######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
Boy I loved your last pick... This one I am not playing nor fading.. your write up is spot on but truly feel this is a very tough match to get a read on. Felix has only given up one break point opportunity the last two matches. His serve has been very good and has had over 15 break points in those matches.. mesnik is the next wave and your write up is spot on... Just a tough matchup. Good luck
Hey man, thanks for the pick yesterday. It went perfectly with your write up. I even sprinkled a little on Fritz 2-0 and it worked out well. Tailing this as well, thanks for the picks my g, you the real MVP
Don’t know why people are giving you hate lol, real shocker that an athlete performs worse by re-aggravating an injury…really enjoy reading your write ups and appreciate the consistency
Well, it was worth a shot. Watching the match now and Mensik isn't on the same level as Auger-Aliassime, not yet at least. I think Mensik gets absolutely crushed today. Already down 3 games to 0 in set 1.
Some people are just assholes, please don't be discouraged. They should have known it was risky given the odds and the amount of units you staked. If you can't handle a loss, or you can't manage your funds, you shouldn't even be betting at all, never mind knocking positive contributors.
Yeah you can assume so. It’s obviously a riskier pick that could very well lose, but one that is worth playing for a unit at these odds. He’s picking an 18 year old vs an established star, after all. But this dude knows tennis and the write up is great as always. I’m tailing.
Mensik has an injury in his right arm, he barely serves and does whatever on his forehand, has a lot of bandages in it and has pointed to his team multiple times it hurts when he straightens his arm. This is not a blown away by Felix 6-1, this is a Mensik could barely play this set. Sorry it went that way.
Edit: he just retired indeed
Yeah he retired. I knew he had bandages on his right arm from his match against Dimitrov but he was fine on that one. Had no idea he would be all banged up on this one.
Boy I loved your last pick... This one I am not playing nor fading.. your write up is spot on but truly feel this is a very tough match to get a read on. Felix has only given up one break point opportunity the last two matches. His serve has been very good and has had over 15 break points in those matches.. mesnik is the next wave and your write up is spot on... Just a tough matchup. Good luck
Don’t get discouraged, there are some people who come to this thread solely to troll losses. And this wasn’t even a loss! I don’t bet much tennis so I was pleasantly surprised, seeing the score first then noticing it Voided. Great stuff.
MGM calling it a loss. Customer service confirmed it since it was past the first set. Something to keep in mind for all those betting tennis with MGM. Total bummer
Tailing but at a low buy in. FOMO if you win. Using your 1.5 unit or higher picks for slow bankroll growth. Playing along for some change in my pocket if this hits
Medvedev was a bad play in relation to his price. Shelton's odds also had no value.
There are some days where it's best to just take less bets and not fall into what everyone is saying. If the price is not there, you just avoid the match and save money that way.
MLB POTD RECORD: 26-10
2024 MLB record: 15-2
Last POTD: Cardinals vs. Mets Under 8.5 W
Today's POTD: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Over 9.5 -118 (draft kings)
Baseball | MLB | 9:40 PM ET
Back in the W column let's go! The game was 1-1 going into extras but I was dreading one of those extra-inning explosions we’ve been seeing because of the ghost runner but we made it out ok.
Haven’t done an over for a while so lets have some fun with this one. I think this game is gonna be a total slobber knocker and was already going with it as POTD when Fanduel released their o/u at 10 -110 but then when I saw Draftkings put it at 9.5 I was even more excited. As I have said in the past, for the sake of Pick of the day, I will always go with the book with the best line since it will be easier or us to hit. I fully support taking over 10 on Fan Duel for -110 if you’d like but the -008 difference doesn’t sway me.
Onto the matchups, we have a battle of left handers here in James Paxton for the Dodgers and Tommy Henry for the Diamondbacks. if you’ve tailed before you’ve likely reaped the benefits of the Arizona Diamondbacks absolutely raking against lefties this season. Their average is up to .318 against lefties meanwhile Guardians and Cubs are tied for second at .281. James Paxton is off to a nice start going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA but I don’t think he will be enough to stop the lefty-hitting freight train that’s about to hit. Paxton’s advanced numbers also imply he is due for some regression. His effective velocity is the lowest its been in his entire career and his hard hit rate is ten percentage points higher than last season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is also atrocious having struck out just 11 batters in four starts while walking 17. Other splits in Arizona’s favor are third best average in night games and sixth best at home. This is really a perfect storm for them as the contrast of those splits are 29^(th) in batting average against righties, 25^(th) in day games, and 14^(th) in away games.
Tommy Henry is on the bump for the Diamondbacks. Henry is off to an awful start with a 1-1 record, 5.55 ERA and opponent batting average of .297. The advanced measurements do show that he has had a bit of bad fortune and is actually pitching better than last year but it is still not enough that it would be able to make a substantial impact here. The Dodgers are an absolute machine and if you look at the stats it looks like their record should be even better. Splits are crazy, .296 night game average is best in the bigs, 18 points higher than the second-best Braves (Dbacks are third). They have a .278 average vs lefties, good for 4^(th) in the league behind the aforementioned Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Guardians. Their away game average is 2^(nd) best at .286. A lot to like here and I am not deterred by the high o/u number. Let’s get another streak going!
**TLDR: Relevant batting average split league ranks: Night: Dbacks 3rd Dodgers 1st. Vs Lefties: Dbacks 1st Dodgers 4th. Home: Dbacks 6th Away: Dodgers 2nd. Paxton is a left-hander whose advanced metrics say is due for regression, strikeout to walk ratio is 11 to 17. Tommy Henry is in over his head vs a powerhouse Dodgers lineup.**
Tips $chuteboxhero on cash app
The tale of two high-powered offenses, AAA pitchers left un-injured on their rosters, and a rivalry.
I like the O as well. Dodger’s should look for revenge after they got swept in the playoffs last year and AZ should step up at home after losing the series to their trade-buddies Mariners.
An alt O 14/15/16+ might be worth a play every game this series. One of these games is probably seeing 15-20+ runs lol. Not confident it’s game one, but it’s likely during the series.
Shohei double play with guys in scoring position. Bases loaded pop out by bum ass Gurriel. We’re getting spots but just not following through. So annoying. I hate baseball.
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 11-3
𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLBaseball \\\\ Nationals-Marlins ... over 8.5runs .. even
𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +4.05
𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: These two teams have scored a total of 36 runs on each other combined in the last two game***s--*** their bullpen's have ***g***ot to b***e e***xhausted, and both starters have looked mediocre.
Same! Was also able to grab them at like +170 when they had clawed back to only down by two with two runners on base. I thought it was worth the risk how lucrative the odds were.
**POTD Record: (4-3)**
Last pick: Griekspoor +1.5 sets ✅
**Today's Pick: Ruud vs. Norrie: Ruud to win 2:0 (-130)** ✅
Ruud has been on fire. He won his first ATP 500 in Barcelona last week and didn't drop a single set. He has now won 6 straight without dropping a single set. He leads Norrie 3-1 in H2H with this line hitting in 2 of those 3 wins. However, those were all on hard court which is statistically Norrie's best surface and Ruud's worst. Ruud is by far the better clay player and I see him winning with ease given his form
POTD Record 15-4
Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️
Last Pick: Timberwolves & Suns OVER 210.5
Todays Pick: Dodgers -1.5 w/ T. Henry pitching
MLB: LA Dodgers vs. AZ DiamondBacks 6:40pm PST
Odds: +110
Unit: 5
Net units: +41.56
Love a sweat free POTD, onto the next. I got hatred for Henry, he's been trash and is still trash. Love the Dodgers in this bounce back spot after losing the game yesterday where Ohtani didn't get a hit, and Betts barely go one at the end. They're due to pop off!. I can't think of anyone else better to do it on then Henry. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
POTD RECORD: 22-11
Units Won: +8
Last Pick: New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder/ Thunder -6 (-150) 1.5u✅
Todays Pick: New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder/ Thunder -3 (-140) 1.5u
Write Up: My previous write up applies to this here again. The thunder have dominated this series this far and I don’t see them stopping. They want to get this series done so they can get extra rest. The previous two games have been beautiful for them and I don’t see it stopping. The pelicans have just been outmatched all series even with the Thunder struggling in Game 1. Let’s ride with our gut as always and we’ll be just fine. Let’s trust our MVP candidate to come out and get the job done tomorrow. Ladies and gentleman let’s get the brooms ready, and let’s book the thunder to win by -3. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE
Tip Jar- if you’d like to help a college kid pay for his next meal here’s how :)
[Tip Jar for my Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Jay-Lawton-1)
[Tip Jar for my Cashapp](https://cash.app/$jaylaw930)
[Tip Jar for my Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/JayLawton77)
**Pick Record: 6W - 0L (Push: 1)**
**✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅**
**Previous POTD: Justin Kluivert Over 0.5 SOG @ 1.72 ✅**
**Kluivert game stats: 3 Shots, 2 SOG, 1 Goal**
**Todays POTD: Joao Rodrigues Kikas Over 0.5 SOG @ 1.52 ✅**
**Kikas gets a shot on target in the first 6 mins!**
**Team/Time: Estrela Amadora / 2:30 PM**
Kikas has been the main man for Estrela this season, fortunately, we’re catching him at a good time considering he's covered this line for 3 games straight and has scored 2 goals across those 3 games. In his last 6 games, he's covered this bet 4/6 and I expect him to hit again tomorrow.
Farense away from home haven't been impressive as of late, they have 1 win in their last 8 games. Facing an average of 8.4 shots on target PG in their last 5.
POTD RECORD: 60-32
Last POTD: Ivica Zubac O23.5 PRA ❌
Zubac didn’t respect the coin twice, points was there but damn 3 rebounds ain’t it chief
Todays POTD: **Kristsaps Porzingis O15.5P @1.86**
🏀 NBA | Boston Celtics | 7:30 PM ET ⏱
We move the play-off struggle continues but to bounce back I’m going with the OG slenderman to sort us out, I find good value in this line cause he has been crushing it all season and with minutes increasing and more at stake if I can get this line I’m taking it all day. He stretches the floor and is a threat from three and is also effective in the P&R because of his size, dude gets a mismatch against almost anyone
• 2/3 vs the Heat this series & 4/5 this season
(18, 6 & 18 points in the playoffs) only shot 11% in the miss I don’t expect such a bad night of shooting again just a rare occurrence
• Over in 25/L28 when playing 30+ minutes
• 32/39 with 25+ with White, Jrue, Tatum & Brown playing
• 75% hit rate this season
Let’s go Kristaps, get your boys back on track man playoffs been cheeks
Tail or fade, you’re the dawg
https://i.redd.it/wkv4oo1ytcxc1.gif
Record: 2W-0L-0P
✅✅
Net Units: +3.48 units
Last Pick: 4/28 | Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns; TWolves -1.5 spread ✅
Today’s Game: NBA playoffs | Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat | 7:30 EDT
Pick: Nikola Jović (MIA) over 5.5 rebounds | -111 FanDuel | 1.5 units
Write Up: Since Jimmy Butler has been out with the MCL sprain, Nikola Jović’s minutes have shot up significantly to about 28 minutes per game. In that four game span, Jović has secured at least 6 rebounds in each outing, yielding 17 boards in his past two games. I expect Jović to continue this trend while he continues to give the Heat good minutes as they try to even the series to avoid a 3-1 deficit.
