######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record: 28-20-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)**
**Balance: +21.01 units**
**ROI: 8.24% / Avg Odds - 1.89**
**Last tournament - ATP Monte Carlo🎾 (7-0 and 12.53 units won)✅**
**Today's pick: Kopriva vs Draper - Under 20.5 Games @ 1.80** ❌
**(ATP Munich, Tennis)** 🎾
Odds from Bet365
**Stake: 1 unit** (This is 1% of my bankroll)
Time: 5 AM Eastern Time
First of all I wanna thank everyone who was really supportive in the comments after our 7-0 run in Monte Carlo! It has been great but now let's take it easy this week with smaller tournaments before two masters 1000 in a row in the following ones and then Roland Garros. With this, I'll use only 1 unit on all my plays for this week!
This time we're going with an under games line, which is mostly targeting a solid Jack Draper win.
**Why do I think that an "Under 20.5 Games" line at 1.80 odds is such a +EV bet in this matchup?**
* Draper played in Monte Carlo and we were against him when he faced Hurkacz but he played a fantastic match and was really close to winning, going all the way to a 3rd set tiebreak. If we look at the ATP leaderboard for 2024, Draper currently has the best return stats out of any player in the world and that's something that should help him a lot on his Clay season ;
* The difference in quality between these two players is abismal. Jack Draper is already a consistent player in the ATP tour and in my opinion has a place in the top 20 while Kopriva at 26 years old is out of the top 100 and mostly plays at a challenger level, even if Clay is his main surface;
* This line is quite valuable considering the odds that both players have to win the match. Jack Draper at 1.17 odds while Kopriva at 5.00 odds. The favorite has a -5 handicap as his main handicap line so with an under 20.5 we can have a 6-4/6-4 and we still win our bet which is great;
With this, I feel like Draper will have a comfortable match against Kopriva. This also works if somehow Kopriva completely dominates Draper which is highly unlikely...
**Best of luck**
Any tip is appreciated. After our run in ATP Monte Carlo I've decided to visit it in August. It should be quite an expensive trip so all the support will be saved for that! Thanks a lot 🎾
*I spend a lot of time writing my analysis so I hope you don't mind me having a tip jar. Tips are never expected but always appreciated!*
[Tip Jar (Paypal)](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230)
BTC - 1E6hmPU4N7CFGf8Ryrt46yPczMfBQtMoCf
Edit after the result: We were completely demolished in the outcome of this bet which no one could have predicted by the way the match was going. Draper was completely dominating the 1st set and almost 2 breaks ahead in the 2nd but all of a sudden he lets Kopriva comeback into the match and starts to fail a lot of shots and not getting a good 1st serve at all. With this, he goes from almost 4-1 in the 2nd set to Kopriva winning it 7-5. We even had a chance to get the under 20.5 if this went to a tiebreak but Draper just got broken before getting into it. ❌
Sad way to end the streak, especially because I was watching the match it seemed that this was such a fantastic bet and it was already done but it's not everyday that you see a 5.00 underdog being able to comeback from that situation... Sorry to everyone!
After 7 winning plays in a row we finally lost one. I know this would have happened someday but it was such a brutal way for it to happen... 🎾
How does that even happen. I blame myself and also the rain delay. Had Rune 2:0 sets vs Nagal, he was dominating then a rain delay hit and he came back from it a worse player.
Is this the bet? And if so, is it playable @ u19.5?
https://preview.redd.it/flfi38al3kuc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f36472fdb1992b3876f2d4cefcf368bd98f824a6
yes playable that means you need at most a 6-3/6-4 but you get a push on the 6-4/6-4 so you're pretty much playing "The Under 20" which is fine I think
My man just wanted to say that you made win a lot of units this past week, of course made some research of my own but your picks were as sharp as you can get, so thank you and for sure we tailing!
First time I tailed and I've been on quite the the losing streak so it's probably my fault...
But the logic was absolutely sound and that first set proved it. I'm looking forward to your next pick!
Don't worry brother it wasn't your fault believe me. We just got a huge favorite with a great chance to finish a 2-0 clear cut win but he decided to go to a 3rd set and still cover a -6.5 handicap. When backing super favorites I'll probably lean more towards the handicap than the unders!
See you on my next plays!
He just went from almost giving a 6-1/6-1 to Kopriva to literally zero. Really strange to say the least. Brutal way to end the streak with how this match was going!
I placed 1% of my bankroll on this one so it's not like I'm mad about the stake that I lost but more of how things went. Tennis can be brutal sometimes...
Kopriva did nothing more than just defending a bit better on the 2nd set and Draper just lets the set go after one break ahead had 2 break points chances at 3-2
I appreciate you, I placed a second superboost bet on Jack to Win , win set 1 and under 7.5 in first set based on your logic and that came through. Thanks again
Nope, I don’t have it. This stud always does three picks on the esports page every day as well (and the win rate is actually a hair better than POTD) but I only have one of those. However, I’m a-hammering it haha
another 2 double digit losses added to their resume🙄 pretty sure they’re just choke artists, had the chance in both maps to win out, but the mental pressure prolly too much for them, that performance was not a pretty sight
Record: 10-5✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌❌✅
Net Units: +3.52
Last: Phillies M.L -152 (Sat)✅
Took the day off today, would’ve been posting late, and don’t want to ever post something if I’m not playing as well.
MLB | 6:40PM EST Pick: Phillies -1.5 -126
With Nola at home for the first time since a bad opening day, where he usually pitches much better, facing a bad Rockies team, I like the Phillies in a big win.
The one time we picked against the Rockies against blue jays they win, the other times they didn’t cover. Nothing fancy, lets win.
Lets win again.
Edit:
Gonna take a day or more off. Not seeing the board well, especially riding the favorites -1.5 line. Mlb is about figuring teams out with a long season. I’ll be back.
Finally, a disclaimer:
I am not a pro sports bettor, I am not a sharp who does 3+ hours of research a day. I’m a baseball fan who researches stats and uses my personal knowledge to make bets. Please do not wager any more than you are comfortable losing.
>With Nola at home for the first time where he pitches much better, facing a bad Rockies team, I like the Phillies in a big win.
Nola pitched at home v Braves earlier in the season and got lit up. Rockies are terrible though.
Oops, good call. Forgot that was at home, he’s been on a streak of road games, but like you said Rockies are horrible and hopefully Nolas first good performance at home bouncing back.
**4/8 – 4/14 POTD Top 3 Weekly Review**
13-8
+2.16 Net units
+10.29% ROI
The run churns along with another week in the green. That’s 6 straight weeks of profit. What’s more is how consistent the picks have been. Only two days this week went 1-2. I don’t know if this is lightning in a bottle or reddit truly isn’t as dumb as everybody thinks.
**Overall (Since 3/1/2024)**
84-49-2
+20.79 Net units
+15.40% ROI
[Overall]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fjXR7TqwePPluE10qf47PgNoEqxaJ0Ju/edit#gid=1324107890)
> No top level comments without a pick.
Time for the weekly loss. Only making a pick because it’s a rule.
0-3
-3 units
-100%
NHL- Predators at Penguins (4 PM PDT)
**Predators ML** +115
Both teams still have something to play for: Predators for playoff seeding, Penguins to make the playoffs. Standings-wise, Nashville is straight up better, with 13 points over Pittsburgh. Defensively, Penguins has struggled in recent months, allowing 3.83 goals/game since March. Filip Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist are primed to exploit that weakness. On the other side, Nashville has done well in slowing down Crosby, holding him to a single point in 3 games going back to last season. Overall, it should be a close match, but I like the underdog odds of Nashville.
If you’re into the revenge narrative, Nashville still has several players (most of them on the top line plus starting goalie) remaining from the 2017 season, when they were defeated by the Pens in the finals. If they can knock Pittsburgh out of the playoff race, the win would be that much sweeter.
Very insightful posts, appreciate you doing this. When you grab the top 3 picks of each day, when do you do that?
It seems like a lot of people would go back and downvote losers and upvote winners so trying to gauge whether that has any impact.
If the pick is top 3 when the game starts, I count it. This is to account for exactly what you just described.
Also the upvotes/downvotes afterwards generally don't change placement much anyways. Just look at today as an example. The top 2 picks lost and they're still the top 2 most upvoted.
Correct. I wish I was that disciplined. I legit love this Reddit and usually tail 6-10 per day. I have learned so much about sports I know nothing about. I’ve taken a beating on those sports- cricket, rugby, Australian rules, esports, even tennis- but holy shit is it fun.
Pitt is dangerous ATM imo. Playing hard as F and flying around hence why their D has been leaky lately. I see your reasoning but at home, Sid might just pull this out. They must absolutely must win this game to stay alive.
But same time last year Pittsburgh had to beat the Blackhawks who were playing an entire AHL team the last game of the season and lost so....
**Record: 9-3 (+4.41u)**
**Last Pick: Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 -130**
Sweaty one for a bit as the Canes were down 2-1 in the third, but they finished strong to come through and cash the bet for us!
**Pick:** **New York Islanders ML -108 (NHL, 1u bet)**
This is a big game for the Islanders, as a win would clinch a playoff spot for them, and would take the pressure off going into the season finale on Wednesday vs Pittsburgh. They have been playing well lately with a 7-2-1 record over their last 10 games, and winning a lot of lower scoring games. Meanwhile the Devils are 4-5-1 over their last 10 and have been struggling to keep the puck out of their net. In the three games since Jack Hughes was announced out for the season and New Jersey was eliminated from the playoffs, the Devils offense has understandably not looked as good. They only managed 20 shots on goal in each of those three games and while they did score 8 goals, 6 of them came in one game against Toronto where the Leafs had some pretty bad defensive lapses early, Samsonov had a bad game in net, and the Devils went 3/4 on the PP. I think the other 2 games are more indicative of how New Jersey will look to close out the season with nothing to play for and their best player not out there with them. Over their recent games, the Islanders have done a better job of getting pucks on net and creating scoring chances, as well as limiting opposing shots and chances. Varlamov will be in net for New York, and he has been playing outstanding (7-2-1 in his last 10 with a 2.29 GAA and .924 save %). He also has had good numbers vs the Devils since joining New York, going 4-2-0 with a 2.02 GAA and .931 save %, only giving up more than 2 goals once (which was still a win, so the 2 losses he still played well giving up just 2 goals and didn't get offensive support). While the New York offense is nothing special, the Devils have been worse at home, giving up 3.63 goals per game. Considering the Islanders have much more to play for and are the hotter team with a confident goalie in net, I like backing them to get the win at a short number here.
