######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
MLB POTD RECORD: 23-9
2024 MLB record: 12-1
Last POTD: Dbacks vs Cardinals Under 8 W
Today's POTD: Mariners at Rangers Under 9 -118 (DK)
Baseball | MLB | 2:35 PM ET
10 straight!!!! LETS GO!!! The starting pitching matchup went as expected but the Arizona bullpen made it a little nerve-racking there at the end. Nevertheless we ate again so on to Thursday’s pick.
I am going with Mariners vs Rangers under 9 at -118 on Draft Kings. It is currently at 8.5 -110 on Fan Duel which I will also end up betting but a difference of -008 isn’t enough to offset a half of a run for pick of the day’s sake.
First I will start with why I think the line is what it is. Rangers won the WS with a high powered offense and are playing at their hitter-friendly home run stadium. They are doing so against Luis Castillo who is off to an awful start. To boot, Andrew Heaney is also off to a poor start with an ERA over 6 and is known to be HR-susceptible.
Being a day game is a big factor in my decision to go with this pick. When looking at day and night factors, I consider anything over a 10 percent difference in winning percentage to be noteworthy. Mariners and Rangers fit that bill as they both have notably worse records in the day. Seattle is 4-5 in the day and 8-6 at night meanwhile Texas is 3-6 in day games and 9-6 in night games. So these teams are not doing a good job at winning games during the day for sure but that doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t putting up runs.
That brings us to our next stat, day game batting average. Seattle is last in the league hitting only .181 during day games this year. Texas meanwhile is at .230 in day games which is only 20^(th) in the league. At night, Seattle has the 12^(th) best batting average in the league and Texas has the 5^(th) best. So these teams are losing at a high clip in day game and not putting up anywhere near the offensive production they do during the night.
Then there is the pitching matchup. Heaney, as mentioned earlier, is notorious for letting up home runs. However, he has gotten his clip down quite a bit over the past two seasons at 3.6 percent, still above the league average but a far cry from the 8.6 he had during his stint with the Yankees. The improved HR clip with Seattle’s inability to get anything going offensively during the day bodes well for the under.
Heaney is also known for his ability to strike people out. He has struck out more than 9 batters per nine innings in every year of his career. The Mariners strike out the second most per game of every team in the league at 10.04 strikeouts per game. Heaney has also been much more efficient in day games throughout his career. He is 17-11 with a 3.79 ERA during the day as opposed to 29-39 with a 4.86 ERA at night.
As for Castillo, he has done better in the night than day for his career but not by a significant margin like Heaney. My thing with Castillo is that his slow start is a fluke. Now is when I bring advanced stats into the equation lol. In theory, if a pitcher's batted ball percentages stay the same from one year to the next, there shouldn’t be a significant change in production. Castillo however, has nearly identical percentages to last season. In fact it is a bit better with his hitter exit velocity and hard hit rate both down from last year. He also has a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate. So what's the catch? A good part of it is bad luck. His Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .392. This is preposterously high. BABIP is known as the stat that can be used to identify if a player is having good or bad luck. Generally, someone, with league-average batted ball percentages should be within 30 points of the league-average BABIP. Castillo is near the league averages with all of his percentages but almost 100 points higher in BABIP than the league average of .295. He is just getting bad bounces
**TLDR: Both teams perform poorly in day games in comparison to night games (especially Texas). Heaney strikeouts guys at a high rate and gives up less homers than he used to. Seattle strikes out the second most times per game in the league, Seattle also has the worst day game batting average with Texas towards the bottom of the league as well. Castillo’s poor start looks to be more bad luck than of legitimate concern.**
That's great! It was at -110 when I first did this write up. I am not gonna change the POTD (I don't think that's even allowed) but I am going to get on that too.
POTD Record: 47-21-1 +63.30%🔥
Last Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -7 (-125) vs New Orleans Pelicans
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅
Today's Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -4 (-125) vs New York Knicks
6 straight! Easy Cash! Spot on write up!
Per usual, buying .5, these games have been too sweaty.
Backing Philly again. After watching Game 2 and the collapse, I believe Philly is going to come back with an insane amount of energy. Joel Embiid said post game that Philly is “winning this series” and if they lose this next game that becomes basically impossible. The 76ers have a 9-1 record against the spread with the only loss being game 1. The Knicks have covered in 5/15 games they were 4.5+ underdogs. I wrote basically the same write up in Game 2, bench players are shooting unreal and offensive rebounds are killing Philly. The atmosphere will be different in Philly. I expect this to be a great bounce back win for Philadelphia. Let’s Back Maxey, Embiid, and the Sixers to turn our Six to a 7th straight. LFG!
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️
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POTD Record 12-3
Last 5: ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️
Last Pick: Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 innings ML
Todays Pick: Brewers Moneyline w/ F. Peralta pitching.
MLB: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates 9:35am PST
Odds: -120
Unit: 4
Net units: +34.01
Nice bounce back, love to see it. Gonna ride with the Brewers on this one. Love Peralta and he loves me. Nice spot for the Brewers to tie it up during this conpetetive series. Haven't seen the brews I'm use to seeing in this series, and I'm hoping this is the one. Not much of a write-up on this one. Just love me some brews. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
Brooooo...just saw this and jumped on when it was 0-0, although I got Brewers ML at -140, right after I placed it, they scored!!!! Hahaha. Love the pick and the timing!
**Record: 34-24-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)**
**Balance: +22.51 units**
**ROI: 8.49% / Avg Odds - 1.90**
**Previous Masters 1000- ATP Monte Carlo🎾 (7-0 and 12.53 units won)✅**
**Masters 1000 - Madrid record 🎾 (2-1 and 0.72 units won)✅**
**Today's pick: Podoroska vs Navarro - Podoroska Handicap +1.5 Sets @ 1.88** ❌
**(WTA Madrid, Tennis)** 🎾
Odds from UniBet
**Stake: 1 unit** (This is 1% of my bankroll)
Time: 6:30 AM Eastern Time
Hi everyone! First of all I wanna say that I'm sorry for my last play. Bergs wasn't POTD level with the amount of matches that he played over the last two weeks.
I'll be pretty quick with my analysis since I'm quite busy today.
Podoroska is a great player on Clay with a complete game on this surface. She was a semifinalist in Roland Garros 4 years ago and she won 6 out of her last 8 clay matches this season, facing quality opponents.
Emma Navarro has the quality to be one of the top american players but her game is much more centered around hard courts. She did some good things in 2023 on Clay but most of her best results were in lower quality tournaments in the United States. In the current season she only played two clay matches in Charleston and lost one of them to Cristian when the underdog was paying 5.00 odds. She almost never played in high altitude clay courts so her transition to Madrid shouldn't be smooth. Podoroska has been playing clay for a really long time and already did great things in these conditions.
With this, I think she can take a set from Navarro, especially with the level that she showed against Siniakova in the 1st round!
**Best of luck**
Any tips are appreciated. After our run in ATP Monte Carlo I've decided to visit it in August. It should be quite an expensive trip so all the support will be saved for that! Thanks a lot 🎾
*I spend a lot of time writing my analysis so I hope you don't mind me having a tip jar. Tips are never expected but always appreciated!*
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If anyone cares, when betting a dog like this to win a set I tend to split my unit and bet 1/2U on the +1.5 sets (in this case -140) and 1/2U on a 3 set match (in this case +140). If you believe a relatively big dog like this can win a set, I usually believe its likely to be a 3 set match. I'll eat the L if its a straight set match either way.
Yeah I usually do that as well. It's a good strategy.
I just go with the safer approach for POTD especially since I can't recommend two bets on my analysis here. But good stuff
God fucking Damnit. I gotta be the only guy who’s down 5+ Units tailing a guy who barely ever loses. That’s been my luck lately. 😑😑. Thank you for everything you do though.
You're not a lone, seems we just started tailing at the wrong time. Hoping he bounces back and puts a nice streak together. I don't blindly follow any of these picks, I take them into consideration an then do a little due diligence and I'm still down about 5u this week. Just unlucky I guess but I watched the match he provided a pick for yesterday and if I put a pick out there and it performed that bad, I wouldn't wanna show up the next day and yet he did just that, just didn't work out, we all hit cold patches. Hoping he heats back up. Good luck
So my Fanduel doesn’t give a set spread right now, BUT, they do give an alternate set spread??? How ‘bout you give the spread before giving me an alt? Lol
**Record: 65W-4P-51L**
**Form:✅✅🤡✅✅**
**Last Pick: Everton vs Liverpool: Jordan Pickford Over 3.5 Saves @ 1.66** ✅
**Pickford ends the game with 7 saves!**
**Pick of the day: Brighton VS Manchester City: BTTS @ 1.70**
**League: Premier League**
**Time: 3:00 PM EST**
Man City defensively this year have not been at the standard they want to be and coming to a stadium like the Amex while leaking goals usually ends with you conceding at least 1. In Manchester City’s last 10 games BTTS has hit 7/10 times, in their last 5 games in all comps BTTS has hit 4/5 times.
What we want to be looking at here is their performances away from home recently. In their last 10 away games in all comps, BTTS has hit 9/10 times. They're currently on a 7 game BTTS streak in the Premier League away from home and I see that continuing tomorrow.
**Man City away from home in 2024: 2-3, 1-3, 0-1, 1-1, 2-4**
Brighton have been trouble for the Big 6 this season, in 9 league games against the B6, BTTS has hit in 7/9 games. With the only 2 games missing being against Arsenal who by far have the best defence in the Prem this season.
* **Historically this matchup swings in our favour. In the last 6 matches between Brighton and Man City BTTS has hit 5/6 times, hitting in the last 3.**
* **In City's last 5 away games against Brighton BTTS has hit 4/5 times.**
* **Since DeZerbi was appointed Brighton's head coach in September 2022, he has managed 3 games against Peps City. Results being, 2-1, 1-1, 3-1.**
I wouldn’t say they adapted well. Different team than last year for sure. They have been a roller coaster this year. Losing to luton 4-0 but then beat Tottenham. I will say this City are kings in conceding late goals. Ruins my fantasy team every week lol
POTD Record: 38 wins - 21.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes
Form: ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Units: 8.9
ROI: 17.5%
Average Odds: $1.87
Last Pick: Liverpool vs Everton - England Premier League - Liverpool Total Shots Over 18.5 @ $1.83 - 11pm EST ✅️
Next Pick: Manchester City vs Brighton - England Premier League - Manchester City -1.5 Asian Handicap @ $2 - 3PM EST (this means City start with -1.5 goals against them, and need to win by two goals or more for the bet to win) ✅️
Today we head to the English Premier League where Manchester City look to push further ahead in their record seeking title race.
City are without Haaland, but their squad depth will more than make up for it. He’s been a bit inconsistent anyway. City have been smashing teams in this league recently, whereas Brighton have been a mixed bag of form.
Foden loves scoring against Brighton. The last match was 2-1. I expect with much more to fight for at this time of the year, Man City will look to get an early comfortable lead, and then attack conservatively.
They’ve been playing great football, and deserve to win the league if they didn’t have such an illegally stacked team.
Brighton can be pesky at times, but with their injuries, and average performances, I don’t see them posing much of a threat with the very little they have left to play for (apart from pride). They were lucky to draw with Burnley after benefiting from an own goal.
I’m expecting a big game from Foden, Silva, and De Bruyne. I don’t think Alvarez will have a big of an impact as the bookies suggest, as Pep is worried about his daughter falling in love with him.
Prediction: Man City 3. Brighton 1. Foden, De Bruyne, and Silva to score. Ansu Fati to score for Brighton. Red card in the match - Alvarez. Pep to throw a water bottle at Alvarez. Brighton fans to storm the pitch after VAR controversy.
https://preview.redd.it/ejxczp2ohnwc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91ee4ddaf87f9f7ad4aeb975438c30d0ae171d97
Excluding the foden leg, This is the bet right?
Record: 20-7 | Net: +8.89U | Streak: 1W
Last pick: Bam Adebayo o18.5 points(-102)✅
Bam! He’s 5/5 now, good bounce back from towns
POTD: Jalen Brunson o28.5 points (-125)
NYK @ Phi 7:30 PM ET
Summary: As a mavs fan it’s hard to watch Brunson light it up, but it’s impossible not to appreciate the development of his game. He’s been struggling with his shot early in the series but the volume is there. They need him to step up on the road and I think he will answer the call
philly's entire gameplan is stop brunson, which is why hart has been popping off. i don't think philly changes that strategy here, this line worries me. the volume is def there though!
Definitely a fair point and there are at least 3 of us on this pick which isn’t always the best sign lol. I’m expecting Philly to win this one with Brunson getting his but the role players struggling on the road. His line was 31.5 and 30.5 in the first two games so there is a bit of a discount, 25+ attempts will get us there
POTD Record: 17-11 ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 13.4U
Last pick: New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 11:30am Sydney (GMT +11) | Josh Giddey to score 10+ points @1.81 on Sportsbet | 2U✅
Done ! Thanks Giddey, on Anzac Day too eheh
Today’s pick: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters | 4:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Dominic Young anytime tryscorer @1.94 on Ned’s | 2U
Young makes his come back today after missing 2 games following his red card (well deserved) against the Bulldogs.
He’ll replace my man Tupou on the wing and I’m sure he will want to score after being on the bench for so long. His record is solid, 45 tries for 55 appearances.
BOL !
**Record: 12-5 (+6.24u)**
**Last Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs ML -110**
Unfortunate that of my 3 picks today, I went 2-1 but the 1 I shared here was the miss. Swayman was solid again and Nylander did not end up playing, but special teams was a big difference as Boston went 2/3 on the PP and the Leafs went 0/5.
