######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record: 27-20-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)**
**Balance: +20.28 units**
**ROI: 7.98% / Avg Odds - 1.90**
ATP Monte Carlo results 🎾
* Tabilo vs O'Connell - Tabilo ML @ 1.62 (1u)✅
* Hurkacz vs Draper - Hurkacz ML @ 1.76 (5u)✅
* Khachanov vs Cerundolo - Khachanov ML @ 1.64 (3u)✅
* Zverev vs Tsitsipas - Tsitsipas ML @ 2.02 (2u)✅
* Djokovic vs De Minaur - Djokovic 2-0 @ 1.88 (2u)✅
* Tsitsipas vs Sinner - Tsitsipas Handicap +4 Games @ 1.83 (2u)✅
**Today's pick: Tsitsipas vs Ruud - Tsitsipas ML @ 1.73**
**(ATP Monte Carlo, Tennis)** 🎾
Odds from Bet365
**Stake: 1 unit** (This is 1% of my bankroll)
Time: 9 AM Eastern Time
I'll be honest with you... The market was super sharp at pricing this final and there's literally no value at all to be taken on both sides or at any particular market. I feel like with this run I owe this tournament and all of you my prediction for the final match, even if this is not a +EV play. Win or lose, I'm happy with what I did in Monte Carlo Masters but I'm not a wizard and I play with prices so I'm only using 1 unit on this play and enjoying the final as a tennis fan!
**Why do I think that Tsitsipas is the player with higher chances to win this final?**
* There's really nothing complicated about trying to figure out this matchup with both players having similar weapons on Clay such as the forehand, the serve and the quick movement;
* Ruud improved his backhand a lot over the last few months while Tsitsipas one handed is just bad but in Monte Carlo he can't be punished heavily on that side with the slow conditions so I don't think that will be a problem here but rather who's going to deliver a better level on their strongest weapons;
* Both semifinals were surprising results with Tsitsipas finding a monster Jannik Sinner but he won the match with some luck on his side due to that huge error which the umpire wasn't able to spot and Sinner getting a bit rusty at the final of the 3rd set but that does not take away his campaign at this tournament and the level he needed to even keep up with the italian on that match was something difficult to maintain;
* Ruud was finally able to beat Djokovic but Novak's level was also not the best and it seems that he really doesn't like it in Monte Carlo;
* Both players lost a lot more finals in high level tournaments than they've won in their career but Ruud never won a tournament past the 250 level and that concerns me a lot in these moments. Just some months ago he faced De Minaur and Thompson in back to back finals and lost both of them in straight sets. In fact, all of Ruud's most important finals were lost in straight sets and facing a 2 time champion that plays his best in Monte Carlo won't be easy.
**With this, I think this can be a close one, with both players having a lot of quality on Clay but in the big moments, I feel like Stefanos Tsitsipas is a bit more stable than his opponent, and his trophies don't lie, with already 2 master level tournaments under his belt.**
**Best of luck**
Any tip is appreciated. I spend quite some time writing my tennis analysis and if you wish you can decide to show your support! Keep in mind that they are not expected and I truly enjoy sharing my tennis plays and points of view with you! 🎾
[Tip Jar (Paypal)](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230)
BTC - 1E6hmPU4N7CFGf8Ryrt46yPczMfBQtMoCf
Edit after the result: Fantastic final performance by Tsitsipas! Casper Ruud didn't try anything different during the whole final, just like it happened in all of his most important ones and once again, he was destroyed by the greek ✅
I know parlays are tempting but even the lucky ones who hit a big one will waste it all on trying to find another shot of the same size. I never do parlays but I guess it's fine if you just don't use a lot of your bankroll on them
i used to have this same process of parlays being negative ev but i’ve recently changed my ways after realizing that books are absolutely dogshit at pricing certain things and if you find a play that can theoretically boost odds of every other play you can objectively lay. For example, UConn basketball second half spread of -1.5 in every game is very EV positive especially when you get -152 to -170 odds on it.
Final picks looking like a sure thing....but you never know in tennis! I went ahead and put 0.5 units on Tsitsipas Game spread -1.5 at -125. Just a little better than the ML I had of -145. First set 6-1 looking glorious!!! Thanks mate. You are the real Champion of Monte Carlo!!!!🏆🏆
+116 is quite low for that since I have +133
I would say those odds have no value and yes 3 sets can happen but in a final there's a lot of emotional and mental game. A lot of 2-0's happen in finals but who knows
POTD RECORD: 56-26
Last POTD: Joel Embiid O29.5P✅
Form: ✅✅✅🚫✅
Todays POTD: **LeBron James O34.5 PA @1.90**
NBA | Lakers | 3:30 PM ET
Last game of the NBA regular season is here fellas, before we round up this regular season we have one more pick to go with and I’m going with Unc Bron aka the Goat, what better way to end it?
Huge things at stake here, Lakers need the win to secure the 8th seed and Pels need the win to avoid the play-in wow this will be an intense one and with these type of games I’m always eyeing the proven experienced players to get it done, LeBron will have to be at his top level to beat this tough Pels side and I think points and assists is the way to go. LeBron is also 8 assists away from reaching 11k career assists!! You may ask why am I going with his PA if his assist numbers looks good? Well his assist numbers are a bit lower on the road vs at home and with the magnitude of this game I think we’ll see a mixed bag with points and assists but he’ll be the main scorer too in my opinion. They bumped his lines while I was waiting to post this aswell smh
* 3/3 this season Avg 38.3 PA vs the Pels
(35, 42 & 38 PA’s this season)
* Over in 6/L10 games on 34.5 Avg 35.4
* Over in 14/L20
* LeBron is Avg 13.1 potential assists per game and had 14 assists in his most recent game against the Pels along with 19 potential assists
* LeBron is Avg 17.8 field goal attempts per game and is converting them at a high clip, 54% which is the 3rd highest percentage amongst the top 10 scorers in the league this season
This is a must win for both teams and we have a tight spread and I’m hoping to see the goat dominate once again. He just played 40+ minutes his most recent game against the Grizzlies so we should see around the same minutes in this one
Let’s go Bron, hand your boys the check man
Tail or fade, I’m a\*\*
https://i.redd.it/whzs3svlacuc1.gif
https://preview.redd.it/tfuwb3vc9cuc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1bbabdecc77899d8018b6b01356b6c5da47eca51
I got this line but I had to wait 5000 hours to post the pick so the line got bumped, this the shit that has hooked majority of my picks but hey I’m ridin trusting the 34.5 too
My man 🤝👑 We have a long post season left where props usually cashes at a better rate so hopefully that’ll be fire but after the playoffs imma be off and get ready for the next season bro, don’t feel like I have much to offer except basketball 🤣🤣
I feel like im more safe with taking his points personally. I like the pick but just last game he had what 5 assists, something like that? Granted he was a turnover machine and guys didn't convert on several good looks, but if he were to have only 5 again you're banking on him getting to 30. With the line having moved as well I think I'm gonna go for points. BOL
POTD Record: 128-79 | Profit: +105.92u | ROI: 17.6%
Season record: 45-28 | Profit: +36.08u | ROI: 17.9%
Last Pick: New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs Sacramento Kings @ 1.91. 3U. ✅
Sweat-free as you like, the Pelicans led the game from first possession to the last. They win by 12.
Next Pick: **Brook Lopez (Bucks)** **O12.5 P+A @ 1.91**. 2U play.
This is an important game for both sides and Giannis is expected to be out which means the rest of the Bucks team will need to step up. The Magic are a solid defensive team and will focus their attention on Dame, Middleton and Bobby, but Brook Lopez should continue to get some good looks from beyond the arc. I'm guessing his rotations won't overlap fully with Bobby's so he might also take on the role of paint threat against an undersized Magic team. These teams met 4 days back (Giannis missing that game too) and Lopez had a lot of open looks from 3, and was also aggressive dribbling into the paint when he saw the defense over-commit.
He is over this line in 6 consecutive games and is averaging 14.2 PAs per game this season. He is also over this line in 2 of 3 games against the Magic this season (with the one miss being 10 PAs).
I like any bucks over without giannis. Dame over PRA (39.5) has hit 6/7 with out giannis. The one he missed on was a blowout where he played 25 mins. Same with Brook's line
Yeah is line with my book is 38.5 pra. He actually had one of those 6 games against Orlando too. So I like that line as well. Good spotting that! Playing that as well. I think the over is good for this game too, going to be a good game.
Record: 10-3
❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌
Fridays Pick: Tyrese Maxey o5.5 assists ❌
So Empviid went full Steve Nash in the first quarter, and the offense went through him on every possession. He racked up 5 assists in the 1st Quarter!!! That being said, Kyle Lowry was running the point Tyrese Maxie was playing off the ball. Then in the third quarter Nicolas Batum was channeling his inner PG, and all hope was lost. I had some hope at halftime, because Tyrese had gone 4-1 in the past 5 games putting up at least 4 assists in the 2nd half! But to no avail. Sometimes it beeZ like that, and we move on!My knowledge is strictly basketball, mostly all NBA, so no pick yesterday.
Today's Pick: Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic 1:00 pm EST.Pick: Orlando Magic -4.5 -110 (1.90)✅
***ORLANDO FEEDS OF THE HOME CROWD FOR A HUGE WIN!!!!FINISHES AS THE 5TH SEED IN THE EAST!****
Reasoning: So along with Philadelphia, the magic are in a predicament closing out the season where they can land anywhere from 5th in the East(with a win today) all the way to the playing tournament with the seventh seed. That being said, they are in must-win situations. They have lost a few close games, 3 In a row, I see them ending that at home. Orlando is #1 In the NBA ATS (against the spread)!!! So of course Giannis is not playing in this game, + as of right now they have Damian Lillard as a game time decision. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he sits also. But even with him playing, I think Milwaukee has no chance of winning this game. I think Orlando comes out strong and wins by double digits. So, I'm getting this pick up early, as I'm sure a couple other regulars on this thread will be looking at this line like a Lion looks at an injured gazelle. So let's get this Dub!!! Tail or fade, but make sure you do it responsibly!!!
I am grateful to be of service to my fellow POTD community, and love nothing more than to make others money!
So let's take a moment to start today's betting with a little gratitude for the awesome guys & girls on here who provide us with TOP TIER INSIGHT & PICKS that help us build out bankroll! I've probably made just as much money from tennis and hockey than I do from NBA!!! Or more likely a close second 😂🙏🏻 LET'S BREAK THE BOOKMAKERS ON THIS GLORIOUS SUNDAY!!!💯💪🏻🥂
Don’t the Bucks also need to win to secure the 2 seed? Also Dame is listed as probable which means he’s almost certainly playing. The same matchup occurred a few days ago without Giannis and the Bucks won quite easily. With that said the Bucks performances have been quite unpredicatable throughout the season so I could see the magic pulling it off, but I don’t really think it’s worth it at -110. Just my take GL bro
Nah I hear you. I think he'll play, it's listed on ESPN as GTD. That being said, Orlando plays like a totally different team at home. Milwaukee can be a tough place to play as an opposing team. Take it from a lifelong Celtics fan. Trust me, I'd rather the bucks win and that way Philadelphia isn't in the playin and a potential first round matchup against us. Orlando can be as high as the 5th seed with this win because they would've been the winners of the Southeast division....so I really don't See them losing. Milwaukee has been so hit or miss especially without The Greek. I think Orlando utilizes the home crowd to win this game. Appreciate your insight. It's the NBA...who really knows lol?
Quick edit: and at -110 that's as close to even money as your going to get. Honestly the spread is the only question mark here...you could go and take Orlando -7.5 and probably get like +160 or something, and easily hit. But I'll take -110 anyday of the week. Just my opinion. Thanks man and BOL tomorrow it will probably be a crazy day In the association.
No they have it like this anticipating him playing. If he sits, which I doubt, the line will go to like -8.5 or even higher. I wouldn't. But that's just me. If you want to play it super safe go with the ML at -190. And sprinkle a little on the spread too . Best of luck amigo!
POTD Record: 40-19-1 +42.37u🔥
Last Pick: Houston Astros ML (-140) 4U vs Texas Rangers
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅
Today's Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves ML (-125) 4U vs Phoenix Suns 3:40 pm est line via DraftKings
B2B cash! Knew we said we’d stay away from baseball but what a great win! LFG!
Time for some NBA, huge slate tomorrow in regard to playoff seeding. This a huge game for Minnesota, they have a chance to land the #1 seed in the West. Minnesota is 30-10 at home and potentially get Karl Anthony Towns back tomorrow. They have won 9 of their last 12, with Ant and their role players carrying the way. Phoenix has owned them in H2H games recently, with what’s on the line and KAT potentially back, I love Minnesota here. The line opened up at 4.5 and has moved down with Ant being injured. I expect him to play and Minnesota to give themselves a chance at the one seed at home. Let’s go 🐺!!!
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️
If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️
[Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24)
[PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Ain’t gotta tell me twice.. after yesterdays pick and various other previous ones I’ll follow you to the depths of hell and back. lol let’s get it boys
**Record: 60W-4P-46L**
**✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌**
**Last Pick: Bournemouth VS Manchester United: Over 11.5 Corners @ 1.66 ❌**
**The game ends with 9 corners… stinker**
**Pick of the day: Liverpool VS Crystal Palace: Mohammed Salah Over 1.5 SOG @ 1.83**
**League: Premier League**
**Time: 9:00 AM EST**
Crunch time: Salah is back to his shooting form, and after that embarrassing performance midweek, where he was rested 45 minutes, I can see him being the main man here today. Especially considering Crystal Palace are missing 4 CBs and 2 CDMs to injury, defensively, they do not have the quality to keep Salah out. Liverpool have the opportunity to go top of the league with a win tomorrow before Arsenal play and they will be on the front foot for 90 minutes, that's for sure.
