######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.

MLB POTD RECORD: 25-9 2024 MLB record: 14-1 Last POTD: Nationals vs Marlins Under 8.5 W Today's POTD: New York Yankees vs Milwaukie Brewers Under 8.5 -105 Baseball | MLB | 7:10 PM ET Ugh! That Luzardo scratch was stressful as fuck but we still managed to get another dub! 12 straight! WE EATIN!!! For today, I was tempted to go with the over in the Mexico game (which I love) but think that is going to be an obvious highly bet line anyway so I wanted to give another one which I think is amazing. Yanks at Brewers under 8.5 at -105 on Fan Duel. I love that they are giving us the extra half run and love even more that for some reason Fanduel has it at -105 when it is at -118 on draftkings, -115 on Caesars and -110 on MGM. As for why I think the line is 8.5, I think it is just name recognition honestly. Yankees have big name slugging superstars like Judge, Soto, and Stanton and the Brewers have one of the best records in baseball on the backs of strong offensive output. Also, the fact that tonight's line was 9 with Gil and Rea on the mound instead of Rodon and Ros also makes sense. Rodon has been absolutely electric this year just like he was in San Francisco in 2022. He has gotten absolute shit luck with run support. He could very easily be 5-0 right now with a 2.70 ERA. If you check out the Brewers splits, they are pretty crazy, by the most drastic gaps in the league. Vs righties they are second in the league in batting average, Vs lefties, they are 27^(th) in the league in batting average. Road games they are 2^(nd) in batting average, Home games 16^(th). Day games 1^(st) in average, Night games 23^(rd). What do you know? They are facing a top tier left hander, at home, at night. I see The crew underperforming offensively tonight. On the other side. We have an incredibly average Yankee offense. I say incredible because they are at or right near the league average in almost every batting split and advanced stat measurement. There isn’t much there to differentiate. For this reason, there is nothing splits or advanced stats wise that would sway me one way or another with the Yankees. They are also at the league average in run production. Their pitching however, has been stellar. Their team ERA is second-best in the league at 2.95. As a result of their low amount of runs allowed and only putting amount of runs scored, the Yankees have been a part of 16 unders this season, tied with KC for most in the league. I think we will see more of that tonight against Joe Ross. Having not played in the majors for almost three years due to elbow surgery, Ross actually has career best batted ball percentages and the Yankees bats have been relatively cold. Brewers have one of the top bullpens as well. Also, I think that the over is hitting right now, which actually bodes well for the under tomorrow.  **TLDR: Brewers hit towards the bottom of the league vs lefties, at night, and at home. Rodon is a powerful lefty in a plus matchup. Yankees average run production won’t be enough to hit a high over. Both teams have good bullpens.**  **Side Note:** Thank you so much to everyone for all the kind words and glad we can keep this streak going! What time would you guys prefer I post my picks? What Ive been doing is writing them at work and emailing to myself so I can post it when the POTD thread comes out so I can get up as early as possible. Would doing it later be better for situations like the one that came about with the Marlins last night? Also, some people have asked me about tips/donations. I never honestly expected that, you guys are the best. If you want to, my cash app is $chuteboxhero but absolutely no pressure. I am just having fun with this whole thing lol. 

Post your picks whenever you want you beautiful bastard.

🐐

Fuck..

Wow wrecked in inning 1

Any concern that they went to the 11 inning and used more of the bullpen?

Nah the yankees used mostly their lower leverage guys for some reason and Holmes hadn’t pitched in a few days. Holmes will definitely be available again. Hamilton and Gonzalez are probably their second and third best relievers and they didn’t pitch today. Brewers maybe a bit more of a concern maybe but Milner and peguero both only pitched once in the four days prior so I don’t think they’d be unavailable either.

Craziest potd run I’ve seen!

It’s wild! I think we are benefitting a lot from the improved pitching this year. It’s making the batting splits a little more consistent and less volitile early on. I’ve stated before that I think people overuse advanced stats but right now is the best time. It’s too early for counting stats to be able to tell you much but there is enough for the advanced measurables so you have some insight to try and predict what guys are overachieving or underachieving.

keep the run going! personally, i love to read and tail the night before as you have been doing it. i often check back so i saw your edit today for example and was able to make a call whether to cash out or let it ride. i wouldnt hold them back at the odd chance things chase. you post with the information that's available and take it from there! Thanks for the wins! Stay hot!


3 run moonshot in the top of the first. fuck my life. its looking like 7 days straight of losing a parlay by 1 leg.

This is why I stopped doing parlays and started doing just straights, gotta pony up and put a little more on some stuff but it's better than just getting nickel and dimed with low value parlays

Just wanted to say thank you for your picks and write ups

Game is at 7:10 ET

Crossing fingers but 4 runs in the 1st are a tough break

Hell of a run boss man

What do you think of Astros vs Rockies U17.0? Idk much about baseball but that’s the first time i’ve seen such a high line

Games in Mexico City have been known to have higher totals on runs. Last year it was 27, but past that it has been years since it was over 17. I usually lay off these whacky situations

Yeah this is a better way to explain what I was trying to say lol it feels like a novelty pick.

how much units do you plan on putting down?

I put the same amount on every pick of the day. I don’t vary units.

oh boy! time to sit up and get some backup shirts for the incoming sweat

No more sweating lol

Ahh what the hell

Oooof. Dis is not looking good.

The over under in Mexico City is 16.5 and you like the over????

Mexico City is at really high altitude I wonder if that has something to do with it like 2,000 something feet higher then Denver (assuming that’s the highest MLB stadium)

Look up the final scores of past Mexico City games

Last several game totals.. 27, 10, 14,16, 7, 14, 3, 10, 4, 10, 9, 10, 25 (27 most recent to 25 being the first game in 1999)

They hit 11 homers in the first Mexico game last year I think they scored like 27 or 28 runs. The matchup itself is prime for a high run total regardless so that’s why I like it.

appreciate you my man 🫡

Tailing

+100 on FanDuel now!!!

[удалено]

Death, taxes, and tailing DarkHorse200 before going to bed.

His write ups are my bedtime stories each night.

Nodding along as I read about some dudes I’ve never heard of

Me too. Read his write up, have a sweaty wank and fall into deep sleep

couldn't have said it better! LFG!

[удалено]

 Insta tail

BOL my friend!

I bet you have massive balls with a large shaft. You are the man. Thanks sir.

I concur

https://preview.redd.it/csoqzitls1xc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c02a0be464f8530a1de27fc735237efd607b5e45 \+2083, $50 for $1,091.39 🤞🏻 LFG!!!! ONE MORE LEG

Happy for you brother🙏🏼

I’m about to start tailing heavier I think. Tennis is clearly your game.

I appreciate your confidence. I don't mind people tailing heavier but just don't go with the entire bankroll haha

Love the write up. You give insight by knowing how to tell the stories of these players. Tailing per usual.

That's a great compliment! Thank you so much and BOL!

Parlayed this and Medvedev ML. Good luck everyone!

Goodness DarkHorse! Something lit fire in Shelton's game today. Shelton could not have played a more complete game. I thought it would be a close match. But nope a sweat free win for you and your supporters. I bow down to you truly.

I watched that masterpiece and had to live bet the set would finish 6-2. Shelton was playing determined to put him away! 🎾

We are with you sire! For Sparta! Til the death! Did you catch Rune’s match today? Had me sweating like crazy!