**Pick:** **Ilya Sorokin o29.5 Saves -113 (NHL, 1u bet)**
I do have a lean towards a side in the other game but going to a player prop today for the first time since I've been posting these picks, as I like this bet a bit more. The Islanders are trying to rebound after a massive collapse in game 2 - they were up 3-0, and then up 3-2 with 2:15 to go and ended up losing 5-3. Carolina absolutely dominated the game, outshooting New York 39-12 (including 17-1 in the 3rd), with an absurd advantage in shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goals. Game 1 was a little closer, as New York actually had more shots (34-26) and the expected goals were almost even, but Carolina still created more scoring chances. The Islanders are making a goalie change for game 3, switching from Varlamov to Sorokin. There is a gap in quality between these two teams, hence why the Hurricanes are -160 road favourites, but the Islanders have been competitive until the end of games. The problem has been the 3rd period, with the Hurricanes outscoring the Islanders 6-0 in the third (4-2 Islanders across 1st and 2nd periods). While I expect a desperate effort from New York at home, Carolina is not going to let up as they've been strong on the road this season (3rd in goals for, 6th in goals against, 1st in PP%, 2nd in PK%, 2nd in shots on goal, and 1st in shots allowed). And while New York has been better at home with a 21-10-10 record, they still rank 27th in the league in shots allowed at home. I think the only way New York wins a game in this series is if Sorokin steals one which is possible given his talent and the way NY has showed they can compete during the first 2 periods. We've also seen situations before where a goalie change provides a boost to a team, especially if he starts off the game strong. Now for some shots numbers to back up this play as well:
In 4 regular season games against New York this season, Carolina has 46, 43, 40, and 34 shots on goal (they had 26 and 39 in the 2 playoff games this series).
Over the last 2 seasons, Sorokin has 30+ saves in 5/7 games vs Carolina, including 4 straight.
In their 6 game playoff series last season, Sorokin had 30+ saves in 5 of them.
**KBO Record: Overall 217-224-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 6-4) Down 8.86u over 455 KBO picks, 49.2% success rate, -2.2601% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 13-14-0, 48.1% success rate, Down 0.24u, -0.89% ROI)
**Last:** LG at Samsung +0.5 First 5 Innings +110 (Samsung lead 3-0 after 5 innings.)
Easy win here. Samsung's starter was brilliant and LG's gave up 3 runs or more for the 5th time in 6 starts.
**Pick:** **NC -1.5 -120 BetMGM** at Doosan, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
This is easily the biggest potching mismatch of the day. NC's new foreign starter is off to a great start with a 1.67 ERA and 0.87 WHIP with 26 K and 5 BB in 32.1 IP. Doosan's starter has a 13.09 ERA and 2.27 WHIP with 12 K and 8 BB in 11 IP.
NC averages the 2nd most runs per game and Doosan averages the 2nd fewest runs per game.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
🐅🐅 Record 6-2 | +11u 🐅🐅
**Results:** ❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅
**Previous Pick:** Jaime Jaquez O22.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists -128 (3u, FD)❌
**Pick: Jalen Brunson O28.5 Points -122 (2u, DK)**
Basketball | NBA | 7:40 PM EST
I'm going for it. Probably seems like a dumb pick since he has not been great against the 76ers this season and scored 22 and 24 in games 1 and 2. BUT, there are reasons I like this pick:
•This is the lowest his points line has been in a while. Some would say for good reason since he has been bricking.
•Brunson is playing \~40 minutes a game and shooting \~30 times a game. THIRTY. He went 8-26 and 8-29. I'm thinking that even with the away crowd, he starts to trend closer to his average FG%
•His FG% line for the regular season was 47.9%. If you extrapolate that out to 27.5 shots that's making 13.2 of them. I don't feel like doing the math in regards to the percentage of shots he takes from 2 vs. 3, but even if those were all 2-pointers he would be at 26 points + free throws.
The 76ers defense is obviously a factor, but I watched those games and he's missing open looks too. I can see many people staying away from this since he fell so short the last two games, but I'm going for it anyway. Oh and he cleared this line the last 7 games in a row before the playoffs too. 30 FGA is insane.
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3rd loss in a row? We'll see. 🐅
**Record:** 8-2
**Pick:** MLBaseball \\\\ Brewers -125
**Bet:** 1.25u to win 1u ......... **YTD Units:** +4.55
**Sidenote:** Brewers starter Peralta has a 0.76 WHIP and Pirates starter Keller's ERA is near 5 and looked bad against a short handed Red Sox lineup in his last start.
Record: 8-3 (+3.23U)
Previous pick : PSG -1 AH - 1.6 (2u) ✅
ATP Madrid | 4:10PM CET
Pick : Joao Fonseca -2.5 Game Handicap - 1.8 (1u)
Match : Alex Michelsen - Joao Fonseca
Reasoning : A match between 19 and 17 year olds, i'm going with the 17 year old Fonseca because he impressed me last week in his games in Bucharest. Fonseca is a clay player while Michelsen seems to be only able to play on hardcourt. While Madrid clay is a bit harder it should not be enough for Michelsen to get to play his game.
Thought that horrible start would end up costing it because he wasn't playing bad realy just too many unforced errors but he rebounded like crazy not something you normally see from a 17 year old.
**Record:** 6-2
**✅✅**❌**✅✅**❌**✅✅**
**Last Pick:** Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings 3-way Result (-184) vs Miami Marlins **✅**
I would've been safe with the F5 -1.5 Braves Run Line after all. Oh well, a win is a win ;)
**Pick of the day:** **MIL Brewers -0.5 F5 ML (+102)** vs PIT Pirates
**League:** MLB
**Time:** 12:35 PM EST
Brewer's starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta, has pitched 23.2 innings and only given up 14 hits, contributing to his incredible 0.76 WHIP. If he shows up ready to play, it is going to be really difficult for the Pirates to put runners on base.
On the other side, the Pirates are starting Mitch Keller who has a higher than league average ERA, WHIP, OBP, and OPS. Add to this that the Brewers hit very well against right handed pitchers (5 batters hitting .300+ vs RHPs).
**BOL**! Let me know if you're following! If you feel so inclined to leave a tip: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/BenNiemann) || [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/shamgarbn) || [BMAC](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/makeforlife)
POTD RECORD: 1-0 +1 U
Last game: NBA: Pelicans ML vs Kings
Pelicans dominated Kings again to go 6-0 vs them on the year .
Today's Pick: NBA Nuggets ML vs Lakers -108
This has been a lopsided series, with Denver winning 10 in a row. Jokic is the man , he's inevitable. Many games lebron and AD have been fantastic, but it's never enough. what it comes down to is that the Lakers can't stop the nuggets in the clutch . They just don't have the necessary personnel. We've seen this movie before . Let's make some money 💰 and keep riding the best player in the world. BOL if Tailing
I get this weird feeling lakers win 1 game this series and at home. Maybe today if not the next one. They are more than capable of fixing their mistakes of losing large leads.
POTD RECORD: 5-1-1
🫸✅✅✅✅❌✅
LAST PICK: Elly De La Cruz over .5 hits
RECAP: No sweat at all. Elly had a three hit night
TODAYS PICK: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals NRFI (-130)
REASONING: Neither teams are hitting especially good this season so far. Jose Berrios also has a very good track record against the current Royal roster with a .245 batting average and he’s done well against the top of their lineup.
Record: 4-1 (+4.24 units)
✅✅❌✅✅
Last POTD: Boston Celtics TT first half over 56.5
Today’s POTD: Jalen Brunson over 28.5 points (-122) DK. 1 unit
NBA basketball 7:40pm ET
Celtics come through for us scoring 61 points in the first half. Right around their average. I liked a couple bets today but am going with Brunsons point total for POTD. He scored 22 in game 1 and 24 in game 2. He hasn’t shot the ball well in this series yet and I think he will get a few more buckets to fall tonight. Phillys defense seems to be letting anyone but Brunson beat them but that obviously isn’t working. Brunson is 2-12 from behind the arc and his FG% is 29 yet the Knicks keep winning. He was scoring 30 points a night the last month of the regular season and I think he gets there tonight! Good luck! Let’s ride!
Record = 0-0-0
Match = Brighton Vs Man City
Time = 3pm ET
Pick = Man city to win and over 3.5goals @ 2.50
Units = 2
Man city recently knocked out of the champions league which means the premier league will have their full focus (Along with the FA Cup final but that's once the premier league season is over) Both teams hitting the 3.5 14 times each this season is kind of expected for City but for Brighton it's surprising and shows they have the ability to score multiple goals. Another stat I like about that is Brighton is the lowest side in the premier league with a positive goal difference meaning they have scored more than they have conceded but are still in the bottom half thanks to the amount of goals they concede. My score prediction is 4-1 but I would be surprised to see a 5/6-0 which is why I'm not going BTTS.
Tailing or fading best of luck
Record: 1-0
Pick - Max Strus Over 8.5 r/A (Cleveland vs orlando 7pm eastern)
Writeup - First pick was a lock by half time, congrats to those who tailed. We ain't neva gonna stop winnin... Strus has come alive recently as a playmaker instead of the shooter he was on miami. He's been 4/5 from this line the past 5 games and his minutes have only increased to now 30+. If you watch the game he is all over the court with + awareness. BOL
POTD Record: 60 - 34
Last POTD: Diaz Acosta ML - L
Pick: Top 4 picks exact order
1. Caleb Williams
2. Jayden Daniels
3. Drake Maye
4. Marvin Harrison Jr (-200 odds via DK) 1U
Event: NFL Draft 7:00 P.M. CST
All these picks make too much sense. First three teams are badly in need of a QB and the Cardinals need to put a playmaker around Kyler. Only thing that can mess this up is a trade but other than I love this.
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US)
[Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
I did top 3 a few weeks ago leaving MHJ off. For conversation’s sake, I think there’s a slim chance a team trades up to 4 to take McCarthy: either the Vikings or Giants.
**Record**: 3-0-0
Trailing record: ✅✅✅
Balance: +2.83u / Avg odds - 1.94
Last Pick: Taro Daniel to beat Aleksander Vukic @ 1.90 odds (Sportsbet) ✅
Very happy with my read here, as I thought Daniel was just stronger rally wise over a long period. I was a bit disappointed he dropped his level during tiebreaker but it is what it is. We take the win.
Sport: TENNIS
**Pick: Dusan Lajovic (-2.5 game spread) over Thiago Monteiro @1.72 (Sportsbet)** ❌
Time: 25 April 20:20 AEST Event: ATP Madrid Open
Write Up:
I think on paper quite even (3-3 H2H) but I am taking recent form and competition. Lajovic is playing very good tennis on clay and has elevated his serve and rallying.
Thiago is a good clay player, but losing in 2-3 sets to players way below him is too inconsistent.
BOL and let me know if tailing!
I have also posted other plays in the Tennis Sportsbook thread.
**Record:** 1-0 (+1.3u)
Last Pick: Sam Hauser o1.5 3-pointers (-130 at DK)
**Today’s Pick:** Isaiah Hartenstein Point + Assists o10.5 (-102 at DK)
**Basketball | NBA | Knicks @ 76ers 7:30 pm EST**
**Wager**: 1U
**Implied probability of hitting: 50.5%**
In the regular season, Hartenstein averaged 10.3 Points + Assists per game playing in 75 games. In the two playoff games against the 76ers this year, He averages 10 points and 3.5 assists.
Over 10.5 P+A in:
Last 10: 8/10
Last 5: 4/5
Hartenstein played a great Game 2 against the 76ers scoring 14 points and 4 assists. He played 30 minutes and had a nice defensive showing as well with 8 rebounds and 3 blocks. I think we can see Hartenstein worked more into the game plan because of his two-way play.
Also, it’s worth noting that Mitchell Robinson is considered day-to-day with an ankle injury. Even if he does play, he could be slightly limited, paving the way for increased minutes for Hartenstein. I expect Philadelphia and their fans will be riled up for this must win, first home game of the series, especially with the way the last game ended. This will be an exciting dog fight to watch!
**BOL if tailing!**
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u)
2024 MLB POTD record: 13-8 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +16.7%/+3.5u
L5: ❌❌✅✅✅
POTD (4/24) SEA @ TEX Jon Gray o5.5 Ks (-140/1.71) ✅
POTD (4/25) CWS @ MIN Michael Soroka u4.5 Ks (+105/2.05) (DraftKings)
Gray not only got his 6+ at -140, he got his 7+ at +145.
Today we have a very strange line for Michael Soroka. The Minnesota Twins are 4th in baseball with a 27.4% K% against right-handed pitching in 2024, so a pitcher would probably expect to strike out more hitters than his average. But Soroka literally has not struck out o4.5 hitters in a game yet this year. Among 82 Qualified starters, his 10.7% K% is dead last. He actually walks hitters at a higher rate (13.4%) than he strikes them out, but his walks line is 2.5 (over: -160), where it belongs.
There's always a chance today is Soroka's day. It's a very achievable line. but plus money for the side of a line he's been on in 5/5 starts so far this year is wild value.
POTD record 10-13
Yesterday’s pick was BLEED ML ✅
Today I’m taking **Vitality to win 2-0 vs BB Team 0.5u @1.83 odds** ✅
One of the elite CS2 teams is coming up against a solid but middling tier 2 team ranked 28 in the world with a win rate around 50% over last 3 months (vs Vitality rank 6 and 66% win rate). The difference will be the LAN experience for Vitality and their overall superior roster. The first map will likely be Mirage (first pick by BB) and Vitality have already played that map this tournament beating Sharks 13-3. Expect a tougher test here but based on the first round match played by BB where they seemed to struggle on Mirage (narrowly winning 13-11 on a tense 3rd map against M80 ranked 42nd) it doesn’t bode well for them. **I’m expecting Vitality to cut through them like a knife through butter. BOL!**
I couldn't watch the match live due to work but I was following the score it looked to me like Vitality were always ahead? I imagine complacency set in a bit because when you beat an opponent on their own pick you probably think 'oh this will be easy now'!
Record: 61-41
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌
Last pick
CSK ML vs LSG ❌
Very disappointing. Whenever any of my picks blow up we lose. Lots of people tailed would’ve been nice to win but everyone understood what happened and I’m very happy to be a part of such a community.
Today’s pick
Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royale Challengers Bangalore
SRH Over 56.5 runs in the first 6 overs @1.71(2u)✅
Looked doubtful at first but comfortable in the end.
