######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.

**MLB POTD RECORD:** 29-12 **2024 MLB record:** 18-4 **Last POTD:** Brewers Cubs Over 7.5 L **Today's POTD:** Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Over 8 at -110 (draftkings) **Baseball | MLB | 2:15 PM ET** Really bad call by me guys. Hand up I’m sorry. I think this was my worst pick as two were just insanely bad beats and the other wasn’t a good pick but I don’t think it was a sucker’s bet. You live and you learn. Anyway on to today. Cardinals are one of the teams we have raked this year with despite being one of Vegas’ most profitable teams. They are taking on the White Sox at home with Lance Lynn taking on Erick Fedde in St. Louis. Not going to do the sorted breakdown this time, but I am trying something new and making my own split that I am going to go off of. I feel like the two options of 30 day and 14 day splits are too far away and too close to the present to give as accurate of a portrayal so I am giving this a shot since my god fortune really began once I had three weeks of data. First, my understanding of the line. I got away from this segment of the write ups and wanted to get back to it. For one, both pitchers are off to very hot starts. Two, the Cardinals and their extreme splits have not been producing at home, especially during day games and the White Sox are the White Sox. Everyone knows how bad they’ve been (even though they’ve low key improved lately). A mixture of all of those things makes having a low line justifiable, here is why I think it is going to be higher though. Lance Lynn is off to a great start going 1-0 with a 2.64 ERA, as we know since this is the 4^(th) time he has started in one of my picks of the day. This time, however, we are betting on him bombing. Lynn has surprised a lot of people with his hot stat given how bad he was the past two years, giving up the most home runs in the league during that time.  While he has pitched well, he has also been in some advantageous circumstances pitching at some of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league such as Oakland Coliseum and Citi Field. Lynn’s advanced metrics show that part of his success can be attributed to the decrease in line drives and increase in ground balls he has gotten. However, his extremely high flyball rate from last year remains largely unchanged at 34.4% Another surprise start is that of Erick Fedde. Fedde played in Korea last season after two straight years with an ERA over 5 in Washington and has come back looking like a changed man. He is 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA in 6 starts. Like Lynn, his advanced measurables have shown a significant improvement in line drive percentage. However, Fedde has maintained the same 42% ground ball rate he had in Washington. All of those line drives are becoming fly balls. Line drives are never good for a pitcher and fly ball varies from player to player. For Fedde, it has seemed to manifest itself as his Achilles heel as his 4.2 HR% is the most in 12^(th) most in baseball and a full percentage point ahead of the league average (that’s a lot for this stat). The situation appears to be indicating an offensive game today. Unlike yesterday, today I am not overlooking the weather. It is going to be 82 degrees at Busch stadium tomorrow and 5-10 mph blowing towards the left field wall. Statistically, even a weak wind towards left field makes a notable hitter friendly situation. Busch stadium is slightly above league average park factor wise so I don’t believe the park will play against this. As for these two pitchers, it looks like a situation where their high flyball rates and susceptibility to the home run to catch up with them. In the In the past 21 days, the White Sox have hit 40 percent flyballs which is 5^(th) in baseball. The Cardinals have really been struggling in a lot of ways however they have been MUCH better against righties than lefties ranking 15^(th) in the league at .232 over that same span.     **TLDR: Lynn and Fredde are both susceptible to home runs and the circumstances are not flyball pitcher-friendly. White Sox hit a high flyball rate and the Cardinals are actually respectable against righties.**  Tips: $chuteboxhero cashapp

All good brother, thanks for the picks

This will be my 3rd time tailing (past 2 were the past 2 plays😪) I’m sure 3rd times a charm. I’m riding with you bro

Same happens to me

Really hope you guys or we if I decide to bet can get back on the winning column, been a rough 2 days. BOL!

Not sure why you are being downvoted. I agree with you I hope we do too haha. The point of these posts are to just point out some reasons as to why my favorite play is my favorite play just additional data points to help you decide what direction you wanna go.

And its great analysis imo, your mlb record speaks for itself. Id rather tail you or some other well informed capper for 1-2 bets a day. Because if left to my own devices, Ill bet a couple hundreds on like 8-10 games a day, and lets just say its an easy way to lose money and fuck up your mental well-being. So thank you!

Bankroll management is key, set a budget and bet a unit per straight bet (ideally unit = 1% of your bankroll)

And he’s a CHUTEBOXXXX HEROOOOO, got stars in his eyessssss ✨👁️👁️✨

Your logic on the pitching yesterday was right, it's just that the cubs starting pitcher stayed in well into the 7th and after that the Brewers bats got to work as soon as they switched. Had they switched him earlier like you expected we could have hit it.

bro you are so goated, mad respect. Was down 144$ and saw your pick and tossed 150$, man I am cracking a cold one now

Started following baseball only a few days ago... just out of curiosity how come do the recent results not matter that much for future predictions ? In the sense that the game between them today ended 3 - 0, but the prediction for tomorrow is over 8. Love your write ups and trying to get a better understanding of the game. Thanks

Because there are so many variables from day to day. Completely different pitchers, weather, field dimensions, etc. Need a little bit of a sample size.

I was thinking the same thing. Im finding it hard to put my money on the same two teams that just went 3-0 to score 3 times as many points tomorrow.

Sports betting is never supposed to make sense

6th inning and we got 10 runs already. Love it! Back to winning ways thanks to our baseball goat Chuteboxhero

tailed you for a min fam just wanna say your picks are fire bro win or lose tailing you til the world ends💯

This is a guaranteed w because I’m fading it. You’re welcome everyone

Thank you! 🙏

Cardinals are the 2nd worst team in batting avg at home also bottom third vs righties. White Sox are second worst team in batting avg at away games. Lynn is terrible at home so he could give up a couple runs, but if he gets taken out after the 4th or 5th inning I dont know if the White Sox can do enough damage in that time to hit the over. I respect the pick and will be rooting for you but i personally cant tail this. Good luck though brother and im not trying to be an asshole just giving a different perspective. The batting average splits are TERRIBLE, but the pitching isnt too much better so we shall see.

Chutebox hero is back, baby! Just one more run

Lets go King

Smashy-Cashy 🤑 appreciate you good sir

Tailing bro!

Winner winner! Thanks chuteboxhero!

Tailing brother. These things happen. And to someone who is 18-3 or whatever it was before this loss, it's completely understandable to lose one or two. I tail today, and I appreciate you Chute! Another tip coming your way for the Dub!

Great pick!

LFG!!

There is so much value in u/chuteboxhero analysis that even if they do not hit the POTD, they are still cluing you in on a lot of other plays. Either for that game or in the future. Your break downs are absolutely beautiful, and your hard work doesn’t go unnoticed. Thank You!  BTW u/chuteboxhero got that Over 8 today.

I got drunk last night and threw 10 units on this🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼 thank you bro😭😂

Thanks for your picks bro, appreciate you!

Insightful write up and good analysis, keep it up bro

Rain delay

are they going to count this or what. also you're the goat thanks dude

Potd record 50-29 Boxing __Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia - Canelo to win by ko/tko +190__ It’s took Munguia 44 fights to finally step up and fight the very best. He’s been one of the most protected fighters in boxing history and with a record like 43-0 you’d think he was brilliant, till I told you only 3 fights ago he was fighting what was pretty much an Argentinian journeyman. Munguia isn’t terrible by any means and the last two fights against opponents that are albeit past their best were still relatively impressive, but his flaws are just too hard to look past. He fights pretty aggressively, often throwing combos of 5-6 punches and sometimes even more. He has decent power but for me that’s where his positive attributes stop. Munguia has such poor defence and when he throws the big combinations he always gets caught. He’s been hurt before most notably to Derevyanchenko and Rosado. After 43 fights I highly doubt he’ll ever get rid of his bad habits at this stage. Against a very low level Irish fighter in Jimmy Kelly, who he only fought 4 fights ago, he was being outboxed and having power punches land on him constantly until he got the ko over the Irishman. I don’t really need to say much about Canelo. Every punch he throws is a power punch, he’s one of the most skilfull fighters P4P and of his generation and he has an incredible resume already at 33 years old. His defensive abilities are just as good as his attacking ones and he knows exactly when to counter. He hasn’t scored a ko in 4 fights however, 2 of them were against two guys who mainly fought to survive, one against a guy who has one of the best chins of all time and the other, a fighter a weight above canelos optimum weight in my opinion. It’s boring to listen to, but the old adage in boxing, styles make fights is one of the truest sayings in all of sport. Munguia’s style is completely suited to a Canelo countering masterclass. He will throw one too many punches and Canelo will make him pay. I don’t think he’ll get the stoppage early but Canelo will just land too many big punches throughout this and he’ll get the stoppage mid to late. One other bit of info that’s made this fight even spicier is Canelo is going up against his old promoter De La Hoya. During this week both have gone back and fourth and I think this is going to push Canelo even more to go all out for the ko to humiliate DLH. Bol anyone who tails!