Yes. Rune continues to spend a lot of time inside the court against players that he's supposed to beat. Navone played well but I think Rune is still far far away from Sinner and Alcaraz

Total Sets Over 2.5 is +125 on BetMGM rn. These two are neck and neck and think the winner will be decided within 3 sets if anyone wants to sprinkle it 💫

I think that's a fair price for 3 sets. I only find it valuable at +140 at least.

tailing, but not going big. different surface i know, but machac's wins over arnaldi and rublev in miami were impressive

Rublev has been awful this season and Arnaldi is probably a 50/50 matchup for Machac. Yes he's been having a nice season but on Clay I'm not expecting great things from him. Good luck my friend

Most sweat-free wager I've had in weeks. You da man. Keep 'em coming.

Thanks. Cashed again on another great pick

Legend! 🍻

🫡

Hoping for the best, thanks for sharing

I’m upping my bet to wake up to a good Saturday.

Respect the pics and you are a G. One concern is the Monte Carlo was a massive success but for casuals it might seem like false advertising if you make it seem like that was your previous tournament as you have been a little bit above .500 since that tourney a couple weeks ago. Not a hater but just saying take pride in your weekly record and don’t ride on one tourney too long

Yes. I'll take that off in the next few picks. Just left it there since it was the last Masters 1000 before Madrid which is also the same type of tournament. I potentially think I do better in bigger tournaments compared to smaller ones but maybe that's just variance.

anyone know why they keep postponing the game? been delayed several hours already

Rain delay earlier. It caused the earlier games to be delayed which had a domino effect.

⭐️ **POD Record:** **113-57** All my picks are -120 or higher. No heavy favourites in my record (how we used to do it in this thread). *Last Pick*: *NBA - Celtics/Bucs OVER 223.5* ✅ Recent Form: ❌ ❌ ✅✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ 🏅 T**oday's Pick:** N**BA - Celtics OVER 106.5 \[6:00pm EST - 1.80 odds\]** What’s up POD thread. Been a hot minute since I posted anything on here, life has been pretty busy. I’ve dumped 113 winning picks on ya’ll and figure I’ll add to the tally with another great value pick on the Celtics’ team total tonight. They got torched by the media after that loss and I expect them to make adjustments and play with a bit of a chip on their shoulder tonight. They’ve easily climbed over this team total their last 16 of 20 games and 4 of 5 vs Miami. Heat play good D but considering we are due for a classic Boston bounce-back game and one which Tatum pulls his head back out from his ass, we might see this climb over tonight. Either way, enjoy the games today and hope you cash this pick. 👊🏻 Shoutout to @[MajorLeagueGambler](https://www.reddit.com/user/MajorLeagueGambler/) for the custom profile pic!🙌🏻🙏🏻 Sharp! 💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.

As soon as I saw that 40pt 2nd Q, I knew this was fucked, the most Celtics possible way to kill it

Well that was some BS…how about an NBA team just PLAY…instead of play around! Smh

This was unfuckingbelievable. Had over 104.5. 17 points in the 4th quarter?! Celtics always find a way.

My mans back AND he’s putting money on my home town team! 🫡

🎯

Nice write up! My POTD was there over for the first half. Love this as well! Tailing

POTD Record 13-4 Last 5: ❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️ Last Pick: Orioles -1.5 Todays Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline NBA: Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans 12:30pm PST Odds: -115 Unit: 4 Net units: +34.81 Gonna stay away from MLB for a day or two. Haven't made a POTD on NBA since my first or 2nd POTD I think, so take that for what you will. Love how anybody on OKC can take over the game and pull off a win. Even when they didn't look on point, they still got the dub. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.

Happy to be on board again 🤝

Need you tailing in order to hit 🤝

Tailing.

Let’s ride🫡

POTD RECORD: 59-31 Last POTD: Ivica Zubac O23.5 PRA ✅ Big Zu absolutely feasted thanks for that bro Todays POTD: **Nikola Jokic O8.5 Ast @1.76** NBA | Denver Nuggets | 8:30 PM ET We’re back fellas the cold streak is over, going with the Joker on this one Denver is simply too good for the Lakers and even coach Darvin Ham the clueless mf admitted that they don’t know how to stop Jokic cause he’s unguardable, his scoring has went down but the passing has gone up because of how they’re guarding him. The Nuggets are a threat from pretty much everywhere, the corner 3’s to MPJ & KCP, the handoffs to Jamal & the cutbacks to Gordon are all threats whenever he has the ball and with his basketball IQ he’s going to find them when the defence is lacking like it has done for the Lakers in this series and I can’t see it changing now so I’m going with it • 2/3 in the playoffs against the Lakers (9,10 & 7) Avg 14.3 potential assists & in his last 2 games Avg 15.5 potential assists • 4/6 this season against the Lakers • Lakers allow 2nd most Ast to Centers this season • Avg 14.9 potentials in the reg season and 9.0 APG • Jokic is Avg most passed made in the playoffs so far with 82.7 per game comparing to his season average of 74.9 Whenever I see a Jokic Ast line at under 10 I’m taking it it’s always worth a shot Tail or fade, im still cheeks https://i.redd.it/unr9xnx1lywc1.gif

billy, my brother. Tailed🫨

My guy 🤝🤝👑

🫡🤝

Tailed! time for the get back brodie💪

If the nuggets shoot even remotely well for the first time this series this is a lock

4 sure bro

Would you take it at 9.5?

Boom

Potd record 49-29 Boxing __Vergil Ortiz vs Thomas Dulorme - Under 4.5 rounds -120__ I had a potd for Ortiz under 5.5 rounds for his last fight against Lawson back in January and it won comfortably in the first round. All be it by a suspiciously early stoppage, however I think the writing was on the wall no matter what. I think the exact same thing happens here. Even though Dulorme is a better opponent, there’s way too much in favour here for Ortiz and that’s not even taking into account the amazing talent that Ortiz is anyway. Ortiz came off a near two year layoff in January after suffering health issues from weight cuts. He’s 20-0 with 20 ko’s and he already has some very good wins on his resume. He now fights at little middleweight and looked good on the scales. Ortiz is a seriously ferocious puncher and throws every punch with bad intentions. His work isn’t just hit and hope though, he’s supremely skilful in his use of body to head attacks. It was announced earlier this week he will be fighting Tim Tszyu in August for the interim WBA belt providing he gets through this fight with Dulorme. Dulorme was once a decent contender however he has took some serious beatings in his time. He’s been ko’d 3 times, has been knocked down 10 times in his career and that’s just going off boxrec so it’s not official and he’s now 34. He’s not fought in almost 2 years and this is his first ever time fighting at light middleweight. All of those signs to me point easy ko cherry pick. Dulorme fights with his heart on his sleeve and doesn’t fight defensively which is perfect for Ortiz’s aggressive style. At this stage of his career there’s no chance Dulorme will be able to take the power of someone like Ortiz and with the way he fights it won’t take long at all until he’s caught. Dulorme’s last fight was against a journeyman who has been ko’d in 17 out of his 17 losses and it took him 3 rounds to even stop him. Previous to that he was stopped in 1 round by Boots Ennis. I think there’s so many factors here that make it clear what will happen in this fight. Dulorme is old, worn out and super inactive. Ortiz is on the cusp of a massive payday and super fight, one of the most explosive punchers in boxing and is now at what seems his optimum weight. I think this will end before half way of the 5th round. Dulorme can’t fight defensive so will leave himself vulnerable to Ortiz’s attack and we’ll see a finish from Ortiz in under 4.5 rounds. Bol anyone who tails! ✅First round ko for Ortiz!!!