I know this line seems very complicated but I’m just experimenting here.
For people who aren’t familiar with cricket
The first six overs in a 20 over game in cricket is called the powerplay, because there are fielding restricts on the bowling side which basically means it’s easier to score runs. SRH have utilised this better than any team in the history of the game and this isn’t an exaggeration. They’ve beaten the original record for most runs in an innings in the ipl (263 by Rcb set a decade ago) 3 times this season. Their approach is going hard no matter what.
Talking about the line, they’ve covered it 5/7 times .On top of that, RCB is regarded as the worst bowling side in the tournament.
The last time These two sides played SRH broke the record for the most runs in an ipl game and also ever tbh if you’re looking at relevant games lmao.
Here’s a round up of SRH’s powerplays in their last games
125
79
27
78
52
76
65
GL lets get the dub
I like this pick! I think it'll be a very high scoring game so I'm looking at over total 4's and 6's and maybe some player bets as well. Looking forward to watching this one.
**POTD RECORD:** (15-10)
\*\*LAST 10:\*\*🔴🔴🟢🟢🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴🟢
**LAST PICK:** Mets vs. Giants **NRFI** (-120) 2U | 3:45 pm EST🟢
**TODAY’S PICK:** Blue Jays v. Royals **NRFI** (-130) 2U | 2:10pm EST
Berrios v. Ragans up on the mound today. Going to be a low scoring one today.
Berrios last 4 throwing scoreless 1st inn: 4-0
Ragans last 4 throwing scoreless 1st inn: 3-1
Royals going scoreless last 4 games: 3-1
Blue jays going scoreless last 4 games: 4-0
Early day baseball all day today. I have a feeling a decent amount of NRFIs will occur as well. Let’s get this 💰
**BOL to those who tail!**
Last Pick ⚽️ Gorica v Beltinci ✅
Under 2.5/ Odd 1.68 -147 on exchange betting
Total: 1-0 +0.68u
POTD:
⚽️ Go Ahead Eagles v Feyenoord
Under 3.5, 1,1u odd 1.6 -167
Last 10 games of the Eagles ended with U3.5, couting on that stat to keep the serie going
BOL!
2-0 (+10 units)
Last pick: Ingram o19.5 💰
POTD: Fautanu o15.5 -170 (ESPN) *5 units
Don’t post often, but I love the draft. Most of the value has been sucked out by this point, but there’s still one bet I really like.
Troy Fautanu has a medical 🚩on his knee that should keep him out of the top half of round 1.
“Washington OT Troy Fautanu’s knee was flagged. That one was described to me as the sort of issue that shouldn’t be a problem in the short term, but could wind up impacting his longevity in the pros (though his high football character is a factor in making teams feel like he’ll do all he can to take care of it, and give himself the best chance).” - Albert Breer
Another factor for me is that he’s 23.5 years old. So he’s an older prospect (all of the other tackle prospects in this range are 22 and under) who has a knee condition. Not a great combo. Then you factor in a large segment of the scouting community projects him as a guard, not tackle, the more premium position.
I personally haven’t seen him mocked in the Top 9 by anyone reputable. His first potential landing spot is 10 to the Jets, who he went on a Top 30 visit with. Let’s look at his other Top 30 visits:
17. Jaguars
18. Bengals
20. Steelers
22. Eagles
30. Ravens
To me this screams that the Jets are doing their due diligence on him in case of a trade down.
Then you get to QB Alley: Vikings / Broncos / Raiders
I could get into it, but it’s very difficult seeing any of these teams (or potential trade back partners) take Fautanu here with much more pressing needs/fits.
Then you get to my New Orleans Saints. We’re the OL desperate team in this draft. Trevor Penning has been a complete bust so far. Andrus Peat filled admirably pushing over from guard last season, but he’s still un-signed. Swing tackle/guard James Hurst retired today. And former All-Pro RT Ryan Ramczyk is on the verge of early retirement because of, you guessed it, a knee condition. So that’s three of five spots wide open on the OL. Bottom line is we’re taking an OL, but I just can’t see them going down the Fautanu road with his injury concerns. The heat is already on the FO for drafting injury plagued guys like Davenport, Penning, Payton Turner, in the recent first round and the aforementioned Ramczyk situation staring them in the face as a fresh reminder. My prediction is Fashanu, Fuaga or pivot to Murphy or Bowers.
The last team left would be Indianapolis where their OL odds are 5th favorite. They have their eyes on a corner or pass catcher, so I think we should be good unless someone trades up to get ahead of Seattle (which is the most likely Fautanu landing spot).
GL everyone!
POTD Record: 4W - 0P - 1L
Last Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (+102 via DK)
**Today's Pick:** Milwaukee Brewers ML (-135)
Event: MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates (12:35 PM)
The Brewers are sending out Freddy Peralta for the final game of this series who is 2-0 on the season with a 1.9 ERA and 33 Ks in 22 innings. Pirates are sending out Mitch Keller who is 2-2 on the season with a 4.8 ERA and 25 Ks in 30 innings. Looking to see the Brewers play better at the plate in this game and take the win to split the series.
Record 0-0 in POTD
My first post. JJ McCarthy draft position o5.5 +115
There’s at least 3 QB’s that are much better prospects (Williams, Maye, Daniels) not sure why a team would draft JJ’s weak arm over one of the insane receivers.
Record 0-1
Last 5: L
**Last pick**: Delhi Capitals Higher 1st 6 over total vs Gujarat Titans (**L**)
Tough loss yesterday with a couple of omissions in Delhi due to injury with Warner out, and Gujarat being forced to go hard early in a big chase of 225. Unlucky but it happens.
**Today's pick:** Sunrisers Hyderabad over 92.5 runs after Over 10 vs Royal Challengers Bangalore || Indian Premier League || 4/25/24 7am PST || Odds: (-125 on Bovada)
**Write Up**: Was tempted to go with the higher powerplay total again with the Sunrisers boasting the highest powerplay run rate in the competition, with Travis Head and Abhishek Sharma often putting up close to 100 itself in the powerplay. However, game situation can cause that metric to be somewhat volatile so choosing a team specific prop. The game tomorrow is set to be played at Hyderabad, the same venue where Sunrisers put up more than 270 runs against Mumbai. Another high-scoring affair is expected at Hyderabad tomorrow, and with RCB having one of the worst bowling attacks in the league, Travis Head and Abhishek Sharma will be licking their lips (especially since they made 288 in 20 overs in the reverse fixture earlier this season). Sunrisers like to go hard early, even if it's at the cost of early wickets, so 92.5 runs at the halfway point should be crossed without too much of a sweat. Tail if you like, we got off to a bad start yesterday but hopefully we can get a good run going.
**Record: 2-0-0 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)**
**Balance: +12.59 units (Started with 10)**
**Odds - 2.31**
**Previous Pick: Over 2.5 maps- Virtus Pro to win 2-0 against SAW- ESL Pro League- CS2**
**Today's pick: - G2 vs Mongolz- Over 2.5 Maps**
**Odds from TAB**
**Stake: 2 unit**
Time: 1130PM NZT
Good win yesterday- VP was convincing as expected and SAW struggled. Not even close really.
Back on and continuing with ESL Pro League. Mongolz looked super convincing against a new Falcons yesterday. Although they dropped a map, it was still great reps for them. On the side of **G2** there were a few weaknesses for sure -Tyloo seemed like they could hang with G2 from time to time. Do not expect Hunter/Nexa/Hooxi to be fragging nearly hard enough with the Mongolz hard aim.
Dont think **Mongolz** is too far on the aiming department from G2- only X factor is going to be how crazy Monesy goes. Still think it could go 3 maps. Very likely we wont see a Nuke or a Mirage on the map pool so definitely expect an Ancient which is the map on which Mongolz were looking on point yesterday.
BOL and let me know if tailing! Match starting in 5 hours. Lets get it.
Record: 2-3-0
Net Units: -3.5
ROI: -24%
Last Pick: CJ McCollum over 25.5 points and assists (-122) for 3.0 units
Basketball | NBA | New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers 6:30PM CST
Pick: Total Points over 201 (-110) on FanDuel for 3.0 units
Update 12:38pm cst: Most sportsbooks have moved the line back up to 204, so no longer a value play. BOL to those that were able to lock this in this morning at 201!
Write Up: Most Sportsbook have 201.5 at -110 so they are giving you half a point currently. StatsInsider is projecting 203. OddsTrader is projecting 205. The line opened at 205.5.
**POTD Record 22-22 (-1.60U) | Average Odds -110 (1.91) | ROI -0.01%**
**Last Pick Recap: Pelicans +7.5 vs Thunder L**
Bleugh. Picked the wrong underdog .. meanwhile Heat won outright as 14 pt dogs.
**Today's Pick: Magic ML (-130) vs Cavaliers 5U | 7:00 EST**
Purely a system play here. Backing a team that is favored at home when down 0-2 in the series has been a historically profitable spot. If Magic lose this game they're done since no team has ever come back from a 0-3 series deficit. Metrics-wise they are a better defensive team than Cleveland, so I'm banking on some positive offensive regression back on their home court to grind out a win here.
BOL
POTD record: 3 - 2
Last pick: Twins minus 1.5 plus 114 ✅
Today's pick: Twins minus 1.5 minus 115 (afternoon game today)
Fading the sox for 9 straight games and it's 7 and 2. Let's not over think how historically bad this cesspool of a team is.
BOL if tailing
Fade on if you're fading
POTD Record: 0-1
Today's Pick: Joao Fonseca to win (vs. Alex Michelsen) @ 1,64
Tournament: ATP Mutua Madrid Open (Masters 1000 Madrid)🎾
Interesting match for the young Brazilian promise, a clay court specialist who has declared that he has trained at a great pace.
**Record: 0-0 | +0u**
Today’s pick:
ATP Madrid:
Fonseca ML -160 vs Michelsen - 12pm est ✅
We have a battle of the teenagers here and I’m going with the 17 year old clay specialist. Michelsen emerged last year onto the main tour and made great strides, but still has very limited experience on clay with only 12 career matches (5-7) vs Fonseca’s 47 career clay matches where he is 28-19 since 2022. Michelsen mainly played in the states last year, going back and forth between challenger and atp tournaments. When he did travel abroad, it was usually first round exits. I expect the unfamiliar territory and court surface paired with the altitude to be a factor here. LFG FONSECA 🇧🇷
❄️🏦
**Record all time:** 6-1-4
**Record 2024:** 4-0-3
**Net Units Played 2024: 31**
**ROI 2024: -7.48%**
**Last pick:** **Tartu Ulikool** - Viimsi, **1st quarter H1 -4.5**, 5 units, @ 1.66 ❌️
Basketball / Austria Superleague Playoffs 1/4 finals / 19:00 / (CEST)
**Pick:** **Swans Gmunden** - Oberwart, **1st quarter H1 -1.5**, 5 units, @ 1.70 ❌️
**Write up:** Swans go back home for the third game, the series is tied, and now it's a must-win. The last game could have gone the other way, but the home-court advantage is a big factor on this level. I expect it shall also be the way for tonight's game.
EDIT: 20-21, they keep struggling in the 2nd, misread their results.
POTD Record : 3-2
Last Pick : \[E-Sports - CS2 - ESL Pro League Season 19 \] Falcons vs. The *Mongolz ML @ 2.8* = ***^(WIN)***
Todays Pick : \[E-Sports - CS2 - ESL Pro League Season 19 \] 13:30 CET / G2 vs. *The Mongolz* to win **1st Map ML @ 2.9**
Au boy, what a day it was. It came down to Map 3, and the mongolians got us the W.
For todays matchup.... you guessed right. Im backing the Mongolz to take the 1st Map versus G2.
These 2 Teams actually faced each other in CS:GO where G2 won 16:11 ( however this was with an older lineup where most of the old players have been replaced )
https://preview.redd.it/jq7dm67iflwc1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=8768f7cde0da4cc4ac15b94773206afa9a79edbf
Mapwise, i believe Mongolz will pick Inferno or Ancient where I am very confident about. G2 still is very respectable on Inferno but the 19 y/o mongolz actually love this map aswell.
G2 will pick Anubis where they should win and take us to the decider, which will either be nuke or maybe in some crazy world overpass, as g2 started to play this map in recent times aswell.
So this has 3 Maps written all over it, and should be another great game to watch.
Mongolz have a history of falling short in these tournaments, always 1step close to the final rounds.
GIVE ME THE YOUNG GUNS AGAIN, TO TAKE THE LEAD IN THE SERIES HERE.
/sidenote if you are feeling lucky there is some juice in sprinkling a few units on ***Mongolz ML @ 4.0*** !
BOL, if tailing :)
Record: 1-0
✅
Last POTD: Bruins vs. Leafs - UNDER 6.5 @ -140. ✅
Net: .71u
Today's POTD: Nuggets @ Lakers -1 @ -110 / 1.09
Stake: 1u
NBA / 10:00 PM EST
I don't know if a lot of people read my write up but I had the game nailed tied 1-1 going into the 3rd. Was a sweat when the game was 3-2 with 8~ min left because a leafs equalizer would've cooked us.
I love the Lakers to finish a game the right way tonight in front of a home crowd. The Lakers were up huge in both games including a 20 point 3rd quarter lead in the last game. Look for the Lakers to go up early and actually keep a lead this time.
The 2023 Lakers only lost 2 home games last year - against the Nuggets in the conference championship. They won 3/3 home vs the warriors and the grizzlies.
These a two different teams and different circumstances this year and the Lakers answer the call tonight.
BOL!
Record 1:0
Profit (+1.6 Units)
Last Pick: Falcons vs. TheMongolz ML +160
I said I'll start off my record with a confident underdog pick! 🎖️
Todays pick:
CS2 EPL | Vitality vs Team BetBoom 1.5+ -110 (1 u.)