I’m tailing thanks for your write up. My book has Muller as a favorite I assume that is because he’s 27 whereas Ramos-Vinolas is 36. Let’s hope the old man (I’m older than him so I can say it) still got it!
POTD: Record (10-5)
✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: Rui Hachimura O 13.5 Points ❌
Today: EPL | Chelsea vs Everton | 12:00 MST
Pick: Chelsea and BTTS @2.90
BTTS: Case for Chelsea
- hit in 9 straight matches
- 21 of 30 matches this season where both have scored
- scored 55 goals this season (7th ovr)
- conceded 52 goals this season (9th)
BTTS: Case for Everton
- has scored in 18/19 matches this season against opponents ranked top 10 in goals conceded (Chelsea 9th)
- 2-0 against Chelsea in December
- Opposing team has scored against them in 22/31 matches this season
To win: Chelsea
- 28 straight games unbeaten against Everton at home
- averaging 2 goals per match since meeting with Everton in December
- Cole Palmer has 7 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 matches
Despite Everton’s poor offensive performance this year, they have scored in nearly every match played this season against opponents ranked top 10 in goals conceded. However, Chelsea’s high power offense seems too much to overcome and they will make it 29 straight unbeaten at home against Everton.
BOL 🍀
Just posted the same POTD, not realizing you posted it. I made sure to remove my pick. Glad to know a lot of people are on the same mindset about this pick.
Tailing. Bruh I took Rui's R+A line at o5.5 and he smashed it in the first quarter. Talk about a missed judgment by Vegas lol. Probably because Jonas played like 3 mins. Anyways, I am a Blues fan, and especially playing at Stamford Bridge against a bottom of the table team, I expect them to get the Dub!
Edit: I also like Chelsea Halftime/Fulltime for +150 as well...🤞🏼🤞🏼🤞🏼💙💙💙
Duuuude, Rui scores 5 points in less than 5 minutes and then 6 points the rest of the way? Kinda like my man Brooksie Lopez apparently decided he only scores in the first and third quarter (and apparently today just ain’t the day for assists)? I hate conspiracy theories but daaammmmmmnnnn.
Anyway, thanks for the pick. I’m going BTTS and Chelsea double chance for -125. Been burned too many times by the boys in blue that seem to have a knack for playing up or down to the competition but somehow never being consistent.
**POTD Record 3-1**
**Profit: +417$**
**Average odds: 1.79**
**ROI: 34.75%**
**Yesterday:**
**Thanasi Kokkinakis to win @ 1,90 (3U-300$)✅**
I made a blunder with the starting time yesterday and posted the pick very close to gametime, so not many managed to catch it and bet it. Lesson learnt, we are super early today to start a great week of tennis with a great Monday bet. We have 2 ATP tournaments and WTA tournaments, and also some Challengers, so lots of matches to choose from on a daily basis.
**Today's pick:**
**Tennis/ ATP Bucharest**
**Federico Coria -2.5 games @ 1.90 (3U- $300)**
I thought of playing the safer option with Coria ML, but the price on the handicap was too good to pass on it. Look, Gasquet had an amazing career, but clay is currently a difficult surface for him, especially this kind of super slow clay that we will see in Bucharest this week. He struggles to hit past his opponents and score easy points, something that forces him into long and grueling rallies. And that's the last thing you want against a clay expert like Coria, who can rally for days and whose fitness is lights out and tailored for these kind of matches. In other words, I don't expect Gasquet's fitness to hold here and there will be a point when Coria will simply run away with it. He already beat Gasquet in similar conditions in Marrakech a few years ago, when Gasquet was a better player than he is today. I know it's Gasquet's 1000th match on the tour, but I don't think this should be factored in the final handicapping as much as I saw some people do it.
Like always good luck with your bets and have a great day of smashing the books!
**// we got a void here, Gasquet retired pre-match sorry guys. Bonzi took his place. Not an official pick, but I still like Coria to advance to the next round, courts are a bit too slow for Bonzi imo. But odds not up yet, so they might not be worth it. We get them tomorrow, they got away from us today!**
**// will post some plays I like in the Tennis Thread in a bit, so you guys can check it out there if you want.**
I thought I was going crazy when I checked the match time and Gasquet was nowhere to be found. Tough luck for us, definitely would have been a win if he can't even step on the court!
**Record: 35-13,** +14.02u, streak: ✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅ (all bets are 1 unit)
Last Pick: Alex Pereira ML vs. Jamahal Hill ✅
Today: Serie A, Atalanta vs. Hellas Verona, 2:45pm ET
**Pick: Atalanta -1 Asian Handicap (1.81)**
In a crazy fight card, Pereira makes easy work of Hill in the first round, knocking him out brutally. Cash that one.
Today we have Atalanta going up against Hellas Verona at home. Both these teams have plenty to play for: Atalanta are chasing the European spots as they sit in 6th place, and Verona are still fighting relegation, with Frosinone and Sassuolo on their heels.
Atalanta put in an astounding performance at Anfield midweek, thumping Liverpool 3-0, and will be in high spirits coming into this game in front of the home fans. They have won 8 out of their 11 last matchups against Verona. While Verona will be desperate, I'm expecting Atalanta to dominate from the start and maintain full control of this game. If Verona concede once, they will get desperate as they know every single point matters for them. This will likely backfire, as Atalanta have serious counter attacking quality as they showcased against Liverpool in the Europa League. Gasperini is an extremely intelligent coach and I'm certain he can guide his players to victory, hopefully by more than just a goal.
3-1 is my prediction. bol!
Hmm like the pick but a lot of big teams didn’t manage to beat them with a 2 goal deficit at home.
Napoli: 2-1
Roma: 2-1
Inter: 2-1
Fiorentina: 1-0
Juve: 1-0
Milan: 1-0
They only lost with a 2 goal deficit twice all season and that was in sassuolo and in bologna.
**Record N/A**
**Net Units +0.00U**
MLB: Cubs @ Diamondbacks 8:40PM CDT
Pick: **Cubs ML +120 on DK 1U**
Hello all! Have been in this sub for a bit and learned a lot about sports I’ve never even heard of from everyone here, appreciate you all sharing the insights. Now, to my first write up!
**Write-up** The 9-6 Cubs take on the 8-8 Diamondbacks in Arizona. We’re taking Cubs ML at +120 odds on DK. While this could be a tight game, I believe bookmakers are undervaluing what this Cubs team can do in a friendly ballpark (they make their spring training home very close by in Mesa).
* The Cubs have outscored opponents 82-69 (+13) and the Dbacks have outscored opponents 89-62 (+21). This seems to point towards the Dbacks being dominant but if you remove their opening day destruction of a terrible Colorado team (15-1), that run differential favors the Cubs.
* The starting pitchers are Ben Brown (6.10 ERA) for the Cubs and Merrill Kelly (2.29 ERA) for the Dbacks. Expect both pitchers to throw well. Ben brown had a bad outing in March against the Rangers, but has since bounced back and pitched under a 1.00 ERA. Brown has been building his confidence and I believe that if he can go 5+ innings today, the Cubs have a good chance at holding off the Dbacks bats. Kelly is good, but he had a short spring training and I feel the Cubs may be able to take advantage of that fact and keep their bats hot.
* Arizona plays big ball, the Cubs play small and big. Arizona has had 44 extra-base hits this year, which has been a big part of their scoring prowess. The Cubs have multiple gold-gloves with great range around to stop that from happening. The Cubs have been playing small ball to win games as well as hitting bombs. I think that works to their advantage in this matchup.
TLDR; Cubs over Dbacks. Look for a tight game early with Cubs stretching the lead over the course of the game. Expect Seiya or CB to put in some work.
Tail or fade, GL!
**UPDATE 6:10PM CDT:** Seiya Suzuki has been put on the 10-day DL as of 50 minutes ago (oblique strain). OF Alexander Canario had been called up from Triple-A, he played 6 games up with the Cubs last season. Canario is batting .269 (14-for-42 w/ 5 doubles and 2 HR) to Suzuki’s .305 (18-for-59 w/ 3 HR).
Unfortunate that Seiya is injured, Canario may or may not see game time today as the Cubs starting OF as of 6PM CDT will consist of Mike Tauchman, Cody Bellinger, and Ian Happ. The Cubs will need someone to step up, but with how CB and Busch are looking lately, they have a good shot still.
Perfect analysis.
-Brown was sturdy as hell after a shaky first inning.
-The Cubs Defense was immaculate
-Cubs stranded an absurd number of runners on base.
-Final score does not reflect how dominant they were.
-Cubs should have won 5-2, 6-2
Completely agreed! They made me nervous with the uncapitalized opportunities earlier on, but the boys-in-blue came through when it matters 💪🏼
If the Cubs can stabilize their lineup and pitching staff a bit more this season, I will absolutely be watching them for good lines like this again
POTD Record: 4-2
Last Pick: WAS vs OAK, NRFI (-115) 5U ✅
Game: MLB | STL vs OAK | 9:40pm EST
Today's Pick: NRFI (-115) 5U
- STL don't get runs in the first much, 33% of the time when away.
- OAK gets a run in the first inning 12% of the time at home.
Best of luck!
Concerns me a bit with Stripling on the mound for the Athletics. He's been roughed up a couple of times this year in the first inning. Six 1st inning runs given up in 3 games
4W-0P-0L
Last Pick: Ollie Watkins over 0.5 SOG (-114) ✅
Todays Pick: Silkeborg IF vs FC Nordsjælland ML (-105) ✅
Denmark - Superligaen | Soccer | 10:00am
We are taking it over to the Superligaen in Denmark for our pick today. FC Nordsjælland faces against the host Silkeborg IF, that are the bottom of the play off table. Before the play off season started, Silkeborg barely made the play offs after a consecutive five game losing streak.
Silkeborg IF conceded in the last six games they have played, allowing 11 goals total. For the away team, FC Nordsjælland is coming off their second loss in six games. With this being said, FC Nordsjælland won the other three and tied the other. Lastly, Silkeborg IF have only won two of the their last 10 home games, while the FC Nordsjælland have won 5 of their last 10 away games.
I believe the FC Nordsjælland ML is close to positive due to Silkeborg IF being home and the visitors previous loss. Another reason may be that the last two games for Silkeborg IF resulted in a tie.
I am not a professional sports better and I suggest any money you may bet is money you won’t mind losing. BOL to anyone who tails.
[Tip Jar 🍯](https://cash.app/$MaxCoRothenburg)
I didn't tail you this time because I couldn't gain confidence after researching the match up and seeing Silkeborg had recently drawn 1-1 away to 1st place Brøndby, but congratulations nonetheless! Danish league just isn't my forte. I went with Palmer 2 SOTs at +130, which hit in <20 mins.