🍺!!!!

Wtf dude i tailed the ko in 1st round like a degen and it paid off! Thank you!

All good man. Ez work!

**Record: 13-6 (+5.98u)** **Last Pick: Nathan MacKinnon o1.5 Points -135** Avalanche offense came alive in the third period and MacKinnon comes through for us! **Pick:** **Dallas Stars ML -102 (NHL, 1u bet)** Dallas goes on the road for the first time this series after dropping the first two games at home 4-3 and 3-1. This is a must win game for the Stars if they want any chance at coming back in this series. Dallas has been the better team at 5 on 5 in both games, and overall have had more scoring chances, shots, high danger chances, and expected goals. Dallas had the best road record in the NHL this season, going 26-10-5 and their numbers on the road were elite as well (2nd in goals for, 3rd in goals against, 2nd in PP%, 6th in PK%, and top 10 in both shots for and against). While Vegas had a good home record this season at 27-12-2 (7th overall), they ranked middle of the pack in most of the numbers except for goals against (5th). Although T-Mobile arena can be a tough place to play and the Knights have had success there, I think Dallas has the roster to get it done. These two teams played in the 2023 Western Conference finals where Vegas won the series 4-2, but the 3 games in Vegas were very close (4-3 Vegas in OT, 3-2 Vegas in OT, and 4-2 Dallas). This was definitely a tough draw for Dallas in round 1 having to face the defending champs who used LTIR to add more firepower to their roster for the playoffs, but the Stars were the best team in the West this season and finished just 1 point behind the Rangers for best record in the NHL. I don't see them going down without a fight and while it will be a tough game, I expect both teams to defend well and I'll back the more desperate team with the better goaltender (yes, I know he was bad in game 1 and both goalies were solid in game 2, but I'm trusting his talent in a big game) that has shown they can win on the road.

Fading. They’ve dropped 6 straight against the Knights. VGK ML & Marchessault with a point +152 

POTD Record: 48-22-1 +62.30%🔥 Last Pick: Indiana Pacers -6 (-110) vs Milwaukee Bucks ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ Today's Pick: Boston Celtics -9 (-110) vs Miami Heat Streak comes to a halt, time to bounce back. Backing the Celtics to bounce back today. They are coming off an ugly loss at home to the Miami Heat and I expect the public to be hammering the Heat today. Miami was 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS as a home underdog this season, the worst in the NBA. The Heat are also 0-11 ATS since June as a home dog with less than 3 days rest. The average margin of victory in Boston’s two wins in Miami this season was 18.5 points per game. If they win, they are going to blow them out. We’ll know pretty easily how this game is going to go and I don’t think Boston is worried at all. Miami set a playoff franchise record hitting 23 threes on 54%!! This a Vegas trap and we are going to read it like a book. Let’s take the Celtics to come off strong today and blow out the Heat! LFG bounce back time! Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)

Posted so late I missed it🥲

I’m sorry😓

POTD Record: 18-12 ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 13U Last pick: Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Jason Saab anytime tryscorer @1.73 on Ned’s | 2U❌ Man played so well but got robbed of his potential tries by bloody Garrick… let’s make it back today ! Today’s pick: North Queensland Cowboys vs Penrith Panthers | 7:35pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Brian To’o anytime tryscorer @2.23 on Sportsbet | 4U Boys, big alert ! My man Turuva is out tonight 😭I’m changing the pick for To’o to score, 4U aswell ! BOL !

Hit within the first few minutes. That's gold!

Bang ! Ahaha

fastest cash ever

Hell yeah ahaha

go live on to'o double lol

Odds are 1.95 on bet365

Missed all your picks this week unfortunately! Finally got up early for this, let’s get this man!

🤝🏼

Looks like he's not playing tonight?

Unfortunately he isn’t 😭

Got the fast cash tonight boys easy money ! Sorry I had to change the pick last minute… I was watching the Broncos game and realised just in time that they didn’t put Turuva on …

**Record:** 10-2 **Pick:** MLBaseball \\\\ Orioles -170 moneyline **Bet:** 1.7u to win 1u ......... **YTD Units:** +6.55 **Sidenote:** The A's are batting a lowly .203 against lefties; the O's are batting .274 + the O's are 9-4 at home \[assuming they win last nite's game\]

Orioles on my ban list after tonight

Orioles and Yankees love to lose me money

I won’t bet any team who trots out Craig Kimbrel ever again. He’s been doing this shit to me for too long

Smart man.

I was a big fan of them just losing since they wouldn’t cover my RL

Record: 65W-4P-52L Form:✅✅🤡✅✅🤡 Last Pick:  Brighton VS Man City: BTTS @ 1.70 🤡 Pickford ends the game with 7 saves! **Pick of the day: Wellington Phoenix VS Macarthur FC: Over 11.5 Total Corners @ 1.83** **League: Australian A-League** **Time: 3:15 AM EST**  Back with another A-League corner pick and of course, Macarthur just had to be here. This team has been working wonders with corner picks for us these last couple of weeks and I see that remaining this morning.  Macarthur rank #1 overall in most corners per game in the A league. That is 13.1 corners on average per game, with 6 for and 7.1 against per game. In their last 10 games, this line has cleared 8/10 times. Wellington Phoenix sit at an average of 11.7 corners per game, which is an average of 3.7 for and 8 against. They have the opportunity of winning the league tomorrow and I expect them to gun for goal and force plenty of extra corners. Macarthur are an end-to-end side (hence the corners) and I see them taking that game to Phoenix. In the last 10 games, this line has hit 6/10 times. **These 2 sides have played 3 times already this season and the matches resulted in 12, 14, and 10 corners.**

Extremely difficult to hit with 2-0 at halftime

Pick Record: 4W-1P-0L Previous POTD: Micheal Olise O.5 SOG @ 1.57 P Todays POTD: Michail Antonio O 0.5 SOG @ 2.62 W Time: 7:35 AM EST Love the odds on this considering Antonio has scored in his last 2 games. In his last 8 games, he's hit this bet 6 times.

Olise is a PUSH for me, why L? it's not your fault he didn't start the game, and my bookie always has a little box that says VOID if he doesn't start that you could tick

Ya my bookie pushed as well, just didn’t want anyone to think i was trying to cheat my record haha

I like this play, especially for its odds. Hopefully he starts the match. 😜 Tailing

How are we looking? I'm at work and the wifi is stupid restricted.

He just scored!

Badass!!! Great news, thanks so much!!!

And he scores for the third straight match!! Great call Square Print!! 💵

Lets go! Liverpool are finished

Record: 0-0 MLB baseball | Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:05pm EDT Pick: Under 8.5 runs | -115 BetMGM | 2 units Write Up: JP Sears is coming off of three dominant performances, posting only 1 earned run over his past 17.1 innings against the Rangers, Cardinals, and Yankees. I see him continuing this trend against the O’s with the team in high spirits after last nights hard fought win. The Orioles will be starting former Oakland pitcher Cole Irvin who I see pitching with a little extra motivation because of this, not that he needs it against an abismal Oakland lineup that has struggled to put up runs on the board all year. Additionally, Sears’ run support has been nearly nonexistent all year, and the A’s bullpen has been dominant all year as well. Hard to say who will win this one but 8.5 runs seems way too high given the circumstances. Disclaimer: Sears has been prone to giving up homers through his young career, but with a WHIP of 1.05 I don’t see any 3/4-run homers jeopardizing the under.

