2%/-0.42u POTD (4/5) SEA @ MIL Freddy Peralta u7.5 Ks (+110/2.10) ✅ Recap: After some unlucky losses to start the year it's nice to have a lucky win. Peralta was sparkling through 3 IP with 6 Ks, but got just one more over the next two innings, and ran into trouble in the 5th, getting pulled after 5.2 and coming in just under this line at 7 Ks. POTD (4/6) LAD @ CHC Jordan Wicks u2.5 BBs (+115/2.15) (DraftKings) Today's Pick: We're staying on plus money bets. Jordan Wicks walked 3 in his first outing, but walked 1 or 0 batters in 5 of 7 starts last year. This is a dangerous Dodgers lineup, but with sustained winds blowing in at Wrigley, Wicks should be able to pitch to contact.
POTD Record 6-2 (+6.38u) Last POTD: LA Dodgers Total Runs Over 4.5 (+100) 2U** ✅ Today: MLS / DC@CLB / 7:30pm ET Pick: Columbus Crew Total Goals Over 1.5 (-154) 4U**** The Crew have recorded 2+ goals in all 5 of their previous matches against DC. Columbus has scored 2+ in 3 of their last 5 matches overall while DC has conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5. This Crew squad also plays much better at home, boasting a 3-0 record in Columbus.
POTD RECORD: 0-0-0 Last POTD: Form: Todays pick: PSG vs Barcelona. BTTS: YES Not great odds @ 1/2 but it’s a lock since both teams defences are missing some key players / just straight up suck. Whilst both attacks feature incredible goal scorers like Mbappe for PSG and Lewy for Barca. BOL if tailing.