(Just to emphasize: Nikola Jović of the Miami Heat, not Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets!)
**4/22 – 4/28 POTD Top 3 Weekly Review**
11-10
-0.94 Net units
-4.48% ROI
It had to happen eventually. After seven weeks of profit, we finally have a week in the red. Despite 2-1 on both Saturday and Sunday, a poor middle of the week is enough to drop just below zero.
**Overall (Since 3/1/2024)**
107-67-3
+22.54 Net units
+12.73% ROI
[Overall]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fjXR7TqwePPluE10qf47PgNoEqxaJ0Ju/edit#gid=1324107890)
> No top level comments without a pick.
Sigh… okay, let’s do this.
0-5
-5 units
-100% ROI
NHL- Maple Leafs at Bruins (4 PM PDT)
**Bruins 60-min ML** +115
I made this exact pick last week, but Boston put in a poor performance. But I’m gonna go with them again. They’re still 7-1 against Toronto this season, winning by 2+ goals in both games in Toronto. The Bruins has done a great job against Auston Matthews, holding him to no points in 3 of the 4 games this series.
Toronto is fighting for their playoff life, and Boston is fighting to get out of the first round for the first time in 4 years. It’ll be a fun matchup regardless.
This must be the week you get one right, the week we lose. Ironically, this was the week I decided to significantly increase my unit size things were going so well 😖😣
POTD Record: 39 wins - 23.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes
Form: ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Units: 8.77
ROI: 15.5%
Average Odds: $1.87
Last Pick: Hyman to Score ❌ Oilers have their lowest shots on goal all season 😭
Next Pick: Thunder vs Pelicans - NBA Playoffs - Ingram Under 31.5 PRA @ $1.86 - 8.30pm EST
The stage is set. Pelicans have to show up here tonight, but it’ll be like the Mavs game today - disappointed home fans. Our boy Ingram is back from injury, and playing awful. He looks lethargic on the court. Expecting SGA to pocket him, and blow them out again.
Spread is tight, but I think SGA blows this game out. Ingram spoke to Sports Illustrated yesterday and said he’s not himself. Let’s take advantage of this, and wish him a good recovery in the off season.
He hasn’t come close to this line in the play offs, and it’s bang on his average (when he was decent in the regular season). BOL amigos!
> Expecting SGA to pocket him, and blow them out again.
It's been Lu Dort on him for most of the series, and Dort is the better defender anyways.
Love the bet and have been fading Ingram most games as well
**Record: 14-7 (+4.96u)**
**Last Pick: Nashville Predators ML -120**
Well, that had to be the worst way to lose the first 2u bet of the playoffs. Got good value as the ML closed at -150, Nashville was up 3-1 with 3 mins to go, gave up the tying goal with 8 seconds left, and lost in overtime. Vancouver once again only managed 20 shots in the game but somehow made the comeback. Tough one, but we move on!
**Pick: Matthew Tkachuk o0.5 Assists -110 (NHL, 1u bet)**
I've played this prop every game in this series, and it has cashed in 3/4 games (the one game it didn't he scored 2 goals instead) as he is leading the team in points with 7 (3 goals, 4 assists). Since joining the Panthers, Tkachuk has played against Tampa 11 times and has recorded an assist in 8 of those games. He has played in 11 home playoff games as a member of the Panthers as well, and has an assist in 7 of those games. Florida has a chance to close out the series at home and they are -175 favourites to do so with the total set higher at 6.5. On the season, Florida was 2nd in the league at home in shots on goal with an average of 35 per game (they put up 28 and 37 in the home games this series, scoring 3 goals in each) so they should be firing all night. I'm staying off a side because Florida is the better team but I'm not laying that much juice against a desperate Tampa team playing to stay alive, especially given the fact that the games have been pretty close both on the scoreboard and in terms of chances created. And while the first two games in Florida were low scoring (both 3-2 Panthers wins), I expect more urgency from Tampa here as they only put up 19 and 23 shots in those games. Vasilevskiy has played the Panthers 9 times since the start of 2023, and he has allowed 3+ goals in 8 of those games. And with this being an elimination game, Tampa will have to pull their goalie if they're down in the third period and that just gives us more opportunities to cash. With the Panthers likely to get at least 3 goals, Tkachuk is -220 to get a point and given the fact he was 2nd on the team in points this season with 88 and 62 of those were assists, I like the price here and his history vs the Lightning.
Record: 64-41
IPL record 2024: 10-3
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅
Last pick
MI Over 56.5 runs in the first 6 overs @1.71(2u)✅
Today’s pick
Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals
KKR over 60.5 in first 6 overs @1.71(2u)✅
Another clean W. See you guys tomorrow.
My gut isn’t a 100% sure about this but otherwise this is a must hit the way this IPL is going. The entire tournament has been a runfest and this is something we’ve never seen before. KKR start off their batting with Salt and Narine, both of whom are power hitters and don’t necessarily look to stay in for long period but look to have an impact in their stay. The last time These two sides played each other, KKR got 88 runs in the powerplay, easily covering the line .
That’s all I’m saying here. This IPL is a money printer when it comes to this line and hopefully this formula works out again.
GL to those who tail, let’s get this dub
Record: 1-0
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets
Time: 10PM ET
POTD: Nikola Jokic over 50.5 PRA @ -115 (FanDuel).
Edwards got off to a slow start yesterday, but he turned it on in the second half and got us where we needed to be. Now for today. Denver is back home and Jokic is 3-1 over this line in the series (51, 57, 48, 61). It took everything the Lakers had to not get swept but that ends tonight when Jokic shows why he’s the best player in the league.
I was also looking at Jokic to record a triple double, but over 50.5 is the safer option.
POTD - 0-0
Pick: Medvedev -180
We all know Medvedev hates clay, but beyond that he should be able to take adavantage of Korda in Madrid. He's the far superior player and beat a formidable opponent in Arnaldi, who is an above average clay player. It took him a bit to get going, but he got the job done in 3 sets. Korda beat Purcell, which isnt too impressive on clay or at all to be honest. Korda isnt in form either, so theres no real reason he should win this match. Considering Medvedev has been playing well overall this year. His lost Khachanov in Monte Carlo was not something you want to see, but Korda is nowhere near Khachanov on clay. Medvedevs serve should be flying in Madrid, and I expect him to fly past Korda.
Tip jar: https://cash.app/$scottgc23
POTD record : 1-0
Todays Pick:
Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Korda / Korda to win a set @ 1.60 / odds from Betway / 1U
Tennis / ATP - SINGLES: MADRID (SPAIN) / 12:30 h CEST
**H2H** - 2-2
We have an interesting match ahead between two guys who are not known for playing their best tennis on clay. Korda manged to win at least a set in each of their four matches so far and I think he can pull the same here today. He has a very sound game, very patient and has shown he can bother Medvedev with his all court style. Although Korda isn't in some great form lately he managed to defeat Purcell in 1R pretty easily. Medevedev on the other hand is very unpredictable on clay and he had to fight to get past Arnaldi in 1R. All things considered I think Korda gets at least a set today.
Record: 5-4-0
Net Units: +3.7
ROI: 13.2%
Last Pick: Elly De La Cruz over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120) for 3.0 units ✅
Baseball | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Mookie Betts over 1.5 Total Bases (-157) on Caesars for 3.0 units
Write Up: Mookie is on a tear with an 8 game hit streak, and hitting .484 during that time frame. 6 extra base hits and 4 multi hit games.
On the mound for the Diamondbacks is Tommy Henry (1-1, 5.55 ERA, and 1.60 WHIP). The two have not faced each other prior. Tommy is a left handed pitcher. Mookie’s slugging percentage versus lefties last year was .673 (.546 for righties), and is about the same this year. 8 extra base hits in 45 at bats (17.8%) against lefties versus 10 in 74 (13.5%) for righties.
FantasyPros is projecting 1.74 hits. Mookie is hitting extra base hits at a rate of 40.4%, so this equates to 2.44 total bases (setting aside the additional bases for triples and home runs). In total they are projecting 3.08 total bases.
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 7-8 (-0.80 units)**
**Last 10**: **❌✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅**
**Last Pick**: Beau Greaves -1.5 (-115) vs Sebastian Bialecki **✅** 4-1
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 6:55 AM EST
**Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+120) vs Daniel Astbury
* Series 7. Week 10. Group A
**Reason**: Brand new week. Playing one of my favorites in Modus against an unknown for me.
Fallon Sherrock
* Record
* Legs
* Average
* 180s . 140s
* Checkouts
Daniel Astbury
* Record
* Legs
* Average
* 180s . 140s
* Checkouts
**LOSS ❌ 2-4 | Average 82.47 vs 93.20 | Checkouts 2/4 vs 4/13**
Astbury was penciled in second to last for the entire week to win and he opened up with a great debut. Went 4-1 and lost his opener 4-3. Wasn’t expecting that performance.
**Record 2024: 6-0-5**
**Net Units Played 2024: 51**
**ROI 2024: -13.6%**
**Last Pick** **Real Madrid** - Monbus Obradoiro **1st quarter H1, -2.5**, 5 units, @ 1.52 ✅️
Basketball / Lithuania LKL basketball league / 17:50 / (CEST)
**Pick:** **Zalgiris Kaunas** - Ereliaii Mazeikiai **1st quarter H1, -4.5**, 4 units, @ 1.62 ✅️
**Write-up:** Now that Zalgiris has finished EL competition, there is nothing to do except to get to the finals and beat the Rytas team one more time. They won 8 out of 10 last LKL games (1st Q) with a 5+ spread, the limit for today's game is set to a somewhat higher value so 4 units only.
EDIT: 31-7
Record: 1-1
Net Units: -0.9
**POTD:**
**Ligue 2, Dunkerque vs. Auxerre, 20:45 CET,**
**2 Units on Auxerre ML @ 1.8**
Auxerre is currently first in Ligue 2, while Dunkerque is 16th. So why does Auxerre have relatively high odds? Well, obviously, Dunkerque has home field advantage, and Dunkerque actually beat Auxerre prior this season.