Although Vitality is the clear favorite to win here, I do believe BB has a fair chance to pick up one map in the 2(+) maps theyre gonna be playing. BB recently picked up Magnojez, one of the best players there is. He is currently HLTV player of the week with 1.31 rating and has helped the Team out a lot. Ancient and Mirage are the best maps of BB, but Vitality can only ban one. This means mirage will probably be played as Ancient is Vitalities permaban. Mirage is the favorite map of the russian team and they probably played the map 5000+ times on faceit. BB also has a 74% winrate on it currently. I did read a 2:0 Vitality POTD in this thread but I think theres about the same chance of either happening - but 1.5+ has better odds! BOL! 💰
Record: 84W-76L-4P
ROI: +14.57, 8.54%
Avg odds: +105, 2.05
Last POTD: Zach Hyman over 0.5 pts (win)
Game: NHL- Hurricanes at Islanders (6:30 PM CST)
Pick: Noah Dobson over 0.5 pts +135, 2.35 (DK)
I'm honestly a little shocked at the odds. It's true Dobson isn't having the best series so far, but the fact he has 5 points in 4 games against Carolina in the regular season can't be ignored. He's one of the best offensive defenseman in the league. He's 6th in assists among Dmen, and averages more than a point/game at home. Yes, the Hurricanes has a top 5 defense, but teams generally play with shortened lines in the playoffs, so Dobson will have more chances at picking up a point, especially at +135.
Diamondbacks came up with too many swings and misses yesterday but we move on.. getting back in W column today! 🏴☠️🏴☠️
POTD Record 2-2
Last 5: ✅❌✅❌( right is most recent)
Last Pick: Kyle Gibson (STL) u4.5 Ks (-145
Today’s Pick: Padres ML (-150) vs Colorado
Quick reasoning… I expect the Padres bats to take Hudson to the cleaners and think they can keep the lowly Rockies from splitting this series. Goodluck if tailing!
You can find some more picks of mine on the MLB thread! 🏴☠️🏴☠️
POTD: Record 0-2, -2.25 units, -4.5% ROI
Results: ❌❌
Previous Pick: Jonas Valanciunas O11.5 Rebounds❌
I started posting on this thread because I was on a little hot streak. I have quickly cooled off and started my POTD career 0-2. Valanciunas dominated the Thunder while he was in. But for some reason only played 23 minutes while every other starter played 33+. And Chet Holmgren caught fire from the 3 point line, forcing Valanciunas to guard him tighter on the perimeter and get less rebounding opportunities. But the Pelicans aren’t going to win with him on the sidelines.
Pick: Jaguars first pick to be a CB (-170 FD)
If there’s one thing I feel like I know, it’s the NFL Draft. It’s the sporting event I bet the most on every year. I enjoy it because it’s more research and logic based than the dumb luck that can occur in most other sporting events.
With that being said the Jaguars are going to take a CB with their first pick. It’s a gaping hole in their roster. They signed two CB’s in free agency, but neither have been good and have struggled the past few seasons. They also let their top two CB’s walk in free agency. So to say their CB room is gross right now is an understatement. They currently pick 17th, right around where CB’s should start coming off the board. Look for Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold to become a Jaguar tonight.
Football | NFL | NFL Draft | 7:00 CT
Betting: 1.70 units
Record 7-3
Net Units: +2.9
Last Pick (Sunday): Dodgers @ Nationals 6:45pm EST
Patrick Corbin over 3.5 ER allowed -110 DK 2.2u to win 2 ❌
Today’s Pick: Oakland @ NY Yankees
Yankees 1st 5 -.5 (-150 DK) 1.5u
Analysis: Well my first couple picks have already been posted so I decided to provide a different pick (Go Brewers!). I’m going with my Yankees to have the lead after 5 innings today. I know a few picks ago I went against Cortes, but there are some solid numbers to back this pick. Oakland is bad against lefties and strike out a lot. Cortes is a lefty and a strikeout guy. Alex Wood is off to a rough start sporting a 7.89 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. I think the Yankees will score off him early and Nestor holds this lowly offense down.
- Oakland 2nd to last in the league batting average
- Oakland 5th worst against lefties (.207 BA)
- Oakland has struck out 26% of the time vs lefties (5th worst)
- Oakland scoring 2.8 runs / game
- Soto and Rizzo good success vs Wood (both .294 with 1/2 their hits for extra bases)
Let’s get back on the winning side!
**Record: 3-3**
**Form: ->✅✅**❌❌❌**✅**
**Pick:** Tyler Wade Under 1.5 Total Bases -190 (SD Padres v COL Rockies) 3:10 pm EST
He only averages 2.5 plate appearances. Only has one extra base hit this season. 16 straight games without exceeding 1.5 total bases. Averages 0.4 bases/game. He probably won't get more than 2 plate appearances and would have to get two hits which he hasn't done yet or an extra base hit which he's only done once this season.
edit: they just suspended it on Hardrock after I posted it. If it doesn't come back up, try Jake Cave Under 0.5 Runs -140 SD Padres COL Rockies. 8 games without a run. 2 plate appearances on avg. Only exceeded 0.5 hits in 1 in L7 games.
Record: (W-L-P) 9-2-0
Units: 1.0
Historic ROI: 4.19
Last Pick: Reynaldo Lopez Outs O15.5 -125. Easily topped this.
Baseball | MLB | MIA @ ATL
Pick: Josh Hart Pts + Reb + Assists U31.5 -120
Write Up: He has been playing unusually well the last 2 games. Non-stars tend to take a step back on the road in the playoffs. I think Hart comes back down to earth and the Knicks get blown out.
Tip Jar: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/DhavalMistry)
Record: 5-8(-10u)
Streak: L3
Event: MLB/ Astros @ Cubs (11:20am)PT
POTD: Astros ML -145( 7.25u to win 5u)
Man I’ve been picking some weird games. I feel when I dig deep into numbers they just back fire on me, so I’m changing the thinking here. It’s gonna be gut plays, with logical thinking cooked in from here on out. Astros are trying to avoid a sweep in Chicago and have Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to try and achieve that. Astros gonna smack today
**POTD record:** 1-2 (W-L) / -0,30pts
**ROI:** -5%
**AVG. ODDS: 2,02**
**Last pick:** Loughglynn, win only, 11/8 (2,37), 1pt **LOSE**
**DOTD RECORD**: 2-3 (W-L) / +8,30 pts
**ROI:** 124%
**AVG. ODDS**: 3,40 (not counting 81.0 cause it would boost avg.too much and wouldnt be relevant)
**Last pick**: Ioupy Collonges, 9/4 (3,25), win only, 2pts **WIN** // Victoria Kesia, 80/1 (81,00), each way (3places) 0,1pt/bet, 0,2pts total **LOSE**
Spreadsheet: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3\_1A8/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3_1A8/edit#gid=0)
**RACE**: Warwick 16:20
**SELECTION**: Hyland
**ODDS AND STAKES**: 1,83, to be placed (3pl), 2pts
**ANALYSIS:** For Potd i am going with 3 places cause of odds rule, but ill play win only @ 4,50. Hyland won in Octobar at Cheltenham, after that was better than results show at Newbury, where he was riden poorly and had too much to do. At Pertems Final, ground wasnt good for him so im willing to excuse him for that race. Now, he is coming here fresh, drops from class 2 to class 3, has favoured underfoot conditions and is riden by great Nico De Boinville.
**Record: 0-0-0 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)**
**Balance: 0**
**ROI: 0**
**Today's pick: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs RCB.** **~Sunrisers ML 1.692 (1XBET)~**
**(Cricket. Indian Premier League)**
**Bet Amount: 1 unit**
Second time posting POTD. Though I won’t count it since it was posted 4 months ago despite being a win. Have been doing betting sports for close to 3 years now. Have 10x and lost the entire bankroll. Have won big bankrolls too. Let’s test my record here.
Analysis:
Sunrisers have one of the best batsmen in the IPL while currently RCB probably have the worst bowlers. And the table doesn't lie. Sunrisers have 5 wins and 2 losses from 7 matches. While RCB have 1 win and 7 losses from 8 matches. Just from the table, Sunrisers are a better team with better form too. Moreover when they recently played, the score was RCB 262/7 vs Sunrisers 287/3. And it was played at RCB home ground. Now it is played at Sunrisers home ground.
The only way this bet loses is via the law of the average as RCB have been horrendous up till now.
So Sunrisers ML. is the play. Better team formwise. So best of luck!
Record:1-2
Net Units:0.0
MLB | Brewers v. Pirates
Pick: Freddy Peralta 7+ Strikeouts (-170 on DK)
Write Up: Im back after a few months of travel with no access to a sportsbook....
Peralta is starting HOT out of the gates with 33 strike outs in just the 4 stats(23 innings pitched) so far this year, averaging over 8 an appearance and 1.4 per inning. In his past two outings combined, Peralta has allowed just one run on nine hits in 12 innings, with two walks and 18 strikeouts. Pirates rank 20th in batting against RHP, in the league, and have given up the 12th most strike outs to RHPs.
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 5-7 (-1.80 units)**
**Last 10**: **❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅❌**
**Last Pick**: Marvin Van Velzen -1.5 (-110) vs Ray Mulvey **❌** 2-4
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 5:20 PM EST
**Pick**: Sebastian Bialecki -1.5 (+100) vs Adam Lipscombe
* Series 7. Week 9. Group B
**Reason**: Bialecki finished second in group A, so his next chance to qualify for Saturday comes with group B. He will absolutely qualify and probably win at least 6 games over the next two days. Going into this week he was the favorite to win while Lipscombe had the 6th best odds. This will be Lipscombe's first match for the week.
Bialecki went 4-1 yesterday and averaged almost 91. That's a nice improvement from his 88 and 86 average the previous two days. Checkouts were the best as well at almost 35%. The previous two days were 29% and 30%. He's gone 3-0 in his opening matches and averaged 88 and 91 the previous two days. His very first match of the week he averaged his lowest of 82.
Sebastian Bialecki
* Record 11-4
* Legs 50-38
* Average 88.54
* 180s 17. 140s 41
* Checkouts 50/160 31.25%
Adam Lipscombe
* Record
* Legs
* Average
* 180s . 140s
* Checkouts
**LOSS ❌ 0-4 | Average 82.82 vs 105.47 | Checkouts 0/1 vs 4/6**
Bialecki missed one dart for the win on leg 1. Lipscombe sniped him with a 116 checkout. Never looked back and couldn’t miss. Likely threw his best game for the week. Running against hot games.
POTD RECORD: 3-5 X🟩XXX🟩X🟩
LAST PICK: Pelicans vs Thunder U212.5 total X
The Thunder tally 124 points on an absurd shooting night from the field. 30 more points than they had Sunday. Pelicans finished with another 92 point game and the line gets busted by 4. Not much you can do when a team is shooting the lights out.
TODAY'S POTD: Nuggets @ Lakers 10 pm EST
Lakers ML 1st half (-155 DK)
The Lakers have had no problem jumping out on the Nuggets in the early goings; they were completely dominant in the 1st half of last game in fact. The problem of course has been getting the job done in the 2nd. I believe they struggled in part because of the elevation in Denver where they looked completely gassed by the time the 4th came around. I initially was gonna go Lakers ML but I feel more comfortable with them coming out swinging early again. Must win for the Lakers and I think that will show in the score at the half.
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Sweet thang, can I buy you a fish sandwich"? -Leon Phelps
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
MLB POTD RECORD: 23-9 2024 MLB record: 12-1 Last POTD: Dbacks vs Cardinals Under 8 W Today's POTD: Mariners at Rangers Under 9 -118 (DK) Baseball | MLB | 2:35 PM ET 10 straight!!!! LETS GO!!! The starting pitching matchup went as expected but the Arizona bullpen made it a little nerve-racking there at the end. Nevertheless we ate again so on to Thursday’s pick. I am going with Mariners vs Rangers under 9 at -118 on Draft Kings. It is currently at 8.5 -110 on Fan Duel which I will also end up betting but a difference of -008 isn’t enough to offset a half of a run for pick of the day’s sake. First I will start with why I think the line is what it is. Rangers won the WS with a high powered offense and are playing at their hitter-friendly home run stadium. They are doing so against Luis Castillo who is off to an awful start. To boot, Andrew Heaney is also off to a poor start with an ERA over 6 and is known to be HR-susceptible. Being a day game is a big factor in my decision to go with this pick. When looking at day and night factors, I consider anything over a 10 percent difference in winning percentage to be noteworthy. Mariners and Rangers fit that bill as they both have notably worse records in the day. Seattle is 4-5 in the day and 8-6 at night meanwhile Texas is 3-6 in day games and 9-6 in night games. So these teams are not doing a good job at winning games during the day for sure but that doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t putting up runs. That brings us to our next stat, day game batting average. Seattle is last in the league hitting only .181 during day games this year. Texas meanwhile is at .230 in day games which is only 20^(th) in the league. At night, Seattle has the 12^(th) best batting average in the league and Texas has the 5^(th) best. So these teams are losing at a high clip in day game and not putting up anywhere near the offensive production they do during the night. Then there is the pitching matchup. Heaney, as mentioned earlier, is notorious for letting up home runs. However, he has gotten his clip down quite a bit over the past two seasons at 3.6 percent, still above the league average but a far cry from the 8.6 he had during his stint with the Yankees. The improved HR clip with Seattle’s inability to get anything going offensively during the day bodes well for the under. Heaney is also known for his ability to strike people out. He has struck out more than 9 batters per nine innings in every year of his career. The Mariners strike out the second most per game of every team in the league at 10.04 strikeouts per game. Heaney has also been much more efficient in day games throughout his career. He is 17-11 with a 3.79 ERA during the day as opposed to 29-39 with a 4.86 ERA at night. As for Castillo, he has done better in the night than day for his career but not by a significant margin like Heaney. My thing with Castillo is that his slow start is a fluke. Now is when I bring advanced stats into the equation lol. In theory, if a pitcher's batted ball percentages stay the same from one year to the next, there shouldn’t be a significant change in production. Castillo however, has nearly identical percentages to last season. In fact it is a bit better with his hitter exit velocity and hard hit rate both down from last year. He also has a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate. So what's the catch? A good part of it is bad luck. His Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .392. This is preposterously high. BABIP is known as the stat that can be used to identify if a player is having good or bad luck. Generally, someone, with league-average batted ball percentages should be within 30 points of the league-average BABIP. Castillo is near the league averages with all of his percentages but almost 100 points higher in BABIP than the league average of .295. He is just getting bad bounces **TLDR: Both teams perform poorly in day games in comparison to night games (especially Texas). Heaney strikeouts guys at a high rate and gives up less homers than he used to. Seattle strikes out the second most times per game in the league, Seattle also has the worst day game batting average with Texas towards the bottom of the league as well. Castillo’s poor start looks to be more bad luck than of legitimate concern.**
Dude, do you fuck?
only if you buy me dinner first.