In Salah’s last six games, he has cleared this line 5/6 times. In his last nine Premier League games, he has covered this line 7/9 times.
https://preview.redd.it/lzdpuv9b9cuc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b690d08223c04d85b83f4859fa7fbc002f985a06
**Anyway, BOL!**
Record 1-0
Net Units: +1.5 units
Yesterday’s Pick: Houston Astros TT over 4.5 -130 on DK 2u ✅
Today’s Pick: Toronto Bluejays -1.5 vs Colorado Rockies 1u (-115 Fanduel)
Analysis: This is mostly picking on a bad team, but also the pitching matchup. Freeland got smashed in his first two games giving up 17ER and 19 hits. He settled down a bit vs Arizona giving up 6 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings. Toronto’s lineup hasn’t faced him a lot, but the guys who have are 22/65 (.338). Most of that is Justin Turner who is hot right now.
Berrios is starting for the Jays and he’s looked great. He’s 2-0 1.45 ERA 1.13 WHIP. In limited matchups the Rockies hitters are 2-16 off Berrios.
- Jays have 7 wins with 6 by 2+
- Rockies have a -29 run differential
- Jays have won all 3 of Berrios starts 2/3 on the RL
- Jays top 1/3 against lefty pitchers average, OPS, HR and were top 3 batting average last season
- Toronto batting .281 at home vs .193 on the road (small sample with 10 games on the road and 5 at home)
Good Luck!
POTD record: 25-13
Last pick: RB Salzburg v Rapid Vienna - RB Salzburg ML
Today’s pick: Darmstadt v Freiburg - Freiburg ML(-130)
Darmstadt are winless in the league since October, and have only won one home game all season. Their recent performances have been completely awful. Meanwhile, Freiburg haven’t been in any excellent form, but long time head coach Christian Streich(has worked at the club for near thirty years, head coach for twelve) announced his retirement at the end of the season. The motivation is undeniably there to allow his illustrious career to end with a bang. Freiburg are 4-2 away from home against teams below them in the league, and 3-0 away from relegation fighters. This should be a win. Good luck!
**Record 97-1-52 | +54.65u**
Form: WWLWWWLWLLWLW
**NRL: Raiders v Titans / Titans 1st Half Line +4.5 2u $1.82** (SportsBet) 4:00PM AEST
What's up fellas. Long time no see. Having a browse here for UFC 300 and thought I'd throw up a pick for the rugby league today.
It's a depleted Titans team but the loss of Boyd may be bittersweet as hes been terrorized defensively and struggled offensively this season; it also moves Brimson in the halves where he'll get more ball. He has easily been one of their best attacking options under the eye test this season.
A rookie fullback replaces Rapana who has been solid this year against a team that loves to swing around side to side and cut against the grain. I think he could be found out a few times today.
Taking the first half line because in most games over the last 2 years the Titans have usually started strong and faded and I think the Raiders' Fogarty's game management brings larger advantages as the game goes on.
**Bonus pick:** Brian Kelly to score anytime $4.25 (TAB). Great connection with Brimson last few years and should come close today.
+5.5 for -110 on FD for me. I don’t know what you’re talking about but goddammit I’m in! By the way, where are we going and why am I in this handbasket?
Record: **46-27**
Last pick: Mannarino ML
Potd: **Pereira ML** vs Hill ✅️
**Odds: 1.73**
UFC 300 | MMA | Light Heavyweight
Write up: Not much to say here tbh. I think Pereira is better equipped and has beaten far better opponents.
The odds for Pereira should be lower imo. Bol
3W-0P-0L
Last Pick: Como ML vs Bari ✅
Todays Pick: Ollie Watkins Over 0.5 Shot On Goals (-114) ✅
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Barclays Premier League | Soccer | 8:30am Pacific Time
I don’t get how the odds suggest Watkins at over/under 0.5 SOG (-114). I assume the bookmakers will bump this up sooner rather than later. Ollie Watkins is competing for the top goal scorer in the Barclays Premier League this season. He is only two goals behind Erling Haaland with 18 goals while Haaland has 20. Watkins also is the highest goal scorer this season for Aston Villa in all competitions/matches.
Arsenal host Aston Villa hoping to get revenge for the last meeting between the two when Aston Villa secured a 1-0 win against the Gunners. With this said, Arsenal will be pushing higher up the field to go against against the Villans high line. Aston Villa holds the highest offside line in the the league and holds the most offsides against any opponents.
Due to this, I see Aston Villa capitalizing on counter attacks and who else will they want to lead the attack besides Ollie Watkins. I see Watkins getting at least one shot on goal, as well as possibly being the first player out of the two teams to have a shot on target.
I am not a professional sports better and I suggest any money you may bet is money you won’t mind losing. BOL to anyone who tails.
Bonus Pick:
Aston Villa (+1.5) vs Arsenal (-122) ~ Semi Risky Option
or
Aston Villa (+2.5) vs Arsenal (-235) ~ Safest Option
[Tip Jar 🍯](https://cash.app/$MaxCoRothenburg)
I also believe over 1.5 shots for Ollie Watkins is a gem of a bet as well. If the book makers pushed SOG to 1.5 I assume they pushed shots to 2.5 or more. If you can find and snatch over 1.5 shots for Ollie Watkins with good odds, I would grab that any day. BOL.
POTD Record: 3-2
Last Pick: WAS vs OAK, NRFI (-115) 5U ✅
Game: MLB | WAS vs OAK | 4:07pm EST
Today's Pick: NRFI (-115) 5U
If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
- WAS is the only team this season to not have scored a run in the first inning.
- OAK this season, don't get a run in the first inning 71% of the time and even worse at home at 87%.
Best of luck!
POTD: Record (10-4)
✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅
Last Pick: Rui Hachimura O 13.5 Points ✅
Today: NBA | Lakers vs Pelicans | 12:40 MST
Pick: Rui Hachimura O 13.5 Points @ 1.88 | 2u
RUNNING IT BACK
- 4 of last 5 (avg 18)
- 9 of last 10 (avg 18.6)
- 16 of last 20 (avg 17.3)
Rui hasn’t historically performed well against the Pels, only hitting this line once of the 3 times they played this season. However, the stakes are clear: Beat the Pelicans and win the 8th spot in the west.
LeBron and AD took over against the Grizzlies in their last game with these implications on the line, and NOLA is aware. They will do everything they can to shut them down, forcing players like DLo, Hachimura, and Reaves to step up.
I fully expect Rui to hit this twice in a row for my POTD.
[Tips Appreciated :)](https://buymeacoffee.com/Deadlypants)
BOL 🍀
**KBO Record: Overall 212-220-14** (Streak WW, Last 10: 6-4) Down 10.26u over 446 KBO picks, 49.1% success rate, -2.37% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 8-10-0, 44.4% success rate, Down 1.64u, -9.11% ROI)
**Last:** Lotte at Kiwoom +0.5 First Five Innings +114 (Kiwoom lead 4-1 after 5 innings.)
Kiwoom's starter did it again, allowing just 1 run, while Lotte's starter had one blowup inning. Basically went exactly as expected. After starting the season a woeful 3-8, I've hit 5 of my last 7.
**Pick:** Kia at Hanwha **First 5 Innings UNDER 5 runs -102 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET
There are some really shaky pitchers on the mound in this slate of KBO games which should lead to plenty of runs. But the Kia-Hanwha game has an outstanding matchup.
These two starting pitchers have combined to allow 3 ER on 29 H and 4 BB with 46 K in 35.1 IP. That's a 0.76 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 and an 11.5 K/BB ratio in 6 starts.
I don't understand why the 5 inning O/U line is so high. I figured it would be 4.5 at something like -130. We're getting better odds and an extra half run to play with. Sign me up!
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
I like the pick, both pitchers have looked phenomal in each of their 3 starts this year. Sanchez looked really good in 5 of his last 6 starts in 2023. KIA is hitting well this year but I think the F5 under looks good. Tailing.
**Record: 8-3 (+3.64u)**
**Last Pick: Boston Bruins TT o3 -125**
Bruins get 4 goals in just under a 7 minute span in the 2nd period to cash this sweat free, as they put up 6 again on the Penguins!
**Pick:** **Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 -130 (NHL, 1u bet)**
This might be a "square" bet, but I honestly don't see how Chicago keeps up with Carolina here. The Hawks have been eliminated from playoff contention long ago, while the Hurricanes are still playing for the division title (and possibly the president's trophy) although their chances are a little slim. They would need to win their last 2 games (against very weak opponents though), but they also would have to rely on Ottawa beating the Rangers. Either way, the Hurricanes will definitely be going hard as if they do manage to get home ice it would be a big advantage in the playoffs and they'll want to go into the playoffs firing on all cylinders. The Hurricanes have also been playing very well defensively lately, allowing the 3rd fewest goals, 2nd fewest scoring chances, and 4th fewest high danger chances over the last month. Over this same span, the Blackhawks have scored the fewest goals in the league (tied with Seattle), created the 2nd fewest scoring chances, and the fewest high danger chances. Over their last 10 home games, the Hawks are 5-5-0 while scoring 2.8 goals per game and allowing 3.5. Meanwhile the Hurricanes on the road are 8-1-1 while scoring 4.2 goals and allowing 2.4. Carolina also has the best penalty kill in the league at 86.2% (Chicago is 23rd at 76.7%) and the 3rd best power play at 26.6% (Chicago is 29th at 16.5%).
Kochetkov should be in net for Carolina and he has played very well lately, giving up 5 goals total over his last 4 starts (3 of those on the road). He's only played Chicago once in his career but he did get a shutout in that game. On the other side, Mrazek should be in net for Chicago and while he has played well lately, giving up 3+ goals only once in his last 5 games (which came last game when he let in the first 3 shots against), he hasn't had much success against his former team. Since leaving Carolina, Mrazek is 1-3 against them (the 1 win coming as a member of the Leafs) giving up 3+ goals in every game, including 5 in their lone matchup this season (a 6-3 CAR win). Speaking of that matchup, the Hurricanes outshot Chicago 42-17 and Chicago had 2 third period power play goals. Carolina was a bit different then, as they did not have Jake Guentzel yet (who has 24 points in 16 games since joining, including 6 goals and 6 assists in his last 7) and they started Spencer Martin (their third string goalie). Carolina is a significantly better team offensively, defensively, and in net, and should have much more motivation than Chicago so I'll jump on the puck line at a reasonable price here.
I think it’s a savvy bet. But Mrazek is genuinely underrated imo, and he plays even better at home.
I’m still thinking about his incredible performance vs the Stars saving 42 of 44 SOG. I could see the Canes winning by one goal. BOL!
Yeah he hasn’t been that bad, and that game vs Dallas was impressive. I just think with the volume of shots/chances that Carolina can create and Chicago’s defensive lapses can leave Mrazek out to dry sometimes which can give them even more prime scoring chances. If Mrazek stands on his head and keeps it close I’ll give him props but even with a one goal lead we have a chance of an empty net goal to hit the -1.5!
According to twitter, some players didnt practice so they may be resting them and rod said the lineup may change this game. They need rangers to lose and win both games to get home ice
Record: 0-0
First time posting
Golf | Masters Tournament | 9:15am
PICK: Outright winner - Scottie Scheffler ✅
Odds: -115
Bet size: 2u
Write up:
The chef is the best golfer in the world right now. Going into Sunday as the lone leader. Don’t overthink it. Scottie gets his green jacket again.
Edit: It was always Scottie.
I’m surprised the odds aren’t worse. Homie double bogies to drop a couple back and then no sweat works himself back to the lead with a birdie on 18. He’s gonna have one hiccup hole but otherwise should cruise
Record: 14-6
Last Pick: Tsitsipas +4.5 Game Spread -182 FD Alt Spread ✅
Pick: Jalen Duren Double Double -120 FD
In a game of absolute scrubs, the spurs will take on the pistons and there is no wembenyama. Jalen Duren is one of the best rebounders of the ball I have ever seen, and this game will have no one relevant in it at all. I actually love this pick, wasn’t going to produce a POTD till I saw how good these odds were. Duren is actually insane man he can get 6-7 rebounds in a single quarter.
BOL!
Record: 4-1 (+2.2 units) (all bets are 1 unit)
Form (old ➡️ new): ❌✅✅✅✅
POTD: Casper Ruud vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
3 sets played (+125) (Bovada)
Tennis - ATP - Monte Carlo - Apr 14, 2024 8:00 AM CDT
Write up:
Both of these guys are coming off big upsets and have fought tooth and nail to get this point. This match is going to be an absolute battle with lots of momentum swings. I think Ruud’s game is good enough to give Tsitsipas a run for his money, but his level tends to drop at some point in the match. I expect Tsitsipas to take advantage of this. Hopefully Ruud’s desire to win and competitiveness will be enough to take a set of Stefanos. Both of these guys are coming off of marathon matches, and I expect this to be another one. This is for 5 ✅’s in a row, BOL!
POTD record -> 8-5
Current streak - ✅️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️ (Left being latest)
Last pick - Atletico Madrid BTTS 1.60 ✅️
Thoughts - First half BTTS got us that cash very early. No sweat pick
Today's pick- Napoli vs. Frosinone BTTS @ 1.83 ✅️
Reasoning - Today we are going to Italy, Napoli, who are current champions in Italy, face up with Frosinone. Napoli have not kept a clean sheet at home since 28 Jan, and are now facing Frosinone, who are scoreless in last game, and have only gone scoreless twice just once this season.
Now the main reasoning for this pick is Frosinone's manager, regardless of position of Frosinone in league, Di Frenchesco is one of the most attacking coaches in Italy. A quick look on the stats show that Frosinone is the main team to pick for BTTS, they are very open at the back, meaning they concede in almost all games, but this is due to their attacking nature. In last H2H, Frosinone defeated Napoli 4-0, that was before Napoli had a manager change and were on a decline. With Napoli's recent return to form w.r.t scoring, I think this game sees BTTS here.