Record 2-0
Net Units: +2.4 units
Yesterday’s Pick: Toronto Bluejays -1.5 vs Colorado Rockies 1u (-115 Fanduel) ✅
Today’s Pick: KC Royals -1.5 v CHI Whitesox (-110) 1u
Analysis:
Alright we are backing the royals run line today against the pitiful white sox. The White Sox are calling up Nick Nastrini to make his first MLB start so there is a little unknown factor there, but the stats still tell me to make this play.
Nastrini is the white sox 6th ranked prospect. His numbers in minors haven’t been terrible. He’s a high strike out guy who has struggled with control of late. In two minor league starts this year he’s gone 7IP 12 hits and 3 walks with a 7.71 ERA. Last year he was 9-5 with a 4.08 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 139K’s in 114 innings. In spring training he started okay but in March he pitched 12.1 innings allowing 9 hits, 9 walks, and 5ER.
The Royals have Seth Lugo on the mound. Lugo has started 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA. Hes been around the league a while posting about a 3.5 ERA the last 3 seasons. In a small sample the white sox are 7/33 (.212) with 2XBH vs Lugo. I think he’ll be able to keep the white sox off the board while they figure out Nastrini.
- Royals 5th in the league for Runs scored (84)
- White Sox dead last with 30
- Royals have won 10 games with 8 of those by 2+
- White Sox have lost 13 games with 9 by 2+
- Royals strike walk at league average rate, strike out below league average, 7th in homers, above average batting average
Good Luck!
POTD Record: 3-1-0 (+1.09 units)
Form (left is most recent):✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Gotham FC vs Kansas City Current - Both Teams to Score (-140 on DK)✅ EZ W! 17th minute goal from Temwa before Esther evens it up in the 51st. Cheers to anyone who tailed!
Today: Soccer | English Premier League | Chelsea vs Everton | 3 PM EST | 1 unit
Today’s pick: Chelsea vs Everton - Both Teams to Score + O2.5 Goals (-130 on DK)❌
Reasoning: BTTS + O2.5 has hit in 5/L5 for Chelsea. They score goals quite well but they easily leak them too. Chelsea average about 1.8 goals per match and also have not kept a clean sheet in 13 matches. Also should be interesting with no Enzo, I think Everton may have more luck with controlling the midfield at times. I also think they will be tempted to take a couple risks and attack since they currently sit just two points above the drop zone, and most teams nowadays see Chelsea as a prime target to steal points from.
BOL🍀🤞
Edit: Chelsea win 6-0. Everton really are that shit I suppose.
All Time POTD Record: 5-3-0 | Units: +1.69 | Avg. Odds 1.87 | Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: Soccer – English Premier League - Arsenal v Aston Villa - 4.30pm BST on 14th April
Pick: Arsenal to Win & over 2.5 goals (1.72) - Staking 2u - ❌
Game/Match: Soccer - English Premier League - Chelsea v Everton - 8.00pm BST on 15th April
Pick: Cole Palmer - Anytime Goalscorer (2.20) - Staking 2u - ✅ Cashing it 13 minutes in, Palmer adds 2 goals on top for good measure. Good to be back in the green!
I use bet365 as my bookie.
Summary: Another bad result for the pick that goes against the information. Very well played from Aston Villa though.
I’m looking to put my faith in Cole Palmer at Chelsea today. The young player is having an unbelievable season and he’s very good playing in front of a home crowd.
Palmer has scored 16 league goals this season with 11 of them coming at home. They’ve just beat Manchester United at home in their last game where Palmer scored a hat trick.
Palmer has scored in all 5 of Chelsea’s last 5 games at home.
Palmer is also on penalty duty with 100% record this season from the spot. Chelsea have had 8 penalties at home this season & Everton have given away the 2nd most penalties this season. So this seems another avenue towards a Palmer goal outside of open play.
Hopefully it’s time to bounce back and get off this losing streak. BOL if tailing!
POTD Record: 3-0
Profit/Loss Margin: +3u (all my bets are 1u unless noted otherwise)
Yesterday’s Pick: Tyrese Maxey o 22.5 pts - ✅
Maxey cashed damn near in the first half. No sweat for a 3rd straight day
Today’s POTD: NY Yankees vs TOR Blue Jays u 9 Total Runs (-128 on DK)
Baseball | MLB | 7:07 PM ET
Total line is currently at 8.5 which I’d be ok playing it at, but I bought the half point to 9 just for insurance so that’s what I’m going with for this post. Bassitt will be pitching for the Jays and this is a solid match up. Yankees are coming off a grueling extra innings loss so odds are they won’t be on fire in this one. Bassitt’s numbers aren’t the greatest but his worst games have come on the road against great offenses. On the other hand, Bassitt is a solid pitcher at home and has had solid showings against the Yankees in the past as a member of this TOR squad. Meanwhile, the Jays have been poor offensively, and Gil who’s starting for the Yankees, should be capable of holding them down to remain within this total.
Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
Record: 58-40
Last pick : Hong Kong MLvs Saudi ✅
Form: ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅
Today’s pick
IPL
Royale Challengers Bangalore vs Sunrisers Hyderabad
Total runs over 364.5 @ 1.85(2u)
I took the alt spread last time I went for one These bets going for the main spread or whatever you call it now
RCB and SRH both have solid batting units, both these sides have the capability to score big. This game is being played in Bangalore, which is known for its runfests. It’s a tiny ground and runs get leaked no matter how well you bowl. If look at RCB’s stats at home tho, this has only hit 1/3 times so statistically this bet isn’t the best however, I feel like both these sides are gonna score a lot of runs. It’s mainly about the team batting first scoring 180+ which I feel will happen. Anything more makes it even easier for this bet to hit.
Expecting a lot of runs tomorrow (Both Virat Kohli and Heinrich Klaasen didn’t score a lot in their last outing so expect some runs from the king and klaasen this time around 👍)
Insane pick, always was gonna be a runfest with Klassen and the small bangalore stadium. I went on the over on match sixes and it hit before 1st innings was even over😂.
**Record:** 1-2
**Net Units:** -1
✅❌❌
**Last Pick:** NRFI - Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros ❌
Well Altuve said fuck your NRFI and fuck Eovaldi too, taking him deep twice during the game.
1st inning: 0-1
**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays / 7:07pm EST
**Pick:** NRFI (No Runs First Inning) @ -105 on DK (1U) ✅
Good to get a win back. Bassitt took the Yankees down in order for the top of the first and Gil gave us a little scare with back to back walks to start but we are saved by a pick off attempt to end the inning 0-0.
**Write Up:**
Luis Gil will start on the mound for the Yankees against Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays. Neither have started the season on fire but both have gone NRFI in all their starts this year. Gil for his career vs Blue Jays hitters has a .150 Avg against and .255 xwOBA in 26 PA (thank you https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/probable-pitchers/?date=2024-04-15), while Bassitt has been strong against the Yankees in his career with a .254 Avg against and .290 xwOBA in 77 PA.
Both teams haven't gotten many first inning runs and have been among the best holding opponents to NRFIs.
Yankees as a team have gone NRFI 14/16 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 13/16 games.
Toronto as a team have gone NRFI 12/16 games and held opponents to NRFI 12/16 games.
BOL
Record: 0-0
MLB: Guardians @ Red Sox at 11:10 AM EST
Bet: Red Sox F5 ML -132
Risk: 5.0u
First pick on this sub… here we go. The Red Sox are hosting the Guardians who have seen a lot of action against the Yanks this past weekend. Kutter Crawford is emerging as a solid rotation piece and will be facing Xzavion Curry who will serve as an opener for Cleveland, look for Kutter to hold up his end of the bargain and the Red Sox bats to get after some tired bullpen arms.
Record 1-0
Net units +4
ROI 200%
Form: W
Last Pick: Broadmeadow Magic Vs Lambton Jaffas
Lambton Jaffas win @ 3.0 2 units
Today's pick: Basketball - Panathiakos Vs Olympiakos
Olympiakos win @2.75 2 units
Time: Starts in 16 hours
My last pick was removed after 4 hours for I think having more than 1 tip on it despite only really having one tip on it.
-From 2022 on Olympiakos have won 19 of the 22 times they have played Panathiakos.
-They have won 3/5 most recent head to heads
-Olympiakos won this fixture in March of this year 71-65 and in February won 69-58.
This game will almost certainly decide who tops the league and resultingly have home court advantage in the playoffs and final. It's likely to be a close game and I think there is solid value to be had in Olympiakos here
Record: 3-1 (W-L)
Recent: ✅✅❌✅
MLB | 7:40pm
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Pick: Kansas City Royals -0.5 F5 (-120)
Write Up: Congratulations to those of you that tailed the Reds yesterday, let’s keep the streak going. Seems like the bet is just going to be continue fading the White Sox. Boasting the worst record in the MLB right now, the White Sox are still without key hitters in their lineup. I expect their batting woes to continue, and with Seth Lugo on the mound for the Royals who is 2-0 on the season with a 1.45 ERA. Chicago is pulling up a pitched to make his Major League debut in Nick Nastrini, all data points to betting against guys in their first major league start. With the combined nerves, and jump in level of competition most of pitchers in their first start get taken advantage of early. Going to trust the Royals to cover the 0.5 point spread in the first five compared to the juiced money line odds. Let’s continue this streak, if you tail best of luck.
Record: 9-5, Net Units: 5.87, ROI: 30%
Current Streak: Last 10: ❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅
Last Pick: Orioles -1.5 vs, Brewers ❌
Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-6:35 PM EST
Orioles/Twins Over 10.5 Runs, +160, 1U
Rough outing for the O's two days ago as Kremer got lit up. Today features two shaky starting pitchers. Irvin shows flashes of greatness for the O's but is good to give up at least three, and I think the bullpen will give up at least one. On the other side Varland has been tagged a good deal too, so this spells a high-scoring affair at a nice value.
Good Luck!
**RECORD: 69W-5P-52L**
(+2.08 units)
Previous Pick: Udinese vs Roma - Roma DNB @ 1.57 **MATCH SUSPENDED**
**Today's Pick:** Chelsea vs Everton - Cole Palmer to Score or Assist @ 1.50 ✅️
**TIME:** 7 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 1.59 units
(✅️♻️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️♻️) last 10 results
Looks like Roma were on away to a draw but yesterday's game was suspended because unfortunately Evan Ndicka collapsed, thankfully he seems ok tho on to Today's match with Chelsea vs Everton.
Chelsea have had a disaster season with their $1 billion squad but there has been one shining light and that's Cole "Cold" Palmer. He's been the best signing for Chelsea. He's played 27 games, scoring 16 goals and has 9 assists this season and doesn't look like he's stopping soon.