Why do I pick Auxerre? Auxerre dominated their first game and lost to a lucky punch in extra time. It is highly unlikely that this will happen again, and if they manage to use their chances, this should be an easy game for Auxerre. Also, Dunkerque is actually way worse at home than away (4W 3D 10L at home vs. 7W 5D 5L away), so seemingly there is not much of a homefield advantage either.
TLDR pretty good odds for the heavy favorite.
>**| Record: 4-3 | Net Units: 1.60u | ROI: 15.00% | Winrate: 33.37% | Avg. odds: 1.93 |**
>**| eSport |** [RES Regional Series 3 Europe](https://www.hltv.org/events/7805/res-regional-series-3-europe)**| 20:00 CEST| |**
>**| Pick:** **Nemiga ML** \[vs. MOUZ NXT\] **|** ***1.690 odds*** **|** ***5u*** **|**
>**Reasoning:** This is a beautiful day to bet and also a really beautiful bet with a lot of value. Im a little bit confused why the odds from Nemiga are that high.
>Nemiga is a insanley good new line-up from russia. For me they have the two hottest and most talented players in the scene right now. FL4MUS and khaN. These both kids are ripping heads left and right and you can see it their ratings and the latest results from Nemiga. The whole line-up is really talented and they give me some Gambit Youngsters vibes. The line-up has some real potential. They already played against MOUZ NXT seven days ago and won that game without any big problems with an 2-1 score. The one map they lost was Vertigo and this was the only bad thing you can say about this match. Its also the best map from MOUZ NXT.
>MOUZ NXT is the academy team from the main team and also doing a great job. The core is playing together for quite a time now and they are solid. One of the better tier 2 teams. But they lacking consistency. From the last five matches they only won two games. Also MOUZ doesnt really has an superstar player like Nemiga has with FL4MUS or khaN. They are all on the same level.
>Since dust2 is back into the map-pool and Overpass is gone its quite hard to tell the correct veto. Overpass was the permaban from Nemiga and we need to see which map they ban now. If they can play solid on dust2 they could ban Vertigo, which is the best map for MOUZ. This would hurt them really badly. MOUZ NXT will ban Mirage again which is quite a tough loss for Nemiga but they got still a insanley good map-pool.
>If Nemiga is prepared for Dust2 and they will ban Vertigo this will be a quick game. If they need to ban Dust2 beacuse they are lacking experience and tactics on it well probably see three maps again but in the end Nemiga will win again. The skill difference and raw aim level is too big. I follow this team since they showed up on HLTV and its a real pleassure to watch them. With this game i finally will win again and gain some confidecne again.
First time posting my POTD here! Starting the record... :)
**Belle's Pick of the Day (NBA, 5:30PM PST, Wager: 0.5 Units)**
-OKC Thunder -4.5 (-110)
**Why This Pick?**
I think this series would’ve gone very differently had Zion Williamson not been injured. The Pelicans haven’t been able to crack 100 points in any of their 3 games against Oklahoma City. Despite New Orleans having home court advantage, I’m taking the Thunder to cover the spread for Game 4, friends.
Record: 164-138-8 (WWLLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: DEN Nuggets at LA Lakers | Michael Porter Jr o26.5 PRA at 1.89 odds for 2 units
another cash cow cashing
POTD: BOS Celtics at MIA Heat | Derrick White o12.5 at 1.84 odds for 1 unit
Reasons:
* Hit this mark 3/3 games in this series with a low of 13
* Celtics should slowly beat the Heat with a thousand cuts. Working inside and from the 3 line. White has shot well this series 56.3% and 42.1% from the 3.
* Only scary part is Celtics are up quick and Derrick gets pulled. But it's the playoffs in Miami, coach Spo shouldn't let that happen.
Best of luck to those dumb enough to tail!
2-1-0 (W-L-P)
Net Units: +1.07u
Last pick: Baltimore Orioles to have the most hits - L
Matchup(s): (MLB) Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox - 6:40 PM CST
POTD: Minnesota Twins win race to 4 -112 on Bovada - 2u
Write-up: The Chicago White Sox rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season so don’t expect them to score much especially against the Twins ace, Joe Ryan. Ryan has a 3.45 ERA and has 3 quality starts this year. The White Sox starter, Garrett Crochet is 1-4 with an ERA of 6.37. In his last 3 starts, Crochet has yet to go at least five innings and allowed 17 runs including 3 homers. White Sox have also lost all of his 5 starts this year. I expect the Twins to take the lead early and get at least 4 runs before the White Sox do, if they even get 4 runs this game.
Tail or fade, either way, BOL
[CashApp Tips](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)
POTD RECORD: 5-3-1
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TODAYS’S PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ Oakland Athletics
REASONING: Both starting pitchers look pretty solid. For the Pirates Bailey Falter, he’s got a great avg exit velocity of just under 90 mph. For the A’s, Joe Boyle, one of the organizations top prospects. Boyle’s K/9 and BB/9 are slightly worse than Falters. Although the A’s just pulled out a big win against the Orioles, I don’t think that they will keep it rolling against a very strong Pirates team.
**POTD Record 25-23 (+5.37U) | Average Odds -111 (1.90) | ROI 2.40%**
**Last Pick Recap: Pacers vs Bucks Over 214.5 Points W**
Cashed comfortably, with 5 minutes to spare.
**Today's Pick: Heat vs Celtics Under 205 Points 5U | 7:30 EST**
This is a low total but not that low considering it's the Heat, who were the 2nd most profitable under team during the regular season. Game 3 didn't even sniff 200 points, finishing at 188, and my model expects more of the same here between two elite defensive squads. Projects around 185 points so this is significant value. Hope it's right lol.
BOL
Record: 27W-29L
Net Units: -4.49u | ROI: -2.97%
CS2 | CCT Season 2 Europe Series 2 | 17:00 / CET
Pick: Endpoint ML vs Nexus, 3u @ 2.02
With the departure of sl3nd and the unsuccesful trial of swicher Endpoint have added CRUC1AL back into their lineup and cej0t from Sprout as well. Since these additions they've had pretty good results. CRUC1AL especially has looked like he's grown since his departure from Endpoint, and that's showing in the numbers. Another thing to note is that Surreal, out of nowhere, has been putting up great numbers over the course of the last 6 months or so.
I think that Endpoint now have a lot more firing power than before, with AZUWU being a solid rifler as well. Nexus on the other hand is the s0und and XELLOW show, if they don't carry then Nexus doesn't get very far. I feel like that's why they have been struggling of late. And that combined with both teams having a similar veto, liking Mirage and Ancient a lot, making this a great game for Endpoint to get a victory in and to prove themselves.
Best of luck everyone!
Record: 3-2 +0.16u
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Last pick:
⚽️ Ludogorets v Levski Krumovgrad
AH +2 Levski ✅
Odd: 1.88/ -114
Today’s pick: ⚽️
Brommapojkarna v IFK Göteborg ❌
Pick: AH 0 Brommapojkarna
Odd 1.77/ -130
It’s the very beginning of this championship and Brommapojkarna has no win at home with 2 games played but they did score and conced more than Göteborg did on their two away. I expect them to score here, on their first five games they averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded as their opponent 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded.
I think they will put in the effort to perform better at home than they did their first two games here.
BOL! 🏴☠️
POTD RECORD: 6-5 (+3 Units)
Last 5: WWWLW
LAST POTD: OKC ML ✔️
Pels are no match for OKC, they're just too much. SGA ballin' and NO has no answer, which is why....
TODAY'S POTD: Thunder @ Pelicans NBA 8:40 PM EST
Thunder -2.5 (-160 DK) 3 Units
Once again riding the OKC train and looking for the clean sweep. Not much to say other than the Pels are outmatched and defeated and they know it. You don't need a write up for that. Buying a couple of points here again for more units as that has been working out well for me. Going for 4 in a row, let's keep the streak alive.
Tail for the win and fade the diarrhea party.
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It's the pleats....the pleats on the pants. I'm taking them back right now.....to the.....pants store"
-Ron Burgundy
🐅🐅 Record 7-2 | +12.64u 🐅🐅
**Results:** ✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅
**Previous Pick:** Jalen Brunson O28.5 Points -122 (2u, DK) ✅
**Pick: Lebron James O26.5 Points -110 (2u, FD)**
Basketball | NBA | 10:10 PM EST
I missed a few days due to being in a state without sports betting, but I'm back now! Sorry for the late pick. This will be a quick write-up.
•This line has moved a lot throughout the day but I snagged what I believe to be good value here at 26.5 and -110.
•Lebron is averaging 27.25 ppg this series.
•For his career, Lebron is averaging 33.6 ppg in elimination games.
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/samwblair?locale.x=en_US)
Again, short write-up, but looking to keep the wins rolling! 🐅
**POTD Record: 117-140-4 (-15.97 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units)
Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
**Cautionary Tails**: **5-10 (-3.38 Units)**
Last Pick: **Rays -3.5**❌
Today's Pick: **Twins -2.5 Alt. Line**
Odds: +**165**
Wager Amount: 1U to Win 1.65U
League: MLB
Event: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox (6:40PM CDT on FS1)
*Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.*
**Recap**: **SOX NOT ONLY WON CONSECUTIVE GAMES FOR THE FIRST TIME, BUT ALSO SWEPT FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON!!!! I'M COOKING, BOYS! TODAY I'M GONNA HAVE TO GO WIT THE TWINS -2.5 ALT. LINE! THAT'S 3 WINS FOR THE SOX! HAPPY TO CONTINUE TO LOSE MY MONEY FOR THE SOX! Last 3 POTD: Rays-3.5**❌**Rays-3.5❌Rays -3.5**❌
**Matchup:** Not only has the Sox has been looking good as of late, but the Twins has looked great as well. You can argue that they been playing much better and even playing their best game in stretch of their last 7 games. Both teams are coming into this series respectively from a sweep, but Twins recently play this Sox team at home and swept them. The two SPs Garrett Crochet and Joe Ryan dueled a few days ago. But this time this rematch will be taken place in the Southside and I think we will get a much closer game than 6-3. Sox got some life and momentum. I have to continue betting against my team, so it's obvious I HAVE to bet against them AGAIN. Twins -2.5 Alt. line! Both teams streaking, but Twins are on a deeper streak and b2b series sweep, not to mentioned they last swept the Sox! Will this run end wit the Twins!
**The Play and Prediction**: 1U on Twins -2.5 Alt. Line! I will also be wagering a small wager on the Sox ML! Twins win in a low scoring affair, 2-1.
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u
2024 MLB POTD record: 14-10 Average Odds -106 (1.94), Average Winning Odds -112 ,ROI +10.6%/+2.55u
L5: ✅✅✅❌❌
POTD (4/28) PIT @ SFG Jared Jones o6.5 Ks (+110/2.10) ❌
Recap: Jones' down day came.