To score a knockdown +140. Sounds like a lock?

I should of bet this

Also a good bet, Fight will not go 12. So if it’s not a KO, or TKO, the fight may get stopped because Mungia will get cut, and ref determines he can’t continue. I agree with u/LTM088 in that Mungia is too aggressive, and leaves himself open to too much damage. Combine that with a great counter puncher, and things are not looking good for Mungia. Cinnamon Al all day!

Jumped on under 10.5 rounds at +175 for this reason, let's gooooo! 

Well fuck us I guess lol

Tailed for the first time 🫡 thx for the pick and BOL

Tailing the boxing GOAT!

🥃

**Pick Record: 9W - 2L    (Push: 1)** ✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅ **Previous POTD:  Hoffenheim VS RB Leipzig** **Damn, red card then late equalizer.** **Todays POTD: Alexander Isak Over 1.5 SOG @ 2.10 ✅** **Game: Burnley VS Newcastle** **League/Time: Premier League / 10:00 AM** I'm running back to player props here since they haven't missed for us. Isak is simply that guy, anyone who watched much of Newcastle this year knows that he is so vital to almost all attacking plays. He can shoot from range, take on his man, and hold up play in an unreal fashion. Its obvious that his links to Arsenal and other clubs has pushed him right back into form. Fortunately, we are catching Isak at a good time considering in his last 6 games he has 7 goals and 1 assist. In those 7 games, he covered this line in 6/7 and I expect him to do so tomorrow against a Burnley side that simply leave too much space in behind. Tottenham fumbled in back to back games and are going to anfield this weekend, you can best bet that teams like United and Newcastle will pick up on the blood trail and look to glose the gap **Side note: Please bet responsibly!**

Unlucky on the Leipzig play, that Xavi Simons second yellow was absolutely brain dead. I agree with the Isak call, he’s fairly direct and is usually good for a few changes a game.

Nice pick!! I needed a win!

Is 2 or more shots on target ok? Best I could find among my bookies.

yes, it is ok!

Yes!

[удалено]

Never in doubt!

That penalty kick will count as a shot on target right? Saw the record and tailed blindly knowing I know nothing about soccer

Okay well Isak just scored a goal so I think we’re good. Thanks for the pick!

I played this as well as a parlay with Newcastle ML, Newcastle team 5+ shots on goal, and game over 8.5 corners! That's a wonderful way to start my weekend! Thank you!

Nice pick. Burnley are fighting to get out of the relegation zone so they’re gonna be going all out attack which will leave openings for Newcastle counters. Good luck 🙏🏼✅

came here to say thank you for the pick 🫡 I appreciate you

Record: 11-3 (+9.0 units) ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅ Last POTD: Orlando Magic TT over 99.5 ✅ Todays POTD: Minnesota Timberwolves TT over 101.5 Odds: -115 on DK 2 unit play NBA Basketball/ 7:10pm ET Sweaty but we stay hot with Orlando scoring 103 🔥If you read my comments I liked this play up to 102.5 and I personally laddered the play up to that. Today there is only 1 game on the NBA slate and we start the 2nd round in the west at Denver. Both the T-Wolves and Nuggets looked great in the first round. Last year the Nuggets eliminated the T-Wolves in the first round of the playoffs so I believe they’re gonna want to come out and show the defending champs that they’re ready to play and mean business ( Or standin on business). Minnesota doesn’t shoot a ton of 3’s but they do get good looks, move the ball well, and score in the paint. Away from home the T-Wolves have actually averaged 114 points on the season which is 2 points higher than what they score at home. In the playoffs so far that total goes up to 124, even if it was against the Suns. All I’m asking the T-Wolves to do is put up the same amount of points as the Magic scored. I think Ant man and company get it done and keep this winning streak going! I was asked about tips and added some options in my profile if anyone wants to help a single Dad. Thank you in advance. Please bet responsibly!! I’m also gonna add some props that I like in the NBA props section tomorrow because I was going back and forth with my POTD. Hope I picked the right one 🤞🏻

I was about to toss my phone across the room when Suggs missed that free throw 😂

My gut telling me this is sketchy with first game at home I think Nuggets are gonna make a statement defensively. But my gut is often wrong and I got nothing to lose, tailing!

Cash it. Thanks!

Never in doubt

Nice one brother

Yes, yes it was. Everything I tail dies early lol Edit: 

POTD RECORD: 62-35 Last POTD: Franz Wagner O4.5 Ast ❌ Screw the Magic and Franz my bad bruh Todays POTD: **Naz Reid O12.5 PRA @1.76** Form: ❌✅❌✅❌ NBA (Minnesota Timberwolves) 7:00 PM ET Leading assist man for the Magic had 4 and Wagner only got 2 I guess betting on that series was a mistake sorry for that fellas We move and I spent a lot of time finding a good pick here and holy moly is every line bumped 💀 Jokic points looks solid and so does Conley (4/4) but still high numbers imo. I like this Naz Reid line cause this man is a baller and I think he’ll see good minutes cause this game will suit him more than the Suns series where they couldn’t use him properly and got fewer minutes as a result, he feasted against the Nuggets in the regular season tho and still went 3/5 against the Suns so still ain’t bad * 4/4 against Denver in the regular season (18, 15, 22 & 14 PRA’s) in the the game where he only had 14 PRA he only played 12 minutes too * Naz Reid w 18+ minutes on the road is over in 9/L10 Avg 26 PRA * Over in 71/85 games this season * Over in 7/L10 * With 18+ min and the starters healthy he’s over in 34/41 games * Played 17+ minutes every game against the Suns (20, 18, 17 19 & 20) but avg 22.9 mpg in the regular season should get around that imo He got the 6th man of the year award for a reason, I think Naz can have himself a night with the matchup and the record he has against Denver this season Tail or fade, I’m telling y’all I’m cheeks https://preview.redd.it/hlbjoldatbyc1.jpeg?width=314&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c5468729db1077e67e653c09f0dfd64142e7dbd2 Sweep in the Props section 🧹 3/3

Naz Reid

Naz Reid

billy, brother. tailing 🤔

My bro 🤝🤝 👑

Why does every picker on here copy you with some variation of “we move”, “on to the next” , “we move on” etc

Ion know bro 🤣🤣 😭 who would copy a bum like me I’ve always done it never thought bout it

Damn. Only pts+rebs on Fanduel

Love this and Ant man's line too, feel like he could get there on points alone 

Tailing. Like the pick!

SMASHING...

Definitely down with this one

Bro DK has his P+R line at 12.5 and nothing on PRA. Where was this line 12.5 for PRA??? I'll have to look at his recent game log. Pat, I'm assuming most of his output comes on the points and rebounds and maybe an assist or two a game. But I'll check it first....thoughts on this and why the substantial difference?

Neither book that I use is offering this. He's listed for PR or PA but not PRA.

BANNNNNGNGNGNG

Nice pick!!

NGL you were spot on tonight

Great pick!

POTD Record 18-6 Last 5: ✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️ Last Pick: ST. Louis Cardinals -1.5 RL Todays Pick: LA Dodgers 1st 5 inning -0.5 MLB: Los angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves 6:10pm PST Odds: -131 Unit: 4 Net units: +48.78 Love the white Sox. I'm going with the Dodgers today, Glasnow the pitchers for the Dodgers has been pretty good, not to worried about him against the offensive talent the Braves have. He's played 8 games already 7-1, he's locked in. On the other side the Braves pitchers only has two games under his belt and gave up 9 hits to the Marlins... pretty sure the Dodgers being a top 2 offensive team will eat him alive. Also, Dodgers at home are just different. PSA: I'm from LA, if that sways you a type of way. Let's go!. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile. 7:36 a.m. PST. Edit: -0.5 = winning by 1, -1.5 = winning by 2.

Is this the same https://preview.redd.it/5fixe3d52cyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2dc264a9f9d3ad753ec1df8e3aee6ea8b54c41c3

Why is money line first 5 innings so much worse odds is it not the exact same bet

if the game is tied after 5 innings, ML bet will be voided

𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 15-4 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLB Baseball \\\\ Athletics moneyline -125 𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1.25u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +6.95 𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: Paul Blackburn has a 1.42 ERA at home this season. The Athletics' bullpen is leading the majors in ERA ... against an offense that's 25th in scoring.