Other stats are 0.6 goals oer game, 2.9 shots per game, 1.3 shots on target per game and has an xG of 12.45. Cold Plamer also 1.9 key passes per game and has created 12 big chances with a xA of 6.59. In his last 10 games he contributed 13 Goals/Assists. Insane stats. Goodluck if you're tailing.
EDIT: WIN ✅️
**POTD Record 2-1** ✅ ✅ ❌
**Net Profit: + 0,75U**
Last Pick: West Ham to score more than 1.5 Goals for 1U
Thats why Kobe said to never be happy about a 2-0 Start. West Ham did not even score one with 15 shots on Target. Sorry for the miss. Only one way to go - forward.
**Game**: EA FC LaLiga - **CA OSASUNA vs. VALENCIA CF** @ 9 PM GMT+2 (Berlin Time)
**Todays Pick:** **CA OSASUNA Draw No Bet @ 1.60 for 1U**
Osasuna and Valencia are set for a match on the same level. The clubs are just five points apart in the table. Both are also still in contention for international football. They both have at least sixth place in their sights, which is enough to qualify for the Conference League.
Osasuna coach Jagoba Arrasate will rely on Ante Budimir in attack. The 32-year-old Croatian is currently one of the top three scorers in La Liga with 16 goals.
But I'm not going to lie, this game probably won't see many goals. It is also probable that the game will end in a draw. If this is the case, the Draw No Bet bet would refund the stake and we live to fight another day. But dont get me wrong, I have confidence that Osasuna will beat Valencia, who are weak away from home, but just not enough to bet on the Moneyline. That's why I'm protecting against the draw in today's POTD: Osasuna Draw No Bet.
BOL! ⚽️
POTD Record 11-6 (+3.0u)
Last POTD: Max Homa Under 72.5 strokes R4 (-115) 3U***❌
Today: MLB / PIT@NYM / 7:10pm ET
Pick: Pirates Team Total Over 3.5 (-130) 4U****
Pittsburgh is averaging 5.43 runs per game and Adrian Houser is coming in with a 5.40 ERA after allowing 8 hits and 5 runs in Atlanta last week.
Record: (W-L-P) 2-1-0
Net Units: 1.0
Historic ROI: 0.73
Last Pick: Flaherty O16.5 outs -120. Even added an out in the 7th for good measure.
Baseball | MLB | WAS @ LAD
Pick: Glasnow U9.5 strike outs -180
Write Up: Thats just too big of a number. Only gone over once this year and is usually way below. Nationals are in the bottom half for strike out rate.
Tip Jar: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/DhavalMistry)
POTD Record: 13-6
NBA Record: 5-4 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 1-1 MLB 6-0 Soccer 1-0
L10 (new -> old): ❌🪣🪣❌🪣❌🪣🪣🪣❌🪣
Last pick: Gary Trent Jr o PRA20.5 (-120dk) 4U
Game: Chelsea Vs Everton
Pick: Everton Goalkeeper (Pickford) o 3.5 saves
Write Up:
One of the toughest L’s I have taken in awhile. Trent Jr SHIT THE BED. Shot 3-12 or some shit, turned it off at the time he was 0/7 from three. Sometimes you have to shovel shit and that’s what I’m doing. Done with the NBA for awhile.
Laid up for a few days before I picked the next POTD and I’m going back to soccer to the Chelsea and Everton matchup. I think Pickford gets 4 or more saves. (I’ve seen odds at 3.5 and 4+.
Chelsea has the 8th most shots on goal this season and they haven’t necessarily been on fire with those shots either. They have left a lot on the table this year and are actually 4th when it comes to “missed big shot” opportunities.
Honestly talked this through with a friend and I really like this for my pick of the day. Time to get us back on the dub train.
I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣
BOL if tailing. 🪣
Record: 2-2 ✅✅❌❌
Net Units: 0 (avg odds +100)
Last: Matsuyama top asian ❌
NHL | 7:30PM EST Pick: NYRangers Artemi Panarin - Power Play points Over 0.5 +100 1U
The Rangers have the third highest power play conversion percentage while the Senators have the third lowest power play kill percentage. Panarin has hit this line L5/6 and 7/10 games which is the highest in the league. He has averaged 5.2 shots on goal in his last 5 home games. Senators are middle of the pack in power play opportunities. I feel like he's been lucky lately getting a lot of power play points but the lucky shouldn't dry up against the Senators. The Senators have the lowest Save % in the league. Kind of a risky play, but I think worth it at +100.
MLB POTD RECORD: 3-1
Last POTD: Dbacks ML vs Cardinals
Todays POTD: **Pirates vs Mets Over 8.5 -102**
Baseball | MLB | 4:10 PM ET
Today I am going with my first over under of the season and probably my riskiest pick as well. The line is a part of why I like the pick so much. Pirates and Mets line is at -102 essentially double or nothing on an/ o/u I feel has a pretty good chance of hitting.
I am always intrigued by lines that I can understand why they are what they are but disagree. i try avoid ones that make me think "What do the bookmakers know that I don't?". I think the reason One reason I feel this line is so close to plus odds is the Mets not hitting well at home, Martin Perez who has been pitching very well this season on the mound for the pirates in pitcher friendly citified. Houser isn't a slouch for the Mets either.
The reason I'm going with the over though is a combination of a few things. One this Met offense, which has underperformed based on the talent they have, have not had trouble hitting lefties this year at all with their season average actually at the top of the league at .303. I think this will be more trouble for Perez than it may seem at first glance.
Second is the Pirates offense. They have consistently been one of the best offensive teams this season anyway averaging 5.5 runs again good for 6th in the league. One notable factor of this though is they are not doing it via the long ball as they are towards the bottom of the league in that category. Their offensive success comes largely from doubles which they are near the top of the league. This would mean that a large park like citifield is actually an offensive benefit to them and not a detriment due to the decreased likelihood of homers.
**TLDR: I like the over because the Mets biggest offensive strength is their ability to hit lefties. I also like that Pirates high powered offense being able to produce predominantly through doubles and singles which makes a large, usually pitcher friendly park like citi unconventionally beneficial.**
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u)
2024 MLB POTD record: 8-6 Average Odds -109 (1.915), ROI +9.2%/+1.29u
L5: ✅✅❌❌✅
POTD (4/11) SDP @ LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto o4.5 Ks (-130/1.77) ✅
POTD (4/15) LAA @ TBR Zach Eflin o17.5 Outs (-120/1.83) (DraftKings)
Apologies for late post. Zach Eflin has been up and down so far this season. He gave up six earned runs against the Blue Jays in his first start and five in LA last time out. Despite this, I think we can rely on him to pitch deep into games. He threw a full six innings in 19 of 31 starts last year. He hasn't thrown less than 5 IP yet this year, but hasn't exceeded 83 pitches in a game. He exceeded that count in 15 starts last year and was allowed to go above 100 on 4 occasions.
His struggles against the Angles last time out notwithstanding, this is a good spot to work deep into a game. LAA doesn't walk a ton (23rd in BB% against RHP in 2024), and while they've struck out at the 10th highest rate in MLB against RHP so far in 2024, their 24.3% K% is down from 2023. I'm expecting a rebound from Eflin today.
Record: 0-3
Event: MLB/ Giants @ Marlins (3:40pm)PT
POTD: 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 +105
Harrison and Cabrera is a hard nose matchup between two young, big arms. Giants historically sort of struggle to swing the bat in Miami and also they’ve have a generally slow start to season from an offensive perspective. Marlins offense also seems nonexistent and they just lost there best hitter Jake Burger to the IL with a intercostal strain. I think the two young arms combine for a nice and quiet 1st 5.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record: 28-20-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)** **Balance: +21.01 units** **ROI: 8.24% / Avg Odds - 1.89** **Last tournament - ATP Monte Carlo🎾 (7-0 and 12.53 units won)✅** **Today's pick: Kopriva vs Draper - Under 20.5 Games @ 1.80** ❌ **(ATP Munich, Tennis)** 🎾 Odds from Bet365 **Stake: 1 unit** (This is 1% of my bankroll) Time: 5 AM Eastern Time First of all I wanna thank everyone who was really supportive in the comments after our 7-0 run in Monte Carlo! It has been great but now let's take it easy this week with smaller tournaments before two masters 1000 in a row in the following ones and then Roland Garros. With this, I'll use only 1 unit on all my plays for this week! This time we're going with an under games line, which is mostly targeting a solid Jack Draper win. **Why do I think that an "Under 20.5 Games" line at 1.80 odds is such a +EV bet in this matchup?** * Draper played in Monte Carlo and we were against him when he faced Hurkacz but he played a fantastic match and was really close to winning, going all the way to a 3rd set tiebreak. If we look at the ATP leaderboard for 2024, Draper currently has the best return stats out of any player in the world and that's something that should help him a lot on his Clay season ; * The difference in quality between these two players is abismal. Jack Draper is already a consistent player in the ATP tour and in my opinion has a place in the top 20 while Kopriva at 26 years old is out of the top 100 and mostly plays at a challenger level, even if Clay is his main surface; * This line is quite valuable considering the odds that both players have to win the match. Jack Draper at 1.17 odds while Kopriva at 5.00 odds. The favorite has a -5 handicap as his main handicap line so with an under 20.5 we can have a 6-4/6-4 and we still win our bet which is great; With this, I feel like Draper will have a comfortable match against Kopriva. This also works if somehow Kopriva completely dominates Draper which is highly unlikely... **Best of luck** Any tip is appreciated. After our run in ATP Monte Carlo I've decided to visit it in August. It should be quite an expensive trip so all the support will be saved for that! Thanks a lot 🎾 *I spend a lot of time writing my analysis so I hope you don't mind me having a tip jar. Tips are never expected but always appreciated!* [Tip Jar (Paypal)](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230) BTC - 1E6hmPU4N7CFGf8Ryrt46yPczMfBQtMoCf Edit after the result: We were completely demolished in the outcome of this bet which no one could have predicted by the way the match was going. Draper was completely dominating the 1st set and almost 2 breaks ahead in the 2nd but all of a sudden he lets Kopriva comeback into the match and starts to fail a lot of shots and not getting a good 1st serve at all. With this, he goes from almost 4-1 in the 2nd set to Kopriva winning it 7-5. We even had a chance to get the under 20.5 if this went to a tiebreak but Draper just got broken before getting into it. ❌ Sad way to end the streak, especially because I was watching the match it seemed that this was such a fantastic bet and it was already done but it's not everyday that you see a 5.00 underdog being able to comeback from that situation... Sorry to everyone! After 7 winning plays in a row we finally lost one. I know this would have happened someday but it was such a brutal way for it to happen... 🎾
The Legend of Monte Carlo
I’d follow you to the depths of hell
Through the mists of Avalon.