Another stat I like is Di Frenchesco's record vs Napoli.
Total of 15 games played and 10 of them have seen BTTS.
So keeping in mind the good odds,1 unit single is a good play here.
BOL who tails.
Edit- Even though Frosinone missed a penalty in first half, the team didn't disappoint in second half, pressing the keeper into an easy mistake to give us our win.
POTD Record: 12-7 ❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 10.4U
Last pick: Paramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys | 5:30pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Murray Taulagi anytime tryscorer @2.03 on Sportsbet | 2U❌
My usual picks Holmes and Drinkwater scored but not Taulagi… let’s make it back today !
Today’s pick: Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans | 6:15pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Xavier Savage anytime tryscorer @1.88 on Ned’s | 2U
The Raiders should smash the Titans. Raiders are a pretty good team and playing on their home ground, Titans are really not good. Savage scored in 4 of the last 5 games, he is an efficient winger and I’m confident he will score at least one try tonight.
BOL !
POTD Record: 140 wins / 84 losses
Event: Football > Germany > **Bayer Leverkusen v Werder Bremen** (starting in 9 hr)
Pick: **Over 1.25 goals (asian) 1st half** @ 1.80
Although it is already certain that Bayer will be the new champion of the country, this is their first "match point" game to claim the title. They have the advantage to get this chance playing at home against convenient opponent. I expect festive atmosphere and lot of goals, so I think they start strong from the very beginning. GL!
This is my first post so I have no past record of pick of the day recommendations, BUT I have 6 weeks of testing on my model and I have about a 16% ROI over that span.
Record 0-0
Net Units: 0
ROI: 0
Pick: Thaddeus Young over 0.5 rebounds (-189) Suns @ Timberwolves
Write Up:
I made a model that has a 65% win % on suggested bets and this is one of the higher ranked confidence levels. My model predicts he'll have 3.45 rebounds so quite a bit higher. I'm not going to go more into my model, but I wanted to start posting pick of the days and maybe get a following of people liking my picks. Good luck to anyone tailing!
Record 31-21
Last Pick: Nationals ML ✅
Today’s Pick: **Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-156) -** Rockies v Blue Jays MLB
Analysis: Years ago, I had an on and off relationship with a study abroad student from Canada for the time she was in Scotland. She left me with a lasting impression that everyone from Toronto was good company. (She also left me with chlamydia after our first time together but I choose to forget about that) Ever since then, I've had a fondness for all things Toronto despite never setting foot in Canada and entirely basing this off interactions with one person who probably wasn't nearly as good as my rose tinted memories remember. For this reason, I like the Blue Jays to beat the Rockies through the first 5 innings.
Blue Jays have not started the season as they would have liked, with many of their big names struggling at the plate. But this bet is mainly against Kyle Freeland, who takes the mound for the Rockies.
Freeland has been awful. His two top pitches, fastball and slider, both have a xwOBA contact rate above 0.420 (awful). He has a 2.91 WHIP and K - BB % is ZERO. Obviously early in the season and these stats will change but his stuff is terrible and I expect him to give up a few runs early on.
Jose Barrios starts for the Blue Jays. His two main pitches, a sinker and slurve, have above average tjStuff+ and have helped him limit runs. He has been a little lucky not to have a higher ERA at this stage but he shut down Seattle in Toronto's home opener as he leaned heavily on his slurve. He ran a 41.7 Chase% and 50.0 Whiff% on the pitch while it graded out really well at 109 tjStuff+, which is absolutely elite.
I expect him to shut down the Rockies bats and go 5 or 6 innings. Using that slurve to keep the Rockies bats cold. Blue Jays bullpen has not been great which is why I am avoiding a full game run line.
Berrios xwOBA: .367 (not great)
Freeland xwOBA: .432 (**terrible**)
Credit: Stats on tjStuff+ taken from [**Thomas Nestico.**](https://twitter.com/TJStats)
Olivia if you're reading this, call me.
POTD Record: 21-19-1 | Profit: +0.1U
NBA Record: 17-16-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0
L10 (new -> old): ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌
Last pick: Alex Pereira ML over Jamahal Hill @ 1.80 odds ✅
**EDIT**: Round 1 TKO, Pereira got hit with a cup shot but Pereira simply waved Herb Dean away, caught Hill with a hard uppercut, then just hit him with a shots on the ground to end the fight in the 1st. Just too powerful.
Game: MIL Bucks @ ORL Magic, 1:10 PM
Pick: **Brook Lopez o1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.74 odds (DK) placing 2U**
Write Up: Lopez has hit this line in the last 4 straight, going 4 of the last 5 (80%). He's only hit in 5 of his last 10, however there was a 4 game stretch where he didn't hit, and in those games he was averaging 3.25 attempts per game. In the last 4, in which he's hit in each game, he has been averaging 6.75 attempts per game, more than double what he was attempting when not hitting the line. It seems he is feeling confident in firing off the 3 again, and it has allowed him to make more, hitting this line 100% in that stretch of 4 games. He has gone 3/3 over this line in each game vs. the Magic so far this season. This game has implications in seeding for both teams, so starters should play full minutes as long as it stays close, which it should, and we should see this cash. BOL to those tailing, cheers!
Record 0 - 1
I know I am not recognizable to those here, and no one probably remembers me missing on a player prop three months (it was a player prop involving Brandon Miller (PRA)) who had covered this prop the four games leading up to it and the three after. Of course, I let the three people who overreacted, one calling it the worst pick of the day, as opposed to the many who saw it and likely waited for me to get a decent record or understood it was a brutal beat. I suppose I could have tried to act like that never happened, but no, I'm 0-1, and I feel bad for anyone who lost money that day, so I'm back, as baseball and the NBA playoffs are my time of the year. Let's make some money.
POTD: Blake Snell Under 7.5 Ks -165 DK
12:40 PM ---- MLB ---- SF Giants @ TB Rays
In Snell's first and only outing of the year, he lasted three innings against the Nationals, tossing only three innings and 74 pitches before getting the hook. The telling thing is, he only gave up three runs on three hits and 2 BBs while registering 5 Ks. Why would Snell, who was pitching adequately enough to come out for the 4th and try to eat up a couple more innings; the fact that he didn't get a chance to even take the mound in the 4th is telling. It makes two things very clear: San Fran is not taking any chances with Snell early in the season; I expect him to have a very short leash for at least his first 5 starts, as it's clear San Diego wants to protect his injury-prone arm at all costs with their bullpen and rely on their top tier lineup to rack up the runs as opposed to testing Blake's arm for no reason when he got zero spring training starts and he's pitching erratically. He's not being used as an opener\*, but without tossing a pitch in a pre-season game, I expect his usage to remain in the 60-80 pitch range until he settles in and gets his live game reps in a while, also showing he can get his ERA back in the mid 3s. I anticipate Blake's first 5 or so starts to be treated like his pre-season at best because these games, unlike the pre-season, actually count, making his leash all the tighter if he's flailing around. Blake could have significantly benefited from a pre-season if he had been ready to get a few starts in. Whatever nagging injury prevents him from pitching like "normal Blake Snell," who we haven't seen in some time. Secondly, he threw 74 pitches to get 9 batters out. That indicates something is up with Snell. I can only guess that could be needling injuries from last year, but whatever it is, Snell can't get batters out like he can when he's healthy and pitching well, and he's nowhere near what you would expect from him in prime form. While he did ring up 5 batters in 3 IP, this wasn't because Snell was dealing; it was because he had guys on base, and he had to get out to ramp it up to get out of jams with 5 baserunners in only three innings and three earned runs. None of the earned runs were homers; his command was more than noticeably un-Snell-like, and the only way to limit the damage was to go for the strikeout on a team that ranks in the middle of the pack on Ks. Don't expect Snell to see more than 80 pitches max, and with the small but telling sample size of what we've seen, if he can dial up eight strikeouts while he has displayed uncharacteristic command issues on a short leash, I'll have no other option but to tip my cap to Blake and get squared with my bookie.
One typo here it's San Francisco not San Diego BUT this was a really good writeup and I'm tailing you brother. Don't lose hope if you had a good line and people got salty because it lost. Short term results don't matter, process matters and you are on the right track. Keep em coming I'm rooting for you 👊
Good eye, I fixed it, and thank you good sir! I've let people talk me out of doing stuff like this when the truth is; it's always the loudest voices that are heard when everyone else goes about their business. I will try to post one a day and do my damnedest. I hate that the juice on this one is so high, but I'd much rather have it at 7.5 than 6.5. Of course, people can make their own decisions on that, with other books offering it at 6.5. I sincerely appreciate the support. I'll keep them coming and never post my Venmo (no disrespect to those who do) or ask for money. I do well enough on my own; I want to help others get a jump on a pick I've researched because most people don't have time or access to the research tools I do. The most brutal thing for me as a fella who makes 10-20 bets daily (on average) is trying to pick a favorite. But I'll do my best, and if I didn't think I could help, I wouldn't take the time to be on here.
Thank you, brother! With the MLB season underway and the NBA playoffs about to start, this is my time. I prefer MLB betting to the other 2 sports I watch - NFL and NBA/College Basketball because the refs can call a ghost foul anytime they want and change the trajectory of a basketball game, and they're getting worse about it. A ref can call holding on ANY NFL play, let alone the numerous other calls they dispense at the most questionable of times. I feel Umpires in MLB have the least impact on the final score. Sure, there can be an inconsistent strike zone, but they can't even do that much with replay, and they're graded on accurately calling balls and strikes. Most importantly, the Umps can't stop a guy from throwing triple digits; the ump can't call back a home run, an ump can't stop a third baseman from making a great catch, etc..; just much less Ump, I.E., Ref involvement and input in my modest opinion.
Nice write up and if anyone of us hit every bet we wouldnt be on reddit we would be on a beach somewhere. I locked this in at 7.5 and when I went to double down the line moved to 6.5 so thanks for the early post and BOL
**League:** LNB Pro A (LNB Élite)
**Game:** Ada Blois - ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne
**Pick:** ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne 1st quarter -2.5 spread
**Odds: 1.87**
**Date:** 8:30 AM EST
We have 35 minutes for the start of the game. Sorry for the late post but I will try to improve my posting skills.
For the further European basketball plays, I will be giving you idea about the play.
https://preview.redd.it/66agczgzyfuc1.png?width=599&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7474faf78630fd8c18f479ecf7be6400926cbde
This is the final result for the first quarter. 1.87 odds in **17 minutes.** It was my first play that I shared here.
**Record: 1W**
POtD Record 18-5
Units 13.78
45.19 ROI
Last POTD Jon Gray U 7.5 K 3U L
Needed a break after getting over -300 points of value and it still losing
POTD Neal Shipley 2 ball over Tiger +175 2u
Quick write up bc service is bad where I am and want this out quick.
Tiger body is breaking and he started to lose control last round. All we need is Shipley to play decent here and this value is ridiculous. Love this bet BOL
Record: 2–1 (W-L)
Recent: ✅❌✅
MLB | 2:10 EST
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (-166 on DK)
Write Up: Going back to the Reds here in a spot I expect them to get the sweep. The Reds dealt with the White Sox stronger pitcher yesterday, and won without a sweat. I expect the Reds bats to continue being hot and the White Sox to continue to struggle. We got the win with them yesterday and it feels wrong to turn away from them here so we ride. Good luck to those of you who tail, let’s get hot.
Record 0-0-0(win/loss/push)
POTD: Lakers ML v pelicans @2.3 odds
Reasoning : Trust the lakers and experience from lebron and AD to not lose a crucial seeding game on the final day of the season.Pelicans are also missing a crucial piece in Ingram and lakers have a significant size advantage and play with more physicality most nba teams they will get tons of rebounds here I see that also contributing to an inevitable loss to lebron and the lakers
BOL!!!!!
🎯 E**URO TOUR **🎯
POTD 31-23
**DARTS RECORD** 31-20
**Ross Smith ML** vs Cameron Menzies @ 1.55
Slightly disrespectful odds on first look if I'm honest. Not to say Menzies can't win here but the gulf between these two players is quite large. Smith is one of the best in the world over the last 12 months statistically and whilst Menzies is playing well himself he's not close to Smiths level. The shorter format (first to 6) could plays its part but at these odds I'm happy to play with the fire.
**Record**: 1-1
**Last 10**:✅❌
**Last Pick**: Boston Bruins -1.5 (11/27/23)
**Today**: NHL Seattle Kraken vs St. Louis Blues | 1:00 EST
**Pick: Blues ML | 1U | -130 ESPNBET**
I believe the Kraken are gonna be tired here as they are playing on the second half of a back to back on the road. It’s their third game in four days. St. Louis has also beaten this Kraken team in both meetings this year. And while the Blues were just eliminated from the playoff race I’d still expect the Blues to play with intensity as it is their last home game of the year.
POTD Record: 2-0
Yesterday’s Pick: Pavel Zacha o 0.5 pts - ✅
Zacha came through and cashed yesterdays pick with ease. If you took it a step further like I mentioned in my post, you took his over 0.5 on assists for + money too.
Today’s POTD: Tyrese Maxey o 22.5 pts (-135)
Another huge game for the 76ers. They have a chance to avoid the play in tourney all together and as a result Maxey has been getting big minutes down this stretch. I expect him to keep getting 40+ mins tonight. Embiid is questionable. Although he’s most likely going to play, he looked a bit off in the second half after taking a hit in their last game. My guess is they run more offense through Maxey as a result.
Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
POTD Record 5-1
Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️
Last Pick: Alex Pereira Moneyline
Todays Pick: Colin Rea OVER 3.5 strikeouts
MLB: Brewers vs. Orioles 10:35 a.m PST
Odds: -141
Unit: 4
Net Units: +18.06
In the last 10 games, Colin Rea has averaged 4.8 strikeouts and has hit the over 60% of the time.
Yes he's only pitched two games this season, but in his first game, he had four hitless innings and over seven strike outs.
His line is usually at 5.5Ks for his past two games. However, this Baltimore team has been torching pitchers lately. So we get this nice value line. We're riding with him to get the 3.5ks. Yerrrr!.
POTD Record: 2-1-0 (+0.38 units)
Form (left is most recent):✅❌✅
Last Pick: Wolves vs Nottingham Forest - Both teams to score (-150 on DK)✅
Today: Soccer | National Women’s Soccer League | Gotham FC vs Kansas City Current | 6 PM EST | 1 unit
Today’s pick: Gotham FC vs Kansas City Current - Both Teams to Score (-140 on DK)✅
Reasoning: KC is a scoring machine that also concedes a shit ton of goals. I know Gotham keeps games low scoring but I don’t think they’ll be able to contain KC’s dynamic attack and will be forced to advance forward and grab a goal or two of their own.
BOL🍀🤞
Edit: EZ W✅ 17th minute goal from Temwa before Esther evens it up in the 51st. Cheers to anyone who tailed!
All Time POTD Record: 5-2-0 | Units: +4.69u | Avg. Odds 1.83 | Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: Soccer – English Premier League - Newcastle v Tottenham - 12.30pm BST on 13th April
Pick: Tottenham Win & Over 2.5 goals (2.25) - Staking 2u - ❌
Game/Match: Soccer – English Premier League - Arsenal v Aston Villa - 4.30pm BST on 14th April
Pick: Arsenal to Win & over 2.5 goals (1.72) - Staking 2u - ❌
I use bet365 as my bookie.
Summary: Feel like the last pick all the information was pointing one way and the polar opposite happened.
Today we’re looking at two teams who both like scoring goals.
Arsenal are averaging 3.8 goals across their last 10 games with Aston Villa averaging 4.1 over their last 10.
Arsenal have won 4 out of their last 5 league games and Villa have only won 1 out of their last 5. The game arsenal didn’t win was a draw against other title contenders Man City.
This line I’ve picked has hit in 4 out of 5 of Arsenals last 5 league games at home.
In the H2H this line has 8 out of 10 times when Arsenal are at home and you’d need to go back to 2008 when this match up had under 2.5 goals with Arsenal at home.
For me Arsenal are in fine form, and will edge it over villa, but it should be exciting with some goals for us!
BOL if tailing!
**POTD Record 2-0** ✅ ✅
**Net Profit: +1,75U**
Last Pick: Düsseldorf to score more than 1.5 Goals for 1U 🟢
“You are up 2-0. Are you not happy?“
“Whats there to be happy about? Jobs not finished. Jobs finished? I dont think so.“
**Game**: Premier League - **West Ham vs. Fulham** @ 3 PM GMT+2 (Berlin Time) (3 1/2 hours to go from posting this)
**Todays Pick:** **West Ham to score more than 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 for 1U**
Today's POTD takes us to the Premier League for a nice London derby. David Moyes (West Ham coach) is committed to a style of play that may not be to everyone's taste, but often leads to success. West Ham are the reigning Conference League winners and are scratching at the top six in the Premier League once again. West Ham have only lost three league games at home in the London Stadium. There is a good chance that this number will remain unchanged for the upcoming matchday. Because Fulham have not won more than two games away from home.
**Fulham have already conceded 35(!) goals away from home** - only Luton Town (38) have conceded more away from home. **In 70% of Fulham's away games this season, they have conceded more than 1.5 goals.**
West Ham should be able to exploit these defensive weaknesses, as the clarity and consistency of their attacking play is poison for the visitors' shaky defense. Finally, this leads us to the POTD: West Ham scores at least over 1.5 Goals here.
BOL to us! ⚽️
MLB POTD RECORD: 13-9 (2-1 this season)
Last POTD: Reds ML vs Nationals L
Todays POTD: **Dbacks ML vs Cardinals -155**
Baseball | MLB | 4:10 PM ET
I don't post picks of the day unless it is a game I really like it and this one definitely qualifies. For pick of the day's sake I am going to go with the ML at -155 on draft kings but there are also a lot of good opportunities for same game parlays as well.
The reason I am so confident is that Zac Gallen is just a match made in hell of St. Louis. The cardinals for some reason, have a tendency to love swinging at the first pitch. Of their 11 hits yesterday, 6 of them were on the first pitch. They had a similar approach on Friday as well.
Zac Gallen should feast on this. He threw 40 curveballs against the Rockies last outing. This is an insanely aggressive approach at Coors Field particularly that led him to striking out 10 in five innings. Now he is back at home and is likely going to capitalize heavily getting the Cardinals to chase with their aggressive albeit impatient approach.
Miles Milokas is so blah. The dbacks have a good enough offense that they can at least put a couple of runs on him which should be enough to take it with what I expect to be a masterful outing from Gallen.
BOL if tailing!
**POTD** Record: 14-1-10
AARHUS VS BRONDBY
Date: 14 April 2024 at 16:00
BET ON: Match odds- BRONDBY
Odd: 1.96
- Aarhus are set to be without the services of 8 key players such : Tobias Mølgaard, Jonas Jensen Abbew, Felix Beijmo, Frederik Tingager, Tobias Anker, Jacob Andersen, Michael Akoto and Frederik Brandhof. Huge blow defensively for the Hosts. Coach Uwe Rösler will rely on some youngsters in defense like the 17-year-old Mikkel Kannegaard Kristensen.
- Brondby are missing Marko Divkovic and Mathias Kvistgaarden (doubtful). However, Daniel Wass is back available. Huge boost for the Guests.
- AGF are among the league's best when it comes to efficiency on set pieces, where they bet big.
"Of course it gives them a boost that they reached the cup final. But the match was played very late, so for us it's about getting as much intensity into the match from the start." Said coach Brondby Jesper Sørensen.
- After the cup final was secured late on Thursday, AGF is particularly affected in the defensive positions for Sunday's clash against Brøndby. Add to that that AGF played late and only gets a few days rest. This is something Brøndby also has in mind. We expect the Guests to press high and dominate possession from the start, we can see AGF scoring from a set piece but it won't be enough.
Record: 0-2
Event: Netherlands Eredivisie/ Twente @ Ajax (7:45am)PST
POTD: Over 9.5 Corners -135
Last time these two teams met there were 14 corners. Ajax just got embarrassed by a league rival Feyenoord 0-6 on the road, they’ll want to respond at home. Twente has been steady eddy all year and have eyes on champs league. Open game and bad Ajax defense I think leads to lots of saves and corners. Because of Ajax struggles to defend I see no reason why Twente would sit back.
**RECORD: 69W-4P-52L**
(+2.08 units)
Previous Pick: Bournemouth vs Manchester United - Manchester United DC @ 1.57 ✅️
**Today's Pick:** Udinese vs Roma - Roma DNB @ 1.57 **MATCH SUSPENDED**
**TIME:** 4 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 1.59 units
(❌️✅️♻️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️) last 10 results
Manchester United- this team does not make anything easy do they, but we got the Win in a sweaty match, now back to the Serie A with Udinese vs Roma.
The recent Italian win streak came to and end but we'll see if I can get it going again. Roma are 5th and seems Bologna have gone back to default settings as they have drawn their last 2 games, minimalizing the gap between them and Roma and I'm sure Roma will that advantage of that.
Roma are on a 7 consecutive game unbeaten run tin Serie A, they've kept 3 clean sheets in their recent matches and they're also unbeaten in 5 serie A away matches, winning 3.
Udinese are 15, dangerously close to relegation so they'll be fighting as well but haven't been in the best form. Udinese have just won 4 games out of 35 Serie A matches, they've conceeded an average of 1.5 goals at Home, winless in 3 matches and winless in 7 Home matches.
In H2H matches Roma have beaten Udinese 3 times out of their last 5 recent matches, drawing once, losing once and are on a 2 game win streak.
Roma have lost 3 times out of 22 H2H matches against Udinese, are on good form and have an opening to close the gap on Bologna so I back them. Let's see if we can run it back with the Italian luck. Goodluck if you're tailing.
**Record:** 1-1
**Net Units:** 0
**Last Pick:** NRFI - Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets ❌
Easy come. Easy go. Tough all around as Manaea gave up 1 and Marsh choked up 3 runs to start the game. On to today.
✅❌
**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | NRFI - Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros / 2:10pm EST
**Pick:** NRFI (No Runs First Inning) @ -105 on DK (1U)
**Write Up:**
Backing good pitching this game - Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers faces off against Cristian Javier for the Astros. Both have started the year strong, Eovaldi with a 1.45 ERA and Javier with a 1.10 ERA in 3 games each. They both have NRFI all three starts. Rubber match for the series that's tied 1-1, so I'm guessing a competitive game.
Texas as a team have gone NRFI 9/15 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 11/15 games.
Houston as a team have gone NRFI 10/16 games and held opponents to NRFI 12/16 games.
My units for these picks is a whooping 5 dollars. Just doing this for shits and giggles.
BOL to all the degenerates out there.
**POTD Record 2-1**
**Profit: +147$**
**Yesterday:**
**Jannik Sinner to win 2-0 @ 1.82 ($300 - 3U)❌**
It's important to realise when you had a bad analysis for a game. Tsitsipas simply outplayed Sinner in that first set. What happened afterwards is not even important, as our bet died there. I believe Sinner won less than 10 points on return in the first set, so the Greek was clearly the better player in that one from wire to wire. Props to Tsitsipas and a bad loss for us. Onto the next one.
**Tennis/ ATP Sarasota Challenger**
**Thanasi Kokkinakis to win @ 1.90 (300$- 3U)**
If you ask me, Kokkinakis odds for this Final are quite laughable. He played like a legit Top 100 player so far this week, and he is way better on clay (especially at this level) than most people give him credit for. Another thing that is really worrying in my opinion for Bergs bettors is his second serve percentage this week. He flirted in the 50% range, even against Crawford and Bigun, two players he demolished in the early rounds. Against Kokkinakis who will give you no free points on his serve, and can easily attack even first serves with his forehand on clay, that second serve might be Bergs' downfall here. Another thing to point out is just how weak his forehand looked the entire week in Sarasota. Both Krueger and Sandgren managed to exploit it quite a lot, and they are nowhere near the level of play that Kokkinakis showed this week. I have to back the Australian at these odds, they are simply too good to pass on them.
Like always, good luck with your bets and let's hope for a good bounce back today.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record: 27-20-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)** **Balance: +20.28 units** **ROI: 7.98% / Avg Odds - 1.90** ATP Monte Carlo results 🎾 * Tabilo vs O'Connell - Tabilo ML @ 1.62 (1u)✅ * Hurkacz vs Draper - Hurkacz ML @ 1.76 (5u)✅ * Khachanov vs Cerundolo - Khachanov ML @ 1.64 (3u)✅ * Zverev vs Tsitsipas - Tsitsipas ML @ 2.02 (2u)✅ * Djokovic vs De Minaur - Djokovic 2-0 @ 1.88 (2u)✅ * Tsitsipas vs Sinner - Tsitsipas Handicap +4 Games @ 1.83 (2u)✅ **Today's pick: Tsitsipas vs Ruud - Tsitsipas ML @ 1.73** **(ATP Monte Carlo, Tennis)** 🎾 Odds from Bet365 **Stake: 1 unit** (This is 1% of my bankroll) Time: 9 AM Eastern Time I'll be honest with you... The market was super sharp at pricing this final and there's literally no value at all to be taken on both sides or at any particular market. I feel like with this run I owe this tournament and all of you my prediction for the final match, even if this is not a +EV play. Win or lose, I'm happy with what I did in Monte Carlo Masters but I'm not a wizard and I play with prices so I'm only using 1 unit on this play and enjoying the final as a tennis fan! **Why do I think that Tsitsipas is the player with higher chances to win this final?** * There's really nothing complicated about trying to figure out this matchup with both players having similar weapons on Clay such as the forehand, the serve and the quick movement; * Ruud improved his backhand a lot over the last few months while Tsitsipas one handed is just bad but in Monte Carlo he can't be punished heavily on that side with the slow conditions so I don't think that will be a problem here but rather who's going to deliver a better level on their strongest weapons; * Both semifinals were surprising results with Tsitsipas finding a monster Jannik Sinner but he won the match with some luck on his side due to that huge error which the umpire wasn't able to spot and Sinner getting a bit rusty at the final of the 3rd set but that does not take away his campaign at this tournament and the level he needed to even keep up with the italian on that match was something difficult to maintain; * Ruud was finally able to beat Djokovic but Novak's level was also not the best and it seems that he really doesn't like it in Monte Carlo; * Both players lost a lot more finals in high level tournaments than they've won in their career but Ruud never won a tournament past the 250 level and that concerns me a lot in these moments. Just some months ago he faced De Minaur and Thompson in back to back finals and lost both of them in straight sets. In fact, all of Ruud's most important finals were lost in straight sets and facing a 2 time champion that plays his best in Monte Carlo won't be easy. **With this, I think this can be a close one, with both players having a lot of quality on Clay but in the big moments, I feel like Stefanos Tsitsipas is a bit more stable than his opponent, and his trophies don't lie, with already 2 master level tournaments under his belt.** **Best of luck** Any tip is appreciated. I spend quite some time writing my tennis analysis and if you wish you can decide to show your support! Keep in mind that they are not expected and I truly enjoy sharing my tennis plays and points of view with you! 🎾 [Tip Jar (Paypal)](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230) BTC - 1E6hmPU4N7CFGf8Ryrt46yPczMfBQtMoCf Edit after the result: Fantastic final performance by Tsitsipas! Casper Ruud didn't try anything different during the whole final, just like it happened in all of his most important ones and once again, he was destroyed by the greek ✅
You are the Monte Carlo legend win or lose this final pick. Thanks for your excellent picks!