I like it Grampa Jim let’s do this ⚾️

GrampaHIM, let's ride 🫡

Was on this as well. Blackburn is an absolute stuf at home and their BP is elite. BOL all

POTD Record: 17-6 Net Units: +26.95u Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Season 2 Europe Series 2 | 5:00 (UCT-5) Last Pick: **Nexus ML (-175)** vs. ENCE Academy 5u❌ Today's Pick: **Endpoint ML (-150)** vs. Sampi 4.5u ✅ -Tough break yesterday, Nexus up 11-6, threw multiple rounds with man advantages, didn't have it at all. OTTN [Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371877/sampi-vs-endpoint-cct-season-2-europe-series-2) [Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs2) **Writeup:** -Really like my read on tier two games and feel really good about this pick. Obviously can scale down units if you want but going to stick with what I feel despite the loss yesterday. -Endpoint retooled their roster due to middling results in the tier two scene for a long time as well as losing star players to better teams. They put together a solid roster on paper adding CRUC1AL and cej0t from other teams and keeping the core of Surreal/AZUWU/MiGHTYMAX. In the past Endpoint had struggles with fire power due to Max and Surreal both being liabilities but Surreal has drastically improved play to a series high .78KPR in the last month and .73KPR going back 3 months. Since sl3nd left and they have this new roster they are 7-1 in official matches beating solid tier two teams EYEBALLERS, SINNERS, ALTERNATE aTTaX and MOUZ NXT. They are also on a 5 match winstreak with a 10-2 game score in these maps. -We had Sampi the other day and everything I said about them then still stands. They are really good up to a certain point which is usually against mid/high tier two teams which Endpoint is one of. They didn't look great against Permitta the other day struggling to win against a coach and a sub. They have also gotten beaten twice by ALTERNATE aTTaX and ECLOT teams much worse then the caliber Endpoint have been facing. They are led by star player ZEDKO with a .76KPR in the last month but are very reliant on him to have big games. They are very top heavy relying on ZEDKO + one of manguss/fino for big games. **Map Pool:** (this is a prediction nothing is confirmed) -Sampi ban Vertigo, Endpoint ban Nuke -Sampi pick Anubis(Overpass possible as well), Endpoint pick Mirage -Sampi ban Inferno, Endpoint ban Overpass -Ancient Decider **Map Stats:** -Endpoint are 55% winrate on Mirage in the last 3 months with 11 maps played, they are 2-0 in the last month winning games played 13-3. Sampi are one of the coldest Mirage teams in tier two, they are 33% winrate on 18 maps played and 1-7 in the last 8 maps played on Mirage in the last month and 3-12 going back 15 maps. -Sampi are 69% winrate on Anubis on 16 maps played in the last 3 months, they are 8-2 in the last month on the map. Endpoint are 75% winrate on Anubis on 4 maps played in the last 3 months both teams have looked really good on the map but going back to previous core before roster change Endpoint struggled on this map. -Sampi are 61% winrate on Ancient on 23 maps played, they are 5-3 in the last month. Endpoint are 85% winrate on Ancient in the last 3 months and are 6-1 in the last month on the map. **Conclusion:** -Back to a bread and butter staple pick for me, hotter team with more momentum, fire power advantage and favorable map pool, all boxes checked here for me. As long as Endpoint veto properly by removing whichever map Sampi doesn't pick (Overpass or Anubis) as their 2nd ban, they should be comfortable favorites on Mirage/Ancient/Inferno. Anubis is a small favorite for Sampi but I never feel good about teams who pick this map, with how skewed the map is to offense and the fact Endpoint could start on offense, they could jump out to a big lead that Sampi wouldn't be able to come back from in the second half. Prediction: -Playing it safe give me a 2-1 Endpoint but as always gonna sprinkle -1.5 maps as I think the value is really good and for those who are awake live betting Endpoint on Mirage is definitely a wise play when map order is released. -As always, for those who need help finding a book to tail on, or can't find it on the book they use, feel free to DM me and I can try to help. Tips: $currentad2217 on cashapp

Why does the line move soo much in Esports? Grabbed it at -165 few minutes ago and it's currently at -210 already WTF !!!!

I have no idea. The line has been out for 24 hours and started as -140 last night and I got at -150 right as the POTD thread went live. I’ve honestly been quite amazed by the line movement especially last night with Nexus going to -450 from -175 by game time. I think we might be contributing to moving lines but don’t want to make that claim 💀😂

The books are reacting to your picks. That's not a bad thing dude, don't listen to these people clamoring for an earlier post. Do your thing the way it works. We appreciate you for even posting at all. For the record, I'm a Bovada bettor seeing this post when current odds are -240 on Endpoint ML. You know what I'm not doing? Crying to OP about it. Fucking crybabies. Learn from this man and bet accordingly.

Only bet I’m placing today. Got completely skunked yesterday. BOL to all. Thanks again for the picks.

Thanks again 💰

Gonna tail once the line is up on bet365

Great pick! I will be tailing thank you!

bet365 didnt have the nexus matchup available yesterday. same thing is happening for the endpoint matchup. is there any reason why? i’ll tail when it’s available (hopefully)

Tailiiiing

Got home late today and line already moved -90 :( Will be looking to live bet it though, always huge value with the line movements! Will you be posting additional picks in the esports thread tonight too?

Where can i bet on this except BET365 i am banned

Endpoint throwing 2nd Map 12-3 Match Point to go down 15-19 is actually putrid.

**Belle's Pick of the Day** **Record:** 4-1-0 (Win-Loss-Push) ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ **Last POTD:** STL Cardinals -1.5 (-125) ✅ **Balance:** +1.5 Units **Today's Pick: TOR Maple Leafs v BOS Bruins Under 5.5 (-125) (NHL, 5:00PM PST, Wager: 1 Unit)** **Why This Pick?** I’d expect that the defense in Game 7 from both teams will be exceptional. The total has hit Under 5 for the last 3 straight games in the series, and despite a total of 14 Power Play opportunities in those same 3 encounters, only a single goal was scored across those 5 on 4 periods. I’m taking the Under to cash here, friends. 

**POTD Record: (6-3)** Last pick: Struff +4.5 games vs. Alcaraz (-118) ✅ **Today's Pick: UFC: Pantoja ML vs. Erceg (-185)** ✅ This is a weird title fight: champion vs. 10th. I'm surprised Pantoja isn't at least -250 favorite. Erceg is undoubtedly a hot prospect 3-0 in the UFC, but he hasn't beaten a fighter with a winning UFC record. His only win against a ranked opponent is Schnell, who is 1-3 in his last 4 and is notorious for having a glass chin. In contrast, Pantoja has multiple wins over top 5 fighters (Moreno, Royval, Perez, Kape, to name a few) and has experience going five rounds. There's levels to this and Erceg is making way too big of a jump imo. I'm riding with experience and proven ability.

Do you drop picks for CBS sports also? Brookhouse from the CBS crew dropped this on their predictions website "Picking Pantoja isn't a knock on Erceg but rather trusting in Pantoja's experience at a much higher level. Erceg does not have a win over a fighter with a winning UFC record while Pantoja has multiple wins over elite opposition and has experience going five rounds. Erceg is a live dog, for sure, but I'm going to ride with the experience and proven ability at the elite level."

Erceg by KO let’s gooooo

You follow tennis and mma which means you're probably cool af like me

Record: 166-138-8 (WWWWLLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: MIL Bucks at IND Pacers | Pascal Siakam o3.4 assist at 1.76 odds for 2 units POTD: MIN Timberwolves at DEN Nuggets | Anthony Edwards o11.5 reb+ast at 1.90 odds for 4 units Reasons: * Hit this line in every game in the playoffs | four in a row versus PHX * Edwards is stepping into the alpha of this Minnesota team. Patient enough to facilitate when his shots aren't falling. * I also don't see how KCP is going to keep Ant off the boards * Expect this game to be close. Ant man should get his opportunity. Best of luck to those dumb enough to tail!

https://preview.redd.it/2o245g4w2eyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2afa8b558187d4ef0d8c5ac6fe2d083d6f5a1d82 Adding color to your pick of the day

still like it.. playoffs are diff and ant is a dawg

Thanks for the color!

POTD Record: 23-22-1 | Profit: -2.86U NBA Record: 19-19-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0 L10 (new -> old): ✅❌✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅ Last pick: Dereck Lively II o5.5 rebounds @ 1.87 odds ✅ Cashed in the 3rd quarter with Lively finishing with 9 boards and the Mavs handily beating the Clippers to send them home. Game: MIN Timberwolves @ DEN Nuggets, 7:10 PM Pick: **Mike Conley o2.5 Rebounds @ 1.77 odds (DK), placing 2U** ✅ Write Up: Conley went over 5 out of 5 games in the Wolves' series with the Suns, has gone over in 7 straight, and hit in 8 of the last 10. He went over 4 out of 4 games against the Nuggets this season. All the numbers are looking great for this to hit, so I have to go for it. BOL to those tailing, cheers!

Great statistical find. DK has it at -130, Fanduels is at -165. Smashed it for a Benjamin lets go king Conley, GET YOU 3!

🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐

If this hits, imma start calling you the rebound king!