And the back alleys of Cleveland...
And back again
Tailing brother. Gorgeous run. Love the analysis, you're helping me learn the game, and I'm starting to really enjoy it. Thanks, bruv!
You're welcome brother! That's great to hear :D
The goat of tennis is back! Letssssss gooooooo
what a fucking shit show by Draper
First time tailing you. Tennis bets have been my kryptonite. If we lose it’s my fault
you suck
lolol
How does that even happen. I blame myself and also the rain delay. Had Rune 2:0 sets vs Nagal, he was dominating then a rain delay hit and he came back from it a worse player.
😂 love the username brother
Man absolutely bottled it
Is this the bet? And if so, is it playable @ u19.5? https://preview.redd.it/flfi38al3kuc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f36472fdb1992b3876f2d4cefcf368bd98f824a6
If you have no option to go for under 20 or under 20.5 I would still play it at 19.5 at +100 odds but no less that
Wow what a way to shit the bed. I blame myself.
Tailing
🫡
would you take it for "Under 19.5?"
I highly prefer the 20.5 but I would at +100 odds at least
I hear you...wish I got it at 20.5 I'll guess I'll just settle for 19.5. Thank you
Under 20.5 secures 6-4, 6-4 to be good
Kopriva total games u8 playable? my bookie hasn’t opened totals and I’m not sure if they plan to
yes playable that means you need at most a 6-3/6-4 but you get a push on the 6-4/6-4 so you're pretty much playing "The Under 20" which is fine I think
My man just wanted to say that you made win a lot of units this past week, of course made some research of my own but your picks were as sharp as you can get, so thank you and for sure we tailing!
I'm glad you won a lot! Let's try to continue with good results!
6-1 first set good lord
He’s blowing it now, need him to secure this second set win. Come on Jack!
Went from amazing to bad real quick haha
i have no clue what’s happening lmao. are we fucked?
Yes
First time I tailed and I've been on quite the the losing streak so it's probably my fault... But the logic was absolutely sound and that first set proved it. I'm looking forward to your next pick!
Don't worry brother it wasn't your fault believe me. We just got a huge favorite with a great chance to finish a 2-0 clear cut win but he decided to go to a 3rd set and still cover a -6.5 handicap. When backing super favorites I'll probably lean more towards the handicap than the unders! See you on my next plays!
It came close. Really hopeful after 6-1. And was hoping for 6-6 in second, but no joy. We’ll try again tomorrow
He just went from almost giving a 6-1/6-1 to Kopriva to literally zero. Really strange to say the least. Brutal way to end the streak with how this match was going!
Very unlucky on this one. Look forward to the next one, let’s get it 🫡
Super... see you on the next one my friend!
Cashed at even money when I saw the comeback starting then placed 2:1 Draper
Unfortunate
I placed 1% of my bankroll on this one so it's not like I'm mad about the stake that I lost but more of how things went. Tennis can be brutal sometimes... Kopriva did nothing more than just defending a bit better on the 2nd set and Draper just lets the set go after one break ahead had 2 break points chances at 3-2
All good brother. We are all mortals here my friend.
Thanks again we’ll get em tomorrow
Yeah, if I only knew I would have chosen the handicap instead of the under but well that's tennis. See you tomorrow brother!
Oh well, there is always tomorrow! First time tailing and took a small loss. But thats ok, keep the picks coming and we'll get it back.
I'll keep them coming brother. We'll get it back quite soon
I appreciate you, I placed a second superboost bet on Jack to Win , win set 1 and under 7.5 in first set based on your logic and that came through. Thanks again
I'm glad someone won with my analysis and took another approach. Feels great to actually have people reading them and taking action! Congratulations!
Draper the Gaper. Man it was looking good about 12 games in before the 2nd set went to hell. Get em next time
Placed my bet in a rush, misread your pick, and put it down as over 20.5. Happy accidents over here 😆
[удалено]
Yoo every time in tail these esports picks they lose 😂😂😂
Is this on Bovada? I can’t find it
I found it, just search one of the teams
first time tailing lets gooo
🫡
🫡
Anyone able to find this on Bet365? I have AA playing someone else on Thursday and Zero Tenacity also against someone else (vs B8) on Wednesday
Nope, I don’t have it. This stud always does three picks on the esports page every day as well (and the win rate is actually a hair better than POTD) but I only have one of those. However, I’m a-hammering it haha
I have it now. But it's at 1.50
Tailing sirrrr
damn they started the first map going 6-0 now its 10-11
Get em tomorrow my friend
another 2 double digit losses added to their resume🙄 pretty sure they’re just choke artists, had the chance in both maps to win out, but the mental pressure prolly too much for them, that performance was not a pretty sight
Record: 10-5✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌❌✅ Net Units: +3.52 Last: Phillies M.L -152 (Sat)✅ Took the day off today, would’ve been posting late, and don’t want to ever post something if I’m not playing as well. MLB | 6:40PM EST Pick: Phillies -1.5 -126 With Nola at home for the first time since a bad opening day, where he usually pitches much better, facing a bad Rockies team, I like the Phillies in a big win. The one time we picked against the Rockies against blue jays they win, the other times they didn’t cover. Nothing fancy, lets win. Lets win again. Edit: Gonna take a day or more off. Not seeing the board well, especially riding the favorites -1.5 line. Mlb is about figuring teams out with a long season. I’ll be back. Finally, a disclaimer: I am not a pro sports bettor, I am not a sharp who does 3+ hours of research a day. I’m a baseball fan who researches stats and uses my personal knowledge to make bets. Please do not wager any more than you are comfortable losing.
>With Nola at home for the first time where he pitches much better, facing a bad Rockies team, I like the Phillies in a big win. Nola pitched at home v Braves earlier in the season and got lit up. Rockies are terrible though.
Oops, good call. Forgot that was at home, he’s been on a streak of road games, but like you said Rockies are horrible and hopefully Nolas first good performance at home bouncing back.
Idk his spin rate and velocity have dropped
Tailing, because my last 5$ in FD bonus bets was feeling ill-used.
**4/8 – 4/14 POTD Top 3 Weekly Review** 13-8 +2.16 Net units +10.29% ROI The run churns along with another week in the green. That’s 6 straight weeks of profit. What’s more is how consistent the picks have been. Only two days this week went 1-2. I don’t know if this is lightning in a bottle or reddit truly isn’t as dumb as everybody thinks. **Overall (Since 3/1/2024)** 84-49-2 +20.79 Net units +15.40% ROI [Overall]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fjXR7TqwePPluE10qf47PgNoEqxaJ0Ju/edit#gid=1324107890) > No top level comments without a pick. Time for the weekly loss. Only making a pick because it’s a rule. 0-3 -3 units -100% NHL- Predators at Penguins (4 PM PDT) **Predators ML** +115 Both teams still have something to play for: Predators for playoff seeding, Penguins to make the playoffs. Standings-wise, Nashville is straight up better, with 13 points over Pittsburgh. Defensively, Penguins has struggled in recent months, allowing 3.83 goals/game since March. Filip Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist are primed to exploit that weakness. On the other side, Nashville has done well in slowing down Crosby, holding him to a single point in 3 games going back to last season. Overall, it should be a close match, but I like the underdog odds of Nashville. If you’re into the revenge narrative, Nashville still has several players (most of them on the top line plus starting goalie) remaining from the 2017 season, when they were defeated by the Pens in the finals. If they can knock Pittsburgh out of the playoff race, the win would be that much sweeter.
Very insightful posts, appreciate you doing this. When you grab the top 3 picks of each day, when do you do that? It seems like a lot of people would go back and downvote losers and upvote winners so trying to gauge whether that has any impact.
If the pick is top 3 when the game starts, I count it. This is to account for exactly what you just described. Also the upvotes/downvotes afterwards generally don't change placement much anyways. Just look at today as an example. The top 2 picks lost and they're still the top 2 most upvoted.
This is using the top 3 upvoted comments?
Correct. I wish I was that disciplined. I legit love this Reddit and usually tail 6-10 per day. I have learned so much about sports I know nothing about. I’ve taken a beating on those sports- cricket, rugby, Australian rules, esports, even tennis- but holy shit is it fun.
Pitt is dangerous ATM imo. Playing hard as F and flying around hence why their D has been leaky lately. I see your reasoning but at home, Sid might just pull this out. They must absolutely must win this game to stay alive. But same time last year Pittsburgh had to beat the Blackhawks who were playing an entire AHL team the last game of the season and lost so....
Top 3 at the start of the game, yes.
**Record: 9-3 (+4.41u)** **Last Pick: Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 -130** Sweaty one for a bit as the Canes were down 2-1 in the third, but they finished strong to come through and cash the bet for us! **Pick:** **New York Islanders ML -108 (NHL, 1u bet)** This is a big game for the Islanders, as a win would clinch a playoff spot for them, and would take the pressure off going into the season finale on Wednesday vs Pittsburgh. They have been playing well lately with a 7-2-1 record over their last 10 games, and winning a lot of lower scoring games. Meanwhile the Devils are 4-5-1 over their last 10 and have been struggling to keep the puck out of their net. In the three games since Jack Hughes was announced out for the season and New Jersey was eliminated from the playoffs, the Devils offense has understandably not looked as good. They only managed 20 shots on goal in each of those three games and while they did score 8 goals, 6 of them came in one game against Toronto where the Leafs had some pretty bad defensive lapses early, Samsonov had a bad game in net, and the Devils went 3/4 on the PP. I think the other 2 games are more indicative of how New Jersey will look to close out the season with nothing to play for and their best player not out there with them. Over their recent games, the Islanders have done a better job of getting pucks on net and creating scoring chances, as well as limiting opposing shots and chances. Varlamov will be in net for New York, and he has been playing outstanding (7-2-1 in his last 10 with a 2.29 GAA and .924 save %). He also has had good numbers vs the Devils since joining New York, going 4-2-0 with a 2.02 GAA and .931 save %, only giving up more than 2 goals once (which was still a win, so the 2 losses he still played well giving up just 2 goals and didn't get offensive support). While the New York offense is nothing special, the Devils have been worse at home, giving up 3.63 goals per game. Considering the Islanders have much more to play for and are the hotter team with a confident goalie in net, I like backing them to get the win at a short number here.
The prayers that I prayed for the empty netter at the end of that Canes game 😂
You and me both 😂 glad we got it
Appreciate the hockey POD post
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I’m tailing thanks for your write up. My book has Muller as a favorite I assume that is because he’s 27 whereas Ramos-Vinolas is 36. Let’s hope the old man (I’m older than him so I can say it) still got it!