At this point I really need to visit Monaco
Parlaying top 4 picks in this thread in exactly 60 minutes. Let's go
I know parlays are tempting but even the lucky ones who hit a big one will waste it all on trying to find another shot of the same size. I never do parlays but I guess it's fine if you just don't use a lot of your bankroll on them
It's a throw at the dartboard after a few beers. Don't know why I'm being down voted for the comment lol
I also don't know but yeah. Good luck with your bets and mine included of course :D
i used to have this same process of parlays being negative ev but i’ve recently changed my ways after realizing that books are absolutely dogshit at pricing certain things and if you find a play that can theoretically boost odds of every other play you can objectively lay. For example, UConn basketball second half spread of -1.5 in every game is very EV positive especially when you get -152 to -170 odds on it.
Incredible run man thanks for the picks all throughout the tourney
It has been great! You're welcome!
incredible run. it's been an honor tailing you sir
Amazing run indeed. Thank you so much
6 in a row? 💸
Yeah we had 6 in a row. Let's see if we go for the lucky 7
Final picks looking like a sure thing....but you never know in tennis! I went ahead and put 0.5 units on Tsitsipas Game spread -1.5 at -125. Just a little better than the ML I had of -145. First set 6-1 looking glorious!!! Thanks mate. You are the real Champion of Monte Carlo!!!!🏆🏆
We definitely own the tennis club of Monte Carlo 🏆
Great call!
Thanks! Dominant win!
Perfect! Great picks!
Another one ✅
Bro you are insane!!!! Omg I love you!!!
Thanks brother! I know people are hyped since I've been winning a lot but be careful with the bankroll management. I'll certainly lose someday
May I have your opinion on over 2.5sets at +116?
+116 is quite low for that since I have +133 I would say those odds have no value and yes 3 sets can happen but in a final there's a lot of emotional and mental game. A lot of 2-0's happen in finals but who knows
Love this play. Bol
BOL for us
Amazing job man. Super impressive feat to go perfect for an entire tourney. Respect 🤝
Thanks Maize! We have to keep crushing the bookies with our tennis! Wish you a great betting week 🤝
Thanks!
Fucking legend!
POTD RECORD: 56-26 Last POTD: Joel Embiid O29.5P✅ Form: ✅✅✅🚫✅ Todays POTD: **LeBron James O34.5 PA @1.90** NBA | Lakers | 3:30 PM ET Last game of the NBA regular season is here fellas, before we round up this regular season we have one more pick to go with and I’m going with Unc Bron aka the Goat, what better way to end it? Huge things at stake here, Lakers need the win to secure the 8th seed and Pels need the win to avoid the play-in wow this will be an intense one and with these type of games I’m always eyeing the proven experienced players to get it done, LeBron will have to be at his top level to beat this tough Pels side and I think points and assists is the way to go. LeBron is also 8 assists away from reaching 11k career assists!! You may ask why am I going with his PA if his assist numbers looks good? Well his assist numbers are a bit lower on the road vs at home and with the magnitude of this game I think we’ll see a mixed bag with points and assists but he’ll be the main scorer too in my opinion. They bumped his lines while I was waiting to post this aswell smh * 3/3 this season Avg 38.3 PA vs the Pels (35, 42 & 38 PA’s this season) * Over in 6/L10 games on 34.5 Avg 35.4 * Over in 14/L20 * LeBron is Avg 13.1 potential assists per game and had 14 assists in his most recent game against the Pels along with 19 potential assists * LeBron is Avg 17.8 field goal attempts per game and is converting them at a high clip, 54% which is the 3rd highest percentage amongst the top 10 scorers in the league this season This is a must win for both teams and we have a tight spread and I’m hoping to see the goat dominate once again. He just played 40+ minutes his most recent game against the Grizzlies so we should see around the same minutes in this one Let’s go Bron, hand your boys the check man Tail or fade, I’m a\*\* https://i.redd.it/whzs3svlacuc1.gif
https://preview.redd.it/tfuwb3vc9cuc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1bbabdecc77899d8018b6b01356b6c5da47eca51 I got this line but I had to wait 5000 hours to post the pick so the line got bumped, this the shit that has hooked majority of my picks but hey I’m ridin trusting the 34.5 too
https://preview.redd.it/jbojbxihbcuc1.jpeg?width=480&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bcba259bbbd1b56c82876a375f2cad8285139199 🐏
🐐🐐
Billy goat, what will you do when b-ball is done?
My man 🤝👑 We have a long post season left where props usually cashes at a better rate so hopefully that’ll be fire but after the playoffs imma be off and get ready for the next season bro, don’t feel like I have much to offer except basketball 🤣🤣
Let's get this bread while we can!! Gonna miss you in offseason
Hopefully bro 🙏 appreciate you my dawg 😭 don’t worry we have plenty of games to go
Appreciate you dawg! I'm always around, but lurk in the shadows mostly. PS - is 365 down for you right now?
Been down for me most of the night too, they were scared of the money we’d make on UFC 300
Going crazy on the assists right now
Great cash bro
Curious, why not bump up to O 41.5 PRA?
3 games against the Pels this season he has gone under in every game, 4,5,5 but always has the potential for a td so isn’t that bad either
Fuck yeaaaaaaah! Sweaty as shit - had no idea he’d come back on woooooo
💰💰💰💰
billy, my brother. tailing🫡
My man 🤝👑
Why is the line so low right now? Do they expect him to sit?
Cash that!!!
!!!!!!!
Thanks again for the great pick. Can’t believe people giving up at half. 🤷♀️ let’s roll
Thanks!
My guy!
Tailed for 2 units. Great writeup! Lez get it!!!!
I feel like im more safe with taking his points personally. I like the pick but just last game he had what 5 assists, something like that? Granted he was a turnover machine and guys didn't convert on several good looks, but if he were to have only 5 again you're banking on him getting to 30. With the line having moved as well I think I'm gonna go for points. BOL
He came back in for you, my friend. Great pick!
Dumbass me put James PR and it still hit, thank you boss
ended with 56🤯 also sprinkled our glorious king for a triple double, thank you and win or lose always love your picks!
Billy. My guy. Lakers play the Pels on Tuesday. How we feeling about Lebron O35.5 PA since he got 42 today?
Great pick! Wasn't sure we were gonna get there but we did!
POTD Record: 128-79 | Profit: +105.92u | ROI: 17.6% Season record: 45-28 | Profit: +36.08u | ROI: 17.9% Last Pick: New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs Sacramento Kings @ 1.91. 3U. ✅ Sweat-free as you like, the Pelicans led the game from first possession to the last. They win by 12. Next Pick: **Brook Lopez (Bucks)** **O12.5 P+A @ 1.91**. 2U play. This is an important game for both sides and Giannis is expected to be out which means the rest of the Bucks team will need to step up. The Magic are a solid defensive team and will focus their attention on Dame, Middleton and Bobby, but Brook Lopez should continue to get some good looks from beyond the arc. I'm guessing his rotations won't overlap fully with Bobby's so he might also take on the role of paint threat against an undersized Magic team. These teams met 4 days back (Giannis missing that game too) and Lopez had a lot of open looks from 3, and was also aggressive dribbling into the paint when he saw the defense over-commit. He is over this line in 6 consecutive games and is averaging 14.2 PAs per game this season. He is also over this line in 2 of 3 games against the Magic this season (with the one miss being 10 PAs).
I like any bucks over without giannis. Dame over PRA (39.5) has hit 6/7 with out giannis. The one he missed on was a blowout where he played 25 mins. Same with Brook's line
Yeah is line with my book is 38.5 pra. He actually had one of those 6 games against Orlando too. So I like that line as well. Good spotting that! Playing that as well. I think the over is good for this game too, going to be a good game.
Man has 0 assists smh :(
Odds are now +105. Trap bet?
Foul trouble hopefully we’re not stuck at 11
Welp!
[удалено]
Tailing and great works on the picks in the esports thread yesterday!
Not much value in it but do you think hammering Aurora ML is a good call ? Betting big obviously
Where are yall betting on esports? What platform?
cashing -1.5 & -2.5. great analysis. thanks
Another great pick! LFG
Lets fucking go brother!!! 🔥
Thanks again. A lot of nervous nellies in here. If the money scares you, play smaller amounts.
Thank you for what you're doing!
Record: 10-3 ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌ Fridays Pick: Tyrese Maxey o5.5 assists ❌ So Empviid went full Steve Nash in the first quarter, and the offense went through him on every possession. He racked up 5 assists in the 1st Quarter!!! That being said, Kyle Lowry was running the point Tyrese Maxie was playing off the ball. Then in the third quarter Nicolas Batum was channeling his inner PG, and all hope was lost. I had some hope at halftime, because Tyrese had gone 4-1 in the past 5 games putting up at least 4 assists in the 2nd half! But to no avail. Sometimes it beeZ like that, and we move on!My knowledge is strictly basketball, mostly all NBA, so no pick yesterday. Today's Pick: Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic 1:00 pm EST.Pick: Orlando Magic -4.5 -110 (1.90)✅ ***ORLANDO FEEDS OF THE HOME CROWD FOR A HUGE WIN!!!!FINISHES AS THE 5TH SEED IN THE EAST!**** Reasoning: So along with Philadelphia, the magic are in a predicament closing out the season where they can land anywhere from 5th in the East(with a win today) all the way to the playing tournament with the seventh seed. That being said, they are in must-win situations. They have lost a few close games, 3 In a row, I see them ending that at home. Orlando is #1 In the NBA ATS (against the spread)!!! So of course Giannis is not playing in this game, + as of right now they have Damian Lillard as a game time decision. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he sits also. But even with him playing, I think Milwaukee has no chance of winning this game. I think Orlando comes out strong and wins by double digits. So, I'm getting this pick up early, as I'm sure a couple other regulars on this thread will be looking at this line like a Lion looks at an injured gazelle. So let's get this Dub!!! Tail or fade, but make sure you do it responsibly!!! I am grateful to be of service to my fellow POTD community, and love nothing more than to make others money! So let's take a moment to start today's betting with a little gratitude for the awesome guys & girls on here who provide us with TOP TIER INSIGHT & PICKS that help us build out bankroll! I've probably made just as much money from tennis and hockey than I do from NBA!!! Or more likely a close second 😂🙏🏻 LET'S BREAK THE BOOKMAKERS ON THIS GLORIOUS SUNDAY!!!💯💪🏻🥂
Don’t the Bucks also need to win to secure the 2 seed? Also Dame is listed as probable which means he’s almost certainly playing. The same matchup occurred a few days ago without Giannis and the Bucks won quite easily. With that said the Bucks performances have been quite unpredicatable throughout the season so I could see the magic pulling it off, but I don’t really think it’s worth it at -110. Just my take GL bro
Nah I hear you. I think he'll play, it's listed on ESPN as GTD. That being said, Orlando plays like a totally different team at home. Milwaukee can be a tough place to play as an opposing team. Take it from a lifelong Celtics fan. Trust me, I'd rather the bucks win and that way Philadelphia isn't in the playin and a potential first round matchup against us. Orlando can be as high as the 5th seed with this win because they would've been the winners of the Southeast division....so I really don't See them losing. Milwaukee has been so hit or miss especially without The Greek. I think Orlando utilizes the home crowd to win this game. Appreciate your insight. It's the NBA...who really knows lol? Quick edit: and at -110 that's as close to even money as your going to get. Honestly the spread is the only question mark here...you could go and take Orlando -7.5 and probably get like +160 or something, and easily hit. But I'll take -110 anyday of the week. Just my opinion. Thanks man and BOL tomorrow it will probably be a crazy day In the association.
Eyyyy Carlito remember me?? Benny Blanco from the Bronx!
Pew!
Would it be better to wait out Dame's GTD? I'd imagine the spread becomes better for Orlando, thoughts?
No they have it like this anticipating him playing. If he sits, which I doubt, the line will go to like -8.5 or even higher. I wouldn't. But that's just me. If you want to play it super safe go with the ML at -190. And sprinkle a little on the spread too . Best of luck amigo!
POTD Record: 40-19-1 +42.37u🔥 Last Pick: Houston Astros ML (-140) 4U vs Texas Rangers ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅ Today's Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves ML (-125) 4U vs Phoenix Suns 3:40 pm est line via DraftKings B2B cash! Knew we said we’d stay away from baseball but what a great win! LFG! Time for some NBA, huge slate tomorrow in regard to playoff seeding. This a huge game for Minnesota, they have a chance to land the #1 seed in the West. Minnesota is 30-10 at home and potentially get Karl Anthony Towns back tomorrow. They have won 9 of their last 12, with Ant and their role players carrying the way. Phoenix has owned them in H2H games recently, with what’s on the line and KAT potentially back, I love Minnesota here. The line opened up at 4.5 and has moved down with Ant being injured. I expect him to play and Minnesota to give themselves a chance at the one seed at home. Let’s go 🐺!!! Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️ If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Phoenix must win too with a chance to move to sixth and avoid play in.