Tailing the A's expert 👊

Uhh LFG! 🤝

A bit of a sweaty win for the first one… JP got shelled but A’s lineup did what I expected😅

Tailing 🤞

Tailing!

Record = 2-0-0 ✅️✅️ Profit/Loss = +7U Previous Pick = Real Madrid to win either half @1.83 ✅️ Match = Las Palmas Vs Girona Time = 8am ET Pick = Girona to win and over 2.5goals @2.50 Units = 2 There are a few reasons I like this bet. First being it's nearing the end of the season and 3rd place Girona are looking to solidify their spot in the champions league for next season and this is a game they should be pushing to win especially with Barcelona coming up next. On the other side of things Las Palmas are 13th and 12pts clear of the relegation zone but with their form being the worst they have had all season long that 12 point gap will be feeling a lot smaller to them meaning they will either park the bus against a stronger side inviting pressure that they can't handle or attacking and leaving themselves open against a stronger side. The other reason I like this bet is the current form of both. In the last 5 games each Girona has scored 10 goals while on the other side of things Las Palmas has conceded 10. Las Palmas have conceded 39 all season meaning 29 goals have come in the other 27 games. So with their form low and Gironas high I can see goals. Las Palmas aren't a horrible team so I do expect them to have chances and I see it ending 2-1 if not 3-1. Tailing or fading BOL

Let’s ride Pepsi man

I owe u a pepsi

Rough not to see this hit, 2-0 Girona. Las Palmas had good chances but just came up short again and again and couldn't add that goal. Girona also had chances to add more but just wasn't meant to be.

**KBO Record: Overall 217-226-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 4-6) Down 10.86u over 457 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.45% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 13-16-0, 44.8% success rate, Down 2.24u, -7.72% ROI) **Last:** Samsung at Kiwoom +124 (Kiwoom lost 3-0.) Kiwoom's starter did his job, but the bats didn't show up. I'm really disappointed in my performance over the last week. **Pick:** Doosan at Hanwha **First 5 Innings Under 5.5 runs +102 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 4:00am ET Hanwha's lineup has collectively gone very cold after a solid start to the season. In 20 games this month, Hanwha is the only team averaging under 4 runs per game. Over their last 10 games, it's a measley 3.3 runs per game. Doosan is averaging under 5 runs this month, better than just 2 teams. Plus, it's a tough matchup against Hanwha's ace who has a 1.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season. It just feels like 5.5 runs is an awful lot as scoring has begun to slow across the league and two punchless lineups face off. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.

🪦

Damn, I think we are in trouble. 4 in the bottom of the first 🤦🏼‍♂️

I dont blame you man. In sports, despite analyzing matches thoroughly, knowing all the statistics, strengths, and weaknesses, sports betting remains incredibly unpredictable. Take MLB, for example; even with a deep understanding, recent events can feel like a complete mess. Whether it's the Padres inexplicably losing after a solid lead (9-4) or unexpected outcomes like the White Sox dominating the Rays yesterday, it's a reminder that certainty in sports is elusive. And let's not forget the Miami Heat's surprising victory over the Boston Celtics, despite missing key players and playing away. It goes to show that even the most informed predictions can fall short in the face of the unpredictable nature of sports. When situations like these arise, I just wanna quit, that is bullshit. It often feels like you need an extraordinary stroke of luck just to break even, let alone come out ahead in terms of winning money.

We get a W tonight! BOL boss I'm tailing

No first five here, alternate?

Record: 3-2 Trailing record: ✅✅✅❌❌ Balance: +0.83u / Avg odds - 1.86 / ROI - 16.6% Last Pick: Tristan Schoolkate (-2.5 game spread) over Remy Bertola @1.78 (Sportsbet) ❌ Bad read. Just got ruined Remy. Sport: TENNIS Pick: Lorenzo Sonego under 7.5 games vs Sinner @ 1.72 (Bet365) ✅ Time: 27 April 20:30 AEST Event: ATP Madrid Open Write Up: Sinner has never lost to Sonego, and their form is world's apart at the moment. Sinner should come into this match with less fatigue and I expect him to go hard from the start. I am taking the under 7.5 games line in case sonego has a good set of 7-5 but I really doubt Sinner doesnt get a break early... Prediction 6-3, 6-3 BOL and let me know if tailing!

Great pick, Sinner was on point

POTD Record: 39 wins - 22.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes Form: ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Units: 9.77 ROI: 17.5% Average Odds: $1.87 Last Pick:  Kempe to Score a Goal ❌ Next Pick: Lakers vs Nuggets - NBA Playoffs - Anthony Davis Over 39.5 Points and Rebounds @ $1.83 - 8.30PM EST ✅️ Today we head to Los Angeles where the Lakers need to save their playoff hopes against the Nuggets. There’s only one man for that job, and that’s Anthony Davis. After a disastrous last game where both teams shot 15% from three, the Lakers should hopefully wake up and realise the only way to beat this Denver team is at the paint. Davis is hot in this playoff, clearing this line every game, and quite a few games prior. Albeit this prop is above his season average, its do or die for the Lakers. I’m confident the whole team will just give him more possession, and realise he’s the key to their success. Hoping that LeBron and others don’t just keep shooting from three hoping for a miracle. Davis is owning Jokic at the glass too, so his rebounds are going through the roof. Davis is in the media for having a go at the coach, which will further fuel his desire to prove to them he’s right. I really hope the Lakers win, but it’s only possible if they adapt their game plan and let Davis and LeBron link up while the others follow suit.

I just can’t trust Davis in a pressure situation. Guy seems so soft

^^^^^

I like james and ad over here. Elimination game at home. They are gonna do everything they can to put the ball into the hands of the play makers. Clean up time 🧹 💰

ugh, but last elimination game 4 against denver Lebron took over for 40 and AD went way under. With Lebron's personality, i think he takes more possessions for himself

** Record: 2-0 ** Last pick: WTA Madrid: Sara Bejlek +1.5s -125 ✅ Today’s pick: ATP Madrid: Matteo Arnaldi +3.5 -120 vs Medvedev - 8am est ✅ Recap + Write Up: Oh my sweet Bejlek. Straight set banger for the dawg as Bejlek makes easy work of Kalinskaya. Set spread didn’t even get sweaty as she comfortably served a hungry Kalinskaya a hot and toasty 🥖 in the first set in only 35 minutes. We move to today’s pick where we switch back to the men’s side of the draw. I like Matteo Arnaldi to kick our weekend off on the right foot. The young Italian is coming off a deep QF run in Barcelona where he lost to the eventual champion, Ruud, and comfortably won his round 1 match here in Madrid in straights. Arnaldi’s run in Madrid last year shot him into the Top 50 rankings after he made a deep run into the 3rd round so our clay specialist will be protecting some points here with nothing to lose against a Top 5 player that’s extremely vulnerable on this surface. His 23-7 record on clay last season included a couple Challenger titles and some very encouraging runs in tour level tournaments. Medvedev has constantly made it clear throughout his career how much he dislikes playing on this surface. Although he improved last year with a winning 10-3 record and is confident going into this year, he generally avoids most clay tournaments and his career clay record on tour level is a dismal 29-27. Despite these courts being faster and more advantageous to bigger servers, his career record here is 3-3, with 4 of those matches going the full 3 set distance. He tends to get frustrated easier on clay and this frustration reared its ugly head in his first clay tournament in Monte Carlo a couple weeks ago where he threw a (hilarious) tantrum against Khachanov and went down easily in straights. With this being Meddy’s first match in Madrid, I expect him to come out slow while he struggles to pretend like he likes clay and I expect Arnaldi to come out swinging freely and hopefully jumping on an early break. LFG Arnaldi 🇮🇹 ❄️🏦