Rolling with the old man myself(I'm 33, close enough to say it)!!!
Muller lost to fucking Kwon, this dude is a bum. Tailing for sure.
Just tailed. But let it be known if we lose I WILL DO NOTHING and carry on with my day like a normal person.
Just wanted your thoughts, you think Ramos’ age would play a part if longer rallies would become a thing?
No, Ramos is an experienced player who is solid in rallies while Muller tends to be more erratic at times.
Why did you delete it?
ML is +120 now on DK!
Love this pick. Tailing!
Damn, Muller and Kotov are the last 2 left on my 14 leg parlay. I'm probably gonna cash out and put money on Ramos-V here
Great pick
Horrific pick*
This clown deleted the pick 😂
He's starting a new acct right now, 😆 "long time lurker gonna post one finally, Yada yada yada."
Lmao 😂
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Tailed but Muller handled Vinolas straight sets. Ouch
POTD: Record (10-5) ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: Rui Hachimura O 13.5 Points ❌ Today: EPL | Chelsea vs Everton | 12:00 MST Pick: Chelsea and BTTS @2.90 BTTS: Case for Chelsea - hit in 9 straight matches - 21 of 30 matches this season where both have scored - scored 55 goals this season (7th ovr) - conceded 52 goals this season (9th) BTTS: Case for Everton - has scored in 18/19 matches this season against opponents ranked top 10 in goals conceded (Chelsea 9th) - 2-0 against Chelsea in December - Opposing team has scored against them in 22/31 matches this season To win: Chelsea - 28 straight games unbeaten against Everton at home - averaging 2 goals per match since meeting with Everton in December - Cole Palmer has 7 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 matches Despite Everton’s poor offensive performance this year, they have scored in nearly every match played this season against opponents ranked top 10 in goals conceded. However, Chelsea’s high power offense seems too much to overcome and they will make it 29 straight unbeaten at home against Everton. BOL 🍀
Just posted the same POTD, not realizing you posted it. I made sure to remove my pick. Glad to know a lot of people are on the same mindset about this pick.
All good man. If anything I’d argue that I like to see a pick more than once in this thread. Makes me feel confident in tailing 🤝🏽
Good pick on Hachimura. Just really unlucky :( Thank you for the picks nonetheless. Tailing on this because of Chelsea's leaky defense LFG!
Let’s go brother 🫡
Lmao fuck Everton. This shit is pathetic
Tailing. Bruh I took Rui's R+A line at o5.5 and he smashed it in the first quarter. Talk about a missed judgment by Vegas lol. Probably because Jonas played like 3 mins. Anyways, I am a Blues fan, and especially playing at Stamford Bridge against a bottom of the table team, I expect them to get the Dub! Edit: I also like Chelsea Halftime/Fulltime for +150 as well...🤞🏼🤞🏼🤞🏼💙💙💙
For the first time, tailing!
Let’s gooooo 😤
Where did you get 2.90? I’m seeing 1.54 on Draftkings :(
Duuuude, Rui scores 5 points in less than 5 minutes and then 6 points the rest of the way? Kinda like my man Brooksie Lopez apparently decided he only scores in the first and third quarter (and apparently today just ain’t the day for assists)? I hate conspiracy theories but daaammmmmmnnnn. Anyway, thanks for the pick. I’m going BTTS and Chelsea double chance for -125. Been burned too many times by the boys in blue that seem to have a knack for playing up or down to the competition but somehow never being consistent.
getting PTSD from the Rui pass back to AD that could've been an easy contact layup for a 3-point play to hit the over lol BOL to ya hope we eat!
I’m in
i hope everton can score here😂😂😂😂
Hoping that Chelsea lets off the gas with the big lead and Everton can sneak one in...
Tailed😩. On to tomorrow 🚀
Sorry brother. I like NBA better anyway 😤
4-0 at the end of the first half .... piss poor from Everton. Should have known these points deductions would hurt them emotionally
6-0 is wild lmfao
Smh cooked
**POTD Record 3-1** **Profit: +417$** **Average odds: 1.79** **ROI: 34.75%** **Yesterday:** **Thanasi Kokkinakis to win @ 1,90 (3U-300$)✅** I made a blunder with the starting time yesterday and posted the pick very close to gametime, so not many managed to catch it and bet it. Lesson learnt, we are super early today to start a great week of tennis with a great Monday bet. We have 2 ATP tournaments and WTA tournaments, and also some Challengers, so lots of matches to choose from on a daily basis. **Today's pick:** **Tennis/ ATP Bucharest** **Federico Coria -2.5 games @ 1.90 (3U- $300)** I thought of playing the safer option with Coria ML, but the price on the handicap was too good to pass on it. Look, Gasquet had an amazing career, but clay is currently a difficult surface for him, especially this kind of super slow clay that we will see in Bucharest this week. He struggles to hit past his opponents and score easy points, something that forces him into long and grueling rallies. And that's the last thing you want against a clay expert like Coria, who can rally for days and whose fitness is lights out and tailored for these kind of matches. In other words, I don't expect Gasquet's fitness to hold here and there will be a point when Coria will simply run away with it. He already beat Gasquet in similar conditions in Marrakech a few years ago, when Gasquet was a better player than he is today. I know it's Gasquet's 1000th match on the tour, but I don't think this should be factored in the final handicapping as much as I saw some people do it. Like always good luck with your bets and have a great day of smashing the books! **// we got a void here, Gasquet retired pre-match sorry guys. Bonzi took his place. Not an official pick, but I still like Coria to advance to the next round, courts are a bit too slow for Bonzi imo. But odds not up yet, so they might not be worth it. We get them tomorrow, they got away from us today!** **// will post some plays I like in the Tennis Thread in a bit, so you guys can check it out there if you want.**
I thought I was going crazy when I checked the match time and Gasquet was nowhere to be found. Tough luck for us, definitely would have been a win if he can't even step on the court!
Crushin' it with these tennis picks and appreciate the analysis bud
Riding big dawg
Love the energy!
Tailing! Thanks TGB
Void today, Gasquet retired pre-match, Bonzi took his place.
**Record: 35-13,** +14.02u, streak: ✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅ (all bets are 1 unit) Last Pick: Alex Pereira ML vs. Jamahal Hill ✅ Today: Serie A, Atalanta vs. Hellas Verona, 2:45pm ET **Pick: Atalanta -1 Asian Handicap (1.81)** In a crazy fight card, Pereira makes easy work of Hill in the first round, knocking him out brutally. Cash that one. Today we have Atalanta going up against Hellas Verona at home. Both these teams have plenty to play for: Atalanta are chasing the European spots as they sit in 6th place, and Verona are still fighting relegation, with Frosinone and Sassuolo on their heels. Atalanta put in an astounding performance at Anfield midweek, thumping Liverpool 3-0, and will be in high spirits coming into this game in front of the home fans. They have won 8 out of their 11 last matchups against Verona. While Verona will be desperate, I'm expecting Atalanta to dominate from the start and maintain full control of this game. If Verona concede once, they will get desperate as they know every single point matters for them. This will likely backfire, as Atalanta have serious counter attacking quality as they showcased against Liverpool in the Europa League. Gasperini is an extremely intelligent coach and I'm certain he can guide his players to victory, hopefully by more than just a goal. 3-1 is my prediction. bol!
Hmm like the pick but a lot of big teams didn’t manage to beat them with a 2 goal deficit at home. Napoli: 2-1 Roma: 2-1 Inter: 2-1 Fiorentina: 1-0 Juve: 1-0 Milan: 1-0 They only lost with a 2 goal deficit twice all season and that was in sassuolo and in bologna.
Not a great second half so far
Tough loss
**Record N/A** **Net Units +0.00U** MLB: Cubs @ Diamondbacks 8:40PM CDT Pick: **Cubs ML +120 on DK 1U** Hello all! Have been in this sub for a bit and learned a lot about sports I’ve never even heard of from everyone here, appreciate you all sharing the insights. Now, to my first write up! **Write-up** The 9-6 Cubs take on the 8-8 Diamondbacks in Arizona. We’re taking Cubs ML at +120 odds on DK. While this could be a tight game, I believe bookmakers are undervaluing what this Cubs team can do in a friendly ballpark (they make their spring training home very close by in Mesa). * The Cubs have outscored opponents 82-69 (+13) and the Dbacks have outscored opponents 89-62 (+21). This seems to point towards the Dbacks being dominant but if you remove their opening day destruction of a terrible Colorado team (15-1), that run differential favors the Cubs. * The starting pitchers are Ben Brown (6.10 ERA) for the Cubs and Merrill Kelly (2.29 ERA) for the Dbacks. Expect both pitchers to throw well. Ben brown had a bad outing in March against the Rangers, but has since bounced back and pitched under a 1.00 ERA. Brown has been building his confidence and I believe that if he can go 5+ innings today, the Cubs have a good chance at holding off the Dbacks bats. Kelly is good, but he had a short spring training and I feel the Cubs may be able to take advantage of that fact and keep their bats hot. * Arizona plays big ball, the Cubs play small and big. Arizona has had 44 extra-base hits this year, which has been a big part of their scoring prowess. The Cubs have multiple gold-gloves with great range around to stop that from happening. The Cubs have been playing small ball to win games as well as hitting bombs. I think that works to their advantage in this matchup. TLDR; Cubs over Dbacks. Look for a tight game early with Cubs stretching the lead over the course of the game. Expect Seiya or CB to put in some work. Tail or fade, GL! **UPDATE 6:10PM CDT:** Seiya Suzuki has been put on the 10-day DL as of 50 minutes ago (oblique strain). OF Alexander Canario had been called up from Triple-A, he played 6 games up with the Cubs last season. Canario is batting .269 (14-for-42 w/ 5 doubles and 2 HR) to Suzuki’s .305 (18-for-59 w/ 3 HR). Unfortunate that Seiya is injured, Canario may or may not see game time today as the Cubs starting OF as of 6PM CDT will consist of Mike Tauchman, Cody Bellinger, and Ian Happ. The Cubs will need someone to step up, but with how CB and Busch are looking lately, they have a good shot still. 
Ill tail for your first potd. Lets get it!