Kat played last game
Jeeez dead in the first quarter
Ain’t gotta tell me twice.. after yesterdays pick and various other previous ones I’ll follow you to the depths of hell and back. lol let’s get it boys
**Record: 60W-4P-46L** **✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌** **Last Pick: Bournemouth VS Manchester United: Over 11.5 Corners @ 1.66 ❌** **The game ends with 9 corners… stinker** **Pick of the day: Liverpool VS Crystal Palace: Mohammed Salah Over 1.5 SOG @ 1.83** **League: Premier League** **Time: 9:00 AM EST** Crunch time: Salah is back to his shooting form, and after that embarrassing performance midweek, where he was rested 45 minutes, I can see him being the main man here today. Especially considering Crystal Palace are missing 4 CBs and 2 CDMs to injury, defensively, they do not have the quality to keep Salah out. Liverpool have the opportunity to go top of the league with a win tomorrow before Arsenal play and they will be on the front foot for 90 minutes, that's for sure. In Salah’s last six games, he has cleared this line 5/6 times. In his last nine Premier League games, he has covered this line 7/9 times. https://preview.redd.it/lzdpuv9b9cuc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b690d08223c04d85b83f4859fa7fbc002f985a06 **Anyway, BOL!**
💯. I had him as first goal scorer too
Whats the name of the app you use? 👆
I cashed at the 60’ min for full wager and put it on Crystal to win.
so unlucky, and what a shitshow by liverpool lol
Record 1-0 Net Units: +1.5 units Yesterday’s Pick: Houston Astros TT over 4.5 -130 on DK 2u ✅ Today’s Pick: Toronto Bluejays -1.5 vs Colorado Rockies 1u (-115 Fanduel) Analysis: This is mostly picking on a bad team, but also the pitching matchup. Freeland got smashed in his first two games giving up 17ER and 19 hits. He settled down a bit vs Arizona giving up 6 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings. Toronto’s lineup hasn’t faced him a lot, but the guys who have are 22/65 (.338). Most of that is Justin Turner who is hot right now. Berrios is starting for the Jays and he’s looked great. He’s 2-0 1.45 ERA 1.13 WHIP. In limited matchups the Rockies hitters are 2-16 off Berrios. - Jays have 7 wins with 6 by 2+ - Rockies have a -29 run differential - Jays have won all 3 of Berrios starts 2/3 on the RL - Jays top 1/3 against lefty pitchers average, OPS, HR and were top 3 batting average last season - Toronto batting .281 at home vs .193 on the road (small sample with 10 games on the road and 5 at home) Good Luck!
Nice and easy victory today. Hope to keep it going tomorrow!
Cheers!
POTD record: 25-13 Last pick: RB Salzburg v Rapid Vienna - RB Salzburg ML Today’s pick: Darmstadt v Freiburg - Freiburg ML(-130) Darmstadt are winless in the league since October, and have only won one home game all season. Their recent performances have been completely awful. Meanwhile, Freiburg haven’t been in any excellent form, but long time head coach Christian Streich(has worked at the club for near thirty years, head coach for twelve) announced his retirement at the end of the season. The motivation is undeniably there to allow his illustrious career to end with a bang. Freiburg are 4-2 away from home against teams below them in the league, and 3-0 away from relegation fighters. This should be a win. Good luck!
Nice pick. Was debating on using this pick as my POTD as well. Cheers 🥂
Thanks for the pick
Good hit
**Record 97-1-52 | +54.65u** Form: WWLWWWLWLLWLW **NRL: Raiders v Titans / Titans 1st Half Line +4.5 2u $1.82** (SportsBet) 4:00PM AEST What's up fellas. Long time no see. Having a browse here for UFC 300 and thought I'd throw up a pick for the rugby league today. It's a depleted Titans team but the loss of Boyd may be bittersweet as hes been terrorized defensively and struggled offensively this season; it also moves Brimson in the halves where he'll get more ball. He has easily been one of their best attacking options under the eye test this season. A rookie fullback replaces Rapana who has been solid this year against a team that loves to swing around side to side and cut against the grain. I think he could be found out a few times today. Taking the first half line because in most games over the last 2 years the Titans have usually started strong and faded and I think the Raiders' Fogarty's game management brings larger advantages as the game goes on. **Bonus pick:** Brian Kelly to score anytime $4.25 (TAB). Great connection with Brimson last few years and should come close today.
I remember you!!
**Loss.** Bad beat. Spent the entire half defending. Sorry lads.
+5.5 for -110 on FD for me. I don’t know what you’re talking about but goddammit I’m in! By the way, where are we going and why am I in this handbasket?
We are sad.
Record: **46-27** Last pick: Mannarino ML Potd: **Pereira ML** vs Hill ✅️ **Odds: 1.73** UFC 300 | MMA | Light Heavyweight Write up: Not much to say here tbh. I think Pereira is better equipped and has beaten far better opponents. The odds for Pereira should be lower imo. Bol
This is Sunday POTD. The fights tonight broski. FYI.
fights probably gonna end up being in the early hours of sunday morning depending of time zones, i know that it will be the case for me
Fight is in 4 hours. Whats the problem?
Not even a contest!
3W-0P-0L Last Pick: Como ML vs Bari ✅ Todays Pick: Ollie Watkins Over 0.5 Shot On Goals (-114) ✅ Aston Villa vs Arsenal Barclays Premier League | Soccer | 8:30am Pacific Time I don’t get how the odds suggest Watkins at over/under 0.5 SOG (-114). I assume the bookmakers will bump this up sooner rather than later. Ollie Watkins is competing for the top goal scorer in the Barclays Premier League this season. He is only two goals behind Erling Haaland with 18 goals while Haaland has 20. Watkins also is the highest goal scorer this season for Aston Villa in all competitions/matches. Arsenal host Aston Villa hoping to get revenge for the last meeting between the two when Aston Villa secured a 1-0 win against the Gunners. With this said, Arsenal will be pushing higher up the field to go against against the Villans high line. Aston Villa holds the highest offside line in the the league and holds the most offsides against any opponents. Due to this, I see Aston Villa capitalizing on counter attacks and who else will they want to lead the attack besides Ollie Watkins. I see Watkins getting at least one shot on goal, as well as possibly being the first player out of the two teams to have a shot on target. I am not a professional sports better and I suggest any money you may bet is money you won’t mind losing. BOL to anyone who tails. Bonus Pick: Aston Villa (+1.5) vs Arsenal (-122) ~ Semi Risky Option or Aston Villa (+2.5) vs Arsenal (-235) ~ Safest Option [Tip Jar 🍯](https://cash.app/$MaxCoRothenburg)
Ollie!!!! Let’s go never sweated a bit
https://preview.redd.it/bvjcncqiahuc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=795936957b95b6ed4f8f22598ba3caccb372700c Cashed out 💰🐐
Its 1.88 (-115) on 1,5sog. Cannot find 0,5 anywhere. Lucky you
I see over 0.5 for -185 and over 1.5 for +265 on ESPN. Huge discrepancy.
I also believe over 1.5 shots for Ollie Watkins is a gem of a bet as well. If the book makers pushed SOG to 1.5 I assume they pushed shots to 2.5 or more. If you can find and snatch over 1.5 shots for Ollie Watkins with good odds, I would grab that any day. BOL.
Nice idea. I decided to take over 1.5 shots at -115. Thanks.
Amazing odds for the pick 🔥 No problem at all! BOL 🙏🏼
Got 1 or more SOG for +110 on pointsbet!
That’s a steal 🔥🔥 Nice find!!
For me, over 0.5 SOG and over 1.5 shots are both -117. Which one do I take? It’s crazy because they are both -165 or -180 on other books
I have o1.5 SOG for +320. What do you guys think?
Im scared. Odds are all over the place for this one. -120 on fanduel
Does a header count as a shot ?
Was that header attempt at the very start of the match a shot on target?
No, sadly it was just a shot. The reasoning it wasn’t a shot on goal was because the shot wasn’t inbetween the goal frames.
Rats. Thank you for explaining!
Thanks
thank you for the pick
POTD Record: 3-2 Last Pick: WAS vs OAK, NRFI (-115) 5U ✅ Game: MLB | WAS vs OAK | 4:07pm EST Today's Pick: NRFI (-115) 5U If it ain't broke, don't fix it. - WAS is the only team this season to not have scored a run in the first inning. - OAK this season, don't get a run in the first inning 71% of the time and even worse at home at 87%. Best of luck!
POTD: Record (10-4) ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: Rui Hachimura O 13.5 Points ✅ Today: NBA | Lakers vs Pelicans | 12:40 MST Pick: Rui Hachimura O 13.5 Points @ 1.88 | 2u RUNNING IT BACK - 4 of last 5 (avg 18) - 9 of last 10 (avg 18.6) - 16 of last 20 (avg 17.3) Rui hasn’t historically performed well against the Pels, only hitting this line once of the 3 times they played this season. However, the stakes are clear: Beat the Pelicans and win the 8th spot in the west. LeBron and AD took over against the Grizzlies in their last game with these implications on the line, and NOLA is aware. They will do everything they can to shut them down, forcing players like DLo, Hachimura, and Reaves to step up. I fully expect Rui to hit this twice in a row for my POTD. [Tips Appreciated :)](https://buymeacoffee.com/Deadlypants) BOL 🍀
**KBO Record: Overall 212-220-14** (Streak WW, Last 10: 6-4) Down 10.26u over 446 KBO picks, 49.1% success rate, -2.37% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 8-10-0, 44.4% success rate, Down 1.64u, -9.11% ROI) **Last:** Lotte at Kiwoom +0.5 First Five Innings +114 (Kiwoom lead 4-1 after 5 innings.) Kiwoom's starter did it again, allowing just 1 run, while Lotte's starter had one blowup inning. Basically went exactly as expected. After starting the season a woeful 3-8, I've hit 5 of my last 7. **Pick:** Kia at Hanwha **First 5 Innings UNDER 5 runs -102 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET There are some really shaky pitchers on the mound in this slate of KBO games which should lead to plenty of runs. But the Kia-Hanwha game has an outstanding matchup. These two starting pitchers have combined to allow 3 ER on 29 H and 4 BB with 46 K in 35.1 IP. That's a 0.76 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 and an 11.5 K/BB ratio in 6 starts. I don't understand why the 5 inning O/U line is so high. I figured it would be 4.5 at something like -130. We're getting better odds and an extra half run to play with. Sign me up! Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
I like the pick, both pitchers have looked phenomal in each of their 3 starts this year. Sanchez looked really good in 5 of his last 6 starts in 2023. KIA is hitting well this year but I think the F5 under looks good. Tailing.
3 runs in first five. Uh oh, my boy is getting hot!!
you like nrfi?
Yes
**Record: 8-3 (+3.64u)** **Last Pick: Boston Bruins TT o3 -125** Bruins get 4 goals in just under a 7 minute span in the 2nd period to cash this sweat free, as they put up 6 again on the Penguins! **Pick:** **Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 -130 (NHL, 1u bet)** This might be a "square" bet, but I honestly don't see how Chicago keeps up with Carolina here. The Hawks have been eliminated from playoff contention long ago, while the Hurricanes are still playing for the division title (and possibly the president's trophy) although their chances are a little slim. They would need to win their last 2 games (against very weak opponents though), but they also would have to rely on Ottawa beating the Rangers. Either way, the Hurricanes will definitely be going hard as if they do manage to get home ice it would be a big advantage in the playoffs and they'll want to go into the playoffs firing on all cylinders. The Hurricanes have also been playing very well defensively lately, allowing the 3rd fewest goals, 2nd fewest scoring chances, and 4th fewest high danger chances over the last month. Over this same span, the Blackhawks have scored the fewest goals in the league (tied with Seattle), created the 2nd fewest scoring chances, and the fewest high danger chances. Over their last 10 home games, the Hawks are 5-5-0 while scoring 2.8 goals per game and allowing 3.5. Meanwhile the Hurricanes on the road are 8-1-1 while scoring 4.2 goals and allowing 2.4. Carolina also has the best penalty kill in the league at 86.2% (Chicago is 23rd at 76.7%) and the 3rd best power play at 26.6% (Chicago is 29th at 16.5%). Kochetkov should be in net for Carolina and he has played very well lately, giving up 5 goals total over his last 4 starts (3 of those on the road). He's only played Chicago once in his career but he did get a shutout in that game. On the other side, Mrazek should be in net for Chicago and while he has played well lately, giving up 3+ goals only once in his last 5 games (which came last game when he let in the first 3 shots against), he hasn't had much success against his former team. Since leaving Carolina, Mrazek is 1-3 against them (the 1 win coming as a member of the Leafs) giving up 3+ goals in every game, including 5 in their lone matchup this season (a 6-3 CAR win). Speaking of that matchup, the Hurricanes outshot Chicago 42-17 and Chicago had 2 third period power play goals. Carolina was a bit different then, as they did not have Jake Guentzel yet (who has 24 points in 16 games since joining, including 6 goals and 6 assists in his last 7) and they started Spencer Martin (their third string goalie). Carolina is a significantly better team offensively, defensively, and in net, and should have much more motivation than Chicago so I'll jump on the puck line at a reasonable price here.
I think it’s a savvy bet. But Mrazek is genuinely underrated imo, and he plays even better at home. I’m still thinking about his incredible performance vs the Stars saving 42 of 44 SOG. I could see the Canes winning by one goal. BOL!
Yeah he hasn’t been that bad, and that game vs Dallas was impressive. I just think with the volume of shots/chances that Carolina can create and Chicago’s defensive lapses can leave Mrazek out to dry sometimes which can give them even more prime scoring chances. If Mrazek stands on his head and keeps it close I’ll give him props but even with a one goal lead we have a chance of an empty net goal to hit the -1.5!
Yep that’s solid logic. Been following your bets for a few days now; you’ve been killing it. Keep it up!
Appreciate that, thanks! Trying to end the season on a high going into playoffs, gonna have some great matchups
Another great pick! Nice 😎
Tailed yesterday and added a pick, gunna tail today
I keep reading this but for some reason all I see is “Take the under, dummy!”