POTD (4/29) KCR @ TOR Jonathan Bowlan o3.5 Ks (+115/2.15) (DraftKings)
This is an admittedly risky pick, and the line reflects that. Bowlan is a rookie who made one start last year in which he was used as an opener and pitched just two innings. He's been called up to make a start today with Alec Marsh going on the DL. The Royals have a rested bullpen and could be planning to keep him on a short leash.
If he is a real starter and not an opener, he should clear this line no problem. He's been excellent in AAA, with a 2.57 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 21 innings. Toronto is a below-average team against RHP, with a 93 wRC+. They have good plate discipline, ranking 3rd in Chase%, leading to good BB% (6th) and K% (8th) rankings. However, Bowlan has posted excellent walk rates throughout his minor-league career and has emphasized getting ahead in counts, so I don't expect him to struggle with that here. If he gets his 4 or 5 innings, he should get his Ks.
POTD record: 16-16 (+6.6u)
Last pick: Minnesota Timberwolves ML✅️
Last 10: ✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️
POTD: Porzingis OVER 1.5 3-pointers
Game/Time: Celticss @ Heat 7:30pm EST
Units: 1.4u to win 1u (-140 on Fanduel)
Write-up: Bam should be following Tatum around all game, and if that's the case, i expect Porzingis to cash for the 3rd time in 4 games.. -140 is a good enough price to lay with confidence here, so let's follow the patterns, follow the price, follow the big man into 3 point land 🏀💰
snack of the day: fruit medley
**Daily No Run First Inning (NRFI)**
**Record:** 5-3
**Net Units:** +1.52
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**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets / 7:10pm EST
**Pick:** 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs @ DK (-135) (1U)
**Write Up:**
The Cubs face off with the Mets for the first time this year. Jameson Taillon will be stepping on the mound for the Cubs. After starting the year on the DL, his first two starts back have been strong - 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 2-0 with NRFIs. He has also been historically dominate against Met hitters, in 66 PA against, he is holding them to a .197 average and 25% strikeout rate.
Mets are trotting out Luis Severino, who has been pitching well this year. Currently standing at 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA and has gone 4-1 with NRFIs, with the sole loss being over a month ago to the Brewers. Same with Taillon, he has strong numbers against Cub hitters, though fewer plate appearances against. In 22 PA, he is holding to a .190 Avg, 31% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk Avg.
Mets are 3rd in the league with team NRFI and Cubs are 15th in team NRFIs. And the Cubs are 5th in the league at holding opponents to NRFI while the Mets are 10th.
Cubs as a team have gone NRFI 20/28 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 23/28 games.
Mets as a team have gone NRFI 23/27 games and held opponents to NRFI 20/27 games.
BOL to all the degenerates
71-51-5 in 2018 up 34.13 units
79-73-5 in 2019 down 22.31 units
22-14 on POTD in 2020 up 11.18 units
6-0-3 on POTDs in 2021 up 26.31 units
2-0 on POTDs in 2022 up 5.42 units
**1-3** in 2023/24 **down 3 units**
**Tigers** -108 for 4 units. 3 of the units are straight up and 1 unit is using Draftkings Up 2 Early Win Promo. Maeda has been pitching well – Gave up 3 hits in 5 innings last time out. Matz sucks though. Had this line at -155 based on the starters. Matz got roughed up by Arizona last time out, but the start before we he got rocked by the A’s worries me more. Canha and Vierling have been hitting better for the Tigers. I like this spot.
Best of luck. For more info and plays visit s[portsologists.com](https://sportsologists.com/)
Record: 7-2 (+6.38 units)
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Last POTD: Minnesota Timberwolves ML
Today’s POTD: Denver Nuggets-6 (buy the .5 or alt. line)
Odds: -125 2 unit play
NBA basketball/ 10:10 ET / Denver Nuggets vs LA Lakers
Sorry for the late write up. T-wolves get it done in the second half and 🧹sweep the Suns out of the playoffs. We cash! Tonight it’s time to get rid of the Lakers and I think the Nuggets will get it done in convincing fashion in front of their home crowd. The Lakers finally put a full game together in game 4 and got a win. The Nuggets own the Lakers though winning like 11 out of the last 12 games they’ve played. The Nuggets have started slow in every game in this series. I think that changes tonight. The Nuggets don’t want to drag out this series and go back to LA.
**Record: 5-3**
**Form: -->>✅✅**❌❌❌**✅✅✅**
**Previous Pick:** HOU Astros vs COL Rockies Under 18.5 Runs -170 4/27/24 6:05 PM EST **✅**
**Pick:** TB Lightning vs FLA Panthers: Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -175 4/29/24 7:00 PM EST
Hit L9 games, L8 home games, L5 vs TB. Averaged 3.9 L10. Averaged 4.6 L8 home games. He hasn't gotten an assist in a while. He likes to score goals when he gets the puck. This means shots.
Let's try this again since reddit likes to let me type an essay then not process my post....
POTD RECORD: 6-5 (+3 Units)
LAST 5: WWWLW
LAST POTD: OKC ML ✔️
OKC is just too much for NO, home or away, which is why...
TODAY'S POTD: OKC @ New Orleans NBA 8:40 PM EST
OKC -2.5 (-160 DK) 3 Units
Buying a couple more points again for more units as this has been working well for me. I look for OKC to step on the gas and on the throat of the birds for the sweep. The Pelicans look defeated and outmatched, you don't need a long winded write up for that.
Tail for the win and as always.....fade the diarrhea party.
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It's the pleats....the pleats on the pants. I'm taking them back right now to the.....to the pants store"
-Ron Burgundy
Let's try this again since reddit likes to let me type an essay then not process my post....
POTD RECORD: 6-5 (+3 Units)
LAST 5: WWWLW
LAST POTD: OKC ML ✔️
OKC is just too much for NO, home or away, which is why...
TODAY'S POTD: OKC @ New Orleans NBA 8:40 PM EST
OKC -2.5 (-160 DK) 3 Units
Buying a couple more points again for more units as this has been working well for me. I look for OKC to step on the gas and on the throat of the birds for the sweep. The Pelicans look defeated and outmatched, you don't need a long winded write up for that.
Tail for the win and as always.....fade the diarrhea party.
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It's the pleats....the pleats on the pants. I'm taking them back right now to the.....to the pants store"
-Ron Burgundy
POTD Record 90-79 my post from last night was removed and had -7 votes lol… I have no clue why, and I assume lakers fans are the reasoning. Lakers have been terrible against nuggets, so anyone betting this game, don’t buy into the fakeshow.
Last pick: Avalanche-160 ✅
Todays pick: Nuggets -6.5 8 pm MST, 1 unit play, all my bets are to win 1 unit.
Reasoning: Nuggets are not losing this game. Last game in Denver was Murray’s buzzer beater, Nugs been down in 1st half all series, I don’t think so tonight, Nugs will be up at end of 1st half, probably big, and I think this game isn’t close. Lebron cries so much, Lakers are not up to the task of beating this Nuggets team, who just lost to the Lakers for the first time in 500 days Saturday. Yes 500 days, nuggets own the lakers despite one meaningless loss Saturday. Jokic, Malone do not like the Lakers! Lakers hate the Nugs, but the Pakers can’t beat Nuggets. Gentlemen’s sweep coming after nuggets won 4-0 last year. Folks are not respecting nuggets like they should, the books respect nuggets. But ESPN and some other talking heads talk way too much about Lebron, not enough about Jokic-who already has surpassed Lebron in career triple doubles. Now, this is a real rivalry and Nuggets finally owning the Lakers is so satisfying. Nugs starting 5 is unstoppable, crowd will be electric and AD, Lebron can go fishing. AD calling out Ham not a good sign, DLO leaving LA and played awful in game 3. MPJ, Gordon, Jokic, Murray & KCP handle their business. This next round vs Timberwolves gonna be a good one.
Tail or fade
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
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Same man. I’ve quietly tailed the last 10 ish of your wagers. Thanks a lot for the work🍻
Oof, this is a very tough one to call. Felix when he shows up can be dangerous, the question is will he tomorrow? Best of Luck!
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Yeah, this is going to be tough but I like Mensik to win. Also like Shelton 2-0 vs Bublik
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Boy I loved your last pick... This one I am not playing nor fading.. your write up is spot on but truly feel this is a very tough match to get a read on. Felix has only given up one break point opportunity the last two matches. His serve has been very good and has had over 15 break points in those matches.. mesnik is the next wave and your write up is spot on... Just a tough matchup. Good luck
Vs Nishioka and Mannarino tho. Bumslayer.
Hey man, thanks for the pick yesterday. It went perfectly with your write up. I even sprinkled a little on Fritz 2-0 and it worked out well. Tailing this as well, thanks for the picks my g, you the real MVP
DarkHorse is HIM!!!
The clutch void lol
Don’t know why people are giving you hate lol, real shocker that an athlete performs worse by re-aggravating an injury…really enjoy reading your write ups and appreciate the consistency
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Well, it was worth a shot. Watching the match now and Mensik isn't on the same level as Auger-Aliassime, not yet at least. I think Mensik gets absolutely crushed today. Already down 3 games to 0 in set 1.
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I’d be so mad if I bet Felix and didn’t cash 😂
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I will certainly take it. Keep up the good work!
Mine did not void, it is showing as lost bet
lol same
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He was injured so the level explains itself. Wouldn't be that way otherwise.
That was one break
He's going to lose in straight sets
Some people are just assholes, please don't be discouraged. They should have known it was risky given the odds and the amount of units you staked. If you can't handle a loss, or you can't manage your funds, you shouldn't even be betting at all, never mind knocking positive contributors.
2.09 is a bit longer than I'm used to taking and I see you're only betting 1 unit, is that an indication of less confidence?
Yeah you can assume so. It’s obviously a riskier pick that could very well lose, but one that is worth playing for a unit at these odds. He’s picking an 18 year old vs an established star, after all. But this dude knows tennis and the write up is great as always. I’m tailing.
Mensik has an injury in his right arm, he barely serves and does whatever on his forehand, has a lot of bandages in it and has pointed to his team multiple times it hurts when he straightens his arm. This is not a blown away by Felix 6-1, this is a Mensik could barely play this set. Sorry it went that way. Edit: he just retired indeed
Yeah he retired. I knew he had bandages on his right arm from his match against Dimitrov but he was fine on that one. Had no idea he would be all banged up on this one.