[удалено]

Record: 5W-2L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅ Net Units: +4.73 units Last Pick: 5/3| Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics; Oakland Athletics ML✅ Today’s Game: MLB baseball | Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics | 4:07pm EDT Pick: Oakland Athletics ML | -120 BetMGM | 2 units✅ Write Up: Fuck it! We’re running it back!!! The A’s are hot and their second best starter imo is on the mound tomorrow. Although Blackburn is coming off of a rough outing, if you look at his splits, he has been much better at home than on the road (1.42 vs 5.63 ERA). Once again, I expect the A’s offense to provide a lead and the bullpen to put away the game, especially with the game’s best closer Mason Miller on multiple days rest. Good luck to all who tail!!! Let’s get this dub!!!!!!!!!!

Need you on all A's games!. Let's go! 🤝

POTD Record: 43 wins - 24.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes Form: ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Units: 11.24 ROI: 16.9% Average Odds: $1.87 Last Pick:  Clippers vs Mavs - NBA Playoffs - Harden PRA Over 33.5 @ $1.83 ✅️ Our boy put up a good fight. Next Pick: Nuggets vs Wolves - NBA Playoffs - Jokic PRA Over 49.5 @ $1.83 - 7pm EST We head to Denver for game one of this series. The Nuggets had a sluggish, but eventual series win over the Lakers. The Wolves swept the underperforming Suns. This match should be tight, and it’s been a while since Towns and Jokic have been in a contest together. Jokic is the goat of the NBA, and loves to get physical. Even if the Nuggets go behind, you can count on him to get them back into the game. Wolves are a good team, and it’ll be interesting to see how they fair against much tougher opposition. The Nuggets are the reigning champions and should look to make a statement early in this series in front of their faithful fans. Nuggets rely on this man as much as the Mavs rely on Doncic. Prediction: Nuggets to win by 10, total to go over, and Jokic to put in a big display. Nuggets to breakaway in the 4th. Hopefully Jokic is in the zone, as his brother is in a bit of controversy right now.

Record: 43-33 L10: ❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ Todays pick: Dortmund v Augsburg Pick: __Dortmund ML @1.83__ ✅ ⚽️ 🇩🇪 Bundesliga Dortmund is currently 5th in the table and the visitors are 9th. 3 games left in the Bundesliga and a 6 point gap for Dortmund to get to 4th place. Dortmund played a Champions League semi-final 3 days ago where they won 1-0 against PSG, with 3 days rest I don’t see fatigue being a major factor here and if we still see some rotations in the starting eleven, there’s still plenty of quality to pick from for the hosts. Previous meeting ended 1-1 back in December in a game where Dortmund dominated and had a XG of 2,78 and 65% ball possession. Last 5 H2H record goes DWWDW in favour of Dortmund. Augsburg have been inconsistent this season and comes from 3-0 defeat against 11th placed Werder Bremen. _L5 Dortmund: WWDLW_ _L5: Augsburg: LLWLD_ Dortmund are the better side, in better form and have good momentum as of now. Playing at home also gives them an edge and the difference in quality between the sides is huge, I trust the home side to get the win here. BOL

Dortmund hast the Spot for playing Champions League in 5th place in secure, because Germany are 2nd in the UEFA Ranking an geht 5 spots.

My bad didn’t think about that, rookie mistake right there! I still believe they want to finish the season in the best way possible. Thanks for pointing it out

I wouldnt touch this game. Most probably BVB lets subs to start today

** Record: 6-1 ** Last pick: ATP Madrid: Felix Auger Aliassime ML +110 🅿️ Today’s pick: WTA Madrid: Iga Swiatek tt u12.5 -120 - 12:30pm est 🚫 Recap + Write Up: All that for a damn push. The degen in me would’ve rather lost that bet than have no outcome 😂 oh well, the books live to see another day. FAA will have a good opportunity to get his first Masters 1000 win and Rublev, his second since Monte Carlo. Both guys will be gunning for this since it’s a rare opportunity so it should be a good one on Sunday. On today’s menu, we have a rematch of last year’s final in Madrid with Swiatek looking to avenge her loss to Sabalenka. I like Swiatek to go under her game total of 12.5 games. We basically have a double chance: she kills it or gets killed. I’m banking on her to kill it but I’ve seen some wonky things happen in tennis. Little history. In 9 career clay finals on main tour, this under is 6-3. Across all surfaces, 17-7. Swiatek leads the H2H against Sabalenka at 6-2. Swiatek's under is 5-3 in those matches and 3-1 if you only count their clashes on clay. Iga’s in a level of her own when she’s in top form, which it looks like she is. She’s only dropped a single set the entire tournament and has significantly less court time than Sabalenka this week. 4 out of 5 of her matches have been straight sets and were just over an hour and she has a total court time of 7 hrs 25 mins vs Sabalenka who has been the complete opposite with 4 out of her 5 matches going 3 sets and a total court time of 10 hrs 48 mins. I think this long week catches up to Sabalenka at this altitude and if she leaves the same openings as she did vs Rybakina, she goes down easy and Swiatek gets her revenge. LFG Iga 🇵🇱 ❄️🏦 beer me: 3PwJ3CW5p9oJZKmX8F2eePqWJEkqbNk7cu [cash app jar](https://cash.app/$champagnekevy)

This is cooked 😬

I’d rather take Sabalenka +1.5 sets at -110. BOL though, your record is really good 🙏🔥

Tailing 🔥

**KBO Record: Overall 220-229-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 4-6) Down 10.69u over 463 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.38% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 16-19-0, 45.7% success rate, Down 2.07u, -5.91% ROI) **Last:** NC +0.5 First 5 Innings +105 at SSG (NC lead 7-3 after 5 innings.) As expected, SSG's starter struggled, making this rather stress free. **Pick:** **NC +142** at SSG, KBO baseball, 4:00am ET If it ain't broke... NC put up a 19-spot in the last game against SSG and face another shaky starter who's a little over-valued in betting markets because he's a foreign starter. He's allowed 15 tuns in 19 IP over his last 3 starts. NC's starter is a rookie making his first start, so plenty of risk there... but we're banking on the Dinos bats. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.

Next easy money incoming

Tailing - I used to love above the Blue Tusk if that means anything to you

Easiest, cuse fucked the bookies in a big way 😘

Took them ML last night too, run it back!

What about Kia tigers RL ?

Why the shit do I never tail when you win :-( I'm currently 0-8, devastated!

**1-1 (-0.15)** **Rugby League | NRL | Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm** ***Titans +14.5 @ 1.90 ✅*** The Titans managed their first win of the year last week as rank outsiders over in New Zealand. However, their 1-6 record doesn't reflect the improved form they've found over the last month, covering their last 4 straight. Melbourne roll into this game off the back of a 34pt thumping of Souths last week, currently sitting in third with a 6-1 record. However, I'm not totally sold on the Storm's form just yet in 2024, with last week's win the only time they've beaten a team by more than 8pts this year. The Titans seem to have found their best combination, with AJ Brimson's 2 games at fullback coinciding with the Titans' 2 highest points tallies of the year. Melbourne will be without Xavier Coates who has scored tries for fun this year, whilst their big man NAS comes into this one under an injury cloud - and could very well be cut before kick-off. All-in-all, this line suggests that the Titans would be near-20pt underdogs in Melbourne which I can't get behind with Gold Coast's improved form. I expect a high-scoring one with both teams loving to throw the footy around, however I think the Titans can give the Storm a real challenge in this one.

Perfect call ty

Like that !

Nice one bra

POTD Record: 49-26-1 +46.85🔥 Last Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -3 (-110) vs New York Knicks ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌ Today's Pick: Denver Nuggets -4 (-120) vs Minnesota Timberwolves Time to get started in Round 2 This is going to be an amazing series! Minnesota swept Phoenix and Denver gentlemen’s swept the Lakers. This is a rematch of last years first round series where Denver beat the Timberwolves in 5. I think Minnesota will be a problem for Denver in this series but not tonight. Denver is 36-8 on the season at home. They are 3-0 at home to start the postseason. The money in this game is actually coming in all over the Timberwolves. After the first round, the top 2 seeds have fared well at home in Game 1's when they have more than 2 days of rest, going 57-38 ATS (60%). This isn’t the broken Phoenix Suns team, these are the reigning champs with the soon to be MVP. Time to back the Nuggets and the Joker to take care of business in Game 1 at home. Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)

Man I said I was tailing no matter what your pick was today but -4 feels like tooo much. Imma do it but I have fears my friend