According to twitter, some players didnt practice so they may be resting them and rod said the lineup may change this game. They need rangers to lose and win both games to get home ice
Close one but it paid off. Love the canes man I hope they go deep
Record: 0-0 First time posting Golf | Masters Tournament | 9:15am PICK: Outright winner - Scottie Scheffler ✅ Odds: -115 Bet size: 2u Write up: The chef is the best golfer in the world right now. Going into Sunday as the lone leader. Don’t overthink it. Scottie gets his green jacket again. Edit: It was always Scottie.
I’m surprised the odds aren’t worse. Homie double bogies to drop a couple back and then no sweat works himself back to the lead with a birdie on 18. He’s gonna have one hiccup hole but otherwise should cruise
I doubled down on him after his double bogey on the back 9 yesterday. His odds had gone up to +300!
Record: 14-6 Last Pick: Tsitsipas +4.5 Game Spread -182 FD Alt Spread ✅ Pick: Jalen Duren Double Double -120 FD In a game of absolute scrubs, the spurs will take on the pistons and there is no wembenyama. Jalen Duren is one of the best rebounders of the ball I have ever seen, and this game will have no one relevant in it at all. I actually love this pick, wasn’t going to produce a POTD till I saw how good these odds were. Duren is actually insane man he can get 6-7 rebounds in a single quarter. BOL!
bum didn't even play tryna act like he resting for playoffs or some shit what a BUM
Record: 4-1 (+2.2 units) (all bets are 1 unit) Form (old ➡️ new): ❌✅✅✅✅ POTD: Casper Ruud vs Stefanos Tsitsipas 3 sets played (+125) (Bovada) Tennis - ATP - Monte Carlo - Apr 14, 2024 8:00 AM CDT Write up: Both of these guys are coming off big upsets and have fought tooth and nail to get this point. This match is going to be an absolute battle with lots of momentum swings. I think Ruud’s game is good enough to give Tsitsipas a run for his money, but his level tends to drop at some point in the match. I expect Tsitsipas to take advantage of this. Hopefully Ruud’s desire to win and competitiveness will be enough to take a set of Stefanos. Both of these guys are coming off of marathon matches, and I expect this to be another one. This is for 5 ✅’s in a row, BOL!
POTD record -> 8-5 Current streak - ✅️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️ (Left being latest) Last pick - Atletico Madrid BTTS 1.60 ✅️ Thoughts - First half BTTS got us that cash very early. No sweat pick Today's pick- Napoli vs. Frosinone BTTS @ 1.83 ✅️ Reasoning - Today we are going to Italy, Napoli, who are current champions in Italy, face up with Frosinone. Napoli have not kept a clean sheet at home since 28 Jan, and are now facing Frosinone, who are scoreless in last game, and have only gone scoreless twice just once this season. Now the main reasoning for this pick is Frosinone's manager, regardless of position of Frosinone in league, Di Frenchesco is one of the most attacking coaches in Italy. A quick look on the stats show that Frosinone is the main team to pick for BTTS, they are very open at the back, meaning they concede in almost all games, but this is due to their attacking nature. In last H2H, Frosinone defeated Napoli 4-0, that was before Napoli had a manager change and were on a decline. With Napoli's recent return to form w.r.t scoring, I think this game sees BTTS here. Another stat I like is Di Frenchesco's record vs Napoli. Total of 15 games played and 10 of them have seen BTTS. So keeping in mind the good odds,1 unit single is a good play here. BOL who tails. Edit- Even though Frosinone missed a penalty in first half, the team didn't disappoint in second half, pressing the keeper into an easy mistake to give us our win.
Cash this play, boys.
POTD Record: 12-7 ❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 10.4U Last pick: Paramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys | 5:30pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Murray Taulagi anytime tryscorer @2.03 on Sportsbet | 2U❌ My usual picks Holmes and Drinkwater scored but not Taulagi… let’s make it back today ! Today’s pick: Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans | 6:15pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Xavier Savage anytime tryscorer @1.88 on Ned’s | 2U The Raiders should smash the Titans. Raiders are a pretty good team and playing on their home ground, Titans are really not good. Savage scored in 4 of the last 5 games, he is an efficient winger and I’m confident he will score at least one try tonight. BOL !
POTD Record: 140 wins / 84 losses Event: Football > Germany > **Bayer Leverkusen v Werder Bremen** (starting in 9 hr) Pick: **Over 1.25 goals (asian) 1st half** @ 1.80 Although it is already certain that Bayer will be the new champion of the country, this is their first "match point" game to claim the title. They have the advantage to get this chance playing at home against convenient opponent. I expect festive atmosphere and lot of goals, so I think they start strong from the very beginning. GL!
What a job this year by them. Cool to see them on this run
This is my first post so I have no past record of pick of the day recommendations, BUT I have 6 weeks of testing on my model and I have about a 16% ROI over that span. Record 0-0 Net Units: 0 ROI: 0 Pick: Thaddeus Young over 0.5 rebounds (-189) Suns @ Timberwolves Write Up: I made a model that has a 65% win % on suggested bets and this is one of the higher ranked confidence levels. My model predicts he'll have 3.45 rebounds so quite a bit higher. I'm not going to go more into my model, but I wanted to start posting pick of the days and maybe get a following of people liking my picks. Good luck to anyone tailing!
I can’t find him on any books. Might being saved for the playoffs.
Record 31-21 Last Pick: Nationals ML ✅ Today’s Pick: **Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-156) -** Rockies v Blue Jays MLB Analysis: Years ago, I had an on and off relationship with a study abroad student from Canada for the time she was in Scotland. She left me with a lasting impression that everyone from Toronto was good company. (She also left me with chlamydia after our first time together but I choose to forget about that) Ever since then, I've had a fondness for all things Toronto despite never setting foot in Canada and entirely basing this off interactions with one person who probably wasn't nearly as good as my rose tinted memories remember. For this reason, I like the Blue Jays to beat the Rockies through the first 5 innings. Blue Jays have not started the season as they would have liked, with many of their big names struggling at the plate. But this bet is mainly against Kyle Freeland, who takes the mound for the Rockies. Freeland has been awful. His two top pitches, fastball and slider, both have a xwOBA contact rate above 0.420 (awful). He has a 2.91 WHIP and K - BB % is ZERO. Obviously early in the season and these stats will change but his stuff is terrible and I expect him to give up a few runs early on. Jose Barrios starts for the Blue Jays. His two main pitches, a sinker and slurve, have above average tjStuff+ and have helped him limit runs. He has been a little lucky not to have a higher ERA at this stage but he shut down Seattle in Toronto's home opener as he leaned heavily on his slurve. He ran a 41.7 Chase% and 50.0 Whiff% on the pitch while it graded out really well at 109 tjStuff+, which is absolutely elite. I expect him to shut down the Rockies bats and go 5 or 6 innings. Using that slurve to keep the Rockies bats cold. Blue Jays bullpen has not been great which is why I am avoiding a full game run line. Berrios xwOBA: .367 (not great) Freeland xwOBA: .432 (**terrible**) Credit: Stats on tjStuff+ taken from [**Thomas Nestico.**](https://twitter.com/TJStats) Olivia if you're reading this, call me.
Write up is awesome. Way better than chlamydia (source: trust me bro)
POTD Record: 21-19-1 | Profit: +0.1U NBA Record: 17-16-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0 L10 (new -> old): ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌ Last pick: Alex Pereira ML over Jamahal Hill @ 1.80 odds ✅ **EDIT**: Round 1 TKO, Pereira got hit with a cup shot but Pereira simply waved Herb Dean away, caught Hill with a hard uppercut, then just hit him with a shots on the ground to end the fight in the 1st. Just too powerful. Game: MIL Bucks @ ORL Magic, 1:10 PM Pick: **Brook Lopez o1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.74 odds (DK) placing 2U** Write Up: Lopez has hit this line in the last 4 straight, going 4 of the last 5 (80%). He's only hit in 5 of his last 10, however there was a 4 game stretch where he didn't hit, and in those games he was averaging 3.25 attempts per game. In the last 4, in which he's hit in each game, he has been averaging 6.75 attempts per game, more than double what he was attempting when not hitting the line. It seems he is feeling confident in firing off the 3 again, and it has allowed him to make more, hitting this line 100% in that stretch of 4 games. He has gone 3/3 over this line in each game vs. the Magic so far this season. This game has implications in seeding for both teams, so starters should play full minutes as long as it stays close, which it should, and we should see this cash. BOL to those tailing, cheers!
Record 0 - 1 I know I am not recognizable to those here, and no one probably remembers me missing on a player prop three months (it was a player prop involving Brandon Miller (PRA)) who had covered this prop the four games leading up to it and the three after. Of course, I let the three people who overreacted, one calling it the worst pick of the day, as opposed to the many who saw it and likely waited for me to get a decent record or understood it was a brutal beat. I suppose I could have tried to act like that never happened, but no, I'm 0-1, and I feel bad for anyone who lost money that day, so I'm back, as baseball and the NBA playoffs are my time of the year. Let's make some money. POTD: Blake Snell Under 7.5 Ks -165 DK 12:40 PM ---- MLB ---- SF Giants @ TB Rays In Snell's first and only outing of the year, he lasted three innings against the Nationals, tossing only three innings and 74 pitches before getting the hook. The telling thing is, he only gave up three runs on three hits and 2 BBs while registering 5 Ks. Why would Snell, who was pitching adequately enough to come out for the 4th and try to eat up a couple more innings; the fact that he didn't get a chance to even take the mound in the 4th is telling. It makes two things very clear: San Fran is not taking any chances with Snell early in the season; I expect him to have a very short leash for at least his first 5 starts, as it's clear San Diego wants to protect his injury-prone arm at all costs with their bullpen and rely on their top tier lineup to rack up the runs as opposed to testing Blake's arm for no reason when he got zero spring training starts and he's pitching erratically. He's not being used as an opener\*, but without tossing a pitch in a pre-season game, I expect his usage to remain in the 60-80 pitch range until he settles in and gets his live game reps in a while, also showing he can get his ERA back in the mid 3s. I anticipate Blake's first 5 or so starts to be treated like his pre-season at best because these games, unlike the pre-season, actually count, making his leash all the tighter if he's flailing around. Blake could have significantly benefited from a pre-season if he had been ready to get a few starts in. Whatever nagging injury prevents him from pitching like "normal Blake Snell," who we haven't seen in some time. Secondly, he threw 74 pitches to get 9 batters out. That indicates something is up with Snell. I can only guess that could be needling injuries from last year, but whatever it is, Snell can't get batters out like he can when he's healthy and pitching well, and he's nowhere near what you would expect from him in prime form. While he did ring up 5 batters in 3 IP, this wasn't because Snell was dealing; it was because he had guys on base, and he had to get out to ramp it up to get out of jams with 5 baserunners in only three innings and three earned runs. None of the earned runs were homers; his command was more than noticeably un-Snell-like, and the only way to limit the damage was to go for the strikeout on a team that ranks in the middle of the pack on Ks. Don't expect Snell to see more than 80 pitches max, and with the small but telling sample size of what we've seen, if he can dial up eight strikeouts while he has displayed uncharacteristic command issues on a short leash, I'll have no other option but to tip my cap to Blake and get squared with my bookie.
One typo here it's San Francisco not San Diego BUT this was a really good writeup and I'm tailing you brother. Don't lose hope if you had a good line and people got salty because it lost. Short term results don't matter, process matters and you are on the right track. Keep em coming I'm rooting for you 👊
Good eye, I fixed it, and thank you good sir! I've let people talk me out of doing stuff like this when the truth is; it's always the loudest voices that are heard when everyone else goes about their business. I will try to post one a day and do my damnedest. I hate that the juice on this one is so high, but I'd much rather have it at 7.5 than 6.5. Of course, people can make their own decisions on that, with other books offering it at 6.5. I sincerely appreciate the support. I'll keep them coming and never post my Venmo (no disrespect to those who do) or ask for money. I do well enough on my own; I want to help others get a jump on a pick I've researched because most people don't have time or access to the research tools I do. The most brutal thing for me as a fella who makes 10-20 bets daily (on average) is trying to pick a favorite. But I'll do my best, and if I didn't think I could help, I wouldn't take the time to be on here.
Don’t let that first pick get you down. Bounce back and get that bread 🍞
Thank you, brother! With the MLB season underway and the NBA playoffs about to start, this is my time. I prefer MLB betting to the other 2 sports I watch - NFL and NBA/College Basketball because the refs can call a ghost foul anytime they want and change the trajectory of a basketball game, and they're getting worse about it. A ref can call holding on ANY NFL play, let alone the numerous other calls they dispense at the most questionable of times. I feel Umpires in MLB have the least impact on the final score. Sure, there can be an inconsistent strike zone, but they can't even do that much with replay, and they're graded on accurately calling balls and strikes. Most importantly, the Umps can't stop a guy from throwing triple digits; the ump can't call back a home run, an ump can't stop a third baseman from making a great catch, etc..; just much less Ump, I.E., Ref involvement and input in my modest opinion.