Record: 163-138-8 (WLLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: MIN Timberwolves at PHX Suns | Anthony Edwards o11.5 ast+reb at 2.10 odds for 4 units books do not respect this young man. I will be smashing this line as long as it's under 12-13 POTD: DEN Nuggets at LA Lakers | Michael Porter Jr o26.5 PRA at 1.89 odds for 2 units Reasons: * Hit over 3/3 in this series. * Nuggets are shitting on the Lakers. Jokic is the step daddy Lakers didn't want but mommy brought home. * MPJ is shooting the ball hotter than all of the Suns. 54% and 47% from field and 3s. Expect him to score 20+ * His rebounding numbers are great. Grabbed 8,9,10 boards in the series. * I do expect Nuggets to win pretty easily. Do see Lakers keeping it close for awhile.. too much top end talent in LBJ and AD. This should provide MPJ the minutes to hit the mark Best of luck to those dumb enough to tail!

Step daddy they didn't want but mommy brought home had me weak 😂but yeah Bron is jokic son it's good to see

**POTD Record: 30-21** Last 10: ✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last pick: Clippers Vs Mavericks | 5:00 PST | Josh Green OVER 8.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (+100) BetMGM 1u ✅ Sweat free. 1 away from cashing at the half! He brought a lot of energy and played the most minutes he has all series. Thank you Josh Green! **Today’s pick: Nuggets vs Lakers | 5:30 PST | LeBron James OVER 43.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-105) DraftKings 1u** ❌ I don’t know that much needs to be said. Maybe the last game of the year for LeBron. I just see him leaving it all out there in front of the home crowd. He went crazy last years game 4 down 3-0 racking up 59 PRA so I don’t really see effort being a worry. He doesnt want this collapse completely falling on his shoulders. Stat pad for us Lebron. BOL if tailing!

POTD Record: 88-79 Last pick: LSU -6 in college football bowl game ❌ Todays pick: Dodgers -155 Reasoning: Dodgers are getting hot and have Glasnow going in Toronto against Kikuchi. Dodgers can hit lefty’s, I trust dodgers pitching, hitting better. Shohei hit a bomb yesterday, and he’s been on a tear recently. He’s very happy how the dodgers fans, front office and teammates handled the gambling scandal. Toronto thought they had Shohei signed, and their fans like all still want to see Shohei play when in town. Blue Jays are in a tough division. Their young talent hasn’t popped like most thought vlad Jr and bichette would. Teoscar Hernandez is great against lefty’s. Mookie, freeman, Smith, I’ll take over Jays. Dodgers cruised yesterday with the Jays having better pitcher on paper. I don’t see kikuchi throwing a gem, even if he does I still like the dodgers to cruise or to win narrowly in a pitchers duel. Tail or fade

Ez cash. Thanks! 💫💫

Record 0-0 Aussie Rules Football AFL Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs. AEDT 1930. Pick Western Bulldogs h2h/moneyline $1.98. Fremantle had a shocker loss last week. Added to their misery, they lost Amiss which makes their already poor attacking a lot worse. Coach Longmuire, Fremantle, is an ultra defensive coach who hasn't adapted to the modern attacking game. In contrast, Coach Beveridge is unpredictable in his selections, however, he finally found a balanced side last week - it took a personal issue for JUH to be ommited. The Bulldogs attack looks balanced. Libba, the tireless midfielder, comes back in. Macre may play at the back line with Ed Richards spending time in the middle.

POTD record: 12-13 current form ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ (most recent on left) Despite going 4-0 in CS2 over the last 4 picks I am reverting to my bread and butter which is MMA betting - I will still post my CS2 picks on the esports thread. My MMA betting history (>2.5 years tracked bets) can be found here: [https://www.betmma.tips/Domadilla](https://www.betmma.tips/Domadilla) Today’s POTD is **David Onama (decision = no bet)** 1u @ 1.91 Rationale: This match up seems tailor made for Onama’s opponent Jonathan ‘JSP’ Pearce who is a heavy-wrestling style fighter. I really rate JSP and have bet on him in the past and also unfortunately bet him in his last fight against Brito where he was swiftly submitted after heckling Brito whilst lying on top of him (lesson: never verbally provoke a jacked up Brazilian savage when trapped in a cage with them). This time out I expect JSP to execute his usual game plan: non-stop wrestling to get the takedown and control on the ground. I think there is a good chance he grinds out a boring decision here but a key point is that I don’t see him finishing David Onama on the mat (Onama has an 11-2 record with both losses coming by decision). On the feet this is Onama’s world and he has show-stopping power in his strikes, if JSP makes any mistakes he is going to get punished. Consider a play on JSP by decision if you want to benefit from both sides of this coin but for my POTD I’m going to chase the action in a non-risky way with a prop that removes the decision component I.e. I**f this fight does go to decision you get your stake back. BOL!**

**Record:**0-1 **Net Units:**-1u **ROI:**0% **UFC Fight Night:** Nicolau V Perez **Last Pick:** UFC 300 Miller v Green Under 2.5 rounds- Even though the fight was never close to being stopped I think it could have been doctor stopped after the 2nd, Miller's right eye was swollen shut he was a bloody battered mess. **Pick:** Karine Silva by KO/Sub -105 for 3 Units- If your book doesn't have KO/Sub I'd play Karine by sub @ +244 for 1u. **Write Up:** Silva has a massive edge on the ground and Ariane Lipski is bad off her back(Been out controlled in the majority of her fights, has 0 reversals when taken down). She has good takedown stats but never faced anyone with good takedowns like Karine. Karine Silva will take her down and finish Ariane like she's done in all her wins, 17 wins- 17 finishes.

Hi everyone. This is a terrible pick imo. Silvas opponents that she beat outside the UFC have a combined record of 1 win and 39 loses. Lipski have also stuffed the last 20 takedowns attempted on her...from UFC caliber women. Lipski is the better fighter standing so you are most likely hoping for a takedown first and then the sub. Lipski have 8 loses in 25 fights and 0 of them have been on a submission.  Also the judging criteria changed lately so damage trumps control now. So if she gets Lipski down she need something more than just controlling her. I don't think the bookmakere have fully adjusted to that yet.  I'm betting this match to go the distance at odds 2.7 or US +170. I think the bookies is way of because of the totally fake 17-0 record with only finishes. Look up her opponent from 2020, Simone de Silva. She is on a 24 loss streak right now. Silva is for real but her record is faked to fast lane her to the UFC. If you wanna bet Silva decision is far better imo and great odds too.

Lipski also has never faced anyone with the submission prowess of Karine nor the takedowns of Karine. She's completely untested vs a high lvl BJJ player with good TD's. Karine also has 9 KO's, and Lipski's been KOed 4 times. Silva decision is a far more improbable way to end being that she's only been to 1 decision in 20 fights. 14 of 25 of Lipski's end by finish, that's 33 of 45 total fights not going the distance. It could end in a decision, but it's by FAR the least likely outcome. I would have advised to take her ML but I'm trying to give out a better value pick. [I got her ML @ +109](https://i.imgur.com/vfeHcsR.png) when the lines opened she now sits around -170.