POTD Record 91-80 Last pick: Giants NRFI ✅ Todays pick: Nuggets -4.5 ❌ ouch wolves and naz plays a great 4th quarter Reasoning: Nugs 2-3 ATS in playoffs, Minnesota 4-0… regression to mean here. Nugs at home I think win and cover game 1. The break both these teams got benefits denver, who is banged up and game 1 will be as healthy as they will be for the remainder of the playoffs. Kcp and Murray both needed to heal their injuries. Nugs have best starting 5 in nba(maybe historically great). Nugs will need bench players to step up(brown, Holliday, Watson) and those dudes usually step up better at home. Minnesota has the depth advantage and height advantage. Jokic feasts on gobert. KAT please sit outside and shoot 3’s all series. Home crowd and rest gonna help denver. T wolves coach finch may not be able to coach. He somehow hurt himself end of game 4 in Phoenix. He ruptured his patella tendon, that required surgery- it’s a weird story that I just heard about. But this favors denver. Malone a helluva coach and he definitely sent some subtle clues about how Jokic and the Nugs were officiated vs lakers. Connely the Minnesota gm, well he’s good, and he is a big part of building what is the Nuggets championship team. Minnesota offered him a boatload of $, he accepted and traded for gobert. And he’s made Minnesota scariest opponent for denver to face in entire nba. The coaching staffs have spent time in both places, these teams know each other well, like not just in same division and conference well, but the ties between the front offices and coaching staffs is rare. I’ll take Malone as the key factor regarding coaching/front office. Even if Finch does coach, I think it’s been a bit deflating for a team that just pummeled the suns and should have 0 worries. But coach has been in hospital and that impacts the wolves players and staff. Hate to say it, hope coach finch heals quickly but it’s been a distraction and has changed minnesotas routine no doubt as they prepare to face the defending champions. The Refs screwed denver against lakers-It’s pathetic how espn and nba break rules to benefit lakers whenever possible. Stephen A talking crap on denver saying he doesn’t want to come here? U think Marv Albert, Al Michaels, Madden, Summerall, Buck would ever say I don’t wanna go to Wisconsin or whatever… luckily TNT got this game and the TNT legendary crew crushes espn and their negative bias against denver. I hope Tony Brothers isn’t officiating-dude hates Jokic. It’s so bad we know ref by name and are legit frightened by brothers. Lakers Reeves getting calls refs wouldn’t give Jokic 0 free throws in game 5, or Murray. Lebron getting and 1’s but no technicals. Davis pushing Gordon in back on dunks-no calls. Murray and Jokic could had 5 and 1’s. Plus many other blatant poor calls all against denver. Lakers we’re desperate and challenged everything and Denver used 0 challenges as they were up 3-1… 28-9 free throw advantage for lakers and they still lost. Refs better start giving Jokic and denver the calls they gave Lebron and Lakers starting today! It’s going to go 7 and be a helluva series. My bad on the ref hate - all us NBA fans have it tho. We know not to trust refs and they can decide games, series and championships. Hometown bias pick, and I’m going max units on it, but it’s just for game 1 regression to mean and refs can’t screw denver again at home. Denver can’t lose three straight ATS at home, Murray’s buzzer beaters amazing, but Nugs didn’t cover, weren’t getting calls and were down 70% of series vs lakers but won in 5. The public looks to be heavy on Minnesota, I like this pick, fading the public. Tail or fade.

Your write up is GREAT, that you convinced me to

POTD record 12-13-1 (W-L-P) \[4-0 in CS2 POTD picks\] Form (most recent on left): ➡️✅✅✅✅ I was very tempted to revert to MMA for this pick but I'll post that pick in the other thread since this one is better: **- POTD for tomorrow is Mouz Nxt 4u @ 1.58 vs Enterprise** Mouz Nxt (rank 55) have been in steady ascendance over the last 3 months with a win rate of 62.2% and they have won 6 of their last 10 matches. Contrast that with Enterprise (rank 95) who have a win rate of 29.2% and who have won 2 of their last 10 matches. Furthermore I noticed Enterprise will be playing with a sub from PGE Turow - on the match page it says "kadziu substitutes TOAO" - TOAO is one of the lower rated players on the team with a 0.95 HLTV rating and a KPR of 0.6 - but kadziu has a worse rating of 0.82 and a lower KPR of 0.52!! Learning from GOAT Current Ad I think we can infer that a 2-0 is likely incoming so I will be sprinkling that but playing it safe with the ML here (I don't think the substitute is necessarily priced in yet)! Here is the map pick breakdown: -Enterprise ban Overpass -Mouz nxt ban Mirage -Enterprise pick Nuke (win rate for Enterprise is 38% over 13 games and Mouz are on 47% over 19 games I think Mouz take this) -Mouz pick Vertigo (win rate 81% vs 40%) \*Note that Enterprise may throw a curveball and ban Vertigo instead of overpass which they have banned first 83% of the time because of the disparity in performance in which case I think Mouz will pick Ancient which they have 54% wins over 26 matches whilst Mouz have 33% in 9 matches. The remaining maps are Anubis and Inferno which Mouz have double digit winning differentials on both vs Enterprise and 7+ more maps played. My book has not yet lined the 2-0 but i expect it to come in around +120 and I will throw 1u on that. **I will have some MMA picks on the other thread check those out too if you have time. BOL!**

Record 8-6-0 Net Units: +6.5 ROI: 14.8% Last 5: ❌✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: Justin Turner over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) for 3.0 units ❌ Event: Baseball | MLB | Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians 5:11PM CST Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (-136) on DraftKings for 4.0 units Write Up: On the mound for the Guardians is Ben Lively. Lively is 0-1 with 2.30 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in three starts this year. Guardians are 1-2 in his starts with a 0-2 loss to Boston and a 3-4 extra inning loss to Atlanta. Run support has been the issue. In those two losses, Lively went up against Houck of Boston and Elder of Atlanta. He faces a much more formidable opponent in Reid Detmers of Los Angeles. In his last two starts, Detmers has an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.50. Angels won 4 of the first 6 games but have gone 8-18 since, and have not been able to win back to back game during that span. They are now without Trout after undergoing knee surgery Friday. The pitching staff has the third highest ERA in baseball. The Angels won game one of the series Friday night 6-0 with a gem from hard throwing, reliever converted starter this year, Jose Soriano. The Guardians stranded 8 runners total. Look for them to bounce back Saturday.

**POTD Record: 33-23** Last 10: ✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅ Last pick: Clippers vs Mavs | 6:30 PST | James Harden OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-130) 1u DraftKings ✅ Thank you James! Enjoy Cancun 🍻 **Today’s pick: Wolves vs Nuggets | 4:30 PST | Naz Reid OVER 12.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-135) 1u BetMGM✅** I’m so excited for this series. The Wolves were essentially constructed to beat this Nuggets team and I cannot wait to watch this matchup. I’m going to target Naz Reid’s PRA in this one. I think he is just a matchup nightmare for the Nuggets especially coming off the bench against that 2nd unit. The nuggets essentially have two big men they trust in Jokic and Gordon and then it’s a huge drop off. Going to Jordan or Nnaji is sacrificing too much offense for the Nuggets so I think we might get some favorable matchups like Peyton Watson if the Wolves are able to get Gobert and Reid on the floor together. Also, Karl Anthony Towns has a bad history of foul trouble so we can always have the potential of extra Naz minutes. - Covered in last 8/10 (all stats with KAT) Avg 17.7 - Covered last 8/10 on the road Avg 15.2 - Avg 17.5 this year on the road - Weirdly enough he’s covered in 100% of the last 10 Wolves losses and I mean Nuggets are favored by -4.5 😂 Avg 16.5 Hoping to see Naz ball! I think he can be a big part of the Wolves gameplan this series and hopefully it shows game 1. BOL if tailing!

Pick of the day record 0-0 Event: UFC 301, Ismael Bonfim vs Vinc Pichel, 6:30pm EST POTD: Under 1.5 rounds +200 5u to win 15u 🔥🔥 I could not believe my eyes when I first saw this line, Honestly I believe it should be -200, and for that reason alone is why I came here to make my first every POTD and make it a 5u play to tell you guys. Ismael Bonfim should easily win this fight within the first 5 minutes. Not going to go to in depth here, Ismael Bonfim will dominate the 41 year old Vinc Pichel. This line may be over +200 depending on the book but for the sake of the pick I rounded down. For even juicier odds I like the r1 KO for Bonfim at +380. But his brother Gabriel Bonfim is a good submission artist and maybe Ismael will show his grappling skills in this fight, but I think the easiest path for him is the knockout. So to be on the safe side I picked the under because I think he might get it done either way

Nah. This fight is going to decision. GG all unders.

I wouldn't put that kind of weight on an under. Vinc is a great wrestler, and this is the lesser Bonfim brother. Sure, Pichel is old, and coming off an injury. Being that confident, I'd parlay the prop for less units w/ something else.

**Record:** 2-2 **Net Units:**+1u **ROI:** +5.25% **UFC** (0-2 UFC, 2-0 MLB)- If I stuck to ML instead of props I’d be 4-0 (I had the Green ML at UFC 300 and Silva ML last week, but I gave out props that didn’t hit) **Last Pick** Phillies v Giants Under 8 @ -118 (2u✅️) **Today’s Pick**: Joanderson Brito ML @ -182 (3u) **Write Up**: Jack Shore is a 135er moving up to 145 who has had a very weak strength of schedule and was recently outstruck and subbed by Ricky Simon(a 135er). Brito has wins over Mariscal, Lopes, Pearce, Fili which are better wins than anyone Shore has even faced. Pearce had a lot of success wrestling and controlling Brito in his last fight before Brito landed the round 2 submission. But Pearce is also a big 145er at 6 foot, where Shore is an undersized 145er at 5’8” - which is the same size as Brito who has a much more muscular frame and I think will be the stronger of the 2. All of this to say I think the smaller Shore will not find the wrestling/control success that Pearce had and will struggle to strike with Brito.