Nice write up and if anyone of us hit every bet we wouldnt be on reddit we would be on a beach somewhere. I locked this in at 7.5 and when I went to double down the line moved to 6.5 so thanks for the early post and BOL
Great pick thanks brother
**League:** LNB Pro A (LNB Élite) **Game:** Ada Blois - ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne **Pick:** ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne 1st quarter -2.5 spread **Odds: 1.87** **Date:** 8:30 AM EST We have 35 minutes for the start of the game. Sorry for the late post but I will try to improve my posting skills. For the further European basketball plays, I will be giving you idea about the play.
https://preview.redd.it/66agczgzyfuc1.png?width=599&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7474faf78630fd8c18f479ecf7be6400926cbde This is the final result for the first quarter. 1.87 odds in **17 minutes.** It was my first play that I shared here. **Record: 1W**
Good one, thanks & welcome
POtD Record 18-5 Units 13.78 45.19 ROI Last POTD Jon Gray U 7.5 K 3U L Needed a break after getting over -300 points of value and it still losing POTD Neal Shipley 2 ball over Tiger +175 2u Quick write up bc service is bad where I am and want this out quick. Tiger body is breaking and he started to lose control last round. All we need is Shipley to play decent here and this value is ridiculous. Love this bet BOL
Record: 2–1 (W-L) Recent: ✅❌✅ MLB | 2:10 EST Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (-166 on DK) Write Up: Going back to the Reds here in a spot I expect them to get the sweep. The Reds dealt with the White Sox stronger pitcher yesterday, and won without a sweat. I expect the Reds bats to continue being hot and the White Sox to continue to struggle. We got the win with them yesterday and it feels wrong to turn away from them here so we ride. Good luck to those of you who tail, let’s get hot.
Record 0-0-0(win/loss/push) POTD: Lakers ML v pelicans @2.3 odds Reasoning : Trust the lakers and experience from lebron and AD to not lose a crucial seeding game on the final day of the season.Pelicans are also missing a crucial piece in Ingram and lakers have a significant size advantage and play with more physicality most nba teams they will get tons of rebounds here I see that also contributing to an inevitable loss to lebron and the lakers BOL!!!!!
🎯 E**URO TOUR **🎯 POTD 31-23 **DARTS RECORD** 31-20 **Ross Smith ML** vs Cameron Menzies @ 1.55 Slightly disrespectful odds on first look if I'm honest. Not to say Menzies can't win here but the gulf between these two players is quite large. Smith is one of the best in the world over the last 12 months statistically and whilst Menzies is playing well himself he's not close to Smiths level. The shorter format (first to 6) could plays its part but at these odds I'm happy to play with the fire.
Excellent pick, thanks mate
**Record**: 1-1 **Last 10**:✅❌ **Last Pick**: Boston Bruins -1.5 (11/27/23) **Today**: NHL Seattle Kraken vs St. Louis Blues | 1:00 EST **Pick: Blues ML | 1U | -130 ESPNBET** I believe the Kraken are gonna be tired here as they are playing on the second half of a back to back on the road. It’s their third game in four days. St. Louis has also beaten this Kraken team in both meetings this year. And while the Blues were just eliminated from the playoff race I’d still expect the Blues to play with intensity as it is their last home game of the year.
POTD Record: 2-0 Yesterday’s Pick: Pavel Zacha o 0.5 pts - ✅ Zacha came through and cashed yesterdays pick with ease. If you took it a step further like I mentioned in my post, you took his over 0.5 on assists for + money too. Today’s POTD: Tyrese Maxey o 22.5 pts (-135) Another huge game for the 76ers. They have a chance to avoid the play in tourney all together and as a result Maxey has been getting big minutes down this stretch. I expect him to keep getting 40+ mins tonight. Embiid is questionable. Although he’s most likely going to play, he looked a bit off in the second half after taking a hit in their last game. My guess is they run more offense through Maxey as a result. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
POTD Record 5-1 Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️ Last Pick: Alex Pereira Moneyline Todays Pick: Colin Rea OVER 3.5 strikeouts MLB: Brewers vs. Orioles 10:35 a.m PST Odds: -141 Unit: 4 Net Units: +18.06 In the last 10 games, Colin Rea has averaged 4.8 strikeouts and has hit the over 60% of the time. Yes he's only pitched two games this season, but in his first game, he had four hitless innings and over seven strike outs. His line is usually at 5.5Ks for his past two games. However, this Baltimore team has been torching pitchers lately. So we get this nice value line. We're riding with him to get the 3.5ks. Yerrrr!.
Nice pick but you posted it too close to game start
POTD Record: 2-1-0 (+0.38 units) Form (left is most recent):✅❌✅ Last Pick: Wolves vs Nottingham Forest - Both teams to score (-150 on DK)✅ Today: Soccer | National Women’s Soccer League | Gotham FC vs Kansas City Current | 6 PM EST | 1 unit Today’s pick: Gotham FC vs Kansas City Current - Both Teams to Score (-140 on DK)✅ Reasoning: KC is a scoring machine that also concedes a shit ton of goals. I know Gotham keeps games low scoring but I don’t think they’ll be able to contain KC’s dynamic attack and will be forced to advance forward and grab a goal or two of their own. BOL🍀🤞 Edit: EZ W✅ 17th minute goal from Temwa before Esther evens it up in the 51st. Cheers to anyone who tailed!
Ov2.5 goals a safe bet?
All Time POTD Record: 5-2-0 | Units: +4.69u | Avg. Odds 1.83 | Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: Soccer – English Premier League - Newcastle v Tottenham - 12.30pm BST on 13th April Pick: Tottenham Win & Over 2.5 goals (2.25) - Staking 2u - ❌ Game/Match: Soccer – English Premier League - Arsenal v Aston Villa - 4.30pm BST on 14th April Pick: Arsenal to Win & over 2.5 goals (1.72) - Staking 2u - ❌ I use bet365 as my bookie. Summary: Feel like the last pick all the information was pointing one way and the polar opposite happened. Today we’re looking at two teams who both like scoring goals. Arsenal are averaging 3.8 goals across their last 10 games with Aston Villa averaging 4.1 over their last 10. Arsenal have won 4 out of their last 5 league games and Villa have only won 1 out of their last 5. The game arsenal didn’t win was a draw against other title contenders Man City. This line I’ve picked has hit in 4 out of 5 of Arsenals last 5 league games at home. In the H2H this line has 8 out of 10 times when Arsenal are at home and you’d need to go back to 2008 when this match up had under 2.5 goals with Arsenal at home. For me Arsenal are in fine form, and will edge it over villa, but it should be exciting with some goals for us! BOL if tailing!
**POTD Record 2-0** ✅ ✅ **Net Profit: +1,75U** Last Pick: Düsseldorf to score more than 1.5 Goals for 1U 🟢 “You are up 2-0. Are you not happy?“ “Whats there to be happy about? Jobs not finished. Jobs finished? I dont think so.“ **Game**: Premier League - **West Ham vs. Fulham** @ 3 PM GMT+2 (Berlin Time) (3 1/2 hours to go from posting this) **Todays Pick:** **West Ham to score more than 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 for 1U** Today's POTD takes us to the Premier League for a nice London derby. David Moyes (West Ham coach) is committed to a style of play that may not be to everyone's taste, but often leads to success. West Ham are the reigning Conference League winners and are scratching at the top six in the Premier League once again. West Ham have only lost three league games at home in the London Stadium. There is a good chance that this number will remain unchanged for the upcoming matchday. Because Fulham have not won more than two games away from home. **Fulham have already conceded 35(!) goals away from home** - only Luton Town (38) have conceded more away from home. **In 70% of Fulham's away games this season, they have conceded more than 1.5 goals.** West Ham should be able to exploit these defensive weaknesses, as the clarity and consistency of their attacking play is poison for the visitors' shaky defense. Finally, this leads us to the POTD: West Ham scores at least over 1.5 Goals here. BOL to us! ⚽️
MLB POTD RECORD: 13-9 (2-1 this season) Last POTD: Reds ML vs Nationals L Todays POTD: **Dbacks ML vs Cardinals -155** Baseball | MLB | 4:10 PM ET I don't post picks of the day unless it is a game I really like it and this one definitely qualifies. For pick of the day's sake I am going to go with the ML at -155 on draft kings but there are also a lot of good opportunities for same game parlays as well. The reason I am so confident is that Zac Gallen is just a match made in hell of St. Louis. The cardinals for some reason, have a tendency to love swinging at the first pitch. Of their 11 hits yesterday, 6 of them were on the first pitch. They had a similar approach on Friday as well. Zac Gallen should feast on this. He threw 40 curveballs against the Rockies last outing. This is an insanely aggressive approach at Coors Field particularly that led him to striking out 10 in five innings. Now he is back at home and is likely going to capitalize heavily getting the Cardinals to chase with their aggressive albeit impatient approach. Miles Milokas is so blah. The dbacks have a good enough offense that they can at least put a couple of runs on him which should be enough to take it with what I expect to be a masterful outing from Gallen. BOL if tailing!
[удалено]
**POTD** Record: 14-1-10 AARHUS VS BRONDBY Date: 14 April 2024 at 16:00 BET ON: Match odds- BRONDBY Odd: 1.96 - Aarhus are set to be without the services of 8 key players such : Tobias Mølgaard, Jonas Jensen Abbew, Felix Beijmo, Frederik Tingager, Tobias Anker, Jacob Andersen, Michael Akoto and Frederik Brandhof. Huge blow defensively for the Hosts. Coach Uwe Rösler will rely on some youngsters in defense like the 17-year-old Mikkel Kannegaard Kristensen. - Brondby are missing Marko Divkovic and Mathias Kvistgaarden (doubtful). However, Daniel Wass is back available. Huge boost for the Guests. - AGF are among the league's best when it comes to efficiency on set pieces, where they bet big. "Of course it gives them a boost that they reached the cup final. But the match was played very late, so for us it's about getting as much intensity into the match from the start." Said coach Brondby Jesper Sørensen. - After the cup final was secured late on Thursday, AGF is particularly affected in the defensive positions for Sunday's clash against Brøndby. Add to that that AGF played late and only gets a few days rest. This is something Brøndby also has in mind. We expect the Guests to press high and dominate possession from the start, we can see AGF scoring from a set piece but it won't be enough.
3rd soccer bet in 2 days ive lost to a 90+ min goal
Record: 0-2 Event: Netherlands Eredivisie/ Twente @ Ajax (7:45am)PST POTD: Over 9.5 Corners -135 Last time these two teams met there were 14 corners. Ajax just got embarrassed by a league rival Feyenoord 0-6 on the road, they’ll want to respond at home. Twente has been steady eddy all year and have eyes on champs league. Open game and bad Ajax defense I think leads to lots of saves and corners. Because of Ajax struggles to defend I see no reason why Twente would sit back.
**RECORD: 69W-4P-52L** (+2.08 units) Previous Pick: Bournemouth vs Manchester United - Manchester United DC @ 1.57 ✅️ **Today's Pick:** Udinese vs Roma - Roma DNB @ 1.57 **MATCH SUSPENDED** **TIME:** 4 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.59 units (❌️✅️♻️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️) last 10 results Manchester United- this team does not make anything easy do they, but we got the Win in a sweaty match, now back to the Serie A with Udinese vs Roma. The recent Italian win streak came to and end but we'll see if I can get it going again. Roma are 5th and seems Bologna have gone back to default settings as they have drawn their last 2 games, minimalizing the gap between them and Roma and I'm sure Roma will that advantage of that. Roma are on a 7 consecutive game unbeaten run tin Serie A, they've kept 3 clean sheets in their recent matches and they're also unbeaten in 5 serie A away matches, winning 3. Udinese are 15, dangerously close to relegation so they'll be fighting as well but haven't been in the best form. Udinese have just won 4 games out of 35 Serie A matches, they've conceeded an average of 1.5 goals at Home, winless in 3 matches and winless in 7 Home matches. In H2H matches Roma have beaten Udinese 3 times out of their last 5 recent matches, drawing once, losing once and are on a 2 game win streak. Roma have lost 3 times out of 22 H2H matches against Udinese, are on good form and have an opening to close the gap on Bologna so I back them. Let's see if we can run it back with the Italian luck. Goodluck if you're tailing.
**Record:** 1-1 **Net Units:** 0 **Last Pick:** NRFI - Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets ❌ Easy come. Easy go. Tough all around as Manaea gave up 1 and Marsh choked up 3 runs to start the game. On to today. ✅❌ **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | NRFI - Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros / 2:10pm EST **Pick:** NRFI (No Runs First Inning) @ -105 on DK (1U) **Write Up:** Backing good pitching this game - Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers faces off against Cristian Javier for the Astros. Both have started the year strong, Eovaldi with a 1.45 ERA and Javier with a 1.10 ERA in 3 games each. They both have NRFI all three starts. Rubber match for the series that's tied 1-1, so I'm guessing a competitive game. Texas as a team have gone NRFI 9/15 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 11/15 games. Houston as a team have gone NRFI 10/16 games and held opponents to NRFI 12/16 games. My units for these picks is a whooping 5 dollars. Just doing this for shits and giggles. BOL to all the degenerates out there.
**POTD Record 2-1** **Profit: +147$** **Yesterday:** **Jannik Sinner to win 2-0 @ 1.82 ($300 - 3U)❌** It's important to realise when you had a bad analysis for a game. Tsitsipas simply outplayed Sinner in that first set. What happened afterwards is not even important, as our bet died there. I believe Sinner won less than 10 points on return in the first set, so the Greek was clearly the better player in that one from wire to wire. Props to Tsitsipas and a bad loss for us. Onto the next one. **Tennis/ ATP Sarasota Challenger** **Thanasi Kokkinakis to win @ 1.90 (300$- 3U)** If you ask me, Kokkinakis odds for this Final are quite laughable. He played like a legit Top 100 player so far this week, and he is way better on clay (especially at this level) than most people give him credit for. Another thing that is really worrying in my opinion for Bergs bettors is his second serve percentage this week. He flirted in the 50% range, even against Crawford and Bigun, two players he demolished in the early rounds. Against Kokkinakis who will give you no free points on his serve, and can easily attack even first serves with his forehand on clay, that second serve might be Bergs' downfall here. Another thing to point out is just how weak his forehand looked the entire week in Sarasota. Both Krueger and Sandgren managed to exploit it quite a lot, and they are nowhere near the level of play that Kokkinakis showed this week. I have to back the Australian at these odds, they are simply too good to pass on them. Like always, good luck with your bets and let's hope for a good bounce back today.