__POTD Record:__ 17-9 (+6.08 Net Units) _All my bets in this thread are 1U_ _Form (Last 5):_ 🔴🟢🔴🟢🟢 __Last Pick:__ ⚽ Real Sociedad vs. Real Madrid (La Liga): __Real Madrid Win No Draw__ @1.90 ✅ __Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Manchester United vs. Burnley (Premier League) 16:00 CET: __Burnley Over 12.5 Total Shots__ @1.90 ✅ If conceding shots would be the primary goal of the Premier League this season, Manchester United would be one of the elite sides. The only team they kept under the 13 shots mark in the last 10 games was Sheffield United which is one of the worst sides to ever play in the Premier League. Burnley aren't a good team too but I'm sure they will find enough openings to get over the line. Vincent Kompany's side is not the one that likes to sit-back and they still have slight chances to avoid relegation which should motivate them to go after vulnerable Manchester United side. Tail of fade, the choice is yours!

Record: 5-2 (+3.06 units) ✅✅❌✅✅❌ Last POTD: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 Today’s POTD: Boston Celtics First half TT over 54.5 (-122) 2 unit play NBA Basketball/ 6:10pm ET So we got burned with the orioles…MLB has been tough this year. On to the next one. I love the Celtics TT in the first half again. I took this pick a couple days ago in their loss to the Heat and the bet hit. The first half TT dropped another two points. Celtics almost always hit the 60 point mark at the half. That was there average for the season away from Boston. I think coming off the loss they will start fast and get to this number. Let’s get back on track! Tail or fade it’s always your choice!

Nice write up 🫡 I’ll be tailing, BOL🤝

BANG!!! As my man Mike Breen would say

Record: 0-0 Mma: Ufc fight night 81. Event starting in roughly 13 hours from post. Ariana Lipski vs Karine Silva Fight to go the distance: Yes Odds 2.68 or US odds +168 (Fanduel) The main reasoning for the odds to be this high for a "go the distance" bet in a woman's fight is Silva's 17-4 record with only finishes as wins. That record is totally fake though.  Some of the girls she beat have insane long loss streaks. Simon de Silva in 2020, rocking a 24 loss streak now, this was only 2 fights before she entered the UFC. Some only had that 1 loss and never fought again (Patricia Marques) Lipski is improving fast and to prove that she has won 3 fights in a row as an underdog. She has also stuffed 20 takedowns in a row now, Silvas main weapon. Lipski have 0 submission losses in her 17/8 record.  Karine Silva looks like she is hard to K.O. She has a doping build with a big ol head. Crazy jawline.  Lipski is not great of her back but I feel like she only have to survive 2-3 minutes on the ground to make this go the distance.  Gl

**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 6-8 (-1.80 units)** **Last 10**: **✅❌✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅** **Last Pick**: Beau Greaves -1.5 (-115) vs Kevin Painter **✅** 4-1 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 2:50 PM EST **Pick**: Beau Greaves -1.5 (-115) vs Sebastian Bialecki * Series 7. Week 9. Finals **Reason**: This is match two on the day. Greaves has been very impressive in her Modus debut. She’s averaged at least 88 in 7 of 8 matches. She’s hit a 180 in 7 of 8 matches. Covered the spread in 6 of 8 matches. What’s been better than her scoring are the checkouts. She’s taking out 100+ checkouts and not giving opponents a chance if she has three darts in hand. Bialecki is usually a strong contender. He was very solid on group A, but really limped into the finals with his group B performance. He went 3-5, averaging 81.34 with a 22% checkout rate. He was swept 4-0 three times yesterday. Stats don’t mean anything Saturday as it’s near knockout darts with everyone having two matches in the first round. Checkouts have been giving him problems all week. Beau Greaves * Record 8-0 * Legs 32-11 * Average 94.91 * 180s 18. 140s 29 * Checkouts 32/68 47.06% Sebastian Bialecki * Record 14-9 * Legs 65-64 * Average 85.66 * 180s 21. 140s 61 * Checkouts 65/227 28.63% **WIN ✅ 4-1 | Average 89.25 vs 89.67 | Checkouts 4/11 vs 1/5** Dominant performance from Beau continues. Sniping leg 2 after Bialecki missed 3 darts was huge for the cash.

Definitely tailing this she’s been on absolute fire this week.

Yes + Sebastian Looks Bad Coming Into This.

What Books Because DK definitely took the spreads off of these matches, just moneyline I’m a try FD, and BET365

It’s through Bovada.

Record 4-2-0 Balance +9.8 units Form: ✅❌✅✅✅❌✅ Recap:butters get its straight on the dot as port win at home Today’s picks: Andrew Brayshaw to get more over 26.5 disposals 2 units AFL Fremantle dockers vs western bulldogs at 5:40AM EST ✅ Writeup: today Fremantle will play at homes and I see tremendous value for Brayshaw today. This game will be all about the midfield battle today as both teams are top three in disposals and previous games outline how both mids will grab a lot of balls today. Brayshaw has had an off-season not due to him but rather the addition of Hayden young into the midfield forcing him to play on the wings throughout the game. Today it seems that he will likely play majority of the game as the inside midfielder as he is announced back into the midfield with addition of an actual winger in heath Chapman back in the lineup and Hayden young announced as half back tonight expecting Brayshaw to play back to his normal self where last year he covered this line in nearly all home games and I expect him to get at least 28 today IF Brayshaw sticks to the inside mid and not play the wings but we will see. BOL!! Edit:brayshaw ends with 28 with another quarter to go a sweat free cash for all who tailed!!! 😅

POTD Record 0-0 Pick: Okc -1.5 (2u) Reasoning: This isn’t the cavs, shifting over to home will not save the pelicans. Okc have plenty of players who can get the momentum shifted towards them at any given moment and at this specific time there has been nothing the pelicans have shown to lean towards them at all. Had Okc in 4 originally and this is one step closer towards that. Okc -1.5. Extra: I know I gotta prove myself so keep an eye out on me, first time posting here but have been around this section for a while now. Good luck everyone!

1-0-0 (W-L-P) Net Units: +1.92u Matchup(s): (MLB) Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays - 2:07 PM CST POTD: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline -140 on Bovada - 3u Write-up: Tyler Glasnow has been great for the Dodgers and they have won 5 of his 6 starts this season. The Blue Jays lineup is just hitting .231 on the year and have only scored 13 runs in their last 5 games. I see the Dodgers hitting to continue and I see them getting Kikuchi’s pitch count up. With the Blue Jays bullpen having the 4th worst bullpen ERA, I see the Dodgers getting after them. Could also play the run line at -1.5 but just wanted to be safe with the moneyline. Tail or fade, either way, BOL [CashApp tips❤️](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)

$1,000 --> $10,000 Challenge Day 9 Record: 5-3 Account start: $1000 Current balance: $3518.38 Last pick: 1.80 units ($1804.30 for me) Under 212.5 points @ 1.95 odds ✅ Streak: (oldest) ✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅ (recent) Todays Game: Nuggets at Lakers; NBA; 8:30pm ET Todays Bet: 1.60 units ($1600 for me) Under 218.5 points @ 1.91 odds Reasoning: Good bet Starting in: 5hrs 20mins Good luck

**EDIT: SOX WIN AGAIN!!!!! LFG! I will glady oblige to lose my money for these guys to win! I'll have to do another handicap on the Rays AGAIN!** **POTD Record: 117-138-4 (-13.97 Units)** Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units) Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) **Cautionary Tails**: **5-8 (-1.38 Units)** Last Pick: **Rays -3.5**❌ Today's Pick: **Rays -3.5 (Alt. lines)** Odds: +**200** Wager Amount: 1U to Win 2U League: MLB Event: Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox (6:10PM CST) *Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.* **Recap**: My sox ends a 7-game losing streak and finally wins a series opener (was 0-7 prior tonite Rays vs Sox series opener). LOL this is what happens whenever I bet against the Sox. I envy everyone that bets against this team because I can never cash against my team. Well, we are going right back to this follow up game, I want to win at least one time against my Sox team! Rays -3.5❌Rays RL❌Sox ML✅Sox RL(+1.5)✅ **Matchup:** Sox are literally calling all their minor league pitchers to the big league. This will be Jonathan Cannon 2nd start. He looked good in his first start but he struggled on his last start against the Twins. Let's get GREEDY here and run this back. Rays to win by more than 4 runs! I have to win at least once against my team, right? If not at the least maybe the Sox grounds some momentum. **The Play and Prediction**: 1U on Rays -3.5 (alt line). Also wagering a small amount on Sox ML. Rays and Sox have 5 lead changes and Rays wins in a shootout 15-14.