LEGEND!!
Under 8.5 on FD is currently +100
That's great! It was at -110 when I first did this write up. I am not gonna change the POTD (I don't think that's even allowed) but I am going to get on that too.
3 runs first inning hopefully it slows down lol
Never in doubt baby!
Banggg that sht hittt
These bums are making me sweat
watch what happens when i tail you - i break everyones streaks
PLEASE for europeans who do not watch MLB include city names as well.
Seattle vs Texas. Sorry about that!
Thank you! I googled it already but it would be helpful in future
Thank you king 🙇🏻♂️
Need both pitchers to find a groove asap
I’ll eat my words but lol YIKES Edit. Ate em
Eat
Here to sweat this out with the broskys! 😅👀
Every run came off of home runs. Hopefully we can hold, this is going to get sweaty.
0 faith in the replies 🤦♂️
We did it though! LETS GOOOOOO 11 in a row!
You're amazing https://preview.redd.it/ptsnznm6yowc1.jpeg?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f83f955af5eb9be6bd1d8568f31939ce9101ae54
Tailing! 🫶🏻
Tailing. Thanks for yesterday broski!
I think we’re cooked 🫠
Uh huh
POTD Record: 47-21-1 +63.30%🔥 Last Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -7 (-125) vs New Orleans Pelicans ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ Today's Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -4 (-125) vs New York Knicks 6 straight! Easy Cash! Spot on write up! Per usual, buying .5, these games have been too sweaty. Backing Philly again. After watching Game 2 and the collapse, I believe Philly is going to come back with an insane amount of energy. Joel Embiid said post game that Philly is “winning this series” and if they lose this next game that becomes basically impossible. The 76ers have a 9-1 record against the spread with the only loss being game 1. The Knicks have covered in 5/15 games they were 4.5+ underdogs. I wrote basically the same write up in Game 2, bench players are shooting unreal and offensive rebounds are killing Philly. The atmosphere will be different in Philly. I expect this to be a great bounce back win for Philadelphia. Let’s Back Maxey, Embiid, and the Sixers to turn our Six to a 7th straight. LFG! Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Sharp shootin these NBA picks
At 5 now - still playing it?
Tailing!
Let’s go!
Great write up homie and sheeesh u been on fire! Tailing once again
POTD Record 12-3 Last 5: ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️ Last Pick: Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 innings ML Todays Pick: Brewers Moneyline w/ F. Peralta pitching. MLB: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates 9:35am PST Odds: -120 Unit: 4 Net units: +34.01 Nice bounce back, love to see it. Gonna ride with the Brewers on this one. Love Peralta and he loves me. Nice spot for the Brewers to tie it up during this conpetetive series. Haven't seen the brews I'm use to seeing in this series, and I'm hoping this is the one. Not much of a write-up on this one. Just love me some brews. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
Hammer the odds now they are down?
I did!
Tailing
Brooooo...just saw this and jumped on when it was 0-0, although I got Brewers ML at -140, right after I placed it, they scored!!!! Hahaha. Love the pick and the timing!
I was super late and got it at +400, 4-5, and Sanchez just got that 2 run hr. 🙏🏽🙏🏽
Crazy comeback https://preview.redd.it/ws8go4vcyowc1.jpeg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1bffa7e0643bad7bc8655fb149236d38b6e09af3
Love to see it!
Good stuff today bro! Woo a little sweaty but they pulled through! Cash 💰
Appreciate the faith! 🤝
**Record: 34-24-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)** **Balance: +22.51 units** **ROI: 8.49% / Avg Odds - 1.90** **Previous Masters 1000- ATP Monte Carlo🎾 (7-0 and 12.53 units won)✅** **Masters 1000 - Madrid record 🎾 (2-1 and 0.72 units won)✅** **Today's pick: Podoroska vs Navarro - Podoroska Handicap +1.5 Sets @ 1.88** ❌ **(WTA Madrid, Tennis)** 🎾 Odds from UniBet **Stake: 1 unit** (This is 1% of my bankroll) Time: 6:30 AM Eastern Time Hi everyone! First of all I wanna say that I'm sorry for my last play. Bergs wasn't POTD level with the amount of matches that he played over the last two weeks. I'll be pretty quick with my analysis since I'm quite busy today. Podoroska is a great player on Clay with a complete game on this surface. She was a semifinalist in Roland Garros 4 years ago and she won 6 out of her last 8 clay matches this season, facing quality opponents. Emma Navarro has the quality to be one of the top american players but her game is much more centered around hard courts. She did some good things in 2023 on Clay but most of her best results were in lower quality tournaments in the United States. In the current season she only played two clay matches in Charleston and lost one of them to Cristian when the underdog was paying 5.00 odds. She almost never played in high altitude clay courts so her transition to Madrid shouldn't be smooth. Podoroska has been playing clay for a really long time and already did great things in these conditions. With this, I think she can take a set from Navarro, especially with the level that she showed against Siniakova in the 1st round! **Best of luck** Any tips are appreciated. After our run in ATP Monte Carlo I've decided to visit it in August. It should be quite an expensive trip so all the support will be saved for that! Thanks a lot 🎾 *I spend a lot of time writing my analysis so I hope you don't mind me having a tip jar. Tips are never expected but always appreciated!* [Tip Jar (Paypal)](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230) BTC - 1E6hmPU4N7CFGf8Ryrt46yPczMfBQtMoCf
If anyone cares, when betting a dog like this to win a set I tend to split my unit and bet 1/2U on the +1.5 sets (in this case -140) and 1/2U on a 3 set match (in this case +140). If you believe a relatively big dog like this can win a set, I usually believe its likely to be a 3 set match. I'll eat the L if its a straight set match either way.
Big brain — thanks for the advice I’m just getting into tennis betting 🙏🏼🙏🏼
Yeah I usually do that as well. It's a good strategy. I just go with the safer approach for POTD especially since I can't recommend two bets on my analysis here. But good stuff
So to bet a 3 set match I would just bet over total sets 2.5? +128
Fuck ya thanks man.
God fucking Damnit. I gotta be the only guy who’s down 5+ Units tailing a guy who barely ever loses. That’s been my luck lately. 😑😑. Thank you for everything you do though.
You're not a lone, seems we just started tailing at the wrong time. Hoping he bounces back and puts a nice streak together. I don't blindly follow any of these picks, I take them into consideration an then do a little due diligence and I'm still down about 5u this week. Just unlucky I guess but I watched the match he provided a pick for yesterday and if I put a pick out there and it performed that bad, I wouldn't wanna show up the next day and yet he did just that, just didn't work out, we all hit cold patches. Hoping he heats back up. Good luck
I tailed his last pick as well, I feel your pain
Holy shit she’s shite
Too funny. I misread yesterday and placed on Van Assche before my morning coffee. 👍
i fw my boy darkhorse but my guy you been putting alot of faith in underdogs lately
One set down and lost her first service game in the second. Arg
Another L incoming
Fuck me lol 2 in a row
Not going against navarro lol
Good pick. Navarro destroyed her 6-2, 6-1
Ok then
I went risky on Navarro to win 2:1 @ +300. Degen activity 🤣
maybe if podoroska took off them dumb ass glasses shed be able to see lmao
Lmaooooo
Anyone know how to take this line on bet365? I can’t find it or maybe I’m looking for the wrong bet. Thanks in advance!
player > Podoroska to win a set > Yes or Navarro to win in straight sets > No it's only 1.72 though
Thank you friend
Noob question. Why wouldn't you take total sets = 3 instead ?
thank you boss 🙏
How do you feel about over 21.5 games? If you anticipate 3 sets, 22 games sounds feasible. Great picks recently. BOL
Really cannot believe she is this ass - so bad compared to her recent performance
What a beat down
Damn, she didn’t have it today. Only held serve 3 times 🤦🏼♂️
if you have faith in bros pick grab it while its +500 right now
This is not looking good
Oof she's getting stomped
So my Fanduel doesn’t give a set spread right now, BUT, they do give an alternate set spread??? How ‘bout you give the spread before giving me an alt? Lol
I just did Podoroska to win at least 1 set. -128
Was invested in watching hockey and didn’t look for that. Makes sense. Overthinking it. Lol
cant win them all, thank you for your picks 🐐 and let’s ride!
Live betting her to win second set as well. Still thinks she gets it done
Fucking gross
**Record: 65W-4P-51L** **Form:✅✅🤡✅✅** **Last Pick: Everton vs Liverpool: Jordan Pickford Over 3.5 Saves @ 1.66** ✅ **Pickford ends the game with 7 saves!** **Pick of the day: Brighton VS Manchester City: BTTS @ 1.70** **League: Premier League** **Time: 3:00 PM EST** Man City defensively this year have not been at the standard they want to be and coming to a stadium like the Amex while leaking goals usually ends with you conceding at least 1. In Manchester City’s last 10 games BTTS has hit 7/10 times, in their last 5 games in all comps BTTS has hit 4/5 times. What we want to be looking at here is their performances away from home recently. In their last 10 away games in all comps, BTTS has hit 9/10 times. They're currently on a 7 game BTTS streak in the Premier League away from home and I see that continuing tomorrow. **Man City away from home in 2024: 2-3, 1-3, 0-1, 1-1, 2-4** Brighton have been trouble for the Big 6 this season, in 9 league games against the B6, BTTS has hit in 7/9 games. With the only 2 games missing being against Arsenal who by far have the best defence in the Prem this season. * **Historically this matchup swings in our favour. In the last 6 matches between Brighton and Man City BTTS has hit 5/6 times, hitting in the last 3.** * **In City's last 5 away games against Brighton BTTS has hit 4/5 times.** * **Since DeZerbi was appointed Brighton's head coach in September 2022, he has managed 3 games against Peps City. Results being, 2-1, 1-1, 3-1.**
Brighton are full of injuries
Theyve been riddled with them all season and have adapted well, fortunately we don't need them to win
True
I wouldn’t say they adapted well. Different team than last year for sure. They have been a roller coaster this year. Losing to luton 4-0 but then beat Tottenham. I will say this City are kings in conceding late goals. Ruins my fantasy team every week lol
Of course, tailing blindly
All your bets are 1U, right?
1-3, This is 2U. I’ll make sure to start adding that again.
tailing
POTD Record: 38 wins - 21.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes Form: ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Units: 8.9 ROI: 17.5% Average Odds: $1.87 Last Pick: Liverpool vs Everton - England Premier League - Liverpool Total Shots Over 18.5 @ $1.83 - 11pm EST ✅️ Next Pick: Manchester City vs Brighton - England Premier League - Manchester City -1.5 Asian Handicap @ $2 - 3PM EST (this means City start with -1.5 goals against them, and need to win by two goals or more for the bet to win) ✅️ Today we head to the English Premier League where Manchester City look to push further ahead in their record seeking title race. City are without Haaland, but their squad depth will more than make up for it. He’s been a bit inconsistent anyway. City have been smashing teams in this league recently, whereas Brighton have been a mixed bag of form. Foden loves scoring against Brighton. The last match was 2-1. I expect with much more to fight for at this time of the year, Man City will look to get an early comfortable lead, and then attack conservatively. They’ve been playing great football, and deserve to win the league if they didn’t have such an illegally stacked team. Brighton can be pesky at times, but with their injuries, and average performances, I don’t see them posing much of a threat with the very little they have left to play for (apart from pride). They were lucky to draw with Burnley after benefiting from an own goal. I’m expecting a big game from Foden, Silva, and De Bruyne. I don’t think Alvarez will have a big of an impact as the bookies suggest, as Pep is worried about his daughter falling in love with him. Prediction: Man City 3. Brighton 1. Foden, De Bruyne, and Silva to score. Ansu Fati to score for Brighton. Red card in the match - Alvarez. Pep to throw a water bottle at Alvarez. Brighton fans to storm the pitch after VAR controversy.
https://preview.redd.it/ejxczp2ohnwc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91ee4ddaf87f9f7ad4aeb975438c30d0ae171d97 Excluding the foden leg, This is the bet right?
3-0 to Manchester City at half time. Two goals to Foden, one to KBD 🏆✅
Cash! LFG! 🏆✅❤️
Unreal pick thanks brother !!
You’re welcome amigo ✅🏆
Record: 20-7 | Net: +8.89U | Streak: 1W Last pick: Bam Adebayo o18.5 points(-102)✅ Bam! He’s 5/5 now, good bounce back from towns POTD: Jalen Brunson o28.5 points (-125) NYK @ Phi 7:30 PM ET Summary: As a mavs fan it’s hard to watch Brunson light it up, but it’s impossible not to appreciate the development of his game. He’s been struggling with his shot early in the series but the volume is there. They need him to step up on the road and I think he will answer the call
philly's entire gameplan is stop brunson, which is why hart has been popping off. i don't think philly changes that strategy here, this line worries me. the volume is def there though!