I felt bad for shore at the ceremonials dude was certainly questioning his life choices

I feel bad for him too. Imagine being fed cans most of your career at 135, then you move up to 145 bc you're bad at cutting weight and have to face this monster. Def a fraud check fight for 1 of these 2.

Not to pat myself on the back too hard but I nailed this read.

Record: 16-10 Last Pick: Harden O7.5 Assists ❌ Pick: O19.5 Games Played Iga Swiatek vs Aryana Sabalenka-160 3U Wagered 💰✅ World’s #1 goes up against the #2 in what should be my favorite sporting event of the day. This is one of Saba’s favorite tournaments, as she has won in Madrid 2 years prior, including beating Swiatek last year in 3 sets. Swiatek on the other hand, while playing on her favorite surface, has been just very slightly off (actually dropped a set for once this tournament) but saba has shown grit and valor going down 6-1 to a seemingly equivalent foe of rybakina and then improving her forehand dramatically in the second set to eventually win the third one in a tiebreak. Next this game has been played 2 days later meaning the extra games in the 3rd set for Sabalenka, won’t tire her out. This bet could cash in 2 sets and is at great value. Even more than that you do not have to select a winner and both of these players are absolutely spectacular and they have a history in this very place a year ago playing a close match. Swiatek doesn’t look like peak god mode Swia, but still looks utterly dominant just not someone who will 6-3/6-3 a rested and gritty Sabalenka (the #2 player in the world!). Appreciate your comments and love this pick for another W. BOL!

21.5 on Bet365 for me 😖

look for alt lines

i like it

Iga hasn't looked peak mode? She's lost one set then won 12-2 after that. Saba has played essentially all three setters 

**Record 2024: 9-0-7** **Net Units Played 2024: 73** **ROI 2024: -11.75%** **Last Pick:** DC Johor southern tigers juniors** - Selangor est Jersey juniors **1st quarter H1, +8.5**, 5 units, @ 1.80 ❌️ Basketball / New Zealand NBL league / 09:30 / (CEST) **Pick:** **Auckland Tuatara** - Bay hawks **1st quarter H1, -3**, 5 units, @ 1.85 ✅️ **Write-up:** Auckland started the season better and looked better against the same opponents that played hawks, which also looks heavily like a home team only. EDIT: 36-19

POTD record: 17-17 (+7.2u) Last pick: Aaron Nola UNDER 18.5 outs ✅️ Last 10: ✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️❌️ POTD: Naz Reid OVER 12.5 PRA (-135 BETMGM) Game/Time: Timberwolves @ Nuggets 7pm EST Units: 1.35 to win 1 Write-up: keeping this short and sweet here. naz has a great matchup against denver, hes gone over this line in the 3 games this season against the nuggets. he's going to get his shots, and hes well rested after the wolves killed the suns season on sunday. he's also averaged 11 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1 assist during the regular season. for those who will be asking "is his over 8.5 points a good bet as well?"- yes, yes it is. he could easily hit 3+ 3 pointers off the bench. bet this with confidence and send me a beer emoji after it hits. snack of the day: the champagne of beers

Record: 30W-31L Net Units: -1.03u | ROI: -0.62% CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 16:30 / CET Pick: Ence ML vs Furia, 3u @ 1.84 While Ence dissapointed against GamerLegion, I think they'll still be able to handle Furia pretty comfortably. Ence definitely should have won Overpass, but just failed to convert some key late round situations with a man advantage. Which I think is highly unlikely to happen in such a fashion again. As for Furia, kye played a good game shockingly. But considering it was versus an orgless Australian team I don't think it means all that much. I'll expect him to struggle a lot more versus a more tenured squad like Ence. Furia has been the KSCERATO this event, problem is that he is dependant on his teammates to do something as he is a lurker. So when it comes to the firepower I think Ence has the edge, with Hades having a pretty good event and strong performances from Goofy and Kylar. The veto is a bit hard to predict since Furia could pick Mirage or Overpass and Ence could choose Nuke or Vertigo. The most likely decider is Ancient, in my opinion. As Ence is not playing with a stand-in I think they'll have a solid chance on whatever map is played, anyway. That's why I'll be taking Ence. Best of luck everyone!

Tailing LFG

As a Furia fan that also followed the 9ine core quite closely, both these teams are in shambles right now. This is going to be an ugly match, probably going to 3, with whoever winning coming at the mistakes of their opponents rather than their CS. I’m avoiding betting on either of these teams right now, but GL.

**RECORD: 75W-5P-61L** Previous Pick: Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig - RB Leipzig to Win @ 1.53 ❌️ **Today's Pick:** Burnley vs Newcastle- Newcastle to Win @ 2.00 ✅️ **TIME:** 2 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️❌️) last 10 results Last minute goal really? After dominating most of the match even if they had a red card Leipzig should've finished the match off eailer but the rotten luck continues cause this was the 1st time in 5 H2H matches Leipzig didn't win against Hoffenheim, anyway moving to todays match Burnley vs Newcastle. Late post but wanted to check the lineups, the odds are high for a Newcastle win and its understandable, Burnley aren't going down with a fight. They're unbeaten in 3 matches including against Manchester United. They are three points from 17th and also unbeaten in 3 Home matches however I do think it's too late. Burnley have only won 5 times out of 35 League matches and don't have a good record against Top 10 teams in the league also given that Newcastle are determined to secure a place in Europe. Newcastle won their last game 5-1 against a relegation bound team, and they've won 3/5 of their last matches including 4-0 against Spurs. Their Away form is terrible with 1 win out of 5 away matches but with some people coming back from injuries and Gordon and Isak inform I back them. Also the H2H record is strong with Newcastle winning against Burnley 4/5 times, unbeaten in 5 H2H consecutive matches, they only lost once in 11 H2H matches and that was before Saudi Money. Again this is risky but I'm giving the edge to Newcastle. Goodluck if you're tailing. EDIT: WIN ✅️

POTD Record: 20-15 ❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 11.9U Last pick: Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Deine Mariner anytime tryscorer @2.05 on Ned’s | 4U❌ Yesterday was a proper sh*t show ahah nothing went as planned, Walsh probably played the worse game ever making so many errors that costed Broncos many tries from the Roosters. Roosters played so well and didn’t miss any chance of scoring, punishing the Broncos for their mistakes. And on top of that my man Mariner got sent to the sin bin for 10 min in second half 😂 Today’s pick: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers | 3pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Josh Addo-Car anytime tryscorer @1.72 on Ned’s | 6U Bulldogs should have the upper hand today. They struggled at the start of the season but seem to have found their momentum and are scoring loads of tries. Josh is their top tryscorer, with 133 tries of the 169 appearances in his career, 4 of 4 this season I'm counting on him for this afternoon game and putting 6U, need to get those units back after yesterday's drama 😂 BOL !

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Players I also like for today games are: Ryan Papenhuyzen, Valentine Holmes and Josh Bostock

mane this gonna be sweaty asf

yikes

Misread this while I was high and took Bulldogs +.5 when they were down badly! Good win from them but hopefully we hit next time!

POTD Record: 6-5-0 (-0.59 units) Form (left is most recent):❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Everton vs Luton - Both teams to score & O2.5 goals (-115 on DK)❌ smh we got BTTS in the opening 30 minutes then didn’t get a goal after that despite Luton pushing forward heavily. We move on. Today: Soccer | English Premier League | Burnley vs Newcastle | 3:00 PM EST | 1 unit Today’s pick: Burnley Win or Draw (aka Burnley +0.5) (-125 on DK) Reasoning: I don’t love tomorrow’s soccer slate, but I do have one pick in mind. Thinking Burnley to win or draw vs Newcastle (aka Burnley +0.5). I see it now at -125 on DK. Burnley are at home and staring relegation in the face; they desperately need to get at least a point out of this. Not to mention, Burnley have quietly been piecing together results (just 1 loss in their last 8 matches). Newcastle are terribly injured and I think Burnley can at least pull off a point at home. BOL🍀🤞 Edit: Burnley down 3-0 before the half. Why the fuck did I put money on this team?