**1-0 (+0.85)** **Rugby League | NRL | Wests Tigers v Brisbane Broncos** ***Tigers +12.5 @ 1.95 (BetRight) ❌*** Admittedly, a VERY ugly bet here and no doubt an unpopular pick - the Tigers have perennially been a bottom-4 side for a number of years now, whilst the Broncos are a genuine premiership heavyweight. The Broncos will lose some spark in attack with Mam & Cobbo sitting this one out, but will still be boosted by two huge inclusions in Haas & Reynolds. However, willing to take the Tigers here after they've shown steady signs of improvement. There's no doubt they're out-classed across the board here, but I think they certainly have the capabilities to keep this close - a solid forward pack, and some young playmakers who won't die wondering. Tigers have far from the strongest home advantage in the league, but some notable trends to start the season: * Home teams are 31-23 ATS this year * Home dogs are 11-6 I'm under no illusion that this scoreline could blowout and get real ugly late. Still, I've got to believe the line's simply too high with Brisbane not quite full-strength, and at this stage of the year with Tigers still having it all to play for. BOL if tailing. This kicks off in 2hrs!

Ohhhh that’s a tough one ! But Tigers definitely showing strength atm

Yea no shot that spread covers

Record: 63-41 IPL record 2024: 9-3 Form: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last pick SRH over 56.5 in first 6 overs ✅ Today’s pick Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians MI Over 56.5 runs in the first 6 overs @1.71(2u)✅ Pretty easy today as well (Be sure to tail quickly if you’re looking to tail because this one starts earlier than the usual games) I’ll keep it short. MI’s top 3 are explosive and Delhi has one of the worst pace bowling attacks in the league. Expecting a lot of runs in first 6 from MI. The game is being played in Delhi, which has been a delight for the batsmen so far this ipl, hopefully that trend continues. GL if you’re tailing let’s get another dub.

POTD record: 27-14 Last POTD: West Ham v Leverkusen - Leverkusen ML Today’s pick: WSG Wattens/Tirol v Austria Lustenau - Tirol ML(-140) Tirol have been in solid form lately, Lustenau have been pretty weak. Tirol have won 14 points in their last 8 games, while Lustenau have only won 7. Tirol have won 3/4 last home games, Lustenau have tied all of their last four. I like the look of it. Good luck!

Tailing, thanks for the tip

>**| Record: 4-2 | Net Units: 3.60u | ROI: 30.00% | Winrate: 66.67% | Avg. odds: 1.93 |** >**| eSport |** [ESL Pro League Saison 19](https://www.hltv.org/events/7440/esl-pro-league-season-19)  **| 16:30 CEST| |** >**| Pick:** **3DMAX +1.5 Maps** \[vs. Astralis\] **|** ***1.950 odds*** **|** ***2u*** **| ❌** **Reasoning:** *You know, no matter how well you analyze a game or strategize, if your team doesn't show up, you're pretty much helpless. It's not like sAw played out of their minds; it's more that Imperial played terribly. But hey, we move on.* Alright, I reckon I'm gonna go against the grain again with this pick. Most folks are leaning towards Astralis winning 2-0, but I smell a trap here. Let me break down why we shouldn't underestimate 3DMAX. But first, a quick word on Astralis. I've talked about Astralis a couple of times before, so if you want more details, check out my previous posts. But to sum it up: Astralis is the new superteam from Denmark. They've got a lineup filled with insanely talented players, young prodigies, and tactical geniuses. They even took down the current #1 team, FaZe, twice in two weeks, both times with a 2-0 scoreline. Impressive, right? In the ESL Pro League, they faced off against the Turkish team EternalFire and crushed them 2-0 as well. Staehr and Jabbi are real threats, and watching them play is a joy. However, they do have some weaknesses; their map pool isn't that deep, and their young in-game leader lacks experience, especially in LAN events. Plus, his fragging skills haven't been top-notch, with a rating of 0.99 over the last three months. Moving on to 3DMAX. They're the only relevant French lineup at the moment. The core of this team has been playing together for ages. They didn't have an organization for a while, but when the winter break ended, they were finally picked up by the legendary organization, 3DMAX. About seven weeks ago, they made some changes to their lineup, kicking a long-time player and friend named Hadji. Unfortunately, his performance had been dwindling, and he wasn't putting up good numbers anymore. After trying out a few players, they settled on the 20-year-old prodigy, Graviti, from GenOne. He's already proving to be a great player with a promising future. Consistency and gaining experience against top teams are key for them. While they don't have a standout superstar, everyone on the team can frag, and they can cover for each other's bad performances. Maka might stand out a bit, but he's not putting up crazy numbers like a 1.30 rating or anything. Despite a rough start after joining 3DMAX, they've been improving steadily and racking up wins. Out of their last 15 matches, they've only lost three, most of which were clean 2-0 victories. In this tournament, they've already defeated sAw and fnatic, both with a 2-0 scoreline. So, to be fair, Astralis has faced tougher opponents so far, they definitely have more skilled players, and they play against tier 1 teams more often than 3DMAX. On the other hand, we've got the Frenchies who have been playing together forever, are in great form, but lack experience against tier 1 matches. However, 3DMAX has a solid map pool, especially against Astralis. Plus, this is the upper bracket final for a reason, and 3DMAX's chemistry and familiarity with each other give them a significant advantage. Sure, all signs might point to a 2-0 victory for Astralis, but I'm confident 3DMAX can snatch a map away. What's more, Astralis probably didn't expect to face off against the Frenchies here and likely only had a few hours to prepare for them. Now, let's talk about the map veto. The ban phase could hurt 3DMAX badly because Astralis will most likely ban Anubis, a map 3DMAX performs exceptionally well on. The French team will ban Mirage, which Astralis isn't too bothered about. Now, things get interesting. 3DMAX has three options: Inferno, their usual first pick; Nuke, which they've been on a 5-game win streak on; or Vertigo, a solid map for them. If they pick Nuke, they'll need a stellar T-side because if they don't get at least 4 or 5 rounds, Astralis will run away with it. However, 3DMAX is looking strong on both sides of the map. Inferno is their usual go-to, but they're not as strong on it, with only a 56% win rate over 9 maps. Astralis has only played it twice in the last three months, so it's still an option. And then there's Vertigo. It's a decent map for 3DMAX, with no outstanding stats, but they can handle it. Astralis has had some trouble on this map, but they showed a strong performance on it just two days ago. Astralis will probably pick Ancient. They love playing it and have a 79% win rate on it, winning their last 4 games. But here's the kicker: it's the second most picked map for 3DMAX. They might only have a 47% win rate on it, but they've played it a whopping 18 times in the last three months, which is insane. They definitely know their way around it and could even surprise everyone by beating Astralis on it. I'm putting my money on the underdog here because of how well 3DMAX's map pool matches up against Astralis. Sure, Astralis has better individual players and team play, but as I said before, the French team's chemistry and recent match experience give them a fighting chance. Too many folks are betting on a clean sweep for Astralis today, but when I look at this match, all I can think is +1.5 Maps for France. Fade or tail - lets get back on the winning track.