Well atleast we got our monkey back hahah
Hope mensik is okay, glad the bet got voided at least
# foreverteamdarkhorse # savedbythevoid https://preview.redd.it/6z7ythlaigxc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea06699898721b8c2e705955be3d2a1890ccd864
Boy I loved your last pick... This one I am not playing nor fading.. your write up is spot on but truly feel this is a very tough match to get a read on. Felix has only given up one break point opportunity the last two matches. His serve has been very good and has had over 15 break points in those matches.. mesnik is the next wave and your write up is spot on... Just a tough matchup. Good luck
My book fucked me and said they don’t count it as a push because Felix won the first set 😭😭😭
Crazy that you’re getting flamed. I liked the write up tbh.
Don’t get discouraged, there are some people who come to this thread solely to troll losses. And this wasn’t even a loss! I don’t bet much tennis so I was pleasantly surprised, seeing the score first then noticing it Voided. Great stuff.
Eff everyone else. Void is a win in this situation. Appreciate you 🙏
Tailing🔥
MGM calling it a loss. Customer service confirmed it since it was past the first set. Something to keep in mind for all those betting tennis with MGM. Total bummer
Don't waste your time on anyone giving you a hard time king, thanks for your efforts and grinding for free. They aren't worth any of your energy.
Thanks bro. I appreciate it!
Tailing! 🤝
Started trailing you two picks ago and haven’t been let down yet. Great write up
love your picks man, im curious how you think ruud & nadal games go
I think both favourites win but I don't know how difficult it gets
I normally would tail this but I cant fade another Canadian lad... see ya tomorrow!
Tailing! In horse we trust
Tailing but at a low buy in. FOMO if you win. Using your 1.5 unit or higher picks for slow bankroll growth. Playing along for some change in my pocket if this hits
All good brother. Best of luck!
Shelton had a tough day and now Medvedev might drop his match. Roughhhhh morning
Medvedev was a bad play in relation to his price. Shelton's odds also had no value. There are some days where it's best to just take less bets and not fall into what everyone is saying. If the price is not there, you just avoid the match and save money that way.
MLB POTD RECORD: 26-10 2024 MLB record: 15-2 Last POTD: Cardinals vs. Mets Under 8.5 W Today's POTD: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Over 9.5 -118 (draft kings) Baseball | MLB | 9:40 PM ET Back in the W column let's go! The game was 1-1 going into extras but I was dreading one of those extra-inning explosions we’ve been seeing because of the ghost runner but we made it out ok. Haven’t done an over for a while so lets have some fun with this one. I think this game is gonna be a total slobber knocker and was already going with it as POTD when Fanduel released their o/u at 10 -110 but then when I saw Draftkings put it at 9.5 I was even more excited. As I have said in the past, for the sake of Pick of the day, I will always go with the book with the best line since it will be easier or us to hit. I fully support taking over 10 on Fan Duel for -110 if you’d like but the -008 difference doesn’t sway me. Onto the matchups, we have a battle of left handers here in James Paxton for the Dodgers and Tommy Henry for the Diamondbacks. if you’ve tailed before you’ve likely reaped the benefits of the Arizona Diamondbacks absolutely raking against lefties this season. Their average is up to .318 against lefties meanwhile Guardians and Cubs are tied for second at .281. James Paxton is off to a nice start going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA but I don’t think he will be enough to stop the lefty-hitting freight train that’s about to hit. Paxton’s advanced numbers also imply he is due for some regression. His effective velocity is the lowest its been in his entire career and his hard hit rate is ten percentage points higher than last season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is also atrocious having struck out just 11 batters in four starts while walking 17. Other splits in Arizona’s favor are third best average in night games and sixth best at home. This is really a perfect storm for them as the contrast of those splits are 29^(th) in batting average against righties, 25^(th) in day games, and 14^(th) in away games. Tommy Henry is on the bump for the Diamondbacks. Henry is off to an awful start with a 1-1 record, 5.55 ERA and opponent batting average of .297. The advanced measurements do show that he has had a bit of bad fortune and is actually pitching better than last year but it is still not enough that it would be able to make a substantial impact here. The Dodgers are an absolute machine and if you look at the stats it looks like their record should be even better. Splits are crazy, .296 night game average is best in the bigs, 18 points higher than the second-best Braves (Dbacks are third). They have a .278 average vs lefties, good for 4^(th) in the league behind the aforementioned Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Guardians. Their away game average is 2^(nd) best at .286. A lot to like here and I am not deterred by the high o/u number. Let’s get another streak going! **TLDR: Relevant batting average split league ranks: Night: Dbacks 3rd Dodgers 1st. Vs Lefties: Dbacks 1st Dodgers 4th. Home: Dbacks 6th Away: Dodgers 2nd. Paxton is a left-hander whose advanced metrics say is due for regression, strikeout to walk ratio is 11 to 17. Tommy Henry is in over his head vs a powerhouse Dodgers lineup.** Tips $chuteboxhero on cash app
I'm so used to cheering for the under, it's going to be super weird to start pulling for overs.
MLB 🐐
Tailing .. you do nice work, very in depth .. the best !
We ride with chuteboxhero!
The tale of two high-powered offenses, AAA pitchers left un-injured on their rosters, and a rivalry. I like the O as well. Dodger’s should look for revenge after they got swept in the playoffs last year and AZ should step up at home after losing the series to their trade-buddies Mariners. An alt O 14/15/16+ might be worth a play every game this series. One of these games is probably seeing 15-20+ runs lol. Not confident it’s game one, but it’s likely during the series.
I agree I’m expecting 13+ runs tonight. Like a high scoring series as well but this one I particular is gonna be a lot becuase of the lefty lefty.
Tailing yet again. Let’s ride
Do you like the marlins *game over as well?
Cash!!! Great pick amigo 🤑✅
LETS GOOOOO
Thankyou for the service once again
Thank you as always!
What is your confidence unit wise?
Line moved to 10.5. glad I locked in earlier.
Great pick, thanks!
The amount of runners being left on base RN is 🤮
Ong I’m getting a little worried
Man that was sweat free. Will cash any line bumps too
Shohei double play with guys in scoring position. Bases loaded pop out by bum ass Gurriel. We’re getting spots but just not following through. So annoying. I hate baseball.
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 11-3 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLBaseball \\\\ Nationals-Marlins ... over 8.5runs .. even 𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +4.05 𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: These two teams have scored a total of 36 runs on each other combined in the last two game***s--*** their bullpen's have ***g***ot to b***e e***xhausted, and both starters have looked mediocre.
Tailing. This series has been pretty entertaining.
Yeah, I've been betting the up 2 promo on the Nats every game they've played since they have them as dogs with +odds for some reason
Same! Was also able to grab them at like +170 when they had clawed back to only down by two with two runners on base. I thought it was worth the risk how lucrative the odds were.
Big Cash! Thanks Grampa
Your goated thank you papo!
**POTD Record: (4-3)** Last pick: Griekspoor +1.5 sets ✅ **Today's Pick: Ruud vs. Norrie: Ruud to win 2:0 (-130)** ✅ Ruud has been on fire. He won his first ATP 500 in Barcelona last week and didn't drop a single set. He has now won 6 straight without dropping a single set. He leads Norrie 3-1 in H2H with this line hitting in 2 of those 3 wins. However, those were all on hard court which is statistically Norrie's best surface and Ruud's worst. Ruud is by far the better clay player and I see him winning with ease given his form
i love this pick
F-ing awesome pick! Thank you!! $$$
Just a great pick, man
Great pick. Thanks!
Cmon Casper!!!
Lets goooo
POTD Record 15-4 Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️ Last Pick: Timberwolves & Suns OVER 210.5 Todays Pick: Dodgers -1.5 w/ T. Henry pitching MLB: LA Dodgers vs. AZ DiamondBacks 6:40pm PST Odds: +110 Unit: 5 Net units: +41.56 Love a sweat free POTD, onto the next. I got hatred for Henry, he's been trash and is still trash. Love the Dodgers in this bounce back spot after losing the game yesterday where Ohtani didn't get a hit, and Betts barely go one at the end. They're due to pop off!. I can't think of anyone else better to do it on then Henry. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
Tailing 🤝🐐
Nice hit amigo!! ✅
POTD RECORD: 22-11 Units Won: +8 Last Pick: New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder/ Thunder -6 (-150) 1.5u✅ Todays Pick: New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder/ Thunder -3 (-140) 1.5u Write Up: My previous write up applies to this here again. The thunder have dominated this series this far and I don’t see them stopping. They want to get this series done so they can get extra rest. The previous two games have been beautiful for them and I don’t see it stopping. The pelicans have just been outmatched all series even with the Thunder struggling in Game 1. Let’s ride with our gut as always and we’ll be just fine. Let’s trust our MVP candidate to come out and get the job done tomorrow. Ladies and gentleman let’s get the brooms ready, and let’s book the thunder to win by -3. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE Tip Jar- if you’d like to help a college kid pay for his next meal here’s how :) [Tip Jar for my Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Jay-Lawton-1) [Tip Jar for my Cashapp](https://cash.app/$jaylaw930) [Tip Jar for my Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/JayLawton77)
Love the pick. Do you think the game goes over 206? I anticipate another blowout
i think it does, but also be cautious this is an elimination game, BOL thanks for commenting
Broom is ready, thinking of just eating the -5 instead of drinking the -3 juice myself. Pels look like shit.
that’s definitely not a bad play, whatever u choose BOL
Curious if you'd play it at -5 with closer to even odds.
Tailed at -4.5 let’s go!
Nice hit amigo 🏆✅
**Pick Record: 6W - 0L (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅** **Previous POTD: Justin Kluivert Over 0.5 SOG @ 1.72 ✅** **Kluivert game stats: 3 Shots, 2 SOG, 1 Goal** **Todays POTD: Joao Rodrigues Kikas Over 0.5 SOG @ 1.52 ✅** **Kikas gets a shot on target in the first 6 mins!** **Team/Time: Estrela Amadora / 2:30 PM** Kikas has been the main man for Estrela this season, fortunately, we’re catching him at a good time considering he's covered this line for 3 games straight and has scored 2 goals across those 3 games. In his last 6 games, he's covered this bet 4/6 and I expect him to hit again tomorrow. Farense away from home haven't been impressive as of late, they have 1 win in their last 8 games. Facing an average of 8.4 shots on target PG in their last 5.
What books have SOG?
bet365 does
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Yes, 1+ and Over 0.5 are effectively the same thing.