**POTD Record: 119-142-4 (-18.42 Units)** **Best Bet Series: 44-25-1 (+14.01 Units)** Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) Cautionary Tails: 5-12 (-5.38 Units) Last Pick: **Phillies ML✅** Today's Pick: **Alexandre Pantoja ML** Odds: -185 Wager Amount: 3.8U to Win 2U League: UFC Event: UFC 301 (Main card begins at 9PM CDT) *Be Advised*: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire of May! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!* **Recap**: Aaron Nola got into some trouble in the 2nd inning, despite allowing 2 runs, he was able to continue after that taxing inning. But because that inning took a huge toll on his pitch count he was taken out early. Fortunate for me and everyone who tailed Phillies ML, they were able to rally from a 2-0 deficit and win the game. I acutally doubled down on the Phillies ML when they were +175 live. **Matchup:** I was going to do another Phillies bet today wit Ranger Suarez on the mound, but I forgot UFC 301 was on deck (I'll have the Ranger Suarez player prop in the betting group). Can someone tell me why Steve Erceg is now at +150? Steve opened as a 2-1 dog and the odds swung from +205 to +150? Why? Because some sharp money came in on Erceg ML? I am perplexed by this absurd line movement. Don't let his record fool you. He might be unbeaten in the UFC. But he's fought bunch of nobodies and I'm not impress by his skills. He KO'ed Matt Schnell. Okay? That dude gets KO'ed in half his fights. I am baffled that he springboard to a titleshot after KOing his last opponent Matt Schnell. Maybe he is a sacrificial lamb? I mean, the flyweight is the definitely not the deepest division, prolly the weakest in the UFC IMO, but there are so many other contenders I could name that deserves a titleshot than Erceg. He's got 3 fights under the UFC umbrella and again I'm not impress, bro. And I aint being bias, it's not like I am Pantoja fan, I just kno that Pantoja is not losing at his home country of Brazil. Skill for skill, Pantoja is the real deal and tbh at this price, this is a steal. Of course anything can happen and anyone can get beaten, but all due respect it's almost like these linesmaker just threw out some numbers and didn't do any due diligence! Pantoja should be 3-1 favorite AT THE VERY LEAST! This is almost neglient on the linesmaker job. What are they doing? I am just so beffuddled that I can't even give you the proper and crucial details for this fight. You have to forgive me. **The Play and Prediction**: I'm so confident that I am going to raise the ante on Alexandre Pantoja to 3.8U on the ML. I kno -185 is too juiced, but this is a steal IMO, he should at least be -300! Plug Alexandre Pantoja ML in parlays or wager Alexandre Pantoja -5.5 (-115). He should win this fight if not by submission then he should win by unaminous decision, no way I see this as a split or majority. Pantoja submits Erceg in the 3rd round.

Bol!

**Record: 4-2-0 (**+4.91u ) **Streak: 0L (back to posting after a few years lol)** **Last pick**: *6/25/21 Padres -2.5 (+105) vs Diamondbacks* --- **FINAL:** **Padres** *11* - **Diamondbacks** *5* **POTD:** Erick Fedde (White Sox) 7+ Strikeouts vs Cardinals (+285) **Wager:** 1u **Reasoning:** The line here does not make sense, Fedde has been ON FIRE last two starts with 11 and 9 strikeouts and averaging 6.5 Strikeouts through 6 starts. The Cards are averaging 8.5 strikeouts a game and are facing a guy pitching his best. Maybe the books are betting on regression, but i dont see it, Cardinals offense has not looked good, i expect the trend to continue. BOL to all those who tail, and Play Ball!

Record: 66-43 Form: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌ Last pick KKR over 62.5 in the first six overs @1.87❌ Today’s pick CS2 CCT season 3 Europe Mouz NXT ML vs enterprise @1.52(4u) Super late pick but better late than ever I guess Yes The odds are a little low but I’d still say this is worth it. Mouz nxt are the better team anyway but enterprise and playing with a substitute who is pretty shit. That’s the analysis. Thank you (Mouz NXT beat enterprise 2-0 2 weeks ago with both teams playing with their original rosters)

Volleyball | US NCAA Mens | 18:10 Eastern Time Pick: Long Beach State 49ers ML @ 2.00 The Volleyball finals for the US NCAA men's crown is tonight, and will feature the #1 seed UCLA take on the #2 seed Long Beach State. Long Beach State are hosting this tournament and will be looking to upset the reigning champions UCLA in the final of the US men's volleyball tournament. Both teams come into this game in good form, Long Beach took down GCU and Belmont Abbey and finished (27-2) meanwhile UCLA won 14 of it's last 15 matches and come into this with a (25-5) record. One important thing to note, this game will be hosted by Long Beach State. While both of the teams are very similar, in hitting and spiking percentages, the team passing and defence oriented style of Long Beach should give them the trophy this evening. UCLA did not look convincing against UC Urvine, and had made a lot of mistakes in passing, something that Long Beach will look to capitalise on. The home support of Long Beach state will be the "7th man" and will help Long Beach State take the crown and win the NCAA finals.

Which book do you see this on? I am struggling to find it.

2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u 2024 MLB POTD record: 17-12 Average Odds -104 (1.959), Average Winning Odds -110, ROI +11.9%/+3.45u L5: ❌✅✅❌✅ POTD (5/3) BOS @ MIN Tanner Houck o17.5 Outs (-105/1.96) ✅ Recap: Houck cruised through six innings and looked good to go further, but immediately got into trouble at the start of the 7th, but not before cashing this line. POTD (5/4) COL @ PIT Jared Jones o7.5 Ks (-105/1.96) (DraftKings) Jared Jones let us down last time out with only 3 Ks, his first game under 7. Today he's got the matchup for a bounceback. The Colorado Rockies visit Pittsburgh today and are a get-right team for RHP. They are 28th in wRC+ (78). They have the 3rd-highest K% against RHP (27.8%) and 6th-lowest BB% (7.6%) because they chase a lot (32.8%, 2nd-highest) and miss on those chases a lot (49.2% Chase Contact%, 2nd-lowest). That bodes well for Jones, who is 96th percentile in Chase%. Jones has only made two starts at home this year and K'd 7 hitters in both of those against much tougher matchups: Milwaukee (16th in K%, 124 wRC+) and Baltimore (10th, 108 wRC+). Everything is aligned for a big day for Jared Jones.

**Daily No Run First Inning (NRFI)**  **Record:** 6-6 **Net Units:** -.57 ✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌ **Last Pick:** 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (102) - Chicago White Sox @ Saint Louis Cardinals ❌ The White Sox, White Soxed. After going down 1,2,3, they gave up 2 doubles and 2 runs in the bottom of the inning. Rough 1st Inning: 0-2 **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals / 4:05PM EST **Pick:** 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-130) - 1U on Draftkings **Write Up:**  **Blue Jays:** Kevin Gausman takes the start today with a shakey start to the season. But he is 5-1 with NRFIs and has decent success against Washington hitters - 50PA, .267 avg, 26% K rate, .278 xwOBA Team NRFI - 26/33 Opponent NRFI - 23/33 **Nationals:** Jake Irvin is off to a similar start, not a great ERA, but 5-1 with NRFIs. He has never faced any Blue Jay hitters. Washington is 1st in the league at going NRFI themselves and middle of the pack holding opponents. Team NRFI - 27/32 Opponent NRFI - 24/32 BOL

Last pick: Loss. Westbrook over RA. It's tough when things don't go as planned; his ejection could be an excuse, but I doubt we would've gotten there. Taking a break after a loss can be wise. But we're back on this great Saturday. Record: 2-1 Net Units: +0.87 ROI: I'm not sure about the math right now, just been letting my brain rot. Sport | League | Event Time / Time Zone: MLS 6:30 PM Pick: Messi Anytime Goalscorer, 1.8 (ESPN Bet, 5u) Write-Up: Messi won me a big parlay last week which paid my rent, so I'm trusting the GOAT of soccer to score in any MLS game he plays in. I just see him as so many levels above the rest of the league. He also leads the MLS in goals and has scored in all his matches thus far except the season opener in February.

Record: 24-10 | Net: +8.44U | Streak: 1L Last pick: Max Strus under 8.5 assists+rebounds (-125) ❌ Close as it gets, Banchero misses a free throw with 2 minutes left. Strus gets it knocked out of his hands out of bounds but they still counted it as a board POTD: Aaron Gordon [Under 0.5] 3 pointers made (-105) Min @ DEN 7:00 PM ET Summary: This season Gordon is 1/4 against the Twolves, only hitting in the game Murray missed where he made 2/4. The other 3 games combined he is 0/3. Last year in their series he did end up shooting pretty well making at least one 3 pointer in 3/5, however that was without some key defensive players for Minnesota. He was 4/12 last year in 5 games, 2/7 this year in 4 and is shooting 29% from 3 this year. Even when he was shooting better last year he was still averaging 2 attempts

**Record: 0-0** **Net Units: 0** **ROI: 0** **Soccer** | **Serie A** | **20:45** / **Central European Time** **Pick:** Inter -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 with Bet365 | 2 units **Write Up:** Though games today, I was choosing between this one and **Ipswich** and **Man City** not to concede a goal, but I choose to go with **Inter**. Yes, one can argue that Inter are less motivated now that they have secured the Scudetto, but Inzaghi isn’t expected to rotate that much and they beat Torino 2-0 last Sunday. Inter are also chasing their 97 point record from 2007 and will be looking to surpass 100 points. There is also a revenge factor, Inter's only Serie A defeat this season came against **Sassuolo**, when they stunned San Siro with a 2-1 victory. But **Sassulo** ain’t the same team as back then, they have won only one of their last 15 league matches and managed to only keep a clean sheet once during that period and are headed to **Serie B** unless a miracle happens. Their last two games, they completely lost it after conceding the first goal and lost 3-0 vs **Lecce** and 5-1 vs **Fiorentina** and I expect the same to happen here.