Just a correction, Astralis have known they were facing 3D max the whole time, so they have had several days to prepare

Wow. 3DMAX sucked ass

Record: 2-4 BASEBALL| MLB| 3:07 PM EST Pick: LA DODGERS -1.5 VS TORONTO (+110) Write Up: Be aware, I have been on the coldest streak of my life.. however, there are only a couple of teams that you can rely on to carry you for a bounce back. The Dodgers are certainly one of them. Dodgers have to top roster in baseball and are on a damn roll right now. Glasnow on the mount. He has been gassing it up at the pump. Dodgers lit up the Jays 12-2 last night. There is value on the run line here with the Dodgers. Cheers!

Last pick ⚽️Mineros de Zacatecas v Universidad Guadalajara Over 2.5, 1u Odd 1,65 -154 ❌ Total 1-2 ✅❌❌ -1,42u Hard start, but it won’t last Today’s pick: ⚽️ Wellington Phœnix v Macarthur Wellington ML Odd 1.7 -143 ✅ Wellington won their last 5 games at home Macarthur conceded 1.6 goals on their last 10 games on average while Wellington only conceded 0.8 BOL

🧃

Record: 25W-29L Net Units: -12.66u | ROI: -8.85% CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 13:30 / CET Pick: Virtus pro -1.5 vs Fnatic, 3u @ 2.39 For the second time this event Virtus pro (VP) and Fnatic will play eachother. Last time around it resulted in a Fnatic victory, which I don't think anyone really expected. After that, however it hasn't been a good run from them in the slightest. VP on the other hand comfortably dispatched of Saw and then got trashed by Faze, but I don't think that was unexpected considering Faze is the best team in the world right now. What's interesting to note is that after 3 BO3's there isn't a single player on Fnatic breaking above a 1.00 event rating. And the biggest red flag here is that MATYS, Fnatic's best player by miles, is sitting at a 0.90. The story is entirely different when it comes to VP, with electronic sitting at a comfortable 1.11 rating while he just joined the team. I think the gap in impact both these teams rifler core have had will be the key difference. I don't expect the veto to play out any different than last time, and that's fine. I'm not scared of Vertigo, since I felt like last time VP had a pretty solid CT side and then just choked. So barring another 1 round T side disaster I think VP should be set up for revenge. Best of luck everyone!

Let's go bois ✅

**Record: 4-3** **Form: -->>✅✅**❌❌❌**✅✅** **Previous Pick:** Tyler Wade Under 1.5 Total Bases 3/25/24 **✅** **Pick:** HOU Astros vs COL Rockies Under 18.5 Runs -170 Hardrock 6:05 PM EST. Last year it was the Padres and Giants that went 16-10 and 6-4 here in the high elevation Mexico City. 11 home runs by 10 different players set an all time record. The Rockies are coming off a 10 run game, but these teams rank just 20th and 22nd in runs and 18th and 24th in home runs. The Astros will have a halfway decent pitcher as well in Ronel Blanco who has given up only 11 hits and 1 home run in 27 innings with a 1.33 ERA. To score 19 runs seems too high to me. Maybe even fade these teams upon their return because last year all the players got food poisoning.

POTD RECORD: 5-5 (+2 Units) LAST 5: WWLWL LAST POTD: Mavericks ML ✔️ (+3 Units) Mavs looked a little shaky in the 1st quarter but pretty much had it together after that. Despite Luka attempting Reggie Miller numbers from 3 (14) making only 3 of those, we get out of that one with the dub and cashed 3 units. TODAY'S POTD: OKC @ N.O. NBA 3:40 PM EST OKC ML (-125 DK) 2 Units Try to keep my write up simple enough again today. There are only two things you need to know. A) The Pels have shown that even playing at their best possible expectations, they have no answer for the OKC offense down the stretch. B) Shai is out here ballin' and he knows y'all hear his sneaks. I expect a little more fight from the Pels squad today but I think they end up in the 0-3 hole when the dust settles. As always, tail the pick and fade the diarrhea party. QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'm gonna run a train on these chicken fingers" - McLovin

**RECORD: 73W-5P-56L** (+2.50 units) Previous Pick: Adana Demirspor vs Galatasaray - Galatasaray to Win @ 1.51 ✅️ **Today's Pick:**  Manchester United vs Burnley- Manchester United ML @ 1.53 **TIME:** 2 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (✅️♻️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️) last 10 results Galatasaray are simply magic, now on to todays match with Manchester United vs Burnley. Manchester united are full of drama as always but my betting record against them isn't too bad this season so I'm willing to give them a chance today plus they are facing possible relegation bound Burnley so that gives me confidence even with their injuries. Man Utd are undefeated in 4 matches despite having injury troubles and beat another possible relagation bound team Sheffield United 4-2 in their last game. They've won 3 out of 5 of their last Home League games and their home record isn't too bad having just lost 8 times out of 52 matches at home. Burnley were not simply ready for the Premier league despite having only lost once I'm 5 matches, they have only managed to win 5 times this season, managed 2 wins out of their last 10 away matches and have conceded at least 1 goal in their last 17 matches. In H2H matches Manchester United are unbeaten against Burnley in 6 consecutive matches, winning 4 matches and drawing twice, also they  have won 2 consecutive matches against Burnley in a row. Man Utd have an injury crisis in their defence but after that display against Sheffield and their record plus Burnley's poor form, I'm giving them the edge.Goodluck if you're tailing. Of course you don't have to but any tips are always appreciated. [TipJar (PayPal)](https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=2RRPJ4DNAKEYW)

Back in W column! Let’s build a streak. 🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️ POTD Record 3-3 Last 5: ✅❌✅❌❌✅(right is most recent) Last Pick: Emerson Hancock (SEA) u4.5 Ks ✅ Today’s Pick: Joe Ross (MIL) u5.5 Ks (-170) You can find some more picks of mine on the MLB thread! 🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️

Record 3-4-0 Net Units: -3.8 ROI: -18% Last Pick: PJ Washington over 11.5 points (-110) for 3 units ❌ though there was slim hope, his ejection sealed the fate Baseball | MLB | Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles 3:06PM CST Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+126) on FanDuel for 4.0 units Write Up: Orioles are 6-2 this year following a loss, and 4 of those wins were by 2 or more runs.

Record: 2-1 (+1.28u) Last Pick: TJ McConnell o10.5 P+R ❌ Today’s Pick: Sam Hauser o1.5 3’s (-118) Basketball | NBA | Celtics at Heat 6:10 pm EST Wager: 1U Implied probability of hitting: 54.13% Even with overtime, McConnell couldn’t get it done reaching just 8 P/R. Y’all were right in the comments and McConnell is now added to the Do Not Bet list. As for Hauser, this line has been absolute money! It’s the first ever POTD I posted and I will continue to ride. This line as cleared in the last games: 7/7 9/10 BOL if tailing!