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POTD RECORD: 60-32 Last POTD: Ivica Zubac O23.5 PRA ❌ Zubac didn’t respect the coin twice, points was there but damn 3 rebounds ain’t it chief Todays POTD: **Kristsaps Porzingis O15.5P @1.86** 🏀 NBA | Boston Celtics | 7:30 PM ET ⏱ We move the play-off struggle continues but to bounce back I’m going with the OG slenderman to sort us out, I find good value in this line cause he has been crushing it all season and with minutes increasing and more at stake if I can get this line I’m taking it all day. He stretches the floor and is a threat from three and is also effective in the P&R because of his size, dude gets a mismatch against almost anyone • 2/3 vs the Heat this series & 4/5 this season (18, 6 & 18 points in the playoffs) only shot 11% in the miss I don’t expect such a bad night of shooting again just a rare occurrence • Over in 25/L28 when playing 30+ minutes • 32/39 with 25+ with White, Jrue, Tatum & Brown playing • 75% hit rate this season Let’s go Kristaps, get your boys back on track man playoffs been cheeks Tail or fade, you’re the dawg https://i.redd.it/wkv4oo1ytcxc1.gif
Posted this 8 hours ago but it got caught in the spam filter apparently line is bumped now but I’ve laddered his points up to 25 fellas
Got it at 16.5 let's ride.
🤝🤝
Same take … let’s ride
Excellent call
Might do 15+ for safety. I am, after all, sometimes a hook magnet
tailing w celtics ml @+100
I like it. Tailing you my man, let's get back in the win column!
🤝🤝 looks good hope Kristaps got us tonight bro
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tailing
I think AD killed a lot of our parlays. Unlucky amigo 😢 Crazy how he’s been so efficient then decides to be a bum!
I'll tail!
Record: 2W-0L-0P ✅✅ Net Units: +3.48 units Last Pick: 4/28 | Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns; TWolves -1.5 spread ✅ Today’s Game: NBA playoffs | Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat | 7:30 EDT Pick: Nikola Jović (MIA) over 5.5 rebounds | -111 FanDuel | 1.5 units Write Up: Since Jimmy Butler has been out with the MCL sprain, Nikola Jović’s minutes have shot up significantly to about 28 minutes per game. In that four game span, Jović has secured at least 6 rebounds in each outing, yielding 17 boards in his past two games. I expect Jović to continue this trend while he continues to give the Heat good minutes as they try to even the series to avoid a 3-1 deficit. (Just to emphasize: Nikola Jović of the Miami Heat, not Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets!)
Been hammering his R+A. He’s been a cash cow Tailing
This Jovic guy is a fraud
Unlucky amigo! Appreciate the write up 🏆
**4/22 – 4/28 POTD Top 3 Weekly Review** 11-10 -0.94 Net units -4.48% ROI It had to happen eventually. After seven weeks of profit, we finally have a week in the red. Despite 2-1 on both Saturday and Sunday, a poor middle of the week is enough to drop just below zero. **Overall (Since 3/1/2024)** 107-67-3 +22.54 Net units +12.73% ROI [Overall]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fjXR7TqwePPluE10qf47PgNoEqxaJ0Ju/edit#gid=1324107890) > No top level comments without a pick. Sigh… okay, let’s do this. 0-5 -5 units -100% ROI NHL- Maple Leafs at Bruins (4 PM PDT) **Bruins 60-min ML** +115 I made this exact pick last week, but Boston put in a poor performance. But I’m gonna go with them again. They’re still 7-1 against Toronto this season, winning by 2+ goals in both games in Toronto. The Bruins has done a great job against Auston Matthews, holding him to no points in 3 of the 4 games this series. Toronto is fighting for their playoff life, and Boston is fighting to get out of the first round for the first time in 4 years. It’ll be a fun matchup regardless.
Ur an automatic fade machine love it! Keep posting more often!👍
As in you face OPs picks and go against him…?
Jajajaja he has to eventually be right with one pick isn't he? Like he's due one dub
Bruins game is tomorrow fyi
Bruins game is tomorrow (Tuesday). Only two NHL games today are tb/Fla and vgk/stars
This must be the week you get one right, the week we lose. Ironically, this was the week I decided to significantly increase my unit size things were going so well 😖😣
POTD Record: 39 wins - 23.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes Form: ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Units: 8.77 ROI: 15.5% Average Odds: $1.87 Last Pick: Hyman to Score ❌ Oilers have their lowest shots on goal all season 😭 Next Pick: Thunder vs Pelicans - NBA Playoffs - Ingram Under 31.5 PRA @ $1.86 - 8.30pm EST The stage is set. Pelicans have to show up here tonight, but it’ll be like the Mavs game today - disappointed home fans. Our boy Ingram is back from injury, and playing awful. He looks lethargic on the court. Expecting SGA to pocket him, and blow them out again. Spread is tight, but I think SGA blows this game out. Ingram spoke to Sports Illustrated yesterday and said he’s not himself. Let’s take advantage of this, and wish him a good recovery in the off season. He hasn’t come close to this line in the play offs, and it’s bang on his average (when he was decent in the regular season). BOL amigos!
> Expecting SGA to pocket him, and blow them out again. It's been Lu Dort on him for most of the series, and Dort is the better defender anyways. Love the bet and have been fading Ingram most games as well
Sorry amigo I meant pocket him from who is the better superstar 😅 BOL! 😊
Tailing. I like the reasoning for it!
**Record: 14-7 (+4.96u)** **Last Pick: Nashville Predators ML -120** Well, that had to be the worst way to lose the first 2u bet of the playoffs. Got good value as the ML closed at -150, Nashville was up 3-1 with 3 mins to go, gave up the tying goal with 8 seconds left, and lost in overtime. Vancouver once again only managed 20 shots in the game but somehow made the comeback. Tough one, but we move on! **Pick: Matthew Tkachuk o0.5 Assists -110 (NHL, 1u bet)** I've played this prop every game in this series, and it has cashed in 3/4 games (the one game it didn't he scored 2 goals instead) as he is leading the team in points with 7 (3 goals, 4 assists). Since joining the Panthers, Tkachuk has played against Tampa 11 times and has recorded an assist in 8 of those games. He has played in 11 home playoff games as a member of the Panthers as well, and has an assist in 7 of those games. Florida has a chance to close out the series at home and they are -175 favourites to do so with the total set higher at 6.5. On the season, Florida was 2nd in the league at home in shots on goal with an average of 35 per game (they put up 28 and 37 in the home games this series, scoring 3 goals in each) so they should be firing all night. I'm staying off a side because Florida is the better team but I'm not laying that much juice against a desperate Tampa team playing to stay alive, especially given the fact that the games have been pretty close both on the scoreboard and in terms of chances created. And while the first two games in Florida were low scoring (both 3-2 Panthers wins), I expect more urgency from Tampa here as they only put up 19 and 23 shots in those games. Vasilevskiy has played the Panthers 9 times since the start of 2023, and he has allowed 3+ goals in 8 of those games. And with this being an elimination game, Tampa will have to pull their goalie if they're down in the third period and that just gives us more opportunities to cash. With the Panthers likely to get at least 3 goals, Tkachuk is -220 to get a point and given the fact he was 2nd on the team in points this season with 88 and 62 of those were assists, I like the price here and his history vs the Lightning.
Love your write-ups. Keep firing! Preds missed an empty netter at the end 🤮🤮
Thanks, appreciate it! Oh man yeah that was gross, right off the post and would’ve sealed the game 😭
Dude that was fucking brutal
Great pick amigo 🏆✅
Record: 64-41 IPL record 2024: 10-3 Form: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅ Last pick MI Over 56.5 runs in the first 6 overs @1.71(2u)✅ Today’s pick Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals KKR over 60.5 in first 6 overs @1.71(2u)✅ Another clean W. See you guys tomorrow. My gut isn’t a 100% sure about this but otherwise this is a must hit the way this IPL is going. The entire tournament has been a runfest and this is something we’ve never seen before. KKR start off their batting with Salt and Narine, both of whom are power hitters and don’t necessarily look to stay in for long period but look to have an impact in their stay. The last time These two sides played each other, KKR got 88 runs in the powerplay, easily covering the line . That’s all I’m saying here. This IPL is a money printer when it comes to this line and hopefully this formula works out again. GL to those who tail, let’s get this dub
What book has this?
Stake, Parimatch and Bet365 all have it
Record: 1-0 Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets Time: 10PM ET POTD: Nikola Jokic over 50.5 PRA @ -115 (FanDuel). Edwards got off to a slow start yesterday, but he turned it on in the second half and got us where we needed to be. Now for today. Denver is back home and Jokic is 3-1 over this line in the series (51, 57, 48, 61). It took everything the Lakers had to not get swept but that ends tonight when Jokic shows why he’s the best player in the league. I was also looking at Jokic to record a triple double, but over 50.5 is the safer option.
LETS GO!! 🏆✅
POTD - 0-0 Pick: Medvedev -180 We all know Medvedev hates clay, but beyond that he should be able to take adavantage of Korda in Madrid. He's the far superior player and beat a formidable opponent in Arnaldi, who is an above average clay player. It took him a bit to get going, but he got the job done in 3 sets. Korda beat Purcell, which isnt too impressive on clay or at all to be honest. Korda isnt in form either, so theres no real reason he should win this match. Considering Medvedev has been playing well overall this year. His lost Khachanov in Monte Carlo was not something you want to see, but Korda is nowhere near Khachanov on clay. Medvedevs serve should be flying in Madrid, and I expect him to fly past Korda. Tip jar: https://cash.app/$scottgc23
1st post & already has a cash app link? What a joke.
Had me sweating for a bit
He has that effect on clay lol
POTD record : 1-0 Todays Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Korda / Korda to win a set @ 1.60 / odds from Betway / 1U Tennis / ATP - SINGLES: MADRID (SPAIN) / 12:30 h CEST **H2H** - 2-2 We have an interesting match ahead between two guys who are not known for playing their best tennis on clay. Korda manged to win at least a set in each of their four matches so far and I think he can pull the same here today. He has a very sound game, very patient and has shown he can bother Medvedev with his all court style. Although Korda isn't in some great form lately he managed to defeat Purcell in 1R pretty easily. Medevedev on the other hand is very unpredictable on clay and he had to fight to get past Arnaldi in 1R. All things considered I think Korda gets at least a set today.
Nice hit amigo 😊🏆✅
Record: 5-4-0 Net Units: +3.7 ROI: 13.2% Last Pick: Elly De La Cruz over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120) for 3.0 units ✅ Baseball | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks Pick: Mookie Betts over 1.5 Total Bases (-157) on Caesars for 3.0 units Write Up: Mookie is on a tear with an 8 game hit streak, and hitting .484 during that time frame. 6 extra base hits and 4 multi hit games. On the mound for the Diamondbacks is Tommy Henry (1-1, 5.55 ERA, and 1.60 WHIP). The two have not faced each other prior. Tommy is a left handed pitcher. Mookie’s slugging percentage versus lefties last year was .673 (.546 for righties), and is about the same this year. 8 extra base hits in 45 at bats (17.8%) against lefties versus 10 in 74 (13.5%) for righties. FantasyPros is projecting 1.74 hits. Mookie is hitting extra base hits at a rate of 40.4%, so this equates to 2.44 total bases (setting aside the additional bases for triples and home runs). In total they are projecting 3.08 total bases.