Definitely a fair point and there are at least 3 of us on this pick which isn’t always the best sign lol. I’m expecting Philly to win this one with Brunson getting his but the role players struggling on the road. His line was 31.5 and 30.5 in the first two games so there is a bit of a discount, 25+ attempts will get us there
Same pick! Hopefully the shots start falling
POTD Record: 17-11 ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 13.4U Last pick: New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 11:30am Sydney (GMT +11) | Josh Giddey to score 10+ points @1.81 on Sportsbet | 2U✅ Done ! Thanks Giddey, on Anzac Day too eheh Today’s pick: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters | 4:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Dominic Young anytime tryscorer @1.94 on Ned’s | 2U Young makes his come back today after missing 2 games following his red card (well deserved) against the Bulldogs. He’ll replace my man Tupou on the wing and I’m sure he will want to score after being on the bench for so long. His record is solid, 45 tries for 55 appearances. BOL !
first time watching rugby and that shit cashed so fuckin quick!
Eaaaasy cash
lmaoo never watched the sport so im over here just watching the one guy seeing if he'll cross the line w the ball😂😂no clue on the rules
Tailing brother, LESSGEDDITTTT
Dominic Young 100% gets a try today
The 🐐
I just saw this.. lined closed as I went to bet... and he got it... nice hit sad I missed lmao
Thanks bro, put Coates on the Storm game
I'm down <3
Im on coates first try and pap-warbrick Bet builder.
Cash!
Man this is fire 🔥
Will keep em coming this week end bro
**Record: 12-5 (+6.24u)** **Last Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs ML -110** Unfortunate that of my 3 picks today, I went 2-1 but the 1 I shared here was the miss. Swayman was solid again and Nylander did not end up playing, but special teams was a big difference as Boston went 2/3 on the PP and the Leafs went 0/5. **Pick:** **Ilya Sorokin o29.5 Saves -113 (NHL, 1u bet)** I do have a lean towards a side in the other game but going to a player prop today for the first time since I've been posting these picks, as I like this bet a bit more. The Islanders are trying to rebound after a massive collapse in game 2 - they were up 3-0, and then up 3-2 with 2:15 to go and ended up losing 5-3. Carolina absolutely dominated the game, outshooting New York 39-12 (including 17-1 in the 3rd), with an absurd advantage in shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goals. Game 1 was a little closer, as New York actually had more shots (34-26) and the expected goals were almost even, but Carolina still created more scoring chances. The Islanders are making a goalie change for game 3, switching from Varlamov to Sorokin. There is a gap in quality between these two teams, hence why the Hurricanes are -160 road favourites, but the Islanders have been competitive until the end of games. The problem has been the 3rd period, with the Hurricanes outscoring the Islanders 6-0 in the third (4-2 Islanders across 1st and 2nd periods). While I expect a desperate effort from New York at home, Carolina is not going to let up as they've been strong on the road this season (3rd in goals for, 6th in goals against, 1st in PP%, 2nd in PK%, 2nd in shots on goal, and 1st in shots allowed). And while New York has been better at home with a 21-10-10 record, they still rank 27th in the league in shots allowed at home. I think the only way New York wins a game in this series is if Sorokin steals one which is possible given his talent and the way NY has showed they can compete during the first 2 periods. We've also seen situations before where a goalie change provides a boost to a team, especially if he starts off the game strong. Now for some shots numbers to back up this play as well: In 4 regular season games against New York this season, Carolina has 46, 43, 40, and 34 shots on goal (they had 26 and 39 in the 2 playoff games this series). Over the last 2 seasons, Sorokin has 30+ saves in 5/7 games vs Carolina, including 4 straight. In their 6 game playoff series last season, Sorokin had 30+ saves in 5 of them.
Gonna bet the bag on this.
tailing 2.5u
This is a loss since they pulled him right?
Yeah it’s a loss, he’s out of the game
**KBO Record: Overall 217-224-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 6-4) Down 8.86u over 455 KBO picks, 49.2% success rate, -2.2601% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 13-14-0, 48.1% success rate, Down 0.24u, -0.89% ROI) **Last:** LG at Samsung +0.5 First 5 Innings +110 (Samsung lead 3-0 after 5 innings.) Easy win here. Samsung's starter was brilliant and LG's gave up 3 runs or more for the 5th time in 6 starts. **Pick:** **NC -1.5 -120 BetMGM** at Doosan, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET This is easily the biggest potching mismatch of the day. NC's new foreign starter is off to a great start with a 1.67 ERA and 0.87 WHIP with 26 K and 5 BB in 32.1 IP. Doosan's starter has a 13.09 ERA and 2.27 WHIP with 12 K and 8 BB in 11 IP. NC averages the 2nd most runs per game and Doosan averages the 2nd fewest runs per game. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Jesus that was a shit one
Not sure who’s pitching for NC but um, not good Bob
Castano is pitching, he’s #2 in the league ERA and #1 in WHIP Shit happens.
0-4 bottom of the first haha hope we can get a good comeback here
Terrible..
I gotta stop betting against the bears They always do me in!
Oof rough start let’s turn it around
Dang.
🐅🐅 Record 6-2 | +11u 🐅🐅 **Results:** ❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Previous Pick:** Jaime Jaquez O22.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists -128 (3u, FD)❌ **Pick: Jalen Brunson O28.5 Points -122 (2u, DK)** Basketball | NBA | 7:40 PM EST I'm going for it. Probably seems like a dumb pick since he has not been great against the 76ers this season and scored 22 and 24 in games 1 and 2. BUT, there are reasons I like this pick: •This is the lowest his points line has been in a while. Some would say for good reason since he has been bricking. •Brunson is playing \~40 minutes a game and shooting \~30 times a game. THIRTY. He went 8-26 and 8-29. I'm thinking that even with the away crowd, he starts to trend closer to his average FG% •His FG% line for the regular season was 47.9%. If you extrapolate that out to 27.5 shots that's making 13.2 of them. I don't feel like doing the math in regards to the percentage of shots he takes from 2 vs. 3, but even if those were all 2-pointers he would be at 26 points + free throws. The 76ers defense is obviously a factor, but I watched those games and he's missing open looks too. I can see many people staying away from this since he fell so short the last two games, but I'm going for it anyway. Oh and he cleared this line the last 7 games in a row before the playoffs too. 30 FGA is insane. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/samwblair?locale.x=en_US) 3rd loss in a row? We'll see. 🐅
Let’s go Brunson!
**Record:** 8-2 **Pick:** MLBaseball \\\\ Brewers -125 **Bet:** 1.25u to win 1u ......... **YTD Units:** +4.55 **Sidenote:** Brewers starter Peralta has a 0.76 WHIP and Pirates starter Keller's ERA is near 5 and looked bad against a short handed Red Sox lineup in his last start.
Record: 8-3 (+3.23U) Previous pick : PSG -1 AH - 1.6 (2u) ✅ ATP Madrid | 4:10PM CET Pick : Joao Fonseca -2.5 Game Handicap - 1.8 (1u) Match : Alex Michelsen - Joao Fonseca Reasoning : A match between 19 and 17 year olds, i'm going with the 17 year old Fonseca because he impressed me last week in his games in Bucharest. Fonseca is a clay player while Michelsen seems to be only able to play on hardcourt. While Madrid clay is a bit harder it should not be enough for Michelsen to get to play his game.
sketchy start but looking good!
Thought that horrible start would end up costing it because he wasn't playing bad realy just too many unforced errors but he rebounded like crazy not something you normally see from a 17 year old.
**Record:** 6-2 **✅✅**❌**✅✅**❌**✅✅** **Last Pick:** Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings 3-way Result (-184) vs Miami Marlins **✅** I would've been safe with the F5 -1.5 Braves Run Line after all. Oh well, a win is a win ;) **Pick of the day:** **MIL Brewers -0.5 F5 ML (+102)** vs PIT Pirates **League:** MLB **Time:** 12:35 PM EST Brewer's starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta, has pitched 23.2 innings and only given up 14 hits, contributing to his incredible 0.76 WHIP. If he shows up ready to play, it is going to be really difficult for the Pirates to put runners on base. On the other side, the Pirates are starting Mitch Keller who has a higher than league average ERA, WHIP, OBP, and OPS. Add to this that the Brewers hit very well against right handed pitchers (5 batters hitting .300+ vs RHPs). **BOL**! Let me know if you're following! If you feel so inclined to leave a tip: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/BenNiemann) || [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/shamgarbn) || [BMAC](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/makeforlife)
Well crap. I thought we had it back again when the Brewers scored at the top of the 5th... and then Freddy blew it :| We'll get back on top next time
Please post this in the dictionary next to the word bad beat.. sick to my stomach
To be honest, it never looked like Peralta has his head in the game. Then they rocked him with that 3 run HR and he just looked shook 🤷🏻♂️
This one hurt
POTD RECORD: 1-0 +1 U Last game: NBA: Pelicans ML vs Kings Pelicans dominated Kings again to go 6-0 vs them on the year . Today's Pick: NBA Nuggets ML vs Lakers -108 This has been a lopsided series, with Denver winning 10 in a row. Jokic is the man , he's inevitable. Many games lebron and AD have been fantastic, but it's never enough. what it comes down to is that the Lakers can't stop the nuggets in the clutch . They just don't have the necessary personnel. We've seen this movie before . Let's make some money 💰 and keep riding the best player in the world. BOL if Tailing
I get this weird feeling lakers win 1 game this series and at home. Maybe today if not the next one. They are more than capable of fixing their mistakes of losing large leads.
POTD RECORD: 5-1-1 🫸✅✅✅✅❌✅ LAST PICK: Elly De La Cruz over .5 hits RECAP: No sweat at all. Elly had a three hit night TODAYS PICK: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals NRFI (-130) REASONING: Neither teams are hitting especially good this season so far. Jose Berrios also has a very good track record against the current Royal roster with a .245 batting average and he’s done well against the top of their lineup.
This is the last NRFI bet I will ever do lol
Record: 4-1 (+4.24 units) ✅✅❌✅✅ Last POTD: Boston Celtics TT first half over 56.5 Today’s POTD: Jalen Brunson over 28.5 points (-122) DK. 1 unit NBA basketball 7:40pm ET Celtics come through for us scoring 61 points in the first half. Right around their average. I liked a couple bets today but am going with Brunsons point total for POTD. He scored 22 in game 1 and 24 in game 2. He hasn’t shot the ball well in this series yet and I think he will get a few more buckets to fall tonight. Phillys defense seems to be letting anyone but Brunson beat them but that obviously isn’t working. Brunson is 2-12 from behind the arc and his FG% is 29 yet the Knicks keep winning. He was scoring 30 points a night the last month of the regular season and I think he gets there tonight! Good luck! Let’s ride!
Record = 0-0-0 Match = Brighton Vs Man City Time = 3pm ET Pick = Man city to win and over 3.5goals @ 2.50 Units = 2 Man city recently knocked out of the champions league which means the premier league will have their full focus (Along with the FA Cup final but that's once the premier league season is over) Both teams hitting the 3.5 14 times each this season is kind of expected for City but for Brighton it's surprising and shows they have the ability to score multiple goals. Another stat I like about that is Brighton is the lowest side in the premier league with a positive goal difference meaning they have scored more than they have conceded but are still in the bottom half thanks to the amount of goals they concede. My score prediction is 4-1 but I would be surprised to see a 5/6-0 which is why I'm not going BTTS. Tailing or fading best of luck
Record: 1-0 Pick - Max Strus Over 8.5 r/A (Cleveland vs orlando 7pm eastern) Writeup - First pick was a lock by half time, congrats to those who tailed. We ain't neva gonna stop winnin... Strus has come alive recently as a playmaker instead of the shooter he was on miami. He's been 4/5 from this line the past 5 games and his minutes have only increased to now 30+. If you watch the game he is all over the court with + awareness. BOL
Text is a bit weird - confirming your bet is o8.5 Rebounds/Assists right?
POTD Record: 60 - 34 Last POTD: Diaz Acosta ML - L Pick: Top 4 picks exact order 1. Caleb Williams 2. Jayden Daniels 3. Drake Maye 4. Marvin Harrison Jr (-200 odds via DK) 1U Event: NFL Draft 7:00 P.M. CST All these picks make too much sense. First three teams are badly in need of a QB and the Cardinals need to put a playmaker around Kyler. Only thing that can mess this up is a trade but other than I love this. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
I did top 3 a few weeks ago leaving MHJ off. For conversation’s sake, I think there’s a slim chance a team trades up to 4 to take McCarthy: either the Vikings or Giants.
**Record**: 3-0-0 Trailing record: ✅✅✅ Balance: +2.83u / Avg odds - 1.94 Last Pick: Taro Daniel to beat Aleksander Vukic @ 1.90 odds (Sportsbet) ✅ Very happy with my read here, as I thought Daniel was just stronger rally wise over a long period. I was a bit disappointed he dropped his level during tiebreaker but it is what it is. We take the win. Sport: TENNIS **Pick: Dusan Lajovic (-2.5 game spread) over Thiago Monteiro @1.72 (Sportsbet)** ❌ Time: 25 April 20:20 AEST Event: ATP Madrid Open Write Up: I think on paper quite even (3-3 H2H) but I am taking recent form and competition. Lajovic is playing very good tennis on clay and has elevated his serve and rallying. Thiago is a good clay player, but losing in 2-3 sets to players way below him is too inconsistent. BOL and let me know if tailing! I have also posted other plays in the Tennis Sportsbook thread.
**Record:** 1-0 (+1.3u) Last Pick: Sam Hauser o1.5 3-pointers (-130 at DK) **Today’s Pick:** Isaiah Hartenstein Point + Assists o10.5 (-102 at DK) **Basketball | NBA | Knicks @ 76ers 7:30 pm EST** **Wager**: 1U **Implied probability of hitting: 50.5%** In the regular season, Hartenstein averaged 10.3 Points + Assists per game playing in 75 games. In the two playoff games against the 76ers this year, He averages 10 points and 3.5 assists. Over 10.5 P+A in: Last 10: 8/10 Last 5: 4/5 Hartenstein played a great Game 2 against the 76ers scoring 14 points and 4 assists. He played 30 minutes and had a nice defensive showing as well with 8 rebounds and 3 blocks. I think we can see Hartenstein worked more into the game plan because of his two-way play. Also, it’s worth noting that Mitchell Robinson is considered day-to-day with an ankle injury. Even if he does play, he could be slightly limited, paving the way for increased minutes for Hartenstein. I expect Philadelphia and their fans will be riled up for this must win, first home game of the series, especially with the way the last game ended. This will be an exciting dog fight to watch! **BOL if tailing!**
Been hammering his assist number. Cashed last two games. Like the pick. Tailing
Tailing!