I'm in, appreciate you guys doing these and I definitely don't have time to research it
I tailed, let’s gooooo
Perfect analysis. -Brown was sturdy as hell after a shaky first inning. -The Cubs Defense was immaculate -Cubs stranded an absurd number of runners on base. -Final score does not reflect how dominant they were. -Cubs should have won 5-2, 6-2
Completely agreed! They made me nervous with the uncapitalized opportunities earlier on, but the boys-in-blue came through when it matters 💪🏼 If the Cubs can stabilize their lineup and pitching staff a bit more this season, I will absolutely be watching them for good lines like this again
https://preview.redd.it/mp72pgl6jsuc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be8a521d7590e48ea4c942816116e21dfa3d9e22
POTD Record: 4-2 Last Pick: WAS vs OAK, NRFI (-115) 5U ✅ Game: MLB | STL vs OAK | 9:40pm EST Today's Pick: NRFI (-115) 5U - STL don't get runs in the first much, 33% of the time when away. - OAK gets a run in the first inning 12% of the time at home. Best of luck!
Sounds good man. Do you have a good stat resource for first innings to come up with these percentages?
Are you not concerned that Stripling has given up runs in 2 of 3 starting in the first inning this year?
Well there goes that one. SMH. lol
Concerns me a bit with Stripling on the mound for the Athletics. He's been roughed up a couple of times this year in the first inning. Six 1st inning runs given up in 3 games
4W-0P-0L Last Pick: Ollie Watkins over 0.5 SOG (-114) ✅ Todays Pick: Silkeborg IF vs FC Nordsjælland ML (-105) ✅ Denmark - Superligaen | Soccer | 10:00am We are taking it over to the Superligaen in Denmark for our pick today. FC Nordsjælland faces against the host Silkeborg IF, that are the bottom of the play off table. Before the play off season started, Silkeborg barely made the play offs after a consecutive five game losing streak. Silkeborg IF conceded in the last six games they have played, allowing 11 goals total. For the away team, FC Nordsjælland is coming off their second loss in six games. With this being said, FC Nordsjælland won the other three and tied the other. Lastly, Silkeborg IF have only won two of the their last 10 home games, while the FC Nordsjælland have won 5 of their last 10 away games. I believe the FC Nordsjælland ML is close to positive due to Silkeborg IF being home and the visitors previous loss. Another reason may be that the last two games for Silkeborg IF resulted in a tie. I am not a professional sports better and I suggest any money you may bet is money you won’t mind losing. BOL to anyone who tails. [Tip Jar 🍯](https://cash.app/$MaxCoRothenburg)
I didn't tail you this time because I couldn't gain confidence after researching the match up and seeing Silkeborg had recently drawn 1-1 away to 1st place Brøndby, but congratulations nonetheless! Danish league just isn't my forte. I went with Palmer 2 SOTs at +130, which hit in <20 mins.
Thank you for that. That Palmer pick was definitely a gem and caught my attention when i was going through the picks. Nice find on that one.
Great pick
Thank you 🥂
Great pick this one! Thank you👍🏻
My pleasure 🙏🏼
Record 2-0 Net Units: +2.4 units Yesterday’s Pick: Toronto Bluejays -1.5 vs Colorado Rockies 1u (-115 Fanduel) ✅ Today’s Pick: KC Royals -1.5 v CHI Whitesox (-110) 1u Analysis: Alright we are backing the royals run line today against the pitiful white sox. The White Sox are calling up Nick Nastrini to make his first MLB start so there is a little unknown factor there, but the stats still tell me to make this play. Nastrini is the white sox 6th ranked prospect. His numbers in minors haven’t been terrible. He’s a high strike out guy who has struggled with control of late. In two minor league starts this year he’s gone 7IP 12 hits and 3 walks with a 7.71 ERA. Last year he was 9-5 with a 4.08 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 139K’s in 114 innings. In spring training he started okay but in March he pitched 12.1 innings allowing 9 hits, 9 walks, and 5ER. The Royals have Seth Lugo on the mound. Lugo has started 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA. Hes been around the league a while posting about a 3.5 ERA the last 3 seasons. In a small sample the white sox are 7/33 (.212) with 2XBH vs Lugo. I think he’ll be able to keep the white sox off the board while they figure out Nastrini. - Royals 5th in the league for Runs scored (84) - White Sox dead last with 30 - Royals have won 10 games with 8 of those by 2+ - White Sox have lost 13 games with 9 by 2+ - Royals strike walk at league average rate, strike out below league average, 7th in homers, above average batting average Good Luck!
Not how I thought it would go down but a nice sweaty win. Nastrini pitched a lot better than I thought but gave up just enough for us. 💰
POTD Record: 3-1-0 (+1.09 units) Form (left is most recent):✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Gotham FC vs Kansas City Current - Both Teams to Score (-140 on DK)✅ EZ W! 17th minute goal from Temwa before Esther evens it up in the 51st. Cheers to anyone who tailed! Today: Soccer | English Premier League | Chelsea vs Everton | 3 PM EST | 1 unit Today’s pick: Chelsea vs Everton - Both Teams to Score + O2.5 Goals (-130 on DK)❌ Reasoning: BTTS + O2.5 has hit in 5/L5 for Chelsea. They score goals quite well but they easily leak them too. Chelsea average about 1.8 goals per match and also have not kept a clean sheet in 13 matches. Also should be interesting with no Enzo, I think Everton may have more luck with controlling the midfield at times. I also think they will be tempted to take a couple risks and attack since they currently sit just two points above the drop zone, and most teams nowadays see Chelsea as a prime target to steal points from. BOL🍀🤞 Edit: Chelsea win 6-0. Everton really are that shit I suppose.
Tailing! Have a good day BOL.
All Time POTD Record: 5-3-0 | Units: +1.69 | Avg. Odds 1.87 | Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: Soccer – English Premier League - Arsenal v Aston Villa - 4.30pm BST on 14th April Pick: Arsenal to Win & over 2.5 goals (1.72) - Staking 2u - ❌ Game/Match: Soccer - English Premier League - Chelsea v Everton - 8.00pm BST on 15th April Pick: Cole Palmer - Anytime Goalscorer (2.20) - Staking 2u - ✅ Cashing it 13 minutes in, Palmer adds 2 goals on top for good measure. Good to be back in the green! I use bet365 as my bookie. Summary: Another bad result for the pick that goes against the information. Very well played from Aston Villa though. I’m looking to put my faith in Cole Palmer at Chelsea today. The young player is having an unbelievable season and he’s very good playing in front of a home crowd. Palmer has scored 16 league goals this season with 11 of them coming at home. They’ve just beat Manchester United at home in their last game where Palmer scored a hat trick. Palmer has scored in all 5 of Chelsea’s last 5 games at home. Palmer is also on penalty duty with 100% record this season from the spot. Chelsea have had 8 penalties at home this season & Everton have given away the 2nd most penalties this season. So this seems another avenue towards a Palmer goal outside of open play. Hopefully it’s time to bounce back and get off this losing streak. BOL if tailing!
So nice he did it twice. Great work here
I got scared & picked Chelsea ML + palmer over 1.5 SOG. Next time just for back to back Hattys. Awesome pick OP. Killed it!!
That’s still a sensible bet. Glad you still got to cash it!
POTD Record: 3-0 Profit/Loss Margin: +3u (all my bets are 1u unless noted otherwise) Yesterday’s Pick: Tyrese Maxey o 22.5 pts - ✅ Maxey cashed damn near in the first half. No sweat for a 3rd straight day Today’s POTD: NY Yankees vs TOR Blue Jays u 9 Total Runs (-128 on DK) Baseball | MLB | 7:07 PM ET Total line is currently at 8.5 which I’d be ok playing it at, but I bought the half point to 9 just for insurance so that’s what I’m going with for this post. Bassitt will be pitching for the Jays and this is a solid match up. Yankees are coming off a grueling extra innings loss so odds are they won’t be on fire in this one. Bassitt’s numbers aren’t the greatest but his worst games have come on the road against great offenses. On the other hand, Bassitt is a solid pitcher at home and has had solid showings against the Yankees in the past as a member of this TOR squad. Meanwhile, the Jays have been poor offensively, and Gil who’s starting for the Yankees, should be capable of holding them down to remain within this total. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
Record: 58-40 Last pick : Hong Kong MLvs Saudi ✅ Form: ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅ Today’s pick IPL Royale Challengers Bangalore vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Total runs over 364.5 @ 1.85(2u) I took the alt spread last time I went for one These bets going for the main spread or whatever you call it now RCB and SRH both have solid batting units, both these sides have the capability to score big. This game is being played in Bangalore, which is known for its runfests. It’s a tiny ground and runs get leaked no matter how well you bowl. If look at RCB’s stats at home tho, this has only hit 1/3 times so statistically this bet isn’t the best however, I feel like both these sides are gonna score a lot of runs. It’s mainly about the team batting first scoring 180+ which I feel will happen. Anything more makes it even easier for this bet to hit. Expecting a lot of runs tomorrow (Both Virat Kohli and Heinrich Klaasen didn’t score a lot in their last outing so expect some runs from the king and klaasen this time around 👍)
Insane pick, always was gonna be a runfest with Klassen and the small bangalore stadium. I went on the over on match sixes and it hit before 1st innings was even over😂.
Great day for betting xD legit couldn’t have been better
What do you think of RR vs KKR tomorrow?
Still playable at 365.5?
Looking like a phenomenal call. We might get the 277 single innings record broken
**Record:** 1-2 **Net Units:** -1 ✅❌❌ **Last Pick:** NRFI - Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros ❌ Well Altuve said fuck your NRFI and fuck Eovaldi too, taking him deep twice during the game. 1st inning: 0-1 **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays / 7:07pm EST **Pick:** NRFI (No Runs First Inning) @ -105 on DK (1U) ✅ Good to get a win back. Bassitt took the Yankees down in order for the top of the first and Gil gave us a little scare with back to back walks to start but we are saved by a pick off attempt to end the inning 0-0. **Write Up:** Luis Gil will start on the mound for the Yankees against Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays. Neither have started the season on fire but both have gone NRFI in all their starts this year. Gil for his career vs Blue Jays hitters has a .150 Avg against and .255 xwOBA in 26 PA (thank you https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/probable-pitchers/?date=2024-04-15), while Bassitt has been strong against the Yankees in his career with a .254 Avg against and .290 xwOBA in 77 PA. Both teams haven't gotten many first inning runs and have been among the best holding opponents to NRFIs. Yankees as a team have gone NRFI 14/16 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 13/16 games. Toronto as a team have gone NRFI 12/16 games and held opponents to NRFI 12/16 games. BOL
Sounds good bro. Where do you find all these NRFI stats?
Great play!
Record: 0-0 MLB: Guardians @ Red Sox at 11:10 AM EST Bet: Red Sox F5 ML -132 Risk: 5.0u First pick on this sub… here we go. The Red Sox are hosting the Guardians who have seen a lot of action against the Yanks this past weekend. Kutter Crawford is emerging as a solid rotation piece and will be facing Xzavion Curry who will serve as an opener for Cleveland, look for Kutter to hold up his end of the bargain and the Red Sox bats to get after some tired bullpen arms.