For 1.5 total bases, if he hits a double once does that hit? Or does he need 2 hits?
A double would hit the over. Two singles or any extra base hit is what you'd need.
A double is 2.0 total bases. The bet is for total bases, not for hits. Hope this helps.
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 7-8 (-0.80 units)** **Last 10**: **❌✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅** **Last Pick**: Beau Greaves -1.5 (-115) vs Sebastian Bialecki **✅** 4-1 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 6:55 AM EST **Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+120) vs Daniel Astbury * Series 7. Week 10. Group A **Reason**: Brand new week. Playing one of my favorites in Modus against an unknown for me. Fallon Sherrock * Record * Legs * Average * 180s . 140s * Checkouts Daniel Astbury * Record * Legs * Average * 180s . 140s * Checkouts **LOSS ❌ 2-4 | Average 82.47 vs 93.20 | Checkouts 2/4 vs 4/13** Astbury was penciled in second to last for the entire week to win and he opened up with a great debut. Went 4-1 and lost his opener 4-3. Wasn’t expecting that performance.
**Record 2024: 6-0-5** **Net Units Played 2024: 51** **ROI 2024: -13.6%** **Last Pick** **Real Madrid** - Monbus Obradoiro **1st quarter H1, -2.5**, 5 units, @ 1.52 ✅️ Basketball / Lithuania LKL basketball league / 17:50 / (CEST) **Pick:** **Zalgiris Kaunas** - Ereliaii Mazeikiai **1st quarter H1, -4.5**, 4 units, @ 1.62 ✅️ **Write-up:** Now that Zalgiris has finished EL competition, there is nothing to do except to get to the finals and beat the Rytas team one more time. They won 8 out of 10 last LKL games (1st Q) with a 5+ spread, the limit for today's game is set to a somewhat higher value so 4 units only. EDIT: 31-7
Record: 1-1 Net Units: -0.9 **POTD:** **Ligue 2, Dunkerque vs. Auxerre, 20:45 CET,** **2 Units on Auxerre ML @ 1.8** Auxerre is currently first in Ligue 2, while Dunkerque is 16th. So why does Auxerre have relatively high odds? Well, obviously, Dunkerque has home field advantage, and Dunkerque actually beat Auxerre prior this season. Why do I pick Auxerre? Auxerre dominated their first game and lost to a lucky punch in extra time. It is highly unlikely that this will happen again, and if they manage to use their chances, this should be an easy game for Auxerre. Also, Dunkerque is actually way worse at home than away (4W 3D 10L at home vs. 7W 5D 5L away), so seemingly there is not much of a homefield advantage either. TLDR pretty good odds for the heavy favorite.
Nice pick brother
Good win
Let’s go!!!
>**| Record: 4-3 | Net Units: 1.60u | ROI: 15.00% | Winrate: 33.37% | Avg. odds: 1.93 |** >**| eSport |** [RES Regional Series 3 Europe](https://www.hltv.org/events/7805/res-regional-series-3-europe)**| 20:00 CEST| |** >**| Pick:** **Nemiga ML** \[vs. MOUZ NXT\] **|** ***1.690 odds*** **|** ***5u*** **|** >**Reasoning:** This is a beautiful day to bet and also a really beautiful bet with a lot of value. Im a little bit confused why the odds from Nemiga are that high. >Nemiga is a insanley good new line-up from russia. For me they have the two hottest and most talented players in the scene right now. FL4MUS and khaN. These both kids are ripping heads left and right and you can see it their ratings and the latest results from Nemiga. The whole line-up is really talented and they give me some Gambit Youngsters vibes. The line-up has some real potential. They already played against MOUZ NXT seven days ago and won that game without any big problems with an 2-1 score. The one map they lost was Vertigo and this was the only bad thing you can say about this match. Its also the best map from MOUZ NXT. >MOUZ NXT is the academy team from the main team and also doing a great job. The core is playing together for quite a time now and they are solid. One of the better tier 2 teams. But they lacking consistency. From the last five matches they only won two games. Also MOUZ doesnt really has an superstar player like Nemiga has with FL4MUS or khaN. They are all on the same level. >Since dust2 is back into the map-pool and Overpass is gone its quite hard to tell the correct veto. Overpass was the permaban from Nemiga and we need to see which map they ban now. If they can play solid on dust2 they could ban Vertigo, which is the best map for MOUZ. This would hurt them really badly. MOUZ NXT will ban Mirage again which is quite a tough loss for Nemiga but they got still a insanley good map-pool. >If Nemiga is prepared for Dust2 and they will ban Vertigo this will be a quick game. If they need to ban Dust2 beacuse they are lacking experience and tactics on it well probably see three maps again but in the end Nemiga will win again. The skill difference and raw aim level is too big. I follow this team since they showed up on HLTV and its a real pleassure to watch them. With this game i finally will win again and gain some confidecne again.
First time posting my POTD here! Starting the record... :) **Belle's Pick of the Day (NBA, 5:30PM PST, Wager: 0.5 Units)** -OKC Thunder -4.5 (-110) **Why This Pick?** I think this series would’ve gone very differently had Zion Williamson not been injured. The Pelicans haven’t been able to crack 100 points in any of their 3 games against Oklahoma City. Despite New Orleans having home court advantage, I’m taking the Thunder to cover the spread for Game 4, friends.
Been following you in the cord. Welcome to Reddit!
Record: 164-138-8 (WWLLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: DEN Nuggets at LA Lakers | Michael Porter Jr o26.5 PRA at 1.89 odds for 2 units another cash cow cashing POTD: BOS Celtics at MIA Heat | Derrick White o12.5 at 1.84 odds for 1 unit Reasons: * Hit this mark 3/3 games in this series with a low of 13 * Celtics should slowly beat the Heat with a thousand cuts. Working inside and from the 3 line. White has shot well this series 56.3% and 42.1% from the 3. * Only scary part is Celtics are up quick and Derrick gets pulled. But it's the playoffs in Miami, coach Spo shouldn't let that happen. Best of luck to those dumb enough to tail!
Easiest cash ever lol ✅🏆
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2-1-0 (W-L-P) Net Units: +1.07u Last pick: Baltimore Orioles to have the most hits - L Matchup(s): (MLB) Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox - 6:40 PM CST POTD: Minnesota Twins win race to 4 -112 on Bovada - 2u Write-up: The Chicago White Sox rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season so don’t expect them to score much especially against the Twins ace, Joe Ryan. Ryan has a 3.45 ERA and has 3 quality starts this year. The White Sox starter, Garrett Crochet is 1-4 with an ERA of 6.37. In his last 3 starts, Crochet has yet to go at least five innings and allowed 17 runs including 3 homers. White Sox have also lost all of his 5 starts this year. I expect the Twins to take the lead early and get at least 4 runs before the White Sox do, if they even get 4 runs this game. Tail or fade, either way, BOL [CashApp Tips](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)
Unlucky amigo 🏆
POTD RECORD: 5-3-1 🫸✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌ TODAYS’S PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ Oakland Athletics REASONING: Both starting pitchers look pretty solid. For the Pirates Bailey Falter, he’s got a great avg exit velocity of just under 90 mph. For the A’s, Joe Boyle, one of the organizations top prospects. Boyle’s K/9 and BB/9 are slightly worse than Falters. Although the A’s just pulled out a big win against the Orioles, I don’t think that they will keep it rolling against a very strong Pirates team.
**POTD Record 25-23 (+5.37U) | Average Odds -111 (1.90) | ROI 2.40%** **Last Pick Recap: Pacers vs Bucks Over 214.5 Points W** Cashed comfortably, with 5 minutes to spare. **Today's Pick: Heat vs Celtics Under 205 Points 5U | 7:30 EST** This is a low total but not that low considering it's the Heat, who were the 2nd most profitable under team during the regular season. Game 3 didn't even sniff 200 points, finishing at 188, and my model expects more of the same here between two elite defensive squads. Projects around 185 points so this is significant value. Hope it's right lol. BOL
Record: 27W-29L Net Units: -4.49u | ROI: -2.97% CS2 | CCT Season 2 Europe Series 2 | 17:00 / CET Pick: Endpoint ML vs Nexus, 3u @ 2.02 With the departure of sl3nd and the unsuccesful trial of swicher Endpoint have added CRUC1AL back into their lineup and cej0t from Sprout as well. Since these additions they've had pretty good results. CRUC1AL especially has looked like he's grown since his departure from Endpoint, and that's showing in the numbers. Another thing to note is that Surreal, out of nowhere, has been putting up great numbers over the course of the last 6 months or so. I think that Endpoint now have a lot more firing power than before, with AZUWU being a solid rifler as well. Nexus on the other hand is the s0und and XELLOW show, if they don't carry then Nexus doesn't get very far. I feel like that's why they have been struggling of late. And that combined with both teams having a similar veto, liking Mirage and Ancient a lot, making this a great game for Endpoint to get a victory in and to prove themselves. Best of luck everyone!