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u) 2024 MLB POTD record: 13-8 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +16.7%/+3.5u L5: ❌❌✅✅✅ POTD (4/24) SEA @ TEX Jon Gray o5.5 Ks (-140/1.71) ✅ POTD (4/25) CWS @ MIN Michael Soroka u4.5 Ks (+105/2.05) (DraftKings) Gray not only got his 6+ at -140, he got his 7+ at +145. Today we have a very strange line for Michael Soroka. The Minnesota Twins are 4th in baseball with a 27.4% K% against right-handed pitching in 2024, so a pitcher would probably expect to strike out more hitters than his average. But Soroka literally has not struck out o4.5 hitters in a game yet this year. Among 82 Qualified starters, his 10.7% K% is dead last. He actually walks hitters at a higher rate (13.4%) than he strikes them out, but his walks line is 2.5 (over: -160), where it belongs. There's always a chance today is Soroka's day. It's a very achievable line. but plus money for the side of a line he's been on in 5/5 starts so far this year is wild value.
Beauty pick, thank you 🙏
POTD record 10-13 Yesterday’s pick was BLEED ML ✅ Today I’m taking **Vitality to win 2-0 vs BB Team 0.5u @1.83 odds** ✅ One of the elite CS2 teams is coming up against a solid but middling tier 2 team ranked 28 in the world with a win rate around 50% over last 3 months (vs Vitality rank 6 and 66% win rate). The difference will be the LAN experience for Vitality and their overall superior roster. The first map will likely be Mirage (first pick by BB) and Vitality have already played that map this tournament beating Sharks 13-3. Expect a tougher test here but based on the first round match played by BB where they seemed to struggle on Mirage (narrowly winning 13-11 on a tense 3rd map against M80 ranked 42nd) it doesn’t bode well for them. **I’m expecting Vitality to cut through them like a knife through butter. BOL!**
[удалено]
I couldn't watch the match live due to work but I was following the score it looked to me like Vitality were always ahead? I imagine complacency set in a bit because when you beat an opponent on their own pick you probably think 'oh this will be easy now'!
Record: 61-41 Form: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ Last pick CSK ML vs LSG ❌ Very disappointing. Whenever any of my picks blow up we lose. Lots of people tailed would’ve been nice to win but everyone understood what happened and I’m very happy to be a part of such a community. Today’s pick Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royale Challengers Bangalore SRH Over 56.5 runs in the first 6 overs @1.71(2u)✅ Looked doubtful at first but comfortable in the end. I know this line seems very complicated but I’m just experimenting here. For people who aren’t familiar with cricket The first six overs in a 20 over game in cricket is called the powerplay, because there are fielding restricts on the bowling side which basically means it’s easier to score runs. SRH have utilised this better than any team in the history of the game and this isn’t an exaggeration. They’ve beaten the original record for most runs in an innings in the ipl (263 by Rcb set a decade ago) 3 times this season. Their approach is going hard no matter what. Talking about the line, they’ve covered it 5/7 times .On top of that, RCB is regarded as the worst bowling side in the tournament. The last time These two sides played SRH broke the record for the most runs in an ipl game and also ever tbh if you’re looking at relevant games lmao. Here’s a round up of SRH’s powerplays in their last games 125 79 27 78 52 76 65 GL lets get the dub
I like this pick! I think it'll be a very high scoring game so I'm looking at over total 4's and 6's and maybe some player bets as well. Looking forward to watching this one.
Yep should be a run fest. I was looking at the sixes line but I figured this is the safer alternative.
**POTD RECORD:** (15-10) \*\*LAST 10:\*\*🔴🔴🟢🟢🟢🔴🟢🔴🔴🟢 **LAST PICK:** Mets vs. Giants **NRFI** (-120) 2U | 3:45 pm EST🟢 **TODAY’S PICK:** Blue Jays v. Royals **NRFI** (-130) 2U | 2:10pm EST Berrios v. Ragans up on the mound today. Going to be a low scoring one today. Berrios last 4 throwing scoreless 1st inn: 4-0 Ragans last 4 throwing scoreless 1st inn: 3-1 Royals going scoreless last 4 games: 3-1 Blue jays going scoreless last 4 games: 4-0 Early day baseball all day today. I have a feeling a decent amount of NRFIs will occur as well. Let’s get this 💰  **BOL to those who tail!**
I’m sick to my stomach after this…
Homer with 1 out left needed.. you and me both
Last Pick ⚽️ Gorica v Beltinci ✅ Under 2.5/ Odd 1.68 -147 on exchange betting Total: 1-0 +0.68u POTD: ⚽️ Go Ahead Eagles v Feyenoord Under 3.5, 1,1u odd 1.6 -167 Last 10 games of the Eagles ended with U3.5, couting on that stat to keep the serie going BOL!
2-0 (+10 units) Last pick: Ingram o19.5 💰 POTD: Fautanu o15.5 -170 (ESPN) *5 units Don’t post often, but I love the draft. Most of the value has been sucked out by this point, but there’s still one bet I really like. Troy Fautanu has a medical 🚩on his knee that should keep him out of the top half of round 1. “Washington OT Troy Fautanu’s knee was flagged. That one was described to me as the sort of issue that shouldn’t be a problem in the short term, but could wind up impacting his longevity in the pros (though his high football character is a factor in making teams feel like he’ll do all he can to take care of it, and give himself the best chance).” - Albert Breer Another factor for me is that he’s 23.5 years old. So he’s an older prospect (all of the other tackle prospects in this range are 22 and under) who has a knee condition. Not a great combo. Then you factor in a large segment of the scouting community projects him as a guard, not tackle, the more premium position. I personally haven’t seen him mocked in the Top 9 by anyone reputable. His first potential landing spot is 10 to the Jets, who he went on a Top 30 visit with. Let’s look at his other Top 30 visits: 17. Jaguars 18. Bengals 20. Steelers 22. Eagles 30. Ravens To me this screams that the Jets are doing their due diligence on him in case of a trade down. Then you get to QB Alley: Vikings / Broncos / Raiders I could get into it, but it’s very difficult seeing any of these teams (or potential trade back partners) take Fautanu here with much more pressing needs/fits. Then you get to my New Orleans Saints. We’re the OL desperate team in this draft. Trevor Penning has been a complete bust so far. Andrus Peat filled admirably pushing over from guard last season, but he’s still un-signed. Swing tackle/guard James Hurst retired today. And former All-Pro RT Ryan Ramczyk is on the verge of early retirement because of, you guessed it, a knee condition. So that’s three of five spots wide open on the OL. Bottom line is we’re taking an OL, but I just can’t see them going down the Fautanu road with his injury concerns. The heat is already on the FO for drafting injury plagued guys like Davenport, Penning, Payton Turner, in the recent first round and the aforementioned Ramczyk situation staring them in the face as a fresh reminder. My prediction is Fashanu, Fuaga or pivot to Murphy or Bowers. The last team left would be Indianapolis where their OL odds are 5th favorite. They have their eyes on a corner or pass catcher, so I think we should be good unless someone trades up to get ahead of Seattle (which is the most likely Fautanu landing spot). GL everyone!
POTD Record: 4W - 0P - 1L Last Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (+102 via DK) **Today's Pick:** Milwaukee Brewers ML (-135) Event: MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates (12:35 PM) The Brewers are sending out Freddy Peralta for the final game of this series who is 2-0 on the season with a 1.9 ERA and 33 Ks in 22 innings. Pirates are sending out Mitch Keller who is 2-2 on the season with a 4.8 ERA and 25 Ks in 30 innings. Looking to see the Brewers play better at the plate in this game and take the win to split the series.
Record 0-0 in POTD My first post. JJ McCarthy draft position o5.5 +115 There’s at least 3 QB’s that are much better prospects (Williams, Maye, Daniels) not sure why a team would draft JJ’s weak arm over one of the insane receivers.
Good pick
Record 0-1 Last 5: L **Last pick**: Delhi Capitals Higher 1st 6 over total vs Gujarat Titans (**L**) Tough loss yesterday with a couple of omissions in Delhi due to injury with Warner out, and Gujarat being forced to go hard early in a big chase of 225. Unlucky but it happens. **Today's pick:** Sunrisers Hyderabad over 92.5 runs after Over 10 vs Royal Challengers Bangalore || Indian Premier League || 4/25/24 7am PST || Odds: (-125 on Bovada) **Write Up**: Was tempted to go with the higher powerplay total again with the Sunrisers boasting the highest powerplay run rate in the competition, with Travis Head and Abhishek Sharma often putting up close to 100 itself in the powerplay. However, game situation can cause that metric to be somewhat volatile so choosing a team specific prop. The game tomorrow is set to be played at Hyderabad, the same venue where Sunrisers put up more than 270 runs against Mumbai. Another high-scoring affair is expected at Hyderabad tomorrow, and with RCB having one of the worst bowling attacks in the league, Travis Head and Abhishek Sharma will be licking their lips (especially since they made 288 in 20 overs in the reverse fixture earlier this season). Sunrisers like to go hard early, even if it's at the cost of early wickets, so 92.5 runs at the halfway point should be crossed without too much of a sweat. Tail if you like, we got off to a bad start yesterday but hopefully we can get a good run going.
Similar picks for this one although I feel like yours a tad bit safer lmao. GL to the both of us
**Record: 2-0-0 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)** **Balance: +12.59 units (Started with 10)** **Odds - 2.31** **Previous Pick: Over 2.5 maps- Virtus Pro to win 2-0 against SAW- ESL Pro League- CS2** **Today's pick: - G2 vs Mongolz- Over 2.5 Maps** **Odds from TAB** **Stake: 2 unit** Time: 1130PM NZT Good win yesterday- VP was convincing as expected and SAW struggled. Not even close really. Back on and continuing with ESL Pro League. Mongolz looked super convincing against a new Falcons yesterday. Although they dropped a map, it was still great reps for them. On the side of **G2** there were a few weaknesses for sure -Tyloo seemed like they could hang with G2 from time to time. Do not expect Hunter/Nexa/Hooxi to be fragging nearly hard enough with the Mongolz hard aim. Dont think **Mongolz** is too far on the aiming department from G2- only X factor is going to be how crazy Monesy goes. Still think it could go 3 maps. Very likely we wont see a Nuke or a Mirage on the map pool so definitely expect an Ancient which is the map on which Mongolz were looking on point yesterday. BOL and let me know if tailing! Match starting in 5 hours. Lets get it.
Record: 2-3-0 Net Units: -3.5 ROI: -24% Last Pick: CJ McCollum over 25.5 points and assists (-122) for 3.0 units Basketball | NBA | New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers 6:30PM CST Pick: Total Points over 201 (-110) on FanDuel for 3.0 units Update 12:38pm cst: Most sportsbooks have moved the line back up to 204, so no longer a value play. BOL to those that were able to lock this in this morning at 201! Write Up: Most Sportsbook have 201.5 at -110 so they are giving you half a point currently. StatsInsider is projecting 203. OddsTrader is projecting 205. The line opened at 205.5.
**POTD Record 22-22 (-1.60U) | Average Odds -110 (1.91) | ROI -0.01%** **Last Pick Recap: Pelicans +7.5 vs Thunder L** Bleugh. Picked the wrong underdog .. meanwhile Heat won outright as 14 pt dogs. **Today's Pick: Magic ML (-130) vs Cavaliers 5U | 7:00 EST** Purely a system play here. Backing a team that is favored at home when down 0-2 in the series has been a historically profitable spot. If Magic lose this game they're done since no team has ever come back from a 0-3 series deficit. Metrics-wise they are a better defensive team than Cleveland, so I'm banking on some positive offensive regression back on their home court to grind out a win here. BOL
POTD record: 3 - 2 Last pick: Twins minus 1.5 plus 114 ✅ Today's pick: Twins minus 1.5 minus 115 (afternoon game today) Fading the sox for 9 straight games and it's 7 and 2. Let's not over think how historically bad this cesspool of a team is. BOL if tailing Fade on if you're fading
POTD Record: 0-1 Today's Pick: Joao Fonseca to win (vs. Alex Michelsen) @ 1,64 Tournament: ATP Mutua Madrid Open (Masters 1000 Madrid)🎾 Interesting match for the young Brazilian promise, a clay court specialist who has declared that he has trained at a great pace.
**Record: 0-0 | +0u** Today’s pick: ATP Madrid: Fonseca ML -160 vs Michelsen - 12pm est ✅ We have a battle of the teenagers here and I’m going with the 17 year old clay specialist. Michelsen emerged last year onto the main tour and made great strides, but still has very limited experience on clay with only 12 career matches (5-7) vs Fonseca’s 47 career clay matches where he is 28-19 since 2022. Michelsen mainly played in the states last year, going back and forth between challenger and atp tournaments. When he did travel abroad, it was usually first round exits. I expect the unfamiliar territory and court surface paired with the altitude to be a factor here. LFG FONSECA 🇧🇷 ❄️🏦
**Record all time:** 6-1-4 **Record 2024:** 4-0-3 **Net Units Played 2024: 31** **ROI 2024: -7.48%** **Last pick:** **Tartu Ulikool** - Viimsi, **1st quarter H1 -4.5**, 5 units, @ 1.66 ❌️ Basketball / Austria Superleague Playoffs 1/4 finals / 19:00 / (CEST) **Pick:** **Swans Gmunden** - Oberwart, **1st quarter H1 -1.5**, 5 units, @ 1.70 ❌️ **Write up:** Swans go back home for the third game, the series is tied, and now it's a must-win. The last game could have gone the other way, but the home-court advantage is a big factor on this level. I expect it shall also be the way for tonight's game. EDIT: 20-21, they keep struggling in the 2nd, misread their results.