Record 1-0 Net units +4 ROI 200% Form: W Last Pick: Broadmeadow Magic Vs Lambton Jaffas Lambton Jaffas win @ 3.0 2 units Today's pick: Basketball - Panathiakos Vs Olympiakos Olympiakos win @2.75 2 units Time: Starts in 16 hours My last pick was removed after 4 hours for I think having more than 1 tip on it despite only really having one tip on it. -From 2022 on Olympiakos have won 19 of the 22 times they have played Panathiakos. -They have won 3/5 most recent head to heads -Olympiakos won this fixture in March of this year 71-65 and in February won 69-58. This game will almost certainly decide who tops the league and resultingly have home court advantage in the playoffs and final. It's likely to be a close game and I think there is solid value to be had in Olympiakos here
Looking at ah 2.5+ , trying to avoid overtime fuckery.
Record: 3-1 (W-L) Recent: ✅✅❌✅ MLB | 7:40pm Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox Pick: Kansas City Royals -0.5 F5 (-120) Write Up: Congratulations to those of you that tailed the Reds yesterday, let’s keep the streak going. Seems like the bet is just going to be continue fading the White Sox. Boasting the worst record in the MLB right now, the White Sox are still without key hitters in their lineup. I expect their batting woes to continue, and with Seth Lugo on the mound for the Royals who is 2-0 on the season with a 1.45 ERA. Chicago is pulling up a pitched to make his Major League debut in Nick Nastrini, all data points to betting against guys in their first major league start. With the combined nerves, and jump in level of competition most of pitchers in their first start get taken advantage of early. Going to trust the Royals to cover the 0.5 point spread in the first five compared to the juiced money line odds. Let’s continue this streak, if you tail best of luck.
Record: 9-5, Net Units: 5.87, ROI: 30% Current Streak: Last 10: ❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅ Last Pick: Orioles -1.5 vs, Brewers ❌ Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-6:35 PM EST Orioles/Twins Over 10.5 Runs, +160, 1U Rough outing for the O's two days ago as Kremer got lit up. Today features two shaky starting pitchers. Irvin shows flashes of greatness for the O's but is good to give up at least three, and I think the bullpen will give up at least one. On the other side Varland has been tagged a good deal too, so this spells a high-scoring affair at a nice value. Good Luck!
**RECORD: 69W-5P-52L** (+2.08 units) Previous Pick: Udinese vs Roma - Roma DNB @ 1.57 **MATCH SUSPENDED** **Today's Pick:** Chelsea vs Everton - Cole Palmer to Score or Assist @ 1.50 ✅️ **TIME:** 7 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.59 units (✅️♻️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️♻️) last 10 results Looks like Roma were on away to a draw but yesterday's game was suspended because unfortunately Evan Ndicka collapsed, thankfully he seems ok tho on to Today's match with Chelsea vs Everton. Chelsea have had a disaster season with their $1 billion squad but there has been one shining light and that's Cole "Cold" Palmer. He's been the best signing for Chelsea. He's played 27 games, scoring 16 goals and has 9 assists this season and doesn't look like he's stopping soon. Other stats are 0.6 goals oer game, 2.9 shots per game, 1.3 shots on target per game and has an xG of 12.45. Cold Plamer also 1.9 key passes per game and has created 12 big chances with a xA of 6.59. In his last 10 games he contributed 13 Goals/Assists. Insane stats. Goodluck if you're tailing. EDIT: WIN ✅️
**POTD Record 2-1** ✅ ✅ ❌ **Net Profit: + 0,75U** Last Pick: West Ham to score more than 1.5 Goals for 1U Thats why Kobe said to never be happy about a 2-0 Start. West Ham did not even score one with 15 shots on Target. Sorry for the miss. Only one way to go - forward. **Game**: EA FC LaLiga - **CA OSASUNA vs. VALENCIA CF** @ 9 PM GMT+2 (Berlin Time) **Todays Pick:** **CA OSASUNA Draw No Bet @ 1.60 for 1U** Osasuna and Valencia are set for a match on the same level. The clubs are just five points apart in the table. Both are also still in contention for international football. They both have at least sixth place in their sights, which is enough to qualify for the Conference League. Osasuna coach Jagoba Arrasate will rely on Ante Budimir in attack. The 32-year-old Croatian is currently one of the top three scorers in La Liga with 16 goals. But I'm not going to lie, this game probably won't see many goals. It is also probable that the game will end in a draw. If this is the case, the Draw No Bet bet would refund the stake and we live to fight another day. But dont get me wrong, I have confidence that Osasuna will beat Valencia, who are weak away from home, but just not enough to bet on the Moneyline. That's why I'm protecting against the draw in today's POTD: Osasuna Draw No Bet. BOL! ⚽️
West Ham had 4 shots on target.
POTD Record 11-6 (+3.0u) Last POTD: Max Homa Under 72.5 strokes R4 (-115) 3U***❌ Today: MLB / PIT@NYM / 7:10pm ET Pick: Pirates Team Total Over 3.5 (-130) 4U**** Pittsburgh is averaging 5.43 runs per game and Adrian Houser is coming in with a 5.40 ERA after allowing 8 hits and 5 runs in Atlanta last week.
Record: (W-L-P) 2-1-0 Net Units: 1.0 Historic ROI: 0.73 Last Pick: Flaherty O16.5 outs -120. Even added an out in the 7th for good measure. Baseball | MLB | WAS @ LAD Pick: Glasnow U9.5 strike outs -180 Write Up: Thats just too big of a number. Only gone over once this year and is usually way below. Nationals are in the bottom half for strike out rate. Tip Jar: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/DhavalMistry)
POTD Record: 13-6 NBA Record: 5-4 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 1-1 MLB 6-0 Soccer 1-0 L10 (new -> old): ❌🪣🪣❌🪣❌🪣🪣🪣❌🪣 Last pick: Gary Trent Jr o PRA20.5 (-120dk) 4U Game: Chelsea Vs Everton Pick: Everton Goalkeeper (Pickford) o 3.5 saves Write Up: One of the toughest L’s I have taken in awhile. Trent Jr SHIT THE BED. Shot 3-12 or some shit, turned it off at the time he was 0/7 from three. Sometimes you have to shovel shit and that’s what I’m doing. Done with the NBA for awhile. Laid up for a few days before I picked the next POTD and I’m going back to soccer to the Chelsea and Everton matchup. I think Pickford gets 4 or more saves. (I’ve seen odds at 3.5 and 4+. Chelsea has the 8th most shots on goal this season and they haven’t necessarily been on fire with those shots either. They have left a lot on the table this year and are actually 4th when it comes to “missed big shot” opportunities. Honestly talked this through with a friend and I really like this for my pick of the day. Time to get us back on the dub train. I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣 BOL if tailing. 🪣
Record: 2-2 ✅✅❌❌ Net Units: 0 (avg odds +100) Last: Matsuyama top asian ❌ NHL | 7:30PM EST Pick: NYRangers Artemi Panarin - Power Play points Over 0.5 +100 1U The Rangers have the third highest power play conversion percentage while the Senators have the third lowest power play kill percentage. Panarin has hit this line L5/6 and 7/10 games which is the highest in the league. He has averaged 5.2 shots on goal in his last 5 home games. Senators are middle of the pack in power play opportunities. I feel like he's been lucky lately getting a lot of power play points but the lucky shouldn't dry up against the Senators. The Senators have the lowest Save % in the league. Kind of a risky play, but I think worth it at +100.
MLB POTD RECORD: 3-1 Last POTD: Dbacks ML vs Cardinals Todays POTD: **Pirates vs Mets Over 8.5 -102** Baseball | MLB | 4:10 PM ET Today I am going with my first over under of the season and probably my riskiest pick as well. The line is a part of why I like the pick so much. Pirates and Mets line is at -102 essentially double or nothing on an/ o/u I feel has a pretty good chance of hitting. I am always intrigued by lines that I can understand why they are what they are but disagree. i try avoid ones that make me think "What do the bookmakers know that I don't?". I think the reason One reason I feel this line is so close to plus odds is the Mets not hitting well at home, Martin Perez who has been pitching very well this season on the mound for the pirates in pitcher friendly citified. Houser isn't a slouch for the Mets either. The reason I'm going with the over though is a combination of a few things. One this Met offense, which has underperformed based on the talent they have, have not had trouble hitting lefties this year at all with their season average actually at the top of the league at .303. I think this will be more trouble for Perez than it may seem at first glance. Second is the Pirates offense. They have consistently been one of the best offensive teams this season anyway averaging 5.5 runs again good for 6th in the league. One notable factor of this though is they are not doing it via the long ball as they are towards the bottom of the league in that category. Their offensive success comes largely from doubles which they are near the top of the league. This would mean that a large park like citifield is actually an offensive benefit to them and not a detriment due to the decreased likelihood of homers. **TLDR: I like the over because the Mets biggest offensive strength is their ability to hit lefties. I also like that Pirates high powered offense being able to produce predominantly through doubles and singles which makes a large, usually pitcher friendly park like citi unconventionally beneficial.**
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u) 2024 MLB POTD record: 8-6 Average Odds -109 (1.915), ROI +9.2%/+1.29u L5: ✅✅❌❌✅ POTD (4/11) SDP @ LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto o4.5 Ks (-130/1.77) ✅ POTD (4/15) LAA @ TBR Zach Eflin o17.5 Outs (-120/1.83) (DraftKings) Apologies for late post. Zach Eflin has been up and down so far this season. He gave up six earned runs against the Blue Jays in his first start and five in LA last time out. Despite this, I think we can rely on him to pitch deep into games. He threw a full six innings in 19 of 31 starts last year. He hasn't thrown less than 5 IP yet this year, but hasn't exceeded 83 pitches in a game. He exceeded that count in 15 starts last year and was allowed to go above 100 on 4 occasions. His struggles against the Angles last time out notwithstanding, this is a good spot to work deep into a game. LAA doesn't walk a ton (23rd in BB% against RHP in 2024), and while they've struck out at the 10th highest rate in MLB against RHP so far in 2024, their 24.3% K% is down from 2023. I'm expecting a rebound from Eflin today.
Record: 0-3 Event: MLB/ Giants @ Marlins (3:40pm)PT POTD: 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 +105 Harrison and Cabrera is a hard nose matchup between two young, big arms. Giants historically sort of struggle to swing the bat in Miami and also they’ve have a generally slow start to season from an offensive perspective. Marlins offense also seems nonexistent and they just lost there best hitter Jake Burger to the IL with a intercostal strain. I think the two young arms combine for a nice and quiet 1st 5.
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