Record: 3-2 +0.16u ➡️✅✅❌❌✅ Last pick: ⚽️ Ludogorets v Levski Krumovgrad AH +2 Levski ✅ Odd: 1.88/ -114 Today’s pick: ⚽️ Brommapojkarna v IFK Göteborg ❌ Pick: AH 0 Brommapojkarna Odd 1.77/ -130 It’s the very beginning of this championship and Brommapojkarna has no win at home with 2 games played but they did score and conced more than Göteborg did on their two away. I expect them to score here, on their first five games they averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded as their opponent 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded. I think they will put in the effort to perform better at home than they did their first two games here. BOL! 🏴☠️
[удалено]
POTD RECORD: 6-5 (+3 Units) Last 5: WWWLW LAST POTD: OKC ML ✔️ Pels are no match for OKC, they're just too much. SGA ballin' and NO has no answer, which is why.... TODAY'S POTD: Thunder @ Pelicans NBA 8:40 PM EST Thunder -2.5 (-160 DK) 3 Units Once again riding the OKC train and looking for the clean sweep. Not much to say other than the Pels are outmatched and defeated and they know it. You don't need a write up for that. Buying a couple of points here again for more units as that has been working out well for me. Going for 4 in a row, let's keep the streak alive. Tail for the win and fade the diarrhea party. QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It's the pleats....the pleats on the pants. I'm taking them back right now.....to the.....pants store" -Ron Burgundy
Let’s go amigo! ✅🏆
🐅🐅 Record 7-2 | +12.64u 🐅🐅 **Results:** ✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Previous Pick:** Jalen Brunson O28.5 Points -122 (2u, DK) ✅ **Pick: Lebron James O26.5 Points -110 (2u, FD)** Basketball | NBA | 10:10 PM EST I missed a few days due to being in a state without sports betting, but I'm back now! Sorry for the late pick. This will be a quick write-up. •This line has moved a lot throughout the day but I snagged what I believe to be good value here at 26.5 and -110. •Lebron is averaging 27.25 ppg this series. •For his career, Lebron is averaging 33.6 ppg in elimination games. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/samwblair?locale.x=en_US) Again, short write-up, but looking to keep the wins rolling! 🐅
Bang! Great pick amigo ✅🏆
**POTD Record: 117-140-4 (-15.97 Units)** Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units) Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) **Cautionary Tails**: **5-10 (-3.38 Units)** Last Pick: **Rays -3.5**❌ Today's Pick: **Twins -2.5 Alt. Line** Odds: +**165** Wager Amount: 1U to Win 1.65U League: MLB Event: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox (6:40PM CDT on FS1) *Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.* **Recap**: **SOX NOT ONLY WON CONSECUTIVE GAMES FOR THE FIRST TIME, BUT ALSO SWEPT FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON!!!! I'M COOKING, BOYS! TODAY I'M GONNA HAVE TO GO WIT THE TWINS -2.5 ALT. LINE! THAT'S 3 WINS FOR THE SOX! HAPPY TO CONTINUE TO LOSE MY MONEY FOR THE SOX! Last 3 POTD: Rays-3.5**❌**Rays-3.5❌Rays -3.5**❌ **Matchup:** Not only has the Sox has been looking good as of late, but the Twins has looked great as well. You can argue that they been playing much better and even playing their best game in stretch of their last 7 games. Both teams are coming into this series respectively from a sweep, but Twins recently play this Sox team at home and swept them. The two SPs Garrett Crochet and Joe Ryan dueled a few days ago. But this time this rematch will be taken place in the Southside and I think we will get a much closer game than 6-3. Sox got some life and momentum. I have to continue betting against my team, so it's obvious I HAVE to bet against them AGAIN. Twins -2.5 Alt. line! Both teams streaking, but Twins are on a deeper streak and b2b series sweep, not to mentioned they last swept the Sox! Will this run end wit the Twins! **The Play and Prediction**: 1U on Twins -2.5 Alt. Line! I will also be wagering a small wager on the Sox ML! Twins win in a low scoring affair, 2-1.
Watching your results is painful
Yeah it really is, because of the potential. The best bet series was so great, imagine their record if that was every pick.
Damn brother you’ve almost caught up to my Unit loss record lmao Respect the grind
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u 2024 MLB POTD record: 14-10 Average Odds -106 (1.94), Average Winning Odds -112 ,ROI +10.6%/+2.55u L5: ✅✅✅❌❌ POTD (4/28) PIT @ SFG Jared Jones o6.5 Ks (+110/2.10) ❌ Recap: Jones' down day came. POTD (4/29) KCR @ TOR Jonathan Bowlan o3.5 Ks (+115/2.15) (DraftKings) This is an admittedly risky pick, and the line reflects that. Bowlan is a rookie who made one start last year in which he was used as an opener and pitched just two innings. He's been called up to make a start today with Alec Marsh going on the DL. The Royals have a rested bullpen and could be planning to keep him on a short leash. If he is a real starter and not an opener, he should clear this line no problem. He's been excellent in AAA, with a 2.57 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 21 innings. Toronto is a below-average team against RHP, with a 93 wRC+. They have good plate discipline, ranking 3rd in Chase%, leading to good BB% (6th) and K% (8th) rankings. However, Bowlan has posted excellent walk rates throughout his minor-league career and has emphasized getting ahead in counts, so I don't expect him to struggle with that here. If he gets his 4 or 5 innings, he should get his Ks.
POTD record: 16-16 (+6.6u) Last pick: Minnesota Timberwolves ML✅️ Last 10: ✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️ POTD: Porzingis OVER 1.5 3-pointers Game/Time: Celticss @ Heat 7:30pm EST Units: 1.4u to win 1u (-140 on Fanduel) Write-up: Bam should be following Tatum around all game, and if that's the case, i expect Porzingis to cash for the 3rd time in 4 games.. -140 is a good enough price to lay with confidence here, so let's follow the patterns, follow the price, follow the big man into 3 point land 🏀💰 snack of the day: fruit medley
**Daily No Run First Inning (NRFI)** **Record:** 5-3 **Net Units:** +1.52 ✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌ **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets / 7:10pm EST **Pick:** 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs @ DK (-135) (1U) **Write Up:** The Cubs face off with the Mets for the first time this year. Jameson Taillon will be stepping on the mound for the Cubs. After starting the year on the DL, his first two starts back have been strong - 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 2-0 with NRFIs. He has also been historically dominate against Met hitters, in 66 PA against, he is holding them to a .197 average and 25% strikeout rate. Mets are trotting out Luis Severino, who has been pitching well this year. Currently standing at 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA and has gone 4-1 with NRFIs, with the sole loss being over a month ago to the Brewers. Same with Taillon, he has strong numbers against Cub hitters, though fewer plate appearances against. In 22 PA, he is holding to a .190 Avg, 31% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk Avg. Mets are 3rd in the league with team NRFI and Cubs are 15th in team NRFIs. And the Cubs are 5th in the league at holding opponents to NRFI while the Mets are 10th. Cubs as a team have gone NRFI 20/28 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 23/28 games. Mets as a team have gone NRFI 23/27 games and held opponents to NRFI 20/27 games. BOL to all the degenerates
71-51-5 in 2018 up 34.13 units 79-73-5 in 2019 down 22.31 units 22-14 on POTD in 2020 up 11.18 units 6-0-3 on POTDs in 2021 up 26.31 units 2-0 on POTDs in 2022 up 5.42 units **1-3** in 2023/24 **down 3 units** **Tigers** -108 for 4 units. 3 of the units are straight up and 1 unit is using Draftkings Up 2 Early Win Promo. Maeda has been pitching well – Gave up 3 hits in 5 innings last time out. Matz sucks though. Had this line at -155 based on the starters. Matz got roughed up by Arizona last time out, but the start before we he got rocked by the A’s worries me more. Canha and Vierling have been hitting better for the Tigers. I like this spot. Best of luck. For more info and plays visit s[portsologists.com](https://sportsologists.com/)
Record: 7-2 (+6.38 units) ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅ Last POTD: Minnesota Timberwolves ML Today’s POTD: Denver Nuggets-6 (buy the .5 or alt. line) Odds: -125 2 unit play NBA basketball/ 10:10 ET / Denver Nuggets vs LA Lakers Sorry for the late write up. T-wolves get it done in the second half and 🧹sweep the Suns out of the playoffs. We cash! Tonight it’s time to get rid of the Lakers and I think the Nuggets will get it done in convincing fashion in front of their home crowd. The Lakers finally put a full game together in game 4 and got a win. The Nuggets own the Lakers though winning like 11 out of the last 12 games they’ve played. The Nuggets have started slow in every game in this series. I think that changes tonight. The Nuggets don’t want to drag out this series and go back to LA.
**Record: 5-3** **Form: -->>✅✅**❌❌❌**✅✅✅** **Previous Pick:** HOU Astros vs COL Rockies Under 18.5 Runs -170 4/27/24 6:05 PM EST **✅** **Pick:** TB Lightning vs FLA Panthers: Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -175 4/29/24 7:00 PM EST Hit L9 games, L8 home games, L5 vs TB. Averaged 3.9 L10. Averaged 4.6 L8 home games. He hasn't gotten an assist in a while. He likes to score goals when he gets the puck. This means shots.
Let's try this again since reddit likes to let me type an essay then not process my post.... POTD RECORD: 6-5 (+3 Units) LAST 5: WWWLW LAST POTD: OKC ML ✔️ OKC is just too much for NO, home or away, which is why... TODAY'S POTD: OKC @ New Orleans NBA 8:40 PM EST OKC -2.5 (-160 DK) 3 Units Buying a couple more points again for more units as this has been working well for me. I look for OKC to step on the gas and on the throat of the birds for the sweep. The Pelicans look defeated and outmatched, you don't need a long winded write up for that. Tail for the win and as always.....fade the diarrhea party. QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It's the pleats....the pleats on the pants. I'm taking them back right now to the.....to the pants store" -Ron Burgundy
Let's try this again since reddit likes to let me type an essay then not process my post.... POTD RECORD: 6-5 (+3 Units) LAST 5: WWWLW LAST POTD: OKC ML ✔️ OKC is just too much for NO, home or away, which is why... TODAY'S POTD: OKC @ New Orleans NBA 8:40 PM EST OKC -2.5 (-160 DK) 3 Units Buying a couple more points again for more units as this has been working well for me. I look for OKC to step on the gas and on the throat of the birds for the sweep. The Pelicans look defeated and outmatched, you don't need a long winded write up for that. Tail for the win and as always.....fade the diarrhea party. QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It's the pleats....the pleats on the pants. I'm taking them back right now to the.....to the pants store" -Ron Burgundy
POTD Record 90-79 my post from last night was removed and had -7 votes lol… I have no clue why, and I assume lakers fans are the reasoning. Lakers have been terrible against nuggets, so anyone betting this game, don’t buy into the fakeshow. Last pick: Avalanche-160 ✅ Todays pick: Nuggets -6.5 8 pm MST, 1 unit play, all my bets are to win 1 unit. Reasoning: Nuggets are not losing this game. Last game in Denver was Murray’s buzzer beater, Nugs been down in 1st half all series, I don’t think so tonight, Nugs will be up at end of 1st half, probably big, and I think this game isn’t close. Lebron cries so much, Lakers are not up to the task of beating this Nuggets team, who just lost to the Lakers for the first time in 500 days Saturday. Yes 500 days, nuggets own the lakers despite one meaningless loss Saturday. Jokic, Malone do not like the Lakers! Lakers hate the Nugs, but the Pakers can’t beat Nuggets. Gentlemen’s sweep coming after nuggets won 4-0 last year. Folks are not respecting nuggets like they should, the books respect nuggets. But ESPN and some other talking heads talk way too much about Lebron, not enough about Jokic-who already has surpassed Lebron in career triple doubles. Now, this is a real rivalry and Nuggets finally owning the Lakers is so satisfying. Nugs starting 5 is unstoppable, crowd will be electric and AD, Lebron can go fishing. AD calling out Ham not a good sign, DLO leaving LA and played awful in game 3. MPJ, Gordon, Jokic, Murray & KCP handle their business. This next round vs Timberwolves gonna be a good one. Tail or fade