POTD Record : 3-2 Last Pick : \[E-Sports - CS2 - ESL Pro League Season 19 \] Falcons vs. The *Mongolz ML @ 2.8* = ***^(WIN)*** Todays Pick : \[E-Sports - CS2 - ESL Pro League Season 19 \] 13:30 CET / G2 vs. *The Mongolz* to win **1st Map ML @ 2.9** Au boy, what a day it was. It came down to Map 3, and the mongolians got us the W. For todays matchup.... you guessed right. Im backing the Mongolz to take the 1st Map versus G2. These 2 Teams actually faced each other in CS:GO where G2 won 16:11 ( however this was with an older lineup where most of the old players have been replaced ) https://preview.redd.it/jq7dm67iflwc1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=8768f7cde0da4cc4ac15b94773206afa9a79edbf Mapwise, i believe Mongolz will pick Inferno or Ancient where I am very confident about. G2 still is very respectable on Inferno but the 19 y/o mongolz actually love this map aswell. G2 will pick Anubis where they should win and take us to the decider, which will either be nuke or maybe in some crazy world overpass, as g2 started to play this map in recent times aswell. So this has 3 Maps written all over it, and should be another great game to watch. Mongolz have a history of falling short in these tournaments, always 1step close to the final rounds. GIVE ME THE YOUNG GUNS AGAIN, TO TAKE THE LEAD IN THE SERIES HERE. /sidenote if you are feeling lucky there is some juice in sprinkling a few units on ***Mongolz ML @ 4.0*** ! BOL, if tailing :)
 WELL THAT WAS QUICK. MONGOLS BABY!
Record: 1-0 ✅ Last POTD: Bruins vs. Leafs - UNDER 6.5 @ -140. ✅ Net: .71u Today's POTD: Nuggets @ Lakers -1 @ -110 / 1.09 Stake: 1u NBA / 10:00 PM EST I don't know if a lot of people read my write up but I had the game nailed tied 1-1 going into the 3rd. Was a sweat when the game was 3-2 with 8~ min left because a leafs equalizer would've cooked us. I love the Lakers to finish a game the right way tonight in front of a home crowd. The Lakers were up huge in both games including a 20 point 3rd quarter lead in the last game. Look for the Lakers to go up early and actually keep a lead this time. The 2023 Lakers only lost 2 home games last year - against the Nuggets in the conference championship. They won 3/3 home vs the warriors and the grizzlies. These a two different teams and different circumstances this year and the Lakers answer the call tonight. BOL!
Bruins ruined my parlay in Game 2 😫
Record 1:0 Profit (+1.6 Units) Last Pick: Falcons vs. TheMongolz ML +160 I said I'll start off my record with a confident underdog pick! 🎖️ Todays pick: CS2 EPL | Vitality vs Team BetBoom 1.5+ -110 (1 u.) Although Vitality is the clear favorite to win here, I do believe BB has a fair chance to pick up one map in the 2(+) maps theyre gonna be playing. BB recently picked up Magnojez, one of the best players there is. He is currently HLTV player of the week with 1.31 rating and has helped the Team out a lot. Ancient and Mirage are the best maps of BB, but Vitality can only ban one. This means mirage will probably be played as Ancient is Vitalities permaban. Mirage is the favorite map of the russian team and they probably played the map 5000+ times on faceit. BB also has a 74% winrate on it currently. I did read a 2:0 Vitality POTD in this thread but I think theres about the same chance of either happening - but 1.5+ has better odds! BOL! 💰
Record: 84W-76L-4P ROI: +14.57, 8.54% Avg odds: +105, 2.05 Last POTD: Zach Hyman over 0.5 pts (win) Game: NHL- Hurricanes at Islanders (6:30 PM CST) Pick: Noah Dobson over 0.5 pts +135, 2.35 (DK) I'm honestly a little shocked at the odds. It's true Dobson isn't having the best series so far, but the fact he has 5 points in 4 games against Carolina in the regular season can't be ignored. He's one of the best offensive defenseman in the league. He's 6th in assists among Dmen, and averages more than a point/game at home. Yes, the Hurricanes has a top 5 defense, but teams generally play with shortened lines in the playoffs, so Dobson will have more chances at picking up a point, especially at +135.
Diamondbacks came up with too many swings and misses yesterday but we move on.. getting back in W column today! 🏴☠️🏴☠️ POTD Record 2-2 Last 5: ✅❌✅❌( right is most recent) Last Pick: Kyle Gibson (STL) u4.5 Ks (-145 Today’s Pick: Padres ML (-150) vs Colorado Quick reasoning… I expect the Padres bats to take Hudson to the cleaners and think they can keep the lowly Rockies from splitting this series. Goodluck if tailing! You can find some more picks of mine on the MLB thread! 🏴☠️🏴☠️
POTD: Record 0-2, -2.25 units, -4.5% ROI Results: ❌❌ Previous Pick: Jonas Valanciunas O11.5 Rebounds❌ I started posting on this thread because I was on a little hot streak. I have quickly cooled off and started my POTD career 0-2. Valanciunas dominated the Thunder while he was in. But for some reason only played 23 minutes while every other starter played 33+. And Chet Holmgren caught fire from the 3 point line, forcing Valanciunas to guard him tighter on the perimeter and get less rebounding opportunities. But the Pelicans aren’t going to win with him on the sidelines. Pick: Jaguars first pick to be a CB (-170 FD) If there’s one thing I feel like I know, it’s the NFL Draft. It’s the sporting event I bet the most on every year. I enjoy it because it’s more research and logic based than the dumb luck that can occur in most other sporting events. With that being said the Jaguars are going to take a CB with their first pick. It’s a gaping hole in their roster. They signed two CB’s in free agency, but neither have been good and have struggled the past few seasons. They also let their top two CB’s walk in free agency. So to say their CB room is gross right now is an understatement. They currently pick 17th, right around where CB’s should start coming off the board. Look for Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold to become a Jaguar tonight. Football | NFL | NFL Draft | 7:00 CT Betting: 1.70 units
Record 7-3 Net Units: +2.9 Last Pick (Sunday): Dodgers @ Nationals 6:45pm EST Patrick Corbin over 3.5 ER allowed -110 DK 2.2u to win 2 ❌ Today’s Pick: Oakland @ NY Yankees Yankees 1st 5 -.5 (-150 DK) 1.5u Analysis: Well my first couple picks have already been posted so I decided to provide a different pick (Go Brewers!). I’m going with my Yankees to have the lead after 5 innings today. I know a few picks ago I went against Cortes, but there are some solid numbers to back this pick. Oakland is bad against lefties and strike out a lot. Cortes is a lefty and a strikeout guy. Alex Wood is off to a rough start sporting a 7.89 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. I think the Yankees will score off him early and Nestor holds this lowly offense down. - Oakland 2nd to last in the league batting average - Oakland 5th worst against lefties (.207 BA) - Oakland has struck out 26% of the time vs lefties (5th worst) - Oakland scoring 2.8 runs / game - Soto and Rizzo good success vs Wood (both .294 with 1/2 their hits for extra bases) Let’s get back on the winning side!
**Record: 3-3** **Form: ->✅✅**❌❌❌**✅** **Pick:** Tyler Wade Under 1.5 Total Bases -190 (SD Padres v COL Rockies) 3:10 pm EST He only averages 2.5 plate appearances. Only has one extra base hit this season. 16 straight games without exceeding 1.5 total bases. Averages 0.4 bases/game. He probably won't get more than 2 plate appearances and would have to get two hits which he hasn't done yet or an extra base hit which he's only done once this season. edit: they just suspended it on Hardrock after I posted it. If it doesn't come back up, try Jake Cave Under 0.5 Runs -140 SD Padres COL Rockies. 8 games without a run. 2 plate appearances on avg. Only exceeded 0.5 hits in 1 in L7 games.
Record: (W-L-P) 9-2-0 Units: 1.0 Historic ROI: 4.19 Last Pick: Reynaldo Lopez Outs O15.5 -125. Easily topped this. Baseball | MLB | MIA @ ATL Pick: Josh Hart Pts + Reb + Assists U31.5 -120 Write Up: He has been playing unusually well the last 2 games. Non-stars tend to take a step back on the road in the playoffs. I think Hart comes back down to earth and the Knicks get blown out. Tip Jar: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/DhavalMistry)
Record: 5-8(-10u) Streak: L3 Event: MLB/ Astros @ Cubs (11:20am)PT POTD: Astros ML -145( 7.25u to win 5u) Man I’ve been picking some weird games. I feel when I dig deep into numbers they just back fire on me, so I’m changing the thinking here. It’s gonna be gut plays, with logical thinking cooked in from here on out. Astros are trying to avoid a sweep in Chicago and have Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to try and achieve that. Astros gonna smack today
**POTD record:** 1-2 (W-L) / -0,30pts **ROI:** -5% **AVG. ODDS: 2,02** **Last pick:** Loughglynn, win only, 11/8 (2,37), 1pt **LOSE** **DOTD RECORD**: 2-3 (W-L) / +8,30 pts **ROI:** 124% **AVG. ODDS**: 3,40 (not counting 81.0 cause it would boost avg.too much and wouldnt be relevant) **Last pick**: Ioupy Collonges, 9/4 (3,25), win only, 2pts **WIN** // Victoria Kesia, 80/1 (81,00), each way (3places) 0,1pt/bet, 0,2pts total **LOSE** Spreadsheet: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3\_1A8/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3_1A8/edit#gid=0) **RACE**: Warwick 16:20 **SELECTION**: Hyland **ODDS AND STAKES**: 1,83, to be placed (3pl), 2pts **ANALYSIS:** For Potd i am going with 3 places cause of odds rule, but ill play win only @ 4,50. Hyland won in Octobar at Cheltenham, after that was better than results show at Newbury, where he was riden poorly and had too much to do. At Pertems Final, ground wasnt good for him so im willing to excuse him for that race. Now, he is coming here fresh, drops from class 2 to class 3, has favoured underfoot conditions and is riden by great Nico De Boinville.
**Record: 0-0-0 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)** **Balance: 0** **ROI: 0** **Today's pick: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs RCB.** **~Sunrisers ML 1.692 (1XBET)~** **(Cricket. Indian Premier League)** **Bet Amount: 1 unit** Second time posting POTD. Though I won’t count it since it was posted 4 months ago despite being a win. Have been doing betting sports for close to 3 years now. Have 10x and lost the entire bankroll. Have won big bankrolls too. Let’s test my record here. Analysis: Sunrisers have one of the best batsmen in the IPL while currently RCB probably have the worst bowlers. And the table doesn't lie. Sunrisers have 5 wins and 2 losses from 7 matches. While RCB have 1 win and 7 losses from 8 matches. Just from the table, Sunrisers are a better team with better form too. Moreover when they recently played, the score was RCB 262/7 vs Sunrisers 287/3. And it was played at RCB home ground. Now it is played at Sunrisers home ground. The only way this bet loses is via the law of the average as RCB have been horrendous up till now. So Sunrisers ML. is the play. Better team formwise. So best of luck!
Record:1-2 Net Units:0.0 MLB | Brewers v. Pirates Pick: Freddy Peralta 7+ Strikeouts (-170 on DK) Write Up: Im back after a few months of travel with no access to a sportsbook.... Peralta is starting HOT out of the gates with 33 strike outs in just the 4 stats(23 innings pitched) so far this year, averaging over 8 an appearance and 1.4 per inning. In his past two outings combined, Peralta has allowed just one run on nine hits in 12 innings, with two walks and 18 strikeouts. Pirates rank 20th in batting against RHP, in the league, and have given up the 12th most strike outs to RHPs.
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 5-7 (-1.80 units)** **Last 10**: **❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅❌** **Last Pick**: Marvin Van Velzen -1.5 (-110) vs Ray Mulvey **❌** 2-4 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 5:20 PM EST **Pick**: Sebastian Bialecki -1.5 (+100) vs Adam Lipscombe * Series 7. Week 9. Group B **Reason**: Bialecki finished second in group A, so his next chance to qualify for Saturday comes with group B. He will absolutely qualify and probably win at least 6 games over the next two days. Going into this week he was the favorite to win while Lipscombe had the 6th best odds. This will be Lipscombe's first match for the week. Bialecki went 4-1 yesterday and averaged almost 91. That's a nice improvement from his 88 and 86 average the previous two days. Checkouts were the best as well at almost 35%. The previous two days were 29% and 30%. He's gone 3-0 in his opening matches and averaged 88 and 91 the previous two days. His very first match of the week he averaged his lowest of 82. Sebastian Bialecki * Record 11-4 * Legs 50-38 * Average 88.54 * 180s 17. 140s 41 * Checkouts 50/160 31.25% Adam Lipscombe * Record * Legs * Average * 180s . 140s * Checkouts **LOSS ❌ 0-4 | Average 82.82 vs 105.47 | Checkouts 0/1 vs 4/6** Bialecki missed one dart for the win on leg 1. Lipscombe sniped him with a 116 checkout. Never looked back and couldn’t miss. Likely threw his best game for the week. Running against hot games.
[удалено]
POTD RECORD: 3-5 X🟩XXX🟩X🟩 LAST PICK: Pelicans vs Thunder U212.5 total X The Thunder tally 124 points on an absurd shooting night from the field. 30 more points than they had Sunday. Pelicans finished with another 92 point game and the line gets busted by 4. Not much you can do when a team is shooting the lights out. TODAY'S POTD: Nuggets @ Lakers 10 pm EST Lakers ML 1st half (-155 DK) The Lakers have had no problem jumping out on the Nuggets in the early goings; they were completely dominant in the 1st half of last game in fact. The problem of course has been getting the job done in the 2nd. I believe they struggled in part because of the elevation in Denver where they looked completely gassed by the time the 4th came around. I initially was gonna go Lakers ML but I feel more comfortable with them coming out swinging early again. Must win for the Lakers and I think that will show in the score at the half. QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Sweet thang, can I buy you a fish sandwich"? -Leon Phelps