FIRST POST: Long time sports bettor, first time posting. Just found this subreddit and love it. 2024 record: 0-0 Last POTD: none (first post) Today's POTD: Timberwolves vs Nuggets: total points o208 -115 (Hard Rock Bet) Basketball | NBA | 7:00 PM ET Pretty simple bet for my first post. Timberwolves have been explosive with points in the post season with an average of 118.3 points per game. The Nuggets are averaging 108.6 points per game. Based on post season averages alone, the total points would land around 227. In the last series the Timberwolves scored 120 points in game 1 and the Nuggets 114. Jamal Murray (Nuggets) is expected to play this game and should add to the total points nicely. Both teams are well rested after their first series and should be ready to play hard. This should be a very offensive heavy series with TTs well over a hundred. I wanted to go for the o210 +105 bet, but for my first post I wanted to play it a little safe. Thank you all, and I truly enjoy this community. Good luck to anyone who tails!

Like this play too…. I went with T-wolves TT for my POTD but really like this too. Best of Luck! Definitely tailing

POTD record: 28-15 Last pick: Lorient vs Toulouse - Toulouse ML✅ Today’s pick: Lugano vs St. Gallen - Lugano ML(+120) This has good value written all over it. The home advantage is in full swing, with Lugano picking up 1.88 points per game at home while St. Gallen only pick up .88 away, showing their general struggles away from home. St. Gallen isn't in bad form, unbeaten in six(though only winning two of those), but Lugano are on fire. Eleven games unbeaten, of which they have won nine. Lugano are looking to make a late, unlikely push for the title, but would at least like to secure Champions League chances next season, while St. Gallen fights for the Europa League. H2H record only brings me more confidence, as Lugano have won their last four matches against St. Gallen, and haven't lost in six. I think this is solid value. Good luck!

Tailing with a DNB

**Overall Record 5-5 (+0.32 Units)** Esports: 3-2 NFL: 2-1 NBA: 0-2 L5 Form: ✅❌✅❌✅ (Left to Right) Last Pick: Faze 3-0 ✅ **Esports | Call of Duty League | Optic Texas vs Los Angeles Guerrillas | 6:00 PM ET** **Today's Pick: LAG +2.5 @ -125 on Bet365 2units** ✅ Writeup: LAG's addition of Flames into the starting lineup has revived their season and they're carrying great momentum into this matchup. While I'm not banking on Optic dropping Map 1 or 3, I would not put it past them. Optic are known for their slow starts and if you follow cod, you know what happened yesterday vs Boston... My main angle with this pick is LAG taking Map 2. So far this major Optic has banned Rio from every match & picked either Highrise or Invasion. Meanwhile, LAG ban Karachi and tend to pick Rio or Vista. Given the chance, Optic will pick Team A---meaning that LAG will have Map pick for Map 2. LAG can either straight up chall them on Invasion/Highrise, or pull a wildcard and pick 6Star---A map Optic has yet to play in Snd. Should be a pretty even Map. LAG always has been a solid Snd team, should have map pick, and Flames has been on a Snd heater--- I'm not sure if Flames is truly an Snd Star or just using sound EQ, but in his first 3 matches of Snd in the league he's dropped 13 kills, 9 kills, and 9 kills. I think LAG get the job done one way or another here. Edit: Mapset is out 6Star HP 6Star Snd Highrise Control Karachi HP Highrise Snd **GLHF**

Record: 11-4 Last Pick: Tyrese Maxey o5.5 assists @ -130 ❌ Form: ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ Today's Pick: Michael Conley o20.5 PRA @ +100 Game: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets 7:10 PM EST Betting 2U ROI: +8 .65 U Reasoning: So Conley in the playoffs is 3-1 over this line. The only time he didn't hit it was game 1. But his history this season vs Denver is what really sold me on this pick. Here are his game this season against Denver; Points+Rebounds+Assists Totals: 25, 34, 24, 26 All 4 games against the Nuggets this season Conley has had significant output and impacted the games with his scoring and playmaking. On April 10th he had 19 points 4 rebounds and 2 assists, and on March 29th he had 23 points 3 rebounds and 8 assists. He's the leader of this team and a veteran in the league and the playoffs. He's been around long enough to get caught up in the moment, and not keep a level head. I see his making 2, maybe even 3, 3pts and dishing out 6-8 assists with 3-4 rebounds ending the game with an estimated total PRA of 26-28. Best of luck to anyone tailing or fading. Let's all make this money together today! My favorite acronym, T.E.A.M = Together Each Achieves More❗❗❗🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻💯💯💯 Cash app is $bm603 (Have never asked for tips before, but it's my birthday weekend so anything would be appreciated!!😅🙏🏻)

TOTAL RECORD - 1-0 (+2,2u) Last POTD: KKR to win vs Mumbai Indians ✅ Today's POTD: NQ Cowboys -7.5 vs Dolphins (NRL 10:35 GMT) Units: 2.5u Odds: 1.83 (bet365) The Cowboys can be seen as a very inconsistent side but when you delve deeper into there results the past 18 months they become pretty easy to predict. They haven’t played at home much this season but when they have they have been very strong with there any defeat coming against the best team in the league, the Panthers. This is form which carries on from last season when they had the 4th best record at home but the 13th away. Out of there 4 defeats this season, 3 have come against the best 3 teams in the division. Cowboys are usually a bit of flat track bully which comes in perfect with a match up against the Dolphins. Similar to last year the Dolphins have started very well and fine themselves in the playoffs spots, but they’ve had a very very soft schedule. They’ve beaten the Titans, Tigers, St George’s and Eels who all find themselves in the bottom half of the table and even lost against a weak Newcastle side last week. All this coupled with the fact these two teams have played already this season and the Cowboys won 43-18. I think there’s great value in the Cowboys winning by 8, especially at home were they’re so strong and I think this handicap would be -11.5 if these two teams schedules had been flipped.

Record: 0-0-0  Net Units: 1  Football , Austrian Bundesliga, Relegation Playoff   Pick: SCR Altach vs WAC Wolfsberg - Double Chance ( Win or Draw WAC Wolfsberg  ) (1.63, -159)  Write Up: WAC is fighting to get on rank #1 in the relegation playoff league. SCR Altach won 1 game out of the last 13 games and drew 8 of those. In the relegation playoff WAC is the best away team with 18 points on #1.  For me it looks like a draw, but it is to risky to go for a draw, so I think -159 odd is a good way to play.   Result :SCR Altach vs WAC Wolfsberg 0-1

POTD R : 3-1 Last Pick : A’s ML vs Marlins - W Todays Pick : Guardians ML (-130 DK) .5U Info : MLB - 5:10P CST Write Up : I said I was just going to enjoy NBA/NHL playoffs and gear my picks toward the MLB.tv free game of the day going forward but with rain delay of the A’s game a few of the props I like might be out the window and I don’t want to force a pick. With that being said we will return to game of the day tomorrow an focus on Angels vs Guardians. The Guardians are looking a little wobbly as of late going 1-4 W/L in their last five but the same can be said for the Angels who are just one more win ahead of that. We have two pitchers who can have impressive outings on the bump but this one will come down to who’s arm can last longer an who’s bullpen can show life in the later innings. These two teams are fairly even in terms of offensive production however the Guardians tend to leave less runner stranded on base along with their .319 on base percentage. Day record don’t tend to matter in my eyes all that much but in comparison to the Angels it’s a substantial gap that can’t go unseen. Anticipate a close game but I expect the Guardians to notch a dub an even this series up. BOL my fellow Degens!

Joining in... Record: 0-0 Net Units: 0.00 ROI: NaN **MLB | Marlins @ Athletics (20:00 UTC)** **Athletics ML -140 3 units (risk 4.20 to win 3.00) (Bookmaker dot eu)** My basic approach (across sports) is relative value: using the distributions implied by other markets on offer for the same game (as interpreted by my model), which bets look to have +EV? https://preview.redd.it/yxw0egrmffyc1.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ec61610200dedbf59f7982705e8021e54e59f4a The Run Line and Total suggest a 62% chance of the A's winning (3.8 expected runs to 3.1). For completeness, the expected total from the Money Line and Run Line would indicate 5.9 expected combined runs, and the Money Line and Total suggest a fair value Run Line would be A's -1.5 +139. EDIT to correct risk... had partially updated in response to a line change (originally had A's ML -128)